Food Global Market FAO Report 2013 | Wheat | Rice

ISSN 1560-8182

Food Outlook
BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS

June 2013

he FAO Food Outlook Team is pleased to present this new edition of Food Outlook which incorporates many improvements, including extended coverage and a revised layout. The new edition takes account of feedback received through a recent readership survey while also taking into consideration advances in digital publishing, which is envisaged to become the main means of disseminating Food Outlook reports in the near future. First published in November 1974, in the wake of the major world food crisis, Food Outlook is a product of FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS). Food Outlook was initially a quarterly report, before becoming monthly and then biannually since 2006. Given the fast changing global food markets, the main focus of Food Outlook reports has always been on providing timely information and forecasts with accurate early warnings and in-depth assessments. Food Outlook is produced in English but the Market Summaries of the report are also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish. Suggestions and comments about the new edition are welcome as your feedback will help improve future reports.

T

Food Outlook Team GIEWS1@fao.org

www.fao.org

HIGHLIGHTS
ood commodity markets are set to be more balanced in 2013/14, in particular cereals. The global food import bill is forecast to reach USD 1.09 trillion in 2013, 13 percent below the record of 2011 but close to the 2012 estimate, as higher bills for fish and livestock products are anticipated to offset lower expenditures on most other commodities, especially sugar.

F

WHEAT
Record world wheat production in 2013 will boost supplies and help increase inventories. With world trade contracting in 2013/14 on lower import demand by several countries, due to their higher domestic production, global wheat markets are likely to experience more stable conditions under generally lower prices.

COARSE GRAINS
World production of coarse grains is set to rebound strongly in 2013. While the overall utilization is also projected to increase, total supply would exceed demand, helping in replenishing the heavily depleted stocks and resulting in a more comfortable world supply and demand balance than witnessed in recent years.

RICE
International rice prices were generally stable in the first five months of 2013. The market attention is now focusing on future decisions regarding releases from public stocks in Thailand and on India’s availabilities for export. The pace of China’s imports is also becoming critical.

OILSEEDS
Expectations of a marked rebound in global oilseed output for 2012/13, combined with a slowing consumption growth, have led to a softening in world prices. Positive early production forecasts for 2013/14 suggest a more balanced world supply and demand situation and thus a general easing of prices.

SUGAR
World sugar production is estimated to reach a new record in 2012/13 – one that will be more than sufficient to cover projected global consumption. On the other hand, world sugar trade is anticipated to contract reflecting expectations of falling import demand from the traditional importing countries.

MEAT
World meat production is anticipated to grow by only 1.4 percent in 2013, to 308.2 million tonnes. Meat prices remain at historically high levels which, as of May, have not shown signs of decreasing in spite of reduced feed costs.

DAIRY
International prices of dairy products have risen in the face of limited export supplies. Milk production continues to increase steadily in 2013 in many countries, especially in Asia, but growth in the main exporting countries is anticipated to be limited.

FISHERIES
Tight supply and higher feed costs for several key traded species such as salmon and shrimp are pushing international seafood prices higher. Overall supply is still growing thanks to aquaculture, with strong local and regional demand sustaining production growth in the developing countries.

SPECIAL FEATURES
Quinoa
The special feature on Quinoa examines the fundamentals of this ancient Andean commodity with the potential for becoming a new important food crop. The growing global demand and booming exports from Bolivia and Peru have benefitted the smallholder producers, but also pose new challenges as market dynamics change.

Commodity Hedge Funds in Retreat?
The special feature “Commodity hedge funds in retreat?”, examines the declining performance of this sector following multiple years of profitability. It reviews the factors that helped propel the growth of commodity hedge funds against those surrounding today’s trading environment.

The report benefited from research support by many staff. territory. provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views.org/contact-us/licencerequest or addressed to copyright@fao.org/ publications) and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country.fao. Patrizia Mascianá. or for use in non-commercial products or services. and Abdolreza Abbassian. Senior Economist. Special thanks go to Rita Ashton for compiling the report and overall administrative support. Barbara Senfter and the fisheries statistical team. All requests for translation and adaptation rights. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www. whose names and email contacts appear under their respective market summary contributions. The report is prepared under the overall guidance of David Hallam. Principal Officer. Fiorella Picchioni. Senior Economist and Food Outlook Team Leader. material may be copied. Additionally. does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. for preparing the charts and statistical tables. as well as to Claudio Cerquiglini. Julie Claro. Claudio Cerquiglini. Director. Except where otherwise indicated. namely.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T he Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Trade and Markets Division. and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www. downloaded and printed for private study. Boubaker BenBelhassen.org . whether or not these have been patented. reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. David Bedford. the team is grateful to Nancy Hart for her editorial assistance. products or services is not implied in any way. It is written by a team of economists. ISSN: 0251-1959 (print) © FAO 2013 FAO encourages the use.fao. research and teaching purposes. Concepcion Calpe. city or area or of its authorities.org. Marco Milo. Grace Karumathy. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers. David Mancini. Berardina Forzinetti.

CONTENTS 58 MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 70-87 71 74 79 84 85 87 88-123 124-133 125 127 128 129 132 Grains Rice Oilseeds Sugar Meat Dairy STATISTICAL TABLES 2013 1-9 10-57 11 16 22 29 37 42 47 52 58-69 59 66 International year of Quinoa MARKET INDICATORS Investment flows MARKET SUMMARIES Ocean freight rates Food import bills The FAO price indices Other market indicators MARKET ASSESSMENTS Wheat Coarse grains Rice Oilseeds. oils and meals Sugar Meat and meat products Milk and milk products Fish and fishery products SPECIAL FEATURES 129 2002-2004=100 350 Sugar 300 Dairy 250 Oils & Fats Cereals 200 Quinoa Commodity hedge funds in retreat 150 M J J A S O N D J F Meat M A M 2012 2013 .

M SU AR MM KE T A M RIE SU AR MM KE S T AR IES .

Based on current supply and demand prospects.Racionzer@fao.7 795. similar to 2012/13. After a relatively tight situation in 2012/13.5 percent from the previous year’s reduced level.1 568. characterized by reduced grain supplies and high prices. world cereal inventories could register an 11 percent recovery to 569 million tonnes. The projected recovery in world inventories would lead to higher 2014 stock-to-use ratios.9 833.5 455.9 0. especially for maize.2 2 402. is forecast to reach a record 2 460 million tonnes.5 2 309.org Paul.3 1 066.Abbassian@fao. with coarse grains increasing the most.3 Total utilization Food Feed Other uses Ending stocks SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC3 (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio (%) FAO CEREAL PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 152. a factor that would keep average per capita consumption of cereals stable at around 153 kg per year.3 16.0 510. The increase in utilization of wheat and rice would be broadly in line with the population growth.5 306. UTILIZATION AND STOCKS Million tonnes 2600 Million tonnes 800 2300 600 2000 400 1700 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 f’cast 200 Production (left axis) Stocks (right axis) Utilization (left axis) WORLD CEREAL MARKET AT A GLANCE 1 2011/12 2012/13 estim.0 152.CEREALS Latest indications point to a more comfortable world cereal supply-and-demand balance in the new 2013/14 marketing season.5 22. A reduction in wheat trade is expected to offset a rebound in maize while rice trade in 2014 is forecast to change little.4 794. including rice on a milled basis. Market summaries CEREAL PRODUCTION. The buildup of stocks is forecast to affect all the major cereals.2 2011 2012 2013 Jan-May Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % Contact: 1 247 241 242 8.3 153. Global cereal utilization is forecast to reach 2 402 million tonnes in 2013/14. by the end of seasons in 2014.5 159.5 0.0 Abdolreza.5 1. Low-income Food-Deficit countries.3 18.0 1 097. the highest level in twelve years.2 317.7 3. This is up 6.1 157. 1 . although concerns over diminishing prices may dampen growth.0 2.7 521.9 1.9 23.2 2 328. mainly due to higher wheat output and a sharp expected rebound of maize production in the United States. Rice production is also set to increase in 2013. World cereal production in 2013. World trade in cereals is forecast to reach 306 million tonnes in 2013/14. 3 percent above 2012/13. Trade refers to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat and coarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice.2 1 082.1 467.org 2 3 Rice in milled equivalent. Much of the growth would stem from higher use of maize for feed and industrial purposes in the United States.0 21.1 2 333.8 6. 2013/14 f’cast Change: 2013/14 over 2012/13 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Trade 2 % 2 354.9 2 460.3 160.0 471. Total feed use of coarse grains is forecast to be greater in developing than developed countries for the second consecutive season.8 306.4 18. good production prospects and a likely replenishment in world stocks could pave the way for calmer markets and some easing of prices in the new season.4 4.5 11.

6 132.5 1. Based on this preliminary supply and demand assessment for 2013/14 and barring any major unexpected developments.7 23.8 26.3 Abdolreza. to a new record level of 702 million tonnes. Derived from the International Grains Council (IGC) wheat index. 2013/14 f’cast Change: 2013/14 over 2012/13 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Trade1 Total utilization Food Feed Other uses Ending stocks 701.5 686. UTILIZATION AND STOCKS Million tonnes 720 Million tonnes 260 670 220 620 180 570 140 520 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 f’cast 100 Production (left axis) Stocks (right axis) Utilization (left axis) WORLD WHEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE 2011/12 2012/13 estim.2 0.7 14. especially with regard to production.0 693. EU. is likely to remain close to the 2012/13 level. global markets are likely to face more stable conditions. such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine.8 480. in particular in Europe and the Black Sea region.1 1.7 173.Racionzer@fao.3 5.2 67.8 697.5 146. which is heading towards another record crop.4 24.5 -2.June 2 2013 013 WHEAT FAO’s latest wheat production forecast for 2013 has been raised by 7 million tonnes since May. the increase would only concern wheat consumption as food. which rose sharply in 2011/12 as a result of very tight supplies and high prices of coarse grains.1 659.9 47.2 474. given the current expectations regarding global utilization in 2013/14. Ukraine and the United States.Abbassian@fao.7 79.4 183.3 133.5 2011 2012 2013 Jan-May Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % Contact: 1 222 2 210 212 10. Major exporters include Argentina.5 percent higher than the reduced harvest in 2012. Canada. WHEAT PRODUCTION.1 % 6. world production of wheat would be 6.1 48.org 3 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season. which include some traditional exporting countries. with prices retreating from the highs seen during the 2012/13 marketing season.6 1.Food F ood Outlook .1 139. Kazakhstan.9 78. The anticipated higher production is a welcome development.4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio2 (%) FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX3 (2002-2004=100) 67.2 702. The largest increases in world inventories are forecast for China.0 136. This contraction mainly reflects reduced imports by countries expecting improved supplies in 2013/14. FAO’s first forecast for world wheat trade in 2013/14 points to a reduction of 2.5 15. Although total wheat utilization is forecast to resume its growth after a decline in 2012/13. FAO’s first forecast for global stocks at the end of the seasons in 2014 points to a strong rebound from the reduced opening levels which. 2 . The bulk of the recovery is forecast to be concentrated in some of the major producing countries that harvested poor crops in 2012.5 79. since feed utilization.5 percent from 2012/13.7 164.2 146. At this level.3 1.7 18.4 66.org Paul. Russian Fed.2 47. especially as the 2012/13 run-down took global inventories to their lowest level since 2009.2 471.. Australia. would result in a higher world stock-to-use ratio. and for the EU and the Russian Federation.5 0.

The recovery in the United States is also seen as the main driver behind renewed growth in the industrial use of coarse grains in 2013/14 after a decline in the 2012/13 season.5 3.9 40. Russian Fed.0 1 216.5 131. Against the background of rising export availabilities and increased world demand. most notably China. Canada. world production of coarse grains is forecast to reach a record in 2013 on the back of a strong rebound in maize production in the United States from its 2012 drought-reduced level.7 0.2 649.4 14. A number of other major producers are also expected to harvest bigger crops this year.0 1 259. hence. UTILIZATION AND STOCKS Million tonnes 1300 Million tonnes 300 1200 250 1100 200 1000 150 900 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 f’cast 100 Production (left axis) Stocks (right axis) Utilization (left axis) WORLD COARSE GRAIN MARKET AT A GLANCE 2011/12 2012/13 estim.1 12.4 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.1 10.0 1 168. Ukraine and the United States. in both developed and developing countries.org Paul.7 199. result in a rise of the world stock-to-use ratio from the historic low of 14. Again. world trade in 2013/14 is forecast to expand by 3 percent.6 39. Major exporters include Argentina.Racionzer@fao.7 1 160. In addition.. supported by more ample supplies and the likelihood of lower prices. where maize production could hit a record for the fourth consecutive season.7 17.6 205.8 23.1 4.3 28.9 208.3 133.2 314.0 29.2 8.7 2011 2012 2013 Jan-May Contact: Abdolreza.1 percent in 2013/14.6 2.5 0. would lead to a rebuilding in global inventories to their highest level since 2000.Abbassian@fao.7 % 8.8 1 161.8 634. 3 . 2013/14 f’cast Change: 2013/14 over 2012/13 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Trade1 Total utilization Food Feed Other uses Ending stocks 1 167.1 40. Market summaries COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION.7 129. EU. Australia.COARSE GRAINS At 1 259 million tonnes.org 1 2 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 277 283 283 8. The recovery is expected to be pronounced and.6 323.7 327.5 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio2 (%) FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 28. with maize exports reaching 103 million tonnes.2 685. The projected recovery in world production of coarse grains in general.1 176. the bulk of this anticipated improvement in global supply and demand balance in 2013/14 assumes current positive production prospects for maize in the Unites States materialize. a new record.5 5. Brazil. feed utilization is projected to exhibit a strong increase in 2013/14. and of maize in particular.0 213.2 173.2 percent in 2012/13 to 17.1 1.5 15.

9 35. the Philippines and Thailand are behind the expected decline in trade.9 7.9 -2. reaching close to 500 million tonnes (in milled rice equivalent). especially in Latin America and the Caribbean. but still averaged higher in the first five months than in the corresponding period in 2012. 500 Million tonnes.4 402.Calpe@fao.9 percent in 2013. Pakistan.8 0. 200 450 150 400 100 350 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 f’cast 50 Production (left axis) Stocks (right axis) Utilization (left axis) WORLD RICE MARKET AT A GLANCE 2010/11 2011/12 estim. 2012/13 f’cast Change: 2012/13 over 2011/12 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Trade 1 % 469. the United States and Viet Nam.2 33.4 387.9 1. 4 . Much of India’s export shortfall is anticipated to be filled by Viet Nam.6 1. India is anticipated to cut shipments most.3 26.4 70. UTILIZATION AND STOCKS Million tonnes. Weakening import demand is behind expectations of a 2. Major exporters include India.6 478.7 0.org 1 2 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 251 240 241 2.8 25. China’s imports. Pakistan. Among exporters. RICE PRODUCTION. but also by Egypt.org Shirley.5 395.Mustafa@fao. North America and the EU. are anticipated to remain close to the highs witnessed last year.4 161.9 173. Low returns are encouraging farmers to cut plantings.1 69. reflecting a wide differential between domestic and international prices.0 21. On the import side.2 460.Food F ood Outlook . Thailand.9 37.9 145.1 56.3 38. However. thus falling well short of the 2011 record performance.7 1. World rice production is forecast to expand by 1. Myanmar and the United States. Nigeria.8 percent contraction in international rice trade in 2013.June 2 2013 013 RICE International rice prices have been stable since January. prices have followed different directions. milled eq.7 485.3 31. reduced purchases by Indonesia.8 70. depending on the type of rice and its origin.6 469. on expectations of improved weather conditions in Asia.0 2011 2012 2013 Jan-May Contact: Concepcion.7 489.4 Total utilization Food Ending stocks SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio2 (%) FAO RICE PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 56.3 Calendar year exports (second year shown). Thailand is anticipated to keep sales abroad at about the same level as last year. milled eq. on the other hand.2 56. a tendency likely to dampen production growth. but will nonetheless remain the leading rice exporter again this year.1 36.

4 208.2 183.Thoenes@fao. oils and meals have softened since the start of this season.5 180. End-of-season stocks of oilseeds and derived products are anticipated to increase.4 101.5 7.5 184.1 69.org Oilseeds Meals/cakes Oils/fats 211 212 252 224 245 225 217 265 202 NOTE: Refer to table 9 for explanations regarding definitions and coverage.3 2.7 11.3 131.1 468.5 17.5 188.6 7. international prices for oilseeds. Global supplies are expected to grow at a slower pace than production.3 2.0 134.1 72.7 97.9 72.7 220. in particular for meals.6 118. Oils/fats consumption could also be affected by weaker demand from the biodiesel sector.6 14.4 10.3 188. oil production growth is likely to remain below trend.9 453.3 214. As for meals.8 115.6 137.9 17. While current crop estimates should allow a conspicuous year-on-year rise in meal output. especially in meals/cakes. Nonetheless.9 15. thus suggesting a further general relaxation of prices. 5 . whereas persistently high meal prices are expected to result in an unusual contraction in global meal/cake utilization.0 17. both in absolute terms and relative to consumption.3 110.0 Contact: Peter.5 114. Market summaries FAO MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICE INDICES FOR OILSEEDS. stock-to-use ratios are likely to remain low compared to previous years. the production gains anticipated for next season should permit global stocks levels and stock-to-use ratios to rise further in 2013/14. International trade in oilseeds and sub-products is forecast to decline.7 9.0 2. whose values remained close to all-time highs reflecting the market’s concerns about persistent supply tightness during the first half of the season.5 -1. The decrease has been less marked for meals.0 5.OILSEEDS Even if crops suffered from unfavourable weather in several countries.1 million tonnes TOTAL OILSEEDS Production OILS AND FATS Production Supply Utilization Trade Stock-to-utilization ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio MEALS AND CAKES Production Supply Utilization Trade Stock-to-utilization ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio FAO PRICE INDICES (Jan/Dec) (2002-2004=100) 118.7 2. mirroring weak growth in domestic consumption in some of the worlds major importing countries.1 10.0 92.9 2. due to low stock levels at the beginning of the season.0 3. 2012/13 f’cast Change: 2012/13 over 2011/12 % 477.4 5. Combined with continued weak consumption growth. near-record prices have lowered appetite for imported material. especially in the meals/cakes subsector.4 2011 2012 2013 Jan-May Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 4. In general. a marked rebound in global oilseed output is forecast for 2012/13. amid improved production prospects and weak consumption growth.6 117. prices in the oilseed complex could ease further as South America’s record harvests enter the market and provided the positive forecasts for next season’s Northern Hemisphere crops are confirmed. During the second half. OILS/FATS AND MEALS/CAKES (2002-2004=100) 300 Meals/cakes Oils/fats 250 200 150 100 Oilseeds 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 WORLD OILSEED AND PRODUCT MARKET AT A GLANCE 2010/11 2011/12 estim. Subdued global economic growth is likely to slow demand for oils and meals in 2012/13.0 176.1 0.7 -16.6 18.

5 18.8 159.2 52. with the surplus expected to hover around 6. The expansions in Brazil.36 2011 24.9 175.13 15.62 2. but also in the United States.org Change: Jan-Apr 2013 over Jan-Apr 2012 % 26. the world’s largest producer. World sugar consumption is forecast to grow by about 2 percent in 2012/13. World sugar trade is anticipated to contract in 2012/13. or 2.8 percent.4 % 2.80 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) ISA DAILY PRICE AVERAGE (US cents/lb) 23.1 173.03 1.June 2 2013 013 SUGAR World sugar production in 2012/13 is set to increase by 4.55 16.6 54.62 2012 24. are anticipated to offset declines in India.Amrouk@fao. INTERNATIONAL SUGAR PRICES* * As measured by the International Sugar Agreement (ISA) WORLD SUGAR MARKET AT A GLANCE 2010/11 2011/12 estim.5 169. amid falling domestic sugar prices. where sugar production is set to recover from the sharp fall of the previous season. reflecting expectations of lukewarm import demand from the traditional importing countries. the EU and Thailand.87 39. contributing to a rebuilding of sugar stocks to relatively comfortable levels.19 39. For the second consecutive season.5 69.8 65. which are holding large supplies. 2012/13 f’cast Change: 2012/13 over 2011/12 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Trade Total utilization Ending stocks 165.64 38.18 5. to 180 million tonnes. production is anticipated to surpass consumption.35 Contact: Elmamoun. The growth in world output is mainly attributed to an upturn in Brazil.30 16.0 51.8 62.Food F ood Outlook .0 21.6 180.75 -2.41 6 .99 2013 Jan-Apr 1. Australia and China.5 million tonnes.35 -22.8 million tonnes.

2 0.7 32.5 -4.4 114.4 percent compared to 2012.2 8.5 29.8 1.4 0.0 79.2 13.1 percent over 2012.1 5. Meat production is anticipated to grow most vigorously in the developing countries. as a result of adequate national supplies in a number of importing countries and a reduction in production among some of the major exporters.3 7.3 2013 Jan-May 0. an increase of 1.9 7 .3 0. when it is forecast to reach 308. This has offered greater scope for profitable meat production.5 1. however.1 2012 43.1 4. 2013 f’cast Change: 2013 over 2012 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Bovine meat Poultry meat Pigmeat Ovine meat Trade Bovine meat Poultry meat Pigmeat Ovine meat 297. an increase of 4.7 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % Contact: Michael.2 68. Export reference prices for the different types of meat have followed varying directions so far this year.6 13.9 8. Global meat exports are anticipated to reach 30.3 million tonnes or 1.1 109. particularly in the pig and poultry sectors.2 13. remaining largely stable for beef and falling for ovine meat.1 79. they began to fall during the second half of 2012 and continued to diminish during 2013.6 29.2 million tonnes in 2013. producers continue to struggle against elevated feed prices.8 7.3 102.9 1.8 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) Developed (kg/yr) Developing (kg/yr) FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 42.5 2011 43.Griffin@fao.7 303.8 308.1 106. rising marginally for poultry and pork.5 0.2 8.6 112.0 13.2 million tonnes. which are the most dependent on concentrated feed.1 12.MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS World meat production is anticipated to grow modestly in 2013. Market summaries FAO INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICE INDICES (2002-2004 = 100) 220 190 Poultry 160 Bovine Pigmeat 130 Total meat 100 Ovine 70 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 WORLD MEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE 2011 2012 estim.1 7. having moved within the narrow band of 177–179 since October 2012. Meat prices have remained at historically high levels since the early part of 2011.4 0. Meat trade is expected to grow more slowly in 2013 than in recent years.2 1. In many countries. which are the main centres of demand expansion.8 30.9 67.6 67. although remaining high by historical standards.org 177 175 179 0.6 104.5 78.9 % 1.5 13. The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 179 in May 2013.6 1.3 33.3 0.1 33.

to reach 54. trade is forecast to increase by 1. Although prices fell back in May.org 221 189 227 17.Griffin@fao.7 235. they remained at elevated levels.5 49.1 7.2 1.3 72. indicating that the current elevated prices are likely to remain for some months. supply limitations are anticipated to stem growth.4 53.0 2013 Jan-May 1. accounting for some 54 percent of world imports.9 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) Developed (kg/yr) Developing (kg/yr) Trade share of prod.June 2 2013 013 MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS International dairy products prices registered strong growth during the first four months of 2013. FAO INTERNATIONAL DAIRY PRICE INDEX (2002-2004 = 100) 350 250 150 50 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 The index is derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally traded dairy products. Consequently.7 % 2.7 784.0 75. with only limited growth elsewhere.7 238. The main cause of the leap in prices was a steep fall-off in New Zealand’s milk production. Asia will remain the main market for dairy products. World milk production in 2013 is forecast to grow by 2. before dropping to 250 points in May.7 2011 107.4 -0.Food F ood Outlook . particularly in March and April. close to its historic peak in late 2007.4 54. The absence of substantial growth in milk output in the principal exporting countries implies that supplies to the international market will be finely balanced until at least the latter part of 2013.1 0. WORLD DAIRY MARKET AT A GLANCE 1 2011 2012 estim.9 74.6 237.2 percent to 784 million tonnes – a similar rate to recent years.0 8 . however. 2013 f’cast Change: 2013 over 2012 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Total milk production Total trade 745.0 2012 108. The FAO Dairy Price Index reached 259 points in April. with 16 percent. Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to account for most of the increase. (%) FAO DAIRY PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 105. followed by Africa.9 7.1 2.1 6.7 767. World trade in dairy products is expected to expand in 2013.7 million tonnes of milk equivalent.3 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % Contact: Michael. substantially above a year earlier. compared with an average of 7 percent in recent years.9 percent.

have risen sharply. Some capture fisheries species.9 3.2 57.6 57.1 2. Fish for direct human consumption will also increase significantly during 2013 as a smaller share of captures is destined for fish meal production.6 2. World trade continues to grow.5 161.2 156.7 127.0 -7. On a per capita basis. including tuna.7 90.9 5.FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS Buoyant demand in developing countries has driven world aquaculture production to new heights. at the same time. supply constraints for several important species are likely to keep world fish prices on the rise.8 Jan-May 2.5 5.2 130. shrimp and selected bivalves. consumption has slackened in many traditional developed country markets. with aquaculture contributing close to half. Prices on a number of farmed species. thanks to strong demand from emerging markets. Market summaries FAO FISH PRICE INDEX (2002-2004 = 100) 180 155 130 105 80 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 FAO total fish price index Aquaculture Total Data source: Norwegian Seafood Council Capture total WORLD FISH MARKET AT A GLANCE 2011 2012 estim.2 66.9 9.7 9.9 0. Capture fisheries have registered a small rebound after the 2012 downturn related to the El Niño.2 93. In the coming months. due to supply problems and higher feed costs.9 9.4 0. topping 160 million tonnes for the first time.3 6. the Fish Price Index has risen to the record levels witnessed during the summer of 2011.Lem@fao.8 18.8 161. overall fish consumption is approaching 20 kg. 2013 f’cast Change: 2013 over 2012 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Capture fisheries Aquaculture Trade value (exports USD billion) Trade volume (live weight) Total utilization Food Feed Other uses SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: Food fish (kg/yr) From capture fisheries (kg/year) From aquaculture (kg/year) FAO FISH PRICE INDEX 1 (2002-2004=100) % 156.4 156.0 70.0 0.4 Change: Jan-May2013 over Jan-May2012 % 2013 Contact: Audun.7 15.2 91.3 18. global production is expected to reach another record level in 2013.5 62.8 57.2 9.5 128.7 Data source: Norwegian Seafood Council 9 .5 4.8 9.4 2012 19. As a result.2 131.5 1.7 5.2 140.7 135.0 2011 19.org 1 154 145 156 7.9 9.5 15. yet. have also registered sharp increases. with both volumes and values progressing in 2013. including salmon.7 2.0 156. As a result.

30 15 0 AS MA SE RK SS E T M EN AS MA TS SE RK SS ET ME NT S .

Although less than ideal weather conditions in Australia. continued to put pressure on prices.WHEAT Major Wheat Exporters and Importers Market M a rket assessments Major Exporters Major Importers PRICES Good crop prospects for 2013 put downward pressure on prices Compared with the first half of the current marketing season. No. favourable prospects for 2013 harvests. international wheat prices were generally weaker during its second half. Wheat futures also weakened during the second half of the season.W. Gulf) USD per tonne 400 Figure 2. parts of Europe and the United States were supportive. 2 H. Wheat export price (US No. However. f.b.2 Hard Red Winter. weakness in maize prices Figure 1. slower trade activity and large supplies of old crop (2012 production) in non-traditional exporting countries. A poor harvest in Argentina and concerns over winter wheat conditions in the United States plus a strong increase in the use of wheat for feed (as a result of the tightness in maize) provided some support. the US quotations were depressed by the continued slow pace of exports. such as in India. CBOT wheat futures for September USD per tonne 350 2012/13 2010/11 300 300 2011/12 250 200 2009/10 200 100 J A S O N D J F M A M J S O N D J F M A M 2012 values 2013 values 11 1 . which began in January 2013. some 5 percent below its level at the start of the year but still almost 18 percent higher than in May 2012. The benchmark United States wheat. Gulf. averaged USD 329 per tonne in May. especially in the Black Sea.o.

4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio2 (%) FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX3 (2002-2004=100) 67.3 133.4 45.9 47. Kazakhstan. Canada.0 8.5 27.4 -9.0 702. 2013 f”cast Change: 2013 over 2012 % million tonnes European Union China (Mainland) India United States Russian Federation Canada Australia Pakistan Turkey Ukraine Kazakhstan Iran Islamic Rep.0 55.9 78. Major exporters include Argentina. the major oilseed crop. In the Russian Federation. to 139 million tonnes.6 1.7 79.4 24. As a result. Wheat production: leading producers* 2012 estim.8 480.5 * Countries listed according to their position in global production (average 2011-2013) 12 .7 14. it likely precludes anything better than average yields in the affected areas. Although it is still too early to judge the impact of the adverse weather. Although winter wheat plantings for 2013 were estimated marginally up from last year.8 9. of Argentina Egypt Uzbekistan Other countries World 131.7 164.2 471.0 20. latest indications for wheat production in the United States confirm the possibility of a sharp decline in output this year. largely at the expense of canola.4 2011 66.2 702.8 697.0 693.8 6. In Canada.1 15. based on an official survey.3 2 3 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.Food F o od Outlook .1 48.4 183.0 121.0 20. are largely behind the expected growth. but also for several smaller wheat producing nations.6 132.1 24.2 22. reflecting the impact of drought.2 47. EU.1 1.7 18. Table 2.2 0.1 139.5 11.9 5. The upward adjustment in the past month largely reflects increased forecasts for the EU and China. In the EU.1 6.5 1. but ten percent higher than the corresponding period last year. in response to strong prices.June 2 2013 013 and the forecasts for a large increase in world wheat production in 2013.1 6.0 29.8 37. Derived from the International Grains Council (IGC) wheat index. Ukraine and the United States.3 5. with consequent delays in winter crop development and spring planting. winter wheat plantings WORLD BALANCE Production Trade1 Total utilization Food Feed Other uses Ending stocks 701.8 26. World wheat market at a glance 2011/12 2012/13 estim. the aggregate wheat area is estimated some 2 percent higher than last year and.5 percent up from last year’s reduced harvest.8 0. the country’s total wheat production in 2013 is forecast at 56 million tonnes.2 474. assuming yields are average.7 55.6 9. some 9 percent down from 2012.6 94. with yields also expected to be below average in areas where drought persists. but the slow pace of fieldwork as of late May raises some doubt over the final planted area.1 139.8 9. farmers’ intentions pointed to increased plantings.2 146. the 2013 spring growing period got off to a slow start in northern and central areas where temperatures have been below the long-term average.7 23. output is forecast to increase by about 6 percent. 6.4 6. the rate of abandonment is expected to be above normal. although a recovery of yields in some areas affected by drought last year is also contributing to the positive outlook.4 24.0 136.6 4.6 56.5 686. Russian Fed..5 659.1 22.0 9. Based on latest indications.8 43.5 -2. Regarding spring wheat.0 8.0 5.5 79. FAO’s forecast for global wheat production in 2013 has been raised to a new record level of 702 million tonnes. the area is expected to increase sharply by some 12 percent.5 15. down 11 percent from the beginning of 2013.3 120.2 14.7 60.0 26. In May 2013.2 2012 67. 2013/14 f’cast Change: 2013/14 over 2012/13 million tonnes % PRODUCTION Global wheat output could reach record high in 2013 Based on indications as of late May.5 2013 Jan-May 0.3 21. wheat futures in Chicago for September delivery averaged USD 260 per tonne.7 173. Increased plantings for the 2013 crop.3 1. In Europe. the main spring wheat crop planting was underway as of April and.9 1.5 146.1 8.2 6.5 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 222 1 210 212 10.1 659.8 13. Table 1. the harvested area of winter wheat is forecast to drop by about 4 percent compared with 2012. Australia. In North America.9 61.9 8.0 -1.8 93.7 27.1 14.

In Algeria and Tunisia. aggregate imports in 2013/14 are forecast at 63.2 million tonnes. above-normal temperatures and reduced precipitation in recent weeks have raised concern over yield prospects for winter crops and could impact spring sowing in these areas. At this stage. In China. In Brazil. or 7 percent. and spring planting is progressing well. Plantings are forecast at about 13 million hectares. In Pakistan. down from 4. By contrast. In the Southern Hemisphere. winter wheat sowing is underway in Australia. Kazakhstan is the major wheat producer and the bulk of its crop is spring sown from April to May. the country is estimated to import only 1. Wheat output in 2013 is forecast to recover from the previous year’s reduced level to 20 million tonnes.7 million tonnes in 2012/13. including high-quality seeds. where harvesting of the 2013 wheat crops in the Far East subregion is already underway or due to start soon. However.3 million tonnes. The spring wheat area is expected to increase in response to high price prospects but the prolonged winter weather in many parts could impact on the final area sown. which put the US prices below the domestic prices of China’s Juangsu red wheat. total imports in 2013/14 are projected to reach 10 million tonnes. Assuming normal weather conditions and a recovery in yields from last year. as of mid-May. weather conditions remain favourable for harvesting the 2013 winter wheat. suggest an increase of area from last year’s sharply reduced level to about 3.8 million tonnes registered in 2011/12. in spite of the projected record wheat crop this year. soil moisture was still lacking in many parts of the eastern grain belt. In Asia. In Argentina. outputs are forecast to be similar to last year’s satisfactory levels while. although down by 1. to some 14 million tonnes. In North Africa.8 million tonnes. to be planted from June. surpassing by 1 percent last year’s record. remaining still below average. a good harvest. after a reduction in the previous year due to adverse weather. early indications for the 2013 wheat crop. Most of this decline is expected in the Russian Federation where this year’s 13 3 . this would impact the final area sown. but a return to normal yields after last year’s reduced levels is expected to lift production back up. Without good rains in the coming weeks.5 million tonnes. Planted area is expected to increase only marginally. which had doubled imports in 2012/13 to replenish stocks. the official forecast for 2013 wheat production has been raised to 93. the latest official forecast points to a wheat crop of 121.4 million tonnes.5 million hectares. given the falling trend in domestic production associated with the gradual phasing out of subsidies to domestic producers.6 million tonnes. wheat production is set to recover sharply to 6. Feed wheat imports by the Republic of Korea are expected to decline by at least 400 000 tonnes as larger maize supplies in the new season may encourage a switch to maize instead. below the all-time high of 146. in Morocco. Smaller purchases are foreseen for the Islamic Republic of Iran. larger purchases are forecast for Saudi Arabia. In Egypt. down 1. Assuming average yields. In Asia. In India. output is officially forecast to increase by about 25 percent from last year’s poor level to 5. In Ukraine. In China. In Europe. slightly down from 2012. prospects are mostly good in the main producing countries following generally favourable weather. assuming conditions return to normal for the remainder of the season. it will be some 10 percent above the 2012 reduced harvest. a record 2013 harvest is expected – officially forecast at 26. this could lift output to 24 million tonnes. fertilizers and fuel. mostly due to higher domestic production. The anticipated decline in world trade is mainly attributable to projected lower import demand by several countries in Asia and Europe. down more than 2 million tonnes from the estimated imports in 2012/13.5 million tonnes in 2012/13.4 percent from last year’s high.5 million tonnes. In the Asian CIS subregion. the good outcome is attributable to subsidized inputs. Early indications point to about a 4 percent increase in plantings in response to attractive prices.5 million tonnes less than the latest estimate for 2012/13 and almost 11 million tonnes. the 2013 wheat crop is officially forecast at a record 9. the winter wheat conditions are also reported to be generally good. Apart from satisfactory weather. This came after a sharp price decline in international markets. aggregate wheat output is forecast to recover sharply from last year’s drought-reduced level to about 55 million tonnes. where planting of the 2013 crop was underway as of May.6 million tonnes from 2012/13.were down from the previous year due to dry weather but winter survival rates are estimated above normal after generally favourable winter conditions. China surprised the market in April when it purchased almost 1 million tonnes of soft red winter wheat from the United States. 3. In the main producing southern regions. production is tentatively forecast to increase to 11 million tonnes. while yields are seen to recover by almost 18 percent from the low levels of 2012. Market M a rket assessments TRADE Wheat trade to decline in 2013/14 for the second consecutive season FAO’s first forecast for world wheat trade in 2013/14 (July/June) is put at 136 million tonnes. imports of high quality wheat could increase by around 500 000 tonnes should prices remain favourable. As a result.

which had harvested a poor crop in 2012/13. shipments from India could remain at the same level as in 2012/13 (7 million tonnes). In Africa. in April the country suspended its 5 percent import duty on wheat until July 2013 to check rising domestic prices. wheat imports by the EU are expected to increase by 500 000 in the new season despite the projected increase in production. during which. Lower imports are also forecast for Algeria. Major wheat exporters Argentina 2012/13 estimate 2013/14 forecast Kazakhstan Ukraine Russian Federation EU 60 40 Australia Canada 20 United States 0 10 Million tonnes 20 30 0 Asia Africa South America Central America Europe 2012/13 estimate 2013/14 forecast anticipated recovery in production could result in a decline of 2 million tonnes in imports. in April. The sudden increase in the feed use of wheat in 2011/12 was driven by very tight supply and high prices of maize and barley.Food F o od Outlook . unchanged from the estimated purchases in the current season. 1 percent higher than 2012/13 but still about 1 percent below the 10-year trend. are forecast at 7. wheat purchases by Morocco are set to decrease by 900 000 tonnes because of the anticipated recovery in domestic production.5 million tonnes. Slightly higher exports are also forecast for Canada. While still a net exporter in the 2012/13 marketing season. Only Kenya may buy significantly more wheat in 2013/14. total imports in 2013/14 are forecast to change little with most countries keeping their imports at about 2012/13 levels. given the current prospects for a strong rebound in domestic production. Wheat imports by Ukraine. feed wheat use is not expected to increase as much as it did in 2011/12 largely because of the overall difficult macro-economic conditions. the world’s second largest wheat importer after Egypt. UTILIZATION Modest growth in world wheat utilization projected for 2013/14 Following a small decline in 2012/13. but sales from a number of other major exporters are expected to decline. in Egypt. and from the EU. aggregate wheat imports in 2013/14 could increase slightly from the current season’s reduced level. This was intended to facilitate imports from non-traditional suppliers so as to offset reduced exports from Argentina. in particular from Argentina. By contrast. Brazil doubled the nonMercosur import quota (to 2 million tonnes) and waived the 10 percent tariff until July 2013. they may increase to 9 million tonnes on growing demand. by at least 800 000 tonnes. Australia and the United States due to reduced crops. Most countries in the subSaharan region are forecast to import as much as in the current season. Wheat imports by region Million tonnes 80 Figure 4. the world’s largest wheat importer. In North Africa. the expected recovery in wheat production could boost shipments from the Russian Federation and Ukraine in the new season. 14 . Wheat imports by Brazil. Strong demand for feed lifted world wheat utilization to a record high of 697 million tonnes in 2011/12. due to rising demand. While supplies of coarse grains have been short again in 2012/13. In Latin America and the Caribbean. Regarding exports.June 2 2013 013 Figure 3. However. largely on assumption of rising competition with Black Sea-origin wheat and shrinking demand in world wheat markets in 2013/14. total wheat utilization in 2013/14 is forecast to increase to 694 million tonnes. Among the non-traditional exporters. and their prices also very high. Larger imports may be required by the UK. another net-exporting country. given the large surplus generated by consecutive years of bumper crops. where crops have been negatively affected by prolonged cold and wet weather conditions. are also forecast to decline sharply.

6 million tonnes). representing a 5 percent. the largest user of wheat for animal feed. the ratio of major wheat exporters’ closing stocks to their total disappearance (defined as domestic utilization plus exports) is set to increase from 14. Per capita wheat consumption is expected to remain at around 60 kg in the developing countries and at 96 kg in the developed countries.2 million tonnes). is anticipated to account for much of the world increase in wheat feed use in 2013/14.2 percent from 2012/13.9 percent registered in 2007/08. the EU (+3. more than offsetting possible declines in a few countries. Ukraine (-800 000 tonnes) and the United States (-1. 2013/14 f’cast 5 Major Exporters Rest of the World World Stock-to-use ratio Stock-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters STOCKS Higher production pushing up world inventories in 2013/14 Based on the latest production forecasts for 2013 and the projected utilization in 2013/14. world wheat consumption. Market M a rket assessments Figure 5. Contrary to the situation in 2012/13. up 1.600 000 tonnes). The bulk of this increase is projected for China (+3.2 percent in 2012/13 to 15. rebound from their opening levels.00 kg per annum. the EU.These very same conditions are expected to weigh on feed demand in 2013/14. This ratio would be 2. At this level. World utilization of wheat in 2013/14 for direct human consumption is expected to reach 480 million tonnes. 15 5 . provided the expected strong recovery in domestic maize supply in 2013/14 is confirmed. Total feed use in 2013/14 is projected at nearly 134 million tonnes. FAO’s first forecast for world wheat stocks by the close of crop seasons in 2014 stands at around 173 million tonnes. By contrast. well below the peak of 147 million tonnes registered in 2011/12 and up slightly from 2012/13. the world wheat stocksto-use ratio in 2013/14 would reach 24. up from 23.5 percent in 2012/13 and well above the historical low of 19.6 percent. most notably. would be steady at around 67. Furthermore. Wheat stocks and ratios Million tonnes 300 Percent 35 200 25 100 15 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 estim.4 million tonnes. or 8. At the current forecast levels.5 million tonnes) and the Russian Federation (+ 3.9 million tonnes). Given the importance of wheat as a food staple.5 percent in 2013/14.6 percentage points higher than in 2007/08 when international prices surged on growing supply concerns. feed use of wheat in the United States is forecast to decline sharply from the peak registered this season. on a per capita basis. Egypt (. the increase in these ratios is a positive development for global food security. inventories are again likely to be above normal levels given the consecutive years of bumper crops. In India.

while unfavourable conditions for spring plantings in Europe Figure 1. Barley prices. down 11 percent from the start of the season in July 2012 but still 10 percent above May last year. continued to underpin prices of major coarse grains throughout the 2012/13 season. in recent weeks. 2 yellow.b. f. The benchmark US maize prices (yellow.June 2 2013 013 COARSE GRAINS Major Coarse Grain Exporters and Importers Major Exporters Major Importers PRICES Expectation of improved supplies in 2013/14 weighs on prices Tight supplies. 2. Gulf) USD per tonne 350 Figure 2. were underpinned by strong international demand earlier in the year.Food F o od Outlook . CBOT maize futures for December USD per tonne 300 2012/13 300 2010/11 270 2011/12 250 240 200 210 2009/10 150 180 D J F M A M 100 2012 values J A S O N D J F M A M J 2013 values 2013 nearby values 16 . prices weakened slightly in recent months with newly harvested crops from South America reaching world markets and the expectation of a very strong recovery in production in the United States. International prices moved higher in the early months of 2013. Maize export price (US No.o. However. No. mainly due to drought-reduced 2012 maize crops in the United States.) averaged USD 295 per tonne in May. influenced also by currency movements and faster pace in exports. Australian sorghum prices rose sharply on supply concerns. Export prices of sorghum (Argentina and the United States origins) closely followed maize although. especially Black Sea quotations.

maize plantings are forecast to increase slightly this year and. harvesting of the 2013 first maize season is progressing.8 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 estim. In May. where the main maize harvest is already underway. where harvesting of the 2013 maize crop is almost complete. reaching 25. World maize production Million tonnes 1000 Figure 4. aggregate output is forecast to decrease for the third year in succession.8 percent above last year’s level to a new record of 214 million tonnes. resulting in a shift of planting area from maize to soybeans. to about 23 million tonnes. while planting of the second season crop was completed in March. and maize in particular. in Brazil. which would still remain above the short-term average. Global output of maize in 2013 is forecast at about 963 million tonnes. 2013 production is expected to increase 2.7 750 2.9 1.4 2.8 S O N D J F M A M 1. In the EU.3 2. 17 7 .8 million tonnes. where a sharp expansion in maize plantings is forecast. In Southern Africa.were also supportive. Barley values (feed barley) weakened as crop conditions improved and trade activity slowed down.4. In South America. The bulk of the increase is anticipated in the United States. driven by higher market prices.0 1. However. the main 2013 maize harvests are underway or already complete in some countries. 8. output could increase by some 16 percent or 9 million tonnes to about 65 million tonnes. the early pace of maize planting was much slower than normal due to adverse weather.7 million tonnes. whenever this ratio exceeds 2. the Chicago maize futures for December delivery averaged USD 223 per tonne.7 2012 2013 United States Brazil China (Mainland) Others EU From a historical perspective in the USA. This situation is very much a reflection of tight supplies of the old crop while markets anticipate prices to drop below current levels by the end of year with the arrival of a bumper new crop in the United States. Soybean/maize ratio 2.3 2.2 2. but it also reflects record crop prospects in China and good harvests already underway in South America. the world’s largest maize producer. Higher yields in the key growing areas have more than offset a reduction in the area planted caused by excessive rains at sowing time. production is officially forecast to increase by 21 percent from 2012. survey data indicates that producers intend to plant the largest area since 1936. If weather conditions remain clement. albeit slightly.5 2. a new record level. the world’s second largest maize producer. the general bias favours soybean over maize. assuming yields recover.9 1. Official forecasts point to an aggregate production in 2013 of 77.4 2. In South Africa.1 2.0 250 1. In Argentina. 10 percent up from 2012. In China.5 2. 2013/14 f’cast 1. have put downward pressure on prices in the futures markets. This mainly reflects an expected 9 percent increase overall in the area harvested. the subregion’s main producer and exporter. If these intentions are realized and yields return to normal after last year’s drought-reduced levels. weather improved in mid-May and farmers made up quickly for the lost time.1 500 2. 9 percent above last year’s peak.5 percent up from last year and a new record level. the country’s maize output could increase to about 340 million tonnes. PRODUCTION Global output of coarse grains could recover strongly in 2013 FAO’s latest forecast for world production of coarse grains in 2013 stands at 1 259 million tonnes. prospects have deteriorated since earlier in the season mainly because of dry conditions in western Market M a rket assessments Figure 3. well above the previous high of 1 167 million tonnes in 2011. In the Southern Hemisphere.2 2. In the United States. the world’s largest producer. 8 percent below their nearby (July) values. Good prospects for a strong recovery in coarse grains production in general.

1 12. Coarse grain production: leading producers* 2012 estim.6 19. 2013/14 f’cast Change: 2013/14 over 2012/13 Figure 5.7 199.8 152.3 31.6 0.3 2011 29.6 205. predominantly a white maize producing region.0 1 259.0 17. where total maize imports could rise by 11 percent and reach 55.7 Canada Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 277 1 283 283 8.1 40.7 % 120 8.Food F o od Outlook .4 12.7 1 160. Imports by China alone are forecast to climb by 3 million tonnes in 2013/14 in spite of anticipated record production this year.4 9.5 15.3 217. EU.7 17. which is forecast to reach a record 103 million tonnes. TRADE World trade in coarse grains to increase in 2013/14 FAO’s first forecast for world trade in coarse grains in 2013/14 (July/June) points to a 3 percent (4 million tonnes) expansion from the 2012/13 estimated level to an all-time high of 133 million tonnes.2 30.4 10.3 24.1 1.7 7.6 2.8 30.1 8.5 2013 Jan-May 0.6 19. Canada. China’s imports have been on the rise since 2010/11 and. The anticipated increase would be largely on account of a larger volume of maize trade.4 2 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season. Based on latest indications.5 131. Brazil.3 -1.0 0.5 percent (3. where outputs are forecast to recover from last year’s drought-reduced levels. Table 2. World output of barley in 2013 is forecast at about 138 million tonnes.0 142.June 2 2013 013 Table 1.7 129.7 327..5 million tonnes) from 2012/13.4 12.1 176. 2013 f”cast Change: 2013 over 2012 % areas of the country’s maize triangle.9 percent up from 2012.9 80.0 1 216.1 4.9 208.2 649.7 0.0 17.1 222.3 167.0 22.0 34. World barley production Million tonnes 180 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Trade1 Total utilization Food Feed Other uses Ending stocks 1 167. 60 2013/14 f’cast SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio2 (%) FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) EU 28.1 10.2 685.2 173. but the most significant increases would be in North Africa and the CIS countries in Europe.1 million tonnes.5 3.4 13. about 5 percent below the 2012 harvest.3 74.5 5.4 22. Growing conditions remain more favourable in the yellow maize growing eastern areas.2 -5.6 million tonnes. Australia.2 314.0 213.8 634. Ukraine and the United States.8 38. which was recently revised upwards.3 26. the country’s aggregate maize output is expected at 12.8 1 161.1 1259. Russian Fed. The bulk of the increase is expected in Asia.7 357.5 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 estim. 4.6 166. while recent episodes of animal diseases slowed the pace of China’s million tonnes United States China (Mainland) European Union Brazil India Russian Federation Argentina Ukraine Mexico Canada Nigeria Indonesia Ethiopia Turkey South Africa Other countries World 286.7 2.3 133.9 30.0 24.6 323.0 -8.8 31.0 0.0 6. Larger harvests are expected in all the major barley producing countries throughout the world. World coarse grain market at a glance 2011/12 2012/13 estim.4 1.6 39. Major exporters include Argentina.2 8.1 42.3 6.0 3. up 3.8 12.1 10.4 14.9 40.0 2012 CIS Others 28.9 1 160.5 * Countries listed according to their position in global production (average 2011-2013) 18 .1 29.0 1 168.8 23.8 34.

Global trade in sorghum is forecast to reach 7. 19 9 . Regarding coarse grains exports. In 2012/13. a major feed grain in the Union. Elsewhere. imports into Europe are expected to fall sharply in 2013/14. given this year’s anticipated recovery in the production of wheat. In Africa. maize exports are put at 30 million tonnes. mostly in the EU.5 million tonnes on lower shipments of barley. Coarse grains exports by Argentina are forecast to decline to 23. especially in Mexico where. Larger maize imports are also forecast for the Republic of Korea as the country is expected to take advantage of lower maize prices and reduce its purchase of feed wheat instead. bringing total purchases to 3 million tonnes to meet rising domestic demand. World barley trade is likely to remain steady at 19 million tonnes.5 million tonnes in 2013/14. in Europe. despite an increase in production. a recovery in supplies of maize in the United States is expected to boost its shipments to over 34 million tonnes. current indications point to a small reduction in barley imports to just above 1 million tonnes with most of the decrease in Algeria.2 million tonnes. Global trade in other coarse grains (millet. Coarse grain imports by region Figure 7. down from an exceptionally high level of 3 million tonnes in 2012/13. are forecast to increase by 1 million tonnes. imports by the United States are likely to return to a normal level of less than 1 million tonnes. Among the other major coarse grains exporters. Brazil became the world’s largest maize exporter. However. Of this total. which would be at least 10 million tonnes higher than the current season’s reduced level. Countries in Asia are expected to account for 81 percent of the world import volume with Saudi Arabia alone accounting for half of the volume flowing into the region. the world largest sorghum importer. Maize exports from Brazil may reach 23 million tonnes. rye and oats) is anticipated to total 3.5 million tonnes in 2013/14. of which barley would account for 72 percent. Likewise. the overall trend still points to further increases. Maize imports in Africa are forecast to increase significantly as well. Most of this increase is expected in Egypt where this year’s maize production could fall short of 2012/13 levels. from 13. to 6. imports by the Russian Federation and Ukraine are seen to decline slightly. However. Also in Latin America and the Caribbean. exports of barley from the two countries could remain close to 2012/13 levels. with total shipments of 27 million tonnes. By contrast. facilitated by higher domestic production. the forecast decline in Brazil’s exports to 23 million tonnes would place the country as the second largest maize exporter in 2013/14. unchanged from 2012/13 level. now forecast to be halved to 300 000 tonnes in 2013/14.2 million tonnes in 2012/13 to 15 million tonnes in 2013/14.Market M a rket assessments Figure 6. they could rise to 9 million tonnes in order to meet the growing demand from the feed sector. While exports from Canada and Australia are likely to decline somewhat. after the United States. Purchases by Mexico. up 500 000 tonnes from 2012/13. maize imports are forecast higher. total shipments from the EU are forecast to rise slightly. Major coarse grain exporters Million tonnes 80 Canada 2012/13 estimate 2013/14 forecast Australia Russian Federation EU Ukraine 60 40 Brazil Argentina 20 United States 0 10 20 Million tonnes 30 40 0 Asia Africa South America Central America Europe 2012/13 estimate 2013/14 forecast feed grains purchases from world markets. given the anticipated recovery in domestic supplies in 2013/14. Mexico’s increase will be partially offset by lower EU imports. maize exports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine are anticipated to increase. surpassing even the United States.

However. in Central America. the bulk of the growth is expected in the United States. thus leading to a stable average per capita consumption of around 29 kg. In contrast to the situation in the current season (2012/13). In the developed countries. World food consumption of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 1.6 percent higher than in 2012/13. Maize use for ethanol (excluding non-fuel in the United States) 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Thousand tonnes 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 estim. 6 percent higher than the latest estimate for the current marketing season and exceeding the projected feed use in the developed countries for the second consecutive season. the aggregate feed use is projected at 349 million tonnes.2 41 273 832 116 845 -8 43 359 173 123 195 5 34 UTILIZATION Falling prices could boost feed and industrial utilization of coarse grains Based on early indications. where a recovery in maize production and falling prices could boost its domestic feed utilization by as much as 16 percent (18 million tonnes) to 130 million tonnes. where total feed use in 2013/14 is projected to rise by 5 percent (about 17 million tonnes) to 337 million tonnes. Coarse grain utilization Million tonnes 1400 1050 700 350 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 estim. which is still below the 127 million tonnes record hit in 2010/11. the anticipated rate of increase in food consumption of coarse grains would closely trail growth in world population. early projections point to a significant (5. to 208 million tonnes. most of this increase is expected to be concentrated in few countries. to an all-time high of 1 217 million tonnes. total utilization of coarse grains in 2013/14 could be heading for the first significant yearon-year expansion in more than five years. At the global level.2 percent from 2011/12 as high prices weigh on ethanol production. it is put at 99 kg.Food F o od Outlook .June 2 2013 013 Table 3. Although globally. The expansions are mostly driven by expectations of much higher feed use. up 3 percent from the estimated level in 2012/13.6 percent in the developing countries. In the developing countries. 2013/14 f’cast Feed use Other uses Food use group.5 percent in 2013/14. Globally. direct human consumption of coarse grains may seem far less significant than that of rice or wheat. 2 20 . primarily in the emerging markets such as Brazil and China. when total utilization in the developed countries is estimated to have contracted by over 2 percent against an expansion of 3. FAO’s first forecast for global utilization of coarse grains points to a 4 percent increase from the 2012/13 stagnated level. with their use increasing by around 4 percent in each group.4 percent) rebound in the US use of maize for production of ethanol in the new marketing season (2013/14). largely reflecting the anticipated rebound in maize supplies in the new season. per capita consumption is projected at 78 kg while. the forecast growth in 2013/14 is likely to be shared equally between the developed and developing countries. Total industrial use of coarse grains is forecast to reach at least 292 million tonnes in 2013/14. nearly one-half of total industrial utilization of coarse grains is concentrated in the United States (at over 150 million tonnes). as a Figure 8. However. increasing to 123 million tonnes. of which at least 117 million tonnes will be used for production of ethanol in 2012/13 (October/September) according to the official estimates. 2013/14* (f’cast) Maize production Ethanol use Yearly change (%) As production (%) 267 503 53 837 32 20 311 177 77 453 44 23 307 142 93 396 21 30 332 549 116 616 25 35 316 165 127 538 9 40 313 949 127 284 -0. In Africa. based on the expectation of a record US maize crop this year. coarse grains do account for an important share of human food consumption in Central America and the Caribbean as well as many countries in Africa. This would be down 8. some 5. Total feed utilization of coarse grains is forecast to reach 686 million tonnes in 2013/14.

Brazil is also expected to end the new season with much larger maize stocks. The bulk of the recovery in world stocks of coarse grains is expected in the United States.STOCKS Inventories to rebound from a 2-year low to highest in 14 years Assuming current production forecasts for 2013 materialize and based on FAO’s early projections for total utilization in 2013/14. This is as much as 24 percent (41 million tonnes) above their 2-year low opening levels of only 173 million tonnes and the highest level since 2000. This improvement is also evidenced by the sharp increase in the major exporters’ stock-to-disappearance ratio (i. having fallen to a critically low level of 19 million tonnes in 2012/13. given this year’s bumper harvest and reduced export prospects compared to 2012/13. Coarse grain stocks and ratios Million tonnes 300 Percent 20 200 15 100 10 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 estim.e. domestic consumption plus exports). where based on current expectation of another record maize crop this year. This will lift the global stock-to-use ratio from the historically low level of 14. 21 1 .5 percent in 2013/14 – the highest level since 2009/10. Larger carryovers. 2013/14 f’cast 5 United States Rest of the World World Stock-to-use ratio Stock-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters Significantly larger inventories are anticipated in China. signalling a notable improvement in the global supply and demand balance in the new season after an exceptionally tight situation in 2012/13. driven by the projected strong recovery in maize production this year.2 percent in 2012/13 to at least 17 percent in 2013/14. inventories could reach 67 million tonnes. are forecast to more than double and reach at least 45 million tonnes. global inventories of coarse grains are likely to reach 214 million tonnes by the close of seasons in 2014. are also forecast for the EU. where maize stocks. which is forecast to rebound from the historical low level of 8 percent in 2012/13 to 12. their highest since 2005/06. 5 million tonnes higher than their opening levels. Market M a rket assessments Figure 9.

Food F o od Outlook .2 4% rice was quoted at USD 652 per tonne in May 2013. reflecting thin supplies amid strong buying interest. which averaged 240 points in May 2013. prices have followed diverging trends since the beginning of the year. The hefty public stocks held in Thailand also weighed on market sentiment. in spite of continued large government purchases under the rice pledging programme. For instance. same as in January. amid growing competition among suppliers.4 percent from May 2012 to May 2013. the high quality Indica US N. and in Pakistan.8 percent higher than in January and almost 20 percent higher than in May last year. prompting Viet Nam to lower its own prices ahead of a possible offloading of large volumes of Thai rice on world markets. reflecting thin supply availabilities. or 1. the benchmark Thai white rice 100% B eased by 6. Export prices for lower quality rice USD per tonne 600 500 400 300 M J J A S O N D J F M A M 2012 Thailand 25% India 25% 2013 Pakistan 25% Viet Nam 25% dropped 4 points. although the reduction or removal of minimum export prices also contributed to the drop in Viet Nam. 5. dipping in the first quarter. as indicated by the FAO All Rice Price Index (2002-04=100). over the five-month period. before recovering in May to its January value. 2 22 .June 2 2013 013 RICE Major Rice Exporters and Importers Major Exporters Major Importers PRICES International rice prices stable around high levels International rice prices were generally stable in the past five months. reflecting lower availabilities and large government purchases. Large supplies exerted downward pressure on quotations in Thailand and Viet Nam. on average.1 percent to USD 574 per tonne between January and May. On the contrary. on strong import demand from China and African countries. including Argentina and Uruguay. By contrast. aromatic rice varieties gained 6 percent between January and May 2013. and by 6.8 percent. Across the various rice types. prices still were about 2 percent higher than in the corresponding period in 2012. the lower quality Indica Rice index was quoted at 238 in May. unchanged from a revised January value. Prices also strengthened in the United States and in the chief exporters in South America. prices of regular Indica rice moved up in India. In the United States. Seen from an origin perspective. while the higher quality Indica Figure 1. However. Japonica rice prices were more volatile.

respectively. The bulk of production will only be garnered in the second half of the year. have been predicted to reach 98 percent of their long-run average in India. the only critical revision to the 2012 world rice production estimate concerned India. In Africa.4 percent more than in 2011. where crops were hit by unfavourable weather. the sector continued to benefit from special development programmes. 2012 production contracted by almost 7 percent to 18. Farmers are more exposed in the Americas and Europe. in the Northern Hemisphere. as many governments.4 million tonnes. or are still waiting for the rains to come to start planting. but also in Guinea. which more than compensated for shortfalls in India.6 million tonnes.5 million tonnes were harvested. output in 2012 rose by 30 percent in Australia and by 8 percent in the United States.In the next few months. ultimately. a relatively modest performance if compared to the 13 million tonne and 16 million tonne gains recorded by the sector in 2010 and 2011. countries have just completed the sowing of their 2013 first (or single) crop. If confirmed. but also on India. where the transmission of prices from international to domestic markets looks stronger. While countries along and south of the equator are already harvesting their main crops. as the country emerged as one of the leading rice importers in the last year. shielding them against international price dips. resulting in a 1. Ecuador and Uruguay. Figure 2. output fell in Nigeria. which determine much of the outcome of the season in the region. in milled rice terms. In Latin America and the Caribbean. equivalent to about 4.0 million tonnes in 2013. With the 2012 rice season now concluded. The expected increase falls short of those realized in 2010 and 2011. In most of the region. Indonesia.6 million tonnes. PRODUCTION Preliminary forecasts for 2013 point to stronger production growth Since the May 2013 release of global rice supply and demand balances. Thailand and Viet Nam. some 4. Still tentatively. production in Asia is forecast to grow by 1.1 million tonnes. Monsoon rains. following weather and price-induced reductions in Argentina. the effect on plantings of a possible drop in world quotations is likely to be uneven.9 percent. where output was officially raised by 2.3 million tonnes. regarding the possible release of large volumes of pledged rice from public stocks. but stagnated in the EU and the Russian Federation. because of delayed and erratic rainfall. or 8. India’s new production figure implies that the losses caused by the 2012 erratic monsoon rains were much less severe than originally believed. The global pattern of the 2012 season follows closely the outcome of crops in Asia. largely because of the existing global supply overhang. In the other regions. The pace of rice imports by China will also be critical. Mali and Senegal. and assuming normal weather conditions prevail in the coming months. 5.5 million tonnes are estimated to have been harvested. where 444. the market attention is likely to focus on Thailand. with much of the increase likely to be concentrated in the seven eastern states that have been targeted for production expansion under India’s “Extending the Green Revolution to Eastern States” programme. which is 1. The raising of official paddy procurement prices and/or other Market M a rket assessments 23 3 . Global rice paddy production and area Million tonnes 750 Million ha 170 700 160 650 150 600 140 550 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 130 estim. FAO forecasts world rice production in 2013 to reach 499. f’cast Production Area some 17. where the planned widening of the subsidized rice distribution programme may have an impact on export availabilities and prices. Madagascar. the Philippines. The increase was supported by large gains in China. Much of the gain originated in Egypt. Under more regular climatic conditions. as well as renewed investor interest. Brazil. the market attention is shifting to the 2013 crops. or 9 million tonnes. where high prices induced farmers to exceed their official cultivation limits. By contrast. However.4 million tonnes more than in 2011. farm prices. to 453. The revision lifts the 2012 global production aggregate to nearly 490 million tonnes. more than in 2012. which could depress world prices and. guarantee relatively high support price levels to producers. especially in Asia. Nepal and Pakistan. they could support a 2 percent upturn of production in the country to a record 106 million tonnes.0 percent increase from 2011. and in Tanzania.9 percent. reflecting excessive precipitation and flooding.

it reflects more buoyant expectations for exports by India. which more than offset downward adjustments for Thailand and the United States. 12 2012 estimate 2013 forecast 8 4 0 India Pakistan Thailand USA Viet Nam Others 2 24 . milled eq. but remain downbeat in the United States and the EU. 3. with the possible exceptions of Japan. 13 f’cast Far East Near East Africa Lat.1 million tonnes of rice are expected to be harvested in Africa. Malaysia and the Philippines. where official forecasts point to a slight decline of output. The revision mainly accounts for larger than previously forecast imports by China. 45 2002-2004=100 300 30 200 15 100 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 * 0 estim. especially in Bangladesh. 18. Mali. which may result in a 15 percent shortfall from last season.June 2 2013 013 support measures are expected to foster a continued expansion of outputs. China. Large investments in the sector are also expected to underpin production in Western and Eastern Africa. where adverse weather and unattractive price expectations may result in a contraction of the rice area. prospects are negative for Madagascar. with the largest absolute gains expected in Egypt. Figure 3. production is forecast to rebound to 18. However. The international trade in rice is now approaching 8 percent of world production.6 percent lower. 15 10 5 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 estim. In the other regions. Rice exports by the major exporters Million tonnes. still remaining short of the 2011 record. However. Indonesia.5 million tonnes. In Latin America and the Caribbean. Myanmar and Viet Nam. the recent decision to raise the permitted area for rice cultivation is foreseen to boost output by 4 percent. Nigeria and Tanzania. On the supply side. which last year benefited from exceptionally favourable weather conditions. Am. virtually all producing countries in the region look set to harvest larger crops. but still the second highest in history. with a 15 percent increase forecast by the Government. and Viet Nam. up from less than 7 percent in the previous decade. where the 2013 main crops are already at an advanced growing stage. production in Mozambique has been hit by excessive precipitation and floods. prospects for 2013 are positive for Australia. Likewise. the volume of rice trade in 2013 would be 2. where the 2013 crops are already at the harvesting stage. milled eq. Rice imports by region Million tonnes. Europe Others TRADE Weak import demand to result in a 2 percent contraction of rice trade in 2013 FAO has raised its previous forecasts of international rice trade in 2013 by about 200 000 tonnes to 37. reflecting mainly the possible negative effects of locust outbreaks on yields.9 percent more than in 2012. Much of the expected contraction of rice trade in 2013 would be Figure 5. In 2013. Compared to the 2012 record. milled eq. as many producers cut rice planting in favour of more remunerative crops.Food F o od Outlook .6 million tonnes (milled basis). f’cast Exports * January-May average for prices FAO Rice Export Price Index Figure 4. at this preliminary stage. In Egypt. World rice trade and FAO rice export price index Million tonnes.

6 kg per person in 2012/13 compared to 12. falling international prices. As for exports. which guarantees very cheap rice supplies to a widened set of the population. the country has taken an aggressive stance to buoy sales. making imports particularly attractive. The anticipated decline reflects rising prices in India and anticipation of larger domestic requirements.4 percent to 12.4 million tonnes. Indonesia and Myanmar.2 million tonnes. this is gauged at close to 403 million tonnes. under current prospects for a good 2013 production turnout. which lifts the average world rice food intake per capita from 56.6 million tonnes this year. but still sufficient for it to retain its leading position among international suppliers. is implemented.8 kg in 2012/13. and falling in the developed countries by 2. once the National Food Security Act. by 2. which enabled them to refurbish stocks. and have shown a tendency to rise in important countries such as China. Pakistan and the United States are also forecast to step up exports. Nigeria. global rice utilization in 2013/14 is anticipated to expand strongly. which will contribute to lifting per capita food consumption further. Rice remains a major staple for developing countries. the Philippines and Thailand.1 kg in 2013/14. Market M a rket assessments UTILIZATION Demand for food consumption continues to underpin world rice utilization Global rice utilization in 2012/13 is estimated to hover around 478 million tonnes. as the high prices guaranteed to Thai producers under the rice pledging programme continue to translate into export quotations far above those of competitors. Thailand is foreseen to export around 7 million tonnes. Based on current expectations.b. The increase in average rice food consumption is being facilitated in various countries by declining retail prices (Table 7) and. Indeed.7 kg. albeit by only 0. India. in others. 7. However.4 kg in 2011/12 to 56.associated with reduced purchases by Indonesia. which include rice post-harvest losses. which have been reported to be rising.3 million tonnes delivered in 2012 . which may see exports rising by 6 percent to 8. Wholesale rice prices in China (Mainland) vs export prices in Vietnam USD per tonne 650 China: Hubei (Indica. where consumption is now estimated at 67.) 350 2010 2011 2012 2013 25 5 . Reduced availabilities could also hinder exports from Argentina. of their efforts to thwart illegal rice inflows. could be affected by the very recent news regarding the detection of cadmium in rice produced in China’s Hunan province.4 percent from the previous year – rising in the developing countries. However.5 million tonnes more than in 2011/12.1 percent to 67. by special subsidized distribution programmes targeting vulnerable population groups. China’s import figure does not make provision for unofficial inflows. and divert a wider share of the country’s supplies towards feed and other utilizations. following their fast paced purchases last year.o. retail prices remain high. A large part of these shortfalls is expected to be covered by Viet Nam. Egypt.0 kg. This event could have implications at the national level. On the other hand. Based on expectations for a large increase in world supplies. almost 2 percent more than in the previous year. in the last three countries. Figure 6.7 percent or almost 13 million tonnes. however. a similar level to last year. hence. Overall. first quality) 550 450 Viet Nam 5% broken (f. India is anticipated to ship 8. Among the other important sources. Imports by the Islamic Republic of Iran and Egypt may also decline. world rice per capita food consumption is anticipated to average 57. Much of the increase would correspond to rice utilization as food. Brazil and Uruguay. as domestic prices are still substantially above nearby exporter’s quotations. partly the result of good crops and. exceeding USD 1. to 491 million tonnes. Demand of rice for food.00 per kg in several markets. official imports by China are predicted to remain at last year’s level of 2. shipments from Thailand could rebound sharply. Cadmium is a carcinogenic metal that can cause severe damage to kidneys and bones. with most of the increase sustained by growing demand for food. fearing a reversal of policies in Thailand will result in a large release of supplies from stocks in the country and. up 0. should government procurement purchases under the pledging programme be discontinued or large supplies from public stocks be downloaded on the market. first by reducing or suspending its minimum export prices. much less than the 10.3 kg per person in the developed countries.

mainly reflecting upward revisions for India. Rice production.4 161. At that level. This would lift the world stock-to-use ratio further to 36.4 402. especially Thailand and India.7 0. 40 20 20 10 0 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 f’cast 0 Closing Stocks Stock-to-disappearance ratio STOCKS Exporting countries to account for the increase in world stocks FAO’s forecast of global rice carryover stocks at the close of crop seasons in 2013 have been raised by about 2 million tonnes since May. World rice market at a glance 2010/11 2011/12 estim. Based on the current forecasts for 2013 production and very early prospects for 2014 trade. the increase in carryover stocks would lift the world rice stock-to-use ratio from 33. global rice carryover stocks at the close of marketing years in 2014 are anticipated to reach 182. Thailand. 2 26 .0 Figure 8.June 2 2013 013 Figure 7.0 21.6 478. while importing countries may cut their reserves by 3 percent to 28. an increase of 5 percent from their opening levels.3 percent in 2013. utilization and stocks Million tonnes. 60 Percent 30 1 2 FAO RICE PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 251 240 241 2.8 70. 2012/13 f’cast Change: 2012/13 over 2011/12 million tonnes 450 150 WORLD BALANCE Production Trade 400 100 1 % 469. milled eq.6 1. Major exporters include India. and for Thailand. with much of the increase concentrated in China and Thailand where inventories are bulging.7 1. following the release of new production figures for 2012. resulting in their stock-to-disappearance ratio rising from 25.5 395.3 Calendar year exports (second year shown).8 percent in 2012 to 35.2 33.0 million tonnes. the five major rice exporters (India.2 million tonnes in 2012 to 44.8 25.9 145.2 percent to 26.4 Total utilization Food Ending stocks 350 50 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 f’cast Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio2 (%) 56.2 2012 56.9 1. on lowered export prospects. milled eq. 500 Million tonnes.3 38. Seen from a trade status perspective.2 460.8 2013 Jan-May 0.9 -2. Pakistan.Food F o od Outlook . Overall.9 173. Stocks held by the five major rice exporters and stock-to-disappearance ratio Million tonnes.3 31. 200 Table 1.7 489.9 million tonnes in 2013. Based on the current estimates.9 37. Thailand.6 469. The Chinese and Thai Governments are actively purchasing rice from the market to support producer prices.1 million tonnes.7 485. milled eq.3 26. inventories held by exporting countries are set to end close to 10 percent higher at 145 million tonnes.7 million tonnes. the United States and Viet Nam.1 36.4 387. Large supplies are expected to be carried forward to next season by the major exporters.8 percent over the two years.4 70.9 7.9 35. United States and Viet Nam) are anticipated to increase their end-of-season inventories from 41.3 percent in 2014.1 69. to 173.1 2011 Production (left axis) Stocks (right axis) Utilization (left axis) 56. where public stocks are reaching very high levels. inventories would be 7 percent larger than their opening level. Pakistan.

23 0.21 0% 0.80 0.99 1.85 -1% 4% -6% 4% 35% 3% 6% 0% 11% 1% -5% 0.52 -5% -4% 0.63 0.52 0% 0. (well-milled) Sri Lanka: Colombo (white) Thailand: Bangkok (5% broken)* Viet Nam: Dong Thap (25% broken) WESTERN AFRICA 2008 -100 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 2007 Benin: Cotonou (imported) Mar-13 Apr-13 Dec-12 Mar-13 Apr-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 0.85 0.16 0.91 -1% 6% 0.42 14% 1. of Tanzania: Dar es Salaam* Market M a rket assessments 27 7 . (medium quality) Lao PDR: Vientiane (glutinous first quality) Mongolia: Ulaanbaatar Myanmar: Yangon (manawthukha FQ)* Nepal: Kathmandu (coarse) Pakistan: Karachi (irri) Philippines: Ntl. Monthly retail prices of rice in selected markets Historical monthly month hly pr h price e trend 2008 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 0 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 ASIA Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 0.86 0% 0.45 6% 13% 0.95 -6% 0. (japonica second quality) India: Delhi Indonesia: Ntl.03 0.41 0% 0. Avg.65 1.93 -3% 3% -4% -19% -14% -4% -30% -16% 16% -16% -14% -37% -21% -37% 34% -16% 32% -48% 24% 13% Djibouti: Djibouti (Belem)* Rwanda: Kigali* Somalia: Mogadishu (imported) Uganda: Kampala* United Rep. Avg.34 0.94 1.64 4% 33% 4% 52% 8% 43% Dem.93 0.46 -5% 0.59 1.Table 2. Rep.75 1. Congo: Kinshasa (imported) EASTERN AFRICA 2008 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 2007 Burundi: Bujumbura Mar-13 Dec-12 Apr-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 1.16 0.52 8% 14% 0.40 5% 9% Latest available: Month USD/Kg Latest quotation available compared to: /1 3 months earlier 1 year earlier 2 years earlier 100 2007 Bangladesh: Dhaka (coarse) -8% 8% 13% 6% 21% 18% -6% 2% 6% 6% 24% 2% 0% 16% -17% Cambodia: Phnom Penh (mix)* China: 50 City Avg.05 0% 0% 2% 0% -3% -1% 2% 5% 0% 4% 11% -5% -20% 20% 8% -6% 10% -1% 10% 6% 0% -16% -9% 19% Burkina Faso: Ouagadougou (imported)* Cape Verde: Santiago (imported) Chad: N'Djamena (imported) Mali: Bamako* Mauritania: Nouakchott (imported) Niger: Niamey (imported)* Senegal: Dakar (imported) CENTRAL AFRICA 2008 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 2007 Cameroon: Yaundé Dec-12 Apr-13 0.

Avg. * Wholesale prices.60 1% 4% 1% -1% EUROPE 2008 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 2007 Italy: Milan (arborio volano)* Apr-13 Apr-13 0. (local) 9% -10% Malawi: Lilongwe Mozambique: Maputo CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 2008 -100 0 100 -100 0 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 100 -100 0 100 2007 Costa Rica: Ntl.21 0.59 2% 6% SOUTHERN AFRICA Latest quotation available compared to: /1 3 months earlier 1 year earlier 2 years earlier 100 2007 Madagascar: Ntl.08 0% 1.97 18% -5% -9% 1% 0% 12% 29% 8% -1% 3% 31% 5% 24% 1% Brazil: São Paulo Colombia: Bogotá (first quality)* Ecuador: Quito (long grain)* Peru: Lima (corriente) NORTH AMERICA 2008 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 2007 United States: City Avg. (second quality) Haiti: Port-au-Prince (imported) Honduras: Tegucigalpa (second quality)* Mexico: Mexico City (sinaloa)* Nicaragua: Ntl.S.22 -6% 6% -2% -20% 20% -11% -48% 48% -18% Russian Federation: Ntl. Monthly retail prices of rice in selected markets (Cont’d) Latest available: Month USD/Kg Apr-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 0.82 0% 9% 1.97 1. Associazione Industrie Risiere Italiane (AIRI). Avg.21 1. (second quality) Panama: Panama City (first quality) SOUTH AMERICA 2008 -100 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 2007 Bolivia: La Paz (grano de oro)* Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 1. (long grain.95 1.91 0. U.00 4% 27% 0.05 0.55 - 1% -6% -7% 2% 6% 12% 6% 4% 8% -7% 7% -2% -7% 6% 14% 6% -2% 10% 10% Dominican Rep: Santo Domingo (first quality) El Salvador: San Salvador Guatemala: Ntl.20 0.00 -7% 1. .Food F o od Outlook .88 1% 1. Avg. Sources: FAO/GIEWS Food Price Data and Analysis Tool.88 -3% 0% 0. /1 Quotations in the month specified in the fourth column were compared to their levels in the preceding three. uncooked) Apr-13 1. Avg. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).11 0% 1.June 2 2013 013 2 28 Historical monthly price month hly pr h e trend 2008 -100 0 100 -100 0 100 -100 2009 2010 2 2011 2012 2013 0 Table 2. Avg. (first quality) Mar-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 1. twelve and twenty-four months. Price comparisons were made in nominal local currency units.17 0% 1.

However. on average. during the first seven months of the current 2012/13 season. strong reliance on thinning old crop supplies from the United States and. while those of meals remained close to all-time highs. the market’s protracted. the data on trade in and stocks of oils (cakes) refer to the sum of trade in and stocks of oils and cakes plus the oil (cake) equivalent of oilseed trade and stocks. oilseeds and meals/ cakes started to ease. 200 150 100 Oilseeds 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2 29 9 .OILSEEDS. a number of factors prevented oilseed prices from falling more markedly. Therefore. which is dominated by soybean meal. However. The world market for protein meals/cakes. largely followed the dynamics Figure 1. oilseed quotations were. For details on prices and corresponding indices. FAO monthly international price indices for oilseeds. oils/fats and meals/cakes (2002-2004=100) 300 Meals/cakes Oils/fats 250 Almost the entire volume of oilcrops harvested worldwide is crushed to obtain oils and fats for human nutrition or industrial purposes. i. they do not reflect the outcome of actual oilseed crush in individual countries. In the meantime. Additional factors contributing to the easing of soybean prices include relatively weak demand growth in China and the EU. oils/fats values continued to lose strength. 1 the softening of international grains prices and forecasts of a possible bumper 2013/14 soy crop in the United States. international prices for both. following the downward path that commenced in 2011. ending a spell of steady price rises. as forecasts of a full rebound and possibly a record performance in total oilseed production in 2012/13 allayed market concerns regarding global supply tightness. Oilseed prices eased. rather than referring to oilseeds. the analysis of the market situation is mainly undertaken in terms of oils/fats and cakes/meals. making up for the poor US soybean harvest.e. Production data for oils (cakes) derived from oilseeds refer to the oil (cake) equivalents of national production of the relevant oilseeds. see appendix table 24. and to obtain cakes and meals which are used as feed ingredients. the prospect of record South American soy crops brought relief to the market. notably unexpected weather problems in parts of South America. OILS AND MEALS1 Major oilseeds exporters and importers Market M a rket assessments Major Exporters Major Importers PRICES2 As the 2011/12 season (October/September) drew to a close. more recently. Furthermore. the emergence of logistical bottlenecks in Brazil and sluggish sales of soybeans by Argentine farmers. above the level recorded during the corresponding period of the last three seasons. In particular.

exerting downward pressure on prices. now expected to climb to a record 266 million tonnes – 11 percent more than in 2011/12. subdued economic growth worldwide has affected demand from the food and oleochemical industries.June 2 2013 013 Figure 2.Food F o od Outlook . CBOT soybean futures for September USD per tonne 2011/12 550 500 230 2010/11 450 200 2012/13 400 350 170 O N D J F M A M J J A S S O N D J F M A M 2011 values 2012 values 2013 values Figure 3. at the same time. with 2012/13 closing stocks and stock-to-use ratios for oils and meals anticipated to improve. Furthermore. FAO monthly price index for meals/cakes (2002-2004=100) 300 2012/13 2011/12 of the soybean market. A period of unusually high palm oil production combined with a temporary slowdown in import demand led to an exceptional surge in inventories in key producing countries. FAO monthly price index for oils/fats (2002-2004=100) 300 2010/11 250 2011/12 200 2012/13 150 O N D J F M A M J J A S Figure 4. though still preliminary. demand from the biodiesel sector has reportedly weakened due to reduced profitability and growing uncertainty about the direction of future bio-energy policies. Prices in the oilseed complex could ease further during the remainder of the season. In addition. have ranged below the corresponding values of the last two years. Regarding the slide in oils/fats prices during 2012/13. Soybean production gains are largely driven by expansion 3 30 . the gradual softening in CBOT soybean futures prices. developments in the palm oil market played a major role. which. OILSEEDS 250 Record 2012/13 production estimate 2010/11 200 150 O N D J F M A M J J A S Global oilseed production is forecast to rebound strongly in 2012/13 – up 5 percent from last season’s depressed outcome and 2 percent higher than the historic record set in 2010/11. plus there are encouraging. seems to point in the same direction. since mid-March. in addition to softening soybean values. with increasingly tight global fishmeal supplies also lending support to prices. FAO monthly price index for oilseeds (2002-2004=100) 260 Figure 5. The rise is mainly due to the production forecast for soybeans. crop forecasts for 2013/14. and.

0 2.1 69.4 10.0 5. in Asia.1 468. animal and marin origin.6 117.4 46.4 101.6 14. All meal figures are expressed in protein equivalent. groundnut and palmkernel.4 442.9 4. Pakistan and Australia. in area cultivated.Table 1. Record outputs are also expected for rapeseed.6 18. In the United States.0 176. 31 1 .5 2012/13 Oct-May 7.6 2011/12 118. in particular in Argentina.9 458.5 184.3 131. China and the United States. Canada. World production of major oilseeds 2010/11 2011/12 estim.6 13. By contrast. Malaysia. meals include all meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as meals of marine and animal origin. unfavourable weather conditions have affected yields.7 9.8 44.0 3. 2012/13 f’cast Change: 2012/13 over 2011/12 % Note: The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown.4 10.3 33. China has reported a further production drop. calendar year production for the second year shown is used.4 38. which are produced throughout the year. Despite spells of dry weather.9 453.7 266. forecasts had to be successively lowered due to extreme weather conditions.8 115.4 Change: Oct-May 2012/13 over Oct-May 2011/12 % 10. Brazil and Paraguay reported record harvests thanks to further expansion in plantings and near-record yield levels.0 17.7 35.4 TOTAL OILSEEDS Production OILS AND FATS1 Production Supply2 180. whereas the projected rise in groundnut mainly comes from record yields in the United States and from higher plantings combined with productivity increases in China. 2012/13 f’cast Change 2012/13 over 2011/12 % million tonnes and yields in Brazil.6 44.4 60. Trade data refer to exports based on a common October/September marketing season and relate to the sum of trade in oils (meals) plus the oil (meal) equivalent of oilcrops traded.1 10. Meanwhile.0 13.1 0.7 220. driving down production for the second consecutive year.2 183. given that. Paraguay and the United States. Major exporters include Argentina. For rapeseed.9 17. the crop suffered from an exceptional drought. due to additional cuts in area planted.0 2. with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown.9 15. Market M a rket assessments Soybeans Rapeseed Cottonseed Groundnuts (unshelled) Sunflower seed Palm kernels Copra Total 265.1 72. less favourable weather in the Russian Federation and the Ukraine prevented a repeat of last season’s bumper crop.9 -4. in several growing regions. Brazil. India.8 5.1 239.6 4.6 477. Indonesia.5 -1. production prospects deteriorated as a result of excessive rainfall towards the beginning of the growing season. Indonesia.3 466. With regard to sunflowerseed. World oilseed and product market at a glance 2010/11 2011/12 estim. As the season progressed.1 37.5 37.3 214.4 208.5 114. thanks to a yield increase that followed average rainfalls.1 188. Higher global palmkernel production is largely based on further expansion of mature oil palm area in Indonesia.3 3.9 1.1 -1. Brazil.7 97. Major exporters include Argentina. a noticeable production drop is forecast for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. For tree crops.3 39. With the decline in US production.0 134. first in the United States and then in some key production areas of South America.0 -14. which are only partially offset by good harvests in China and the United States.9 2. Brazil’s output should – for the first time – almost match that of the United States.3 5.3 million tonnes Table 2.3 2010/11 110.7 11. Malaysia and the United States.0 12. The projected decrease in cottonseed output is mostly driven by lower plantings Utilization3 Trade4 Stock-to-utilization ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio 5 (%) MEALS AND CAKES6 Production Supply2 Utilization3 Trade4 Stock-to-utilization ratio (%) Major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio 7 (%) FAO PRICE INDICES (Oct/Sept) (2002-2004=100) 118.9 72. Production plus opening stocks. Residual of the balance. India.6 Oilseeds Meals/cakes Oils/fats 1 2 3 4 215 221 256 214 224 232 221 267 202 5 6 7 Includes oils and fats of vegetable.7 2.8 -8.3 188. production declines – caused by bad weather in Canada and planting reduction in Europe – should be more than offset by production gains in India. whereas India has harvested a bumper crop.6 137.0 92.0 62.5 17.8 61.5 7. Canada. In Argentina.4 5.1 33.5 5.

Thailand and the Philippines. right axis) 3 32 . which comprise 2012/13 production and 2011/12 ending stocks. Global oils/fats supplies. with Paraguay. robust growth in soy and palm oil supplies is to be partially offset by a contraction in global rape. By contrast. industrial demand is expected to grow primarily among developing nations. Honduras. consumption growth could slow down relative to previous years. Argentina and China. Palm oil gains continue to be concentrated in Indonesia.Food F o od Outlook . However. production should rebound thanks to a recovery in yields and small rises in mature area. Palm oil supply growth remains concentrated in Indonesia and Malaysia. Consumption growth occurs almost exclusively in developing countries. sunflower and olive oil. In South America and Africa. Much of the projected rise in soyoil availabilities (referring to oil obtained from domestic crops) is expected to occur in Brazil. compared with an average growth rate of over 4 percent for the last four years. thanks to expansion in mature oil palm area. The slowdown mainly reflects subdued global economic growth as well as weak demand from the biodiesel sector. where domestic consumption targets for the current year have been raised and the tax break granted Oils/fats consumption growth to slow down in 2012/13 Estimated at 188 million tonnes. oils/fats consumption is bound to stagnate due to poor economic growth. compared with the past two years and given the absence of significant yield improvements. where biodiesel production capacities have expanded and national policies continue to encourage biofuel production for either domestic use or export. and the fall in sunflower and olive oil supplies concerns primarily the CIS region and the EU. notably within the EU. explains the relatively modest growth in global output. Colombia. partly reflecting national policy measures in support of domestic crushing and refining industries. the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Cuba standing ready to join the list of biodiesel producing countries. The expansion of oils and fats consumption is expected to concentrate in China. economic growth keeps stimulating demand for food and oleochemical products. given its competitive price relative to soy and other oils. where continued 3 Figure 6. Unlike past years. in particular in Asia. India and Indonesia. -6 2012/13 f’cast This section refers to oils from all origins. while an absolute fall is forecast for rapeseed oil. Global production and utilization of oils/fats Million tonnes 190 Million tonnes 6 180 3 170 0 160 -3 150 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 estim. which is a low oil-yielding crop. consumption growth should slow down in the case of soy and sunflower oil. By contrast. The exception is the United States.June 2 2013 013 OILS AND FATS3 Growth in global oils/fats supplies to remain below trend Current crop forecasts for 2012/13 translate into a yearon-year increase of 3 percent in global oils/fats production. Malaysia. Meanwhile. Indonesia. are considering to cap mandatory blending requirements and to limit subsidies granted to crop-based or “first generation” biofuels. among developed nations. Indonesian production growth is poised to slow. Brazil. the expected expansion remains well below trend growth. among developed countries – which include the world’s leading biodiesel producers and consumers – oils/fats demand for biofuel production is forecast to grow only modestly. are forecast to increase by less than 3 percent. where unfavourable weather curtailed output last year. though considerably less than before. which – in addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds – include palm oil. Several developed economies. due to concerns over the environmental footprint of such fuels. Countries where biodiesel production should keep expanding include Argentina. The fact that much of this year’s oilseed production rise comes from soybeans. global consumption of oils/fats is predicted to expand by only 2 percent. Although above last season’s rate. Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis) Balance (production minus utilization. Commodity-wise. With palm oil demand expanding by a steady 5–6 percent per year. together with the prospect of only a moderate increase in palm oil production. marine oils as well as animal fats. the reduction in global rape oil availabilities originates in Canada. Demand from the biodiesel industry will continue contributing to global consumption growth. The growth leader is palm oil. In Malaysia. its share of total oils/fats consumption is set to approach 30 percent in 2012/13.

which is expected to boost the country’s imports to a record 23 million tonnes (including the oil equivalent contained in oilseed purchases). global trade in oils/fats is forecast to expand in 2012/13 by 3 percent to 101 million tonnes (including the oil contained in traded oilseeds). In India. which have curbed export availability in the region. while the decline of sunflower oil trade is related to poor harvests in various parts of Europe. China. The prospective drop in world sales of rapeseed oil mainly reflects Canada’s poor crop outturn. the global stock-to-use ratio should improve slightly compared with last season. Among the world’s leading soy exporters. The practice of producing biodiesel from imported feedstock or directly importing biodiesel is expected to continue in several developed countries. China could also take advantage of easing import prices to replenish domestic stocks. The increase concerns primarily palm oil and. By the end of the season. up almost 4 percent from last season. Malaysia is set for a reduction in its record palm oil inventories. palm and soy. The slowdown mirrors this season’s sluggish consumption growth. Incremental soyoil sales should originate mainly in Argentina. reliance on foreign purchases to satisfy domestic Market M a rket assessments 30 15 20 12 10 9 0 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 estim. As for global oils/fats imports. explains the recent easing of international oils/fats prices. Indonesia and Malaysia are responsible for the expansion in palm oil shipments. the stagnation in domestic supplies is forecast to push imports above 11 million tonnes. Considering the relatively modest growth in world oils/fats consumption currently anticipated. This. the United States should draw down inventories for the third consecutive year. soy and rapeseed oil.Figure 7. The same situation applies to Canada regarding rapeseed. With regard to individual countries. 8 and 5 percent. Oil/fat exports by major exporters (including the oil contained in seed exports) Million tonnes 25 2011/12 estimate 20 2012/13 forecast 15 10 5 0 Argentina Brazil Canada Indonesia Malaysia United States 33 3 . 2012/13 global closing stocks (which comprise oil/fat inventories plus the oil contained in stored oilseeds) are anticipated to rise to about 33 million tonnes. 2012/13 end-of-season stocks anticipated to rise Based on the above supply and demand forecasts. respectively. in part. China’s private and public stocks. Concerning exports. Among exporters. Shipments of the two most traded oils. India and the EU. a replenishment of stocks should be possible in Argentina and especially Brazil. dragging them to the lowest level in nine years. the three leading buyers. In China. while global trade in rape and sunflower oil should drop markedly – a pattern that reflects the prevailing price structure. while Indonesia is likely to expand its reserves. Figure 8. while a sizeable reduction in inventories is anticipated for sunflower and olive oil. World stocks and ratios of oils/fats (including the oil contained in seeds stored) Million tonnes 40 Percent 18 Trade in oils/fats to expand further during 2012/13 After growing by 5 percent on average during the last five years. As for other major importers. the increase in domestic supplies is not sufficient to meet growing consumer demand. India’s inventories should grow. 2012/13 f’cast 6 Major Exporters Rest of the World World Stock-to-use ratio Stock-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters to blenders extended. National stocks continue to be released to meet growing export demand. In both countries. to a lesser extent. are expected to top 11 million tonnes. comprising the oil contained in stored oilseeds. are estimated to rise by. where reduced domestic demand from the biodiesel industry (caused by lower EU biofuel imports) should raise export availabilities. whereas EU stocks are expected to drop below the level of past years. are forecast to expand their purchases. By contrast. China remains by far the largest stockholder.

notably Brazil. In Africa. the world’s leading meal producer.June 2 2013 013 Figure 9. In Asia. this also includes fish meal and meals of animal origin. the world’s major consuming region. meal demand may fall by 2–3 percent. utilization is forecast to grow by no more than 2 percent. mirroring subdued consumption growth. The rise in total output concerns primarily soymeal producing countries in South America. By contrast. almost matching the 2010/11 record. Argentina and Paraguay. Estimated at 116 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents). involving primarily soybean meal.Food F o od Outlook . -8 2012/13 f’cast 4 This section refers to meals from all origins. demand is estimated to increase by merely 1 percent. even within the context of a stagnating domestic consumption. a slowdown in domestic consumption growth is anticipated to curb aggregate purchases. Estimated at 118 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents). Global production and utilization of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent) Million tonnes 125 Million tonnes 8 115 4 105 0 95 -4 85 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 estim. developing countries should account for over 60 percent of global utilization compared with 53 percent Asia excl. 0 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 f’cast Global meal consumption to contract slightly in 2012/13 Persistently high meal/cake prices combined with weak economic growth world-wide should lead to an unusual contraction in global meal consumption. whereas sizeable year-on-year drops are expected for some other major players. as they will be needed to compensate for the supply drawdown caused by poor rapeseed harvests. global availability of meals/cakes will still increase. Consumption falls are expected primarily in developed nations. the steep rise in domestic availabilities should stimulate meal consumption. thanks to massive improvements in Brazil. Total oil/fat imports by region or major country (including the oil contained in seed imports) Million tonnes 40 30 20 10 Global supplies of meals/cakes. Due to last season’s sharp drawdown in stocks. By contrast. although production of rapeseed. MEALS AND CAKES4 Global meal supplies to recover only partially in 2012/13 Current crop estimates translate into a conspicuous yearon-year rise in overall meals/cakes production. groundnut and palmkernel meal would also improve. where numerous countries are import-dependent. While sizeable supply drops are also expected in the EU and Canada. In China. which comprise 2012/13 production plus 2011/12 ending stocks. Soymeal will be the main source of growth. In addition to products derived from the oil crops discussed under the section on oilseeds. are forecast to grow by less than 3 percent. pushing supplies to a multi-year low. Regarding other Asian importers. only a marginal increase in imports is expected. right axis) 3 34 . China (total) Latin America United States & Canada Europe China (total) Africa demand is bound to rise further. In India. across South America. Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis) Balance (production minus utilization. global utilization in 2012/13 will still be the second highest on record. The EU’s imports are expected to grow. 2012/13 availabilities will only recover partially from last season’s significant drop. which compares with an average of 8 percent in the last three years. As a whole. global production should recover almost entirely from last year’s decline. production of sunflower and cottonseed meal is likely to fall. following poor crop outturns. whereas developing countries are likely to face a slowdown in growth. in particular the United States and the EU. In the United States. Figure 10. due to reduced growth in meat production. domestic availability is set to shrink for the second consecutive season.

Figure 11. The stagnation in total trade is directly related to subdued meal consumption in the world’s key importing countries. only Argentina and Brazil are expected to rebuild stocks. the anticipated reconstitution in global stocks would lead to an improvement in the global stock-to-use ratio. reflecting efforts to compensate for stagnating or falling imports. up 6 percent from their opening level. 2012/13 f’cast 0 Major Exporters Rest of the World World Stock-to-use ratio Stock-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters Figure 12. 25 20 15 10 5 0 Partial recovery in meals/cakes inventories likely This season’s recovery in global production combined with the slowdown in consumption should allow a rebuilding of global meal/cake stocks. meal consumption is projected to contract by. despite the anticipated drop in domestic supplies. the ratio would still remain well below the level prevailing in past years. In China. among key stockholding countries. the recovery expected for this year would only be a partial one. high feed costs eroded profitability in livestock production. Led by soybeans. inventory levels are set to shrink for the second consecutive season. Higher soymeal shipments should be offset by lower transactions of rape. end-of-season stocks are forecast to rise to 18 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalent and comprising meal contained in stored oilseeds). In the EU and the United States. sunflower and fish meal. If realized. respectively. Considering that global stocks dropped by 21 percent last year. In many developed countries. which explains the relative firmness of international meal prices during the past months. 4 and 9 percent. imports (comprising the meal contained in imported seeds) should remain virtually unchanged. as the country strives to satisfy demands of both domestic users and foreign buyers. eventually driving down meal demand. The halt mainly reflects the unusual slowdown in domestic meal consumption. much in contrast to the steady expansion observed in previous years. Market M a rket assessments 21 15 14 10 7 5 0 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 estim. Meals/cake imports by region or major country (in protein equivalent and inclduing the meal contained in seed imports) Million tonnes only five years ago. It is important to note that. The EU is expected to cut its imports further. China and the EU are expected to cut down their reserves for the second season in a row. dragging meal utilization to multi-year lows. falling to the lowest level in nine years. However. China (total) Latin America United States & Canada Europe China (total) Africa Figure 13. In the United States. Meal/cake exports by major exporters (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed exports) Million tonnes 25 2011/12 estimate 2012/13 forecast 20 15 10 5 0 Argentina Brazil Canada India Paraguay United States 35 5 . As to meal importing countries. the 2012/13 global trade in meals/cakes is anticipated to remain mostly unchanged. World stocks and ratios of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seeds stored) Million tonnes 28 Percent 20 Global meal trade unchanged from last season After years of steady expansion. 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 f’cast Asia excl.

possibly limiting expansion in area planted and. provided normal weather conditions prevail. due to cuts in area planted. which. provided weather conditions continue to be favourable. Production gains would be led by the EU and Ukraine. The only preliminary. a recovery in yields is expected to boost Argentina’s output. the current supply and demand tightness could come to an end. are historically high. Aggregate groundnut output is projected to fall. Accordingly. By contrast. In South America. Clearly. World cottonseed production is forecast to remain unchanged from last season. Although relatively firm world prices for oilseeds should stimulate plantings of crops for harvest in 2013/14.Food F o od Outlook . as yields are assumed to return to trend levels. Conversely. production is anticipated to rise on account of higher plantings. facilitating a general easing of international prices for oilseeds and oilseed products. purchases could fall below 25 million tonnes (expressed in protein equivalents). global sunflowerseed output should recover only partially from last season’s drop. mainly reflecting likely reductions in planted area and yields in the United States. limitations in domestic transport and port facilities are also behind the country’s weak export performance. As the anticipated production may outstrip consumption. where preparations for the next oilcrop campaign are underway. 2013/14 PRODUCTION OUTLOOK With the 2012/13 season still on-going. a steep rise in global soybean production seems possible. A return to average yields should lift Canada’s harvest to near-record levels. In the EU. in turn. potentially. 3 36 . exceeding last year’s record by a small margin. While production could also grow in India. production gains. led by soybean production gains in the United States and Argentina. In Brazil. a 3-year low. it is too early to provide supply and demand projections for 2013/14. only minimal expansion is expected in area planted. Output is nonetheless projected to climb to a new record. with reduced crops in China and the United States offsetting larger harvests in Brazil and India. in particular maize.June 2 2013 013 For the developed country group. On the whole. the EU and China will be in a position to reconstitute their inventories. a further drop in output is expected in China. the above tentative forecasts point to a conspicuous increase in total oilseed production in 2013/14. This would mean that during 2013/14. China’s production is forecast to drop as farmers increase plantings of wheat and other grains at the expense of rapeseed. though incomplete. the record high international meal prices prevailing since the middle of 2012 have dampened the global appetite for imported meals. information that can be offered is based on planting intentions in the Northern Hemisphere. A similar picture is emerging for rapeseed production. with regard to soybeans. In the United States. leaves sufficient room for the reconstitution of national stocks. persistently high transportation costs are likely to continue weighing on farmers’ returns. The bulk of the world’s export supplies continues to come from the Americas. In Brazil. while developing country imports might reach 47 million tonnes. considering ample domestic availabilities. mostly based on a recovery in yields. further improving the stock-to-use ratios and. Together. falling domestic supplies will force overseas sales down for the third consecutive year. despite a likely reduction in planted area in favour of wheat. South America is expected to expand its shipments by only 2 percent. the competition for land remains strong due to the fact that also prices of other crops. the United States. in the United States. Canada.

26 cents per pound in February 2013. as measured by the ISA daily prices (for raw sugar). was announced. when a larger than expected harvest in Brazil. Prices averaged US 19. The downward trend is attributed to an expansion of production in response to an historically low global stock-to-use ratio. Prices in the second half of 2013 are likely to remain under downward pressure.SUGAR Major Sugar Exporters and Importers Market M a rket assessments Major Exporters Major Importers PRICES International sugar prices easing World sugar prices. the world’s largest sugar producer. but then retreated to US 17. have been on a declining trend since the release of the November 2012 issue of Food Outlook.80 cents per pound in April.31 cents per pound in December 2012 and fell to US 18. which underpinned the market between 2008/09 and 2010/11. sugar quotations were 22 percent lower than in the corresponding period in 2012. Overall. reflecting short-term supply tightness.46 cents per pound in March. 2012/13 f’cast 20 12 J F M A M J J A S * As measured by the International Sugar Agreement (ISA) O N D Closing Stocks Stock-to-use ratio Stock-to-disappearance ratio 37 7 . confirming the steady decline initiated in January 2011. from January to April 2013. given prospects of a second consecutive world production surplus which would bring Figure 1. World closing stocks and stock-to-use ratio Million tonnes 90 Percent 50 2011 27 60 40 2012 22 30 30 2013 17 2010 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 estim. International sugar prices* US cents per lb. They rose slightly to US 18. 32 Figure 2.

which boosted sugar crop yields. Much of this upward revision is due to production in Brazil. it increased the mandatory amount of ethanol to be blended into gasoline back to 25 percent beginning in May 2013. FAO’s current estimate for world sugar production in 2012/13. By contrast. In addition. EU. Mexico and China. is becoming firmer.June 2 2013 013 Figure 3. production is anticipated to increase by 5.8 percent to 42. with most of the gain stemming from developing countries. it raised them by 7 percent. which eventually determines how much of the two products will be produced out of sugarcane. after keeping gasoline prices unchanged since 2006 to check inflation.8 percent to 38. but it will remain about unchanged in Argentina. where less than favourable weather. Mexico and the United States. mainly. 4. where the sector is set to rebound by 6. World sugar surplus/deficit Million tonnes 30 US cents per lb. in particular Brazil. China. PRODUCTION1 World sugar production to reach a new record level in 2012/13 With most of the 2012/13 sugarcane and sugar beet crops already harvested in the main producing areas. prevented expansion in sugarcane production. output in the developed countries is anticipated to contract by 1. The surplus is currently predicted to reach 6. Data relate to the October/September season. The expected expansion in world sugar production in 2012/13 season is attributed to an overall increase in area planted to sugarcane in response to the relatively high sugar returns witnessed over the past three seasons. The Government of Brazil recently introduced two measures that have the potential to divert a greater share of sugarcane output into ethanol. Under the current forecast.3 percent more than in 2011/12. following a poor 2011/12 sugarcane harvest. Sugar production by major producing countries Million tonnes 45 Figure 4. The expansion in the region would be mainly on account of Brazil. The blending rate had been cut to 20 percent in October 2011. Sugar production is also expected to increase in Colombia.6 million tonnes. which are predicted to harvest 137 million tonnes overall. mostly in the main producing region of Tucuman.9 percent. although it is likely to 1 Sugar production figures refer to centrifugal sugar derived from sugar cane or beet.8 percent over the previous season. amid generally favourable weather conditions and larger plantings. which is more than compensating for the reduced forecasts in. Sugar production also responds to changes in the ethanol/sugar price ratio. First. expressed in raw equivalents. World production is predicted to increase 2. mostly on account of the EU. a move that improves the competiveness of ethanol against gasoline at the pump. Second. the larger the amount of cane converted into ethanol at the expense of sugar.7 million tonnes. at 180 million tonnes. be subject to revisions as the new season progresses in the southern hemisphere. 3 38 . In South America. India and Thailand.5 million tonnes.5 million tonnes. world production in 2012/13 will be more than sufficient to allow for an increase in total consumption and a rebuilding of world inventories.Food F o od Outlook . the second largest producer in the region. The higher the price ratio. The figure points to a new record production which surpasses the November 2012 preliminary forecast by 2. 30 2011/12 estimate 2012/13 forecast 30 15 15 0 15 -15 2002 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 f’cast 0 -15 China India Thailand Mexico Brazil USA EU Surplus/Deficit ISA price the global stock-to-use ratio to a comfortable level of 40 percent. attractive prices encouraged the use of fertilizers and other inputs.

and Yunnan.18 5.7 10. including higher official support to cane prices. At the same time.30 16.55 16.7 4.35 -22.6 44.64 38.1 46. also helped incentivise farmers. revised forecasts for 2012/13 indicate that sugar production in Mexico will increase. sugar output is expected to increase by 1.Table 1. However. but may remain stagnant in Turkey and Japan.5 42.7 180. Sugarcane production is expected to benefit from improved climatic conditions in South Africa. the EU’s ending stocks are foreseen to return to historic levels. sustained by recent expansions in harvested areas and investments at factory level.6 10. sugar output is to remain around the relatively high levels of the past two seasons. the latest estimates for the EU point to a decrease in sugar production. prompted by favourable rains and the introduction of high-yielding plant varieties.6 180. the largest producer in the region.87 39. following favourable monsoon rains.1 173. driven by investment in increasing sugar productive capacities at farm and factory levels. production is set to fall in India and Thailand. South Africa. In Swaziland. which would likely foster an expansion Market M a rket assessments 39 9 . as about 900 000 tonnes of sugar are expected to be carried over from the 2011/12 season into 2012/13.0 51. its second largest. In Asia.3 68. 2012/13 f’cast Change: 2012/13 over 2011/12 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Trade Total utilization Ending stocks 165.4 12. Sugar production in China is expected to surge in 2012/13.5 69.80 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) LIFDC (kg/yr) World stock-to-use ratio (%) ISA DAILY PRICE AVERAGE (US cents/lb) 23. as less than favourable weather conditions led to weaker sugar extraction rates.35 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 26. These measures are likely to moderate the amplitude of the production cycles which characterize the sugar subsector in India. Outputs in 2012/13 are also likely to increase in Indonesia and Vietnam.6 million tonnes. no further increase is anticipated for the new season. Latest estimates indicate that 2012/13 sugar output in Thailand.8 14. were major contributing factors in boosting plantings.8 28.6 54.8 65. driven by investment in irrigation and price incentives provided under the EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) introduced in 2009. notably in France and Germany. sugar output is expected to reach a record in 2012/13.2 52. 2012/13 sugar production is projected to rise on the back of largely favourable weather conditions. the government approved a partial deregulation of the sugar industry.41 Table 2.62 2012 24. In April 2013. In Cuba.36 2011 24.5 26. area planted under sugarcane has increased 20 percent since 2000. The final decision regarding the elimination of sugar production quotas and minimum sugar beet prices.4 % 2. Swaziland and Sudan are set to harvest larger crops.75 -2. relatively attractive returns in 2010 and 2011 encouraged farmers to increase their sugarcane plantings and use of fertilizers.5 In Central America. which lifted yields and harvested areas.62 2.0 137.2 175. In Africa.8 62.9 43.6 8.5 18. Financial assistance.19 39.5 169. As a result.0 21. affecting yields and reducing harvested areas.6 4. sustained by expansions in China and Pakistan.7 percent compared to the 2011/12 marketing season. In Guatemala. could fall below the all-time high recorded in the previous season. A series of policy measures.8 159. the world’s second largest sugar exporter.0 7.03 1.99 2013 Jan-May 1. sugar production is expected to continue its moderate recovery.13 15. abolishing the required 10 percent levy on sugar mills and deregulating sales in the open market. China’s largest sugar producing province. notably in Guangxi. after the country was hit by the worst drought in 20 years in 2010/11 and 2011/12. while output is expected to remain at last year’s level in Egypt. In Pakistan. In Europe.9 175. largely due to unfavourable weather conditions hampering beet yields. sugar production in the country is anticipated to decline by 5 percent to 26. Still. World sugar market at a glance 2010/11 2011/12 estim. higher than expected sugarcane yields boosted sugar output in 2011/12. World sugar production 2011/12 2012/13 million tonnes Asia Africa Central America South America North America Europe Oceania World Developing countries Developed countries 67.2 131. Nonetheless. as well as the subsidized inputs that sugar mills provided to farmers. below average monsoon rains during the cane’s critical growing stage hindered yields. In India.

1 million tonnes. In the rest of the world. Sugar imports by major importing countries Million tonnes 6 2011/12 estimate 2012/13 forecast 4 UTILIZATION World sugar consumption sustained by lower prices Global sugar consumption is anticipated to reach 173. Production in 2011/12 is expected to fall in the Russian Federation. The main feature of sugar trade in the 2012/13 season is the rebounding of deliveries from Brazil. including Brazil.3 kg in 2011/12 to 24.6 kg in 2012/13. aggregate sugar utilization is estimated to expand by 2. which had fallen in 2011/12 amid tight domestic supplies. or 2.2 percent more than in 2011/12.7 million tonnes. Brazil is expected to supply 50 percent of world trade in 2012/13. 2. consumption is to increase by 1. China and India. However. is expected sometime in June 2013. Sugar exports by major exporting countries Million tonnes 30 2011/12 estimate 2012/13 forecast 20 10 0 Brazil Thailand Australia Guatemala Mexico EU India 4 40 . Syrian Arab Republic and Japan. Also.8 million tonnes. are highly influenced by the economic environment. or 3.6 percent. sunflower and wheat. countries.1 million tonnes. sustained by increases in both beet and cane sugar outputs. However. The EU Commission. which stimulated sharp increases in sugarcane area. Under current prospects. Sugar production is expected to remain relatively unchanged from last season in Ukraine.1 percent. production in the United States is forecast to surpass its 2011/12 level and reach a record high. which account for the bulk of aggregate sugar consumption.7 million tonnes. The decline would also reflect the decision by farmers not to expand area. which include Egypt. as a result of delays in planting due to cold weather.5 million tonnes in 2012/13.Food F o od Outlook . amid conducive weather conditions. In the generally more mature markets of developed countries. the depreciation of the currency of several major sugar importers against the US dollar – which makes imports in domestic currency more expensive – could lead to weaker intake of sugar in these 2 0 EU China Indonesia USA Algeria Korea Rep. Falling domestic sugar prices were witnessed in all the major markets. TRADE Weaker import demand behind a contraction of world sugar trade in 2012/13 The forecast for world sugar trade in 2012/13 (October/ September) stands at 51. equivalent to 70 percent of global consumption. perfectly in line with the 10-year trend. despite further contraction of beet plantings. from 24. In Australia. the world’s largest exporter. spurred by favourable growing conditions as well as favourable sugarcane prices.June 2 2013 013 in sugar production. In developing countries.6 percent less than in the previous season. to 51. Large supply availabilities and lower international and domestic prices are expected to support increases in per capita sugar intake in 2012/13. 3. to 121. a deterioration of the 2013 global economic prospects could undermine demand expansion. as compared to 2011/2012. Beet prices are less competitive than alternative crops such as maize.5 percent. Figure 6. world per capita sugar consumption is anticipated to rise slightly. sugar production is set to rise by 12. Parliament and Council are all proposing different years for their abolition. as manufacturing and food preparation sectors. Gains in average sugarcane yields to about 85 tonnes per hectare also helped boost production. given the scarcity of storage facilities – an issue they dealt with last year when they harvested a record-level crop. the final volume sold abroad by the country will very Figure 5.

as increasing population and per capita income triggered strong increases in demand. In Europe. as explained in the production section. reflecting expectations of an increasing domestic output and a slowdown in state purchases as stocks return to comfortable levels. Peru and the EU. as demand from the food and beverages industry remains steady. with large investments targeting refined sugar export markets. in an attempt to lift internal prices. far below the 2. the main destinations of Guatemala’s sugar export. amounting to 264 000 tonnes of sugar and increasing at annual rate of 3 percent. with the bulk of the sales directed to China.8 million tonnes imported in 2010/11. is expected to expand sugar deliveries. once the world’s largest sugar market. On the other hand. overall. In the rest of the world. The agreement took effect provisionally for the EU and Peru on 1 March 2013.61 million tonnes. due to greater production.4 million tonnes. Sales by Mexico are anticipated to increase in 2012/13. India’s competitiveness on the international market is being constrained by rising production costs and falling world prices. Sugar has become a key source of foreign exchange earnings for the country. given ample supply availabilities and competitive pricing. but only slightly above last year’s record. spurred by abundant supply availability. while imports into Indonesia may increase. Thailand. Thailand is also expected to fill its 2013 tariff rate quota (TRQ) with imports from the United States of 15 027 metric tonnes (raw value). However. are expected to rise from 800 000 tonnes in 2011/12 to about 1 million tonnes in 2012/13. estimates for imports may be revised upwards considering the conclusion of a free trade agreement between Colombia. Market M a rket assessments 41 1 . deliveries from Australia. Imports by Asian countries are forecast to decline somewhat in 2012/13 as a result of higher sugar production. with the bulk of shipments directed to the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) market. are set to rise. Likewise. Exports by Guatemala are foreseen to hover around the same level as last year. the Republic of Korea and Canada. African countries are expected to import 2. despite relatively comfortable supply availability. down from 3. After being the main driver of imports between 2009 and 2011. Exports to China are expected to contract given the increase in Chinese production. Supported by greater domestic production and exportable surplus. including Indonesia. and the agreement with Colombia will follow at a later date. shipments from India are estimated at 800 000 tonnes. shipments to the EU are forecast to fall due to ample domestic availabilities.7 percent more. Production gains are also anticipated to enable Cuba to step up exports. Guatemala. A bumper crop is also expected to raise deliveries by South Africa. Demand for ethanol will also be driven by the need of the United States to meet its advanced mandate requirements through imported ethanol-based sugarcane from Brazil. may drop somewhat in light of expected higher output while.7 million tonnes last season. However. Much of the reductions would result from lower purchases by China. purchases by the United States. El Salvador. Honduras. shipments into Japan and Malaysia are predicted to change little. imports by the Russian Federation. to just below the country’s historic high of 3. about half of which are managed through a TRQ system of 1. These free trade agreements will allow additional duty-free TRQs. As a result of falling domestic production. Due to the expected reduction in sugar output. The Government of Mexico recently established a trust fund to facilitate exports of sugar surplus to NAFTA and international markets. which would add pressure for EU’s imports to increase further. Nicaragua and Panama – also could take effect next year. The bulk of the country’s exports is forecast to be shipped in raw form (about 60 percent) to neighbouring countries. especially considering the recent increase in the mandated blend ratio and gasoline prices. and with shipments growing by 41 percent per year. which may depress exports below last’s year level. and to the United States to fill its 2013 TRQ allocation. the world’s third largest supplier. especially in the United States. China is expected to rely less on international markets in 2012/13.much depend on the quantity of sugarcane production processed into ethanol. Malaysia and the Republic of Korea. A similar agreement between the EU and six countries in Central America – Costa Rica. the final amount of shipped sugar still will depend on the extent to which high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) substitutes for domestic sugar use. the second largest exporter.

Global meat exports are anticipated to rise to 30. which are the most dependent on concentrated feed. The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 179 in May 2013. which collectively account for almost 60 percent of the world total. BOVINE MEAT Herd rebuilding over the past two years promotes production growth in 2013 Bovine meat production is forecast to reach 68. while Figure 1. an increase of 4. having moved within the narrow band of 177–179 since October 2012. trade to slow World meat production. particularly in the pig and poultry sectors. Meat prices have remained at historically high levels since the early part of 2011. which are the main centres of demand growth. representing a further increase over 2012. however. Gains in global meat trade in 2013 Thousand tonnes 400 200 0 Total -200 Developed countries Developing countries -400 Beef Poultry Pigmeat 4 42 . rising marginally for poultry and pork. they began to fall during the second half of 2012 and have continued to diminish during 2013.1 percent over 2012.Food F o od Outlook . and falling for ovine meat.4 percent compared with 2012. remaining largely stable for beef.2 million tonnes in 2013. In many countries.June 2 2013 013 MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS Major Meat Exporters and Importers Major Exporters Major Importers Moderate meat production growth. Meat trade is expected to grow more slowly in 2013 than in recent years due to adequate national supplies in a number of importing countries and a reduction in production among some of the major exporters.2 million tonnes. This has offered greater scope for profitable meat production. producers continue to struggle against elevated feed prices. Meat production is anticipated to grow the most vigorously in the developing countries. which had followed two years of stagnation in 2010 and 2011.3 million tonnes or 1. an increase of 1. although remaining high by historical standards. is anticipated to grow modestly in 2013 to 308. Export reference prices for the different types of meat have followed varying directions so far this year.1 million tonnes in 2013. The resurgence in output is being led by the developing countries.

reduced profitability is expected to lead to further herd reduction.7 32.8 30.6 million tonnes. dry conditions in recent months and the carryover effect of higher feed costs in 2012 are anticipated to raise slaughter rates and boost production in both Australia and New Zealand.6 1. In Oceania.2 0.6 104. Elsewhere in the region.1 79. Brazil. In addition. US producers also have had to cope with elevated feed costs.1 5. following two years of herd rebuilding.3 33. this process may be amplified in 2013. the world’s third largest beef producer.2 13. Beef output is forecast to continue to increase in the Republic of Korea. For Africa. Limited supplies and elevated feed costs sustain meat prices 230 180 130 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pigmeat price index Poultry price index Beef price index Ovine price index 43 3 . In Market M a rket assessments Figure 2.1 2012 43.3 0.4 114. with a resultant increase in beef production.5 million tonnes. However.9 8. bovine meat production in Egypt could show limited recovery in 2013. In the EU. offsetting some of the growth in the developing countries. as the sector comes to terms with labour shortages and high production costs that have led many small-scale producers to cease operations. output is expected to fall by 3 percent. thanks to its investments in new processing operations. as pasture conditions are good. Paraguay and Uruguay.1 4.5 0. cattle availabilities and slaughter have been rising.9 67.5 million tonnes. production is expected to reach a record 9. 2013 f’cast Change: 2013 over 2012 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Bovine meat Poultry meat Pigmeat Ovine meat Trade Bovine meat Poultry meat Pigmeat Ovine meat 297. The same factors are expected to cause a similar decline in production in neighbouring Canada.9 1. Output in South Africa is also anticipated to increase. In developed countries.3 102.8 1. the fifth largest bovine meat producer.8 308. which perhaps represents a slowing of the long-term decline in the Union’s cattle herd amidst some indications that production may grow in 2014.6 67.8 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) Developed (kg/yr) Developing (kg/yr) FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 42. In China. World meat market at a glance 2011 2012 estim.2 8. the world’s second largest beef producer after the US. This is due to a drop in cattle slaughtered – a situation that stems from a decline in the production of calves linked to drought-related herd reduction. particularly in Argentina. due to an augmentation of slaughter rates in the face of higher production costs. For Argentina.5 13.1 106. the world’s largest beef producer.2 1.3 0.6 112.9 climatic factors have restrained beef production in many developed countries. the industry is improving its management practices. as a result of governmentimposed restrictions on exports.5 29. it will be at 0. and international demand is strong. as is Vietnam. is anticipated to show additional production growth. production is expected to contract to 7.9 % 1.3 2013 Jan-May 0.1 7.7 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 177 175 179 0.0 13.5 percent. production of bovine meat is anticipated to be constrained in a number of the principal producers. production is expected to remain around 6. In the Russian Federation. In the United States. following extensive culling due to a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in 2012.7 303. In Asia. a much slower rate than the 4 percent fall in 2012. In Brazil. India.5 2011 43.2 68.Table 1.1 33.4 0.1 12.2 8.5 1.2 13.6 13.5 78. external market demand is less of a factor in expanding meat production than in neighbouring Paraguay and Uruguay.3 7.1 109.0 79.6 29. In South America.8 7.4 0.5 -4. reflecting government slaughter subsidies and challenges to profitability in the light of lowpriced domestic pork. which is similar to the previous three years. weather conditions have generally been favourable for pasture growth and feed grains – presenting the prospect of rising beef production for the continent overall.

the industry is being assisted by reduced feed prices and is benefitting from government policies favouring large-scale farms Trade in bovine meat to rise: Brazil and India vie for premier exporter position Although for the past two years. Marked increases in imports are expected for the United States. In Canada. In the EU. the third largest producing country. however. growth in the sector is being limited by competition from other types of meat. Elsewhere in Asia.8 million tonnes. A shortage of domestic supplies in a number of countries has been an important contributor to the trade expansion. At this level. Deliveries to the Russian Federation. these four countries together supply 65 percent of bovine meat trade. the second most important pork producer after China – compliance with animal welfare requirements relating to the housing of sows is expected to depress output for a second year. as a consequence of ample domestic supplies and price competition from other types of meat. 2013 imports are expected to be similar to 2012. Canada. in some cases. Japan. Almost twothirds of pig meat production originates in the developing countries. where a sustained 4 percent growth is forecast. In Mexico. India’s principal markets are Vietnam and Malaysia. In the United States. Thailand and Indonesia – in some instances. and be above those of the other two principal beef exporting countries.6 million tonnes. and in order of volume of trade. with an anticipated fall of 2 percent. associated with an expansion of the breeding herd could lead to limited growth. imports by Japan. as a result of higher slaughter rates in 2012 in response to the elevated price of feed and. Elsewhere in Asia. the world’s fourth largest producing country. Malaysia and Vietnam are expected to increase moderately. following an outbreak of avian influenza. while purchases by the Republic of Korea are anticipated to remain depressed. Elsewhere. underpinned by improved genetics and productivity. by 6 percent and 4 percent.Food F o od Outlook . abundant stocks. Higher production means that increased shipments are expected for both Brazil and Australia. Uruguay. In the EU – at 22. bovine meat output is projected to remain stable at around the 0.5 percent to a record level of 114. However. Australia and the United States. could also be below those of the previous year. In total. India’s 2013 bovine meat exports may grow by as much as 15 percent to 1. output is forecast to be moderately higher in Vietnam. which together represent approximately a further 20 percent of trade. Brazil. is expected to see pigmeat output increase. Mexico and Argentina. Asia is the principal region. the world’s largest beef importer (and a major exporter) and. sales would equal those of Brazil. respectively. the Philippines. Recovery from FMD-depletion should boost production in the Republic of Korea. or almost half of the world total. lower feed costs and increased slaughter. to a lesser degree for Canada.4 million tonnes. Overall. the rate of growth will be slower than in the previous year. Conversely. At the same time. the second largest importer. Strong consumer demand and government support policies are anticipated to result in China’s pork output reaching 53. New Zealand. which are translating into more piglets per litter and higher animal weights. as a result of a rise in domestic supplies. while shipments by the EU. accounting for almost 60 percent of world pig meat production. listed by magnitude of production. production continues to expand. PIGMEAT Growth in Asia to sustain world pigmeat production Production of pig meat is expected to grow by 1. the meat has found a ready outlet in many other countries. producers’ struggles to remain profitable have resulted in a number ceasing operations –consequently a small decrease in output is anticipated. The development of buffalo meat exports by India is boosting the country’s deliveries to Asian neighbours and to the Near East and North Africa. Paraguay.June 2 2013 013 Japan. Demand from China is also anticipated to remain firm and imports may increase by over 20 percent compared to 2012 levels – especially as some consumers switch from poultry to other meat. In the Americas. limited domestic supplies will keep United States’ trade at a level similar to 2012. Belarus and Nicaragua are forecast to remain stable or dip slightly lower. which depressed prices. with world exports expanding by 4 percent to 8.2 million tonnes in 2013. to compensate for domestic shortfalls. In the Russian Federation. Pig meat trade stalls in the face of reduced demand in Asia and lower export availabilities Reduced output among some of the principal exporting countries and a decrease in demand by several major importing countries are expected to result in a decline in 4 44 . prices have been at the highest levels of the past two decades. stimulated by improved pig prices. trade in bovine meat increased in 2012 and is expected to register further growth in 2013.5 million tonne mark. which is where most of the increase in output is forecast. composite production by the developed countries is expected to show a small decline.6 million tonnes. are all anticipated to increase sales.

especially in Mexico due in part to its newly recognized status as free of Classical Swine Fever. In the United States. such as Chile and Mexico. Imports by China are expected to be stable. facilitated by a newly negotiated customs union with the Russian Federation. only Japan is expected to register a fall in output. China’s poultry output has been provisionally set as unchanged from 2012.8 percent to 106 million tonnes in 2013. output remains constrained by the cost of feed. Mexico. Competitive pricing of poultry relative to other meats is an important element in its momentum. represents almost 45 percent of world commerce. production growth is anticipated for the EU.6 percent. Consequently. Brazil. reflecting expanding production and strong competition from poultry and imported beef.0 180 0. growth has stalled since 2010. consumer confidence in poultry meat has diminished and sales are reported to have suffered. In terms of exports. Purchases by Asia. the largest importer. as a consequence of a rise in production. production growth is foreseen in both developing and developed country groupings.6 percent increase originally projected. although this may fall further during the year. which could decline by 0. This reflects a build-up of stocks and a fall in domestic prices stemming from a strong recovery of production following the 2011 FMD outbreak. a 6 percent decrease is anticipated for 2013. or 30 percent. especially in the EU. are expected to rise. Japan.4 Feed price index (left axis) Pigmeat/feed index (right axis) Poultry/feed index (right axis) POULTRY MEAT Production growth continues despite disease outbreaks Global poultry production is anticipated to increase 1.pig meat trade during 2013. which collectively account for 26 percent of world production.2 million tonnes. This slowdown is expected to continue in 2013. following notable growth in recent years. but on trend to replace the United States as the main producing country in the next few years – remains difficult because of culling and limitations on the retail sale of live poultry following an outbreak of H7N9 influenza strain in March. decreasing by around 150 000 tonnes. Pig meat imports by Asian countries. Procurement by the Republic of Korea is forecast to register a substantial drop for the second year in a row. while Ukraine’s purchases may fall due to restrictions on imports established in favour of national producers. such as the Ukraine. the fourth largest exporter.7 130 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0. which as a group represent approximately half of world demand. apart from the uncertainty surrounding China.3 million tonnes. Elsewhere. is facing restrictions on pig meat trade in some markets. While growing. reduced availability in the United States.5 percent. Pork and poultry producers struggle with high feed costs 2002-2004=100 280 Ratio 1. are anticipated to increase by 0. Shipments from Belarus are also set to increase. An outbreak of the H7N3 strain in Mexico in April is also causing concern. aided by improved prices and a reduction in feed costs. and thus may also see a decline in sales. Moderate growth in shipments by smaller scale exporting countries will go some way to counterbalance reduced exports by the main trading countries. where output may rise by 8 percent. Continued rapid expansion is forecast for India. a 1. Furthermore. Trade slows Poultry. in contrast with the 2. Unlike bovine and pig meat. is anticipated to cut purchases by 2. when trade is forecast to increase by 1. where shipments are anticipated to fall by 10 percent. due to growth in purchases by Saudi 45 5 . the main importing region. the most traded category of meat. the EU and Canada – which account for 75 percent of world trade – is expected to constrain sales. Estimating 2013 output for China – currently the second largest producer. are expected to fall for a second year: after being down by 4 percent in 2012. Elsewhere.6 percent increase in output is anticipated as production has recovered from the 2012 slump. Among the top 20 producing countries. Market M a rket assessments Figure 3. Sales by non-traditional exporters.3 230 1.7 percent in response to oversupply and associated reduced prices stemming from a sharp increase in production in 2012 and a subsequent build-up of stocks. the United States and Canada are anticipated to maintain purchases at a similar level to last year.5 percent to 13. Shipments are anticipated to fall by 4 percent to 7. Although the volume of sales doubled over the past decade. the Russian Federation. Brazil and the Russian Federation.

are forecast to grow by over 15 percent. have had little expansion in sales in recent years. and is forecast to rise 1. as income growth strengthens demand. and concerns over avian influenza that have led to decreased consumption in China. to 13. Demand rising in China and the Near East Import demand for ovine meat is expected to register a second strong year.2 percent. abundant domestic supplies in Japan and the Republic of Korea. Australia is anticipated to record the strongest growth in sales. although those of New Zealand are also expected to grow substantially. Developing countries account for three-quarters of output. Imports by the Federation remain at less than half what they were in the mid-2000s. amid stable domestic demand. including Venezuela and Chile. especially from Iraq. with the largest producers in this grouping being China. A shift in market demand to China and the Near East is also leading to a change in the type of meat shipped. increasing by 6 percent. Shipments from Thailand to the EU are forecast to rise vigorously. but will also encompass the EU and a number of countries in the Near East. Angola. Benin. Chile. India. Turkey. Government investments are supporting record Argentine exports. The most important trading countries. a rising trend in medium-sized exporting countries’ trade is discernible. including Thailand. Subdued import demand and reduced margins are expected to restrain overall world poultry exports. South Africa. supported by competitive pricing and EU’s lifting of an eight-year AI-induced ban on fresh and chilled products. In the EU. Output in Australia is anticipated to register a particularly strong rise – increasing by 10 percent. However. Among the main importing countries. as a result of high production costs and limited returns to producers. Ghana and Egypt are all anticipated to purchase more. imports for Africa as a whole are forecast to show strong growth in 2013. Jordan and Qatar. in 2013. Instead. This pattern is expected to be maintained for 2013. are expected to curb imports. exports from Turkey. the United States and the EU. with a movement towards whole carcasses. because of a considerable increase in domestic production. Sudan and Nigeria. Of the two countries. the longterm decline in output is expected to continue. ovine meat is an important element in the markets of many countries in North Africa and the Near East. Most of the increase is anticipated to come from China.June 2 2013 013 Arabia. following a period of stagnation. which together account for almost three-quarters of global trade. Brazil. the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan. the Ukraine and Belarus. including Saudi Arabia. Rising poultry production within the European Union could lead to reduced purchases in 2013. Almost 90 percent of world trade is supplied by Australia and New Zealand. combined with FMD-induced high beef prices. growing by over 6 percent to 850 000 tonnes in 2013. with the exception of China. the main production growth is expected to come from Australia and New Zealand. Argentina. Furthermore. In Egypt. 4 46 . most growth has come from second-tier exporters. which have benefited from a rising regional demand. while imports by Mexico and Canada are anticipated to change little.Food F o od Outlook . in part due to the recent customs agreement with Ukraine and Belarus. OVINE MEAT Production rising steadily Production of ovine meat continues to show modest growth. particularly to regional markets. Iraq. as opposed to a preference for only the higher value cuts which characterizes the markets of the EU and the United States. among others. however. China. culling associated with avian influenza. will provide an additional stimulus to imports. Vietnam. Satisfactory pasture conditions have set the basis for flock rebuilding for many of the major producing areas of Asia and Africa. Likewise. Deliveries to the Russian Federation in 2013 are expected to increase moderately.8 million tonnes. Compared to other regions. including offal. In developed countries.

almost the same level as the historical peak in late 2007. spot prices for New Zealand dairy products moved ahead sharply. caused a reduction in milk production and in the processing of dairy products. butter by USD 1 175 per tonne. the international market 47 7 . This led farmers to Figure 1. The main cause of the leap in prices was a steep fall-off in New Zealand’s milk production. they still maintained elevated levels substantially above 2012. Consequently. or 38 percent. Nevertheless. Thus. or 69 percent. FAO international dairy price index (2002-2004=100) 350 250 150 50 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 The index is derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally traded dairy products. and almost non-existent elsewhere. particularly for milk powders. Even with the reduction. in turn. particularly in March and April. The FAO Dairy Price Index reached 259 points in April. and cheddar cheese by USD 975 per tonne or 27 percent. Whole milk powder (WMP) has risen by USD 2 210 per tonne or 74 percent.MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS Major Dairy Exporters and Importers Market M a rket assessments Major Exporters Major Importers PRICES International prices surge in the face of limited availability International prices of dairy products registered strong growth during the first part of the year. skimmed milk powder (SMP) by USD 1 930 per tonne. With publicly-financed inventories at minimal levels in the EU and the United States. dry-off or cull milk cows early which. much of the tenor of the international market for the remainder of the year will depend on how Oceania shapes up in the new season. the scale of the jump in prices reflected the absence of commercial stocks able to cater for an unexpected reduction in availability. before dropping to 250 in May. prices are still substantially above a year ago. Although prices fell back in May. as buyers bid against each other for limited supplies. as production in exporting countries in this region will barely increase. due to an abnormally prolonged dry period at the start of the year. New Zealand’s output for the 2012/2013 (JuneMay) production year is projected to finish only slightly below the previous season – which itself was a record. rather than a more profound shortage of world supplies. particularly for milk powder compared to May 2012. A further easing in dairy prices is anticipated during the coming months as milk production moves into full swing in the Northern Hemisphere.

3 72. Overall. (%) FAO DAIRY PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 105. spurred by steady growth in consumer demand.3 Change: Jan-May 2013 over Jan-May 2012 % 221 189 227 17.3 million tonnes to 139 million tonnes: per capita milk consumption is estimated to have grown by almost 30 percent in the past decade. Pakistan and Turkey. EU intervention prices.1 2.4 -0.4 53. For Central America.7 238. The Republic of Korea is slowly recovering from the 2011 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak which required the slaughter of 8 percent of its dairy herd and led to a corresponding drop in milk production. price) SMP Refund Butter (export price) Butter (interv. In South Africa. South American milk production is foreseen to expand by 3 percent in 2013. Rising incomes and firm regional and international demand have favoured dairy production growth in several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. while India’s population increased by 17. In Africa. 2013 f’cast Change: 2013 over 2012 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Total milk production Total trade 745.4 54.1 6. where milk production has been running below 2012 levels as producers struggle to remain profitable. forecast to rise by 5. is an important engine in the development of India’s milk production.6 percent from 2001 to 2011. Increased output is also anticipated in China. as India is largely absent from the international dairy markets.1 7. In Argentina. Expansion in output is anticipated for Algeria. milk output has stagnated in the past two years. where government policies in support of dairy development and an expansion of processing capacity have contributed to the increase. Ecuador and Uruguay.9 7. price and export refund for butter and skim milk powder Euro per tonne 4500 3000 1500 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 SMP (export price) SMP (interv.9 74. a rate similar to 2012. expansion in herd size.0 75. This dynamic domestic demand is providing the main impetus for growth.1 0. a fall in maize prices may provide some respite for the remainder of the year. For East Africa overall. is expected to be constrained by chronically dry to drought Figure 2.7 % 2. The overall positive outlook has stimulated investment in new technology and improved animal genetics. Additionally. Asia is expected to account for most of the increase.9 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) Developed (kg/yr) Developing (kg/yr) Trade share of prod. In addition to rising domestic demand. For Kenya. In Uganda. in addition to a rise in productivity. price) Butter Refund 4 48 . will reduce overall demand. Chile. in the face of falling domestic demand and limitations on exports – with no growth foreseen in 2013. Gains are forecast for Brazil. milk output in Mexico. as seen so far this year.7 767.7 2011 107. and which may become a common feature in the future. the common way of retailing milk. Uganda and Tanzania. most South American countries had very good pasture conditions during the 2012/2013 production year. although there has been substantial investment in new processing capacity. the world’s largest milk producing country.0 2013 Jan-May 1. to 72 million tonnes. World dairy market at a glance 2011 2012 estim. restocking in the conflict-affected northern parts of the country has also aided growth. a number of these countries stand to benefit from the prevailing elevated prices for dairy products in both regional and international markets. the largest producer in the subregion.0 2012 108. it is unclear whether the January introduction of a ban on the sale of raw milk.2 1.2 percent to 784 million tonnes – a similar rate to recent years. a moderate increase in milk output is anticipated for 2013. assisted by overall favourable weather conditions. a good start to the rainy season has assisted pasture growth in Kenya.Food F o od Outlook .6 237.7 235. PRODUCTION World milk production to show steady growth in 2013 World milk production in 2013 is forecast to grow by 2.0 remains exposed to sudden changes in milk production and availability of milk products. Unlike in many countries. with output in India.5 49. Morocco and Uganda.June 2 2013 013 Table 1.7 784.

Production in Costa Rica is expected to show a moderate increase. milk production in the United States is forecast to increase by only 0. itself a record. In North America. government incentives are provided to promote farm-level efficiency and the use of modern technology. In Oceania. following declines in 2010 and 2011. with the short-fall for the Union overall being around 5 percent. Hungary and Bulgaria. 2013 f’cast thousand tonnes WHOLE MILK POWDER World New Zealand EU* Argentina Australia SKIM MILK POWDER World EU* United States New Zealand Australia BUTTER World New Zealand EU* Belarus United States Australia CHEESE World European Union* Saudi Arabia New Zealand United States Egypt Australia 2 229 645 231 269 170 160 163 2 583 776 341 306 262 111 163 2 658 815 350 317 254 100 170 848 420 142 69 51 60 898 463 127 82 50 53 923 460 137 90 55 65 1 502 376 356 371 146 1 827 523 445 390 168 1 853 497 432 400 190 2 155 959 432 159 121 2 437 1 261 388 201 109 2 464 1 350 350 180 99 * Excluding trade between the EU Member States. both Australia and New Zealand experienced prolonged hot. the Market M a rket assessments Figure 3. Milk production in the Russian Federation is anticipated to show a second year of modest increase in 2013.conditions in many parts of the country. the experience of recent years has shown that most countries have failed to fully utilise their quota. lingering from 2012. in the case of Ireland. which led to a sharp fall-off in milk production. producers have faced similar challenges in maintaining profitability in the face of increases in the cost of feed and reduced prices for milk. In Europe. Sustained dry conditions. within the limits set by the milk quota system. supported by improved profitability and a concomitant slowing in dairy herd contraction. and excessively wet. however. sustained high prices for dairy products on the international market and associated levels of profitability have stimulated the dairy sector. output was running 6 percent ahead of the 2011/12 season. EU milk production is forecast to remain unchanged in 2013 at 156 million tonnes. EU production quotas were raised by 1 percent in April. Output within the EU suffered from exceptionally bad weather conditions in some areas in 2012. Major exporters of dairy products 2009-11 Average 2012 prelim. In New Zealand. but subsequently plummeted. From 2007: EU-27 49 9 . as in the case of the neighbouring EU. Furthermore. as affected producers had to purchase high-priced grains and concentrate. have affected pastures in central and western parts of the country. dry weather at the start of 2013. however. up until January. during the first part of the year. leading to herd reduction and the withdrawal of a number of small-scale producers from the industry. In both countries. which coincided with falling milk prices. as well as yields of feed grains grown on-farm. subsequent to a prolonged period of decline. This raised the cost of milk production. the United Kingdom and northern France – both had a negative impact on grass production for silage. as improved milk yields per cow continue to compensate for reduced cow numbers. Production in Canada is set to remain stable at 8.5 million tonnes. In neighbouring Ukraine and Belarus.5 million tonnes. especially in Romania. It was both unusually dry. however. FAO indices of dairy and feed prices (2002-2004=100) 300 250 200 150 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Dairy price index Feed price index Table 2.7 percent to 91. a prolonged unfavourable milk/feed price ratio has caused some farmers to cut back on output and may lead to a reduction in cow numbers. milk production is on an upward trend. As a result. in preparation for their abolition in 2015.

Demand for WMP is very geographically diverse.Food F o od Outlook . Demand remains firm and. cool and wet weather. has led to a substantial rise in prices during the first part of the year. In 2013. such as whey powder.5 percent to 1.5 million tonnes. Japan. Elsewhere in Asia. including the potential for substitution. A number of significant milk powder importing countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. as restricted milk supplies and a move into producing other milk products are expected to curb WMP export availability from the EU. Venezuela and Brazil. although processors may also seek to utilize lower value ingredients. but the level of their imports is not expected to rise. Conversely. stimulated by strong demand for butter and cheese. In Australia. Abundant rain in April helped pastures re-establish themselves and set the basis for a reasonable start to the 2013/2014 season. Vietnam and Thailand should also remain important markets. Asia will continue to be the main market for dairy products. As for the exporters. the above six countries supply 85 percent of the international WMP market. herd rebuilding in both Australia and New Zealand was temporarily suspended in 2012/2013. In Brazil. the elevated cost of imported products will provide a fillip to domestic milk production in many countries. As a group. the Philippines. the Islamic Republic of Iran. accounting for some 54 percent of world imports. For imports. Australia and Argentina. only to experience widespread hot and dry conditions at the start of 2013. TRADE Trade to grow in 2013. The principal importers that may be affected include Egypt. including Mexico. SMP prices have risen alongside 5 50 . stemming from its wide use in both the processing industry and for direct retail sale.June 2 2013 013 current season is expected close slightly down. processing industries which rely on imports are likely to seek means of substituting less expensive ingredients. rising by 1.9 percent. and the countries may see imports reduced as a result of budgetary restrictions. the Republic of Korea. social programmes are an important driving force behind demand. such as whey powder or vegetable fat. As a consequence of the unfavourable climatic conditions. Whole milk powder (WMP) – Prices surge on supply concerns World exports of WMP are projected to register only a small increase 2013. for 2012/13. In the face of tight export availability. Indonesia. as limited growth in milk production and strong demand cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future availability of milk products. Algeria and Libya. Consequently. some lower income countries and those that purchase milk products for social programmes may reduce the scale of their acquisitions in the light of elevated prices. at 19. increased purchases are expected for the United Arab Emirates. New Zealand. at 9. Saudi Arabia. milk output is forecast to be moderately lower than the previous season. Saudi Arabia and Oman. Belarus and Uruguay will supply most of the increase in trade. in the context of limited supplies. rising domestic production could lead to imports being displaced.7 million tonnes of milk equivalent. In this context. which are second and third. respectively in terms of world imports. imports are expected to rise in China. but limited export availability drives up international dairy prices World trade in dairy products is expected to continue to expand in 2013 sustained by strong import demand.6 million tonnes. the main market. In general. and contrasting with an average annual increase of 11 percent for the previous three years. Elsewhere in Asia. in Algeria and Venezuela. the United Arab Emirates. rising by 1 percent to 2. where possible. where possible. Skim milk powder (SMP) – Prices also up markedly Trade in SMP is anticipated to record limited growth in 2013. exporting countries will have to strike a delicate balance between maintaining core markets and pursuing long-term market development. although supply limitations are anticipated to place a brake on growth. Furthermore. This compares with average annual growth of 6 percent in the previous three years. Consequently. imports by the Russian Federation are anticipated to increase. compared with an average of 7 percent in recent years. for recombination. trade is forecast to grow by 1. Finally. while those of the United States are forecast to be unchanged. some importers in North Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean may limit or reduce purchases in the face of elevated prices.9 million tonnes. the 2012/13 milk year opened with less than favourable. to reach 54. International prices are expected to remain at elevated levels until at least the latter part of 2013. Sustained demand is forecast for Asia. China is expected to retain its position as the principal importer of WMP and may see further expansion in purchases.3 million tonnes. and adjusting their product mix to ensure maximum returns. High international prices will lead many countries to re-evaluate their import needs. However. Elevated international prices are projected to reduce imports by Africa as a whole. Malaysia and Oman. may also see purchases constrained by high prices.

those of WMP. as a result 51 1 . Saudi Arabia. which are destined mainly for reconstitution and other processing and. four importers. Current high prices have created the opportunity for greater EU and United States participation in the international marketplace – as they have the possibility of drawing upon the substantial supplies available in their respective domestic markets. New Zealand. the Republic of Korea and Iraq. SMP is central to the milk processing industry in many countries and. Trade in cheese is forecast to grow by 3 percent in 2013. based on increased sales by the EU. Additionally. should the current high prices continue. as processors in the main exporting countries struggle to balance strong international demand for dairy products with limited supplies of milk. imports by the Russian Federation may decline. Japan. China has substantially increased purchases in recent years. although this would be less than the increment for 2012. purchases by this group of countries reflect import quotas under trade agreements and also the highly specific nature of some cheeses. Even in the case of a generic cheese. both for direct consumption and for use by the processing industry. however. Conversely. A new development. Butter – Follows the milk powders higher Trade in butter is forecast to grow by 2. the Russian Federation. New Zealand and Australia. first evidenced in 2012. not including the substantial amount of cheese that is traded among the EU countries themselves. the Philippines and Malaysia. focuses more on industrial cheese. Saudi Arabia. the United States. this will inevitably affect the level of purchases. the EU is both an important butter importer (ranking fourth) and exporter (ranking second). Indonesia. although each market has its specific requirements and preferences. Purchases by most of the main importing countries – the Russian Federation. much will depend on the coming season’s milk production in Oceania. the rate of increase is expected to be less than in recent years. Mexico. For 2013. Another group of the most significant importing countries. Japan. Switzerland. account for almost 45 percent of purchases. Indonesia. thus. China. The international cheese market is the most difficult dairy market to classify. Market M a rket assessments Cheese – Less volatile than other dairy commodities Among the dairy commodities.7 million tonnes. sustained by robust import demand. Australia. as such. Vietnam. Egypt. consumer preference and the use of branding mean that prices are not as volatile as for milk powder and butter fat. the United States and Saudi Arabia. Egypt and Thailand. as manufacturers juggle with finite milk supplies. Sales by New Zealand are foreseen to remain close to last year’s. Augmented purchases are also possible by (in order of volume) Mexico. the EU. the country remains the world’s predominant supplier of butter. which includes the Russian Federation. market demand is widespread. Under current market conditions. Demand for butter imports comes principally from Southeast Asia. including those with restrictions on the use of their names and areas of origin. the Islamic Republic of Iran and China – may increase in 2013. differences in taste. Saudi Arabia. Overall demand is expected to remain firm in these markets. while those of the EU are anticipated to be unchanged. and given the scale of India’s domestic dairy industry. by 13 000 tonnes. Algeria. although. Belarus. the Middle East and the Russian Federation. Australia and Switzerland. Most often. However. One apparent anomaly is that a number of major cheese producing and exporting countries are also important importers. Over 80 percent of world exports are supplied by (in order of volume) the EU. in particular. China. Belarus.7 percent in 2013. accounting for half of trade. the United States. to 2. to 923 000 tonnes. followed by the Russian Federation. Argentina. Overall. cheddar cheese was least affected by the surge in international prices for milk products. supplying 30 percent of world trade. as SMP production in the EU and the United States is anticipated to decrease as emphasis is placed on the production of other milk products. Uruguay and Turkey. Australia and the United States. is India’s largerscale participation as an exporter of SMP – supplying neighbouring Bangladesh and markets in the Near East and North Africa. Supplies of SMP to the world market are expected to be constrained. the Ukraine. The principal markets are (in order of volume) Mexico. are not generally visible to the individual consumer. Algeria and Malaysia. At the same time. Egypt. including (in order of volume) the United States. of trading agreements. as with many other milk products. Other important exporters are Saudi Arabia. is anticipated to increase imports substantially. there would be potential to expand its SMP exports during 2013. as more emphasis is being placed on using milk for WMP and cheese production. The EU remains the major cheese exporter.

The FAO Fish Price Index (2002-2004=100) 180 155 130 105 80 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 FAO total fish price index Aquaculture Total Data source: Norwegian Seafood Council Capture total the direction of international prices and import volumes of fish and fishery products in 2013 remains unclear. Figure 1. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean to meet growing domestic demand. Tilapia demand in Europe and North America remains stable with good supplies from China.June 2 2013 013 FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS Major Exporters and Importers of Fish and Fishery Products Major Exporters Major Importers GLOBAL FISH ECONOMY IN 2013 Overview The lingering economic crisis in the major seafood importing markets of northern Europe and North America has contributed to generally sluggish growth in seafood imports. which is positive for salmon producers. Weak demand for seabass and seabream in key markets and credit problems in southern Europe encouraged some producers to harvest early. As a result. mid-season quota adjustments and major incidences of disease in aquaculture facilities have contributed to supply uncertainty. Strong salmon demand. in 2013. Abundant supplies of cod and a parallel drop in cod prices in European markets have had negative effects on cod fishers and producers who find cod farming less profitable. demand for tuna remains strong in the US and EU. Fluctuating wild catch landings. Canned tuna prices are expected to remain stable in the face of low supply relative to demand. A combination of chronic disease in Southeast Asian shrimp farms and low wild shrimp catches continue to put upward pressure on shrimp prices. although gradually. while farmed tilapia production has expanded in some developing countries in Asia. implies a structural shift in consumer demand.Food F o od Outlook . resulting in smaller-sized fish reaching the markets. Cephalopod prices have stabilized. The situation remains difficult in the mackerel fishery due to overcapacity of fishing fleets and the recent failure to regulate the South 5 52 . and price is expected to rise. although with some exceptions where demand for specific products has remained strong. the main producer. despite falling or weak demand in key markets of Europe and Japan. namely salmon and tuna. Mackerel demand increased in response to the lower prices last season. Despite record high prices. despite rising salmon prices.

6 45.3 30.2 41.9 53.2 41.0 45.9 18.6 57.2 4.1 30.4 4.7 3. GLOBEFISH 154 1 145 156 7.5 14.8 7.4 277.1 20.9 47.8 70.6 556.9 9.4 62.6 72.6 849.1 202. Disease stands as a major issue for the shrimp market in the coming year.9 5.2 203.9 187.0 627.8 20. coupled with strong demand in European and Asian markets.0 156.2 44.5 15.8 39.5 35.6 59.7 9.5 24. which could lead to rising prices in the main import markets.9 44.7 202.4 2012 19.1 40.8 161.8 3.3 772.2 47.2 4.0 15.1 31.2 156.3 India Viet Nam China Mexico Malaysia Honduras Guyana Peru Nicaragua Panama 18. News that a research team at the University of Arizona has identified the pathogen causing the syndrome may pave the way for a recovery of the Southeast Asian shrimp industry.2 646.8 35.8 185.2 9.6 9.1 203.2 35.7 29.2 31.9 24.8 33.7 9.5 534.3 6.9 40.3 80.3 8.0 4.4 646.8 74.4 56. 53 3 .5 8.2 68.4 3.2 48.6 41. a continuation of EMS problems experienced across Southeast Asian – from China to Malaysia – in 2012 EMS affected 80 percent of shrimp Total intra imports Total extra imports Source: GLOBEFISH farms in the Mekong Delta with a major impact on Vietnamese producers.5 74.5 243.2 32.4 644.1 42.8 61.3 10. Scallop catch levels in the United States for 2013 are expected to drop by 30–35 percent.4 43.1 202.0 -7.4 48.5 30.1 57.3 8.1 80.2 38.5 9.7 Table 3.8 39.7 127.4 53.5 5.Market M a rket assessments Table 1.6 181.5 128. World fish market at a glance 2011 2012 estim.9 9.4 41.1 59.9 7.9 31. On the other hand.3 61.1 44.7 54. (thousand tonnes) Ecuador Greenland India Argentina Thailand Denmark Bangladesh Netherlands China Viet Nam Canada Spain Belgium Others Grand Total 70.7 23.9 9.0 61.8 9.1 20.3 4.2 231.2 822.7 135.4 0.0 27.8 30.3 59.5 19.1 41.8 590.4 21.4 40.0 70.4 215.8 34.1 52.5 13.5 2.9 182.8 83.1 63.8 Jan-May 2.9 0.3 3.4 847.7 15. Shrimp imports EU-27 (by country of origin) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Data source: Norwegian Seafood Council Pacific jack mackerel fishery.6 2.0 28.5 161.9 57.4 3.2 2.8 73.9 576.8 43.2 131.1 23.5 1.6 39.9 23.5 62.5 4.1 9.6 74.2 7.1 18.7 39.2 49.8 57.0 2011 19.0 30. Shrimp farmers in Thailand sustained heavy losses due to early mortality syndrome (EMS).2 66.7 90.4 8.5 36. Shrimp imports USA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (thousand tonnes) Thailand Ecuador Indonesia 188.5 635.2 60.4 23.4 3.5 25.0 37.2 57.8 46.1 65.3 59.2 47.5 43.8 24.1 5.3 84.4 552.1 2.6 175.0 40.9 50.4 156.0 81.9 3.5 68.8 7.2 65. Oyster prices are expected to remain strong in 2013.8 55.9 92.2 91.3 38.7 8.8 187.2 192.7 2.0 8. 2013 f’cast Change: 2013 over 2012 Table 2.3 19.3 48.5 4.2 27.5 850.3 65.7 26.3 39. firm consumer demand for carnivorous fish (which feed on other fish species) and shrimp continue to support fish oil prices.3 10.8 18.0 61.7 5.8 136. Pressure on fishmeal prices remained strong in 2012 as a result of South American supply constraints in an El Niño year.7 13.8 25.3 42.1 560.6 42.7 97.1 81.1 45.4 6.4 23. after more than doubling over the last three years. Despite the economic crisis.2 130.7 29.9 8.6 22.3 48.9 REVIEW BY FISH PRODUCT Shrimp Shrimp prices continue to rise.0 38.4 Change: Jan-May2013 over Jan-May2012 % Bangladesh Others TOTAL 2013 Source: NMFS.9 564.1 16.1 32.0 0.7 million tonnes WORLD BALANCE Production Capture fisheries Aquaculture Trade value (exports USD billion) Trade volume (live weight) Total utilization Food Feed Other uses SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: Food fish (kg/yr) From capture fisheries (kg/year) From aquaculture (kg/year) FAO FISH PRICE INDEX 1 (2002-2004=100) % 156.6 69.2 140.2 93. given expectations of lower supplies due to delays in the start of the season in Southeast Asia.3 814. which is the world’s largest fishery.1 7.8 19.6 13.

With the EU’s new Generalized System of Preferences to be implemented in January 2014. India. the future for US demand is uncertain. making for uncertain demand and supply conditions in 2013. a major import market. Price pressure from low global supply has been slightly offset by the weak yen impacting Japanese import demand. at 15. CFR prices frozen skipjack (Thailand and Africa) USD per tonne 2400 the industry also has to overcome the problem of the presence of high levels of the antioxidant ethoxyquin used in fishmeal fed to shrimp. Shrimp prices (16-20 count) in main wholesale markets USD Billion 15 pressure on prices. causing uncertainty about the future of shrimp prices in 2013. mainly in anticipation of the spring festival in April/ May. especially the United States and EU-27. The main EU markets. This price rise will likely put further strain on EU import demand and negatively impact Argentine shrimp producers. the combination of chronic disease in farms and low wild catches will continue to put upward 1900 1400 900 400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Thailand Africa Figure 4. mostly from Spain. Spain and Italy. However. import volumes are expected to fall in all major markets.4 percent respectively. CFR prices canned tuna (USA and Europe) USD per carton 50 40 30 20 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Europe United States 5 54 . have resulted in quarantine of shrimp from Viet Nam and India and restricted their exports to Japan. saw sharp drops in demand.Food F o od Outlook . Given the recent decision by the US International Trade Commission to investigate shrimp production in seven countries. The supply of vannamei and black tiger shrimp from Indian farmers is also expected to be lower due to conservative production decisions and the lack of brood stock. the tariff on Argentine shrimp imports will no longer receive specialized treatment in the EU market and will increase to 12 percent from the current rate of 4. wild shrimp landings along its Pacific coast have been disappointing.June 2 2013 013 Figure 2. White spot disease in Latin America is affecting production. The new Japanese regulations introducing maximum levels of ethoxyquin. In early 2013. namely China. Import demand from the United States and European markets has been sporadic. The United States market for non-canned tuna also remains stable. as countervailing duties and higher import prices could be applied. the EU agreed to increase the annual import quota for pre-cooked tuna loins to 22 000 tonnes from 15 000 tonnes at zero duty for the next three years. In Southeast Asia. European canners.4 percent and 12. Ecuador. Meanwhile. quickly snapped up almost all the allotted duty-free quota in the first quarter of Figure 3.5 percent. despite the high price of USD 2 000 per tonne. Malaysia. Indonesia. Tuna 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 United States EU 27 (intra) EU 27 (extra) Japan The sashimi tuna market in Japan remained firm in early 2013. Thailand and Viet Nam.

2013, mainly for supplies from Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Indonesia and the Philippines. Evidence shows that the record high tuna prices are not hindering import demand in the major markets. However, frozen yellow fin tuna steaks and loins treated with carbon monoxide (CO) and exported to the US market could face a tariff charge in the future, if US Customs reclassifies CO-treated tuna as a prepared or preserved product. If so, the tariff would escalate from the current zero tariff for raw fish or fillets up to 12.5 percent, with negative effects on imports. Tuna supplies to Asian canners are down this year, leading to rising prices for canned tuna. The US remains the largest buyer of Thai canned tuna, despite the fact that US canned tuna imports had fallen over the years and remain flat, as does EU imports. Eco-labeled canned tuna, indicating pole-and-line fisheries and absence of fish aggregating devices (FAD-free fishing), are expected to become available in European and North American supermarkets later this year. This may lead to a rebound in demand for canned tuna in these eco-friendly markets, although overall volumes from pole-and-line fisheries are limited. EU importers are also looking for alternative suppliers of canned tuna with lower import duties. For example, ACP countries such as Mauritius, Cote d’Ivoire and Papua New Guinea can export to the EU at zero tariffs. Canned tuna prices are expected to remain strong in the face of low supply relative to demand.

Market M a rket assessments

Figure 5. CFR prices groundfish blocks (USA)

USD per lb. 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Cod fillets Alaska Pollack fillets

Hake fillets

Figure 6. Prices of seabass and seabream in Italy, origin Greece
Euro per kg. 7

6

5

Groundfish
Abundant supplies of cod and falling prices in European markets have boded badly for fishermen and cod farmers who find that cod farming is becoming less profitable. While the increasing supply may be a sign of successful management of cod catch fisheries, it could also indicate the need for structural adjustments in the cod industry to reach a stable equilibrium in the market. From an optimistic point of view, it could also present an opportunity to market white fish as an alternate meat, given its relatively lower price, and to increase overall consumption of white fish. Hake prices are following cod in a downward trend, along with other substitute white fish. Haddock prices, currently lower than cod, are likely to catch up as haddock landings are not expected to increase in the near future.
4

3 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Seabream

Seabass

Seabass and seabream
Weak demand for seabass and seabream in key markets and credit problems encouraged some producers to harvest early, resulting in smaller sized fish reaching the markets. This has implications for future supplies and may put upward pressure on prices in 2013. This price pressure is in addition

to normal price rises for seabass and seabream in spring and early summer due to the natural growth cycle of the species. Greece and Italy are integral players in the production and distribution chain of seabass and seabream, and the current economic climate in Southern Europe is squeezing credit available to producers, importers and distributers. Under these circumstances, Turkey has an opportunity to emerge as a major supplier. Although import demand is growing in Russia, the UK and the US, this has not been enough to offset falling demand in traditional markets of Southern Europe, and may lead farmers to cut future production.

Cephalopods
The lingering effects of the global economic crisis are impacting sales of cephalopods in Europe, where imports

55 5

Food F o od Outlook - June 2 2013 013

are down. Squid prices in Europe declined significantly towards the end of 2012 and remain stagnant in 2013. Squid prices in Japan remain stable, despite low inventories of squid in cold storage. Octopus prices have stabilized in the European and Japanese markets and this stability is expected to continue. Cuttlefish prices in Japan remain high.

prices are expected to remain high. Some added supply is foreseen for the second half of the year, but it will be less than previously expected, due to production problems in Chile and Norway.

Small pelagics
Recent changes in mackerel migratory patterns in the waters of Iceland and Greenland have contributed to ongoing disputes over quota allocations among Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Norway and the EU. Recent negotiations to regulate the South Pacific jack mackerel, the world’s largest fishery, also failed. Major quota reductions anticipated in 2013 will lead to reduced supplies of mackerel and rising prices. Fishmeal producers, expressing concern about sustainability of the Peruvian anchovy fishery, are calling for reduced quotas in 2013. Herring exports from Norway, the main supplier of frozen herring and herring fillets, fell 50 percent between 2010 and 2012. Expectations of further reductions in herring supplies will put further pressure on the already high prices.

Pangasius
Global production of pangasius will most likely slow as a result of problems facing Viet Nam, the world’s largest producer, where the current market price is below farm costs and falling ex-farm prices. Viet Nam has shifted its policy from increasing farming areas to focusing on more efficient and sustainable farm management. The introduction of improved traceability systems should have a positive long-term impact on Viet Nam’s exports. Pangasius demand remains mixed, with slow import growth in the Americas, stable imports in Asian markets and declining imports in Europe. The latter is somewhat surprising, given the competitive pricing of pangasius. However it could indicate that the extreme focus on prices may have hurt the image of the product.

Fishmeal and fish oil
Pressure on fishmeal prices remained strong in 2012 as a result of Latin American supply constraints in an El Niño year coupled with strong demand in European and especially Asian markets. Fishmeal prices reached high levels not seen since the first quarter of 2010 and carried

Tilapia
China remains the world’s largest producer of tilapia and the largest supplier to the European market. Tilapia production continues to interest some countries in Africa, Asia and Latin American for supplying emerging domestic demand. European demand for freshwater fillets is currently stable but expected to increase over time. US imports of tilapia, especially frozen fillets, increased in 2012 after a low season in 2011, but dipped again slightly during the first quarter of 2013. As the biggest market for Chinese tilapia, the US absorbed 60 percent of Chinese exports in 2012. Availability of certified tilapia as of August 2012 is projected to stimulate demand for tilapia fillets in European and North American markets where consumer demand for private certification of seafood products is on the rise. As expected, seasonal Asian demand for tilapia peaked in spring 2013 for Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations and Lent celebrations in the Philippines.

Table 4. Production farmed salmon: World
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*

(thousand tonnes) ATLANTIC SALMON Norway Chile UK Canada Faeroe Is. Australia Ireland USA Others Total PACIFIC SALMON 743 389 129 104 39 25 10 17 1 1 457 863 233 133 100 51 30 12 14 5 1 441 955 135 145 115 45 31 15 17 2 1 460 990 200 155 115 52 31 15 16 2 1 576 1075 310 160 120 60 31 15 16 3 1 790 1050 330 155 115 60 31 15 15 3 1 774

Salmon
Despite a 13 percent increase in farmed Atlantic and Pacific salmon production between 2011 and 2012, salmon prices continue to recover from the very low levels reached in 2011. Strong demand in the face of rising salmon price implies a structural shift in consumer demand, which is good news for salmon producers. Production is expected to increase by only 2–3 percent in 2013, and

Japan Chile Canada New Zealand Total Grand total

13 92 7 9 121 1 578

16 158 5 12 191 1 632

9 155 10 12 186 1 646

8 175 12 12 207 1 783

8 195 12 12 227 2 017

8 210 10 12 240 2 014

Source: GLOBEFISH AN 12201 *Estimate

5 56

over into the first quarter of 2013. Strong global demand for animal feeds for terrestrial livestock helps support fishmeal prices. Fish oil prices have climbed steadily since February 2009 in response to strong growth in demand for both high-value aquaculture and human consumption. Despite the economic crisis, strong consumer demand for carnivorous fish and shrimp continue to support fish oil prices. Although human consumption of fish oil is small as compared with aquaculture utilization, future growth in direct human consumption of fish oils is expected to contribute to rising fish oil demand. Coupled with weak supplies in 2012, fish oil prices are expected to continue to rise in 2013.

Bivalves
Scallop catch levels in the US for 2013 are expected to drop by 30–35 percent, which could see prices rising in the main import markets. In response to decreased US landings, US imports of scallops from Peru are expected to increase in 2013. China is emerging as the new leading market for high-end shellfish products, with Chinese demand for oysters and mussels growing as much as 20 percent per year. Oyster prices are expected to remain strong in 2013, after more than doubling over the last three years.

Market M a rket assessments

Table 5. Production fishmeal: Selected countries
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Figure 7. Oyster prices (Ireland/France)
Euro per kg. 5

(thousand tonnes) Peru/Chile Denmark/Norway Iceland Total 2120 317 135 2 572 2063 302 251 2 616 2039 274 198 2 511 1274 345 146 1 855 2160 256 134 2 607 1302 114 185 1 691

4

Source: IFFO *These figures refer only to IFFO member countries

3

Table 6. Production fishoil: Selected countries
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2

(thousand tonnes) Peru/Chile Denmark/Norway Iceland Total 577 74 46 697 459 93 81 633 410 79 44 532 279 116 69 471 450 92 67 612 325 39 74 444

1 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: IFFO *These figures refer only to IFFO member countries

57 7

SP FE EC AT IA UR L ES .

Nutrients in quinoa.0 0.8 2. Special features Production trends Most quinoa production comes from the Andean region of South America. It can grow in relative humidity varying from 40 percent to 88 percent. 2012).20   0. Ca Iron. DFE Vitamin A.1 7. 1 rice or wheat (except sodium). Mg Phosphorus. Fe Magnesium.0 0.0 0.19 126 288 363 2.10   0.62 0. Its exceptional nutritional value. the United States.2 Wheat (Hard Red Winter) Source: National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference. monounsaturated Protein Fiber.3 12. especially among consumers in developed countries in North America and Europe.0 14.60 23 71 77 7. Bolivia and Peru. The unique characteristics of quinoa Quinoa is the only food crop that contains all the essential amino acids.71 127 210 287 35. and contains large amounts of folate.8 Rice (white)   29 3. rice and wheat. Trade and Markets Division. Na Zinc.57 197 457 563 5.15 0. it is consumed in a similar way to rice and other staple grains. total dietary g g   mg mg mg mg mg mg mg   mg mg mg mg μg IU mg     47 4.06 2. Recognizing the significance of all of these properties in eradicating hunger and malnutrition.0 1.11 7. with Bolivia’s proposal.0 1. and is also gluten-free. Although not a cereal. Although still relatively unknown in many parts of the world. It is also highly water efficient and can produce acceptable yields with rainfall as low as 100–200 mm per year.11 4. Ecuador and Peru who supplied valuable information and data obtained from Ministries of Agriculture and other national sources.63 0.6 14. It also is grown at altitudes from sea level up to 4000 meters.36 0. IU Vitamin E (alpha-tocopherol) Fatty acids. Economist.00 2.0 9. a tribute to a little-known agricultural product with outstanding nutritional and agronomic properties grown almost exclusively in the Andes. make it a potentially important crop from a food security perspective. quinoa has an extraordinary ability to adapt to different climatic conditions and agroecological zones.39 0. Together.39 0.4 7. and at temperatures ranging from -4°C to +35°C (FAO. K Sodium.49 184.2 6. P Potassium.QUINOA (Article by Ekaterina Krivonos.18 0. Quinoa also has a higher content of all important minerals than maize.65   0.37 38. Canada and the European Union imported 30 500 tonnes of quinoa in 2012. the leading suppliers.3 Corn (White)   11 1. three times as much as they did in 2007. quinoa is an annual crop more closely related to beet or spinach. quinoa is becoming increasingly popular in international markets. It is also richer in protein and mono-saturated fat. On the production side.00 2.0 0.0 0.00 1. The author would like to thank the staff of FAO offices in Bolivia.4 1. per 100 g   Minerals Calcium.38 0.52 0. together account for over 90 percent of world production.0 2. Although similar in appearance to cereals.32 1.00 3. USDA 59 9 . trace elements and vitamins.20 3.21   0. combined with its ability to grow in dry conditions and its resilience to climatic conditions. Quinoa has been cultivated as a subsistence crop by indigenous Andean populations for thousands of years. the United Nations General Assembly declared 2013 the International Year of the Quinoa. Table 1. corn. FAO)1 The year 2013 has been declared “International Year of Quinoa” by the United Nations General Assembly. Zn Vitamins Thiamin Riboflavin Niacin Vitamin B-6 Folate.0 Quinoa   7 2.2 11.00 0.3 9.

Bolivia accounted for 45 percent of global quinoa production in 2011. In Ecuador. These countries are already producing quinoa or carrying out research and agronomic trials to establish commercial production of the crop (FAO. to a lesser extent. Other emerging producers include Australia. According to Bolivia’s Ministry of Rural Development and Land. Recently. In 2012. Ministry of Rural Development and Land (Bolivia) and Ministry of Agriculture (Peru). although this very high estimate remains provisional. pending the collection of hard data on areas planted. Asia and Africa have taken up quinoa cultivation in recent years. If confirmed. Assuming no changes in yields. accounting for 23. Germany. Bolivia’s main quinoa producing regions. with several announcing strategic plans and investment programmes for quinoa. However. but now expanding to the western states of California. Production in the country has grown steadily since the mid-1990s. 2011). Since 2011. 1992-2012 Thousand tonnes 60 40 20 0 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 estim. France and Spain) and Africa (Kenya and Mali). most of the crop is grown in the Tarapacá region. 6 60 .Food Outlook . albeit in small volumes. Bolivia has exported approximately half of all the quinoa it produces. Chimborazo Province accounts for 70–80 percent of total output. while La Paz produces the remaining 20 percent. given a lack of firm area and production estimates from remote sensing or other crop monitoring methods. production expanded to central regions. which made the country slide to second place behind Bolivia. quinoa has been cultivated mainly as a subsistence crop by the indigenous populations. with annual growth rates averaging 4. which accounts for 80 percent of national output (Peru Ministry of Agriculture. India. current estimates by the Ministry of Rural Development and Land show the area planted with quinoa in recent years has increased dramatically – from 64 789 ha in the 2010/11 season (the last year for which official figures by the National Statistics Institute of Bolivia are available) to 104 365 ha in 2012/13 – a 61 percent increase over two years. 12 Bolivia Peru Sources: INE (Bolivia). preliminary official estimates put production at 44 207 tonnes. although on a smaller scale. China. Italy. Peru’s quinoa production has expanded at more than 7 percent per year since the mid-1990s. Nevada and Washington. Morocco and the Netherlands. England. Peru reported planting 45 323 ha with quinoa in the 2012/13 season. the numbers for 2012 and 2013 are still tentative. particularly the Puno region. the governments of the main quinoa producing countries in the Andean region have made development of the sector national priorities. the Bolivian government expects quinoa production to increase from 50 566 tonnes in 2012 to 58 040 tonnes in 2013. principally in the Colorado Rockies. Given the expansion in sown area. Denmark. Italy. each produce a 40 percent share of the national quinoa output. declining from 1 448 tonnes in 2011 to an estimated 1 007 tonnes in 2012. and accounted for 48 percent of global production in 2011. Canada. In the traditional producing areas. the 2013 crop could reach 47 772 tonnes. The volume of Ecuador’s quinoa production was estimated at a modest 712 tonnes in 2012.2 percent of production in 2012. The country’s production remains small. especially by women. under climatic conditions similar to the highlands of Bolivia and Peru. In recent years. Most quinoa in Peru is grown in the southern highlands. quinoa cultivation has expanded from South America to the United States and. the crop has been grown on a small scale since the mid-1980s. In Chile. Crop prospects in 2013 and beyond In Bolivia. Oregon. the country’s quinoa output expanded from 38 257 tonnes in 2011 to 50 566 tonnes in 2012. Bolivia would have overtaken Peru as the major quinoa producer. Oruro and Potosí. quinoa output in the country has been gauged at some 3 000 tonnes per year (FAO. Given the nutritional value and strong export potential of quinoa. It was the world’s leading quinoa producer from 1997 to 2011. its exports have grown steadily since 2007. In absence of official data.June 201 2013 13 Chile and Ecuador are also traditional producers. who play a particularly important role in its production and marketing.1 percent above the previous year. 2012) Although most Peruvian quinoa is consumed in the domestic market. Kenya. In the United States. The United States and a few countries in Europe. to Europe (Denmark. 2012). 8. For Figure 1. Quinoa production in Peru and Bolivia.5 percent between 1995 and 2011.

including INE (Bolivia). accounting for about 64 percent of combined exports from Bolivia and Peru in 2012. instance. only 728 tonnes were produced in the United States. the remaining corresponding to Ecuador and the United States. the world’s major quinoa importer. some countries have not reported any quinoa imports in 2012. in 2007. which ranks second. (t)* 1  202 1 448 1 070 n/a 1 100 1 176 1 277 n/a Ecuador Area (ha) Prod. There is some data discrepancy between what countries report as imports from the various origins and what the exporting countries report as exports to the various destinations. by large. Peru’s Ministry of Agriculture launched a strategic plan for quinoa production for the period 2013-2021 and is projecting to put 64 000 ha under quinoa by 2016. Mexico nor Uruguay reported quinoa imports. quinoa was introduced in the international trade nomenclature only in 2012. grew sixfold: from USD13. Peru’s quinoa shipments increased from 1 347 tonnes. In the same period. However. neither Ecuador. valued at USD1.8 million to boost quinoa production. Ministry of Rural Development and Land (Bolivia). Based on data from FAOSTAT and Global Trade Atlas (GTA). As a result. If these re-exports are not considered.. The same year. Prior to 2012. ** projections Sources: FAOSTAT and official data from national sources. while exporting countries recorded their quinoa exports using their national customs classification. followed by Peru with 26 percent. shipping 8 percent of the world export estimate in 2012.8 million. especially from 2005 to 2012. in 2012.9 million. (t) 897 816 712 n/a Area (ha) 36 176 37 825 41 941 45 323 Peru Prod. the European Union. when it was assigned a separate six digit code in the Harmonized System. tonnes*   Bolivia Ecuador 2007 10 585 331 1 347 12 263 2008 10 429 118 2 096 12 643 2009 14 522 46 2 652 17 220 2010 15 519 38 4 763 20 320 2011 20 366 100 8 020 28 486 2012 25 899 460 10 275 36 634 Evolution in global trade and prices Until the year 2000.50 tonnes per hectare. the regional government announced in April 2013 an investment of USD1. when they grew eightfold. Area planted and production of quinoa in the Andean countries   2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13** 63 010 64 789 96 544 104 365 Bolivia Area (ha) Prod. of the 3 356 tonnes exported (mostly to Canada). and to raise annual production from the 712 tonnes reported in 2012 to 6 818 tonnes by 2018.1 million to USD78. world exports have expanded rapidly.3 from approximately 5 000 tonnes in 2005 to 40 256 tonnes in 2012. valued at USD29. (t) 41 079 41 182 44 207 47 772 Special features * The estimate for Chile is obtained by applying 2007 yield level to the annual area planted. Since then. Ministry of Agriculture (Ecuador) and Ministry of Agriculture (Peru). with an average annual growth in export earnings of 76 percent. In 2012. To estimate global exports we use export data from the main producing countries. Bolivia’s major producing region. with the remaining corresponding to re-exported quinoa. Ecuador’s Ministry of Agriculture also put forward an ambitious plan to expand the area cultivated from the estimated 1 500 ha to 10 000 ha in five years. It also expects yields to increase from 1. exporter statistics appear to be more consistent and reliable. Bolivia and Peru supplied approximately 96 percent of the global market in 2012. took 19 percent of overall shipments from Bolivia and Peru. The United States is. at less than 2 000 tonnes per year. the value of quinoa exports 2 Peru Subtotal Andean countries United States Other Total           3 356 266 40 256 * No data are available for the countries other than Bolivia. the volume of global trade in quinoa was modest. to 10 275 tonnes. while they in fact may have imported some. Peru registered even stronger export growth.9 million. in particular after 2009. Ministry of Agriculture. For example. so as to support an output of 96 000 tonnes annually by 2016.Table 2. importing countries were not reporting imports of quinoa as a separate product. Global quinoa exports by main exporter. global imports could be subestimated if only importers’ statistics are used. while customs data from Peru shows exports to these countries. Second. First. (t) 36 106 38 257 50 566 58 040 Area (ha) 1 998 2 406 1 779 n/a Chile Prod. Most quinoa 61 1 . Oficina de Estudios de Política Agrícola (ODEPA) (Chile). The reason for choosing reported exports over imports is twofold. 3 United States stands as the third largest exporter of quinoa.2 In Oruro. 64 percent of the total was supplied by Bolivia. mostly in response to dynamic demand from the United States. Bolivia’s exports grew steadily from 10 585 tonnes in 2007 to reach 25 899 tonnes in 2012. Table 3. Department of Agricultural Competitiveness. Overall.15 tonnes to 1. Ecuador and Peru prior to 2012 Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) and Central Bank of Ecuador Information provided to FAO by the Ministry of Agriculture of Peru.

increased substantially in 2008 and 2009. 2007-2012 Bolivia Thousand tonnes 28 Thousand tonnes 12 Peru 21 9 14 6 7 3 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 United States EU Canada Australia Brazil Others * Source: Bolivia and Peru Customs through Global Trade Atlas (GTA) enters the European market through France and the Netherlands (Table 3). In 2012.Germany . measured by the unit value of exports. more than double their 2007 levels. stabilizing in subsequent years. Evolution of Bolivia’s and Peru’s exports of quinoa by destination. Export prices of quinoa. tonnes     World United States EU-27 . The fact that the United States was the main market for Bolivian quinoa in 2012 is in stark contrast with 2007.United Kingdom Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Chile Israel Japan New Zealand Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) Exports from Peru 2010 4 763 2 944 630 74 359 77 20 23 2 18 133 25 226 31 224 136 85 2011 8 020 5 039 1 135 23 508 381 106 35 22 22 320 142 400 99 184 116 145 2012 10 275 6 662 1 363 42 93 463 251 210 30 202 20 446 229 592 85 380 101 120 2010 15 519 7 720 5 486 2 077 1 183 125 1 938 30 258 244 257 473 620 81 201 81 Exports from Bolivia 2011 20 366 10 655 5 856 102 2 552 896 58 2 273 33 487 300 496 389 1 339 132 283 80 2012 25 899 16 342 5 550 81 2 608 921 37 1 467 102 371 261 553 485 1 755 142 429 106 - 6 62 .Belgium . respectively.Spain .Food Outlook . Quinoa exports from Bolivia and Peru by recipient country.Italy . the unit value of exports from Bolivia and Peru reached USD3 047 per tonne and USD2 910 per tonne. when the majority of exports were destined to the EU (Figure 3).France . Table 4.June 201 2013 13 Figure 2.Netherlands .

aggregate consumption appears to have rebounded. is estimated to have dropped from 22 000 tonnes in 2005 to 17 600 tonnes in 2007. In Bolivia. primarily produced for own consumption.6 kg consumed in 2005. 2012).4 kg. in Bolivia. 63 3 . several issues have emerged that require attention. However. In Peru.0 1. Annual per capita consumption of quinoa in Bolivia and Peru Kg.0–1. most quinoa was traditionally consumed domestically and.1 kg per person.2 kg between 2006 and 2011. First is the question of whether traditional quinoa producers will remain the main beneficiaries of the crop’s growing popularity in the coming years. 2011). quinoa is grown by approximately 60 000 small producers.8 kg per person. total consumption.9 kg over the period. The majority belong to poor households. There are at least 130 000 smallscale quinoa growers in South America (FAO. although still less than the 2. for the most part. reflecting a shift from a traditional crop. the share of production that is exported has increased dramatically in the past five years – in Peru from only 4. translating into a falling per capita intake from 2. Share of quinoa exports from Bolivia to US and EU-27 Percent 80 Consumption in Bolivia and Peru In the Andean countries. These farmers are deeply affected by the swift changes in global supply and demand for quinoa. and WDI Note: Peru’s quinoa trade datais only available from 2006. Special features United States European Union 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bolivia Customs through Global Trade Atlas (GTA) Figure 4. to a globally traded commodity. 13 000 farmers produce quinoa permanently for their own consumption and for the market. with exports from both Bolivia and Peru growing vigorously. equivalent to 2. Based on the data available.4 kg to 1.5 1. If the current production estimate for 2012 is confirmed. who are mostly subsistence farmers.0 2. Notwithstanding the dynamic production growth. processing and marketing.5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Bolivia Peru Source: FAOSTAT. Global Trade Atlas (GTA).5 percent to 51. and 2 000 farmers produce quinoa mainly for the market (FAO. primarily for their own consumption. In Peru. within the locations where it was produced. some 55 000 farmers produce quinoa on an irregular basis.2 percent in 2012 and.0 0.5 2. fluctuating around 1.2 percent in 2007 to 23. the fast pace of exports has meant domestic availabilities have fallen in Bolivia and Peru since the mid-2000s. per capita consumption in Bolivia would have recovered to some 2. per year 3. TradeMap.2 percent in the same period. domestic availabilities could only be estimated from 2006. reaching 20 600 tonnes in 2010. 4000 Peru Bolivia 3000 2000 1000 Emerging issues As quinoa production and trade systems are undergoing profound changes. In Bolivia. From 2007 to 2010. consumption per capita has been relatively low. with women directly involved in the crop production. from 37. but falling again in 2011 to 1. Unit values of quinoa exports from Bolivia and Peru USD per kg. calculated as production net of exports. per year. per year. and generally lack the instruments to respond to the challenges and opportunities arising from the growing 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bolivia and Peru Customs through Global Trade Atlas (GTA) Figure 5.Figure 3.

the price of bread remained unchanged and the price of rice actually declined by over 10 percent. By then.2 per kg – meaning that Peruvian producers captured approximately one-third of the export price. in Peru. Bs/kg in real terms (2007=100) Bs per kg. For instance. providing technical assistance and market information. food products.5 2. During the same period.ine.0 2. but nutritionally inferior. Annual quinoa producer prices at farmgate in Peru.minag. the nominal quinoa retail prices in Oruro. 2000-2011.4 The change in the relative food prices is very likely to have prompted most households to cut quinoa intake (either by selling more of 4 Source: Ministry of Agriculture of Peru: http://frenteweb. in real terms (2005=100) Nuevo soles per kg. reaching Nuevo Sol 3. From then on. while quinoa is still produced mostly by smallholder farmers in the Andean countries. Bolivia and Fundación Valles / Servicio de Información y Análisis de Mercados Figure 6. increased by 80 percent from April 2008 to April 2009 and remained at Bs 22 (USD3. as many commercial farms in the Andean countries and elsewhere are responding to the surge of demand and investing in the crop. as well as traditional quinoa growers. poor households have been enticed to replace quinoa with less expensive. the strong growth in revenues generated by quinoa exports has benefitted the economies in the producing countries as a whole. For instance. Therefore. such as bread. in Bolivia. subsistence crop to an export-oriented cash product. Because producer prices have increased along with export prices.gob.June 201 2013 13 world demand.pe/ sisca/?mod=consulta_cult Source: INE. Bolivia (http://www. so as to ensure that quinoa growers and their families benefit from the dynamic world demand. Thus. Producer prices are the prices in the Challapata market. which could eventually trim much of the benefits currently reaped by Andean quinoa producers.10 (approximately USD1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 process of reorientation of the sector from a traditional. 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Producer price Consumer price Note: Consumer prices are the prices in the town of Oruro. Both locations are in Oruro Province. Source: INE.5 1. the question arises as to whether smallholder farmers will continue to dominate the quinoa market or will face increasing competition from larger commercial farms. Additional measures are needed to help smallholder farmers realize the commercial potential of their product by encouraging joint marketing actions through producer organizations. pasta or rice. A final concern relates to the possible negative impacts of surging local prices on the nutritional status of the indigenous Andean populations. able to reap better prices from the exporting agents. strong world import demand and the relatively thin supplies available for trade have defined the quinoa market as a “seller” market.1) per kg in 2011. with the risk of becoming marginalized. producer prices doubled in real terms from 2008 to 2009.aspx) 6 64 .0 1. it will be important in the coming years to guide and support the Figure 7. this state of play may change rapidly. Consumer and producer price of quinoa in Bolivia. who have seen producer prices rise rapidly. A second concern has to do with the level of prices that quinoa producers may receive over the medium term. while the export unit price was USD3. 3. and ensuring fair competition within marketing channels. producers received Bs 8 per kg.gob.bo/ipc/ipcprecios. this might change rapidly in the future. nuevo soles/kg.5 3. one of the main producing regions. From the government policy perspective. With production expanding. As a result. So far. more than double its level in April 2008.Food Outlook . the quinoa retail price stood at Bs 27 per kg. Since the mid-2000s. which was one-third of the price paid by consumers. producers hold significant power in the transactions.1) per kg until September 2012. By March 2013. domestic prices increased further and reached Bs 24 in January 2013.

FAO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean. at the national level. However. compared with 13. Oruro is the only Bolivian province that considers quinoa in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).fao. Bioversity and FAO. quinoa could play a more important role in the global food system. which may alter the current dynamics driving the crop. The current plans to expand quinoa production are expected to translate into much larger world supplies and declining prices at the producer. the crop is assigned a weight of only 0. However. consumer and international levels. highlighting the relatively low importance of the crop for the average Bolivian and suggesting that.pe/biblioteca/download/pdf/ manuales-boletines/quinua/quinua2012. Special features References: FAO (2011) “Quinoa: An ancient crop to contribute to world food security”.2 percent for bread and 6. which has thus far catered to the niche market of health-conscious consumers in high-income countries. Given the current export price of over USD3 000 per tonne. For example. will 65 5 . In the future. July 2011 http://www. where investments are being made to cultivate the crop for commercial purposes. where quinoa is an important part of the local diet.4 percent for rice. the longer term implications of switching towards nutritionally inferior foods remains a public policy concern and a topic under investigation by various national and international organizations. As such. rather than an actual low contribution of quinoa to the diet. may have suffered from the dietary shift. in the short term. This does not exclude the possibility that specific population groups in the Altiplano. World demand is expected to keep growing vigorously in the coming years.6 percent in the food CPI.gob. Thus. and several governments have expressed interest in exploring this option. Concept Note. although most quinoa smallholder farmers have likely benefited from the expansion in trade and rising producer prices. the growing consumption in developed countries will continue to be satisfied by exports from Bolivia and Peru. driven primarily by developed countries. the nutritional effects of substitution of other food for quinoa might have been limited.their production or buying less from the market) in favour of these other basic food products. the revenues generated by quinoa’s sales and how the farmers spend any additional income. June 2012 Peru Ministry of Agriculture (2012) http://agroaldia. which is quoted approximately five times lower on international markets. there is interesting potential for introducing quinoa as a new crop. where expenditure on healthier and natural foods is on an upward trend. given its resilience and low water requirements. given its adaptability to different agro-ecological regions and superior nutritional qualities. In the short run. looking at the relative importance of quinoa in the Bolivian diet. the high price of this product. productivity increases are expected to take place not only in the Andean producing countries but also in the new producing areas. quinoa per capita consumption in Bolivia is estimated at about 2 kg per year. However. on the aggregate. quinoa cannot compete with other food crops such as rice.pdf FAO (2012) “Celebrating the International Year of Quinoa: A future Sown Thousands of Years Ago”. However. In the longer term.minag.pdf Outlook Quinoa is still a relatively new product in the international markets. with vast potential for production and trade expansion. On the other hand.org/alc/file/media/pubs/2011/cultivo_ quinua_en. as they depend on the relative importance of quinoa in their diets. this low weight probably reflects the fact that most of the quinoa consumed is produced by the household itself with little purchased from the market. In other parts of the world. it remains to be seen whether quinoa will ever become a major and world-wide staple. preclude the expansion of consumption in poor countries. the implications of such consumption shift for the food and nutrition security of the indigenous Andean populations are not necessarily negative.

they turned commodity futures into an irresistible money magnet. Commodity hedge funds have existed since 1979. have lost their momentum. Unlike commodity hedge funds. In 1989. commodity hedge funds have shown negative results. The latter repealed the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act. Trading firms hired mathematicians to write algorithmic programmes that could trade without human intervention and arbitrage small price anomalies within milliseconds. required funds to register as either Commodity Trading Advisors or Commodity Pool Operators. The CBOT acted by declaring an emergency and ordered traders holding positions in July soybeans to trade for “liquidation only. the index funds and ETFs. prompted both the exchange and the CFTC to declare emergencies. when a large exporter took ownership of virtually all of the soybeans in the Chicago and Toledo delivery houses. using a variety of bullish or bearish strategies with the sole aim of maximizing returns for themselves and their customers. then the dominant global futures trading centers.8 million MT] by the middle of the decade. it seems. These funds solicited customer moneys to trade in the US futures markets. Senior Commodity Analyst) Once admired for turning profits year after year by riding the ups and downs of market waves. when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Farmers staged tractor protests around the famed CBOT building and lodged several lawsuits against the trading establishment over a ten-year period. dissolving the barriers that had separated banking. 6 66 . from CFTC oversight. these limits grew geometrically to as high as 22 000 contracts [2. Electronic trading rapidly deposed face-to-face pit trading throughout the 2000s. the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). throughout the 1980s and 1990s. were biased in favor of the exchange members. to raise the speculative limits on its grain and oilseed contracts. Commodity futures prices became a daily staple of financial news programmes. price collapse resulted in years of recriminations. The German-based Deutsche Bank launched a purely agricultural ETF in 2006. In 1976.7 percent. Once restricted to 600 contracts (75 000 MT). However. their prices streaming across the televised banners alongside equity prices. registered slightly negative returns in 2011 and. wrote “Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures” in 2004. Leach. commodity hedge funds. the US regulator charged with overseeing all futures trading. Poor performance led investors to withdraw 20 percent of their moneys from these funds last year. a default on the potato contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange ended with CFTC charging both longs and shorts with manipulation. After all. which today is the largest agricultural fund by market capitalization.Food Outlook . the CFTC revoked the exporter’s hedge status. No longer considered a form of gambling. those returns fell to minus 3. including those focused in agriculture. Commodity index funds and similar vehicles such as commodity-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) attracted enormous investment interest. in 2012. Market manipulation was also a recurrent theme. these exchanges maintained their original non-profit membership structure. Legislative events in the US were pivotal in this transformation: in 2000. after enjoying double digit returns as high as 40 percent. commodity hedge funds.”1 The subsequent 1 Trade for liquidation means that traders cannot initiate new positions in a particular futures contract and must sell any existing long positions or conversely buy back any existing short positions. allowed for passive ownership of a basket of commodities by tracking the prices of the underlying futures contracts. The former exempted the over-the-counter [OTC] market and energy futures. Instantaneous trade confirmations replaced the relay system of floor runners shuttling between pit broker and floor booth. causing soybean futures to soar. Three years later. which had sometimes delayed transaction reporting by an hour. and suspected that the trading pits in Chicago or New York City. such as crude oil. perceived “corners” in the silver and wheat markets at the largest exchange. and upheld a mission of “enhancing membership opportunity”. the US Congress passed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act and the Graham. asserting that commodity futures were a distinct asset class and largely uncorrelated with equity markets. From 2000 onwards. up until 2000. spurring an unprecedented increase in trade volumes. When two renowned academics. The investment public generally viewed commodity futures trading as volatile and risky.June 201 2013 13 COMMODITY HEDGE FUNDS IN RETREAT?  (Article by Ann Berg. then the primary agricultural exchange. defined as securities offerings. Gary Gorton and Geert Rouwenhorst. For two years in a row. insurance and brokering for 70 years. these funds were slow to take off. a cascade of events transformed commodities futures trading from an arcane business into a mainstream activity. commodity futures had achieved worthy status as a means for portfolio diversification. Bliley Act. According to Newedge Index tracking fund. Interest in commodities prices spread globally. These two acts unleashed a flood of new players and money into the commodity futures arena and created pressure on the CBOT.

In fact. When a corner in the London July 2010 cocoa contract by a single prominent hedge fund caused prices to soar and then collapse. seemed to evaporate overnight. eliciting opinions from economists. agricultural futures exploded. such as coffee. The Volcker Rule. The overhang of surplus grain stocks. causing a two-day sell-off of about USD40/MT. sugar and cocoa which are less supply elastic owing to their extended growing cycles. Most of those engaged in making money via speculation claimed that their trading activities were beneficial for markets – providing liquidity and aiding price discovery. Reforms. The Dodd Frank Act’s mandate to the CFTC – imposing speculative position limits on 28 commodities – was rejected in court and remains contested. these funds exited most of their bullish bets by the end of 2008. and disruptive climatic events. Most recently. inflating prices and contributing to hunger. financial journals. net long positions in all commodity futures had reportedly dropped to their lowest levels since 2006. imposed speculative limits in its sugar. The 2007/2008 food crisis proved to be a money maker for the numerous hedge funds that rode the escalating prices of wheat. the multiple food riots that erupted around the globe as a result of high prices drew unwelcome attention to the industry. 67 7 . followed by another round of high food prices in 2010/2011. the performance of the commodity hedge funds declined and their positioning in agricultural futures no longer seemed to be predictive of market trends. of course. Even as prices rebounded. which has been the most significant driver of all commodity demand since 2000. Following several complaints over the cocoa incident. Several analysts have suggested that the downturn in profitability parallels the approaching end of the “commodity supercycle”. which essentially banned proprietary trading by banks. particularly in the US.Major developments specifically drawing money into agricultural markets included US mandates for biofuel production that primarily involved distilling corn into ethanol. a global disaster loomed. it revealed that Europe had no regulatory system with regard to derivative transactions. along with several implementing regulations such as European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). have appeared to be in a downturn since the second half of 2012. think tanks and. Ironically. hedge funds liquidated about 80 000 contracts during this price rout. in wheat. the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) petition to the CFTC to raise speculative positions in agricultural contracts by as much as 80 percent met with the agency’s approval. Essentially. Although these snapshots of market activity fail to capture the whole book of commodity hedge fund transactions. hedge funds seemed uncharacteristically stubborn in holding on to their long holdings following a price decrease between August and December of about USD45/MT. As prices fell. According to the following week’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. by 2011. met with much resistance with regard to on-exchange futures transactions. they do illustrate a change in hedge fund behavior and one that corresponds to declining performance. the hefty fee and profit taken by the fund (commonly referred Special features 2 The increase in speculative limits did not apply to spot month limits. Industry outsiders largely condemned speculation in foodstuffs as causing volatility. coffee and feed wheat contracts. the commodity that had experienced the largest percentage gain. the market participants. Agricultural contracts. The 2008 global financial crisis. US reform resulted in the passage of the Dodd Frank bill of 2010 while European reform was expressed in the principles of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II). such as offsetting spreads or options trades. even though several banks have since closed their trading desks. such as grains and oilseeds. When FAO announced in 2007 that the stocks-to-use level in wheat would drop to the lowest in 30 years. has yet to be implemented. rising demand for animal protein spurred by emerging market growth. in March. Anecdotally. Examining the maize market in 2012. Soft commodities. NYSE-liffe. A polarized debate commenced about the role of speculation and food prices. The industry itself however could unveil other explanations. However. a self-regulatory organization (SRO). hedge funds enlarged their long position in maize in anticipation of a bullish USDA planting intentions report. the long liquidation continued throughout April – as if funds were sounding a retreat from the sector. As the transformation of commodities futures from mundane hedging instruments to a must-have asset class neared completion. As of April. the USDA announced potential record maize production for 2013. have declined to multiyear lows. the argument over speculation degenerated into a rigid reductionist stance of good versus bad. cocoa. prompted a reform movement on regulation of all derivatives transactions. which had been steadily decreasing for years. The long bet turned disastrous when. without a scientific means for measuring the level of speculative “froth” in market-determined prices. hedge funds had established a modest short position by October of the same year. intergovernmental organizations. citing a potential economic slowdown in China. corn and soybeans to their highs.2 Notwithstanding the muted effects of reform on agricultural futures markets.

commodity hedge funds are finding profitability harder to come by. have now saturated the system. mirroring the level of withdrawal from hedge funds. As with most mature businesses. Also. High volatility – peaking at 80 during the food crisis five years ago but declining to levels around 12–20 for most of the past year and a half – was most likely a significant factor in commodity hedge fund success in years past. besides paying annual fees.June 201 2013 13 Hedge funds beat retreat in face of market turmoil Maize futures 300 Max 290 Min USD per tonne 280 270 260 250 240 Close March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 to as “2 and 20”3) have soured customers who. Indeed. now find themselves saddled with 100 percent of the losses. might have been instrumental in reducing the level of price volatility. 6 68 . always generating a loss for every gain. this trend is visible in the commodity index fund investment data which shows a 20 percent drawdown since April 2011. especially those specializing in arbitraging market anomalies.Food Outlook . which were once uncommon and highly profitable. sophisticated algorithmic programmes. Finally. These programmes. Maize managed money (net positions) 250 Thousand contracts 200 150 100 50 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 3 “2 and 20” refers to an annual management fee of 2 percent and the fund’s share of the accrued profits of 20 percent. the sobering truth about the nature of commodity futures may have reemerged: they are not investments at all but risk-shifting instruments.

69 .

A DE JO VE R LO PO PM LIC EN Y TS M MA DE P RK VE OL E L IC T OP Y ME NT S .

Maize will be procured in northeastern maize producing region at CNY 2 100 per tonnes (USD 340). Finance and credit facilities Provide producers a refund of USD 30 per tonne of exported wheat. Allocated EGP 11 billion (USD 1. Announced increase of procurement price for maize in 2013 Approved the Plan Semillas de Alto Rendimiento for maize.32) per kg.5 per tonnes (USD 400 per tonnes). Wheat Wheat Barley and Wheat Wheat European Union May-13 Grains Seed regulation Major policy developments 71 1 May-13 Wheat and barley Import duty . half of what was originally agreed. due to low supplies. bringing the total allowed to 3 million tonnes. Maize Wheat Argentina/Brazil/United States of America Maize Bangladesh Wheat Increased procurement price of wheat by 4 percent to BDT 25 (USD 0. after the Ukrainian Government hinted banning exports of wheat. the new AGREX futures will be traded on the Italian Derivatives Exchange Market. Extended suspension of import duties on wheat of low and medium quality and feed barley from the end of December 2012 to the end of the 2012/13 marketing year (July/June). The quota will remain in place until 31 July 2013. Export quota Approved additional exports of 4. In addition. Wheat Brazil Wheat Chile Maize Maize China (Mainland) Wheat Maize Ecuador Maize Wheat Feb-13 Government procurement and procurement price Government market intervention Government procurement Import tariff Futures market development Nov-12 Import restrictions Wheat Egypt Mar-13 Apr-13 Nov-12 Jan-13 Increased procurement price for wheat in 2013/14 marketing year by 5 percent to EGP 2 666. with the view i to enhancing maize yields from 3.5 million tonnes of wheat from farmers to replenish stocks. to modern. which finances the access of small-scale farmers owning less than 10 ha of land. with March. September and December as delivery months. approved export of 1 million tonnes of old crop wheat. MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS: MID-OCTOBER 2012 .29 million tonnes of wheat from state reserves to ease tight market conditions.5 million tonnes.GRAINS: DATE Feb-13 Mar-13 Export quota Export quota POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Authorized export of 3 million tonnes of maize in addition to 15 million tonnes already granted. Announced by Borsa Italiana.7 percent countervailing import tariff on imports of Argentine maize on grounds of unfair competition and dumping. Exempted 1 million tonnes of wheat from non-Mercosur origins from the 10 percent import duty between April and July 2013. Announced the first Europe-based durum futures market would be launched on 21 January 2013. Sold 1. Adoption by the European Commission of a package of measures to strengthen the enforcement of health and safety standards for the whole agrifood chain. May. It provides more simplified and flexible rules for the marketing of seeds and other plant reproductive material.6 billion) to boost domestic wheat procurement to 4. Authorized 5 million tonnes of wheat export from the 2013/14 crop. Removed Ukraine from list of approved wheat suppliers during 2013.5 tonnes per ha to 6 tonnes per ha.4 million tonnes of maize from 2012/13 crop. Extension of zero import duties for feed wheat and barley quotas beyond the end of the current season (June 30).6 billion) for the purchase of 4. Introduced 9. Doubled non-Mercosur import quota for wheat and waived tariff. Increased government procurement price for maize in 2013 by 7 percent. yield-increasing technologies.MID MAY 2013* COUNTRY PRODUCT Maize Wheat Argentina Apr-13 May-13 May-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Nov-12 Mar-13 May-13 Dec-12 Productive assets Procurement price Stock Release Government procurement from farmers Import tariff Import quota Import duty Procurement price Trade alliance Formed an alliance of maize producers. collectively called MAIZALL. Government has allocated EGP 11 billion (USD 1. Announced plans to build 150 silos ahead of the 2014 wheat harvest. and set government procurement at 150 000 tonnes for the current year.

As part of its 2013-2014 budgetary allocations.02) per kilo of millet. the subsidized credit scheme renewed and expanded. 500 000 tonnes higher than in 2012. Further Rupees 5.04) and Rupees 1(USD 0. for the fiscal year beginning 1 April 2013. by 44 percent year-on-year . Extended the allocation of subsidized grains during 2013-14 to families above the poverty line. Raised import tariff for wheat flour to 20 percent for 200 days .Food Outlook . including maize sorghum. 90 percent of the insurance premium will be covered by the provincial government and 10 percent by the farmer. storage Export measures Budgetary allocation.05) per kilo of rice. Increased animal feed grain reserves. Under the programme. for imported wheat as of April 2013 to an average ¥ 54 900 per tonne (USD 600). Extended the zero duty on imports of soft wheat until the end of April 2013. set aside Rupees 100 billion (USD 1. Purchase of 9 million tonnes of wheat from farmers by the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO) and provinces. to 1. the rations would be made available at subsidized prices of Rupees 3 (USD 0.5 percent. The revised bill envisages granting legal entitlement of 5 kilograms of grains per person per month to the general population. in order to meet 2013 procurement target. Provide insurance coverage for maize farmers. food subsidies Minimum support price Export limit Approved the 2013 wheat export limit at 2.15 million tonnes.June 2013 DATE Nov-12 Dec-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Feb-13 Budgetary allocations. A revised version of the National Food Security Act approved by the Indian Cabinet. For the first three years of implementation of the scheme. with funds assigned to expand public and private storage capacity. Allowed private traders to export 5 million tonnes of wheat from the 2012 harvest from government stocks between February and May 2013. Releasing stocks Approved release of 500 000 tonnes from government stocks through retail outlets. This includes government reserves of 600 000 tonnes and 550 000 tonnes held by feed suppliers. Reduce maize farmers´ income tax by 1. agricultural credit.5 million tonnes. production support. The scheme is expected to cover up to 75 percent of the rural population and 50 percent of urban dwellers. with more vulnerable families receiving a monthly ration of 35 kilos of foodgrains per household. under the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) – 4. Targeted agricultural credit disbursements also raised. POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION 7 72 Mar-13 Mar-13 Food subsidies May-13 Targeted food subsidies Dec-12 May-13 Feb-13 Increase animal feed reserves Export ban Import Tariff Feb-13 Dec-12 Mar-13 Apr-13 Feb-13 Farmers Income Tax Finance and credit facilities Government procurement Import Duty Price control COUNTRY PRODUCT Wheat Wheat Wheat Grains Wheat India Wheat Grains Wheat Indonesia Wheat flour Iran Wheat Maize and sorghum Japan Wheat Morocco Wheat Pakistan Wheat Peru Maize Philippines Maize . Set the price at INR 14 800 per tonne (USD 315 per tonnes) plus taxes. due to poor grain harvest in the country and desire of the local authorities to increase their stocks of the product. to INR 1 350 per 100 kg (USD 248 per tonne). Increased the domestic sale price by 10 percent.8 billion) of extra outlays to fund the gradual roll-out of the National Food Security Act. when enacted. through the Provincial Government of Northern Samar and the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation. crop diversification.0 billion (USD 92 million) were allocated to encourage crop diversification in original Green Revolution states. Rupees 2 in the case of a kilo of wheat (USD 0. Increased minimum support price for wheat in 2013 by 5 percent.2 million tonnes of wheat will be distributed to the targeted families. Introduction of export ban on wheat in order to curb cross-border trading of wheat from western borders. to ease high domestic prices.

Announced plans to purchase wheat on the domestic market during August–October 2013 to replenish state reserves. but retracted in late November 2012.8 million tonnes. not just Siberia.fao. to ease soaring domestic prices and food shortages. and increased the weekly sales limit by 20 000 tonnes. from USD 215 per tonnes to USD 294 per tonnes. Increased wheat export quotas by 500 000 tonnes. Remove 5 percent import tax – from early April until July 2013. including wheat and barley. as of 6 November 2012. Increased wheat export quotas by 300 000 tonnes. the Urals and the Far East regions. to 130 000 tonnes.COUNTRY Nov-12 Government market intervention Expanded sales from grain intervention stocks to all regions. PRODUCT DATE POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Grains Russian Federation Nov-12 Mar-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Nov-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Mar-13 Export restriction Lifted export restrictions on maize Export quota Export quota Export ban Import tariff Price Support Government procurement Import duty Wheat Wheat South Africa Wheat Increase of the dollar-based reference price for locally produced wheat by 37 percent. Announced removal of import tariffs on several basic commodities. to 7 million tonnes in 2012/2013 (July/June). Syria Barley and Wheat Wheat Ukraine Wheat Wheat Zambia Maize * A collection of major grain policy developments starting in July 2010 is available at: http://www. Announced export ban on wheat as of 15 November 2012. to 5.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=grains Major policy developments 73 3 .

purchasing prices Production support Food subsidies Government procurement Government procurement. between 9 December 2012 and 28 February 2013. Volumes are to be purchased at Taka 29 per kg (USD 365 per tonne) of rice and Taka 18. Agreed to institute reference floor/ceiling prices for paddy. Announced that the state enterprise EMAPA would procure supplies from the 2013 harvest at USD 55 for 200 kg fanega (USD 275 per tonne). The price band will be implemented within the framework of the storage incentive programme. The move will make the exemption permanent in the case of rice. The initiative is targeted to raise production from this small crop by 110 000 tonnes. purchasing prices Import agreement Export ban Government procurement.4 per kg). and no more than Pesos 118 000–132 000 (USD 519–581 per tonne). Raised government paddy procurement prices for the 2013 season by 10 percent to Yuan 132 per 50 kg bag (USD 420 per tonne) of early indica rice. respectively. which is to operate between 1 August and 30 November 2013. maintaining the New South Wales Rice Marketing Board's sole and exclusive right to export produce grown in the state. Announced that public stock releases would be stopped so as to avert downward pressure on local quotations during the approaching crop harvest period. Announced plans to procure up to 60 000 tonnes from the 2013 harvest. The initiative is intended to assist the population in coping with inflationary pressure. thus helping alleviate concerns over depleting water tables from the extensive cultivation of the irrigated Boro crop. Approved imports of 250 000 tonnes of rice. warehouse receipts program RICE: MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS: NOVEMBER 2012 . Locally produced rice will continue to be sold to vulnerable groups at a subsidized price of FCFA 200 per kg (USD 0. Agreed to renew the memorandum of understanding with Thailand until 2016. The volume includes 160 000 tonnes originating in the United States. Included non-aromatic rice in the list of items prohibited for export under the country’s export policy for 2012–2015. as well as an additional 90 000 tonnes of rice from Andean Community countries for import between March and May 2013. which had been intermittently exempted from the federal levies in recent years. Allocated Taka 430 million (USD 5. Government procurement. envisaging the supply of up to 1. including rice. value added taxes Support prices Import quota Support prices. by 8 percent to Yuan 135 per 50 kg bag (USD 430 per tonne) of late/ intermediate indica rice. Contribution to Social Security Financing (COFINS) and Industrialized Products Tax (IPI) taxes. on a need basis. Producers are to receive a minimum of Pesos 108 000–122 000 per 125 kg (USD 475– 537 per tonne) depending on the various production areas.Food Outlook .4 million) to support Aus crop cultivation during the 2013 season. from Social Integration Program (PIS). and by 7 percent to Yuan 150 per 50 kg bag of japonica rice (USD 478 per tonne). between May and September 2013. Exonerated products composing the basic food basket. Extended the subsidized sales programme for rice and maize for a second round.MID MAY 2013* COUNTRY PRODUCT DATE Australia Rice Dec-12 Rice Nov-12 Rice Dec-12 Rice Feb-13 Bangladesh Rice Mar-13 Rice Mar-13 Benin Rice Mar-13 Rice Dec-12 Bolivia Rice Apr-13 Rice Jan-13 Brazil Rice Mar-13 Burundi Rice Dec-12 China (Mainland) Rice Feb-13 Rice Nov-12 Colombia Rice Mar-13 .0 million tonnes of Thai rice to Bangladesh.5 per kg of paddy (USD 233 per tonne). Extended the exemption of value added taxes and other administrative charges levied on rice and 11 other imported food commodities until 30 of June 2013. as part of the 2012 and 2013 tariff rate quota set out under the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. up 20 percent from 2012. and will be accompanied by efforts to increase border protection and support the industry gain competitiveness. purchasing prices Stock release Tax policy Consumer prices. Volumes are to be purchased at Taka 26 per kg (USD 321 per tonne) and Taka 25 per kg (USD 309 per tonne). in a bid to ease local supply tightness and keep prices under check. Announced that government will buy 900 000 tonnes of rice and 150 000 tonnes of paddy from the 2012–2013 Boro harvest. The support package will provide an estimated 325 500 smallholders with free fertilizer and seed of high-yielding and Nerica rice varieties.June 2013 7 74 POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT Export and marketing arrangements DESCRIPTION Single-desk arrangement for rice renewed by the Government of New South Wales until 30 June 2017. Set a procurement target of 250 000 tonnes of parboiled rice and 50 000 tonnes of white rice from the Aman harvest.

These are to assist in monitoring local quotations and thwarting food price speculation. Allocated a further Rupees 5. starting with the 2013 winter crop.0 billion (USD 183 million) allotment. in light of the more than adequate domestic supply situation. Extended the National Food Security Mission-Rice coverage to an additional 24 states. as part of its 2013-2014 budgetary allocations. Awarded export licenses for 188 000 tonnes of rice through a tender held on 3 December 2013. Additional support measures to the sector will include greater border protection. Renewed the “Bringing the Green Revolution to Eastern India” (BGREI) scheme through a Rupees 10. Rice Export licenses Cultivation limits Protected geographical indication Import agreement Trade agreement Dec-12 Export licenses Egypt Rice Feb-13 Rice Mar-13 European Union Rice Feb-13 Guinea Rice Mar-13 Guyana/ Venezuela Import agreement. Announced the introduction of a support programme for small-scale producers of maize and rice. among the list of items permitted to be traded along the Indo-Myanmar border. capacity building and higher subsidies on seeds. Awarded export licenses for 173 000 tones through a tender held on 14 February 2013. which will be raised from USD 113 to USD 200 per hectare. crop diversification. Targeted agricultural credit disbursements were also raised. agricultural credit. storage Nov-12 Export restrictions Rice Nov-12 Rice Nov-12 India Rice Nov-12 Rice Feb-13 Major policy developments 75 5 . including selected qualities of rice. Rejected a local industry request to impose safeguard measures against selected classes of milled rice imports carried out outside of CAFTA and other Central American preferential trade commitments. along with 21 other commodities. Decided to continue permitting the unrestricted export of non-basmati rice and wheat. fertilizers and other agrochemicals. that will seek to boost rice production by 300 000 tonnes. Reached a government-to-government agreement with Viet Nam for the provision of rice on preferential terms. Agreed to renew the PetroCaribe rice trade agreement for an additional year. Approved the institution of reference wholesale prices for a set of 46 products. PRODUCT DATE POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Costa Rica Rice Nov-12 Côte d'Ivoire Rice Jan-13 Rice Dec-12 Production support Ecuador Production support.76 million feddans (739 000 ha) of rice during the 2013 season. Approved an additional allocation of 500 000 tonnes of rice and an equal amount of wheat for sale by state and union territory governments and national cooperatives. The initiative will grant an estimated 3 000 small rice farmers (with holdings of 10 ha or less) a subsidy of USD 123 per hectare for the acquisition of high-yielding seed varieties. Entered Thai “Khao Hom Mali Thung Kula Rong-Hai” rice into the register of protected designations of origin and protected geographical indications. Tchologo and Bagoué. and the subsidized credit scheme renewed and expanded. Vietnam is to provide technical assistance to Haiti in its efforts to boost rice production and storage capacity. under the Open Market Sales Scheme. a multinational commodity trading company.5 per 200 pounds (USD 380 per tonne) for the 2013 winter harvest. support prices Rice Feb-13 Reference prices Rice Apr-13 Following a meeting of the Rice Consultative Council. Signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Viet Nam for the annual provision of 300 000 tonnes of rice until 2015.COUNTRY Safeguard measures Foreign agricultural investment Signed a framework agreement with Louis Dreyfus. production support Rice May-13 Haiti Rice Dec-12 Rice Food subsidies Production support Trade promotion Budgetary allocations. Volumes were to be shipped by 31 January 2013. announced a 4 percent increase in paddy producer prices to USD 34. Guyana is to provide 140 000 tonnes of paddy and 70 000 tonnes of rice to Venezuela in 2013. payment for which will be deducted from Guyana's oil arrears to Venezuela. Declared that sufficient irrigation water would be provided to cultivate 1. The plan envisages cultivating up to 200 000 ha in the northern areas of Poro. with funds assigned to enlarge public and private storage capacity. Under the accord.0 billion (USD 92 million) to encourage crop diversification in original Green Revolution states. Volumes were to be delivered by 15 April 2013. Additionally. Included rice. production support.

marketing assistance Production support. while continuing to encourage producers in northern coastal regions to replace rice with maize. However. Announced plans to procure 100 000 tonnes of rice during the 2013–2014 fiscal year to refurbish public stocks and support local prices. Bulk shipments will also be allowed. export promotion. Waived Shillings 442 million (USD 5. Announced that the Myanmar Rice Federation would procure 100 000 tonnes of rice between December and January to replenish government stockpiles and support flood-affected farmers.June 2013 POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT Food subsidies Announced that effective January 2014.5 million in 2013. offering participating farmers improved seed free of costs. support prices Production support Import restrictions Credit.0 million) worth of debt accrued by paddy farmers in the Mwea irrigation scheme. the number of eligible families was revised down from 17. in an effort to keep local prices stable. with the repayment period for loans for wet season crops further extended to March 2013. The measures are geared at arresting further declines in local producer prices. Renewed import tariff exemptions on semi/wholly milled rice and broken rice. Purchases are to be undertaken through tenders. Certification of non-GMO presence by private laboratories will now be permitted. as well as a 50 percent subsidy on fertilizers.5 million in 2012 to 15. Signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Myanmar for the annual provision of up to 500 000 tonnes of rice. on a needs basis. Agreed with industry representatives to promote exports to fellow Andean countries. Announced that it would step-up border protection in order to curb rice smuggling. credit Government procurement. promotion of local products COUNTRY PRODUCT DATE Rice Apr-13 Indonesia Rice Apr-13 Iraq Rice Mar-13 Kenya Rice Nov-12 Liberia Rice Jan-13 Rice Nov-12 Rice Dec-12 Myanmar Rice Jan-13 Rice Apr-13 Rice Nov-12 Nigeria Rice May-13 Panama Rice Apr-13 Peru Rice Apr-13 .3 million tonnes. Announced that seasonal loan limits for summer paddy crops would be raised from Kyat 80 000 to 100 000 per acre (USD 284 per hectare). Announced that USD 6 million worth of credit and marketing assistance would be provided to the industry. which foresee the release of grain supplies from public reserves and distribution of subsidized inputs to affected producers. Agreed to modify tender specifications for rice originating in the United States. greater domestic consumption of local rice. All rice brought into Nigeria via land borders will be considered contraband.2) per kg. and the US definition and test for chalky kernels accepted. launched a procurement round for 25 percent broken rice through a tendering process. DESCRIPTION 7 76 Import agreement Import requirements Production support Import tariff Government procurement Government procurement Production support. rations under the public subsidized distribution scheme (Raskin) will be raised by 5 kg to 20 kg per household and will continue to be sold at Rupiah 1 600 (USD 0. with rice imports only permitted through seaports after applicable duties are paid. Announced a programme to bolster off-season paddy production to supplement broader flood recovery efforts. The initiative aims to raise dry-season output by 1.Food Outlook . In collaboration with the Myanmar Rice Federation. The measure is geared at sustaining farmers that have incurred losses due to floods. provided certain criteria are met. Purchases are geared at refurbishing government stockpiles and supporting farmers during harvest time.

In order to support official purchasing activities. Called for urgent consultations with Indian officials. The accord envisages rice imports to be carried out primarily by the National Food Authority.COUNTRY Import quota PRODUCT DATE POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Signed an agreement with industry representatives in Luzon to combat rice smuggling. enabling the National Food Authority to import rice through the Cambodian state-owned enterprise Green Trade. Announced that the government would release 211 000 tonnes of rice from reserves to local markets to ensure domestic prices remain stable ahead of the Lunar New Year. Imported volumes are to arrive no later than 31 December 2013. the country is to buy 388 353 tonnes in 2013. as part of its Minimum Access Volume (MAV) commitments under the WTO. Procedures to identify. Allocated Pesos 500 million (USD 12 million) to encourage greater hybrid rice cultivation in 2013 and 2014. starting 10 April 2013. Announced plans to import 187 000 tonnes of rice by 30 June 2013. insurance. Officials also announced the introduction of a guaranteed price for paddy grown using organic fertilizers of Rupees 40 per kg (USD 316 per tonne). Announced its 2013 Minimum Market Access (MMA) purchase plan ahead of time. Signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Cambodia. Rice Feb-13 Rice Mar-13 Import quota Philippines Import quota Rice Mar-13 Rice Production support Apr-13 Import agreement Rice Apr-13 Rice Jan-13 Import quota Republic of Korea Stock release Import restrictions. Announced that an estimated 100 000 drought-stricken farmers would be provided with credit relief and seeds free of charge. in addition to permitting private entities to purchase fuel from abroad. Announced that temporary import restrictions on Indian rice would be imposed due to detection of khapra beetle in a consignment of rice from India in December 2012. credit Rice Jan-13 Rice Dec-12 Russia Rice Feb-13 Sri Lanka Rice Nov-12 Syria Rice Jan-13 Import tariff Major policy developments 77 7 . Restrictions became effective 19 February 2013. up from an estimated 165 000 ha in 2012. the Paddy Marketing Board’s storage capacity is to be bolstered and guaranteed prices for paddy raised by 14 percent to Rupees 32 per kg (USD 253 per tonne) in the case of Nadu paddy and by 17 percent to Rupees 35 per kg (USD 277 per tonne) for Samba paddy. in order to anticipate deliveries and keep local quotations under check. seize. after khapra beetle was found in a small consignment of rice from India. and that a crop insurance scheme would be introduced alongside the existing fertilizer subsidy programme. Announced plans to eliminate import duties on rice and 16 other staple products. phytosanitary measures Production support. procurement. Announced that applications to import 163 000 tonnes of rice under Minimum Access Volume (MAV) countryspecific quotas would be opened to the private sector. support prices. with involvement of the private sector in the distribution of imported rice permitted through the agency's “Institutionalized Farmers as Distributors Program”. as part of 2013 budgetary allocations. The initiative aims to raise hybrid rice coverage to 284 000 ha in 2013 and to 390 000 ha the following year. Under its MMA commitments. Purchases are to be undertaken solely by the National Food Authority and will serve to reconstitute reserves ahead of lean months. store and dispose of smuggled supplies were also covered under the agreement. phytosanitary measures Import restrictions.

Food Outlook - June 2013
POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT Stock release DESCRIPTION

7 78
Approved the release of 600 000 tonnes of fragrant rice and 500 000 tonnes of white rice from government stocks for export through tenders. Trade promotion Ministerial proposals to enhance rice trade cooperation with four other ASEAN nations (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam) approved by Thai Cabinet. The initiative is geared at preventing international rice prices from falling below profitable levels and envisages the establishment of rice trade zones along bordering areas. Stock release Scaled back earlier announced plans to release 600 000 tonnes of fragrant rice from government stocks through tenders, on concerns over tenders' terms and conditions. Government procurement, support prices Approved the extension of the Paddy Pledging Program for 2012–2013 off-season crops. Farmers will continue receiving between Baht 13 800–20 000 (USD 468–678) per tonne of paddy pledged, but will not be permitted to mortgage 18 types of low-quality, short-duration varieties. Mortgaged amounts will be additionally subject to a value ceiling of Baht 500 000 (USD 16 900) per farm household. Up to 7 million tonnes are officially anticipated to be mortgaged under the off-season run of the programme, between April and September 2013, for an estimated cost of Baht 105 billion (USD 3.6 billion). Stock release Approved the release of 20 000 tonnes of Hom Mali rice and 10 000 tonnes of 5 percent broken rice for sale to the domestic market. A further 40 000 tonnes of paddy from the 2003–2004 crop are to be released to the feed sector, with 20 000 tonnes of fragrant rice exports to China (Mainland) additionally approved. Stock release Announced a target of redeeming Baht 180 billion (USD 6.1 billion) worth of revenue from the sale of public stocks by the end of September 2013 in order to finance the paddy pledging programme. Stock release Announced a plan to release 500 000 tonnes of white rice from government stocks through tender. Stock release Delayed plans to release 500 000 tonnes of white rice from Government stocks through tender, given declines in domestic prices and a local currency appreciation. Stock release Announced plans to expedite the release of rice from Government stocks to domestic and international markets. Cooperation agreement, import agreement Signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance cooperation and expand trade in rice between the two nations. A separate agreement between private parties from the two countries secured the provision of 260 000 tonnes of Thai rice to China (Mainland). Import quota, import tariffs Allocated a 100 000 tonne, free of duty, import quota to the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). The rice is to be brought by 1 September 2015. Price controls Raised ceilings on consumer prices by 28 percent to Bolívares 7.2 (USD 1.7 ) per kg of Type I rice, to Bolívares 6.69 (USD 1.6) per kg of Type II rice and to Bolívares 6.34 per kg of Type III rice (USD 1.5). Production support Approved a one-time subsidy for the 2013 winter crop cycle. Producers are to receive Bolívares 1.1 per kg (USD 175 per tonne) of Type A or Type B paddy produced, between 1 January and 30 June 2013, on top of support prices of Bolívares 2.50–2.58 per kg (USD 397–410 per tonne). Import quota Exempted 70 000 tonnes of rice originating from the Lao PDR from import duties, valid through 2013. Minimum export prices Introduced a Minimum Export Price (MEP) of USD 370 per tonne for 35 percent broken rice, effective 27 December 2012. Government procurement Announced that member companies of the Vietnam Food Association would purchase 1 million tonnes of winter-spring paddy from farmers, starting 20 February 2013. Participating companies are to pay no less than Dong 5 000 per kg (USD 239 per tonne) of paddy bought and will receive credit at subsidized rates for the purpose. Minimum export prices Set minimum export prices for 5 percent broken rice at USD 410 per tonne and at USD 365 per tonne in the case of 35 percent broken rice, effective 6 February 2013. Minimum export prices Suspended minimum export prices for 5 percent broken rice and raised them for 35 percent broken by USD 5 to USD 370 per tonne. Minimum export prices Lowered floor prices for 35 percent broken rice by USD 5 to USD 365 per tonne.

COUNTRY

PRODUCT

DATE

Rice

Nov-12

Rice

Nov-12

Rice

Dec-12

Rice

Mar-13

Thailand

Rice

Mar-13

Rice

Mar-13

Rice Rice

Apr-13 Apr-13

Rice

May-13

Thailand/China (Mainland)

Rice

Nov-12

Turkey

Rice

Apr-13

Rice

Dec-12

Venezuela

Rice

May-13

Rice Rice

Dec-12 Dec-12

Rice

Jan-13

Vietnam

Rice

Feb-13

Rice

Mar-13

Rice

Apr-13

* A collection of major rice policy developments starting in January 2011 is available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=rice.

OILSEEDS:
POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT Import policy Renewable energy policy Land taxation Import policy Trade policy Market control Export policy Carried out revaluation of agricultural land with a view to raise real estate taxation. Temporarily allowed soybean imports to address problems of excess capacity in domestic crushing. Filed a complaint at the WTO against the EU over Spain’s biofuel import policy (later put on hold as Spain amended its import regulations, restoring access to the local biofuels market). Penalized leading grain firms during investigations into alleged export tax evasion. Postponed the increase in mandatory biodiesel blending (from B7 to B10) to 2013. DESCRIPTION

MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS: APRIL 2012 - MARCH 2013*
Temporarily suspended import duties on soymeal (and other feedstuff) to contain costs for domestic livestock industry and thus check rises in local retail prices.

COUNTRY

PRODUCT

DATE

Algeria

Soymeal

Oct-12

Biodiesel

Apr-12

Arable land

May-12

Soybean

Aug-12

Biodiesel

Aug-12

Argentina

Soybean

Oct-12

Biofuel

Oct-12

Adjusted level of export tax and of domestic retail price for soyoil-based diesel with a view to stimulate domestic biodiesel consumption, while at the same time guaranteeing adequate margins for export-oriented processors. Temporarily raised import tariffs above MERCOSUR's common external tariff. Granted federal tax exemptions plus financial assistance from state governments to biofuel companies. Started regular imports by state agency to guarantee domestic supplies and stabilize prices. Supported diversification of soybean marketing to tap into new export and domestic markets. Supported R&D projects to secure continued growth in the sector. Backed research on industrial applications of carinata oil, including as aviation biofuel. Launched, together with concerned private sector bodies, voluntary standards to control major plant pests and diseases in grain and oilseed cultivation. Raised coverage and areas included under the crop insurance programme of Manitoba province; added soybean and sunflower seed crops.

Vegetable oils Renewable energy policy Import policy/ market regulation Sector development assistance Sector development assistance Renewable energy policy Sector development assistance Sector development assistance

Jan-13

Import policy

Australia

Biofuel

May-12

Bangladesh

Palm oil

Aug-12

Soybean

May-12

Rapeseed

Oct-12

Brassica carinata oil

Nov-12

Grains and oilseeds

Feb-13

Feb-13

Canada Renewable energy policy

Rapeseed, soybean, sunflower seed

Biofuel

Feb-13

Announced phasing out of biofuel production subsidies by 2017 – drawing attention to the biodiesel industry's inability to meet the national blending target – but committed to continue supporting the development of second generation biofuels. Launched three support programmes focusing on the adaptation to emerging market opportunities, commercialization of new products and technologies, and improved food safety and traceability.

Rapeseed and other agricultural commodities

Mar-13

Sector development assistance

Major policy developments

79 9

Food Outlook - June 2013
POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT Asked top edible oil producers to regularly report their raw material, wholesale and retail prices, thus closely monitoring price trends and inflation risks. Raised state procurement price for rapeseed and soybean to maintain incentives for domestic production. Delayed import approval for second generation GM soy variety meant for direct human consumption. Lowered administrative custom fees for exports and imports to stimulate trade growth. Encouraged futures trading in rapeseed and rapeseed meal (in addition to rapeseed oil). Released state reserves with a view to ease supply tightness, thus checking the rise in domestic oil/meal prices. Introduced stricter quality controls on edible oil imports to guarantee product safety. Relaxed 3-year old ban on rapeseed imports from Australia. Renewed commitment to reach self-sufficiency in grains as a means to tackle rural poverty and food insecurity not extended to oilseeds. Considered removal of remaining import restrictions for rapeseed (introduced in 2009 on phytosanitary grounds). Released state reserves to ease domestic supply tightness and stabilize domestic prices. China agreed to help develop the coconut industry in Sri Lanka, to enhance exportation of coconut-based products to China. Signed trade agreement with the United States, allowing improved access for US soybean products to the local market. Promoted the establishment of a national biodiesel industry based on locally produced jatropha oil. Repealed one-year old tax on fat consumption as it did not produce the changes sought. Extended import duty applied to tropical vegetable oils. DESCRIPTION

8 80
Agreed to provide temporary support to private storage of butter and olive oil to address short-term marketing problems. Declared illegitimate the national bans on GM cultivation introduced by single member States on top of the procedures and regulations established by the European Food Safety Authority. Proposed to limit contribution of first-generation biofuels to the EU transport fuel consumption target at 5 percent by 2020, in an effort to minimize adverse effects on climate and global food production. Considered means to control excessive speculation in commodities futures trading, in particular in food-related commodities. Considered changes to the EU's olive oil marketing regime, focusing on increased quality controls and a possible increase in the trigger price for private storage aid. Introduced mandatory registration of biodiesel imports originating from Argentina and Indonesia in the context of anti-dumping/anti-subsidy investigations. Supported coconut industry rehabilitation through encouragement of planting/replanting activities using improved seedlings.

COUNTRY

PRODUCT

DATE

Edible oils

Aug-12

Market control

Rapeseed soybean

2012 crop year

State reserves

Soybean

Oct-12

GMO policies and regulations

Vegetable oils Dec-12

Import/export policy

Rapeseed

Dec-12

Market regulation

China

Soybean, soyoil

Apr to Nov 2012

State reserves

Vegetable oils Jan-13

Quality standards

Rapeseed

Feb-13

Import policy

Grains

Feb-13

Production support

Rapeseed

Feb-13

Import restrictions

Soybean, rapeseed oil

Feb-13

State reserves

China/Sri Lanka

Coconut products

Dec-12

South-South cooperation

Colombia

Soybean, soy meal, soyoil

Apr-12

Bilateral trade

Cuba (Republic of) Biodiesel

Feb-13

Renewable energy policy

Denmark

Oils and fats

Nov-12

Health policy

Eurasian Economic Edible oils Community (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)

Apr-12

Import policy

Butter, olive oil

Mar-12

Storage aid

GM crops

Oct-12

GMO policies and regulations

European Union

Firstgeneration biofuels

Oct-12

Renewable energy policy

Oilseeds

Oct-12

Market regulation

Olive oil

Nov-12

Market regulation

Biodiesel

Jan-13

Import policy

Fiji

Coconut

Feb-13

Sector development assistance

though setting a fixed minimum export price. Extended. so as to enhance the sector's sustainability and improve livelihood of small coconut farmers. nationwide distribution of imported edible oils at subsidized price and permission to impose limits for private stockholding. Changed method for calculating the base import price for refined palm olein. Republic of Soybean. thereby doubling the level of duties collected. PRODUCT DATE POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Oilseeds Jun and Nov 2012 Refined palm oil Import policy Sector development assistance Production support Consumer protection Export policy Import policy Import policy Supported efforts to launch domestic production and consumption of olive oil. India Olive oil Oct-12 Edible oils. soy meal. now to be based on their actual value. for soybeans. Marketing assistance provided to small coconut producers in Tamil Nadu state. Signed trade agreement with the United States. Continuously adjusted reference prices used for calculating import levies. Temporarily suspended import tax on soybeans to bring down domestic prices for soy food products. vegetable oil and meat) to the nation’s most vulnerable groups. Engaged in discussions about a plan to provide subsidized staple foods (including rice. until end September 2013. Also considered a temporary ban on oilmeal exports. Reinstated import duties on crude vegetable oils and changed method for calculating the base import price for crude palm oil and soyoil. thereby doubling the level of duties collected. state reserves together with fixed procurement and sale prices. so as to stimulate domestic production. allowing improved access for US soybean products to the Korean market. Islamic Republic of Biodiesel Feb-13 Renewable energy policy Korea. Left in place sliding export tax regime used to prevent hikes in consumer prices (via regulation of domestic supplies) and to stimulate growth in downstream palm oil processing. Raised government-set price for palm oil-based biodiesel to further stimulate domestic production. Aug-12 Oilmeals Aug-12 Oilseeds Oct-12 Measures to raise national oilseed production and enhance oil palm cultivation included in 12th Five-Year-Plan (2012-2017). so as to pre-empt under-invoicing by traders. Mandated 2 percent share of locally produced (palm oil-based) biodiesel in total domestic fuel consumption. aiming at both consumer protection and stimulation of domestic production. Considered to establish.COUNTRY Farm support prices Import policy Significantly raised minimum support prices for summer (kharif) as well as winter (rabi) oilcrops in an effort to stimulate domestic production and slow import growth. Reiterated plan to set up public reserves of soybeans with a view to regulate domestic supplies and stabilize consumer prices. Revoked logging permit of one oil palm company for infringing environmental regulations. based on locally produced jatropha oil and food processing wastes. oilseeds Oct-12 Edible oils Oct-12 and Jan-13 Vegetable oil Oct-12 to Mar-13 Crude Jan-13 vegetable oils Marketing support Renewable energy policy Export policy Import policy Industry support Market regulation / state reserves Environmental Renewable energy policy Market regulation / state reserves Copra Feb-13 Biofuel Apr-12 Palm Oil Apr-12 to Mar-13 Soybean Aug to Dec 2012 Oil palm Aug-12 Soybean Oct-12 Indonesia Oil palm Oct-12 Biodiesel Jan-13 Soybean Feb-13 Coconut Feb-13 Sector development assistance Staple foods Feb-13 Consumer support Iran. Barred palm oil plantations from using state subsidized petrol. Move aims to protect farmers and encourage domestic production. Liberalized exportation of edible oils in branded consumer packs. Move aims to protect domestic refiners from low priced imports. also considered requiring traders to match soybean imports with purchases from local sources. Promoted the establishment of a national biodiesel industry. Suspended duties on oilmeal imports on concerns over renewed food price inflation. soyoil Apr-12 Bilateral trade Major policy developments 81 1 . now to be based on its actual value. Launched new public-private partnership to strengthen smallholder coconut farming.

Renewed commitment to support the development of the oil palm sector. with aim to pursue environmental objectives and increase domestic palm oil consumption. aiming at the development of a sustainable certified coconut oil supply chain. Enforced retail price cap and hoarding prohibition for palm oil to protect consumers. DESCRIPTION Raised duty free export quota for crude palm oil with a view to check build-up in domestic stocks and support farmgate prices. Supported the launch of two national schemes for the certification of sustainably produced palm oil. Considered taxing exports of soybeans with a view to encourage shipment of value-added soyoil and soymeal. to expire without renewal. sunflower Oct-12 Russian Federation Soybean Apr to Aug 2012 Export policy Saudi Arabia Biodiesel Feb-13 Renewable energy policy Tanzania Oil palm Aug-12 Sector development assistance Palm oil Apr to May Consumer protection 2012 Coconut Nov-12 Sector development assistance Thailand Biofuel Nov-12 Biofuel regulation Palm oil Dec-12 Producer support / consumer protection Palm oil Jan-13 Market regulation . Lowered export tax on crude palm oil to check build-up in domestic stocks. Periodically adjusted export taxes in line with the newly introduced sliding tax regime. and introduced a temporary tax on palm oil exports to prevent shortages in domestic supplies. Raised mandatory fuel blending rate (with palm oil-based biodiesel) to 5 percent.Food Outlook . Launched new oil palm replanting scheme with the immediate objective of halting the rise in domestic palm oil stocks and the longer term goal of raising the average level of productivity. Endorsed establishment of a national biodiesel industry using used cooking oil as feedstock. Cut the catch quota cut for the key fishing months of December-January 2012/13 to allow repopulation. Accepted to take palm oil into public stock to stem a fall in farmgate price. Established a minimum price range for oil palm fruit purchases by palm oil factories so as to protect farmers. Launched new oil palm replanting scheme with the immediate objective of halting the rise in domestic palm oil stocks and the longer term goal of raising the average level of productivity. Introduced temporary export limitations for soybean and sunflower and provided financial assistance to farmers after drought decimated domestic crops. Raised purchase price of sunflower seed with a view to stimulate domestic production growth. Allowed government programme in support of biodiesel production. eventually securing domestic production and preventing surges in consumer prices. including investment aids and subsidized sales of domestically produced biodiesel. which push down farmgate prices. Moved to nationwide implementation of 5 percent mandatory fuel blending rate (palm oil-based biodiesel) and considered introducing 10 percent rate by end 2013. Discontinued duty free export quotas for crude palm oil with a view to secure adequate supplies for refiners.June 2013 POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT Market regulation / export policy Market regulation / export policy Market regulation / export policy Production support Environmental policy Production policy Export policy Renewable energy policy Renewable energy policy Environmental policy Market regulation Renewable energy policy Support price Export policy Resource management Sector development assistance Emergency relief Enforced environmental laws regarding pollution control in palm oil mills. and introduced sliding tax regime where level of taxation follows the prevailing market price. thus contributing to price stabilization. Lowered tariffs on crude and refined vegetable/animal oils and fats in an effort to control domestic food price inflation. Launched new public-private partnership to strengthen smallholder coconut farming. Announced plans to shift to 10 percent mandatory blending by mid-2014. thus reducing export availabilities. Issued 5-year action plan for the development of national coconut production. 8 82 COUNTRY PRODUCT DATE Palm Oil Aug-12 Palm Oil Oct-12 Palm oil Oct-12 Palm Oil Oct-12 Palm Oil Oct-12 Malaysia Palm Oil Nov-12 Palm oil Nov-12 to Mar-13 Biofuel Jan-13 Biodiesel Feb-13 Palm oil Feb-13 Mexico Oils and fats Oct-12 New Zealand Biofuel Oct-12 Pakistan Sunflower Nov-12 Paraguay Soybean Nov-12 Peru Fish meal and Dec-12 oil Philippines Coconut Feb-13 Serbia Soybean. Temporarily lowered export duty on soybeans to facilitate exportation following a bumper crop.

Provided financial assistance to producers of biofuel and to entities conducting research on advanced biofuels. through the 2013 crop-growing season.COUNTRY Sought access to Chinese soybean import market under government-to-government loan-for-crop deal. Signed trade agreement with the Republic of Korea. i. securing improved access for soybean products to the Colombian market. especially those based on non-edible feedstocks. Considered charging “emergency import tariffs” on refined soy and palm oil to prevent rising imports from hurting domestic producers. Major policy developments 83 3 . oil and meal to reflect weakening domestic market prices. meeting the 50 percent GHG reduction threshold required to qualify under US bioenergy policies. soybean and sugar beet. in order to guarantee speculative futures positions for all commodities. Provided assistance to farmers affected by exceptional drought. securing improved access for soybean products to the Korean market. PRODUCT DATE POLICY CATEGORY/INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Soybeans Oct-12 Export policy Ukraine Sunflower Feb-13 Market regulation Soybean Feb-13 Production support Soybean. in particular in food-related commodities. soyoil Apr-12 Bilateral trade Soybean. Granted retroactive federal tax credit for biodiesel for all of 2012. Raised margin participants need to deposit. Approved oil of camelina seed as biodiesel feedstock. Adapted federal crop insurance programme to specific needs of farmers growing high-oleic rapeseed.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Oilseeds. Considered means to control excessive speculation in commodities futures trading. Signed trade agreement with Colombia. Extended subsidization of crop insurance to maize.e. and extended up to end 2013. soy meal. soy meal. soyoil Apr-12 Bilateral trade Grains and oilseeds Apr-12 Market regulation Biofuel Apr-12 to Jan-13 Renewable energy policy United States Agricultural commodities Aug-12 Emergency relief Biofuel Oct-12 Biofuel regulation Grains and oilseeds Oct-12 Market regulation Biodiesel Dec-12 Tax credit Agricultural commodities Jan-13 Agricultural policy Rapeseed Feb-13 Production support Camelina oil Feb-13 Renewable energy policy Vietnam Refined soy. Provisionally extended 2008-2012 Farm Bill for nine months. Provided incentives for the development of soybean production.%20 oils%20and%20meals. with the exception of some programmes such as the conservation scheme and emergency relief measures. Raised the required amount of bio-based diesel to be incorporated into the national fuel market in 2013.fao. palm oil Jan-13 Import policy Zimbabwe Soybean Nov-12 Sector development assistance * A collection of major oilseed policy developments starting in January 2011 is available at: http://www. Adjusted downward the minimum prices of sunflower seed.

5 percent.2 million tonnes of sugar. abolished mechanism which required mills to sell specified quota of sugar. Dec-Mar production quota lowered to 6.0 percent to 0. Jan-13 Taxes and quotas Mar-13 Apr-13 Taxes and quotas Quotas May-13 Mar-13 Export subsidy and taxes Import duties SUGAR: MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS: JANUARY 2013 . 281/2013 sets measures with respect to the release of out-of-quota sugar and isoglucose on the EU market at reduced surplus levy during the 2012-2013 marketing year.4 million tonnes of non-levy sugar from April to September in the open market.Food Outlook . The Customs Union of Russia.MID-MAY 2013* COUNTRY PRODUCT GROUP PRODUCT Brazil Sugar Ethanol European Union Sugar Sugar and isoglucose Sugar Sugar India Sugar Sugar Sugar Sugar Bilateral/ Multilateral Sugar Sugar Pakistan Sugar Sugar * A collection of major sugar policy developments starting in January 2013 is also available at: http://www.June 2013 8 84 DATE May-13 Mar-13 Taxes and quotas Blend ratio POLICY CATEGORY/ INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Government of Brazil increased the amount of ethanol blended into gasoline from 20 percent to 25 percent. Federal excise duty lowered by Federal Board of Revenue on domestic sugar sales from 8.fao. Freight subsidy of Rs 1.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Sugar . Government eases penalty for conversion of unsold sugar into levy sugar in the given period of release from December to March. Belarus and Kazakhstan doubled the raw sugar import duty to US$205 per tonne starting from May 2013. Removed levy quota mechanism under which sugar mills had to sell 10 percent of production at below market prices for Public Distribution System. Also.75/kg ($18/tonne) approved by the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) for the export of up to 1.80 million tonnes. Adopted on 22 March 2013.65 million tonnes from 6. 1234/2007. Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No. Millers permitted to sell 10. EUR 172/tonne fixed as surplus levy for a maximum quantity of 150 000 tonnes of sugar (in white sugar equivalent) and 8 000 tonnes of isoglucose (dry matter) produced in excess of the quota fixed in Regulation No.

France and the Netherlands. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country.MAY 2013* Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country. The non-refundable national levy (expected to be worth more than CAD 600 000) has been authorized to continue providing industry stability through funding national marketing. Suspended the import of poultry from Australia following notification from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) about infectious diseases affecting poultry in the country. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country. Restricted meat exports to Venezuela to prevent domestic shortages and rising domestic prices. Lifted its ban on imports of beef from the US. poultry and ready meat products containing pork from Germany. Suspended temporarily the import of chicken products from China as a precaution against the H7N9 avian influenza. MAJOR RICE POLICY DEVELOPMENTS: NOVEMBER 2012 . Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan: Approved veterinary certificate for export of poultry from USA to the Customs Union. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country.MEAT: DATE Import ban Import ban Import ban lifted Import ban lifted Animal health regulations State market intervention Import ban lifted Export ban Import ban Export ban Import ban Import ban Import ban Import ban lifted Import ban Import ban Import ban Import ban Import ban Import ban lifted Import ban Import ban Lifted the ban on the import of poultry meat from Czech Republic. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country. Banned imports of poultry and poultry products from China in connection with the spread of the new H7N9 virus in China. Lifted the ban on poultry products imported from the Chinese Province of Taiwan after global health authorities declared it free of the bird flu virus. Suspended beef exports to the EU while it investigates supply chain weaknesses identified by a European veterinary mission. imposed in 2003 after a US cow tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). POLICY CATEGORY/ INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION Imposed temporary restrictions on the import of poultry and poultry product from Bulgaria to prevent a spread of Newcastle disease. Lifted the ban it had imposed in early January on the import of pork. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country. promotion and research activities. Beef Feb-13 Chile Beef Apr-13 China Beef Dec-12 Colombia Meat Apr-13 Egypt Beef Dec-12 Indonesia Poultry Dec-12 Japan Beef Dec-12 Beef Feb-13 Jordan Beef Jan-13 Kyrgyzstan Poultry Apr-13 Malaysia Poultry Apr-13 Peru Beef Jan-13 Poultry Nov-12 Philippines Poultry Nov-13 Qatar Beef Jan-13 Republic of Korea Beef Dec-12 Major policy developments 85 5 . Ended its ban on US beef and beef products. Suspended temporarily the importation of poultry and other poultry products from Australia because of the recent outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). COUNTRY PRODUCT Beef Jan-13 Poultry Jan-13 Belarus Pigmeat. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country. poultry Mar-13 Poultry Apr-13 Bilateral/Multilateral Poultry Feb-13 Canada Beef Apr-13 Extended the national beef levy until 30 June 2015.

on claims that various companies from Brazil did not meet pork safety indicators required by Ukrainian law. The move was based on the presence of the banned growth promoter. Thailand partially relaxed the measure in 2006. Announced a record allocation of UAH 650 million (USD 80.Food Outlook . pigs May-13 United Arab Emirates Poultry Feb-13 Vietnam Poultry Apr-13 * A collection of major meat policy developments starting in January 2011 is available at: http://www. which promotes leanness in animals raised for their meat. Banned imports of pork from Brazil. pigmeat. pork and products made of it from Belarus.4 million) from the state budget to be invested in support of the livestock sector in 2013. the disbursement of subsidies from the 2013 federal budget to agricultural producers and animal breeders. citing unclear origin of the meat. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country.June 2013 DATE Import ban Import ban Restricted temporarily imports from the one specific poultry farm in Ukraine. misrepresentation of the meat products. POLICY CATEGORY/ INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION 8 86 Import ban Import ban lifted State market intervention Import ban Import ban Import ban Import ban Import ban lifted State market intervention Import ban Export ban Import ban Import ban Import ban COUNTRY PRODUCT Poultry Jan-13 Meat Feb-13 Beef. but kept a ban in place on beef and beef products coming from a number of EU member states. Banned poultry imports from Bulgaria to prevent the entry of epidemic diseases . Banned the imports of frozen pork and beef. Suspended poultry imports from China after detection of the new avian influenza strain H7N9. in a first concrete step towards lifting a ban on meat imports from three southern Brazilian states. ractopamine.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Meat .77 billion (USD 221 million). ractopamine. due to the possible outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in a district of Belarus. lack of monitoring of chemical ingredients and contamination. after Canadian farmers were granted permission to use Paylean and Optaflexx as dietary growth promotants. Lifted the ban on imports of beef products from the EU which was imposed in 2001 after the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). pigmeat Apr-13 Beef Apr-13 Saudi Arabia Beef Dec-12 South Africa Beef Dec-12 Thailand Beef Feb-13 Livestock Jan-13 Pigmeat Mar-13 Ukraine Poultry May-13 Pigmeat. in the products. allegedly. Suspended imports of Brazilian beef due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the country. Banned almost all imports of Mexican beef because of concerns that Mexican producers had not complied with a commitment to refrain from using the animal feed additive. Banned imports of chilled pork. poultry Feb-13 Russia Poultry Mar-13 Livestock Mar-13 Beef. Approved. as well as turkey meat and by-products from the US. Suspended exports of chicken meat to the Russian Federation from two producing firms while investigating a Russian allegation of contamination. Banned imports of pigs.with Resolution Nr 338. Approved imports of poultry from two processing plants in Brazil. excessively lax food safety controls. The subsidies amount to RUB 6. and introduced enhanced laboratory control of products coming from a another company. Banned virtually all beef and pork from Canada. beef and poultry from Germany for.fao.

Lifted the ban on the export of milk and cream. New Zealand-US: agreement signed between New Zealand and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that recognizes their respective food safety systems Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan: Customs Union increased the import duties on certain types of cheese by 5–10 percent Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking. The provisions became effective from 1 January 2013.000 tonne import quota for milk powder imported from Most Favoured Nations (MFN) as part of its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments.DAIRY: DATE Tariff rate quota POLICY CATEGORY/ INSTRUMENT DESCRIPTION MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS: NOVEMBER 2012 . The preferential tariff quota. subject to an import duty of 2 percent. requesting public comments on possible changes to the Dairy TRQ Licensing Program.fao. COUNTRY PRODUCT Brazil Dairy products Apr-13 Bulgaria Export ban lifted TRQ revised Export ban lifted Ban Import quota Import quota Dairy products Jan-13 Marketing and Trade Dairy products Nov-12 India Milk powder Nov-12 Iraq Milk. dairy whitener and infant milk foods. Announced it will allow a total of 44 200 metric tonnes of dairy product preparations (dairy blends) to be imported from any country under a mixed allocation (direct and public bid) scheme. Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) imposed a ban on the sale of raw milk. Lifted import ban on milk and dairy products from Egypt. Dairy products Import duties Dairy TRQ Dec-12 Free trade agreement Bilateral/Multilateral Milk. whole milk powder.org/economic/est/est-commodities/commodity-policy-archive/en/?groupANDcommodity=Milk. is valid for a 12-month period.MAY 2013* Established a tariff rate quota (TRQ) on lactose products for 4 476 tonnes. Introduced a regulation to limit production of dairy products containing vegetable oil (palm oil) ingredients. Revised tariff rate quota on skim milk powder to permit imports up to 10 000 MT at a 15 percent tariff rate. which had been in place for several months on sanitary grounds. concentrated and/or sweetened milk and cream. introduced to help alleviate the high production costs facing Brazil’s swine and dairy industry. Dairy products Apr-13 Kenya Raw milk Jan-13 Dairy products Dec-12 Mexico Milk powder Dec-12 Bilateral/Multilateral Milk. Dairy products Mar-13 USA Dairy products Feb-13 * A collection of major dairy policy developments starting in January 2012 is available at: http://www. The out-of-quota import tariff remains 16 percent. Announced opening of a duty free 80.%20 Dairy%20products Major policy developments 87 7 .

June 2013 Statistical appendix tables Appendix Table 1 (a) & (b) Cereal statistics Appendix Table 2 (a) & (b) Wheat statistics Appendix Table 3 (a) & (b) Coarse grains statistics Appendix Table 4 (a) & (b) Maize statistics Appendix Table 5 (a) & (b) Barley statistics Appendix Table 6 (a) & (b) Sorghum statistics Appendix Table 7 (a) & (b) Other Coarse grains statistics Appendix Table 8 (a) & (b) Rice statistics Appendix Table 9 Cereal supply and utilization in main exporting countries Appendix Table 10 Total oilcrops statistics Appendix Table 11 Total oils and fats statistics Appendix Table 12 Total meals and cakes statistics Appendix Table 13 Sugar statistics Appendix Table 14 Total meat statistics Appendix Table 15 Bovine meat statistics Appendix Table 16 Ovine meat statistics Appendix Table 17 Pigmeat statistics Appendix Table 18 Poultry meat statistics Appendix Table 19 Milk and milk products statistics Appendix Table 20 Fish and fishery products statistics Appendix Table 21 Selected international prices for wheat and coarse grains Appendix Table A22 Wheat and maize futures prices Appendix Table 23 Selected international prices for rice and price indices Appendix Table 24 Selected international prices for oilcrop products and price indices Appendix Table 25 Selected international prices for sugar and sugar price index Appendix Table 26 Selected international prices for milk products and dairy price indices Appendix Table 27 Selected international meat prices Appendix Table 28 Selected international meat prices and FAO meat price index Appendix Table 29 Fish price indices Appendix Table 30 Selected international commodity prices 90-91 92-93 94-95 96-97 98-99 100-101 100-101 102-103 104 105 106 107 108s 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 123 8 88 .Food Outlo Outlook o o k .

expressed in raw equivalents.e. unless otherwise stated. • Estimates of world imports and exports may not always match. The designation “Developed” and “Developing” economies is intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily or of its authorities. The countries shown in the tables were chosen based on their importance of either production or trade in each region. The LIFDCs include 62 countries that are net importers of basic foodstuffs with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for International Development Aid (IDA) assistance (i. Data relate to the October/September season. USD 1 915 in 2010). sugar derived from sugar cane or beet. all charts and tables refer to FAO data as source. territory. dairy and meat products: The time reference period is January/ December. unless otherwise stated. Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR. DISCLAIMER Stocks • Cereals: Data refer to carry-overs at the close of national crop seasons ending in the year shown.NOTES Statistical appendix a p p endix General • FAO estimates and forecasts are based on official and unofficial sources. or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. • Wheat: Trade data include wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country. Utilization • Cereals: Data are on individual country’s marketing year basis. • Coarse grains: The time reference period is July/June. • All totals are computed from unrounded data. city or area COUNTRY CLASSIFICATION Production • Cereals: Data refer to the calendar year in which the whole harvest or bulk of harvest takes place. • Regional totals may include estimates for countries not listed. In the presentation of statistical material. countries are subdivided according to geographical location as well as into the following two main economic groupings: “developed countries” (including the developed market economies and the transition markets) and “developing countries” (including the developing market economies and the Asia centrally planned countries). The totals shown for Central America include countries in the Caribbean. The list is reviewed every three years by the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations. • Sugar: Figures refer to centrifugal 89 9 . the European Union includes 27 member states. unless otherwise stated. express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. unless otherwise stated. • Unless otherwise stated. • Up to 2012/13. The time reference period is July/June. mainly because shipments and deliveries do not necessarily occur in the same marketing year. The LDCs group currently includes 49 countries with low income as well as weak human resources and low level of economic diversification. • Tonnes refer to metric tonnes. oils and fats and meals and sugar: The time reference period is October/September. For 2013/14. • Oilseeds. References are also made to special country groupings: Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs). Least Developed Countries (LDCs). • ‘-‘ means nil or negligible. Trade • Trade between European Union member states is excluded. • Estimates for China also include those for the Taiwan Province. • Rice. • Sugar: Figures refer to centrifugal sugar derived from sugar cane or beet. unless otherwise stated. Data relate to the October/September season. the European Union includes 28 member states. expressed in raw equivalents.

5 306.6 1.7 4.6 47.1 228.6 17.7 19.5 0.Food Outlo Outlook o o k .3 25.8 27. million tonnes .June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 1(A): CEREAL STATISTICS .8 0.1 3.2 77.9 52.1 86.8 8.2 9.6 8.2 6.8 14.6 2. .5 59.8 4.0 6. . .9 34.6 81.8 55.8 2.1 12.2 15. .4 3. . .2 15.0 2.5 25.4 45. . .1 8.2 8.9 1.1 2.9 5. .3 21.0 11.3 11.1 153. .2 26.1 86.5 71. .1 103.9 14.7 4.6 13. .3 2.9 33.1.4 2.7 23.2 0.0 0.2 90.5 137.3 25.8 27.5 8.7 444. .4 19.7 38.3 22.7 78.2 5.5 8. .9 0.0 64.9 166.6 27.2 0.1 24. .6 6.0 4. .7 3.2 62.9 9. . .8 7.9 82.1 31. .2 1.1 306.1 9. Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.3 150.4 3.5 1 092.7 25.1 0.8 9.3 12.6 3.2 3.0 2.6 0.2 63.8 2 294.4 439.4 0.2 487.0 9.1 4. .6 9. .6 5. .4 306.4 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Morocco Nigeria South Africa Sudan CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 9 90 .) ASIA Bangladesh China India Indonesia Iran.4 22.1 0.2 9.8 34.0 33. .2 29.9 399.1 0.1 21.8 1 403.2 36.7 18.1 0. .9 502.9 5.7 21.4 1.1 0.8 12.8 2.5 153.2 236.1 5.6 4.0 1.5.8 3.1 306.4 8.3 8.2 1.4 37.5 72.2 8. .1 13.6 3.2 168.4 36. .0 24.1 0.1 78.8 2.4 164.4 25.8 14. .8 15.1 1.5 31.1 8. 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.4 3.3 1. .5 69.2 0.0 4. Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Kazakhstan Korea.1 46. .6 4.8 8.3 33.6 3.8 0. . .4 5.2 0.3 0. .3 3.5 46.0 37.9 2.7 28.4 906.0 17.6 25.5 288.8 0.8 25.5 6.3 3.2 17.2 0.7 0.6 27.6 3.8 5.4 23.0 1 305.2 9.3 21. .3 3.2 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 24.0 25. .8 8. .2 43. . .1 219. .1 124.2 6.2 22.0 5.8 33.7 1.3 10.8 61.6 354.5 19.3 34. .8 226.7 7.6 0.4 293.4 24.5 19.3 94.1 9.3 0.8 1.2 1.9 41.0 3.2 459.0 2.2 28. .3 4.5 14.2 1.3 447. .0 19.3 5. Republic of Myanmar Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 1 027. .9 3.3 26.0 21.8 4.7 35.6 158.3 40.1 0.9 39.2 0.5 3.3 1.6 0.6 5. .2 289.5 275. .0 23.5 21.6 163.1 474. .1 0.7 8.3 0.6 17.5 1.2 13.1 5.4 22.5 25.0 0.2 6. . .0 3.9 2.3 2.2 18.3 9.2 29. .4 1 111.5 1. .4 7.8 1.1 29.1 0. .9 3. .0 38.4 0.5 2 460.9 0. .2 2. .9 63. .0 0.2 3.9 24.6 55.3 4.7 33. .2 1.8 2.2 21.2.9 73.8 34.6 168.0 1.0 33.0 0.1 8.3 83. .2 36.8 2. . .5 20.4 25.4 419.2 3.4 29.9 0. .1 0.3 14.0 17.1 7. .6 25.8 5.3 54.8 541.6 25.0 0. .5 0. .9 40.2 0.*.6 0.9 8.5 238.1 66. .6 1.4 67.3 0.0 0.5 55.4 0.1 406.9 2.3 7.6 1.0 2 309.4 49.> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim. .4 543.6 14.2 19.1 4. .7 89.1 293.3.3 16.0 51. .8 14.7 19.1 988.1. 2013/14 f’cast (.3 3.0 33.3 5.4 21.8 18.2 0.9 3. .7 1 026.6 7.3 13.7 241.5 181. .3 5.0 68. .5 69.0 6.7 8.9 1.1 7.9 4.3 0.4 8.9 0.5 0.7 15.1 1.3 23.5 39. .1 0.2 63. .9 1.4 22.4 64. .6 3. .4 5.0 20. .4 0.4 155.7 17.0 3. .1 24.8 34.6 3. . .4 414.1 0.5 20.6 192.1 0.3 3.5 1 433.2 0.5 7.9 70.0 203.1 17.9 7.4.0 6.4 24.8 478.3 4.8 144.2 113.

0 274. . .5 150.3 1.9 6.6 21.4 145.2 39.7 5.8 7.8 7.9 164.5 8.0 123.5 206.9 3.5 28.8 589.4 8.5 128.7 47.0 18.7 131. . .6 1.0 54. .8 33.1.7 200.0 226.9 233.2 14. .9 190.0 133.1 36.4 599.6 9.0 2. . Republic of Myanmar Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 1 104.1 1 423.7 2 333.5 0.1 6.3 21.9 137. .3 15.5 32.7 23.3 5.2 24.8 64. .2. . .1 4.2 160.7 38.1 33. .7 2.4 6.9 128. .4 92.5 156.9 15.5 9.0 109.2 4.9 4. .8 13.9 36.2 252.0 6.5 19.3 28. .8 13.8 156.9 161. million tonnes .6 132.0 20.6 109.1 36.8 0.9 117.0 132.6 26. .4 128.3 2.8 5.2 20.7 243.6 0.6 64.1 169.8 29.0 30.0 2.2 230. .2 72. .0 14.4 24.1 3.0 146.7 7.0 3.0 106.8 197.1 7.9 109.3 3.4 30.4 144. .8 35. .4 9.2 133.APPENDIX TABLE 1(B): CEREAL STATISTICS .2 224.0 2 402.5 17.7 50.1.5 7. .2 15.5 38.3 3.3 9.7 8.2 156. .4 198.1 103.3 193.4 346.9 151.7 5.7 36.3 5. .7 152.9 510.4 68. .1 1.6 106.6 120. .) (. .1 13.9 151.2 151.9 135.5 223.8 5.7 69.5 103.0 48.7 397.9 121.1 270.3 4.3 193.6 131.9 12. .0 15.8 163.7 2 280.0 3.9 403.2 8.8 7.0 1 538.7 1 165.2 39.2 11.9 1.9 338.8 137. .2 220.0 139.1 31.0 351.5 303.5 28.7 2.3 8. .4 9.5 137.9 194.6 367.4.8 63.2 21.2 148.9 1.9 272.2 1 497.9 107.2 23.4 169.2 1.6 9.7 207.7 10.0 100.8 208.6 140.1 28.5 162.5 177.7 1.4 5.6 368.4 30.0 9.3 128.2 4.9 1.4 18. .8 145.4 96.4 7.7 153.8 42.8 1 195.9 120.5 2. . .5 29.3 153.4 1.0 163.7 200.6 136. . .7 146.4 164.5 4.2 7. .9 4.5 232.9 134. .7 5.5 33.1 15.*.2 151.6 863.8 393.7 4. . . .9 114.0 5.4 3.1 13.8 185.6 2.5 120.8 149.0 233.1 4.8 34.4 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Morocco Nigeria South Africa Sudan CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 91 1 .5 17.2 137.6 17.2 13.1 101.4 11.6 476.3 14.5 494.7 32.8 161. .3 13.5 29.2 175.4 60.1 66.7 10.7 7. .5 166.7 29.0 4.7 4.1 856.4 158.9 393. Kg/year .2 4.0 148.4 17.> Total Utilization 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. .5 157.1 4.4 145.8 225.1 5.6 2.5 129.2 1.4 69.3 0.7 316.3 213.1 13.8 177.9 4.9 42. .6 33.2 7.1 123.2 206.8 3.3 0.1 281.4 152.8 11.9 23.3 51.8 11.3 5.8 153. .8 33.5 15.3 161.0 514.1 106.1 15.4 835. .3 3.0 1.2 161. .4 215.9 4.9 174.6 18.4 154.6 279.5 252.0 131.) 160.4 7.3 198.9 131.4 10.7 30.7 136.5.2 12.6 28.5 67.1 31.9 123.5 5.8 244. .1 2.1 4.5 8.7 7.0 118.9 2.7 188.9 243.5 96.1 129.5 142.9 151.0 445.5 168.0 358.0 14.7 145. .8 67.1 49.6 159.4 4.0 0.1 46.6 108.0 151. .6 182. .1 206.1 4.6 3.7 272.3 9. .3 108.9 35.9 73. .0 208.4 10.7 161.4 4.9 1.0 353. 2013/14 f’cast (.7 0. .0 172.5 5.6 152.8 163.8 153.5 329.6 5.5 20.8 412.8 115.6 1.7 163.7 137.4 141.5 4. .7 198. .8 21.3.9 35. .0 171.2 162. Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Kazakhstan Korea.0 108.5 120.5 137. .9 23.5 5.5 34.0 4.6 67.5 5.2 225.0 180.7 170.4 93.0 115.6 91.7 2.6 5.2 74. .0 1.7 4.5 9.1 1.2 568. .3 187.4 27.1 146.3 158.9 557.7 72.1 14.5 63.7 133.6 148.7 175. Statistical appendix a p p endix Stocks ending in 2010-2012 average 2013 estim.2 35.3 250.0 37.9 218.2 96.5 ASIA Bangladesh China India Indonesia Iran.1 1. Per caput food use 2014 f’cast 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 2012/13 average estim.5 15. .9 1.8 78.1 11.2 7.7 162.8 134.0 19.

7 1.9 9.5 8.4 6.5 3. .2 0.4 22. .1 6.2 - 20.4 29.7 108.0 220. .1 0.0 2.5 2.0 5.0 139.0 1.1 113.1 0.1.8 3.*.8 0.1 3.5 1.9 1. .8 22.) ASIA Bangladesh China of which Taiwan Prov.2 114.7 14. .0 20. .4 7.0 46. .5 1.5 0.7 16.0 0.3 11. . .8 5.8 9.9 12. .1 0.1 3.7 15.7 0.8 24.7 358.8 0.5 0.0 0. . . .4 25.1 0.5 1.6 5.1 0.5 8. .June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 2(A): WHEAT STATISTICS .8 5. . .2 5.9 0.0 702.2 12.6 0.5 28.0 3.6 3.8 13.2 1. .6 1.1 3.3 47.7 4.3 3.8 21.0 121. Republic of Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Thailand Turkey 300. .Food Outlo Outlook o o k .3 0.4 18.2 5. . .3 24.2 17.5 0.8 327.1 0.7 139.3 14.0 0.2 310.8 8.3. million tonnes .8 1.5 10.2 2.1 58.0 42. Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Kazakhstan Korea.9 31.2 - AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Morocco Nigeria South Africa Tunisia CENTRAL AMERICA Cuba Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 9 92 .2 3.8 11.9 40.7 1.3 37.1 0. .2 61.7 318.0 28.2 85.2 3.1 20.5 0. .3 0.7 51.2 0.2 11. . .1 1.6 0.1 0. .9 14.1 21.9 62.5 1.1 0.8 3.7 6.5 2.0 16.8 0.2 1.2 3.2 0.5 12. .0 55.4 1.4 6.9 115. .5 0.3 8.2 24.3 7.0 18.2 8.4 3.8 20. .5 0.6 137.4 3.1 0. .3 0.8 2.9 82. .2 2.1 5.0 26.1 2.9 322. .0 18. .3 3.7 131. .7 21.8 0. .0 18. . .0 5.0 5.8 3. India Indonesia Iran.5 3.7 139.2 15.9 46. .7 3. . .8 7.8 191.3 127.1 24. . .6 1.5 0.4 20.2 3.2 4. .6 1.3 6. .3 1.6 0.2 28. .0 26.9 7. .8 23.4.2 1.6 9.7 6.2 3.4 6.4 56.1 127.8 93.2 0.8 4.1 0.5 0.6 1.2 3.7 24.8 0.4 39. . .9 1.5 1.2 2.6 14.9 1. .9 13.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 35.7 1.4 0.5 1.0 3. .0 27.2 3.0 0.8 3.3 45.6 5.2 89.1 6.2 2.1 331.2 0. .9 0.0 343. 2013/14 f’cast (.5 3.5 53. .8 20.7 8.7 1.7 3.0 0.1 0.4 8.6 24.3 0.0 3.0 22.7 26.0 9.9 14.7 3.1 17.4 7.> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim.9 6.5 3.5 107. .8 2.6 1.4 6.6 3. .3 217.1 0.5 1.3 0.4 3. 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.4 0.8 1.0 64.0 19.8 3.0 17.1 1.2.6 45.0 120.0 3.4 0.5. .2 3.0 359.1.0 39.9 1.4 1.2 0. . .8 4.1 1.9 1.7 19.6 94.5 1.0 4.7 0.2 0.4 1.2 20.5 0.4 8.5 26.0 106.8 10. . . .1 659.8 3.8 3.0 1.0 3. Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.5 15.8 5.7 29. . .3 0.3 2.4 134.7 7. .5 6.3 0.4 0.7 13.0 0.0 1.8 35.5 0.4 0.5 12.9 2.1 0.4 0.5 14. .5 4. .1 26.8 2. .6 0.4 7.0 0.7 11. .0 0.4 5. .4 680. .5 10.0 25.8 1.3 6.8 8.1 7.0 2. .2 20.3 14. .7 136.0 2.7 133.2 63. .2 83.5 1.1 0.4 9.1 0.1 8. .0 136.8 113. . .5 0.5 18. . .1 0.5 0.8 3.5 1.0 20. .2 113.

Statistical appendix a p p endix Stocks ending in 2013/14 f’cast Per caput food use 2014 f’cast 2010-2012 average 2013 estim.2 14.2 0.> Total Utilization 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.4 81. Republic of Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Thailand Turkey 341.4 8.9 1.) 64.3 12.2 44.8 21.9 44.5 8.9 3.7 121.2 6.4 41.5 4.7 25.2 421.5 8.7 18.1 60.9 ASIA Bangladesh China of which Taiwan Prov.3 185.6 37. .6 36.6 164.3 216.4 0.6 17.4 357.2 4.5 7.7 27.4 3.5 3.5 6.9 39. . .0 199.3 101.4 51.5 110.0 68.4 6.2 64.5.5 7.3 0.4 1.7 0.7 15.9 12. .0 18.4 21. . .9 166.6 1.8 18.6 3.3 50.0 1.8 6.0 182.7 38.8 1.6 17.1 11.8 81. .4 86.6 1.2 122.1 116.5 59.0 4.9 3.5 64.2 27.6 13.6 110.0 16. .1 1.0 96.4 2.6 42.2 24.5 211. .9 5.4 199.5 64.2 30. .9 3. .8 4.5 0.7 81.0 2.5 3. .9 0. .0 0.2 199.8 0.4 26. .8 0.3 50.9 2.2 0. .0 3.2 105.3 146.7 45.1 100.9 107.3 82.4 56.2 27.7 5.3 50.8 27.0 31.8 1.9 45.1 10. .8 3.9 6.5 25.3 0.3 113.4 44. .0 1.2 3.1 185.0 7.9 4. .5 0.7 1.8 3. .9 183.8 24.4 57.1 61.4 84. . .0 18.4 95. 2013/14 f’cast (.4 1.2 1.1 124. .6 9.5 0.0 5.8 112.1 79.2 1.6 173.0 1.1 59.5 27.9 2.5 3.2 0.3 12.8 27.7 6.8 106.8 1.5 141.0 10.1 63.5 6.3 15.8 79. .1 6.3 44. .7 26.4 0. .7 16.2 265.1 1.0 6.8 0.9 52.9 56.8 19.1 0.8 50.9 43.0 7.4 0.9 19.7 3.9 2.2 0.4 116.6 2. .0 63.6 5.1 3.2 124.4 100.9 0.2 117. .4 21.1.9 6.3 0.1 1.6 37.5 110.3 16.7 12.1 125.4 56.4 0.3 50.2 1.1 0.9 5.9 0.1 19.1 48.7 59.3 78.1 1.4 32.1 166.4 7.9 57.5 0.9 20.0 269.*.5 27. .9 4.8 6.8 0.9 3.0 64.7 67. .4 126.1 1.0 5.2 1.0 5.3 19.1 1.6 121.7 25.8 52.4 47. .7 63.6 0. . .1 119. .1 5.5 5.8 358.2 10.0 66.5 404.0 2.2 0.1 59.1 5.4 2.2 24.8 12.2 25.6 125.4 1.0 2.9 0.7 92. .7 81.3 141.8 6.9 112.2 35. .0 210. million tonnes .6 183.0 693.9 8.0 67. .5 9.7 168.) (.3 2.1 108.2 3. .3 60.1.7 20.1 3.1 199.2 56.5 9.6 17.7 2. .8 19.4 124.1 183.7 60.6 25. .0 3.9 0.8 1. .9 44.5 266.0 64.2.4 7.7 39.5 42.APPENDIX TABLE 2(B): WHEAT STATISTICS .9 199.9 26.1 3. .8 8.2 80. .1 1.3 196.6 176.7 3. .5 60.3 146.8 424.3 48.5 8.2 5.4 47.6 47. .5 141. Kg/year . .4 79. .5 13.9 57.9 1. .1 0.1 67.1 1.6 58.1 60.1 98.0 3.9 59. .1 13.5 59. India Indonesia Iran.9 35.9 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Morocco Nigeria South Africa Tunisia CENTRAL AMERICA Cuba Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 93 3 .6 122.2 1.9 1.8 0.8 4.2 217.8 79.3 57.7 5.4 1.7 0.1 156.6 100.4 0.3 3.7 2. 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.0 103.8 42.7 26.4. .0 2.5 1.1 10.9 3.6 0.8 4. .9 20.9 2.9 147.1 10.3 8.3 5.2 9. .6 112.3 121.0 6. . .0 3.2 59. . . .9 0.6 6.2 48.5 47. . .4 79.2 215.6 23.2 3.5 1. .7 670.0 52.0 4. Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Kazakhstan Korea.6 16.4 8.0 96.4 2.2 47.7 96.3.1 103.2 0.5 0.2 82.0 11.1 0.4 2.0 27.0 164.4 2.8 7.7 47.5 12.4 0.2 0.6 0.2 7.7 37.0 5.7 4.1 19.9 166.3 109.6 9.8 45.9 69.6 56.5 0.3 48. .3 3.8 0.1 79.1 23.6 0.9 686.3 2.7 2. .1 211.8 0.6 4.

1 0. .1 3.3 5. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 301.7 357.2 2.9 11.9 12.3 8. .8 3.0 1. .9 32.3 8.2 1 143. .7 5.4 3. . . .4 38. 2013/14 f’cast (.3 8. million tonnes .8 17.0 530.3 0.5 3.3 12.3 4. .2 0.1 25.8 12.7 4.8 1 259. D.3 6.2 133.2 129.7 4.0 7.3 4.4 3.8 31.9 0.1 1. .4 3.6 74.5 2.2 2.9 8. .4 3.8 30.5.1 3.5 1.0 0.7 5. .1 142.5 64.4 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.8 5. .5 7.0 16.1 55.3 0.1 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Morocco Nigeria South Africa Sudan Tanzania.0 0.5 0.5 4.0 4. United Rep.1 42.4 286.4 57.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 74.8 2.1 0.5 0.2 12.2 0. .5 1.8 11.9 1.5 8.8 4.8 22.6 0.0 75.9 7.1 0.2 3.4 26.7 31. .0 97.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 1. .*.4 22.0 6.1 38.6 13.4 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.5 1. .9 0. .9 1.1 15.3 4.2 2.5 2.1 12. .3 4.6 33.2 2.4 5.1 38.9 6.1 39. . .2 4.1 0.3 80.9 18.Food Outlo Outlook o o k .0 0.0 34.9 4.2 0.3 22.3 9.R.1 1. .1 0.3 1 160.8 12.7 2. .9 8.5 123. . .4 17. .1 30.6 7.2 2. .2 120.0 87.8 4.3 30. .4 10. .0 0.0 1. . .0 339. .3 15.8 4.8 1.8 84.5 12.7 87.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 3(A): COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS . .3 3.4 0.6 12.8 0.0 4.4 5.1 0.1. . Islamic Republic of Japan Korea.0 0.5 1.3 130.3 0.4 11.0 129.8 11. .3 14.5 23.6 4.2 19. .1 3.6 0.6 97.8 3.5 0.) ASIA China of which Taiwan Prov.2 0.5 0.4.1 10.1 50.8 19.8 41.9 2.2 0.8 6.2 1.0 65.2 26.1 0.3 6. .2 6. .3 27.5 28.0 28. .1 5.2 0.9 0.4 4.0 12.5 217.5 310.4 0.4 5. . . .6 2.3 5.1 236.6 0.0 23.4 11.6 1.0 0.3 0. .6 117. .3 8.4 2.8 1.1 0.7 24. .6 337.8 1.5 14.2 0. .2 2.5 14.2 10. .9 133.7 3. . . .3 0.4 17.0 16.0 121. .6 224.1 4. .1 21.1 5.2 0. .1 1. India Indonesia Iran.1 0.1 188.9 35.3 6.8 6.7 0.2 612.3 650.1 49. .7 0.0 5.2 0.6 561.4 0.5 3.8 1.9 1.2.5 63.0 1. .1 7.7 1.9 34.7 599.5 6.4 67.3 220. .8 124.1 1.0 5.3 24.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 6.0 58.7 34.0 357.0 0.8 3. .9 35.3 2.1 0. .1 73.2 0.6 5.8 4.5 0.4 1. .9 4. .1 28.> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim. Korea.0 18.8 4. .1 0.0 5. .5 4.2 149.5 383.2 5.8 175. .4 0.8 1. .1 152.9 17.0 6.1 7.2 17.8 77. .5 5.1 0. .7 4.0 0.1 9.6 0.8 3.9 1.2 3.8 334.7 1.6 7.9 3. .4 9.2 2.5 0.4 3.2 13.5 1.3 29.5 3.0 2.4 16.8 10.7 1. Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.9 222.2 0. .3 609. .1 2.8 22.3.4 27.5 5.1 53.6 18.1 3.1 4.2 186.8 18.2 0. of CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 9 94 .5 12.3 6. . .4 6.1 0.8 2.9 0. . .9 34.6 1.4 0.1. .2 0.P.1 9. .3 17.4 0.1 181.8 0.6 122. .0 0.8 8.1 26.3 3.8 0. . .5 29.9 0.9 1.5 2.4 4.1 13.5 29.5 68.7 9.8 12. 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 5.

.9 98.1 2.4 9. .4 58. .2 28.0 79.6 1.3 5.3 36. . .5 40. .7 48.3 21.9 19.7 216.9 641.8 179.3 24.1 13.6 3.6 1.2 132.7 4.3 19.9 5. . .6 2.3 3.4 85.3 4.4 3.9 18.8 99.2 143.6 29.7 16.2.4 24.3 1.9 24.3 5.5 6.3 1.3 7.3 20.4 152.7 0.8 12.0 18.3 66.9 16.9 152.7 27.4 40.7 19. .7 2.7 59.3 8. .3 86.4 85. .0 52.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Morocco Nigeria South Africa Sudan Tanzania.4.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 22.6 1. India Indonesia Iran. 2013/14 f’cast (. .9 46.9 95. .4 18.1.9 4.8 0.1 3.6 616.9 0. D.3 1.2 7.6 8.0 17.0 3.9 0.8 19.2 572.8 1.4 5.2 134.6 9.0 50.3 29.2 20.1 10.5 14.7 18.5 19.1 1.3 12.7 16.4 2.7 575.9 21.5 3.9 0.5 194.0 5.5 1.5 1. .0 99.7 11.8 0.0 1.9 30.3 11. .1 53.2 29.3 93.9 22. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 358.3 6.0 2.3 173.1 1. .2 7.6 387.1 32.6 83.6 53.1 39.1 8.2 16. Per caput food use 2014 f’cast 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. .6 38. Kg/year .3 7.7 16.0 577.2 20.P.4 23.1 0.5 19.3 8.2 0.4 144.9 127.2 41.2 16.1 29.> Total Utilization 09/10-11/12 2012/13 average estim.3 14.0 19.7 3.3 5.0 21.9 15.8 0.6 8.3 4.4 17.0 2.3 6.3 23.0 3.9 13.2 190.8 0.4 3.7 0.6 22.1 5. .1 16.9 79.9 20.3 98.9 87.6 1.9 4.4 1.1 2.7 4. Islamic Republic of Japan Korea.2 85.9 179. .2 2.4 0.5 1.8 20.6 2.2 7.5 15.8 0.1.4 4.5 1.4 23.9 0. . .5.3 1.5 5.1 2.5 2.4 54.7 46.9 189.2 85.6 17.5 27.1 5.6 0.0 15.2 5.1 12.4 3.2 1.0 6. .7 12.2 3.7 41.5 25.2 19. .3 314. United Rep.9 141.9 2.4 2.2 211.3 8. .7 4.8 23.8 39. .8 25.0 48.4 212.1 0.0 6.2 6.4 1.5 51.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 29.7 90.4 3.1 10.3 77.9 3.9 0.6 3. .6 4. .6 19.1 294.2 7.0 3.9 91. .8 11.3 1. .1 29.1 22.) (.2 0.5 213.3 4.8 45.7 14.8 15.4 11.8 0.1 21.6 7.2 24.2 4.6 2.9 4.1 4.5 10. .*. .6 0.8 4.3 4.4 19.5 3. .5 10.6 1.6 0. .6 22.9 89.1 52.5 29.8 3.6 52.4 52. .1 5.6 7.4 1. .) 15.5 5.7 1 216.9 0.5 1. .0 22.6 8. .0 19.2 4.7 2. . . .4 87. .0 299.4 1.2 17.8 36.8 1 150.4 3.0 0.5 7.2 4. .7 0.5 1 168.6 5.2 1.7 3.1 30.1 5.2 10.7 275.9 73.APPENDIX TABLE 3(B): COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS .2 4.0 64.5 28.6 140.2 2.2 25.8 1.2 0.6 4.7 10.6 2.2 19.9 0.7 295.9 46. .3 10.5 0.0 16.1 3.0 119.4 45.4 0.4 85.6 23.7 9.4 29.4 28.2 2. Statistical appendix a p p endix Stocks ending in 2010-2012 average 2013 estim.1 0.1 9.4 24.9 1.9 2.6 0. . .4 1.5 6.5 4.7 404.7 551. .7 9.4 48.1 5.2 88.1 14.1 3.5 10.3 ASIA China of which Taiwan Prov.3 0.8 38.5 2.5 72. .7 10.3 141. .0 3.2 4.7 126.8 319.7 15. .1 31.4 5.7 213.5 24.1 49. . .6 4.9 51. .9 94.9 4.2 90. .5 1. .0 4.1 27.0 2.8 7.2 5.6 56.3 76.9 89.6 22.8 0.5 7. Korea.8 140. .2 50.5 17.0 40. .0 22.6 9.2 1.4 2.7 86.0 42.3 18. .9 19.4 94.3 39.2 22.6 0. .4 0.1 85.2 77. .0 40.9 4.7 69. million tonnes .2 50.2 7.9 0.3 14.7 69.8 0.6 3.4 17.1 19.3.8 19.0 4. .4 3. of CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 95 5 .3 77.8 2.5 4.0 21.R. .0 10.8 27.0 28.3 2.9 0.7 153.6 6.6 8.8 0.6 0.1 7.2 3.5 231.3 13.7 4.7 86.8 45.9 11.0 2.

8 68. .9 26.9 1. .8 7.5 2.6 4.8 4.6 55.7 0.R.9 11.5 0.1 14.6 962. Korea. .8 4.8 2.2 13.7 1.0 353.4 15.0 3. .0 8. .2 3.5 2.7 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Morocco Nigeria South Africa Tanzania.4 3.6 6.7 11.5 15.8 474.5 3.0 110. United Rep.6 0. .9 26. . .2 3. .8 106.0 0.5 15.5 62.3 1.7 0.6 65.3 33.5 2. .7 7.7 2. . .3 0. .8 42. .0 4.5 6.9 13.4 60.6 1. .2 4.4 1.0 0.2 14.0 14. .7 68. .6 3.8 1.0 21. . . . . .3 1.6 1. of CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine OCEANIA WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 9 96 .1 3.8 20.2 8.3 36.0 1.3 6. .8 8.1 0.6 0.3.2 14.1 0. .8 25.2 3.0 0. . .0 396.9 5.1 99.8 0.9 92.7 15.0 0.8 0.9 4. .4 1.6 4.0 1.8 22.0 52. .Food Outlo Outlook o o k .1 103. .1 0. .4 6. .4 4.5 7.5 3.7 38.3 1. .1 0.0 51.3 0. .6 0.3 8. .2 0.8 1.2 0.8 3.1 0.1 0. .0 0.3 7.*.1 273. .0 19.4 0.1 5.7 0.5 1. .6 0.2 9.2 4.6 872.9 415.6 66.4 1. .5 67. .8 94.3 2.8 106.3 12.3 8.2 331.1 8.2 12.0 2.2 0. .3 1.8 4.7 9.6 3.6 0.2 21.5 0.7 6.5 8.8 214.3 1.5 853.7 14.4 0.6 114. .2 0.2 2.9 0.5 0.7 5.7 0.1 0.3 208.0 7.9 0.9 0.0 0.7 1.3 1. .) ASIA China of which Taiwan Prov.6 0. .0 20.0 20. .5 9.0 0.1 30.0 76.3 4.5 6.6 292.1 0.8 6.3 0. .7 3.9 31.1 0.3 3.7 4. 2013/14 f’cast (. . . .5 0.5 1.7 2.5.3 1.8 340.1 12.0 320.6 1.7 2.3 0. .8 6.7 19.9 1.4 116.4 5. .5 0. .6 4.2 0.0 105.5 7. . .7 12.3 0. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 253.9 18. .3 4.1 17.0 178.8 3.0 1.8 47.5 0. .8 3.0 8.3 0.> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim.3 19.0 1.5 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.1 9.9 54. .3 0.1 0. Islamic Republic of Japan Korea.7 48.3 1.0 8.8 24. .7 0.3 12.1 3.4 0.0 0.2 21.5 47.4 5.1 0.P.7 1.1 93.1 1. . .6 1.3 2.1 3.6 0. .1 22.5 0.5 56. . .1 9.2 2.5 6.1 0. 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.5 2.1 99.5 64.2 21.1 0.0 0.7 1. .3 3. .0 3.0 13.8 26.7 3. D.5 39.0 2.1 3.0 0.7 77.0 0.2 96.0 4.5 0.6 30.4 22.0 0.3 8.5 56. .3 0. .1.2 4.5 1.7 0. .9 4.1 43.7 476.1 1. million tonnes . .5 1.1 48. Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.0 286.8 1.5 23.0 0.1 5.2 9.0 19. .4 86.2 5.2 3.1 103.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 4(A): MAIZE STATISTICS .2 12.8 488.5 6.0 27.6 8.0 11.4 4. .6 11.2 71.7 12.4 1.3 0.3 21.7 7.4.1 438.8 5.5 1.2 5.8 19. . . .7 50.2 2.2.1 0.1.4 2.0 289.5 18. .0 0.5 7.4 25.4 0. .5 25.5 0.8 1. .4 15. India Indonesia Iran.8 13.7 3.7 0. .

3 0.3 23.5 62.7 12.3 505.6 0.5 5.6 30. .1 5.7 18.4 18.8 8.3 2.5 2.4 51.2 3.1 1.9 8.7 43.5 0.4 18.5 1.0 5.5 0.1 53.2 78.4 30.3 12.2 110.) 9.9 7.5 284.5 17.8 12.5 2.0 38.3 4.3 3.2 29.7 0.5 4.8 14.5 10.4 1. .7 1.1 140.7 3.8 117.7 0.4 18. Korea.2 13.*.4 1.2 2.9 15. Kg/year .9 6. D.2 3.5 7.8 1.0 15.4 33.0 46.2 3.4 25.7 4.5 37.4 13.2 13.2 1.3 65.8 409.0 6.4 0.4 2.1 0.2 0. . .6 0.9 12.6 98.2 8.9 18. 2013/14 f’cast (.3 297.7 14.4 4. .6 118.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 40.4 21.3 3.8 182.8 73. . United Rep.1 262.2 3.9 85.4 17.3 9.2 16.5 0.1 5. .0 3.2 20.5 2.2 40.8 21. .6 2. . .4 3.9 19.7 0.1 18.6 0.0 26.9 51.0 447.0 16.7 14.1 8.6 0.8 0. .1 78.4 7.0 3.5 72.0 2.5 32.6 2.6 31.5 15.6 12. Per caput food use 2014 f’cast 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. . . .0 3.3 4.6 417.3 20.2 1.9 0.7 7.0 2.3 1.8 7.4 0. .7 1.8 7.1 1.4 1.P.5 857.2 48.8 76. . .6 5.9 10. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 294.2 60.2 9.2 1.4 12.5 0.0 2.4 3. . .3 15.0 26.5 1.2 3.3 39.1 5.8 10. . . .5 0.4 7.2 3.5 5.4 34.0 20.0 4.7 100. .7 11.5 48.7 80.2 9.2 10. of CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine OCEANIA WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 97 7 .0 0.7 0.2 274. .5 7.9 3. .0 6. .6 82.4 0. .5 879.0 27.9 2.4.0 16.8 1.8 83. .2 2.2 0.1 23.4 38.5 42.1 173.0 5.9 29.2 80.0 2.6 3. Islamic Republic of Japan Korea.9 0. .1 134.1 19.5 2.4 4.3 1.9 16.3 3.5 0.9 49.8 17.9 293.7 0.3 2. .0 0.6 7.8 5.4 482.4 39.5 4.9 97.1 13.1 1.5 0. .3 4.1 1.2 16.9 82.4 14. Statistical appendix a p p endix Stocks ending in 2010-2012 average 2013 estim.2 12.6 5.8 1.1.3 65.7 3.8 40.6 396. .0 0. .8 3.9 0.8 2. .6 25.3 48. .1 4.4 0.9 2.1 0.0 3.9 5.9 18.9 10.3 83.5 0.8 7.6 1.3 1.4 68.5 7.4 2.9 205. .7 1. .) (.6 16.7 1. .2 3.8 109.1 0.5 17.1 132.7 0.4 0. .9 8. .1.3 40.9 339.3 91.8 281. .4 9.5 11.6 16.9 29.R.0 8.9 0.1 3.4 6.1 47.3 0.1 1.7 50.6 30.2 12.3 0.1 26.2 12.4 7.3 7. .7 8.3 0.5 6.8 6.1 25.3.4 2. .7 140.2. .2 7.8 6.9 1.0 23.6 10. .7 29.5 0.2 3.2 9.2 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Morocco Nigeria South Africa Tanzania.0 1.8 76. million tonnes .6 92.0 45.5 0.7 30. .1 6.1 1.5 4.9 1.9 16.2 18.9 90.9 38.9 27.3 5.2 2.0 26. .5 6.4 6.3 2.6 7.4 7.7 0. .4 8.4 8.3 16.4 4.1 0.6 6.9 4.9 64.5 923.5 11.9 4.5 17.9 48.2 9.1 77.6 42.2 14.1 97. .9 66.9 14.5 0. .4 80. .9 14.5.6 7.6 3.3 322.6 39.3 69.5 8.0 0.5 91.8 18.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 49.6 19.4 11.2 15.4 0.6 91.6 0.7 16. . .7 8. .7 0.7 1.0 12.8 0. .2 0.5 69.4 3.4 0.0 5.6 4.6 140.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 21. India Indonesia Iran.1 64.7 ASIA China of which Taiwan Prov.9 33.APPENDIX TABLE 4(B): MAIZE STATISTICS .1 5. .1 3.6 1.2 3. .7 0.5 2.9 63.8 1.6 5. .3 6.3 2.0 0.5 1.1 1. .9 5.8 10.5 220.4 7.4 1.5 0. .3 9. .6 6.> Total Utilization 09/10-11/12 2012/13 average estim.2 5.1 0.8 1.

5 19. . .2 0. . .0 1. . . .0 3.0 15.4 0. . . .6 14.) ASIA China India Iran.Food Outlo Outlook o o k . .9 2.3 1.8 7.1 0.4 0. . .0 1.8 12.9 0.7 1.4 8.3 2.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 6.2 - 15. .4 0.9 2. .8 0.1 1.9 15.8 0.7 3.3 17.0 4.5 0.3 20.8 7.2 2.2 3.8 8.4 19. . .4 7.4 0. .6 - 0.0 54.6 2.9 108.3 0.5 0.9 0. .5 2.1 109.7 1.5 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 3.0 2. . .3 0. . Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.6 0.3 14.1 0. 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. .6 0.6 3.3 0. .1 0.2 7.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 15. million tonnes .8 2.1 0.5 1.5 3.9 1. . .4 2.6 0.8 19.6 0. . .3 8. .1 1.4 0.0 13.4 0.8 15. .3 4.5.5 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 6.1 1. .5 1.2 0.2 3. .June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 5(A): BARLEY STATISTICS .2 1.3 0. .3 0. .4 0.5 1.8 0. .2 0.2 0.1 29.1 0. .9 138.4 0. .2 1.9 0.7 1. .5 7.6 0. .3 - 0.1 4.7 0.2. .4 0.8 28.1 3. .7 7.0 1.8 8.5 17. Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey 19.6 0.0 7. 2013/14 f’cast (.2 0.5 4.1 85. .4 7. .1 131.0 3. .8 1.6 15. . .2 2. . . .0 1.1 12.2 - 0.0 19. .4 0.2 - 14.0 7. . .6 7.5 0.5 0.9 56.1 102.2 5.3 15. .3 7.1 2. .8 0. .5 0. .6 2.8 79.3 2. . .8 1.0 4.3 19.6 29. .6 1.9 0. . .5 0.3.7 5. .8 82.1 137.8 0.3 0. . . .2 9.1 1. .6 0.3 2. .5 4.2 0.*.7 2.5 4.2 9.1.1.0 1. .7 - AFRICA Algeria Ethiopia Libya Morocco Tunisia CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE Belarus European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 9 98 . .4 3. .0 0.6 3.6 0.1 4.1 1.0 55.7 16.0 4. .0 4.7 8.4 7.5 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 8.8 0.2 0.1 0.8 3.2 2.1 2. .8 5. .1 1.1 9.8 1.7 1. .5 0.0 4.3 0.6 2.6 5.0 7.> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim.1 9.9 2. .0 5.9 0. .4 14.3 0.4.8 0.6 2.0 0.4 0.6 3.2 0. .3 1.6 0.4 1.0 2.8 1.0 1.1 4.

4 0.8 0.5 3.0 2. .4 8.1 3.APPENDIX TABLE 5(B): BARLEY STATISTICS . .4.5 0.4 1. .3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 12.8 1.1 3.2 2.4 2.5 16.5 13.8 72.6 3.9 1.6 1.7 0.5 6.0 1.2 0.8 3. .9 0.7 1.9 2.8 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.7 1.8 4.3 34.0 2.4 140.2 0.1 0.0 0. Statistical appendix a p p endix Stocks ending in 2010-2012 average 2013 estim.2 0.8 1.2 1.7 0. .5 1.1 0.7 0. .6 0.7 2. .6 1.2 1. .8 1.4 3.3. .6 0.2 1.8 2.2 1.7 5. .5 0. .9 0.3 2.3 7.7 12.0 42.4 40.3 12.5 0.5 7. .6 135. .9 1. .3 0.1 29.2 8.5 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.4 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 11. . .9 1.2 0.1.6 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 11.1.2 1.9 55.8 0.2 1.1 0.6 99.8 11.5 2.2 0.8 5. .4 1.0 0.7 7. .2 0.1 0.6 5.7 1. .5 0. .2 8.6 3.1 2.) 0.9 50.7 8.4 0.3 18.2 1.2 1.5.1 0.8 0.7 2.5 2.5 0.6 3.1 8.5 0. .4 1. .7 0.3 1. .2 8. .6 1.8 0. .1 7.8 0. . . .9 1.0 1.1 0.7 2.6 1.3 1.6 3.8 1.4 0.3 1. .0 2.8 41.2 1. .2 6.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 1.9 2.6 42.2 1.5 0.7 3. .4 0.7 3.*.5 1.2 0.> Total Utilization 09/10-11/12 2012/13 average estim.1 1.1 1.9 4.6 14.6 16. .0 8.7 0.2 0.2 7.9 14.8 0.6 1. .2 4.4 3. .6 1. .0 12. .2 0.4 79.4 92.2 1.9 1. .4 33.3 1.3 12.1 1.1 4.2 0.9 ASIA China India Iran. .1 1.1 0.3 6.4 1. . .1 1.1 0.3 1.5 0.0 1.7 22.9 1.3 0.1 1.0 24.3 3.3 21.2 7.4 133.1 1. Per caput food use 2014 f’cast 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. .3 1. . Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey 33.0 6.8 0.2 11. .2 11. .5 0.4 7.3 6.9 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.8 94. .1 1.7 5.2 0.6 0.2 18.5 5.2 0.8 5.4 1.4 8.9 0.9 0.6 1.6 0.4 13.2 1.4 0.2 2. . .1 1. .2.6 0.0 12. .7 0.7 4.9 1.3 1.9 0.9 0. .) (.3 6.9 17.9 14.3 1.1 0.9 51.9 3.8 0.1 0.2 1.6 8.5 0.3 1. . .6 0.5 0. .2 1. . million tonnes .2 2.1 0. .5 15.7 1.5 7.2 0.1 40.8 8.7 1. .6 9.2 1.2 1.2 5.6 40.0 74. .9 1. Kg/year .9 12.5 1.0 3.3 0. . 2013/14 f’cast (.9 2.5 0.2 12.7 15.6 4.7 0. .2 AFRICA Algeria Ethiopia Libya Morocco Tunisia CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE Belarus European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 99 9 . . .

0 0. .3 0.8 4.9 4.) ASIA China India Japan 9.0 0. . .1 0.9 0. .7 3. .8 0. . .3 0.8 8.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 16. million tonnes .7 6. .0 4. . . . .2 2. . .0 3. .6 7.6 0. .5.7 0.0 6.7 15.6 2.6 95.1 6.5 0. .5 0.3 46.0 2.4 9.0 2. .1 0.0 2. .5 0. . million tonnes . .2 9.4 2.7 0.2 0. .1 0.3.5 1 100 .8 2.3 0. .1 2.5 2. . .3 2. .8 0.2. .5 0.6 1.8 1. .3 2.2 0. . .7 0.9 0.> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim.0 7.4 2. . . .0 1. .1.6 0.4 0. .5.4 0.6 3. .6 0.3 6.2 1. .3 0. .2 0. .0 7. OATS AND OTHER GRAINS . 2013/14 f’cast (. .1 1.1 1.6 34.4 4.2 0.0 59. . . 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. . RYE. .1 1.7 64.9 3.1 2.1 1.1.2 48.2.1 1.1 2.2 1.6 2.7 2.1 3.1 46.1 0.8 0. .6 0.5 33. . .2 0.0 0.3 3.5 6. .1 6.6 0. . .0 0. .4.0 3.2 3.3 0. .2 11. .7 0.6 0. .0 1.0 4.7 1.7 1. .1 51.7 3. .2 2. .5 0.0 0.2 1.1 0. .8 94. . .0 0. . .1 1.2 0.3 4. .2 1. .6 25. .0 0. .4 17. .1 1. .2 61.1 0.5 0.8 4.> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim. . . .7 0.0 7.9 0.2 0.2 0. .1 7.1 0.5 0.6 0. .3. Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. . . . . .0 27.9 4. . .9 0.6 4.1 0.7 0. . .0 4.6 1. . .6 0. .5 0.1 1. . .1 7.1 0.1 6. . .9 0.7 AFRICA Burkina Faso Ethiopia Nigeria Sudan CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Venezuela NORTH AMERICA United States of America EUROPE European Union OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs APPENDIX TABLE 7(A): OTHER COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS: MILLET. . .2 19. .5 5.4 1. .1 0.4 7.0 32.0 6. .7 45.5 7. .8 0.1 17.8 20. .7 1.6 2.1 2. .1. . .5 6. .4 1.7 19.8 0.1 1.6 5.1 1. .June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 6(A): SORGHUM STATISTICS . .2 0.4.0 2.1 3. .0 0.9 1.8 0. .1 0. .8 3.0 1.7 4.*.8 92.0 0.2 3. Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.1 0. . .5 10. .4 0.8 2. .0 2. .8 21.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.9 0. . .3 2.5 8. .5 2.2 0. .1 3.5 5. .6 0. . .4 7. .8 3. . . .1 0.0 27.7 0.2 3.1 3. .8 13. .7 0.3 50.9 0.1 2. . 2013/14 f’cast (. .9 0.7 0.1 3. . .1 0.7 0.6 0. . .1.*.6 0.8 10.6 0. .3 0. .6 1. .Food Outlo Outlook o o k . . .1 0. 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim. . .) ASIA AFRICA CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA EUROPE OCEANIA WORLD 18.1 0. . . .9 0.0 8. .2 1. . . . . . .6 0.9 0. . .8 8.6 9.0 7. . .1 2. .8 8.4 0. . .1 0.9 6. .

.1 0.6 1.3 9. . .5 0.3 9. .6 0.8 18.5 27.1 76.1 1.5 11. .5 5.3 0.8 3.6 0.6 12.2 1.2 6.1 0.7 0. .2 8.3 5.0 0. .3 0. . .5 0.0 5.> Total Utilization 09/10-11/12 2012/13 average estim.4 0.8 2.5 0.4 0.9 0. .3 5. . .7 9. .4 0.1 1. . . .8 0.7 0.1. .0 1.7 14.9 45. .3 0.1 0. .3 2.3 0.9 1.6 0.6 12.3 1. .0 5.5 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.2 14. .4 1.8 4. .4 42.9 19.0 0.7 5.7 1.1 2.0 1. .1 2.0 0. .7 0. . .1 0. .5 27.4 33.9 0. .0 0. .1 0.0 ASIA AFRICA CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA EUROPE OCEANIA WORLD 18.6 1.8 0.9 1.8 79. .1 0. Per caput food use 2014 f’cast 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.8 3.*. . .5 5.4 1.3 1.4 0. .0 0.8 14. 2013/14 f’cast (.0 33.4 1.5 3. .7 2.5 0.6 1.) 3.5 1.3 53.1 0.6 0.5 4.1 1.1 0.4 9.8 4.8 1.4 14.1 1. million tonnes .2 1. . .2 0.3 10. .1 0. .8 43. . million tonnes .6 3. .5.1 0. .7 1.0 0. . .8 33.3 0.3 20.3 2. .9 0.9 1. . .1 20. .2 4.7 1. . .2 0. .0 4. .0 6.4 AFRICA Burkina Faso Ethiopia Nigeria Sudan CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Venezuela NORTH AMERICA United States of America EUROPE European Union OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs APPENDIX TABLE 7(B): OTHER COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS: MILLET.7 1.9 2. .3 0.*.2 ASIA China India Japan 11. . .6 8.8 79.4 33. .5 45.7 8.7 46. .0 5.2 0.5 0. . . . Kg/year .2 0.1 50. . . . .0 0. . .7 10. . .7 3.4 0. .4 0.2 0.9 0. . . .0 1.2 0. .1 0.2 1. .> Total Utilization 09/10-11/12 2012/13 average estim.5 0.) 1.3 10. .2 0.1.3 33.7 0.1 0.2 64.) (.2 6. . .APPENDIX TABLE 6(B): SORGHUM STATISTICS .8 2.3 6.4 2.1 0.3 1.5 0.8 3.5 0.4 0. . .5 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.5 6. .0 2.3 9.1 74.9 3.5 4.3 4.2 2. .3 1.5 1.5 60. .1 0.0 15.2 15.1 0.2 6.8 1.1. .3 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.7 93. .0 0.0 4.5 0.6 92.4 61.1.2 4.3. .3.5 26. .6 6.0 4.3 0.8 52.6 1.2 0.5 12.4 0.1 2.4 4.6 4.1 0.0 81.6 94.3 9.2 1. . Statistical appendix a p p endix Stocks ending in 2010-2012 average 2013 estim.) (.2 11.1 75. RYE.1 6.9 14. . 2013/14 f’cast (. .8 4. . . . . .2 31. .2 1.6 1.5 0.2 4.6 8.2 5.9 2.4 19.7 2.1 0. . . . . Stocks ending in 2010-2012 average 2013 estim. . . .4 0.6 4. Kg/year .5. . .4 0.8 20.2 4.4 4.6 0. .4 10.9 0.3 0.2 5.1 0. .0 1.2 19.3 10. . .3 2. .0 3.2 8.2 0. . OATS AND OTHER GRAINS .2 1. . . .1 0.2 0.5 16.8 6.0 5.9 2.5 41. . .1 0.9 10.2 2.4.2.3 1.4 0. .3 1.2 6.2 101 01 . .2.8 0.2 19. .9 1. . Per caput food use 2014 f’cast 2013/14 f’cast 09/10-11/12 average 2012/13 estim.6 4.4. .3 9.1 1.4 0.7 3.9 17. .8 0. . .

Food Outlo Outlook o o k - June 2013

APPENDIX TABLE 8(A): RICE STATISTICS
,1,2,3,4,5,*,1,> Production 09/10-11/12 2012/13 average
estim.

Imports 2013/14
f’cast

Exports 2013
f’cast

2009-2011 average

2012
estim.

2009-2011 average

2012
estim.

2013
f’cast

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes, milled equivalent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)

ASIA
Bangladesh China of which Taiwan Prov. India Indonesia Iran, Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Korea, D.P.R. Korea, Republic of Malaysia Myanmar Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam

425.5 33.1 136.3 1.1 96.8 41.3 1.4 0.1 7.7 1.6 4.5 1.6 20.3 6.0 10.7 2.7 22.8 27.0 16.2 0.4 3.6 3.0 2.5 0.4 1.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 16.8 1.0 8.5 1.9 1.0 6.9 6.9 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 470.2 452.2 17.9 213.6 73.7

444.5 33.7 141.1 1.2 104.2 43.5 1.5 0.1 7.7 1.8 4.0 1.7 19.8 5.4 11.8 2.6 23.8 29.1 17.5 0.4 4.5 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 16.4 1.1 7.8 2.0 1.0 6.3 6.3 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 489.9 471.9 18.0 227.1 74.8

453.0 34.1 142.8 1.2 106.0 45.4 1.5 0.1 7.7 1.7 4.2 1.8 20.5 6.2 12.4 2.8 24.2 29.0 18.1 0.4 4.7 2.9 2.6 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 16.6 1.0 8.0 1.9 1.0 6.0 6.0 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 499.1 481.5 17.7 232.7 76.4

15.7 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 10.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 2.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 2.0 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 32.4 27.7 4.7 15.8 6.5

18.2 0.1 3.0 0.2 0.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.6 13.5 1.3 0.4 0.3 3.0 1.2 1.3 0.2 2.1 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 38.6 33.4 5.1 18.0 7.0

17.7 0.1 3.0 0.3 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.6 12.9 1.3 0.3 0.3 2.7 0.9 1.2 0.2 2.1 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 37.6 32.4 5.2 16.8 6.8

25.1 0.7 0.1 3.1 0.2 0.8 3.2 9.4 6.7 0.5 0.4 2.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 3.4 3.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 32.4 28.3 4.1 4.7 2.0

30.3 0.3 0.1 10.3 0.2 0.6 2.8 7.0 7.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 3.3 3.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 38.6 34.1 4.6 12.1 1.9

29.5 0.3 8.6 0.2 0.7 2.9 0.1 7.0 8.2 0.6 0.5 3.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 3.4 3.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 37.6 33.0 4.6 10.6 2.2

AFRICA
Cote d’Ívoire Egypt Madagascar Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania, United Rep. of

CENTRAL AMERICA
Cuba Mexico

SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina Brazil Peru Uruguay

NORTH AMERICA
Canada United States of America

EUROPE
European Union Russian Federation

OCEANIA
Australia

WORLD
Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs

1 102

APPENDIX TABLE 8(B): RICE STATISTICS
,1,2,3,4,5,*,1,> Total Utilization 08/09-10/11 2011/12 average
estim.

Statistical appendix a p p endix

Stocks ending in 2009-2011 average 2012
estim.

Per caput food use 2013
f’cast

2012/13
f’cast

08/09-10/11 average

2011/12
estim.

2012/13
f’cast

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes, milled equivalent . . . . . . . . . . . . .)

(. . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . .) 81.2 150.0 76.9 53.3 71.8 157.3 31.6 41.1 58.6 60.1 72.6 83.9 229.4 14.8 120.1 40.8 113.0 128.0 188.5 22.2 64.0 41.4 126.9 24.6 79.6 16.5 18.3 18.5 66.7 6.8 35.6 9.2 39.9 62.3 7.4 11.1 10.1 11.2 4.7 5.1 4.6 14.8 9.7 56.0 67.0 12.1 69.1 65.1 81.4 152.9 76.6 57.7 71.4 161.2 32.1 45.0 57.8 72.2 69.8 85.3 230.9 13.8 124.5 45.0 116.9 130.3 188.7 23.8 74.0 40.3 126.1 28.9 83.5 16.9 19.1 18.5 65.9 6.6 36.9 8.8 42.7 63.5 7.6 9.5 10.1 9.5 4.8 5.3 4.3 16.4 11.3 56.4 67.4 11.7 70.2 65.9 81.9 153.0 76.5 57.8 72.4 165.1 32.4 45.9 57.6 74.0 68.5 86.0 231.1 12.8 124.6 46.6 117.0 132.5 188.8 24.6 74.7 42.6 127.0 29.0 86.5 22.2 19.0 18.5 66.0 6.7 34.3 8.7 37.1 64.5 7.6 10.6 10.1 10.6 5.1 5.5 4.5 16.2 11.2 56.8 67.6 12.3 70.9 65.7

ASIA
Bangladesh China of which Taiwan Prov. India Indonesia Iran, Islamic Republic of Iraq Japan Korea, D.P.R. Korea, Republic of Malaysia Myanmar Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam

397.7 32.3 128.8 1.3 90.8 39.8 2.6 1.3 8.2 1.6 4.7 2.6 19.7 3.1 12.3 1.1 2.6 11.8 20.5 25.6 1.4 3.9 3.0 4.4 1.1 0.9 1.0 3.8 0.8 0.8 15.1 0.4 8.1 2.0 0.1 4.5 0.3 4.1 3.7 2.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 451.0 432.7 18.3 215.9 75.6

412.5 33.9 132.4 1.4 92.8 43.4 2.7 1.5 8.1 2.0 4.6 2.7 19.6 3.1 13.3 1.3 2.8 12.3 21.1 28.7 1.7 3.9 3.1 5.5 1.2 0.9 1.1 3.9 0.8 0.7 16.1 0.4 9.0 2.1 0.1 3.7 0.3 3.4 3.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 469.5 451.7 17.8 228.7 79.2

420.4 34.1 134.0 1.4 96.0 45.1 2.8 1.5 8.2 2.0 4.5 2.8 19.7 2.9 13.2 1.4 2.7 12.9 21.4 30.1 1.7 4.2 3.3 5.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 4.0 0.8 0.8 14.9 0.4 7.6 2.1 0.1 4.2 0.4 3.9 4.0 3.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 478.4 459.5 18.9 235.0 80.3

130.3 5.8 70.0 0.2 22.4 4.4 0.3 0.1 2.5 1.4 0.3 6.0 0.8 3.0 0.2 0.3 6.5 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.8 0.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.5 138.2 133.8 4.4 41.0 15.4

154.3 7.0 84.7 0.1 23.8 6.2 0.5 0.1 2.6 0.1 1.6 0.2 5.8 0.6 1.9 0.2 0.3 12.6 2.9 3.3 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 161.7 157.1 4.6 45.2 17.1

167.0 6.7 94.4 0.1 23.5 6.4 0.5 0.1 2.7 0.1 1.7 0.3 5.3 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.2 17.0 3.1 3.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 173.7 169.2 4.5 43.9 16.2

AFRICA
Cote d’Ívoire Egypt Madagascar Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania, United Rep. of

CENTRAL AMERICA
Cuba Mexico

SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina Brazil Peru Uruguay

NORTH AMERICA
Canada United States of America

EUROPE
European Union Russian Federation

OCEANIA
Australia

WORLD
Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs

103 03

Food Outlo Outlook o o k - June 2013

APPENDIX TABLE 9: CEREAL SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION IN MAIN EXPORTING COUNTRIES (million tonnes)
,1,2,3,4,12,20,28,36,44,* ,1,> Wheat1 2011/12 2012/13
estim.

Coarse Grains2 2013/14
f’cast

Rice (milled basis) 2013/14
f’cast

2011/12

2012/13
estim.

2011/12

2012/13
estim.

2013/14
f’cast

UNITED STATES (June/May)
Opening stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Closing stocks Opening stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Closing stocks Opening stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Closing stocks Opening stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Closing stocks Opening stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Closing stocks Opening stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Closing stocks
1 2

UNITED STATES
32.3 324.0 2.9 359.2 290.3 41.1 27.8 3.7 23.0 1.0 27.6 19.1 5.1 3.4 1.9 32.8 0.0 34.8 9.8 20.8 4.1 3.0 12.6 0.0 15.6 6.8 6.3 2.5 19.9 149.0 7.3 176.2 150.5 6.5 19.3 60.8 541.4 11.2 613.4 476.6 79.7 57.1 27.8 286.3 5.8 319.9 275.4 22.6 21.9 21.9 357.1 2.9 382.0 299.2 34.1 48.7 2.9 26.0 0.5 29.5 20.0 5.1 4.4 2.1 34.3 0.0 36.4 10.4 23.5 2.5 2.3 11.8 0.0 14.1 6.7 4.9 2.5 15.4 152.9 8.0 176.2 152.2 6.2 17.9 44.5 582.2 11.4 638.1 488.4 73.8 76.0

UNITED STATES (Aug./July)
1.5 5.9 0.6 8.0 3.5 3.2 1.3 7.7 23.4 0.8 31.8 12.3 7.0 12.6 21.5 105.3 0.1 126.9 92.8 10.3 23.8 0.3 6.2 0.1 6.5 3.1 2.8 0.6 2.9 28.2 0.6 31.7 21.1 7.7 2.9 33.9 168.9 2.1 204.9 132.7 31.0 41.2 1.3 6.3 0.7 8.3 3.8 3.4 1.1 12.6 23.8 0.5 36.9 12.9 7.0 17.0 23.8 104.2 0.1 128.1 96.0 8.6 23.5 0.6 5.4 0.1 6.0 2.9 2.9 0.3 2.9 29.1 0.6 32.7 21.4 8.2 3.1 41.2 168.9 1.9 212.1 137.1 30.1 44.9 1.1 6.0 0.7 7.8 3.7 3.1 1.1 17.0 24.2 0.2 41.4 13.5 7.5 20.4 23.5 106.0 0.1 129.6 98.6 7.6 23.4 0.3 6.2 0.1 6.5 3.2 2.9 0.4 3.1 29.0 0.6 32.6 21.6 7.7 3.4 44.9 171.4 1.6 217.9 140.5 28.8 48.6

23.5 54.4 3.1 80.9 32.2 28.6 20.2 7.5 25.3 0.1 32.8 9.4 17.5 5.9 3.7 14.5 0.0 18.2 5.1 11.5 1.6 6.3 29.9 0.0 36.2 6.7 24.7 4.9 10.7 137.6 7.1 155.5 127.6 16.5 11.4 51.6 261.8 10.3 323.6 180.9 98.8 44.0

20.2 61.8 3.4 85.4 37.6 27.9 19.9 5.9 27.2 0.1 33.2 9.7 18.7 4.9 1.6 9.0 0.0 10.6 5.1 4.8 0.7 4.9 22.1 0.0 27.0 5.9 18.5 2.6

19.9 56.0 3.5 79.4 36.0 25.2 18.2 4.9 29.4 0.1 34.4 9.6 18.8 6.0 0.7 11.0 0.0 11.7 5.1 5.5 1.1 2.6 24.0 0.0 26.6 6.0 18.0 2.6 8.0 139.0 6.5 153.5 124.6 17.5 11.5 36.1 259.4 10.1 305.6 181.2 85.0 39.4

CANADA (August/July)

CANADA
3.4 24.4 0.6 28.4 19.7 5.8 2.9

THAILAND (Nov./Oct.)3

ARGENTINA (Dec./Nov.)

ARGENTINA
4.1 31.1 0.0 35.2 9.9 23.3 2.1

INDIA (Oct./Sept.)3

AUSTRALIA (Oct./Sept.)

AUSTRALIA
2.5 11.3 0.0 13.7 6.5 4.9 2.3

PAKISTAN (Nov./Oct.)3

EU (July/June)
11.4 131.3 6.0 148.7 119.2 21.5 8.0 44.0 251.3 9.5 304.8 177.4 91.3 36.1

EU
19.3 142.3 12.2 173.8 152.4 6.0 15.4 57.1 495.4 18.6 571.1 463.9 62.6 44.5

VIET NAM (Nov./Oct.)3

TOTAL OF ABOVE

TOTAL OF ABOVE

TOTAL OF ABOVE

Trade data include wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent. For the EU semolina is also included. Argentina (December/November) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Australia (November/October) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Canada (August/July); EU (July/June); United States (June/May) for rye, barley and oats, (September/August) for maize and sorghum. 3 Rice trade data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.

1 104

2 1.8 4.5 1.9 0.0 59.1 92.4 76.2 0.5 57.5 27.6 93.5 0.8 11.2 0.3 0.4 4.1 49.6 60.7 30.1.1 3.2 2.9 1.9 0.0 0.4 2011/12 estim.8 5.6 5.2 271.7 0.5 300.2 1.2 1.2 4.4 3.5 16.4 2.6 49.6 0.2 0.9 0.3 4.6 56.1 116.3 4.2 16.9 114.3 5.2 0.9 28.0 453.1 37.0 0.5 1.1 65.7 176.1 0.0 84.1 6.8 8.4 0.9 5.6 0.3 3.3 3.4 0.8 4.4 3.1 0. India Indonesia Iran.2 3.0 0.1 37.7 12.4 5.5 70.7 16.1 0.4 2.7 5.2 4.6 181.1 44.4 60.9 53.0 3.3 1.1 0.3 17.4 13.8 133. 08/09-10/11 average 2.7 131.1 69.1 2.3 59.2 5.1 0.2 0.3 3.9 0.3 19.*.3 0.1 2.0 5.9 1.1 28.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 115.0 49.5 1.8 1.0 9.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes) .5 17.4 2011/12 estim.9 26.7 3.4 37.4.8 2.2 10.1 4. with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown.9 57.2 131.9 19.7 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.8 2.5 AFRICA Nigeria CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Paraguay NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown.6 10. 1 Statistical appendix a p p endix Imports 2012/13 f’cast Exports 2012/13 f’cast 08/09-10/11 average 73.8 1.9 84.6 86.4 59.1 12.6 2.3 0.0 2.0 5.7 133.7 2.6 272.2 56.7 1.0 115.3 18.3 53.1 2.8 153.6 64. 105 05 .7 5. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Thailand Turkey 128.2 56.1 11.9 2. calendar year production for the second year shown is used.7 1.4 8.3 37.0 3.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.0 0.5 3.6 477.2 6.7 1.1 105.3 2.4 0.3.8 39.8 112.7 1.1 35.2 0.8 126.5 105. 2012/13 f’cast ASIA China of which Taiwan Prov.5 39.8 96.2 0.4 3.8 0.1 2.2 2.5 8.1 0.7 113.9 0.0 4.0 4.1 0.4 0.1 5.1 0.1 0.2.4 5.7 2.0 1.7 0. for tree crops which are produced throughout the year.1 1.6 9.9 70.7 1.3 1.1 0.2 46.9 5.5 11.6 12.3 36.0 55.0 88.3 0.0 445.5 10.2 51.4 89.3 0.3 0.9 51.0 3.9 0.3 0.1.8 0.9 3.6 17.9 0.7 50.9 136.5 17. Islamic Republic of Japan Korea.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.9 10.9 11.0 70.2 2.8 0.0 136.8 3.6 4.4 0.2 3.6 0.9 26.3 8.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 17.2 0.8 10.9 173.0 116.5 1.8 0.> Production 08/09-10/11 2011/12 average estim.0 53.0 20.4 50.5 29.

1 2.1 0.7 122.4 0.8 6.3 0.3 10.6 1.2 1.6 0.1 0.3 56.0 0.Food Outlo Outlook o o k .5 3.6 0.8 2.6 0.4 2.4 10.4 3.6 14.3 3.0 0.4 11.9 0.3 2.4 1.8 0.7 60.1 0.1 1.6 0.1 20.5 0.4 1.7 3.1.4 1.2 0.7 76.1 6.1 1.1 0.0 3.8 0.0 5.1 0.2 2.6 0.9 5.6 1.0 2.1 9.5 1.1 0.7 1.9 0.3 13.0 1.8 8.6 30.6 67. marine and animal origin.1 0.8 1.9 20.4 73.6 1.2 18.8 1.0 4.1 0.3 15.5 25.7 3.6 0.9 36.8 1.4 59. 08/09-10/11 average 83.9 0.1 1.0 17.7 1.1 84.0 8.2 15.0 2.4 48.8 20.1 1.4 0.0 2.7 1.6 4.4 2.3 10.5 1.5 22.8 0.5 0.3 1.3 16.5 1.1 1.9 1.7 0.2 0.3 4.6 4.8 33.2 0.1 8.3 46.1 0.4 62.3 109. Exports 2012/13 f’cast Utilization 2012/13 f’cast 08/09-10/11 average 41.4 0.9 36.3 30.9 76.8 20.9 0.4 0.4 4.2 0.1 0.2 19.7 2.0 0.0 0.7 1.4.2 1.3 0.2 43.6 62.5 4.4 7.6 8.8 0.3 97.3 44.8 1.1 0.3 7.4 0.5 0.1 1.7 73.8 2.2 0.5 10.7 11.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 19.9 19.5 2.8 0.9 0.3 3.8 23.4 126.6 3.3 0.4 1.6 34.8 0.3 1.0 1.4 93.1 0.6 8.1 4.1 1.9 3.2 0.0 2.9 0.1 1.1 8.1 1.4 2.0 2.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS (million tonnes) .2 1.8 1.7 0.7 184.1 1.9 0.5 30.9 0.4 0.6 4.9 3.9 0.6 30.8 8.7 169.5 76.6 1.0 4. 2012/13 f’cast ASIA Bangladesh China of which Taiwan Prov.2 0.3.2.8 35.5 0.1 2.9 16.2 4.2 4.4 27.6 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 8.2 12.7 10.6 1.9 2.5 2011/12 estim.7 2.5 0.4 13.0 88.5 1.*.8 2.6 3.4 4.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 8.7 2011/12 estim.9 1.6 12.9 0.4 32.4 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Nigeria South Africa CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 Includes oils and fats of vegetable.7 3.1 0.3 13.0 1.1 0.2 17.0 1.7 13.8 3.9 6.9 2.3 1.1 1.5 0.4 3.5 2. 1 106 .5 21.3 1.8 0.6 1.4 4.8 18.5 36.6 19.8 3.8 3.8 5.0 21.9 0.4 52.1 1.4 5.3 6.7 3.3 1.0 1.1 7.1 0.7 2.1 9.4 1.0 16.2 0.8 1.6 4.0 0.1 0.7 41.2 0.6 0.8 2.3 0.8 2.2 2.7 0.> Imports 08/09-10/11 2011/12 average estim.7 0.4 67.1 0. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Singapore Turkey 36.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 2.7 188.3 1.5 2.1 17.4 2.1 3.6 0.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 4. India Indonesia Iran Japan Korea.7 55.0 0.5 14.3 1.0 1.0 7.3 53.4 19.2 8.2 1.7 37.9 13.3 5.5 7.1.8 9.

3 10.0 108.5 30.2 3.6 15.9 21.1 0.9 0.2 12.2 9.4 61.9 60.6 12.5 0.0 146.1 3.3 11.5 2.8 4.6 1.7 0.0 53.8 5.3 0.7 11.9 3.4 12.9 3.7 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.1 6.4 26.2 3.8 83.6 165.2 14.5 4.1 60.2 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.8 58.4 275.9 73.8 13.0 28.1 40.9 8.1 0.0 31.1 83.8 0.3 0.6 39.6 5.2 0.1.1 45.2 2.9 0.5 2.9 5.2 0. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 27.0 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.2.3 5.5 0.8 4.6 43.0 4.9 4.8 4.1 82.5 7.0 5.1 0.3 0.2 163.5 0.8 62.9 0.1 23.4 0.3 1.8 3.5 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.4 3.6 3.3.5 0.3 0.8 3.8 3.9 3.5 14.2 0.2 0.8 82.2 3.3 107.1 0.1 2.1 44.5 2.9 1.6 6.5 0.2 0.3 13.1 0.9 5.4 11.4 0.1 2.0 0.2 2.6 11.9 3.3 0.6 1.3 1.3 254.9 4.6 2.5 0.2 31.5 4.6 2011/12 estim.2 30.5 1.6 31. India Indonesia Japan Korea.4 0.4.2 3.1 17.1 3.1 2.0 0.5 0.2 75.4 36.9 1.4 1.3 33.9 0.2 32.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.8 4.0 21.5 3.7 AFRICA Egypt South Africa CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Paraguay Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 Expressed in product weight.4 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.9 28.5 272.3 1.1 0.2 1.3 0.7 13.8 3.3 25. includes meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as fish meal and other meals from animal origin.1 0.1 43.9 1.1 13.0 3.3 1.2 0.1 2.1 1.9 8.> Imports 08/09-10/11 2011/12 average estim.4 1.8 2.1 1.7 5.0 0.5 0.3 3.6 6.7 5.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 0.4 5.4 131.2 2.1 11.4 4.5 3.6 1.1 1.4 3.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.2 23.8 7.5 0.3 4.9 0. Statistical appendix a p p endix Exports 2012/13 f’cast Utilization 2012/13 f’cast 08/09-10/11 average 13.8 3.9 27.2 3.4 33.4 1.6 2.1 5.7 0.1 2.7 0.7 3.*.3 7.9 3.2 0.0 0.6 2. 08/09-10/11 average 115.9 0.1 1.1 2.5 0.2 13.6 0.6 1.2 4.5 4.4 0.7 105.8 23.7 1.9 1.5 31.0 11.6 35.5 4.2 3.6 3.8 1.0 0.APPENDIX TABLE 12: TOTAL MEALS AND CAKES STATISTICS1 (million tonnes) .4 1.8 4.4 7.1 0.4 11.7 1.3 3.3 6.5 29.6 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.4 14.5 111.3 3.9 1.6 3.8 0.4 33.6 61.0 2.5 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.9 2.3 51.7 1.4 2011/12 estim.7 1.9 1.2 54.8 2.3 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.4 15.7 132.8 3.1 9.1 2.1 0.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 1.9 42.2 106.6 1.2 1.2 13.6 2.3 3.4 9.2 3.9 0.0 3. 2012/13 f’cast ASIA China of which Taiwan Prov.6 1.8 3.9 4.8 3. 107 07 .4 61.0 90.5 0.3 2.2 3.6 72.9 13.5 39.2 0.7 75.7 1.2 0.2 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.1 2.4 0.1 0.6 3.1.2 0.5 2.1 0.

1 0.2 131.3 2.6 10.8 0.3 0.2 5.6 0.3 0.7 14. Exports 2011/12 estim.6 7.1 10.6 0.3 0.1 2.3 0.2 2.4 0.7 5.2 2.2 0.5 2.1 9.6 5.4 0.9 35.1 38.2 3.8 0.7 0.2 1.6 8.2 0.1 1.6 1.8 51.> Production 2011/12 estim.8 5.6 2.1 0.8 13.4 1.0 6.4 3.6 2.0 8.7 0.2 0.1 23.4 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.3 1.0 137.2 10.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 5.6 17.2 2.9 0.1 1.9 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.4 7.6 4.9 0.8 2.6 17. Imports 2011/12 estim.1 12.2 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.1 0.2 1.4 0.1 3.3 0.2 14.9 43.6 31.0 0.6 3.1 0.9 0.8 2.*.3 44.5 0.5 0.1 1.8 21. of CENTRAL AMERICA Cuba Dominican Republic Guatemala Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Colombia Peru Venezuela NORTH AMERICA United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia Fiji WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 108 .2 0.2.1 0.0 1.1 10.2 22.0 0.6 22.7 4.3 2.4 0.3 2.4 1.3 49.5 2.2 1.7 0.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 13: SUGAR STATISTICS (million tonnes) .2 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 118.0 1.4 18.4 1.4 0.2 2.3 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 2.6 5.7 18.1 173.Food Outlo Outlook o o k .9 79.1 51.0 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 3.0 1.4 2.2 12.6 1.5 8.1.9 0.3 48.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 26.8 5.2 180.1 0.2 3.6 0.4 1.1 9.3 6.6 2.8 4.3 14.3 18.4 1.1 0.1 169.5 0.1 2.2 5.0 0.1 0.3 3.7 0.1 1.9 1.2 2.2 0.0 6.0 0.6 3.3 23.3 25.2 0.6 1.1 36.9 0.6 17.0 19.9 2.7 78.4 0.6 5.6 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.7 26.5 3.0 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.1 19.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 26.7 4.8 1.3 2. 2012/13 f’cast 2012/13 f’cast 2012/13 f’cast 2012/13 f’cast ASIA China India Indonesia Japan Korea.9 3.3 0.9 4.5 121.9 0. Utilization 2011/12 estim.3 0.1 1.1 14.3 0.2 0.1 1.3 25.3 2.2 0.1 45.2 0.9 2.3 3.1.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 6.1 1.4 4.6 4.6 2.6 12.5 8.3 5.1 0. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 67.3 0.4 8.5 0.6 28.1 76.8 1.6 7.6 0.0 1.4 1.9 68.5 42.5 77.5 3.3 21.3 0.2 2.2 0.5 5.0 0.4 10.5 0.3 61.5 21.0 3.6 15.5 0.9 1.6 0.7 28.1 2.6 2.3 12.4 1.8 5.9 5.6 2.7 0.2 4.7 11.3 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.8 7.2 10.3 5. United Rep.6 0.2 1.2 3.1 0.9 0.8 13.0 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Mauritius Mozambique South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania.3.5 8.5 5.6 1.1 2.1 0.8 3.7 0.1 52.5 45.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 2.5 10.5 24.7 51.5 2.6 46.5 62.2 2.1 0.2 175.5 34.9 0.7 6.5 4.1 0.6 2.6 0.7 0.4 26.3 1.6 2.6 30.

> Production 2012 estim. Utilization 2012 estim.1.APPENDIX TABLE 14: TOTAL MEAT STATISTICS1 (million tonnes) . Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Singapore Thailand Turkey Viet Nam 128 342 83 736 201 6 593 3 050 2 256 3 259 2 136 1 698 2 793 2 871 775 115 2 682 2 646 4 229 17 265 619 236 1 910 1 454 2 876 8 879 300 6 108 38 878 4 838 24 083 1 485 2 256 648 1 680 46 829 4 312 42 516 57 636 1 035 45 018 7 705 2 049 6 021 4 141 1 389 303 850 184 137 119 713 28 406 10 320 131 140 85 255 201 7 072 3 100 2 322 3 242 2 369 1 706 2 910 2 936 782 116 2 698 2 685 4 305 17 549 622 245 1 958 1 469 2 913 8 954 305 6 133 39 862 5 119 24 518 1 526 2 263 668 1 785 46 809 4 233 42 575 57 621 1 071 44 696 7 951 2 059 6 232 4 264 1 470 308 167 188 220 119 947 29 283 10 499 14 589 3 726 1 926 2 51 201 3 149 1 039 264 4 350 1 037 317 91 94 1 161 2 810 100 563 442 1 463 2 629 267 1 651 1 085 40 72 278 96 31 477 2 407 809 1 584 5 190 166 1 393 2 733 389 420 220 54 29 130 16 966 12 164 2 977 1 418 14 685 3 877 2 012 2 46 176 3 133 852 269 4 342 1 059 336 95 100 1 176 2 927 106 618 426 1 489 2 707 272 1 758 1 091 43 70 281 107 33 461 2 573 835 1 723 5 163 172 1 390 2 759 328 439 235 56 29 585 17 219 12 366 3 011 1 491 4 791 1 816 840 1 365 5 32 10 35 43 49 26 61 25 850 331 20 143 4 31 545 293 7 704 552 6 222 314 11 362 9 373 1 720 7 653 4 746 390 4 094 28 129 2 583 1 720 860 29 885 13 129 16 756 1 567 6 5 011 1 692 722 1 567 5 33 11 36 46 52 28 65 25 927 381 20 146 4 31 582 334 8 005 608 6 407 330 14 379 9 176 1 715 7 461 4 578 404 3 856 32 175 2 703 1 804 896 30 200 13 689 16 511 1 769 5 138 140 85 647 1 287 5 230 3 096 2 425 6 397 3 140 1 919 2 748 3 195 1 751 407 1 923 2 408 5 370 19 932 719 799 2 349 1 456 3 307 10 962 567 7 465 32 259 4 326 17 933 1 449 2 340 318 2 157 39 863 3 402 36 447 58 081 811 42 317 10 409 2 308 3 858 2 641 583 303 095 187 974 115 122 29 816 11 732 140 814 87 440 1 491 5 507 3 141 2 464 6 365 3 184 1 929 2 861 3 250 1 776 428 1 867 2 404 5 460 20 330 727 863 2 380 1 470 3 371 11 079 577 7 557 32 948 4 553 18 181 1 477 2 357 322 2 246 40 206 3 354 36 837 58 206 838 42 230 10 678 2 212 3 967 2 695 631 307 552 191 750 115 802 30 525 11 984 AFRICA Algeria Angola Egypt Nigeria South Africa CENTRAL AMERICA Cuba Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Uruguay Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE Belarus European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia New Zealand WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 Including “other meat”. Exports 2012 estim.1.2.3. SAR India Indonesia Iran.*. 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast ASIA China of which Hong Kong. Statistical appendix a p p endix Imports 2012 estim. Islamic Republic of Japan Korea. 109 09 .

Islamic Republic of Japan Korea.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 15: BOVINE MEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes.1.1. carcass weight equivalent) . Exports 2013 f’cast Utilization 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2012 estim.Food Outlo Outlook o o k . Imports 2012 estim.*. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines 17 175 6 474 2 761 530 250 519 312 31 1 500 305 6 723 127 102 800 850 2 549 1 820 15 025 2 500 9 307 198 945 488 496 12 925 1 057 11 868 10 367 7 641 1 649 365 2 801 2 131 650 67 564 38 357 29 206 10 604 4 184 17 624 6 532 3 032 560 260 505 336 32 1 500 310 6 814 125 104 816 870 2 543 1 800 15 411 2 675 9 500 195 930 500 498 12 500 1 000 11 500 10 340 7 603 1 665 360 2 908 2 188 700 68 140 39 260 28 881 11 005 4 240 3 571 566 1 45 152 739 349 163 3 129 718 94 129 317 9 371 231 493 2 62 173 2 235 1 266 301 961 1 426 305 996 7 58 12 10 7 903 4 269 3 634 698 189 3 746 702 1 40 140 776 320 170 3 125 703 100 135 285 8 407 277 494 2 60 176 2 235 1 424 315 1 105 1 430 315 990 7 55 10 10 8 259 4 420 3 839 666 196 1 697 154 1 346 1 2 2 3 9 27 6 75 1 11 381 182 2 219 185 1 458 7 10 325 1 505 317 1 188 574 377 8 18 1 765 1 290 472 8 216 4 358 3 859 1 510 4 1 885 132 1 548 1 2 2 3 10 28 8 77 1 10 402 205 2 367 200 1 550 7 12 340 1 479 312 1 167 547 347 9 20 1 841 1 343 495 8 598 4 717 3 881 1 712 3 19 000 6 887 1 416 574 401 1 256 606 185 1 476 428 7 365 221 231 1 116 848 2 539 1 869 13 298 2 317 7 911 364 937 163 731 12 653 1 012 11 637 11 218 7 569 2 636 353 1 082 842 188 67 155 38 219 28 936 9 792 4 369 19 482 7 102 1 485 599 399 1 276 653 192 1 475 427 7 440 225 239 1 100 868 2 548 1 872 13 538 2 477 8 010 364 920 160 733 12 486 1 018 11 464 11 223 7 571 2 646 347 1 107 840 215 67 824 38 962 28 862 9 958 4 434 AFRICA Algeria Angola Egypt South Africa CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Uruguay Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia New Zealand WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 110 .2. 2012 estim.3.> Production 2012 estim. 2013 f’cast ASIA China India Indonesia Iran.

Exports 2012 estim.APPENDIX TABLE 16: OVINE MEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes.> Production 2012 estim.*. Statistical appendix a p p endix Imports 2012 estim.1.3. carcass weight equivalent) .1. 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast ASIA Bangladesh China India Iran.2. Islamic Republic of Pakistan Saudi Arabia Turkey 7 827 205 3 932 910 240 450 88 300 2 906 195 470 163 482 132 102 324 115 87 72 1 287 972 195 1 035 565 470 13 599 10 415 3 184 4 075 1 859 7 884 210 3 932 920 245 455 89 310 2 942 195 475 160 484 134 104 325 117 89 73 1 276 956 200 1 105 622 483 13 755 10 502 3 253 4 145 1 899 442 159 11 55 1 31 3 5 18 8 6 6 95 79 174 154 10 31 1 2 798 500 297 39 5 487 185 12 58 1 31 4 5 17 7 7 7 93 77 181 160 10 34 1 2 849 548 301 42 5 47 6 12 18 5 27 22 6 6 29 22 692 342 350 823 96 727 14 - 48 5 13 20 5 28 23 5 5 31 24 735 375 360 871 99 772 15 - 8 222 205 4 085 898 251 432 138 301 2 910 198 470 168 482 150 110 308 121 176 144 1 432 1 104 205 375 224 122 13 573 10 819 2 754 4 100 1 864 8 323 210 4 113 908 257 435 142 311 2 944 199 475 165 484 150 111 309 123 177 145 1 426 1 092 210 404 248 125 13 733 10 951 2 782 4 173 1 905 AFRICA Algeria Nigeria South Africa Sudan CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Brazil NORTH AMERICA United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation OCEANIA Australia New Zealand WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 111 1 . Utilization 2012 estim.

> Production 2012 estim. D.2.P.*. 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast ASIA China of which Hong Kong.R.1. Exports 2012 estim. SAR India Indonesia Japan Korea.3.1. Imports 2012 estim.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 17: PIGMEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes. Korea. Republic of Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam 63 944 53 361 140 329 730 1 297 115 1 086 230 1 655 870 3 160 1 300 56 243 320 120 1 758 180 1 227 5 218 331 3 330 584 185 175 12 538 1 980 10 558 27 256 427 22 813 2 518 290 600 493 352 67 112 506 70 394 42 112 4 045 1 432 65 717 54 806 140 329 737 1 305 120 1 280 230 1 700 875 3 200 1 320 56 245 320 123 1 795 182 1 255 5 334 350 3 370 620 187 178 12 616 1 952 10 664 26 901 443 22 357 2 608 290 590 482 340 67 114 165 72 329 41 836 4 119 1 466 3 429 1 252 524 1 1 1 283 2 508 13 101 3 37 268 43 801 42 614 172 32 1 25 36 29 703 264 434 1 664 135 20 1 088 19 263 254 195 6 7 290 3 302 3 989 245 187 3 239 1 233 500 1 1 1 251 2 356 10 101 3 35 295 45 826 45 645 189 35 2 30 46 25 706 268 433 1 613 139 20 1 098 15 200 272 211 6 7 141 3 206 3 935 251 208 451 377 122 1 2 7 6 28 20 8 4 121 100 888 1 711 174 3 540 1 206 2 334 2 479 145 2 266 2 10 29 35 34 7 522 1 463 6 058 10 - 472 392 120 1 1 8 6 35 20 8 4 135 116 921 1 733 185 3 380 1 200 2 180 2 260 154 2 040 2 10 25 34 33 7 211 1 532 5 679 10 - 66 882 54 236 541 330 731 2 580 117 1 551 236 1 750 844 3 177 1 560 56 243 360 120 2 438 222 1 741 4 502 361 2 620 435 221 204 9 663 1 039 8 620 26 440 417 20 567 3 604 299 833 713 514 73 112 198 72 192 40 006 4 280 1 619 68 473 55 648 520 330 737 2 555 122 1 625 232 1 795 843 3 215 1 606 56 245 361 123 2 487 227 1 784 4 603 384 2 639 465 233 203 9 931 1 020 8 906 26 254 428 20 337 3 704 295 765 721 518 73 114 074 73 994 40 080 4 360 1 674 AFRICA Madagascar Nigeria South Africa Uganda CENTRAL AMERICA Cuba Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE Belarus European Union Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine OCEANIA Australia Papua New Guinea WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 112 .Food Outlo Outlook o o k . carcass weight equivalent) . Utilization 2012 estim.

Exports 2012 estim. carcass weight equivalent) .APPENDIX TABLE 18: POULTRY MEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes. Utilization 2012 estim.1. Statistical appendix a p p endix Imports 2012 estim. SAR India Indonesia Iran.3.2.*. Islamic Republic of Japan Korea.> Production 2012 estim.1. Republic of Kuwait Malaysia Saudi Arabia Singapore Thailand Turkey Yemen 37 474 18 510 47 2 447 1 671 1 750 1 430 727 39 1 435 590 96 1 550 1 700 155 4 926 23 1 520 4 321 36 2 857 18 004 1 825 11 300 675 1 000 21 031 1 237 19 794 17 531 12 550 3 252 1 035 1 272 1 071 175 104 560 60 992 43 568 7 970 2 215 37 978 18 517 47 2 643 1 681 1 800 1 420 742 39 1 442 595 96 1 560 1 712 160 5 034 24 1 540 4 362 37 2 872 18 481 1 910 11 500 685 1 100 21 354 1 243 20 111 17 908 12 738 3 388 1 060 1 308 1 092 190 106 425 62 094 44 331 8 264 2 246 7 093 1 743 1 073 37 1 093 169 133 68 810 146 2 84 105 1 762 301 405 1 420 210 784 412 6 2 79 213 332 225 102 1 761 814 593 118 72 11 1 12 852 8 803 4 048 1 961 1 010 7 137 1 751 1 075 1 073 162 120 67 818 155 2 90 105 1 866 330 431 1 440 215 815 400 6 2 75 200 338 233 100 1 773 795 615 120 73 12 1 13 026 8 932 4 095 2 018 1 055 2 571 1 263 649 6 29 7 30 1 27 30 11 770 311 24 10 41 10 4 508 331 4 029 125 4 284 177 4 107 1 579 1 347 17 81 50 40 10 13 059 7 117 5 942 27 1 2 580 1 148 550 5 30 8 32 1 28 32 11 840 360 25 11 43 12 4 627 371 4 100 130 4 273 183 4 090 1 654 1 363 20 130 52 40 12 13 254 7 245 6 009 25 1 41 994 18 990 470 2 441 1 671 1 758 2 516 866 172 1 476 1 370 231 782 1 473 260 6 664 324 1 914 5 700 246 3 631 13 908 1 500 7 273 629 1 213 17 013 1 284 15 723 17 713 12 017 3 828 1 072 1 296 1 044 166 104 288 62 677 41 611 9 904 3 224 42 535 19 121 572 2 638 1 681 1 770 2 485 872 159 1 481 1 381 240 721 1 442 265 6 876 354 1 960 5 758 252 3 675 14 254 1 545 7 402 630 1 300 17 428 1 293 16 130 18 027 12 170 3 983 1 050 1 328 1 064 179 106 205 63 779 42 426 10 257 3 300 AFRICA Angola South Africa CENTRAL AMERICA Cuba Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia New Zealand WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 113 3 . 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast 2013 f’cast ASIA China of which Hong Kong.

*. 3 Dairy years ending May of the year stated (production only). Refer to IDF Bulletin No. skim milk (0.3. Islamic Republic of Japan Korea. 390 (March 2004).60). milk powder (7.90). cheese (4.10).40). Note: Trade figures refer to the milk equivalent trade in the following products: butter (6. milk equivalent) . Imports 2013 f’cast Exports 2013 f’cast 2009-2011 average 23 223 4 407 281 1 535 330 1 203 504 1 053 155 1 375 2 071 1 355 782 215 9 292 2 432 1 273 23 104 290 65 4 025 31 2 338 2 330 23 658 27 13 1 100 1 609 261 1 332 5 218 37 906 3 456 154 807 563 72 46 503 37 054 9 450 11 066 3 003 2012 estim. cream (3.0).60). 2 1 114 .40).4. Dairy years ending June of the year stated (production only).70). skim condensed/evaporated milk (1. 2013 f’cast ASIA China India1 Indonesia Iran.Food Outlo Outlook o o k .> 2009-2011 average Production 2012 estim. casein (7.60). The conversion factors cited refer to the solids content method.2.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 19: MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS STATISTICS (thousand tonnes.1. 2009-2011 average 5 245 176 223 165 232 12 12 270 31 288 1 531 597 127 182 1 424 9 768 33 89 54 532 109 151 3 180 1 749 175 18 840 4 329 148 4 180 14 440 2 013 10 974 158 616 17 680 3 244 14 433 46 830 10 227 36 603 2 182 123 2012 estim. Republic of Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia Singapore Thailand Turkey 266 731 41 128 122 057 1 307 7 460 7 702 2 059 74 35 503 15 1 877 850 13 714 42 754 2 527 5 751 4 229 3 198 7 472 1 088 16 238 943 10 813 64 229 10 787 30 777 7 532 1 916 2 293 95 743 8 285 87 457 214 226 6 569 153 251 32 015 11 315 26 369 9 171 17 129 726 290 359 349 366 941 174 522 30 895 289 431 44 233 133 700 1 395 7 900 7 632 1 899 76 37 866 18 2 100 870 16 700 45 684 3 180 5 850 4 280 3 340 7 600 1 120 16 510 1 014 11 111 69 520 11 493 33 045 7 600 2 200 2 481 99 307 8 450 90 856 217 662 6 863 156 400 31 912 11 380 29 292 9 480 19 742 767 407 389 182 378 225 189 439 33 084 301 619 46 745 139 000 1 465 8 200 7 532 1 918 77 39 115 20 2 200 880 18 400 46 564 3 339 5 900 4 350 3 375 7 675 1 130 16 582 1 065 11 107 71 818 11 500 34 036 7 650 2 266 2 580 100 038 8 500 91 537 218 816 7 200 156 550 32 230 11 722 28 990 9 320 19 600 784 427 404 015 380 413 196 017 33 786 28 013 6 478 162 1 746 401 1 385 560 1 221 317 1 379 2 948 1 341 973 161 8 841 2 504 1 436 24 211 274 78 4 446 40 2 636 3 836 39 969 173 20 1 867 1 698 259 1 420 5 936 52 906 3 987 189 848 574 86 53 618 43 119 10 499 10 472 3 073 29 598 7 080 122 1 833 546 1 436 615 1 269 343 1 397 3 200 1 303 860 160 8 764 2 463 1 403 21 227 264 78 4 367 42 2 651 3 223 36 906 103 20 1 391 1 691 263 1 410 6 092 57 913 4 117 183 851 584 64 54 587 43 870 10 714 10 450 3 049 5 881 211 411 87 316 2 13 405 38 168 1 923 571 116 200 1 208 10 581 15 100 41 534 128 128 3 800 2 074 72 5 1 150 5 384 159 5 224 16 145 2 234 12 477 96 601 20 715 3 245 17 466 53 667 11 285 42 380 1 932 136 6 032 191 510 77 319 2 15 446 42 159 1 925 559 113 221 1 165 10 511 10 100 41 506 120 113 3 617 1 882 76 3 1 162 5 282 169 5 112 16 295 2 618 12 261 90 571 21 779 3 451 18 324 54 676 11 180 43 494 1 951 149 AFRICA Algeria Egypt Kenya South Africa Sudan Tunisia CENTRAL AMERICA Costa Rica Mexico SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Colombia Uruguay Venezuela NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE Belarus European Union Russian Federation Ukraine OCEANIA Australia2 New Zealand3 WORLD Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 Dairy years starting April of the year stated (production only).1. yoghurt (1. whole condensed/evaporated milk (2.

of Philippines Thailand Viet Nam 48.> Capture fisheries Aquaculture production fisheries production 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 Exports 2011 USD billion 41.4 17.8 45.2 0.0 54.6 17.4 60.8 33.2 24.3 0.1 0. Million tonnes (live weight equivalent) ASIA China2 of which: Hong Kong SAR Taiwan Prov.2 70.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 2.6 2.9 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 8.1 1.3 1.3 3.8 2.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 53.3 2.1 1. 115 5 .7 0..2 6.4 93.2 3.0 1.3 3.2 0.1 3.2 0.3 4.0 5.2 4. seals.3 0. Cyprus is included in the European Union as well as in Asia.2 3.5 12.9 127.1 0.8 3.8 0.8 2.6 0.1 2.0 21.4 1. 3 For capture fisheries production.8 2.6 0.8 0.3 3.2 1.5 3.8 16.0 3.3 2.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 48.5 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.9 4.6 90.5 5. Imports 2010 2011 USD billion 42.9 2.1 59.0 0.7 24.0 0.5 2.7 17.7 1.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 18.9 87.5 7.9 0.7 4.1 12.3 0.5 8.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 43.4 57.4 1.5 55.8 1.3 0.5 1.5 1.9 3.8 0.9 4.3 52.1 46.5 8.4 2.7 23.2 67.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.4 37.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 5.1 62.4.5 47.5 2.4 0.7 1.3 5.2 49.9 5.0 1.2 0.9 2.2 14.1 2.1 0.8 2.9 4.1 4. data not included in any other aggregates.2 0. Including intra-trade.2 3.4 1.1 0.2 4.3 5.1 1.2 0.1 0.6 2012 estim.6 1.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 3.4 0.1 12.5 0.9 25.2 17.1 4.9 3.9 2.5 27.1 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.3 3.9 1.5 0.1 109.6 2.1 1.6 3.7 1.7 0.1 4.3 2.4 4.4 0.7 2.0 0.6 2.4 4.2. Rep.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.3 24.5 5.8 2.3 14.2 9.9 1.9 34.0 0.8 8.7 2.1 2.7 0.2 9.7 5.7 2.7 1.1 95.2 9.3 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.7 44.4 4.4 89.1 2.2 5.7 9.2 0.8 2012 estim.3 0.1 2. Intra-EU Developing countries Developed countries LIFDCs LDCs 1 2 Production and trade data exclude whales.9 0.6 21.2 128.0 9.8 2.5 2.4 3. other aquatic mammals and aquatic plants.1 9.4 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.9 1.3 1.5 4.4 0.9 3.1 12.7 94.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 39. Trade data include fish meal and fish oil.1 20.2 0.0 0.4 13.7 1.7 0.8 0.5 55. the aggregate includes also 19 214 tonnes in 2010 and 19 566 in 2011 of not identified countries.1 2.3 1.7 4.1 7.2 1.1.3 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.8 53.1 1.5 0.4 0.7 2.5 10.9 55.2 2.1 108.6 7.3.7 16.9 1.7 0.8 1.0 5.9 2.2 0.2 9.8 4.4 2.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 20.6 8.3 5.0 8.6 0.9 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 128.5 0.3 0. India Indonesia Japan Korea.7 1.8 0.5 38.7 0.1 0.0 82.1 1.2 13.1 0.7 58.6 0.5 2.2 2.5 69.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 2.7 19.APPENDIX TABLE 20: FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS STATISTICS1 Statistical appendix a p p endix .0 64..1 0.3 0.3 4.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 2.4 2.5 1.7 0.1 2.4 2.1 0.1 128.3 0.1 0.4 7.2 49.8 8.7 0.1 105.2 0.*.3 2.7 4.8 2.5 3.9 1.2 35.7 AFRICA Ghana Morocco Namibia Nigeria Senegal South Africa CENTRAL AMERICA Mexico Panama SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Peru NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of America EUROPE European Union2 of which Extra -EU Iceland Norway Russian Federation OCEANIA Australia New Zealand WORLD3 Excl.0 15.8 1.0 0.6 1.0 27.2 0.8 2.2 0.8 106.7 0.3 0.6 1.5 52.4 3.6 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 103.7 3.4 1.2 0.2 1.1 20.5 1.0 26.1 5.4 1.6 2.8 29.1.9 42.3 0.7 0.3 0.9 4.3 15.1 10.3 1.8 10.2 106.8 2.8 0.0 11.5 1.5 0.3 5.5 3.8 0.3 1.2 6.2 0.6 2.4 1.6 0.2 4.2 4.5 2.

2014 March Mar. Sources: International Grain Council and USDA APPENDIX TABLE 22: TOTAL WHEAT AND MAIZE FUTURES PRICES (USD/tonne July July 2013 July 2012 Sep.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 21: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS (USD/tonne) Wheat Period US No. 2 Yellow 2 Maize Argentina 3 Barley France feed Rouen Australia feed Eastern States Sorghum US No. 2012 Dec. 2 Hard Red Winter Ord.b. 3 Up River f. 2 Delivered United States Gulf. 2 2 Argentina Trigo Pan 3 US No.o. 2013 September Sep.o.Food Outlo Outlook o o k . Prot.b. 1 US Soft Red Winter No. 2013 December Dec. 2012 Mar. 2 Yellow 2 Annual (July/June) 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012 – May 2012 – June 2012 – July 2012 – August 2012 – September 2012 – October 2012 – November 2012 – December 2013 – January 2013 – February 2013 – March 2013 – April 2013 – May 1 154 175 212 361 270 209 316 300 279 288 352 362 372 382 373 359 328 328 323 324 329 138 138 176 311 201 185 289 259 252 250 318 332 341 339 346 325 311 297 286 279 278 123 138 188 322 234 224 311 264 251 263 314 335 336 332 345 360 362 358 346 324 315 97 104 150 200 188 160 254 281 269 268 330 328 323 320 324 310 303 303 309 282 295 90 101 145 192 180 168 260 269 246 238 285 294 278 274 294 288 294 283 276 242 257 132 133 185 319 178 146 274 276 274 260 294 299 313 312 318 312 309 301 286 289 273 123 128 185 300 179 154 247 250 248 254 303 311 310 308 309 310 308 302 284 281 289 99 109 155 206 170 165 248 264 219 234 293 296 286 290 289 288 287 288 296 261 254 Delivered United States f. 2013 Wheat Apr 17 Apr 24 May 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 Maize Apr 17 Apr 24 May 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 252 243 255 249 256 259 239 239 248 245 235 235 226 215 226 218 222 220 213 219 217 212 206 207 215 208 217 209 209 209 209 213 212 208 203 205 219 212 221 214 213 213 213 218 217 212 207 210 260 254 265 259 255 253 228 232 236 226 224 252 262 257 268 263 258 256 233 238 242 231 229 256 267 262 274 269 264 261 241 247 250 240 237 263 272 267 279 275 270 267 247 253 257 248 244 268 Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) 1 116 . Gulf.

100 percent second grade. from June 2011 onwards: Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2%.APPENDIX TABLE 23: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR RICE AND PRICE INDICES International prices (USD per tonne) FAO indices (2002-2004=100) Indica Period Thai 100% B 1 Statistical appendix a p p endix Thai broken 2 US long grain 3 Pakisan Basmati4 Total High quality Low quality Japonica Aromatic Annual (Jan/Dec) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Monthly 335 695 587 518 565 588 275 506 329 386 464 540 436 782 545 510 577 567 677 1077 937 881 1060 1137 161 294 253 229 251 240 156 296 229 211 237 230 160 287 196 212 250 242 168 314 341 264 274 248 157 251 232 231 227 236 2012 – May 2012 – June 2012 – July 2012 – August 2012 – September 2012 – October 2012 – November 2012 – December 2013 – January 2013 – February 2013 – March 2013 – April 2013 – May 1 2 613 619 600 584 602 595 598 599 611 616 594 586 574 554 545 537 532 540 544 545 546 558 562 557 551 539 544 565 573 585 600 600 608 608 616 624 644 649 652 1138 1121 1150 1142 1149 1120 1185 1312 1350 1369 1365 1362 1375 240 239 241 242 247 246 244 240 240 242 242 240 240 233 233 230 232 236 234 235 229 230 232 231 228 226 243 240 241 242 248 248 244 237 239 242 242 240 238 246 249 254 252 259 256 254 246 241 239 237 237 241 235 231 234 240 241 241 244 258 269 282 285 286 286 White rice. Bangkok. f. with high (low) quality referring to rice with less (equal to or more) than 20 percent brokens.com.o. 117 7 .o.b. Thai Department of Foreign Trade (DFT) and other public sources. A1 super.2. f.b. 3 United States No. Karachi.o.b. f. 4 Up to May 2011: Basmati ordinary. The sub-index for Aromatic Rice follows movements in prices of Basmati and Fragrant rice. Bangkok.o. Note: The FAO Rice Price Index is based on 16 rice export quotations. ‘Quality’ is defined by the percentage of broken kernels.b. 4 percent brokens f. Rice prices: Livericeindex. Sources: FAO for indices.

June 2012 . fob ex-mill. The indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 24: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR OILCROP PRODUCTS (USD/tonne) International prices (USD per tonne) Period Soybeans 1 FAO indices (2002-2004=100) Rapeseed meal 5 Oilseeds Edible/soap fats/oils Oilcakes/ meals Soybean oil 2 Palm oil 3 Soybean cake 4 Annual (Oct/Sept) 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Monthly 2011 . Rotterdam.March 2013 . ex-mill. 1 118 .September 2012 . 3 Palm oil: Crude.October 2011 . c.December 2012 .February 2012 . f.2 yellow.July 2012 .May 1 2 322 275 259 335 549 422 429 549 562 632 545 572 772 1 325 826 924 1 308 1 235 488 419 451 684 1 050 627 806 1 147 1 051 257 212 202 264 445 385 388 418 461 178 130 130 184 296 196 220 279 295 121 105 100 129 217 156 162 215 214 114 104 125 148 245 145 174 256 232 116 105 107 153 202 180 215 221 224 502 491 476 500 512 542 575 570 570 660 682 669 617 595 603 591 597 588 559 498 1 216 1 228 1 163 1 223 1 245 1 283 1 308 1 210 1 187 1 234 1 254 1 276 1 183 1 148 1 153 1 192 1 164 1 117 1 099 1 077 995 1 054 1 026 1 062 1 100 1 152 1 182 1 081 996 1 010 994 960 844 816 772 838 862 853 841 849 378 353 346 371 385 426 474 492 503 584 619 604 555 539 553 512 513 503 521 527 243 224 227 234 255 287 335 330 315 353 365 374 359 378 396 367 381 367 300 404 194 191 185 193 199 209 221 217 215 244 252 250 233 226 229 226 228 224 214 192 224 235 227 234 239 245 251 234 221 226 226 225 206 200 197 205 206 201 199 199 194 186 182 189 192 205 225 235 246 273 285 279 264 268 279 268 266 259 266 267 Soybeans: US.b.i. Hamburg.f.f. Soybean oil: Dutch.November 2011 . c. Argentina. ten selected oils and fats and seven selected cakes and meals. Note: The FAO indices are calculated using the Laspeyres formula. the weights used are the average export values of each commodity for the 2002-2004 period.March 2012 . No.f.i.Food Outlo Outlook o o k .February 2013 .April 2013 . Northwest Europe.January 2012 . Rotterdam.i. c.December 2013 .April 2012 .November 2012 . 4 Soybean cake: Pellets.January 2013 . Sources: FAO and Oil World.August 2012 . 44/45 percent.October 2012 .o.May 2012 . 5 Rapeseed meal: 34 percent.

0 368.2 283.2 25.1 9.6 257.1 12.0 181.5 22.1 22.1 21.8 25.0 23.January 2013 .April 2013 .A.0 20.9 22.96 16.3 341.March 2012 .2 28.5 22.9 326.9 334.18 18.8 259.3 26.April 2012 .8 17.3 342.November 2012 .8 18.41 140.0 294.May 2012 .2 262.3 302.5 17.2 274.APPENDIX TABLE 25: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR SUGAR AND SUGAR PRICE INDEX I.16 27.December 2012 .0 Statistical appendix a p p endix ISO (Euronext.9 20.9 119 9 .2 25.7 288.December 2013 .7 28.6 143.8 27.4 25. average of daily prices Raw Sugar Annual (Jan/Dec) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Monthly 2011 .25 31.7 23.5 22.9 18.6 24.97 13.3 209.3 19.6 250.3 18.3 18.May 25.2 339.8 10.6 23.8 29.4 324.9 361.0 267.February 2013 .9 14.8 20.September 2012 .July 2012 .February 2012 .07 22.5 24.0 23.6 30.January 2012 .3 25.0 252.7 21.S.June 2012 .8 20.4 28.3 19.3 296.5 274.October 2012 . Liffe) white sugar price index White FAO sugar price index (2002/04 = 100) (US cents/lb) 13.August 2012 .1 24.March 2013 .October 2011 .6 290.0 27.November 2011 .9 324.3 23.9 28.9 20.

October 2012 – November 2012 – December 2013 – January 2013 – February 2013 – March 2013 – April 2013 . f. indicative traded prices Whole Milk Powder. 39 percent maximum moisture. indicative traded prices Skim Milk Powder.July 2012 . indicative traded prices Note: The FAO Dairy Price Index is derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally-traded dairy products Sources: FAO for indices. 82 percent butterfat. Product prices: Mid-point of price ranges reported by Dairy Market News (USDA) 1 120 . f.Food Outlo Outlook o o k . f. Oceania. Oceania.b.August 2012 .b. 1.June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 26: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR MILK PRODUCTS AND DAIRY PRICE INDEX International prices (USD per tonne) Period Butter 1 Skim milk powder 2 Whole milk powder 3 Cheddar cheese 4 FAO dairy price index (2002-2004=100) Annual (Jan/Dec) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Monthly 2012 .b.June 2012 . Oceania.September 2012 . Oceania.May 2012 .25 percent butterfat. f.o. 26 percent butterfat.May 1 2 3 4 1 774 2 959 3 607 2 335 4 043 4 473 3 310 2 218 4 291 3 278 2 255 3 127 3 657 3 163 2 193 4 185 3 846 2 400 3 464 3 860 3 232 2 681 4 055 4 633 2 957 4 010 4 310 3 821 128 212 220 142 200 221 189 3 100 2 975 2 850 2 942 3 175 3 250 3 250 3 292 3 375 3 575 4 138 4 588 4 275 2 807 2 863 2 838 2 975 3 325 3 400 3 363 3 408 3 463 3 588 4 020 5 394 4 738 3 000 2 800 2 875 2 955 3 194 3 300 3 375 3 333 3 363 3 538 4 525 5 550 5 206 3 625 3 600 3 600 3 600 3 775 3 925 3 950 4 000 4 000 4 025 4 225 4 500 4 600 176 173 173 176 188 194 195 197 198 203 225 259 250 Butter.o. indicative traded prices Cheddar Cheese.b.o.o.

export unit value Brazil: Frozen beef. from Nov02: chucks and cow forequarters USA: Frozen beef.March 4 269 4 236 4 109 4 045 3 988 4 041 3 974 4 010 4 247 4 316 4 307 4 280 4 227 5 003 5 095 5 059 4 781 4 660 4 650 4 748 4 722 4 947 5 326 5 171 5 562 5 271 4 544 4 611 4 536 4 422 4 313 4 418 4 365 4 512 4 495 4 436 4 382 4 365 4 430 6 451 6 443 6 193 5 913 5 927 5 816 5 882 5 866 5 827 5 893 5 751 5 490 5 354 2 790 2 704 2 569 2 608 2 650 2 655 2 640 2 719 2 636 2 705 2 753 2 710 2 781 2 755 2 848 2 790 2 663 2 618 2 657 2 772 2 929 2 901 2 854 2 852 2 898 2 955 2 177 2 250 2 162 2 118 2 029 2 253 2 512 2 507 2 372 2 280 2 253 2 283 2 221 2 547 2 603 3 138 2 636 3 351 4 041 4 142 3 803 4 023 4 325 3 897 4 378 4 516 4 913 2 219 2 367 3 785 3 118 3 919 4 816 4 492 4 033 4 120 4 585 4 276 5 045 6 631 6 091 1 986 2 117 2 270 2 202 2 454 2 648 2 676 2 134 2 200 3 000 2 223 2 747 3 023 2 784 1 935 1 907 2 364 2 035 1 913 2 169 2 233 Bovine meat prices: Australia: up to Oct02 : cow forequarters frozen boneless. 85% chemical lean. cif US port (East Coast) ex-dock.APPENDIX TABLE 27: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICES Bovine meat prices (USD per tonne) Period Australia United States Brazil Ovine meat price (USD per tonne) New Zealand United States Brazil Germany Pig meat prices (USD per tonne) Statistical appendix a p p endix Annual (Jan/Dec) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Monthly 2012 – March 2012 – April 2012 – May 2012 – June 2012. London Pig meat prices: USA: Frozen pigmeat.wholesale price Smithfield Mkt. frozen whole carcasses.July 2012 – August 2012 – September 2012 – October 2012 – November 2012 – December 2013 – January 2013 – February 2013 . export unit value Ovine meat prices New Zealand: Lamb. export unit value Germany: Monthly market price for pig carcase grade E 121 21 . export unit value Brazil: Frozen pigmeat.

3 pig meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights). 1 ovine meat product quotation (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights): the four meat group average prices are weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002/2004. 3 bovine meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights). 1 122 . export unit value Brazil : Export unit value for chicken (f.Food Outlo Outlook o o k .) The FAO Meat Price Indices consist of 2 poultry meat product quotations (the average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights).July 2012 – August 2012 – September 2012 – October 2012 – November 2012 – December 2013 – January 2013 – February 2013 .June 2013 APPENDIX TABLE 28: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICES AND FAO MEAT PRICE INDICES Poultry meat prices (USD per tonne) Period United States Brazil Total meat Bovine meat FAO indices (2002-2004=100) Ovine meat Pig meat Poultry meat Annual (Jan/Dec) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Monthly 2012 – March 2012 – April 2012 – May 2012 – June 2012.o.March 1 243 1 267 1 272 1 228 1 206 1 207 1 227 1 249 1 232 1 206 1 248 1 218 1 210 1 921 1 945 1 899 1 768 1 775 1 845 2 035 2 066 2 062 2 093 2 009 2 113 2 191 178 180 175 170 167 170 175 177 178 179 177 179 178 194 196 192 186 182 185 184 186 193 198 195 199 195 164 164 158 150 151 148 150 149 148 150 146 140 136 152 154 148 146 143 151 161 164 158 155 155 156 156 201 204 202 190 189 194 208 211 210 210 207 212 217 734 935 997 989 1 032 1 147 1 228 1 180 1 443 1 896 1 552 1 781 2 083 1 931 119 125 153 133 152 177 175 119 125 157 134 163 189 190 103 105 117 109 128 169 155 123 125 152 131 138 153 153 122 151 184 162 177 206 201 Poultry meat prices: USA : Broiler cuts.b.

45 600. Separate indexes exist for products from aquaculture and from capture fisheries.96 2.77 2.00 20.95 150.January 2013 .80 92.00 17. Japan.March 2013 . Note: The FAO Fish Price Index is based on nominal import values expressed in CIF in the three major import markets.57 600.10 490.00 19.72 96.55 105. USA and EU.February 2013 .14 157.78 126.98 94. Additional sub-indexes exist for the major commodity groups based on species.63 123 23 .June 2012 .89 100.September 2012 .April 2013 . APPENDIX TABLE 30: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES Currency and unit Effective date Latest quotation One month ago One year ago Average 2008-2012 Sugar (ISA daily price) Coffee (ICO daily price) Cocoa (ICCO daily price) Tea (FAO Tea Composite Price) Cotton (COTLOOK A index) Jute “BTD” (Fob Bangladesh Port) US cents per lb US cents per lb US cents per lb USD per kg US cents per lb USD per tonne 23-05-13 22-05-13 22-05-13 30-04-13 30-04-13 22-05-13 17.32 123.31 610.84 2.August 2012 .November 2012 .July 2012 .80 2.October 2012 .May 2012 .APPENDIX TABLE 29: FISH PRICE INDICES (2002-2004=100) Period Total Aquaculture Capture White fish Salmon Shrimp Pelagic e/tuna Tuna Other fish Statistical appendix a p p endix Annual (Jan/Dec) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Monthly 2012 .68 104.December 2013 .33 105.82 129.May 145 143 141 144 142 142 143 148 149 152 155 158 168 128 125 121 121 119 117 122 123 125 131 142 151 161 154 154 153 159 156 158 156 164 165 168 170 171 173 148 145 143 140 149 142 142 143 140 138 136 132 132 156 146 140 139 137 138 141 150 158 163 174 186 195 101 105 103 101 102 107 110 110 112 115 118 119 123 202 203 225 244 235 207 230 192 190 185 185 182 182 198 194 196 215 193 193 187 203 210 214 214 221 221 179 176 173 176 168 172 171 184 185 182 184 182 183 102 109 119 109 119 154 144 99 100 104 103 119 149 124 105 116 130 114 119 157 157 110 119 130 113 121 195 146 109 110 114 120 141 124 107 98 101 108 96 107 173 207 112 118 134 126 130 175 195 102 116 139 126 125 166 176 93 98 104 98 110 151 145 Source= Norwegian Seafood Council.

M IN AR DIC K E A T M TO IN A RS DI RK CA E TO T RS .

since they mostly focused on the OTC swaps market. which was a year of steep volume drop following the collapse of two US brokerage firms. a market once revered as the ultimate safe haven. such as cocoa. coffee and sugar.INVESTMENT FLOWS Article by Ann Berg. and livestock – seem to be in a downtrend. Similarly in soybeans. Owing to their yearly production cycles. has kept cash basis levels at premiums to futures. shifting demand from South American ports to US Gulf. grain markets normally exhibit ascendant prices referred to as “contango” for the first 6 to 9 months of the crop year and thereafter descendant prices. soybean and wheat markets has been their forward curve structures. which was a record volume year for the sector. experiencing an increase of 24 percent over 2011. Senior Commodity Analyst For the first time in over a decade. maize and soybeans exhibited high levels of backwardation soon after the 2012 harvest. farmers have been unwilling to sell their maize unless paid high cash premiums. In spite of the increase. global trading volumes in futures contracts declined in North America. while ethanol plants have drawn available maize away from the narrow band of delivery points located along the Illinois River. leading to almost no soybean deliveries for current crop year. In 2013. However. declining prices and subdued volatility seem to be depressing the hedge fund and passive index fund product sector. 2013 Market ti indicators n d i c a t o rs Maize USD per tonne 280 260 2013 240 2011 220 2012 200 1M 5M 10M 15M 19M Soybeans USD per tonne 550 500 2011 450 Forward curves One persistent feature of the US maize. which had seen customer withdrawals after two years of negative returns [see “Commodity Hedge Funds in Retreat?” in the Special Feature section of this report]. such as aluminum and copper. referred to as “backwardation”. Forward curves snapshots as of 15 May 2011. of which agriculture comprises a very small fraction. the impacts of the much debated US and European Regulatory reform measures appear to have been negligible for agricultural futures trade volumes. However. particularly by China. agricultural volumes proved an exception. The maize situation was exacerbated by the much reduced supply and the continued diversion of the grain into fuel Holding excess storage. 2012 2013 400 1M 4M 8M 12M 16M 20M 24M Wheat USD per tonne 350 2011 300 2013 250 2012 200 1M 4M 8M 12M 16M 125 25 . soft commodities. Contrarily. has left some commodity investors disillusioned. creating a constant shortage of delivery supplies. 2012. the 2012 volumes still did not exceed those of 2010. The net result has been an abnormally backwardated structure with calendar spreads such as Mar/May and May/July reaching historically high inversions. A recent sharp drop in the price of gold. Most components of the commodity sector – industrial metals. Europe and Pacific/Asia in 2012 – falling by about 15 percent. Figure 4.

CME futures prices Figure 2. Implied volatility Percent 65 Percent 65 45 45 25 25 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 Wheat Maize Soybeans Wheat Maize Soybeans 1 126 . markets have performed their proper function by encouraging some demand rationing and an expansion of planted hectares for the 2013/2014 marketing season. Figure 1. CME futures volumes USD per tonne 700 Million tonnes 3 500 2 300 1 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Wheat Maize Soybeans Wheat Maize Soybeans Figure 3. In general. The Soft Red Wheat contract has remained mostly in contango.Food Ou Outlook u t l o o k . Historical volatility (30 days) Figure 4.June 2013 3 and steeply backwardated forward curves. but at levels less upward sloping than previous years as cash and futures convergence has improved.

Handysize/ Supramax rates rebounded in mid-February. from mid-February the market firmed on improved chartering activity and tightening supply of early vessels. particularly from Australia and Indonesia. However. surplus tonnage continued to weigh and in April and the beginning of May rates in the Panamax and Supramax sectors started to retreat amid reduced volumes of trade. underpinned by grain and soyabeans shipments. notably on routes from South America and the US Gulf. dry bulk ocean freight rates in the grain-carrying sectors registered some gains from mid-February on the back of improved demand for commodities. Similarly to the Panamax sector. In the near-term.uk Market ti indicators n d i c a t o rs OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET (OCTOBER 2012 . Overall. notably on routes from the US Gulf and South America. with good returns for spot tonnage in the Atlantic. The Atlantic market eased more recently on surplus tonnage. Overall. since the beginning of October 2012. thus underpinning the Pacific market. mineral shipments from Indonesia to China and India continued to Selected routes (monthly averages) USD/tonne Brazil/EU ARAH Vessel size Origin Destination April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 Handysize Brazil EU (ARAH) 36 39 40 39 34 30 30 28 28 29 28 30 32 US Gulf/EU ARAH Panamax US (Gulf) EU (ARAH) 22 22 20 21 18 17 18 16 18 19 20 23 23 US Gulf/Japan Panamax US (Gulf) Japan 52 52 51 53 48 46 47 44 42 43 44 46 45 US Gulf/S. Piracy continued to be a problem.igc. In the Pacific. However. the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by one-fourth. to the highest level of 2013. partly due to early-May holidays. the average of the three grain-carrying indices registered a net gain of some 38 percent. since last September. while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) added just 11 percent. followed by a fall in December/ January due to limited trading.org. Panamax rates remained volatile in both basins. pushing insurance premiums higher on routes along Africa’s east and west coasts. the market continued to draw support from mineral shipments. the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. to the highest level in ten months. the market is expected to remain rather weak due to an over-capacity of tonnage and insufficient demand. Korea Panamax US (Gulf) South Korea 53 53 52 54 49 47 48 45 43 44 45 47 46 127 27 . In the Pacific.MID-MAY 2013) Over the past seven months. notably on routes from South America and the US Gulf. with a sharp rise in mid-November. with vessels ballasting from the Pacific and Indian Oceans into the Atlantic in search of better rates putting pressure on Atlantic rates. the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) more than doubled by the end of March. following a nearly 20 percent fall in Capesize values due to a weaker demand for raw materials. while the average of indices of three grains-carrying sectors soared by 35 percent. A severe congestion in Brazil’s ports was also supportive. In March. Atlantic demand continued to draw tonnage from South East Asia.OCEAN FREIGHT RATES Contributed by the International Grains Council (IGC) www.

tea and cocoa. The stability of the global import expenditure masks considerable movements across individual product bills. The expected increase in these bills is based on much larger volumes of imports as well as higher world quotations.09 trillion. Of the commodities foreseen to undergo the largest changes. By contrast. such as those in the groups of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Prospects for abundant domestic crops in these countries in 2013. including meat. Over the October/mid-May period. reduced import volumes of rice and wheat could bring cereal bills down by 2 percent. the Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) advanced by 19 percent. Capesize rates fell sharply in December 2012 due to an oversupply of tonnage and a weak demand for minerals. could rise together by as much as 8 percent to around USD 354 billion. However. As for cereals. the terms-of-trade in food and agriculture for commodity-dependent countries may also deteriorate. Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) and those geographically situated in sub-Saharan Africa. Ocean freight indices May 2012 .June 2013 3 provide support. falling prices of beverages are expected to result in a decline of 9 percent in total expenditures on coffee. The market remained weak during the following months. particularly for staples. with the Baltic Capesize Index decreasing by nearly 20 percent since the beginning of October 2012. Freight costs. The tendency for global import bills to be steady in 2013 extends to many of the most economically vulnerable nations.mid-May 2013 1200 1000 Baltic dry index 800 600 Average of grain-carrying indices M J J A S O N D J F M A M 400 2012 2013 FOOD IMPORT BILLS Global food import bills expected to stabilize in 2013 At USD 1. for these products. with much lower international prices for key export primary commodities. but 13 percent below the record of 2011. dairy and fish. also contribute to stability. notwithstanding firm international quotations. world expenditures on imported foodstuffs in 2013 are tentatively forecast to remain close to last year’s level. Forecast changes in global food import bills by type 2013 over 2012 (%) Dairy Vegetable Oils and Animal Fats Meat Vegetables and Fruits Fish Oilseeds Sugar Coarse Grains Wheat Rice -20 -10 0 Percent 10 20 30 1 128 . such as sugar and tropical beverages. with South America remaining one of the major loading areas. In April/early May Atlantic rates slipped amid sluggish demand. respectively. Similarly.Food Ou Outlook u t l o o k . while the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) gained 4 percent. which are not expected to vary significantly from 2012 levels. are expected to limit their need to rely on foreign supplies. products in the animal protein category. especially for dairy products and fish. lower international prices anticipated for sugar and vegetable oils could result in import bills falling by 18 percent and 6 percent.

6 4.9 6.1 36.7 1 091.7 13.9 20.5 36.6 164. Adam.1 2.6 9.0 191. This pattern reflects relatively stable prices of wheat and rice.7 43.0 Vegetable and fruits Cereals Meat Fish Dairy Veg.7 144.8 12.3 41.1 1.0 51.2 55.2 25.fao.5 2013 416.4 10.4 10.8 0.3 32.3 2012 29.6 44.3 3. as cereals carry a much higher weight in total consumption than in trade (50 percent versus 18 percent).5 45.5 29.8 112.9 17.7 0.7 2.5 2.7 76.5 22.8 76.7 190.7 1.2 LDC 2013 28.8 24. the index has registered little movement.3 8. From the end of last year through May 2013.0 45.9 7.4 29.8 2012 193.8 56.9 5.7 145.6 43.3 2013 37.8 0.2 38.7 121.3 18.8 99.1 90.6 29. which also explain the index’s departure from the FAO Food Price Index.5 50.6 1.2 92.0 25.9 2.3 47.Prakash@fao.6 0.7 LIFDC 2013 193. oils and animal fats Oilseeds Sugar FAO PRICE INDICES FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index remain stable1 The FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index tracks changes in the cost of the global food basket as depicted by the latest FAO world food balance sheet (see http:// faostat.0 16.6 73.3 17.9 89.6 3.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 2012 36.9 4.6 2.7 12.6 3.2 92.Market ti indicators n d i c a t o rs Forecast import bills of total food and major foodstuffs (USD billion) World 2012 TOTAL FOOD (of which) Developed 2012 675.4 3.1 77.4 1. in contrast to the volatility of earlier months.9 38.3 85.8 87.org 129 29 .4 1.org/).1 92.5 Developing 2012 416.3 2.3 19.9 2013 1 094.5 5.3 128.8 35.9 51.5 2013 677.5 27.5 2.4 33.3 0. The FAO global food consumption and food price indices (April 2011 to April 2013) 2002-2004=100 250 230 210 190 170 150 2010 2011 2012 2013 FAO global food consumption price index FAO food price index Contact 1 The FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index is published twice a year in Food Outlook.2 0.6 9.0 5.8 163.3 4.8 0.3 46.4 118.4 2.

are calculated based on unrounded figures. Sugar prices continued to soften in May.3 points in May – about the same as in April. which boosted cane harvest. Last month’s increase was mostly associated with a strong rebound in maize prices. skimmed milk powder experienced the sharpest fall (-12. By contrast.2 percent). a fall of 9 points (3. mostly a reaction to tightening export supplies and planting delays in the United States. reaching an all-time high. The small decline in May was the result of falling dairy and sugar prices. combined with weaker import demand. unchanged from April. The FAO Oils/Fats Price Index averaged 199.9 percent) from April and nearly 17 points (7. 3 The FAO Food Price Index averaged 215.8 percent) and whole milk powder (-6. very close to its April value of 215.8 points in May. Supplies of milk products for trade are still constrained by weather related factors affecting milk production in most of the major exporting countries.2 percent).8 percent) above May last year.org/worldfoodsituation All changes referred to in this section.2 points in May 2013.fao. while the average price of cheddar cheese rose slightly. 3 The FAO food price indices are updated on a monthly basis and are available on: http://www. down 2. FAO Food Price Index 2002-2004=100 250 FAO Food Commodity Price Indices 2002-2004=100 350 2011 2010 220 300 Sugar 2013 190 2012 2009 Dairy 250 Oils & Fats 200 Cereals 160 Meat 130 150 J F M A M J J A S O N D M J J A S O N D J F M A M 2012 2013 1 130 . Prices were also up for ovine meat.June 2013 3 The FAO Food Price Index nearly unchanged in May at 215 points2. While palm oil prices gained strength following a drop in global inventories from their recent record-high levels. in absolute or percentage terms.1 points in May. The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 238. At that level. which more than offset an increase in cereals. More generally.8 points but 10 points (5 percent) higher than in May last year. followed by butter (-6. driven by favourable harvesting conditions in Brazil. but largely unchanged for the other meat categories. The index has remained within the narrow band of 177 – 179 points since October 2012. The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 250. up 4 points (1. soy oil values eased further reflecting higher than anticipated export availabilities in 2 Argentina and the encouraging outlook for the United States’ 2013/14 soybean crop. wheat and rice quotations were largely unchanged from the previous month. For the different categories of meat which compose the index. the price slide reflects the prospect of more abundant global supplies.6 points (1 percent) from April.5 percent) from the exceptionally high level recorded in April. the index is nearly 10 percent below the peak reached in February 2011.Food Ou Outlook u t l o o k . The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 179. Amongst the products that make up the index. The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 249.0 points in May.9 points in May. Oils and meat prices remained unchanged. the world’s largest producers and exporter. poultry prices continued to edge higher.

4 219.4 196. Cereals Price Index: This index is compiled using the grains and rice price indices weighted by their average trade share for 2002-2004.0 267.2 283. Prices for the two most recent months may be estimates and subject to revision.0 195.2 86.5 210.3 233.0 259.4 260.9 97.8 156.1 153.6 87. itself average of nine different wheat price quotations.2 206.2 262.8 259. WMP.7 182.5 170.8 67.1 118.8 96.6 257. 6 Sugar Price Index: Index form of the International Sugar Agreement prices with 2002-2004 as base.9 175.7 248. SMP.9 185.8 220.6 250.3 225. Where more than one quotation exists for a given meat type.0 100. and one ovine meat product.5 213. The Rice Price Index consists of three components containing average prices of 16 rice quotations: the components are Indica. The grains Price 4 Index consists of International Grains Council (IGC) wheat price index.0 169.6 211.6 238.1 122.8 204.5 166.9 305.1 122.0 196.8 198.3 296.4 117.FAO food price index Food Price Index1 Meat2 Dairy3 Cereals4 Oils and Fats5 Sugar6 Market ti indicators n d i c a t o rs 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 May June July August September October November December 2013 January February March April May 90.5 179.9 214.5 174. the average is weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002-2004. weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002-2004.9 67.6 176.8 170. Japonica and Aromatic rice varieties and the weights for combining the three components are assumed (fixed) trade shares of the three varieties.2 95.9 194. after expressing the maize price into its index form and converting the base of the IGC index to 2002-2004.5 96.7 206.3 209.3 302.2 215.8 112.9 241. cheese.2 176.0 116.8 100.6 246.0 245.1 201.9 152.5 177.2 177.1 199.4 220.2 95.7 194. 3 Dairy Price Index: Consists of butter.3 227.7 140.7 120.7 199.0 227.4 128.5 103.9 177.6 200.7 294.8 200.3 263.2 252.0 199.4 89.3 221.6 290.8 249.7 166.8 256.2 274.0 212. 5 Oil and Fat Price Index: Consists of an average of 11 different oils (including animal and fish oils) weighted with average export value shares of each oil product for 2002-2004.5 94.0 225.7 226.4 172.4 98.2 177.3 126. they are weighted by assumed fixed trade shares.5 121.3 258.5 188.6 141.8 215.8 85.1 210.6 101.6 215.2 132.6 187.6 143.4 324.0 368. Quotations include two poultry products.0 252.4 93.5 125.0 250.6 112.8 173.2 103.0 224.6 212.7 222.0 212.9 210.5 179. three bovine meat products.5 260.9 237.1 82.0 181.6 175.1 175.7 288.7 158.4 107.2 150.8 179.7 112.2 203.5 89. and one maize export quotation.5 274.3 95.1 1 Food Price Index: Consists of the average of five commodity group price indices mentioned above weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004: in total 55 commodity quotations considered by FAO Commodity Specialists as representing the international prices of the food commodities noted are included in the overall index. casein price quotations.6 97.1 107.6 135.9 244.8 113.1 226.6 179. 2 Meat Price Index: Computed from average prices of four types of meat.1 173.5 205.9 213. three pig meat products. 131 31 .4 200.7 234.

Price-adjusted Major Currencies US Dollar Index: April 2011 to April 2013 For much of the past six months. the US Dollar has again risen against major currencies. USD per tonne 700 USD per barrel 130 January 1980=100 90 600 110 85 500 90 400 70 80 300 2011 2012 2013 50 DAP (U. By April 2013.S. Gulf) Urea (Ukraine) Potash (Canada) Crude Oil (Europe Brent Spot Price) 75 2011 2012 2013 1 Sources: IMF.5 per barrel. the appreciation in real terms stands at almost 11 percent. by 18 percent for potash and by 7 percent for diammonium phosphate (DAP). gaining as much as 5 percent of its value in real terms and dampening commodity prices in world markets. World Bank Price-adjusted major currencies US Dollar index Source: US Federal Reserve 1 132 .June 2013 3 OTHER MARKET INDICATORS Monthly fertilizers and crude oil prices: April 2011 to April 2013 International fertilizer prices generally eased over the past twelve months. When viewed over a 24-month horizon. Continued sluggish world economic growth also weighed on crude oil prices.Food Ou Outlook u t l o o k . the benchmark prices had fallen year-onyear by 29 percent in the case of urea. bringing the quotation of the EU Brent to a 10-month low of USD 103. The upward trend in US Dollar strength is firmly established.

amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring/indicators .AMIS AGRICULTURAL MARKET INFORMATION SYSTEM http://www.

especially with regard to the coverage of cereals. French. Food Outlook maintains a close synergy with another major GIEWS publication. Food Outlook and other GIEWS reports are available on the internet as part of the FAO world wide web (http://www. utilization. Crop Prospects and Food Situation. The next Food Outlook report will be published in November 2013.Italy Telephone: 0039-06-5705-3264 Facsimile: 0039-06-5705-4495 E-mail: Abdolreza.fao.F ood Outlook is published by the Trade and Market Division of FAO under Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS).org or giews1@fao. It is a biannual publication focusing on developments affecting global food and feed markets.fao. stocks and prices on a commodity by commodity basis and includes feature articles on topical issues.Abbassian@fao. Food outlook is available in English. Other relevant studies on markets and global food situation can be found at: http://www.fao. Chinese.org/) at the following URL address: http://www.org/giews/.org . trade. For enquiries or further information contact: Abdolreza Abbassian Trade and Markets Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Via delle Terme di Caracalla 00153 Rome . Each report provides comprehensive assessments and short term forecasts for production.org/worldfoodsituation. This report is based on information available up to late May 2013. The summary section is also available in Arabic. Spanish and Russian.

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