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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,


10 JUNE 15 JUNE 2013

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold fell around 2 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day drop in over three weeks, as funds dumped bullion after resilient US jobs data suggested the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back its monetary stimulus later this year. The metal posted its first weekly drop in two weeks after Friday's selloff more than erased gains earlier this week. A sharp dollar drop and strong physical demand had lifted gold above $1,400 an ounce for most of this week. For the week, bullion eased 0.3 percent. The United States added 175,000 jobs last month after adding just 149,000 in April, reducing hopes of prolonged stimulus, and that weighed down on gold's inflation-hedge appeal. Spot gold was down 2.1 percent at $1,383.96 an ounce by 2:28 p.m. EDT (1828 GMT), having hit a low of $1,377.29, the lowest since May 28.U.S. Comex gold futures for August delivery settled down $32.80 an ounce at $1,383.00.The nonfarm payrolls report also showed that U.S. unemployment rate ticked a tenth of a point higher to 7.6 percent, but only because more Americans began to hunt for jobs.

Gold falls 2 pc as US jobs data dims stimulus hope.

Oil rose Friday ahead of the release of a key US jobs report that traders will examine for clues to the health of the US economy. Benchmark oil for July delivery was up 36 cents to $95.12 per barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.02 to finish at $94.76 a barrel Thursday. The US Labor Department will release its employment report for May later in the day. A good result is expected, following a drop in jobless claims reported on Thursday. Oil prices were also being supported by a weaker dollar and a bigger-than-expected drop in crude inventories reported by the US Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute for the week ending May 31. Brent crude, a benchmark for many international oil varieties, rose 55 cents to $104.16 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Oil price near $95 ahead of US jobs report.

Copper price movement above $7,500/ton is an opportunity to sell the base metal on likely slowing Chinese consumption over the summer alongside further supply increase through second half of the year. Copper prices are expected to witness a fall in the second quarter of this year on improved supply. The bank favours selling into rally in the base metal. However, in the short term the commodity's prices may go up on recent supply disruptions, fall in scrap supply and short positioning as well as seasonal improvement in Chinese demand. The mining activities at Grasberg, world's second largest copper mine would remain shut till a government enquiry ends on tunnel mishap that killed mine workers. The mine is expected to remain shut for three months. Closure of mine for three months mean loss of 120 Kt of copper production. However, it was subsequently noted by the Indonesian economics minister that the investigation should proceed as quickly as possible, suggesting that the shut-down could be much shorter.

Copper above $7,500/t an opportunity to short.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
June 10, 7:20pm June 11, 5:00pm 7:30pm June 12, 8:00pm 10:30pm 11:30pm June 13, 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 10:30pm June 14, 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:25pm 7:25pm

DESCRIPTION
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks NFIB Small Business Index Wholesale Inventories m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction Federal Budget Balance Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Unemployment Claims Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m Natural Gas Storage 30-y Bond Auction PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Current Account Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

93.4 0.1%

92.1 0.4% -6.3M 1.8I2.7

-110.2B 0.3% 0.4% 354K 0.1% 0.3%

112.9B -0.2% 0.1% 346K -0.5% 0.0% 111B 2.98I2.5

0.1% 0.1% -111B 77.9% 0.3% 84.9

-0.7% 0.1% -110B 77.8% -0.5% 84.5 3.1%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed bullish movement on daily charts but unable to sustain on higher side. It took resistance of 38.2% retracement i.e. 28100 but gave closing below it. Now if it sustain above 28100 then only bullish movement will be expected. On other hand, if it surpasses the lower band of short upward channel pattern then 27400 will act as strong support for it.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 27400 for the targets of 2700026200 with stop loss of 28100.

S1
26950

S2
26200

S3
25370

R1
28100

R2
28770

R3
29450

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed sideways movement and took resistance of trend line but unable to break it and rebounded on last session due to US data. Closing below the trend line indicates further bearishness up to 40750. On other hand if it gives closing above 45300 then only bullish movements expected.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 42400 for targets of 40800-39800, with stop loss of 45200.

PIVOT TABLE S1
42400

S2
40740

S3
38800

R1
45000

R2
46850

R3
48550

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil on daily charts took support of lower band of upward channel pattern, exhibited a continous bull rally and closed on a strong note above 5500. Now, if this bullish movement continous then upper band of channel pattern i.e. 5625 will act as resistance for it. On lower side weekly trend line will act as support for it i.e. 5470.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy on dips for the targets of 5620-5700 with stop loss of 5370.

PIVOT TABLE S1
5380

S2
5235

S3
5060

R1
5550

R2
5650

R3
5800

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week broke its crucial resistance level of 61.8% retracement but unable to sustain above this and closed near 50% retracement, found support of trend line on daily charts. Now, if it break support of 410 which is its 50% retracement then next support is seen near psychological level of 400. On higher side if it gives closing above 421 then only bullish movements is expected.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell below 410, with stop loss of 422 for the target of 400.

S1
410

S2
400

S3
387

R1
422

R2
430

R3
438

DISCLAIMER

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