Lighthouse Investment Management

Weekly Chart Window

June 30, 2013

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

Page 1

Lighthouse Investment Management

Contents
TIPS-derived Inflation Expectations .............................................................................................................. 3 Stock Market and TIPS-Derived Inflation Expectations ................................................................................ 4 Trend: Moving Averages ............................................................................................................................... 5 Trend: MACD................................................................................................................................................. 6 Divergence From 50-Day Moving Average ................................................................................................... 7 Stocks Above 50-Day MAVG ......................................................................................................................... 8 Stocks Above 200-Day MAVG ....................................................................................................................... 9 Put-Call Ratio of Equity Options.................................................................................................................. 10 Net New Highs: NASDAQ ............................................................................................................................ 11 Net New Highs: NYSE .................................................................................................................................. 12 New Highs/Lows Ratio: NASDAQ ................................................................................................................ 13 New Highs/Lows Ratio: NYSE ...................................................................................................................... 14 Risk-on / Risk-Off ........................................................................................................................................ 15 Lighthouse Timing Index ............................................................................................................................. 16

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
TIPS-derived Inflation Expectations

Observations: • • • • • • Inflation expectations are calculated by subtracting real (TIPS) yields from nominal yields Despite the recent rise in nominal yields, inflation expectations have declined further (real yields have risen faster than nominal yields, compressing inflation expectations) Investors expect inflation to remain below the Fed's target (2% +/- 0.5) for the next 5 years. The Fed is not happy about reduced inflation expectations, as it does not force consumers to spend. A slowing velocity of money further counters the efforts of the Fed. However, recent talk from Bernanke about possible 'tapering' of QE later in 2013 led to doubts regarding the Fed's policy of N-GDP targeting, only adopted in late 2012. CONCLUSION: In order for a successful transition, Bernanke's successor (likely Janet Yellen) needs a 'good' reception from markets. The current setback in bonds and stocks might therefore be actually wanted / engineered by the Fed in order to create some upside potential for asset prices.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Stock Market and TIPS-Derived Inflation Expectations

Observations: • Since January 2012, the S&P 500 is basically uncorrelated to the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds (r2 = 0.02), but very much correlated to the expected rate of inflation over the next 10 years (r2 = up to 0.75). Since mid-February 2013, the strong correlation between expected inflation and the S&P 500 Index has reversed into a negative one. This is quite unusual.

Conclusion: • Assuming the bond market (despite price manipulation by the Fed) correctly reflects market expectations, the S&P 500 should be closer to 1,350 points given inflation expectations.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Trend: Moving Averages

Observations: • • All moving averages, except for the 10-day, still have a positive slope (pointing upwards) However, the 10-day mavg has breached the 50-day mavg, a first warning sign

Conclusion: • The uptrend is still intact, but losing momentum

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Trend: MACD

Observations: • • • The S&P 500 Index is around 9% above its 200-day moving average, which is still quite 'extended'. Similar levels had been reached in April 2012. The S&P is less extended from its 50- and 100-day moving average (which is to be expected, as those averages tend to follow the index more quickly) All three derivatives of moving averages have peaked, suggesting the stock market is losing momentum.

Conclusion: • Stock market needs to 'work off' its extended condition, especially from the 200-day moving average. This can be done by sideways movement. Such a 'solution' is unlikely, as the market has had no correction since November 2012 (and went up 23% since then). A significant downward move is therefore the likely solution.

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Divergence From 50-Day Moving Average

• •

The S&P 500 Index is currently near its 50-day moving average. The index spends more time inside a +/- 1 standard deviation envelope around its average than a normal distribution would suggest (only 1,354 days outside versus 1,812 days expected). The number of days outside a 2 standard deviation envelope (265) were in line with expectations (260). However, the balance is skewed towards the downside (204 versus 61 days). The number of days outside a 3 standard deviation envelope (84) exceeded expectations (15) by far. The balance is extremely skewed towards the downside (84 versus 0 days). The Lehman-aftermath was a six standard deviation-event, which should happen only once every 2 million years.

CONCLUSION: Anything between +/- 1 standard deviation is statistical noise. +2 gets reached only after a sharp drop. -3 events much more frequent than expected under normal distribution.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Stocks Above 50-Day MAVG

Observations: • 46% (from 36%) of the 500 stocks within the S&P Index are above their 50-day moving average

Conclusion: • • Less than half of the S&P 500 members are in a medium-term uptrend. This is a worrying sign. Any reading below 50% indicates trouble for the bulls.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Stocks Above 200-Day MAVG

Observations: • 84% (from 79% a week ago) of the 500 stocks within the S&P Index are above their 200-day moving average

Conclusion: • • More half of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index are in a long-term uptrend. This is a healthy sign. A drop below 50% would indicate trouble.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Put-Call Ratio of Equity Options

Observations: • • The equity put-call ratio (volume of puts traded relative to calls on individual stocks) has recently risen to 0.68 (from 0.67). Please note the inverse scale on the left. The reading is near the mean, but trending towards a bearish view.

Conclusion: • • The put-call ratio shows neither bullish nor bearish sentiment among option traders. A regression analysis revealed the put-call ratio has no correlation to stock market returns and can be considered useless.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Net New Highs: NASDAQ

Observations: • • The number of Nasdaq-listed stocks with new 52-week highs exceeds the number of stocks with new 52-week lows. This means the current record highs for the S&P 500 Index are supported by a large number of individual stocks.

Conclusion: • The rally has a good 'breadth'. No warning flag, but the trend is deteriorating.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Net New Highs: NYSE

Observations: • The number of NYSE-listed stocks with new 52-week highs is less than the number of stocks with new 52-week lows.

Conclusion: • The breadth of the recent stock market rally has deteriorated further. The cumulative number of net new highs has breached its 30-day moving average. This is a sell signal.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
New Highs/Lows Ratio: NASDAQ

Observations: • • Nasdaq-listed stocks with new 52-week highs exceeds the number of stocks with new 52-week lows by a ratio of 4.5:1, with a falling trend (previous week = 6:1). The rally since the beginning of 2013 has been accompanied by falling peaks in the ratio, which can be interpreted as a sign of weakening.

Conclusion: • • A fall in the ratio below 1 would indicate trouble. This is currently not the case. However, the ratio is below its 50-day moving average. This is a warning sign.

Weekly Chart Window - June 30, 2013

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Lighthouse Investment Management
New Highs/Lows Ratio: NYSE

Observations: • • • NYSE-listed stocks with new 52-week highs exceeds the number of stocks with new 52-week lows by a ratio of 1.7:1, with a falling trend (previous week = 2.3:1). The rally since the beginning of 2013 has been accompanied by falling peaks in the ratio, which can be interpreted as a sign of weakening. As a lot of fixed-income ETF's are listed on the NYSE they distort the picture (bond ETF's often rise as stocks fall).

Conclusion: • The ratio's 20-day moving average remains below 5. This is a sell signal.

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Risk-on / Risk-Off
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• • •

The general market (SPY) is underperforming high dividend shares (SDY), (red line, bearish) Stocks are outperforming bonds (blue line, bullish, but slowing momentum) The high-yield bond ETF (HGY) is outperforming investment-grade ETF (LQD); green line (bullish)

Equal-weight ETF (RSP) is underperforming market cap-weighted ETF (SPY); red line (bearish)

CONCLUSION: 2 out of 4 indicators suggest stock market is in an uptrend

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Lighthouse Investment Management
Lighthouse Timing Index

Observations: • The Lighthouse Timing Index remained at 0 (previous week: 0 points) after briefly dropping to -2

Conclusion: • Our composite index suggests that the upwards trend has ended, and delivered a "sell" signal.

Note: This index is a trend-confirming indicator, and will not be able to anticipate market tops or bottoms in advance. Due to smoothing of data, a certain time lag of about two weeks is to be expected.

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Lighthouse Investment Management

Any questions or feedback highly welcome. Alex.Gloy@LighthouseInvestmentManagement.com

Disclaimer: It should be self-evident this is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be taken as investment advice. Nothing posted here shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. You shouldn't be surprised that accounts managed by Lighthouse Investment Management or the author may have financial interests in any instruments mentioned in these posts. We may buy or sell at any time, might not disclose those actions and we might not necessarily disclose updated information should we discover a fault with our analysis. The author has no obligation to update any information posted here. We reserve the right to make investment decisions inconsistent with the views expressed here. We can't make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information posted. All liability for errors, omissions, misinterpretation or misuse of any information posted is excluded. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ All clients have their own individual accounts held at an independent, well-known brokerage company (US) or bank (Europe). This institution executes trades, sends confirms and statements. Lighthouse Investment Management does not take custody of any client assets.

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