You are on page 1of 5

PROLOGUE

EDITORIALS

EXPERTS' VIEWS

INDIAN ECONOMY

Coffee fundamentals - World and India (in `000' 60 kgs bags)
World
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Consumption
Exports
Total supply
Ending Stocks
India
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Consumption
Exports
Total Supply
Ending Stocks
Area under Production (000 Ha)
Average daily volatility of
MCX spot prices

2011-12e

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2001-02

25,832
139,084
102,413
131,025
104,967
267,335
31,343

24,418
137,908
104,473
132,497
107,455
266,799
26,847

35,663
126,781
99,581
135,871
101,736
262,025
24,418

28,647
133,403
96,831
123,742
99,476
258,881
35,663

33,597
121,753
96,809
127,033
96,479
252,159
28,647

31,254
131,819
97,470
124,107
102,839
260,543
33,597

20,875
117,521
1,478
26,319
90,937
139,874
22,618

40
4800
500
1500
3750
5340
90
-

140
5,100
550
1,650
4,100
5,790
40
405P

250
4,850
725
1,575
4,110
5,825
140
400

65
4,375
555
1,625
3,120
4,995
250
394

95
4,660
490
1,360
3,820
5,245
65
388

255
4,665
334
1,550
3,609
5,254
95
382

20
5,020
0
975
3,702
5,040
363
347

-

2.17%

1.66%

1.96%

2.09%

-

-

Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on July 29, 2011; P: Provisional; Market Year (India): October to September,
Source: USDA; Dept. of Agriculture, GOI; MCX

Coffee balance sheet 2011-12e - World (in `000' 60 kgs bags)
Country
Beginning
Stocks
Brazil
Vietnam
Indonesia
Colombia
India
Others
World Total

2,846
1,784
143
284
50
20,731
25,838

Supply
Production
54,500
18,725
9,000
9,000
5,125
42,734
139,084

Imports
0
106
200
740
700
100,667
102,413

Consumption

Demand
Exports

19,500
1,050
1,900
1,200
1,750
105,625
131,025

32,000
17,430
7,400
8,650
4,075
35,412
104,967

Ending
Stocks
5,846
2,135
43
174
50
23,095
31,343

Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on July 29, 2011;
Source: USDA

296 Commodity Insights Yearbook 2011

178_300_CYIB_2011_Agri_final.indd 296

1/26/2012 1:29:48 AM

59 Note: e .850 0 0 18.376 4.30 0.260 0 3.455 4.700 0 4.08 0.DATABANK .86 0.48 0. Source: USDA.300 5.08 1.330. IFM.44 1.455 1.660 0 0 0 4.336.075 5.85 44.38 1.49 2008-09 Brazil Russia India China South Africa 53.02 0.075 0 0 19.74 140.00 1.725 425 400 51. Population figures for 2011-12 is arrived at by calculating CAGR from 2004-05 to 2010-11.825 0 0 0 4.330.02 0.14 49.BRICS Nations fact sheet (in `000' 60 kgs bags) World Production Import Export Consumption Total Supply Population (in million) Per capita availability (kg) Per capita consumption (kg) 2011-12e Brazil Russia India China South Africa 54.ending stock.com/in/en 178_300_CYIB_2011_Agri_final.02 0.86 0.26 0.05 16.346 4.189.30 0.081 3.09 0. Int.93 0.02 0.01 141.390 4.410 5.500 4.04 48.33 1.31 1.02 0.300 1.750 450 425 57.47 137.01 0.75 1.341.500 0 5.000 0 4.91 1. World Bank.173.338.01 0.120 0 0 18.500 0 5.800 0 4.300 5.07 0.16 1.665 0 0 0 4.254 300 430 190. 2011. data retrieved on July 29.720 4.52 2009-10 Brazil Russia India China South Africa 44.75 0.NON-AGRI COMMODITIES Coffee .com / www.125 0 0 0 4.43 138.11 1.01 0.50 2006-07 Brazil Russia India China South Africa 46.625 425 400 201.360 300 410 47.825 320 330 56.750 4.mcxindia.34 140.125 0 0 0 4.995 320 330 198.Prices 400 2800 Mumbai Prices 300 2100 200 1400 100 700 0 0 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Source:Agmarknet & USDA. In `000' 60 kgs bags unless otherwise specified.780 0 3.100 0 4.04 1.75 1. Indian prices Rs/kg.00 16.461 4.820 0 0 17.341 4.36 1.00 17.91 1.52 2010-11 Brazil Russia India China South Africa 54.40 2007-08 Brazil Russia India China South Africa 39.78 14.86 0.875 450 425 206.030 3.83 16.28 0.70 1.27 0.375 0 0 0 3.50 5.01 0.875 450 425 203.29 0.410 1.500 4.520 490 300 410 27.410 334 300 430 29.86 0.245 300 410 196.300 1.321.49 5.40 5.48 0.455 555 320 330 31.208.93 0.475 0 3.000 0 4.09 0.09 0.pwc.39 1.75 0.59 5.550 300 430 54.10 139.09 0. prices Rs/kg www.AGRI COMMODITIES DATABANK .52 5.346 4.01 0.source estimates provided by USDA.17 1.85 49.11 15.075 1.300 700 450 425 32.93 1.72 49.129.520 1.52 5.87 0.075 750 425 400 29.02 0.01 0.290 0 3.indd 297 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour 297 1/26/2012 1:29:48 AM .28 1.075 0 0 19.166.300 700 450 425 32. ES .97 1.50 1.609 0 0 16.750 450 425 57.520 5.87 1.148.74 1.61 49.300 0 4.87 0. CIA World Fact Book Coffee: Ending Stock & Prices in 000 tonnes Prices India ES 500 3500 World ES (in 50x) Int.59 1.

0 55.PROLOGUE EDITORIALS EXPERTS' VIEWS INDIAN ECONOMY Coffee select state/district-wise production in India (in `000' tonnes) States/Districts 2010-11 2009-10# 2008-09# 2007-08# 2006-07# 74.0 25.50 19.9 39.9 13.15 111.3 223.17 5.50 16.70 71. GOI Kerala 99.15 2.0 3.0 48.2 230.33 6.82 1.20 24.00 49.2 276.05 5.78 70.30 - 4. of Agriculture.0 45.0 66.12 5.03 Kerala Wyanad Travancore Nelliampathies Sub Total 55.23 2.02 29. # : Post-Monsoon Estimates Source: Coffee Board.Including Mysore.indd 298 1/26/2012 1:29:48 AM .15 2.65 1.19 4.00 49.0 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Dec-06 Nov-06 1.18 0.75 114.0 25.10 2.48 3.75 4.5 31.00 8.0 71.00 262.28 8.5 0.5 141.75 0.5 4.00 Karnataka Chikmagalur Kodagu* Hassan Sub Total Grand Total (India) Note: * .00 18.88 57.35 205.00 4.5 4.17 63.5 106.5 115.7 71.70 108.5 36.25 47.5 25.58 72.00 289.8 49.3 31.0 4.0 5.35 5.05 2.5 97.0 21.43 213.5 4.01 - 3.5 81.2 Oct-06 Sep-06 Aug-06 Jul-06 Jun-06 May-06 Apr-06 Source: Dept.0 112.20 40.0 101.55 107.88 0.15 2.92 - 5.50 25.13 5.0 4.51 7.0 44.10 7.37 28.9 24.6 13.0 3.50 16.0 4.68 2.5 35.0 177.85 3.98 206.28 - 302.0 230.03 5.0 11.5 69.15 3.20 3.05 214.48 Tamil Nadu Pulneys Nilgiris Shevroys (Salem) Anamalais (Coimbatore) Sub Total 6.10 3.19 0.5 105.83 5.88 59.9 102.65 49.95 7.7 40.23 Non Traditional Areas Andhra Pradesh & Orissa North Eastern Region Sub Total Non Conventional Areas 5.1 169.00 288.34 110.18 191.63 8.90 5.2 298 Commodity Insights Yearbook 2011 178_300_CYIB_2011_Agri_final.33 - 4.65 7.7 195.3 203.43 1. Coffee state-wise monthly arrivals (in tonnes) Coffee state-wise monthly arrivals (in tonnes) Coffee state-wise monthly arrivals (in tonnes) Month Kerala Month Kerala Month Apr-11 Mar-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 Sep-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 May-10 Apr-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 42.5 53.5 34.09 0.0 74.10 18.5 4.70 19.33 59.60 293.0 96.23 65.

source estimates.indd 299 A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour 299 1/26/2012 1:29:48 AM . Source: USDA Consumption 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12e 0 20000 EU-27 United States 40000 Brazil 60000 Japan 80000 Russia 100000 120000 140000 Others Note: e .source estimates.DATABANK . Source: USDA www.source estimates. Source: USDA Imports 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12e 0 20000 EU-27 United States 40000 Japan 60000 Russia 80000 Algeria 100000 120000 100000 120000 Others Note: e .com / www.NON-AGRI COMMODITIES Data of top 5 countries (`000' tonnes) Production 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12e 0 50000 Brazil Vietnam Indonesia 100000 Colombia India 150000 Other Note: e . Source: USDA Exports 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12e 0 20000 Brazil Vietnam 40000 Colombia 60000 Indonesia 80000 India Others Note: e .AGRI COMMODITIES DATABANK .mcxindia.pwc.source estimates.com/in/en 178_300_CYIB_2011_Agri_final.

Kaushal Nagar (in Rs/Kg) Month Monthly average Dec-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 Sep-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 May-10 Apr-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Dec-06 Nov-06 Oct-06 Sep-06 Aug-06 Jul-06 Jun-06 May-06 Apr-06 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 80.040 95.125 124.547 147.87 90.316 192.32 1.13 3.52 1. N/A-Not Available.72 1.19 69.985 99.00 93.25 N/A 103.950 175.308 226.03 66.82 70.97 1.19 102.10 179.685 91.03 72.300 9.80 231.97 2.40 173.83 82.07 97.402 298.47 2.138 315.75 88.971 37.67 2.00 N/A 85.791 119.50 180.19 2.90 232.784 462.787 313.166 136.899 249.03 2.67 148.560 157.37 2.30 1.23 81.52 1.60 1.521 128.00 N/A 92.121 308.88 3.17 110.59 3.212 379.70 93.40 71.33 63.37 1.470 80.31 71.45 64.00 55.00 67.60 226.133 409.090 107.00 86.00 N/A N/A 99.36 79.581 125.00 115.51 75.28 91.516 208.60 215.70 56.837 185.00 121.49 2.68 2.50 174.560 93.00 114. Ministry of Commerce and Industry.216 127.02 90.152 526.95 74.54 1.38 1.17 101.00 61.503 250.557 378.880 95.90 64.104 169.42 4.00 105.578 73.279 240.80 224.00 57.50 92.50 144.00 151.887 152.01 57.75 1.381 503.245 402.293 291.64 2.432 118.27 2.851 2.053 136.41 2.00 N/A 125.80 104.46 68.00 106.373 297.32 1.30 81.73 74.586 129.00 78.10 64.434 94.05 3.44 71.41 2.97 83.17 80.79 78.712 642.70 173.00 151.70 230.22 113.25 109.14 N/A 71.84 2.48 62.736 94.82 2.50 190.80 205.457 121.56 97.77 56.66 77.939 289.17 91.84 2.00 82.107 319.905 348.084 140.30 103.39 58.00 173.33 70.indd 300 1/26/2012 1:29:49 AM .840 100.833 127.200 245.24 80.941 151.645 318.00 120.00 172.00 109.819 303.53 108.40 173.22 2.862 339.60 69.655 194.50 62.568 105.51 71.30 216.96 93.90 228.342 275.60 61.50 72.244 130.28 69.80 60.10 97.17 N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T Average monthly domestic prices (Rs/kg) Month’s Low Arabica Cherry Robusta Cherry N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 77.20 76.00 N/A 88.08 66.50 68.31 67.00 120.405 317.39 2.10 102.39 1.30 73.50 180.194 165.90 174.80 62.70 205.373 303.132 413 355 N/A 25 10 25 5 20 16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Note: N/T: Not Traded.244 154.340 157.50 80.834 92.312 556.63 77.50 82.00 2.97 96.41 83.917 146.52 2.91 86.72 73.738 155.660 156.18 78.70 210.085 206.55 2.00 116.00 151.249 98.00 N/A 83.29 1.04 71.57 66.00 102.30 240.00 62.804 257.169 37.80 228.67 80.083 20.94 76.70 56.89 68.528 162.83 88.00 96.90 112.260 419.74 1.247 150.50 93.41 100.70 1.928 84.15 63.096 86.878 85.59 2.07 3.82 2.36 Volume in lots^ Open interest in lots^^ 245.004 150.90 228.163 140.596 351.06 N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T Month’s high N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 82.390 128.25 122.81 64.40 2.277 103.640 319.90 64.912 100.82 88.249 365.20 229.20 66.45 2.134 76.40 174.62 2.90 102.70 63.47 83.50 54.616 88.32 2.97 3.90 229.54 2.33 2.60 72.439 177.00 151.00 237. Source: Agmarknet.904 117.14 70.712 123.308 160.72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Volume in lots^ Open interest in lots^^ 236.128 141.658 362.06 117.00 96.60 99.42 1.20 180. Future prices are for near month continuos futures contract.50 WPI of Coffee 236.24 66.70 80.20 76.836 369.30 76.04 70.78 100.95 2.50 198.735 12.88 3.21 2.543 99.332 286.67 128.00 3.80 78.40 216.91 70.040 91.032 109.70 227.093 144.21 77.85 59.49 1.116 175.73 1.70 80.81 3.400 376.433 48.40 238.47 67.85 75.10 180.542 118.14 70.42 88.00 96.480 169.33 68.489 89.95 2.47 72.140 1.50 112.33 80.413 354.00 73.PROLOGUE EDITORIALS EXPERTS' VIEWS INDIAN ECONOMY Coffee prices and trading activity MCX Spot prices.90 3.28 2.23 2.83 83.856 380.564 109.08 1.11 92.870 100.189 122.76 1.80 224.645 554.08 79.090 232.40 60.61 2.11 70.50 213.00 97.90 76.36 78.20 63.355 316.50 173.779 459.90 74.52 2.134 151.992 103.27 69.130 89.60 193.80 236.16 78.336 476.344 213.02 81.031 515.70 75.78 2.50 81.00 102.13 2.233 257.04 59.77 98.30 172.99 2.00 N/A 101.633 81.40 216.50 173.369 169.18 2.03 3.56 1.40 73.00 89.074 146.30 1.50 102.239 239.29 2.02 82.60 Coffee Arabica NYBOTICE futures Closing price (USD/kg) 5.63 3.948 246.00 105.59 100.131 Coffee Robusta NYSELIFFE London futures Closing price (USD/kg) 2.50 79.14 92.00 98.30 168.124 70.90 109.50 95.049 321.90 228.118 165.59 2.557 154.544 163.30 1.40 206.47 1.76 72.671 110.74 102.70 214.78 2.40 209.33 79.572 142.00 N/A N/A 118. Exchanges' websites 300 Commodity Insights Yearbook 2011 178_300_CYIB_2011_Agri_final.90 93.096 184.992 133.407 137.485 136.00 77.398 728.57 74.48 4.10 84.347 89.11 75.08 88.95 N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T N/T 168.00 2.00 111.76 N/A N/A 92.29 4.84 59.11 95.440 135.00 93.89 3.488 235.170 479.74 79.524 126.610 492.540 82.826 122.50 152.40 73.47 2.19 2.00 110.48 2.340 1.258 339.15 69.223 155.07 70.70 67.70 62.38 71.327 87.798 156.90 60.29 1.43 75.40 151.285 676.00 87.757 481.115 1.68 72.111 343.459 116.99 2.031 503.00 N/A 76.24 1.99 69.41 71.63 102.50 102.305 225.Wholesale Price Index.90 83.70 76.75 71.82 106.80 241.40 59. WPI .60 68.90 225.50 81.44 77.70 101.010 111.00 83.934 125.10 110.730 429.44 62.71 60.397 158.41 68.