Carbon Management and The Importance of Thinking Outside the Box

Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University
June 2013

Energy is central to human well-being World needs affordable and clean energy for all Clean energy overcomes sustainability limits

Atmospheric CO2 level must be stabilized Fossil carbon is not running out

Room for 21st century growth Growth Relative to 2000
18 16 14
Closing the Gap

Fractional Change

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000
Plus Population Growth 1% energy intensity reduction Constant growth 1.5% energy intensity reduction 2.0% energy intensity reduction

2020

2040

Year

2060

2080

2100

Constant Growth 1.6% Energy intensity drop 1%/yr

Plus Population Growth to 10 billion Energy Intensity drop 1.5%/yr

Closing the Gap at 2% Energy Intensity drop 2% per year

Future energy demand: 15 – 100 TW
•  15 TW: Current demand is a low-end prediction
○  Extreme increases in efficiency ○  Move away from production of physical goods ○  Economic collapse (?)

•  50 TW: Business as usual
○  With large drop in energy intensity
•  High efficiency, world wide transition to a service economy

○  No new big energy drivers ○  Economic stagnation (?)

•  100 TW: Past performance
○  Energy consumption grew twelve fold between 1900 - 2000

Where do we find 50 - 100 TW?
4

Fossil Fuels Are Plentiful

•  Coal resources alone could be 3000 to 5000 Gt C
○  400 Gt consumed since 1800 ○  annual production of 8 Gt/yr of fossil carbon

•  Beware of “resource” vs. “proven reserve”

Curve fitting of past production does not make the known resources go away

5

Coal Fields in the US

anthracite

bituminous

bituminous

subbituminous
6

lignite

coking coal Source: wikipedia

The change in Gas Scenarios

7

Fossil fuels are fungible …
Coal Shale Tar Oil Natural Gas Refining Synthesis Gas Carbon Diesel Jet Fuel Ethanol Methanol DME Hydrogen Heat Electricity

… and they are not running out
8

Environmental Limits – Not Resource Limits
Stabilize CO2 concentration – not CO2 emissions
800 700
CO2 (ppm)
Continued Exponential Growth Constant Emissions after 2010 100% of 2010 rate

600 500 400 300 200 1900
Hazardous Level 450 ppm

33% 10% 0%

Preindustrial Level 280 ppm

1950

2000
9

2050

year

2100

2150

2200

Fossil carbon sequestration

Fossil carbon Mobilization of carbon

Carbon inputs and outputs must match

Environment

7

Sequestration Fixation of carbon

Total carbon is conserved Maintain or shrink the size of the carbon pool
10

The personal carbon allowance
~ 30 tons for every person will reach 450 ppm Permanent allotment

Picture from emercedes online blog: http://www.emercedesbenz.com/Aug08/08_001327_Mercedes_Benz_Econic_Semi_Trailer_Tanker_Trucks_Enter_Service_At_London_Farnborough_Airport.html

11

Without Carbon Capture and Storage all fossil fuels will have to be phased out

The allowable CO2 concentration limits the effective resource size

Roughly: Emission of 4 Gt C raises atmospheric CO2 by 1 ppm
12

The big three energy options
Solar energy Nuclear energy

Fossil energy (not necessarily coal)
13

Cost effective, but cannot operate not at full scale

14

Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie

900 Gt C total
Past centuries

1 trillion tons of CO2
550 ppm
15

Removing the climate constraint
5000 Gt C total

Past

16

Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from concentrated sources
Capture from power plants, cement, steel, refineries, etc.

CO2 extraction from air

Permanent & safe disposal
Geological Storage Ocean disposal Mineral carbonate disposal

CCS is in trouble with the public

CCS is still developing

NEW FIELDS NEED NEW IDEAS

18

Challenging Nascent Orthodoxies
•  Economies of size or economies of numbers?
○  New technologies need to start small

•  Sequestration is not just geological sequestration
○  Do not put all eggs in one basked

•  Carbon dioxide capture is not for old coal plants
○  Carbon is fungible

New fields must be given room to develop
19

Example I

FINDING THE RIGHT SCALE

20

Retrofits have to be big and low in cost

21

Spot the low cost power plant

22

Scaling: Surface to volume ratio
•  Surface to volume ratios can help or hurt •  Structurally size tends to hurt

23

Separating Scale from Size
•  Power plants are big, cars are small
○  100s of MW vs. 100 kW

•  Yet, cars operate on a bigger scale
○  Cars produced in a single year have a power capacity comparable to the US power grid.
•  8 million times 100 kW = 800 GW

24

Economies of Size vs. Mass Production
•  Car engines are $10-$20/kW
○  Power plants are $1000/kW or more

•  Operating life of a car engine is 5000 hours
○  Extends to 20,000 if treated well

•  Efficiency is comparable to power plant
○  If operating at optimal conditions

•  Operating large numbers is expensive
○  Large units require less labor

25

Why did the Large Power Plant Win?
•  Power companies pay their operators •  Car companies are paid by the car operator •  Number of operators scales with number of units

26

True in many industries
•  Mining Trucks

Cost of the driver matters

27

Massively parallel infrastructures
•  Trend to smaller units is possible and on its way ○  Nuclear plants are modularizing
•  Avoid the complexity of siting at large scale

○  Chlorine production is modularizing
•  Demonstrating full automation •  Smaller units pose smaller risks •  Eliminate transport of dangerous goods

○  Biomass gasification
•  Distributed resource difficult to transport

28

Economies  of  Mass   Economies  of  Scale          vs. Manufacturing α Cost = C0 ⋅ (size) , α < 1
Monolithic  Plant  

Unit  cost  drops  by  β  for  every   doubling  of  produc5on  

     Modular             Plant  

Total  cost   = C0 ⋅ N •   Empirically:    α   ≅ 1 + log2 β •   Automa5on  can  eliminate  personnel  cost   •   Small  scale  allows  for  a  modular  approach   •   Focus  is  on  tying  informa5on  networks  to  machinery  
29

1+ log2 β

§  Images courtesy of Wikipedia

The autonomous car

http://wot.motortrend.com/google-autonomous-car-testing-fleet-adds-lexus-rx-450h-logs-300000-miles-245621.html

30

Economies of scale exact a big price
•  Individually engineered units •  Field assembled units •  High risk in making changes •  High hurdle to entry into market •  Slow turnaround •  Slow learning

31

Small, modular, mass produced units •  Allow rapid entry into a new market •  Promote learning and fast improvements •  Adapt to changing markets and needs

Necessary ingredients for a successful new technology
32

Shorter life cycle has advantages
•  Shorter life cycle reduces risks •  Smaller unit size lowers piloting costs •  Shorter development times lead to faster progress •  Lower unit cost encourages experimentation
20 Generations from Henry Ford 2 Generations from Thomas Alva Edison

33

Example II

NOT JUST GEOLOGICAL SEQUESTRATION ALTERNATE CARBON SINKS

34

Ocean Disposal

Dilution as a solution?
35

Underground Injection

Enhanced Oil Recovery Deep Coal Bed Methane Storage Time Saline Aquifers Safety Cost

VOLUME Perception & Accounting

Concentrated disposal
36

statoil

Mineral Sequestration: Accelerating Natural Weathering

Mg3Si2O5(OH)4 + 3CO2(g) → 3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 +2H2O(l) +63kJ/mol CO2

•  Safe and permanent storage option •  High storage capacity •  Permanence on a geological time scale •  Closure of the natural carbon cycle

Stable Waste Disposal Question of cost and size

37

Minerals are available
For solids: calcium or magnesium silicates Molar abundance in the Earth’s crust Calcium Magnesium Carbon 2.0% 2.1% 0.035%

38

Peridotite and Serpentinite Ore Bodies
n n n n n

n n nn

n n n nn n nn nn n

n

n

n nn n n n nn n n nn n n n n nnn n n n n nn n nn n

nn n n n

n

n

nn n nn nn n n n n n n nn n n
n n

n n

n n n n n nn n

n n nn n n n n n

nn n n n n n n n nnn n

n

n

n

n nn nn n

n

n n

n n nn n n n nn nn

n n
n

nn

n nn

nn n

n n n n n n nn n n n

n nn n n

n nn
n n n

n
nn n

n nn n

n nn n n n nn n nn n n n n n
n

n n nn n n n n n n

n

n n n n n

n n

n

n

n n

Magnesium resources far exceed world fossil fuel supplies

39

Basalts are far more common

LIP: Large Igneous Province

40

Wikipedia Commons

Iceland – CarbFix Project

CO2 injection and monitoring area

CO2 from condensers

Steam, gases and water from deep and hot (>240 °C) geothermal wells

Hellisheiði geothermal power plant
41

Energy States of Carbon
Carbon The ground state of carbon is a mineral carbonate

400 kJ/mole

Carbon Dioxide
60...180 kJ/mole

Carbonate

42

Challenges for Mineral Carbonation
•  Cost
○  R&D to speed up the complex chemistry ○  Find by-products, or become the by-product •  Carbonate tailings, use carbonic acid for extraction of values ○  Find ways to live with slower speeds
•  Underground mineralization •  Air exposure of minerals

•  Mining scale
○  Remote locations are preferable ○  Need nearby sources of CO2 (air)

•  Mining impacts and mined materials
○  Trace elements ○  Mined materials can be hazardous ○  Different outlook because this is environmental remediation
43

Belvidere Mountain, Vermont Serpentine Tailings •  Asbestos and Serpentine •  Spontaneous carbonation (Dipple et al.)

44

Example III

BEYOND RETROFITS: ADVANCED PLANT DESIGNS NATURAL GAS SCRUBBING AIR CAPTURE
45

Retrofits won’t work
•  sequestration cost becomes part of coal cost
○  $30/t CO2 > $100t coal
•  Plus: reduced energy efficiency

○  Effective coal cost goes from $30/t to > $160/t

Natural gas power cannot be ignored Conventional scrubbing even more difficult
46

Focus on next generation plants
•  Zero emissions
○  No release to the atmosphere

•  Ultra-high efficiency
○  ○  ○  ○  Fuel cell technology Hydrogen and/or electricity Synthetic fuels CO2 as by-product where possible

•  Gasification, oxyfuel
○  Entry point for advanced designs ○  NGCC plants are strong competitors

Applies to natural gas as well
47

Boudouard Reaction

48

Air capture provides options
•  Maintaining access to fossil fuels
○  Air capture as part of CCS ○  Focus on dispersed and mobile sources ○  Complementing power plant capture

•  Air capture with non-fossil energy
○  Allowing liquid fuels in the transportation sector ○  Synthetic fuel production from CO2 and H2O ○  Requires cheap non-fossil energy

•  Air capture for drawing down CO2
○  First emissions must be stopped or canceled out ○  Provides no excuse for procrastination

49

Air capture is the capture of last resort

•  Can handle emissions from any and all sources •  Sets upper limit on cost of carbon management •  Assures feasibility of zero carbon scenarios •  Provides a solution to the risk of leaking storage
50

Can bootstrap from small scales
•  Small existing CO2 markets make it possible to start ○  Without government support for huge pilot plants ○  With a profitable learning phase ○  Learning on a small scale ○  Basic R&D would be helpful

51

Separation of emissions and mitigation
•  Create an industry that wants CO2 reductions •  Foster competition, on an international scale •  Drive down costs of alternatives

Create a world wide carbon price
52

After initial work at both Los Alamos and Columbia GRT* demonstrated air capture in Tucson in 2007** Klaus Lackner Allen Wright Gary Comer

Proof of principle

þ
*Now **KSL

Kilimanjaro Energy, Inc. is an advisor the company
53

Demonstration unit

54

Not your run of the mill separation problem
Sherwood’s Law for minerals ~ $10/ton of ore

U from seawater

Air capture aspirations

55

SOURCE: National Research Council (1987)

Artificial kelp to absorb uranium from seawater
•  Passive, long term exposure to water
○  Braids of sorbent covered buoyant plastic ○  Anchored to the floor ○  Replaced initially active systems

•  Low energy sorbent
○  Laminar flow over sorbent ○  Uptake is limited by boundary layer transport

•  Regeneration
○  After harvesting the strings

•  Gross violation of Sherwood’s Law
○  Cost estimates range from $200 to $1200/kg ○  Sherwood $3 million/kg

wikipedia

56

Air capture

flue gas separation

•  APS Study (Socolow et al.)
○  Too difficult, too costly, not practical ○  $600 per ton of CO2

•  House et al.
○  Dilution is too extreme ○  Separation technology cannot be extrapolated ○  Second law efficiency unavoidably deteriorates

•  Conclusion: Don’t try to extrapolate
○  Conventional technologies will have difficulties ○  Too much of an extrapolation ○  Extrapolation raises costs and uncertainties

Need non-conventional approach from the start
57

Technical challenges of air capture
•  Move huge volumes of air cheaply
○  This is the term Sherwood warned you about

•  Make good contact at low pressure drops
○  Like a tree, like a lung, passive designs are favored

•  Avoid water capture
○  There is far more water than CO2 in the air

•  Avoid emissions of entrained liquid, vapors etc.
○  Need to clean up the air

•  Avoid expensive energy
○  Low grade heat, water evaporation, wind energy

•  Find ways of bootstrapping from small niche markets
○  Start small and grow

•  Take advantage of learning
58

Out-of-the-box thinking
No extrapolation…

… from here … … to there
Start from first principles and air capture becomes feasible
59

Still plenty of CO2 in air
1 m3of Air
40 moles of gas, 1.16 kg wind speed 6 m/s

mv 2 = 20 J 2
0.016 moles of CO2
CO2

produced by 10,000 J of gasoline 0.4 liter/m3 of CO2

Volumes are drawn to scale

60

Thermodynamics works
Theoretical minimum free energy requirement for the regeneration is the free energy of mixing Gas pressure P0 CO2 partial pressure Px Denoted as (P0, Px)
CO2 (P0, P0)

Separation Process involving
Air (P0, P1)

Sorbents Membranes etc.

CO2 depleted air (P0, P2) 𝑃

0 − 𝑃2 𝑃1 𝑃1 𝑃0 − 𝑃1 𝑃2 𝑃2 𝑃0 − 𝑃1 𝑃0 − 𝑃2 𝑃0 𝑃0 − 𝑃1 ∆𝐺 = 𝑅𝑇 &' - ln −   ' - ln +   ' -' ln 2   𝑃1 − 𝑃2 𝑃0 𝑃0 𝑃1 − 𝑃2 𝑃0 𝑃0 𝑃0 𝑃0 𝑃1 − 𝑃2 𝑃0 − 𝑃2

Specific irreversible processes have higher free energy demands
61

Air Capture Free Energy
60 Free Energy Requirement (kJ/ mol) 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 Exit Partial Pressure (Pa)
62

Thermodynamic Limit Single Sorbent

40

Sorbent Strength
depends logarithmically on CO2 concentration at collector exit ΔG = RT log P
0

Free Energy (kJ/mole)

-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 100

350K Air 300K Power plant

1000
63

10000

100000

CO2 Partial Pressure (ppm)

Inspiration comes from nature

64

Considered many different options
•  Contacting
○  Convection towers, fans, passive designs

•  Liquid and solid sorbents
○  Solutions and slurries ○  Packed beds, packings, and filter boxes

•  Different sorbents
○  Hydroxides and carbonates ○  Amines and physisorption

•  Regeneration
○  ○  ○  ○  High temperature calcination routes Low grade heat, thermal swings Pressure swings, combined with thermal swings Electrochemistry
65

Moisture swing: Serendipity
•  We were in a position to compare and see
○  easier regeneration
•  just add water, no heat losses, no chemical losses

○  suitability for passive systems
•  flexible sorbent designs can handle low recovery rates •  no emissions that would require processing exit air stream

○  compatibility with pressure and thermal swing
•  Combined with other swings, moisture lowers the temperature and/or pressure amplitude •  Prevents thermal damage to sorbents (100,000 cycles)

○  water acts as cheap fuel
•  Direct energy demand is greatly reduced

66

Free energy from water evaporation
•  Water evaporation can drive CO2 capture •  Enthalpy is balanced by cooling the large air volume (ΔT ≤ 3K)

Separation Process
Dry air Liquid Water

CO2 enriched air

involving Sorbents Membranes etc.

Moist air

Free energy of water evaporation at a relative humidity RH: ΔG = RT ln(P/Psat) = RT ln(RH)
67

Ball park estimate: 2.5 kJ/mol 140 MJ/m3 @ 20¢/m3 0.5¢/kWh

Anionic Exchange Resins
Solid carbonate “solution” Quaternary ammonium ions form strong-base resin

•  Positive ions fixed to polymer matrix
○  Negative ions are free to move ○  Negative ions are hydroxides, OH-

•  Dry resin loads up to bicarbonate
○  OH- + CO2 à HCO3(hydroxide à bicarbonate)

•  Wet resin releases CO2 to carbonate
○  2HCO3- à CO3-- + CO2 + H2O

GRT photo

Moisture driven CO2 swing
68

Membrane material thin sheets
Snowpure electrochemical membrane (1mm thick) Polypropylene matrix with embedded fine resin particles (25µm) Quaternary ammonium cations Carbonate/bicarbonate form 1.7 mol/kg charge equivalent

69

The Moisture Swing
Absorption Isotherm – Dry
1 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.9 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.82 0.8 1 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.9
CO3 Langmuir
CO3 Exp

Saturation

OH Exp

OH Langmuir

0
Tao Wang et al

200

400

600

800

CO2 Concentration  (ppm)
70

The Moisture Swing
Desorption Isotherm - Wet
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
0 2 4 6 8
24 Celsius Exp

35 Celsius Exp

Saturation

45 Celsius Exp

24 Celsius Langmuir
35 Celsius Langmuir 45 Celsius Langmuir

Equilibrium   CO2 Partial   Pressure  (kPa)
Tao Wang et al
71

The moisture swing

72

CO2 loading at constant PCO2 = 40Pa and varying PH2O

K. S. Lackner

∆𝐺0 (𝑇, ℎ𝑟 ) =  𝑎 + 𝑏(1 + 𝛽ℎ𝑟 )ℎ𝑟 +  𝑐 (𝑇 − 𝑇0 )
73

The standard free energy change

74

Water vs. carbon dioxide

− + + CO2− 3 (R )2 ∙ 𝑥H2 O + CO2 (g )  ↔    2(HCO3 R ∙ 𝑦H2 O) + (𝑥 − 2𝑦 − 1)H2 O(g )  

∆𝑛 = 𝑥 − 2𝑦 − 1  

75

CO2 partial pressure vs. resin water loading
T= 25°C

First data to show dependence on resin’s water loading rather than water vapor partial pressure
76

The moisture swing design
•  Boost partial pressure of CO2
○  from 40 Pa to 5,000 Pa (50 kPa) ○  use water to pay for the “compression”

•  Flexible design
○  add pressure swing ○  add thermal swing features ○  preprocess for moisture removal

•  First stage in multistep process
○  utilize very cheap chemical potential
77

Multiple options to create pure CO2
•  Options
○  Second stage physisorption ○  Vacuum extraction ○  Washing with carbonate

•  Combines with other technologies

Optionality complicates analysis, but lowers risk and raises flexibility
78

Make the air do your work
○  Air carries kinetic energy
•  sufficient to move the air

○  Air carries thermal energy
•  sufficient to evaporate water

○  Air carries chemical potential
•  out of equilibrium with water •  sufficient to compress CO2 two hundredfold

Take advantage of the resource you have
79

The energy cost of active fanning
14 12 10 GJ/ton 8 6 4 2 0
0 100 200 300 ppm removed
80

100 Pa 250 Pa 500 Pa

400

Blower efficiency not included

Cost of air capture?
•  Cost C as function of dilution D = 1/P C = C1 D + C2 + C3 log D •  Constants depend on technology choice
○  C1 : contacting the air stream
•  Passive system sitting in the wind

○  C2 : handling of sorbent material (transport etc.)
•  Likely small, can be very much limited

○  C3 : sorbent regeneration

•  Not much different from flue gas scrubbing
81

Matching air drag to CO2 capture
•  Balance the FILTER design
○  Capture momentum (viscous drag) and CO2 (diffusion)
•  Design for a velocity v and a pressure drop ΔP •  Diffusion (and turbulent transport) is similar for momentum and CO2 •  High air-side resistance – strong sorbent limit – thick diffusion layer ○  Maximizes CO2 uptake for a given pressure drop ○  Underutilizes sorbent material •  Low air-side resistance – weak sorbent limits – thin diffusion layer ○  Maximizes sorbent utilization ○  Reduced CO2 uptake for a given pressure drop

○  Match air-side transport resistance to sorbent side resistance

•  Optimal pressure drop is O(ρv2 )

○  Free to choose v: Choose a low flow velocity v through filter ○  For wind ½ ρw2 > ρv2

Novel design strategy for air capture: decouple pressure drop from CO2 uptake
82

The air is full of water

The air carries 10 to 100 times as much H2O as CO2 You can’t just suck the water out and pay for it Options: Hydrophobic CO2 sorbent: ??? Wet regeneration: water consumption, performance Water must not compete for adsorption site Moisture swing: Built-in water management Water and CO2 are counter-cyclical We cool during adsorption and produce heat during release
83

Going to Scale
•  10 million units @ 1/tonne per day
○  capture 3.6 Gt CO2 per year (12% of emissions) ○  Require annual production of 1 million (10yr life)
•  Compared to 70 million cars and light trucks

•  100 million units would lower CO2 in the air

84

One ton per day unit
100 million units would eliminate all emissions
world production of cars: 70 million per year

85

Shanghai harbor process 30 million containers a year

86

Shanghai container port, wikipedia picture

The cost estimation fallacy
1980s: $20 per disk

2011: $0.10 per disk
87

Prediction is difficult
Per ton CO2

$600

APS (low tech)

too inefficient to lift its own weight

$500

Cost of lighting dropped 7000 fold in the 20th century

Price dropped fortyfold

$400
Price dropped hundredfold

$300
GRT (first of a kind)

$200
Current estimates

$100
CO2 enriched air Raw material and energy limit

started at $600/t CO2 avoided at the tailpipe

$0

Our ingredient costs are small (resin, power, water etc.)
88
Wikipedia pictures

Conclusion
•  Moisture swing is a versatile air capture step
○  ○  ○  ○  ○  ○  ○  Boosts CO2 pressure 100-fold to 0.01 to 0.1 bar (today to 0.05 bar) Interfaces with passive contacting Eliminates water loss as a problem Initial 200-fold pressure amplification without direct energy input Can eliminate concerns over losses to the atmosphere Can completely eliminate heat losses Can interface with any flue-gas like separation process to produce pure CO2

Moisture swing can improve all other technologies
89

Looking forward

A NEW IDEA: REMOTE CCS

90

A new approach to mineral sequestration
•  Solve the NIMBY/NUMBY problem by moving to remote sites
○  Air capture can work in the remote locations favored by mines

•  Start at near zero cost and accelerate a spontaneous process
○  Peridotite mine tailings carbonate spontaneously (G. Dipple) ○  Even a low carbon price can motivate additional effort ○  Air capture can avoid the cost of pressurization and purification of CO2

•  Mining engineering of in situ carbonation on tailings or mineral heaps
○  ○  ○  ○  ○  ○  ○  ○  CO2 enhanced air flowing through engineered tailing piles Bicarbonate brines flowing through tailing piles or ponds Compensate for mine emissions Improve tailing stability, strengthen environmental remediation For For For For improved metallurgical extraction (improved flotation properties etc.) stabilizing alkaline wastes freeing alkalinity to neutralize strong acids enhanced carbonation

•  Mineral processing in reactor vessels

Develop processes, monitoring and verification techniques
91

Eliminate the big costs
•  Avoid compression and pipelining of CO2
○  Air capture to produce CO2 enriched air or bicarbonate brine ○  At least half the energy goes to compression ○  On site capture avoids the high energy step ○  Tailing pond or tailing pile processing ○  Slow but possibly cost effective •  A little happens for free •  Thus we can start at a low cost point

•  Use slow but cheap carbonation reaction

92

Looking forward

A NEW IDEA: CCU

93

All carbon dioxide emitted to the air will need to be recaptured

94

Fuels from electricity: Hydrogen
O2

Hydrogen Cycle
O2 H2
Power Consumer

Power generator

Energy Source

H2O
95

H2O

Carbon based non-fossil fuels
O2 CO2 O2
Energy Source

H2

CH2
Power Consumer

Power generator

Carbon Cycle
H2O
96

H2O
Enhancing the biological cycle

Carbon neutral energy systems

Energy Sources

Conversion

Outputs

Nuclear and renewable energy electrolysis Coal, tar, shale Synthesis Gas Natural Gas

Electricity

Stationary energy demand CO2 scrubbing CO2 and H2O inputs CCS Carbon Storage

Fischer Tropsch

Air capture

Petroleum

Liquid Fuel

Mobile energy demand

97

Carbon neutral energy systems

Energy Sources

Conversion

Outputs

Nuclear and renewable energy electrolysis Coal, tar, shale Synthesis Gas Natural Gas

Electricity

Stationary energy demand CO2 scrubbing CO2 and H2O inputs CCS Carbon Storage

Fischer Tropsch

Air capture

Petroleum

Liquid Fuel

Mobile energy demand

98

Carbon neutral energy systems

Energy Sources

Conversion

Outputs

Nuclear and renewable energy electrolysis Coal, tar, shale Synthesis Gas Natural Gas

Electricity

Stationary energy demand CO2 scrubbing CO2 and H2O inputs CCS Carbon Storage

Fischer Tropsch

Air capture

energy storage
Petroleum Liquid Fuel Mobile energy demand

99

New ideas change the world
•  Steam Engine •  Trains & Ships •  Telephones •  Automobile •  Television •  Airplanes •  Internet

Unpredicted and unmodeled, these inventions changed the course of future societal developments in unexpected ways
100

It is not all about technology
Public Institutions and Government
guidance

Carbon Board
certification

Private Sector
Carbon Carbon Farming, Manufacturing, Service, etc. Extraction Sequestration

Certified Carbon Accounting

certificates

Increased cost favor non-fossil alternatives
101

102

Economy must decarbonize fast
Annual reduction in the world’s carbon intensity (CO2/GDP) Carbon intensity reduction (%)
450 ppm à 7.3% annual reduction 550 ppm à 5.2% annual reduction 650 ppm à 4.8% annual reduction 750 ppm à 4.6% annual reduction

Stabilization point (ppm of CO2) Must overcome 3% economic growth plus 1% population growth
103

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