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The following is a review of the Quantitative Analysis principles designed to address the AIM statements set

forth by GARP

®

. This topic is also covered in:

Review of Statistics

Topic 13

Exam Focus

Statistical inference involves two areas: estimation and hypothesis testing. This topic

provides insight into how risk managers make portfolio decisions on the basis of statistical

analysis of samples of investment returns or other random economic and ﬁnancial variables.

We ﬁrst focus on the construction of conﬁdence intervals for population parameters based

on sample statistics. We then discuss hypothesis testing procedures used to conduct tests

concerned with population means and population variances. Speciﬁc tests reviewed include

the z-test and the t-test. For the exam, you should be able to construct and interpret a

conﬁdence interval and you should know when and how to apply each of the test statistics

discussed when conducting hypothesis testing.

Statistical inference is the process of making estimates and testing claims about the

characteristics of a population. There are two areas of statistical inference: estimation and

hypothesis testing. In the previous topic, we introduced conﬁdence intervals. In this topic,

we will expand the discussion of conﬁdence intervals as a tool to evaluate population

parameters on the basis of sample statistics. We will then examine hypothesis testing which

is the testing of claims about population parameters.

Estimator vs. Parameter

AIM 13.1: Describe and interpret estimators of the sample mean and their

properties.

In many real-world statistics applications, it is impractical (or impossible) to study an

entire population. When this is the case, a subgroup of the population, called a sample

(or estimator) can be evaluated. Based on this sample, the parameters of the underlying

population can be estimated.

For example, rather than attempting to measure the performance of the U.S. stock market

by observing the performance of all 10,000 or so stocks trading in the United States at any

one time, the performance of the subgroup of 500 stocks in the S&P 500 can be measured.

The results of the statistical analysis of this sample can then be used to draw conclusions

about the entire population of U.S. stocks.

Ideally, we would like our estimator to be as accurate as possible (compared to the unknown

true value). As we will discuss shortly, there are three desirable properties that we would like

our estimator to display: unbiasedness, consistency, and efﬁciency.

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Topic 13

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Point Estimates

AIM 13.4: Deﬁne, calculate and interpret a conﬁdence interval.

AIM 13.5: Describe the properties of point estimators:

· Distinguish between unbiased and biased estimators.

· Dehne an efhcient estimator and consistent estimator.

Point estimates are single (sample) values used to estimate population parameters. The

formula used to compute the point estimate is called the estimator. For example, the sample

mean, x, is an estimator of the population mean µ and is computed as follows:

x

x

n

=

_

The value generated with this calculation for a given sample is called the point estimate of

the mean.

Recall the discussion of conﬁdence intervals from the previous topic. Since we are evaluating

sample data we replace the standard deviation, s, in the formula from the previous topic

with the standard error of the point estimate.

Conﬁdence interval estimates result in a range of values within which the actual value

of a parameter will lie, given the probability of 1 – o. Here, alpha, o, is called the level

of signiﬁcance for the conﬁdence interval, and the probability 1 – o is referred to as the

degree of conﬁdence. For example, we might estimate that the population mean of random

variables will range from 15 to 25 with a 95% degree of conﬁdence, or at the 5% level of

signiﬁcance.

Conﬁdence intervals are usually constructed by adding or subtracting an appropriate value

from the point estimate. In general, conﬁdence intervals take on the following form:

point estimate ± (reliability factor × standard error)

where:

point estimate = value of a sample statistic of the population parameter

reliability factor = number that depends on the sampling distribution of the point

estimate and the probability that the point estimate falls within the

conﬁdence interval, (1 – o)

standard error = standard error of the point estimate

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Topic 13

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Regardless of whether we are concerned with point estimates or conﬁdence intervals, there

are certain statistical properties that make some estimates more desirable than others. These

desirable properties of an estimator are unbiasedness, efﬁciency, and consistency.

An s unbiased estimator is one for which the expected value of the estimator is equal to

the parameter you are trying to estimate. For example, because the expected value of

the sample mean is equal to the population mean E x ( ) =

l

l

µ , the sample mean is an

unbiased estimator of the population mean. If this is not the case, then the estimators are

biased.

An unbiased estimator is also s efﬁcient if the variance of its sampling distribution is

smaller than all the other unbiased estimators of the parameter you are trying to

estimate. The sample mean, for example, is an unbiased and efﬁcient estimator of the

population mean.

A s consistent estimator is one for which the accuracy of the parameter estimate increases

as the sample size increases. As the sample size increases, the standard error of the sample

mean falls, and the sampling distribution bunches more closely around the population

mean. In fact, as the sample size approaches inﬁnity, the standard error approaches zero.

Another property of a point estimate is linearity. A point estimate should be a linear

estimator (i.e., it can be used as a linear function of the sample data). If the estimator is

the best available (i.e., has the minimum variance), exhibits linearity, and is unbiased, it is

said to be the best linear unbiased estimator. The acronym used to describe this type of

estimator is BLUE.

AIM 13.2: Describe and interpret the least squares estimator.

In regression analysis, the line of best ﬁt through a scatter plot of sample data attempts

to minimize the sum of the squared differences between the actual data points and the

predicted linear regression. The values estimated in the line of best ﬁt in regression analysis

are termed least squares estimators. Least squares estimation, therefore, will ﬁnd the

intercept and slope of the line through a data set that minimizes the variance of the residual

terms (i.e., the difference between each observation and its corresponding conditional

expectation).

T-Values

AIM 13.3: Deﬁne, interpret, and calculate the t-statistic.

As introduced in the previous topic, the t-distribution is a bell-shaped probability

distribution that is symmetrical about its mean. It is the appropriate distribution to use

when constructing conﬁdence intervals based on small samples (n < 30) from populations

with unknown variance and a normal, or approximately normal, distribution. It may also

be appropriate to use the t-distribution when the population variance is unknown and the

sample size is large enough that the central limit theorem will assure that the sampling

distribution is approximately normal.

The table in Figure 1 contains one-tailed critical values for the t-distribution at the 0.05

and 0.025 levels of signiﬁcance with various degrees of freedom (df ). Note that, unlike the

z-table, the t-values are contained within the table, and the probabilities are located at the

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Topic 13

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column headings. Also note that the level of signiﬁcance of a t-test corresponds to the one-

tailed probabilities, p, that head the columns in the t-table.

Table of Critical Figure 1: t-Values

One-Tailed Probabilities, p

df p = 0.05 p = 0.025

5 2.015 2.571

10 1.812 2.228

15 1.753 2.131

20 1.725 2.086

25 1.708 2.060

30 1.697 2.042

40 1.684 2.021

50 1.676 2.009

60 1.671 2.000

70 1.667 1.994

80 1.664 1.990

90 1.662 1.987

100 1.660 1.984

120 1.658 1.980

· 1.645 1.960

Professor’s Note: For the exam, expect critical t-values to be provided. You

will most likely be given a partial t-table and asked to utilize the appropriate

information. The only critical values you need to memorize for the exam are

the most commonly used z-values at 90%, 95%, and 99% for both one-tailed

and two-tailed tests. Those values are shown in Figure 7 later in this topic.

Population vs. Sample Mean

To compute the population mean, all the observed values in the population are summed

(∑X) and divided by the number of observations in the population, N. Note that the

population mean is unique in that a given population only has one mean. The population

mean is expressed as:

µ =

=

_

X

N

i

i

N

1

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Topic 13

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The sample mean is the sum of all the values in a sample of a population, ∑X, divided

by the number of observations in the sample, n. It is used to make inferences about the

population mean. The sample mean is expressed as:

X

X

n

i

i

n

=

=

_

1

Note the use of n, the sample size, versus N, the population size.

Sample Variance, Sample Standard Deviation, and Standard Error

AIM 13.7: Deﬁne, calculate, and interpret the sample variance, sample standard

deviation, and standard error.

The population variance is deﬁned as the average of the squared deviations from the

mean. The population variance (o

2

) uses the values for all members of a population and is

calculated using the following formula:

o

µ

2

2

1

=

÷

=

_

( ) X

N

i

i

N

The computed variance is in terms of squared units of measurement. How does one

interpret squared percents, squared dollars, or squared yen? This problem is mitigated

through the use of the standard deviation. The population standard deviation, o, is the

square root of the population variance.

The sample variance, s

2

, is the measure of dispersion that applies when we are evaluating

a sample of n observations from a population. The sample variance is calculated using the

following formula:

s

X X

n

i

i

n

2 1

2

1

=

÷

÷

=

_

( )

The most noteworthy difference from the formula for population variance is that the

denominator for s

2

is n – 1, one less than the sample size n, where σ

2

uses the entire

population size N. Another difference is the use of the sample mean, X , instead of the

population mean, μ. Based on the mathematical theory behind statistical procedures,

the use of the entire number of sample observations, n, instead of n – 1 as the divisor in

the computation of s

2

, will systematically underestimate the population parameter, σ

2

,

particularly for small sample sizes. This systematic underestimation causes the sample

variance to be what is referred to as a biased estimator of the population variance. Using

n – 1 instead of n in the denominator, however, improves the statistical properties of s

2

as an estimator of σ

2

. Thus, s

2

, as expressed in the equation above, is considered to be an

unbiased estimator of σ

2

.

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Topic 13

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Example: Sample variance

Assume the following annualized total returns represent a sample of the managers at a

large investment ﬁrm (30%, 25%, 23%, 20%, 12%). What is the sample variance of these

returns?

Answer:

X =

÷ ÷ ÷ ÷ [ [

=

30 12 25 20 23

5

22%

s

2

2 2 2 2 2

30 22 12 22 25 22 20 22 23 22

5 1

4 =

÷ ( ) ÷ ÷ ( ) ÷ ÷ ( ) ÷ ÷ ( ) ÷ ÷ ( )

l

l

l

÷

= 44 5

2

. %

( )

Thus, the sample variance of 44.5(%

2

) can be interpreted to be an unbiased estimator of

the population variance.

As with the population standard deviation, the sample standard deviation can be calculated

by taking the square root of the sample variance. The sample standard deviation, s, is

deﬁned as:

s

X X

n

i

i

n

=

÷

÷

=

_

( )

1

2

1

Example: Sample standard deviation

Compute the sample standard deviation based on the result of the preceding example.

Answer:

Since the sample variance for the preceding example was computed to be 44.5(%

2

), the

sample standard deviation is:

s = [44.5(%

2

)]

1/2

= 6.67%

The results shown here mean that the sample standard deviation, s = 6.67%, can be

interpreted as an unbiased estimator of the population standard deviation, σ.

The standard error of the sample mean is the standard deviation of the distribution of the

sample means.

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When the standard deviation of the population, o, is known, the standard error of the

sample mean is calculated as:

o

o

x

n

=

where:

o

x

= standard error of the sample mean

o = standard deviation of the population

n = size of the sample

Example: Standard error of sample mean (known population variance)

The mean hourly wage for Iowa farm workers is $13.50 with a population standard

deviation of $2.90. Calculate and interpret the standard error of the sample mean for a

sample size of 30.

Answer:

Because the population standard deviation, o, is known, the standard error of the sample

mean is expressed as:

o

o

x

n

= = =

$ .

$ .

2 90

30

0 53

Professor’s Note: On the TI BAII Plus, the use of the square root key is obvious. On

the HP 12C, the square root of 30 is computed as: [30] [g] [

x

].

This means that if we were to take all possible samples of size 30 from the Iowa farm

worker population and prepare a sampling distribution of the sample means, we would

get a distribution with a mean of $13.50 and standard error of $0.53.

Practically speaking, the population’s standard deviation is almost never known. Instead, the

standard error of the sample mean must be estimated by dividing the standard deviation

of the sample mean by n :

s

s

n

x

=

Professor’s Note: Use this when the population variance is unknown.

where:

s

x

= standard error of the sample mean

s = standard deviation of the sample =

X X

n

i

i

n

÷ ( )

÷

=

_

2

1

1

n = size of the sample

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Topic 13

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Example: Standard error of sample mean (unknown population variance)

Suppose a sample contains the past 30 monthly returns for McCreary, Inc. The mean

return is 2% and the sample standard deviation is 20%. Calculate and interpret the

standard error of the sample mean.

Answer:

Since o is unknown, the standard error of the sample mean is:

s

s

n

x

= = =

20

30

3 6

%

. %

This implies that if we took all possible samples of size 30 from McCreary’s monthly

returns and prepared a sampling distribution of the sample means, the mean would be 2%

with a standard error of 3.6%.

Professor’s Note: Regarding when to use o and o/ n , just remember that the

standard deviation of the mean of many observations is less than the standard

deviation of a single observation. If the standard deviation of monthly stock returns

is 2%, the standard error (deviation) of the average monthly return over the next

six months is 2%/ 6 = 0.82%. The average of several observations of a random

variable will be less widely dispersed (have lower standard deviation) around the

expected value than will a single observation of the random variable.

Confidence Intervals

AIM 13.8: Deﬁne, calculate, and interpret conﬁdence intervals for the population

mean.

If the population has a normal distribution with a known variance, a conﬁdence interval for

the population mean based on a given conﬁdence level (a.k.a. conﬁdence coefﬁcient) can be

calculated as:

x z

n

±

o

o

/2

where:

x = point estimate of the population mean (sample mean)

z

o/2

= reliability factor, a standard normal random variable for which the probability in

the right-hand tail of the distribution is o/2. In other words, this is the z-score

that leaves o/2 of probability in the upper tail

o

n

= the standard error of the sample mean where o is the known standard deviation

of the population, and n is the sample size

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The most commonly used standard normal distribution reliability factors are:

z

o/2

= 1.645 for 90% conﬁdence intervals (the signiﬁcance level is 10%, 5% in each

tail)

z

o/2

= 1.960 for 95% conﬁdence intervals (the signiﬁcance level is 5%, 2.5% in each

tail)

z

o/2

= 2.575 for 99% conﬁdence intervals (the signiﬁcance level is 1%, 0.5% in each

tail)

Do these numbers look familiar? They should! In our previous topic, we found the

probability under the standard normal curve between z = –1.96 and z = +1.96 to be 0.95,

or 95%. Owing to symmetry, this leaves a probability of 0.025 under each tail of the

curve beyond z = –1.96 of z = +1.96, for a total of 0.05, or 5%—just what we need for a

signiﬁcance level of 0.05, or 5%.

Example: Conﬁdence interval

Consider a practice exam that was administered to 100 FRM candidates. The mean

score on this practice exam was 80 for all 36 of the candidates in the sample who studied

at least ten hours a week in preparation for the exam. Assuming a population standard

deviation equal to 15, construct and interpret a 99% conﬁdence interval for the mean

score on the practice exam for 36 candidates who study at least ten hours a week. Note

that in this example the population standard deviation is known, so we don’t have to estimate

it.

Answer:

At a conﬁdence level of 99%, z

o/2

= z

0.005

= 2.575. So, the 99% conﬁdence interval is

calculated as follows:

x z

n

± = ± = ±

o

o

/

. .

2

80 2 575

15

36

80 6 4

Thus, the 99% conﬁdence interval ranges from 73.6 to 86.4.

Conﬁdence intervals can be interpreted from a probabilistic perspective or a practical

perspective. With regard to the outcome of the FRM practice exam example, these two

perspectives can be described as follows:

Probabilistic interpretation s . After repeatedly taking samples of FRM candidates who

studied ten hours or more per week, administering the practice exam, and constructing

conﬁdence intervals for each sample’s mean, 99% of the resulting conﬁdence intervals

will, in the long run, include the population mean.

Practical interpretation s . We are 99% conﬁdent that the population mean score is between

73.6 and 86.4 for candidates who study more than ten hours per week.

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Topic 13

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Conﬁdence Intervals for the Population Mean: Normal With Unknown Variance

If the distribution of the population is normal with unknown variance, we can use the

t-distribution to construct a conﬁdence interval. This is known as a random interval since it

will vary from one sample to the next.

x t

s

n

±

o/2

where:

x = the point estimate of the population mean

t

o /2

= the t-reliability factor (a.k.a. t-statistic or critical t-value) corresponding to a

t-distributed random variable with n – 1 degrees of freedom, where n is the

sample size. The area under the tail of the t-distribution to the right of t

o /2

is

o/2

s

n

= standard error of the sample mean

s = sample standard deviation

Unlike the standard normal distribution, the reliability factors for the t-distribution

depend on the sample size, so we can’t rely on a commonly used set of reliability factors.

Instead, reliability factors for the t-distribution have to be looked up in a table of Student’s

t-distribution, like the one at the back of this book.

Owing to the relatively fatter tails of the t-distribution, conﬁdence intervals constructed

using t-reliability factors (t

o/2

) will be more conservative (wider) than those constructed

using z-reliability factors (z

o/2

).

Example: Conﬁdence intervals

Assume we took a sample of the past 30 monthly stock returns for McCreary, Inc. and

determined that the mean return is 2% and the sample standard deviation is 20%. Since

the population variance is unknown, the standard error of the sample is estimated to be:

s

s

n

x

= = =

20

30

3 6

%

. %

Now, let’s construct a 95% conﬁdence interval for the mean monthly return.

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Answer:

Here we will use the t-reliability factor because the population variance is unknown. Since

there are 30 observations, the degrees of freedom are 29 = 30 – 1. Remember, because

this is a two-tailed test at the 95% conﬁdence level, the probability under each tail must

be o/2 = 2.5%, for a total of 5%. So, referencing the one-tailed probabilities for Student’s

t-distribution at the back of this book, we ﬁnd the critical t-value (reliability factor) for

o/2 = 0.025 and df = 29 to be t

29, 2.5

= 2.045. Thus, the 95% conﬁdence interval for the

population mean is:

2 2 045

20

30

2 2 045 3 6 2 7 4 % .

%

% . . % % . % ±

í

(

·

·

·

\

)

= ± ( ) = ±

Thus, the 95% conﬁdence interval has a lower limit of –5.4% and an upper limit of

+9.4%.

We can interpret this conﬁdence interval by saying that we are 95% conﬁdent that the

population mean monthly return for McCreary stock is between –5.4% and +9.4%.

Professor’s Note: You should practice looking up reliability factors (a.k.a. critical

t-values or t-statistics) in a t-table. The ﬁrst step is always to compute the degrees of

freedom, which is n – 1. The second step is to ﬁnd the appropriate level of alpha or

signiﬁcance. This depends on whether the test you’re concerned with is one-tailed

(use α) or two-tailed (use α/2). When conﬁdence intervals are designed to compute

an upper and lower limit, we will use α/2. To look up t

29, 2.5

, ﬁnd the 29 df row

and match it with the 0.025 column; t = 2.045 is the result. We’ll do more of this in

our study of hypothesis testing.

Conﬁdence Interval for a Population Mean When the Population Variance Is

Unknown Given a Large Sample From Any Type of Distribution

We now know that the z-statistic should be used to construct conﬁdence intervals when

the population distribution is normal and the variance is known, and the t-statistic should

be used when the distribution is normal but the variance is unknown. But what do we do

when the distribution is nonnormal?

As it turns out, the size of the sample inﬂuences whether or not we can construct the

appropriate conﬁdence interval for the sample mean.

If the s distribution is nonnormal but the population variance is known, the z-statistic can be

used as long as the sample size is large (n _ 30). We can do this because the central limit

theorem assures us that the distribution of the sample mean is approximately normal

when the sample is large.

If the s distribution is nonnormal and the population variance is unknown, the t-statistic

can be used as long as the sample size is large (n _ 30). It is also acceptable to use the

z-statistic, although use of the t-statistic is more conservative.

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This means that if we are sampling from a nonnormal distribution (which is sometimes the

case in ﬁnance), we cannot create a conﬁdence interval if the sample size is less than 30. So, all

else equal, make sure you have a sample of at least 30, and the larger, the better.

Criteria for Selecting the Appropriate Test Statistic Figure 2:

When sampling from a:

Test Statistic

Small Sample

(n < 30)

Large Sample

(n _ 30)

Normal distribution with known variance z-statistic z-statistic

Normal distribution with unknown variance t-statistic t-statistic*

Nonnormal distribution with known variance not available z-statistic

Nonnormal distribution with unknown variance not available t-statistic*

*The z-statistic is theoretically acceptable here, but use of the t-statistic is more conservative.

All of the preceding analysis depends on the sample we draw from the population being

random. If the sample isn’t random, the central limit theorem doesn’t apply, our estimates

won’t have the desirable properties, and we can’t form unbiased conﬁdence intervals.

Surprisingly, creating a random sample is not as easy as one might believe. There are a

number of potential mistakes in sampling methods that can bias the results. These biases are

particularly problematic in ﬁnancial research, where available historical data are plentiful,

but the creation of new sample data by experimentation is restricted.

Hypothesis Testing

AIM 13.6: Explain and apply the process of hypothesis testing:

· Dehne and interpret the nu|| hypothesis and the a|ternative hypothesis.

· Distinguish between one-sided and two-sided hypotheses.

· Describe the conhdence interva| approach to hypothesis testing.

· Describe the test of signihcance approach to hypothesis testing.

· Dehne, ca|cu|ate and interpret type I and type II errors.

· Dehne and interpret the p va|ue.

Hypothesis testing is the statistical assessment of a statement or idea regarding a population.

For instance, a statement could be as follows: “The mean return for the U.S. equity market

is greater than zero.” Given the relevant returns data, hypothesis testing procedures can be

employed to test the validity of this statement at a given signiﬁcance level.

A hypothesis is a statement about the value of a population parameter developed for the

purpose of testing a theory or belief. Hypotheses are stated in terms of the population

parameter to be tested, like the population mean, µ. For example, a researcher may be

interested in the mean daily return on stock options. Hence, the hypothesis may be that the

mean daily return on a portfolio of stock options is positive.

Hypothesis testing procedures, based on sample statistics and probability theory, are used

to determine whether a hypothesis is a reasonable statement and should not be rejected or

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Topic 13

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if it is an unreasonable statement and should be rejected. The process of hypothesis testing

consists of a series of steps shown in Figure 3.

Hypothesis Testing Procedure Figure 3:

1

The Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis

The null hypothesis, designated H

0

, is the hypothesis that the researcher wants to reject. It

is the hypothesis that is actually tested and is the basis for the selection of the test statistics.

The null is generally stated as a simple statement about a population parameter. Typical

statements of the null hypothesis for the population mean include H

0

: µ = µ

0

, H

0

: µ _ µ

0

,

and H

0

: µ _ µ

0

, where µ is the population mean and µ

0

is the hypothesized value of the

population mean. The null hypothesis always includes the = sign.

The alternative hypothesis, designated H

A

, is what is concluded if there is sufﬁcient

evidence to reject the null hypothesis. It is usually the alternative hypothesis that you are

really trying to assess. Why? Since you can never really prove anything with statistics, when

the null hypothesis is discredited, the implication is that the alternative hypothesis is valid.

One-Tailed and Two-Tailed Tests of Hypotheses

The alternative hypothesis can be one-sided or two-sided. A one-sided test is referred to as

a one-tailed test, and a two-sided test is referred to as a two-tailed test. Whether the test

is one- or two-sided depends on the proposition being tested. If a researcher wants to test

whether the return on stock options is greater than zero, a one-tailed test should be used.

However, a two-tailed test should be used if the research question is whether the return on

options is simply different from zero. Two-sided tests allow for deviation on both sides of

the hypothesized value (zero). In practice, most hypothesis tests are constructed as two-

tailed tests.

A two-tailed test for the population mean may be structured as:

H

0

: µ = µ

0

versus H

A

: µ = µ

0

1. Wayne W. Daniel and James C. Terrell, Business Statistics, Basic Concepts and

Methodology, Houghton Mifﬂin, Boston, 1997.

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Topic 13

Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Stock & Watson, Chapter 3

Since the alternative hypothesis allows for values above and below the hypothesized

parameter, a two-tailed test uses two critical values.

The general decision rule for a two-tailed test is:

Reject H

0

if: test statistic > upper critical value or

test statistic < lower critical value

Let’s look at the development of the decision rule for a two-tailed test using a z-distributed

test statistic (a z-test) at a 5% level of signiﬁcance, o = 0.05.

At s o = 0.05, the computed test statistic is compared with the critical z-values of ±1.96.

The values of ±1.96 correspond to ±z

o/2

= ±z

0.025

, which is the range of z-values within

which 95% of the probability lies. These values are obtained from the cumulative

probability table for the standard normal distribution (z-table), which is included at the

back of this book.

If the computed test statistic falls outside the range of critical s z-values (i.e., test statistic >

1.96, or test statistic < –1.96), we reject the null and conclude that the sample statistic is

sufﬁciently different from the hypothesized value.

If the computed test statistic falls within the range ±1.96, we conclude that the sample s

statistic is not sufﬁciently different from the hypothesized value (µ = µ

0

in this case), and

we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

The decision rule (rejection rule) for a two-tailed z-test at o = 0.05 can be stated as:

Reject H

0

if test statistic < –1.96 or if test statistic > 1.96.

Figure 4 shows the standard normal distribution for a two-tailed hypothesis test using the

z-distribution. Notice that the signiﬁcance level of 0.05 means that there is 0.05 / 2 = 0.025

probability (area) under each tail of the distribution beyond ±1.96.

Two-Tailed Hypothesis Test Using the Standard Normal ( Figure 4: z) Distribution

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Topic 13

Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Stock & Watson, Chapter 3

Example: Two-tailed test

A researcher has gathered data on the daily returns on a portfolio of call options over a

recent 250-day period. The mean daily return has been 0.1%, and the sample standard

deviation of daily portfolio returns is 0.25%. The researcher believes that the mean daily

portfolio return is not equal to zero. Construct a hypothesis test of the researcher’s belief.

Assume the test statistic is equal to 6.33.

Answer:

First we need to specify the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis is the one

the researcher expects to reject.

H

0

: µ

0

= 0 versus H

A

: µ

0

= 0

Since the null hypothesis is an equality, this is a two-tailed test. At a 5% level of

signiﬁcance, the critical z-values for a two-tailed test are ±1.96, so the decision rule can be

stated as:

Reject H

0

if +1.96 < test statistic or if test statistic < –1.96

Our test statistic is 6.33

Since 6.33 > 1.96, we reject the null hypothesis that the mean daily option return is

equal to zero. Note that when we reject the null, we conclude that the sample value is

signiﬁcantly different from the hypothesized value. We are saying that the two values

are different from one another after considering the variation in the sample. That is, the

mean daily return of 0.001 is statistically different from zero given the sample’s standard

deviation and size.

For a one-tailed hypothesis test of the population mean, the null and alternative hypotheses

are either:

Upper tail: H

0

: µ _ µ

0

versus H

A

: µ > µ

0

, or

Lower tail: H

0

: µ _ µ

0

versus H

A

: µ < µ

0

The appropriate set of hypotheses depends on whether we believe the population mean,

µ, to be greater than (upper tail) or less than (lower tail) the hypothesized value, µ

0

. Using

a z-test at the 5% level of signiﬁcance, the computed test statistic is compared with the

critical values of 1.645 for the upper tail tests (i.e., H

A

: µ > µ

0

) or –1.645 for lower tail tests

(i.e., H

A

: µ < µ

0

). These critical values are obtained from a z-table, where –z

0.05

= –1.645

corresponds to a cumulative probability equal to 5%, and the z

0.05

= 1.645 corresponds to a

cumulative probability of 95% (1 – 0.05).

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Topic 13

Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Stock & Watson, Chapter 3

Let’s use the upper tail test structure where H

0

: µ _ µ

0

and H

A

: µ > µ

0

.

If the calculated test statistic is greater than 1.645, we conclude that the sample statistic s

is sufﬁciently greater than the hypothesized value. In other words, we reject the null

hypothesis.

If the calculated test statistic is less than 1.645, we conclude that the sample statistic s

is not sufﬁciently different from the hypothesized value, and we fail to reject the null

hypothesis.

Figure 5 shows the standard normal distribution and the rejection region for a one-tailed

test (upper tail) at the 5% level of signiﬁcance.

One-Tailed Hypothesis Test Using the Standard Normal ( Figure 5: z) Distribution

Example: One-tailed test

Perform a z-test using the option portfolio data from the previous example to test the

belief that option returns are positive.

Answer:

In this case, we use a one-tailed test with the following structure:

H

0

: µ _ 0 versus H

A

: µ > 0

The appropriate decision rule for this one-tailed z-test at a signiﬁcance level of 5% is:

Reject H

0

if test statistic > 1.645

The same test statistic is used, regardless of whether we are using a one-tailed or two-tailed

test. From the previous example, we know that the test statistic for the option return

sample is 6.33. Since 6.33 > 1.645, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that mean

returns are statistically greater than zero at a 5% level of signiﬁcance.

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Topic 13

Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Stock & Watson, Chapter 3

The Choice of the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The most common null hypothesis will be an “equal to” hypothesis. Combined with a “not

equal to” alternative, this will require a two-tailed test. The alternative is often the hoped-for

hypothesis. When the null is that a coefﬁcient is equal to zero, we hope to reject it and show

the signiﬁcance of the relationship.

When the null is less than or equal to, the (mutually exclusive) alternative is framed as

greater than, and a one-tail test is appropriate. If we are trying to demonstrate that a return

is greater than the risk-free rate, this would be the correct formulation. We will have set up

the null and alternative hypothesis so that rejection of the null will lead to acceptance of the

alternative, our goal in performing the test.

Tests of Significance

Hypothesis testing involves two statistics: the test statistic calculated from the sample data

and the critical value of the test statistic. The value of the computed test statistic relative to

the critical value is a key step in assessing the validity of a hypothesis.

A test statistic is calculated by comparing the point estimate of the population parameter

with the hypothesized value of the parameter (i.e., the value speciﬁed in the null hypothesis).

With reference to our option return example, this means we are concerned with the difference

between the mean return of the sample (i.e., x = 0.001) and the hypothesized mean return (i.e.,

µ

0

= 0). As indicated in the following expression, the test statistic is the difference between the

sample statistic and the hypothesized value, scaled by the standard error of the sample statistic.

test statistic

sample statistic hypothesized value

standard

=

÷

error of the sample statistic

The standard error of the sample statistic is the adjusted standard deviation of the sample.

When the sample statistic is the sample mean, x, the standard error of the sample statistic

for sample size n, is calculated as:

o

o

x

n

=

when the population standard deviation, o, is known, or

s

s

n

x

=

when the population standard deviation, o, is not known. In this case, it is estimated using

the standard deviation of the sample, s.

Professor’s Note: Don’t be confused by the notation here. A lot of the literature

you will encounter in your studies simply uses the term o

x

for the standard error of

the test statistic, regardless of whether the population standard deviation or sample

standard deviation was used in its computation.

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Topic 39

Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Tuckman, Chapter 5

Key Concepts

1. The DV01, equivalently, the PVBP, is the absolute value of the price change of a bond

from a one basis point change in yield. The DV01 is an adequate measure of price

volatility or interest rate sensitivity since it corresponds to such a small change in yield.

2. The hedge ratio when hedging a bond with another bond is calculated as:

HR

DV01 (initial position)

DV01 (hedging instrument)

=

3. The formula for effective duration is:

duration

BV BV

2 BV y

+

0

=

^ ^

^

y y

4. Convexity is a measure of the degree of curvature or convexity in the price/yield

relationship:

convexity

BV BV BV

BV y

y y

=

÷ ÷

÷ ÷ ^ ^

^

2

0

0

2

5. Combining the standard convexity measure with a measure of duration provides more

accurate estimates of bond price changes, particularly when the change in yield is

relatively large.

percentage price change duration effect + convexity effe ~ cct

= ( )

l

l

÷ ( )

l

l

l

–duration y convexity y ^ ^ 100 100

1

2

2

6. The use of convexity allows asset-liability management managers to better match the

characteristics of their asset stream with that of their liabilities.

7. The portfolio duration of a bond portfolio is the value-weighted average of the

durations of the bonds in the portfolio.

8. When hedging a bond that exhibits positive (negative) convexity with a bond that

exhibits negative (positive) convexity, be cautious of interest rate movements. The

bond’s hedge may not be adequate after interest rates change.

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Topic 39

Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Tuckman, Chapter 5

Concept Checkers

Use the following information to answer Questions 1 and 2.

An investor has a short position valued at $100 in a 10-year, 5% coupon, T-bond with a

YTM of 7%. Assume discounting occurs on a semiannual basis.

1. Which of the following is closest to the dollar value of a basis point (DV01)?

A. 0.065.

B. 0.056.

C. 0.047.

D. 0.033.

2. Using a 20-year T-bond with a DV01 of 0.085 to hedge the interest rate risk in the

10-year bond mentioned above, which of the following actions should the investor

take?

A. Buy $130.75 of the hedging instrument.

B. Sell $130.75 of the hedging instrument.

C. Buy $76.50 of the hedging instrument.

D. Sell $76.50 of the hedging instrument.

3. The duration of a portfolio can be computed as the sum of the value-weighted

durations of the bonds in the portfolio. Which of the following is the most limiting

assumption of this methodology?

A. All the bonds in the portfolio must change by the same yield.

B. The yields on all the bonds in the portfolio must be perfectly correlated.

C. All the bonds in the portfolio must be in the same risk class or along the same

yield curve.

D. The portfolio must be equally weighted.

4. Estimate the percentage price change in bond price from a 25 basis point increase in

yield on a bond with a duration of 7 and a convexity of 243.

A. 1.67% decrease.

B. 1.67% increase.

C. 1.75% increase.

D. 1.75% decrease.

5. An investor is estimating the interest rate risk of a 14% semiannual pay coupon

bond with 6 years to maturity. The bond is currently trading at par. The effective

duration and effective convexity of the bond for a 25 basis point increase and

decrease in yield are closest to:

Duration Convexity

A. 3.970 23.20

B. 3.740 23.20

C. 3.970 20.80

D. 3.740 20.80

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Page 52 ©2012 Kaplan, Inc.

Topic 39

Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Tuckman, Chapter 5

Concept Checker Answers

1. A For a 7% bond, N = 10 × 2 = 20; I/Y = 7/2 = 3.5%; PMT = 5/2 = 2.5; FV = 100;

CPT ÷ PV = –85.788

For a 7.01% bond, N = 20; I/Y = 7.01/2 = 3.505%; PMT = 2.5; FV = 100;

CPT ÷ PV = –85.723

For a 6.99% bond, N = 20; I/Y = 6.99/2 = 3.495%; PMT = 2.5; FV = 100;

CPT ÷ PV = –85.852

DV01+Δy = | 85.788 – 85.723 | = 0.065

DV01-Δy = | 85.788 – 85.852 | = 0.064

2. C The hedge ratio is 0.065 / 0.085 = 0.765. Since the investor has a short position in the bond,

this means the investor needs to buy $0.765 of par value of the hedging instrument for every

$1 of par value for the 10-year bond.

3. B A signiﬁcant problem with using portfolio duration is that it assumes all yields for every

bond in the portfolio are perfectly correlated. However, it is unlikely that yields across

national borders are perfectly correlated.

4. A ^V

÷

~ ÷ [ [÷

( )

( )

l

l

l

=÷ % . . . % 7 0 0025 100

1

2

243 0 0025 100 1 67

2

5. C N = 12; PMT = 7; FV = 100; I/Y = 13.75/2 = 6.875%; CPT ÷ PV = 100.999

N = 12; PMT = 7; FV = 100; I/Y = 14.25/2 = 7.125%; CPT ÷ PV = 99.014

Δy = 0.0025

Duration =

100 999 99 014

2 100 0 0025

3 970

. .

( ) .

.

÷

=

Convexity =

100 999 99 014 200

100 0 0025

20 8

2

. .

( )( . )

.

÷ ÷

=

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©2012 Kaplan, Inc. Page 185

Challenge Problems

1. An investor enters a short position in a gold futures contract at $318.60. Each

futures contract controls 100 troy ounces. The initial margin is $5,000 and the

maintenance margin is $4,000. At the end of the ﬁrst day the futures price rises to

$329.22. Which of the following is the amount of the variation margin at the end of

the ﬁrst day?

A. $0.

B. $62.

C. $1,000.

D. $1,062.

2. A large-cap U.S. equity portfolio manager is concerned about near-term market

conditions and wishes to reduce the systematic risk of her portfolio from 1.2 to

0.90. Her portfolio value is $56 million, and the S&P 500 futures index is currently

trading at 1,050 and has a multiplier of 250. How can the portfolio manager’s

objective be achieved?

A. Sell 47 contracts.

B. Buy 47 contracts.

C. Sell 64 contracts.

D. Buy 64 contracts.

3. Suppose you observe a 1-year (zero-coupon) Treasury security trading at a yield to

maturity of 5% (price of 95.2381% of par). You also observe a 2-year T-note with a

6% coupon trading at a yield to maturity of 5.5% (price of 100.9232). And, ﬁnally,

you observe a 3-year T-note with a 7% coupon trading at a yield to maturity of

6.0% (price of 102.6730). Assume annual coupon payments. Use the bootstrapping

method to determine the 2-year and 3-year spot rates.

2-year spot rate 3-year spot rate

A. 5.51% 5.92%

B. 5.46% 5.92%

C. 5.51% 6.05%

D. 5.46% 6.05%

4. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin decided to stop issuing 30-year Treasury

bonds in 2001 and to replace them by borrowing more with shorter-maturity

Treasury bills and notes (although the U.S. Treasury has since resumed issuing

30-year bonds). Which of the following statements concerning this decision is most

accurate?

A. If the pure expectations hypothesis of the term structure is correct, this decision

will reduce the government’s borrowing cost.

B. If the liquidity theory of the term structure is correct, this decision will reduce

the government’s borrowing cost.

C. If the liquidity theory of the term structure is correct, this decision will not

change the government’s borrowing cost.

D. If the pure expectations hypothesis of the term structure is correct, this decision

will increase the government’s borrowing cost.

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Page 186 ©2012 Kaplan, Inc.

Book 3

Challenge Problems

5. A portfolio manager owns Macrogrow, Inc., which is currently trading at $35 per

share. She plans to sell the stock in 120 days but is concerned about a possible price

decline. She decides to take a short position in a 120-day forward contract on the

stock. The stock will pay a $0.50 per share dividend in 35 days and $0.50 again in

125 days. The risk-free rate is 4%. The value of the trader’s position in the forward

contract in 45 days, assuming in 45 days the stock price is $27.50 and the risk-free

rate has not changed, is closest to:

A. $7.17.

B. $7.50.

C. $7.92.

D. $7.00.

6. A 6-month futures contract on an equity index is currently priced at 1,276. The

underlying index stocks are valued at 1,250 and pay dividends at a continuously

compounded rate of 1.70%. The current continuously compounded risk-free rate is

5%. The potential arbitrage is closest to:

A. 5.20.

B. 8.32.

C. 16.58.

D. 26.00.

7. All things being equal, which of the following statements would increase the value of

a European put option on a nondividend paying stock?

I. A decrease in the risk-free rate over the life of the option.

II. An increase in the time to expiration of the option.

A. I only.

B. II only.

C. Both I and II.

D. Neither I nor II.

Use the following information to answer Questions 8 and 9.

Stock ABC trades for $60 and has 1-year call and put options written on it with an

exercise price of $60. The annual standard deviation estimate is 10%, and the

continuously compounded risk-free rate is 5%. The value of the call is $4.09.

Chefron, Inc. common stock trades for $60 and has a 1-year call option written on it with

an exercise price of $60. The annual standard deviation estimate is 10%, the continuous

dividend yield is 1.4%, and the continuously compounded risk-free rate is 5%.

8. The value of the put on ABC stock is closest to:

A. $1.16.

B. $3.28.

C. $4.09.

D. $1.00.

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GARP FRM Practice Exam Questions

Financial Markets and Products

Professor’s Note: The following questions are from the 2008–2011 GARP FRM

Practice Exams.

Alan bought a futures contract on a commodity on the New York Commodity 1.

Exchange on June 1. The futures price was USD 500 per unit and the contract size

was 100 units per contract. Alan set up a margin account with initial margin of

USD 2,000 per contract and maintenance margin of USD 1,000 per contract. The

futures price of the commodity varied as shown below. What was the balance in

Alan’s margin account at the end of day on June 5?

Day Futures Price (USD)

June 1 497.30

June 2 492.70

June 3 484.20

June 4 471.70

June 5 468.80

A. –USD 1,120

B. USD 0

C. USD 880

D. USD 1,710

In late June, Simon purchased two September silver futures contracts. Each contract 2.

size is 5,000 ounces of silver and the futures price on the date of purchase was

USD 18.62 per ounce. The broker requires an initial margin of USD 6,000 and a

maintenance margin of USD 4,500. You are given the following price history for the

September silver futures:

Day Futures Price (USD) Daily Gain (loss)

June 29 18.62 0

June 30 18.69 700

July 1 18.03 –6,600

July 2 17.72 –3,100

July 6 18.00 2,800

July 7 17.70 –3,000

July 8 17.60 –1,000

On which days did Simon receive a margin call?

A. July 1 only

B. July 1 and July 2 only

C. July 1, July 2 and July 7 only

D. July 1, July 2 and July 8 only

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Book 3

GARP FRM Practice Exam Questions

Which of the following statements about basis risk is incorrect? 3.

A. An airline company hedging exposure to a rise in jet fuel prices with heating oil

futures contracts may face basis risk.

B. Choices left to the seller about the physical settlement of the futures contract

in terms of grade of the commodity, location, chemical attributes may result in

basis risk.

C. Basis risk exists when futures and spot prices change by the same amount over

time and converge at maturity of the futures contract.

D. Basis risk is zero when variances of both the futures and spot process are

identical and the correlation coefﬁcient between spot and futures prices is equal

to one.

On Nov 1, Jimmy Walton, a fund manager of an USD 60 million US medium- 4.

to-large cap equity portfolio, considers locking up the proﬁt from the recent rally.

The S&P 500 index and its futures with the multiplier of 250 are trading at USD

900 and USD 910, respectively. Instead of selling off his holdings, he would rather

hedge two-thirds of his market exposure over the remaining 2 months. Given that

the correlation between Jimmy’s portfolio and the S&P 500 index futures is 0.89

and the volatilities of the equity fund and the futures are 0.51 and 0.48 per year

respectively, what position should he take to achieve his objective?

A. Sell 250 futures contracts of S&P 500

B. Sell 169 futures contracts of S&P 500

C. Sell 167 futures contracts of S&P 500

D. Sell 148 futures contracts of S&P 500

Which of the following is not a source of basis risk when using futures contracts for 5.

hedging?

A. Differences between the asset whose price is being hedged and the asset

underlying the futures contract.

B. Uncertainty about the exact date when the asset being hedged will be bought or

sold.

C. The inability of managers to forecast the price of the underlying.

D. The need to close the futures contract before its delivery date.

On Nov 1, Dane Hudson, a fund manager of an USD 50 million US large cap 6.

equity portfolio, considers locking up the proﬁt from the recent rally. The S&P 500

index and its futures with the multiplier of 250 are trading at USD 1,000 and USD

1,100, respectively. Instead of selling off h1s holdings he would rather hedge his

market exposure over the remaining 2 months. Given that the correlation between

Dane’s portfolio and the S&P 500 index futures is 0.92 and the volatilities of the

equity fund and the futures are 0.55 and 0.45 per year respectively, what position

should he take to achieve his objective?

A. Sell 40 futures contracts of S&P 500

B. Sell 135 futures contracts of S&P 500

C. Sell 205 futures contracts of S&P 500

D. Sell 355 futures contracts of S&P 500

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Page 218 ©2012 Kaplan, Inc.

Book 3 Formulas

Financial Markets and Products

call option payoff: C

T

= max (0, S

T

– X)

put option payoff: P

T

= max (0, X – S

T

)

forward contract payoff: payoff = S

T

– K

where:

S

T

= spot price at maturity

K = delivery price

basis = spot price of asset being hedged – futures price of contract used in hedge

hedge ratio: HR = ¸

o

o

S,F

S

F

beta:

Cov

S,F

o

o

F

S F

2

=

,

correlation: ¸

o o

=

Cov

S,F

S F

hedging with stock index futures:

number of contracts

portfolio value

value of fu

portfolio

= o

ttures contract

portfolio value

futu

portfolio

í

(

·

·

·

\

)

= o

rres price contract multiplier

í

(

·

·

·

·

\

)

**adjusting the portfolio beta: number of contracts
**

P

* = ÷ ( ) o o

A

discrete compounding: FV A 1

R

m

m n

= ÷

í

(

·

·

·

\

)

continuous compounding:

FV Ae

R n

=

forward rate agreement: cash flow(if receiving R ) L R R T T

cash flow(if

K K 2 1

= ( )( ) – –

ppaying R ) L R R T T

K K 2 1

= ( )( ) – –

forward price: F S e

0 0

rT

=

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