<Show: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT> <Date: June 12, 2013> <Time: 18:30:00> <Tran: 061201cb.
118> <Type: SHOW> <Head: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for June 12, 2013, PBS> <Sect: News; International> <Byline: Susie Gharib, Tyler Mathisen, Eamon Javers, Jon Fortt, Hampton Pearson, Phil LeBeau> <Guest: Ira Jersey, David Kelly> <Spec: Business; Economy; Stock Markets; World Affairs; Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI); Consumers; Trade; Policies; AAA; Automotive Industry; Transportation> <Time: 18:30:00>
ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Susie Gharib, brought to you by --
SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: A tsunami of change from New York to Tokyo. And across the globe, the world`s biggest market seems to be undergoing a major shift that could impact everything you own - from stocks, to bonds and commodities.
TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: A two-second head start. That`s all it takes for some traders to get an edge over you, the individual investors. And that`s exactly what`s happening when a closely watched market-moving report is released every month.
GHARIB: And, distracted drivers. A new study says it`s not just about taking your eyes off the road but also your mind.
We have all that and more on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Wednesday, June 12th.
MATHISEN: Good evening, everyone.
For most of 2013, we began this program with talk of record highs and winning streaks for stocks. Tonight, it`s a losing streak. The three-day stretch of loses for the Dow so far this year.
And the losses have not been small. Today`s nearly 127-point Dow decline followed yesterday`s 117-point drop and was the fourth triple digit loss for the Dow in two weeks.
Investors are increasingly worried that a big multiyear change is taking hold. It`s not just concern that the Federal Reserve may pull back on it`s bond-buying program, sending interest rates higher, though, they have risen sharply since early May, including today. It`s that China`s economy may be slowing, pulling down emerging market countries with it, emerging market stocks off 10 percent since their peak in May.
Brazil`s market is down 20 percent. Japan and Europe aren`t out of the woods by any means yet. And the big asset manager PIMCO says there`s a 60 percent chance of a global recession in three to five years.
Adding to Wall Street`s worries, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the U.S. dollar against the basket of currencies, touched its lowest level in four months today.
At the end of another exhausting day, the Dow finished down more than 126 points, ending below the 15,000 threshold. The NASDAQ, 36 points lower. And the S&P 500 off by 13.
GHARIB: So, what do all these global developments mean for your investments and your business?
Joining us now to talk about all of this: David Kelly. He`s chief global strategist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Funds. And, Ira Jersey, director of U.S. interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse.
Ira, let me begin with you and just ask you that -- do you agree that we are entering some kind of new era? And how much risk is the global economy really facing?
IRA JERSEY, DIRECTOR OF U.S. INTEREST RATE STRATEGY: I don`t think you can say we`re in a new era quite yet. I do think the market is getting a little ahead and a little bit shaky, thinking about what policy changes might be in store. You saw a lot of volatility yesterday after the Bank of Japan did not give you more information about what their end goal was for their current policy of their bond-buying program.
And the market has really been on edge the last month or so considering whether or not the Federal Reserve its own bond purchase program. In fact, the way we view it, the market is actually pricing in for a very bad policy mistake by central banks not only in the U.S. but indeed globally.
MATHISEN: David, is the market over doing it as Ira suggests there?
In other words, are they pricing in the possibility of not only a tapering but a complete cancelling of the bond purchases? And why are the emerging markets taking it so hard?
DAVID KELLY, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST JPMORGAN FUNDS: Well, I think -- two things. First of all, I think there are some genuine economic problems in emerging markets. China is growing more slowly and you can see an inflation problem in India. You got a bit of inflation problem in Brazil, too.
So, there are some growing pains there. But in the long run I think emerging markets will grow more quickly than the developed world anyways, and I want to have some assets there.
Overall, I think, you know, markets have been going up very strongly, particularly in the United States in recent months. They`re due for bull pack. You can never time exactly when that`s going to happen. But I think that`s what is going on.
But, fundamentally, I don`t believe the rising interest rates threaten the U.S. economy. I think the U.S. economic expansion is like a tortoise, it`s not the hare. But it`s a very steady tortoise, and I think it will continue to grow through rising interest rates, and because of that, I think long-term investors should still be overweight equities, underweight fixed income as interest rates rise.
GHARIB: Let me ask you more about that, David, in terms of what should investors be doing to prepare themselves for higher interest rates? That was for the longest time, all year long, even last year, money managers everywhere were saying, time to get out of bonds and put more money into equities, and we haven`t seen that great rotation happening. Is now the time?
Should investor do to prepare themselves for higher interest rates, all year long, even last year money managers everywhere said time to get out of bonds and put money into equities and we haven`t seen that great rotation happening. Is now the time? I mean, what are you doing with client portfolios?
KELLY: Well, I think the important thing is not to try and time it too precisely. We don`t know. But what we do know is that interest rates are too low for a recovering economy. Gradually, the unemployment rate is coming down in the United States and as the Federal Reserve continue this policy of QE, getting to be a bigger and bigger balance sheet, which is going to be more of a problem when they try to reverse things. Because of that, they are going to eventually taper QE and bring it down to zero accumulation and that is a big change and that will push interest rates higher.
So, the key thing is don`t try to time this. But position your portfolios correctly today for higher interest rates. And that means that not only being a little overweight equity and a little underweight fixed income, but also within equities, a little overweight those less sensitive sectors like technology, you know, and be a little light on things like utilities. Within the fixed income market, overweight things like high yield, convertibles, floating rates, underweight things like treasuries and tips and high quality corporate bonds would tend to get hurt as interest rates rise.
MATHISEN: So, David -- so, Iran, David has given us a wonderful smorgasbord of possibilities there. He says overweight equities, but what if you`re not? What if you`re overweight bonds, yields have been rising dramatically. When people get their end of quarter statements, I suspect that some of them are going to be quite surprise.
What should I do if I am overweight bonds and mortgage-backed securities right now?
JERSEY: Well, we agree with David`s premise. In fact, in our model portfolio, we`re underweight treasuries and we`re underweight the long end of the treasuries market in particular. So, we have shortened duration, we`re more buying two-year, three-year, and five-year bonds instead of 10- year and 30-year bonds.
And we do like corporates. I think, you know, there are things like investment grade corporates, you can get quality names with some spreads and by buying those instead of treasuries, for example, you can pick up some incremental yield.
I do think the market that you`ve seen over the last couple weeks does present a big problem and I think that`s an important point, and that`s Wall Street cannot warehouse as much risk as it used to be able to. So, things like bid offer spreads on a lot of bond market products. So, things like corporate bonds, like high-yield bonds, and like mortgage bonds have widened
quite substantially because Wall Street balance sheets are much smaller. So, the amount of bonds they can buy in these sell offs is more limited.
And because of that, you`re gong to wind up seeing much more volatility as risk gets taken off of portfolios by money mangers.
GHARIB: Iran, I`m sorry to cut you off. We`re just going to have to leave it there. This is a complicated issue. You did bring some clarity to it for our viewers tonight.
Thank you, gentlemen, both so much. David Kelly of JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Funds and Ira Jersey of Credit Suisse.
MATHISEN: Well, despite the recent slide in the market, the Business Roundtable, a group of American CEOs from some of the nation`s largest companies, is more optimistic about the economy. In its latest survey of chief executives, a third of its members expect to take on more employees over the next six months, and nearly 80 percent of them expect sales to increase during the same period. The group also credits steady consumer spending for the modest growth in the economy this year.
GHARIB: Shares of Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) were one of the day`s bright spots, jumping more than 2 1/2 percent, and those gains were driven by upbeat comments from its CEO. Meg Whitman, now a year and a half into her role as chief executive, predicts that despite a sharp drop in personal computer sales, revenue at H.P. could grow over the next year, thanks to software servicing, printers and computer sales.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MEG WHITMAN, HEWLETT PACKARD CEO: This is going to be a five-year turn around to get H.P. running just like it should, you know, for a company of this iconic status. But as I said, you don`t have to wait five years for results. And I`d say we`re just a bit ahead of where we thought we would be. We`re about 18 months into this five-year turn around, and we`re about right where we have to -- where we have to be. We`ve got a long way to go.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GHARIB: H.P. sharps have more than doubled since November.
And Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) is also looking good, thanks to the massive growth of Internet traffic. The network equipment maker is predicting that a new computer router product it unveiled today will boost revenue 25 percent, to $10 billion within the next two years.
MATHISEN: Shareholders at Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Target (NYSE:TGT) have something to smile about. Dow component Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), the world`s largest maker of earth moving and mining equipment, is raising its shareholder dividend by 15 percent, to 60 cents a share. And retailer Target (NYSE:TGT) is doing them one better, raising its payout to shareholders by 19 percent to 43 cents a share.
Well, some encouraging news about housing. Despite mortgage loan rates edging up to a 15-month high last week, applications for new mortgages and refinancings rose 5 percent, according to Mortgage Bankers Association.
So, are rising rates prompting perspective home buyers to get off the couch and start hunting? That story, log on to our Web site NBR.com.
And there was good news about so-called underwater homeowners -- people who owe more money on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Many of then are now above the water line. The real estate tracking firm CoreLogic (NYSE:CLGX) reports the number of underwater homeowners has dropped between 10 million for the first time in about three years. That`s down from 12 million at the start of 2011.
GHARIB: Well, along with those rising home values, Americans are also seeing a big boost in their 401(k) retirement savings accounts. Investment manager Vanguard reports that
thanks to the rising stock market, average retirement saving account balances rose 10 percent in 2012.
MATHISEN: Well, on a prime example of how challenging it is for individual investors to get a fair shake, we`re learning that some Wall Street traders are paying to get early access to selected market moving data every month and it`s all legal.
Eamon Javers has been following the story and joins us now from the nation`s capital.
Eamon, who are the major players in this story? And how are traders getting that head start?
EAMON JAVERS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Well, good evening, Tyler.
CNBC has obtained a document that shows closely watched consumer confidence number that routinely moves markets is accessed by an elite group of traders for a fee of full two seconds before its official release. A contract signed by Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI), the news and data feed service, and the University of Michigan, which produces the widely cited economic statistics, stipulates that the data will be posted on the web for the general public at 10:00 a.m. on release dates. Five minutes before that, at 9:55 a.m., the data is distributed on a conference call for Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) paying clients who are given certain headline numbers.
But the contract carves out an even more elite group of clients who subscribe to the ultra low latency distribution platform or high speed data feed offered by Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI). Those most elite clients received the information in a specialized format tailormade for computer driven algorithmic trading at 95:54:58.00, according to the terms of the contract.
Now, here is what Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) told us about this early release. Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) saying, "Details of the tiered release of this data are provided
openly to Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) customers and to the wider public and anyone wishing to trade on this data can pay for the service that best meets their data needs."
Now, Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) also said it fully discloses the 2- second lead time on its Web site.
And, guys, I can tell you, this is extremely valuable data. The contract shows that Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) pays the University of Michigan at least $1 million per year for the exclusive right to distribute it.
Back to you.
GHARIB: So, Eamon, you talked to Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI). What about the University of Michigan? I understand that you talked to them as well. What was their reaction to all of this hullabaloo on this subject?
JAVERS: Yes. Well, they told me that they believe this has been carefully vetted, this contract, and it applies -- it follows all regulations and rules in this area. And the person who actually puts this data together told me that because it`s privately financed by Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI), he thinks that they wouldn`t be able to collect this data or distribute it to the public at all if they didn`t have this private coming in.
MATHISEN: How much does Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) charge for access to this data, especially the early access?
JAVERS: Well, they wouldn`t tell us. We know that they pay $1 million a year to the University of Michigan, but Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) would not tell us how much they`re charging their own clients for access to that information. Presumably, they are making more than $1 million dollars a year on it, or else it`s not a good business.
MATHISEN: All right. Eamon Javers, reporting from Washington tonight
-- thank you very much.
So, what do you think? Is this fair or unfair? Send us your comments at NBRmail@CNBC.com.
GHARIB: Still ahead on the program, not only is Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) moving into the grocery business, but it`s also competing for a lucrative contract with the CIA. We have details coming up.
But, first, a look at how some of the most widely held stocks closed today.
MATHISEN: Couple of big moves in different sectors in "Market Focus" tonight -- starting with Health Management Associates (NYSE:HMA). That company`s shares hit a six-year intraday high today before easing off. Its largest shareholder, the hedge fund Glenview Capital has petitioned the SEC to get the HMA to eliminate or ease the provisions of a so-called poison pill anti-takeover different.
Shares of Health Management up more than 11 percent today, have more than doubled over the past year.
Spectra Energy (NYSE:SE), a natural gas distributor, jumped double digits today as investors see its corporate restructuring leading to higher dividends down the road. Spectra shares traded at four times normal volume, closing at $33.68, up more than 11 percent.
GHARIB: After the market closed, a huge deal was announced. Safeway (NYSE:SWY) saying the sale of its Canadian operation for more than $5.5 billion in cash. Shares of Safeway (NYSE:SWY) have been down to fraction at the regular session, but then rocketed higher on news of the deal.
NASCO was gainer today after a bullish comment by the company at a bank conference. NASCO`s companies make products that are sold at Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe`s. Shares gained more than 1 1/2 percent to $19.88.
Shares of Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) bubbles up today after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its rating on the stock to neutral. Goldman said it significantly underestimated the success of Angry Orchard. This is hard cider that`s flying off the shelves. Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) also brews Sam Adams.
Investors raised the glass to Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM). Shares gaining 5 1/2 percent and up more than 51 percent in the past year.
MATHISEN: Well, the recent reports about the U.S. government hiring private companies to do intelligence gathering and what happens when the wrong people get access to sensitive data has seemingly not deterred some of the nation`s biggest companies from competing for those lucrative Washington contracts.
Jon Fortt has more now on a computing deal with the CIA that`s garnered a lot of attention and it`s pitting Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) against IBM.
So, Jon, what`s the significance of companies like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) getting into the Cloud computing business with the government?
JON FORTT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Well, Tyler, in this deal in particular, it`s a CIA contract and just so that everybody has got this in perspective. It doesn`t mean that the CIA is doing its work and intelligence gathering on Amazon`s public Cloud. This is more about consulting to figure out how to build kind of a private cloud inside the government for the CIA.
This is traditionally the sort of work IBM would have done. There are a lot for that sort of thing. They know about security. They are in tight with the government. This time, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) at least initially won the contract and IBM has challenged that.
It just shows how this move towards the Cloud is shaking up the traditional structure of who gets these government contracts.
GHARIB: So, Jon, tell us a little bit more about the impact on companies like IBM.
FORTT: Well, for IBM in particular, this is a tricky situation. The smarter planet initiative that IBM has is largely based on the idea that they`ve got these relationships with governments. They can pull a lot of different data, information in and then predict what`s going to happen next, be a lot smarter about delivering software, delivering services to customers.
If you get some upstarts like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) coming in, taking in some of that first order business in constructing the Cloud, it makes some of IBM`s other business like software potentially weaker down the line.
MATHISEN: I got to say, Jon, that the whole idea of a private Cloud sounds a bit like an oxymoron to me. But does this mean that the most conservative tech customers like the CIA are getting more comfortable with putting the data, information, up the Cloud?
FORTT: In their private spaces, yes, but I think what`s also significant here is agency, government agencies at the federal or state level that have less sensitive data might be more willing to experiment with putting this on not just Amazon`s Cloud, but Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is number two in the Cloud game right now, pushing hard.
So, it presents lots of opportunities for those folks.
MATHISEN: All right. Jon, thank you very much.
Jon Fortt reporting from Palo Alto for us tonight.
GHARIB: Auto sales are in over drive and that`s why auto makers are adding more assembly line workers and keeping some plants open around the clock. They also need more engineers, designers, finance professionals and information technology experts.
So, today, Ford Motor (NYSE:F) said it plans to add 800 more of those white collar workers, and that`s in addition to the 2,200 new jobs previously announced by Ford this year.
MATHISEN: Rival automaker Toyota (NYSE:TM) is not likely to be adding any more U.S. jobs any time soon. The CEO of Toyota (NYSE:TM) of North America conceded that the company will not reach the 17 percent U.S. market share it held four years ago. Toyota (NYSE:TM), of course, has meantime been hit by several costly safety recalls and by disruptions caused by the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami.
The automaker now expects U.S. market share to fall somewhere between the current 14 percent level and that all time high of 17 percent back in 2009. That was, of course, when General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Chrysler were flat on their backs.
GHARIB: Well, no matter what kind of car you drive, a new study finds that if you use a hands-free cell phone to talk or send messages when you`re driving, it may be as dangerous as holding that phone in your hand.
Hampton Pearson explains.
HAMPTON PEARSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voiceover):
An estimated 9 million motorists now have some form of voice-activated technology in their vehicles. An auto industry expert says that number could increase seven-fold in the next five years. But a new study from AAA says taking the mind of the driver off the road can be just as risky as talking or texting while driving.
JAKE NELSON, AAA SPOKESPERSON: These infotainment systems are actually making people less able to operate or drive as safely as they would otherwise.
PEARSON: A team of researchers at University of Utah wired up subjects and took them out on the road in a vehicle equipped with voice activated technology for multitasking while behind the wheel. What the researchers found was that even with eyes on the road and hands-free, driver reaction time and ability to process information was impaired.
NELSON: As we increase the mental demands on a driver while they are driving down the road, their ability to operate the motor vehicle safely is degradated.
PEARSON: Auto industry officials are disputing that study. A statement from the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers says, "We`re concerned about any study that suggests that handheld phones are comparably risky to the hands-free systems we`re putting in our vehicles."
(on camera): We could be looking at a new clash between the auto industry and safety advocates. In the next five years, it`s estimated that nearly half of all new cars will be equipped with some type of voice recognition or hands-free technology.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson in Washington.
MATHISEN: Coming up, an airline entrepreneur with a big idea -- all- you-can-fly for a flat monthly fee. But will the business take off with travelers?
First, though, a look at how commodities, treasuries and currencies fared today.
MATHISEN: More trouble for Boeings 787 Dreamliner, but this time it had nothing to do with the troubled lithium ion battery system. Japan`s All Nippon airline says one of the engines on a domestic flight just wouldn`t start and it took place minutes before take off early today. The malfunctioning engine was made by Rolls Royce. There were no injuries.
GHARIB: So, how would you like to pay one price and take all the flights you want in one month? Well, one small airline based in California is hoping that`s exactly what customers want.
Phil LeBeau has that story.
PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It`s a small plane and small airline with big ambitions. Surf Air is an all- you-can-fly airline created by a 34-year-old Wade Everly, who is charging members $1,658 a month to fly as much as they want.
WADE EVERLY, SURF AIR FOUNDER & CEO: This is a flat fee all-you-can- fly subscription. We`re compared to a country club with planes instead of golf courses. We`ve also been talked about as the Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) of air travel.
LEBEAU: Surf Air and its trio of turboprop planes will initially fly between Burbank and San Carlos, California, in the Silicon Valley. And soon add flights to other cities in California.
(on camera): On board the very first Surf Air flight from Burbank up to San Carlos, there are six seats in this Pilatus PC-12. Descent amount of leg room, enough you don`t feel like you`re cramped inside of a small plane.
(voice-over): So far, 150 people have signed up as members of Surf Air. Do they think they will fly enough to justify paying $1,650 a month?
ERIC JOHNSON, PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT: If you calculate what you time is worth during the day, if you save multiple hours on waiting, checking in, parking et cetera, I think it more than can justify itself.
LEBEAU: Historically, start up airlines struggled to sore. Critics say it`s hard to make big money on small planes, with a limited customer base.
GORDON BETHUNE, FORMER CONTINENTAL AIRLINES CEO: History says most of them won`t work. And so, I don`t know where they come from. I wouldn`t put my pension in the idea, but maybe some other people have more tolerance to risk than I do.
EVERLY: What we`re doing is something fundamentally different. So, while we`re both using planes to, you know, move people from A to B, the business is very different. What we`re selling is a satisfied experience.
LEBEAU: One flight completed, the challenge for Surf Air now is to see if it can fly in an industry filled with turbulence.
Phil LeBeau, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, San Carlos, California.
MATHISEN: Well, the U.S. Golf Association, with the help of Tiger Woods, Arnold Palmer and Paul Creamer has adopted Rodney Dangerfield impatient zinger from the iconic movie "Caddyshack," while we`re young -- in an effort to speed up play.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can say now is your last time (INAUDIBLE) --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: While we`re young.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: While we`re young.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: While we`re young.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: While we`re young.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: While we`re young.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: While we`re young.
MATHISEN (voice-over): Behind the fun, the big business of golf is feeling some pressure, although rounds played have picked up as the economy improves, there is still 20 percent below the `80s peak according to the national golf foundation. And one reason is slow play. Duffers imitating the painstaking pros they see on TV.
BUTCH HARMON, FORMER PRO GOLFER: It`s a very serious issue and I hope that the golfing public gets the message.
TIGER WOODS, PRO GOLF: We need to pick up the pace of play. We need to play faster.
MATHISEN: So you`ll see a series of PSAs during the U.S. Open this weekend of familiar faces sweating over putts and over thinking tee shots - with reminders for golfers like you and me to pick up the pace out there.
UNIDENTIFIED BOY: While we`re young?
GHARIB: Oh, boy. I don`t see you, Tyler, as a slow player.
MATHISEN: I am fast --
GHARIB: Over thinking.
MATHISEN: I just don`t pick up the pace, I pick up the ball when I don`t like the score on any given hole, but I`m all for moving the game along.
GHARIB: Get it going while we`re young.
That`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Susie Gharib, thanks for watching.
MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Thanks from me as well. Have a great evening, everybody. And be sure to log on to our Web site, at NBR.com. We hope to see you back here tomorrow evening.
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post broadcast at http://nbr.com. The program is transcribed by CQRC Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. (c) 2013 CNBC, Inc.
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