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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| June 21, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| June 21, 2013

Highlights
World market rout continues as Asian equities trade in the red. Indian Rupee touched an all time low of 59.975 in yesterday’s trade. th US Unemployment Claims increased to 354,000 for w/e 14 June. German Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7-mark in current month. UK’s Retail Sales rose by 2.1 percent in the month of May. The rout that began on Wednesday's late trade has continued thereafter. Asian equities have opened in the red with Nikkei and Hang Seng are trading lower by around 1 percent. China's central bank infused liquidity of 50 billion yuan ($8.2 billion) in the markets yesterday as a cash crunch drove money market rates to record highs. US Unemployment Claims increased by 18,000 to 354,000 for the week ending 14th June as against a rise of 336,000 in prior week. Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell marginally to 52.2mark in June from 52.3-level in last month. Existing Home Sales was at 5.18 million in May as compared to 4.97 million a month ago. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index gained to 12.5-level in June with respect to -5.2mark in May.

Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July’13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug’13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July’13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5655.9 18719.3 14758.32 1588.2 15549.2 1959.2 58497.8 13014.6 95.40 1285.90 19.82 6773.00 102.09 Prev. day -2.9 -2.7 -2.3 -2.5 -3.1 -1.5 0.2 -1.7 -2.9 -6.4 -8.3 -2.9 0.0

as on June 20, 2013 WoW -0.8 -0.6 -2.8 -2.9 -3.5 4.1 16.0 -0.1 -1.3 -7.3 -8.2 -4.1 3.4 MoM -7.5 -6.9 -3.5 -4.7 -9.4 -0.5 3.7 -9.2 1.2 -7.3 -11.9 -13.7 -3.0 YoY 10.8 2.4 15.1 17.1 13.1 2.0 5.4 47.5 16.6 -20.4 -30.2 -7.6 -0.4

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trading session as the announcement by the Federal Reserve to pullback its stimulus spending provided strong support to the currency. Treasury yields in the US markets increased sharply to a 22-year high thus supporting gains in the DX. The DX touched an intra-day high of 82.32 and closed at 82.10 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June’13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.10 59.57 59.79 59.81 Prev. day 0.6 -1.5 1.65 1.69 WoW 1.7 -2.7 2.90 2.93

as on June 20, 2013 MoM -2.0 -7.5 8.33 8.36 YoY 3.3 -5.6 6.36 6.41

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated 1.5 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on account concerns over the current account deficit of the country coupled with strength in the DX. Further, announcement by the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction in its stimulus measures exerted downside on the currency. Additionally, weak global and domestic markets acted as a negative factor. The Reserve Bank of India intervened at around 59.90 levels in order to provide respite to the fall in the Rupee, but the currency continued to depreciate. Rupee touched an all time low of 59.975 and closed at 59.57 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.2,892.40 crores ($490.33 million) as on 20th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.80,312.70 crores ($14,862.60 million) till 20 June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect the Rupee to weaken on account of choppy global and domestic markets. Strength in the DX as a result of Fed’s comments will continue to exert downside pressure on the currency.

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for June 21, 2013 Support 59.60/59.50 Resistance 60.10/60.30

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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| June 21, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency. Favorable data from the Euro Zone also couldn’t provide much of relief to the fall in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3161 and closed at 1.3218 against the dollar on Thursday. German Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.3 percent in May as against a fall of 0.2 percent in April. French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to 48.3-mark in June from rise of 46.4-level in May. German Flash Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.7 points to 48.7-mark in June with respect to 49.4-level in last month European Flash Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 points to 48.7-mark in June from 48.3-level in May. European Consumer Confidence was at -19-mark in May with respect to -22-level a month earlier. Outlook In today’s session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of strength in the DX and uncertainty in the global financial markets due to Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for June 21, 2013 Support 78.60/78.40 Resistance 79.10/79.30

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June ’13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3218 78.87 78.9 Prev. day -0.6 -0.2 0.20

as on June 20, 2013 WoW -1.2 -2.1 1.94 MoM 2.4 -10.4 11.13 YoY 5.4 -12.3 10.66

78.9

0.16

1.92

12.67

10.62

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day 0.15 1.72 0.55

as on June 20, 2013

WoW -1.3 1.45 1.62

MoM 2.3 9.88 10.15

YoY -0.5 4.79 4.61

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of favorable retail sales data from the country. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Additionally, a stronger DX acted as a negative factor for the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5517 and closed at 1.55508 against dollar on Thursday. UK’s Retail Sales rose by 2.1 percent in May as against a decline of 1.1 percent in April. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations was at -18-mark in June from earlier fall of 20-level in May. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global markets will add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 21, 2013 Support 92.20/92.0 Resistance 92.55/92.70

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June’13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June ’13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5508 92.421 92.42

92.38

0.51

1.61

10.10

4.56

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| June 21, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated 0.8 percent in the yesterday’s trading session. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 98.28 and closed at 97.27 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, taking cues from choppy global markets. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 21, 2013 Support 60.90/60.70 Resistance 61.30/61.45 Last 97.27 0.6141 61.05 60.98 Prev day 0.8 1.04 -1.19 -1.31 as on June 20, 2013 WoW 2.0 1.19 -1.05 -1.17 MoM -5.1 13.85 13.27 13.13 YoY 21.2 -13.14 -14.13 -14.24

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June’13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June’13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 21, 2013
Indicator BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Current Account Public Sector Net Borrowing ECOFIN Meetings Country Japan Euro UK Euro Time (IST) 12:05pm 1:30pm 2:00pm All Day Actual Forecast 15.1B 12.7B Previous 25.9B 8.0B Impact High Medium Medium Medium

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