United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service December 2012

China’s phenomenal growth as an importer of dry milk products is expected to continue as imports of whole milk powder (WMP) and skimmed milk powder (SMP) are forecast to grow by 12 percent and 18 percent, respectively in 2013. The increase in imports of SMP has been particularly notable with imports in 2012 through October reported at 147,000 tons - up nearly 49 percent in comparison to the same period last year. Import growths of other commodities such as dried whey products, cheese, and butterfat have also been scoring impressive gains. While New Zealand has been the primary beneficiary, the United States has a strong foothold in the SMP, dry whey, and to a lesser extent the cheese import markets. U.S. cheese exports to China in 2012 through October currently total almost 8,000 tons; up 43 percent in comparison to the same time span in 2011.

China's Imports of Milk Powder Forecast to Continue Growing in 2013 (1,000 Metric Tons)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2008

2009

2010 WMP

2011 SMP

2012

2013 (Dec)

1
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Dairy Production and Trade Developments
Summary This past year has been a rollercoaster ride for dairy markets with international prices starting at relatively high levels, declining in mid-year, and then staging a modest comeback. Initially, the anticipation of a surge in milk production among major exporters fueled by high milk prices caused dairy product prices to decline sharply. In addition, the health of the global economy added uncertainty particularly as the EU economic crisis lingered as a major unresolved question. The price decline, however, was subsequently arrested as the severity of the developing drought in the United States became evident and concerns over available exportable supplies caused prices to post a cautious recovery. Currently, global dairy markets are in a stable phase with prices fluctuating within a narrow range but with no discernible direction as importers and exporters evaluate the future. Milk production in Oceania is expected to increase by 6 percent in 2012 over 2011 due to the combination of unusually favorable weather and excellent pasture conditions that prevailed during the season. However, for 2013, the forecast pegs milk production to grow by less than 1 percent. In the United States, milk output which is slated to grow by almost 2 percent in 2012, but is expected to remain virtually flat in 2013 as high feed prices have taken a toll on the financial health of dairy farmers. In the EU, milk production is forecast to grow by less than 1 percent. In sum, it appears that 2012 was an exceptional year but milk output in 2013 will revert back to a more normal pace. This means that for 2013 the availability of exportable supplies to global markets will likely grow but not by the amounts experienced during the past two years. China will be a key player in determining the health of global dairy markets given its demand for an ever-growing share of dairy supplies. China’s appetite for imported dairy products shows no sign of abating with imports of milk powder products in 2013 set to jump by 14 percent to about 640,000 tons. Further, there are signs that imports of other dairy products such as cheese and butterfat, although currently relatively minor, are starting to ramp-up. From an economic perspective the financial situation in the EU will continue to be seen as a having a major bearing on global situation in 2013. Although the Eurozone is expected to experience a mild recovery in 2013 following a recession in 2012, the fiscal situation remains precarious. Nevertheless, the global outlook is fairly positive with global GDP expected to post a growth rate of 2.5 percent compared to the 2.2 percent forecast for 2012. In the key Asian markets, the picture is somewhat mixed but China’s GDP is expected to register a growth rate of 8.1 percent – up from the estimated 7.5 percent in 2012. This suggests that China’s import demand for dairy products will likely continue to strengthen as the middle class expands and concerns about the domestic regulatory system persists. In the America’s, Mexico – a key U.S. dairy market – is forecast to remain relatively strong which bodes well for sales of U.S. SMP and cheese.

2

Milk Production: 2013 Forecast Summary

Milk Production Summary for Major Exporters
(1,000 Metric Tons)

2011 Argentina Australia EU-27 New Zealand United States Total • 11,470 9,562 138,219 18,965 89,015 267,231

2012 (Pre.) 11,815 10,015 140,000 20,348 90,560 272,738

2013 (For.) 12,230 10,135 140,700 20,400 90,600 274,065

% Change 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

Due to variable weather – drought in summer followed by excessive rain – and increased production costs, Argentina’s milk production forecast is revised down by 8 percent from July but still represents a 3 percent increase over 2011. For 2013, milk output is slated to continue expanding at 4 percent driven by an expanding herd and improved milk-per-cow yields. Farmers, however, continue to be challenged by inflationary pressures particularly with respect to labor and energy. There is some question as to capability of the domestic industry to expand in the future as reportedly expansionary plans by processors have been suspended due to economic uncertainty and the difficulty in importing equipment. The Australian dairy industry continues to benefit from favorable weather which has brought two consecutive years of above average rainfall in key dairy producing areas. This has replenished reservoirs and improved pastures. In addition, strong milk prices promoted the expansion of the domestic herd. As a result, the 2012 forecast for milk production remains little changed from July and total output is expected to grow by about 5 percent over last year. For 2013, the herd is expected to expand by 30,000 cows and milk output is pegged to increase by 1 percent. Although, there were concerns of the dry El Nino weather pattern developing by the end of 2012 year, weather indicators are currently pointing to a neutral situation that is expected to persist through the Southern hemisphere summer. Most of the additional milk production is expected to be channeled into the production of cheese. The New Zealand milk production forecast for 2012 is raised by 2 percent from July as a result of excellent pasture growing conditions and expansion of the herd. It is anticipated that the herd in 2012 will expand by some 205,000 cows from 2011. For 2013, milk output is forecast to rise marginally as the higher number of cows in the South Island region is expected to be offset by lower milk per cow yields due to a return to normal pasture growth and quality. Most of the additional milk is likely to be used in the production of WMP at the expense of cheese and SMP/butter. Although the dairy herd in the EU-27 is expected to contract by 1 percent in 2012, improved milk per cow yields are forecast to result in a 1 percent increase in milk production for 2012 3

At present. total 2012 cheese output is expected to register a 15 percent year-over-year increase and in turn cheese exports are forecast to jump by 9 percent to reach 275. and South Korea which accounted for 51 percent of New Zealand’s cheese exports in 2011. EU-27 farmers are operating under a milk production quota system which is set to be eliminated in April 2015. and the increase in milk per cow is expected to offset the lower cow numbers. the 2012 export forecast is revised down 10 percent from July to 165.000 tons – up 14 percent over 2011. however. resulted in a decline in second-half production. Australia.560 tons. For 2013.000 tons – a decline of 2 percent from 2011. The principal markets for New Zealand cheese are likely to be Japan. coupled with the declining cow numbers. Nevertheless. although cheese production is expected to drop by 3 percent. milk per cow is forecast to improve. Milk per cow in the second half also suffered from tight supplies of alfalfa hay and high summer temperatures in much of the country which.000 tons. • With production in the second half of 2012 forecast lower. increases in feed costs in 2011 and early 2012 were only partly offset by higher milk prices in 2011 and as milk prices declined in early 2012. Cow numbers are forecast to decline as producers adjust to 2012’s weak returns. In the first half of 2012. higher milk per cow yields are anticipated to result in a 1 percent increase of overall milk production. the stage was set for a contraction in cow numbers during the second half of 2012. The driving force behind this increase is strong domestic consumption.in comparison to 2011. EU-27 dairy farmers were squeezed by lower milk prices and higher input costs. However. shipments are forecast to grow by 4 percent as stocks are drawn down. cheese production is anticipated to expand marginally but cheese exports are forecast to rebound and grow by 18 percent. the annual milk production forecast for the United States is lowered fractionally from July and is now expected to expand by less than 2 percent to 90. As a result. Higher energy and feed costs and the lingering economic crisis are expected to limit output growth despite an increase in milk production quotas. On the trade side. In the second half of the year. especially in the later part of the year as alfalfa availability improves. the recovery of international prices improved margins which are expected to carry through into 2013. Cheese: • New Zealand’s cheese export 2012 forecast is revised up 6 percent from July due to the increased milk flows which allowed cheese production to expand. Production gains in the first half of 2012 reflected both an extra milking day in 2012 and a continuation of the expansion in cow numbers which began in mid-2010. For 2013. For 2013. Consequently. Cheese production in the EU-27 is expected to expand by 1 percent in 2012 over 2011 as cheese production is expected to absorb much of the additional milk output expected for the • • 4 . However. the paces of cheese shipments for this year through September in comparison to the same period year-ago are trailing by 6 percent. milk production is forecast to be virtually unchanged from 2012. The Australian cheese production forecast for 2012 is raised 5 percent from July to 385. the forecast is for a continued decline in cow numbers as less efficient farmers exit the sector. For 2013.

At present. cheese production is forecast to increase again albeit at a slower pace. • 5 .000 tons from July and cheese output for the year versus 2011 is slated to grow by 2 percent. Total shipments for the year are therefore projected to increase by 5 percent over 2011. exports of cheese for the year through October 2012 are running at 20 percent ahead above the same period last year with shipments to Mexico up an impressive 38 percent. U.275/ton FOB ($1. This deep discount of AMF on a butter equivalent basis suggests that New Zealand has excess butterfat stocks in the form of AMF which may have accumulated during the flush season when butter processing facilities were operating at capacity. On the trade front.S. Butter: • Butter production in New Zealand is estimated to reach nearly 500. driven largely by favorable prices vis-à-vis butter and SMP. In 2013. For 2013. For 2013. For 2013.39/lb) for nearby (1-3 month) delivery. 7 percent above 2011 but are forecast to decline by 1 percent in 2013.49/lb) while butteroil/anhydrous milk fat (AMF) prices on the Global Trade Platform were reported at around $3. imports of cheese have been on a downward trajectory over the past several years and this trend is expected to continue with imports projected to drop by 3 percent in 2012 and a further 8 percent in 2012. In addition. cheese exporters are likely to face strong competition from Oceania particularly during the early part of 2013 as the seasonal spring (southern hemisphere) flush of milk that peaks in October-November of 2012 is processed and shipped.S. Oceania butter prices are reported at around $3.year.000 tons. production is set to rise by 3 percent. Forecast butter exports for 2012 are revised-up by 2 percent from July to 480. cheese production 2012 forecast is lowered marginally by 20. At present. exports of cheese are expected to decline by 3 percent to 254.000 tons largely as a result of stagnant milk production which when coupled with growing domestic demand is expected to limit exportable supplies.S. Exports have been faring well despite a drop in import demand from Russia and the 2012 export forecast is raised by 13 percent from July to 130. • The U. Domestic consumption remains strong and it is expected that approximately70 percent of the additional output in cheese will be consumed within the EU-27 with the balance directed to export markets. EU-27 butter consumption during 2012 is expected to grow by 2 percent over the previous year as the relatively higher price of vegetable oils favors the incorporation of butter in the food industry in some of the EU-27 states.000 tons in 2012 but is forecast to subsequently decline by 2 percent in 2013 as additional milk supplies are likely to be focused on the production of higher revenue yielding WMP. Exports for 2013 are projected to grow by 2 percent with Russia likely to remain the single largest market. exports are forecast to post a 15 percent increase as EU butter prices are expected to be competitive and stocks are withdrawn from the Private Storage Aid program towards the end of 2012 and early 2013.000 tons.075/ton FOB ($1. butter Government intervention stocks are minimal. U.

000 tons. Exports of U. Processors are importing higher volumes as they look to switch away from the more expensive WMP and also to meet growing domestic demand for dairy products.000 Metric Tons 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2010 June July 2011 Aug Sept 2012 Oct Nov Dec 2009 • Following a strong year of U. The outlook for 2013 points to a drop in domestic production as price relationships between dairy products are expected to favor cheese production.S. imports are slated to grow by 4 percent. Sales to Japan and Canada have been weak this year through October 2012 although this has been somewhat offset by the strong pace of shipments to Saudi Arabia and Iran. Butter production in 2013 is expected to be unchanged despite increased milk production due to its reduced profitability. Russian import demand for butter strengthened in 2012 as it appears that domestic production is unable to meet fairly robust consumption demand.000 tons from July and total butter imports for the year are anticipated to grow by 12 percent compared to last year. exports are forecast to grow by 11 percent. shipments of butter for 2012 are forecast to drop by 28 percent to 47. and competition from low cost margarine.S. The 2012 import forecast is revised up by 40. driven by consumer demand. butter exports. For 2013. Nevertheless. SMP have been growing to China – up 10 percent for this year through October 2012 – but face strong competition from New Zealand and the EU-27.EU-Butter Stocks (Private + Intervention) 250 200 1. For 2013. the availability of cheaper imports. imports of SMP are forecast to continue growing by 18 percent to 230. • Skimmed Milk Powder: • The 2012 import forecast for China is revised up by 8 percent from July and overall SMP imports are expected to jump by 50 percent in comparison to 2011.000 tons. 6 .

Consequently. Imports of WMP this year through October 2012 total 327.000 tons. Mexico will likely remain an important destination as Mexican imports of SMP are forecast to remain unchanged in 2013.000 MT 250 200 150 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 • U.S. Although shipments to some key Asian markets were down.000 tons. a decline in domestic milk production coupled with increased flows of milk to the production of cheese will limit SMP production growth. SMP for 2012 through October to Mexico were up 18 percent over the comparable period last year and so far account for 44 percent of the total U. limiting supplies for exports. Consequently. U. SMP production for 2012 is expected to expand by 4 percent compared to 2011 but is forecast to contract by 1 percent in 2013 as the focus is expected to be on the production of WMP.000 tons – up 17 percent in comparison to the same period last year. • • Whole Milk Powder: • Despite relatively high WMP prices particularly early in the year.S. The EU-27 2012 export forecast is revised-up significantly by 17 percent from July or 85.S.000 tons to 585. 7 . exports for 2013 are forecast to grow by 7 percent as stocks are pared down.down 4 percent. imports are expected to grow by 12 percent to 410. shipments of SMP are forecast to decline by 3 percent as lower domestic output . In Oceania.000 tons driven by an expanding middle class which are demanding an ever increasing amount of quality dairy products.is expected to reduce available exportable supplies. China’s imports of WMP appear to have been largely unaffected. the 2012 (July) import forecast is raised by 10 percent to 365. exports of SMP during 2012 are on pace to expand by 4 percent over 2011 and the 2012 forecast has been raised marginally from July to a record 455. For 2013. exports to Mexico are booming.Chinese Imports of SMP 1.000 tons due to high global prices and strong import demand from North Africa (particularly Algeria) and Asia.S. Shipments of U. EU-27 exports for 2013 are expected to drop by 5 percent. SMP exported. For 2013. For 2013. Despite this.

Early in the year. In the WMP market. Among other major WMP exporters – Argentina and EU-27 – the outlook for 2013 is for a marginal increase in their aggregate WMP exports. the outlook for 2013 points to a period of relative stability in the first half of the year as world markets absorb the substantial volumes generated by Oceania’s increased production during the 2012 southern hemisphere spring flush season. This suggests that there is some relative tightness in the SMP market which may lead importers to switch back to purchases of WMP if this price relationship persists. however. a significant gap between Oceania and EU-27 prices has developed probably reflective of the increased quantities of WMP available in Oceania just past the seasonal peaks.• In New Zealand the emphasis continues to be on the production and export of WMP which during the 2008 through 2011 period grew at an average annual rate in excess of 20 percent. the bulk of EU-27 WMP shipments go to North African and Middle East destinations but exports of WMP to such key destinations as Algeria and Nigeria in 2012 have been lagging relative to last year. WMP exports for the year are forecast to increase by 6 percent to 1. In addition.225 million tons.S and EU butter prices. it appears that there are ample supplies as Oceania prices are well below the U. the pace of exports is forecast to grow at a more moderate pace reflecting a slow-down in milk production increases. exports are forecast down about 1 percent. • Prices In terms of international dairy prices. and Algeria. global economic and population growth are expected to keep driving import demand which could put upward pressure on dairy prices particularly towards the second half of 2013. For 2013. Nevertheless. At present prices have leveled-off and it appears that they will likely remain stable for the nearby future. WMP production in 2013 is expected to remain flat as additional milk volumes are likely to be channeled into the production of cheese. In the EU-27. In recent years. At present US. exports for 2013 are forecast to grow by 3 percent to 239. Consequently. and Oceania SMP prices are trading within a narrow range with no competitive advantage to any one exporter. Brazil. EU-27.000 tons. Typically. Oceania WMP traded at a 5-10 percent premium over SMP. This year. Nevertheless. there are currently no significant surplus stocks in the United States or the EU to buffer markets. it is now trading at parity or up to a 5 percent discount. Approximately 30 percent of the volume exported has been shipped to China. New Zealand’s exports for 2012 through October are up 15 percent and the July export forecast is revised up by 25. approximately 70 percent of Argentine WMP has been shipped to Venezuela. International butter prices fell sharply early in 2012 but have recovered. butteroil/AMF prices are below butter prices which suggest that there is a need to move excess supplies.295 million tons. However.000 tons to 1. 8 . In Argentina. With slightly higher domestic demand.

000 3.Cheese Prices .000 3.000 2.000 2.500 4.500 3.500 3.Oceania FOB $/MT 5.000 4.500 4.Oceania FOB $/MT 5.500 Range Mid-Point 9 .000 4.500 Range Mid-Point Butter Prices .500 5.

500 4.500 3.000 4.500 5.500 4.000 3.Oceania FOB $/MT 5.SMP Prices .500 3.000 Range Mid-Point Source: Agricultural Marketing Service.000 4.000 2.500 Range Mid-Point WMP Prices . USDA 10 .000 2.Oceania FOB $/MT 5.500 2.000 3.

200 5.203 16.100 17.273 129.204 9.700 18.620 805 8.315 16.480 9.236 20.650 2.200 21.COWS MILK: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.182 8.900 46.320 830 8.560 985 6.671 134.193 19. Notes: (p) Preliminary.600 43.856 12. (1) Based on deliveries (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .577 985 6.425 8.700 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total South Asia India Asia China Japan Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.210 38.075 6.582 981 6.560 11.400 810 9.877 2.194 16.119 16.700 23.755 137.300 9.122 2.093 22.900 22.582 11.192 2.600 44.600 19.276 129.963 7.676 4.850 24. and office research.620 4.400 48.096 12.580 983 6.350 9.686 22.503 979 6.225 16.858 2.466 1.000 813 8.813 8.281 8.296 1.640 4.300 24.100 17.575 862 9.840 126.400 9.500 42.150 16.736 11.200 19.596 1.115 848 7.530 2.650 2.800 3.150 9.27 1/ 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 984 6.386 8.597 6.436 132.415 2.126 8.594 8.130 16.091 1.680 6.650 5.600 2.631 11. (f) Forecast.680 5.150 19.202 1.176 2.816 6.210 Source: FAS post reports.896 9.437 7. official statistics.400 9.021 6.000 Head Milk Cow Numbers North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .596 4.150 7.350 23.566 2.450 22.

150 10.982 42.450 11.400 11.815 31.451 10.282 28.500 55.500 15.150 90.350 11. official statistics.173 26.026 8.700 7.27 1/ Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total South Asia India Asia China Japan Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 8. (1) Based on deliveries (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .400 44.050 32.907 86.500 439.461 8.445 7.300 53.000 Metric Tons Fluid Milk Production North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .024 32.300 7.700 32.015 108.470 30.153 90. (f) Forecast.600 11.174 32.857 8.046 89.309 432.780 34.600 110.490 43.920 9.522 9.612 10.195 Source: FAS post reports.250 10.804 42.021 30.380 7.015 20.562 18.280 10.070 34.500 7.848 10.570 40. and office research.535 469.977 42.866 85.474 38.700 10.474 106.527 451.400 30.847 10.350 28.715 42.795 39.230 32.080 432.820 37.351 8.174 105.370 43.900 43.163 8.270 10.500 57.824 31.348 30.600 29.910 36.500 48.880 105.983 26.948 40.305 140.500 11.524 44.665 9.033 87.050 43.219 11.145 133.915 9.965 28.580 25.COWS MILK: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.327 17.300 7.548 135.355 29.970 31.500 11.560 110.742 10.546 32.160 50.363 462.326 16.380 44.610 140. Notes: (p) Preliminary.830 133.350 11.135 20.000 12.185 138.721 37.010 27.540 41.472 11.

39 1.33 1.16 1.13 1.42 3.54 4.70 9.05 6.32 4.03 4.31 1.22 3.67 5.40 1.59 8.74 4.75 5.94 6.00 9.60 5.31 4.51 1.46 1.12 5.77 9.03 9. official statistics.60 4.20 3.58 6.70 5.93 1.05 1. (1) Based on deliveries (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .01 3.84 3.71 5.55 1.47 1.00 9.69 5.72 3.28 4.92 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 Source: FAS post reports.15 1.19 1.06 9.30 4.98 3.67 5.33 4.33 8.00 9. Notes: (p) Preliminary.07 4.20 1.74 4.09 9.66 1.76 9.58 6.73 9.67 4.02 4.25 8.76 9.26 4. and office research.32 3.82 8.67 5.98 5.27 1/ Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine South Asia India Asia China Japan Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand 5.68 8.53 5.63 1. (f) Forecast.90 3.79 3.56 3.58 1.70 9.20 8.COWS MILK : SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES MT/Head Fluid Milk Production Per Cow North America Canada Mexico United States South America Argentina Brazil European Union .11 3.

950 2.200 4.520 48.522 33.454 300 2.950 12.232 33. (1) Based on deliveries (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .184 5.442 17.754 172.342 17.093 11.791 4.600 4.896 37.205 345 2.000 54.345 16.790 176.895 12.938 2.210 12.572 165.532 3.000 Metric Tons Fluid Milk Consumption North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .684 12.700 5.123 3.483 15.400 14.210 5.145 4.168 28.418 300 2.597 11.350 3.272 300 2.744 2.060 4.100 3.658 13.525 3.284 300 2.470 14.872 33.620 12. (f) Forecast.261 35.058 16. Notes: (p) Preliminary.205 5.442 19.995 33.010 17.970 18.320 2.487 16.520 15.648 2.164 4.738 2.550 36.760 36.157 11.697 44.055 12.550 163.581 4.142 11.584 169.444 2.460 4.117 11.181 1.150 16.130 11. official statistics.264 16.263 28.718 171.100 10.719 2.095 2.100 28.975 10.408 33.023 11.171 28.775 5.659 33.550 11.206 28.27 1/ Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total South Asia India Asia China Japan Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 3.COWS MILK: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1. and office research.570 Source: FAS post reports.232 12.247 3.140 51.124 35.160 49.278 13.755 36.114 3.167 28.859 3.870 2.250 4.490 300 2.000 14.660 52.103 5.700 2.429 13.715 13.

331 9.737 5.959 572 679 1.050 5.287 17.CHEESE PRODUCTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1. official statistics.251 9.322 16. (1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .570 5. (f) Forecast.203 16.27 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia Japan Korea Philippines Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total 344 288 632 47 25 2 74 430 249 679 525 607 1.963 17.144 8.739 540 648 1.377 304 270 4.188 8.900 5.180 400 228 628 438 212 650 425 185 610 450 165 615 470 170 640 45 23 2 79 48 27 2 86 49 25 2 82 50 25 2 84 51 26 2 77 321 308 629 319 268 587 338 270 608 385 310 695 390 300 690 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 16.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .969 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 291 242 4.103 297 264 4.289 9.496 4.474 304 270 5.132 8.768 16.542 Source: FAS post reports.035 589 700 1. Notes: (p) Preliminary.807 5.130 609 722 1.624 530 614 1.717 285 188 4.298 300 270 4. and office research.

(1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .718 5.855 15.CHEESE CONSUMPTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1.540 5. (f) Forecast.455 548 748 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .156 8.169 318 338 4.255 8.556 16. and office research. Notes: (p) Preliminary.638 5.093 8.245 490 666 1.365 514 715 1.296 8. official statistics.246 310 251 4.981 Source: FAS post reports.478 5.572 495 624 1.928 16.294 313 344 4.426 530 725 1.771 5.894 5.323 16.490 690 160 850 780 144 924 759 117 876 790 111 901 815 123 938 229 72 301 247 88 335 264 101 365 280 100 380 286 104 390 220 24 244 225 24 249 255 30 285 261 30 291 265 30 295 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 15.229 8.375 320 356 4.447 320 358 4.039 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 318 311 4.27 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia Japan Korea Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total 214 22 236 234 72 306 750 185 935 488 605 1.119 8.729 16.

CHEESE IMPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1.043 1.27 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia Japan Korea Philippines Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total 70 4 74 187 47 14 248 340 13 353 3 5 8 84 26 68 137 231 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 24 73 131 228 25 80 110 215 25 78 110 213 25 90 112 227 25 92 103 220 3 16 19 84 3 22 25 82 3 39 42 74 3 28 31 80 3 29 32 80 310 9 319 353 11 364 344 12 356 350 16 366 355 18 373 184 49 15 248 199 61 15 275 215 76 20 311 230 75 22 327 235 78 23 336 65 6 71 76 6 82 72 5 77 76 5 81 76 5 81 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 998 969 1. (f) Forecast.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .112 1. (1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .122 Source: FAS post reports. Notes: (p) Preliminary. and office research.073 1. official statistics.

(1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 . official statistics.246 1. Notes: (p) Preliminary.CHEESE EXPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .27 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total 202 247 449 20 77 97 36 7 63 555 10 5 131 82 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 9 4 108 113 9 6 173 146 9 4 224 121 9 4 261 177 9 4 254 161 48 6 53 578 45 4 43 676 60 3 54 683 60 3 49 755 62 3 53 770 21 77 98 11 79 90 9 80 89 10 70 80 10 65 75 162 290 452 160 265 425 168 253 421 165 275 440 195 285 480 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 1. (f) Forecast.368 1.294 1. and office research.380 1.539 Source: FAS post reports.501 1.

27 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia India Japan Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 111 413 519 3. and office research. official statistics.040 85 180 746 1.525 68 4.991 4.690 72 3.867 7.100 64 83 147 2.BUTTER PRODUCTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1.393 4. Notes: (p) Preliminary.236 4.958 8.162 74 4.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union . (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .818 118 482 519 132 441 519 123 472 519 126 499 519 126 490 519 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 7. (1) Includes Butteroil/AMF butter equivalent.110 246 75 321 207 79 286 217 76 293 210 85 295 210 90 300 3.980 63 79 142 2.910 81 3.750 68 4.782 8.030 57 78 135 1.987 Source: FAS post reports.011 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 86 171 713 970 80 182 709 971 85 187 821 1.593 4.127 8.495 8.128 88 185 820 1.093 93 190 845 1.330 63 4.055 66 81 147 2. (f) Forecast.762 305 85 390 61 84 145 2.093 51 76 127 2.

27 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia India Japan Taiwan Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 64 21 85 3.271 4.320 81 18 4.510 78 17 4.BUTTER CONSUMPTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1.819 8.910 74 14 3.540 7.073 96 230 808 1.006 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 96 224 694 1. (1) Includes Butteroil/AMF butter equivalent.750 77 19 4.946 88 229 689 1.004 93 223 757 1.112 34 81 115 1.982 46 80 126 2.020 42 82 124 2.170 85 16 4.894 38 75 113 1. and office research. official statistics.020 349 90 439 320 84 404 330 79 409 340 91 431 343 93 436 3.998 4.419 8.772 453 82 535 37 81 118 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .134 97 230 785 1.642 Source: FAS post reports. (f) Forecast. (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .846 60 20 80 73 20 93 78 20 98 82 21 103 83 21 104 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 7.419 4.934 34 78 112 1.014 90 231 683 1. Notes: (p) Preliminary.093 8.462 7.605 4.680 83 9 3.

27 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia India Japan Taiwan Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 20 1 21 5 18 9 32 150 3 153 1 84 7 49 16 72 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 12 53 17 82 8 49 10 67 10 36 12 58 7 40 14 61 7 45 14 66 7 93 2 66 0 63 1 65 1 65 107 16 123 114 6 120 116 5 121 130 7 137 135 5 140 28 0 14 42 25 2 16 43 0 14 18 32 12 10 17 39 5 9 19 33 18 1 19 19 1 20 19 1 20 24 1 25 21 1 22 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 363 366 318 294 328 327 Source: FAS post reports. (f) Forecast. official statistics.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Brazil European Union . Notes: (p) Preliminary.BUTTER IMPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1. (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 . (1) Includes Butteroil/AMF butter equivalent. and office research.

Notes: (p) Preliminary. (1) Includes Butteroil/AMF butter equivalent.27 Former Soviet Union Ukraine Asia India Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 58 351 409 15 5 6 24 4 28 153 1 0 89 90 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 3 0 30 33 1 0 59 60 0 0 65 65 0 0 47 47 1 0 52 53 17 2 19 149 16 5 21 154 28 1 29 124 21 2 23 130 25 2 27 150 1 1 2 1 2 28 10 11 15 11 28 15 4 15 10 87 492 579 58 429 487 45 449 494 60 480 540 65 474 539 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 691 791 738 742 745 781 Source: FAS post reports. (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 . official statistics. (f) Forecast.BUTTER EXPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union . and office research.

000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States 1/ Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .SKIMMED MILK POWDER PRODUCTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.180 40 141 181 1.437 3. (f) Forecast.396 3. and office research.063 82 13 930 1.080 35 130 165 1. (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .060 39 132 171 1.290 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia China India Japan Korea Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 177 252 429 203 385 588 222 344 566 230 366 596 235 386 621 235 380 615 53 345 158 20 576 54 360 167 15 596 55 380 156 10 601 56 430 137 4 627 57 450 140 4 651 58 455 140 5 658 120 65 185 70 51 121 42 53 95 57 43 100 55 48 103 70 50 120 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 3.27 25 128 153 980 90 24 859 973 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 83 25 786 894 72 13 824 909 76 13 889 978 86 12 965 1. official statistics.270 41 146 187 1.296 3. Notes: (p) Preliminary.025 33 125 158 1.895 Source: FAS post reports.889 3.652 3. (1) Includes NDM and SMP production.

Notes: (p) Preliminary.765 2.728 2.012 3. (f) Forecast. (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .837 3.211 Source: FAS post reports. and office research.153 288 465 210 150 30 95 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States 1/ Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .080 252 425 205 152 24 95 1.27 9 134 143 808 62 176 454 692 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 84 190 568 842 72 168 434 674 70 207 444 721 76 237 530 843 71 238 486 795 17 135 152 596 18 144 162 749 19 163 182 807 21 170 191 735 22 176 198 735 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total 180 21 201 175 32 207 159 41 200 128 23 151 125 29 154 140 30 170 Asia China India Indonesia Japan Korea Philippines Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 49 1 50 50 1 51 51 3 54 68 3 71 70 3 73 71 4 75 107 310 156 170 26 65 834 124 355 172 152 25 89 917 144 390 184 162 21 97 998 186 410 197 157 38 92 1.238 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 2. official statistics.SKIMMED MILK POWDER CONSUMPTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.149 3. (1) Includes NDM and SMP.

Notes: (p) Preliminary. official statistics.SKIMMED MILK POWDER IMPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1. (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 . (f) Forecast. and office research.030 1.061 Source: FAS post reports.27 0 7 7 7 0 11 11 6 0 14 14 4 0 31 31 0 0 29 29 0 0 30 30 0 4 152 1 157 3 165 0 168 3 155 0 158 3 194 0 197 3 225 3 231 2 225 0 227 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total North Africa Algeria Asia China India Indonesia Japan Korea Philippines Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 4 1 5 4 4 8 5 3 8 5 2 7 4 5 9 5 4 9 55 0 159 32 5 80 331 70 3 178 34 10 112 407 89 20 189 30 8 110 446 130 32 196 27 34 111 530 195 25 205 32 20 105 582 230 0 215 32 25 110 612 105 93 98 129 105 110 75 0 75 105 8 113 117 2 119 71 2 73 70 4 74 70 3 73 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 687 806 847 967 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America Canada Mexico United States 1/ Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union . (1) Includes NDM and SMP.

140 1. (f) Forecast.647 1.SKIMMED MILK POWDER EXPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.073 1. official statistics.527 1.340 1. Notes: (p) Preliminary. (2) Year ending June 30 for the period 2007-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .27 14 1 15 179 13 1 14 231 20 0 20 379 18 0 18 518 19 0 19 585 20 0 20 555 11 0 391 402 10 0 248 258 6 0 384 390 10 0 436 446 10 0 455 465 10 0 442 452 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total 15 44 59 0 27 27 0 14 14 0 22 22 0 23 23 0 23 23 Asia China India Indonesia Philippines Sub-total Oceania Australia 2/ New Zealand Sub-total 120 242 362 167 408 575 160 343 503 140 362 502 159 380 539 189 390 579 1 35 5 15 56 0 15 5 15 35 0 18 1 15 34 0 3 1 17 21 0 3 1 12 16 0 5 1 15 21 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 North America Canada Mexico United States 1/ Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union . and office research. (1) Includes NDM and SMP.650 Source: FAS post reports.

and office research.826 4.210 74 0 1.270 1.166 1. (f) Forecast.WHOLE MILK POWDER PRODUCTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.155 70 0 1.284 95 30 125 50 16 66 40 15 55 70 10 80 65 11 76 65 11 76 TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 3.559 3.289 140 1.030 62 0 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Chile Sub-total European Union .141 1.250 1.033 1.407 Source: FAS post reports.170 977 56 0 1.100 66 0 1.415 1.094 148 1.390 145 1.27 200 572 80 852 840 23 23 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 27 27 32 32 30 30 26 26 25 25 210 473 55 738 790 210 500 63 773 780 309 515 73 897 685 318 531 69 918 660 329 549 69 947 660 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia China Indonesia Taiwan Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total 142 677 819 137 768 905 147 947 1.120 48 2 1. (1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2006-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .092 1.829 3.295 4. official statistics.147 4. Notes: (p) Preliminary.225 1.

official statistics.072 1. (1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2006-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .783 160 172 182 190 180 185 130 9 139 71 12 83 79 9 88 88 9 97 81 10 91 81 10 91 Source: FAS post reports.WHOLE MILK POWDER CONSUMPTION: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.427 45 1 28 2.090 954 91 9 18 1.613 128 11 31 1.790 40 2 29 2.659 1.373 112 10 26 1. and office research. Notes: (p) Preliminary.887 42 2 30 2.356 28 1 28 2.27 75 512 587 356 54 517 571 331 75 532 607 335 89 569 658 297 91 585 676 277 92 603 695 282 14 14 35 35 29 29 27 27 19 19 23 23 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total North Africa Algeria Asia China Indonesia Philippines Taiwan Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 27 1 28 2.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .064 106 9 28 1.521 1.932 41 2 31 3.207 1.589 1.493 126 10 30 1. (f) Forecast.433 118 6 32 1.

(f) Forecast.WHOLE MILK POWDER IMPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1. (1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2006-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 . and office research.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Sub-total European Union .27 1 23 24 1 1 57 58 1 0 37 37 2 0 55 55 2 0 56 56 2 0 57 57 2 16 16 18 18 7 7 5 5 5 5 8 8 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total North Africa Algeria Asia China Indonesia Philippines Taiwan Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 13 1 14 404 15 1 16 615 15 2 17 713 13 1 14 734 9 1 10 750 10 1 11 815 46 44 45 16 151 177 50 36 28 291 326 50 40 26 442 320 52 30 32 434 365 56 32 30 483 410 58 34 31 533 153 200 167 203 175 185 45 0 45 30 1 31 41 0 41 20 1 21 18 1 19 18 1 19 Source: FAS post reports. official statistics. Notes: (p) Preliminary.

(f) Forecast.704 116 1.064 1.110 1.226 1. official statistics.593 133 818 951 1.295 1.WHOLE MILK POWDER EXPORTS: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1.000 Metric Tons 2008 North America United States Sub-total South America Argentina Brazil Chile Sub-total European Union .27 138 83 15 236 485 25 25 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (f) 2013 9 9 10 10 8 8 12 12 10 10 157 13 14 184 460 128 5 9 142 447 201 1 14 216 390 231 2 14 247 385 239 3 14 256 380 Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Sub-total Asia China Philippines Sub-total Oceania Australia 1/ New Zealand Sub-total TOTAL SELECTED COUNTRIES 111 607 718 1.409 2.093 62 36 98 10 27 37 3 30 33 9 24 33 10 22 32 11 23 34 10 21 31 9 5 14 2 6 8 2 2 4 2 2 4 2 2 4 Source: FAS post reports. Notes: (p) Preliminary. (1) Year ending June 30 for the period 2006-2008 GCAD/OGA/FAS Dec 2012 .877 110 1.015 114 1.335 2. and office research.655 115 949 1.225 1.