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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar - Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Monsoon not Maharashtra enough yet for drought-hit districts of

Market Highlights (% change)


Last Prev. day

as on June 18, 2013


WoW MoM YoY

The drought-hit districts of Maharashtra have started receiving some rainfall but not enough, just yet, according to the state government. Monsoon arrived ahead of schedule in most parts of western India, but Aurangabad, Nanded and Jalna districts, which are part of Marathwada region, have not received enough rain. The average rainfall in these areas has been about 100mm to 120 mm. Though there has been some increase in the water level in dams, there has not been enough rain for agriculture in this region. (Source: Economic Times)

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19223 5814 58.85 98.44 1367

-0.53 -0.62 1.26 0.69 -1.17

0.42 0.43 0.87 3.21 -0.76

-5.24 -6.04 7.20 2.52 0.12

15.07 14.80 5.40 18.22 -15.94

.Source: Reuters

Speed up pepper adulteration probe


The Madhya Pradesh-based Kalimirch Vyaapari Association has urged the Commissioner of Food Safety, Kerala to expedite its investigation into adulteration of pepper at warehouses of the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange in Kerala and submit its report soon. The Association highlighted the delay of over five months in testing black pepper sealed at NCDEX-authorised warehouses for traces of mineral oil. The 6,800 tonnes of pepper locked up at the warehouse is valued at Rs 300 crore. (Source: Business Line)

Monsoon fills Gujarat reservoirs; sowing picks up


With the early onset of the monsoon and Gujarat receiving nearly 17 per cent of its annual rainfall in the first two weeks of June, the State has warded off fears of a prolonged summer causing an acute water crisis, and sowing of seeds has picked up. Sowing of major cash crops such as groundnut and cotton has commenced across the State. By the end of last week, cotton had been sown over nearly 1,200 hectares and groundnut over 500 hectares, an agriculture official said. Paddy cultivation, however, is yet to begin in the Charotar areas of Central Gujarat, which are yet to receive adequate rains. Last year, groundnut and cotton was sown in 14,500 and 27,000 hectares, respectively. (Source:
Business Line)

Sugarcane production may decline by 20%


Sugarcane production is going to decline this year as the state will produce 20% less sugarcane compared to last crop year. In the last crop year, Karnataka had produced 3.20 crore tons of sugarcane, and it is expected to touch 2.6 crore ton this year. According to State Sugarcane Growers' Association, farmers are abandoning sugarcane cultivation due to increased cost of cultivation and decrease in profits. Experts contend that the shortfall is due to severe dry conditions last year, and the same is said to have taken a toll on the current year crop. (Source: Times of India)

Govt may sell 10 mt wheat from Central pool


The Government proposes to offload about 10 million tonnes (mt) of wheat from the Central pool stocks in Punjab to domestic bulk buyers and exporters. This open market sale could help the Government control rising domestic prices on the lower-than-expected crop. The Food Ministry has moved a proposal that may come up before the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs soon. Of the 10 mt, about 8.5 mt would be earmarked for domestic bulk buyers under the open market sale scheme (OMSS) at a likely price of around Rs 15,000 a tonne, official sources said. (Source: Business Standard)

Russia wheat harvest starts early; volumes seen up, quality down
Russia, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, will start this year's wheat harvest on a large scale next week, two weeks earlier than usual, the state weather forecaster said on Tuesday. Last year, a drought slashed Russia's wheat harvest by one third, while the share of higherquality milling wheat increased. This year, wheat volumes are expected to recover to near previous levels, while quality falls back to the usual level of about 70 percent milling wheat and 30 percent feed wheat, traders said. Russia's southern regions of Krasnodar and Stavropol, responsible for its largest wheat production and cereal export via the Black Sea, started the harvest a few days ago, according to a representative at the weather forecaster. (Source: Reuters)

Vidarbha farmers may shift to Soya crop this Kharif season


Large number of traditional cotton growers in Vidarbha region may shift to soya this Kharif season as cropping pattern was set to change after the onset of monsoons, according to agriculture experts. The total cotton sowing area is likely to be reduced by 10 lakh hectares from 40 lakh hectares on one hand and an increase by the same numbers in soya cultivation area may take place, since soya was a cash crop and yield was satisfactory in terms of acerage, they said. Another reason could be that cotton growing has become costly and returns are poor. (Source: Business
Standard)

Farmers to get maize seed worth Rs. 1.62 cr


Maize seed of worth Rs 1.62 crore will be distributed in four blocks of Fatehgarh Sahib district this season Chief agriculture officer Jasvir Singh said the Punjab government is providing 75% subsidy to farmers on maize seed. He said the Punjab government is making all efforts to promote maize cultivation in the district so the maize seeds worth Rs 1.62 crore will be distributed for only Rs 40.5 lakh. Bains, on Tuesday, flagged off four special vans to encourage farmers on maize cultivation. (Source: Hindustan Times)

Olive oil import up by 66% to nearly 12,000 tonne in FY13


Olive oil import rose by 66 per cent to 11,916 tonnes in 2012-13 despite rise in global prices, an industry body said today. India imported 11,916.76 tonnes in the year ending March 2013 as compared to 7,163.08 tonnes in March 2012, producing a never-before-seen increase of 66.36 per cent, Indian Olive Association said in a statement. normal size. Spain and Italy continued to dominate Indian imports in fiscal year 2013 with Spain accounting for 59.18 per cent and Italy 31.26 per cent in total imports. (Source: Business Line)

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures settled almost flat as supplies are sufficient to cater the domestic demand. July futures settled 0.13% higher on Tuesday. Chana prices are sustaining above their MSP levels since past two weeks. Despite of god demand at such lower levels, sharp upside in the prices is capped despite of good demand mainly on account of higher production this season along with good progress of monsoon is restricting. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced in the rain fed areas Maharashtra & Karnataka on account of timely and normal rains. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX June'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 18, 2013 % change Last 3171 3197 Prev day -0.46 0.13 WoW -0.91 0.95 MoM -6.52 -4.54
Source: Reuters

YoY -24.95 -22.21

Spread Matrix
Closing 3170.75 3197 3227 3294 20-Jun-13 26.25 0 -

as on June 18, 2013 19-Jul-13 56.25 30 0 20-Aug-13 123.25 97 67 0 as on June 15, 2013 Stocks as on 14th June 74497 43351 10116 127964 Qty in Process 1059 233 463 1755

Spot 20-Jun-13

Demand supply scenario


Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 15th June 75038 43472 10116 128626 Qty in Process 669 112 522 1303

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana may trade on a mixed note today. Declining arrivals from major producing states as well as good demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels. However, good rains, thereby, prospects of better kharif sowing may pressurize prices at higher levels. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 19, 2013 Resistance 3240-3255

3196-3210

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean continued with its upward trend for fifth straight session on account of tight supplies of the oilseed in the domestic markets coupled with good soy meal export demand. Spot as well as July futures settled % and 1.7% higher on Tuesday. Despite of good progress of monsoon & hopes of better sowing, Soybean prices remained in a positive territory on account of supply tightness in the domestic markets along with the firmness in the international markets due to delayed planting. In the domestic markets, the planting of kharif oilseeds such as groundnut, sesame and castor has started in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Soybean sowing has commenced with good monsoon over Maharashtra and MP. Monsoon has covered almost the entire country a month before the normal schedule. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds sowing is 1.57 lakh ha against 1.56 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean remained firm during most part of the session however settled marginally lower by 0.1percent on Tuesday. Price are on an upward trend since past few weeks as supplies are tight till the new crop arrives in the US and delayed planting will further delay harvesting adding to the already squeezed stocks. According to the latest USDA report, 85% planting is complete as against 98% last year and a five year average of 91%. The government is predicting record soybean yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed planting & damaged crops already in ground prevented farmers from sowing all of their seeds. According to NOPA, soybean crush increased from 120.1 mn tn in April to 122.6 mn tn in May.

Market Highlights

as on June 18, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.78 2.41 -0.12 -0.03 0.20 2.18 6.45 -1.93 -0.65 -0.65

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX June '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3985 4011 1511 3509 3502

MoM -1.41 -0.73 4.30 -0.90 -0.17

YoY 14.91 14.75 9.14 -7.96 -5.63

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3985 4011 3955.5 3241 20-Jun-13 26 0 19-Jul-13 -29.5 -55.5 0 -

as on June 18, 2013 20-Aug-13 -744 -770 -714.5 0 as on June18, 2013 19-Jul-13 12.25 19 0 20-Aug-13 59.25 66 47 0 as on June 15, 2013 Qty in Process 1636 273 0 1909 as on June 15, 2013 Qty in Process 50 30 111 0 1953 20 50 2214 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3508.75 3502 3521 3568 20-Jun-13 -6.75 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 15th June 17600 1903 401 19904 Stocks as on 15th June 2960 3033 19915 634 54784 4492 1580 87398 Qty in Process 822 0 0 822 Qty in Process 50 222 71 0 747 40 20 1150 Stocks as on 14th June 16787 1603 401 18818 Stocks as on 14th June 2960 3023 19752 634 53042 4492 1550 85453

Outlook
Soybean prices may continue with its upward trend in the intraday supported by tight supplies in the domestic markets along with strong gains in the international markets as a result of delayed planting.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard futures July futures declined 0.2% on Tuesday on account of higher supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt. However, positive sentiments in other oilseed and edible oil complex, restricted sharp fall in the prices. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may remain under downside pressure on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 19, 2013 Support 3880-3914 3490-3505 Resistance 3984-4012 3540-3556

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil July contract traded gained 0.33% higher on accounts of rising demand for edible oil ahead of Ramadan. Rupee depreciation also supported prices. Edible oil prices have gained in the domestic markets in the last 2-3 weeks on account of weak rupee which was making imports costlier. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kgs `/10 kgs USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne Last 717 716.7 48.81 2465 504
CPO-MCX- June '13 Fut

as on June 18, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut

Prev day 0.46 0.33 -0.06 0.24 1.00

WoW 0.63 0.84 1.60 2.07 0.72

MoM -1.29 -1.27 -1.43 6.25 7.07

YoY 0.22 0.70 0.10 -15.87 -4.44

`/10 kg
Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 717 716.7 702.95 695.7 20-Jun-13 -0.3 0 19-Jul-13 -14.05 -13.75 0 -

as on June 18, 2013 20-Aug-13 -21.3 -21 -7.25 0 as on June 18, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade with a positive bias as festive season demand and weak rupee may support prices.

Crude Palm Oil


MCX CPO as well as Malaysian palm oil futures gained % higher on Monday. Prices have gained significantly on account of good demand ahead of Ramadan. Malaysia has set palm oil export tax at 4.5% for July, unchanged for the fifth month. Exports of Malaysian palm oil in first half of June surged as much as 19% as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1-15 rose 15.7 percent to 707,148 tonnes, compared with 611,277 tonnes shipped during May 1-15. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

CPO Spread Matrix


30-Jun-13 30-Jul-13 30-Aug-13 Closing 504 505.9 505.8 30-Jun-13 0 30-Jul-13 1.9 0 -

30-Aug-13 1.8 -0.1 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil


Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said.

MCX June contract

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade higher as good demand as well as lower yield period of Malaysian palm oil may support prices. Prices may also take cues from Rupee movement.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX June Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 19, 2013 Support 697-700 497-501 Resistance 706-710 507-510
Source: Telequote

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera has consolidated over the last few days and traded on a flat note yesterday. The spot as well as the July futures settled 0.15% and 0.06% higher on Tuesday. Good overseas demand is supporting prices at lower levels, while higher arrivals have pressurized prices. Currently, about 25-30% of total arrivals have been exported, mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,475 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13473 12978 5611 5628 Prev day 0.15 -0.44 0.88 -1.02

as on June 18, 2013 % Change WoW 0.28 0.52 2.50 6.43 MoM -0.66 -1.44 -7.89 -6.14 YoY -0.66 0.12 60.15 53.02

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX June '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX June '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 13472.5 12977.5 13162.5 13455 20-Jun-13 -495 0 19-Jul-13 -310 185 0 -

as on June 18, 2013 20-Aug-13 -17.5 477.5 292.5 0 as on June 18, 2013 20-Jun-13 16.9 0 19-Jul-13 -11.1 -28 0 20-Aug-13 72.9 56 84 0 as on June 15, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 14th June Process 727 7369 8096 4239 NCDEX July contract 176 237 413 368

Arrivals production and Exports


Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 9,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-42 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Turmeric Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 5611.1 5628 5600 5684

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade sideways today. Overseas demand may support prices at lower levels while good supplies may cap the upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 15th June 727 7369 8096 4378 Qty in Process 167 282 449 199

Turmeric
After gaining sharply over the last 5 sessions, Turmeric futures corrected from higher levels and settled 2.51% lower on Tuesday. Prices have gained on account of lower arrivals coupled with fresh export enquiries. However, good progress of the monsoon thereby expectations of good sowing have capped the gains. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports


Arrivals in Nizamabad mandi was reported at 2,500 bags while Erode mandi remained closed on Tuesday. Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note today. Prices may decline extending yesterdays losses coupled with huge carryover stocks. Good monsoon progress thereby prospects of good sowing may also add to the downside pressure. However, lower arrivals as well as spot demand and fresh export enquiries at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 19, 2013


Support 13000-13080 5420-5500 Resistance 13250-13340 5700-5790
Source: Telequote

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices declined by 0.19% on account of comfortable supplies coupled with improvement in monsoons in the sugarcane growing regions. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western part of the country have eased damage concerns. However, expectations of increase in the import duty coupled good demand ahead of Ramadan as well as concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year limited the downside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 42.09 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX June '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3083 `/qtl 489.4 $/tonne 372.44 $/tonne -1.00 -0.53 -0.03 Last 3064

as on June 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.19 -0.28 -0.23 2.73 2.89 MoM 0.40 0.98 2.77 -0.42 YoY 4.07 7.50 -19.93 -22.30

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Exports


After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Sugar Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3063.75 3083 3105 3157 20-Jun-13 19.25 0 19-Jul-13 41.25 22 0 -

as on June 18, 2013 20-Aug-13 93.25 74 52 0

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Total Stocks as on 15th June 998 5558 1022 7578 Qty in Process 700 550 0 1250 Stocks as on 14th June 998 4359 1022 6379

as on June 15, 2013 Qty in Process 700 1199 0 1899

Global Sugar Updates


LIFFE Sugar as well as Raw sugar on the ICE corrected on account of profit taking and settled 0.53% and 1% lower on Tuesday. Prices have declined due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Prices recovered over the preceding two sessions as rains have halted harvesting in Brazil over the last 7 days. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects South-Central Brazil cane crush at 589.60 million tons for 2013/2014. Main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, in its latest bi monthly report, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production. The ISO has forecast sugar surplus of atleast 3.5 mn tonnes for 2013-14 season. Reports that China may curb imports as their stocks have more than doubled last season have also added to the downside.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures are expected to trade on a mixed note today. Demand from stockists coupled with output concerns this season coupled with expectations of imposition of import duty may support prices.. However, weak international prices coupled with good rains in the cane growing regions may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 19, 2013 Resistance 3115-3122

3094-3100

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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
After witnessing profit booking on Monday, NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton continued with its upward trend on account of thin supplies and good demand for yarn. Weak domestic currency Firm international markets in the past 1-2 weeks had supported an upside in the cotton prices in the domestic markets. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October th 2012 until 26 May, 2013 were down at 311.17 lakh bales, down from 320.82 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1073 19130 84.98 96.05

as on June 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.94 0.14 0.58 0.00 -2.80 -3.50 -0.62 2.29 MoM YoY 4.17 9.43 0.00 19130 -1.22 2.41 2.73 15.10
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix


Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19130 19420 19720 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 18, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 290 0 590 300 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 15.85 lakh ha as against 15.72 lakh ha during the same period last year. Plating is almost complete in North India and sowing in Punjab and Haryana declined marginally. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced. Sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. Planting in Gujarat is yet to gain momentum.

Domestic Production and Consumption


Cotton Advisory Board in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the cotton advisory board which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse


Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 17th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 17, 2013

Stocks as on 16th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates


After witnessing significant gains over past 2 weeks cotton futures have declined in past two sessions as rains in West Texas raised cotton crop prospects in top US cotton producing state, leading to long liquidation in the markets. ICE Cotton futures settled 2.8% lower on Tuesday. Prices were trading around the highest levels in three months during the last week as USDA lowered its forecast for cotton inventory in the US for upcoming season due to a lower-than-expected crop in Texas. Further, lower planting was also supporting an upside in the cotton prices. Plantings were reported at 95% v/s 88% last week, 5 year avg of 97%.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX June contract

Outlook
Cotton may trade with upward bias during the intraday on account of thin supplies and good yarn demand. Weakness in the Indian rupee may also support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX June Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 19, 2013 Support 1058-1065 18850-18990 Resistance 1079-1086 19250-19360
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report


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Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures witnessed very volatile session on Tuesday as prices increased sharply in the early part of the session, but settled at lower limit of 4 percent. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing. Also, Stockiest who were holding stocks in anticipation of better prices liquidated stocks in the physical markets on expected normal monsoon thereby increasing supplies in the market.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX June 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX June 13 Fut `/qtl 7320 `/qtl 20272 `/qtl 21550 `/qtl -1.96 -8.45 -2.92 Last Prev day 7092 -7.54

as on June 18, 2013 % change WoW 8.28 8.61 5.83 4.92 MoM -24.95 -21.12 #N/A -23.42 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing


The southwest monsoon has now covered the entirety of India, four weeks ahead of schedule and the earliest on record. The early onset has brought hope of good sowing and higher output for the coming season. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 7092.3 7320 6830 5990 20-Jun-13 227.7 0 19-Jul-13 -262.3 -490 0 -

as on June 18, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1102.3 -1330 -840 0 as on June 18, 2013 19-Jul-13 337.85 -940 0 20-Aug-13 -1972.15 -3250 -2310 0 as on June 15, 2013 Stocks as on 14th June 30 Qty in Process 30

NCDEX Guargum Spread Matrix


Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 20272.15 21550 20610 18300 20-Jun-13 1277.85 0 -

Production and Exports


According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Deesa Stocks as on 15th June 30 Qty in Process 39

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
Overall trend remain bearish in Guar complex as conditions so far are favorable for smooth advancement of monsoon in the major guar growing belts. Further, supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 19, 2013 Support 6470-6650 6450-6620 19650-20130 19500-20000 Resistance 7150-7400 7150-7400 21000-21530 20950-21460

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com