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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Commodity Tax from July
The ministry of finance today notified the Commodity Transaction Tax and Rules, effective July 1. It had been proposed in the Union budget and is to apply to all non- agricultural commodities traded on futures exchanges. All processed agri commodities, such as oils and sugar will be considered non- agri commodities for the purpose of the tax. The levy will attract `10 on every `100,000 of business on the exchange by the seller. Almond, barley, cardamom, castor seed, chana, copra, coriander, cotton, cotton seed oilcake, guar seed, isabgul seed, cumin seed, kapas, maize feed, pepper, potato, mustard seed, raw jut, red chilli, soybean, soymeal, turmeric and wheat are categorised as agri commodities. Notification of the CTT was delayed because of the ambiguity in the classification between agri and non- agri. The anomaly continues with the classification of some processed items, such as cotton, soymeal and cotton seed oilcake as agri commodities and, therefore, exempt. The rules specify that the exchanges must collect the tax from members and pay to the central government. With all processed agri commodities being classified ‘non- agri’, the tax is set to cover about 95% of the business of commodity exchanges. During 2012-13, registered commodity exchanges had a cumulative turnover of `17,046,840 cr, as against `18,126,104 cr in 2011- 12. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on June 20, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18719 5656 59.58 95.4 1285.9

-2.74 -2.86 1.46 -2.89 -6.38

-0.57 -0.76 2.71 -1.33 -6.66

-7.44 -8.14 8.24 -1.35 -7.11

11.03 10.82 6.60 13.53 -20.73

.Source: Reuters

Black Sea wheat makes Asia comeback after 3 years
Wheat buyers in Asia are looking to replace Indian and Australian cargoes in the lower-end feed grain market with cheaper supplies from the Black Sea, which will be returning to the region after a three-year gap. But quality-sensitive consumers in Asia are unlikely to substitute their food supplies with Russian and Ukrainian grain despite a ban on U.S. white wheat by major consumers Japan and South Korea. Thailand and the Philippines have already bought some 200,000 tonnes of Black Sea wheat in recent deals for animal feed and traders expect between 2.0 and 2.5 million tonnes to flow into Asia in the year to June 2014. (Source: Reuters)

U.S. House deals shock defeat to Republican farm bill Maize exports up 24% in 2012-13
India’s maize exports rose 24% to 4.78 mt in the 2012-13 fiscal as domestic supply remained adequate and traders adopted sound packaging practices to meet global standards, an industry body said. The country had exported 3.85 mt of maize in the previous fiscal. “There has been a substantial increase in maize exports. Production was higher and exporters took measures to improve packaging practices to meet global standards of shipment,” Indian Maize Development Association president Sain Das said on the sidelines of an event here. As per the data maintained by the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, maize exports increased in value terms to $1,302 mn in 201213 as against $1,075.70 million in the previous year. (Source: Business Line) Republican budget-cutters joined Democratic defenders of food stamps on Thursday to deal a shocking defeat to the $500 billion farm bill backed by Republican leaders in the House of Representatives, undermining hopes of enacting legislation before the current stop-gap law expires. The embarrassing loss for Republican leaders was the first time in at least 40 years that the House voted down a farm bill. Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor generally do not bring legislation to the floor until they are sure they have enough votes for passage. It showed the power of the Tea Party-influenced fiscal conservatives to disrupt legislation. A Library of Congress study showed it also may be the first time in history the House has rejected a farm bill, although in 2012 a farm bill died without being brought to a vote. (Source: Reuters)

Food min weighs 2 mt wheat exports via state agencies to address storage woes
The food ministry is considering a proposal to allow 2 mt of additional wheat exports at a floor price of around $300/tn through state-run trading agencies to ease storage, a senior government official said. This will be over and above the quantity in the ministry’s proposal before the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), which is scheduled to be taken up on Friday. The ministry has proposed to allow sales of 10 mt of wheat and 5 lakh tn of rice through the OMSS. The subsidy outgo on such bulk sales would be close to `5,500 crore. (Source: Financial Express)

Egypt aims to end wheat import stoppage before end-June
Egypt plans to buy wheat on international markets before the end of its fiscal year on June 30, the supplies minister said on Thursday, potentially ending a four-month purchasing pause due to its economic crisis. Egypt's state grain buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has not bought wheat since February as the country's financial and political crisis hit its currency reserves, hindering its ability to buy wheat in a timely manner. While the government has stepped up local purchases to meet demand, international wheat is still needed for blending to satisfy bread-making standards, industry experts say. (Source:
Reuters)

As Bangladesh bargains plans to transport grain to NE hit roadblock
India's proposal to transport foodgrain to Tripura and other northeastern states from Kolkata using Ashuganj Bangladesh’s river port seems to have been delayed because of the latter’s demand to allow its trucks to enter the Indian territory for unloading foodgrain. Bangladesh’s ministry of foreign affairs, in a letter to the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, has stated, “Due to the constraint of space and absence of loading or unloading facilities in the border, and also considering the limitations of time and logistical support during trans-shipment, foodgrain-laden Bangladeshi trucks be allowed to reach directly to the unloading point in Agartala.” (Source: Financial Express)

USDA tests grain, probes Colorado storage site in GMO wheat mystery
The U.S. Agriculture Department, probing how a genetically engineered trait entered an Oregon wheat field and the extent of the contamination, has tested a dozen wheat samples and is looking at a national seed storage facility in an effort to resolve the mystery and calm a troubled market for U.S. wheat exports, a spokesman said on Thursday. The government has tested eight samples of seed and four grain samples and none of the more than 100 tests conducted have turned up positive for the experimental genetically engineered trait that was found contaminating the Oregon wheat field this spring, said Ed Curlett, a spokesman for the USDA. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures settled lower on Thursday on account of good progress of monsoon raising prospects of rabi pulses sowing. However, spot continued with its upward trend on account of good demand at lower levels. Chana prices are sustaining above their MSP levels since past two weeks. Despite of god demand at such lower levels, sharp upside in the prices is capped mainly on account of higher production this season along with good progress of monsoon is restricting. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced in the rain fed areas Maharashtra & Karnataka on account of timely and normal rains. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX June'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 20, 2013 % change Last 3200 3199 Prev day 0.08 -0.50 WoW -0.31 -0.37 MoM -5.19 -4.25
Source: Reuters

YoY -24.26 -22.65

Spread Matrix
Closing 3200 3199 3228 3297 20-Jun-13 -1 0 -

as on June 20, 2013 19-Jul-13 28 29 0 20-Aug-13 97 98 69 0 as on June 19, 2013 Stocks as on 18th June 75827 43711 10575 130115 Qty in Process 890 437 471 1798

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13

Demand supply scenario
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse
Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 19th June 76688 43721 10575 130984 Qty in Process 181 426 442 1049

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012–13 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may trade sideways with upward as declining arrivals along with good demand at lower levels may support prices. However, good rains, thereby, prospects of better kharif sowing may cap sharp upside in the prices. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 21, 2013 Resistance 3251-3273

3190-3210

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Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
After witnessing profit booking in the previous session, Soybean July futures settled 03% higher on Thursday. Spot prices also gained 0.5% yesterday. Despite of good progress of monsoon & hopes of better sowing, Soybean prices remained in a positive territory on account of supply tightness in the domestic markets along with the firmness in the international markets due to delayed planting. In the domestic markets, planting of kharif oilseeds such as groundnut, sesame and castor has started in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Soybean sowing has commenced with good monsoon over Maharashtra and MP. Monsoon has covered almost the entire country a month before the normal schedule. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds’ sowing is 1.57 lakh ha against 1.56 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMD’s forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean slumped yesterday declining almost 1.6% on account of profit taking amid broad based selling in commodity markets. Less threatening weather forecasts for late plantings and development of crops across the Farm Belt dampened positive market sentiments. Price were on an upward trend since past few weeks as supplies are tight till the new crop arrives in the US and delayed planting will further delay harvesting adding to the already squeezed stocks. According to the latest USDA report, 85% planting is complete as against 98% last year and a five year average of 91%. The government is predicting record soybean yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed planting & damaged crops already in ground prevented farmers from sowing all of their seeds.

Market Highlights

as on June 20, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.52 3.09 0.15 -1.67 0.42 0.11 6.04 -0.84 0.70 0.46

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX June '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 4036 4002 1498 3523 3501

MoM -0.44 -0.89 2.25 0.70 0.75

YoY 10.94 11.35 3.53 -9.67 -8.52

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 4036 4002 3939.5 3271.5 20-Jun-13 -34 0 19-Jul-13 -96.5 -62.5 0 -

as on June 20, 2013 20-Aug-13 -764.5 -730.5 -668 0 as on June20, 2013 19-Jul-13 11.2 33 0 20-Aug-13 57.2 79 46 0 as on June 19, 2013 Qty in Process 978 529 0 1507 as on June 19, 2013 Qty in Process 0 505 51 0 614 180 0 1350 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3522.8 3501 3534 3580 20-Jun-13 -21.8 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse
Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 19th June 18937 1903 401 21241 Stocks as on 19th June 3010 3669 20157 634 57293 4711 1600 91074 Qty in Process 967 587 0 1554 Qty in Process 0 172 51 0 775 140 10 1148 Stocks as on 18th June 18758 1903 401 21062 Stocks as on 18th June 3010 3225 20116 634 56529 4532 1600 89646

Outlook
Soybean prices may remain under downside pressure as ministry of agriculture may release soybean planting figures today which is expected to come higher compared to last year. Weak international markets amidst improved weather may also support a bearish tone in the markets.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse
Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard futures July futures settled 0.3% higher on Thursday on account of short coverings. Higher supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt have pressurized prices in the past few weeks. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart –Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may remain under downside pressure on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 21, 2013 Support 3900-3921 3516-3525 Resistance 3960-3985 3543-3552

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil July contract opened sharply higher yesterday on account of weakness in the Indian rupee. However, prices witnessed profit taking at higher levels and thus settled 0.5% higher on Thursday. Edible oil prices have gained in the domestic markets in the last 3-4 weeks on account of weak rupee which was making imports costlier. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kgs `/10 kgs USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 719.05 718.25 48.40 2457 511.90 Prev day 0.48 0.36 -1.93 -0.36 1.31

as on June 20, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia – June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Fut

WoW 1.18 1.21 1.17 2.85 3.23

MoM -0.86 -1.21 -1.63 5.45 8.71

YoY -2.94 -1.93 -4.74 -19.04 -9.21

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 719.05 718.25 703.95 697.8 20-Jun-13 -0.8 0 19-Jul-13 -15.1 -14.3 0 -

as on June 20, 2013 20-Aug-13 -21.25 -20.45 -6.15 0 as on June 20, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade with a positive bias on account of weakness in the Indian rupee along with festive season demand.

Crude Palm Oil
KLCE Palm oil futures fell from the highest level in almost three months on Thursday as commodities tumbled on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve may phase out stimulus However, despite of fall in the international palm oil prices, MCX CPO settled 1.3% higher on account of sharp depreciation in the domestic currency. International as well as domestic CPO prices have gained significantly on account of good demand ahead of Ramadan. Exports of Malaysian palm oil in first half of June surged as much as 19% as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994,” the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said.

CPO Spread Matrix
30-Jun-13 30-Jul-13 30-Aug-13 Closing 511.9 512.4 512.8 30-Jun-13 0 30-Jul-13 0.5 0 -

30-Aug-13 0.9 0.4 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart –Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart –Crude Palm Oil

MCX June contract

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade higher as good demand as well as weakness in the domestic currency may support an upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX June Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 21, 2013 Support 697-700 505-509 Resistance 706-710 517-522

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera July futures opened higher yesterday extending previous day’s gains and settled 0.24% higher on Thursday on account of good overseas as well as local demand. However, prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking coupled with good arrivals. Currently, about 25-30% of total arrivals have been exported, mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,490 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13508 13230 5556 5662 Prev day 0.43 0.40 0.03 1.32

as on June 20, 2013 % Change WoW 0.57 2.08 1.24 2.98 MoM -0.26 1.61 -7.61 -4.03 YoY -1.63 -0.71 58.44 53.11

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX June '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX June '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 13508.3 13230 13412.5 13720 20-Jun-13 -278.3 0 19-Jul-13 -95.8 182.5 0 -

as on June 20, 2013 20-Aug-13 211.7 490 307.5 0 as on June 20, 2013 20-Jun-13 106.25 0 19-Jul-13 140.25 34 0 20-Aug-13 230.25 124 90 0 as on June 19, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 18th June Process 843 7513 8356 4456 NCDEX July contract 3 141 144 477

Arrivals production and Exports
Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 7,000 bags on Thursday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-42 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Turmeric Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 5555.75 5662 5696 5786

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade higher today as overseas as well as domestic demand. However, good supplies may cap the upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse
Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 19th June 846 7579 8425 4764 Qty in Process 0 9 9 178

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded higher yesterday on account of lower arrivals as Erode mandi remained closed. Fresh export enquiries also supported prices and settled 0.82% higher on Wednesday. However, good progress of the monsoon thereby expectations of good sowing have capped the gains. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart – Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad mandi was reported at 5,000 bags while Erode mandi remained closed on Wednesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP s th reported at 0.01 lakh ha as on 19 June, 2013. Sowing Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 40-50%. It is estimated that current year’s carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected on a positive note today on account of lower arrivals as well as some fresh export enquiries. However, upside may be capped on account of huge carryover stocks. Good monsoon progress thereby prospects of good sowing may also add to the downside pressure. However, lower arrivals as well as spot demand and fresh export enquiries at lower levels.

Technical Chart – Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 21, 2013
Support 13170-13300 5570-5630 Resistance 13560-13700 5744-5800

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices continued with its downward trend on reports that government might not consider increase in the import duty until September 2013. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western parts of the country have eased damage concerns thereby exerting downside pressure on the prices. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan as well as concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year limited the downside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 42.09 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX June '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3029 `/qtl 488.1 $/tonne 364.00 $/tonne -3.48 -1.55 -1.21 Last 3050

as on June 20, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.27 -0.74 -1.91 3.13 0.86 MoM -0.37 2.26 2.89 -2.56 YoY 3.20 1.99 -20.58 -24.66

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3050 3029 3060 3110 20-Jun-13 -21 0 19-Jul-13 10 31 0 -

as on June 20, 2013 20-Aug-13 60 81 50 0

Domestic Production and Exports
After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, India’s Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtra’s production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse
Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 19th June 1698 6837 1022 0 18557 Qty in Process 550 0 0 1229 1779 Stocks as on 18th June 1698 6607 1022 0 9327

as on June 19, 2013 Qty in Process 550 230 0 0 780

Global Sugar Updates
After showing signs of recovery in the past 3-4 sessions ICE as well as Liffe Sugar futures continued its down trend and settled 3.4% and 1.5% lower respectively. As per the local weather forecaster Somar, heavier than expected rains have halted cane harvesting for seven days for some mills across centersouth Brazil in June, the world's biggest sugar producing region. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three year’s low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazil’s cane industry association, Unica, projects main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures are expected to trade on a mixed note today. Demand from stockists coupled with output concerns this season may support prices. However, weak international prices coupled with good rains in the cane growing regions may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 21, 2013 Resistance 3251-3273

3190-3210

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Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton settled 0.2% and 0.4% higher on Thursday as sharp depreciation in the rupee supported an upside in the prices. Prices were also supported by good demand for yarn and declining supplies in the domestic. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October th 2012 until 26 May, 2013 were down at 311.17 lakh bales, down from 320.82 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1073 19200 84.92 93.6

as on June 20, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.28 -0.74 0.47 -0.47 -0.56 -7.41 -0.74 -2.09 MoM YoY -0.74 #N/A 7.20 18.37 -1.00 2.10 -0.32 8.46
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 15.85 lakh ha as against 15.72 lakh ha during the same period last year. Plating is almost complete in North India and sowing in Punjab and Haryana declined marginally. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced. Sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. Planting in Gujarat is yet to gain momentum.

Cotton Spread Matrix
Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19200 19470 19850 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 20, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 270 0 650 380 0

Domestic Production and Consumption
Cotton Advisory Board in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of India’s estimates differ from that of the cotton advisory board which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse
Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 18th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 19, 2013

Stocks as on 17th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates
ICE cotton declined 0.5% on Thursday as rains in West Texas raised cotton crop prospects in top US cotton producing state, leading to long liquidation in the markets. Prices were trading around the highest levels in three months during the last week as USDA lowered its forecast for cotton inventory in the US for upcoming season due to a lower-than-expected crop in Texas. Further, lower planting was also supporting an upside in the cotton prices. Plantings were reported at 95% v/s 88% last week, 5 year avg of 97%.

Technical Chart - Kapas

Outlook
Cotton may trade with upward bias during the intraday on account of thin supplies and good yarn demand. Weakness in the Indian rupee may also support prices. Ministry of agriculture will release weekly sowing progress reports. Thus, cotton prices may take cues from cotton planting situation.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX June contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April ’14 Fut Cotton MCX June Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 21, 2013 Support 1059-1066 19120-19180 Resistance 1078-1085 19280-19330

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report
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Friday| June 21, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled higher by 1.5% and 0.38% respectively on Thursday on account of good demand and comparatively lower supplies at higher prices. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing. Also, Stockiest who were holding stocks in anticipation of better prices liquidated stocks in the physical markets on expected normal monsoon thereby increasing supplies in the market.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX June ‘13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX June ’13 Fut `/qtl 7610 `/qtl 21199 `/qtl 22510 `/qtl 0.81 -1.63 -0.13 Last Prev day 7350 -1.51

as on June 20, 2013 % change WoW 9.70 12.91 8.84 14.96 MoM -22.83 -18.78 -24.65 -20.96 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing
IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, four weeks ahead of schedule and the earliest on record. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 7350 7610 7140 6240 20-Jun-13 260 0 19-Jul-13 -210 -470 0 -

as on June 20, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1110 -1370 -900 0 as on June 20, 2013 19-Jul-13 -259 -1570 0 Stocks as on 18th June 30 0 20-Aug-13 -2399 -3710 -2140 0 as on June 19, 2013 Qty in Process 30 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix
Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 21199 22510 20940 18800 Stocks as on 19th June 59 0 20-Jun-13 1311 0 Qty in Process 0 10

Production and Exports
According to Rajasthan Farm Department’s third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse
Location Deesa Bikaner

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
A prediction of below normal rains in Northwest India may support an upside in the prices in the near term. However, it is too early to predict the same as monsoon progress so far is smooth. Further, supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand thus exerting pressure on the prices at higher levels.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 21, 2013 Support 6850-6980 6850-6990 20100-20450 20100-20450 Resistance 7250-7400 7260-7410 21180-21550 21180-21550
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com