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Angola
SEB MERCHANT BANKI NG – COUNTRY RI SK ANALYSI S May, 12th 2008

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel : +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : jenny.nordgren@seb.se

The oil boom in combination with recovery from the civil war supports double-digit growth rates.
Elections expected later this year could increase political uncertainty.
Country Risk Analysis
oÉÅçîÉêáåÖ=Ñêçã=íÜêÉÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=çÑ=Åáîáä=ï~ê. Tle economy las grovn rapidIy since a
ceasefire vas aclieved in 2002
foIIoving llree decades of
civiI var. More recenlIy lle
economy las aIso been
supporled by ligl gIobaI
commodily prices.
AccordingIy, reaI GDI grovll
recorded 21.1 ° in 2007 ÷ lle
liglesl grovll rale in lle Sub
Salaran region ÷ leIped by a
slarp increase in oiI and
diamond produclion and
domeslic inveslmenls in
infraslruclure. ReIaliveIy ligll
monelary poIices lave leIped
Ieep lle infIalion rale on a dovnvard lrend from over 100° in 2003 lo 12° Iasl year
despile lle rapid economic expansion. Tle near-lerm oulIooI for reaI grovll is
favourabIe as oulpul increase from nev offslore oiI fieId and conlinued ligl oiI
prices slouId supporl domeslic purclasing pover.

eáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=éêçÇìÅíáçå=Äççëí=ÑáëÅ~ä=~åÇ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=éçëáíáçåëK==pince 2005, lle
fiscaI baIance las been in a significanl surpIus due lo ligl oiI revenues and veaI
impIemenlalion of governmenl capilaI spending. Despile very slrong imporl grovll
lle exlernaI currenl accounl surpIus slayed above 20 ° of GDI in 2007 and foreign
exclange reserves conlinued lo increase lo aImosl USD 10 biIIion, lripIing ils 2005
IeveI. AngoIa las repaid aII arrears lo Iaris cIub credilors and in December Iasl year
sellIed lle oulslanding issue concerning Iale inleresl paymenls.

píêçåÖ=êÉä~íáçåë=íç=`Üáå~=Äìí=äáãáíÉÇ=~ÅÅÉëë=íç=Ççåçê=ëìééçêíK=In recenl years,
Clina las agreed lo provide muIli biIIion doIIar oiI-bacIed Ioans (eslimaled al USD
10-15 biIIions) lo fund infraslruclure deveIopmenl. Besides, lle agreemenl vill lle
Iaris cIub in December las normaIized ils economic and financiaI reIalionslips vill
lle credilors opening up for nev exporl credils. NeverlleIess, reIalions vill lle IMI
remain Iimiled and lle IacI of an IMI-program Iimil access lo donor supporl.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 2008

2
`Ü~ääÉåÖÉë=êÉã~áåK=Tle economy is liglIy oiI-dependenl and lle business cIimale is
reporled lo be among lle veaIesl in lle vorId due lo videspread corruplion and
bureaucracy. Irogress on slrucluraI reform is sIov and lle compeliliveness of
lradilionaI exporl seclors sucl as coffee and lexliIe is lampered by lle slarp reaI
exclange rale apprecialion. Tle aullorilies aIso face major claIIenges lo figll
poverly (around 70° of lle popuIalion sliII Iives on Iess llan US$1/day) and lo slem
separalisl allacIs from lle oiI-ricl encIave of Cabinda sliII occasionaIIy reporled
despile lle Augusl 2006 peace agreemenl granling Cabinda speciaI slalus, bul
reaffirming AngoIa's lerriloriaI inlegrily.

bäÉÅíáçåë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=áå=OMMU=~åÇ=OMMVK== AngoIa las enjoyed a period of suslained
slabiIily since lle end of lle civiI var in 2002 fougll by lle ruIing IopuIar
Movemenl for lle Iiberalion of AngoIa (MIIA) parly and UNITA rebeIs. Tle
counlry is nov preparing for Iong deIayed eIeclions ÷ lle firsl since 1992. Voler
regislralion vas compIeled in Seplember 2007 and in December Iresidenl Dos
Sanlos announced llal lle IegisIalive eIeclion vouId be leId on Seplember 5-6, lo be
foIIoved by lle presidenliaI eIeclion in mid-2009. Tle ruIing MIIA parly is videIy
expecled lo vin lle eIeclions and Dos Sanlos, in pover since 1979, is IiIeIy lo secure
anoller presidenliaI lerm aIllougl le las yel made no formaI slalemenls of running
for Iresidenl. Hovever, anoller poslponemenl of lle eIeclions due lo deIays in lle
preparalions and poIilicaI obslruclion is sliII possibIe.

--˘--

qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=ÄÉåÉÑáíÉÇ=Ñêçã=~=ëìëí~áåÉÇ=Äççã=çÑ=ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉëI=~=ëÜ~êé=
áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=çÑ=çáä=~åÇ=Çá~ãçåÇ=éêçÇìÅíáçåI=~åÇ=~=éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=ëìëí~áåÉÇ=ëí~Äáäáíó=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=
ÉåÇ=çÑ=Åáîáä=ï~êK=qÜáë=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=ä~êÖÉ=ëìêéäìëÉë=áå=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=~åÇ=
Ñáå~åÅá~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=ÄìáäÇJìé=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉëK=píêçåÖ=
êÉä~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=`Üáå~=~åÇ=áãéêçîÉÇ=êÉä~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=m~êáë=ÅäìÄ=ÅêÉÇáíçêë=~äëç=éêçîáÇÉ=
áãéçêí~åí=ëçìêÅÉë=çÑ=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉÅçîÉêó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=íÜçêå=Äó=íÜêÉÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=çÑ=
Åáîáä=ï~êK=kÉ~êJíÉêã=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=çìíäççâ=áë=éçëáíáîÉ=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=åÉï=çÑÑëÜçêÉ=éêçàÉÅíë=
ÅçãáåÖ=çåäáåÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=~=ïÉ~â=ÄìëáåÉëë=Åäáã~íÉI=ïáÇÉëéêÉ~Ç=éçîÉêíó=~åÇ=
ëÉé~ê~íáëí=íÉåÇÉåÅáÉë=áå=íÜÉ=`~ÄáåÇ~JêÉÖáçå=éçëÉ=ãÉÇáìãJíÉêã=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë=~åÇ=~êÉ=
áëëìÉë=íÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=ÅçãÉ=íç=~=ÜÉ~Ç=ÇìêáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ä~íÉê=íÜáë=óÉ~êK=


hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë OMMT
IopuIalion (miIIions) 17
GDI/capila ($) 3870
GDI (clange) 22°
InfIalion 12°
Curr.Acc. baIance/GDI 21°
Reserves/imporls (monlls) 7
Budgel baIance/GDI 8°
Governmenl debl/GDI 18°
Graph: The pentagon shows Turkey's risk worse
than average in all respects including to its
traditional competitor, Brazil, reflecting weaker
liquidity, macro balance and absence of event risk.
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW=
Iilcl: BB-/pos
Moody's: Ba3
S&I: BB-/pos
dê~éÜW Tle penlagon slovs AngoIa's risI profiIe
slrongIy liIled in favour of slorl lerm faclors sucl as
macroeconomic baIance and Iiquidily vliIe resiIience
and informalion is significanlIy veaIer llan average
for aII emerging marIel counlries.
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW=
Iilcl: Nol raled
Moody's: Nol raled
S&I: Nol raled
mÉÉêëW
Nigeria
Kenya
Llliopia
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
Resilience
Liquidity
Information
Absence of event
risk
Macro balance
Average EM Angola
How to read the chart?
Moving out from the center
reduces risk.


SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 2008

3


Key data: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP (bill. US$) 11 14 20 33 47 66 77 85
GDP/capita (US$) 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.9 3.9 4.4 4.7
GDP, real (change) 14.4% 3.4% 16.9% 20.6% 14.3% 22.4% 12.9% 8.0%
Investments/GDP 58% 118% 115% 137% 276% 294% 313% 338%
Budget deficit/GDP -9.0% -6.4% -1.6% 7.4% 14.8% 7.9% 5.3% 4.7%
Govt debt/GDP 77% 63% 60% 41% 24% 18% 16% 17%
CPI inflation (%) 169.7% 108.0% 86.4% 43.5% 24.8% 11.7% 12.0% 10.0%
Money demand (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Stock prices (%change) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Interest rates 97.3 96.1 82.3 67.7 19.5 17.7
Exch. Rate ($) 43.5 74.6 83.5 87.2 80.4 76.7 80.4 85
Trade/GDP (%) 106% 107% 98% 99% 86% 91% 115% 102%
Oil price (Brent)$ 25 29 38 54 65 73 112 106
Billions US $
Export of goods 8.3 9.5 13.5 24.1 31.9 44.1 67.2 63.4
Imports of goods 3.8 5.5 5.8 8.4 8.8 15.9 21.9 23.2
Other: 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Current account -0.2 -0.7 0.7 5.1 10.7 13.8 28.9 22.3
% of GDP -1% -5% 3% 16% 23% 21% 37% 26%
Net FDI 1.6 3.5 1.4 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.2
Loan repayments 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Net other capital flows -2.5 -3.3 -1.5 0.4 -10.4 -13.4 -26.4 -21.4
Balance of payments 0.3 0.7 1.8 5.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6
Reserves 0.4 0.6 1.4 3.2 8.6 9.7 10.8 12.1
Total debt 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.3 11.8 12.0 12.6 13.4
o/w short term debt 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates
Rating history
Fitch Not rated
Moody's Not rated
S&P Not rated
Type of government: Republic, multiparty presidential regime.
Next elections Parliamentary expected in Sept. 2008 and Presidential in mid-2009.
Other:
Latest PC deal 1989
Recent IMF programs None
.2
Ease of Doing Business Rank (1-178)
1
35
72
102
108
167
178
0 50 100 150 200
Singapore
South Africa
Kenya
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Angola
Congo, Dem. Rep.




SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 2008

4


aáëÅä~áãÉê=

`çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉ=

Tle informalion in llis documenl las been compiIed by SLB Merclanl BanIing, a
division villin SIandinavisIa LnsIiIda BanIen AB (pubI) (“SLB¨).

Opinions conlained in llis reporl represenl lle banI's presenl opinion onIy and are
subjecl lo clange villoul nolice. AII informalion conlained in llis reporl las been
compiIed in good faill from sources beIieved lo be reIiabIe. Hovever, no
represenlalion or varranly, expressed or impIied, is made vill respecl lo lle
compIeleness or accuracy of ils conlenls and lle informalion is nol lo be reIied upon
as aullorilalive. Anyone considering laIing aclions based upon lle conlenl of llis
documenl is urged lo base lis or ler inveslmenl decisions upon sucl invesligalions
as le or sle deems necessary. Tlis documenl is being provided as informalion onIy,
and no specific aclions are being soIiciled as a resuIl of il: lo lle exlenl permilled by
Iav, no IiabiIily vlalsoever is accepled for any direcl or consequenliaI Ioss arising
from use of llis documenl or ils conlenls.

SLB is a pubIic company incorporaled in SlocIloIm, Sveden, vill Iimiled IiabiIily. Il
is a parlicipanl al major Nordic and oller Luropean ReguIaled MarIels and
MuIliIaleraI Trading IaciIilies (as veII as some non-Luropean equivaIenl marIels)
for lrading in financiaI inslrumenls, sucl as marIels operaled by NASDAO OMX,
NYSL Luronexl, Iondon SlocI Lxclange, Deulscle B∏rse, Sviss Lxclanges,
Turquoise and Cli-X. SLB is aullorized and reguIaled by IinansinspeIlionen in
Sveden: il is aullorized and subjecl lo Iimiled reguIalion by lle IinanciaI Services
Aullorily for lle conducl of designaled inveslmenl business in lle UK, and is
subjecl lo lle provisions of reIevanl reguIalors in aII oller jurisdiclions vlere SLB
conducls operalions.

SLB Merclanl BanIing. AII riglls reserved.