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Aquacultural Engineering 6 (1987) 209-225

Predicting Night Time Dissolved Oxygen Loss in Prawn Ponds of Hawaii: Part II. A New Method Charles P. Madenjian, Gary L. Rogers and Arlo W. Fast
Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaii, PO Box 1346, Honolulu, Hawaii 96744, USA

ABSTRACT Dissolved oxygen concentration (DO), water temperature and wind speed were monitored overnight at prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) ponds of Amorient Aquafarm Inc. (Kahuku, Oahu) and at Brigham Young University-Hawaii (Laie, Oahu) from June to November 1985. A new model, the whole pond respiration-diffusion (WPRD) model, was developed to predict pond DO at dawn. The two components comprising the model were whole pond respiration and diffusion. Model inputs included a measurement of pond DO and water temperature at dusk, another DO and temperature measurement made several hours after the dusk measurement, and an estimate of the average wind speed for the night. For a lag of 3 h between the dusk and second DO measurement, the mean absolute deviation of the predicted dawn DO from the observed dawn DO was 0.40 mg 02 liter-i (standard error of mean = 0.8 mg 02 liter-1), based on 40 verification trials. The WPRD model performed equally well for both calm nights (wind speed < 0"3 m s -1) and for relatively windy nights (wind speed > 7 m s- i).

INTRODUCTION The ability to predict the dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) at dawn in aquaculture ponds may serve as a valuable tool to the farm manager. Based on the prediction, the farmer can decide whether or not to employ emergency aeration. Consequently, the manager would aerate only when needed and thus reduce the farm operation expenses while at the same time achieving intensive production levels. Despite claims of universal applicability (Boyd et al., 1978; Romaire et al., 1978), the B o y d - R o m a i r e - J o h n s t o n model was not an accurate 209 Aq.aculmral Engineering 0144-8609/87/S03.50-- Elsevier Applied Science Publishers Ltd. England. 1987. Printed in Great Britain

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C. P. Madenjian, G. L. Rogers, A. W. Fast

depiction of the night time DO decline in prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) ponds of Hawaii (Madenjian et al., 1987). Furthermore, the linear extrapolation technique employed by Boyd et al. (1978) was unsuccessful at accurately forecasting dawn DO in Hawaiian prawn ponds. Madenjian et al., (1987) proposed that although the log-linear extrapolation technique yielded substantially more accurate predictions of dawn DO of ponds at Amorient Aquafarm Inc. (Kahuku, Oahu) than the linear extrapolation procedure, the usefulness of the log-linear extrapolation technique would be limited due to insensitivity to wind speed. Some sites in Hawaii, such as Amorient, exhibited a wide range in wind speed (from near 0 to over 10 m s- i at 10 m elevation). Meyer and Brune (1982), through sensitivity analysis of a general simulation model for diurnal oxygen fluctuations in aquaculture ponds, observed that phytoplankton biomass, pond BOD (biological oxygen demand), and wind speed appeared to have the greatest effect on pond DO. The oxygen transfer coefficient is defined as the speed at which oxygen moves through the water column. Meyer and Brune used the empirical relationship established by Banks and Herrera (1977) to estimate the oxygen transfer coefficient (KL, m h- 1) as a function of wind speed (W, m s-a). As wind speed increases, the oxygen transfer coefficient increases many fold. Consequently, a general model for predicting dawn DO for prawn ponds in Hawaii should incorporate a diffusion component based on wind speed. The purpose of this paper was to present a new model for forecasting dawn DO in Hawaiian prawn ponds and to evaluate the model's performance. The data needed to predict the dawn DO using this model included: (1) measurement of pond DO and temperature at dusk and several hours after dusk and (2) an estimate of the average wind speed for the night. The prawn pond manager should be able to obtain the model input information without excessive time, effort, or expense. Thus, the model should serve as a useful tool to the prawn pond manager.

SAMPLING METHODS From June to September 1985, 15 overnight monitoring trips were transacted at Amorient Aquafarm Inc. in Kahuku. During each trip, DO and water temperature were measured at hourly intervals from sunset until after sunrise (until DO started to increase) at two stations (west and east sides of pond) at each of the two ponds monitored. Temperature and DO were measured at the surface (approximately 10 cm below surface) and the bottom (within 10 cm above bottom) at each site using a YSI

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model 54 oxygen meter with a field probe and stirrer. Seven different ponds were monitored (A18, A19, D 11, D 12, D 13, D 17, and D 18). Overnight wind speed data coinciding with the sampling trips at Amorient were furnished by the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute. Wind speed was measured once every 6 min a t a height of 24.4 m (at the Kahuku tower) above the Kahuku flat approximately 2 km from the Amorient ponds. An average wind speed for each sampling night was calculated. The average wind speed was adjusted for a height of 10 m above the pond surface using the following relationship suggested by T. Schroeder (pers. comm., Meteorology Dept., Univ. Hawaii, Honolulu, HI):
-= (1)

vb

where va -- wind velocity at height a, vb= wind velocity at height b, and a and b are the two elevations. The wind velocity was adjusted for a height of 10 m because the relationship of the oxygen transfer coefficient to wind speed was established based on wind speed for a 10 m elevation above pond surface. The model was also tested at an entirely different location: the prawn ponds at the farm operated by Brigham Young University-Hawaii Campus at Laie on Oahu, from October to November 1985. Five sampling trips were undertaken and during each trip, DO and temperature were measured at ponds BY2 and BY3. Two or three stations were sampled at each of the two ponds and surface and bottom measurements were performed. Ponds were sampled at dusk, approximately 3 h after the dusk sampling, and again just prior to (within 30 min) sunrise. An average DO for the pond was arrived at by computing the mean DO for each station (by averaging the surface and bottom observations) and then averaging the mean DO for all the stations sampled. Average pond temperature was calculated in an analogous manner to that for average DO. There was no wind tower close enough to the BYU farm ponds to provide wind speed estimates applicable to the BYU ponds. We monitored wind speed during the sampling nights approximately every hour using a wind turbine meter. Wind speed was measured at an elevation of 2.5 m above the pond surface. Revolutions of the meter wheel were recorded for a measured time period (between 5 and 10 min) and wind speed was calculated using a calibration factor (100 revolutions per 68 s = 0.447 m s-~). The average wind speed was then adjusted for an elevation of 10 m above water level using the same relationship presented above.

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THE MODEL The model developed for predicting night time DO loss in Hawaiian prawn ponds has two components: the whole pond respiration component and the diffusion component. We shall refer to the model as the whole pond respiration-diffusion (or WPRD) model. Both components of the model depended on temperature. We modeled overnight water temperature as an exponential decay function with time:
T=ae bt

(2)

where Tis water temperature (C), tis time (h), and a and b are constants (b was negative). The temperature monitoring data for Amorient indicated that the exponential decay function fits the observed overnight temperature curve well. The a and b constants could be estimated from observations of the pond temperature at dusk and several hours later and from the times at which the temperatures were observed. Substituting for time and temperature in eqn (2) for both the dusk observation and the second observation yielded two equations and two unknowns; thus, a and b could be calculated. In all our applications of the model, water temperature decreased monotonically from dusk to dawn. If temperatures were to somehow increase (perhaps due to filling of the pond with warm water), the relationship between temperature and time described above would not be appropriate. In such a case, perhaps a better relationship would be:
T=a+ b~t

where a and b are constants.

Whole pond respiration


The whole pond respiration rate included all respiration of organisms (including plankton, organisms on sediments, and prawns) and chemical oxidations occurring. We modeled the whole pond respiration rate as an exponential function of temperature: WPR =
c e k T.

(3)

where WPR -- whole pond respiration rate (mg 02 liter- ~h- ~), c= respiration constant (mg 02 liter-~ h-~), k= instantaneous rate of increase of respiration with temperature (C-i), T=water temperature (C). k, the instantaneous rate of increase of respiration with temperature, was estimated for plankton respiration to be 0.0542 from the incubation experi-

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ments (at constant temperature) conducted in earlier studies (Madenjian et aL, 1987). We assumed that this rate of increase would apply to the sediment respiration rate. Our estimate of k for plankton respiration fell within the range of k reported by Edberg and Hofsten (1973) for sediments at temperatures between 15 and 30C. Note that the prawn respiration was also included in the whole pond respiration rate. Considering the density of prawns at the Amorient ponds and the respiration rates reported by Iwai (1976) and Sharp (1976), the prawn contribution to the whole pond respiration rate at the Amorient ponds was relatively unimportant compared to sediment or water respiration. Note that the model may be adjusted in the case of cultured organisms for which there is a strong relationship of respiration to biomass and temperature and whose respiration contributed substantially to the whole pond respiration rate. In such a case, the respiration rate of the cultured organisms could be modeled as a separate subcomponent and the remainder of the whole pond respiration (the plankton and sediment respiration) would be modeled as shown in eqn (3). An estimate of the pond biomass of the cultured organisms would have to be furnished to calculate the forecasts. The approach of modeling the pond respiration rate as a single entity was crude. However, accurate (and easily measured) indicators of plankton respiration rate were not found for Hawaiian prawn ponds (Madenjian et al., 1987). To our knowledge, there was no reliable and easily measured indicator of sediment respiration. We used this simplified approach and evaluated the model performance.
Diffusion

The oxygen transfer coefficient was estimated by substituting the average nightly wind speed (adjusted for elevation of 10 m) in the relationship reported by Banks and Herrera (1977): KL= 0.0036(8.43 W t)5 - 3.67 W + 0.43 W 2) (4)

where KL= oxygen transfer coefficient (m h -~) and W= average nightly wind speed at elevation of 10 m above pond surface (m s- ~). The oxygen transfer coefficient was kept constant for the entire night and corresponded to the night time average of wind speed. The diffusion rate of DO into or out of the pond was a function of the oxygen transfer coefficient and the deviation of the pond DO from the DO level at saturation. The oxygen saturation level for freshwater was a function of water temperature and therefore we designated the saturation level as SAT( T ). The higher the pond DO was above the saturation level, the

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faster the rate of decline in DO due to diffusion towards the saturation level. The lower the pond DO was below saturation, the faster the rate of increase in DO due to diffusion towards the saturation level. The diffusion effect (or re-aeration effect) was described as: KL DIF= ~-~(~SAT(T) - DO)

(5)

where DIF=oxygen diffusion rate (rag 02 liter -1 h-l), KL=oxygen transfer coefficient (m h- 1), PD = average pond depth (m), SAT( T ) = oxygen saturation level (mg 02 liter- ~) at water temperature, T (*C) and DO = dissolved oxygen concentration (rag 02 liter- 1) of pond. Saturation level was found, based on water temperature, using the relationship reported by the American Public Health Association (1983). Average pond depth was estimated to be 0.75 m.
Complete model

Combining the whole pond respiration and diffusion components, we can write the rate of change in pond DO with time (d(DO)/dt), in mg 02 liter- l h- l) as: d(DO) = _ ce~r+KL (SAT(T)-DO) dt PD Using the relationship of temperature as a function of time, we have: d(DO) = - ce~b') + -KL - (SAT(ae b')- DO) dt PD (6)

(7)

We defined the respiration coefficient as a positive number; thus, the negative sign prefixed the whole pond respiration term in eqns (6) and (7) since the whole pond respiration effect was to decrease pond DO.
Model verification

The WPRD model was first verified using the Amorient data. Predictions of the model were produced based on: (1) observations from the east side of the pond only, (2) observations from the west side of the pond only, and (3) average of the observations from the west and east sides of pond (an average for the pond; we will designate this set as the pond set). The surface and bottom DO values were averaged for each of the three sets of data. Forecasts were produced using the dusk DO and

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215

temperature measurements and the DO and temperature measurements conducted several hours after dusk. Note that the respiration coefficient was estimated using a numerical analysis technique (using the secant method, see Conte and de Boor, 1972), such that the prediction curve was fitted through the second DO observation (the DO measurement made several hours after the dusk DO was observed). With the respiration coefficient estimated, the integral of the right-hand side of eqn (7) was then evaluated from dusk to dawn; the value of the integral was added to the dusk DO measurement to yield the forecast of dawn DO:
DOdawn ----DOdusk +

aaw~d(DO)
-

j a~k

dt

dt

(8)

A F O R T R A N computer program, using a Runge-Kutta routine from the IMSL Library (1982), was written to evaluate the integral in eqn (8) and produce the forecasts. In addition to the forecasts of dawn DO in the ponds, hourly predictions were generated for the night time period and the predicted DO curve for overnight decline was compared with the observed DO curve. Statistics for the absolute values of the residuals (the difference between the observed and predicted dawn DO) from the application of the WPRD model to the Amorient data were examined. A t-test for paired comparison was performed on the absolute value of the residuals for the WPRD model and those for the log-linear extrapolation technique (Madenjian et al., 1987). Additionally, the predictions of dawn DO (for Amorient ponds)by the WPRD model were regressed upon the observed dawn DO values to see how close the slope of such a line was close to 1 and how close the intercept was to 0. The net effect of diffusion on the DO decline observed in the Amorient ponds was estimated in the following manner. The diffusion component was removed from the full model (the full model was given b~ eqn (7)) and the dawn DO predictions were generated using the estimate of the respiration coefficient from the full model application. Note that in the full model application to estimate the respiration coefficient the prediction curve was fitted through the observed dawn DO. The overnight net effect of diffusion was defined as the predicted dawn DO for the diffusionless model subtracted from the observed dawn DO. If positive, the net overnight effect of diffusion was an addition of DO to the pond; if negative, the net effect of diffusion was a loss of DO from the pond during the night. For the BYU data, forecasts of dawn DO were based on pond average DO and pond average temperature. Predictions were calculated using

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the o b s e r v e d p o n d D O and t e m p e r a t u r e at dusk and the p o n d D O and t e m p e r a t u r e m e a s u r e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 h later, along with the average nightly wind speed. D a t a w e r e e n t e r e d into the F O R T R A N p r o g r a m , e q n (8) was solved, and the forecasts w e r e c o m p u t e d . Statistics for absolute values of the residual w e r e examined.

RESULTS T h e predictions of the W P R D m o d e l for the A m o r i e n t data i m p r o v e d as the time lag b e t w e e n the d u s k and the s e c o n d D O m e a s u r e m e n t increased (Table 1). A t a lag of 3 h o r greater, the m o d e l predictions

TABLE

Minimum (Min), Maximum (Max), and Mean Absolute Value of the Residuals from the Whole Pond Respiration-Diffusion (WPRD) Model, Using a Dissolved Oxygen Concentration (DO) Measurement at Dusk and a DO Measurement Approximately 3 h After Dusk, Applied to Amorient (Kahuku, Oahu) Data, June to September 1985 (The residual was the observed DO minus the predicted DO ( in mg O~ liter- 1). Lag referred to the number of hours between the time of the DO measurement at dusk and the time of the second DO measurement. DO was measured from both the east and west sides of the pond; pond DO was the average DO of the west and east side observations. Standard error of mean enclosed in parentheses)
Residuals (mg 02 liter- ~) West Lag Min Max Mean Min East Max Mean Min Pond Max Mean

1 2 3 4 5 6

0-00 0-01 0-01 0.01 0.01 0.02

4.46 3.72 3.10 2.08 1.33 0.75

1.12(0.22) 0.66(0-15) 0.39(0.11) 0.37(0.08) 0.27(0.05) 0-20(0.03)

0.07 0.01 0-01 0.07 0.02 0.01

5.28 4.08 3.32 3.72 2.59 1.45

1.55(0-31) 0-03 0.93(0.15) 0.01 0.75(0.15) 0.00 0.68(0.14) 0.01 0.48(0.11) 0 . 0 1 0.34(0-06)0.01

3.25 2.64 1.70 1.74 1.63 0-92

1.01(0.17) 0-68(0.12) 0.41(0-08) 0.33(0.07) 0.28(0.06) 0.19(0.04)

deviated f r o m the actual D O , o n average, by less than 0.5 mg 0 2 liter- t (for p o n d D O based on average of D O m e a s u r e d at east and west stations). C o n s i d e r the case of predicting dawn D O using the A m o r i e n t data based on a dusk D O (and t e m p e r a t u r e ) m e a s u r e m e n t and a D O (and t e m p e r a t u r e ) m e a s u r e m e n t 3 h after the dusk m e a s u r e m e n t was made.

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217

For a lag of 3 h between DO measurements, the WPRD model, based on pond average DO (east and west observations averaged), underestimated the dawn DO in 17 of 30 trials (Table 2). The average absolute difference between the predicted and observed DO was 0"41; the model, at worst, underestimated dawn DO by 1.70 mg 02 liter-1 (pond D12 on 25 July 1985) and at best yielded a prediction that was essentially equal to the observed dawn DO (pond D18 on 14 June 1985) (Tables 1 and 2). The slope of the regression line for predicted DO (based on average pond DO and a 3 h lag in DO observations) as a function of observed DO was not significantly different from 1 (slope-- 1.04, sample t-statistic -- 0.477, p = 0.6196) and the intercept was significantly different from 0 intercept = - 0.44, sample t-statistic = - 1.07, p-- 0.2941). Hence, there was a 1:1 correspondence between predicted and observed dawn DO (no detectable bias in the predictor) (Fig. 1 ). The predictions of the WPRD model, based on pond average DO (averaged east and west observations) and time lag of 3 h between the dusk and second DO observation, were more accurate than that of the log-linear extrapolation procedure, as determined by a t-test for paired comparisons (t=2.67, p-0-0124). The diffusion component evaluated for pond average DO (for lag of 3 h between the dusk and second DO measurements) ranged, in net effect, from a slight overnight loss of 0"28 mg Oz liter-1 to a net overnight gain of 5.10 mg 02 liter -1 (Table 2). On average for the Amorient ponds, the diffusion component was estimated to be responsible for a net overnight gain in DO of 1.27 mg 02 liter- 1. In general, the overnight gain in DO due to diffusion increased with increasing wind speed. Overnight average wind speed adjusted for an elevation of 10 m above the pond surface ranged from 4.65 to 9"73 m s -~ for the sampling periods at Amorient. However, the net diffusion effect was also dependent on the drop in DO between the two DO measurements as well as the DO at dusk. Other factors considered constant, the overnight gain in pond DO, attributable to diffusion, increased as the decline in pond DO between dusk and the time of the second DO observation increased. Other factors considered constant, as DO at dusk decreased, the overnight gain in pond DO due to diffusion increased. The predicted DO curve (average pond DO based on a 3 h lag) for pond D 17 (6 June 1985) and the observed DO curve were we.ll matched; although there were some random fluctuations in the observed curve from the predicted curve (Fig. 2). Deviations from the predicted curve were greatest between 20.00 and 23.00 h. For the BYU study, the average nightly wind speed estimated for an elevation of 10 m above pond surface ranged from approximately 0 to

OO

TABLE 2 Observed and Predicted Dissolved Oxygen Concentration (DO) at Dawn for A m o r i e n t Prawn Ponds (Kahuku, Oahu), June to September 1985 (Predictions were based on whole pond respiration-diffusion (WPRD) model, using a D O measurement at dusk and a second D O measurement approximately 3 h after dusk. D O measurement used was a pond average (DO averaged for observations at east and west sides of pond). The diffusion effect (DE, in mg O , liter- ~) was the overnight loss (denoted by a negative sign) o r gain of D O due to diffusion. The respiration effect (RE, in mg 02 liter- ~)-was the overnight loss of D O due to respiration. Date was for start of sampling period)

.~ "~

~-

Date Dusk 3 h after dusk


6.92 7.97 7-98 8-75 5.91t 8"57 7"68 8"68 4.78 7.40 4"95 6.73 2-61 5-93 3.37 6'81 4.44 6-811 4.24 6"68 4.26 6"62 3.26 6"53 3"85 6"81 5-13 6.83 1-62 5.8 !

Pond Dawn

Wind speed (m s- t)

Measured DO (mg 02 liter- t)

Predicted dawn DO (mg Oe liter- I)

Residual (rag 02 liter- i)

DE

RE

6 June 85 11"55 i 0-36 7.78 10"09 9"83 10-28 8-69 9-37

D 17 D 18

6.83 6"83

9.20 9-16

- 0.03 0"06 1-18 0.27 -0.48 0.00 -0-18 - 0-11 0.99 0.12

1"46 I)-39 0"29 - 0" 15 2"53 0.06 1.44 0"22 1.77 0.35

6-42 2.87 7.40 3"41 6.94 3.34 6"32 3"77 7.85 3.79

8 June 85

D 17 D 18

5.42 5.42

13 June 85

DI7 D 18

7.26 7.26

22 June 85

DI7 D 18

7.76 7.76

27 June 85

DI7 D 18

6.01 6-01

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219

tt",

tg",

t~,

tt",

tt')

220

C. P. Madenfian, G. L. Rogers, A. W. Fast

Y == - 0 . 4 4 R 2 == 0 . 8 6

+ 1.04X

N == 3 0
eO

.~"

of =

C-)~

4
o

OBSERVED DO (rag 02/I)


Fig. I. Predicted vs. observed pond DO (observed pond DO represented an average DO from the east and west stations of the pond) at dawn for Amorient ponds (Kahuku, Oahu), June to September 1985. Predicted dawn DO was based on the whole pond respiration-diffusion (WPRD) model, using a 3 h lag between the dusk and second DO measurement. 10
q~
s

OBSERVED DO DO

E
0 a

t:])

1900

2200

0100

0400

0700

HOUR
Fig. 2. Observed and predicted pond DO (observed pond DO represented an average DO from the east and west stations of the pond) at Amorient pond D 17 (Kahuku, Oahu) during the night beginning on 6 June 1985. Predicted DO was based on the WPRD model, using DO observations at approximately 20.00 and 23.00 h.

5-34 m s-~. The average absolute deviation of the predicted from the observed dawn DO at the BYU ponds was 0.37 mg 02 liter-'; the maximum deviation was 0-79 and the minimum was 0.09 mg 02 liter-' (Table 3). The absolute value of the deviation of the model prediction from the

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221

observed dawn DO ranged from 0.14 to 0.42 during the last two sampling trips to the BYU farm, during which wind speed was below 0.3 m s- ~ (still night, essentially no wind). To illustrate the effect of wind, the decline of DO was simulated for wind speeds of 0 and 10 m s -~. With wind speed set at 10 m s -~, DO at 20.00 h was set to 8.5 mg O~ liter- ~, DO at 06.00 h (dawn) was set to 4.5 mg 02 liter-~, average pond depth was 0-75 m, and temperature was

TABLE 3 Observed and Predicted Dissolved Oxygen Concentration (DO) at Dawn for B Y U Prawn Ponds (Laie, Oahu), October to November 1985 (Predictions were based on whole pond respiration-diffusion (WPRD) model, using a DO measurement at dusk and a second DO measurement made approximately 3 h after dusk. Date is for start of sampling period)

Date

Pond

Wind speed (m s- i)

Measured DO (mg O, liter- 9 Dusk 3 h after Dawn dusk

Predicted Residual dawn DO (rag 02 liter- ~) (mg 02 liter- J)

9 Oct 85 20 Oct 85 30 Oct 85 7 Nov 85 13 Nov 85

BY2 BY3 BY2 BY3 BY2 BY3 BY2 BY3 BY2 BY3

5.34 5.34 1.91 1.91 3.71 3.71 0.20 0.20 0.07 0.07

7.28 12.44 9.62 9.86 9.47 5.62 5.29 10.95 5.77 i0.11

6.84 9.84 8.32 8.37 8.49 5"05 4.64 9.41 5"07 9"00

6.36 6.28 6.31 5.47 6.61 4.99 3.09 6.17 3.16 6.08

6.13 5.49 5.66 5'38 6.75 4.22 3.28 6.03 3-41 6'50

0.22 0.79 0.65 0.09 - 0.14 0-77 - 0.19 0.14 -0.25 - 0.42

28C at 20.00 h and 25C at 06.00 h. Then, using the same respiration constant (see eqn (3)) as for the simulation with wind speed at 10 m s -j, again setting DO at 20.00 h to 8.5 mg 02 liter -~, and again setting water temperature to 28C at 20.00 h and 25C at 06.00 h, the DO decline was simulated using a wind speed of 0 m s-~. The DO decline for the windless night was nearly linear, whereas the DO decline was markedly curved during the windy night (wind speed of 10 m s-~) (Fig. 3). The dawn DO for the windless simulation was 0.98 mg Oz liter- ~; thus the net diffusion effect was 3.52 mg 02 liter-

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%.,

%..
%.

10 m/s

",~, 0
v

. .0...m./.s.....

E
3

0
1900

2200

0100

0400

0700

HOUR
Fig. 3. Simulated DO night time decline in a prawn pond for wind speeds of 0 and 10 m s- t. Whole pond respiration rate and water temperature during the windy night equalled the whole pond respiration rate and water temperature during the windless night. See text for description.

DISCUSSION The WPRD model accurately forecasted dawn DO at Amorient and BYU ponds. The model was validated for a wide range of: whole pond respiration rate, dusk DO, and wind speed. The diffusion component based on wind speed was an important component of the model. The model performed well for the higher wind speeds (greater than 7 m s-t) at the Amorient ponds and performed well for the still nights (wind speed < 0.3 m s- t) at the BYU farm. On average, the forecasts of the WPRD model were relatively accurate for the moderate wind speeds. The three forecasts (based on average pond DO for 3 h span between the two DO measurements) which deviated more than 1 mg 02 liter-1 from the observed pond DO at dawn corresponded to nights of moderate wind speed (average wind speed between 4 and 7 m s -t, for 10 m elevation). Some of the assumptions of the whole pond respiration component (such as the equal and constant instantaneous rates of increase of respiration with temperature for plankton, sediment, and the prawns) may not have been closely adhered to in these cases. Note that the modeling of respiration rate as solely dependent on water temperature was a simplification; whole pond respiration rate may have been changing in response to unaccounted factors. Another explanation may involve the relationship of wind speed with the pond hydro-

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dynamics. Perhaps the pattern of circulation and mixing of water throughout the pond depended on wind speed. The circulation patterns of moderate wind speed may be such that the average pond DO estimated by measuring DO at the sampling stations of the pond may tend to deviate more from the true average pond DO than when wind was strong or weak. The larger the deviation of the measured pond DO from the true pond DO, the greater the chance of relatively large deviation of the predicted DO from the actual pond DO at dawn. Another explanation may be that the unexplained variation in the transfer coefficient about the regression relation established by Banks and Herrera (1977) may be greater for moderate wind speed than for strong or weak winds. The pond water mixing may also have partially explained the reason for increased accuracy of the forecast with increasing time lag between the two DO measurements. Slight discrepancies between the observed average DO and the true average pond DO, due to pond hydrodynamics, would have led to greater error in the forecast of dawn DO as the time span between the two DO observations decreased. Of course, an increase in the time lag corresponded to a decrease in lead time of the forecast. That is, as the time span between the dusk DO observation and the second DO observation increased, we did not have to forecast as far into the future to predict dawn DO. We expected that the further into the future we predicted, the more likely an inaccurate prediction. Another factor to consider was that as the time lag between the two DO measurements increased, we expected a more accurate estimate of the respiration coefficient because the sampling duration increased with increasing time lag. Modeling the pond water mixing would, indeed, be tedious and factors such as wind speed and pond morphometry would have to be considered. Inclusion of pond water mixing in a model to predict dawn DO would almost undoubtedly be impractical for the prawn pond manager. We recommended that the second DO measurement be taken abotit 3 h after the dusk DO of the pond was observed. An even longer wait would yield more accurate forecasts of dawn DO in the ponds. However, the time delay between undertaking the DO measurements must be balanced by the need for time to carry out remedial action in the event of forecasts of a potentially 'dangerously low' dawn DO. If the time lag between the two DO measurements was too long, there would be insufficient time to plan for or apply emergency aeration procedures. We recommended that at least two stations on the pond (such as the east and west sides of the pond) be sampled for DO and temperature, with surface and bottom observations made. On average for the Amor-

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C. P. Madenjian, G. L. Rogers, A. W. Fast

ient ponds, the forecasts based on just the west side of the pond were relatively accurate (even slightly more accurate than forecasts based on the west and east observations averaged). However, it appeared that there would be a greater risk of the dawn DO being substantially underestimated when the forecast is based on just an observation from one sampling station on the pond.

SUMMARY The whole pond respiration-diffusion (WPRD) model yielded accurate predictions of dawn DO at the ponds of Amorient (Kahuku) and the BYU farm (Laie) on Oahu, Hawaii. The model was validated for a wide range of wind speeds from near zero to approximately 10 m s- ~. Apparently, diffusion of oxygen into the ponds at Amorient was an important factor for the night time DO decline observed. Forecasts were based on a measurement of dusk DO and temperature and a determination of pond DO and temperature several hours after dusk. An estimate of the average overnight wind speed (at elevation of 10 m above pond surface) also had to be furnished. We recommended a delay of at least 3 h between the dusk and the second DO determinations. We suspected that sampling DO from at least two different stations on the pond would decrease the chances of a substantial under- or overestimation of dawn DO as compared to a forecast based on DO observed at just one station on the pond. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Gerald Akiyama is gratefully acknowledged for his sage advice on operation and maintenance of the equipment. Dan McKenna of the Meteorology Dept, University of Hawaii, kindly loaned us a wind meter. Darwin Bohnet assisted with field work at the BYU farm site and helped in the manuscript preparation. Thanks to Ken Kamiya, manager of the BYU farm, and Ed McSweeny, manager of the Amorient farm, for their cooperation. This work is a result of research ('Development of Pond Oxygen Management Devices and Predictive Procedures for Increasing Prawn Production' project, A/R-19) sponsored, in part, by the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program under Institutional Grant No. NA81AA-D-00070 from NOAA, Office of Sea Grant, Department of Commerce; and sponsored, in part, by the Aquacultural Development Program of Hawaii (Contract No. 17663). This is Sea Grant publication

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