The next 5 years in Mobile

* i.e. everything

‘Business as Usual’ is dead

Nest Smart Meter App

Scenes at papal inaugurations 2005 versus 2013

Image via Ericsson

Image via Ericsson

A majority of your 2018 revenues is likely to come from products and services that don’t even exist today

The End of ‘Protected Spaces’ is near

Media Telecom Banking Money Medical Pharma

Mobile Broadband is a cash-cow shifter

Cloud Culture: Abundant...Everything
Photo by incurable_hippie - http://flic.kr/p/4XtorH

Beware: “Managed Dissatisfaction” is ending
Reed Hastings, Netflix CEO on Arrested Development, House of Cards, and the Future of Netflix: Movies + TV: GQ via Quartz.com

“Hastings call this managed dissatisfaction. The traditional entertainment ecosystem is built on it, and it’s a totally artificial concept”
The point of managed dissatisfaction is waiting. You’re supposed to wait for your show that comes on Wednesday at 8 p.m., wait for the new season, see all the ads everywhere for the new season, talk to your friends at the office about how excited you are...”

The Internet of Everything

Video Source: Cisco via Youtube

1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 1 6 - 3 2 - 6 4 - 1 2 8

Soon: 1000s of smart little helper ‘agents’

Video Source: Cisco via Youtube

Video Source: IBM Future Scenarios, Youtube

http://soulofstartrek.blogspot.ch/2012/01/enterprise-d-in-hd-captains-log-next.html

13

ETA: 2017 ‘Business as Usual’ is dead

Mobility (R)Evolutions:
Huge social, economic, ethical implications
Used to be Is (almost) Soon for some Beyond soon but quite likely

Expect a $250 Billion shift, globally

2015: ICT | Big Data | SoLoMo Intelligence everywhere

Most products become services

From ownership to access

Being human
in a ‘totally digital’ society
Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf

Massive Human - Machine /AI Interface (R)Evolution

Deep, real-time, contextual data ☯ Fast & ubiquitous connectivity ☯ Location-aware services ☯ Powerful yet cheap mobile devices
☯ Cloud computing culture ☯ Video is the new text ☯ Social-everything ☯ Ultra-smart electronic agents ☯ The Internet of Things / M2M

=
Mobile Devices are our external brains

Total Convergence
n o i t a m r o f n I s t n Eve s g n Thi a t a D
Offline Human Machi ne

Online

Machine / Robot / AI Jobs versus Human Jobs
Traditional human labor will shift to machines, dramatic rise of highly ie only-human work
90
Machines, Software Agents, AI, Robots Trad. Human ONLY Human * supported by Machines

68

45

23

0 Today
Source: Gerd Leonhard Projection

2015

2020

2040

Paradigm-shifts on an unprecedented scale

Knowledge | Creative | Connective-Workers
...using real-time information and intelligence supplied by an exponentially growing digital network that will leverage the IoT / IoE and Smart Machines

Most of us already are or will become

Humarithms: emotional, fluid, organic ≠ Algorithms

Next: fabricated realities...? Realness will prevail

Brands: make sense not noise:)

Image source: http://pinterest.com/cibbva/

Image source http://itvtu.blogspot.ch/2012_08_01_archive.html

Business Models: the direction is clear!
Locked

Loose

Liquid

Flexible. Resilient. Decentralized

Data is the new Oil

(again:::)

If Data is the new Oil let’s hope we will do things differently, this time

The 3 spheres of data: shift towards anticipation
Volunteered

Observed

Inferred

Personal Data. Granular Permissions. Timely Knowledge. Precise Location Awareness. Highly Contextual. Totally Realtime = Predictive Powers.

37

The Future: Contextual Search (contextual everything:)

conducting themselves

Most technologies that we used to direct will start

We are being searched...soughtout...found

Searching for something

Information seeking us i.e. we are ‘being searched’

Everything becomes: Dynamic Real-time Social Mobile Local Fluid Predictive

In order for any of this to work, we will need a

Gigantic Opt-in

/www.brandnewmedia.co.uk/2012/02/29/the-joy-of-not-being-sold-anything/

We need to consider the social implications of IoT and IoE, Big Data, M2M, AI, Prediction technologies

Let’s not kill the golden goose

Do we really need more ‘intelligent marketing’ just to create the next Generation of Human

Consumption Machines...?
Photo by the justified sinner - http://flic.kr/p/djnXUR

Attention Economy ☯ Intention Economy

Via Wikipedia: “Doc Searls coined the term in the Linux Journal: "The Intention Economy grows around buyers, not sellers. It leverages the simple fact that buyers are the first source of money, and that they come ready-made. You don't need advertising to make them" Despite the advancement internet businesses are still seller oriented.
Searls gives an example of intention economy scenario:

"A car rental customer should be able to say to the car rental market, 'I'll be skiing in Park City from March 20-25. I want to rent a 4-wheel drive SUV. I belong to Avis Wizard, Budget FastBreak and Hertz 1 Club. I don't want to pay up front for gas or get any insurance. What can any of you companies do for me?' — and have the sellers compete for the buyer's business."

Yet we must retain places like this

And we will certainly need seriously reliable

Ways to Opt-Out

48

“We’re at the level of infants in moral responsibility but with the technological capability of adults”
Nick Bostrom (Oxford University)
BBC News - How are humans going to become extinct? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22002530

Faustian Bargains everywhere?

A love-hate relationship between us and the users of our data?

Photo by Zanthia - http://flic.kr/p/bpXtEx

5 Billion ‘Consumers’ will push back

From mousetraps to magnets

Summary & Key Take-Aways

Thanks for your time and attention!
Visit GerdCloud.com to download this PDF (and many others incl. my free books)

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