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EL IMPACTO DE CAMISEA EN LA MATRIZ ERGETICA

Carlos Herrera Descalzi
UNMSM Escuela Académica Profesional de Ingeniería Mecánica de Fluidos Lima, 26–07-2003

Proyecto de CAMISEA|
Aguas arriba
• Campos de Gas de Camisea • Planta de separación criogénica en Camisea • Fraccionamiento de condensados en la costa
PERU
BRASIL

ECUADOR

COLOMBIA

TRANSPORTE Y DISTRIBUCIÓN
• • • Gasoducto: Camisea – Puertas de Ciudad en Lima Poliducto - Camisea- Costa Red de Dsitribución de Gas en Lima y Callao
LEYENDA GASODUCTO POLIDUCTO

Camisea
EXPORTACION DE Lima CONDENSADOS
LPG

Acre

FRACCIONAMIENTO DE LIQUIDOS
EXPORTAC. DE GLP

Lago Titicaca
CHILE

BOLIVIA

PLANTA CRIOGENICA

Las serpientes de los Andes

Características del Proyecto
• El Yacimiento tiene un Valor Nominal de... 78.5%
Gas Seco Por 1.0 12760x1012 BTU Gas Seco 12760’ US$

48%

13 TPC
Condensados 12 BTU 3480x10 21.5% Por 4.0 Condensados 13920’ US$

26680’ US$

52%
6

1 Barril = Precio del Gas Natural Seco = 1.0 US$ / 106 BTU 4.5x10 Precio del Condensado = 18 US$ / Barril = 4.0 US$ / 106 BTU BTU

Actuales Regiones y Reservas Gasíferas
COSTA NORTE SELVA CENTRAL
RESERVAS GAS-BCF LGN-MMB PROBADAS 296 14,8 PROBABLES 789 39,4 POSIBLES 1.802 90,1

RESERVAS GAS-BCF LGN-MMB PROBADAS 290 14,3 PROBABLES 80 3,6 POSIBLES 58 4,6

CAMISEA

LIMA

SELVA SUR

RESERVAS GAS-BCF LGN-MMB PROBADAS 8.404 567 PROBABLES 7.373 340 POSIBLES 10.671 466

VISIÓN DE LARGO PLAZO DEL GAS EN EL PERÚ Talara Aguaytía Piura Chiclayo Trujillo Chimbote Lima Huancayo Oroya Centro Neurálgico “Concentrador” Ayacucho Camisea Cuzco Apurimac Ica Marcona Todas las Etapas Arequipa Moquegua Ilo Tacna Puno .

Regalías (37.7 Millones Barriles y 52.24%): aplicado a la producción vendida en Camisea (gas natural y líquidos).5 Millones US$. Impuesto General a las Ventas (18%).  Ingresos del Estado     Desarrollo Industrial  Participación de la Industrial Nacional: Generación de Nuevas industrias y nuevos puestos de Trabajo.8 Millones Barriles y 713 Millones US$. .  Impacto en las Tarifas Eléctricas  Cada año de retraso de Camisea origina un mayor pago de los usuarios eléctricos de 100 Millones US$. El 2000 el déficit fue de 13.Impacto de Camisea  Balanza Comercial   En 1990 el déficit fue de 3. Impuesto a la Renta (30%): Aplicado a las utilidades.

8 Gas 1.8 Electricidad GLP Kerosene Gas Natural .2 T&DAP 1.Impacto de Camisea Precio de los Energéticos 40 35 Lima – Cliente Residencial Enero 2001 34 US$ / 106 BTU 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 19 15 14 IGV DBP 2.0 8.

Impacto de Camisea Precio de los Energéticos 32 28 Lima – Cliente Comercial / Industrial Menor Enero 2001 30 US$ / 106 BTU 24 20 16 12 8 16 14 13 5 IGV DBP 0.8 Electricidad GLP Diesel Kerosene Gas Natural .7 4 0 T&DAP 1.8 Gas 1.7 0.

Impacto de Camisea Precio de los Energéticos Lima – Cliente Transporte Enero 2001 32 28 US$ / 106 BTU 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 20 16 14 7 IGV 1.2 Grifo 2.6 Gas 1.1 DBP 0.1 T&DAP 1.8 Gasolinas GLP Diesel GNC .

Camisea y el medio ambiente Ponderación y equilibrio .

S. Worldwide environmental groups and some members of Congress argue that the massive extraction and pipeline project will destroy the rain forest and the lifestyle of its indigenous people. the Camisea project has encountered fierce opposition. which detractors say the administration plays down. environmental safeguards.. and Halliburton Co. are lining up administration support for nearly $900 million in public financing for a Peruvian natural gas project that will cut through one of the world's most pristine tropical rain forests. and U. Hunt Oil Co. will test the political pull of the Texas companies. . which advocates mining fossil fuels globally. which have longstanding ties to the Bush-Cheney administration and the Republican Party Hunt brought in Halliburton's Kellogg Brown & Root unit to engineer a proposed next phase. The controversy surrounding the project highlights the conflict between Bush's energy policy. a $1 billion plant from which Hunt hopes to export liquid natural gas to the United States by 2006. both closely tied to the Bush White House.02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Damage to Rain Forest Assailed      Two Texas energy companies.

say the project is proceeding despite warnings that it may run afoul of international environmental standards. projects receiving backing from the ExportAssailed Import Bank of the United States and the Inter-American Development Bank must pass rigorous reviews to ensure that they will not threaten rare natural habitats. This month. including parts of a protected nature preserve. Independent reviews commissioned by project developers have also noted numerous problems. But officials reviewing the Camisea loan applications. including fuel spills. and destructive erosion and landslides. who asked not to be identified. 02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Damage to Rain Forest Under federal regulations. The companies have appealed.   . Peru's energy ministry fined the pipeline consortium $1 million for clearing too much land. unauthorized pipeline route diversions. and building unauthorized access roads.

 02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Damage to Rain Forest Assailed "Even a carefully designed and well-managed project -. "If it goes ahead. illegally harvesting trees and importing influenza.will cause    permanent harm. is not -. Royal Dutch Shell prospected for oil in a 5-million-acre area of Peru's Ucayali Basin. so far.mostly inaccessible. slicing through the rain forest to conduct seismic tests.“ The resources of the Lower Urubamba River region. rubber barons raided the area and enslaved its tribal people. Shell tried to placate the opposition. Shell made a new effort in the 1990s.which this. conducted by the Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring and Assessment of Biodiversity Program." . whooping cough and other maladies that killed four out of every 10 people in some indigenous tribes. "unidentified species. funds to the Inter-American Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank." said Leahy. the lead Democrat on the committee that gives U.S. far more needs to be done to mitigate the damage. Scientists noted the jungle's "nearly pristine condition" and its wealth of unique. In the 1980s. except by river. from its famed mahogany trees to exotic plants used in pesticides. and tribal people objected. Yet Camisea today remains as it was then -. aided by environmental groups such as the tiny California-based Amazon Watch and the larger OxFam International. paying $1 million for the region's first biodiversity review. Poachers invaded. In the late 1800s. have long attracted outsiders.

"we would.   02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Damage to Rain Forest Assailed The scientists persuaded Shell not to build roads into the region and to adopt strict   policies against contact with indigenous people. Peru awarded the Camisea extraction concession to a consortium led by Hunt and Pluspetrol. But the government set a 2004 deadline for project completion. and the companies say time pressures have caused them to cut corners. . social.“ In 2000. chief executive of Transportadora de Gas del Peru (TGP). and separately awarded the pipeline contract to another consortium including Hunt. Today. or CEDIA. But. "We have challenges." said Alejandro Segret. the pipeline consortium. "If we'd only known. The consortia pledged to adopt Shell's social and environmental programs. big challenges -environmental. Indigenous leaders were elated." said Lelis Rivera. antitrust disputes with the government forced Shell to pull out of the project. one thousand times over. have preferred Shell. also timing challenges. they feel differently. in 1998. Pluspetrol and five other companies. director of the Center for Development of Amazon Indigenous Peoples.

Last summer. which turns into a mud pit when it rains. Rivera said. Knight Piesold is now calling for construction to stop until erosion problems are fixed. erosion has muddied streams used by inhabitants for drinking and washing. hunting for bushmeat and trade and contamination of headwaters. contends that "the starting point of forest destruction" will be the cleared pipeline paths that will bring "increased deforestation and habitat loss. Forest to monitor environmental compliance. Schoolchildren must trudge through the right-of-way. The World Wildlife Fund. home to 600 people. TGP officials last month said they had hired 600 workers to control erosion that is leading to landslides. said Rivera. There. which ranks Camisea on its list of 200 places deserving conservation. a consulting firm. students blockaded a construction road to protest the lack of clean drinking water. Some environmental groups have called for an immediate construction halt." . The pipeline right-of-way slices by the hamlet of Shimaa. 02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Damage to Rain Assailed TGP hired Knight Piesold. But the consulting firm's latest report says problems continue. the director of CEDIA. Erosion has also affected the indigenous people. Supplies were delivered but remain inconsistent. a report said. The      firm's oversight reports criticized the consortium for failing to control erosion and for violating a 50-foot width limit on the pipeline route.

Environmentalists have also cited the drowning of a 7-year-old Machiguenga girl who was swept up in the wake of two speeding Pluspetrol supply boats on the Urubamba River near Kirigueti. which found that the project would have "irreversible impacts on the biodiversity of this area and on the indigenous groups. pipeline route changes without notice or review." the groups said in a joint statement. . "The project is past the point where it could ever have been brought into compliance with internationally accepted environmental and indigenous-peoples standards. erosion muddying rivers. and at least seven worker deaths. conservation groups aired a list of complaints: workers intruding on isolated tribes.    commissioned an independent analysis." Last month. during a meeting at the Inter-American Development Bank. including many of the IDB's own minimum standards. declining fish and game populations. 02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Damage to Rain Forest Assailed Another environmental coalition. including Friends of the Earth and Amazon Watch.

000. Hunt is also a longtime friend of and contributor to George W." Last month. international analyst for Friends of the Earth. Ray L. to which he and his wife gave $20. representative to the Inter-American Development Bank is Bush appointee Jose Forquet. Hunt Oil's chief executive. The Hunts have donated at least another $460. Bush. Cheney was Halliburton's chief executive.000 to Republican state campaigns. Forquet mobilized Hispanic support for Bush's 2000 campaign and was a Bush "Pioneer.000. Ray Hunt was appointed to Halliburton's board with Cheney's backing and still serves today. in their transition       policies and in Vice President Cheney's secret energy plan. a Treasury official. Until 2000. Hunt. Hunt raised money for Bush's father in 1992 and was tapped by the younger Bush in 2000 to chair the Republican National Committee's Victory Fund. who named him to the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board.S. 02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Jon Sohn. The U. its employees and the spouses of employees have given more than $1 million to GOP causes since 1995. . Hunter Hunt. said the connections are obvious to project Damage to Rain Forest Assailed opponents. and their company. Peru's vice minister of energy. toured Camisea with Toledo. "Hunt and Halliburton were involved in their campaign fundraising. vice president of Hunt Oil and Ray Hunt's son. according to the Center for Responsive Politics." according to Hunt Oil's Web site." an elite donor who raised at least $100. Forquet declined to comment. said Carlos Garaycochea. was Bush's "primary Policy Advisor responsible for energy issues.

02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's Damage to Rain Forest Assailed .

Gas natural y desarrollo .

usar en el país? .Escenarios de valor de sustitución  Valor bajo como sustituto de la hidroenergía  Valor alto como sustituto del petróleo ¿Se podría presentar la disyuntiva de exportar vs.

El sentido de Camisea Energía = capacidad de cambio Materia prima o poder de cambio .

E+04 00.E+00 2092 2077 2022 2042 2047 2032 2052 2067 2002 2007 2012 2017 2027 2037 2057 2062 Años 2072 2087 2082 2097 .E+04 10.E+04 40.TJ 60.E+04 20.E+04 Sector Exportación 30.E+04 Reemplazo anual Sector Residencial Comercial Sector Publico Sector Pesquero Sector Industrial Sector Eléctrico Sector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector Minero Metalúrgico Sector Transporte 50.

E+00 .E+06 5.E+06 15.E+06 10.E+06 20.E+06 Reemplazo anual acumulado Sector Residencial Comercial Sector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector Minero Metalurgico Sector Transporte Sector Exportación Sector Publico Sector Pesquero Sector Industrial Sector Eléctrico 25.E+06 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067 Años 2072 2082 2092 2077 2087 2097 00.TJ 30.

028 2.200 3.100 1.031 2.019 2.037 2.004 2.400 50 0 700 0 2.800 .500 150 100 2.Demanda de Gas Natural Demanda : TWh 300 250 4.022 2.040 2.010 2.049 2.007 2.034 2.025 2.016 2.043 Años Sector Eléctrico Industrial Reservas Remanentes 2.013 2.046 2.052 Reserva : TWh 200 2.

E+04 10.E+04 -20.E+04 TJ 20.E+04 -30.E+04 -40.Capacidad utilizada del gasoducto 30.E+04 2017 Años 2097 00.E+00 .E+04 2057 2002 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2062 2067 2072 2077 2082 2087 2092 2007 2012 -10.

E+06 -20.E+06 Años 2097 .E+00 -5.E+06 5.E+06 00.E+06 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2002 2067 2072 2007 2012 2017 2077 2082 2087 2092 -10.E+06 10.Reservas de gas natural TJ 15.E+06 -15.

Factores de reemplazo 25% FDR(%) anual (mercado interno) FDR(%) anual (mercado total) 20% 15% % 10% 5% 0% 2092 2082 2052 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2057 2062 2067 Años 2072 2077 2087 2097 .

Hidrógeno Hidrógeno Hidrógeno El gas natural Carbón Molécula de Metano CH4 Hidrógeno .

Gas Natural: reservas por región (TPC) 6000 5000 Total 4000 3000 2000 En desarrollo EE/ex-URSS 1000 0 1975 Industrializado 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 .

Gas Natural: reservas por región al 2002 (TPC) Oriente medio EE/exURSS África Asia en desarrollo Norteamérica Centro y Sudamérica Europa Occidental Asia industrializado 0 500 1000 Total mundial: 5451 millones de pies cúbicos 1500 2000 2500 .

1% 75% 50% 36.1% 13.Gas Natural: reservas según región (%) 100% 3.2% 19.1% 4.8% 25% 35.6% 11.9% 7.2% 4.9% 31.0% Otros Centro y sudamérica Asia Africa Norteamérica Oriente medio 9.9% 6.0% Unión Soviética *Reservas remanentes a enero del 2002 ** Reservas aún no descubiertas.6% 7.4% 9. hacia el 2025 0% 5451 Trillones de pies cúbicos * 5196 Trillones de pies cúbicos ** .

Gas Natural: importaciones netas de Estados Unidos (TPC) 6 Histórico 5 Canadá 4 3 Proyecciones 2 1 LNG 0 -1 1970 México 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 .

Gas Natural: consumo en 5 países europeos (TPC) 6 Histórico Proyecciones 5 Alemania 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Holanda Italia Francia Reino Unido 2015 2020 .

1 4.Gas Natural: consumo en Centro y Sudamérica (TPC) 20 Histórico Proyecciones 14.5 3.1 2 0.6 15 11.7 1.1 10 7.2 5 0 1970 1980 1990 1998 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 .2 3.

Gas Natural: participación en el total de energía (Asia y mundo) Japón Australia China India Corea del Sur Resto de Asia Mundo 1980 1999 2020 0 10 20 30 .

Centro y Sudamérica: Gas natural e hidroenergía (QUADs) 20 1999 2010 2020 15 10 5 0 Renovables Gas natural .

Gas Natural: gasoductos en Sudamérica .

12 1.80 .8 56% 2.22 42% 2% 100% 1.59 0.35 0.07 3.Estimación del Precio del GN para un Cliente Industrial Sin IGV Con IGV US$/MBTU Participación US$/MBTU Compra en boca de pozo Transporte y Distribución en AP Tarifa de distribución en BP Total 1.08 3.

1 Gas natural 4.4 Diesel N°2 10.3 Electricidad .4 4 8 P.7 Usuario Gran Industria GLP 15.US$ 10 6 BTU 12 20 16 0 2 Cabón 4. Ind 6 11.

6 39.2 50 40 30 20 10 0 CV Carbón CC Gas Natural TG Gas Natural MD Residual 6 MD Diesel 2 TG Diesel 2 Tecnología .5 18 61.Costos para Generar Electricidad 70 60 US$ 10 6 BTU 54.6 23.5 14.Combustible .

28089 100% 18% 118% .23804 0.06357 0.06226 0.76 3.Sector Transportes Precios del GNC PRECIO AL PUBLICO US$/MBTU US$/m 0.11221 Participación 27% 26% 47% PG Total T&D Estación 1.18 Total IGV Al Público 6.04285 0.21 7.74 1.80 1.95 0.

Sector Transportes Fuentes Disponibles 20 16.4 12.3 16 US$ 10 BTU 18.7 12 7.9 6 8 4 0 GNC* Diesel N°2 GLP Gasolinas .

Transporte del Gas .

Gaseoductos y GNL .

.43 0. la capacidad anual sube en 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilómetros recorridos incrementa en menos de 70%.35 900 mm 1540 mm Si se incrementa el diámetro del tubo en 55%.Economía de escala del ducto Diámetro Capacidad anual 10x109 m3 25x109 m3 Costo ($/mcm) /1000 km 0.

0099 36 pulg 60 pulg 420x109 m³ 875x109 m³ Si se incrementa el diámetro del tubo en 55%. la capacidad anual sube en 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilómetros recorridos incrementa en menos de 70%.Economía de escala del ducto Diámetro Capacidad anual Costo ($/103cuft) /103 km 0.0122 0. .

Estatus de la capacidad mundial de GNL: Existente. Planeado y Potencial hacia 1996 106 Millones de PC Capacidad Expansión En Negociación Nuevos Existente Proyectos en n/ Capacidad Propuesta construcción .

40 0.20 1.20 0.00 1.00 Procesamien to del gas Licuefacción Operación y Project maintenimiento Almacenamientocost to de las y exportación liquefaction instalaciones and export Transporte marítimo Terminal de importación Costos indicativos de cada etapa de una cadena de suministro de GNL (LNG). por 20 años .00 0.60 1.40 Nota: Se excluye el costo fijo del gas US$/Millón BTU 1.80 1. Base: 4.5 millones ton/año de exportación e importación.60 0. con 3200 km de distancia (ida).CADENA DE COSTOS DEL GNL 2.80 0.

Geopolítica “Chile en los últimos 100 años de enclaustramiento al que nos ha sometido no ha dado ninguna seña de considerar la posibilidad de una salida al mar. ¿Cuánta humillación tenemos que sufrir para entender que a Chile no le interesa el desarrollo económico o acceso boliviano al Pacifico?” .

5 .1.1.0 Producción de gas Planta de Licuefacción Transporte de GNL Terminal Receptor y Regasificador Total 1-2 2-3 1-2 0.7 .Inversión e impacto en costos Actividad Inversión (en US$ 109 ) Participación en el costo del GNL entregado (US $/MMBtu) 0.0 3.6 0.1 4-8 1.2.5 .0 .8 .1.5 .6.4 0.4 .

Muchas gracias .