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Non-agricultural commodities

Copper fundamentals (‘000 tonnes)

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Global
Production

18405

18236

17944

17296

16572

% change

0.93%

1.63%

3.75%

4.37%

4.46%

Ex-China

14205

14441

14445

14293

13972

Consumption

17628

17935

18163

17140

16616

% change

-1.71%

-1.26%

5.97%

3.15%

-0.53%

Ex-China

12588

13146

13370

13370

13010

1184

706

547

560

468

China refined copper imports

244

212

112

96

60

China refined copper exports

13

1

7

3

40

Western world stocks

India
Copper production

641

669

719

627

518

Copper consumption

520

500

475

407

397

Copper and copper products imports

220

227

193

278

211

Copper and copper products exports

279

416

450

356

289

Inventory levels - year-end
LME

502.4

339.8

197.5

182.8

89.6

SHFE

95.3

15.3

25.6

31.3

57.8

Average daily volatility (MCX spot prices)

1.92%

3.3%

2.5%

2.2%

1.9%

Source: ICSG, DGCIS, USGS, GFMS Copper Survey 2009, GFMS base metal report, LME, SHFE, MCX, ICA

Global refined production - break-up (‘000 tonne)
Primary from concentrate

12913

12250

12141

11934

11768

Primary SX-EW

3314

3157

3060

2749

2644

Secondary

2898

2829

2743

2613

2161

18405

18236

17944

17296

16572

Total refined production
Source: GFMS Copper Survey 2010
Global refined consumption - break-up (‘000 tonne)
Construction

5597

5955

6276

6116

Electrical & electronic products
Transportation equipment

6000

6766

6218

5908

5288

5071

1824

2040

2145

1979

1950

Consumer & general products

1757

1824

1820

1769

1667

Industrial machinery & equipment

1684

1899

2014

1988

1927

17628

17935

18163

17140

16616

Total refined consumption
Source: GFMS Copper Survey 2010

Economic parameters impacting Copper prices

2009

2008

2007

2006

Real GDP (%)
US
-2.5
1.1
2
2.9
Japan
-5.4
-0.3
1.9
2.8
Eurozone
-4.0
1
2.3
2.6
China
8.7
9
11.5
11.1
India
5.5
7.3
8.9
9.7
OECD
-3.4
1
2.6
3.2

Consumer price inflation (% change)
US
0.0
1
2.5
2.7
Japan
-1.7
0.5
1.4
0.3
Eurozone
0.5
1
3
2.2
China
0.8
3
5.9
2
India
7.5
5
7
6.7
OECD
0.1
1
3
2.2

Industrial output (YoY % change)
US
-2.0
-8.9
1.7
1.5
Japan
5.3
-20.7
1.5
5.4
Eurozone
-6.8
-12.2
1.4
5.3
China
11.0
5.7
17.4
14.7
India
11.7
-0.2
8
13.4

Interest rates (%)
US (Fed funds target)
0.00 - 0.25 
0.25
4.25
5.25
Japan (12 month T-Bills)
0.13
0.249
0.581
0.618
Eurozone (refinance rates)
1
2.5
4
3.5
China (lending rate)
5.31
5.31
7.47
6.12
India (repo rate)
4.75
6.5
7.75
7.25

Money supply ( YoY % change)
US
3.7
9.6
5.6
5.4
Japan
2.2
0.7
0.7
-0.6
Eurozone
-0.3
7.5
11.6
9.9
China
27.58
17.82
16.72
16.9
India
17.2
19.6
22.84
19.33

Equity index (points) – Year End
US (Dow Jones)
10428
8,776
13,265
12,463
India (Sensex)
17464
9,647
20,287
13,787

OECD indicators
OECD Total Monetary Aggr. & Comp. Broad Money Index
135.8
127.3
116.9
107.6
OECD Total Purchasing Power Index Manufacturing
N/A
113.83
106.9
103.7
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups Total Energy IPB
114.4
127.8
113.7
109.3
ISM Manufacturing Index
US auto sales ( YoY % change )
US pending home sales ( YoY % change )

2005
3.1
2.4
1.4
10.4
9
2.7

3.4
0.3
2.2
1.4
5.3
2.1

2.9
3.4
2.5
16.5
5.7

4.25
0.066
2.25
5.58
6.25

4.1
0.3
7.4
17.6
17.79

10,718
9,398

100
100
100

54.9
15.1%

32.9
-35.6%

49.1
-2.9%

52.2
-3.6%

54.9
-3.7%

9.2

5.7

-23.9

-6.3

-6.3

Source: OECD, IMF, CPM Gold Yearbook, World Bank, BSE, Dow Jones

156 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 157

35 5.21 272.98 77.85 3454.79 75.17 314.60 Oct-06 351.00 32350.10 318.80 336.00 55500.48 5676.00 36000.26 6.00 51610.00 58920.00 28540. RBI 332.19 198.06 325.00 48400.00 33950.82 40.00 4400.00 62000.65 5.00 7000.00 325.50 Sep-06 358.00 55000.00 52700.00 8150.00 63000.94 313.00 70120.78 351.00 52140.30 302.40 Aug-08 342.00 43000.00 333.00 4840.00 38850.05 218.30 5215.20 234.00 30200.00 3185.00 40500.50 242.49 43.67 339.00 60100.00 5755.00 8800.55 207.20 241.00 4243.65 300.00 59750.33 45.90 305.50 344.00 8110.72 86.55 330.00 6645.25 145.00 7080.70 5.43 5.00 LME futures price (USD/tonne) High Low Close 7878.00 7385.00 7423.70 229.78 360.47 282.00 62620.76 3857.78 48.21 7.21 311.00 62090.34 5.00 35050.00 7450.85 256.20 Dec-09 324.00 3769.00 53850.00 61980.00 65400.16 44.00 49860.00 59910.25 7500.00 8212.02 40.83 90.94 42.20 Aug-09 276.00 139.00 7450.15 323.66 5.00 183.00 7245.00 37890.85 212.00 242.55 5.65 260.73 44.80 202.91 7475.10 7197.77 83.75 6755.65 86.05 72.00 33630.00 62100.40 76.06 45.25 3338.00 46150.00 3096.75 Apr-09 206.00 34200.00 5430.15 343.51 40.55 321.00 6952.90 Jun-05 139.73 6.83 6848.00 62800.50 7.00 60380.00 51490.55 342.80 Jan-07 285.71 86.00 65610.00 6310.00 3620.54 5.79 73.00 52150.84 234.45 344.53 79.00 31500.82 43.75 3314.00 26080.75 5.85 45.05 191.60 Nov-07 302.61 50.00 7075.81 5.00 70200.15 Mar-07 272.00 63300.00 45260.00 26370.00 7520.28 163.71 183.00 34860.07 3249.50 218.78 79.00 8625.00 6807.75 7060.00 63430.18 7500.61 5.00 37400.55 302.96 46.00 7615.05 177.80 Jul-08 365.40 Sep-09 308.75 May-09 228.16 337.40 278.73 353.00 3025.10 355.50 345.72 75.00 35530.05 287.00 3835.43 5.00 174.90 Feb-08 286.25 6981.33 44.00 57220.00 55100.00 8510.27 5.50 Aug-05 156.15 44.00 68150.00 72100.00 8380.00 35780.00 3853.00 246.85 327.00 69600.75 6750.00 173.75 4450.00 37280.00 53820.80 256.00 6935.25 5.00 8210.35 Jan-08 265.70 282.47 240.95 297.43 167.00 8585.00 6317.00 67850.34 4059.05 363.00 83770.10 255.00 5405.00 7774.81 80.29 5.25 3375.00 6395.00 58900.84 5.40 4734.00 6430.00 32410.48 44.00 45250.65 Sep-07 304.35 332.00 66040.00 61360.33 4576.00 2817.00 8415.00 4040.36 48.00 6502.00 49100.00 7510.10 322.00 3046.00 57650.50 Mar-08 335.25 7580.61 85.10 166.00 69920.00 71500.15 Jul-09 242.00 6180.00 29530.60 283.95 354.00 7725.00 3390.00 7405.00 5735.26 82.71 6675.00 7475.20 266.00 62900.50 322.00 6745.00 7611.55 302.00 46920.45 Feb-09 157.05 343.75 8684.00 4830.45 5669.20 222.00 67430.00 64500.90 311.00 7760.00 72000.00 50200.00 68030.90 383.83 83.73 39.15 355.00 4315.00 28550.00 54210.00 3670.19 78.00 60320.00 6700.80 310.25 4518.65 45.00 61100.63 91.00 36570.00 SHFE futures price (Yuan/tonne) High Low 61400.00 8820.33 44.13 40.00 38820.00 7150.25 Oct-07 317.00 Jun-09 229.64 45.00 36950.00 64060.00 6330.00 6675.75 373.05 Jun-07 305.68 5.65 347.85 MCX spot price (Rs/kg) Monthly average 340.10 164.00 6250.00 61650.00 64140.00 64560.34 5.65 253.00 61390.00 7550.47 150.03 184.90 193.77 76.00 69990.00 5510.65 202.00 4431.28 84.00 42600.90 356.50 Feb-10 310.50 Dec-05 193.00 7915.00 7761.50 293.26 5.00 6480.50 305.00 3287.05 157.00 4967.35 Jun-08 335.30 Source: Exchanges’ websites.30 Aug-07 322.85 338.00 70280.55 156.00 7095.45 Nov-08 207.78 6.00 53330.50 199.30 347.00 4819.32 5.00 42800.00 3311.55 144.30 156.28 253.55 3749.95 Dec-07 279.50 276.00 3215.00 3640.75 235.00 8155.23 49.08 51.75 5.03 44.00 63440.00 28640.59 43.75 3340.00 4685.50 5.00 6300.12 46.00 65240.30 193.00 7380.00 51580.60 276.36 7695.47 6452.77 40.66 7712.00 4710.00 7460.65 Dec-08 189.00 38400.59 46.15 204.00 67900.00 8160.00 6762.80 336.00 7025.00 51100.65 137.00 60900.00 Close 60890.00 6100.73 3220.00 8530.42 160.00 6860.25 5810.33 85.00 7700.05 Jul-06 343.08 7.00 61180.00 8620.00 57500.50 7480.20 Apr-08 335.65 327.95 83.60 312.00 35100.70 5.27 150.63 4406.00 6159.00 54050.67 6.75 184.00 8010.00 71030.00 35490.25 317.00 8390.18 7.00 64800.35 251.60 8382.50 351.40 247.00 33680.28 6.15 361.18 7386.82 42.00 37250.80 361.00 8020.00 7985.25 84.95 153.00 63200.00 3070.00 4168.00 3190.54 43.00 34830.84 3797.46 46.55 299.00 36700.00 4040.64 277.00 7900.00 65450.00 56070.35 243.00 46680.00 7790.95 292.00 48.85 4982.99 7.00 47680.90 192.00 45000.98 3717.00 7945.10 300.00 67270.83 6.00 45940.00 8100.00 66200.00 65210.00 8055.00 4650.00 3520.00 7375.00 5760.00 8335.00 37010.75 8315.00 53820.50 Jul-07 314.50 46.66 155.00 57800.00 6410.00 3517.00 59400.00 60130.20 338.13 89.00 3025.75 308.50 Sep-05 158.00 65510.00 7050.30 302.11 85.45 Oct-09 297.00 7229.00 50260.46 5.30 229.00 5388.00 4984.00 59930.86 6387.00 39400.12 7.60 138.00 3546.00 4925.00 7760.00 Feb-07 256.78 42.00 35200.00 29350.00 63100.00 34420.00 66700.55 292.65 335.40 45.00 3489.00 4246.00 4798.37 84.67 297.55 86.40 347.00 35810.00 3590.00 68000.00 6170.00 50580.91 85.00 56240.00 6475.15 Nov-09 308.00 54470.81 284.00 50990.15 316.00 6549.04 5.85 138.25 158 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010 Close 351.00 63000.00 75200.75 Mar-09 173.54 347.54 87.00 7002.00 76.12 6.26 88.00 33410.60 164.61 8045.36 39.30 169.00 6015.80 353.00 41930.58 90.20 285.00 7350.00 32500.55 Dec-06 320.11 319.98 7513.65 May-08 332.14 80.00 4240.00 4645.32 5.00 7120.00 48540.50 374.00 7545.00 2960.40 331.80 315.60 6287.84 42.95 287.10 302.00 6360.95 302.87 80.85 149.83 6.64 49.10 167.00 61990.00 7320.17 7766.00 73370.25 5100.05 206.00 7050.99 87.55 361.50 3603.79 299.00 5781.00 59540.00 7195.75 Nov-05 174.51 5.88 7682.50 278.10 3394.86 7634.66 6675.00 4925.00 7980.69 88.00 67450.00 7760.11 7.80 210.00 6530.11 7029.00 6930.00 35250.00 7560.37 39.00 26400.63 46.00 50210.00 36380.04 8260.00 Mar-06 216.00 6374.22 6.00 139.00 3960.20 296.00 7950.00 7240.29 7887.00 45900.00 55500.09 6.30 127.00 61260.07 84.69 5.00 LME cash RBI Rate (USD/tonne) USD/INR Monthly average 7462.14 7.01 360.05 310.00 36910.00 63150.33 298.00 59440.00 71250.00 4435.00 45520.72 48.00 4099.98 6196.70 266.87 207.25 149.55 172.80 387.15 327.40 Jan-10 343.00 40710.00 3225.00 66960.00 37210.84 84.43 6165.75 3614.41 44.00 38290.48 45.10 301.90 338.00 322.78 5102.00 7796.00 CNY/INR spot Dollar index Monthly average 6.95 Feb-06 216.00 24610.50 3055.00 71730.70 8414.90 291.67 314.50 214.00 54850.00 214.55 172.50 280.00 8880.78 4269.30 322.00 38480.42 40.00 69800.74 345.03 80.00 68120.00 61090.00 40720.00 46000.80 325.60 286.25 Jun-06 371.00 5390.00 May-06 328.00 61800.70 307.39 48.00 25900.50 311.00 62900.36 5.00 8065.60 Apr-07 303.00 8082.00 58000.00 23650.57 311.74 Open 60690.35 317.67 6966.69 7061.00 6990.00 7800.63 43.00 61440.80 304.00 4215.Non-agricultural commodities Copper prices Month Open MCX futures price (Rs/kg) High Low Mar-10 338.00 63890.00 58730.00 5390.05 216.00 7380.65 152.70 5.00 8010.80 331.01 81.00 7000.00 3045.73 265.00 6344.00 34140.00 3610.63 84.00 57740.84 7.50 153.92 43.25 7890.10 171.95 44.00 30100.15 225.82 5.00 8430.00 67820.00 7520.00 69300.75 6372.00 3155.00 54350.30 322. ICE.00 4330.96 225.00 70340.37 76.00 6732.86 89.30 Jan-09 155.34 40.00 67310.00 25400.25 305.00 3435.00 72900.00 49320.68 224.00 29800.00 8570.38 5.50 351.00 3110.50 188.00 50930.00 32370.21 82.50 375.38 72.00 74930.40 397.00 61390.00 7299.40 153.00 27400.69 3071.00 50100.00 5855.00 35720.00 8025.85 Apr-06 242.00 Jul-05 145.54 5013.44 39.00 68980.00 37910.00 6675.67 77.75 332.00 63750.00 67610.00 66010.71 80.00 7085.11 85.00 319.30 311.00 3669.45 328.00 May-05 136.00 7855.75 Oct-08 303.24 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 159 .30 195.00 64480.00 8549.45 343.00 3615.00 34450.00 Oct-05 167.00 7420.40 209.00 55040.70 8008.30 238.39 7602.00 75.53 78.90 Apr-05 137.00 67630.55 368.00 3449.00 7455.10 289.00 3790.35 252.00 7180.00 63160.00 69100.00 6900.41 73.55 290.00 32340.00 31140.09 7.00 6730.00 69880.15 171.10 371.40 Nov-06 336.00 4270.02 6587.00 Jan-06 203.27 77.00 7840.37 89.25 5765.50 7973.80 174.15 327.00 7935.61 82.00 6940.70 229.00 69700.54 46.00 4395.55 352.00 7060.00 3915.60 281.13 135.00 3224.00 46000.00 5719.00 65130.00 315.25 6225.00 46950.00 68340.39 5.43 7648.00 50200.00 66610.66 6.00 3912.77 304.55 88.00 7602.83 48.00 72800.20 335.45 Aug-06 348.00 36090.47 306.39 341.00 64000.93 8439.56 42.50 209.20 331.05 May-07 333.66 143.70 6990.00 3750.68 328.80 286.00 Sep-08 327.00 7645.34 7.00 59980.54 5.22 48.00 64720.63 44.79 317.00 59920.65 5.00 275.47 46.60 157.70 Open 7521.00 60540.69 5.00 4018.00 4830.00 37500.00 34610.17 84.00 5796.21 72.00 4780.44 39.40 360.72 5.00 33750.00 42700.58 83.95 4568.47 47.60 280.17 77.45 211.00 4865.00 64700.85 343.00 3319.00 6530.00 7695.00 5250.00 59990.00 4848.15 265.00 3710.00 8940.15 150.21 3524.

Cumulative open interest in all contracts at the month-end.5 6000 0 5000 4000 -0. Source: Exchanges’ websites 160 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 161 . Note: Vol and OI in lots.5 3000 2000 -1 1000 Apr 08 Mar 09 Jun 06 May 07 Jul 05 Aug 04 Oct 02 Sep 03 Dec 00 Nov 01 Feb 99 Jan 00 Apr 97 Mar 98 May 96 Jul 94 Jun 95 Aug 93 Oct 91 Sep 92 Dec 89 Nov 90 Feb 88 Feb 10 -1. Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month.LHS 8000 Chinese Wrought Copper Imports (100 tonnes) (LHS) 7000 Rolling Correlation prices vs LME stocks .Non-agricultural commodities Copper Mine Production 2009e SHFE China USA 6% 7% Peru 8% Others 45% Chile 34% Source: USGS. Chinese Imports & Rolling correlation of LME prices Vs Inventory 9000 1 LME futures (USD/tonne) .1 Year 0.5 0 Jan 89 Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Mar-10 2706875 28860 2677258 425778 9127818 387756 Feb-10 3006321 19109 2572386 414528 6443898 398950 Jan-10 2233714 26301 2267628 403863 8460164 386270 Dec-09 1840574 31609 1902413 403734 7038264 302750 Nov-09 2138686 30367 2020273 421021 7397160 357234 Oct-09 2293803 25854 2064646 408826 6620316 336118 Sep-09 2549646 24337 2032421 401290 12722510 305826 Aug-09 3130380 24446 1986494 402269 15452970 374320 Jul-09 2940752 33729 1960979 400338 19918484 448700 Jun-09 3148890 21583 2165255 401240 15306970 426042 May-09 2672464 26146 1870927 399933 13410360 404172 Apr-09 2692519 20413 2350852 406387 17493624 402338 Mar-09 2175657 18590 2284177 411286 13334674 439066 Feb-09 1877051 15178 1702722 481490 8621472 324534 Jan-09 2141842 25082 2314469 491820 6108054 266182 Dec-08 1495127 22176 1908795 486962 8676564 343614 Nov-08 1847627 11984 2546098 550760 5197084 262170 Oct-08 1694342 14105 3004252 521086 2353198 159046 Sep-08 1044217 14983 2619189 496407 3274924 205972 Aug-08 920891 9315 1863668 463749 2815716 177792 Jul-08 914542 11792 2248126 450061 1313756 128874 Jun-08 769001 16182 1828570 450316 1589422 146068 May-08 896748 10514 1724399 444647 1747730 160086 Apr-08 1032376 11164 2004746 467061 2037268 149586 Mar-08 1007753 9144 1960112 486002 3049558 154856 Feb-08 1378689 13275 2231546 497810 2665180 182148 Jan-08 1276483 12604 2335854 481440 5158030 175908 Dec-07 912928 15695 1424933 427225 5928002 183716 Nov-07 1159320 10949 2165031 430963 4227808 199102 Oct-07 1023183 16433 1735112 403830 1377392 131320 Sep-07 1007536 13682 1674178 393590 1698136 133956 Aug-07 1480144 12226 2214438 237662 3211484 138914 Jul-07 1225331 15565 1713515 243282 3896062 155206 Jun-07 1607857 13266 1739912 245422 3112020 126614 May-07 1672952 12807 1711033 250544 2181252 115830 Apr-07 1577270 10940 1661035 244262 2641610 120162 Mar-07 1280007 10035 1711176 239035 1526036 117194 Feb-07 1223224 11961 1538992 241525 734540 101622 Jan-07 1205754 22864 1751103 239883 1146412 96362 Dec-06 636579 19532 1289754 216457 610830 77744 Nov-06 871936 18552 1516229 224000 701874 75848 Oct-06 539737 11657 1320963 217759 304364 64456 Sep-06 492788 7330 1580518 223339 1015788 70904 Aug-06 572901 6606 1472340 223185 1303582 85376 Jul-06 503552 4508 1238460 217765 1191158 56888 Jun-06 660822 5323 1398156 225347 1252768 83430 May-06 517588 7216 1706156 243177 765734 86976 Apr-06 278370 6368 1785516 247115 1085446 84036 Mar-06 115344 5242 1848574 251178 1062264 108698 Feb-06 70652 2643 1708272 237243 574948 97870 Jan-06 33695 2174 1729221 227253 677818 75868 Dec-05 31556 2178 - - 1271624 105788 Nov-05 37605 2855 - - 1634112 134036 Oct-05 22505 2209 - - 948686 121872 Sep-05 14942 1555 - - 1311456 126746 Aug-05 24040 1556 - - 1903172 155662 Jul-05 20362 2260 - - 2103100 163288 Jun-05 25566 647 - - 2895970 181948 May-05 5688 455 - - 2465668 214420 Apr-05 212 11 - - 2722214 157026 Apr 86 LME Mar 87 Copper trading activity Month MCX Source: LME. Note: e estimates Copper Consumption 2009 Others 25% China 38% Japan 5% North America 12% Europe 20% Source: USGS Copper Prices. China Customs Dept.