SUMMER BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS With the summer box office season starting with X-Men Origins: Wolverine

arriving in just a few days, I thought it was the perfect time to take a look at 20 notable release and what their box office potential may be. Let s take a look.

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
WHEN June 24th STARRING Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox DIRECTOR Michael Bay The sequel to 2007 s smash hit! The first Transformers is an awesome flick and it kicked major ass at the box office, grossing $319M. Expect the sequel to fly higher, much like the second Pirates of the Caribbean. Revenge of the Fallen opens on a Wednesday which always makes it difficult to accurately predict the first weekend take. In fact, I think if Transformers were opening on a Friday instead, it would challenge The Dark Knight ($158M) for best opening weekend. Revenge of the Fallen could have an opening weekend of $110M, with a 5 day tally of $170M. Total Box Office - $425M

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
WHEN July 15th STARRING Daniel Radcliffe, Rupert Grint, Emma Watson DIRECTOR David Yates What can you say about Harry Potter? This is the sixth film starring the boy wizard and each of the prior movies were big hits, making $250M or more. The last two movies made about $290M each. So to me, it s really a no brainer, this one will make $290M also. Wrong. This Harry Potter flick has the added benefit of higher ticket prices for IMAX screens and this will add to Harry s potter of gold. Opening on a Wednesday, look for Harry to have an opening weekend of $85M with a 5 day total of $150M. Total Box Office - $320M

X-Men Origins: Wolverine
WHEN - May 1st STARRING Hugh Jackman, Live Schreiber DIRECTOR Gavin Hood The first mystery involving the success of Wolverine is whether the leaked copy of the movie will affect its overall box office. My guess is no. Most of the people that watched the movie on a computer screen are still going to the theatres to check it out. Although Wolverine isn t a sequel, it sort of is a sequel to the X-Men trilogy but I think the fairest comparison is to last summer s blockbuster, Iron Man. In the comic book community, Wolverine is a more popular character than Iron Man. Based on that I would think Wolverine may open slightly bigger than

Iron Man ($102M), with about $110M (I may change my mind by Thursday). Overall I think Iron Man will make more money based on the great word of mouth and accessibility of the character. Total Box Office - $275M

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
WHEN May 22nd STARRING Ben Stiller, Robin Williams, Amy Adams DIRECTOR Shawn Levy The first one was a surprise hit in the winter of 2006 grossing $251M. Does opening in a more crowded summer field hurt Battle of the Smithsonian s box office? No way. The only difference here will be the opening weekend take and the amount of time it takes to hit the $250M mark. The first Night opened to $30M and then displayed amazing legs from positive word of mouth. Smithsonian will have a $70M opening and outpace the originals total by a small margin. Total Box Office - $275M

Star Trek
WHEN May 8th STARRING Chris Pine, Zachary Quinto DIRECTOR J.J. Abrams The biggest Star Trek hit was 1986 s Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home which grossed $109M. At todays ticket prices that would be about $210M. Of course this franchise reboot brought to you by the mastermind behind Lost, J.J. Abrams is not your average Star Trek movie. This one looks incredible and it will certainly bring new audiences to the decades old property. Star Trek will warp its way to an opening of $85M+ and boldly go where no other Star Trek has gone before over $200M at the box office. Total Box Office - $240M

Terminator Salvation
WHEN May 21st STARRING Christian Bale, Sam Worthington DIRECTOR McG Coming off of last year s biggest hit, The Dark Knight, Christian Bale stars in yet another franchise ripe with box office potential. Terminator Salvation will be a big hit but its potential to me seems sort of limited. The last Terminator pulled in about $150M in summer of 2003 and this one should have no trouble besting that. But like I said, the audience is somewhat finite with this property, just look at the TV show. It was a good show but just couldn t catch fire in the ratings. I think Salvation will open to about $75M and surpass 3 s total by quite a bit. Total Box Office - $225M

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
WHEN July 1st STARRING Ray Romano, John Leguizamo, Denis Leary DIRECTOR Carlos Saldanha This is the third entry in the popular series, but the first 2 opened in March. Opening in July with the kids out of school, Ice Age should heat up at the box office. The second film grossed $195M, improving upon the originals $176M. Factor in slightly higher ticket prices, a summer opening and a few IMAX screens and Dawn of the Dinosaurs looks like it will surpass the other 2. Dinosaurs will open with about $70M. Total Box Office - $220M

Up
WHEN May 29th STARRING Ed Asner, Jordan Nagai DIRECTOR Pete Docter Do I think this is gonna be Pixar s biggest hit? No. Do I think it s a bomb? No. Pixar doesn t make bombs. Up will perform just fine at the box office, falling somewhere between Ratatouille ($206M) and WALL-E ($223M). I don t think Up will open with as much as WALL-E ($63M) but positive word of mouth will give it legs to go the normal Pixar distance. Look for Up to float to an opening weekend of about $55M. Total Box Office - $210M

G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra
WHEN August 7th STARRING Channing Tatum, Dennis Quaid, Sienna Miller DIRECTOR Stephen Sommers I m a huge G.I. JOE fan and this is the one movie I can t wait to take my son to see this summer. That being said, I m afraid it is not going to be that good. Don t get me wrong, I m sure it will be pretty cool and there will be a couple of breakout characters like black clad ninja, Snake-Eyes, that will help power the box office, but I think it will fall short of many fans expectations. It is also fair to compare JOE to the Transformers because they are both based on popular toys and cartoon series from the 80 s, but Transformers had more going for it. Namely action guru director Michael Bay, emerging star Shia LaBeouf and the curiosity factor as far as what Transformers were going to look like on the big screen. Nonetheless, G.I. JOE has a fervent fanbase that has been awaiting a live action movie forever. The Rise of Cobra should open to about $65M. Total Box Office - $175M

Angels & Demons
WHEN May 15th

STARRING Tom Hanks, Ewan McGregor DIRECTOR Ron Howard I love The Da Vinci Code the book the movie not so much and despite its towering $217M gross, I don t think I m alone. The movie was a hit based on the strength of the book not the movie itself. Was anyone really clamoring for a sequel? I don t really think so. On the plus side this time around, Tom Hanks is no longer sporting a mullet. The Da Vinci Code opened to $77M in 2006 and I expect Angels to open at about half that. Total Box Office - $150M

Public Enemies
WHEN- July 1st STARRING Johnny Depp, Christian Bale DIRECTOR Michael Mann Depp + Bale + Mann = box office hit. Depp plays John Dillinger, the notorious bank robber from the 30 s and Bale plays the agent who brings him down, Melvin Purvis. Opening weekend of $40M is in the cards. Total Box Office - $120M

Funny People
WHEN July 31st STARRING Adam Sandler, Seth Rogen, Leslie Mann DIRECTOR Judd Apatow Comedy guru Judd Apatow s third directorial effort teams him with Adam Sandler for what is a match made in comedy heaven. An opening weekend of about $35M seems about right. Total Box Office - $120M

The Hangover
WHEN June 5th STARRING Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms DIRECTOR Todd Phillips This comedy has been receiving major buzz from its hilarious trailer and in fact, a sequel has already been green lit. The Hangover will open to about $30M. Total Box Office - $115M

The Taking of Pelham 123 WHEN - June 12th
STARRING John Travolta, Denzel Washington DIRECTOR Tony Scott

A remake of the classic film from 1974 starring Travolta and Denzel and directed by Tony Scott! I m in where do I purchase my ticket? I would think Pelham 123 will open with about $40M. Total Box Office - $110M

Bruno
WHEN July 10th STARRING Sacha Baron Cohen DIRECTOR Larry Charles Cohen goes the Borat root with yet another character from Da Ali G Show, gay Austrian fashion reporter, Bruno. Borat made $129M, but I don t think Bruno will make as much. The key to Borat was the element of surprise and Bruno lacks that. Nonetheless it will be a hit, with a $25M opening. Total Box Office - $90M

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past
WHEN May 1st STARRING Matthew McConaughey, Jennifer Garner DIRECTOR Mark Waters McConaughey returns to form in this romantic comedy with A Christmas Carol twist. Romantic comedy is where McConaughey s box office strength lies and this one should prove no different. An opening take of about $25M is in the cards. Total Box Office - $85M

Land of the Lost
WHEN June 5th STARRING Will Ferrell, Danny McBride DIRECTOR Brad Silberling Is anyone really that nostalgic for the kiddie TV series this movie is based on? I don t think so. Still, with Ferrell in the lead, Lost has a chance of striking box office gold. Lost should open with about $30M. Total Box Office - $80M

Inglorious Basterds
WHEN- August 21st STARRING Brad Pitt, Mike Meyers, Diane Kruger DIRECTOR Quentin Tarantino Tarantino finally brings his long awaited WW II action flick to multiplexes with an eclectic cast led by secret weapon Brad Pitt. Tarantino s films aren t known for their box office prowess, but with Pitt in the lead, this one has got a good shot. Look for a $25M opening.

Total Box Office - $70M

The Proposal
WHEN June 19th STARRING Sandra Bullock, Ryan Reynolds DIRECTOR Anne Fletcher Bullock returns to her bread and butter genre, the romantic comedy, for the first time in 7 years and will likely have a small hit on her hands. The Proposal could walk away with $18M on its opening weekend. Total Box Office - $55M

Drag Me to Hell
WHEN May 29th STARRING Justin Long, Alison Lohman DIRECTOR Sam Raimi Director Raimi returns to his horror roots with new fans from the Spider-Man trilogy in tow. Hell should scare up about $20M on its opening weekend. Total Box Office - $50M

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