THE QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN REAL-TIME: AN ANALYSIS OF THE REVISIONS OVER THE LAST DECADE

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Fátima Cardoso** | António Rua**

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Articles

Abstract In this article, the revisions of the Portuguese Quarterly National Accounts over the last decade are analyzed. We assess the real-time behaviour of GDP estimates and corresponding expenditure and supply side components. In particular, we focus on the revisions up to one year after the release of the first estimate as well as on the revisions resulting from the inclusion of the Annual National Accounts. In the case of GDP, the reliability of the flash estimate, more recently made available by INE, is also assessed. The results for GDP suggest that the revisions up to one year are not significant although the revisions can be larger when the Annual National Accounts are included. The expenditure components related with external trade present the largest revisions while the supply side estimates are more fragile than those from the expenditure side.

1. Introduction
The Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) constitutes one of the most important pieces of information regarding the economic developments of a given country. It includes estimates for the major macroeconomic variables and represents the most updated overall picture concerning the economic situation, which serves as basis for macroeconomic projections as well as for policy-making. However, the national accounts are subject to revisions throughout time which reflect the arrival of new information as well as methodological changes so as to improve its quality. The importance of the national accounts and the need to be as timely as possible, lead inevitably to revisions as the first estimates will always have a preliminary nature. Given its relevance in the economic short-term analysis, the evaluation of its realtime reliability becomes crucial. The assessment of reliability relates to the issue of measuring how close an initial estimate is to subsequent estimates and not to discuss the degree of approximation of this estimate to the reality that intends to measure. The analysis of the revisions consists in comparing an estimate available at a given point in time with the one which will be available afterwards for the same reference period. Note that the revisions make part of the statistical production process and reflect not only the arrival of new information as well as the revisions policy of the statistical authorities. Hence, one should not conclude that an estimate subject to smaller revisions is necessarily better than other more revised. However, as the presence of significant revisions may harm the economic situation assessment and the corresponding forecasting exercise, it is important to quantify the revisions magnitude. According to Aruoba (2008), a good initial estimate (“well-behaved” revisions) results in revisions that are not very significant (both in size and volatility) and unpredictable, that is, the revisions should not present a systematic behaviour.

* The opinions expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de Portugal or the Eurosystem. Any errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. ** Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

In turn. The article is organized as follows. For example. However. as well as the revisions to the quarterly estimates due to the 1 For example. the methodology used to compile the QNA. GDP. the Taylor rule. i. . Thus. In section 2. In the Portuguese case. in particular. Meader II 138 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 (2007) for the United Kingdom or Kholodim and Silivesstivs (2009) for Germany. The analysis of revisions to the QNA will be performed resorting to a set of descriptive statistics commonly used in such studies..1 A recent overview of this strand of literature can be found in Croushore (2011). there may be minor revisions due to seasonal adjustment. the period examined runs from the 4th quarter of 2002 up to the 1st quarter of 2011.. is indirect. This section provides a more comprehensive analysis. The existence of such revisions resulted in a growing interest in evaluating its impact on various areas of macroeconomic analysis. the QNA are revised so as to be coherent with these annual values. the fact that GDP is subject to revisions led the Bank of England. The inclusion of ANA (which are estimated with a greater degree of detail and information) may lead to more substantial revisions in the quarterly values of a given year. (2004) and McKenzie (2006) for comparative analysis of GDP revisions for several OECD countries and ECB (2009) for the euro area. in the case of the UK.The analysis of revisions of macroeconomic data. that is. corresponding to the period of regular dissemination of the QNA with the current framework. periods of interruption in the release of the QNA. the analysis of the revisions in that sample period faces several problems including: the change of the European system of accounts from ESA79 to ESA95 in the 2nd quarter of 2000. In turn. the type of revisions and the measures used are discussed. the INE releases a flash estimate for GDP 45 days after the end of the reference quarter. Orphanides (2001. there is a wide range of studies that look at various countries the issue of revisions to GDP and its components. In section 3. which justifies an assessment of this advance estimate for GDP. we analyze the revisions to the main economic aggregate. Orphanides and van Norden (2002) analyze the impact on estimating the output gap and Stark and Croushore (2002) evaluate their relevance in the context of forecasting.S. it is based on the relationship between the values of the Annual National Accounts (ANA) already released and associated indicators. for example.e. in particular the main aggregates of QNA. implying a series break due to methodological and conceptual changes. estimates according to ESA 95 with the first estimate (i.e. the arrival of annual reference values may have an impact not only in the estimates of that year but in the whole series due to potential adjustments in the estimated coefficients. that is. under the release of its macroeconomic projections. 2003) discusses the importance of revisions in the implementation and interpretation of monetary policy rules. this article intends to revisit the real-time reliability of the QNA by considering a homogeneous sample period. Faust (2005) analyzes the revisions to the first estimates of GDP for the G-7 countries. Besides these two types of revisions. It should be noted that this topic has also received attention from international institutions such as the OECD and the ECB. Whenever ANA are released. Aruoba (2008) for the U. to incorporate such information in the construction of the so-called fan chart for GDP in order to reflect the uncertainty about the past (see Bank of England (2007)). that is. See for example. available quarterly. revisions to the QNA are essentially of two types: revisions to the associated indicators that underlie the estimation of the QNA and changes to the annual reference values (with the release of new ANA). that is. See. has been widely discussed in literature. the change in the release calendar with the first estimate being released 70 days after the reference period instead of 120 days starting from the 4th quarter of 2002. unaffected by the above mentioned problems. Moreover. Discarding substantial methodological changes. José (2004) evaluated the revisions of the Portuguese QNA for the period between the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 1st quarter of 2004. In fact. detailed QNA) being released 70 days after the reference period. the data and methodology are described. Therefore. Moreover.. In particular. including also the analysis of the flash estimate revisions. The flash estimate will be analyzed separately. since the 1st quarter of 2007. Ahmad et al. at least for part of the aggregates.

The data to be analysed include GDP and its main expenditure components as well as Gross Value Added (GVA) and corresponding breakdown by main branches of activity. for GDP. are presented. the revisions to the GDP quarterly figures of a given year. Since estimates are likely to be revised in each QNA release. . it is important to have an idea of how much the quarterly figures may change after the inclusion of the respective ANA. since it is only available for GDP and for a shorter sample period (from the 1st quarter of 2007 onwards) it is analyzed separately. In addition. In the current format. by considering a limited time interval of revision (which also allows not to lose many observations in the analysis). Data and methodology The first estimate of the QNA for a given quarter (including expenditure and supply side disaggregation) is currently released 70 days after the end of the reference period. On the other hand. we can analyze revisions vis-à-vis the previous quarter estimate or vis-à-vis the first estimate. it includes different revision horizons for each quarter vis-à-vis the first estimate. a second estimate for the quarter t-1. each publication includes a collection of quarterly data2 for the period from the 1st quarter of 1995 to the reference quarter. 139 Articles 2 In real-time data analysis. the values for the most remote quarters are subject to a longer period of revision. available in 34 vintages for the period between the 4th quarter of 2002 (released in March 2003) and the 1st quarter of 2011 (disclosed in June 2011). The analysis of the revisions due to the inclusion of the ANA is also done. the latest estimate). This estimate may be revised in the following publications which are released with a quarterly periodicity. Therefore. a third estimate for the quarter t-2 and so on. are also released. the revisions are less comparable. the ANA are usually released with a lag of more than one year after the disclosure of the first estimate for the fourth quarter of the corresponding year. For subsequent quarters. With such database it is possible to analyze several types of revisions. Hence. Hence. including the various components on the expenditure and supply sides. When considering the most recently published data (that is. the data collections corresponding to each publication are usually called vintages. we focus on the revisions up to one year after the release of the first estimate. it minimizes the inclusion of revisions due to more significant methodological changes (as. which affect the whole series) and that do not reflect the regular revision process. In this case. On one hand. Concerning the flash estimate (which is released 45 days after the end of the respective quarter). as annual figures have been released with different time lags.inclusion of the ANA. we evaluate the revisions to the flash estimate vis-à-vis the first estimate (which is disclosed 70 days after the end of the quarter). as well as the deflators. although more briefly. the estimates have not yet been subject to the potentially more substantial revisions due to the inclusion of the respective ANA. We also assess. only revisions with the same horizon for all quarters will be analyzed and therefore the revision to the first estimate vis-à-vis the currently available estimate will not be considered. after the inclusion of the respective ANA. we analyze the revisions to the rates of change in volume of the main aggregates of QNA. base changes. The first revision for a given quarter is the difference between the second and the first estimates. for the GDP main components as well as for GVA and its breakdown by activity branches. the last quarterly figures are not yet subject to any annual restriction imposed by the ANA while the more remote quarterly figures already incorporate the corresponding ANA. for example. the impact of the inclusion of the ANA on the quarterly values of the corresponding year. simultaneously with the release of the first estimate of quarter t. In fact. II 2. Although in this case. Section 4 presents the main conclusions. within this time frame of revision. Moreover. In particular.

4. Other measures are also calculated. UR. Since revisions of opposite sign tend to cancel out. see. UR is higher the lower the correlation between the initial and final estimates) and UD is the residual component. we calculate some measures of volatility such as the standard deviation of the revisions and the noise-to-signal ratio. for example. there is a relationship between the revisions to the yoy and qoq rates of change for a given release. in order to take into account the scale of the variable. that is. suggesting a systematic behaviour of the revisions. To assess this. It should be noted that. Alternatively. In addition. UR is the proportion that results from the correlation between the initial and final estimates being different from 1 (in particular. the ratio between the absolute average of the revisions and the absolute average of the variable (in this case. i. which is the average of the squared revisions (for a description of a set of measures including this decomposition. . UM is the proportion of MSR due to mean revision not being equal to zero. it is also desirable that the revisions have a low volatility. respectively). Besides a small mean. and UD) such that UM+UR+UD=100. as the yoy relates to the qoq rates of change. Di Fonzo (2005) and McKenzie (2006)).. This measure can be interpreted as the average proportion of the estimate that is revised. that is. the ratio between the standard deviation of the revisions and the standard deviation of the final estimate. are analysed. which takes into account the volatility of the variable itself. revisions to both the year-on-year (yoy) and quarter-on-quarter (qoq) rates of change. the proportion not caused by systematic differences between the estimates before and after revision. Thus. i. As a sign indicator. the less biased is the initial estimate. The proportion of positive revisions can also be seen as an indicator of the sign of the revision of the initial estimate (a high percentage of positive or negative revisions suggests a bias of the initial estimate). a test on the significance of the mean is performed.e. A revision to the yoy rate of change roughly corresponds to a weighted sum of the revisions to the four qoq rates of change (between quarter t and quarter t-4) implicit in the vintage of quarter t.The analysis of the revisions is conducted using a wide range of statistical measures commonly used in this kind of studies. In the next section. let us consider the revision as being the difference between the rates of change (on year-on-year terms or on quarter-on-quarter terms) of the initial and final estimates II 140 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 (here understood as the estimates before and after revision. For ease of exposition. as the sign concordance for the rates of change (when comparing the initial and final estimates) as well as the direction (acceleration/deceleration) concordance. in volume terms as well as deflators. the mean revision is computed. we present the decomposition of the mean squared revision (MSR). This measure is decomposed into 3 components (UM. we also calculate the relative mean absolute revision. we test whether or not the mean is statistically different from zero.e. Most of the analysis conducted in section 3 focuses on the rates of change in volume terms but revisions to the deflators are also briefly discussed in subsection 3. A statistically significant and positive (negative) mean revision indicates that the variable was under(over)estimated in the initial estimate. in terms of the rates of change) corresponding to the final estimate. Reliable estimates imply small values for UM and UR and a high value for UD. the average of the absolute value of the revisions. The closer to zero is the mean. that is. the main indicator used to measure the size of revisions is the mean absolute revision.

The chart also includes the rates of change according to the latest release. the averages are also close to zero. However. GDP revisions due to the inclusion of the ANA will also be briefly discussed in subsection 3. we have chosen to focus the analysis on the revisions up to one year.0 -3.0 Per cent Per cent Year-on-year rate of change 2.1 GDP II 141 Articles 3. particularly for the period prior to 2007.0 -5.02 p.3. as the latest year for which there are ANA is 2008.0 Quarter-on-quarter rate of change -1. in the case of the qoq rate of change.5 Current estimate 2nd estimate 4th estimate 1st estimate 3rd estimate Estimate 1 year later 2002Q4 2003Q4 2004Q4 2005Q4 2006Q4 2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 Source: INE. Given the different nature of the revisions and in order to analyze relatively comparable revisions.0 -0.0 1. In the remaining revisions. implicit in the first estimate of each quarter as well as in the following estimates up to one year after the first estimate. IN VOLUME 3. there are some noteworthy differences.p. the INE has conducted base changes3 accompanied by revisions of the entire series which may have had greater impact in more remote quarters. When comparing the latest version (current estimate) with the estimates released up to one year after the first estimate. . Revisions 3.5 1.5 0.1. In particular. being after one year 0. the last vintage used in this study.p.0 0.0 -2. One can see that the various estimates show a very similar evolution. However. as mentioned above.1 First estimate and following estimates up to one year Chart 1 shows the yoy and qoq rates of change of GDP. 3 The change to the 2000 base occurred with the release of the 2nd quarter of 2005 and the change to the 2006 base took place with the release of 1st quarter of 2010.0 2002Q4 2003Q4 2004Q4 2005Q4 2006Q4 2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 Current estimate 2nd estimate 4th estimate 1st estimate 3rd estimate Estimate 1 year later -1.0 2. whereas the quarterly estimates for the period after 2008 are still not subject to any annual constraint. The mean revision to the first estimate of the yoy growth rate is zero and only marginally positive (0. Chart 1 ESTIMATES OF QUARTERLY GDP. which translates into a high correlation coefficient between them. None of the values obtained for the mean revision is statistically different from zero.1.5 -2. in volume terms.0 0. Table 1 presents the main measures concerning the revisions to the rates of change in volume (up to one year after the first estimate) vis-à-vis the estimate released in the previous quarter. it should be remembered that.3.08 p.5 -1.0 -4. as well as the accumulated revision after one year.0 1.p.) in the case of the qoq growth rate.01 p. that is.0 -2. in the case of the yoy rate of change and 0. the differences between the latest version and the first estimate reflect a revision time frame which is not comparable across different quarters.

06 1.22 0.09 0.05 0.24 0.26 96. revisions to the 2nd are the revisions from the 2nd estimate to the 3rd estimate and so on.07 0.53 0.61 91.15 0.II 142 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 Table 1 Year-on-year rates of change Quarter-on-quarter rates of change DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF REVISIONS TO QUARTELY GDP.01 0.00 0.91 0.83 0.09 -0.01 0. * correspond to a value statistically different from zero with a significance level of 1%.11 0.98 0.07 -0.19 -0.00 0.50 0.33 0.48 6.17 -0.03 -0.36 -0.10 0.17 0.07 0.05 0.11 0.12 -0.06 0.56 1.15 0.25 -0.41*** 0.04 -0.00 0.18 0.87 0.43 0.08 -0.20 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.09 0.93 0.55 0.21 2.09 0.18 -0.89 0.07 0.32 0.44 0.09 -0.90 14.94 2.97 0.91 0.61 0.08 -0.01 98.01 0.97 0.03 0.13 0.88 82.28* 0.12 0.06 0.17 -0.02 99.14 0.15 0.93 0.90 0.17 1.54 0.19 0.18 -0.04 0.07 0.09 -0.42 -0.02 0.43 0.10 0.97 0.00 0.97 0.30 -0.15 0.78 1.10 0.57 90.10 0.24 0.13 0.24 0.10 0.01 0.08 0.05 0.21 0.22 0.02 0.64 73.01 0.87 0.23 0.00 0.07 -0.14 0.43 90.79 8.43 0.47 0.39 1.00 26.07 0.57 0.01 -0.01 0.02 2.93 1.17 0.46 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.07 0. . **.24 Mean Mean absolute revision Relative mean absolute revision Minimum 1st quartile Median 3rd quartile Maximum Standard deviation Noise-to-signal ratio 1st order autocorrelation coefficient Proportion of positive revisions Sign concordance Direction concordance Mean squared revision UM UR UD Root mean squared revision Notes: Revisions to 1st estimate correspond to the revisions between the 1st estimate and the 2nd estimate.07 0.09 -0.12 0.08 0.00 1.55 -0.36 0.97 0.25 0.14 97.15 0.11 0.78 0. 5% and 10%.19 -0.97 0.61 0.52 1. after 1 year).11 0.01 0.03 1.22 -0.11 0.16 0.31* 0.06 0.37 -0.14 0.23 0.02 0.01 0.10 83. Revisions 1 year later correspond to the revisions from the 1st estimate to the 5th estimate (that is.11 0.01 0.87 0.44 0.22 0.14 0.30 -0. IN VOLUME Revisions to 1st Revisions to 2nd Revisions to 3rd Revisions to 4th Revisions one Revisions to 1st Revisions to 2nd Revisions to 3rd Revisions to 4th Revisions one estimate estimate estimate estimate year later estimate estimate estimate estimate year later 0.17 0.02 0. ***.38 0.26 -0.13 0.12 16.31* 0.24 0.05 0.02 -0.41 7. respectively.26 0.08 0.

Furthermore. Moreover. the results point to a high information content of the flash estimate concerning the first estimate.00 -2. The mean squared revision is low in both cases and the revisions are “well behaved” given the high weight of the UD component. the first estimate. The percentage of positive revisions after one year is around 50 percent for both rates.1.50 -1.00 2007Q1 Revision (p.p.2 p.00 1. IN VOLUME Year-on-year rate of change 3. Chart 2 shows the GDP yoy and qoq rates of change. (Table 2).00 0. The largest revision in both cases occurred in the 4th quarter of 2008 (around 0. for the yoy and qoq rates of change.p.p. i.00 -3. Both in terms of sign and acceleration/deceleration.00 0. being about 0. one can conclude that the volatility of GDP revisions is relatively low. There is a high correlation between the two estimates. the revisions to the GDP quarterly growth rates are not significant and do not present any undesirable properties based on the results obtained with the measures commonly used in this type of analysis. these results should be interpreted with additional caution. so there is no predominance in terms of the sign of the revisions. 3).00 -0.p.p.50 2007Q1 1. Chart 2 FLASH ESTIMATE OF QUARTELY GDP.50 1.00 -4. weakly autocorrelated.which indicates that there is no bias in the different estimates. after one year for both the yoy and qoq rates of change. From the results obtained for both the standard deviation and the noise-to-signal ratio. since the sample period is relatively short.00 -5.) Flash estimate 1st estimate -2. given the lower number of observations available for evaluation. in volume. Overall. II 143 Articles 3. The revisions to the flash estimate present a standard deviation and a noise-to-signal ratio relatively low. Note that the results presented for the flash estimate revisions are not strictly comparable with those presented in the previous section.) Flash estimate 1st estimate Quarter-on-quarter rate of change Per cent 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Per cent 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Source: INE.4 p.1 p. indicating that the evolution is not significantly changed after each revision.2 Flash estimate In this section. in general. and the subsequent estimate. respectively) at the time of the revision of several short-term indicators as result of a base change and the adoption of the new classification of economic activities (NACE rev. . In absolute terms..00 2.00 -1.3 and 0. we analyze the revisions to the flash estimate after the release of the first estimate of the QNA.00 -2.e. recording a correlation coefficient close to 1 both for the yoy and qoq rates of change.50 Revision (p.00 -1.50 0. the concordance between the various estimates is quite high. The mean revision is approximately zero in both cases and the absolute mean is about 0. implicit in the flash estimate for each quarter. In summary. the various revisions are. indicating no systematic pattern. the mean revision is higher in the first revision than in the following revisions.

p. which may explain the larger impact in terms of revisions. the ANA were published with a provisional nature due to the expected change to the 2000 base.05 -0.12 Quarter-on-quarter rate of change 0.00 0.14 0. In general.09 -0.6 p.00 22.5 p.03 0.25 0.82 0. For 2004 and 2005. These revisions have a different nature from those resulting from the mere update of the associated indicators because they reflect an information set substantially wider. which suggests a convergence of the QNA over time to the annual values to be released under the ANA.16 -0.36 0.17 -0.p.77 98.87 0. 4 For the years 2002 and 2003. the GDP growth rate was revised by around 0.06 0. We analyze the impact of the inclusion of the ANA on the QNA estimates.22 0.06 -0.28 0. With the publication of the ANA.75 77.1. the QNA are revised so as to reflect these annual values. In general. It should be noted that 2004 and 2007 correspond to years of base change.42 0. with the inclusion of the ANA. 2005 and 2007 were characterized by a substantial revision of the rates of change of the QNA after the release of the respective annual accounts.14 II 144 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 3. which is the latest year available at the time this article was done.Table 2 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF REVISIONS TO THE FLASH ESTIMATE Mean Mean absolute revision Relative mean absolute revision Minimum 1st quartile Median 3rd quartile Maximum Standard deviation Noise-to-signal 1st order autocorrelation coefficient Proportion of positive revisions Sign concordance Direction concordance Mean squared revision UM UR UD Root mean squared revision Year-on-year rate of change -0.02 0.09 0.p.47 0. . the years 2004. were released with a lag of 4 to 10 quarters (Table 3) after the release of the fourth quarter of the respective year (and corresponding annual preliminary estimate).01 0. respectively. with several methodological changes in the annual accounts. in both years vis-à-vis the release of the QNA immediately preceding the disclosure of the ANA.82 1. the revisions vis-à-vis the immediately preceding release are smaller than those recorded vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate. The ANA for the period from 2002 up to 2008.21 -0.00 0.5 and 0.07 0.01 0. when compared with the yoy rates of change implicit in the annual preliminary estimate of the respective year and 0. In the case of GDP.12 0.19 -0.4 We analyze two types of revisions: i) vis-à-vis the immediately preceding publication and ii) vis-à-vis the first estimate of the last quarter of the respective year (and corresponding annual preliminary estimate).01 0.10 0.00 0. resorting to statistical sources only available on an annual frequency. vis-à-vis both the previous release and the release by the first time of the fourth quarter of that year. In Chart 3. the inclusion of the ANA implies larger revisions than those observed up to one year after the first estimate. the average revisions were about 0.2 p.08 -0. we present the revisions to the yoy rate of change of the 4 quarters of each year due to the inclusion of the ANA.3 Revisions due to the inclusion of the ANA When INE releases the first estimate for the last quarter of each year. it is implicitly provided the first estimate for the annual GDP of the corresponding year (the annual preliminary estimate which results from the aggregation of the quarterly values).01 0.41 1. For the average of the quarters of 2007.

most components record a higher value than that of GDP.60 2002Q1 Percentage points 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 Revision vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate Revision vis-à-vis the previous estimate Average annual revisions vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate Average annual revisions vis-à-vis the previous estimate 3. with a significance level of 5 per cent.20 0. the discussion of the results concerning revisions will focus on the yoy rates of change. most commonly used in the short-term economic analysis in Portugal. in volume.40 -0. In general. respectively..80 0. In these tables. Among the components which 5 The case of the revisions accumulated after one year regarding imports is an exception.00 0. i.00 -0. the first revision which the values of GDP components are subject to and for the revisions accumulated after one year.e.40 0.20 -0. Only private consumption and the contribution of changes in inventories to GDP growth have a slightly lower value. The results for the yoy and qoq rates of change. .5 However.60 0. In terms of mean absolute revision. are shown in Tables 4 and 5. It should be noted that the findings are also similar for these two types of revision so no distinction will be done when analyzing the results. we report the statistical measures for the revisions to the first estimate.2 Expenditure components For the sake of the exposition that follows and because the findings are qualitatively similar for the qoq rates of change.Table 3 RELEASE CALENDAR OF ANNUAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (ANA) Reference year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 First release of QNA after ANA release Lag vis-à-vis the release of the 4th quarter of the corresponding year (in quarters) Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q2 2007 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 7 4 10 8 6 9 9 II 145 Articles Chart 3 REVISIONS DUE TO THE INCLUSION OF ANNUAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 1. the mean revision after one year is higher than that observed in the case of the first revision indicating that the revisions do not cancel out over time. GDP components present a positive mean revision although not statistically different from zero.

28 0.61 3.52 0.39 0.66 7.13 2.61 0.44 84.03 1.03 0.90 0.49 0.67 0.41* Notes: (a) Contribution to GDP rate of change.64 1.94 0.15 0.34 35.00 1.91 0.15 10.23 15.12 0.70 0.49 6.48 87.52 0.63 1.96 0.65 1.79 0.56 0.13 0.95 1. IN VOLUME Mean Mean absolute revision Revisions to the 1st estimate GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport equipment GFCF construction GFCF other Change in inventories(a) Exports Imports 0.06 1.25 0.58 87.91 0.65 0.53 15.15 0.38 0.01 0.02 0.36 90.51 53.18 1.25 0.20 0.41 0. 5% and 10%.81 0.28 3.26 0.83 0.42 1.36 0.25 0.04 -0.62 4.50 0.31 0.24 1.61 0.16 0.78 6.90 0.22 84. **.95 0.64 0.94 0.58 0.00 0.46 0.15 0.47 2.76 0.38 28.91 0.97 0.67 0.32 0.60 0.07 0.16 0.04 1.37 0.62 98.26 0.85 99.33 0.83 7.17 0.08 0.08 3.13 95.71 0.94 0.12 0.79 1.97 0.51 0.85 0.43 96.85 0.94 1.00 0. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade.00 0.94 0.67 0.08 2.87 0.89 1.03 2.35 1.11 0.21 1.41 0.21 0.58 0.01 5.33 62.55 0.26 12.55 0.11 0.51 0.64 0.88 0.78 0. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade.17 0.00 1.22 0.53 0.21 3.19 1.77 0.55 0.41 0.90 1.00 1.94 51. insurance and real estate Other services 0.56 0.45 0.12 2.23 0.68 1.91 0.95 0.90 0.57 0.97 0.13 -0.22 0.70 0.52 0.02 87.97 0.60 0.85 0.67 0.82 86.26 0.95 40.63 0.39 0.38 8.12 0.11 0.81 0.12 0.43 0.54 0.31 0.05* -0.13 87.07 0.49 0.41 0.61 0.97 0.24 2.83 15.83 0.90 13.94 0.94 1. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.47 1.85 0.62 0.93 1.94 0.28 0.97 1.14 10.43 0.18 0.11 -0.67 30.97 0.39 0.07 0.19 0.73 0.20 0.25 0.28 3.91 0.24 1.11 0.80 0.61 0.74 89.28 72.70 0.29 0.99 93.37 0.01 98.64 0.24 8.74 5.97 0.58 0.20 0.00 0.91 6.80 0.36 0.63 0.43 0.24 1.93 0.17 0.60 94.29 15.00 0.II 146 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 Table 4 Relative mean absolute revision 0.16 0.41 0.90 0.92 0.53 0.94 0.66 0.56 0.91 0.37 10.79 56.15 11.83 0.00 1.17** -0.40 64.94 0.87 7.39 0.61 5.48 0.22 0.49* 0. insurance and real estate Other services 0.10 0.22 0.97 0.87 0.97 0.57 92.93 92.47 0.88 0.91 0.02 0.08 Revisions one year later GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport material GFCF construction GFCF other Change in inventories(a) Exports Imports 0.07 0.80 0.02 1.37 0.17 0.93 0.09 80.15 0. * correspond to a value statistically different from zero with a significance level of 1%.10 0.25 -0.27 0.01 1.70 1.37 0.97 0.04 -0.18 1.91 0.14 10.22 0.53 0.44 0.21 1.83 3.10 0.63 0.29 0.01 0.69 1.76 96.87 0.16 1.15 0.45 0.19 0.80 10.64 8.73 0.53 0.36 0.20 0.55 0.00 0.33 3.77 0.99 0.00 -0.05 6.00 0.14 0.14 1.26 0.43 0.11 0.18 0.15 0.49 0.48 0.95 2.91 63.27 2.16 1.79 0.90 0.14 0.88 1.15 93.93 0.00 0.54 1.28 0.91 0.74 0.94 1.01 1.25 1.01 0.91 0.09 0.97 2.08 0.39 17.11 0.09 1.01 96.08 0.07 0.23 83.80 0.61 1.03 0.94 0.53 0.94 0.00 1.31 0.61 1.52 0.07 1.97 0.15 0.20 0.57 0.91 0.25 0.59 0. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial.30 0.63 14.50 0.00 1.94 0.08 0.97 1.37 0.91 8.93 1.41 0.60 61.90 0.23 0. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.03 0.00 0.10 0.43 0.13 0.76 0.98 GVA Agriculture.44 0.87 0.08 0.61 0.90 0.97 0.69 21.10 0.94 0.36 1.23 98.19 0.00 0.19 29.47 0.18 0.87 2.53 84.85 0.20 0.27 1.63 0.67 1.98 1.61 2.26 0.09 0.27 1.17 0.26 0.41 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.51 27.21 0.34 11.97 1.23 1.03 91.06 88.00 0.12 0.83 0.25 5.88 0. ***.25** 0.93 0.15 0.94 1.09 0.43 2.70 73.22 0.02 0.66 1.80 0.90 7.09 0.37 1.25 5.40 6.36 1.06 90.00 0.56 85.03 2.07 0.83 0.00 0.91 0.55 1.60 0.38 19.90 1.61 12.93 0.72 2.15 0.50 96.40 6.77 0.11 1.86 2.25 0.61 1.00 1.71 83.18 0.18 0.10 0.56 3.08 4.52 7.85 Standard Noise-todeviation signal ratio Proportion of positive revisions Sign concordance Direction concordance Mean squared revision UM UR UD Root mean squared revision REVISIONS TO THE YEAR-ON-YEAR RATES OF CHANGE.25 0.96 3. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial.70 6.94 1.07 -0.79 8.63 0.00 36.45 77.06 0.23 0.54 0.53 0. respectively.66 0.45 0. .61 0.93 0.27 0.31 0.43 0.37 3.07 0.72** GVA Agriculture.31 0.06 0.99 19.37 0.

91 16.85 0.48 0.52 0.67 0.91 0.81 80.64 0.70 0.21* 0.61 63.94 0.25 0.85 0.90 39.16 0.80 0.18 0.80 0.91 0.52 0.89 0.55 1.66 0.39 0.75 0.46 0.81 72.13 0.52 1.24 1.18 0.80 80.73 98.88 0.43 0.94 0.53 0.94 1.32 0.15 0.94 4.83 7.42 0.73 0.03 0.48 0.84 0.91 0.12 2.30 0.94 0.37 0.29 0.81 0.07 -0.00 0.04 0.88 0.36 0.83 0.93 0.63 0.67 0.45 0.90 0.81 0.64 0.25 0.40 25.35 0. **.67 5.49 0.04 -0.90 0.72 1.88 0.28 0. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.06 0.37 0.38 0.21 15.90 0.33 3.95 39.84 1.86 1.61 83.46 59.22 1.43 0.83 0.29 1.98 90.67 70.43 0.59 0.93 1.32 0.24 14.77 0.61 0.23 0.97 0.24 0.91 0.33 0.63 0.30 90.21 0.99 89.03 0.55 0.88 3.65 0.85 0.29 1. insurance and real estate Other services 0.82 0.59 1.73 0.74 1.83 0.76 4.45 0.23 0.28 0.47 0.61 1.31 0.39 75.57 0.18 0.97 0.25 0. * correspond to a value statistically different from zero with a significance level of 1%.56 0.74 1.59 0.60 29.23 0.13 0.64 94.68 12.43 GVA Agriculture.40 0.66 0.09 1.79 0.74 0. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial.11 0.94 0.04 0.17 0.74 91.05 0.39 78.62 0.20 0.55 0.82 0.04 0.97 0.53 0.94 0.55 1.89 75.76 0.03 0.60 0.02 0.45 0.91 1.45 0.02 -0.59 0.47 0.21 0.12 1.70 2.24 0.38 0.27 1.59 10.88 0.38 0.27 0.87 0.48 0.86 62.00 -0.40 47.87 0.85 0.80 0.28 0. ***.54 0.46 0.66 56.04 0.16 0.07 -0.19 6.00 0.50 1.89 84.85 0.83 57.47 0.79 0.57 0.52 0.23 0.67 99. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial.70 0.20 7.18 0.08 0.99 0. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade.60 0.16 0. IN VOLUME Mean Mean absolute revision Revisions to the 1st estimate GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport equipment GFCF construction GFCF other Change in inventories(a) Exports Imports 0.27 83.94 1.33 0.81 6.19 0.79 4.94 0.47 0.50 0.15 0.17 15. respectively.45 0.84 2.85 0.93 0.63 0.32 0.43 1.31 0.05 0.67 0.66 60.01 0.35 0.07 -0. 5% and 10%.28 0.47 0.60 1.20 0.09 1.67 0.44 6.91 0.15 1.47 0.31 58.17 0.66 69.16 2.80 0.48 0.08 0.97 0.48 0.87 0.37 1.74 0.45 Standard Noise-todeviation signal ratio Proportion of positive revisions Sign concordance Direction concordance Mean squared revision UM UR UD Root mean squared revision REVISIONS TO THE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER RATES OF CHANGE.90 0.Table 5 Relative mean absolute revision 0.28 0.88 0.25 0.17 2.42 0.91 1.21 0.66 0.33 0.28 0.97 0.05 -0.26 0.67 0.13 47.48 0.08 0.43 0.21 0.07 1.48 0.55 83.31 0.85 83.91 0.17 1. insurance and real estate Other services -0.57 0.09 27.67 0.57 0.22 3.91 9.42 0.87 0.38 0.05 1.43 87.23 0.43 0.63 0.55 1.89 0.65 0.33 0.36 0.68 0.01 13.09 -0.32 0.02 41.44 0.23 8.92 0.73 0.05 28.25 2.52 0.51 0.88 0.29 42.85 74.11 24.22 86.25* 0.24 0.67 1.23 0.00 0.29 0.42 0.77 1.90 0.26 0.20 1.87 0.87 0.91 0. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.67 0.07 0.01 -0.06 93.08 95.77 0.68 0.96 0.49 0.60 0.10 2.79 35.37 0.25 0.18 0.38 1.78 80.58 0.23 0.82 0.64 0.42 0.29 0.48* GVA Agriculture.32 0.51 0.16 0.07 -0.03 0.47 1.90 0.83 0.21 0.81 16.48 1.73 0.32 0.83 0.22 0.98 1.24 0.07 0.09 11.65 0.04 0.53 36.83 1.17 0.18 0.59 90.87 90.85 0.81 0.91 0.41 1.37 0.93 0.94 0.47 0.22 0.68 0.35 0.42 92.71 0.44 0.05 0.25 3.30 0.94 0.06 0.64 0.27 0.88 0.49 0.99 18.02 4.62 0.67 0.27 0.00 0.71 11.82 0.76 1.97 0.24 0.31 0.00 0.78 84.69 0.93 0.46 0.70 0.52 21.09 2.80 58.13 12.35 4.94 0.53 0.11 1.54 0.03 1.05 0.10 0.30 0.26 0.43 0.37 0.31 9.83 99.92 0.07 0.42 0.29 7.92 0.10 17.98 0.77 6.10 0. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade.18 0.45 0.98 0.06 0.87 0.88 0.32 8.13 0.21 0.46 0.20 0.22 0.27 0.26 0.90 93.85 0.41 6.80 0.30 1.26 0.75 1.91 0.55 0.35 16.43 0.80 0.25 3.94 0.80 6.05 0.36 0.93 1.17 18.14* Notes: (a) Contribution to GDP rate of change.06 -0.87 0.53 0.18 0.91 0.77 0.24 0.29 0.10 3.38 0.00 0.01 4.83 0.61 0.04 9.01 Revisions one year later GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport material GFCF construction GFCF other Change in inventories(a) Exports Imports 0.48 0.00 27.09 0. II 147 Articles .06 8.91 0.83 0.

00 GFCF Change in inventories Exports Imports | QUARTER-ON-QUARTER RATES OF CHANGE.03 0.62*** 1.69*** 1. The residual component UD is clearly predominant.37** 1.17 0. ships.00 0.71*** 1. one should highlight the items related to external trade. * correspond to a value statistically different from zero with a significance level of 1%.56*** 1. it should be mentioned the cases of both private and public consumption as well as exports and imports with values clearly above 50 percent. which takes into account the variability of the variables.. in the case of the reviTable 6 CORRELATION MATRIX BETWEEN REVISIONS TO FIRST ESTIMATES OF GDP COMPONENTS | YEAR-ON-YEAR RATES OF CHANGE. in terms of mean and correlation between the estimates. in most GDP components. However.32* 0. the percentage of times that exports is revised upwards after a quarter is 67 per cent and rises to 83 per cent after one year. Given that GDP is generally less revised than its components. **. In fact.33* 0. the existence of a significant correlation between revisions may indicate common sources of revision.00 0. For example.00 -0. We find the presence of significant and positive correlations (with a significance level of 5 per cent) between the revisions of imports and those of the other expenditure components.04 0. In particular. the most revised item is GFCF in transport equipment.00 0. 6 Cardoso and Duarte (2009) studied the revisions to nominal exports and imports of goods on a monthly basis. probably reflecting the difficulty in estimating the GFCF non-auto II 148 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 transport equipment (i. suggesting that the revisions do not present a systematic pattern. exports and imports. respectively. .40** 0.00 0.have a higher mean absolute revision. 5% and 10%.27 0. with the external trade statistics as the main source of information. concluding that imports are more revised than exports.09 0. IN VOLUME Private Public consumption consumption Private consumption Public consumption GFCF Change in inventories(a) Exports Imports 1. All expenditure components present a rather high concordance (usually above 90 per cent) both in sign and direction (acceleration/deceleration). the “worst” performance.30 0. Table 6 presents the correlations between the revisions to the first estimate of the main expenditure components.36* 0. In terms of the proportion of positive revisions. Regarding the volatility of the revisions.66*** 1.00 0. being positive and statistically significant in both cases. these components register relatively low values.20 0. considering the noise-to-signal ratio. that is.22 0.45** 1.11 0.28 0.00 0.6 It should be noted that in terms of GFCF.e. the components that register the highest values in terms of standard deviation are GFCF (especially transport equipment). For example.00 0. Concerning the decomposition of the MSR.22 0. public consumption is the variable that has a higher noise-to-signal ratio. it is natural that a revision of imports is also reflected in other variables of the expenditure particularly in those whose estimation is done using imports based indicators.00 0.00 0. with imports being more revised than exports. It should be noted that in terms of the main aggregates. it becomes interesting to analyze whether the revisions between the various components are correlated or not.48 1.34* 1.00 0. this indicator suggests that revisions have a “good” behaviour. for both the yoy and qoq rates of change. IN VOLUME Private Public consumption consumption Private consumption Public consumption GFCF Change in inventories(a) Exports Imports 1. imports have the lowest UD. In fact.42** 1. railways and aircrafts).30 -0.00 GFCF Change in inventories Exports Imports Notes: (a) Contribution to GDP rate of change.13 0.33* 0.09 0. ***.

50 2. Consumption Exports GFCF GDP Imports 1. Naturally. Consumption Inventories Pub.00 1. Regarding GVA as a whole. it should be noted that this only influences one observation in each series of revisions. Chart 4 REVISIONS TO GDP COMPONENTS DUE TO THE INCLUSION OF ANNUAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS | IN ANNUAL TERMS AND IN VOLUME II 149 Articles 3. the mean revision vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate is higher than that recorded over the preceding estimate. this change may have resulted in larger revisions in the quarter of the methodological change. vis-à-vis both the annual preliminary estimate and the immediately preceding released estimate (Chart 4). In general. we tried to ensure intertemporal comparability. On the other hand. As in the previous case. Consumption Inventories Pub.00 0. On the one hand.00 2. Thus. the GFCF is the component most highly correlated with imports (0.” “energy.00 -0. both in terms of mean and absolute mean revisions (Table 4). potentially affecting the results. 3) which led to a reformulation of the breakdown of the GVA by branch of activity in the QNA from the 1st quarter of 2010 onwards.00 -1.00 2.00 1.50 0.50 Priv. Consumption Exports GFCF GDP Imports 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3.50 -1.71).50 Percentage points Revisions vis-à-vis the previous estimate 1.50 -1. In terms of breakdown of GVA. In absolute average terms. similar to what happens to GDP. water supply and sewerage” and “financial and . forestry and fishing. in spite of imports being significantly revised this does not translate into substantial revisions of GDP since part of these revisions is accommodated by revising the remaining expenditure components. from the release of the 4th quarter of 2005 onwards.00 0.50 0. one can conclude that the mean revision for each expenditure component is positive.00 -0.50 2. In addition.3. Although the designations do not always coincide exactly with those of previous series (the designations herein presented refer to the current ones). the change to the 2006 base occurred simultaneously with the adoption of the new classification of economic activities (CAE Rev. However. intermediate consumption of FISIM is broken down by the different branches of activity.50 Percentage points Revisions vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate 3.sions to the yoy rate of change. With regard to revisions arising from the inclusion of the ANA. the components subject to larger revisions include the branches “agriculture. the component that has the highest value vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate is public consumption while GFCF is the most revised item vis-à-vis the immediately preceding estimate. this change only affects the value of the revisions for one quarter so the impact should be relatively limited.00 -1. GVA by branches of activity In what concerns the GVA and its breakdown. rather than being imputed to a single fictitious branch (and being deducted from the sum of the value added of all sectors of activity). the analysis of revisions is affected by some additional problems.50 Priv. the GVA also presents a worse behaviour according to most of the other measures. it is more revised than GDP.

water. and com.. the respective volatility of the revisions is relatively low. Overall.00 -8. GFCF also presents a relatively high volatility. the magnitude of the revisions vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate is similar to that recorded vis-à-vis the immediately preceding estimate which indicates that there is not a convergence to the ANA over II 150 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 time. Concerning volatility. the less revised component is private consumption.00 6. Fin. than those for the expenditure side. in general..real estate activities”. and fishing Construction Industry GVA Trade.00 0.00 0.00 -6. Deflators Tables 7 and 8 present the main statistical measures concerning revisions to the yoy and qoq rates of change of the QNA implicit deflators. high.00 -8. sewerage Construction Industry Agric.00 Percentage points Revisions vis-à-vis the annual preliminary estimate 8. particularly in the components of machinery and transport equipment.00 Energ.00 6. Considering the decomposition of the mean squared revision. . the mean revisions for GDP and expenditure components are relatively small and not statistically different from zero. suggesting there is no systematic pattern of revisions.00 4.00 -2. for. It should also be noted that the size of the revisions is substantially larger for the supply side components than for expenditure items. In general.00 4. One should note that the rates of change of exports and imports deflators are less revised than the corresponding rates of change in volume. Chart 5 REVISIONS TO GVA BY BRANCHES OF ACTIVITY DUE TO INCLUSION OF ANNUAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS | IN ANNUAL TERMS AND IN VOLUME 8. in terms of mean absolute revisions. Transp.00 -4. and com. For GDP. Other services GVA Fin. in terms of revisions. suggesting that revisions to nominal values of external trade are reflected more in volume than in prices. and real estate Other services 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3.07 p...00 Percentage points Revisions vis-à-vis the previous estimate 2. Concerning the inclusion of the ANA. the results suggest that the statistics for the supply side are more fragile. Transp. and fishing Trade. In turn. In terms of absolute revisions. the average of the first revision to the yoy rate of change of the deflator is nil and the average revision after one year is 0. respectively. the deflators of GFCF in machinery and transport equipment are substantially more revised than that of GFCF in construction. hotels and rest. hotels and rest. and real estate 2.00 -2. water. unlike the observed for the expenditure components (Chart 5). public consumption is the variable that has a larger noise-to-signal ratio. which is related to the fact that CPI (which is the main source of information for calculating the private consumption deflator) is not revised. for.00 -6. the percentage of the residual component of the revisions is.p. the noise-to-signal ratio of exports and imports is very small (and even below the one for GDP). The most revised components are public consumption and gross fixed capital formation. sewerage Agric. In terms of GFCF components.e.00 -4.4. i.00 Energ. The high percentage of concordance in terms of sign and direction of rates of change suggest that the first estimate is informative about the evolution of the deflators. taking into account the volatility of external trade deflators..

In terms of expenditure components. which probably relates to the fact of the calculation of the deflator being very dependent on information associated to CPI. with imports being more revised than exports. Regarding the supply side. hotels and restaurants”. The analysis of the revisions to the rates of change in volume also comprises the main components of GDP as well as the GVA and the corresponding breakdown by branches of activity. the branch of activity less subject to revisions is “trade. In contrast. II 151 Articles 4.By components of the GVA. we find that the items associated to external trade present larger revisions. “agriculture. . In particular. Conclusions In this article. the existence of significant and positive correlations between imports and the remaining expenditure components mitigates the impact on GDP in terms of revisions. as well as the impact of the inclusion of the ANA. although they may be subject to larger revisions when the ANA are released. It is possible to conclude that both the flash and the first estimates of GDP are not subject to significant revisions in subsequent estimates. including the flash estimate. we evaluated the real-time behavior of the QNA in Portugal over the last decade. the GVA is more revised than GDP and the data by branches of activity presents a more fragile nature than that of the expenditure side. However. we analyzed the different estimates for the rate of change in volume of GDP. forestry and fishing” is the one with the most significant revisions both in terms of size and volatility.

76 0.13 0.74 0.93 0.12 95.84 0.64 5.83 1.18 0.39 0.34 0.40 0.33 1.69 9.15 0.90 99.40 0.23 0.01 0.79 0.97 0.14 1.71 1.57 2. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade.01 0. **.18 0.66 5.28 0.04 8.II 152 BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Autumn 2011 Table 7 Mean Mean absolute revision Relative mean absolute revision 0.03 -0.19 0.88 0.79 0.21 8.07 0.39 0.27 0.17 0.33 0.57 1.25 0.79 95.77 0.10 0.92 0. 5% and 10%.42 1.08 0.19 8.57 0.10 0.64 0.70 5.29 0.98 0.02 0.34 3.36 0.07 0.80 0.30 0.97 92. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade.34 14.58 71.34 0.48 0.49 1.93 0.53 0.12 0.11 -1.00 0.01 0.44 0.06 1. insurance and real estate Other services Note: ***.60 0.56 0.18 1.00 1.47 1.11 0.26 0.97 0.94 29.85 0.16 81.57 0.29 0.00 1.06 0.39 0.11 0. .14 49.11 0.97 0.43 1.00 0.03 96.44 1.13 0.81 0.79 2.61 1.18 0.45 0.52 0.63 0.00 0.56 0.10 25.74 0.59 5.55 1.61 0.16 0.73 2.04 2.16 0.50 0.07 0.84 0.85 95.05 0.29 0.13 0.03** 0.14 16.90 88.13 7.60 4.06 0.56 0.29 0.48 1.37 0.91 0.58 0.82 0.38 0.59 41.58 0.57 -0.03 0.91 0.70 1. * correspond to a value statistically different from zero with a significance level of 1%.64 0.68 6.61 1.60 0.70 0.08 0.73 43.32 0.25 1.97 0.10 0.61 1.22 3.80 0.29 3.75 0.43 2.30 0.49 2.33 2.72 85.15 0.45 0.08 0.05 9.52 0.15 52.73 48.70 0.23 0.97 1.59 0.94 0.72 0.76 0.80 0.59 1.10 -0.32 2.97 0.45 0.30 1.60 0.44 11.08 1.19 0.00 0.04 0.09 0.53 97.34 3. respectively.75 36.17 1.21 0.21 0.91 0.94 0.73 93.09 20.97 0.39 0.00 0.65 94.64 0.97 0.80 1.74 28.75 0.52 0.50 0.38 4.87 0.25 0.73 0.09 0. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.80 0.38 0.59 0.60 1.79 0.61 0.52 0.69 93.70 0.85 0.08 0.43 2.28 0.42 0.00 -0.42 0.88 0.00 0.12 -0.52 0.09 -0.09 1.70 0.05 0.62 0.99 0.36 0.42 1.46 7.48 0.04 0.39 0.63 0.26 0.40 0.05 0.87 0. insurance and real estate Other services Revisions one year later GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport material GFCF construction GFCF other Exports Imports GVA Agriculture.93 0.03 0.43 0.87 89.88 0.30 0.88 1.59 0.00 0.88 Standard Noise-todeviation signal ratio Proportion of positive revisions Sign concordance Direction concordance Mean squared revision UM UR UD Root mean squared revision REVISIONS TO THE YEAR-ON-YEAR RATES OF CHANGE OF DEFLATORS Revisions to the 1st estimate GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport equipment GFCF construction GFCF other Exports Imports 0.73 1.85 0.50 1.03 62.93 0.60 8.53 -0.94 0.96 0.22 0.92 96.52 1.50 0.13 0.11 0.73 0.73 0.02 0.00 0.40 0.58 91.06 0.94 1.46 -0.23 0.97 0.49 0.87 11.05 0.15 0.22 1.12 0.00 0.23 0.42 0.06 -0.52 0.52 0.12 0.60 0.45 0.20 3.43 0.16 0.07 0.03 1.14 0.16 2.78 97.37 0.37 2.63 0.77 0.87 0.97 0.37 0.21 0.25 1.05 2.04 0.88 0.07 0.60 0.14 0.39 0.33 0.17 0.02 1.37 3.24 2.50 0.67 1.51 1.81 3.55 0.93 1.00 1.43 0.00 0.11 0.85 0.83 0.17 0.30 70.01 0.20 0.45 11.07 -0.27 0.09 0.27 0.58 0.84 0.94 13.93 0.80 98.25 0.97 0.00 0.62 7.50 4.70 0.01 -0.79 0.00 0.47 0.69 0.17 0.47 0.52 95.84 1.61 0.65 0.29 0.81 2.08 -0.00 1.62 1.81 95.27 5.27 0.80 1.20 2.17* -0.26 2.44 0.55 1. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial.24 0.00 0.42 0.30 0.00 1.21 0.88 0.85 0.00 GVA Agriculture.84 99.15 0.03 0.00 0.94 0.12 0.63 0.10 1.13 6.00 0.44 90.82 0.26 0.80 0.23 0.39 4.78 0.23 69.38 0.90 0.29 3.88 6.79 0.41 1.35 16.02 0.43 0.08 0.17 29.36 0.45 3.82 1.06 60.09 0.38 0.00 1.93 0.44 0.45 0.50 0.73 0.28 0.54 51.31 0.55 0.17 91.28 4.57 0.33 94.32 0.20 0.65 0.03 0.88 1.27 2.07 91.81 3.02 -0.97 0.00 77.22 0.67 0. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.52 0.44 74.47 1.83 0.03 -0.36 0.62 0.83 0.73 0.45 0.11 77.01 1.06 98.77 0.97 0.09 0.11 0.81 0.64 0.51 1.90 0.91 79.66 0.22 0.19 0.85 0.94 0.40 0.01 4.21 -0.

17 0.78 43.10 -0.47 0.80 0.40 0.60 94.31 0.31 17.65 0.41 0.75 2.19 1.55 0.04 0.55 0.79 0.31 0.06 0.85 0.85 0.27 50.88 0.27 0.57 0.81 1.41 0.12 27.59 90.85 0.44 0.37 0.12 0.85 0.86 94.36 4.16 1.51 0.58 0.58 0.96 1.91 0. insurance and real estate Other services 0.31 0.52 0. **.06 0.96 0.04 2.28 0.08 63.57* -0.33 1.73 0.05 -0.06 3.03 2.76 88.26 1.06 0.45 0.44 11.67 0.19 0. II 153 Articles .29 0.52 1.07 1.92 2. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial.29 1.53 10.30 0.30 55.85 0.94 0.50 0.63 0.05 72.34 0.63 1.40 94.29 72.06 0.87 0.47 0.43 0.88 0.23 0.64 1.52 0.77 0.60 0.19 1.40 0.87 0.67 0.77 0.02 0.41 0.53 0.67 0.21* -0.62 77.47 10.84 4.71 87.73 0.48 1.50 0.13 98.58 0.31 10.93 0.94 0.77 1.77 0.09 0.48 0.25 0.10 0.62 0. respectively.34 0.10 1.04 -0.40 1.69 3.50 0.08 0.90 0.64 44.38 35.27 0.97 0.08 0.92 0.67 1.15 0.83 0.85 0.94 0.79 0.47 0.07 0.74 0.07 0.72 0.00 -0.74 3.64 0.24 1.10 40.00 15.27 0.60 94.40 1.41 1.51 0.50 0. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade. * correspond to a value statistically different from zero with a significance level of 1%.31 0.57 0.48 0.30 1.01 GVA Agriculture.88 0.82 0.48 0.57 0.43 0.20 0.05 0.15 14.26 1.77 0.16 0.90 0.77 0.62 0.91 0.50 86.14 0.34 48.14 0.88 0.10 89.90 0.46 0.23 0.88 0.71 0.09 0.31 0.04 5.97 80.70 0.78 0.47 0.14 1.91 0.18 15.50 71.83 0.43 2.70 42.42 0.18 96.02 0.16 57.99 0.06 3.25 0.69 27.44 0.26 0.32 0.61 0.88 0.34 0.10 0.12 0.04 2.16 1.10 0.20 11.58 0.71 0.57 1.61 0.45 0.32 0.41 77.59 1.53 0.56 3.47 0.15 -0.74 0.09 0.16 90.77 0.15 1.83 18.26 0.67 0.68 0.41 89.70 0.53 0.68 1.85 0.60 1. hotels and restaurants Transportations and communications Financial.02 0.48 1.35 0. 5% and 10%.25 0.05 0.33 1.41 0.10 0.21 0.32 0.11 0.69 0.55 0.97 0.23 59.32 0.13 -0.81 1.51 0.57 0.45 0.47 0.50 0.91 0.55 97.97 0.97 0.22 0.89 0.98 1.43 0.55 0.14 0.90 0.28 0.64 0.67 0.50 0.84 0.47 0.94 0.32 46.14 0.45 1.84 99.29 0.91 0.61 0.67 0.40 0.69 1.16 1.67 36.65 0.68 27.76 1.90 0.80 97.20 0.54 2.90 72.38 51.56 0.45 0.06 6.15 0.83 0.82 0.10 1.64 0.55 0.06 0.30 1.42 0.25 4.31 0.10 3.78 Standard Noise-todeviation signal ratio Proportion of positive revisions Sign concordance Direction concordance Mean squared revision UM UR UD Root mean squared revision REVISIONS TO THE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER RATES OF CHANGE OF DEFLATORS Mean Revisions to the 1st estimate GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport equipment GFCF construction GFCF other Exports Imports 0.54 8.53 0.42 0.49 1.38 1.08 82.24 1.81 0.02 Note: ***.04 0.66 16. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.41 63.18 0.47 0.84 0.58 0.21 1.94 0.09 1.39 0.82 1.76 56.15 0.34 0.67 0.49 0.62 4.19 1.36 0.83 0.26 0.91 0.72 2.60 0.25 0.50 0.02 -0.91 0.25 1.71 0.33 -0.62 0.94 1.27 0.58 4.97 8.18 21.74 0.82 0.80 2.43 5.87 0.07 0.61 0.65 2.10 0.94 0.39 0.64 0.44 0.28 1.75 3.02 0.19 0.32 0.91 1.43 0.53 0.85 0.13 2.30 0.59 1.88 0.77 0.67 0.97 0.Table 8 Mean absolute revision Relative mean absolute revision 0.55 0.88 0.43 0.81 0.59 0.19 0.99 50.02 0.83 0.65 0.94 0.85 0.06 2.03 -0.85 0.57 0.01 0.93 0.04 78.91 0.34 0.25 0.30 1.92 0.02 Revisions one year later GDP Private consumption Public consumption GFCF GFCF machinery GFCF transport material GFCF construction GFCF other Exports Imports 0.47 0.79 0.30 0.21 81.15 0.47 0.64 0.90 0.84 1.73 0.41 39. water supply and sewerage Construction Trade.06 0.22 0.27 20.38 0.83 0.28 59.79 0.31 8.01 -0.63 0.25 1.80 0.06 0.93 0.07 -0.28 0.30 1.97 0.91 0.84 27.80 0.10 0.32 0.14 1.60 0.94 1.69 3.02 1.07 0.80 83. insurance and real estate Other services -0.01 0.87 0.83 0.42 GVA Agriculture. forestry and fishing Industry Energy.29 0.73 0.64 0.20 3.31 0.65 0.00 1.15 0.67 0.36 54.68 0.44 0.53 0.27 0.70 0.62 0.73 0.42 0.34 36.06 0.63 0.40 1.97 43.

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