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Non-agricultural commodities

Natural gas fundamentals (billion cubic metre)

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

World
Natural gas production

2987

3066

2945

2876

2778

Natural gas consumption

2,940

3,019

2,938

2,843

2,770

Dry natural gas imports

-

998

973

924

899

Dry natural gas exports

-

981

943

897

860

187,490

185,020

177,050

173,800

172,920

Proven gas reserves
Proven gas reserves - former Soviet Union

58530

57,000

51,500

51,700

51,690

Proven gas reserves - OECD

16,180

16,630

16,560

15,700

15,770

India
1,120

1,090

1,060

1,080

1,100

Natural gas production

Proven gas reserves

39

31

30

30

29

Natural gas consumption

52

41

40

37

36

Natural gas (LNG) imports

13

11

10

8

6

-

-

-

-

-

5.11%

2.69%

2.68%

4.21%

-

Natural gas exports
Average daily volatility (MCX spot prices)

Source: BP statistical & Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Energy Information Administration, MCX

US summer cooling degree-days (population-weighted)
Month
2009
2008

2007

2006

2005

normal

APR

29

31

23

53

-

33

MAY

117

91

119

109

-

104

JUN

222

263

236

236

-

216

JUL

284

334

310

388

-

323

AUG

307

283

366

337

-

292

SEP
Total Summer

169

171

191

138

-

160

1,127

1,173

1,246

1,261

-

1,128

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

US winter cooling degree-days (population-weighted)
Month
2009
2008

2007

2006

2005

normal

OCT

330

281

175

305

236

282

NOV

442

533

521

467

466

539

DEC

867

832

800

690

866

817

JAN

931

969

892

841

687

917

FEB

809

705

741

853

731

732

MAR

541

583

617

502

600

593

3920

3,904

3,746

3,657

3,586

3,880

Total Winter

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

200 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

Economic parameters impacting Natural gas prices

2009
US working natural gas in storage (billion cubic metres)
Five year average (billion cubic metres)

89
72

2008

2007

2006

2005

81
68

82
65.1

86
64

74
60.3

Hurricance activity - North Atlantic Ocean
Dates active
May 28 -
May 30 -
May 9 -
June 10 -

Nov - 10
Nov - 10
Dec - 13
Oct - 02
Total cyclones recorded
11
17
17
10
Total landfalls
4
33
16
7
Approximate damage (in US$ billion)
0.077
48
3
0.5
Deaths
6
855
394
7

July 8, 05 Jan 6, 06
31
29
130
3865

Real GDP (%)
US
-2.5
1.1
2
2.9
Japan
-5.4
-0.3
1.9
2.8
Eurozone
-4.0
1
2.3
2.6
China
8.7
9
11.5
11.1
India
5.5
7.3
8.9
9.7
OECD
-3.4
1
2.6
3.2

3.1
2.4
1.4
10.4
9
2.7

Consumer Price inflation (% change)
US
0.0
1
2.5
2.7
Japan
-1.7
0.5
1.4
0.3
Eurozone
0.5
1
3
2.2
China
0.8
3
5.9
2
India
7.5
5
7
6.7
OECD
0.1
1
3
2.2

3.4
0.3
2.2
1.4
5.3
2.1

Industrial Output (YoY % change)
US
-2.0
-8.9
1.7
1.5
Japan
5.3
-20.7
1.5
5.4
Eurozone
-6.8
-12.2
1.4
5.3
China
11.0
5.7
17.4
14.7
India
11.7
-0.2
8
13.4

2.9
3.4
2.5
16.5
5.7

Interest rates (%)
US (Fed funds target)
0.00 - 0.25 
0.25
4.25
5.25
Japan (12 month T-Bills)
0.13
0.249
0.581
0.618
Eurozone (refinance rates)
1
2.5
4
3.5
China (lending rate )
5.31
5.31
7.47
6.12
India (repo rate )
4.75
6.5
7.75
7.25

4.25
0.066
2.25
5.58
6.25

Money Supply ( YoY % change)
US
3.7
9.6
5.6
5.4
Japan
2.2
0.7
0.7
-0.6
Eurozone
-0.3
7.5
11.6
9.9
China
27.58
17.82
16.72
16.9
India
17.2
19.6
22.84
19.33

4.1
0.3
7.4
17.6
17.79

Equity Index (points) – Year End
US (Dow Jones)
10428
8776
13265
12463
India (Sensex)
17464
9647
20287
13787

10718
9398

OECD Indicators
OECD Total monetary aggr. & comp. broad money index
135.8
127.3
116.9
107.6
OECD Total purchasing power index manufacturing
N/A
113.83
106.9
103.7
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups total energy IPB
114.4
127.8
113.7
109.3

US ISM manufacturing index
54.9
32.9
49.1
52.2
US auto sales (YoY % change)
15.1%
-35.6%
-2.9%
-3.6%
US pending home sales (YoY % change )
9.2
5.7
-23.9
-6.3

100
100
100
54.9
-3.7%
-6.3

Source: OECD, EIA, NOAA, CPM Gold Yearbook, IMF, World Bank, BSE, Dow Jones

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 201

30 45.00 41.27 54.30 308.80 324.00 272.57 36.56 9.20 4.96 46.46 43.77 83.28 7.00 12.50 201.98 3.30 368.42 4.57 38.06 308.40 321.87 80.71 31.67 322.20 6.36 7.00 20.50 60.40 48.30 268.90 286.10 39.45 28.48 44.20 215.90 20.50 21.82 42.07 6.30 320.00 40.00 40.50 46.75 35.10 329.00 26.70 324.40 52.32 5.13 40.00 66.55 86.60 186.80 107.90 6.00 32.79 4.42 9.50 63.33 44.80 14.30 439.00 226.50 185.05 4.50 253.47 47.62 7.81 80.90 4.03 44.40 17.00 30.36 48.30 573.49 36.90 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 177.50 9.23 12.74 7.82 5.60 158.00 184.04 5.00 214.21 13.30 294.00 305.80 55.00 90.00 61.50 7.19 28.87 5.77 8.30 225.20 295.78 34.53 7.50 399.00 23.51 5.23 3.64 45.00 10.50 386.00 388.00 58.55 36.93 282.63 3.57 7.70 294.90 34.00 266.00 58.00 39.79 359.70 391.70 260.15 30.00 2.61 5.60 286.32 4.24 598.50 277.13 5.77 5.60 522.40 218.69 330.10 374.87 5.84 225.70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 174.04 7.20 213.00 335.30 335.40 11.12 13.00 17.98 3.00 16.92 6.98 6.00 147.10 492.90 230.00 43.69 88.00 228.90 6.30 440.60 7.30 52.00 50.70 184.80 337.19 78.55 7.65 4.99 26.00 400.70 277.50 27.75 21.00 296.74 6.51 165.00 47.00 60.60 5.11 8.00 229.70 312.80 314.44 7.94 7.78 42.50 26.00 58.40 281.00 30.00 51.38 6.30 31.40 45.60 257.20 19.80 10.71 80.30 61.80 78.56 192.84 84.07 84.75 55.85 3.20 ICE (UK) natural gas (GBP/therm) High Low Close 31.14 80.00 9.67 77.00 59.25 37.00 343.02 61.34 283.85 5.20 6.60 68.90 324.70 13.75 9.60 45.90 4.60 7.33 85.90 60.30 41.18 52.00 48.00 276.70 12.33 45.23 49.00 171.50 175.60 42.00 59.40 6.36 3.70 270.50 72.24 73.06 45.54 51.40 5.81 23.00 324.34 38.83 90.50 226.00 43.17 6.50 252.38 60.80 494.72 29.60 291.00 22.01 81.05 8.00 57.28 84.17 77.10 196.60 341.50 314.10 5.60 310.57 216.71 258.54 46.00 7.60 3.34 40.71 6.50 8.30 261.30 8.88 6.47 7.80 297.80 73.38 3.70 279.00 31.40 174.00 191.05 72.90 43.84 10.38 251.63 43.29 25.10 236.29 18.00 33.13 89.29 5.00 27.60 12.90 217.50 4.00 342.61 82.55 27.28 50.24 7.65 86.00 366.87 4.98 77.60 325.90 7.70 53.00 45.52 7.04 7.40 51.80 7.77 40.20 5.00 24.42 6.69 7.73 7.30 205.08 12.16 3.07 7.30 5.80 497.10 11.60 3.00 50.27 32.60 66.95 83.00 57.98 7.84 6.40 57.00 38.97 33.39 3.50 251.80 354.00 45.35 11.10 6.82 4.11 85.39 4.60 21.00 60.98 6.40 332.80 11.70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MCX spot prices (Rs/mmBtu) Monthly average 196.10 282.41 2.74 80.11 6.80 28.80 220.98 4.78 79.44 39.70 373.00 7.00 79.80 577.89 56.84 3.59 43.84 7.00 9.27 32.39 242.50 44.60 220.00 311.05 10.70 31.82 11.90 37.07 21.00 76.83 48.50 23.93 6.50 324.77 76.63 46.39 48.86 32.58 83.52 7.01 7.56 7.21 8.10 22.69 13.30 8.10 9.37 84.65 3.02 40.50 274.22 7.90 10.51 6.43 254.80 11.10 298.71 9.50 292.50 26.37 39.44 318.38 6.10 327.33 7.25 34.90 6.33 6.00 52.60 7.84 42.60 45.70 288.32 9.50 18.20 288.03 4.80 75.72 75.70 14.72 7.70 273.47 46.86 89.37 76.99 3.70 72.71 9.88 7.40 31.50 63.25 6.00 26.49 43.50 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Monthly MCX futures prices (Rs/mmBtu) High Low Close 225.68 4.41 8.10 238.80 7.00 33.33 311.60 259.73 44.00 56.71 4.00 18.51 40.00 58.10 287.80 35.70 404.90 26.63 44.77 327.32 261.13 335.73 39.54 87.60 142.80 206.30 55.26 82.95 44.80 314.90 84.11 6.90 239.50 336.00 48.27 77.20 6.40 5.50 146.50 321.30 85.97 76.00 87.20 168.40 270.12 46.00 108.50 77.20 5.94 8.70 7.00 29.20 39.80 23.29 7.74 45.00 114.56 42.60 271.13 8.21 82.22 48.00 5.00 44.65 45.40 39.60 24.00 354.15 44.61 50.84 2.30 13.55 88.32 11.60 12.40 298.82 43.34 359.00 34.70 6.48 7.58 57.90 169.30 292.38 6.90 34.20 6.63 91.20 28. ICE 202 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 203 .80 264.26 88.64 62.30 341.50 293.18 31.13 6.27 4.30 8.00 75.20 24.80 5.40 337.25 27.51 28.80 331.30 42.83 3.48 7.24 6.30 7.99 87.70 385.64 328.25 246.92 4.53 8.39 8.00 29.00 60.90 3.55 6.92 43.00 231.49 3.90 190.60 7.30 364.80 379.25 84.37 8.90 29.90 303.40 76.00 64.20 334.50 355.30 21.89 8.27 10.30 49.58 54.30 8.21 8.50 44.93 53.30 8.80 196.42 26.40 186.60 354.10 237.59 US spot prices (USD/mmbtu) Monthly average Open 4.20 242.50 325.62 8.14 3.19 RBI rate USD/ INR Dollar index Monthly average 45.46 37.48 7.20 225.60 8.50 43.54 43.55 6.11 85.81 5.85 8.24 Source: Exchanges’ websites.30 67.36 20.72 86.30 65.51 31.20 6.00 300.54 8.53 6.60 459.19 6.78 4.27 42.21 6.00 416.83 83.12 13.94 9.60 252.40 58.10 390.62 8.22 46.67 29.77 7.00 18.50 6.00 51.58 90.50 118.35 7.29 545.68 6.55 487.39 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Monthly NYMEX futures prices (USD/mmbtu) Open High Low Close 4.75 25.80 32.00 6.84 7.17 6.63 12.10 388.50 403.20 197.74 5.10 6.20 13.91 85.44 81.46 46.41 5.42 5.64 7.19 6.50 6.00 71.37 89.00 15.00 324.80 81.50 426.25 5.17 84.96 189.21 6.00 35.38 72.71 8.16 3.44 39.80 12.00 33.50 37.77 7.20 574.23 6.83 7.60 239.30 65.53 79.06 4.40 350.16 44.82 43.78 7.32 312.22 7.72 48.60 252.80 39.60 5.18 9.50 29.83 2.60 246.20 591.60 35.00 53.80 6.00 388.16 4.81 295.00 57.20 377.26 7.25 11.84 4.90 5.92 11.58 3.90 214.82 5.07 7.53 78.40 195.00 29.80 236.00 39.80 3.00 51.20 165.80 398.70 7.00 44.60 342.40 7.00 20.00 31.69 7.86 7.80 12.71 86.36 39.96 4.52 40.37 3.57 4.50 41.77 33.20 340.52 7.10 239.00 22.10 226.00 59.52 62.87 3.79 75.21 72.00 351.25 58.75 24.27 169.18 6.97 8.90 364.71 39.00 31.43 4.70 27.30 50.96 7.80 6.47 7.00 11.20 329.88 17.00 33.00 353.62 6.50 373.00 29.50 216.62 6.67 181.Non-agricultural commodities Natural gas prices Month Open Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Dec-06 Nov-06 Oct-06 Sep-06 Aug-06 Jul-06 Jun-06 May-06 Apr-06 Mar-06 Feb-06 Jan-06 Dec-05 Nov-05 Oct-05 Sep-05 Aug-05 Jul-05 Jun-05 May-05 Apr-05 220.69 3.15 20.80 216.32 6.50 266.53 60.30 9.23 5.94 411.89 6.40 12.00 32.45 27.59 46.23 2.39 319.30 6.40 478.00 11.00 80.60 13.38 6.42 40.86 5.08 51.50 174.35 31.00 71.11 7.00 25.64 49. RBI.80 65.50 26.40 10.73 7.20 282.10 6.90 274.33 44.10 62.41 73.40 37.10 6.11 85.41 44.90 38.55 3.40 30.60 373.53 5.90 31.01 249.81 32.26 78.00 38.80 173.85 45.50 322.61 85.94 42.70 391.13 8.00 36.30 265.29 5.84 3.32 5.00 14.00 56.63 84.50 6.22 250.34 3.23 8.00 339.78 48.00 209.33 10.59 12.00 7.68 11.05 7.00 36.79 73.80 26.00 117.03 29.00 6.00 61.00 32.70 194.73 7.70 10.47 6.67 6.40 344.82 40.

Outlook for 2015 (Quadrillion Btu) Region Forecast release year 2010 2009 OECD North America 25 27.2 2 12 16.2 0 2.2 41.6 China 2.7 Other 9.6 7 Brazil - 1 Other Central/South America - 6 Total Non-OECD 86.2 8.7 1.1 - Total OECD 40.9 3.2 South Korea - 0 Australia/New Zealand 3.3 9.8 Japan - 0.8 15.3 17.9 0.2 2. Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month.2 35 Russia 23 26.7 41.3 Non-OECD Asia 15.9 10.8 Africa 11.Non-agricultural commodities World natural gas production by region & country .6 Central & South America 6.4 India - 2 Other non-OECD Asia 12.7 Non-OECD Europe & Eurasia 32.1 OECD Europe 9.4 20.3 0.7 Note: * includes supplemental production or forecast discrepancy Source: Energy Information Administration 2008 27.2 36.9 17.9 9.1 26.6 5.5 2.2 3.5 2.8 85 Total World 126.6 Other OECD 2.6 5.3 129. Cumulative open interest in all contracts at the month-end.7 7.8 11.9 United States* 19. Source: Exchanges’ websites 204 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 205 .7 6.9 126.6 11 OECD Asia 3.5 Natural gas trading activity MCX NYMEX ICE (UK) Month Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Dec-06 Nov-06 Oct-06 Sep-06 Aug-06 Jul-06 Jun-06 May-06 Apr-06 Mar-06 Feb-06 Jan-06 Dec-05 Nov-05 Oct-05 Sep-05 Aug-05 Jul-05 Jun-05 May-05 Apr-05 597296 508156 901972 1057446 983755 1306570 1880018 1419262 1604219 1395465 696633 335013 239186 118124 88800 76673 57192 37573 114983 80679 75181 48145 40258 35838 50629 58270 72085 52889 75330 145212 220683 194097 116498 56638 64735 72435 214038 252161 268043 264821 350058 266576 383188 546150 142963 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 15801 10170 7003 9357 11885 6817 9014 42877 43636 35251 17709 13771 5402 1505 1903 884 457 288 1229 823 820 508 645 901 1008 1456 1170 1333 1689 1828 2046 6720 4646 3060 2560 2172 2467 2870 3433 7209 6538 4992 10178 9012 4519 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4691010 4557698 4501942 5347178 4413904 5507775 5597662 4445944 3979357 4486552 3478986 2493091 2989920 2780551 2343719 2384252 2539865 3151675 3458479 3756124 4273971 3379074 3141953 3382892 2983598 3330580 2741217 2390939 2474062 3155437 2486465 3069117 2346727 2703626 2285014 2181057 1938669 2431720 2617276 1844836 1775475 1935134 2017651 2428749 1786249 1920553 2272497 1911616 1682199 1833896 1609894 1458655 1449478 1433396 1587595 2044365 1519793 1931946 1504071 1585960 830935 816126 776283 707590 714288 695972 672952 713161 715227 712804 685105 659775 624397 671554 682516 679760 718799 766597 881561 919430 942703 974174 898031 872489 865871 928172 898698 849704 818517 748047 750875 765421 809913 803710 760212 732753 740862 758890 899420 874752 889654 907876 943162 927572 908412 852733 833675 728557 645100 607619 533212 539226 538843 525282 546532 501270 499993 470677 476850 471311 161540 142470 183560 113315 151470 173805 166760 97880 124545 114050 109785 111935 120325 146665 150775 65100 75045 91455 71460 68850 77440 58310 59920 82985 62185 79120 78945 69925 101725 117705 105870 124230 100110 65570 76305 69025 90755 77970 59125 25860 60255 61575 77810 45850 41925 36330 44765 34735 31250 39790 45450 35655 52420 34155 34110 29755 36150 26080 25350 29220 119410 97580 81848 83575 87665 93472 100430 105810 96645 93996 89627 82393 75270 56060 46270 43869 43701 45475 51974 49680 51210 45480 41635 36815 34695 28041 28450 24180 25700 29645 31350 32525 31515 27515 28185 27180 27665 24840 20830 18640 18215 18065 19990 17360 13390 14675 13219 9795 9265 9650 12360 13270 17220 15845 17245 20340 21470 21657 19365 17535 Note: Vol and OI in lots.5 88.3 Middle East 20.4 Mexico - 2.1 19.5 Canada 5.9 10.

2010 -1 -1.938. Oil Gas Ratio and Spread Between Natural Gas Second and First Month Contract 2.677 316.5 30 Natural Gas Prices 2 Oil Gas Ratio 25 59 Request for registration Iran Canada Spread (NG2 .900.Non-agricultural commodities Carbon fundamentals Carbon Market 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Vol Val Vol Val Vol Val Vol Val Vol Val (MCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) Natural Gas Production 2009 USA 20% Project based transactions Primary CDM Others Russian Federation 50% 18% 211 2678 404 6511 552 7433 450 4.813 341 2.5 15 2879 CERs .790.org As on 1st July.768 324.234. no issuance of CERs Registered.000.Title 2009 2008 Number of CERs CDM projects Annual average Expected CERs CERs* until end of 2012** CDM project pipeline: > 4200 of which: 2227 are registered N/A > 2.818.391 > 40. 2007.998.000 366.NG1) RHS 20 150 Validation negative by DOEs 158 Registered. rejected & withdrawn) 6184 0 -0.000. 2010 Source:UNFCCC 171 1.000. CER issued 673 1519 743 Total registered 2262 1 Total number of projects (incl.5 10 49 Rejected by EB Validation terminated by DOEs Source:www.000 14.5 0.826 > 1.5 Source: NYMEX 206 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 207 .951 Request for review 39 Total CERs requested 425.862.820.000 92 are requesting registration * Assumption: All activities deliver simultaneously their expected annual average emission reductions ** Assumption: No renewal of crediting periods N/A . 2008.220 Correction requested 49 Under review 24 Total in the process of registration Withdrawn Natural Gas Prices. 2006 by the World Bank USA 22% Others 54% Carbon fundamentals Status of CDM projects Number Russian Federation At validation 13% Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 UK 5% 3% 3% Issued CERs 419.417 Secondary CDM 1055 17543 1072 26277 240 5451 25 444 10 221 Sub total (including JI and voluntary market) 1338 20913 1558 33574 876 13646 508 5477 382 2894 Allowances market EU ETS Iran Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 4% Norway Canada 3% 5% 6326 118474 3093 100526 2060 49065 1101 24357 321 7908 34 117 31 183 25 224 20 225 6 59 New South Wales Chicago Climate Exchange Natural Gas Consumption 2009 41 50 69 309 23 72 10 38 1 3 Sub total (including others) 7362 122822 3278 101492 2108 49361 1131 24620 328 7971 Total carbon market 8700 143735 4836 135066 2984 63007 1639 30097 710 10865 Source: State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009.5 5 -2 0 Mar-1 May-0 Jul-0 Sep-0 Nov-0 Jan-0 Mar-0 Jul-0 May-0 Sep-0 Jan-01 Nov-01 Mar-0 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Jan-9 Nov-9 Mar-9 Jul-9 May-9 Sep-9 Nov-91 Jan-91 -2.cdmpipeline.Not Available Source:UNFCCC As on 1st July.