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1. Full name: 3. Date of birth: NGUYEN VAN HONG 27/11/1979 2. Sex: Male 4. Place of birth: Hai Phong Dated: 27/04/2011

5. Admission decision number: 1161/Q-SH 6. Changes in academic process: None 7. Official thesis title:

Using WRF model to test forecasting visibility northerm Airport in Viet Nam 8. Major: 9. Code: 62.44.87 10. Supervisors: Thanh NGO-DUC, Ph.D, Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Hydrology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Hanoi University of Science, Vietnam National University. 11. Summary of the finding of the thesis: Gathering the statement overview of aerodrome visibility forecast over the world and in Vietnam. Hence, it is showned that runway visibility and prevailing aerodrome visibility are important for aviation safty and effect. In this thesis, I have rerearched the theorys and methods to forecast northerm aerodrome authority visibility using WRF model, includes:

A, The theory:
Let us denote by y the estimated parameter, that is the predictand and let x1, x2, .. xp...., detected meteorological elements which are the predictors. In this case we have to construct a function: y = f(x1, x2, .. xp) + (1)

is the error of the method. One can use this function in the following estimated form:

%= f (x % % % y 1 , x 2 ,... x p )


% % % where x1 , x 2 , .. x p are known from NWP. This is the basic concept of the
perfect prognosis method. Suppose that (2) is constructed directly from

% % % x 1 , x 2 , .. x p

% % % y = f x 1 , x 2 , .. x p +


Based on this idea an automatic visibility forecast method can be constructed. 1, FSI method: The FSI stability index, a tool developed by the US Air Weather Service, is applied by some forecasting groups during the winter season (Guerrero and Jans, 1996). Its expression is: FSI = (Tsfc-T850) + (Tsfc-Td,sfc) + w850 (4), where Tsfc, T850 are the surface and 850hPa air temperature, Tdsfc the surface dew point (in C) and w850 the wind (in knots). Forecasting visibility Budapet airport, Hungarian Meteorological Service used this function: Visibility = -1.33 + 0.45FSI 2, RUC method (Rapid update cycle) In the RUC visibility algorithm that was adopted from the RUC model, surface visibility is based on the RH (%), as given by,
RH 15 Vis = 60 exp 2.5 + (km) 80



3, FSL method (forecast system laboratory) The surface visibility algorithm was also developed by National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) (Doran et al., 1999), in which surface visibility is based on the state of the RH and dew point depression (T-Td) (0C) where:
Vis = 6000 T Td RH1.75

1.609 (km)


4, Steolinga and Warner method (SW99) Stoelinga and Warner (1999) Method calculates the visibility using the predicted cloud water (cw), cloud ice (ci), rain (rw), and snow (sn), which can be expressed by:

ln(0.02) vis sw 99 = (km)

Where = cw + rw + ci +sn


cw =144.7C


1.1C0.75 rw =

163.9C ci =
0.78 sn =10.4C

C: (mass concentration): gm-3 : (extinction coefficient): km-1 5, CVIS method This algorithm is a combined approach of the SW99 and FSL methods. This method simultane-ously calculates the two methods, and then selects the lower visibility, and can be written by, VIS (mile)=min (SW99, FSL) 6, RVIS method The RVIS algorithm is a combined method of the two SW99 and FSL algorithms, as expressed by,
vis rvis = [ SW99 + (T2m Td 2m ) / RH1.75 ] 1.609 (km)



where the coefficients, and , are responsible for the intraseasonal variation of visibility. B) Result Running with 4 nest, using FSI and RUC methods to forecast Noi Bai, Catbi, Vinh visibility airport for each 3 times in 2010, 2011 and 2012 in the days which appeared foggy and mist with detail of configurations: 1. Noi Bai airport: The mother nest: 17N - 31N, 95E - 120E; resolotion: 27km The second nest: 17N - 30N, 98E - 112E; resolution: 9km The third nest: 9.5N - 24N, 102E - 110E; resolution: 3km The fourth nest: 20N - 22N, 105E - 108E; resolution: 1km 2. Cat Bi airport The mother nest: 10N - 35N, 90E - 120E; resolotion: 27km The second nest: 11N - 32N, 98E - 115E; resolution: 9km The third nest: 15N - 25N, 100E - 111E; resolution: 3km The fourth nest: 19N - 21.5N, 105.5E - 108E; resolution: 1km

3. Vinh airport: The mother nest: 10N - 32N, 90E - 120E; resolotion: 27km The second nest: 13N - 30N, 98E - 115E; resolution: 9km The third nest: 15N - 22N, 102E - 109.5E; resolution: 3km The fourth nest: 17N - 20N, 104E - 108E; resolution: 1km After running 9 times ( 3 times for each Noi Bai, Cat Bi, Vinh), the results are showned that: + RUC, FSIA, FSIH methods are able to forecast Noi Bai, Cat Bi, Vinh visibility trend well but the values of visibility forecast are greater than observation visibility for 24 hour forecasting. + In Noi Bai and Vinh airport, visibility forecast at fourth nest are the best But CatBi airport visibility forecast at mother nest is not different with the second nest, third nest and the fourth nests visibility forecasting. + RUC method is the best, and then FSIA, FSIH methods. + These methods are not able to apply to forecast visibility in haze and sol. + Using WRF model to forecast aerodrome visibility is new method in Viet Nam, and it is very usefull and quite to be apply to forecast visibility aviation in Viet Nam. New achievement: - Research ability of visibility forecast for Noi Bai, Cat Bi, Vinh using WRF model. - Found the best way to set up and config model to forecast visibility Noi Bai, Cat Bi Vinh. - Success forecasted visibility 3 times for each 3 airport (Noi Bai, Cat Bi, Vinh) in the day which had pour foggy and mist. Important contribution: - Using the numerical model predict to forecast aerodrome visibility is the first time in Viet Nam. After running 9 times, using FSIA, FSIH, RUC methods, the result showned that they are quite to be able to apply to forecast visibility aerodrome in the northerm airport in VietNam. 12. Practical applicability: Applicability forecasting aviation visibility in the northerm airport in Viet Nam.

13. Further research directions: 14. Thesis-related publications: Date: Marth, 2013 Signature:

Nguyen Van Hong: