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ZAMBIACOMMERCIALBANKCAPITALRAISE

September2009
Lookingforabiggerpieceofthepie!

Analyst:AnthonyLopesPinto
Tel:+244921647045
Email:anthonyl@imaraangola.com

EQUITYRESEARCH

ZAMBIA

RESEARCH

PotentiallythemostprofitablebankinSSA

01SEPTEMBER2009

TheZambianNationalCommercialBank(ZANACO)was Zambias

lastandarguablysweetestprivatisationsuccess,consideringthat
the timing of listing coincided with the demise of Lehman

brothers!In2007,theGovernmentofZambiasolda49%stake
to the
Dutch financial group Rabobank, and further reduced its
interest to 25% following the IPO and capital raise. ZANACO is
lookingtoconsolidateitspositionfurtherbyaddingtoitstier2

capitalbaseviatheissueofbondsamountingtoZMK300billion

(US$62,5m).Thiswillplacethebankonasurefootingtobenefit
fromthecontinuedgrowthinthecountrysdevelopingeconomy.

BLOOMBERG:ZANACO:ZL
Currentprice(ZMK)
Targetprice
Upside/Downside
Liquidity
MarketCap(ZMKm)
MarketCap(US$m)
Shares(m)
FreeFloat(%)
AveMonthlyvaluetraded(US$m)
AveMonthlyvolume(m)
SharePricePerformance
6months(%)
Relativechange(%)*
Relativechange(%)**
12months
Relativechange(%)*
Relativechange(%)**

Typically on African bourses, banking shares make up about

halfofthecapitalisation.ThethatfactbanksinZambiaonly
makeup10%ofthemarketisaclearindicationthatthelocal
banks are undercapitalised, relative to the funding
requirements of the countrys productive sectors. This
argument is further underlined in that total loans for the
Zambianbankingsectorstandatonlyjust9%ofGDP.
Apart from a high cost to income ratio and a slightly sour
advancesbook,Rabobankpurchasedasoundfinancialgroup.
Already, the interim results indicate significant progress in
streamliningcostsandincreasinglendingcapacitytoenableit
to exploit the abundant funding opportunities emerging in

oneofSSAsmostprogressivedemocracies.TheplannedTier
2 capital injection is the next step in this journey that will

consolidatethegroupsmarketdominance.

2008 2009F
260,746 401,723
86,050 195,491
51,985 140,754
16.1%
1.8%
71.8%
43.0%

29%
3.9%
58%
55.0%

554,312.9
115.5
1,154.8

*RelativetoLuSEindex
**RelativetoMSCIEMindex

FINANCIALSUMMARY(ZMKm)
Netinterestincome
Profitbeforetax
Attributableearnings
RATIOS
ROE
ROA
Cost/IncomeRatio(%)*
Advances/Deposits(%)
VALUATIONRATIOS
PBV(x)
PER(x)
DividendYield(%)
Dividendpayoutratio(%)
*Preprovisionforimpairedadvances

BUY
480

2010F
482,067
250,260
180,188

Financials
EPS(ZMK)
DPS(ZMK)
NAV/Share(ZMK)
NetInterestMargin(%)

2008
45.0
15.8
279.0
12.4

STRENGTHS
Reputablemajorshareholder:Rabobank
Oneofthetop4banksinZambia
Solidbalancesheet
Largestbranchnetwork
Conservativemanagementteam
OPPORTUNITIES
Capitalraisetogrowcapacity
Furthergrowthofdepositsandloanbook
Improvementinprofitabilityand
qualityofloanbook

WEAKNESSES
Relativelysmallbalancesheet
HighCost/Incomeratio
HighNPLslegacyissue

2010F
156.0
54.6
410.0
12.4

THREATS
Kwachaweakness
Commoditypriceshocks
Wellestablishedcompetition
andthreatofnewcomers

30%
4.1%
54%
55.0%

1.8 1.2 1.0


11.1 4.1 3.2
3%
9%
11%
35%
35%
35%

2009F
121.9
42.6
344.8
12.4

ExecutiveSummary
TheprivatisationandlistingofZANACOontheLusakaboursewastheZambiangovernmentslastand

probably,mostsuccessfulprivatisationendeavour,havingtakeplaceatthesametimeasthedemise
of Lehman brothers and significant global financial market turbulence. Despite the surrounding

depression, the bank emerged from 2008 virtually unscathed, and reported strong double digit
growthinabovethelineprofitsduringH12009.

UnderthestewardshipofanewmanagementteamappointedbytheDutchfinancialservicesparent

Group, Rabobank the H109 and FY08 results have already registered a notable improvement over
previousyearsandconsequently,thegroupisemergingasaleanerandmoreprofitableplayerinthe

evolvingZambianFinancialservicesphere.

Whilethemarketischaracterisedbywellestablishedinternational(mostlyBritish)financialservices
groups,severalmetricspointtoenhancedpotentialforgrowthofthelocalfinancialservicesindustry.

Inthefirstinstance,asat30thJune2009,aggregateassetsofthebankingsector(US$2,9bn)standat
1
.Consequently,the
justover19%ofGDP,whiletotalloansandadvancesstandatapaltry9%ofGDP

countrys growing mining and agricultural industries are starved of credit, and where it becomes

availabledoessoatapunitivecost,infact,oneofthehighestinSSA.Withlimitedaffordablelending
options, Zambian banks have had to jostle for cheap deposits and maintain an ultraconservative
policies, characterised by an inordinately high CAR ratios. ZANACOs CAR as at the end of
lending
Decemberwas21%atthetieroneleveland22%includingtiertwocapital.

Asaprefacetothebankseffortstobeefupitstiertwocapitalandincreaseitslendingcapacity,we

conductthisstudyintoZANACOtoderiveanideaofthegroupsstrength,relativetoitspeersinthe
Zambianmarket.WealsobenchmarkthegroupagainstitspeersinSubSaharanAfrica,toguagethe

groupsrenewedpotential,sinceprivatisation.

Ourfindingsareprofound.Onthegroupsnewtrajectory,webelieveacontinueddeliberatefocus
onimprovingoperatingefficiencieswillreapsignificantrewardsforthebottomline.Theruleoftwo

hasheldtrueforthisformerparastatalandasattheendof2008therewasagaping20percentage
pointgap between the groups cost to income ratio and the weighted average for the SSA peer
grouping.ThesepotentialcashsavingsaloneamounttoaboutaUS$17mboosttoPBT!Secondly,
there had not been a very specific emphasis on loan growth, a situation that had been eroding
market share. The change in strategy and increased aggression is most clearly marked by the

increaseintheloantodepositratiofrom48%atendH108to60%atendH109,whichatconstantfat
marginsshouldresultinamuchimprovedresultforFY09.

In summary we have foundZANACO to be fundamentally strong possessing a soundbalance sheet

andsomeofthehighestnetinterestmarginsinSSA.Therearesomelegacyissuessurroundingthe
qualityoftheadvancesbook,andalthoughimpairmentsat7%arenotalarminglyhigh,theyarestill

out of sync with the weighted average for our SSA peer group of 3.3%. We expect that organic
growthoftheloanbookwilldilutethisratioquickly,andweexpectabetterqualityloanbookgoing

forward.

Finallywebelievetheretobeadisconnectbetweenthedemandforcapitalinthecountryandthe
quantum
of leverage capital available. We see ZANACOs capital buttressing as a positive that will
makeitoneofthemostprofitablebanksinSSA.
1

ZambianGDPwasestimatedat$15,2bnin2008byCIAFactbook

Top5Shareholders
RabobankGroup
GRZ
Public
ZNFU
Employees(ESOP)

%
46%
25%
25%
3%
1%
100%

ZanacoOverviewof2009InterimFinancialResults

In under two years since Rabobank took over control of the Zanaco group, significant strides in the improvement of asset

qualityandprofitabilityhaveoccurred.TheimprovementisparticularlyvisibleintheinterimresultstoH109asoutlinedbelow.

Historicallythegrouphasenjoyedaboveparnetinterestmarginsonitsbook,howeverthesehavebeendilutedbypoorcost
containmentandinefficienciesinmanagingthecountryslargestbranchnetwork(with44branches).ForH109,thebanksRoE

andRoAhavesurgedby11and2percentagepointsrespectively,asignificantfeatposttheslumpinthecountrysfundamentals
broughtbythedropincopperpricesandZMKweaknessinQ408.

AnimprovementinliquiditywasregisteredbyanincreaseinourrudimentaryCARcomputation(seepage7)attheinterimfrom

9%to12%whiledepositsgrewby16%andloansandadvancesby45%.Thecomplexionofthebalancesheetchangedtoo,with
theintroductionofsubordinateddebt,whichwasusedtopropeladvances.Inthemediumtermweexpectthebalancesheetto

takeonmoregearingatslimmernetinterestmargins,butwithgreatereconomiesofscale.
H12008

H12009

%ch

Netinterestincome

109,679

143,748

31%

Otherincome

63,600

77,578

22%

TotalIncome

173,279

221,326

28%

Provisions

(9,149) (24,344)

166%

Expenses

(140,561) (140,499)

0%

Profitbeforetax

23,569

56,483

140%

Attributableearnings

23,702

33,191

40%

600,000

Figure2:ZambianBanks TotalIncome

500,000

ZMKmillion

IncomeStatement(ZMKm)

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007
Barclays

H12008

H12009

CashatcentralBank

315,650

333,712

6%

Cashonhand

48,222

67,067

39%

Balanceswithbanks

57,565

203,490

253%

Securities

543,139

609,964

12%

Loans&Advances

813,645

1,177,930

45%

2,500,000

FixedAssets

125,060

146,117

17%

1,500,000

Other

54,807

92,874

69%

500,000

TotalAssets

1,958,088

2,631,154

34%

Deposits

1,697,287

1,965,350

16%

Duetobanks

1,773

96,226

5327%

BorrowedFunds

176,814

n/a

Otherliabilities

111,947

129,830

16%

Shareholders'funds

147,081

262,934

79%

Totalliabilitiesandequity

1,958,088

2,631,154

34%

15.0%

14.0%

7%

81%

63%

22%

RoE

32.0%

43.0%

34.1%

RoA

2.4%

4.3%

78.3%

9%

12%

27.8%

48%

60%

25.0%

Costtoincomeratio

RoughCAR

Loan/Deposit

Stanbic

Finance

%ch

Netinterestmargin

SCB

Citibank

Source:StockbrokersZambia

ZMKmillions

BalanceSheet(ZMKm)

Zanaco

Figure3:ZambianBankingStatistics
4,500,000

TotalAssets

4,000,000

Deposits

LoansandAdvances

Barclays seemsoverstretchedcontraryto
ZANACOwhichseemsunderlent

3,500,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000

2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007
Barclays

Zanaco

SCB

Stanbic

Finance

Citibank

Source:StockbrokersZambia

Figure4:Zanaco Advancesdisaggregation
Dec2008
Personal
Loans
29%

Mortgages
2%
commercial
Loans
41%

Overdrafts
28%

Source:ZANACO

14%

RelativeComparisons

Figure5:NetInterestMargin(%)

12%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%

SouthAfrica

Mauritius

Uganda

Morocco

Nigeria

Ghana

Botswana

InvestrustZambia

0%

WeightedAvgincSA

Zambia

2%

Kenya

4%

Weighted Avg exSA

Coted'Ivoire

6%

StanchartZambia

8%

We have analysed Zanaco at the end of FY2008 from a bifocal


perspective; firstly relative to its listed financial peers on the
Zambian stock exchange, and secondly relative to a basket of
listed banks in SSA, that, in our opinion, have similar business
models.Ourfindingsaredocumentedbelow:

ZANACO

10%

ZANACOenjoyssomeofthehighestnetinterestmargins

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

Figure 5 shows that Zanaco exhibits some of the highest net


interest margins in Africa! Being a relatively small market,
Zambia has a high cost of capital and it necessarily follows that
anyplayerwithasourceofcheapdepositsreapstherewards.

Figure6:Costtoincomeratio(%)

Weighted Avg exSA

Efficiencyalegacyproblemthatwillreaphugerewards

WeightedAvgincSA

Being a brand new privatisation, it comes as no surprise that


Zanacos the cost to income ratio is atrociously high at close to
70%!ThisisacleardemonstrationoftheRuleoftwothatstates
that government owned companies typically operate at half the
efficiency of private companies, run on a profit maximisation
basis. The reasons for this are obvious, however, viewed
differently,thisisameasureofthepotentialincreaseinpretax
profits that could be achieved by efficiency gains alone. We
estimate that a reversion to the mean cost to income ratio for
our SSA sample would result in an annual cost saving in the
regionofZMK80bn(US$17m)!Wehavenodoubtthatthiswas
animmediateattractionforthebanksnewsuitors.

30%
20%

Uganda

Coted'Ivoire

Ghana

Nigeria

Zambia

Kenya

Botswana

SouthAfrica

Morocco

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

Figure7:EffectiveTaxRate(%)

Weighted Avg exSA


WeightedAvg
incSA

TaxationforZambianbanks,aparticularlythornyissue
TheZambiantaxationpolicyisretrogressiveinthatittaxesbanks
at a higher rate of 40% than other companies that are taxed at
35%.Thisisoneofthereasonsforthehighcostofcapitalinthe
country and a consequence that retards and repels investment
andgrowth. Of the10countries covered in this study,Zambia
hasthehighestweightedaverageeffectivetaxratethatputsitat
asignificantdisadvantagetoneighbouringBotswanaandalsoto
Mauritius, another established International Financial Services
Centre(IFSC).Inouropinion,aslessseveretaxationregimefor
the financial services sector would promote investment therein,
with positive implications for not only the capital intensive
Mining and Agricultural sectors, but far reaching implications in
areaslikeMicrofinanceandpersonalcredit,twoareasthatcould
beexpandedfortheirimmediatepotential.

Zambia

Morocco

Coted'Ivoire

Uganda

Kenya

Nigeria

Ghana

SouthAfrica

Mauritius

Botswana

ZANACO

StanchartZambia

InvestrustZambia

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

70%

Figure8:ReturnonEquity RoE(%)

60%
50%

40%
30%

Weighted Avg exSA

20%
10%

Coted'Ivoire

Nigeria

Uganda

Morocco

SouthAfrica

Mauritius

Kenya

Zambia

Ghana

Botswana

ZANACO

StanchartZambia

0%
InvestrustZambia

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Mauritius

ZANACO

StanchartZambia

0%

InvestrustZambia

10%

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

Considering the above, ZANACOs key profitability ratio, RoE,


comparedpoorlyagainstlocalandregionalpeers.

Weighted Avg exSA

14%

Uganda

Morocco

Coted'Ivoire

Nigeria

SouthAfrica

Figure10:DividendYields(%)

12%
10%
8%

Weighted Avg exSA

6%

WeightedAvgincSA

4%
2%

12.0

Coted'Ivoire

Morocco

Zambia

Mauritius

Uganda

SouthAfrica

Botswana

Nigeria

Ghana

Kenya

ZANACO

StanchartZambia

0%

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

Figure11:Advances/Equity(x)

10.0
WeightedAvgincSA

8.0
6.0

Weighted Avg exSA

4.0
2.0

80%

SouthAfrica

Morocco

Botswana

Uganda

Ghana

Zambia

Mauritius

Kenya

Nigeria

Coted'Ivoire

InvestrustZambia

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

Figure12:AdvancesGrowthyoy(%)

70%
60%
WeightedAvgincSA

50%
40%

Weighted Avg exSA

30%
20%
10%

Mauritius

SouthAfrica

Coted'Ivoire

Zambia

Botswana

Morocco

Uganda

Kenya

Ghana

Nigeria

ZANACO

StanchartZambia

0%
InvestrustZambia

Zambia

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

BalanceSheetleveragerelativelylow
Limited access to international financial liquidity pools leaves most
African banks of a higher risk of closure in the event of an abnormally
highdefault.Themajorityofthebankshavelittleoptionotherthanto
maintain
much higher than first world liquidity ratios. Figure 11 may
indeed be a measure of the level of the evolution and maturity of
markets. The progression would be about right, excluding
financial
Mauritius,wherehighercorrelationwithglobalmarketsandparticularly

the dependence
on tourism, has prompted banks to be more cautious
when growing their book. Zanaco leveraged at about 3x seems that at

theexistingfundinglevels,thebankhastheabilitytogrowitsadvances
book organically. Indeed this is a healthy picture, indicating that the

bank has not over streched itself. On the whole, it can be concluded

Mauritius

Ghana

Botswana

Kenya

ZANACO

StanchartZambia

InvestrustZambia

WeightedAvgincSA

InvestrustZambia

By and
large, banks in SSA tend to be small, stable and for their size,
solidlycapitalised,mostlybecauseoftheirexclusionfromglobalcapital

marketsandhencerelativeisolation.InSSA,onlySouthAfricaistheonly
real exception, intricately linked to the European, American and Asian

global markets and exhibiting strong correlation. Emerging Botswana


andMauritiusareprobablyatierbelowhoweverbothhavehighlevelsof

disintermediation and are promoting development of their financial


sectors,primarilybytheprovisionoftaxationincentives.Theoutlieris

Nigeria,whoseweightandcloutismoreaconsequenceofthesizeofits
economy,asinfluencedbysignificantoilrevenues,butalsobythesizeof

its real economy, being the most populous country on the continent.
disintermediation is patchy at best and the country lacks the
Financial
legal and physical infrastructures to benefit from the unbanked

population.Indeedtherecentcarnagecausedbythemarginloanfiasco
is a reminder of just how much behind the curve that market is.

Thankfullythesubsequentdramaticandunprecedentedactiontakenby
theCentralBankofNigeriahastakenthecountryagiantleapforwards

initsmaturity.

Figure9:ReturnonAssets RoA(%)

ZANACO

BalancesheetAnalysis

5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%

StanchartZambia

Havingoutlinedthesignificantlyhigherinefficienciesandtaxationlevels
in Zambia it necessarily follows that ZANACO has historically ranked
lower than its peers profitability metrics. RoE statistics are lower than
the weighted average for our comparative grouping of banks and only

slightly higher than ETI in code dIvoire and Nigeria; although limited
quality lending opportunities in the latter make it more difficult to

leverage deposits profitably. One can draw the same conclusion from
thereturnonassets,whichisthelowestforthelistedbanksinZambia

and half that for Investrust. Consequently, ZANACOs dividend yield at

4% is very
low; especially when compared to kwacha 364 day treasury
billratewhichendedJulyat19.1%.Onayieldbasis,Kenya,Ghanaand

Nigeriaarethemoreattractivemarkets.

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

that the Zambian banking sector is well leveraged, relative to the weighted
averageofitspeersinAfrica,excludingSouthAfrica.

70%

Figure13:DepositGrowthyoy(%)

60%
50%

Depositgrowthaproxyforsustainableearningsgrowth

40%

WeightedAvgincSA

30%

Weighted Avg exSA

For2008ZANACOsadvancesgrowthoflessthan10%yoyin2008wasrather

concerning, primarily because in Kwacha terms this growth was negative,


particularlywhenthedepreciationoftheKwachaisbroughtintotheequation.

A look at the H109 growth, at 45%, addresses this concern and the more
diversifiedfundingbase,shouldensurecontinuedrobustgrowthinthebook.

20%
10%
Morocco

Mauritius

SouthAfrica

Coted'Ivoire

Zambia

Uganda

Kenya

Ghana

Botswana

Nigeria

ZANACO

StanchartZambia

InvestrustZambia

0%

Source: Imara Africa Securities

Depositsgrowthdrivenmyexpansionistmacropolicies.

120%

Weighted Avg exSA

60%
40%
20%

30%

SouthAfrica

Uganda

Kenya

Morocco

Mauritius

Ghana

5%
SouthAfrica

Botswana

Uganda

Ghana

Morocco

Zambia

Mauritius

Coted'Ivoire

Kenya

Nigeria

InvestrustZambia

StanchartZambia

ZANACO

0%

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

Figure16:NonPerformingLoans/Advances(%)

7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%

Weighted Avg exSA

2.0%

WeightedAvgincSA

1.0%

Kenya

Nigeria

Mauritius

Uganda

Zambia

SouthAfrica

Ghana

Botswana

Morocco

Coted'Ivoire

ZANACO

0.0%
InvestrustZambia

Coted'Ivoire

10%

8.0%

Using this proxy it can be concluded that Nigeria, Kenya Cote dIvoire and

Mauritiusaresomeofthebestcapitalisedfinancialmarkets.Onastandalone
basis ZANACOs rating of over 15% raises no concerns. South Africa and

Botswanaareontheoppositeextremityduetotheproportionallyhigherlevel
oflendinginthoseeconomies.

Nigeria

WeightedAvgincSA

Essentially we have not used a discounted weighting for term instruments


(usuallyabout2025%)andhavecompletelyexcludedcashbalances,whichwe

haveassumedriskless.Theresultisastrictermeasure,whoseabsolutevalue
at a lower absolute CAR measure, but that can be used to correctly
arrives
arriveatmeaningfulcomparatives.

Zambia

Weighted Avg exSA

15%

In order to level the regulatory playing field regarding the different


classifications
and risk metrics used in the different countries, we have

calculatedourRoughCapitalAdequacyRatioasfollows:

Figure15:RoughCapitalAdequacyRatio CAR(%)

20%

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

25%

RoughCapitalAdequacyRatio

ShareholdersEquity/(Advances+Terminstruments+OtherAssets)

Botswana

StanchartZambia

ZANACO

0%

Advances/Depositsratioanothermeasureofsolvencyandrisk
We use the proportion of deposits lent out as a proxy to rate liquidity and

growthpotential.Asawhole,duetoaprudentlyhighloantodepositratio,it
looks like Zambia would be pretty much sheltered from any significant

systematicorsectoral(e.g.mining)impairment.Puttingthisintoperspective,
Zimbabwes load to deposit ratio averages 30%, where there is currently no

lenderoflastresort;consequentlyaweightedaverageratioof40%forZambia
is very
comfortable! while on the other extremity, South African banks have
lent out 100% of their deposits, however, they do have recourse of foreign
internationalcapitalliquiditypoolsifneeded.UgandanandKenyanBanks,at

about80%lookquitefull.

WeightedAvgincSA

80%

InvestrustZambia

Figure14:Advances/Deposits(%)

100%

StanchartZambia

Muchofthisdecadehasbeencharacterisedbyhighsingledigitrealgrowthfor

all of the economies covered in our sample. In Zambia, ZANACOs deposits


grewbyahealthy25%in2008.Despitethedropincopperprices,accordingto

theBankofZambia,asatJune2009,monetaryaggregatesweregrowingatan
rate of 20,6% and this should ensure sustained growth in deposits for
annual
thebank.

Source:ImaraAfricaSecurities

Bank

year
end

Botswana
BancABC
BarclaysBotswana
FirstNationalBankofBots.
StanchartBotswana

Coted'Ivoire
EcobankTransnationalInc.

Ghana
StanchartGhana
CalBank

Price

0.0%
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%

0.1%
2.1%
2.8%
2.1%

754
XOF51.00 754

0.9%

2.2%

372
Jan00 29.00 348
Dec08 0.22 23

Weighting Weighting EarningsGrowth Adavances Deposit


PER(x)
T+1
T+2 Growth Growth T+1
T+2
incSA
exSA

2,434
26
717
975
716

Dec08 BWP1.20
Dec08 BWP5.75
Jun08 BWP2.60
Dec08 BWP17.00

Dec08

Market
Capitalisation
(US$m)

0.4%
0.03%

18%
24%
22%
9%
26%

8%
33%
10%
11%
3%

24%
44%
39%
29%
1%

9.0% 3.0%
9%
3%

6%
10.1%
6.8%
3.6%
6.8%

20.4%
20%

23.0% 8.8 8.5


23% 8.8 8.5

1.6%
1.6%

1.7% 0.7
1.7% 0.7

31% 8.1 4.7


31% 8.4 4.7
27% 4.3 3.4

11%
11.9%
1.9%

20% 5.9
21.1% 6.3
2.4% 1.0

33%
16%
54%
60%
34%
5%
42%
7%

6.9
8.1
12.7
6.8
3.5
5.2
5.2
10.0

12%
5.2%
2.1%
29.1%
8.1%
0.0%
2.0%
7.6%

17%
4.9%
2.3%
41.9%
13.6%
0.0%
2.8%
8.4%

83%
90%
15%

74%
77%
25%

69%
70%
46%

1249%
1.7
9.5
14.4
13.3

8.1
0.3
5.3
7.0
12.7

Kenya
BarclaysBankKenya
DiamondTrustBank
EquityBank
KenyaCommercialBank
NationalBankofKenya
NationalIndustrialCreditBank
StanchartKenya

Dec08
Dec07
Dec08
Dec08
Dec07
Dec08
Dec08

2,783
855
103
765
557
89
156
259

1.0%
0.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%

2.5%
0.3%
2.2%
1.6%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%

36%
8%
10%
53%
72%
59%
32%
10%

33%
9%
10%
44%
68%
25%
40%
10%

44%
6%
55%
102%
45%
8%
35%
10%

Mauritius
MauritiusCommercialBank
StateBankofMauritius

1,731
Dec07 MUR131.00 1,033
Jun08 MUR73.00 698

1.2%
0.8%

3.0%
2.0%

32%
34%
29%

43%
32%
61%

18%
18%
18%

21% 7.2 5.3


26% 6.6 8.9
13% 8.2 0.2

5%
4.7%
4.4%

7% 1.6
6.1% 1.5
7.1% 1.7

Morocco
Attijariwafa
BCP
BMCE

13,359
Jan00 MAD271.00 6,639
Jun08 MAD250.00 2,098
Jan00 MAD229.00 4,623

7.9%
2.5%
5.5%

19.3%
6.1%
13.5%

16%
26%
6%
7%

22%
10%
15%
41%

28%
29%
19%
30%

16%
16%
4%
21%

17.9
13.3
10.5
28.0

14.3
12.0
9.2
19.9

2%
2.5%
2.4%
1.4%

2%
2.5%
2.8%
2.0%

4.2
3.5
3.1
5.6

Nigeria
FirstBank
ZenithBank
UBA
Intercontinental
UnionBank
GuarantyTrustBank
AccessBankNigeria
FirstCityMerchantBank
StanbicIBTC

Mar09
Sep08
Sep08
Feb08
Mar08
Feb08
Feb09
Apr08
Dec08

12,021
2,512
1,483
1,789
833
1,211
679
739
1,351
1,423

3.0%
1.8%
2.1%
1.0%
1.4%
0.8%
0.9%
1.6%
1.7%

7.3%
4.3%
5.2%
2.4%
3.5%
2.0%
2.2%
3.9%
4.1%

97%
338%
30%
65%
36%
40%
13%
37%
33%
2%

34%
40%
30%
35%
35%
38%
12%
37%
52%
17%

70%
59%
55%
40%
62%
62%
149%
68%
123%
70%

57%
71%
87%
47%
126%
58%
21%
22%
34%
34%

5.7
7.1
3.5
4.1
2.8
5.2
5.4
4.0
4.3
11.5

4.3
5.1
2.7
3.1
2.1
3.8
4.8
2.9
2.9
9.8

10%
7.0%
16.0%
12.7%
14.5%
7.5%
8.4%
12.5%
9.3%
5.2%

13%
9.8%
20.7%
17.1%
19.5%
10.4%
9.4%
17.1%
14.0%
6.1%

1.0

0.6
2.0
0.5
1.9
1.0
0.6
0.6
2.0

Uganda
DFCUBankLtd
StanbicUganda

461
Dec07 850 58
Dec08 165 403

0.1%
0.5%

0.2%
1.2%

26%
30%
25%

21%
30%
20%

38%
23%
40%

24% 12.0 10.0


56% 7.1 5.4
20% 12.7 10.6

5%
5.7%
5.0%

49,878
11,680
11,216
7,195
19,786

13.9%
13.3%
8.5%
23.5%

38%
35%
88%
0%
25%

26%
35%
19%
14%
30%

19%
17%
15%
16%
24%

22%
23%
16%
21%
24%

7.0
6.3
4.0
8.7
8.5

5.6
4.8
3.3
7.6
6.5

6%
1.9%
10.0%
5.8%
5.0%

7%
2.4%
11.9%
6.6%
6.5%

1.3
1.5
1.1
1.3
1.4

415
Dec08 339 289
Dec08 17 10
Dec08 480 116

0.3%
0.0%
0.1%

0.8%
0.0%
0.3%

72%
35%
0%
171%

31%
33%
0%
28%

23%
30%
39%
5%

29%
30%
35%
27%

8.0
9.7
4.7
4.1

6.1
7.3
4.2
3.2

6%
4.3%
7.4%
8.9%

7%
5.1%
7.4%
11.4%

2.8
3.3
1.9
1.4

100%

100%

42%
48%

27%
27%

29%
44%

27% 8.8 7.0


34% 11.5 9.2

5.8%
6.2%

KES48.00
72.50
15.75
21.25
KES40.00
33.75
KES145.00

NGN15.80
NGN13.85
NGN12.98
NGN7.03
NGN14.02
NGN11.87
NGN7.03
NGN5.33
NGN7.50

SouthAfrica
ABSA
FirstRand
Nedbank
StandardBank

Dec08
Dec08
Dec08
Dec08

Zambia
StanchartZambia
InvestrustZambia
ZANACO

126
15
114
99

WeightedAverage
WeightedAverageexSouthAfricanBanks

84,208
34,330

8.7
8.8
13.9
9.8
5.9
6.5
7.3
11.0

6%
11.0%
7.5%
4.2%
7.0%

PBV
2009F

1129%
1.2
8.6
12.3
12.9

1.0%
0.07%

34%
80%
34%
45%
18%

Dividendyield(%)
T+1
T+2

2.3
2.6
1.7
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.6
3.4

6% 5.0
7.4% 1.5
6.0% 5.5

7.3% 2.0
8.2% 3.0


Effective Advances/
NPL/ Provexp/
Total
Total Atributable
Net
Assets Income
Income
interest Cost/income taxrate Deposits Advances Advances
(US$m) (US$m) (US$m)
margin
ratio

5,608
580
2,029
1,680
1,319

RoA

Advances Rough
/Equity CAR

3%
2.2%
3.0%
3.3%
3.2%

710%
5.1
7.2
5.5
9.3

7%
13%
7%
7%
4%

1% 3.6
1% 3.6

19%
19%

42%
59.2%
47.7%
37.1%
43.6%

20%
28.1%
22.4%
16.7%
21.1%

8,306 826 94
8,306 826.1 94.1

9%
8.7%

67%
67%

32%
32%

6.8%
6.7%
7.7%

58.6%
59.4%
47.1%

24.9%
25.0%
23.4%

68.4%
65.4%
112.8%

0.4%
0.0%
5.7%

0.5%
0.5%
0.7%

276
89.3
9.0
51.3
55.0
14.7
13.6
42.7

8.5%
8.3%
6.1%
10.5%
6.8%
9.5%
5.0%
9.0%

55.0%
60.6%
51.1%
52.2%
55.7%
52.9%
47.4%
49.4%

27.0%
26.8%
29.9%
22.1%
30.3%
30.5%
30.1%
31.1%

80.4%
91.0%
79.7%
87.8%
73.8%
22.6%
85.0%
54.9%

5.1%
0.0%
1.8%
4.0%
11.1%
34.6%
3.9%
4.0%

1.8%
0.0%
0.5%
2.3%
4.0%
7.6%
0.7%
1.0%

1%
1.4%
26.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%

4.1
5.6
4.2
2.3
4.4
1.6
5.4
3.8

24%
13%
17%
48%
16%
13%
15%
13%

6,316 387 183


4,188 255.5 116.3
2,128 131.1 66.6

2.8%
3.2%
2.4%

37.1%
39.8%
33.1%

12.5%
12.9%
11.8%

69.0%
72.6%
63.7%

2.2%
2.0%
2.4%

0.8%
0.5%
1.1%

11% 21.3% 2.9% 4.1


18.9% 22.6% 2.8% 4.7
0.0% 19.3% 3.1% 3.2

16%
13%
20%

0% 16.4% 1.2% 7.7


0.0% 16.6% 1.2% 8.2
0.0% 8.7% 0.8% 5.6
0.0% 19.5% 1.3% 8.0

9%
9%
12%
9%

Mauritius
MauritiusCommercialBank
StateBankofMauritius

Morocco
Attijariwafa
BCP
BMCE

1.9
2.2
1.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
1.8
2.3
1.4
1.2

27%
18%
56%
21%
25%
19%
26%
26%
31%
24%

Nigeria
FirstBank
ZenithBank
UBA
Intercontinental
UnionBank
GuarantyTrustBank
AccessBankNigeria
FirstCityMerchantBank
StanbicIBTC

31% 15.9% 1.1% 7.1


244.2% 16.0% 2.2% 3.8
0.0% 15.9% 0.9% 7.5

8%
21%
6%

Uganda
DFCUBankLtd
StanbicUganda

913 31 11
716 15.4 5.7
197 15.4 5.7

8,296
2,215
472
697
2,509
543
559
1,299

1,033
310.1
31.7
165.9
288.0
61.4
41.9
133.6

0%
6.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

1%
2.0%
1.1%
0.5%
1.5%

77%
137.0%
122.8%
44.8%
72.7%

63%
19.6%
55.3%
51.6%
87.2%

65%
65%
0%

3%
3%

33%
33%

9%
9%

Bank

6%
6.9%
8.3%
2.7%
7.0%

42%
79.7%
46.5%
40.1%
39.1%

RoE

172
12.5
61.7
54.7
42.8

414
27.0
169.0
109.4
108.5

Debt/
Equity

68,533
32,870
23,399
12,263

2,521
1,393.6
524.4
602.6

739
395.8
188.6
154.4

3.5%
3.3%
2.3%
4.4%

41.9%
44.1%
36.1%
41.4%

33.1%
33.9%
33.4%
31.8%

75.7%
86.9%
68.9%
62.8%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

1.0%
0.4%
0.4%
2.0%

65,593
12,853
11,433
10,698
8,903
7,225
4,705
4,542
2,988
2,246

5,607
1,027.8
989.2
820.0
809.8
550.0
397.0
462.4
278.7
272.6

1,494
80.4
330.0
263.7
217.4
164.6
133.0
134.5
96.5
73.9

6.6%
4.8%
4.2%
9.8%
6.2%
6.3%
4.2%
5.5%
3.7%
13.4%

58.5%
72.3%
59.6%
60.5%
57.1%
54.9%
49.6%
52.1%
45.7%
53.9%

25.7%
54.6%
7.4%
15.0%
23.8%
18.7%
22.6%
20.5%
26.4%
18.0%

59.8%
62.0%
38.5%
33.6%
42.6%
29.5%
79.0%
99.3%
74.2%
103.3%

3.5%
0.0%
1.7%
3.6%
3.7%
13.2%
1.3%
2.3%
2.8%
5.2%

2.1%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
1.9%
2.2%
1.4%
2.0%
1.7%
5.1%

363 57 11
181 21.0 3.9
181 36.1 6.6

3.3%
3.3%
3.3%

71.0%
74.7%
70.5%

27.9%
31.6%
27.3%

83.3%
120.8%
78.0%

2.0%
16.2%
0.0%

0.1%
0.7%
0.0%

66% 38.3% 3.0% 5.3


9%
52.2% 39.2% 3.1% 5.3 0.1
271.3% 24.0% 2.9% 4.7
14%

9%
10.4%
10.0%
0.0%
10.1%
0.0%
9.7%
4.9%
18.4%
18.4%

24.6%
33.3%
12.6%
20.0%
19.9%
22.5%
18.8%
28.3%

13.6%
3.7%
15.0%
21.4%
17.0%
21.6%
13.0%
11.4%
11.3%
14.3%

4.3%
4.0%
1.9%
7.4%
2.2%
2.7%
2.4%
3.3%

2.3%
0.6%
2.9%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%

BancABC
BarclaysBotswana
FirstNationalBankofBots.
StanchartBotswana

Coted'Ivoire
EcobankTransnationalInc.

Ghana
StanchartGhana
CalBank

Kenya
BarclaysBankKenya
DiamondTrustBank
EquityBank
KenyaCommercialBank
NationalBankofKenya
NationalIndustrialCreditBank
StanchartKenya

471,867
99,635
105,597
73,014
193,622

24,497
5,535
5,982
3,581
9,400

5,560
1,363.9
1,508.9
825.4
1,862.1

0.4%
2.4%
1.2%
3%
0.6%

52.9%
51.0%
56.4%
49%
53.2%

24.7%
26.1%
20.0%
24%
26.7%

103.6%
139.2%
91.4%
93%
93.4%

1.1%
1.7%
0.0%
2%
1.1%

1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1%
1.4%

127%
449.7%
28.6%
40%
24.6%

21.2%
28.2%
24.1%
18%
16.5%

1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1%
1.0%

10.7
14.2
9.2
12.4
9.0

6%
6%
6%
7%
6%

SouthAfrica
ABSA
FirstRand
Nedbank
StandardBank

1,281
586
87
607

147
52.5
11.4
83.2

29
15.4
2.8
10.8

7.6%
5.6%
10.5%
12.4%

56.3%
50.6%
59.6%
70%

35.4%
34.4%
16.2%
40%

44.7%
45.0%
53.9%
43%

2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7%

1.7%
1.1%
3.3%
3.2%

14%
1.2%
101.4%
37.2%

29.2%
34.1%
39.4%
16.1%

2.4%
2.6%
3.2%
1.8%

4.5
5.1
5.1
3.1

14%
13%
12%
18%

Zambia
StanchartZambia
InvestrustZambia
ZANACO

637,076 35,519 8,568


165,209 11,022 3,008

2.4%
5.3%

51.6%
49.9%

26.0%
27.9%

88.8%
67.2%

1.4%
1.8%

1.3%
1.5%

80.1% 20.7% 1.6% 8.4 10.5%


11.4% 19.8% 2.1% 5.0 17.0%

Africa
Imara
Securities

Block A, Unit 3
Millennium Office
Park

Kgale Hill,
Gaborone
Botswana
Tel: +267
3188710
Fax: +267
3191767

Imara Securities
Angola SCVM
Limitada
Rua Rainha
th
Ginga 74, 13
Floor,
Luanda,
Angola

Tel: +244 222


372 029/36
Fax: +244 222
332 340

Imara Edwards
Securities (Pvt.)
Ltd.
Tendeseka Office
Park
st
1 Floor Block 2
Samora Machel
Avenue
Harare,
Zimbabwe
Tel: +263 4
790590
Fax: +263 4
791435
4 Fanum House
Cnr. Leopold
Takawira/Josiah
Tongogara Street
Bulawayo
Tel: +263 9
74554
Fax: +263 9
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Imara S P Reid
(Pty)
Ltd
Imara House
257 Oxford Road
Illovo 2146
P.O. Box 969
Johannesburg
2000
South Africa
Tel: +27 11 550
6200
Fax: +27 11 550
6295
Member of the
JSE Securities
Exchange

Stockbrokers
Malawi Ltd
Able House
Cnr. Hanover
Avenue/
Chilembwe Road
Blantyre
Malawi
Tel: +265
1822803
Member of the
Malawi Stock
Exchange

Namibia Equity
Brokers (Pty)
Ltd
1st Floor City
Centre
Building, West
Wing
Levinson Arcade
Windhoek
Namibia
Tel: +264 61
246666
Fax: +264
61256789
Member of the
Namibia Stock
Exchange

Stockbrokers
Zambia Ltd
2nd Floor, Design
House
P O Box 38956
Lusaka
Zambia
Tel: +260
1227303
Fax:
+2601221055
Member of the
Zambia
Stock Exchange

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ImaraCapital2003

10