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Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2009)

Quiz 2 Solutions: November 3, 2009 Problem 2. (49 points) (a) (7 points) We start by recognizing that fX (x) = ex for x 0 and fY |X (y | x) = xexy for y 0. Furthermore, fX,Y (x, y ) = fX (x) fY |X (y | x). Substituting for fx (x) and fY |X (y | x) yields, fX,Y (x, y ) = xe(1+y)x , x 0, y 0 0, otherwise.

(b) (7 points)

The marginal PDF of Y can be found by integrating the joint PDF of X and Y .

fY (y ) = fX,Y (x, y )dx X = xe(1+y)x dx

0

fY (y ) =

1 , (1+y )2

0,

y0 otherwise.

(c) (7 points) We are asked to compute the PDF of the random variable X while conditioning on another random variable Y . The conditional PDF of X given that Y = 2 is fX |Y (x | 2) = fX,Y (x, 2) xe3x = 1 fY (2) 32 fX |Y (x | 2) = (d) (7 points) E[X | Y = 2] =

X

9xe3x , x 0 0, otherwise.

x fX |Y (x | 2)dx

0

=9 =9 2 = . 3 2 33

x2 e3x dx

Page 1 of 5

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2009)

(e) (7 points) In the new universe in which X = 2, we are asked to compute the conditional PDF of Y given the event Y 3. fY |X (y | 2) fY |X,Y 3 (y | 2) = .

P(Y 3 |

X = 2) We rst calculate the P(Y 3 | X = 2).

P(Y 3 | X = 2) =

3

fY |X (y | 2)dy

=

3

2e2y dy

= 1 FY |X (3 | 2) = 1 (1 e23 ) = e6 , where FY |X (3|2) is the CDF of an exponential random variable with = 2 evaluated at y = 3. Substituting the values of fY |X (y | 2) and P(Y 3 | X = 2) yields fY |X,Y 3 (y | 2) = 2e6 e2y , y 3 0, otherwise.

Alternatively, fY |X (y | 2) is an exponential random variable with = 2. To compute the conditional PMF fY |X,Y 3 (y | 2), we can apply the memorylessness property of an exponential variable. Therefore, this conditional PMF is also an exponential random variable with = 2, but it is shifted by 3. (f) (7 points) Lets dene Z = e2X . Since X is an exponential random variable that takes on non-negative values (X 0), Z 1. We nd the PDF of Z by rst computing its CDF. FZ (z ) = P(Z z ) = P(e2X z ) = P(2X ln z ) ln z = P(X ) 2 ln z = 1 e 2 = 1 eln z

1 2

FZ (z ) = 1 z 2 0,

1

z 1

z < 1

Page 2 of 5

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2009)

Dierentiating the CDF of Z yields the PDF

1 3 2 2z fZ (z ) = 0,

z 1

z < 1

Alternatively, you can apply the PDF formula for a strictly monotonic function of a continuous random variable. Recall if z = g (x) and x = h(z ), then dh

fZ (z ) = fX (h(z ))

.

dy

(z ) In this problem, z = e2x and x = 1 2 ln z . Note that fZ (z ) is nonzero for z > 1. Since X is an exponential random variable with = 1, fX (x) = ex . Thus, 1

1 ln z fZ (z ) = e 2

2z

1 1

= eln z 2 2z

1

3 = z 2 z 1,

2 where the second equality holds since the expression inside the absolute value is always positive for z 1. Problem 3. (10 points) (a) (5 points) The quantity E[X | Y ] is always: (i) A number. (ii) A discrete random variable. (iii) A continuous random variable. (iv) Not enough information to choose between (i)-(iii). If X and Y are not independent, then E[X | Y ] is a function of Y and is therefore a continuous random variable. However if X and Y are independent, then E[X | Y ] = E[X ] which is a number. (b) (5 points) The quantity E[E[X | Y, N ] | N ] is always: (i) A number. (ii) A discrete random variable. (iii) A continuous random variable. (iv) Not enough information to choose between (i)-(iii). If X , Y and N are not independent, then the inner expectation G(Y, N ) = E[X | Y, N ] is a function of Y and N . Furthermore E[G(Y, N ) | N ] is a function of N , a discrete random variable. If X , Y and N are independent, then the inner expectation E[X | Y, N ] = E[X ], which is a number. The expectation of a number given N is still a number, which is a special case of a discrete random variable. Page 3 of 5

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2009)

Problem 4. (25 points) (a) (i) (5 points)

Using the Law of Iterated Expectations, we have

1 E[X ] = E[E[X | Q]] = E[Q] = . 2 (ii) (5 points) X is a Bernoulli random variable with a mean p = p(1 p) = 1/4.

1 2

(b) (7 points)

We know that cov(X, Q) = E[XQ] E[X ]E[Q], so rst lets calculate E[XQ]:

1 E[XQ] = E[E[XQ | Q]] = E[QE[X | Q]] = E[Q2 ] = . 3 Therefore, we have cov(X, Q) = (c) (8 points)

Using Bayes Rule, we have

fQ|X (q | 1) = fQ (q )pX |Q (1 | q ) fQ (q )P(X = 1 | Q = q ) = , pX (1) P(X = 1) 0 q 1. 1 1 1 1 = . 3 2 2 12

P(X = 1 | Q = q ) = q,

and that for Bernoulli random variables

1

P(X = 1) = E[X ] = . 2

Thus, the conditional PDF of Q given X = 1 is

fQ|X (q | 1) = 1q 1/2 2q, 0 q 1, = 0, otherwise.

Problem 5. (21 points) (a) (7 points) P(S 1) = P(min{X, Y } 1) = P(X 1 and Y 1) = P(X 1)P(Y 1) = (1 FX (1))(1 FY (1)) = (1 (1))2 (1 0.8413)2 0.0252. Page 4 of 5

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2009)

(b) (7 points) Recalling Problem 2 of Problem Set 6, we have P(s S and L ) = P(s min{X, Y } and max{X, Y } ) = P(s X and s Y and X and Y ) = P(s X )P(s Y ) = (FX () FX (s))(FY ()FY (s)). (c) (7 points) Given that s s + , the event {s S s + , L + } is made up of the union of two disjoint possible events: {s X s + , Y + } {s Y s + , X + }. In other words, either S = X and L = Y , or S = Y and L = X . Because the two events are disjoint, the probability of their union is equal to the sum of their individual probabilities. Using also the independence of X and Y , we have P(s S s + , L + ) = P(s X s + , Y + ) +P(s y s + , X + ) = P(s X s + )P( Y + ) +P(s y s + )P( X + ) s+ + = fX (x)dx fY (y )dy s

s+ +

+ fY (y )dy fX (x)dx

s

Page 5 of 5

Fall 2010

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