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Non-agricultural commodities

Crude oil fundamentals (‘000 barrels/day unless specified)

2009
2008

2007

2006

World
Oil production
79948
81820
81443
81497
Oil consumption
84077
84455
84878
83797
Refinery capacity
90662
88627
87794
86542
Refinery throughput
73512
75179
75432
74707
Proven oil reserves (‘000 mn barrels)
1333
1258
1261
1241
Reserves from Canadian oil sands (‘000 mn barrels)
143
143
151
152
Department of Energy US, inventory data (mn barrels)
327
319
290
320

OPEC
Oil production
33076
36705
35714
36007
Proven oil reserves (‘000 mn barrels)
1029
956
957
940

OECD
Oil production
18390
18400
19148
19458
Oil consumption
45327
47303
48830
49274
Refinery capacity
45197
45271
45145
44916
Refinery throughput
37046
38787
39578
40072
Proven oil reserves (‘000 mn barrels)
91
89
90
90

India
Oil production
754
766
770
762
Oil consumption
3183
2882
2748
2580
Refinery capacity
3574
2992
2983
2872
Proven oil reserves (‘000 mn barrels)
6
6
6
6
Indian imports
2928
2557
2500
2291

Average daily volatility (MCX spot prices)
2.3%
2.8%
1.6%
1.7%

Freight rate (Worldscale points)*
60
62.5
275
57.5
Note: * Dirty VLCC Arabian Gulf to Japan Tanker Rate
Source: BP statistical review 2010, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, EIA, MCX.

World marketed energy consumption by country grouping - Outlook 2015 (Quadrillion BTU)
Region Forecast release year

OECD
North America
Europe
Asia
Non-OECD
Europe & Eurasia
Asia
Middle East
Africa
Central & South America
Total World

2010
246
124.3
82
39.7
297.5
52.4
159.3
32.9
20.8
32.1
543.5

2009
252.4
125.9
84.8
41.8
299.1
57.6
163.2
30.3
17.7
30.3
551.5

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Source: Energy Information Administration

2008
260.5
132.3
86.5
41.4
302.5
59.5
164.2
29.5
18.9
30.5
563

2005
81089
83065
85565
74093
1220
164
322

35736
931

19861
49490
44692
40269
82

738
2569
2558
6
2043
2.0%
128

Economic parameters impacting Crude oil prices

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

(Mn barrels)
US crude oil stocks (excluding SPR stocks)
US crude oil stocks in SPR
US gasoline inventories
US distillate inventories

325.8
701.8
208.1
146.0

286.1
696.9
207.8
133.9

312.3
688.6
209.5
143.7

323.7
684.5
204.3
136.0

325.1
726.6
216.0
164.7

Hurricance activity - North Atlantic Ocean
Dates active
May 28 -
May 30 -
May 9 -
June 10 -

Nov - 10
Nov - 10
Dec - 13
Oct - 02
Total cyclones recorded
11
17
17
10
Total landfalls
4
33
16
7
Approximate damage (in US$ billion)
0.077
48
3
0.5
Deaths
6
855
394
7

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity (mbpd)
4.33
1.49
2.07
1.42
Days of supply of OECD commercial oil stocks
58
57
52
53
US crude oil wells drilled (exploratory and development)*
13255
17347
13574
13291

July 08, 05 Jan 06, 06
31
29
130
3865
1
49
10699

Real GDP (% change)
US
-2.5
1.1
2
2.9
Japan
-5.4
-0.3
1.9
2.8
Eurozone
-4.0
1
2.3
2.6
China
8.7
9
11.5
11.1
India
5.5
7.3
8.9
9.7
OECD
-3.4
1
2.6
3.2

3.1
2.4
1.4
10.4
9
2.7

Consumer Price inflation (% change)
US
0.0
1
2.5
2.7
Japan
-1.7
0.5
1.4
0.3
Eurozone
0.5
1
3
2.2
China
0.8
3
5.9
2
India
7.5
5
7
6.7
OECD
0.1
1
3
2.2

3.4
0.3
2.2
1.4
5.3
2.1

Industrial Output (YoY % change)
US
-2.0
-8.9
1.7
1.5
Japan
5.3
-20.7
1.5
5.4
Eurozone
-6.8
-12.2
1.4
5.3
China
11.0
5.7
17.4
14.7
India
11.7
-0.2
8
13.4

2.9
3.4
2.5
16.5
5.7

Interest rates (%)
US (Fed funds target)
0.00 - 0.25 
0.25
4.25
5.25
Japan (12 month T-Bills)
0.13
0.249
0.581
0.618
Eurozone (refinance rates)
1
2.5
4
3.5
China (lending rate )
5.31
5.31
7.47
6.12
India (repo rate )
4.75
6.5
7.75
7.25

4.25
0.066
2.25
5.58
6.25

Money Supply ( YoY % change)
US
3.7
9.6
5.6
5.4
Japan
2.2
0.7
0.7
-0.6
Eurozone
-0.3
7.5
11.6
9.9
China
27.58
17.82
16.72
16.9
India
17.2
19.6
22.84
19.33

4.1
0.3
7.4
17.6
17.79

Equity Index (points) – Year End
US (Dow Jones)
10428
8776
13265
12463
India (Sensex)
17464
9647
20287
13787

10718
9398

OECD Indicators
OECD Total monetary aggr. & comp. broad money index
135.8
127.3
116.9
107.6
OECD Total purchasing power index manufacturing
N/A
113.83
106.9
103.7
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups total energy IPB
114.4
127.8
113.7
109.3

US ISM manufacturing index
54.9
32.9
49.1
52.2
US auto sales (YoY % change)
15.1%
-35.6%
-2.9%
-3.6%
US pending home sales (YoY % change )
9.2
5.7
-23.9
-6.3

100
100
100
54.9
-3.7%
-6.3

Note: SPR - Strategic Petroleum Reserve, mbpd - million barrels per day, *Number
194 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

Source: EIA, BP stats, CPM Gold Yearbook, IMF, OECD, World Bank, BSE, Dow Jones

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 195

00 59.66 72.63 69.85 80.58 50.33 67.00 67.02 49.85 59.69 77.98 66.48 59.79 73.86 64.00 73.17 114.42 140.35 73.53 67.24 62.70 66.88 66.89 61.16 78.12 46.34 40.26 74.39 59.91 61.11 79.55 88.24 68.70 32.98 69.76 100.84 84.58 67.43 68.7 48.43 57.59 52.54 46.12 91.32 68.02 70.21 82.24 86.05 61. ICE.91 69.06 78.60 101.30 39.69 74.14 67.47 88.04 57.45 78.79 95.30 50.61 75.10 92.00 58.50 83.50 123.23 65.89 60.11 85.59 46.87 71.82 73.24 77.35 57.00 59.61 55.66 44.50 46.15 62.12 73.48 67.96 69.13 58.00 48.10 61.81 100.68 61.94 60.65 68.33 67.48 68.94 116.16 44.74 US dollar index Monthly average 80.85 58.23 58.49 64.92 64.94 60.80 69.7 77.8 49.76 65.80 70.79 67.02 65.3 65.36 77.15 81.67 56.71 86.72 47.63 114.06 66.77 50.01 65.08 68.00 64.63 44.25 71.78 68.63 79.37 76.90 54.76 77.53 79.53 78.32 70.92 61.05 132.48 70.79 58.49 78.05 71.05 58.93 46.8 54.35 78.97 74.67 77.73 39.73 44.64 115.27 143.00 127.26 60.00 70.40 73.38 72.25 75.54 62.36 100.00 50.82 72.22 48.29 74.15 63.69 88.41 72.79 72.65 71.81 47.38 66.25 72.30 90.60 54.94 70.60 147.90 59. Exchanges’ websites.92 69.47 75.74 60.04 78.69 76.20 47.25 83.27 98.20 61.62 71.88 45.14 80.41 73.93 69.74 90.22 112.13 49.59 71.64 49.81 80.43 43.64 133.30 99.38 66.89 60.92 99.77 99.52 64.25 61.06 140.9 65.66 77.68 64.85 51.98 88.28 71.40 76.32 60.88 63.49 43.10 58.61 82.99 58.49 65.42 121.56 87.95 49.61 110.40 59.76 79.10 67.7 69.66 78.91 105.84 130.18 81.29 95.WTI Monthly Open High Low Close Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Dec-06 Nov-06 Oct-06 Sep-06 Aug-06 Jul-06 Jun-06 May-06 Apr-06 Mar-06 Feb-06 Jan-06 Dec-05 Nov-05 Oct-05 Sep-05 Aug-05 Jul-05 Jun-05 May-05 Apr-05 3680 3374 3720 3570 3684 3349 3432 3279 3354 3130 2542 2485 2250 2061 2015 2738 3225 4746 5139 5277 6061 5380 4613 4040 4060 3571 3772 3551 3699 3238 3017 3140 2863 2587 2736 2920 2765 2582 2729 2811 2616 2854 3267 3468 3398 3299 3265 2952 2831 2970 2842 2614 2708 2899 2995 2609 2436 2248 2262 2442 3783 3727 3810 3735 3804 3796 3530 3648 3440 3508 3135 2698 2758 2284 2452 2738 3419 4799 5179 5450 6333 6174 5822 4785 4485 4083 3935 3847 3915 3698 3307 3168 3145 2869 2736 2947 2957 2790 2732 2883 2828 2854 3298 3605 3703 3404 3382 3418 2986 3033 3048 2844 2789 2925 3043 3106 2673 2614 2345 2474 3599 3275 3372 3226 3412 3218 3146 3252 2879 3072 2542 2375 2071 1649 1626 1751 2498 3167 4251 4745 5106 5212 4476 3984 3961 3409 3395 3401 3510 3090 3008 2818 2821 2587 2492 2671 2653 2527 2302 2672 2605 2591 2744 3217 3362 3130 3081 2933 2735 2596 2797 2613 2587 2684 2750 2609 2436 2248 2104 2185 3751 3669 3378 3727 3550 3638 3337 3431 3271 3344 3124 2555 2481 2259 2058 1996 2746 3207 4744 5123 5278 6078 5403 4628 4027 4058 3559 3763 3556 3687 3247 3019 3137 2863 2582 2744 2930 2755 2563 2730 2816 2611 2882 3256 3460 3395 3284 3239 2939 2603 2974 2744 2609 2714 2891 2982 2606 2433 2244 2209 MCX spot prices NYMEX futures prices (USD/bbl) .66 70.55 60.76 66.70 59.15 74.40 59.33 44.28 59.76 59.86 48.45 79.98 39.26 59.38 74.02 43.40 48.73 62.00 81.92 86.89 79.44 71.00 71.21 53.28 84.35 77.95 83.88 68.02 88.65 71.27 67.04 74.78 79.37 89.21 67.04 57.WTI Monthly average 81.35 45.52 50.63 84.25 84.11 85.51 111.31 120.80 60.90 55.38 92.47 95.26 72.77 102.63 46.08 51.37 55.75 60.04 57.57 101.35 41.36 48.25 50.34 41.46 46.37 84.94 42.41 67.96 67.83 90.75 43.77 40.55 59.27 56.70 50.62 65.42 65.44 39.41 58.70 68.35 55.40 45.WTI ICE Brent crude oil futures prices (USD/bbl) (Rs/bbl) .93 78.86 89.64 53.35 113.08 140.02 77.21 93.63 43.10 50.60 59.40 74.33 85.38 133.72 75.37 39.83 69.47 47.37 55.65 45. PPAC 196 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 197 .75 60.15 73.82 43.92 89.00 128.91 72.36 39.03 62.52 82.93 125.90 59.75 79.50 72.28 55.80 61.14 117.90 78.99 40.Non-agricultural commodities Crude oil prices MCX futures prices (Rs/bbl) .06 69.52 68.31 115.85 55.25 54.14 46.49 63.61 63.7 65.96 47.66 45.18 73.32 108.35 82.59 69.15 44.77 83.07 63.32 98.81 113.07 69.03 44.31 51.26 41.01 58.69 71.63 91.33 45.29 66.12 69.98 139.00 75.05 63.67 135.05 123.28 77.19 78.50 143.77 63.91 135.54 87.70 59.61 85.03 61.52 87.99 75.72 48.91 70.82 88.76 85.10 65.69 76.37 89.00 86.64 64.33 74.96 44.26 82.20 60.63 91.95 60.99 87.06 60.81 56.91 49.93 70.23 49.93 111.06 45.95 53.82 70.28 62.26 71.30 69.63 65.96 58.16 75.40 73.02 40.15 67.25 57.62 69.23 46.90 67.28 83.55 98.94 82.61 103.71 65.37 112.55 75.51 83.82 40.84 91.05 67.05 72.30 70.47 50.78 111.85 62.80 57.83 85.72 54.07 67.46 124.45 66.21 70.41 44.98 62.18 127.75 57.87 71.83 127.60 36.79 56.95 50.83 39.65 91.71 94.42 75.33 44.89 124.44 127.87 96.56 51.65 86.05 88.06 43.36 94.9 64.69 61.02 101.97 72.44 57.62 49.10 63.89 57.86 56.50 100.02 73.22 43.85 58.83 83.74 100.93 71.71 80.82 42.45 69.95 71.76 59.36 74.65 68.21 72.50 94.50 95.35 67.WTI Open High Low Close Open High Low Close Monthly average 3697 3529 3615 3484 3637 3530 3381 3436 3130 3329 2874 2556 2468 1955 2079 2100 2853 3741 4741 5021 5774 5725 5261 4490 4257 3763 3671 3605 3750 3385 3197 2963 2986 2742 2597 2712 2659 2613 2430 2776 2635 2675 2973 3406 3455 3263 3211 3116 2787 2741 2891 2704 2672 2806 2880 2818 2558 2453 2165 2329 79.39 48.82 78.15 41.96 46.62 59.98 77.36 65.77 78.50 51. RBI.09 US spot prices (USD/bbl) .96 Monthly international prices of Indian crude basket (USD/bbl) RBI rate USD/INR 78.58 90.5 65.58 83.65 71.57 63.92 71.27 77.73 51.85 88.74 41.42 98.75 57.85 73.18 61.59 72.00 69.72 86.48 60.26 90.45 78.49 78.85 63.90 62.65 63.85 53.56 42.45 63.14 70.43 67.34 120.04 67.12 58.60 62.95 48.94 147.51 40.78 57.32 64.97 49.09 97.94 79.65 86.41 68.99 96.75 74.00 75.53 81.89 66.72 77.92 67.63 53.17 84.85 62.63 61.02 73.46 77.68 44.25 61.40 72.26 88.32 59.49 52.88 121.31 56.60 59.05 53.05 55.15 66.14 62.91 61.63 60.51 70.58 101.80 103.2 76 72.64 78.30 100.24 Source: MCX.07 76.43 61.07 84.12 96.05 77.66 66.83 48.64 72.70 70.90 79.91 80.58 68.20 49.36 96.14 80.11 85.76 65.44 33.46 101.39 73.10 60.61 50.85 47.95 80.76 41.84 42.25 71.77 62.98 64.05 65.15 73.24 68.10 56.48 44.81 52.05 65.76 92.62 67.08 54.78 48.09 119.12 49.00 76.55 60.42 40.05 100.09 62.45 115.26 57.51 56.86 117.57 56.29 76.61 69.56 46.2 69.48 50.29 71.13 40.59 43.39 49.39 68.34 56.59 53.20 68.55 32.56 127.56 108.98 91.02 59.54 43.01 52.72 120.82 57.51 56.56 69.91 85.70 71.11 66.13 58.87 61.55 64.75 95.47 129.95 44.43 45.73 59.14 61.40 59.62 105.22 68.77 69.06 64.94 70.13 89.37 45.90 110.54 64.85 45.61 50.95 65.01 81.76 66.40 69.98 55.90 54.64 45.37 101.02 71.42 52.65 76.06 82.79 75.77 76.17 77.69 68.55 86.31 53.78 42.44 39.87 80.40 70.78 54.10 51.63 66.28 78.26 70.92 43.40 60.80 64.40 60.66 74.47 46.17 72.47 54.42 75.30 99.

ICE.Non-agricultural commodities Crude Oil Production 2009 Crude oil trading activity MCX (WTI crude oil) NYMEX (WTI crude oil) ICE (Brent crude oil) Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Russian Federation 13% Saudi Arabia 12% Others 56% USA 9% Iran 5% China 5% Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 Crude Oil Consumption 2009 USA 22% China Others 10% 56% Japan 5% India Russian Federation 4% Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 3% Crude Oil (WTI) prices in USD & Euro and Dollar Index 180 Price/bbl Dollar Index (RHS) 160 165 Crude oil WTI Prices in USD 140 Crude Oil WTI prices in EURO 150 120 135 100 120 80 105 60 90 40 Mar 10 Mar 09 Mar 08 Mar 07 Mar 06 Mar 05 Mar 04 Mar 03 Mar 02 Mar 01 Mar 00 Mar 99 Mar 89 Mar 97 Mar 96 Mar 95 Mar 94 Mar 93 Mar 92 Mar 91 Mar 90 Mar 89 60 Mar 88 0 Mar 87 75 Mar 86 20 Mar 85 937633 857981 776550 728331 698620 700787 684180 676497 707378 689091 721844 696396 677979 662850 637728 595295 565654 549842 525080 550431 563588 526467 562258 556070 594544 583335 541479 537359 578509 623051 647298 596662 645675 662755 627008 657327 686982 584786 611593 548654 588243 577446 487653 478985 347628 455114 440309 464857 433550 399238 384829 390615 396554 336205 337952 355318 357296 355842 326814 290932 Mar 84 Mar-10 2681569 16317 13297737 1310328 8984535 Feb-10 2572046 14120 12771829 1274007 7796458 Jan-10 2063651 25272 10894229 1319629 6837761 Dec-09 2645063 15303 11906196 1193065 6000904 Nov-09 2968273 19625 11600195 1198406 6255219 Oct-09 3066007 16991 13103116 1243953 6600386 Sep-09 2867974 25601 11462233 1190853 6302192 Aug-09 3364276 17364 11823362 1162798 5333905 Jul-09 4122330 14071 11923549 1190714 6865215 Jun-09 3430757 15406 11367082 1159868 5843451 May-09 3389258 12740 9939223 1163773 5280318 Apr-09 3650692 17895 10106308 1167380 5102336 Mar-09 4379692 20786 11340347 1148687 6158270 Feb-09 3434198 23224 11411434 1191502 5495062 Jan-09 3774301 18972 11369073 1243967 6536771 Dec-08 3117157 28141 9910170 1189046 5107284 Nov-08 1883187 16189 8662209 1141336 5336546 Oct-08 1598334 11287 11638267 1108362 6417718 Sep-08 1900925 10052 12045565 1092411 5948919 Aug-08 1485585 10346 10589479 1182917 5044833 Jul-08 1877485 11922 11321293 1267200 5472918 Jun-08 1968091 15496 12452986 1285567 5778596 May-08 1745803 16121 13439173 1368551 6683008 Apr-08 1216976 20935 11065563 1366639 5682939 Mar-08 1251741 12317 12576859 1396612 5663793 Feb-08 1188877 19620 10100249 1445328 5421638 Jan-08 1272840 11188 10811520 1395278 5619214 Dec-07 1436288 12814 8694012 1361258 4035606 Nov-07 1388335 11593 11307522 1404579 5383219 Oct-07 1392318 23019 12389575 1468958 5575011 Sep-07 1003894 19668 10670194 1420823 4989287 Aug-07 1378084 15400 10646980 1466129 4980801 Jul-07 1175924 22988 9655899 1521237 5114738 Jun-07 1014159 21143 9862305 1474661 4912169 May-07 933112 11576 9486584 1396811 5427377 Apr-07 922023 11020 9286616 1329295 4296685 Mar-07 1220169 18463 10068962 1354924 5179846 Feb-07 1040775 10199 9092076 1286745 4290867 Jan-07 1033732 11230 10367198 1294571 5454265 Dec-06 586612 17186 6801761 1190543 3329011 Nov-06 629447 18622 7446062 1214068 4319084 Oct-06 610963 13743 7492383 1158612 4608117 Sep-06 429136 8435 6067095 1167337 3875739 Aug-06 243508 11344 5408568 1166144 4000533 Jul-06 175149 3022 4496916 1101492 3680839 Jun-06 129799 3164 5129950 1027066 3741729 May-06 200439 8127 5854647 1028165 3513993 Apr-06 234414 8996 5280355 1057804 2928362 Mar-06 474103 13634 5931697 962657 3742399 Feb-06 425591 11418 5588122 941616 3052743 Jan-06 327377 8263 5475525 951012 3363144 Dec-05 392588 8447 4179866 816246 2542491 Nov-05 540111 28385 4482251 849986 2797075 Oct-05 723130 19795 5013086 815525 2778698 Sep-05 933607 17623 5241849 871903 2900312 Aug-05 1019288 29019 6086342 909349 3173053 Jul-05 763996 30632 4627294 816113 2621453 Jun-05 417471 25166 5315872 788730 2805214 May-05 183038 5057 5040218 783449 2427391 Apr-05 117502 3838 5396965 801863 2066471 Note: Vol and OI in lots. Mar 83 Month Source: NYMEX. US Federal Reserve Source: Exchanges’ websites 198 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 199 . Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month. Cumulative open interest in all contracts at the month-end.