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Malawi

TRAVEL & TOURISM


SOWING THE SEEDS OF GROWTH
The 2005 Travel & Tourism Economic Research

170.16

CHAIRMAN:
Vincent A. Wolfington
Chairman
Carey International, Inc

P R S Oberoi
Chairman
The Oberoi Group

Laurence Geller
Chairman & CEO
Strategic Hotel Capital

Dionsio Pestana
Chairman
Group Pestana

Daniela Wagner
Managing Director, International
octopustravel.com

Alan Parker
Chief Executive
Whitbread PLC

Naresh Goyal
Chairman
Jet Airways

Fernando Pinto
CEO
TAP Air Portugal

Philip Wolf
CEO
PhoCusWright, Inc.

Lalit Suri
Chairman & Managing Director
Bharat Hotels Ltd

Maurice H Greenberg
Chairman & CEO
American International Group, Inc

Wolfgang Prock-Schauer
Chief Executive Officer
Jet Airways

Peter Yesawich
Chairman & CEO
Yesawich, Pepperdine,
Brown & Russell

Jonathan Tisch
Chairman & CEO
Loews Hotels

Stelios Haji-Ioannou
Chairman & Founder
easyGroup (UK) Ltd.

David Radcliffe
Chief Executive
Hogg Robinson plc

Murray Hennessy
CEO
Avis Europe Plc

Kurt Ritter
President & CEO
Rezidor SAS Hospitality

Andr Jordan

GLOBAL MEMBERS:

Brent Hoberman
Co-Founder & CEO
lastminute.com

Christopher Rodrigues
CEO
Visa International

Sir Frank Moore, AO


Chairman
Taylor Byrne Tourism Group

James Hogan
President & Chief Executive
Gulf Air

Peter Rogers
President & CEO
Diners Club International

Frank Olson
Chairman of the Board
The Hertz Corporation

Raimund Hosch
President & CEO
Messe Berlin GmbH

Carl Ruderman
Chairman
Universal Media

Grard Plisson
Co-Chairman, Supervisory Board
Accor SA

Nuno Trigoso Jordo


President & CEO
Sonae Turismo Gestao e Servicos

Mary Salfen
General Manager, Global Travel
& Transportation Industry
IBM

Henry Silverman
Chairman
Cendant Corporation

VICE CHAIRMEN:
Jean-Marc Espalioux
Chairman of Management Board
& CEO
Accor
Jonathan S Linen
Vice Chairman
American Express Company
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE:
Akbar Al Baker
CEO
Qatar Airways
Peter Armstrong
President & CEO
Rocky Mountaineer Railtours
David Babai
Chairman
Gullivers Travel Associates
Sebastin Escarrer
Vice Chairman
Sol Meli
Manuel Fernando Esprito Santo
Chairman
Esprito Santo Tourism
Edouard Ettedgui
Group Chief Executive
Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group
Maurice Flanagan CBE
Vice Chairman & Group
President
The Emirates Group
Michael Frenzel
Chairman
TUI AG
Stephen P. Holmes
Vice Chairman
Cendant Corporation
David House
Group President
American Express Company

Giovanni Angelini
CEO & Managing Director
Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts
Ted Balestreri
Chairman & CEO
Cannery Row Company
Simn Barcel Vadell
Chairman & CEO
Barcel Hotels and Resorts
Henrik Bartl
Managing Director & Head of
Real Estate Structured Finance
Aareal Bank AG
Jrgen Baumhoff
CEO
Qatar National Hotels Company
Raymond Bickson
Managing Director
The Taj Group of Hotels
Regis Bulot
Chairman of the Board
Relais & Chateaux
Marilyn Carlson Nelson
Chairman & CEO
Carlson Companies
U Gary Charlwood
Founder, Chairman & CEO
Uniglobe Travel (International) Inc
Alex Christou
Partner, Travel Services
Accenture

Samuel Katz
Chairman & CEO
Travel Distribution Services
Division
Cendant Corporation
Nigel Knowles
Managing Partner
DLA

Eric J Speck
Executive Vice President
& Chief Marketing Officer
Sabre Holdings Corporation

Gerald Lawless
Chief Executive
Jumeirah International

Jean-Cyril Spinetta
Chairman & CEO
Air France

Dave Lucas
President & CEO
Blue Wave Solutions

David Stein
Chairman
The Stein Group

Lusotur S. A.

Barry Sternlicht
Chairman & CEO
Starwood Hotels & Resorts

InterContinental Hotels Group

Manuel Martin
Partner
CyberDodo Productions Ltd

Richard R Kelley
Chairman
Outrigger Enterprises, Inc

David Clifton
Managing Director, Europe & Asia
Interval International

Wolfgang Mayrhuber
CEO
Lufthansa German Airlines

Geoffrey J W Kent
Chairman & CEO
Abercrombie & Kent

Jim Compton
Senior VP, Marketing
Continental Airlines

Paul McManus
President & CEO
The Leading Hotels of the World

J W Marriott, Jr
Chairman & CEO
Marriott International, Inc

Fernando Conte
Chairman & CEO
Iberia, Airlines of Spain

Armin Meier
President & CEO
Kuoni Travel Holding Ltd

David Michels
Chief Executive
Hilton Group plc
Hilton International

Glen Davidson
Senior VP, Worldwide Travel
Insurance & Related Services
American International Group, Inc

Alan Mulally
Executive Vice President
The Boeing Company

Curtis Nelson
President & COO
Carlson Companies
Mike Ness
President
The Travel Corporation

Alain Demissy
President of the Executive
Committee
Mondial Assistance Group
Rod Eddington
Chief Executive
British Airways plc
Rakesh Gangwal
Chairman, President & CEO
Worldspan

Per Setterberg
CEO
Global Refund Group

Krishna Kumar
Vice Chairman
The Taj Group of Hotels

Jennie Chua
Chairman & CEO
Raffles International Ltd

David Mongeau
Vice Chairman
CIBC World Markets

Bruno Schpfer
Chairman of the Board
Mvenpick Hotels & Resorts

Ron Stringfellow
CEO
Tsogo Sun Group
Ian Swain
President
Swain Tours
Andrew C Taylor
President & CEO
Enterprise Rent-a-Car

HONORARY MEMBERS:

Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge

Tommaso Zanzotto
President
TZ Associates Ltd
CHAIRMAN EMERITUS:
James D Robinson III
General Partner
RRE Ventures
WTTC Chairman (1990-1994)
IMMEDIATE PAST
CHAIRMAN:
Sir Ian Prosser
Retired Chairman
InterContinental Hotels Group
WTTC Chairman (2001-2003)
FORMER CHAIRMEN
Harvey Golub
Retired Chairman & CEO
American Express Co
WTTC Chairman (1996 2001)
Robert H. Burns
Chairman
Robert H Burns Holdings Limited
WTTC Chairman (1994 1996)
PRESIDENT:
Jean-Claude Baumgarten

Kathleen Taylor
President, Worldwide Business
Operations
Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts

John M Noel
President & CEO
The Noel Group

Jos Antonio Tazn


President & CEO
Amadeus Global Travel
Distribution

Tom Nutley
Chairman
Reed Travel Exhibitions

Jeffrey Toffler
Chairman
Coventry Partners

Jean Gabriel Prs


President & CEO
Mvenpick Hotels & Resorts

Simon Vincent
CEO
Opodo

14 February 2004

Malawi
The 2005 Travel & Tourism Economic Research
Travel & Tourism is one of the world's highest priority industries and employers. This
Tourism Satellite Accounting Research quantifies the wide-ranging economic impact and
provides solid, credible and professional statistical information that can assist in informing
government policy and business decision processes.
Malawi Travel & Tourism is expected to generate
MWK26,050.4 mn (US$231.7 mn) of economic activity
(Total Demand) in 2005, growing (nominal terms) to
MWK77,686.5 mn (US$542.6 mn) by 2015. Travel &
Tourism Demand is expected to grow by 9.4% in 2005 and
by 4.6% per annum, in real terms, between 2006 and 2015.
2005 Total Demand represents 0.0% of world market share.
EMPLOYMENT

2005
Growth
Forecast*

GROSS
DOMESTIC
PRODUCT

VISITOR
EXPORTS

2005 World Market Share

World Ranking
The Malawi Travel & Tourism
economy is ranked number:
154 in Absolute Size
worldwide, 135 in Relative
Contribution to national
economies; and 99 in Longterm (10-year) Growth. (174
countries are estimated by
WTTC/OEF)
Malawi

Rest of World

PERSONAL
TRAVEL &
TOURISM

CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

9.6%

12.1%

13.9%

7.5%

4.1%

Malawi T&T Economy


employment is estimated at
132,861 jobs in 2005, 5.7%
of total employment, or 1
in every 17.6 jobs. By
2015, this should total
161,699 jobs, 5.9% of total
employment or 1 in every
17.1 jobs. The 67,232 T&T
Industry jobs account for
2.9% of total employment
in 2005 and are forecast to
total 80,771 jobs or 2.9% of
the total by 2015.

Malawi's T&T Industry is


expected to contribute
3.7% to Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in 2005
(MWK7,952.0 mn or
US$70.7 mn), rising in
nominal terms to
MWK22,708.9 mn or
US$158.6 mn (3.8% of
total) by 2015. The T&T
Economy contribution
(percent of total) should
rise from 7.3%
(MWK15,507.1 mn or
US$137.9 mn) to 7.5%
(MWK44,826.7 mn or
US$313.1 mn) in this same
period.

Malawi Travel & Tourism is


expected to generate 12.5%
of total exports
(MWK10,257.7 mn or
US$91.2 mn) in 2005,
growing (nominal terms) to
MWK30,469.7 mn or
US$212.8 mn (11.5% of
total) in 2015.

Malawi Personal Travel &


Tourism is estimated at
MWK6,756.6 mn, US$60.1
mn or 3.8% of total
personal consumption in
year 2005. By 2015, this
should reach
MWK22,282.3 mn,
US$155.6 mn or 4.7% of
total consumption. Malawi
Business Travel is estimated
at MWK7,314.5 mn,
US$65.1 mn in year 2005.
By 2015, this should reach
MWK19,948.6 mn or
US$139.3 mn.

Malawi Travel & Tourism


Capital Investment is
estimated at MWK1,159.3
mn, US$10.3 mn or 5.5% of
total investment in year
2005. By 2015, this should
reach MWK3,317.8 mn,
US$23.2 mn or 5.6% of
total.

2005 % of Total Employment

2005 % of Total GDP

2005 % of Total Exports

2005 % of Total Personal


Consumption

2005 % of Total Capital


Investment

5.7%

7.3%

12.5%

3.8%

5.5%

THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC) IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM, WORKING WITH
GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WORLDS LARGEST GENERATOR OF WEALTH AND JOBS.
2005 WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL
1-2 QUEEN VICTORIA TERRACE, SOVEREIGN COURT, LONDON E1W 3HA, UNITED KINGDOM
TEL: +44 (0) 870 727 9882 or + 44 (0) 207 481 8007 FAX: +44 (0) 870 728 9882 or + 44 (0) 207 488 1008 enquiries@wttc.org www.wttc.org
Use of Information and Data from this Report is Authorized Provide Souce is Acknowledged.

THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC) IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS
FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM, WORKING WITH GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE
AWARENESS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WORLDS LARGEST GENERATOR OF
WEALTH AND JOBS.
With the Chief Executives of more than one hundred of the worlds leading companies in
membership, WTTC has a unique mandate and overview on all matters related to success in Travel &
Tourism.
This 2005 report for Malawi is the fifth set of
Tourism Satellite Accounting research that Oxford
Economic Forecasting (OEF) has prepared for
WTTC.
The first, commissioned in 2001, re-engineered the
models previously developed during the 1990s. The
second, prepared in 2002, served an important role in
helping to quantify the tragic events of September 11,
2001 on Travel & Tourism. The third in 2003,
significantly upgraded and enhanced the quality,
sophistication and precision of the TSA research and
presented a second (worse case) scenario for the Iraq
War. The fourth in 2004, increased the world
coverage by adding 13 countries not previously
included in the TSA research, and presented even
greater analysis of the results in this report.

This 2005 research is serving to help us build a crisis


forecasting model that will assist the industry,
governments and the media understand the possible
impact of natural disasters like the Indian Ocean
Tsunami, health related events like SARS in 2004,
war and conflict events like the 1990 Gulf War or
terrorism events like 9/11. The more we understand
about the breadth, longevity and severity of these
various events, the better we predict the potential
impact and prepare for recovery.
As always, this 2005 research updates the historical
results based on the most current data sources,
estimates the current performance of Malawi's Travel
& Tourism, and provides short- and long-term
forecasts based on the most recent national and
international data sources and econometric models
developed by Oxford Econometric Forecasting.

Jean-Claude Baumgarten
President, World Travel & Tourism Council

Based on the UN standard for Satellite Accounting,


this new TSA research quantifies all aspects of Travel
& Tourism demand, from personal consumption to
business purchases, capital investment, government
spending and exports. It then translates this
information into economic concepts of production,
such as gross domestic product and employment,
which can be compared with other industries and the
economy as a whole to provide credible statistical
information that will assist in policy and business
decision processes.
The message from this year's reserch is generally
positive on a global basis for a healthy return to
growth. On a more specific basis in 2005, Malawi's
Travel & Tourism Industry is expected to generate
3.7% of GDP and 67,232 jobs, while the broader
Travel & Tourism Economy is expected to total 7.3%
of GDP and 132,861 jobs.
Looking ahead, the forecast for Travel & Tourism
Demand is expected to total 9.4% real growth in
2005, and 4.6% real growth per annum between 2006
and 2015.
This WTTC research quantifies and documents the
Travel & Tourism economics for Malawi, the first
step towards addressing mission-critical issues such as
tourism management, tourism marketing and
promotion, tourism infrastructure, taxation, aviation
policy and much more.
We hope that by raising awareness of previous
performance, current conditions and the, as yet
unrealized, potential of Travel & Tourism in Malawi,
this report will act as a catalyst, encouraging industry
and government to continue to work together to
create the conditions necessary to realize the
industrys true promise.

Vincent A. Wolfington
Chairman, World Travel & Tourism Council
Chairman Emeritus, Carey International, Inc.

CONTENTS
TRAVEL & TOURISM SOWING THE SEEDS OF GROWTH

WTTC MEMBERSHIP
ONE PAGE SUPER SUMMARY NEW
PRESIDENT AND CHAIRMANS MESSAGE
ECONOMIC IMPACT...............................................................................................................................................................6
GROWTH .................................................................................................................................................................................................7
TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT
TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTING ..........................................................................................................................................................8
WTTCS APPROACH TO TSA RESEARCH ...................................................................................................................................................9
TSA CONCEPTS & STRUCTURE IMPROVED ................................................................................................................................ 10-11
T&T DEMAND AND SUPPLY IMPROVED ...............................................................................................................................................12
TRAVEL & TOURISMS ECONOMIC IMPACT IMPROVED ...............................................................................................................14
NATIONAL, REGIONAL, AND WORLD SUMMARY TABLES ...............................................................................................................15
TOTAL DEMAND......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16-17
EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 18-19
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT................................................................................................................................................................ 20-21
CAPITAL INVESTMENT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 22-23
PERSONAL & BUSINESS ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24-25
EXPORTS ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26-27
GOVERNMENT NEW ............................................................................................................................................................................. 28-29
RANKING AND RANGE ..................................................................................................................................................................................30
CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH ...............................................................................................................................................................31
SATELLITE ACCOUNT TABLES............................................................................................................................................................... 32-33
2005/2004 VARIANCE CHARTS ............................................................................................................................................................... 34-35
WORLD AT A GLANCE IMPROVED ................................................................................................................................................... 36-38

OXFORD ECONOMIC FORECASTING......................................................................................................40


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................................................41
Use of Material is Authorized, Provided Source is Acknowledged
1-2 Queen Victoria Terrace, Sovereign Court, London E1W 3HA, United Kingdom,
Tel +44-870-727-9882 or +44-207-481-8007, Fax +44-870-728-9882 or +44-207-488-1008, enquires @wttc.org www.wttc.org

ECONOMIC IMPACT
IN 2005, MALAWI'S TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE MWK26,050.4
MN (US$231.7 MN) OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (TOTAL DEMAND). THE INDUSTRY'S
DIRECT IMPACT INCLUDES:

67,232

MWK

jobs representing 2.9% of total


Employment.

7,952.0

mn

(US$70.7 mn) of Gross Domestic


Product (GDP) equivalent to 3.7% of
total GDP.

HOWEVER, SINCE TRAVEL & TOURISM TOUCHES ALL SECTORS OF THE


ECONOMY, ITS REAL IMPACT IS EVEN GREATER. MALAWI'S TRAVEL &TOURISM
ECONOMY DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY ACCOUNTS FOR:

132,861

MWK

jobs representing 5.7% of total


Employment.

MWK

10,257.7

mn

(US$91.2 mn) of Exports, Services &


Merchandise or 12.5% of total Exports.

15,507.1

mn

(US$137.9 mn) of Gross Domestic


Product (GDP) equivalent to 7.3% of
total GDP.

MWK

1,159.3

mn

(US$10.3 mn) of Capital Investment or


5.5% of total investment.

MWK

562.4

mn

(US$5.0 mn) of Government


Expenditures or a 1.3% share.

GROWTH
IN 2005 TRAVEL & TOURISM IN MALAWI IS FORECAST TO SEE REAL GROWTH (REAL
DECLINE) OF 9.4% IN TOTAL TRAVEL & TOURISM DEMAND TO MWK26,050.4 MN
(US$231.7 MN) AND

13.0%

10.5%

in TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY


GDP to MWK7,952.0 mn (US$70.7
mn) for the industry directly and 12.1%
to MWK15,507.1 mn (US$137.9 mn)
for the Travel & Tourism Economy
overall (direct and indirect
expenditures).

in TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY


EMPLOYMENT (direct impact only),
to 67,232 jobs, and 9.6% to 132,861
jobs in the Travel & Tourism Economy
overall (direct and indirect).

OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS, MALAWI'S TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO
ACHIEVE ANNUALIZED REAL GROWTH (REAL DECLINE) OF:

4.6%

4.2%

in total TRAVEL & TOURISM


DEMAND to MWK77,686.5 mn
(US$542.6 mn) in 2015.

in total TRAVEL & TOURISM GDP, to


MWK22,708.9 mn (US$158.6 mn) in
2015 for the industry directly and to
MWK44,826.7 mn (US$313.1 mn) for
the Travel & Tourism Economy
overall.

1.9%

4.4%

in TRAVEL & TOURISM


EMPLOYMENT, to 80,771 jobs
directly in the industry, and 2.0% to
161,699 jobs in the Travel & Tourism
Economy overall in 2015.

in VISITOR EXPORTS, rising to


MWK23,101.5 mn (US$161.4 mn) by
2015.

4.2%

4.6%

in terms of CAPITAL INVESTMENT,


increasing to MWK3,317.8 mn
(US$23.2 mn) in 2015.

in terms of GOVERNMENT
EXPENDITURES to MWK1,668.0 mn
(US$11.7 mn) in 2015.

TRAVEL & TOURISM


SATELLITE ACCOUNT
TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTING

THIS REPORT FOLLOWS THE CONCEPT OF SATELLITE ACCOUNTING


DEFINED IN THE TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT: RECOMMENDED
METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK (TSA:RMF), AND DEVELOPED UNDER THE
AUSPICES OF THE WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION.
Over the last three decades, countries have estimated the economic impact of Travel &
Tourism through a range of measures using a variety of definitions and methodologies. Such
approaches have prevented meaningful comparisons among nations. Even for the same nation
over different periods of time, they have frustrated business and government attempts to draw
valid conclusions about the nature and course of Travel & Tourism demand in national
economies. This regime has obscured the substantial, positive role the industry plays in
national economies and has thwarted business and government attempts to optimize economic
programmes and policies.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) recognized the dearth of crucial Travel
& Tourism intelligence from the time of its establishment in 1990 and it published the first
detailed estimates of world tourism's economic impact that same year.
Since then WTTC has worked to improve its methodologies and to encourage individual
countries to enhance their measurement and understanding of tourisms impact on their
national economies. Furthermore, in the spirit of joining forces to enhance world
comprehension of the role of Travel & Tourism in national economies, WTTC has strongly
supported the programmes of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) to improve tourism
statistics worldwide.

WTTCS RESEARCH
WTTC and its economic consultants/research partners Oxford Economic Forecasting,
(OEF), since 1999, and Global Insight (previously known as DRIWEFA), from 1990-1999
have developed and published research on the economic contribution of Travel & Tourism to
the world, regional and national economies.
Starting in 1990,WTTCs research team has been working to develop practical, real-world
models to illustrate Travel & Tourisms economic contribution based on the needs of private
sector leaders, public sector policy-makers and industry researchers, and on the interpretation
of the system of national accounts. The research is now firmly anchored in the international
standard for tourism satellite accounting that was developed by WTO, OECD and Eurostat,
and approved by the United Nations Statistical Commission in 2000. It was launched at the
TSA Conference held in Vancouver in May 2001 and published as The Tourism Satellite
Account: Recommended Methodological Framework (TSA:RMF) in 2001.
Since 1999, WTTC's research has assumed the conceptual framework of the UNapproved standard with a number of discretionary extensions, and it combines the most
sophisticated economic modelling and forecasts available with the most up-to-date, publicly
available data to generate a comprehensive implementation of Travel & Tourism satellite
accounting.
The 2005 update of the WTTC TSA research is the fifth annual update undertaken for
WTTC by OEF. In carrying out the work, OEF has drawn extensively on the methodology
developed over the years by WTTC to develop TSAs as operational tools. OEF has also taken
the opportunity in a number of areas to review and enhance the modelling techniques,
assumptions used and data sources applied, and this research for 2005 is no exception.

WTTCS APPROACH TO
TSA RESEARCH
WTTC HAS ENDEAVOURED TO IMPLEMENT AND PRODUCE THE MOST
COMPREHENSIVE TSA PROVIDED FOR WITHIN THE TSA:RMF, BY
DEVELOPING THE SPECIFIC CONCEPT OF THE TRAVEL & TOURISM
INDUSTRY IN ADDITION TO THE BROADER CONCEPT OF THE TRAVEL &
TOURISM ECONOMY.
WTTC advocates full implementation of the TSA as defined in the TSA:RMF in order to
achieve the highest level of benefits for industry and governments. These include:
A wealth of customer and consumer information on tourism-related purchases (before,
during and after trips whether domestic or international, imported or exported as well
as services, durables and non-durables) that has never been identified until now;
Comprehensive documentation and analysis of the full tourism-product service chain and
governments ability to deliver quality and timely service to visitors;
Linkages between Travel & Tourism and other sectors of the economy such as agriculture
and manufacturing to illustrate the flow-through of spending;
Complete outlook for public works that benefit visitors and Travel & Tourism companies
in order to leverage public sector plans and priorities for growth;
Focused opportunities for domestic production, as well as incentives from the public
sector, to aid in the growth of businesses that help alleviate trade balance issues;
Demand- and supply-side information on employment that allows for human resource
planning and development.
WTTC has worked towards developing a comprehensive TSA not because it is eager to
exaggerate the size of Travel & Tourisms impact, but because the information that can be
garnered from the exercise by governments and industry is crucial for making intelligent and
informed policy and business decisions. WTTC believes that history will document its
pioneering implementation of the simulated TSA as one of the most important turning points
for Travel & Tourisms long overdue economic recognition.
In the WTTC research, no country receives special treatment or favours. WTTC uses
internationally available data sources and the same scope of tourism satellite accounting for all
countries, as well as the same basic assumptions through the same system of models. WTTCs
TSA research utilizes a universal and internally consistent modelling framework and generates
harmonized results and forecasts for more than 174 countries around the world. Details of the
methodology used by WTTC/OEF in its TSA research are available on WTTC's website
(www.wttc.org).

TSA CONCEPTS
& STRUCTURE
Demand Side Accounts
MWK mn
Personal Travel & Tourism
6,756.6
More formally known as Travel & Tourism Personal Consumption, this category includes all
personal spending by an economy's residents on Travel & Tourism services (lodging,
transportation, entertainment, meals, financial services, etc) and goods (durable and nondurable)
used for Travel & Tourism activities. Spending may occur before, during or after a trip. Spending
covers all Travel & Tourism, outbound and domestic.
Business Travel
7,314.5
Formally know as Intermediate Consumption of Travel & Tourism or more simply business
travel, this category of expenditures by government and industry includes spending on goods and
services (transportation, accommodation, meals, entertainment, etc) for employee business travel
purposes.
Government Expenditures (Individual)
168.7
Formally known as Non-Market Services (Individual), this category includes expenditures
(transfers or subsidies) made by government agencies to provide Travel & Tourism services such
as cultural (eg. art museums), recreational (eg national park) or clearance (eg immigration/
customs) etc to visitors.
Visitor Exports
7,893.8
Expenditures by international visitors on goods and services within the resident economy.

Travel & Tourism Consumption


22,133.6
Total Travel & Tourism expenditures made by and on behalf of visitors (goods and services) in the resident
economy.

Government Expenditures (Collective)


393.7
Formally known as Non-Market Services (Collective), this category includes operating
expenditures made by government agencies on services associated with Travel & Tourism, but
not directly linked to any individual visitor, instead these expenditures are generally made on
behalf of the 'community at large', such as tourism promotion, aviation administration, security
services and resort area sanitation services, etc.
Capital Investment
1,159.3
Formally known as Capital Formation, this category includes capital expenditures by direct Travel
& Tourism industry service providers and government agencies to provide facilities, equipment
and infrastructure to visitors.
Exports (Non-Visitor)
2,363.9
Consumer goods (such as clothing, electronics or petrol) exported for ultimate sale to visitors,
or Capital goods (such as aircraft or cruise ships) exported for use by Travel & Tourism industry
providers.
Travel & Tourism Demand
The nominal aggregate of tourism activity in the resident economy.

26,050.4

The Travel & Tourism Satellite Account is based on a demand-side concept of economic activity, because the industry does not
produce or supply a homogeneous product or service like traditional industries (agriculture, electronics, steel, etc). Instead, Travel &
Tourism is an industrial activity defined by the diverse collection of products (durables and non-durables) and services
(transportation, accommodation, food and beverage, entertainment, government services, etc) that are delivered to visitors. There
are two basic aggregates of demand (Travel & Tourism Consumption and Total Demand) and by employing input/output modelling
separately (yellow arrows) to these two aggregates the Satellite Account is able to produce two different and complementary
aggregates of Travel & Tourism Supply: the Travel & Tourism Industry and the Travel & Tourism Economy. The former captures the
explicitly defined production-side industry contribution (ie direct impact only), for comparison with all other industries, while the
latter captures the broader economy-wide impact, direct and indirect, of Travel & Tourism.

Supply Side Accounts


MWK mn
000s of Jobs

Travel & Tourism Industry GDP (Direct)


67.2
7,952.0
Direct Gross Domestic Product (also know as Value-Added) and Employment associated with Travel & Tourism
Consumption. This is the explicitly defined Supply-side industry contribution of Travel & Tourism that can be
compared one-for-one with the GDP and Employment contribution of other industries in the economy.
Establishments in this category include traditional Travel & Tourism providers such as airlines, hotels, car rental
companies, etc.
Travel & Tourism Industry GDP (Indirect)
4,758.9
Indirect Gross Domestic Product associated with Travel & Tourism Consumption. This is the upstream resident
economy contribution which comes about from suppliers to the traditional Travel & Tourism industry.
Establishments in this category include fuel and catering companies, laundry services, accounting firms, etc.

Travel & Tourism Industry Imports


The value of goods imported by direct and indirect Travel & Tourism Industry establishments.

9,422.7

Travel & Tourism Industry Supply


Total Travel & Tourism Industry supply.

22,133.6

000s of Jobs

Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (Direct and Indirect)


132.9
15,507.1
Direct and Indirect Gross Domestic Product (also know as Value-Added) and Employment associated with Travel
& Tourism Demand. This is the broadest measure of Travel & Tourism's contribution to the resident economy.
Establishments in this category include those described above as well as manufacturing, construction,
government, etc that are associated with Capital Investment, Government Services and Non-Visitor Exports.

Travel & Tourism Economy Imports


The value of goods imported by direct and indirect Travel & Tourism Economy establishments.

Travel & Tourism Economy Supply


Total Travel & Tourism Economy supply.

10,543.3

26,050.4

T&T DEMAND AND SUPPLY


TRAVEL & TOURISM
DEMAND

TRAVEL & TOURISM


SUPPLY
The Tourism Satellite Account quantifies
both sides of Travel & Tourism economic
activity, demand and supply. The pie on
the left shows how Travel & Tourism
Demand is 'consumed', while the pie on the
right shows how Travel & Tourism Supply
is 'produced'. No matter what the nature
of an economy's Travel & Tourism activity,
T&T Demand always equals T&T Supply.

Personal T&T
Gov't Expenditures (Indiv)
Gov't Expenditures (Coll)
Other Exports

Business T&T
Visitor Exports
Capital Investment

T&T Industry GDP (Direct)

T&T Industry GDP (Indirect)

T&T Industry Imports

T&T Supplier GDP (Direct)

T&T Supplier GDP (Indirect)

T&T Supplier Imports

US$ mn
Personal T&T

60.1

Business T&T
Gov't Expenditures
(Indiv)

65.1

Visitor Exports
Gov't Expenditures
(Coll)
Capital Investment
Other Exports
T&T Demand

70.2

US$ mn
T&T Industry GDP
(Direct)
T&T Industry GDP
(Indirect)

42.3

T&T Industry Imports


T&T Supplier GDP
(Direct)
T&T Supplier GDP
(Indirect)
T&T Supplier Imports

1.5

3.5
10.3
21.0
231.7

70.7

< Totel Demand = Total Supply >

TRAVEL & TOURISM


CONSUMPTION

83.8
15.6
9.3
10.0
231.7

T&T Supply

TRAVEL & TOURISM


INDUSTRY
Travel & Tourism Consumption (on the left in dark
blue) is the portion of Travel & Tourism Demand
normally identified as 'Visitor Spending.' This
spending includes Personal T&T (domestic and
outbound travel by residents), Business T&T
(domestic and outbound travel by resident business
and government agencies), Gov't Expenditures
Individual (visitor subsidies by government), and
Visitor Exports (inbound spending by international
visitors).

See labels above (top left)


US$ mn
Personal T&T

60.1

Business T&T
Gov't Expenditures
(Indiv)
Visitor Exports
T&T Consumption

65.1
1.5
70.2
196.9

On the supply side, this activity is identified (on the


right in dark blue) by the production or value added
(also know as Gross Domestic Product) of traditional
travel service providers (T&T Industry GDP Direct)
plus the value added of travel industry suppliers
(T&T Industry GDP Indirect) plus the value of T&T
industry imports from other countries.
When the TSA talks about the GDP of the Travel &
Tourism Industry, it is always referring to the first
slice of the pie on the right (T&T Industry GDP
Direct). This is the portion of T&T Supply that can
be compared with other industries to assess its actual
contribution.

T&T INDUSTRY GDP


(DIRECT IMPACT ONLY)

See labels above (top right)


US$ mn
T&T Industry GDP
(Direct)
T&T Industry GDP
(Indirect)

70.7
42.3

T&T Industry Imports

83.8

T&T Industry Supply

196.9

T&T ECONOMY GDP


(DIRECT AND INDIRECT)
WTTC often refers to the GDP associated
with the Travel & Tourism Industry
described above (pie on left dark blue
section), in contrast to the Travel &
Tourism Economy (pie on right dark blue
sections). Although this nomenclature may
be confusing at first, the distinction is fairly
straightforward.
The Travel & Tourism Industry is the
narrow perspective of our activity which
can be compared with other industries in
the economy.

See labels above (top right)


US$ mn
T&T Industry GDP
(Direct)

12

70.7

On the other hand, the Travel & Tourism


Economy is a broader perspective of our
activity which takes into consideration the
direct as well as the indirect contributions
by traditional travel service providers and
industry suppliers within the resident
economy. This perspective is used when
one wants to understand the total impact of
Travel & Tourism on the resident
economy.

See labels above (top right)


US$ mn
T&T Industry GDP
(Direct)
T&T Industry GDP
(Indirect)
T&T Supplier GDP
(Direct)
T&T Supplier GDP
(Indirect)
T&T Economy GDP
(Direct and Indirect)

70.7
42.3
15.6
9.3
137.9

TRAVEL & TOURISM'S


ECONOMIC IMPACT
TRAVEL & TOURISM ENCOMPASSING TRANSPORT, ACCOMMODATION, CATERING,
RECREATION AND SERVICES FOR VISITORS IS ONE OF THE WORLDS HIGHEST
PRIORITY INDUSTRIES AND EMPLOYERS.
Worldwide in 2005, it is expected to post US$6,201,490 mn of
economic activity (Total Demand) and this is forecast to grow to
US$10,678,500 mn by 2015.
Travel & Tourism Demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach
US$73,618.0 mn in 2005, growing to US$147,150.0 mn in 2015.
In Malawi, in 2005, Travel & Tourism is expected to post
MWK26,050.4 mn (US$231.7 mn) of economic activity (Total
Demand), growing to MWK77,686.5 mn (US$542.6 mn) by 2015.
In 2005, the Travel & Tourism Industry should contribute 3.8% to
worldwide GDP. The broader Travel & Tourism Economy should
contribute 10.6% to world GDP in 2005.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Travel & Tourism Industry is expected to
post a GDP contribution of 3.3% in 2005, while the Travel & Tourism
Economy contribution will be 8.8%.

Malawi's T&T Industry is expected to contribute 3.7% to Gross


Domestic Product (GDP) in 2005 (MWK7,952.0 mn or US$70.7 mn),
rising in nominal terms to MWK22,708.9 mn or US$158.6 mn (3.8%
of total) by 2015. The T&T Economy contribution (percent of total)
should rise from 7.3% (MWK15,507.1 mn or US$137.9 mn) to 7.5%
(MWK44,826.7 mn or US$313.1 mn) in this same period.
Travel & Tourism is a high-growth activity, which is forecast to
increase its total economic activity by 4.6% per annum worldwide in
real terms over the next ten years.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, Travel & Tourism is expected to post average
annualized gains of 5.8% between 2006 and 2015.
For Malawi, Travel & Tourism activity is expected to grow by 4.6%
per annum in real terms between 2006 and 2015.

Travel & Tourism is human resource intensive, creating quality jobs


across the full employment spectrum. In 2005, one in 12.0 jobs will be
generated by the Travel & Tourism Economy. The Travel & Tourism
Economy accounts for 8.3% of global employment. Today there are
74.2 million Travel & Tourism Industry jobs and 221.6 million jobs in
the Travel & Tourism Economy, and these will rise to 85.5 million
Travel & Tourism Industry jobs and 269.6 million Travel & Tourism
Economy jobs by 2015.

14

The Sub-Saharan Africa Travel & Tourism Industry is expected to


generate 3,877,200 jobs in 2005 (2.5% of total employment), while
the broader Travel & Tourism Economy will account for 10,647,000
jobs (6.8% of total employment).
Malawi T&T Economy employment is estimated at 132,861 jobs in
2005, 5.7% of total employment, or 1 in every 17.6 jobs. By 2015,
this should total 161,699 jobs, 5.9% of total employment or 1 in
every 17.1 jobs. The 67,232 T&T Industry jobs account for 2.9% of
total employment in 2005 and are forecast to total 80,771 jobs or
2.9% of the total by 2015.
Travel & Tourism is a major exporter, with inbound visitors
injecting foreign exchange directly into the economy. Travel &
Tourism exports in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to represent
12.7% of total exports in 2005.
In Malawi, exports make up a very important share of Travel &
Tourism's contribution to GDP. Of total Malawi exports, Travel &
Tourism is expected to generate 12.5% (MWK10,257.7 mn or
US$91.2 mn) in 2005, increasing to MWK30,469.7 mn, or
US$212.8 mn (11.5% of total), in 2015.
Travel & Tourism is a catalyst for construction and manufacturing.
In 2005, the public and private sectors combined are expected to
spend US$918,005.0 bn on new Travel & Tourism capital
investment worldwide - 9.4% of total investment - rising to
US$1,673,070.0 bn, or 10.0% of the total, in 2015.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, Travel & Tourism Capital Investment is
expected to total US$12,320.0 mn in 2005, or 11.9% of total
regional capital investment.
Malawi Travel & Tourism Capital Investment is estimated at
MWK1,159.3 mn, US$10.3 mn or 5.5% of total investment in year
2005. By 2015, this should reach MWK3,317.8 mn, US$23.2 mn or
5.6% of total.
Travel & Tourism is both a generator and receiver of government
funds. Globally, in 2005, Travel & Tourism is expected to garner
US$285,287.0 bn of government expenditures, or 3.8% of total
expenditures. By 2015, government spending on Travel & Tourism
should increase to US$417,368.0 bn - 4.1% of total government
expenditure.

Government Travel & Tourism operating expenditures in Malawi in


2005 are expected to total MWK562.4 mn (US$5.0 mn) or 1.3% of
total government spending. In 2015, this spending is forecast to total
MWK1,668.0 mn (US$11.7 mn), or 1.4% of total government
spending.

NATIONAL, REGIONAL, AND


WORLD SUMMARY TABLES
MALAWI ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS
2005

2015

MWK mn

% of Tot

Growth1

MWK mn

% of Tot

Growth2

Personal Travel & Tourism

6,756.6

3.8

7.5

22,282.3

4.7

5.7

Business Travel

7,314.5

---

9.0

19,948.6

---

3.7

562.4

1.3

4.7

1,668.0

1.4

4.6

Capital Investment

1,159.3

5.5

4.1

3,317.8

5.6

4.2

Visitor Exports

7,893.8

9.6

13.9

23,101.5

8.7

4.4

Other Exports

2,363.9

2.9

5.4

7,368.2

2.8

5.1

26,050.4

---

9.4

77,686.5

---

4.6

T&T Industry GDP

7,952.0

3.7

13.0

22,708.9

3.8

4.2

T&T Economy GDP

15,507.1

7.3

12.1

44,826.7

7.5

4.3

T&T Industry Employment

67.2

2.9

10.5

80.8

2.9

1.9

T&T Economy Employment

132.9

5.7

9.6

161.7

5.9

2.0

Malawi

Government Expenditures

Travel & Tourism Demand

2005 Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); 22006-2015 Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); '000 of Jobs

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS


2005

2015

Sub-Saharan Africa

US$ mn

% of Tot

Growth1

US$ mn

% of Tot

Growth2

Personal Travel & Tourism

22,571.0

5.8

7.4

46,001.0

6.5

5.9

Business Travel

10,650.0

---

8.6

19,056.0

---

5.0

1,557.0

1.5

4.6

2,789.8

1.6

4.3

Capital Investment

12,320.0

11.9

5.8

23,332.0

12.0

6.1

Visitor Exports

16,405.0

7.9

11.0

35,853.0

8.2

6.7

Other Exports

10,116.0

4.9

8.0

20,120.0

4.6

5.0

Travel & Tourism Demand

73,618.0

---

7.9

147,150.0

---

5.8

T&T Industry GDP

18,764.0

3.3

9.3

36,423.0

3.6

5.7

T&T Economy GDP

49,584.0

8.8

8.0

95,834.0

9.4

5.7

T&T Industry Employment

3,877.2

2.5

5.9

5,441.4

2.8

3.4

T&T Economy Employment

10,647.0

6.8

4.2

14,222.0

7.2

2.9

Government Expenditures

2005 Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); 22006-2015 Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); '000 of Jobs

WORLD ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS


2005
World
Personal Travel & Tourism

2015

US$ mn

% of Tot

Growth1

US$ mn

% of Tot

Growth2

2,833,110

10.4

5.1

4,601,960

11.0

3.9

Business Travel

652,898

---

4.6

962,707

---

3.1

Government Expenditures

285,287

3.8

2.9

417,368

4.1

2.8

Capital Investment

918,005

9.4

5.3

1,673,070

10.0

4.8

Visitor Exports

818,349

6.5

7.3

1,513,010

5.5

5.7

Other Exports

694,144

5.5

6.3

1,510,470

5.5

7.4

Travel & Tourism Demand

6,201,490

---

5.4

10,678,500

---

4.6

T&T Industry GDP

1,712,430

3.8

5.2

2,660,630

3.9

3.5

T&T Economy GDP

4,745,690

10.6

5.1

7,798,680

11.3

4.0

T&T Industry Employment

74,223.0

2.8

2.9

85,520.8

2.8

1.4

T&T Economy Employment

221,568.0

8.3

3.0

269,556.0

8.9

2.0

2005 Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); 22006-2015 Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); '000 of Jobs

Annualized Real Growth

1.2

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

Percent of Total Category

15
1.2

0.2
0
TSA Concepts

TSA Concepts

TOTAL DEMAND

MALAWI TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE MWK26,050.4 MN (US$231.7 MN) OF


ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (TOTAL DEMAND) IN 2005, GROWING (NOMINAL TERMS) TO
MWK77,686.5 MN (US$542.6 MN) BY 2015. TRAVEL & TOURISM DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO
GROW BY 9.4% IN 2005 AND BY 4.6% PER ANNUM, IN REAL TERMS, BETWEEN 2006 AND 2015.
2005 TOTAL DEMAND REPRESENTS 0.0% OF WORLD MARKET SHARE.
Malawi
Travel & Tourism Total Demand
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

Malawi
Total Demand 2005

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Total Demand
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

400.0

300

350.0

250

300.0
200

250.0
200.0

150

150.0

100

100.0

50

50.0
Personal T&T

Business T&T

Gov't Expenditures

Capital Investment

Visitor Exports

Other Exports

0.0
2000

Malawi Market Share of


Sub-Saharan Africa Total Demand 2005

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-50

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Total Demand
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

Malawi Market Share of


Sub-Saharan Africa Total Demand
0.70%

300

0.60%

250

0.50%

200

0.40%
150
0.30%
100

0.20%

50

0.10%
Malawi

0.00%
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Rest of Region

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

* 2005 Regional Market Share is 0.31%

Malawi Market Share of


World Total Demand 2005

Malawi

World
Travel & Tourism Total Demand
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

Malawi Market Share of


World Total Demand
0.01%

300

0.01%

250

0.00%

200

0.00%

150

0.00%

100

0.00%

50
0

0.00%
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Rest of World

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

* 2005 World Market Share is 0.00%

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Total Demand
(2005, US$ mn)

32
43
49
68
92
102
118
120
154
164

South Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Kenya
Tanzania
Senegal
Namibia
Malawi
Gambia

30,331.7
16,032.4
10,676.2
5,984.9
2,443.2
1,858.4
1,022.9
1,004.4
231.7
132.5

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Total Demand
(2005 Real Growth, %)

7
11
18
33
37
39
52
61
80
114

Morocco
Tunisia
Tanzania
Kenya
Malawi
Gambia
Egypt
Namibia
South Africa
Senegal

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Total Demand
(10-Year Real Growth, Annualized, %)

14.1
12.9
11.5
9.7
9.4
9.3
8.6
8.2
7.1
5.6

26
41
45
46
50
71
91
99
113
139

Namibia
Egypt
Tunisia
Senegal
South Africa
Morocco
Tanzania
Malawi
Kenya
Gambia

6.4
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.3
4.8
4.6
4.3
3.4
17

EMPLOYMENT

MALAWI T&T ECONOMY EMPLOYMENT IS ESTIMATED AT 132,861 JOBS IN 2005, 5.7% OF


TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, OR 1 IN EVERY 17.6 JOBS. BY 2015, THIS SHOULD TOTAL 161,699 JOBS,
5.9% OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OR 1 IN EVERY 17.1 JOBS. THE 67,232 T&T INDUSTRY JOBS
ACCOUNT FOR 2.9% OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN 2005 AND ARE FORECAST TO TOTAL 80,771
JOBS OR 2.9% OF THE TOTAL BY 2015.
Malawi
Travel & Tourism Employment
('000s of Jobs)

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Employment
(% of Total Employment)

140.0

7.0

120.0

6.0

100.0

5.0

80.0

4.0

60.0

3.0

40.0

2.0

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Employment
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)
300
250
200
150
100
50

1.0

20.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Light Blue Bar is T&T Industry Jobs; Light/Dark Blue Combination is T&T Economy Jobs

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Employment
(% of Total Employment)

2005

2010

2015

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Economy Employment
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

8.0

300

7.0

10,000.0

2000

Light Blue Line is T&T Industry Jobs; Dark Blue is T&T Economy Jobs

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Employment
('000s of Jobs)
12,000.0

1995

-50

250

6.0

8,000.0

200

5.0
4.0

6,000.0

150

3.0

4,000.0

100

2.0

2,000.0

50

1.0

0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

World
Travel & Tourism Employment
('000s of Jobs)

0
1990

World
Travel & Tourism Employment
(% of Total Employment)

250,000.0

150,000.0

6.0

2015

200

5.0

150

4.0

100

50,000.0

3.0
2.0

50

1.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2010

250

100,000.0

0.0

2005

300

9.0
8.0
7.0

2000

World
Travel & Tourism Economy Employment
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

10.0

200,000.0

1995

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-50

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Economy Employment
(2005, '000 of Jobs)

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Economy Employment
(2005, % of Total Employment)

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Economy Employment
(10-Year Real Growth, Annualized, %)

12
26
31
44
50
51
95
106
109
126

37
44
48
58
73
85
102
112
136
148

15
16
36
41
43
81
93
100
103
137

Egypt
Morocco
South Africa
Tanzania
Kenya
Tunisia
Senegal
Malawi
Gambia
Namibia

3,267.9
1,526.2
1,100.5
672.6
548.0
501.4
165.2
132.9
118.6
64.8

Gambia
Tunisia
Morocco
Egypt
Namibia
Kenya
South Africa
Tanzania
Senegal
Malawi

18.6
16.5
14.7
13.0
11.3
9.9
8.3
7.7
6.6
5.7

South Africa
Namibia
Tanzania
Kenya
Senegal
Tunisia
Egypt
Morocco
Malawi
Gambia

4.5
4.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.4
19

GROSS
DOMESTIC
PRODUCT

MALAWI'S T&T INDUSTRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE 3.7% TO GROSS DOMESTIC


PRODUCT (GDP) IN 2005 (MWK7,952.0 MN OR US$70.7 MN), RISING IN NOMINAL TERMS TO
MWK22,708.9 MN OR US$158.6 MN (3.8% OF TOTAL) BY 2015. THE T&T ECONOMY
CONTRIBUTION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) SHOULD RISE FROM 7.3% (MWK15,507.1 MN OR
US$137.9 MN) TO 7.5% (MWK44,826.7 MN OR US$313.1 MN) IN THIS SAME PERIOD.
Malawi
Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product
(% of Total GDP)
8.0

250.0

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Economy GDP
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)
300

7.0
250

200.0

6.0

150.0
100.0

5.0

200

4.0

150

3.0

100

2.0

50.0

50

1.0

0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Light Blue Bar is T&T Industry GDP; Light/Dark Blue Combination is T&T Economy GDP

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product
(1990 Constant US$ mn)
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product
(% of Total GDP)

2002

2003

2004

2005

World
Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product
(1990 Constant US$ mn)
4,000.0

300

8.0
7.0

250

2010

2015

200
150
100
50

1.0
0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

0
1990

World
Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product
(% of Total GDP)

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

World
Travel & Tourism Economy GDP
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

12.0

300

10.0

250

8.0

200

2,000.0

6.0

150

1,500.0

4.0

100

2.0

50

3,500.0

2005

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Economy GDP
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

10.0
9.0

3.0
2.0

2001

2000

Light Blue Line is T&T Industry GDP; Dark Blue is T&T Economy GDP

6.0
5.0
4.0

2000

1995

-50

3,000.0
2,500.0

1,000.0
500.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Economy GDP
(2005, US$ mn)

31
40
47
63
93
102
119
121
154
162

South Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Kenya
Tanzania
Namibia
Senegal
Malawi
Gambia

21,582.8
13,061.8
8,666.9
4,946.1
1,825.3
1,180.2
753.9
726.5
137.9
103.1

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Economy GDP
(2005, % of Total GDP)

27
39
42
48
71
78
94
109
123
135

Gambia
Tunisia
Morocco
Egypt
Kenya
Namibia
Tanzania
South Africa
Senegal
Malawi

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Economy GDP
(10-Year Real Growth, Annualized, %)

23.2
17.7
17.0
15.4
12.2
11.2
9.7
9.0
8.0
7.3

20
32
46
56
65
73
89
95
115
148

Namibia
South Africa
Egypt
Senegal
Tunisia
Morocco
Tanzania
Malawi
Kenya
Gambia

6.2
5.7
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.3
3.9
2.8
21

CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

MALAWI TRAVEL & TOURISM CAPITAL INVESTMENT IS ESTIMATED AT MWK1,159.3 MN,


US$10.3 MN OR 5.5% OF TOTAL INVESTMENT IN YEAR 2005. BY 2015, THIS SHOULD REACH
MWK3,317.8 MN, US$23.2 MN OR 5.6% OF TOTAL.

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(1990 Constant US$ mn)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(% of Total Capital Investment)

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(% of Total Capital Investment)
14.0

300

12.0

250

10.0

10.0

8.0

8.0

6.0

6.0

2000

2005

2010

2015

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

16.0
12.0

1995

-100

18.0
14.0

1990

-50

200
150

4.0

100

2.0

50

4.0
2.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

World
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(1990 Constant US$ mn)
800.0

0
1990

World
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(% of Total Capital Investment)

2000

2005

2010

2015

World
Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

12.0

300

10.0

250

8.0

200

400.0

6.0

150

300.0

4.0

100

2.0

50

700.0

1995

600.0
500.0

200.0
100.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(2005, US$ mn)

27
43
52
63
85
101
110
127
164
167

South Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Kenya
Tanzania
Senegal
Namibia
Gambia
Malawi

5,721.7
2,627.4
1,669.8
1,181.1
484.1
302.0
202.3
117.9
11.7
10.3

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(2005, % of Total Capital Investment)

29
42
44
47
61
64
67
87
129
164

Kenya
Egypt
Tunisia
Gambia
South Africa
Morocco
Tanzania
Senegal
Namibia
Malawi

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Capital Investment
(10-Year Real Growth, Annualized, %)

23.3
17.5
17.0
16.6
14.1
13.5
13.0
11.2
8.1
5.5

25
30
56
61
64
79
80
91
97
122

Morocco
Egypt
South Africa
Tunisia
Senegal
Malawi
Kenya
Gambia
Namibia
Tanzania

6.3
6.2
4.9
4.6
4.6
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.4
23

PERSONAL
& BUSINESS

MALAWI PERSONAL TRAVEL & TOURISM IS ESTIMATED AT MWK6,756.6 MN, US$60.1 MN OR


3.8% OF TOTAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION IN YEAR 2005. BY 2015, THIS SHOULD REACH
MWK22,282.3 MN, US$155.6 MN OR 4.7% OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION. MALAWI BUSINESS
TRAVEL IS ESTIMATED AT MWK7,314.5 MN, US$65.1 MN IN YEAR 2005. BY 2015, THIS SHOULD
REACH MWK19,948.6 MN OR US$139.3 MN.
Malawi
Personal & Business Travel & Tourism
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

Malawi
Personal Travel & Tourism
(% of Total Personal Consumption)

Malawi
Personal Travel & Tourism
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

7.0

250.0

300

6.0

200.0

250

5.0

150.0

200

4.0
150
3.0

100.0

100

2.0

50.0

50

1.0

0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-50

Light Blue Bar is Personal Travel & Tourism; Dark Blue Bar is Business Travel

Sub-Saharan Africa
Personal & Business Travel & Tourism
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

Sub-Saharan Africa
Personal Travel & Tourism
(% of Total Personal Consumption)

Sub-Saharan Africa
Personal Travel & Tourism
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

30.0

7.0

300

25.0

6.0

250

5.0

20.0

200

4.0

15.0

150

3.0

10.0

2.0

100

5.0

1.0

50

0.0

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

World
Personal & Business Travel & Tourism
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

0
1990

World
Personal Travel & Tourism
(% of Total Personal Consumption)
12.0

300

2,500.0

10.0

250

2,000.0

8.0

200

1,500.0

6.0

150

1,000.0

4.0

100

500.0

2.0

50

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Personal Travel & Tourism
(2005, US$ mn)

34
48
61
76
92
96
122
129
156
168

South Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Kenya
Tanzania
Senegal
Namibia
Malawi
Gambia

9,764.8
3,792.1
2,175.6
1,041.8
597.4
543.4
230.9
200.7
60.1
23.5

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Morocco
Gambia
South Africa
Egypt
Tunisia
Tanzania
Kenya
Namibia
Malawi
Senegal

2005

2010

2015

1990

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Personal Travel & Tourism
(2005, % of Total Personal Consumption)

96
100
103
105
113
116
123
125
158
162

2000

World
Personal Travel & Tourism
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

3,000.0

0.0

1995

6.6
6.4
6.3
6.1
5.9
5.8
5.4
5.2
3.8
3.4

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Personal Travel & Tourism
(10-Year Real Growth, Annualized, %)

9
12
38
41
58
59
62
69
95
115

Tunisia
Egypt
Senegal
Gambia
Namibia
Malawi
Morocco
Tanzania
South Africa
Kenya

7.6
7.4
6.2
6.2
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.4
4.8
4.1
25

EXPORTS

VISITOR EXPORTS PLAY AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT ROLE FOR THE RESIDENT TRAVEL
& TOURISM ECONOMY. MALAWI TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE 12.5% OF
TOTAL EXPORTS (MWK10,257.7 MN OR US$91.2 MN) IN 2005, GROWING (NOMINAL TERMS)
TO MWK30,469.7 MN OR US$212.8 MN (11.5% OF TOTAL) IN 2015.
Malawi
Travel & Tourism Exports
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Exports
(% of Total Exports)

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

160.0

12.0

300

140.0

10.0

250

8.0

200

120.0
100.0

150

80.0

6.0

60.0

4.0

100

40.0

50

2.0

20.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Light Blue Bar is Visitor Exports; Dark Blue Bar is Other Exports

1990

-50

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-100

Light Blue Line is Visitor Exports; Dark Blue Line is Other Exports

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Exports
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Exports
(% of Total Exports)

25.0

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

9.0

300

8.0

20.0

250

7.0
6.0

15.0

200

5.0
150

4.0

10.0

3.0

100

2.0

5.0

50

1.0

0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

World
Travel & Tourism Exports
(1990 Constant US$ mn)

0
1990

World
Travel & Tourism Exports
(% of Total Exports)

1,200.0

6.0

2015

200

5.0

150

4.0
3.0

400.0

2010

250

7.0

600.0

2005

300

8.0

800.0

2000

World
Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

9.0

1,000.0

1995

100

2.0

200.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Vistor Exports
(2005, US$ mn)

27
28
39
52
81
87
102
111
142
146

50

1.0

South Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Kenya
Tanzania
Namibia
Senegal
Gambia
Malawi

7,290.2
6,983.0
5,231.4
2,517.0
861.5
683.6
444.4
354.9
81.4
70.2

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Vistor Exports
(2005, % of Total Exports)

28
31
35
36
48
51
53
61
82
87

Tanzania
Gambia
Egypt
Morocco
Kenya
Namibia
Tunisia
Senegal
South Africa
Malawi

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Vistor Exports
(10-Year Real Growth, Annualized, %)

33.0
30.6
29.2
27.7
19.8
18.9
18.1
16.2
11.0
9.6

9
17
53
90
104
112
115
126
134
168

South Africa
Namibia
Senegal
Tunisia
Tanzania
Egypt
Kenya
Morocco
Malawi
Gambia

8.8
8.3
6.5
5.6
5.3
5.0
5.0
4.6
4.4
2.4
27

GOVERNMENT

GOVERNMENT TRAVEL & TOURISM OPERATING EXPENDITURES IN MALAWI IN 2005 ARE


EXPECTED TO TOTAL MWK562.4 MN (US$5.0 MN) OR 1.3% OF TOTAL GOVERNMENT
SPENDING. IN 2015, THIS SPENDING IS FORECAST TO TOTAL MWK1,668.0 MN (US$11.7 MN),
OR 1.4% OF TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING.
Malawi
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(1990 Constant US$ mn)
9.0

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(% of Total Government Expenditures)
2.5

300

2.0

250

8.0
7.0
6.0

Malawi
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

200

1.5

5.0

150

4.0

1.0

100

3.0
0.5

2.0

50

1.0
0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Light Blue Bar is Govt Individual; Dark Blue Bar is Govt Collective

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-50

Light Blue Line is Visitor Exports; Dark Blue Line is Other Exports

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(1990 Constant US$ mn)
1.4

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(% of Total Exports)
2.0

Sub-Saharan Africa
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)
300

1.8

1.2
1.0

1.6
1.4

0.8

1.2

250
200

1.0

0.6

0.8

0.4

0.6
0.4

0.2

150
100
50

0.2

0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

World
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(1990 Constant US$ mn)
250.0

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

0
1990

World
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(% of Total Exports)
4.5

3.0

2015

World
Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(Cumulative Real Growth, %)

150

2.0
1.5

100

1.0

50.0

50

0.5

0.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(2005, US$ mn)

35
47
52
61
67
84
99
108
162
163

2010

200

2.5

100.0

2005

250

3.5

150.0

2000

300

4.0

200.0

1995

Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
South Africa
Kenya
Tanzania
Namibia
Senegal
Malawi
Gambia

639.1
371.2
308.4
251.4
192.4
105.4
64.6
46.7
5.0
4.6

0.0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1990

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(2005, % of Total Exports)

29
40
41
42
52
82
83
86
156
173

Gambia
Tunisia
Kenya
Egypt
Tanzania
Senegal
Namibia
Morocco
Malawi
South Africa

9.3
7.2
6.9
6.6
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.6
1.3
0.5

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

WTTC LEAGUE TABLE EXTRACT


Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures
(10-Year Real Growth, Annualized, %)

21
33
34
39
40
60
84
94
98
133

Egypt
Morocco
Malawi
Gambia
Tunisia
Namibia
Tanzania
Senegal
Kenya
South Africa

5.0
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.3
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
2.3
29

RANKING AND RANGE


Year 2005 Country Rankings for Malawi within World Countries List
2005
Malawi
Personal Travel & Tourism
Business Travel
Government Expenditures
Capital Investment
Visitor Exports
Other Exports
Travel & Tourism Demand
T&T Industry GDP
T&T Economy GDP
T&T Industry Employment
T&T Economy Employment

Absolute Size

Relative Size

156
132
162
167
146
130
154
150
154
89
106

158
--156
164
87
71
--81
135
104
148

2015
Growth1 Absolute Size

59
95
58
112
37
77
37
28
20
36
27

Relative Size

Growth2

147
--156
164
93
71
--86
136
108
147

59
95
34
79
134
111
99
95
95
109
103

150
123
158
165
143
128
151
148
152
91
107

2005 Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation; 22006-2015 Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation

Total 174 Countries or 13 Regions (Largest/Highest/Best is Number 1; Smallest/Lowest/Worst is Number 174 or 13; 0 is Aggregate Region no Ranking)

Year 2005 % of Total Estimates for Malawi within World Countries Range
120

% of Total Category

100

80

60

40

20

0
T&T Economy
Employment

T&T Industry
Employment

T&T Economy
GDP

T&T Industry
GDP

Other Exports

Visitor Exports

Capital
Investment

Government
Expenditures

Personal Travel
& Tourism

TSA Concepts

Ten Year (2006-2015) Growth Estimates for Malawi Within World Countries Range
20

Annualized % Real Growth

15

10

-5
T&T Economy
Employment

T&T Industry
Employment

T&T Economy
GDP

T&T Industry
GDP

Travel & Tourism


Demand

Other Exports

Visitor Exports

Capital
Investment

Government
Expenditures

Business Travel

Personal Travel
& Tourism

30

TSA Concepts

CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH


Travel & Tourism Industry GDP Contribution and Growth - All Countries
40%

Low Growth
High Contribution

35%

High Growth
High Contribution

% of Total GDP (2005)

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

High Growth
Low Contribution

Low Growth
Low Contribution
0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Annualized Real Growth (2006-2015)

Travel & Tourism Industry Employment Contribution and Growth - All Countries
50%
Low Growth
High Contribution
45%

High Growth
High Contribution

40%
% of Total Empl (2005)

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Low Growth
Low Contribution
0%
-2%

High Growth
Low Contribution
0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Annualized Real Growth (2006-2015)

Travel & Tourism Capital Investment Contribution and Growth - All Countries
100%
Low Growth
High Contribution

High Growth
High Contribution

90%

% of Total Capital Investment (2005)

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Low Growth
Low Contribution
-4%

-2%

10%

High Growth
Low Contribution

0%
0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Annualized Real Growth (2006-2015)

Malawi Data Point Indicated in Yellow and Red

31

SATELLITE ACCOUNT TABLES

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004E

2005E

2015P

Personal Travel & Tourism

4,374.80

5,290.50

8,343.02

4,924.64

5,759.58

6,756.61

22,282.30

Business Travel & Tourism

2,471.25

3,739.56

4,609.39

5,141.29

6,148.32

7,314.47

19,948.60

2,141.26

3,202.01

3,946.39

4,320.60

5,169.11

6,153.18

16,810.70

329.99

537.55

663.00

820.69

979.21

1,161.29

3,137.91

67.73

84.46

102.07

130.71

149.81

168.71

495.90

Visitor Exports

1,857.77

3,082.81

3,443.25

4,717.02

6,351.94

7,893.80

23,101.50

Travel & Tourism Consumption

8,771.55

12,197.30

16,497.70

14,913.70

18,409.70

22,133.60

65,828.40

Gov't Expenditures - Collective

147.77

199.64

238.16

301.65

342.43

393.67

1,172.13

Capital Investment

610.56

776.84

673.16

889.66

1,020.99

1,159.28

3,317.82

Exports (Non-Visitor)

920.37

1,172.41

1,048.00

1,653.44

2,055.72

2,363.86

7,368.24

10,450.30

14,346.20

18,457.10

17,758.40

21,828.80

26,050.40

77,686.50

Travel & Tourism - MWK mn

Corporate
Government
Gov't Expenditures - Individual

Travel & Tourism Demand

Travel & Tourism Industry Aggregates (Direct Impact Only)


Employment ('000)
Gross Domestic Product

39.23

55.56

57.76

53.64

60.82

67.23

80.77

2,442.26

4,063.02

4,951.16

5,102.51

6,452.21

7,951.96

22,708.90

Travel & Tourism Economy Aggregates (Direct and Indirect Impacts)


Employment ('000)
Gross Domestic Product

82.84

112.93

111.74

107.71

121.18

132.86

161.70

5,069.86

8,135.62

9,462.82

10,101.10

12,679.10

15,507.10

44,826.70

Travel & Tourism Accounts as % of National Accounts


Personal Travel & Tourism

5.00

4.72

6.53

3.52

3.65

3.81

4.74

Gov't Expenditures

1.27

1.28

1.28

1.28

1.29

1.29

1.37

Capital Investment

4.79

5.63

4.85

5.43

5.48

5.48

5.57

Exports

10.18

11.91

11.83

11.31

11.91

12.50

11.51

T&T Imports

14.36

13.37

14.75

9.68

9.72

9.96

10.98

Travel & Tourism Industry Aggregates (Direct Impact Only)


Employment

1.86

2.58

2.62

2.39

2.66

2.88

2.93

Gross Domestic Product

2.40

3.33

3.40

3.09

3.44

3.73

3.79

Travel & Tourism Economy Aggregates (Direct and Indirect Impacts)


Employment

3.92

5.24

5.08

4.80

5.29

5.70

5.86

Gross Domestic Product

4.99

6.68

6.49

6.12

6.76

7.28

7.48

Travel & Tourism Real Growth (per annum except 2015 = 10-year annualized)

32

Personal Travel & Tourism

6.92

-3.41

34.21

-44.78

5.37

7.53

5.67

Business Travel & Tourism

26.62

20.86

4.90

4.35

7.74

9.05

3.68

Gov't Expenditures

38.63

5.29

1.92

18.88

2.57

4.72

4.55

Capital Investment

-0.47

1.62

-26.25

23.64

3.39

4.08

4.18

Visitor Exports

37.70

32.54

-4.94

28.16

21.32

13.91

4.42

Other Exports

6.29

1.74

-23.93

47.60

12.01

5.40

5.08

Travel & Tourism Consumption

17.90

11.06

15.11

-15.43

11.21

10.20

5.11

Travel & Tourism Demand

15.76

9.64

9.49

-9.99

10.74

9.39

4.61

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004E

2005E

2015P

Travel & Tourism Industry Aggregates (Direct Impact Only)


Gross Domestic Product

33.72

32.87

3.71

-3.59

13.92

12.97

4.16

Employment

35.03

41.62

3.95

-7.13

13.38

10.54

1.85

Travel & Tourism Economy Aggregates (Direct and Indirect Impact)


Gross Domestic Product

28.81

28.17

-1.01

-0.14

13.08

12.11

4.29

Employment

29.81

36.32

-1.06

-3.61

12.51

9.64

1.99

Personal Travel & Tourism

73.47

73.28

108.79

50.54

53.24

60.10

155.64

Business Travel & Tourism

41.50

51.80

60.11

52.77

56.83

65.06

139.34

35.96

44.35

51.46

44.34

47.78

54.73

117.42

5.54

7.45

8.65

8.42

9.05

10.33

21.92

1.14

1.17

1.33

1.34

1.38

1.50

3.46

31.20

42.70

44.90

48.41

58.71

70.22

161.36

147.31

168.95

215.13

153.07

170.16

196.88

459.79

Travel & Tourism - US$ mn

Corporate
Government
Gov't Expenditures - Individual
Visitor Exports
Travel & Tourism Consumption
Gov't Expenditures - Collective

2.48

2.77

3.11

3.10

3.17

3.50

8.19

Capital Investment

10.25

10.76

8.78

9.13

9.44

10.31

23.17

Exports (Non-Visitor)

15.46

16.24

13.67

16.97

19.00

21.03

51.47

175.51

198.71

240.68

182.26

201.76

231.72

542.62

Travel & Tourism Demand

Travel & Tourism Industry Aggregates (Direct Impact Only)


Employment ('000)

39.23

55.56

57.76

53.64

60.82

67.23

80.77

Gross Domestic Product

41.02

56.28

64.56

52.37

59.64

70.73

158.62

Travel & Tourism Economy Aggregates (Direct and Indirect Impacts)


Employment ('000)

82.84

112.93

111.74

107.71

121.18

132.86

161.70

Gross Domestic Product

85.14

112.69

123.40

103.67

117.19

137.94

313.10

Personal Travel & Tourism

113.50

109.63

147.13

81.25

85.61

92.05

159.79

Business Travel & Tourism

64.12

77.49

81.29

84.82

91.39

99.65

143.05

1.76

1.75

1.80

2.16

2.23

2.30

3.56

48.20

63.88

60.72

77.82

94.41

107.55

165.66

227.58

252.75

290.95

246.05

273.63

301.55

472.05

3.83

4.14

4.20

4.98

5.09

5.36

8.41

15.84

16.10

11.87

14.68

15.18

15.79

23.79

Travel & Tourism - 1990 Constant US$ million

Gov't Expenditures - Individual


Visitor Exports
Travel & Tourism Consumption
Gov't Expenditures - Collective
Capital Investment
Exports (Non-Visitor)
Travel & Tourism Demand

23.88

24.29

18.48

27.28

30.56

32.21

52.84

271.13

297.28

325.50

292.99

324.46

354.91

557.08

Gross Domestic Product


Travel & Tourism Industry

63.36

84.19

87.32

84.18

95.90

108.34

162.84

Travel & Tourism Economy

131.54

168.59

166.88

166.65

188.46

211.27

321.45

33

2005/2004 VARIANCE CHARTS


Personal Travel & Tourism
1990 Constant US$ mn

Personal Travel & Tourism


% of Total Consumption

Business Travel & Tourism


1990 Constant US$ mn

7.0

160.00

160.00

6.0

140.00

140.00

5.0

180.00

120.00

120.00

100.00

4.0

100.00

80.00

80.00

3.0

60.00

2.0

40.00

60.00
40.00

1.0

20.00

0.0

0.00

20.00

2014
2012
2010

2008

2006

2004

2002
2000

1998
1996

1994

1992

1990
1988

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

14.00

1992

Travel & Tourism Govt Expenditures


1990 Constant US$ mn

1990

2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988

1988

0.00

Travel & Tourism Govt Expenditures


% of Total Govt Expenditures
2.5

12.00
2.0
10.00
8.00

1.5

6.00

1.0

4.00
0.5
2.00
0.00

0.0
2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports


1990 Constant US$ mn

Travel & Tourism Exports


% of Total Exports

180.00

Travel & Tourism Consumption


1990 Constant US$ mn

14.0

160.00

500.00
450.00

12.0

400.00

140.00
10.0

350.00

100.00

8.0

300.00

80.00

6.0

200.00

4.0

150.00

120.00

250.00

60.00
40.00

100.00
2.0

20.00
0.00

50.00

0.0

2014
2012
2010

2008

2006

2004

2002
2000

1998
1996

1994

Travel & Tourism Capital Investment


% of Total Capital Investment

1992

1990
1988

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

35.00

1990

1988

2014
2012
2010

2008
2006

2004
2002
2000

1998
1996
1994

1992
1990
1988

Travel & Tourism Capital Investment


1990 Constant US$ mn
40.00

0.00

Travel & Tourism Demand


1990 Constant US$ mn

12.0

600.00

10.0

500.00

8.0

400.00

6.0

300.00

4.0

200.00

2.0

100.00

0.0

0.00

30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00

2014
2012
2010

2008

2006

2004

2002
2000

1998
1996

1994

1992

1990
1988

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

34

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

OEF's Year 2005 Estimates


Solid Dark Blue

OEF's Year 2004 Estimates


Dashed Light Blue

Travel & Tourism Industry GDP


1990 Constant US$ mn

Travel & Tourism Industry GDP


% of Total GDP

180.00

4.5

160.00

4.0

140.00

3.5

120.00

3.0

100.00

2.5

80.00

2.0

60.00

1.5

40.00

1.0

20.00

0.5

0.00

0.0

The WTTC 2005 Simulated


Tourism Satellite Accounts
This years TSA research continues our
practice of incremental enhancement.

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

2014
2012
2010

2008
2006

2004
2002
2000

1998
1996
1994

1992
1990
1988

Travel & Tourism Economy GDP


1990 Constant US$ mn

Travel & Tourism Economy GDP


% of Total GDP

350.00

8.00

300.00

7.00
6.00

250.00

5.00

200.00

4.00
150.00
3.00
100.00

2.00

50.00

1.00

0.00

0.00
2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002

2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988

Travel & Tourism Industry Empl.


'000 of Jobs

Travel & Tourism Industry Empl.


% of Total Employment

90.00

3.5

80.00

3.0

70.00
2.5

60.00
50.00

2.0

40.00

1.5

30.00

1.0

20.00
0.5

10.00

0.0

0.00

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

Travel & Tourism Economy Empl.


'000 of Jobs

Travel & Tourism Economy Empl.


% of Total Employment

180.0

5.0

100.0

4.0

80.0

3.0

60.0

As always we have updated data with the


latest figures available from the original
sources and on taking account of more
timely indicators of Travel and Tourism
where available. In some cases changes are
also apparent as a result of further work on
the macroeconomic data and forecasts, as
part of OEFs ongoing monitoring of the
state of economies around the world.

New balance of payments data shows significant


changes to resident spending abroad.
Merchandise trade data has also been revised.

6.0

140.0
120.0

This year the research enhancement has


been focused on improving the
macroeconomic data and forecasts for the
non-OECD countries. These countries
typically have less so phisticated data
sources and reporting mechanisms, so
greater time and effort was taken to
discover new data sources and to validate
old da ta sources so the TSA estimates
could better reflect reality in t hese
economies.

Malawi
Notes for 2005

7.0

160.0

In 2003, a number of methodological


enhancements were made to improve the
calculations of various concepts of the
models, while in 2004 the focus was on
extending the country coverage to include
13 new economies.

2.0

40.0
20.0

1.0

0.0

0.0
2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

OEF's Year 2004 Estimates


Solid Dark Blue

OEF's Year 2003 Estimates


Dashed Light Blue
35

WORLD AT A GLANCE
Data Source Confidence and Forecast Margin of Error
2005 Personal T&T (% Total Consumption)
2005 T&T Demand (US$ mn)
2005 T&T Visitor Exports (% Real Growth)
2005 T&T Demand (% Real Growth)
2005 T&T Visitor Exports (% Total Exports)
2005 T&T Demand Market Share (% of Total World Demand)
2005 T&T Govt Expd. (% Total Govt)
2005 T&T Industry GDP (% of Total GDP)
2005 T&T Economy GDP (% of Total GDP)
2005 T&T Industry Jobs ('000)
2005 T&T Industry Jobs (% of Total Employment)
2005 T&T Economy Jobs ('000)
2005 T&T Economy Jobs (% of Total Employment)
2005 T&T Capital Investment (% of Total Investment)
2005 T&T Capital Investment (% Real Growth)

WORLD

6,201,490

5.4

100.0

3.8

10.6

74,223

221,568

8.3

9.4

5.3

6.5

7.3

10.4

3.8

Moderate
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low

45,535
111
837
2,072
3,883
1,686
991
459
671
4,921
843
99
7,026
154
1,046
375
3,914
1,407
9,802
172
493
194
2,042
2,338

3.3
7.8
9.0
5.8
11.0
10.7
6.8
10.7
-1.6
4.9
7.3
9.8
-14.4
8.6
3.1
1.2
10.0
1.4
4.8
9.3
9.2
6.5
5.9
7.9

0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

4.7
24.6
25.0
21.3
18.4
16.1
6.0
38.0
9.4
4.1
2.1
9.6
7.5
5.0
8.4
2.2
10.8
2.0
1.6
7.8
15.0
10.3
2.4
9.8

15.4
71.4
86.0
70.9
54.7
48.0
20.4
95.2
29.9
13.2
6.5
26.0
22.9
24.3
27.3
6.0
36.2
8.9
5.8
28.6
42.8
31.8
10.7
33.7

781
2
11
18
43
27
3
3
3
158
2
3
233
2
25
58
121
6
24
2
11
4
15
6

5
29
35
30
26
20
8
38
13
4
3
9
7
5
8
2
10
3
2
9
16
10
3
14

2,380
5
29
51
116
74
9
8
9
497
4
9
696
9
78
159
394
24
81
6
30
13
59
18

15.1
77.3
95.0
85.8
68.7
55.3
24.5
94.1
36.8
11.3
8.0
23.8
19.8
22.0
25.5
4.7
31.9
9.3
6.0
29.1
43.2
28.6
10.4
40.3

20.7
54.4
51.8
76.4
66.1
62.9
45.8
51.1
58.8
16.5
17.6
15.8
24.7
24.2
21.0
4.7
33.7
17.6
8.0
25.2
40.2
28.3
17.1
58.0

7.5
2.9
3.8
3.6
17.8
4.5
2.4
-1.3
13.1
1.5
1.8
4.5
3.5
56.9
-0.9
12.9
17.7
4.3
6.7
6.2
6.9
1.5
4.3
3.2

17.3
79.2
71.9
30.1
69.2
56.6
22.9
65.6
38.7
40.4
10.1
36.4
36.6
21.7
19.1
10.5
44.7
12.2
5.0
38.5
77.4
48.1
7.1
38.0

2.2
10.1
13.5
7.1
11.4
15.2
10.9
13.6
-8.5
8.5
10.7
13.8
-22.5
-22.0
7.1
-0.7
10.1
4.2
6.4
14.0
11.0
9.5
7.2
12.5

6.4
10.9
22.5
22.5
23.2
11.5
7.5
54.3
5.9
4.8
14.5
11.6
4.7
11.8
7.0
3.8
7.6
5.1
5.2
10.9
12.3
9.2
7.1
9.9

8.7
13.5
27.8
16.3
13.8
15.6
17.6
26.7
27.7
5.7
4.8
6.1
20.9
11.9
20.5
3.0
16.7
7.7
4.1
14.2
16.9
11.9
4.1
19.6

Central and Eastern Europe


Albania
Low
Belarus
Low
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Moderate
Bulgaria
Moderate
Croatia
High
Macedonia
Moderate
Montenegro
Moderate
Romania
Moderate
Russian Federation
High
Ukraine
Moderate
Yugoslavia
Moderate

234,750
1,898
2,994
642
6,862
11,106
602
427
8,218
87,066
14,178
1,664

3.6
15.9
8.6
0.7
7.3
4.9
1.6
8.5
5.8
3.3
3.6
9.7

3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.4
0.2
0.0

2.2
4.7
1.9
1.3
4.6
9.0
1.7
8.5
1.3
1.6
3.2
1.2

9.6
14.1
8.2
5.8
15.6
19.6
6.9
14.8
5.8
9.0
12.8
4.8

2,846
55
79
12
139
117
11
13
115
979
566
43

2
4
2
1
4
10
2
9
1
1
3
1

12,272
165
344
55
474
256
43
23
492
5,250
2,316
160

8.3
11.4
6.7
4.7
13.3
22.9
6.4
15.8
4.9
7.7
10.3
4.3

11.8
7.0
6.8
7.8
13.7
10.2
9.6
16.2
8.0
15.8
18.2
8.3

9.1
13.9
9.6
5.8
11.2
3.4
7.4
-10.3
10.2
11.1
1.5
13.3

6.9
41.0
3.5
2.2
17.5
29.3
4.8
35.3
3.4
4.0
12.8
1.3

0.8
19.9
9.8
0.4
4.0
6.2
2.3
13.6
-8.9
-1.5
3.5
17.4

7.8
10.9
8.6
4.3
10.8
12.2
4.4
6.0
4.3
9.1
9.5
4.1

3.0
3.8
1.0
1.1
3.2
1.4
1.3
2.8
3.4
2.7
5.0
0.8

2,271,900
78,651
76,124
5,120
24,668
38,417
3,337
28,023
365,350
439,766
38,858
15,261
31,765
272,851
1,805
3,985
7,603
2,152
96,200
34,461
42,709
9,195
6,810
245,554
49,789
353,440

4.1
4.4
2.8
3.5
1.8
4.8
1.7
6.0
3.7
3.5
11.6
3.1
7.0
3.4
4.9
6.5
6.3
4.4
3.2
-0.5
5.1
7.0
5.2
4.0
6.8
5.1

36.6
1.3
1.2
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.5
5.9
7.1
0.6
0.2
0.5
4.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.6
0.6
0.7
0.1
0.1
4.0
0.8
5.7

4.2
6.1
3.6
10.4
2.5
3.5
4.9
3.7
4.9
2.8
7.2
4.2
2.8
4.9
1.3
1.6
3.4
14.7
3.6
1.6
7.2
1.9
2.9
7.3
2.7
3.9

11.5
16.7
10.5
22.7
13.8
9.4
20.3
10.4
12.5
9.6
16.2
9.3
9.3
11.4
6.2
8.5
10.5
28.4
9.5
7.6
17.3
12.4
12.4
18.9
8.1
10.1

8,926
284
165
54
124
92
30
89
1,528
1,172
324
214
54
1,159
14
23
7
30
258
239
425
48
37
1,379
101
1,076

4
7
4
15
3
3
4
4
6
3
8
5
3
5
1
1
4
21
4
2
8
2
4
8
2
4

24,301
764
469
108
611
254
122
261
3,671
3,959
750
345
161
2,749
63
118
23
51
655
1,035
1,036
288
135
3,492
323
2,857

12.1
18.6
11.2
28.9
12.9
9.3
17.7
10.9
15.1
10.3
18.2
8.9
8.5
12.2
5.3
7.2
12.4
35.0
9.2
7.1
20.2
11.0
14.4
20.3
7.6
9.3

8.8
13.5
6.4
21.4
11.5
10.1
21.3
12.1
7.4
6.1
10.7
7.4
16.1
7.9
9.7
10.1
6.4
33.1
6.6
8.1
10.8
11.9
10.5
14.5
7.1
8.5

3.4
2.4
-4.6
4.7
8.6
0.8
-7.0
8.7
2.8
-0.3
1.7
7.2
11.0
2.8
-6.6
-5.1
14.1
3.7
0.4
4.9
2.9
8.5
6.7
6.6
10.5
4.1

7.2
13.9
3.1
43.9
6.4
6.3
12.9
4.9
10.1
3.7
37.0
7.1
4.0
9.5
5.8
7.0
2.8
20.7
4.7
7.0
15.5
3.2
8.4
15.7
4.7
6.7

6.0
8.5
4.8
1.5
1.6
9.2
2.9
8.4
3.0
5.1
23.3
2.8
6.2
7.8
1.2
1.8
9.1
5.2
7.5
-8.3
9.4
5.7
-0.2
-0.5
10.4
10.6

12.2
16.8
14.0
8.3
7.7
11.3
10.1
11.4
12.7
11.4
9.3
7.2
8.6
11.3
6.9
7.6
18.6
7.1
12.3
6.0
13.3
7.4
9.7
15.0
10.3
13.5

3.2
4.8
3.2
9.2
3.7
2.5
8.1
3.1
3.2
2.2
3.7
5.2
3.6
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
11.3
2.2
2.7
6.5
2.1
4.2
6.4
2.2
2.9

Caribbean
Anguilla
Antigua and Barbuda
Aruba
Bahamas
Barbados
Bermuda
British Virgin Islands
Cayman Islands
Cuba
Curaao
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Grenada
Guadeloupe
Haiti
Jamaica
Martinique
Puerto Rico
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
St Vincent and the Grenadines
Trinidad and Tobago
Virgin Islands

European Union
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus*
Czech Republic*
Denmark
Estonia*
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary*
Ireland
Italy
Latvia*
Lithuania*
Luxembourg
Malta*
Netherlands
Poland*
Portugal
Slovakia*
Slovenia*
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom

High
High
Moderate
High
High
Moderate
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High

High
High confidence in data sources.
Moderate Countries with moderate confidence in data sources.
Low
Countries with forecast subjust to high uncertainty and/or with limited access to data.

36

*The new EU accession countries are presented, analyzed and compared in this report within the European Union "Region" although their estimates
are also included within their geographic regional totals of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and North Africa respectively.

WORLD AT A GLANCE
Data Source Confidence and Forecast Margin of Error
2005 Personal T&T (% Total Consumption)
2005 T&T Demand (US$ mn)
2005 T&T Visitor Exports (% Real Growth)
2005 T&T Demand (% Real Growth)
2005 T&T Visitor Exports (% Total Exports)
2005 T&T Demand Market Share (% of Total World Demand)
2005 T&T Govt Expd. (% Total Govt)
2005 T&T Industry GDP (% of Total GDP)
2005 T&T Economy GDP (% of Total GDP)
2005 T&T Industry Jobs ('000)
2005 T&T Industry Jobs (% of Total Employment)
2005 T&T Economy Jobs ('000)
2005 T&T Economy Jobs (% of Total Employment)
2005 T&T Capital Investment (% of Total Investment)
2005 T&T Capital Investment (% Real Growth)

Latin America
Argentina
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela

High
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate

133,420
17,729
316
1,100
55,104
9,213
9,756
3,618
3,717
2,032
2,778
160
1,428
640
2,716
851
7,740
187
2,060
12,276

5.8
8.5
9.4
9.3
5.1
6.2
2.4
9.7
6.5
6.7
8.3
4.5
7.3
8.8
7.4
5.6
6.2
8.7
5.7
0.2

2.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2

2.9
2.6
7.8
3.5
3.1
2.4
2.3
5.5
2.3
3.2
2.9
2.7
4.4
2.7
5.2
2.1
3.4
2.0
4.1
2.0

7.6
7.8
20.0
9.2
7.2
6.5
6.6
13.7
8.6
7.8
6.9
9.3
10.4
6.9
13.5
7.3
8.2
5.4
9.8
8.8

4,910
531
6
100
2,475
161
380
90
104
80
124
7
96
45
60
38
332
3
67
210

3
4
8
3
3
3
2
6
2
3
3
2
4
2
5
2
3
2
5
2

12,305
1,321
15
266
5,828
397
1,042
211
379
194
289
24
227
117
150
128
773
8
149
787

7.3
9.1
19.7
7.6
7.0
6.8
5.9
13.3
7.4
6.8
6.0
7.7
8.5
5.6
12.9
6.4
7.6
4.9
10.7
8.1

9.5
10.0
24.5
15.9
8.2
8.7
11.2
16.8
14.3
11.7
9.3
22.1
9.8
7.1
13.8
14.9
10.6
7.8
14.3
11.9

8.3
12.1
3.9
7.0
8.6
9.4
3.5
3.1
8.0
3.6
4.8
2.2
6.8
5.7
4.0
3.2
4.3
5.4
13.7
4.4

6.8
7.2
22.3
15.3
5.4
4.9
7.0
18.0
5.4
16.2
18.6
4.2
14.9
11.2
13.4
3.3
9.3
4.2
13.6
1.8

8.9
12.2
14.1
16.1
6.1
6.7
2.9
12.5
10.1
10.6
13.8
11.2
5.1
12.4
10.7
11.4
8.8
15.8
6.0
17.0

5.7
6.4
7.3
5.1
6.0
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.2
4.3
4.3
7.4
8.0
6.3
7.5
4.3
6.4
11.8
5.4
4.4

2.9
2.4
12.1
3.1
2.8
4.1
2.0
6.1
3.7
2.5
4.6
5.9
4.0
2.1
4.8
7.9
2.7
1.7
5.0
3.5

Middle East
Bahrain
Iran
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
United Arab Emirates
Yemen

Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Low

128,610
3,206
21,494
15,093
3,059
8,926
4,329
4,049
5,599
27,353
8,133
20,743
1,509

4.8
9.1
6.7
6.7
8.3
6.4
5.7
7.6
8.1
0.7
5.9
2.4
5.9

2.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.0

2.7
7.6
3.6
2.4
6.3
1.5
3.6
1.8
4.2
2.2
2.1
1.3
1.9

9.7
20.4
10.0
7.1
16.1
7.3
12.8
10.3
18.7
9.1
6.0
12.5
8.5

1,388
29
647
95
89
24
58
18
19
99
132
28
96

3
10
3
3
6
2
4
2
6
3
2
2
2

3,998
69
1,710
231
218
82
194
75
71
306
333
184
417

9.1
23.4
8.9
8.3
14.7
7.6
12.4
10.3
21.8
9.7
6.1
12.4
7.2

10.4
4.2
4.4
13.3
18.5
10.9
11.1
8.8
11.1
7.7
7.0
30.4
12.8

5.1
7.5
8.1
4.3
3.5
4.8
4.5
5.9
7.6
6.3
3.2
3.5
6.0

5.8
11.9
6.9
4.5
20.5
1.4
51.1
1.1
11.7
3.2
17.7
2.7
2.9

8.5
10.1
13.3
11.2
10.3
9.8
10.1
16.7
8.7
4.9
7.8
9.1
2.7

9.3
20.0
13.8
7.7
9.3
23.3
8.9
13.4
15.3
5.9
4.5
10.7
2.8

2.3
3.8
2.9
2.1
10.3
1.2
9.1
1.2
5.4
0.9
3.1
1.9
1.2

North Africa
Algeria
Egypt
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia

Low
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate

47,322
7,834
16,032
4,642
10,676
5,985

9.0
6.5
8.6
6.3
14.1
12.9

0.8
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1

6.2
1.8
8.3
3.2
9.5
8.8

13.1
6.4
15.4
14.1
17.0
17.7

3,137
148
1,776
54
866
262

6
2
7
4
8
9

5,999
482
3,268
170
1,526
501

12.4
5.6
13.0
14.2
14.7
16.5

13.2
5.9
17.5
31.2
13.5
17.0

6.8
10.4
4.8
7.5
9.0
5.3

14.7
1.1
29.2
0.8
27.7
18.1

13.1
10.7
9.6
9.3
20.4
19.6

6.3
4.8
6.1
11.6
6.6
5.9

4.1
1.1
6.6
2.6
3.6
7.2

1,880,200
179,963
113,259
1,586,990

5.7
4.1
11.6
5.6

30.3
2.9
1.8
25.6

4.2
3.8
5.2
4.1

11.0
11.8
14.5
10.8

8,634
736
1,310
6,588

5
5
5
5

23,012
2,070
4,120
16,821

12.3
12.8
14.2
11.9

10.3
8.1
10.4
10.5

4.1
6.0
16.0
3.4

6.8
3.6
5.9
7.9

7.4
8.9
18.5
6.1

10.5
12.9
12.2
10.2

5.0
4.0
4.8
5.1

North America
Canada
Mexico
United States

High
High
High

Northeast Asia
China
Chinese Taipei
Hong Kong
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Macau

High
High
High
High
High
Moderate

974,200
265,059
35,621
48,196
531,584
87,985
5,762

6.0
10.1
8.2
11.4
3.1
6.3
14.6

15.7
4.3
0.6
0.8
8.6
1.4
0.1

3.0
2.4
1.6
2.0
3.5
1.6
20.1

9.8
11.7
5.7
12.5
9.6
7.3
54.6

17,941
14,296
223
101
2,737
518
66

2
2
2
3
4
2
28

74,819
64,625
662
352
7,180
1,837
164

8.8
8.6
6.6
10.4
11.3
8.0
69.6

8.1
9.9
9.5
14.9
5.9
8.6
86.9

7.3
10.4
10.5
10.8
2.6
5.6
9.5

3.1
3.6
2.9
2.6
2.4
2.5
41.7

9.4
7.5
9.8
13.5
14.8
-0.2
17.0

10.2
10.8
6.9
15.4
10.4
7.8
10.0

3.9
3.8
1.7
7.5
4.1
2.5
12.3

High
Low
Low
High
Low
Low
Low
Low

128,632
99,629
966
28
21,001
6,762
45
34
166

8.1
9.1
14.7
12.6
3.3
4.7
10.5
9.5
14.7

2.1
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

6.0
5.6
12.0
9.7
7.1
12.0
3.1
4.9
17.2

13.3
12.4
29.7
26.0
14.9
32.4
9.7
14.0
42.5

848
572
41
2
155
62
5
1
9

7
6
12
8
8
17
3
4
16

1,894
1,274
97
6
327
146
17
4
22

14.8
13.0
27.7
21.3
16.7
39.8
8.0
12.1
38.3

12.1
11.2
39.3
15.8
12.2
72.5
22.9
25.0
37.7

6.5
7.4
3.9
2.4
1.2
4.2
5.0
3.6
5.5

18.0
15.3
35.0
21.1
19.7
50.5
6.1
31.4
50.2

15.1
19.5
22.4
19.3
4.6
4.8
12.8
17.9
20.7

12.0
12.0
8.5
7.2
13.1
5.7
8.3
3.6
15.6

4.1
3.8
12.8
2.4
3.5
19.4
2.7
5.7
13.7

Oceania
Australia
Fiji
Kiribati
New Zealand
Other Oceania
Solomon Islands
Tonga
Vanuatu

High
High confidence in data sources.
Moderate Countries with moderate confidence in data sources.
Low
Countries with forecast subjust to high uncertainty and/or with limited access to data.

37

WORLD AT A GLANCE
Data Source Confidence and Forecast Margin of Error
2005 Personal T&T (% Total Consumption)
2005 T&T Demand (US$ mn)
2005 T&T Visitor Exports (% Real Growth)
2005 T&T Demand (% Real Growth)
2005 T&T Visitor Exports (% Total Exports)
2005 T&T Demand Market Share (% of Total World Demand)
2005 T&T Govt Expd. (% Total Govt)
2005 T&T Industry GDP (% of Total GDP)
2005 T&T Economy GDP (% of Total GDP)
2005 T&T Industry Jobs ('000)
2005 T&T Industry Jobs (% of Total Employment)
2005 T&T Economy Jobs ('000)
2005 T&T Economy Jobs (% of Total Employment)
2005 T&T Capital Investment (% of Total Investment)
2005 T&T Capital Investment (% Real Growth)

Other Western Europe


Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
Turkey

Moderate
High
High
High

165,330
3,689
39,342
76,400
45,896

5.9
6.1
7.2
3.9
7.8

2.7
0.1
0.6
1.2
0.7

5.0
7.1
2.7
6.2
5.5

12.0
19.4
8.9
14.3
11.4

1,239
11
68
353
807

4
7
3
8
4

2,717
36
248
779
1,655

9.6
22.0
10.8
18.5
7.7

7.9
18.7
6.9
7.9
8.2

-7.9
0.9
10.3
-1.4
-20.2

10.2
15.7
4.4
8.6
19.9

13.1
9.6
10.2
9.7
15.9

12.1
13.2
11.7
16.2
7.9

5.0
13.0
5.5
7.5
0.6

South Asia
Bangladesh
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka

Moderate
High
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate

59,328
3,194
44,713
574
919
7,022
2,906

10.0
7.3
10.9
-14.2
8.4
10.0
2.9

1.0
0.1
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0

2.2
1.6
2.1
32.3
4.4
2.6
3.8

5.5
3.8
5.3
62.6
9.1
5.9
9.5

13,547
959
10,762
32
366
1,174
255

2
1
2
28
3
2
3

30,795
2,352
24,266
61
774
2,689
654

5.2
3.0
5.5
54.2
7.1
4.8
7.8

7.5
4.5
7.3
29.5
12.4
11.3
11.5

13.6
5.0
14.2
19.2
2.6
11.6
18.9

4.0
0.9
3.3
64.7
16.1
4.7
9.4

3.4
11.8
5.5
-21.9
10.8
15.0
-11.3

4.6
3.2
4.7
34.5
4.6
4.7
6.1

1.2
2.1
0.9
14.8
5.0
1.9
4.4

Southeast Asia
Brunei Darussalam
Burma
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam

Low
Low
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
High
High
Moderate

165,450
989
22,532
1,033
34,452
376
28,711
1,021
10,035
26,850
31,997
7,451

6.3
1.0
0.8
7.6
8.6
14.6
14.9
13.4
7.5
7.0
-2.4
8.9

2.7
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.1

2.8
3.3
1.6
7.3
3.1
5.5
5.3
5.8
2.7
2.6
5.2
2.2

7.5
13.4
3.4
17.2
8.9
11.4
15.6
14.5
7.3
10.6
11.7
8.7

6,961
8
323
396
2,445
108
560
121
917
55
1,397
632

3
5
2
6
3
4
5
5
3
2
4
2

19,306
24
652
949
7,090
227
1,443
305
2,837
183
2,984
2,613

7.9
14.3
3.1
13.5
7.4
8.9
13.7
11.9
9.4
8.3
8.4
7.0

10.6
13.0
4.8
16.0
11.9
9.1
16.9
20.5
10.8
17.6
9.7
8.8

9.1
5.0
1.2
3.1
13.3
6.6
10.8
4.1
6.0
1.7
12.3
6.6

4.9
1.2
1.5
17.9
5.7
26.3
5.8
10.0
4.6
2.3
8.9
1.0

1.1
5.1
10.6
9.8
1.6
21.5
18.1
20.3
8.7
13.1
-14.9
14.1

6.7
5.6
4.3
3.3
6.0
2.4
9.7
15.5
5.6
16.0
11.7
8.4

5.1
2.3
2.8
9.1
8.9
7.8
1.7
3.2
3.5
10.1
2.7
1.4

Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Democratic Republic
Cote d'Ivoire
Dem Rep of the Congo
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritius
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Reunion
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe

Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low

73,618
2,391
340
1,421
398
71
1,425
373
76
615
75
504
1,745
528
1,112
1,457
132
1,641
298
2,443
223
534
232
626
2,506
1,004
250
8,469
3,962
191
24
1,023
510
83
30,332
2,396
340
1,858
208
840
620
342

7.9
13.5
4.1
12.8
6.8
8.3
7.6
5.8
6.7
10.3
8.0
4.2
5.1
6.8
4.8
5.2
9.3
10.9
7.8
9.7
3.2
11.2
9.4
7.3
12.7
8.2
4.6
8.7
1.8
12.5
-6.2
5.6
14.0
6.4
7.1
7.9
3.9
11.5
6.8
9.1
1.3
-3.2

1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

3.3
3.3
2.3
4.8
2.1
2.7
1.8
11.1
1.6
1.5
4.1
1.2
1.8
1.2
4.7
3.3
12.3
5.4
3.2
5.3
2.6
3.0
3.7
3.5
14.5
5.6
1.7
1.5
1.8
3.3
14.4
3.5
33.0
2.9
3.9
1.1
2.4
4.3
1.8
4.6
1.9
1.4

8.8
27.7
5.1
10.3
4.7
4.9
5.0
19.2
3.0
9.1
10.6
7.9
4.5
3.0
9.5
12.7
23.2
10.8
5.8
12.2
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.2
31.6
11.2
4.3
7.7
5.8
6.5
25.4
8.0
60.2
5.7
9.0
8.7
6.6
9.7
4.7
9.2
4.5
3.3

3,877
85
32
20
41
33
61
11
9
21
6
8
67
128
664
15
62
230
54
235
9
88
67
87
85
34
14
409
7
48
5
72
16
24
522
59
3
293
10
206
24
13

2
3
2
7
2
2
2
10
1
1
3
1
1
1
4
4
10
4
3
4
2
2
3
3
17
6
1
1
3
3
11
3
44
2
4
1
3
3
1
4
2
1

10,647
758
70
39
94
61
166
19
18
135
15
51
173
312
1,349
48
119
465
100
548
27
222
133
185
171
65
36
2,108
18
96
9
165
27
47
1,100
485
7
673
27
420
55
30

6.8
22.7
4.1
12.7
3.7
3.8
4.2
17.5
2.4
7.4
8.6
6.7
3.8
2.3
7.3
12.7
18.6
8.7
4.8
9.9
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.7
33.9
11.3
3.5
6.4
6.5
5.2
20.2
6.6
76.7
4.5
8.3
7.2
6.9
7.7
3.8
7.3
3.7
2.9

11.9
8.6
6.6
6.8
7.6
8.7
7.3
4.7
6.8
10.9
29.7
7.2
6.7
5.1
8.8
10.1
16.6
8.9
5.6
23.3
11.4
11.6
5.5
8.0
25.8
8.1
9.1
2.4
11.3
6.2
4.7
11.2
12.5
3.4
14.1
40.3
12.8
13.0
10.2
7.2
11.4
8.4

5.8
8.2
6.2
5.2
5.3
0.9
4.5
11.1
5.0
11.0
6.2
6.2
5.4
5.5
2.9
3.5
4.7
4.9
4.0
5.6
3.3
7.1
4.1
2.3
6.5
3.7
5.7
6.1
3.3
5.0
-10.1
4.3
1.9
19.5
5.2
6.3
1.3
9.3
4.8
5.3
5.3
-2.6

7.9
0.5
9.1
13.4
13.2
2.6
3.2
48.8
2.6
3.0
17.9
0.9
1.8
0.2
22.5
5.2
30.6
17.3
5.5
19.8
6.8
13.4
9.6
15.7
32.9
18.9
7.8
1.2
3.0
30.6
52.0
16.2
47.4
20.2
11.0
2.5
2.9
33.0
3.6
23.4
9.0
3.6

11.0
18.4
3.0
17.1
1.7
-3.9
0.0
1.9
-8.5
4.9
9.6
0.4
8.7
15.0
-2.3
6.3
10.1
16.0
15.9
17.4
11.3
14.7
13.9
6.4
16.8
11.9
-5.8
12.0
10.3
20.6
-6.7
8.5
18.6
1.7
11.8
2.9
7.8
12.4
8.9
8.5
1.5
-16.4

5.8
6.6
3.2
10.3
3.1
5.6
4.4
12.8
2.2
5.9
7.5
4.8
7.0
3.2
4.8
15.5
6.4
6.1
4.0
5.4
3.5
3.9
3.8
5.5
8.8
5.2
3.1
5.1
9.3
4.3
5.9
3.4
16.3
3.0
6.3
1.8
6.3
5.8
4.2
5.1
4.6
3.3

1.5
1.1
3.0
2.3
1.9
0.7
1.7
6.2
1.6
3.8
6.1
2.5
1.4
0.8
2.3
3.8
9.3
3.2
2.9
6.9
1.2
5.4
1.3
1.7
15.8
3.7
1.8
0.3
2.9
1.6
2.4
3.7
22.1
2.3
0.5
1.2
3.0
5.5
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.3

High
High confidence in data sources.
Moderate Countries with moderate confidence in data sources.
Low
Countries with forecast subjust to high uncertainty and/or with limited access to data.

38

OXFORD ECONOMIC
FORECASTING
ASSISTING WTTC PROVIDE TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS,
BENCHMARKING, FORECASTING AND PLANNING

An elite provider of economic analysis, forecasting and modelling, OEF possesses the skills and experience to assist you get to
grips with the drivers of your business. Projects undertaken in recent years in tourism related fields include:

Detailed country and regional appraisals of the impact of tourism on the economy
Preparation of scenarios to assess the potential impact of outside events, such as War in Iraq, on tourism flows and spending
Development of a forecasting framework for a hotel chain to analyse and predict occupancy rates and revenue across their
properties

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WTTC would like to express its sincere appreciation to the entire research and economics team
associated with this 2005 Tourism Satellite Accounting Research
Oxford Economic Forecasting

Adrian Cooper, Managing Director


Alan Wilson, Director of Consulting Services
Keith Edmonds, Senior Economist
Pablo Astorga, Senior Economist
The OEF Macroeconomic Forecasting and Technical Teams
World Travel & Tourism Council

Richard Miller, Executive Vice President