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AUGUST - 2010
A strong order backlog at the beginning of the quarter will translate into healthy revenue growth for engineering and capital goods companies. IIP growth of 16.7% in January 2010 reflects an improving economic environment, which will translate into better earnings for players. With the industrial capex reviving, companies will experience an improvement in order inflow going forward.
INDIA'S ENGINEERING INDUSTRY IS HIGHLY COMPETITIVE WITH A NUMBER OF PLAYERS IN EACH SEGMENT. THE ENGINEERING SECTOR HAS BEEN GROWING, DRIVEN BY GROWTH IN END USER:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Engineering sector Heavy Engineering Light engineering Transport Capital goods Other machinery/Equipment Low-tech items like castings, forgings and Fasteners Highly sophisticated Microprocessor-based
Process control industries and the new projects being taken up in the power, railways, infrastructure development, and private sector investments fields amongst others. The industry attracted FDI inflows of US$ 1,196.7 million from August 1991-July 2006 India's exports of engineering goods are valued at US$ 27 billion during 2006-07 which represents a 6 per cent growth over the exports for 2005-06 (US$ 20 billion).
The engineering sector accounted for 14 per cent of the country's total exports. It is also noteworthy that 40 per cent of India's engineering export is from the small and medium enterprises (SME) sector. According to Engineering Exports Promotion Council (EEPC), engineering exports could touch US$ 30 billion by 2008-09. In such a scenario, India, driven by the engineering sector, will emerge as a key global manufacturing hub Industry demand is driven by investments in core sectors. The demand from this sector depends largely on GDP growth, which in turn is a function of expenditure in core segments like power, railways, and infrastructure development, private sector investments, and the speed at which projects are implemented. The power sector is the largest contributor to the revenues of engineering companies. Engineering majors like Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) and ABB Limited derive a significant chunk of their revenues (69 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively) through the supply of equipment to the power sector.
Infrastructure is another key area of operation. Larsen & Toubro Limited, for example, garners around 35 per cent of its sales from infrastructure activities like engineering, design and construction of industrial projects, social and physical projects like housing, hospitals, information technology (IT) parks, expressways, bridges, ports, and Water/effluent treatment projects. The industrial segment contributes to around 30 per cent of the total revenues of the engineering sector. While India’s engineering industry has capabilities in manufacturing the range of machinery required by the different user sectors, the rapid rise in demand has led to a large part of the machinery requirements being met through imports. This indicates the size of opportunity for investment in the engineering and capital goods sector in India.
000 MW in the tenth (2002-07) and eleventh 2007-12) five-year plans. power. Drivers like power projects. Switchgear. The five representative segments identified are as follows: 1 2 3 4 5 Textile Machinery Machine Tools Electrical and Power Equipment which includes Boilers. oil & gas. Cooling Towers. We have adopted "use-based" classification to segment Capital Goods. the inter-meeting hike was neither a surprise nor a one-off event. are likely to tighten going forward. refinery. used as plant and machinery for agricultural. Liquidity conditions therefore.market size of the segment and its user industry. in our view. The framework below captures some of the key factors that are contributing to domestic and international demand for engineering goods from India. Emerging trends such as outsourcing of engineering services can provide new opportunities for quantum . the potential are high for the engineering majors. with the Government clearing the blueprint for adding 100. and IIP weightage of the segment. durable (economic asset life ³ 3 years). CAPITAL GOODS: MIXED PERFORMANCE The Engineering sector’s future outlook is promising. while reasonably benign today (although already past their peak). Turbines. we have shortlisted five most representative segments based on . That will matter for a market where an ambitious forward earnings yield ranks much below the prevailing bond yields. Current announced budget represented an opportunity missed for implementation of crucial structural reforms while leaving the central bank even more behind the curve as far as monetary policy is concerned. industrial and commercial (transportation etc. Transformers. As export markets open up. Diesel Engines. Restructuring of the state electricity boards in different states. consumer durables are driving growth in the engineering industry.) purpose in production/ service delivery process". The Indian engineering industry has been witnessing significant level of capability enhancement over the years. currency strength saw the market outperform in USD. Power sector contributes the largest to the engineering companies’ revenues. steel. Motors and Generators. Major players in this sector like ABB and BHEL derive 60 per cent and 69 per cent of their revenues from supplying equipments to the power sector. other infrastructure development activities. CLASSIFICATION AND SELECTION: Capital Goods has been defined for the purpose of this study as any "product/ equipment of high value. automotive. Furnaces and Heat Exchangers INDIAN MARKET: The Indian market underperformed over 1Q10 in local currency terms. Earthmoving and Construction Equipment Process Plant Equipment which includes Pressure Vessels. However. Going forward. industrial growth and favorable policy regulations will drive growth in manufacturing. CAPITAL GOODS DEFINITION.GROWING DEMAND Capacity creation and transformation in sectors such as infrastructure. From the list of classified segments. this will help India develop a strong presence in global engineering exports. growth of private sector players and focus on capacity creation have driven growth in the power sector. mining. Thus.
product improvement. maintenance and . Engineering and design services such as new product designing.growth.
the problems associated with water projects in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh continued forcing the players to go slow. Thus the PBT was higher by 7% to Rs 6262 crore. BHEL secured a single largest Rs6. RPCL is a joint venture (JV) company of Karnataka Power Corp (KPCL) and BHEL. The overseas market including Middle East is still subdued for the company. transformers. But spike in provision for taxation by 29% to Rs 2485 crore transformed 7% rise in PBT to 4% fall in the net profit to Rs 3777 crore. India’s engineering sector has significant potential for future growth.600MW (2x800MW) supercritical thermal power project in Karnataka from Raichur Power Corporation (RPCL). But the electrical equipment (including conductors. the industry is witnessing intensified competition especially in power equipment sector. Significantly. While order execution and order book are positive factors. . which has been set up to build. Operating margin contracted by 60 basis points (bps) to 14. During 1QFY2011. The players catering to power generation sector continued their strong growth momentum. this is the first order for a power project.designing manufacturing systems are increasingly getting outsourced to countries like India and China. The other income was higher by 40% to Rs 843 crore. The company that has concluded the wage settlement during the fourth quarter ended March 2010 has incurred an additional cost of Rs 338. own and operate thermal power plants with supercritical parameters in Karnataka.65 crore and at net-profit level it was even better with a growth rate of 42% to Rs 1909. BHEL has registered 29% growth in revenue to Rs 13944. which coupled with volatile commodity prices added pressure on margins.7% thus limiting the growth at operating profit level to 7% to Rs 6528 crore. The aggregate sale of the 19 companies that forms part of BSE Capital Goods Index was higher by 11% to Rs 44350 crore. Performance of Capital goods players for the quarter ended March 2010 had been mixed. their performance depends largely on the quality and diversity of the order book.16 crore over and above the provision for arrears pending wage settlement due to short fall. KEY DEVELOPMENTS: Most of the index constituents reported subdued performance. As regards construction players. bagged by BHEL through a JV. Generally the execution of construction projects though have improved during the quarter. the interest cost was higher by 22% to Rs 518 crore and the depreciation cost was lower by 37% to Rs 591 crore.300cr mega contract for 1. Still the company has seen improvement in execution especially the domestic orders driving the revenue as well as profits growth.58 crore. Strong bottom-line growth despite incremental expense towards wage settlement etc was largely on account of strong growth in revenues. in manufacturing as well as services. Similarly the company has also provided Rs 453. insulators) sector continues to be faced with pressure on realization and margin on the back of surplus capacity and delay in order placement etc. Still the aggregates cover it up due to strong performance from both Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and Larsen & Toubro. Larsen & Toubro was forced to go slow on certain project on account of client related reason. savings in input costs and lower tax incidence.10 crore towards pending approval of pension scheme as per new wage settlement. which together account for over 60% of the aggregate sales of the BSE Capital Goods Index.
10 crore. Siemens registered 7% fall in sales to Rs 2226. 2010. and end on August 10. As its standalone sales grew by strong 19% to Rs 1618.09 crore. a consortium of Alstom Holdings and Schneider Electric also made an open offer to buy 20% in Areva T&D India at Rs295/share. These acquisitions will enable Crompton to become a stronger and more comprehensive player in the railways business segment and build capabilities in drives by better leveraging on its existing product portfolio. Strong topline growth was equally backed by 110 bps expansion in operating margin. Crompton Greaves.of an Indian company Nelco on a slump sale basis. during the quarter. Crompton Greaves In continuation with its strategy of inorganic growth. But including the EO items the net profit was higher by 44% to Rs 1438. for energy generation.87 crore (which rose 18%) even after accounting for a higher EO income on account of profit on sale of investment including its stake in Pipavav Shipyard amounting Rs 322.36 crore. However limited by higher tax incidence the net profit (excluding the EO items) eventually was higher by 17% to Rs 1342 crore. Thermax entered into a technology transfer license agreement with Lambion Energy Solutions. Affected by continued project delays and cost overruns Punj Lloyd registered 45% fall in consolidated revenue to Rs 1776. The approximate acquisition value of the abovementioned three businesses is Rs92cr. .21 crore and 46% rise in net profit to 190. Areva SA.89 crore. By virtue of the global takeover. high in moisture content. The technology transfer will provide Thermax with high-efficiency combustion systems for using biomass.75 crore and 25% fall in net profit to Rs 54.47 crore on lower sales of Rs 776. The company had booked full year figures of Associated Transrail. The offer will open on July 22. SCADA and Industrial Drives . which bucked the general trend. Similarly ABB despite 5% jump in sales to Rs 1455. a subsidiary of the company in the quarter ended March 2009. the offer comes after the French nuclear major. the subdued performance of overseas entities have dragged the consolidated performance to some extent.53 crore and a net loss of Rs 300. Notably. has registered 58% jump in its consolidated net profit even while the consolidated sales was higher by modest 2% to Rs 2507.71 crore.63 crore on account of cost overruns and early exit cost from rural electrification projects. Areva T&D has seen 93% fall in net profit to Rs 3.10 crore. leading to netted 12% fall in revenue to Rs 1667.85 crore has registered 92% fall in net profit to Rs 6.2% stake currently being held by the Areva group in its Indian subsidiary. On the other hand the T&D equipment manufacturers. to a consortium of Alstom Holdings and Schneider group of companies in January 2010. which jacked up operating profit up by 38% to Rs 2050.08 crore and 20% fall in net profit to Rs 181. Areva T&D: During the quarter. which are affected by surplus capacity and heightened competition driving down the margin in project business as well as product supply has registered tepid performance.84 crore (down 11%). the new consortium will automatically get a 72.76 crore.79 crore. its global electric transmission and distribution business. Gammon India was affected by higher base.The operational income for the quarter was up 28% to Rs 13585. Crompton Greaves concluded an arrangement for the acquisition of three businesses – Traction Electronics. 2010. a German engineering company with expertise in converting waste to energy. Thermax: During 1QFY2011. agreed to sell its entire equity in Areva T&D Holding SA.
8 2.5 982. BGR Energy: During the quarter. Additionally.5 171. it has entered into technical collaboration agreements with Hitachi Ltd.5 677.5 1.752. for 660MW. 800MW.000MW supercritical steam turbines and generators.3) 181.7 Var.100MW supercritical steam generators (boilers).2 Crompton Greaves Engineers India Thermax Kalpataru Power KEC Intl Elecon Engg (8.931.0) Indo Tech Trans Table: Capital Goods Sector Aggregates MODERATE SHOW AS MARGINS EASE 0903 (3) 40031 15.7 (5.9 170. Japan.4 384. BGR Energy Systems.Besides.3 1003 (3) Sales OPM (%) Operating Profit 44350 14.17 7.0 116. BGR Turbines.099. Germany for 660MW.6 617. the company also received a major turnkey order valued at Rs580cr for a gas-based combined cycle power project from a petrochemical major in India for its aromatic complex in a SEZ. Fig: Income Analysis for FY2009-10(12months) Total Income 5. (%) 11 6528 8 4 3 7370 6104 7 Other Income PBIDT 601 6705 40 10 .4 Operating Profit Net Profit 3.4 456 . entered into technical collaboration agreements with Hitachi Power Europe GmbH. 1.6 141.7 328.0 3.000MW and 1.3 439.309. 800MW and 1. through another majority-owned subsidiary. during the quarter.6 91. through its majority-owned subsidiary. BGR Boilers. 700MW.4 66. 9 2..
. which witnessed slowing down of order inflows. is set to regain its premier position. The power equipment sector.Interest PBDT 5 1 8 6853 5 9 1 424 6281 22 9 Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Cash Profit Net Profit 433 37 6262 2485 4368 3777 5848 1926 4355 3922 7 29 0 -4 Figures in Rs crore. These will add momentum to the index of capital goods. as order inflows are set to rise in the last two years of the current five year plan. Source: Capitaline Databases The demand for the capital goods set to grow at the back of growing industrial activities in the country. near term outlook for the sector is positive. The banks and financial institutions are not in a hurry to hike interest rate in near term despite of RBI's tightening mode. In short.
Feb YTD.3 7.5 29.3 16.08 Inde x 278.1 -594.1 265.7 326.Apr .3 243.4 533.07 Inde x 251.4 336. the sector has its own set of issues.9 396.3 451.2 398.2 7.4 355. Jan .4 348.3 458.8 20.9 27.6 21.7 394.7 20.9 24.6 13.3 317.Table: Index of Industrial Production of Capital Goods: Month 2009 . POWER GENERATION.06 Inde x 209.0 273.0 380.3 372.1 315.2 billion over the next five years in various infrastructure projects.9 0. th Of this.9 22.9 290. there are about 19509 MW of captive power generation capacity connected to the Grid. the capacity addition in the Eleventh five year plan (ending March 2012) would be about 78.2 365.8 225. the cost of setting up power plant ranges from Rs 4.3 30.0 18.6 279.7 314.3 15.1 0. 10.8 % Chg. over the next two decades.7 358.7 GWH. With one rupee spent on generation capacity also entails equal amount of spending in Transmission & Distribution segment this represents huge order opportunity for the capital goods sector from power sector alone.0 356.9 321.8 -6. after the political stability in the country along with the easing liquidity situation and the offshoots of recovery in the global economy.3 13.2 370.5 10.3 2007 .9 283.5 6. -5. in 12 five year plan would be about 100 GWH.0 255.4 0.9 -3.Mar 294.0 470.9 241.8 % Chg.0 16.3 238.1 39.2 11. 12. and n 13 th five year plan about 150 GWH. India's power generation capacity has to significantly scale up to 1200 GW by year 2032.5 21.Feb FY. Source: Central Statistical Organisation The scenario for the Indian Economy in general and that for the capital goods industry in particular has undoubtedly improved to a big extent.6 387.6 9.4 334.8 543.3 18.5 291.10 Inde x Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar LQ.7 294.8 392.2 % Chg.7 9. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION EQUIPMENTS On the back of continued peak power deficit as to meet the needs of economic growth and social commitment of electricity to all by 2012.2 17. Apr . although the capital goods companies catering to the power sector will continue to enjoy a degree of comfort owing to the government's thrust on this core sector.09 Inde x 313. Besides.3 18. Besides.8 406.7 18.3 11.9 0.1 12.9 % Chg. India's investment requirement is estimated at US$ 567. 19.6 389.5 14. 14.5 12.2 239.4 -% Chg. if the country has to sustain a GDP growth of 7%.4 26.1 437.4 576.1 420. which will further surge to 197 GWH in the 14th Five year plan.4 4.9 20.6 10.9 12. Including the investments planned for power sector.3 374.6 331.7 11.6 13. with around 48% of the planned power projects for the eleventh plan already running behind schedule.2 -2008 .0 9.1 382.4 23.4 284.1 55.4 612.4 13.8 301.9 623.0 386.7 281. the infrastructure spend in India is .6 2.0 349.8 4.1 272.41 MW (152 GWH) as of 31 st August 2009.8 397.4 0.7 18.9 11.1 394.9 24.8 273.4 1.0 2006 .9 508.8 17.1 282.2 2005 . Currently.5 to 5.5 6.9 20.3 0.0 10.0 0. the country is accelerating power sector investments.5 438. India's installed power generation capacity is about 152148.0 448. BHEL.7 Index = 100 in 1993-94.2 16.3 0.5 crore per MW.0 18.3 322.0 18. Director – Finance. Currently.5 340.4 44.4 368. But as per C S Verma.7 357.9 22.1 350.6 15.0 17.6 403.
.about 4. which is targeted to be increased to 9% of GDP by 2014.5% of GDP.
construction equipment. BGR Energy. the central transmission utility which spend about Rs 14600 crore in the first 2 years of 11 th five year plan is expected to spend Rs 40000 crore between 2009-2012 in upgrading and strengthening of its transmission network and inter regional transmission grid. As we entering the second half of the 11 th th five- five-year plan this is imminent and that will provide strong order inflow for the industry players facilitating enough business for all.e.07% in 2006-07. The share of thermal power projects out of the planned target in the 11 th and 12 th five year plan being 75-76% the opportunity is huge for the BoP players in the th country. five year plan projects which under construction . cooling towers. Some of the major players in operating in this space of engineering segment are Larsen & Toubro. Sunil Hitech. BALANCE OF PLANT EQUIPMENTS Balance of plant (BoP) is one of the crucial group of equipment/service that makes a power project complete and up for operation. transmission and distribution is Rs 1135083 crore.7% as compared to 15% growth in the previous year on the back of postponement or reduction of procurement. Such huge investments. Ion Exchange. Elecon Engineering. Gammon India. civil works and services etc. At the same time Government of India through RGGVY and APDRP targets to provide electricity to all by 2012 as well as reduce T&D losses.e. Moreover the increase in new capacity across various product segments has resulted in increased competition for a share in the stagnant pie and this has impacted the prices. The examples of Balance of plant equipments/services are those such as coal and ash handling systems. is set to bring enormous opportunities for the Indian capital goods sector. Players' such as Areva T &D has reported about 1520% drop in prices in transmission segment and about 25-30% in the distribution segment. Mcnally Bharat. Of which the share of generation is Rs 495083 crore. insulators. T&D EQUIPMENT – GLUT IN SUPPLY AFFECTS PRICE REALIZATION IN SHORT-TERM Transmission & Distribution segment which has been one the grey area with long history of neglect (especially in sub transmission and Distribution segment) with inadequate flow of investment leading to high AT & C (aggregate transmission and commercial) losses of 32. The price slump is across all products types. conductors etc has seen strong capacity creation in the recent past. On the back of strong investment under pipeline the heavy electrical equipment manufacturers such as transformers. Order for significant th number of BoP equipments are yet to placed i. orders are yet to placed for 11 coal handling systems out of the total requirement of 68 numbers totally estimated for the 11 (i. water treatment plants. cooling water systems. transmission is Rs 240000 crore and distribution is Rs 400000 crore. The GOI targets to reduce the AT&C losses to 15% at-least in areas under APDRP scheme by 2012. While the main plant equipment such as Boiler. Resultantly the T&D equipment production in the country (according to IEEMA statistics) in 2008-09 came down by 2. Turbine and Generator accounts for 40-50% of the total thermal power plant cost the rest was accounted by BoP equipments. 64215 MW).For instance the aggregate estimated investment in all segments of power sector namely generation. as and when they materialize. TRF etc. Order for main plant equipment for all the 11 other hand the order BOP for all the 11 th Five Year plan projects has been already placed but on the Five Year Plan projects have not fully placed. However the second round of order finalization for T&D equipments pertaining to 11 year plan period projects have not started yet. As the transmission projects linked to the progress of generation projects the electrical equipment procurement has been delayed/ deferred with generation projects behind schedule. With negative growth in infrastructure and industrial segment the competition is surely hotter impacting prices. Power Grid.
6% in April 2010. the infrastructure development was not affected unlike the realty sector. Though the equipment hiring segment that account for the balance of the demand has not picked up yet.Similarly about 10 ash handling system are yet to be ordered out of the total requirement of 69 numbers. Additionally. 2010. there are increased enquiries for construction equipment especially from original users (i.4% in March 2010 and -0. Similarly major part of BoP equipments are yet to be ordered for 12 for commissioning in the 12 th th Five Year Plan period. RBI HIKES POLICY RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS. The increasing generalisation of inflation coupled with a further upward pressure on the price levels as a result of the recent increase in fuel prices (The RBI expects the fuel price hikes to result in an immediate impact of ~1% on the wholesale price index [WPI]) builds a strong case for the central bank to step in to stem inflation as well as anchor inflationary expectations. but now these have been extended by almost a fortnight till July 16. . which was hit hard.6% in May 2010 from 5. over the months. EXTENDS TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY BOOSTING MEASURES As part of its calibrated exit from the stimulus measures announced earlier. The issues relating to model RFQ document and concession agreements etc also added to delay in finalization of roadway and highway projects. that will also expected to follow suit with pickup in construction activity. breaching into double-digit levels to 10. Additionally. Despite economic slowdown. Especially the demand for high tech products such as boom concrete pumps. These were to expire on July 2. With NHAI accelerating award of NH projects the construction activity will further pick the momentum. Projects aggregating about 32000 MW scheduled five year plan is currently under execution. the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised the repo rate and the reverse repo rate by 25 basis points each to 5. no more restricted to food items.e.4% in November 2009. Within infrastructure sector. RATIONALE BEHIND THE INTERIM POLICY RATE HIKES Inflation has been a concern over the past few months.5% and 4% respectively in an interim meeting. 19 of total 145 cooling towers. But the bad news ends there for construction equipment manufacturers. due to the temporary liquidity tightening resulting from the outflows due to 3G/BWA auctions and the advance tax payments. This has affected the demand for construction equipment. The players have indicated that with steady infrastructure demand and marginal pickup in realty sector. The rate hikes are applicable with immediate effect. high capacity batching plants etc has seen some improvement in demand.16% in May 2010 from 9. the RBI had introduced temporary liquidity boosting measures. CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT The demand for construction equipment is correlated to the level of construction activity in the country. 12 of total 69 DM plants etc. 13 of total 117 chimeys. 2010. construction of roadways and highways were impacted primarily due to inordinate delay in awarding highway projects in PPP sector. as depicted by a strong uptick in the non-food manufacturing inflation that is up to 6. Construction service providers) who accounts for about 70-80% of the total demand for construction equipment. the inflation has become more generalised.
Fig1: Foreign investments into India (US $bn) . with foreign investments in India continuing their momentum.LIQUIDITY CONTINUES The visibility also seems to be strengthening gradually. with relatively smooth financial closure of several projects and quite a few companies across sectors having successfully tapped the financial markets.
which is well underway. cre export growth: dit. a revival in exports and an accelerating credit growth. inflation than to boost the economic the RBIgrowth.based on the robust production industrial growth(strong production [IIP] index of econo industrial the RBI had made a series of policy rate cuts as part of Source: SEBI began reading). The RBI had projected a strong gross domestic global 2010. With the economic data pointing towards a recovery. in of Howev had begun reversing its easy monetary er. stimulate the economic 2008 Fig4: Trend in …coupled recovery with From ongoing revival. the wake the financial meltdown. since as my to show signs of stance in a calibrated manner. the aRBI has shifted its focus to curbing its to Source: RBI measures economic growth. product (GDP) growth of 8% for FY2011 thewith an upside bias. December Fig3: Trend in IIP reading: T h t’s thrust on infrastructure development particularly in the power .Fig2: Trend in inflation rates: onwards.
. competition for certain transformers expected exerting pressure quarter. pricing during the Nonetheless. hereby giving Chinese existing power the domestic players respite from the competition. the domestic equipment to like is continue. equipment expected from grid the to new Power players is benefit power that norms mandate the companies to have manufacturing facility in India.sector.
Fig5: Capacity addition (MW)-11th plan (till May 2010) Source: CEA Fig6: Capital Goods component growth .
Overall. is suffering from surplus capacity on account of delay in order placement.Source: Bloomberg Current Infrastructure development is largely on public sector spending. road sector etc. the industry will remain in limelight with lots of domestic order wins in the current quarter. Moreover with increased economic activity the sectors relying on domestic consumption have either revived their investment plans. there is encouraging investment interest on the part of private players especially in power. Though most of the tender based business comes with price escalation clause the ability of the industry player to control the material cost plays crucial role in profitability. despite having strong order book. The momentum is picking up in order book conversion (to sales) ratio. As penultimate year of 11 th five-year plan commenced the order placement activity is expected to pickup auguring well for this segment too. which expanded the capacity in anticipation of huge 11th plan orders. Also. But of late. the players were confronted with execution delays on client side issues. . Further the T&D industry.
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