This is the topic of Multiple Regression from the course of Statistical Inferences. This whole presentation is designed and created by the Professor of University Of Management and Technology Lahore, Pakistan Prof. Haris Aslam. You'll learn a lot from this presentation about the topic.

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Multiple Regression

This is the topic of Multiple Regression from the course of Statistical Inferences. This whole presentation is designed and created by the Professor of University Of Management and Technology Lahore, Pakistan Prof. Haris Aslam. You'll learn a lot from this presentation about the topic.

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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- Regression
- Multiple Regression Analysis
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You are on page 1of 57

Chapter Goals

After completing this chapter, you should be

able to:

explain model building using multiple regression

analysis

apply multiple regression analysis to business

decision-making situations

analyze and interpret the computer output for a

multiple regression model

test the significance of the independent variables

in a multiple regression model

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-2

Chapter Goals

(continued)

able to:

recognize potential problems in multiple

regression analysis and take steps to correct the

problems

incorporate qualitative variables into the

regression model by using dummy variables

use variable transformations to model nonlinear

relationships

The Multiple Regression Model

Idea: Examine the linear relationship between

1 dependent (y) & 2 or more independent variables (xi)

Population model:

Y-intercept Population slopes Random Error

y = β0 + β1x1 + β 2 x 2 + + βk x k + ε

Estimated multiple regression model:

Estimated Estimated

(or predicted) intercept Estimated slope coefficients

value of y

ŷ = b0 + b1x1 + b 2 x 2 + + bk x k

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-4

Multiple Regression Model

Two variable model

y

ŷ = b0 + b1x1 + b 2 x 2

x1

e

abl

a ri

orv

f

l op

e x2

S

r varia ble x 2

pe f o

Slo

x1

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-5

Multiple Regression Model

Two variable model

y Sample

<yi

observation ŷ = b0 + b1x1 + b 2 x 2

yi

<

e = (y – y)

x2i

x2

<

x1i The best fit equation, y ,

is found by minimizing the

x1 sum of squared errors, Σe2

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-6

Multiple Regression Assumptions

<

e = (y – y)

random

The errors are normally distributed

The mean of the errors is zero

Errors have a constant variance

Model Specification

dependent variable

Determine the potential independent variables for

your model

Gather sample data (observations) for all

variables

The Correlation Matrix

selected independent variables can be found

using Excel:

Formula Tab: Data Analysis / Correlation

correlation with a t test

Example

A distributor of frozen desert pies wants to

evaluate factors thought to influence demand

Dependent variable: Pie sales (units per week)

Independent variables: Price (in $)

Advertising ($100’s)

Pie Sales Model

Pie Price Advertising

Week Sales ($) ($100s)

Multiple regression model:

1 350 5.50 3.3

2 460 7.50 3.3

3 350 8.00 3.0 Sales = b0 + b1 (Price)

4 430 8.00 4.5

5 350 6.80 3.0 + b2 (Advertising)

6 380 7.50 4.0

7 430 4.50 3.0

8 470 6.40 3.7 Correlation matrix:

9 450 7.00 3.5

Pie Sales Price Advertising

10 490 5.00 4.0

Pie Sales 1

11 340 7.20 3.5

Price -0.44327 1

12 300 7.90 3.2

Advertising 0.55632 0.03044 1

13 440 5.90 4.0

14 450 5.00 3.5

15 300 7.00 2.7

Interpretation of Estimated

Coefficients

Slope (bi)

Estimates that the average value of y changes by bi

units for each 1 unit increase in Xi holding all other

variables constant

Example: if b1 = -20, then sales (y) is expected to

decrease by an estimated 20 pies per week for each $1

increase in selling price (x1), net of the effects of

changes due to advertising (x2)

y-intercept (b0)

The estimated average value of y when all xi = 0

(assuming all xi = 0 is within the range of observed

values)Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Chap 15-12

Pie Sales Correlation Matrix

Pie Sales 1

Price -0.44327 1

Advertising 0.55632 0.03044 1

There is a negative association between

price and sales

Advertising vs. Sales : r = 0.55632

There is a positive association between

advertising and sales

Scatter Diagrams

Sales

600

500

400

300

200

Sales vs. Advertising

100 Sales

600

0

0 2 4 6 8 10 500

Price 400

300

200

100

0

0 1 2 3 4 5

Advertising

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-14

Estimating a Multiple Linear

Regression Equation

Computer software is generally used to generate

the coefficients and measures of goodness of fit

for multiple regression

Excel:

Data / Data Analysis / Regression

PHStat:

Add-Ins / PHStat / Regression / Multiple

Regression…

Estimating a Multiple Linear

Regression Equation

Excel:

Data / Data Analysis / Regression

Estimating a Multiple Linear

Regression Equation

PHStat:

Add-Ins / PHStat / Regression / Multiple Regression…

Multiple Regression Output

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.72213

R Square 0.52148

Adjusted R Square 0.44172

Standard Error 47.46341 Sales = 306.526 - 24.975(Pri ce) + 74.131(Adv ertising)

Observations 15

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 29460.027 14730.013 6.53861 0.01201

Residual 12 27033.306 2252.776

Total 14 56493.333

Intercept 306.52619 114.25389 2.68285 0.01993 57.58835 555.46404

Price -24.97509 10.83213 -2.30565 0.03979 -48.57626 -1.37392

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 2.85478 0.01449 17.55303 130.70888

The Multiple Regression Equation

where

Sales is in number of pies per week

Price is in $

Advertising is in $100’s.

b1 = -24.975: sales b2 = 74.131: sales will

will decrease, on increase, on average,

average, by 24.975 by 74.131 pies per

pies per week for week for each $100

each $1 increase in increase in

selling price, net of advertising, net of the

the effects of effects of changes

changes due to due to price

advertising

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-19

Using The Model to Make

Predictions

Predict sales for a week in which the selling

price is $5.50 and advertising is $350:

= 306.526 - 24.975 (5.50) + 74.131 (3.5)

= 428.62

Predicted sales in $100’s, so $350

means that x2 = 3.5

is 428.62 pies

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-20

Predictions in PHStat

PHStat | regression | multiple regression …

Check the

“confidence and

prediction interval

estimates” box

Predictions in PHStat

(continued)

Input values

<

Predicted y value

Confidence interval for the

<

mean y value, given

these x’s

<

individual y value, given

these x’s

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-22

Multiple Coefficient of

Determination (R2)

Reports the proportion of total variation in y

explained by all x variables taken together

R = 2

=

SST Total sum of squares

Multiple Coefficient of

Determination

(continued)

Regression Statistics

SSR 29460.0

Multiple R 0.72213

R = 2

= = .52148

R Square 0.52148 SST 56493.3

Adjusted R Square 0.44172

Standard Error 47.46341 52.1% of the variation in pie sales

Observations 15 is explained by the variation in

price and advertising

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 29460.027 14730.013 6.53861 0.01201

Residual 12 27033.306 2252.776

Total 14 56493.333

Intercept 306.52619 114.25389 2.68285 0.01993 57.58835 555.46404

Price -24.97509 10.83213 -2.30565 0.03979 -48.57626 -1.37392

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 2.85478 0.01449 17.55303 130.70888

Adjusted R2

R2 never decreases when a new x variable is

added to the model

This can be a disadvantage when comparing

models

What is the net effect of adding a new variable?

We lose a degree of freedom when a new x

variable is added

Did the new x variable add enough

degree of freedom?

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-25

Adjusted R2

(continued)

Shows the proportion of variation in y explained by

all x variables adjusted for the number of x

variables used

n −1

R = 1 − (1 − R )

2

A

2

n − k − 1

(where n = sample size, k = number of independent variables)

variables

Smaller than R2

Useful in comparing among models

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-26

Multiple Coefficient of

Determination

(continued)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.72213 R 2A = .44172

R Square 0.52148

Adjusted R Square 0.44172

44.2% of the variation in pie sales is

Standard Error 47.46341 explained by the variation in price and

Observations 15 advertising, taking into account the sample

size and number of independent variables

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 29460.027 14730.013 6.53861 0.01201

Residual 12 27033.306 2252.776

Total 14 56493.333

Intercept 306.52619 114.25389 2.68285 0.01993 57.58835 555.46404

Price -24.97509 10.83213 -2.30565 0.03979 -48.57626 -1.37392

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 2.85478 0.01449 17.55303 130.70888

Is the Model Significant?

F-Test for Overall Significance of the Model

Shows if there is a linear relationship between all

of the x variables considered together and y

Use F test statistic

Hypotheses:

H0: β1 = β2 = … = βk = 0 (no linear relationship)

HA: at least one βi ≠ 0 (at least one independent

variable affects y)

F-Test for Overall Significance

(continued)

Test statistic:

SSR

k MSR

F= =

SSE MSE

n − k −1

(denominator) D2 = (n – k – 1)

degrees of freedom

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-29

F-Test for Overall Significance

(continued)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.72213

MSR 14730.0

F= = = 6.5386

R Square 0.52148

Adjusted R Square 0.44172

MSE 2252.8

Standard Error 47.46341

With 2 and 12 degrees P-value for

Observations 15

of freedom the F-Test

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 29460.027 14730.013 6.53861 0.01201

Residual 12 27033.306 2252.776

Total 14 56493.333

Intercept 306.52619 114.25389 2.68285 0.01993 57.58835 555.46404

Price -24.97509 10.83213 -2.30565 0.03979 -48.57626 -1.37392

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 2.85478 0.01449 17.55303 130.70888

F-Test for Overall Significance

(continued)

HA: β1 and β2 not both zero MSR

F= = 6.5386

α = .05 MSE

df1= 2 df2 = 12

Decision:

Critical Reject H0 at α = 0.05

Value:

Fα = 3.885

Conclusion:

The regression model does explain

α = .05 a significant portion of the

variation in pie sales

0 Do not Reject H0

F (There is evidence that at least one

reject H0

F.05 = 3.885 independent variable affects y )

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-31

Are Individual Variables

Significant?

Use t-tests of individual variable slopes

Shows if there is a linear relationship between the

variable xi and y

Hypotheses:

H0: βi = 0 (no linear relationship)

HA: βi ≠ 0 (linear relationship does exist

between xi and y)

Are Individual Variables

Significant?

(continued)

HA: βi ≠ 0 (linear relationship does exist

between xi and y )

Test Statistic:

bi − 0

t= (df = n – k – 1)

sbi

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-33

Are Individual Variables

Significant?

(continued)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.72213

t-value for Price is t = -2.306, with

R Square 0.52148

p-value .0398

Adjusted R Square 0.44172

Standard Error 47.46341 t-value for Advertising is t = 2.855,

Observations 15 with p-value .0145

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 29460.027 14730.013 6.53861 0.01201

Residual 12 27033.306 2252.776

Total 14 56493.333

Intercept 306.52619 114.25389 2.68285 0.01993 57.58835 555.46404

Price -24.97509 10.83213 -2.30565 0.03979 -48.57626 -1.37392

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 2.85478 0.01449 17.55303 130.70888

Inferences about the Slope:

t Test Example

From Excel output:

H0: βi = 0

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

HA: βi ≠ 0 Price -24.97509 10.83213 -2.30565 0.03979

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 2.85478 0.01449

d.f. = 15-2-1 = 12

α = .05 The test statistic for each variable falls

tα/2 = 2.1788 in the rejection region (p-values < .05)

Decision:

α/2=.025 α/2=.025

Reject H0 for each variable

Conclusion:

Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

There is evidence that both

-tα/2 tα/2 Price and Advertising affect

0

-2.1788 2.1788 pie sales at α = .05

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-35

Confidence Interval Estimate

for the Slope

Confidence interval for the population slope β1

(the effect of changes in price on pie sales):

(n – k – 1) d.f.

Intercept 306.52619 114.25389 … 57.58835 555.46404

Price -24.97509 10.83213 … -48.57626 -1.37392

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 … 17.55303 130.70888

by between 1.37 to 48.58 pies for each increase of $1

in the selling price

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-36

Standard Deviation of the

Regression Model

regression model is:

SSE

sε = = MSE

n − k −1

Is this value large or small? Must compare to the

mean size of y for comparison

Standard Deviation of the

Regression Model

(continued)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.72213

R Square 0.52148

The standard deviation of the

Adjusted R Square 0.44172

regression model is 47.46

Standard Error 47.46341

Observations 15

Regression 2 29460.027 14730.013 6.53861 0.01201

Residual 12 27033.306 2252.776

Total 14 56493.333

Intercept 306.52619 114.25389 2.68285 0.01993 57.58835 555.46404

Price -24.97509 10.83213 -2.30565 0.03979 -48.57626 -1.37392

Advertising 74.13096 25.96732 2.85478 0.01449 17.55303 130.70888

Standard Deviation of the

Regression Model

(continued)

The standard deviation of the regression model is

47.46

A rough prediction range for pie sales in a given

week is ± 2(47.46) = 94.2

Pie sales in the sample were in the 300 to 500

per week range, so this range is probably too

large to be acceptable. The analyst may want to

look for additional variables that can explain more

of the variation in weekly sales

Multicollinearity

between two independent variables

This means the two variables contribute

redundant information to the multiple regression

model

Multicollinearity

(continued)

Including two highly correlated independent

variables can adversely affect the regression

results

No new information provided

Can lead to unstable coefficients (large

standard error and low t-values)

Coefficient signs may not match prior

expectations

Some Indications of Severe

Multicollinearity

Incorrect signs on the coefficients

Large change in the value of a previous

coefficient when a new variable is added to the

model

A previously significant variable becomes

insignificant when a new independent variable

is added

The estimate of the standard deviation of the

model increases when a variable is added to

the model

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-42

Qualitative (Dummy) Variables

Categorical explanatory variable (dummy

variable) with two or more levels:

yes or no, on or off, male or female

coded as 0 or 1

Regression intercepts are different if the

variable is significant

Assumes equal slopes for other variables

The number of dummy variables needed is

(number of levels – 1)

Dummy-Variable Model Example

(with 2 Levels)

Let:

y = pie sales ŷ = b0 + b1x1 + b 2 x 2

x1 = price

x2 = holiday (X2 = 1 if a holiday occurred during the week)

(X2 = 0 if there was no holiday that week)

Dummy-Variable Model Example

(with 2 Levels)

(continued)

Different Same

intercept slope

y (sales)

If H0: β2 = 0 is

b0 + b2

Holi rejected, then

day

b0 “Holiday” has a

No H

olid significant effect

ay

on pie sales

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. x1 (Price) Chap 15-45

Interpreting the Dummy Variable

Coefficient (with 2 Levels)

Example: Sales = 300 - 30(Price) + 15(Holiday)

Sales: number of pies sold per week

Price: pie price in $

1 If a holiday occurred during the week

Holiday:

0 If no holiday occurred

weeks with a holiday than in weeks without a

holiday, given the same price

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-46

Dummy-Variable Models

(more than 2 Levels)

The number of dummy variables is one less than

the number of levels

Example:

y = house price ; x1 = square feet

Style = ranch, split level, condo

variables are needed

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-47

Dummy-Variable Models

(more than 2 Levels)

(continued)

Let the default category be “condo”

x2 = x3 =

0 if not 0 if not

ŷ = b0 + b1x1 + b 2 x 2 + b 3 x 3

b2 shows the impact on price if the house is a

ranch style, compared to a condo

b3 shows the impact on price if the house is a

split level style, compared to a condo

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-48

Interpreting the Dummy Variable

Coefficients (with 3 Levels)

Suppose the estimated equation is

ŷ = 20.43 + 0.045x 1 + 23.53x 2 + 18.84x 3

For a condo: x2 = x3 = 0

With the same square feet, a

ŷ = 20.43 + 0.045x 1 ranch will have an estimated

average price of 23.53

For a ranch: x3 = 0 thousand dollars more than a

condo

ŷ = 20.43 + 0.045x 1 + 23.53

With the same square feet, a

ranch will have an estimated

For a split level: x2 = 0

average price of 18.84

ŷ = 20.43 + 0.045x 1 + 18.84 thousand dollars more than a

condo.

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-49

Model Building

Goal is to develop a model with the best set of

independent variables

Easier to interpret if unimportant variables are

removed

Lower probability of collinearity

Stepwise regression procedure

Provide evaluation of alternative models as variables

are added

Best-subset approach

Try all combinations and select the best using the

highest adjusted R2 and lowest sε

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-50

Stepwise Regression

regression equation in steps, either

through forward selection, backward

elimination, or through standard stepwise

regression

Best Subsets Regression

using all possible combinations of independent

variables

adjusted R2 and lowest standard error sε

regression can be performed using PHStat,

Minitab, or other statistical software packages

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-52

Aptness of the Model

verifying the assumptions of multiple

regression:

Errors are independent and random

i

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-53

Residual Analysis

residuals

residuals

x x

residuals

residuals

x x

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Chap 15-54

The Normality Assumption

Standardized residuals can be calculated by

computer

Examine a histogram or a normal probability plot

of the standardized residuals to check for

normality

Chapter Summary

Tested the significance of the multiple

regression model

Developed adjusted R2

Tested individual regression coefficients

Used dummy variables

Chapter Summary

(continued)

Described multicollinearity

Discussed model building

Stepwise regression

Best subsets regression

Examined residual plots to check model

assumptions

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