Scout 48 - No More Bull zone

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Bull Free Zone
Scout 48

Scout 48 - No More Bull zone

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I’ve been told…
• And learnt that empirical results are far better than anecdotal finger pointing. • So here are some empirical results of how certain agencies are attempting to mislead and confuse the public. • As to why, I shall leave that up to the individual to develop his/her own conspiracy theories. • Common sense tells me that it could be a series of unfortunate equipment failures. It’s been suggested to me that persons in charge of running this equipment may be grad students who are spending more time mulling [any mulling you like] than managing the data. • My version is simple. By introducing an element of doubt… in the casual observer, agencies are making their data worthless to the public who will give up looking believing that nothing is happening.

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Re-capping
• The Magnetosphere is stuffed. • CME’s and solar flares are reaching earth. • Down to sea level.

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We all know that America doesn’t get any solar flares or CME’s.
[Go Sub Sarcasm] Printf ‘Those nasties are reserved for everyone else on the planet.’ [End Go Sub] Unfortunately, removing or downgrading earthquakes by the USGS is not quite the same as altering or removing CME arrival data. Or is it. Are we being kept dumb to keep the herd from stampeding ?

No CME

No CME

No CME

No CME

No CME

No CME

No CME

No CME

No CME

No CME

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We Only have one thing to say…

No CME No CME No CME No CME No CME No CME No CME No CME No CME No CME

Scout 48 - No More Bull zone

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Ladies… Please close your eyes…

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The … No bull section…

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In case I’m Wrong…
• This DRAP capture I took a minute ago must be a picture of a kid making atomic reactors in his garden shed with the Americum leaking all over the “D” band…

• Or – someone spilt blue ink on my monitor.

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The DRAP*…

• On the 27th of June, an interesting message registered on the DRAP page… • Did it mean that the rest of the time we were being flooded with X-rays from space ?
*D-Region Absorption Prediction We covered this in an earlier scout (7). The D layer is one of the layers of our ionosphere which permits some radio waves through but bounces others. X-Rays are radio waves.

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Historically…

• The Strongest flare from the sun to hit earth in the last 13 years was an X28 on November the 4th 2003.

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At it’s peak it looked like this…
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/iono/drap/images/2003_Nov_04_X28/2003_Nov_04_X28.html

Of Course, back then we still had a functioning magnetosphere….

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Yesterday – even with all the cme stuff arriving – it looked like this…

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DRAP versus TEC

http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov/latest_rti_global.html

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/global.html

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Lots of high Energy active electrons

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Lmsal agrees – it is on the way up…
• Energy on the way up (>1 MeV) • KP between 3 and 5 • Magnetometer moving towards a spear crossover point • Solar wind on the rise…

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Geeks Only – skip Unless You love high eV spectroscopy

An interesting paper from scientia
describes the method of recording and analysing electrons using a nextgen spectroscope, the ARTOF 10K. The device is designed to measure the kinetic enegry of low (<10ev electrons) Brochure at: http://pdf.directindustry.com/pdf/vg-scienta/electron-spectrometer-artof-10k/56995-93859.html

The energy shift is due to the positive plasma potential in the gas cell. As seen in the figure the shift decreases when the electron flux is reduced in the gas cell.

http://www.vgscienta.jp/pdf/ARTOF_update_September_2008.pdf

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That paper tells us that this…

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Should have looked like this …

But didn’t.

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This is NoAA’s official list of events this year:

CME Landed on earth • •

CME left Sun

Yep, that was it – all three. (We had more than that at the end of June… and on January the 5th and the 7th and the eleventh and the 27th… It seems as if the NOAA grad students are not very good at counting…

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So What I’m saying is…
• We can no longer depend on straight shooting from agencies about space weather. • We all need to work out other means of obtaining data. • (I suggest foreign universities – especially if you speak a foreign language. Try not to publish the urls of university data.) • People that know me personally can contact me for additional not to be ever published source information.

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In yesterdays CME report…
• We presented some slides from the NASA model of the event. • For reasons that will become self evident in a few minutes, we should like to present those slides individually. (For Clarity and for old fogey's like me that like BIG writing.)

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12/13th of July, 2013, CME with a Bang.

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12/13th of July, 2013, CME with a Bang.

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12/13th of July, 2013, CME with a Bang.

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12/13th of July, 2013, CME with a Bang.

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Today they replaced that series of slides with alternatives (two of them at different times of the day.)

Why ? …and which one do we believe ? The first one where the event is just starting ? The second one where it’s finished ? Or do we believe yesterdays version ?

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All Three NASA images…

iS_WA

• Here are all three Solutions for 06:00 UTC on the 13th of July. • It would appear that empirical accurate repeatable and constant data is no longer a pre-requisite for science (as far as NASA is concerned.
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

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The NOAA Version ?

Yet another timeslot….

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I have tried to Rationalise
• What I found. • Unfortunately – Because they repeated yesterdays video again today (late) but with 13/07/13 06:00 hours missing. There is only one possible answer. • That is – they wish to divide and conquer. To present mis-information to at least 2 thirds of the viewing public.

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Now – Our Job is…
• To see through their shenanigans and attempt to ascertain the truth. Let us summarise what we know so far: • DRAP is broken and doesn’t tally with Total Electrons. (TEC). • NOAA and NASA have different arrival times and strengths of the event. • At times like this – we have no choice but to turn to that most useful of economists tools…

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The ”guess”
• They hid 11 hours of data with no update. • Actually worse… they removed the 0600 entry from the current video. • I’m gonna pluck and say that is when the peak of the event will occur.

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In closing all I can say is…
It’s coming. Perhaps not today, or even tomorrow… but it is coming…. OK, possibly tomorrow. With the way I’ve been feeling it all night, it must be close. Water, Toilet paper, Rice… yadda yadda…

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The Event slides…
• We start on the 9th. Mainly to establish the normal pattern so that when there is an anomaly you will recognise it. • The slides are at six hour intervals (mostly). Watch the date stamp in the top left hand corner.

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• The missing time Slot – 6:00 am UTS 13th of July, 2013. right when we are in the middle of the split…

This is from my capture two days ago… before the file was edited.

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In closing….
That X22 flare ?

• These days is equalled in effect by a small by a small M 1.1 flare.

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Good luck folks. • Hats on.. If out in the sun and when you hear the electrical appliances make funny noises. Like – decreasing fan speed on a pedestal fan.

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