min

W,U,ß
u
p
T
Q
t
w
p
+[
p
-y
tp
2
+z
1
W
]
2
m
]=1
:
t=1
n
p=1
+z
2
U
]
2
k
]=1
A usei‐centiic mouel of voting intention fiom Social Neuia
vasileios Lampos, Baniel Pieoţiuc‐Pietio & Tievoi Cohn
Computei Science Bepaitment, 0niveisity of Sheffielu, 0K
1.1K useis
2SK woius
42K useis
81K woius
mwoius
u
s
e
i
s
x
11
x
21

x
12
x
22




x
1m
x
2m

x
k1


x
k2

x
|j



x
km
u
p1
u
p2

u
pk
T
w
p1
w
p2


w
pm
bi‐lineai
bias
voting intention %foi
political paity p uuiing
time inteival t
iegulaiisation
paiametei foi
woiu weights

2,1
‐noim
U
]
: ]
th
iow of U
RNSE (%) Nethou Austiia 0K
tiaining set
benchmaik
mean(poll) 1.8S1 1.69
Last poll 1.47 1.72S
w Lineai 1.442 S.u67
w, u Bilineai 1.699 1.S7S
W, U
Bilineai
Nulti‐task
1.4S9 1.478
W = |w
1
…w
p
…w
n
] ∈ R
m×n
U = u
1
…u
p
…u
n
∈ R
k×n
ß ∈ R
n
z
1
, z
2
∈ R
>0
Q
t
∈ R
k×m
y ∈ R
:×n
filteiing out woius & useis
0K
(S paities)
pieuictions

CON
LAB
LIB
CON
LAB
LIB
polls

SPÖ
ÖVP
FPÖ
GRÜ
Austiia
(4 paities)
pieuictions
SPÖ
ÖVP
FPÖ
GRÜ
polls
x
|j
: fiequency of woiu j foi
usei | uuiing time inteival t
paities polls
Bi‐convex iteiative leaining
1. Solve mtn
W,ß

2. Fix W anu solve mtn
U,ß

S. Fix U anu solve mtn
W,ß

4. valiuate . uo to Step 2 : ENB
pieuiction
peifoimance

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