259
111 3 5 3
33 118 3 3 11
A) P(E I Similarly 9
=
118
EXERCISE 52
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
(a) Two urns contain 4 white, 6 blue and 4 white, 5 blue balls respectively. One of the urns is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is white, find the probability that it is drawn from the (ii) second urn. hI first urn are men and 30% women, 19% of these men and 70% population, smoking cigarette (b) Of the 20% of these women smoke WILLS. What is the probability that a person seen smoking a WILLS will be a man? (a) Three urns contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 red, 6 black and 5 red, 5 black balls respectively. One of the urns is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is red, find the probability that it is drawn from the first urn. (b) There are three bags: first containing 1 white, 2 red, 3 green balls; second 2 white, 3 red, 1 green balls and third 3 white, 1 red, 2 green balls. Two balls are drawn from a bag chosen at random. They are found to be 1 red and 1 white. Find the probability that balls so drawn (M.D. U. Dec. 2008) came from the second bag. A factory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that machine A produced 60% of the items of output and machine B produced 40% of the items. Further, 2% of the items produced by machine A were defective and 1% produced by machine B were defective. If a defective item is drawn at random, what is the probability that it was produced by machine A? An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probability of accident is 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets (M.D. U. 2006) an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver? scooters and 70% of manufactures I scooters. Plant manufacture A company has two plants to plant II manufactures 30%. At plant I, 80% of the scooters are rated standard quality and at plant II, 90% of the scooters are rated standard quality. A scooter is chosen at random and is found to be of standard quality. What is the chance that it has come from plant II? In a bolt factory, there are four machines A, B, C, D manufacturing 20%, 15%, 25% and 40% of the total output respectively. Of their outputs 5%, 4%, 3% and 2%, in the same order, are defec tive bolts. A bolt is chosen at random from the factorys production and is found defective. What is the probability that the bolt was manufactured by machine A or machine D? (M.D. U., Dec. 2006) A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the probabilities that he will come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of transport are respectively
, ,
jj and
8.
if he comes by train, bus and scooter and The probabilities that he will be late are respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be late. When he arrives, he is late. What is the probability that he comes by train? A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.
260
9.
A survey was conducted to find the supplies of the consumer riurables for the market. It was found that the three major companies A, B and C have marke share of 35%, 25% and 40% respectively out of which 2%, 1% and 3% are not upto the satisfaction. A consumer buys a prod uct and is dissntiiied with it. What is the probability that it might be from the company C?
10.
(M.D. U. May 2006) By examinng th ebest Xray, the probability that TB. is detected when a person is actually suffering is 0.99. TiiQ probability that the doctor diagnoses incorrectly that a person has T.B. on the basis of Xrny is 0,001. In a cortain city, 1 in .1000 persons suffer from T.B. A person is selceted at ranoin anti ic diagnosed to hove T.B. What is the chance that he actually has T.B.? 11. Assume that the chance of a patient having a heart attuck is 40%. It is also assumed that a 4 and prescription of certain O meditation anti yoga course reduce the risk of heart attack by 3 drug reduces its chances by 25%, At a time a patient can choose any one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two options the patient selected at random suffers a heart attack. Find the probability that the patient followed a course of meditation and yoga. 12. There are three coins. One is a two headed coin (having head on both faces), another is a biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the.three coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows heads, What is the probability that it was the two headed coin? Answers
:
6. 9. 0.8175, 0.254 7. 10. 110
:4
8. 11. 14 12. 4
24
If the numerical values assumed by a variable are the result of some chance factors, so that a particular value cannot be exactly predicted in advance, the variable is then called a random variable. A random variable is also called chance variable or stochastic variable. Random variables are denoted by capital letters, usually, from the last part of the alphabet, for instance, X, Y, Z etc. Continuous and Discrete Random Variables A continuou8 random variable is one which can assume any value within an interval, i.e., all values of a continuous scale. For example (i) the weights (in kg) of a group of individu. ale, (ii) the heights of a group of individuals. A discrete random variable is one which can assume only isolated values. For example, U) the number of heads in 4 tosses of a coin is a discrete random variable as it cannot assume values other than 0, 1, 2, 3, 4. (ii) the number of aces in a draw of 2 cards from a well shuffled deck is a random variable as it can take the values 0, 1, 2 only.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
261
5.17. (a) DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Let a random variable X assume values x , x, 1 p., respectively, where P(X =x) =p 1
,,.....,x, 3 x
with probabilities p ,p 1 ,p 2 , 3
+
......
+p,
= ii
p = 1.
X : x,, P(X) , p), 1 p is called the discrete probability distribution for X arid it spells out how a total probability of 1 is distributed over several values of the random variable. 5.17. (b) CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Let X be a continuous random variable taking values in the interval (. oc, a Iunction satisfying the rollowing propeties: c,o) (i) fix) is integrabl on ( (ii) fix) ? 0 for all x in ( ao, )
,
oo),
Let fix) be
Lr dx
Then fix is called the probability distribution (or density) function (p.d.f.) of the continuous random variable X. The probability for a continuous random variable X to fall in the interval [a, N is
P(a Xsb)=
curve y
$ f(x)
b
$ilx
dx
which is nothing but the area between the continuous curve y = fix) is called the probability curve. Taking 1,
a,
fix), x
a, x
P(X
ci
dx
0. Also,
.
P (a X hi P (a X < h) = P (a X /,) P(a <X < N If X is a continuous random variable with p.d.f. fix), then
F(x)=P(Xx)=
,r
f(x) dx
is called cumulative distribution function or simply distribution function of the con tinuous random variable X. The distribution function has the following properties: W0F(x)S1, a<X<oa (ii) F(x) = fix) 0 Ui)P(aXb)=$f(x)dx
h
=1
262
(a) Let
X: x , 1
, 2 x
p,
=
Ypx
( Zp
1)
Other names for the mean are average or expected value EOO. 2=p (x 1 We denote the variance by a 2 and define a 2 2 = Zp.x a If t is not a whole number, then
.dVariance. (b) If X is a continuous random variable with probability density function jftx), then
= +
Standard deviation a
E(X)
E(X)
$x f(x) dx fx f(x) dx
Var (X)
J
=
(x
1)2 1(x) dx
) 2 E(X
2 {E(X)]
x 1 I f(x) dx
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
Example 1. Five defective bulbs are accidentally mixed with twenty good ones. It is not possible to just look at a bulb and tell whether or not it is defective. Find the probability distri bution of the number of defective bulbs, if four bulbs are drawn at random from this lot. Sol. Let X denote the number of defective bulbs in 4. Clearly X can take the values 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4. = 5 Number of defective bulbs
= =
20 25
=
0)
P (no defective)
4 C 20
20x19x18x].7
25C25X24X23X22
P(X P(X
1) 2)
3 C<C
=
20 x C 5 2
380
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
1 %X_c
263
P(X = 3) P(X 4)
95
3 4 1140 380 40 1 P(X) 2530 2530 2530 2530 2530 Example 2. A die is tossed thrice. A success is getting 1 or 6 on a toss. Find the mean and the variance of the number of successes. 969
Sol. Let X denote the number of success. Clearly X can take the values 0, 1, 2 or 3!
Probability of failure
=
0)
P (no success)
P (all 3 failures)
=
3
X
3 x
27
1 x C 3
=
2)
3)
2x C 3
6 27
1111 x x = 3 3 3 27 The probability distribution of the random variable X is X : .0 1 2 3 12 8 6 1 P(X 27 27 27 27 To find the mean and variance
= =

X.
PX
Xj 1 P 2
0 1
27 12 27
6
0 12 27 12
0 12 27 24
27
1
27 27 1
27

27
27 5
Mean Variance 2 a
22
=
p..
1=
264
Example 3. A random variable X has the following probability function: 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 : x Values of X, + k 2 7k 2 2k 2 k 3k 2k 0 2k k pft) : (ii) Evaluate P(X < 6), P(X 6), P(3 <X 6) (i) Find k,
x)>
i.
p(x)
1, we have
[.
p(x)O]
ii)P(X<6)=P(X=0)P(X=1)
7k +k= 2 =2k
2k 2 =3kk =
(iii)P(X1)=k=j<;
33
is 4.
fix)
and
f(x) dx
tO
=
J_o,
f(x) dx + JO I f(x) dx
=
=fodxfedx
o+[]
=(01)=1
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
265
Since fix) satisfies the requirements for a density function, therefore, fix) is a density
function.
2
P(1 X2)=
=
fe_S
dx=L
2 Ee_x1
j
=
2 1 =e e
0.368
0.135
0.233.
Example 5. X is a contuiuuus random variable with probability density function given by kx,
if Ox<2
1,
we have
I f(x)dx=1 Jo
6 r
+
S:f(x) dx f:f(x) dx
+
ff(x) dx
J
=
kxdx+J
.4
2kdx+j (kx+6k)dx =1
6 r
k12k[x]+[_k+6kx]=1
k(20)+2k(42,(18k+36k)(8k+24k)=1 2k4k+18k16k=1 8k=1
k=.
8
Mean value of X
E(X) I
I x Jo
6 t
f(x.) dx
4 r
Jo
4[ [] [J
+
2k
+6k
.
3J
=
24k
8)
3.
266
Example 6. The density function of a random variable X is given by )Tx) x 2. Find (i) k (ii) mean (iii) variance (iv) mean deviation about the mean. Sol. (i) Since total probability = 1, we have
JO
kx (2
x),
I f(x)dx=1
(2 x) dx
x2 k1
12
k.
3)
fx)
=
k.=1 3
:.
4 2
Hence
(ii)
x (2
x),
Mean
E(X)
=
x f(x) dx =
0
40
.2
2 (2 x) dx x
4[3
(iii)
0 J 4
4..3
43
Var (X)
) 2 E(X
2 [E(X)]
=
2 1x2 f(x)dx(1)
f:x3 (2x)dx 1
4[
4L
5)
.2
r =
3 312 Ix x 4[
31 2 3 x 1 4 + +ix +x 0 4[ 4j
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
267
EXERCISE 5.3
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Two bad eggs are mixed accidently with 10 good ones. Find the probability distribution of the number of bad eggs in 3, drawn at random, without replacement, from this lot. A die is tossed twice. Getting a number greater than 4 is considered a success. Find the variance of the probability distribution of the number of successes. Two cards are drawn simultaneously from a wellshuffled deck of 52 cards. Compute the variance for the number of aces. An urn contains 4 white and 3 red balls. Three balls are drawn, with replacement, from this urn.
Find
i,
Compute the variance of the probability distribution of the number of doublets in four throws of a (M.D. U. May 2006) pair of dice. distribution: 6. A random variable X has the following probability 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Values of X, x : 17a iSa 13a ha 9a 7a 5a 3a a p(x) : P(X 3), P(2 X < 5) 3), < (ii) Find P(X (i) Determine the value of a. (iii) What is the smallest value of x for which P(X x)> 0.5? 7. Find the standard deviation for the following discrete distribution: 24 20 16 12 8 : x p(x): 8. 1 1 3 1 1
for
x<2
/tx)= (3+2x) for 2x4 x>4 for 0 Also findP(2 X3). Find the mean and variance of the following density function: 0<x<1 for x 1cx<2 for fix) 2x otherwise 0 10. The probability density p(x) of a continuous random variable is given by <x < o 0e p(x) = y
,
9.
0 Prove that y
.
11.
12.
represents the density of a random variable X, find E(X) and Var. (X). Find the expectation and variance of the random variable X, whose p.d.f. is given by
ifx>0 fix)=12e2x, otherwise 0;
268 Answers
1. X:
0
12
1
9 400
3. 
2
1 9366
, ,
P(X): 4
2.
4.
5.
6. 8.
12.
(i)a=
Yes, 11
81
(ii)
9927
(iii)5
10.0,2
7.2,/g 11.
9.1,
12
Frequency distributions can be classified under two heads: (i) Observed Frequency Distributions. (ii) Theoretical or Expected Frequency Distributions. Observed frequency distributions are based on actual observation and experimerita tion. If certain hypothesis is assumed, it is sometimes possible to derive mathematically what the frequency distribution of certain universe should be. Such distributions are called Theo retical Distributions. There are many types of theoretical frequency distributions but we shall consider only three which are of great importance: (i) Binomial Distribution (or Bernoullis Distribution); (ii) Poissons Distribution; (iii) Normal Distribution.
Let there be n independent trials in an experiment. Let a random variable X denote the number of successes in these n trials. Let p be the probability of a success and q that of a failure in a single trial so that p + q = 1. Let the trials be independent and p be constant for every trial. Let us find the probability of r successes in n trials. r successes can be obtained in n trials in Cr ways. P(X=r)=CrP(SSS
r times
FFF F r)tirnes
CrP(S)P(S)
r factors
P(S)
P(F)P(F)
(ii
r)factors
Crppp r factors
/
=
q (n r) factors
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
269
Hence
The distribution (1) is called the binomial probability distribution and X is called the binomial variate. Note 1. P(X r) is usually written as P(r). Note 2. The successive probabilities P(r) in (1) for r qC p q p, 2 1 q, C 0 C
=
0, 1, 2
n are
which are the successive terms of the binomial expansion of (q + p). That is why this distribution is called binomial distribution. Note 3. n andp occurring in the binomial distribution are called the parameters of the distribution. Note 4. In a binomial distribution: (i) n, the number of trials is finite. (ii) each trial has only two possible outcomes usually called success and failure. (iii) all the trials are independent. (iv) p (and hence q) is constant for all the trials. Note 5. A binomial distribution with n trials and probability of success in each trial as p, is denoted by B(n, p). 5.21. RECURRENCE OR RECURSION FORMULA FOR THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBU TION In a binomial distribution, P(r) P(r
+
=
Cr q r+iq
n! = (n r) !
qn_r pr
i!
1)
nrI
A
?+1
_:_______________
(nr1)!(r+1)!
x=
q nr1 p r1
x
P(r+1) P(r)
=
r!
x
(r+1)!
p q
(nr)x(nr1)! (nr1)!
r! (r+1)xr!
pnr p r+1 q q
P(r+1)=
P(r)
which is the required recurrence formula. Applying this formula successively, we can find if P(O) is known. P(1), P(2), P(3)
,
(U.P.T.U. 2008)
P(r)
r
ICr
qnr pr pr
+
rP(r)
= =
h1Cqhi_r
1. C 1 qp
p
C2 2. 2 q p
C3 3. 3 qp
1 nq
2.
nq p
n.p
270
ni
np[q
+(n1)q 2
+
(n
+
1)(n 2.1
2)
n3
2 p + +
+p
ni
= npP C q 0
2 q 1 C p
2 q 9 C 1 p+
...
=np(q+p) = 1 np
p+q=1)
r P 2 (r)
[r
= = rP(r)+
(since the contribution due to r
r(r
1)] P(r)
r(r 1) P(r)
2 r(r 1) ?zcqnrpr_
i +
...
n(n
1)
1.
n(n1)
p +3.2. 2 q
+
n(n1)(n2) qfl_ p 3
+...+n(n 1)pfl]_2
p + ... + n(n l)p1 p 3 1)(n 2)q 2 + 1i2 p + ... + p 3 2 p Iq + (ii 2)q p i 2 + n (n 2 [ 1)p q+ 3 0 C 2 q + ... + 2 1 C 2 p Cp p ] 2 =p+n(n ( = 2 p+n(nq+ l)p l)p p) p [: q+p= 1] =np+n(nl) p 2 n p [. p=npl = np[1 + (n l)p npl = np[1 p] = npq. Hence the variance of the binomial distribution is npq.
=p =p =p
[n(n n(n
p 2 1)q
n(n
$.t P2
(qp) 2 npq
qp
(12p) 2 npq
l2p
12
Hence Note. y 1
=2=
<
= it is zero. 16pq gives a measure of the kurtosis of the binomial distribution. npq
,
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
Example 1. During war, 1 ship out of 9 was sunk on an average in making a certain voyage. What was the probability that exactly 3 out of a convoy of 6 ships would arrive safely? Sol.p, the probability ofa ship arriving safely = 1
=;
q=
n = 6.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
+
271
3 c 6
Example 2. Assume that on the average one telephone number out offifteen called between 2 P.M. and 3 P.M. on weekdays is busy. What is the probability that if 6 randomly selected telephone numbers are called (i) not more than three, (ii) at least three of them will be busy? Sol. p, the probability of a telephone number being busy between 2 P.M. and 3 P.M. on weekdays 1
=

1

14
ii =
=
6; Binomial distnbution is
(14
16
+
The prob .bility that not more than three will be busy = Pi.0) + P11) P(2) + P(3)
(146 + 6
(15) 1176
+
(12
(15)
210
20]
2744x 4150
=
(15)6
0.9997
The probability that at least three of them will be busy = P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6)
=
(( (15 (15)
(14
+
+ 605
15}
15)
1( (15)(15)
(16
+
6 C
(15)
0.005.
Example 3. Six dice are thrown 729 tunes. How many times do you expect at least three dice to show a five or six? 21 Sol. p = the chance of getting 5 or 6 with one die =
n = 6, N = 729 33 since dice are in sets of 6 and there are 729 sets.
q 1 The binomial distribution is N(q
+
pY
729
(2
+
16
The expected number of times at least three dice showing five or six
729 [6C
+ 6C4
+ 6C6
729 b [160
60
12
1]
233.
Example 4. Out of 800 families with 4 children each, how many families would be expected to have (i) 2 boys and 2 girls (ii) at least one boy (iii) no girl (iv) at most two girls? Assume equal probabilities for boys and girls.
272
800
(
C4
800 4 2 C
800 x 6 x
= 300.
one
boy
()()3 + +
800
[4C
( )+
()4
=
(1)2(1)2
=8OOxj [4+6+4+1]=750. (iii) The expected number of families having no girl, i.e., having 4 boys
=
800 4 C
.
50.
(iv)
The expected number of families having at most two girls i.e., having at least 2 boys
=
800 [4C 2
(1)2 (1)2
+
3 c 4
()()3 +
()4]
c 4
800 x
[6
11
550.
Example 5. Suppose X has a binomial distribution B likely outcome. Sol.Here n=6, P(0) 1 p=
1
..
(, J.
=
1 q=1p=
1
=
0q C 6 6 = 2q C 6 2 p 4
()
=
(16
P(1)
1q C 6 p 5
6
=
P(2)
15
P(3)
3q C 6 p 3
20(i)
P(5)6c q 5 p56(j
=jj
= p C 6 P(6)=
Since P(3) is the maximum among all P(r), most likely outcome.
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, therefore, X
3 is the
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
273
J. ).
Then
(2 16 P(0)= =j; ) 0 C 4
(22(12
P(2)= C 4 .II II 3i 3}
16
32+48+ 24+ 4
number of times must he/she fire so that the probability of hitting the target at least once is more than 0.99? Sol. Let the shooter fire n times. Here n fires are n Bernoulli trials with 3 p= Now and 31 (given)
1 100 4> 100 The minimum value of n satisfying (1) is 4. Hence the shooter must fire 4 times. Example 8. Fit a binomial distribution to the following data: 4 2 0 3 x: 1 30 10 62 2 46
<__
(iY
f
30 62 46 10 2 2f=150
fx
0 62 92 30 8 fx=192
Mean of observations np
Zfx
=
Zf
192 150
1.28
1.28 .. q
=
p = 0.32 N=150 Also Hence, the binomial distribution is N(q + pY = 150 (0.68
ip
[:
+
N=f]
0.32).
EXERCISE 54
1. 2. Ten coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least seven heads. The probability of any ship of a company being destroyed on a certain voyage is 0.02. The com pany owns 6 ships for the voyage. What is the probability of: tiii) losing none. (ii) losing at most two ships (i) losing one ship The probability that a man aged 60 will live to be 70 is 0.65. What is the probability that out of ten men now 60, at least 7 would live to be 70? (a) The incidence of occupational disease in an industry is such that the workers have a 20% chance of suffering from it. What is the probability that out of six workers chosen at random, four or more will suffer from the disease? (b) The incidence of occupational disease in an industry is such that the workmen have a 10% chance of suffering from it. What is the probability that in a group of 7, five or more will (M.D. U. Dec. 2006) suffer from it?

3. 4.
5.
The probability that a pen manufactured by a company will be defective is are manufactured, find the probability that (ii) at least two will be defective (i) exactly two will be defective
1
.
If 12 such pens
(iii) none will be defective. 6. If the chance that one of the ten telephone lines is busy at an instant is 0.2. (i) What is the chance that 5 of the lines are busy? (ii) What is the probability that all the lines are busy?
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
275
7. 8.
9.
If on an average 1 vessel in every lOis wrecked, find the probability that out of 5 vessels expected (P.T.U. 2005) to arrive, at least 4 will arrive safely. A product is 0.5% defective and is packed in cartons of 100. What percentage contains not more than 3 defectives? A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black balls. If four balls are drawn, one by one, with replace ment, what is the probability that (ii) all are white (i) none is white
(iv) only two are white? (iii) at least one is white 10. In a hurdle race, a player has to cross 10 hurdles. The probability that he will clear each hurdle What is the probability that he will knock down fewer than 2 hurdles? is with 11. Fit a Binomial distribution for the following data and compare the theoretical frequencies the actual ones: 5 4 3 2 1 0 8 22 34 20 14 2 12. If the sum of mean and variance of a binomial distribution is 4.8 for five trials, find the distribution. find the probability of obtaining 13. If the mean of a binomial distribution is 3 and the variance is
.
,
14.
15. 16.
at least 4 success. In 800 families with 5 children each, how many families would be expected to have (i) 3 boys and 2 girls, (ii) 2 boys and 3 girls, (iii) no girl (iv) at the most two girls. (Assume probabilities for boys and girls to be equal.) In 100 sets of ten tosses of an unbiased coin, in how many cases do you expect to get (ii) at least 7 heads? (i) 7 heads and 3 tails 80 sets of (a) The following data are the number of seeds germinating out of 10 on damp filter for data: this to seeds. Fit a Binomial distribution 10 Total 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 x:
f:
20
=
28 10, N
=
12 80, Mean
=
8
=
6 2.175
..
(1
0
=
80
[Hint. Here n
np
2.175 etc.]
17. 18.
(b) Fit a Binomial distribution to the following frequency distribution: 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 (K U.K Dec.2009) 4 16 32 58 52 25 13 successively drawn falls are four If to A bag contains 10 balls each.marked with one of the digits 0 9. digit 0? the with marked none is that probability the is what with replacement from the bag, A box contains 100 tickets each bearing one of the numbers from 1 to 100. If 5 tickets are drawn successively with replacement from the box, find the probability that all the tickets bear num bers divisible by 10.
19.
20.
If six bombs are The probability that a bomb dropped from a plane will strike the target is dropped, find the probability that (i) exactly two will strike the target, (ii) at least two will strike (M.D. U. May 2007) the target. In sampling a large number of parts manufactured by a machine, the mean number of defectives in a sample of 20 is 2. Out of 1000 such samples, how many would be expected to contain at least 3 defective parts.
.
276
21.
In a lot of 500 solenoids 25 are defective. Find the probability of 0, 1, 2, 3, defective soleniods in a random sample of 20 solenoids. (M.D. U. May 2008)
Answers
1. 4. 6. 11 2. (i) 0. 1085, (a) 0.017
(ii) 0.9997,
(iii) 0.8858
3. 0.5 14
(i) 0.02579
81 256
5(5.3
10. 11 32
100 (.432
0.568)
4v I 5)

13.
0.446)6
20. 323
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
5.23. POISSON DISTRIBUTION AS A LIMITING CASE OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
If the parameters n and p of a binomial distribution are known, we can find the distri bution. But in situations where n is very large and p is very small, application of binomial distribution is very labourious. However, if we assume that as n * oo and p 0 such that np always remains finite, say A, we get the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution. Now, for a Binomial distribution P(X = r) = n(n1)(n2)...(nr1)
=
r!
n(n
x(1pYxp
i
%.
1)(n
2)
...
(n
r + 1)
r!
xllI
ii)
nr
x
\nj
(A
smcenp=A
..
p=
xr n(n1)(n2)...(nr+1) =x
A ( 1)
X(A)r
,r
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
277
r(n(fl1(fl2
=
(
(nr+1
fl
)).
)X,.
n As
ii 4
oc,
[iii] (i_J
tends to 1. Also (1_
each of the (r (i
1) factors
,
X)
(i_ ?.Z_
tends to 1.
Since
Lt
x*..\
1i+
..
1i fl)
.
as n
00
00
we have
P(X=r)=
(r=O, 1,2,3,...)
where ?. is a finite number = np. (A) represents a probability distribution which is called the Poisson probability distribution. Note 1. X is called the parameter of the distribution. x .c xn Note2.&=1++ to00. 1! 2! Note 3. The sum of the probabilities P(r) for r = 0, 1, 2, 3, ... P(0)+P(1)P(2)+P(3)+
=e l 1 +t+,+
9
is 1, since
+
kt
2 e
?e
=e.eA= 1.
P(r)
and P(r
1)
r+1
e A (r+i)!
P(r+1) r! = = or P(r+ 1)= P(r), r =0,1,2,3 P(r) r+1 (r+1)! r+1 This is called the recurrence formula for the Poisson distribution.
278
(U.P.T.U. 2006)
P(r)
xr e
1 r

=e
L r=1_1
(
=e
X+ +
1!
2!
=Xe1+_++
Thus, the mean of the Poisson distribution is equal to the parameter ?L.
Variance
2 G
=
r2P(r)_i12
r2.
re_.
=e
2. 1 r .X 2 + =eI
323
A 2 4
1!
2!
3!
43
4!
F 22 =Ii+
32
1!
2!
+
3! (1+2)?2
J
3 (1+3Th.
(1+1Th. E =Aeil+ 1! [
2!
3 A
3!
(
1 J
3A 3 3!
1!
2!
3!
t1!
2A 2!
Hence, the variance of the Poisson distribution is also L Thus, the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution are each equal to the parameter A. Note. The mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution can also be derived from those of p i 0 and rip = the binomial distribution in the limiting case when n
Lt np
n
Lt A
fl4
np (1
p) p)
=
Ltnp (1
Lt A (i
A.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
279
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
r
=
Example 1. If the variance of the Poisson distribution is 2, find the probabilitie for 1, 2, 3, 4 from the recurrence relation of the Poisson distribution. Sol. X, the parameter of Poisson .distribution = Variance = 2 Recurrence relation for the Poisson distribution is 2 P(r1)=P(r)=P(r) r+1 r+1 Now e P(0) r! 0, 1, 2, 3 in (1), we get P(r)
=
e 2 0!
2 e
.1353
Putting r
P(1) P(3)
2P(0)
2 x .1353
=
.2706;
P(2) =
P(1)
P(2)
P(3) =
Example 2. Assume that the probability of an individual coalminer being killed in a mine accident during a year is Use Poissons distribution to calculate the probability 2400 that in a mine employing 200 miners there will be at least one fatal accident in a year. 1 200 1 Sol. Here = 200; = = .083 = 2400 = 2400 r e (.083Y e 0 P(r)= r! r! P(at least one fatal accident) = 1 p (no fatal accident)
. ..
=1P(0)=1
(083)
0.83
=1.92=.08.
Example 3. Data was collected over a period of 10 years, showing number of deaths firi horse kicks in each of the 200 army corps. The distribution of deaths was as follows: No. of deaths: 0 1 2 3 4 Total Frequency: 109 22 65 3 1 200 Fit a Poisson distribution to the data and calculate the theoretical frequencies: (M.D.U. May 2009) It 65+44+94 122 Sol. Mean of given distribution = 061 = 200 = = This is the parameter (m) of the Poisson distribution.
= 200e . 06
06V
= 200 x 0.5435
= 108.7 x
r!
280
r
0 1

P(r)
108.7 108.7 x 0.61 (0.612 108.7 108.7x 108.7x 2 (0.61) (0.6lY
= =
Theoretical frequency
109
66.3 20.2 66 20 4 1
3
4
=4.1 =0.7
Total
200
Example 4. A carhire firm has two cars, which it hires out day by day. The number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean 1.5. Calcu late the proportion of days on which neither car is used and the proportion of days on which 5 = 0.2231) some demand is refused. (e Sol. Since the number of demands for a car is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean m = 1.5. Proportion of days on which neither car is used = Probability of there being no demand for the car moe_m = e 5 = 0.223 1 =
Proportion of days on which some demand is refused = probability for the number of demands to be more than two
mmJ
5 (i+i.+ =1e
10.2231(1+1.5+ 1.125)
= 1 0,2231 x 3.625 = 1 0.8087375 = 0.1912625. coins are tossed 6400 times. Using the Poisson distribution, determine Example 5. Six (U.P.T.U. 2008) the approximate probability of getting six heads x times. Sol. Probability of getting one head with one coin =
16
..
1
=
np
6400 x
100
The mean of the Poisson distribution = 100. Approximate probability of getting six heads x times when the distribution iS Poisson )X 00 mxe_m (j
x!
(100)!
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
281
EXERCISE 5.5
1. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following: 0 1 2 3 4 192 f: 100 24 3 1 If the probability of a bad reaction from a certain injection is 0.001, determine the chance that out of 2000, individuals more than two will get a bad reaction. If X is a Poisson variate such that P(X = 2) = 9P(X = 4) + 90P(X = 6), find the standard deviation. If a random variable has a Poisson distribution such that P(1) = P(2), find (i) mean of the distribution (ii) P(4). (P. T. U. Dec. 2005) P(X = 1) find, (i) P(X = 0) (ii) P(X = 3). A certain screw making machine produces on average 2 defective screws cut of 100, and packs them in boxes of 500. Find the probability that a box contains 15 defective screws. M.D. U Dec. 2005) A manufacturer knows that the condensers he makes contain on an average 2% defective. He packs them in boxes of 100. What is the probability that a box selected at random wili contain 3 or more defective condensers? (MD. U. May 2007) Fit a Poisson distribution to the following and calculate theoretical frequencies: 1 4 0 2 3 122 15 60 2 1 (M.D. U 2006, Dec. 2007, May 2008) Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data given the number of yeast cells per squar for 400 squares: No. of cells per sq.: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8 10 103 143 98 42 8 4 2 0 0 0 No. of squares: 0 (S.V.T.U 2007)
=

2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
7.
8.
9.
10. 11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
times the Show that in a Poisson distribution with unit mean, mean deviation about mean is standard deviation. In a certain factory turning razor blades, there is a smaii chance of 0.002 for any blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10. Use Poisson distribution to calculate the approximate number of packets containing no defective, one defective and two defective blades respectively in a consignment of 10000 packets.(K U.K Dec., 2009; Madras 2006; U.P.T. U. 2009) The probability that a man aged 35 years will die before reaching the age of 40 years may be taken as 0.018. Out of a group of 400 men, now aged 35 years, what is the probability that 2 men will die within the next 5 years? Suppose a book of 585 pages contains 43 typographical errors. If these errors are randomly dis tributed throughout the book, what is the probability that 10 pages, selected at random, will be free from ecrors? The side effects of a certain drug ctse discomfort to only a few patients. The probability that any individual will suffer from these side effects is 0.002. If the drug is given to 3000 patients, what is the probability that (i) exactly 3 (ii) 5 or more than 5 will suffer side effects? (P. T. U Dec. 2005) The probability that a man aged 50 years will die within a year is 0.01125. What is the probabil ity that out of 12 such men, at least 11 will reach their fifty first birthday?
(flvn
135 = p
(a)
fl R757fl
282
Answers
0.503
(9
r 503
1. 320 x
2. 0.32 6 (1O) e
=
3. 1 0.035 7. 0.3235
2 4. (i) 2 (ii) i 3e
,wherer=0, 1,2,3,4 r! Theoretical frequencies are 121, 61, 15, 3, 0 respectively 9. Theoretical frequencies are 109, 142, 92, 40, 13, 3, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0 13. 0.4795 12. 0.01936 11. 9802, 196, 2 15. 0.99166. (ii) 0.7150 14. (i) 0.1784
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
5.26. NORMAL DISTRIBUTION (K U.K Dec. 2009; U.P.T.U. 2007)
The normal distribution is a continuous distribution. It can be derived from the Binomial distribution in the limiting case when n, the number of trials is very large andp, the probability The general equation of the normal distribution is given by of a success, is close to
.
1
IS
1 (x
where the variable x can assume all values from 00 to + oo. and a, called the parameters of the distribution, are respectively the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution and 00< < oo, a> 0. x is called the normal variate and fix) is called probabffity density function of thenormal distribution. If a variable x has the normal distribution with mean i and standard deviation a, we briefly write x: N(p., a ). 2 The graph of the normal distribution is called the normal curve. It is bellshapped and symmetrical about the mean i. The two tails of the curve extend to + o and 00 towards the positive and negative directions of the xaxis respec tively and gradually approach the xaxis without ever f(x) metting it. The curve is unimodal and the mode of the normal distribution coincides with its mean j.t. The line x = ii divides the area under the normal curve above x axis into two equal parts. Thus, the median of the dis tribution also coincides with its mean and mode. The area under the normal curve between any two given 1 and x = x 2 represents the probability ordinates x = x C) of values falling into the given interval. The total area under the normal curve above the xaxis is 1.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
283
(x
e20)
aJ 1. The total area under normal probability curve is unity. Normal probability curve is given by
2 (xm)
2 e20
Area under
this curve
r ydx= =j

re ,__j aq2it
1

(x_m)2 2
2o
dx
Put
=t,
dx=a.Jdt a dt
=
2 Required :a
=
L t 2 dt
1.
2. The mean of the normal distribution. The general form of the normal curve is N
2 (xm)

2 (xm)
Efx = t, dx 1
=
yx dx
=
202
dx
m
=
=
dt
f (m
2 _
2 a dt a) et
m C =I e
dt
2 isanoddfunctionoft te_t
3. For a normal curve, the ordinate at the mean is the maximum ordinate.
(xm) 2 202
,
aq2it
___
Mean = m
284
dy clx y 2 d
N
=
e
N
r
2(x m) 2 2a
N(x
m) e
2 (xm)
202
[.
2 (xm)
2 (xm)
202
(x (x
m) . e
202
2(x rn) 1 2 2a
N
=
.e
2 (xm)
202
[i
rn)2]
Now
Ed2yl
and
jj
L
dy =0 whenx=m dx
N
=
Hence y, the ordinate is maximum when x maximum ordinate. 4. The mode of the normal distribution. The equation of the normal curve is
(x_m)2
Jx=m
N
=

Mode is the value of x corresponding to y = y , where y 0 0 is the maximum frequency. Proceeding as in Example 3, y is maximum when x = m. Hence the mode = the mean = m. 5. The median of the normal distributioh. If M is the median of the normal distribution, we have
M
N
1
e
1
2 (xln)
2o
2
(xm)2
SM e
m
202
dx=2 dx +
2 (xm)
202
2 (xm)
jM
202
dx
Gm (x_m)2
Now
a1
1
Sm So et2(a.J)dt,
e2a d 2 x

where
xm a
=t
1 o
From (1) 1 + 2 1
1
2
1Me___dx=
Jm
2 (xm)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
285
Hence for the normal distribution, mean, median and mode coincide. 6. The variance and standard deviation of a normal distribution. The equation of the normal curve is
2 (xm)
202
dx
=>
N e a2n
,,_
2 (xm)
202
,
Mean
2 (xm)
202
m
=
Variance
N 1 e N o
(x
2 dx rn)
1 a
2 (xm)
(x
2 e rn)
dx
Putting Variance
xm
=, =
dx=a,Jdt
t 2 f 2a
.
.
2 e
A
a dt
2 t2e_t
a,J
=
2 Putting t
=
2 dt=_J t2e_t qo
=
dt
z, 2t dt
or
Variance
dx dx dt=j=
402
ze z
dz
.
202
=
Lz
112
cZz
= 2 = $z32_1e_2dz=
=F()
Standard deviation = .JVariance = a. 7. The points of inflexion of the normal curve. Let the equation of the normal curve be
y

(xm) 2 202
Taking logarithms
logy=log 1 a/2n
(xm) 2 a2
1 d y 2 2 ydx
2 (dy
y2I.,dx)
286
y 2 d
1 (dy 2
y
2 a
1 y (xm) 2
4 a
y
2 a
2yi1x)
=j
[(xmY.a]
At a point of inflexion.
2
2 dx (xm = 2 a )
t\
3 d
or
ard deviation.
a and the other at m + a, i.e., at a distance from the mean, equal to the standard deviation. 8. The mean deviation from the mean of the normal distribution is about of its stand
xma
2 (xm)
202
=Jyixmicix=
9
=
_$ aq2,t
IxmI.e
202
r IzIe _2 dz,wherez=
srn
a
IzI=
=i
1z
Z
if zcO if zO
_$te dt
2 zeZ
1 dz
where t=z
____._Ffze4z2 JLo
(
..
dzJ 2 zeZ dz
=oJze_2dz=aje_4tdt,wher:t=z2
[01]
PO8ABILITY DSTRBUflONS
287
0.7979a
a (approx.)
and
has the normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. The random variable Z is called the stand ardized (or standard) normal random variable. The probability density function for the normal dis tribution in standard form is given by
12
fi
)_e
It is free from any parameter. This helps us to compute areas under the normal probability
curve by making use of standard tables. Note 1. If fiz) is the probability density function for the normal distribution, then
1 P(z
Z
) 2 z
2 z
fiz) dz
) 2 F(z
/tz) dz
P(Z
z)
The function F(z) defined above is called the distribution function for the normal distribution. Note 2. The probabilities P(z 1 Z z ), P(z 2 1 <Z z ), P(z 9 1 Z<z ) and P(z 2 1 <Z < z ) are all 2 regarded to be the same. Note 3. ) = 1 F(z 1 F( z ). 1
ILLUSTRAflVE EXAMPLES
Example l.A sample of 100 dry battery cells tested to find the length of life produced the following results: = 12 hours, a = 3 hours. Assuming the data to be normally distributed, what percentage ofbattery cells are xpected to have life (i) niore than 15 hours (ii) less than 6 hours (iii) between 10 and 14 hours? (P.T.U. May 2005) Sol. Here x denotes the length of life of dry battery cells. x 9 x1 Also z= = a 3 (i)Whenx=15,z=1 P(x>15)=P(z>1)
=P(0<z <oo)P(0<z< 1) = .5 0.3413 = 0.1587 = 15.87%.
288
10, z
0.67
Whenx= 14,z=
0.67
P(10<x< 14) = PC 0.67 <z <0.67) = 2P(0 <z < 0.67) = 2 x 0.2487 .67 0 .67 = 0.4974 = 49.74%. Example 2. In a normal distribution, 31% of the items are under 45 and 8% are over 64. Find the mean and standard deviation of the distribution. (J.N.T.U. 2003; P.T.U. Dec. 2003, May 2004; U.P.T.U. 2003) Sol. Let and a be the mean and S.D. respectively. 31% of the items are under 45. Area to the left of the ordinate x = 45 is 0.31 1 Whenx=45, let z=z <z<0)=.5.31=,19 1 P(z x=64 x=45 X= 2 z=z 1 zO z=z From the tables, the value of z corresponding to this area is 0.5 0] =0.5[z z < 1 2 Whenx=64, let z =z ) = .5 .08 = .42 2 P(0 <z <z From the tables, the value of z corresponding to this area is 1.4. 2 = 1.4 z
I .4%%%
AAAAAAWJ
Since
and
a 64i 45 and 1.4 0.5 = a a 45i =0.5a 64 = 1.4a 19=1.9a :. a=10 Subtracting 45=0.5x10=5 :. =50. From (1),
...(1)
EXERCISE 5.6
If z is the standard normal variate, then find the following probabilities: (ii)P(2.3z1.5) (i)P(1z2) (iv) P (z 0.56) (iii) P ( 0.42 z 2) (vi)P(I z I 1) (u)P(I z 1) 2. Let X be a random variable having a normal distribution with mean 30 and standard deviation 5. Find the probability that (iii) I X 24 I <8 (ii) I X30 I >5 (i) 26 X 40 (J.N,T. U. 2005; P.r. U. May 2006)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
289
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9. 10.
11.
12.
13. 14.
15.
16.
The mean height of 500 male students in a certain college is 151 cm and the standard deviation is 15 cm. Assuming the heights are normally distributed, find how many students have heights between 120 and 155 cm? An aptitude test for selecting officers in a bank is conducted on 1000 candidates. The average score is 42 and the standard deviation of score is 24. Assuming normal distribution for the scores, find (i) the number of candidates whose scores exceed 60 (ii) the number of candidates whose scores lie between 30 and 60. , how many 2 If the mean height of an Indian police inspector be 170 cm with variance 25 cm inspectors out of 1000 would you expect (ii) less than 160 cm? (i) between 170 cm and 180 cm in a final examination in statistics have a mean students of The marks obtained by a large group that these marks are approximately normally Assuming of 8.5. deviation of 58 and a standard distributed, what percentage of the students can be expected to have obtained marks from 60 to 69? The income of a group of 10,000 persons was found to be normally distributed with mean = Es. 750 p.m. and standard deviation = Rs. 50. Show that of this group about 95% had income exceed ing Es. 668 and only 5% had income exceeding Rs. 832. Vhat was the lowest income among the (U.P.T.U. 2005; P.T.U. Dec. 2006) richest 100? are under 63. What are the mean 89% and 35 are under items of the 7% In a normal distribution, and standard deviation of the distribution? Let X denote the number of scores on a test. If X is normally distributed with mean 100 and standard deviation 15, find the probability that X does not exceed 130. It is known from the past experience that the number of telephone calls made daily in a certain community between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. have a mean of 352 and a standard deviation of 31. What percentage of the time will there be more than 400 telephone calls made in this community between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m.? Students of a class were given a mechanical aptitude test. Their marks were found to be nor mally distributed with mean 60 and standard deviation 5. What per cent of students scored (ii) less than 56 marks? (i) more than 60 marks? (iii) between 45 and 65 marks? In an examination taken by 500 candidates, the average and the standard deviation of marks obtained (normally distributed) are 40% and 10%. Find approximately (i) how many will pass, if 50% is fixed as a minimum? (ii) what should be the minimum if 350 candidates are to pass? (iii) how many have scored marks above 60%? In a distribution, exactly normal, 9.85% of the items are under 40 and 89.97% are under 60. (P. T. U.De ?005) What are the mean and standard deviation of the distribution? normal with mean of be found to factory was The income distribution of workers in a certain above Rs. 600. How getting workers 228 were There 50. Rs. of deviation Es. 500 and standard many workers were there in all? The mean inside diameter of a sample of 500 washers produced by a machine is 5.02 mm and the standard deviation is 0.05 mm. The purpose for which these washers are intended allows a maximum tolerance in the diameter of 4.96 to 5.08 mm, otherwise the washers are considered defective. Determine the percentage of defective washers produced by the machine, assuming the diameters are normally distributed. Fit a normal curve to the following distribution: 10 8 6 4 2 x: (M.D. U. Dec. 2008) 1 4 6 4 f: 1
290 Answers 1. (1) 0.1359 (iv) 0.2877 2. (i) 0.7653 3. 300 5. (1) 477 7. Ra. 866.50
9. 0.9772
10. 6.06%
157.29, a
1
54.05
14. 10,000
_6)2
,j;e 2 16. y=