Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis

1.155, 2.943, 3.577, 6.938, 10.816, 13.621, 16.862, 22.82, ESD.72, ESD.721

RPRA 4.

Availability

George E. Apostolakis Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Spring 2007
RPRA 4. Availability 1

Definitions

Unavailability: Availability: q(t) + a(t) = 1

q(t) = Pr[down at t] a(t) 1-q(t) = Pr[up at t]

RPRA 4. Availability

Unattended components
q(t) = F(t) = Pr[T < t]

Example:

2-out-of-3 system of exponential components

Q s ( t ) = Fs ( t ) = 3(1 e t ) 2 2(1 e t ) 3

RPRA 4. Availability

Continuously monitored repairable components

RPRA 4. Availability

Continuously monitored repairable components (2)

Average unavailability:
MTTR q= MTTF + MTTR

For the exponential failure distribution: 1 MTTF = q= = , Note : q for < 0.1 1 1 + + RPRA 4. Availability 5

Example
2 1 A 3 B

i 1 2 3

MTTF (hrs) 800 600 600

MTTR (hrs) 8 15 15

RPRA 4. Availability

Example (2)
What is the reliability of the system for one month assuming that no repair is available? Step 1: System Logic Minimal path sets: { Y1, Y2} { Y1 , Y3 }

Structure function for success: YS = 1 - (1 - Y1Y2)(1 - Y1Y3) YS = Y1(Y2 + Y3 - Y2 Y3)

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Example (3)
Step 2: Reliability of the system in terms of component reliabilities: RS = R1(R2 + R3 - R2R3) Component reliabilities: R1 = exp(-720/800) = 0.407 R2 = R3 = exp(-720/600) = 0.301 Therefore, RS = 0.208
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Example (4)
What is the availability of the system assuming that the repair process starts immediately upon detection of failure? Structure function for success YS = Y1(Y2 + Y3 - Y2 Y3) Availability of the system in terms of component availabilities: AS = a1(a2 + a3 - a2a3)
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Example (5)
Component availabilities: a1 = 1 (8/800) = 0.990 a2 = a3 = 1 (15/600) = 0.975. Therefore, AS = 0.989.
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Note

Minimal cut sets: X1 and X2X3 Structure function for failure: XS = 1 - (1 - X1)(1 - X2X3) X S = X 1 + X2 X 3 - X 1 X 2 X 3

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Note (2)
The unreliability of the system for one month is: FS = F1 + F2F3 - F1F2F3 where: F1 = 1 - exp(-720/800) = 0.593

F2 = F3 = 1 - exp(-720/600) = 0.699. Thus, FS = 0.792 = 1 - 0.208 = 1 - RS

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PROBABILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE OR SUCCESS

1. Determine the structure function. 2. Express system (un)reliability or (un)availability as a function of component (un)reliabilities or (un)availabilities. 3. Determine component (un)reliabilities or (un)availabilities.
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