Currencies Daily Report

Friday| June 14, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| June 14, 2013

Highlights
• US Core Retail Sales increased by 0.3 percent in the last month month. • German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.4 percent in May. th • US Unemployment Claims declined to 334,000 for w/e on 7 June. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from US which beat the estimates. Further, expectations that Federal Reserve will make plans to keep the interest rates lower also supported an upside in global markets. US Core Retail Sales increased by 0.3 percent in May. Retail Sales rose by 0.6 percent in May as against a previous rise of 0.1 percent in April. Unemployment Claims declined by 12,000 to 334,000 for week ending th on 7 June une from earlier rise of 346,000 in prior week. Import Prices fell by 0.6 percent in last month as compared to drop of 0.7 percent in April. Business Inventories rose 0.3 percent in April with respect to decline of 0.1 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July’13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug’13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July’13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5699.1 18827.2 15176.08 1636.4 16116.3 1959.2 58497.8 12445.4 96.69 1377.60 21.58 7062.00 102.09 Prev. day -1.1 -1.1 1.2 1.5 0.6 -1.5 0.2 -6.4 0.8 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0

as on June 13, 2013 WoW -3.8 -3.5 0.9 0.9 -2.5 0.0 10.6 -0.1 2.0 -2.7 -4.9 -3.7 2.5 MoM -4.9 -4.5 -0.4 0.2 -7.9 -0.6 6.0 -20.4 1.6 -0.7 -4.7 -10.0 -2.2 YoY 11.4 2.9 21.4 24.4 23.2 2.0 5.7 45.2 17.0 -14.6 -25.4 -4.9 -1.0

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.3 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of better than forecast economic data from US US. Further, rise in risk appetite in global markets in later part of the trade added downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, expectations of the Fed keeping interest rates low acted as a negative factor for the currency. The DX touched an intra intra-day low of 80.51 and closed at 80.74 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June’13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.74 57.99 58.10 58.11 Prev. day -0.3 -0.3 0.36 0.26 WoW -1.0 -1.9 1.92 1.85

as on June 13, 2013 MoM -3.6 -5.8 5.91 5.93 YoY 1.6 -3.9 4.17 4.21

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated preciated on account of cut in the growth outlook of the economy to 5.7 percent by World Bank Bank. Further, weak domestic markets coupled with disappointing statement from Finance Minister as no concrete steps were taken added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the Rupee was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. Additionally, selling of dollars from exporters prevented sharp downside in the Rupee. . The currency touched an intra intraday low of 58.56 and closed at 57.99 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows flows totaled at Rs. Rs.905.30 crores th ($149.83 million) as on 13 June 2013. Year to date basis, ne net capital th inflows stood at Rs.82,299.80 crores ($15,203.10 203.10 million) till 13 June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market markets. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the currency currency. Additionally, country’s Wholesale Prices Index (WPI) inflation data is expected to come on a positive note which will lead to appreciation in the Rupee.

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for June 14, 2013 Support 57.90/57.75 Resistance 58.25/58.40

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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| June 14, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated 0.3 percent in the yesterday’s trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets in the later part of the trade also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro to touched an intra-day high of 1.339 and closed at 1.3374 against ainst the dollar on Thursday. . However, sharp upside in Euro was capped on account of unfavourable economic data from Germany. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.4 percent in May from earlier fall of 0.2 percent a month ago. Outlook In today’s session, we expect the Euro to strength on the back of rise in risk appetite in global markets. Additionally, weakness in the DX along with forecast for favorable economic data from the region will support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 77.15/76.90 77.60/77.80 valid for June 14, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June ’13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3374 77.25 77.4 Prev. day 0.3 -0.2 0.76

as on June 13, 2013 WoW 1.0 -2.6 3.58 MoM 3.5 -9.0 8.70 YoY 5.9 -12.4 10.86

77.4

0.68

3.50

8.69

10.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, rise in risk appetite in global markets in later part of the trade acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day day high of 1.5 1.5734 and closed at 1.5718 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for June 14, 2013 Support 90.80/90.60 Resistance 91.20/91.40

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June’13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June ’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5718 91.1 90.94 Prev. day 0.26 0.42 0.48

as on June 13, 2013

WoW 0.7 2.73 3.32

MoM 3.3 8.54 7.92

YoY 1.1 5.42 4.89

90.92

0.34

3.27

7.91

4.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| June 14, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated 0.7 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 93.78 78 and closed at 95 95.36 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, preciate, taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which will lead to fall in demand for the low-yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 14, 2013 Support 61.45/61.30 Resistance 61.80/62.0 Last 95.36 0.6069 61.70 61.70 Prev day -0.7 0.21 2.95 2.95 as on June 13, 2013 WoW -1.6 3.99 7.17 7.10 MoM -6.8 12.51 14.15 14.15 YoY 20.1 -13.49 -11.82 -11.78

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June’13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June’13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 14, 2013
Indicator Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes CPI y/y Core CPI y/y MPC Member McCafferty Speaks PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Current Account Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Japan Euro Euro UK US US US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 2:30pm 2:30pm 3:20pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:25pm Actual Forecast 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% -110B 77.9% 0.3% 84.9 Previous 1.4% 1.0% -0.7% 0.1% -110B 77.8% -0.5% 84.5 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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