AN ESSAY ON RESERVOIR INDUCED SESMISITY

SUBMITTED TO: WATER RESOURCE ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE (WREMI) THE MAHARAJA SAYAJIRAO UNIVERSITY OF BARODA FOR THE PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE AWARD OF DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF ENGINEERING IN CIVIL - I.W.M. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Man made earthquakes

"In the past, people never thought that human activity could have such a big impact, but it can," said Christian Klose, a geo hazards researcher at Columbias Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

It turns out, actually, that the human production of earthquakes is hardly super villain-worthy. Its downright commonplace: Klose estimates that 25 percent of Britains recorded seismic events were caused by people.

Most of these human-caused quakes are tiny, registering less than four on geologists seismic scales.

But some human actions can trigger much larger quakes along natural fault lines. Thats because humans, with the aid of our massive machines, can sling enough mass around to shift the pattern of stresses in the Earths crust.

1.

Building a Dam: Water is heavier than air, so when the valley behind a dam is filled, the crust underneath the water experiences a massive change in stress load.

For example, the Hoover Dam area experienced hundreds of quakes as Lake Mead filled. University of Alaska seismologist Larry Gedney explained,

Kloses research indicates that about one-third of human-caused earthquakes came from reservoir construction. This science has raised fears that the recent earthquake in China was caused by the filling of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir, although no conclusive evidence has been presented.

2.

Injecting Liquid Into the Ground: In 1961, the Army decided that the best way to dispose of toxic waste from napalm production (among other things) was to drill a 12,000-foot-deep well in the Rocky Mountains and inject the bad stuff down it into the crust of the Earth.

From 1962 to 1966, the Army deposited 165 million gallons of toxic waste into this hole in the Earth. Unfortunately, the injections probably triggered earthquakes in the region, and the Army shut the operation down.

As seismologist Dave Wolny explained, "If you are doing deep well injection, you are altering the stress on the underlying rocks and at some point, the stress will be relieved by generating an earthquake."

3. Mining a Lot of Coal: Coal provides more than half the electricity in the United States and an even greater percentage in China. That means there are a lot of coal mines working overtime to pull the fossilized fuel out of the Earth.

In total, miners pulled 6,195 million metric tons of coal out of the Earth in 2006 alone. And coal mines often have to pump water out along with the coal, sometimes extracting dozens of times as much water as coal.

Add it up and we have a huge change in the mass of a region, and huge mass changes refigure the earthquake stresses of an area, sometimes increasing the chance of an earthquake and other times lowering it.

Kloses work suggests that more than 50 percent of the human-triggered earthquakes recorded came from mining operations.

4. Drilling a Gusher Dry: Three of the largest human-caused quakes occurred near a natural-gas field in Uzbekistan, the Gazli. The combination of liquid extraction and injection changed the tectonic action in the field.

The biggest of the trio registered as a 7.3. According to a major analysis by Russian scientists, "Few will deny that there is a relationship between hydrocarbon recovery and seismic activity, but exactly how strong a relationship exists has yet to be determined."

They caution that in regions where tectonic activity is already high, extracting oil and natural gas could trigger strong quakes.

5.

Create the Worlds Biggest Building:

Back in 2005, a geologist claimed that the worlds then-tallest building, the Taipei 101, which weighs in at more than 700,000 metric tons, was triggering earthquakes in a long-dormant fault in Taiwan.

Klose doubts that the building actually did so, but said that it wasnt outside the realm of possibility for a building to create an earthquake. The weight of the building, however, would have to be much greater than the Taipei 101s, and even much larger than the Burj Dubai, currently still under construction but already the worlds tallest building.

Reservoir-induced Seismicity Making the Earth Move

The Three Gorges Dam has already been linked to environmental problems, if not earthquakes. Until recently, the most powerful earthquake attributed to dam activity happened in western India in 1967. Three years after builders completed the Koyna Dam, a 6.5-magnitude earthquake hit the area, killing 180 people.

The phenomenon of dam-triggered earthquakes is known as reservoirinduced seismicity. It's not well-understood, but basically what happens is this:

When a dam is built and the reservoir filled with water, the amount of pressure exerted on the earth in that area changes dramatically. When the

water level of a reservoir is raised, pressure on the underlying ground increases; when the water level is lowered, the pressure decreases. This fluctuation can stress the delicate balance between tectonic plates beneath the surface, possibly causing them to shift.

Another factor is the water itself. When the water pressure increases, more of it is forced into the ground, filling cracks and crevices. All of this water pressure can expand those cracks and even create new, tiny ones in the rock, causing greater instability below ground.

What's more, as the water sinks deeper, it can act as sort of a lubricant for rock plates that are being held in place by friction alone. The lubrication can cause those plates to slip.

In the case an earthquake, it's difficult to prove beyond a doubt that the culprit was a dam. It's just so hard to know exactly what's going on beneath the surface, with so many factors at work.

One thing we do know, however, is that a dam cannot cause an earthquake all by itself. The risk factors, specifically unstable fault lines, have to be there already. With the right conditions in place, though, a damn can trigger the event earlier than would have happened naturally, and perhaps even increase its magnitude -- which is why it's so dangerous to build a dam over a known fault.

And it's why so many scientists are warning of terrible results of China's Three Gorges Dam, which is built over the Jiuwanxi and the Zigui-Badong fault lines. Some say it's only a matter of time before the dam triggers a major earthquake, possibly like the one in Sichuan Province in 2008

Reservoir Induced Earthquakes

Lake Kariba, Zambia
Behind a 128-meter high dam A few, minor earthquakes prior to dam construction Lake began filling in 1958 and was filled by 1963 2000 local shocks during filling Largest was in September 1963 with a magnitude of 5.8 Since then activity has decreased

Koyna, India
Dam is 103 meters high Previously a low-seismicity area Impounding of water began in 1962 Reports of local quakes increased dramatically Seismographs showed foci concentrated at shallow depths under Shivajisagar Lake

Koyna, India
Magnitude 6.5 earthquake close to the dam on Dec. 10, 1967 Caused significant damage Killed over 200; injured more than 1500 Maximum acceleration of 0.63g Other sizable shocks in 1967 There is a pattern to the shocks suggesting seismicity increases a few months after each rainy season Suggests link between filled reservoir and earthquakes

Nurek Dam, Tadzhikistan, Soviet Union

317 meters high Seismcity increased as soon as filling began, even before

Nurek Dam, Tadzhikistan, Soviet Union

Increased weight of reservoir is insufficient to cause earthquakes Water filling pores, raising pore pressure is a much more likely cause

construction was completed Full load of water was applied to earths crust in 1978 No large earthquakes have shaken this facility Many small earthquakes continue to occur

Lake Nasser, Egypt

Aswan High Dam 111 meters high 3.6 km long Capacity 164 x 106 cubic meters Started filling in 1964 Maximum water level in November 1978 Lake seasonally peaks in October-November Slow decrease to a low in July

Lake Nasser, Egypt

November 14, 1981 ML = 5.6 earthquake Probable focus beneath the lake, 60 km from the dam Intensity VI Preceded by a few recorded foreshocks Followed by thousands of aftershocks No historical or seismic evidence for similar quakes Probably caused by the reservoir Dam will resist any future induced quakes

DEFINATIONS USED IN THE PROJECT:

Abrasive wearing occurs when a hard rough surface plough through a softer material. Adhesive wearing wearing that occurs with junctions shear off part of the adjoining asperity, resulting in transfer of material from one surface to the other. Acoustic Emission a transient stress wave caused by the sudden release of the impulsive strain energy of a material (Lockner, 1993), which travels as spherical wave fronts in the material under stress. Aftershock an earthquake that occurs after a main shock. b-value the slope of the frequency-magnitude scaling relation i.e. log N( M) = a bM. Continuous waveform a stream of ultrasonic waveforms that is recorded in real-time by the continuous data acquisition units, by each channel. It allows a complete AE catalogue to be recorded for processing. Far field observation of seismic waveforms at distances from the source much larger than the dominant wavelengths being generated at the source; i.e., several wavelengths away from the source (ESG, 2002b). Foreshock an earthquake that occurs before a main shock. Fracture formation of new surfaces in material by breaking the material bonds, and present in the form of cracks.

Hit count -- A hit that is recorded when the waveform signal voltage exceeds a pre-defined threshold within a pre-defined time window. Permeability - describes the ability of a medium to transmit fluid and is greatly influenced by the porosity of the medium. Phase shift an observable repositioning between the applied upstream pore pressure and measured downstream pore pressure. Porosity the measure of the pore volume within the rock. It is defined as rock volume V that is not occupied by solid matter. P-wave a primary or compress ional seismic wave generated by elastic energy release in material. S-wave a secondary or shear seismic wave that has a comparatively low velocity rotational vibrations (waves), which propagate through the rock mass. Seismic event instability within a rock mass often caused by rock fracturing or slip on pre-existing features (ESG, 2002b). Simplex method an iterative location method that uses a geometric pattern (Simplex) to minimize errors between the measured and calculated arrival times, and rapidly reduce the search volume. Source location the point or location where crack initiates. Sensor a device (transducer) that converts vibrations of one quantity into those of another e.g. pressure to voltage or vice versa) (ESG, 2002a). Triggered data AE data that is recorded when the waveform signal voltage exceeds a pre-defined threshold within a pre-defined time window.

REVIEW OF VARIOUS RESERCHERS PRESENTED IN DIFFERENT PAPERS ON:

RESERVOIR INDUCED SESMISITY

Pore fluids exists ubiquitously in the Earths subsurface and, in many cases, exhibit a cyclical loading on pre-existing faults due to seasonal and tidal changes. It has been speculated that non-volcanic tremor and low-frequency earthquake swarms are generated by high fluid pressure, which enabled shear slip at plate interface asperities. (Shelly et al., 2007). These types of slow earthquakes exhibit episodic tremors and slips over a wide range of time scales and with slow rupture propagation. (Obara and Hirose; 2006; Obara, 2002; Linde and Sacks, 2002) Studies have indicated that these earthquakes have low frequencies ranging from 0.5 to 5 Hz. (Obara 2002; Rogers and Dragert, 2007). Ariyoshi (et al. 2009) suggest that interaction between asperities may cause the low frequency nature of the earthquakes. In addition, human activities, such as the impoundment and discharge of surface reservoirs, the creation of underground reservoirs and the subsequent extraction of geothermal energy from enhanced geothermal systems and, injections in deep oil and gas wells can generate fluctuating fluid pressures on fault zones and induce seismicity.

(Zhao et al., 1995), (Majer et al., 2007) The study of fluid-induced seismicity provides a good context within which to understand the physics of fundamental processes such as stress rotation high pressure pulse induced aftershocks and the generation of seismic swarms. (Yamashita 1999; Kilburn, 2003; Benson et al., 2008). Although the importance of pore fluids in induced seismicity is well known the precise relationship between pore fluid pressure and the mechanics of faulting in shallow crustal conditions is not fully understood. (Miller, 2004; Richardson and Marone, 2008) The study of RIS provides an exceptionally good opportunity to understand the mechanics of natural earthquakes and the hydraulic properties of the crust. (Bell and Nur, 1978; Talwani and Acree, 1984/85; Roeloffs, 1988 ) Reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) has been reported, due not only to the impoundment of artificial surface reservoirs, but also to the injection of fluids into the ground and seasonal water level changes. (Saar and Manga, 2003; Roeloffs, 1988). Very often, the induced seismicity is associated with the initial impoundment of the reservoir, which changes the effective stress conditions of the fault zone due to the increase in pore pressure. However, in some cases, RIS has been observed several years after the initial impoundment, while others have lasted for several decades after the initial increase in pore pressure (Gupta, 1985; Simpson, 1976). For instance, the RIS at the Koyna reservoir in India has continued since 1960s.Four years after the initial impoundment of the reservoir, a devastating M 6.3 earthquake occurred in 1967. The earthquake caused over 200 deaths and 1,500 injuries. (Gupta, 1992) There have been over 100,000 earthquakes of M 0 reported in Koyna

since 1963, of which over 150 were M 4 and over 17 were M 5. (Rastogi, 2003)

Some research, such as Roeloffs (1988), has suggested that cyclic variation in pore pressure may induce protracted seismicity, while others have attributed the protracted phenomenon to the pore diffusion effect (Talwani and Acree, 1984/85; Simpson et al., 1988; Talwani, 1997; do Nascimento, 2002).

FACTORS CONTROLLING RESERVOIR INDUCED SESMISITY

There are four major factors that control RIS (Talwani, 1997) 1) Reservoir water depth, 2) Geological and tectonic settings of the area, 3) Availability of fractures in the substrata 4) Hydro mechanical properties of the underlying rocks. Among these factors, the first three are useful considerations for future reservoir sites. However, for existing artificial reservoirs with records of continued seismicity controlled for mitigation measures. Stuart-Alexander and Mark (1976) studied the influence of reservoir water depths in RIS. They found that as the water depth increases, the percentage of RIS cases increases rapidly. Baecher and Keeney (1982) also found significant correlation between RIS and reservoir depth, while the correlation of RIS with in situ stress and geology was less significant

Influence of reservoir water loading

The influence of reservoir water loading on induced seismicity can be subdivided into three main effects (Bell and Nur, 1978):

1) Elastic stress increase due to filling of reservoir. 2) The increase in pore fluid pressure in the saturated rocks, influenced by fluid diffusion and the compaction of the water-saturated rock due to the weight of the reservoir. 3) Variation in pore pressure, which varies with mechanical parameters, geology of the substratum, and the frequency and amplitude of pore pressure fluctuation (inferred by Roeloffs, 1988).

Some studies classify RIS as induced or triggered according to the stress conditions (McGarr and Simpson, 1997). Induced seismicity involves a substantial change in crustal stress or pore pressure with respect to its ambient state. This usually relates to the initial reservoir impoundment or substantial water recharge/discharge. If the crust is sufficiently close to a failure state due to natural tectonic processes (and only a small change in stress or pore pressure is required to induce seismicity) this is referred to as triggered seismicity. In other words, the seismicity would have occurred due to the natural tectonic settings and the impoundment of the reservoir caused it to

happen earlier. However, discriminating between the two types of seismicity can be difficult because it is impossible to prove that earthquakes would have occurred without reservoir impoundment (Talwani, 2000). Therefore, in this project triggered and induced seismicity are considered to be the same.

Worldwide distribution of reservoir induced seismicity

Up to 2000, RIS has been reported for 95 artificial reservoir sites These sites can be grouped according to the maximum seismic magnitude (Gupta 2002): 4 sites with M 6, including the Xinfengjiang reservoir in China, the Kariba reservoir in Zambia-Zimbabwe, the Koyna reservoir in India, and the Kremasta reservoir in Greece. 10 sites with M 5 5.9. 28 sites with M 4.0 4.9. 53 sites with M < 4.0. It should be noted that there are more sites of induced seismicity which have not been recognized because of the lack of proper seismic surveillance, particularly in third world countries (Gupta, 1992).

Worldwide distribution of reservoir-induced seismicity, with M 4.0 (Gupta, 1992 & 2005). As the tectonic stress in the Earths crust at some locations is often sufficiently close to a critical stress, a small perturbation in the in situ stress field due to pore pressure variation at critical locations can trigger seismicity. (Talwani and Acree, 1984/85; Shapiro et al., 2006; Roeloffs et al., 1979) Therefore, RIS sites very often coincide with these critical locations. King et al. (1994) calculated the Coulomb stress change due to the main shock of the Landers earthquake, which occurred on the 28th June, 1992. They found that a stress increase of less than 0.05 MPa could trigger earthquakes, which suggests that the stress conditions in the areas must be very close to failure. Similarly, Grasso and Sornette (1998) analyzed induced seismicity cases and reported that both pore pressure change and mass transfer leading to incremental deviatoric stresses of less than 1 MPa were sufficient to trigger seismic events. Furthermore, Shapiro et al. (2006) stated that fluid-induced seismicity can be triggered by pressure perturbations as low as 1 100 kPa at the hypocenters.

EFFECT OF RIS IN CIVIL ENGINEERING PROJECTS AND NECESSISITY TO UNDERSTAND RIS

In some countries, the occurrence of RIS has resulted in the major modification of civil and engineering projects. For instance, the injection of waste fluid into the crust at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal was discontinued due to induced seismicity (Evans, 1966). In addition, the construction of the Auburn Dam in California was terminated in view of the potential hazards (Allen, 1978), and later constructed with a modified design. In other countries, the construction of large artificial water reservoirs ( 100 m high) has thrived for decades. This is driven by the beneficial effects of large reservoirs, such as the generation of hydroelectric power, flood control, irrigation and human consumption, etc. This rapid development of large reservoirs manifests particularly in the developing countries. For instance, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China was completed in 2008 and is the worlds largest artificial reservoir, with a capacity of 39.3 km3 and a water level of 175 m.

There are hundreds of other artificial reservoirs under construction in China as of 2008. Many of these reservoirs are large-scale and are located in seismogenic zones.

Similarly, in other developing countries such as India, the increasing demand for hydroelectric power has sustained the increasing number of large artificial reservoirs. After the May 2008 M 7.9 earthquake in Sichuan, China, there was debate about whether the earthquake was a reservoir-induced (by the nearby Zipingpu reservoir) or natural. After the completion of the initial impoundment of the Zipingpu reservoir in December 2006, the water level was increased by 120 m. A week before the great earthquake, the reservoir water level was rapidly reduced by ~58 m (Wang, 2008), which might have caused stress perturbation. According to case histories, such as the Aswan reservoir in Egypt, RIS has been reported during the reduction of surface water level. Furthermore, the Zipingpu reservoir is located 20 km from the epicentre of the M 7.9 earthquake (Ge et al., 2009; Kerr and Stone, 2009). Whether the M 7.9 earthquake was reservoir-induced remains questionable.

However, in view of the increasing number of large reservoirs, their

potential hazards, and protracted effects, it is essential to understand the mechanism of RIS and perhaps develop some reliable RIS forecast models in order to mitigate or prevent induced earthquakes .

Classification of RIS
There are three main classifications of RIS, all of which are divided into temporal categories. They include: Rapid and delayed seismic responses. Rapid seismicity response follows immediately after the initial loading of the reservoir or after a rapid change in reservoir water level. According to Simpson et al. (1988), rapid response consists primarily of low magnitude, swarm-like activity and is confined to the immediate reservoir area. They also suggest that seismicity classic examples of rapid responses include the Nurek and Kariba reservoirs this type of RIS is caused by changes in elastic stresses or pore pressure change coupled to the elastic stress and that pore pressure diffusion is not a major factor for inducing rapid (Gupta, 2002). Depending on the permeability and the fracture network in the rock, it may take months or years for the pore pressure effect to spread into the crust. When the pore pressure pulse finally reaches a zone of micro cracks, it may force water into the cracks There are three main classifications of RIS, all of which are divided into temporal categories. They include:

I. Rapid and delayed seismic responses

Rapid seismicity response follows immediately after the initial loading of the reservoir or after a rapid change in reservoir water level. (Gupta, 2002). Simpson et al. (1988) associate delayed responses with relatively larger earthquakes and suggest that seismicity might extend significantly beyond the confines of the reservoir. They suggest that diffusion of pore pressure is the mechanism responsible for these spatial and temporal effects of RIS. Depending on the permeability and the fracture network in the rock, it may take months or years for the pore pressure effect to spread into the crust. When the pore pressure pulse finally reaches a zone of microcracks, it may force water into the cracks and reduce the normal stress that holds the strained faults, consequently triggering delayed seismicity (Rastogi, 2003). Classic examples of this category are the Aswan and Koyna reservoirs. The delayed response occurred seventeen years after the initial impoundment at the Aswan reservoir (Simpson et al., 1988; Selim et al., 2002) and four years after the initial impoundment at the Koyna reservoir (Talwani, 2000; Gupta, 2002; Gupta,2005)

II. Initial and protracted seismicity

Initial seismicity is associated with initial reservoir impoundment or a large water level change. This applies to seismicity associated with water level increases above the previous maximum attained. It results from the almost instantaneous effect of loading (or unloading), as well as the delayed effect of pore pressure diffusion (Talwani, 1997). The delay between the start of impoundment and the increase in frequency and magnitude of seismicity varies from months to years and is associated with the reservoir characteristics, local geology, and mechanical conditions. According to this initial seismicity definition, both the rapid and delayed responses by Simpson et al. (1998) are an integral component of initial seismicity. The initial increase in the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes will reduce progressively, indicating the cessation of the coupled poroelastic response to the impoundment (Talwani, 1997). Protracted seismicity occurs after the effect of initial filling has diminished. It is often associated with the frequency and amplitude of water level changes (Roeloffs, 1988), particularly with lower frequencies (longer periods). This seismicity is observed both beneath the deepest part of the reservoir and in the surrounding areas. This seismicity can persist for many years without decrease in frequency and magnitude (Talwani, 1997).

Classic examples of protracted RIS are the Koyna reservoir in India, the Aswan reservoir in Egypt, and the Xinfengjiang reservoir (also known as the Hsinfengkiang reservoir in some references) in China.

III. The third RIS classification is an integration of the previous two classifications.
It is divided into rapid response, delayed response, and continued seismicity by Gupta (2002), in which the term protracted seismicity is replaced by continued seismicity. This is because this research puts more emphasis on the protracted seismic effects of pore pressure oscillations and, to a lesser extent, on the differences between the two initial seismic responses: rapid and delayed.

Seismicity patterns
Earthquakes seldom occur as isolated events, but as part of a sequence. Before large earthquakes occur, local seismicity rates often show a significant increase in number. This seismicity is referred to as foreshocks, while smaller earthquakes that follow main shocks are termed aftershocks. This earthquake sequence has well-defined characteristics. Earlier laboratory experiments by Mogi (1963) found that homogeneous media are characterized by seismicity with no foreshocks, slightly heterogeneous media have a number of foreshocks preceding the main shock, and that extremely heterogeneous media are characterized by a swarm type of earthquake activity. Extremely heterogeneous media are often defined as media with variations in material type as well as materials created by previous deformations (Couples and Lewis, 2007), while slightly heterogeneous material can be interpreted as originally homogeneous material that has undergone deformation and has formed heterogeneous faulting. These three types of foreshockaftershock sequences are also exhibited by natural earthquake sequences (Figure 2.14). Mogi (1963) inferred that the mechanical structure of the media and the nature of the applied stresses could be responsible for these patterns. Since the stresses could be regarded as nearly uniform for tectonic

earthquakes, the pattern of the earthquake sequences would be mostly influenced by the degree of heterogeneity of the media.

Figure Mogis (1963) Figure shows classification of foreshock-aftershock patterns and their relationship to the structures of materials and applied stresses. N is the number of seismic events and t is the time. Type I In the case of homogeneous material and uniformly applied stress, a main shock occurs without any foreshock and is followed by numerous elastic aftershocks. Type II When the material has a rather heterogeneous structure and/or the applied Stress is not uniform, small elastic shocks occur prior to a main shock and many aftershocks occur following the main shock. Type III When the structure of the material is extremely heterogeneous and/or the applied stress has a considerable concentration, a swarm type of activity occurs consisting of a number of elastic shocks with magnitudes increase gradually and then decrease after some time.

Aftershock sequence
There are three empirical scaling relations that describe earthquake aftershock sequences:

1) the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, 2) the modified Omori law for the temporal decay of aftershock rates, and 3) Baths law for the difference in the magnitude of a main shock and its largest aftershock (Shcherbakov et al., 2004).

Gutenberg-Richter scaling
The Gutenberg-Richter scaling is the frequency-magnitude scaling for aftershocks. Under a wide variety of conditions, the number of earthquakes in a specified region and time window with magnitudes greater than M is given by the relation: log N( M) = a BM where N is the number of events with magnitudes greater than M on the Richter scale, and a and b are constants, in which b is the slope of the line measured from the linear descending portion of the graph. This relation is valid for earthquakes both regionally and globally, with bvalues typically between 0.5 and 1.5 (Von Seggern, 1980), while the constant, a, gives the logarithm of the number of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than zero. Studies have shown that aftershocks correspond to the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation with b-values similar to those for main shocks (Kisslinger, 1976). The physical meaning of b-value equals unity is that there are 10 times more events of a smaller magnitude than that of a magnitude which is greater by 1. The change in b-value indicates the change in frequency and magnitude of earthquakes over time. Because precursors often indicate an increase in frequency and magnitude prior to a main shock, the corresponding bvalue is expected to decrease with the growth of larger magnitude events.

These studies show that rock deformation experiments in the laboratory and deformation of the crust exhibit similar mechanisms. In addition, the fluctuations in b-value are consistent with the intermediate and short-term earthquake precursors (Main et al., 1988).

Modified Omori law

The decay of aftershock sequences follows the Omori law. The modified Omori law is defined as (Utsu, 1961): N( t) = w (c+t) p

Where, N(t) is the number of aftershocks in an interval of time t, W is the amplitude, c is the time offset parameter, and p is the exponent that modifies the decay rate, typically found to be very close to 1

Baths law
Baths law states that the differences in magnitude between a main shock and its largest aftershock are approximately constant, typically about 1.2 (Bath, 1965) for large, shallow earthquakes. This relationship is independent of the magnitude of the main shock.

The relationship is given by: M = Mm Ma max Where, Mm is the magnitude of the main shock Ma max is the largest magnitude aftershock.

Foreshock sequence
Jones and Molnar (1979) found that foreshock sequence can be fit with an empirical relation: N = atm Equation Where, t is the time before the origin time of the main shock, N is the frequency of foreshocks, and a and m are constants. Papazachos (1975) and Kagan and Knopoff (1978) found that the exponent m is close to 1. Later, Helmsetter et al. (2003) found that foreshocks obey the inverse Omori law, which states that the rate of earthquakes prior to a main shock increases on average as a power law proportional to 1/(tc-t) p of the time to the main shock occurring at time, tc and p is the exponent that modifies the rate of change of the foreshocks.

Forecasts of Reservoir-induced Seismicity

The foreshocks of an earthquake can only be recognized after the main shock has occurred (Gupta, 1992). Recognition of foreshocks soon after their occurrence is one of the most important issues in earthquake prediction studies. Although many earthquake forecast methods have been proposed in the past (e.g., Scholz, 2002; Mogi, 1985), many of these methods suffer from a lack of reliable data in the run-up to failure, i.e., recording foreshock sequences and how they can be identified as distinct from a regular shock before the event (Helmstetter, 2003). However, the classification of RIS into foreshocks, main shock, and aftershocks is much easier due to their localization within the reservoir region and their correlation with pore pressure changes. As a result, the study of RIS provides an exceptionally good opportunity to understand the mechanics of natural earthquakes (Bell and Nur, 1978; Talwani and Acree, 1984/85; Roeloffs, 1988; Talwani, 1997). The ultimate goal of both field and laboratory studies of RIS is to forecast the acceleration of seismicity and earthquakes ahead of time (Umino, 2002; Lin, 2009). This increase is accompanied by accelerating rates of ground deformation (Jackson et al., 1998), and is clearly related to the propagation of a magma conduit through the volcanic edifice. Similarly, in the case of RIS, prior to a major earthquake, the daily rate of seismicity often indicates a substantial increase due to crack propagation and/or coalescence.

Therefore, the forecast method used in volcano logy may be applicable to the forecasts of RIS.

Conclusions
It is observed that the fluid pressure development in initial impoundment in reservoir has similar effects as that in volcanic eruption, in particular the acceleration of seismicity toward the final failure or peak seismic rate when crack communication and linkage processes become significant In addition, the repeated pressurization of a volcanic edifice is cyclical in nature, while the seasonal water level change in protracted RIS sites are also cyclical in nature. The application of the failure forecast model that has provided reasonable estimates in volcanic eruption forecast may therefore be applicable to the forecasts in RIS. This is because the failure forecast method was developed for short-term forecast close to the final stages prior to volcanic eruption when ground deformation and crack coalescence starts to be significant, and when the acceleration of the seismic rate or seismic energy becomes rapid. Although the short-term field case forecasts showed preliminary success, further investigation is required. The application of this method to longerterm forecasts also requires further justification. It is advisable that detailed seismic monitoring of RIS should be carried out starting from the pre-impoundment stage, so that RIS can be distinguished from the local background seismicity and reliable RIS data can be obtained for accurate failure forecasts.

Recommendations
Thorough investigation of the sites, including the geology and mechanical properties of the region prior to the construction of surface reservoirs is advisable. The selection of seismic zones as locations for reservoirs is crucial; however, if surface reservoirs are inevitably located in seismogenic zones, proper surveillance of the regions seismic activity, as well as the upstream and downstream pore pressure changes, must be carried out in order to observe any trends of seismic growth or pore pressure enhancement within the region that may develop into a main slip. It is recommended that seismic monitoring stations should be set up prior to any man-made pore pressure fluctuations to monitor the background seismic level as well. This information is particularly important for the study of foreshock sequences, which can be used for failure forecasts. Furthermore, the material failure forecast model can be employed for short-term failure estimates and any episodic fault reactivation. Future laboratory studies on fluid-induced seismicity may focus on the relationship between the number of pore pressure cycles and the surface roughness in a controlled environment. These experiments can be done on replicas of naturally-fractured rock. In order to identify the possibility of such a seismogenic permeability range in a laboratory-controlled environment, a series of rock samples that cover a wide range of permeability can be tested to stipulate the range.

Further research on the seismogenic permeability range of up-scaled model can also be done by numerical modelling.