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Yes. That’s what the Generalized Idea of Einstein’s Work Function Teaches us.
Table of Contents
§ No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Topic Summary My Comments Posted on “Should We Trust Economists?” Introduction If NYC’s Boroughs were Independent Cities Appendix 1: Staten Island Homicides Data (1990-2012) Appendix 2: Staten Island Demographics and Population Appendix 3: Homicides-Population Law: New Orleans Reference List Page No. 1 2 6 8 15 18 20 24
The number of homicides in New York City (NYC) dropped a historical low of 419 in 2012 and was duly noted by Mayor Bloomberg in his address on Public Safety to NYPD on April 30, 2013. Staten Island, the smallest of the five NYC boroughs had only 8 murders. However, a critical analysis of the 2012 homicides stats for the five boroughs, using y-x (or homicides-population) diagrams, and the idea of “work function”, reveals that Queens and Manhattan are actually safer than Staten Island. If we adjust mathematically for the differences in the population, the number of murders in these two boroughs is actually lower than in Staten Island. The (x, y) or (population, homicides) data, for the five NYC boroughs can be shown to fall a family of parallels lines with the general equation y = hx + c = h(x – x0) where “c” is the work function and x0 is the cut-off population below which no murders should be observed. Hence, if the “crime environment” in
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Staten Island were more like in Queens, the number of murders should actually drop to ZERO. This is the challenge that Mayor Bloomberg and NYPD should take on now after the historic reduction in the number of murders. The idea of a work function also suggests that it should be possible to reduce the number of murders in Bronx and Brooklyn as well by a careful study of the “crime environments” in the five boroughs. The “work function”, the name given by Einstein to the nonzero intercept c in the law y = hx + c = h(x – x0). This idea of a “work function” can thus be extended to many problems outside physics.
************************************************************ §2. My Comments Posted today June 20, 2013 (~8:30 AM) on Noah Smith’s article in The Atlantic, “Should We Trust Economists?”
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/should-we-trusteconomists/276497/ I just want to follow up on my earlier comment about the fundamentally flawed nature of ALL economic and financial analysis that is based on the simple y/x ratios. This can be understood, as I have discussed in detail, by considering Mayor Bloomberg's recent (self-flattering) comparison of the homicide rate of NYC with the homicide rates of other major cities. I am not interested in the usual debates that this type of a ratio analysis leads us to and which is what economists are guilty of. “Oh, Bloomberg is comparing apples and oranges; he is not taking into out account the demographics”. And, so on. Rather, as I have tried to show, if we shut out all of this noise and focus only on the mathematical aspect of the analysis, we can still gain some new
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insights. (Some articles recently suggest that, with the adoption of the computerized crime reporting tool called CompStat, NYPD is guilty of manipulating the reporting of crime statistics; see references. While this is a legitimate point of discussion, this falls outside the scope of my analysis. I have only re-analyzed the data, as is currently being reported, without doubting their veracity. It is the new methodology, which differs from using y/x ratios, which is my main focus. Even if the data were 100% correct, the y/x ratio analysis would still be flawed and that is my main point.)
In my update of the analysis today, I decided to compare NYC with itself. What is NYC? It is five boroughs grouped together into one single entity. If the five boroughs were independent cities, they would be among the top ten cities in the country. So, we can compare the individual boroughs with what we call NYC as well.
The idea of a "work function" (more on this soon) that I has been introduced in the analysis points us in a different direction. For example, we learn that Manhattan and Queens are actually safer than Staten Island, after dully accounting for the population differences. In 2012, there were 8 murders in Staten Island. This borough also has the lowest population. Hence, the y/x ratio works in favor of Staten Island. But, if we compare the boroughs using a x-y diagram and explore the nature of the homicides-population relation, we are led to the conclusion that both Queens and Manhattan have lower murders than Staten Island. This also means that Staten Island really should have ZERO murders. This is what Mayor Bloomberg and NYPD should be focused on. Why the 8 murders in Staten Island? Can Staten Island become murder free? Now, I would call that making progress.
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Is it possible? That is what the "math" tells us. That is what scientists and engineers do to test their ideas and theories. Such a conclusion CANNOT be drawn using conventional ratio y/x analysis and herein lies the message for the economists and Wall Street analysts if they are reading this. With some reflection, similar examples can be found in economics and financial data analysis. (There are numerous examples, indeed, see bibliography in the reference list.) Here's an example from physics and how it extends to our present problem. In the late 19th century, Heinrich Hertz observed a "curious spark" when he was trying to produce electromagnetic waves (what we now call radio waves) in the laboratory. As we know, he succeeded in his endeavor and so his name is now attached to the units for frequency “f” of any wave. Unfortunately, Hertz died at a young age. His assistant Phillip Lenard (click here) followed up on this "spark" and enunciated the laws of photoelectricity. Lenard showed that the "spark" was due to the production of electrons from the surface of a metal when it is exposed to ultraviolet rays or X-rays. (Lenard received the Nobel Prize in 1905, see reference list.) Lenard also observed a "cut-off" frequency below which no electrons are produced when light (even ordinary visible light, not just ultraviolet light or the X-rays) shines on the surface of a metal. This could not be explained using the wave theory of light, or Maxwell's far reaching idea that light must be a wave of electromagnetic origin. Then came the young Einstein with his idea of a photon, or a particle of light. He first showed (using a simplified version of Planck’s blackbody radiation law) that light can be thought of as a stream of particles (photons) with each particle having an energy equal to Planck's elementary energy quantum. Now Lenard's cut-off frequency could be explained, if one also introduces the idea of a "work function", i.e., the minimum energy needed to produce the electron. Einstein's photoelectric law can be written as K = E - W = hf - W where K is the maximum kinetic energy of the electron, E is the energy of the photon (light particle), W is the minimum energy, or the work function, f is the frequency of
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light and h the Planck constant. If E = W, K = 0 and no electrons can be observed. Hence, W = hf = hf0 represents the cut-off frequency, which is a manifestation of the work function (or the nonzero intercept). This will depend on the nature of the metal, i.e., the “environment” in which the electron is present. What has this got to do with NYC and the murders in the boroughs? The mathematical law relating homicides and population is also a simple linear law, y = hx + c, like the photoelectric law. Just like the cut-off frequency below which no electrons are produced, the law y = hx + c implies that there is a cutoff population below which no murders should be observed. That is what I see here with the analysis of the NYC boroughs homicides. If Staten Island were more like Queens or Manhattan, there would be ZERO murders. I just choose to see the same problem that Mayor Bloomberg looked at a little bit differently. This is the scientific method. This is what economists must practice. Instead, there are just endless arguments about one hand and the other hand and now frequently with a third underhand. I notice that the author Noah Smith is an assistant professor. Perhaps, besides asking these nice questions, he should consider the idea of a universal law that I have proposed (see also discussion of the maximum point in the homicides data) more seriously. There is a "work function" that applies to many problems outside physics. Economics and finance will, I am absolutely convinced, benefit from such insights. I wish Professor Noah Smith all the best in his future researches (using the idea of a "work function"). http://www.scribd.com/doc/147960590/Mayor-Bloomberg%E2%80%99sComparison-of-the-Homicide-Rates-in-Chicago-Detroit-and-New-York-Is-Reexamined
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This is brief follow up on a recent article (see Ref.  click here) where I have discussed in detail the wider implications of Mayor Bloomberg’s application of a simple y/x ratio analysis to compare (in a self-flattering manner) the homicide rate of New York City (NYC) with other major US cities, such as Philadelphia, Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit; see Table 1. The homicide rate is taken to be the ratio y/x where numerator y is the number of homicides (in a given time period, such as a year) and the denominator x is the population. Because of its huge population, the ratio y/x is actually biased in favor of NYC. Table 1: Bloomberg’s Comparison of Homicide Rates in Different Cities Population Homicides, Homicide Rate m Calculated Bloomberg City 2010 US in 2012, y rate, m = referred Homicides figures Census, x y/x per to NYC, (Relative millions 100,000 m/mNYC to NYC) NYC 8.175 419 5.13 1 DC 0.602 88 14.62 2.9 1196 1200 Chic 2.696 506 16.14 3.1 1319 1400 Phil 1.526 329 21.56 4.2 1763 1700 Balt 0.621 217 34.95 6.8 2857 2900 Det 0.714 411 57.58 11.2 4707 4500 LA 3.793 203 14.63 The above projections by Mayor Bloomberg assume, implicitly, that all cities must have essentially the same the homicide rate for comparison. 1 million = 10 times 100,000. See also: http://chicagowarrior.blogspot.com/2013/01/chicagocrime-500-murders-in-2012.html. For NYC, based on 2012 homicides figures, the homicide rate per 100,000 population is m = y/x = 419/81.75 = 5.13 = 5, approx. For Washington D. C. it works out to m ≈ 15, or about 3 times the NYC value and so on down the list. So, Bloomberg mentioned each city by name and finally said, “….…if we had had Detroit’s murder rate, more than 4,500 New Yorkers would have been murdered last year instead of 419. That’s a factor of ten.”
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With this background let’s compare the homicide rates in NYC with itself, instead of other cities. What we know as NYC consists of the five boroughs of Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, Bronx, and Staten Island. If these boroughs were independent cities, they would be among the top 10 cities in the US, see Table 2. Hence, instead of comparing NYC with Chicago or Detroit of Philadelphia, let us compare NYC with its boroughs. Table 2: The NYC Boroughs Compared to Other Major US Cities NYC Borough or City Los Angeles Chicago Brooklyn Queens Houston Manhattan Philadelphia Phoenix Bronx State Island Boston NYC Population 2010 2012 Homicides, US Census, x y 3,792,621 203 2,707,120 506 2,504,700 151 2,230,725 84 2,145,146 216 1,585,873 63 1,536,471 329 1,445,632 123 1,385,108 113 468,730 8 625,087 57 8,175,136 419 Homicides rate, y/x per 100,000 19.44 13.81 6.02 3.76 10.07 3.96 21.41 8.51 8.17 1.79 9.12 5.125
Data Sources: See Reference list at the end of the article. The % of total murders in each of the boroughs given by DeStefano in Ref.  was used to determine the actual number of murders in each borough. After the first publication of this analysis, I came across Refs. [8-10] and the NYPD CompStat  which gives the actual murders in each borough. For Staten Island the figure is 10 murders in 2012, not 8. However, this discrepancy does not change either the general conclusions or the methodology described here. The updated figures are used in the calculations presented in Appendix 1.
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§4. If NYC’s Borough Were Independent Cities
The calculations presented here also show how our “perceptions” are affected by the y/x ratios. For example, as we will see shortly, both Queens and Manhattan are actually safer than Staten Island, after duly adjusting for population. The single (x, y) pair for New York City can be broken up into five(x, y) pairs for the individual boroughs. This is illustrated in Figure 1.
y = mx = 51.25x
Homicides (in 2012), y
2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Population, x [millions]
Figure 1: The break down NYC murders for the five boroughs. The data for the five boroughs is scattered around the “ray” for NYC with the equation y = mx, with Brooklyn and Bronx falling above the ray and Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island falling below the ray. The raw data can be found in Refs. [33-35]. The mathematical equation of a straight line passing through the origin (0, 0) and any point (x, y) is y = mx where the ratio y/x = m equals the slope of the line. The higher the y/x ratio, the higher is the slope of the line. We will refer to such a line, which passes through the origin, as a “ray” to distinguish it from a
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line which does not pass through the origin and which has the general mathematical equation y = hx + c where h is now the slope of the line and c is the nonzero intercept made by the line on the y-axis (y = c when x = 0). In general, the ratio y/x = m = h + (c/x). Hence, y/x = h the slope of a line, if and only if, the intercept c = 0, i.e., the line passes through the origin (0, 0). If not the ratio y/x varies in a complicated manner depending on the numerical values of h and c, even if all the points lie on a PERFECT straight line. The homicide rate, the ratio y/x, is the slope of the “ray” joining the (x, y) pairs for the individual boroughs back to the origin (0, 0). This varies from a low of 1.79 per 100,000 for Staten Island to a high of 8.17 per 100,000 for Bronx. Nonetheless, the data points are seen to scatter around, rather tightly, along the NYC “ray” with the equation y = mx = 5.125 where m = 5.125 per 100,000 is the murder rate for NYC as a whole, used by Mayor Bloomberg in his comparisons. Instead of associating individual “rays”, or murder rates y/x, like we now do, with each borough, we could think of the five boroughs as falling on a family of parallels with the general equation y = hx + c. The parallels to the NYC ray with Bronx and Brooklyn having a positive intercept c and Queens and Manhattan having a negative intercept c, as illustrated in Figure 2. The idea of a “work function” can thus be associated with what we think of as more dangerous, or less dangerous, cities or boroughs. The “work function” is simply the name that was given by Einstein to the nonzero intercept in his photoelectric law; see comments attached to the Noah Smith article, “Can We Trust Economists?” An interesting insight offered by this idea of a work function is that Queens is actually safer than Staten Island, with lower total murders, after adjusting for the population. The murder rate y/x leads to the opposite conclusion (Staten Island is safer with lower per capita murders). This can be appreciated from the following.
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Homicides (in 2012), y
y = 51.25x + 42.14
y = 51.25x – 30.55
Population, x [millions]
Figure 2: Illustration of a “work function” for the NYC boroughs. Bronx, with the c = 42.14 (slope m for NYC is per million) defines the upper limit of murders. Brooklyn falls below this parallel and is thus safer, with lower murders after adjusting for the population. Queens and Manhattan fall on the lower parallel with Queens setting the lower limit with c = - 30.55. Queens is actually safer than Staten Island, after adjusting for the population. And, so is Manhattan. (Even if after correcting 8 murders in 2012 to 10 murders, the same conclusions apply.)
The parallel through the Staten Island data has the equation y = hx + c, see Figure 3. Since we are dealing with parallels h = m = 51.25 the same as the slope for the “ray” passing through the NYC data point. The unknown c can now be fixed since we know (x, y) values for Staten Island. Hence, the parallel through the Staten Island point has the equation y = 51.25x – 16.038.
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This can be checked by substitute x = 0.469 in this equation and we get y = 8, the number of murders observed for Staten Island. Now extrapolate along this Staten Island parallel to the value x = 2.231, the population for Queens and we get y = 98 murders for Queens. But, the actual murders observed were 84 and hence Queens is actually safer than Staten Island, given the higher population. The same goes for Manhattan with 63 murders instead of 65 predicted if Manhattan were to fall on the Staten Island parallel.
y = 51.25x
Homicides (in 2012), y
y = 51.25x – 16.038
Population, x [millions]
Figure 3: Illustration of a “work function” for the NYC boroughs. The NYC “ray” has the equation y = mx = 51.25x. The parallel through the Staten Island data point has the equation y = hx + c with slope h = m = 51.25 and c = -16.038. Now, extrapolating to higher populations, we see that the (x, y) pairs for Manhattan and Queens fall below the Staten Island parallel.
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Homicides (in 2012), y
500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 0.00
y = 51.25x
y = 51.25x – 14.038
Population, x [millions]
Figure 4: Corrected version of Figure 3, with 10 murders in Staten Island (based on NYPD CompStat figures for borough of State Island). The NYC “ray” still has the equation y = mx = 51.25x. The parallel through the Staten Island data point has the equation y = hx + c with slope h = m = 51.25 and c = -14.038 and x0 = -c/h = 0.274 million. With y = 8, c = - 16.038 and x0 = - c/h = 0.313 was higher. With the correction, the parallel through Staten Island makes a smaller intercept with the x-axis (cut-off population x0 is smaller). The extrapolation from Staten lsland yields a prediction of 100 murders for Queens (observed is 84, or lower) and 67 murders for Manhattan (observed is 63, or lower).
What does this mean in a practical sense? The theoretical model here predicts that belong a certain population level, the number of homicides should drop to zero. Hence, if Staten Island were more like Queens or Manhattan, the number of homicides should be zero, since the population is below the cut-off value, given by y
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= hx + c = h(x – x0) where x0 = -c/h is the cut-off population at which y = 0, i.e., the number of murders should drop to zero. For Queens, y = 51.25x – 30.54 = 51.25 (x – 0.596) For Manhattan y = 51.25x – 18.44 = 51.25 (x – 0.360) The numerical values of the cut-off population deduced from the Manhattan and Queens lines are x0 = 0.596 and x0 = 0.360 million, respectively. Hence, if the “crime environment” in Staten Island were more like in Queens we should actually observe ZERO murders in Staten Island. What are the reasons for the 8 (or 10) murders observed in 2012 in Staten Island? Staten Island should become totally murder free! That is what NYPD and Mayor Bloomberg should be looking forward to and that would represent the kind of progress that we should all be looking forward to. Can we reduce the number of murders in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Bronx? Yes, we can. There may be a lot to learn from what we observe in Queens. Finally, I cannot wonder about the proposal being made here, entirely on “heuristic” grounds and the Biblical story of Abel and Cain. Back then we had Adam and Eve and their two sons Cain and Abel (click here to read the story). The elder, Cain, became a farmer and the younger, Abel, a shepherd. But, alas, the first born child murdered his younger brother since he was angered by the fact that God did not accept his offerings of grain. Are we forever doomed then as far as eliminating murders from society? Perhaps, NYC and other smaller cities, with already low murder rates (or absolute number of murders, see Ref. ) can embark on a new experiment of truly Biblical proportions. Ironically, many of the murders in Staten Island appear to be killings by family members or acquaintances. There is very little that police departments can do about such murders.
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As noted by Detroit Mayor David Bing, when he released the Crime and Homicide Statistics for 2012, and I quote, “There are things that are happening in homes and families in the communities and in the neighborhoods that whether a cop is there or not, it's not going to stop the crime. We've got to get it into the heads and the minds and hearts of our young people and it's going to take all of us to do that.” “We've just lost respect for each other -- for life,” said Bing. “It's a terrible problem we're confronted with right now. It's going to take all of us to solve that problem.” Thursday’s (on Jan 3, 2013) press conference will be the first of a regular series of briefings on public safety in the city of Detroit, according to the mayor. Murder-free Staten Island? The same thoughts apply, although the math, and the idea of a “work function”, predicts we should indeed have ZERO murders in Staten Island.
Map of Staten Island showing the three precincts; Courtesy Google Maps. Map to the right shows upper bay area and location of Statue of Liberty.
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Appendix 1: Staten Island Homicides Data (1990-2012)
The following list was compiled from the various data sources cited in the reference list [9-12], for the period (1990-2012). Unfortunately, NYPD CompStat does NOT provide this information for the 2000s and should be re-organized to permit accessing data for any time period of interest.
Staten Island Homicides Data
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Murders on Staten Island
29 30 27 25 34 26 28 16 12 21
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Murders on Staten Island
13 9 8 15 20 12 21 16 16 17 10
Data Sources: See Reference List. The 2012 data has been updated to 10. A simple homicides versus time graph reveals a generally decreasing trend over the years. The straight line joining the two extreme points, for the years 1990 and 2012, represents the “average” rate of decline for the last two plus decades. The mathematical equation of this line can be written as y = A + Bt = 1747.64 - 0.864t where the negative slope B = dy/dt = -0.864 means a decrease of about 8.6 murders over 10 years or a little less than one murder per year. However, if we consider the data for 1990 and 2007, the number of murders decreased by (29 -12) = 17 over a period of (2007 -1990) = 17 of 1 murder per year exactly.
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40 35 30
25 20 15 10 5 0 1980
Time t [Calendar year]
Figure 5: The overall decline in the number of homicides in Staten Island for the period 1990-2012. Many murders seem to be killings between acquaintances and family members, such as the husband killing his wife, featured prominently for 2012. There is little that police can do to combat such crimes within the family. Only religious leaders can help and, perhaps, they should also be mobilized. Detroit Mayor Bing has made similar observations when he released the 2012 Crime and Homicides Stats. “We have lost respect for each other.” The overall slope of the graph ∆y/∆t = dy/dt = (29 – 10)/(1990-2012) = - 0.864 per year. Notice that the data seems to follow parallels to this reference line. The slope dy/dt is roughly the same between 1996 and 2011 (dy/dt = - 0.8 per year, when murders were higher) and also between 1997 and 2001 (dy/dt = - 0.75 per year, when murder were lower). This again represents the “jumps” in the “work function” for the event we call a homicide. The slope dy/dt = - 1 per year between 1990 and 2007 (a decrease of 17 murders in 17 years). This is illustrated in Figure 6.
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Time t [Calendar year]
Figure 6: The primary reference line is taken as the line joining 1990 and 2007, with the equation y = -1.0 t + 2019. The slope dy/dt = - 1 per year, exactly with a decrease of 17 murders over 17 years. Parallels (dashed line with slope – 1) to the primary reference line can be imposed as shown here. The lower line actually extrapolates to ZERO murders in 2012; see solid blue dots! There is one more opportunity in 2019. After 2007, the number of murders has “fluctuated” upwards to the upper parallel and has started dropping again. This is the profound implication of what I have referred to as the “work function”, which essentially extends Einstein’s idea of a photoelectric work function to problems outside physics.
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Appendix 2: Staten Island Demographics and Population
A fourth precinct, the Precinct No. 121, will be added shortly; see http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2013/01/staten_islands_new_police_p rec.html. A commanding officer has already been named (click here) This, of course, will change the homicides and populations relationships in the future if we consider four precincts instead of the current three for Staten Island.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Staten_Island According to the 2010 US Census, the population of the island was 468,730. It is the largest of the five NYC boroughs in terms of land area (50 square miles or 153 km2). The population figures, for the period considered in Appendix 1 is as follows and was obtained from the Wikipedia article. 2012 is estimated (click here) 1990: 378,977 2000: 443,726 2010: 468,730 2012: 470,728
The borough is 757% White (65.8% non-Hispanic white). The Causcasian population is most Italian and Irish. Blacks, in particular, are an insignificant portion of the Staten Island population. Chinese and Indian Americans are the main ethnic groups. There is also a large Sri Lankan immigrant population. These demographics are of interest in the quest for a Murder-Free SI.
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The following population data for the three (current) precincts was obtained from http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/crime-safety-report (just scroll on the map to get the population figures). Precinct 120: (Northernmost) 175,876 Precinct 122: (Middle) 194,822 Precinct 123: (Southern tip) 98,032 It is of interest to note that Precinct 120, which covers the northernmost part of the island (north of Staten Island Expressway) has the highest number of murders, year after year, but also has a lower population than Precinct 122, where lower murders have been reported. Precinct 123, with a lower population than precinct 122 also has lower murders, confirming the familiar homicide-population relation. Thus Staten Island seemly to both confirm and defy the conventional homicides-population relation, i.e., the higher the population, the higher the homicides. While this is generally true, the above subdivision of the crime neighborhoods reveals a different dynamic at work. As noted earlier, in the main text (concluding paragraphs after the story of Abel and Cain), most the murders in Staten Island seems to be murders committed by family members or acquaintances, such as husband killing a wife, or a son killing parents, or a young teenager being killed by his “school gang”. Such “gang members” are indeed “acquaintances” because the victims knew their killers. The following is the breakdown for the precincts, based on the reported values from CompStat for the various NYV precincts.
Year 1990 1993 1998 2001 2012 Staten Island Muders by Precinct Total Murders 120th 122nd 29 16 8 25 21 3 12 9 2 13 7 4 10 7 2 123rd 5 1 1 2 1
Note: For each year, the murders in 123rd, with the lower population are lower but the opposite is true for 120th and 122nd. Also, over the years, population went up in a given precinct but the trend from 1990 to 2012 is one of decreasing murders.
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Appendix 3: Homicides-Population Law: New Orleans
The following data for homicides in various New Orleans neighborhoods in 2012 (as of posted date of June 3, 2012) was obtained from one of the Internet crime blog forums http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/archive/index.php/t136088-p-64.html (click here). The data is reproduced in the table below after sorting by population for each murder count. The total murders equals 81 as of posted date.
Name of NOLA community Seventh Ward Little Woods Central City Behrman Mid-City St. Roch West Lake Forest Treme'/Lafitte Fairgrounds St. Claude Holygrove Desire Florida Area Holy Cross Bayou St. John Gert Town Broadmoor St. Thomas Read Blvd. East Dixon Algiers Point East Riverside St. Anthony Plum Orchard Lakeview Unknown Rate, y/x per 100 K 93.6 21.1 59.3 59.1 57.5 47.6 26.1 71.2 68.8 65.3 55.1 95.1 88.2 70.2 54.0 52.8 35.4 28.0 26.2 75.1 38.8 35.3 27.2 24.1 14.9 Population, y Murders, x
10,686 33,251 11,809 8,459 6,957 8,400 15,350 4,212 4,359 4,592 5,446 2,103 2,267 2,847 3,702 3,791 5,645 7,154 7,640 1,332 2,575 2,831 3,682 4,145 6,707
10 7 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
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If we consider the detailed list here, we see that the number of murders is the same (say 1, or 2, or 3, or 4) even with large changes in the population. Dixon with a population of 1332 had one murder and so did Lakeview with a population of 6707. Also, Lakeview had just one murder, which is lower than for many other neighborhoods with 2 or 3 murders.
Homicides (in 2012), y
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Figure 7: The homicides-population diagram for various New Orleans neighborhoods. The number of homicides for the years, in each area, as of the post data of June 3, 2012 is plotted here as a function of the population. The linear law y = hx + c is thus confirmed. The lowest slope h = 226.19 per 100,000 is more than 40 times the murder rate (5.125 per 100,000) for NYC taken as whole.
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In other words, if we consider very small populations, we will sometimes see what appears to be a violation of the upwards sloping positive linear relation (a positive slope), y = hx + c, relating homicides and population, as with the three precincts of Staten Island; see Figure 8. However, when we consider a very large number of such neighborhoods, taken together, and consider the overall pattern, we can again see the law y = hx + c. The linear law being discussed here in the context of a potentially murder-free Staten Island, is, therefore, a statistical law that is deduced as a result of a very large number of observations on communities with various populations.
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
Homicides (in 2012), y
Figure 8: The Homicides-Population diagram for Staten Island (population est. for July 1, 2012 is used). There were 10 murders in 2012, with precinct 123 with the smallest population reporting 1 murder, precinct 122 with a higher population reporting 2 murders and precinct 120 (lower population than precinct 122) reporting 7 murders. Data source: Click on individual precinct http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/crime_prevention/crime_statistics.shtml
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The breakdown of murders for Staten Island in 2012, as illustrated in Figure 8, is exactly analogous to the breakdown of NYC murders illustrated earlier in Figure 1 for the individual boroughs. We can imagine a series of “rays”, straight lines passing through the origin, with a slope equal to m = y/x, the murder rate, or we can impose a series parallels on to this diagram, with the general equation y = hx + c with h = m = y/x, the overall slope for Staten Island taken as a single entity. It is of interest to note in 2013 (as of June 16, 2013), Staten Island Precinct 122 has already reported 2 murders but Precinct 120 has reported only 1 murder and Precinct 123 has 0 murders. The evolution of the general law y = hx + c, described here by considering individual precinct (or communities, as in New Orleans, Louisiana, or commonly called NOLA) is similar to the evolution of the same type of a linear law when we consider baseball statistics (game-by-game logs, then monthly logs, seasonal stats and career stats) and all traffic fatalities at the level of individual counties, states, and then the nation as a whole; see reference list.
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1. Mayor Bloomberg’s Comparison of the Homicide Rates in Chicago, Detroit, and New York is Re-examined, Published June 15, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/147960590/MayorBloomberg%E2%80%99s-Comparison-of-the-Homicide-Rates-in-ChicagoDetroit-and-New-York-Is-Re-examined 2. News from the Blue Room, For Immediate Release, April 30, 2013, http://www.nyc.gov/portal/site/nycgov/menuitem.c0935b9a57bb4ef3daf 2f1c701c789a0/index.jsp?pageID=mayor_press_release&catID=1194&doc_ name=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nyc.gov%2Fhtml%2Fom%2Fhtml%2F2013 a%2Fpr151-13.html&cc=unused1978&rc=1194&ndi=1 “Last year, we had a
record low 419 murders. If instead we had had Washington, DC’s murder rate, nearly 1,200 New Yorkers would have been murdered last year instead of 419. If we had Chicago’s murder rate, more than 1,400 New Yorkers would have been murdered last year instead of 419. If we have Philadelphia’s murder rate, more than 1,700 New Yorkers would have been murdered last year instead of 419. If we had Baltimore’s, it would have been more than 2,900 murders last year. And if we had had Detroit’s murder rate, more than 4,500 New Yorkers would have been murdered last year instead of 419. That’s a factor of ten. “Not only are you saving all those lives by preventing those murders, you’re also keeping young people from going to jail and to prison.
2. Bronx Borough President’s Office http://bronxboropres.nyc.gov/pdf/bronx%20murder-rate-data-2013-0123.pdf Provides list of 2012 murders in 15 cities, including NYC and Bronx borough, and their population. 3. New York City http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City with population of each borough (July 2012 estimates) 4. USA: New York City Boroughs, http://www.citypopulation.de/php/usanewyorkcity.php Populations of all boroughs, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2012 5. If NYC’s Boroughs Were their Own Cities, http://www.nakedapartments.com/blog/population-nyc-borough/ 6. NYC Murder Statistics: Brooklyn the Bloodiest Borough, 60 Percent of Victims Black, And more, by Anthony M. DeStefano, April 8, 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/08/nyc-murder-statisticsbrooklyn-2012_n_3035372.html The percent of total murders for each borough given here is used for the analysis with total murders equals 419.
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7. Genesis IV: Cain and Abel, http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?s=O&utm_expid=134661135&search=Genesis+4&version=NIV 8. Murder Detroit: Mayor Dave Bing Releases 2012 Crime, Homicide Statistics, Jan 3, 2013, HuffPost Detroit, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/03/detroit-murders-2012bing_n_2402372.html 9. Useful Notes: New York City, http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/UsefulNotes/NewYorkCity?from =Main.NewYorkCity 10. Staten Island: An Economic Review October 2000, by H. Carl McCall, State Comptroller, Office of the state deputy comptroller for the City of New York, Report 4-2001, Homicides data 1990 to 1998, http://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/rpt401/rpt401.pdf 11. More Murder, Rape, Major Theft, Hate Crimes On Staten Island on Donovan’s Watch, by City & State, October 4, 2010, data for 2003 to 2009, http://www.cityandstateny.com/more-murder-rape-major-theft-hatecrimes-on-staten-island-on-donovans-watch/ 12. NYPD Compstat, Vol. 20, Number 23, Week of June 3 to June 9, 2013 Only 2001 and 2012 data is available with information for rest of 2000s. 13. State Island’s murder rate lowest since 2004, by John M. Annese, Staten Island Advance, December 24, 2012, Murders equals 9 as of Dec 24, with one week left in 2012, From Ref. , one murder occurred in the last week. http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/12/staten_islands_murder_r ate_is.html Murders equal 16 in 2011, but it is not clear if this is for whole year or through same week in December 2011. 14. Murder Rate Plunge, by Jamie Schram and Daniel Prendergast, New York Post, Dec 26, 2012. Staten Island 9 murders to date (Dec 16, 2012) a 44% drop from 16 in 2011. Again, not clear if 16 is for the full year 2011. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/murder_rate_plunge_7WtGRDrzq1 GMHswMR4CdBK . The final count for 2012 was 10. Still searching for 2011 final count stated without ambiguity; see Ref.  and . 15. Crime and Safety Analysis Delivers Surprises Across Five Boroughs, http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/crime-safety-report Found it! For 2011, Staten Island Precinct 120 (northern part) murders 13, population 175, 876, Precinct 122 (middle part), murders 2, population 194, 822, and Precinct 123 (southern part), murders 2, population 98,032; Total for all three precincts equals 17 murders in 2011; one must have occurred in the
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16. 17. 18. 19. 20.
very last week; see also http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-yorkcity/1467615-2011-murder-rate-precinct.html which provided me with the needed link. Murder in New York City, 2011, Police Department, http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/2 011_murder_in_nyc.pdf 515 for NYC and 3% for SI equals 16 murders Staten Island Dump, As of December 28, 2009, 16 murders in SI. http://statenislanddump.blogspot.com/2009/12/you-probably-wont-getmurdered-next.html The Safest and Most Dangerous Areas of New York City, by Charles Manley, Jan 6, 2011, http://voices.yahoo.com/the-safest-most-dangerousareas-york-city-7542578.html 16 murders in SI in 2009 (3.28 per 100K). Murder in New York City, 2010, Police Department, http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/2 010_murder_in_nyc.pdf Staten Island 3% of 536 for NYC. Summary of Vital Statistics 2000 for New York City, see page 14 for Staten Island homicides, 15, plus 4, plus 2 for the three precincts, total 21 homicides in 2000 http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/downloads/pdf/vs/2000sum.pdf Seven Major Felonies, New York Citywide Data, http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/ci tywide_historical_seven_major_felony_offenses_2000-2012.pdf The Measure of Madness: Murder and Suicide in Staten Island, by Cheryl Paradis, Psy.D, July 29, 2010, http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-measuremadness/201007/murder-and-suicide-in-staten-island Madness, Deinstitutionalization and Murder, by Clayton Cramer, May 17, 2012, The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies, http://www.fed-soc.org/publications/detail/madnessdeinstitutionalization-murder How New York Beat Crime, Scientific American, by Franklin E. Zimring, July 28, 2011, http://www.law.berkeley.edu/12135.htm NYPD Stats were captain cooked, The New York Post, by Philip Messing, Larry Celonia, and James Fanelli, February 7, 2010, http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/nypd_stats_were_captain_cooked_y kUWy6gXcPxYl87fGonQoO NYPD Cops Fudged Crime Stats in Compstat Model Program Now Used in 100s of US Cities, February 7, 2010, for OpEd News, by Rob Kall,
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http://bearmarketnews.blogspot.com/2010/02/nypd-cops-fudged-crimestats-in.html 27. New York, NY Law Suit, NYPD Officer Punished for Complaining about Quotas, February 24, 2012, http://www.vosizneias.com/101602/2012/02/23/new-york-ny-lawsuitnypd-officer-punished-for-complaining-about-quotas/ 28. COMPSTAT Critic Eli Silverman of John Jay College says city seems to be paying mind to stop-and-frisk outcry, by Kerry Wills, New York Daily News, October 12, 2012, http://www.nydailynews.com/newyork/bronx/compstat-critic-eli-silverman-sees-efforts-curb-stop-and-friskarticle-1.1180795 29. The NYPD’s CompStat: compare statistics or compose statistics, International Journal of Police Science and Management, by John A. Eterno† and Eli B. Silverman
†(Corresponding author) Department of Criminal Justice, Molloy College, 1000 Hempstead Avenue, PO Box 5002, New York, NY 11571-5002, USA. Tel:+1 1516 678 5000 ext. 6135; Fax: +1 516 256 2289; email firstname.lastname@example.org ‡John Jay College of Criminal Justice, 899 Tenth Avenue, New York, NY 10019, USA. Tel: 845 357 0685; email: Estcompany@optonline.net
29. 30 Members and Associates of Two Staten Island-Based Violent Gangs Charged with Crack Cocaine Distribution and Firearms Violations, Including Six Shootings, Feb 25, without year,
30. Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts, by Richard A. Oppel, May 23, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/us/24crime.html
References to Related Articles on Various Topics
The two Bibliography lists include detailed links to articles on various related topics with only a few being listed here. 1. Bibliography - I, Articles on Extension of Planck’s Ideas and Einstein’s Ideas beyond physics, Compiled on April 16, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136492067/Bibliography-Articles-on-theExtension-of-Planck-s-Ideas-and-Einstein-s-Ideas-on-Energy-Quantum-totopics-Outside-Physics-by-V-Laxmanan
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2. Bibliography - II, Articles on Extension of Planck’s Ideas and Einstein’s Ideas beyond physics, Compiled on June 14, 2013, Published on June 15, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/147955814/Bibliography-II-of-VLaxmanan-Articles-on-the-Extension-of-Planck%E2%80%99s-andEinstein%E2%80%99s-Ideas-Beyond-Physics-with-Examples-from-theObservations-on-Finan 3. Babe Ruth’s 1923 Batting Statistics and Einstein’s Work Function, Published April 17, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136489156/BabeRuth-s-1923-Batting-Statistics-and-Einstein-s-Work-Function 4. Babe Ruth Batting Statistics and Einstein’s Work Function, To be Published April 17, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136556738/BabeRuth-Batting-Statistics-and-Einstein-s-Work-Function 5. Trust Me, the Financial World will Change Forever if Wall Street Starts Analyzing Financial Data like we do Baseball Stats, Published May 26, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/143781795/Trust-Me-the-FinancialWorld-will-change-forever-if-Wall-Street-starts-analyzing-financial-datalike-we-do-baseball-stats-Miguel-Cabrera 6. What is Wrong with Ratio Analysis? Baseball Offers an Interesting Example with Wide Applications, Published May 31, 2013. http://www.scribd.com/doc/144798463/What-is-Wrong-With-RatioAnalysis-Baseball-Offers-an-Interesting-Example-with-Wider-Applications 7. Is Miguel Cabrera on Pace to Break Hack Wilson’s Single-Season RBI Record?, Published May 28, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/144083838/Is-Miguel-Cabrera-on-Pace-toBreak-Hack-Wilson-s-Single-Season-RBI-Record-YES-Can-I-Changed-MyMind-on-This-Read-On-Now 8. Fundamental Concepts in Data Analysis, Published May 29, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/144351498/Fundamental-Concepts-in-DataAnalysis
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Physics References on Einstein’s Photoelectric law
1. On Cathode Rays, Nobel Lecture, May 28, 1906, by Philip Lenard, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1905/lenardlecture.pdf The puzzling aspects of Lenard’s findings in photoelectricity are explained by Einstein’s photoelectric law (specifically, the cut-off frequency which also means a lack of dependence on the intensity of light radiation) and are also discussed very nicely by Millikan. Lenard mentions Hertz’s discovery of the effect of ultraviolet light on metals ((photoelectric effect; curious spark) on page 121 of his Nobel lecture. Earlier, he also states on page 107 also that he was a laboratory assistant to Hertz. Lenard mentions lack of dependence on the intensity of the radiation (ultraviolet) on page 123. 2. On a heuristic point of view about the creation and conversion of light, by A. Einstein, 1905, Einstein’s original paper which showed light can be viewed as particles with fixed energy quanta,
3. On a heuristic point of view concerning the production and transformation of light, Paper 5, in Einstein’s Miraculous Year: Five Papers that changed the face of physics, Princeton Univ. Press (1998). http://press.princeton.edu/einstein/materials/light_quanta.pdf 4. Einstein’s Quanta, Entropy, and the Photoelectric Effect, by Dwight E. Neuenschwander, Excellent discussion about how Einstein arrives at his conception of light quanta from the property called entropy possessed by radiation in the form light,
5. Einstein’s Photoelectric Equation and Contact Electromotive Force, by R. A. Millikan (click here), Phys. Rev., Vol. VII, No. 1 (1916), Second Series, pp. 18-32. In this first paper, published in 1916, Millikan provides only two data points (V0 and f values) for the experiments with lithium metal. 6. A Direct Photoelectric determination of the Planck’s “h”, by Robert A Millikan, (click here) Phys. Rev. Vol. VII No. 3 (1916), Second Series, pp. 355-390 http://mapageweb.umontreal.ca/leonelli/PHY3320/millikan.pdf
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10. 11. 12.
More detailed experiments with lithium (5 data points) and sodium (6 data points) are presented in this second paper, also published in 1916. The electron and light quant from experimental point of view, May 23, 1924, Nobel Lecture, by Robert Millikan, see Figure 4 on page 63, for experiments with sodium. The straight line graph for photoelectric experiments confirms Einstein’s law. The slope of the graph gives the universal Planck constant “h”, one of the fundamental constants of nature. http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1923/millika n-lecture.pdf The Photoelectric Effect, by M. Brandl, Project PhysNet, http://www.ifsc.usp.br/~lavfis/BancoApostilasImagens/ApEfFotoeletrico/ The%20Photoelectric%20Effect%20-%20m213.pdf See sketch on page 5 showing parallel lines (K-f graph) for sodium and potassium. Focus: Centennial Focus, Millikan’s Measurement of the Planck constant, Phys. Rev. Focus 3, 23 (1999), April 22, 1999, by Gerald Holton, http://physics.aps.org/story/v3/st23 The Millikan experiment to verify the Photoelectric relationship, http://tap.iop.org/atoms/quantum/502/file_47016.pdf Photoelectric Effect, http://physics.tutorvista.com/modernphysics/photoelectric-effect.html Theoretical concepts in physics, by M. S. Longair, Cambridge University Press (1984). http://www.amazon.com/Theoretical-Concepts-PhysicsAlternative-Reasoning/dp/052152878X Chapters 9 to 15 (case studies IV and V) and also chapters under Case Study II (Maxwell equations and electromagnetism) are highly recommended and cover the Planck and Einstein laws which are actually founded upon Maxwell’s work. Quantum Mechanics, Heisenberg and Einstein (1925-1927), http://www.aip.org/history/heisenberg/p07c.htm How Einstein Himself Derives the World’s Most Famous Equation, E = mc2, Published June 8, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/146483302/How-Einstein-Himself-Derivesthe-World-Most-Famous-Equation
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About the author V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.
The author obtained his Bachelor’s degree (B. E.) in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Poona and his Master’s degree (M. E.), also in Mechanical Engineering, from the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, followed by a Master’s (S. M.) and Doctoral (Sc. D.) degrees in Materials Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. He then spent his entire professional career at leading US research institutions (MIT, Allied Chemical Corporate R & D, now part of Honeywell, NASA, Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), and General Motors Research and Development Center in Warren, MI). He holds four patents in materials processing, has co-authored two books and published several scientific papers in leading peer-reviewed international journals. His expertise includes developing simple mathematical models to explain the behavior of complex systems. While at NASA and CWRU, he was responsible for developing material processing experiments to be performed aboard the space shuttle and developed a simple mathematical model to explain the growth Christmas-tree, or snowflake, like structures (called dendrites) widely observed in many types of liquid-to-solid phase transformations (e.g., freezing of all commercial metals and alloys, freezing of water, and, yes, production of snowflakes!). This led to a simple model to explain the growth of dendritic structures in both the ground-based experiments and in the space shuttle experiments. More recently, he has been interested in the analysis of the large volumes of data from financial and economic systems and has developed what may be called the Quantum Business Model (QBM). This extends (to financial and economic systems) the mathematical arguments used by Max Planck to develop quantum physics using the analogy Energy = Money, i.e., energy in physics is like money in economics. Einstein applied Planck’s ideas to describe the photoelectric effect (by treating light as being composed of particles called photons, each with the fixed quantum of energy conceived by Planck). The mathematical law deduced by Planck, referred to here as the generalized power-exponential law, might
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actually have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first conceived. Einstein’s photoelectric law is a simple linear law and was deduced from Planck’s non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and Newton. Finally, during my professional career, I also twice had the opportunity and great honor to make presentations to two Nobel laureates: first at NASA to Prof. Robert Schrieffer (1972 Physics Nobel Prize), who was the Chairman of the Schrieffer Committee appointed to review NASA’s space flight experiments (following the loss of the space shuttle Challenger on January 28, 1986) and second at GM Research Labs to Prof. Robert Solow (1987 Nobel Prize in economics), who was Chairman of Corporate Research Review Committee, appointed by GM corporate management.
Cover page of AirTran 2000 Annual Report
Can you see that plane flying above the tall tree tops that make a nearly perfect circle? It requires a great deal of imagination to see and to photograph it.
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