3 LOW-FLOW

Low-flow statisticsare essentialin water supply planning to determine allowable watertransfersand withdrawals. Other applications of low-flows include water qualitymanagementapplications, determination of minimum downstream release requirements from water resources projects etc. A method for assessing low-flow characteristicsfor l-day,7-day,30-day, and monthly duration was developed by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Water and Energy Commission Secretariate in 1980s (WECS/DHM, 1990) published in 1990 as a report titled 'Methodologies for Estimating Hydrologic Characteristics of UngaugedLocations in Nepal.' This wes thefirst attempt in Nepal for assessinglow-flows of different recurrence intervals. Thestudyused data for 44 stations with a period covering the period from 1963 to 1985. The presentstudy is an update of the 1990 study to include: additional data up to 1995,additional stations, and improved physiographic and hlpsometric data derivedfrom GIS tools. The study used data from 309 precipitation-gauglng (Figure 1.3) and 51 hydrometric stations(Figure 1.4). stations

3.1 Low-FlowCharacferisfics
Significantdecrease in low-flow on a stream leads to drought, reduction in reservoir levels, depletion in soil moisture, &d depletion of groundwater levels. Suchconditions lead to scarcity in drinking water, ffid decline in agriculture productionwittr high consequences on economy and social developments including human miseries. Estimation of low-flow status on a river is important for designing a single purpose or multipurpose water resourcesproject considering extemeconditionsregarding the availability of adequatewater supply. Rivers ure mainly recharged by groundwater during minimum flow periods. Hence,the flow pattern is highly influenced by the hydrology of a river basin. Because of the drawdown of upper aquifers, a river is recharged from deep with less water storageduring extremely dry years. A potential frequency aquifers distribution of low-flow series must, hence, be able to take such deviation into acc0unt. In a region affected by continental monsoons, winter and spring seasons ue usuallydry causing the minimum flow occurring generally in spring season. The period is also highly dependent on the ice and snowmelt situation in the headwater areas. Due to snowmelt in snow-fed rivers, lowest flow condition generally occurs earlier than in the rivers lacking snowmelt contribution to the riverflows(Figure 1.7). As in the case of flood flow estimates, the assessmentof low-flow discharges on a river at any location primarily dependson three cases: adequate data" inadequate data and missing data. The well-known method of hydrological analogy is an appropriate tool in the case of inadequate hydrometric data. The scope of this method may be wider in respect of the estimation of low flows. 29

3.2 LiteratureReview
Compared to flood-flow studies,literature on low-flow studiesis limited. One of the earlier studieson low flows by Riggs (1972) discusses the natureof low-flow frequency curves presentinga multiple regressionapproachin regionalization.A few regional studieson low flows found in recent literatureinclude the Low-Flow' Studies in the UK (IH, 1980), in Russia (Artemieva, 1997) and in South Africa (Smakhtin and Hughes, L997). Multivariate relationship of low flows to ciimatic and basin characteristics are the basic approachapplied in most of thesestudiesro developmethodologies for ungauged basins.A method deveiopedin 1982by Sir MacDonald and Partners titled 'Medium lrrigation Project Design Manual' is basedon the data of a single streamflow measurement during a dry period to ger long-termcharacteristics of minimum flows (MacDonald1990). A catchmentarea acts as a reservoir for precipitation. Hence a catchment area is usually consideredas a universal parameterwhile computing low flows. Besides the catchment area, other parametershave also been considered in the regressionanalysis for arriving at the best equation for predicting low-fiow. The pattern of equationconsideredin this study has the following iorm:
t !

Iow-flow se minimum.

Liter literature sh T)p. III c distrihurion r probability c Fouloula-Ge Distr i:rrtion tn tnrs stud boundedat tl

The , program LOJ Canada. The Extreme Valt presentedin l

il

Q,= axix{ x1'--......,

where Qr : T- year minimum flow Xr, X:, X: : lndependentvariablesinfluencing low flows &d,p,T....: regression coefficients

(J.I]

3.3 Low-FIow Derivation

Daily dischargedata available at DHM were the sourceof data for the derivation of low-flow values for different durations. An EXCEL based macro was developed to extract l-day minimum, 7-day minimum, 30-day minimum and monthly minimum flows. The macro produced output in a format, which could directly be used as input for the low-flow frequencyanalysis. One-day low-flow computed by the macro is the lowest value obtained from eachyear'sdaily streamflow data. Seven-daylow-flow is the minimum value obtained from the consecutive seven-day averages. The procedure used to calculation 30-day low-flow was similar to the procedureused in 7-day low-flow computation. Monthly minimum flow is the minimum value obtained from the seriesof twelve monthly values.One-day,7-day,30-day, and monthly minimum valueswere obtained for eachyear developinga seriesfor eachduration..

3.4 Low-FIowFrequencyAnalysis
Estimation of low-flows from stream flow records is generally done by fitting a probability distribution to the annuai minirnurn averagelou.,-flou''series"Tlrricai
J V

low-flowseries consideredin this study are: l-day, 7-day,30-day and monthly minimum. Literature on low-flow frequency analysis is relatively sparse. Available literature shows that the three-parameter Weibull Distribution, the Log Pearson Type III distribution, and two-parameter and three-parameter Lognormal distribution are the widely used distributions in severalparts of the world for the probability distribution analysis of low flows (Riggs, 1982; Stedinger, Vogel & Foufoula-Georgiou, 1992). The Extreme Value Type III distribution (Weibull Distribution) usedin most of the regions of the world, was selectedfor application in this study. This distribution is particularly suitable for discharge values bounded at the lower end such as the casesof ephemeralrivers. The low-flow frequency analysis was carried out using a computer program LOFLOW developed by the Inland Water Directorate of Environment Canada. The program computes low-flow values for a given duration using Extreme Value Type III distribution. The results of the run for all the stations are presented in Table 3.1 for different durations.

Jr

7-DAY 2.YEAR LOW-FLOW

@

ca

E 3 o
o o t
C) (g q Qo

LL

IV

95% Cl 95% Pl '100 200

SquareRoot[Area(km2)below5000m]
-Year7 -daYlow-flow'

LOW-FLOW 2O-YEAR
a c)

3ro o LL o o
te

o
$ q Q0 95% cl -95%Pl

SquareRoot[Area(km2)below5000m] low-flow' ir 7 -daY

))

3.5 Resul
Low-Flow 10-Year 1-daY

u) (.,
q) o) (g o U' llc)

100

The correlatic significantlY I SimilarlY, tht hypsometric a areasbelow 5 by the Poor c the regional a aprlied for th the reiationst and ungauge for these regi

lo I()

10 (m3/s) Discharge Actual

Anall multiPle reg elevation an improvemen 5000 m, ho ease, onlY recommend frequencies comPutatior Present the low flows r

Figure3.3.Plotofactualvscomputeddischarge:1-dayl0-yearylow-flow
Low'Flow 7-daY10-Year

I I -t,

' '--\

periodT

T presente multiPle numbers (3.2) fot resPecti

Figure3.4.Plotactualvscornputeddischarge:1.dayl0.yearlowflow
r i al+

3.5 Resulfs and Dfscussion

The correlation matrix (Annexure III) shows that the low-flow values are significantlycorrelated with basin area, basin perimeter, and river length. Similarly, the minimum flows are also significantly related to different hypsometric and land-useareas.Correlation matrices also indicate that the basin areas below 5000 m are the most influencing area for the low-flows. As indicated by the poor correlation between the low-flow and the geographical coordinates, theregional aspectis consideredless significant so that the same equation may be for the whole country. Caution should, however, be taken while applyng applied for an ungaugedlocation above 1800 m in high mountain areas therelationship andungauged locations on streamsoriginating in the Siwalik or Terai as no data forthese regionswere availablefor developingregressionequations. Anaiysis of multiple regressionshowed that the relationship based on the regression of areabelow 5000 m or 3000 m combined with averagebasin multiple elevation and averagebasin slope yielded best results avoiding co-linearities. The improvement in goodnessof fit by including additional parametersin area below 5000m, however was marginal. Considering the applicability of equation with only the relationship of low-flow with area below 5000 m have been ease, for the estimation of low-flows for different durations and recommended frequencies. The following equation (Equation 3.2) may be used for the of low flows at an ungaugedlocation. Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 computation present the best-fit plot presentingthe sample of 7-day Z-year and 7-day Z}-year low flowsrespectively.

= Co., * Fo.rJ A-* ,

where,Qd,,: Discharge 1m3/s; d: duration(day) T: Return period (year)

(3.2)

Co.r: Constantcoefficient for a duration d and return period T Fa,r : Coef. of independent variable for duration d and return period T A.5r: Area of the basinbelow 5000 m The values of C and F for different return periods and duration are presented in Table 3.2. The table also includes the statistics obtained from the analysis of the data. Figure 3.3 and Figure 3.4 comparesthe multipleregression obtainedfrom actual values with the numbers computed from Equation numbers (3.2)for the two sample casesof l-day lO-year and 7-day Z-year low flows Annexure I presentsan exampleof the computation. respectively. 35

Table 3.2. .t, Table Laote Ior for low-fl tow-Ilow esLtmatton estimati equauons Goef. Const. Return std. Far Car Day Error Period 1 0.2144 0.081t 0.0033 2 7 0.2362 0.083c 0.0033 0.0031 30 0.302 0.0854 [/onthly 0.003c 0.339i 0.086c 0.0729 0.0032 1 0.085s 10 0.0920 0.0748 t.oogr 0.003c 3C 0.1807 0.076 0.0031 Monthly 0.2138 0.0777 1 0.0698 0.0703 0.0031 20 0.0031 0.0662 0.0726 0.003c 30 0.160 0.0742 0.0031 [/onthlv 0.194t 0.0754

f
0.925 0.929 0.938 0.94C 0.915 0.921 0.93C 0.94C 0.912 0.91 0.927 0.929

36

5 CONCLUSIONSANIDRECOMMENDATIONS
Themethodsfor hydrologicalestimations at ungauged locationsin Nepal, suggested in this report,are the updates of the eariiersimilar studies(WECSIDHM, 1990).The updates use meteoroiogicaland hydroiogical data up 1995. Besides, the updated database integrated in a GIS system was the source of land-use,physiographic, and hypsometric data used in this study. The mathematical formulations developedfor different hydrological designs arebasedon easily derived basin and climatic information. Designers with iimited hydrological expertise can use these methods.Drainage area of the ungaugedbasin below3000m is the only parameter requiredfor flood flow estimation.Similarly, low flowsare estimatedon the basis of the drainageareabelow 5000 m. Average annual hydrograph at an ungauged location is computed using. average basin elevation, average annuaiprecipitation and basin areabeiow 3000 m. Flow-duration curve for an hngauged location usesthe samevariable as in averageannualhydrographbesidesthe b.asin area below 5000 m. i Aithough Nepal can be divided into three distinct physiographic zones, nameiy the High Himalayas, Middle Mountains, and the Terai, attempts to derive pattern of the hydrological characteristicsover Nepal were not successful regional primarilybecauseof the unavailability of representativeinformation covering the wholeregion. The existing hydrometric network in Nepal covers only the Middle Mountain regionwithin the eievation zonefrom 140m to 1800m abovesealevel. Since the developed methodologies are based on limited information and averaged conditions,they should be used only for the hydrological investigationsat reconnaissance or pre-feasiblylevels.Estimatedvaluesshouldbe judged properly on thebasis of hydrological reasoningfor the best results.The following precautionsare particulariy importantwhile applyrngthe methods. . Reliability of the methodswill be low in the high Himalayan region where no regular hydrometry exists.Besides,the hydrology of the high Himalayan region needsto addressthe complex processof snow and glacier,which is not yet properlyassessed. The methodswill need specialjudgment in the Terai region where the flows are highly influencedby surfacewater-Groundwaterinteractions and human impacts. In addition, the nature of floods in Terai is The Terai fioods different fronnr/alley floods in the mountainousareas. aremore static comparedto floods in the mcuntainousrivers. Since the drainage areas used in this study ranged from 17 kmz to 54000 km2, precaution should be taken in applying the methods in river basinssmallerthan 20 km2. 45

Station number: Location: River:

600.1 Uwa Gaon Arun River

Latitude: Longitude:

27 36 00 87 20 06

EXTREME DISCHARGES

MAXIMI'M INSTAI.ITA}IEOUS Discharge Gauge heighE Date ( m 3 / s) (m) l-985 t420 5.60 05/oe/8s 1_986 L270 6.30 2e/06/86 L987 L 5 20 6. 80 t 2 / 0 8 /8 7 j-370 L988 6.50 ts / o8/88 L9B9 1270 6.30 2e/05/8e r.990 LL70 6. 10 t3/08/eo r_991_ ) - 4 70 6.70 76/06/eL 1992 L270 5.30 2 s / o B /e 2 r.993 t470 6.70 04/07/e3 L994 957 5.60 08/08/e4 r_99s 1450 .6.50 28/08/es Year

MINIMI,M INSTAI{TAI\TEOUS Discharge caugE height DaEe (m) {m3/s) 69.3 67 .5 52.9 53.0 61.0 55.4 59.4 53.0 5L. B ,5L.3 L.87 L.8s 1.67 1.80 1. 60 L8/02/86 te/02/87 27/OL/88 20/02/8e 0 7/ 0 2 / e o

r . .s 3
1_.s8 1.s0 1.48 1.48

26/or/et
27/02/92 23/03/e3 22/OL/gq 03/Or/e5

66