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1NC Shell Obama is leading, but race is very close Reuters, 10/23/12, ―Obama holds narrow lead two weeks ahead of election,‖ http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/23/us-usa-campaign-pollidUSBRE89K0A920121023

President Barack Obama pulled slightly ahead of Republican Mitt Romney in a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll on Tuesday, but the race remained essentially tied with two weeks to go until the November 6 election. Obama led Romney among likely voters by a statistically insignificant margin of 1 percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The four-day online tracking poll includes some responses taken after the two candidates' final televised debate, but the full impact will not register for several days. Obama maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 332 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes. The poll has reflected a tight race since shortly after the two candidates met for their first debate on October 3. But a substantial portion of voters remain up for grabs. Roughly 20 percent of those surveyed say they could switch their votes or have not yet made up their minds. [INSERT LINK HERE]
Independents will blame Obama Resurgent Republic 11 (according to a poll by Resurgent Republic, ―VOTERS BELIEVE AMERICA IS WORSE OFF THAN WHEN OBAMA TOOK
OFFICE‖ 11/8, http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/research/voters-believe-america-is-worse-off-than-when-obama-took-office) Resurgent Republic conducted a survey of 1000 American voters October 30 through November 2, 2011, with full results available here. Following are key highlights pertaining to President Obama‘s perception among Independent voters: If President Obama's reelection campaign is a referendum on the

incumbent, as are almost all reelection campaigns, then he remains in deep trouble a year out from the election, because Independents believe the country is worse off than when he was inaugurated. Cont… Republicans and Independents think Barack Obama and the Democrats control Washington,
while Democrats think Republicans in Congress are in control. In yet another indicator of the low esteem with which Washington is held in the country, each party views the other one as in control. Republicans view Obama and the Democrats as controlling Washington by 67 to 15 percent, while Democrats view Republicans as in control by 55 to 26 percent. Independents split more evenly, but still view Obama/Democrats in control by 39 to 34 percent

And, Swing State Independents hold the key to victory Galston 12 (Walliam A., Ezra Zilkha Chair in the Brookings Institution‘s Governance Studies Program, where he serves as a senior fellow. A former policy advisor
to President Clinton ―Six Months To Go: Where the Presidential Contest Stands as the General Election Begins‖ 5/10/12 http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/05/~/media/Research/Files/Papers/2012/5/10%20obama%20campaign%20galston/Where%20the%20Presidential%20 Contest%20Stands.pdf)KY

Independent voters in the most competitive states may be the quintessential swing group, perhaps holding the key to victory for either Obama or his Republican opponent. Since last fall, their support has shifted toward Obama over his likely Republican opponent Romney, after previously favoring Romney. And it is those independent voters -- particularly women -- who are driving Obama's overall lead in swing states. So while both campaigns will make considerable efforts to make sure their core supporters vote, the other big piece of their strategy would be finding the issues or themes that help win over independents in the states where either candidate has a reasonable chance of
winning..

Obama winning the election is key to prevent Israel strikes on the Iranian nuclear program Hayden 12 (By Tom Hayden 2/19/12 The coming war with Iran Is GOP rhetoric setting the stage for an Israeli attack?
http://www.newsreview.com/sacramento/coming-war-with-iran/content?oid=5104826 - BRW) Standing in the way, according to the article, is President Barack Obama, whom the Israelis suspect ―has abandoned any aggressive strategy that would ensure the prevention of a nuclear Iran and is merely playing a game of words to appease them.‖ The same conclusion has been suggested e lsewhere. So the stage is set

for nuclear brinksmanship in an American presidential-election year. The role of Republican candidates is to ensure that the second condition is met, that of ―tacit support‖ for an Israeli strike, even if forced by political pressure. The balance of forces is lopsided at present, with most Americans worried about Iran and unprepared to resist a sudden outbreak of war, Congress—dominated by supporters of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee—and the media are not prepared to oppose a strike. A short ―successful‖ war—a highly dubious prospect—would be accepted by American public opinion until serious consequences set in afterward. Any public expression of protest against this war is far better than silence, of course. But the greatest

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opportunity for protest may be in the arena of the presidential-election drama now playing out. It is fair and accurate to say both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are collaborating, for political reasons, to push Obama into war during the presidential election, with Rick Santorum on the bench if needed. The New York Times has also now documented, in a front-page story, the millions spent by casino billionaire
Sheldon Adelson and his Israeli wife to save Gingrich‘s presidential campaign. Ade lson was pleased when Gingrich, seemingly out of nowhere, recently condemned the Palestinians as ―an invented people.‖ Adelson owns a newpaper chain in Israel supportive of the Netanyahu government and is a vocal opponent of a negotiated settlement. No one in the mainstream media so far has written the story of Romney‘s past consulting and business partnership

with Israel‘s Prime Minister Netanyahu at Boston Consulting Group, but his campaign rhetoric echoes Netanyahu‘s position, that Obama can‘t be trusted to prevent Iran from getting the bomb. The Romney and Gingrich campaigns create an unrelenting pressure on Obama to support an attack on Iran with little countervailing pressure. But neither the Republicans nor the Israeli hawks are comfortable being charged with using political pressure to start a war. Santorum, whose Republican ranking is third, is equal to Romney and Gingrich in his hawkish
position toward Iran. Santorum has deep support from right-wing Christian groups who believe that war in the Middle East will hasten the Second Coming.

Avoiding war with Iran may be Obama‘s best option in policy and politics, if he can navigate the campaign winds. The question is whether any organized force has his back. Iran Israel war causes extinction Hirsch 5 - Professor @ UC San Diego (Jorge, ―Can a nuclear strike on Iran be averted,‖ November 21st, EMM - BRW)
The Bush administration has put together all the elements it needs to justify the impending military action against Iran. Unlike in the case of Iraq, it will happen without warning, and most of the justifications will be issued after the fact. We will wake up one day to learn that facilities in Iran have

been bombed in a joint U.S.-Israeli attack. It may even take another couple of days for the revelation that some of the U.S. bombs were nuclear. Why a
Nuclear Attack on Iran Is a Bad Idea Now that we have outlined what is very close to happening, let us discuss briefly why everything possible should be done to prevent it. In a worst-case scenario, the attack will cause a violent reaction from Iran. Millions of "human wave" Iranian militias will

storm into Iraq, and just as Saddam stopped them with chemical weapons, the U.S. will stop them with nuclear weapons, resulting potentially in hundreds of thousands of casualties. The Middle East will explode, and popular uprisings in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries with pro-Western governments could be overtaken by radical regimes. Pakistan already has nuclear weapons, and a nuclear conflict could even lead to Russia's and Israel's involvement using nuclear weapons. In a best-case
scenario, the U.S. will destroy all nuclear, chemical, and missile facilities in Iran with conventional and low-yield nuclear weapons in a lightning surprise attack, and Iran will be paralyzed and decide not to retaliate for fear of a vastly more devastating nuclear attack. In the short term, the U.S. will succeed, leaving no Iranian nuclear program, civilian or otherwise. Iran will no longer threaten Israel, a regime change will ensue, and a pro-Western government will emerge. However, even in the best-case scenario, the long-term consequences are dire. The nuclear threshold will have been crossed by a nuclear superpower against a non-nuclear country. Many

more countries will rush to get their own nuclear weapons as a deterrent. With no taboo against the use of nuclear weapons, they will certainly be used again. Nuclear conflicts will occur within the next 10 to 20 years, and will escalate until much of the world is destroyed. Let us remember that the destructive power of existing nuclear arsenals is approximately one million times that of the Hiroshima bomb, enough to erase Earth's population many times over.

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2NC Overview
DA outweighs and turns the casea) probability – only we explain a coherent scenario for extinction – after the US bombs Iran, they will invade Iran. The US will stop them with nuclear weapons, destabilizing the Middle East. Countries like Pakistan will be overtaken, and its nukes will be used, drawing in Russia and Israel. This crosses the nuclear threshold, and nuclear war will escalate until the world is destroyed – that‘s Hirsch. b) Obama will do plan if he wins Levy, 12 (Alon, transportation commentator @ market urbanism and urbanophile, profiled in national review online as transportation expert, 1/25,
http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2012/01/25/on-infrastructure-hopes-for-progress-this-year-look-glum/

Both the correct strategy and the strategy that the administration seems to be pursuing is to wait until 2013. Obama will probably win reelection, and if Gingrich manages to defeat Romney in the primary, then Obama will win by a considerably margin and probably get enough coattails to obtain a friendly Democratic Congress. In that situation, the Tea Party‘s influence will drop to close to zero, and a transportation bill that includes nonzero money to local transit and to HSR becomes an option. At this stage even Romney looks vulnerable, but still less so than Gingrich.
I don‘t think there‘s much hope coming from the current Congress. Obama probably realizes it.

Elections DA 4/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

Elections DA 5/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah ***UNIQUENESS*** .

Gays Could Win Presidential Election for Barack Obama. Obama will win – LGBT support Patrick Range McDonald. health. However.Elections DA 6/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah UQ Wall Obama will win – our polls assume the final debate – he also has an advantage in the key swing states like Florida. Don't Tell" research was based on more than 120." "While LGBT voters clearly tilt toward Democratic candidates. It's not far-rea ching to say that Obama has done more to advance the equality of American gays and lesbians than any other president in the history of the United States. his defence of PBS and Sesame Street against the ravages of Romneyism appeared to be well received. These findings suggest that the highly Democratic vote of the LGBT population could be enough to swing a very close election toward Obama. The Gallup Report also points out that LGBTs aren't all bleeding heart liberals. That huge pro-Obama percentage. 10/19/12. Obama winning – debate win. They found that 71 percent of LGBT Americans who are registered voters back the re-election of President Obama. President Obama. According to the Gallup Report. Voxy. and Ohoi – this could change because 20% of voters could still potentially change their mindb – that‘s Reuters." During his four years in office." The Gallup Report was conducted by Williams Institute Distinguished Scholar Gary J. and notably. the Democrat at least set out the key difference between him and his Republican opponent . Of course. it seems that . the Republicans (who take a comparatively more hawkish line on these issues than Democrats) laid a trap through Romney's challenge to Obama over the lack of security at the US Consulate in Benghazi prior to the September 11 attacks by armed Islamist militants. Their exhaustive Guess ending "Don't Ask. gays' and lesbians' overwhelming support for Obama could help him edge out Republican candidate Mitt Romney.com/informer/2012/10/barack_obama_williams_institute_gays_win_election. While the American election result is far from decided this year. Romney's weakness and Obama's strength is domestic policy. Oct. at least." Thirty-five percent think of themselves as "moderate. ―Chris Ford: Obama win in presidential debate could get him over the line‖. Gates and Gallup Editor-in-chief Frank Newport. Interestingly. though. The Republicans don't appear to have much of a policy on any of those fronts.laweekly.voxy. As many commentators have said (and I agree with them) Obama didn't provide a clear answer and Romney didn't follow it up on attack. President Barack Obama helped push through and signed legislation that ended "Don't Ask. LGBT Americans who express more conservative political preferences share many of the traits common to other Americans with those political views.php) and taking a strong pro-gay marriage stand could help President Barack Obama's reelection effort." the ban that disallowed gays from serving openly in the military. with the presidential race running so tight. it was more of the same national security consensus that they essentially agreed upon. http://www." a press statement from UCLA's Williams Institute declares. "When LGBT voters are added to the electorate. The president also came across well with his defence of Medicare and Medicaid and the need to retain social security payments for older Americans. during this time of economic crisis so that everyone is seen to be paying their fair share.000 interviews of LGBT men and women. In foreign affairs. but the outcome could still change Ford 10/19 (Chris. It seems that more Americans are convinced of the need for more progressive income taxes. may be the extra push the president needs to win the presidential election.that government can better facilitate employment.co.nz/politics/chris-fordobama-win-presidential-debate-could-get-him-over-line/1273/138255) RYS President Obama's win the US presidential debate could just get him over the line. I noticed (through watching CNN's coverage) that the audience worm (surveying undecided voters reaction) wriggled upwards when Obama talked about wealthy millionaire Romney's low tax payments compared to those made by average Americans. 22 percent of LGBTs support Romney. "Obama moves slightly ahead of Romney. that doesn't mean you have to agree with everything he or she says. (Staff Writer at LA Weekly. The simple maxim of political debates is that while you might find your opponent personally likeable. education and training opportunities for Americans. Obama did the business he should have done against Romney two weeks ago. Says Gallup Report http://blogs. came out swinging from the get go." Gates says in a press release. concludes Gates and Newport. Forty-five percent of gay individuals consider themselves as "liberal or very liberal. Why? Apart from one or two flaws. And Obama stated publicly that he supports legalized gay marriage." Twenty percent say they are "conservative or very conservative. the largest such sample ever collected. 25 2012. And. Don't Tell. He was determined not to make the same mistakes he did two weeks ago when it seemed that he was involved in a love in with Romney as against a political debate with him. like a prize fighter. according to the Williams Institute. Virginia. While Obama agreed with Romney on the primacy of the free market (given the more libertarian predispositions of Americans). Obama also backed off defending the anti-gay marriage Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in federal court. of course. "it was clear from the data that the community is not a monolithic political group.

D. indicating a drop of support for Romney among the coveted voting bloc. Obama is leading.06 percent. President Barack Obama gained ground on Republican rival Mitt Romney in the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll on Tuesday for the third straight day.C. a majority of the models correctly predicted the elections of George W. ―It‘s not just ‗Did Mitt Romney say too much?‘‖ Campbell said. a political science professor at the University of Buffalo.‖ According to an average of 13 models created by political science professors across the U. Obama will win. ―Models Predict Obama Will Barely Win 2012 Election‖.S. which show the election to be much closer than the 2004 or 2008 elections. This is the third election year the models have been collected into PS. ―It‘s not just ‗Did Paul Ryan drink too much at the debate?‘ Those kinds of things aren‘t really important. ―Obama Extends Lead over Mitt Romney: poll_n_1970745.html Reuters Poll. I hope that this will be the case. small gaffes and trips do not define an election.infoZine . http://www.huffingtonpost. James E. Obama regained the lead on Sunday and has increased that by one percentage point each day this week.The forecasts. President Barack Obama will win the election by .infozine. Campbell said that despite the attention given to them.‖ Huffington Post. Released hours before the presidential contenders face off for their second debate. http://www. . Bush and Obama. After dropping below Romney in the wake of the Oct. Thirteen different models published in the October issue of Political Science and Politics (PS) give incumbent President Obama the win — but just barely. but race is very close Reuters 10/16/12. The poll showed that Obama has recovered some ground from his slide after a poor showing in his first presidential debate. SHFWire photo by Jory Heckman. 16 at the National Press Club.06 percent lead ahead of Romney.Scripps Howard Foundation Wire . In 2004 and 2008. Washington. leading 46 percent to 43 percent.Elections DA 7/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Obama might have regained some of the edge he lost after the first debate.com/2012/10/16/obama -romney- U. Infozine. 10/18/12. For America's sake and the world's sake. give Obama an average . Campbell and three other professors who created forecasts spoke Oct. the poll showed the number of undecided voters had increased. helped select and edit the models for the October issue of PS. 3 debate.S. . Campbell. but it‘s close – thirteen models prove Wilkins 10/18 (Emily.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/53475/) RYS Fluctuating polls aren‘t the only way to predict an election..

however. When the polling firm issues its next release of the survey. Romney‘s advantage grew further. the Gallup national tracking poll.nytimes. made its debut on Thursday. It uses a larger sample size than most other polls. Because national tracking polls like Gallup are published every day. (You can read my thoughts here on the challenge of reconciling state and national poll data. like the New York Times/CBS News or the Wall Street Journal/NBC News surveys. the RAND Corporation. Of those. along with all other state and national surveys.) Our database contains records from 136 distinct pollsters that have released at least one state or national survey at some point in this election cycle. As of Wednesday. 53 are active enough to have issued at least one survey since Oct. and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.7 percent from 64.000 per week in the Gallup national tracking poll. Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average. with Barack Obama‘s chances of winning the Electoral College increasing incrementally to 65. we reduce the weight assigned to each edition of a tracking poll to avoid counting the same interviews multiple times. In this case. and it has a methodology that includes calls to cellphone voters. It mostly gets a lot of weight by comparison. State polls are also useful for determining the overall trend in the race. One is simply the raw number — who is ahead or behind? The other is the trend it shows in the race — which candidate is gaining or losing ground? Different types of polls are relatively more and relatively less useful for these purposes.) Of the daily tracking polls. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls. This is a high-quality group of polls. the disadvantage is that they are published only occasionally.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/) JS Our regularly scheduled forecast update for Wednesday slipped through the cracks. The FiveThirtyEight forecast was not much changed based on Wednesday‘s polls. The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. a fresh set of interviews from Thursday will replace the ones from Monday in the sample. Ipsos. This explanation will be modestly technical — you may want to skip ahead to the next section if you aren‘t concerned with these details. With so much data to sort through. We‘ll catch up with Thursday‘s polls with the next update. for instance. from Public Policy Polling. Let me walk you through the rules for how the FiveThirtyEight model weighs the Gallup poll relative to all the other information it accounts for. The model accounts for the fact that tracking polls use an overlapping set of interviews. the Gallup national tracking poll constitutes a relatively small part of the polling landscape. Each poll receives a weight in the FiveThirtyEight trend-line calculation based on its sample size and its pollster rating. Tuesday and Wednesday. or the more involved techniques in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. the pollster ratings are also based in part on past accuracy. he was ahead by six points among likely voters. On the other hand.8 percent. the Gallup survey receives the largest weight in the trend-line calculation. it will usually be a counterproductive use of one‘s time to get overly attached to the results of any one particular poll. The trend-line adjustment also looks at other national polls when they are published. and Gallup‘s performance is middling in that department. Mr. A three-day tracking poll might consist of interviews conducted on Monday. measuring the change in the race against a constant baseline. there are quite a few interviews conducted by a tracking poll over the course of a week — about 3. they are useful for the trend part of the calculation. its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race. since the tracking surveys are a mediocre group on the whole.blogs. The Gallup poll is accounted for in the forecast model. the World‖. the advantage is the abundance and diversity of data: there might be 10 or 20 state polls published on a typical day. There are six published on most days. the others are from Rasmussen Reports. In the meantime. to seven points. (A seventh daily tracking poll. for instance. However. http://fivethirtyeight. Investors‘ Business Daily and United Press International. while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tippingpoint states like Ohio.Elections DA 8/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Gallup Poll Their Gallup poll is wrong Silver 10/18 (Nate. Even so. The Role of the Gallup Poll in the FiveThirtyEight Model There are two major pieces of information that we‘re looking to extract from each poll. Thus. I‘m going to focus on one particular survey. when Gallup updated its numbers on Thursday afternoon. ―Gallup vs. But Gallup is not the only national tracking poll. Whether you look at the relatively simple averaging methods used by Web sites like Real Clear Politics. 10/18/12. . 1. The forecast has Mr.

the states generally rise and fall together when there is a shift in the national climate — and if one candidate makes an especially large gain in one state. collectively. On days when a large number of state polls is published but few national ones.Elections DA 9/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah often from 5 or 10 polling firms. The trend-line calculation applies a 50 percent penalty to the weight assigned to state polls because trends in any one state could be an aberration. it must necessarily be counterbalanced by others in which it is below average. the Gallup national tracking poll has accounted for 12 percent of the information that the model uses to calculate the trend line. they will generally be the more useful source for making inferences about the trend in the race. have accounted for 24 percent of the data. However. the state polls account for about 45 percent of the data used to calculate the trend-line adjustment. The other daily tracking polls. . and depends on the overall volume of data. and the occasionally published national polls for 19 percent. 1. The relative amount of weight assigned to each type of poll is fluid rather than fixed. Finally. But on average since Oct.

.Elections DA 10/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Spendng Now Our uniqueness evidence assumes this spending and still concludes that any new spending will cause congressional backlash – that‘s Ford. Press. http://www. Government expenditure unpopular – public wants deficit reduction Drake 11 (Bruce Drake. while 17 percent preferred a budget-cutting approach and 8 percent favored eliminating red ink with the help of tax increases. ―Nearly Two-Thirds of Americans Want Deficit Reduction Plan be a Combination of Budget Cuts & Tax Increases.com/2011/11/18/big-majority-of-americans-want-deficit-reduction-plan-to-be-combination-of-budget-cuts-taxincreases/) NA As Democrats and Republicans on the congressional supercommittee wrangle over to what extent if any tax increases should be part of a deficit reduction plan . staff to Poll Watch Daily.pollwatchdaily. Sixty-two percent said a ―combination of both‖ should be used to tackle the nation‘s debt. a new Pew Research Center poll finds more than six-in-ten Americans believe that tax increases as well as cutting major programs should be part of any proposal. 11/18/11.

But when it comes to measures for reducing the deficit on which they might reach common ground. Government expenditure unpopular with public and congress Kohut 12 (Andrew Kohut. there has never been an issue such as the deficit on which there has been such a consensus among the public about its importance – and such a lack of agreement about acceptable solutions. The deficit has also risen in importance in the public mind when Americans are asked at the beginning of each year what they believe to be the top national priorities for the president and the Congress. When the public was asked in March to volunteer the most important problem facing the nation. In my years of polling. None of their alternative causality evidence talks about independent voters.‖ Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. education. And. they strongly support the Republican ideal of reducing the budget deficit and government spending. president of Pew Research Center. The deficit had earlier slipped as a priority during the last years of the Clinton administration when the budget was in surplus and following the 9/11 attacks when terrorism rose as a priority. extend that the plan costs a lot of money – that‘s _______. Make them read a piece of evidence which says these alterative causalities will affect the way independent voters vote. the budget deficit stands out as one of the fastest growing priorities for Americans. Social Security. ―Debt and Deficit: A Public Opinion Dilemma. .people-press. have registered bigger increases over this period – hardly surprising. however. ranking first and second at 86% and 82% respectively. Only the economy and jobs. 42% said reducing the budget deficit was the single most effective way of strengthening the economy and 64% said they are worried about the national debt – that‘s Galston. Medicare and the budget deficit were at the top of the list then just as they are now. 6/14/12.org/2012/06/14/debt-and-deficit-a-public-opinion-dilemma/) NA The issue of the debt and the deficit – and what to do about it – has paralyzed Washington lawmakers. in 2012.Elections DA 11/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Infrastructure Not Key Extend that although Independents support Obama now. they will get little help in building support for an agreement by turning to public opinion. only unemployment and the economy were cited more often. Today. The Pew Research Center began measuring national priorities in 1997. rising 16 percentage points since 2007 and ranking third with 69% calling it a top priority. http://www. Jobs. given the financial meltdown that began in 2008 and whose impact is still being felt today.

That's a political reality every modern president has understood. Edwards III. they still will hold the Obama administration more responsible for dealing with the economy vs. 2011. "There's such an exaggerated view of what they can do..Elections DA 12/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Bush Blamed for Econ Their evidence is not comparative of the 2012 presidential election candidates.‖ 10/18/11. more. Even if people blame Bush more than Obama for the economy." says Stephen Weatherford." says George C. D. Weatherford says. They can't force firms to hire workers or banks to lend money." Here's a quick survey of how presidents have responded to economic challenges in recent decades. http://thehill." says presidential historian Robert Dallek.npr.C.org/2011/11/16/141762700/can -a-president-reallyfix-a-bad-economy)//KR President Obama's problem is not unusual. The Gallup/USA Today poll found that 64 percent of Americans blame the weak economy more on the federal government . and 87 percent say Washington either deserves "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of the blame . More specifically. Nov 16. "If there's one issue over which a president can lose an election. NPR. according to a new poll. Federal Administration is always blamed – polls prove The Hill 11 (The Hill. but Fault Washington More. if they have the support of Congress — which Obama lacks at this point. President Taft said that "people think the presidents can make the grass grow and the skies turn to blue. Every president gets the blame when times are bad. a presidential scholar at Texas A&M University. Scroll down to see how three key economic indicators changed during each administration. But even when presidents can persuade Congress to go along. It's simply out of their reach. presidents always receive either more credit or blame than they deserve for the way things are going. The president gets the credit or blame for the economy Greenblatt 11 (Alan.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/188105-poll-americans-blame-wall-street-for-economic-woes-but-fault-washington-more) NA While Americans blame Wall Street for the country's economic woes. 78 percent of Americans say that Wall Street deserves "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of blame for the poor economy. Santa Barbara. Nevertheless. they blame Washington. ―Can A President Really Fix A Bad Economy?‖. while 30 percent blame major financial institutions over the federal government. Romney. "Expectations are high for the president — too high and unrealistically high. there are limits to how much they can influence the economy as a whole. a political scientist at the University of California. it's the economy. ―Poll: Americans Blame Wall Street for Economic Woes. Washington News. for instance. http://www. Presidents can influence fiscal policy.

Elections DA 13/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Uniqueness O/Ws Link Our evidence specifically indicates that Obama‘s current lead can be overcome – 20% of voters could still potentially change their mind – that‘s 1NC Reuters Obama is Winning Now but the Plan Triggers a Spending Link Which is Big Enough to Stop Obama Winning. . Make Them Read Specific Evidence About Why Passing Their Aff Would Not Upset Obama‘s Lead in the Elections.

Elections DA 14/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

Elections DA 15/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah ***LINK*** .

as a way to reclaim the presidency.aspx#page1 We will also hear claims that. . If there‘s any policy Republicans ought to be able to support.‖ The Fiscal Times.com/Columns/2012/08/28/ Republicans-We-Wont-Build-That. http://www. despite growing evidence to the contrary. Criticism about the government debt will surely follow. It‘s inherently a supply-side policy. ―Republicans: We Won‘t Build That.thefiscaltimes. an approach that is harmful to our prospects for recovery and to our prospects for future economic growth. But Republicans see a ―we won‘t build that‖ approach to infrastructure spending.Elections DA 16/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Generic Republicans in Congress oppose infrastructure spending. plan not likely to pass Thoma. it‘s infrastructure spending. positive net benefits. and it‘s an investment with large. the fiscal stimulus didn‘t work. macroeconomist and time-series econometrician at the University of Oregon. Mark. and it will be clear that there‘s no room in Republican plans for infrastructure or debt relief programs to speed the recovery. 8/28/12. it helps to promote future economic growth.

Altmire. these gaps were about as wide in 2001. But these percentages subsequently increased – to 53% in 2004 and 2005. Persistent Partisan Differences over Priorities Roughly four-in-ten Democrats (41%) say that dealing with global warming should be a top priority for the president and Congress. The percentage rating crime as a major priority fell nearly 30 points – from 76% to 47%– between 2001 and 2003. We've got national issues we need to deal with. 11 (Pew Research Center." infamous "Bridge to Nowhere. At the same forum. More than half of those with no more than a high school education (58%) and those with family incomes of less than $30. it is the 9th-ranking priority for Democrats. D-Ore. Since January 2007. Pacific Shipper. attitude on infrastructure is like that of the public's. On several occasions during the Clinton administration." Downey said. there has been an across-the-board decline in the percentage viewing crime as a major priority. he is deadly serious when he says he is not going to accept earmarks. poor people and lesseducated people are far more likely to rate crime as a top policy priority than are better educated and more affluent people. well then he's an idiot. compared with 29% of independents and just 10% of Republicans. told a public forum in Washington last week on transportation policy. (5/18) Some of the biggest abuses in the process [in the past] were transportation projects. "McCain's resident fellow at the Urban Land Institute. a senior Its not just the GOP base – fiscal discipline concerns massively outweigh transportation for dem and independent voters Pew. the major candidates have staked out very clear and decidedly different stances on transportation infrastructure investment. It is important." Downey notes the earmark approach "is going to be a very tough diet to get off of. McCain has made criticism of earmarks something of a crusade in his campaign.000 or more. and other countries are doing more than we are. While deficit reduction ranks fifth among Republicans. shortly before Obama took office. four months after the 9/11 attacks. we are going to have a diminutive surface transportation bill. when overall concern over crime was much greater. more Republicans than Democrats said that reducing the deficit – or paying off the national debt — was a top priority. a former DOT secretary under two Republican presidents who also has advised the McCain campaign. The wide partisan gap over the importance of . citing the b) most visible earmarking Natter. said in an interview that if McCain is elected. "You will have two additional issues. In January 2009. so I think you would have the ultimate historic constitutional clash about the earmarking issue. In January 2002. the proportion saying that crime should be a top priority for the president and Congress has fallen by 18 points to 44%. "There is no area where earmarking has been more visible than in highway bills. 56% said that reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority. and says he wants to send more decisions on spending priorities to the states. chief economic adviser to the McCain campaign. That compares with just 27% of college graduates and an identical percentage of those with family incomes of $75. "It should be a much better bill than the last couple. about as many rate the deficit as a top priority as did so in December 1994 (65%)." Rep. rated as a top policy priority during the 1990s. "I believe that a higher share of the taxes collected at the gas pump should go back to the state where those taxes were paid. http://www.. it is crumbling. "If John McCain is elected. declined in importance in the early part of this decade. as was the case in 2001." DeFazio said last month. and has made a comeback in recent years. just 35% said that reducing the budget deficit should be a top policy priority for President Bush and Congress.000 (54%) say that reducing crime should be a top priority." and comments from transportation backers in Congress suggest just how strong the opposition to a McCain plan would be. Columnist @ Bloomberg news. and transportation is the critical tool for doing that. said Mr. By the beginning of Bush‘s second term. We have to get more bang for the buck." the Arizona Republican told the American Automobile Association in an interview with AAA newsletter. D-McCandless. at the end of Bill Clinton‘s second year in office. said at an American Road and Transportation Builders Association conference in September. that it's just a bunch of boondoggle pork barrel bridges to nowhere . 9 "I think that transparency is a good thing. Douglas Holtz-Eakin. "and I've co-sponsored legislation that would allow states to keep almost all of their gas tax revenues for their own transportation projects without interference from Washington. in January 2005. he has said he is against increasing any taxes. members of the party that does not hold the White House view reducing the deficit as a more important priority than do members of the president‘s party." James Burnley." a $223 million earmark in the last highway bill for a project in Alaska that came to symbolize wasteful pork barrel spending." said Robert Dunphy. "Infrastructure needs more investment. "If John McCain wants to say earmarks to build bridges on the I-5 so trucks don't have to detour across the Cascade Mountains are pork. 68% of Republicans and 61% of Democrats see reducing the budget deficit as a top policy priority (this difference is not statistically significant)." He said the Obama camp has "a vision" for the next highway bill. From 2002 to 2008.org/2011/01/20/about-the-surveys/) Reducing the budget deficit. said the spending priorities are critical. second. Currently. Compared with a decade ago. one. a former deputy secretary of transportation in the Clinton administration and an adviser to the Obama campaign. ‗8 (Ari. It shouldn't have so many earmarks in it.Elections DA 17/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 2NC Generic Transportation is unpopulara) key symbolism Pittsburgh Post Gazette. the proportion saying that reducing crime should be a top national priority has fallen dramatically. This pattern was particularly evident duri ng the Bush administration. Ranking Member Transportation Committee." Mortimer Downey. lexis) Perhaps more than any national campaign in recent history. In the new survey. 11/3. That increased to 60% last year and 64% in the new survey. 53% rated the deficit as a top priority. 1/20. However.people-press. Deficit an Out -of-Power Concern? Typically. Notably. substantially more Democrats than Republicans rated reducing the budget deficit as a top priority. Peter DeFazio. Crime Declines as Public Priority With declining crime rates. and 62% in 2006 and 2007." "We've got a problem. or national debt.

The politics surrounding how to pay for infrastructure financing simply remain too hot to handle in an election year . http://www. 100% of our U. Democrats also are far more likely to view reducing health care costs (28point partisan gap). most useful valuation frameworks.pdf) Expected passage of a long-term aviation financing bill next week gives ground transportation advocates cause for hope. 26% of Republicans. Bernstein is widely recognized as Wall Street‘s premier sell-side research firm. Still. In independent surveys of major institutional clients. dealing with the problems of the poor (26 points).fraternalalliance. bridges. and improving the educational system (23 points) as top Improving the nation‘s roads. Our research is sought out by leading investment managers around the world. Democrats are more likely to see this as important (41% top priority vs.more than any other firm on Wall Street. protecting the environment (24 points). In Institutional Investor‘s 2010 annual client survey. most trusted. Funding collapses theoretical support – becomes key election issue regardless of how its paid for Berstein Research.4 cents per gallon federal gasoline tax. Analysts were recognized as among the best in their respective fields -.S. Republicans or independents. . while Republicans won't support a tax increase of any kind to pay for new spending. Those views are generally consistent with a voting public that wants to spend more on transportation infrastructure – but does not want to foot the bill out of their own wallets. major company studies. President Obama has run away from any discussion of increasing the 18. best original research. the le ading survey by which analysts in our industry are evaluated. best detailed financial analysis. and transportation does not rank as a particularly high priority for Democrats. and most willing to challenge management. These differences also are in line with previous policy priority surveys. obesity as well. even if some groups are willing to pay additional taxes. 2/3. but that's likely a red-herring. 12 (Sanford C. and we are annually ranked at the very top of acknowledged arbiters.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Washington-Research-2012-Preview-Transportation-Funding. 30% of independents.Elections DA 18/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah dealing with global warming is not new – it was approximately as large in 2010 and 2009. This is the case for dealing with priorities than are Republicans. Bernstein's research is ranked #1 for overall quality. industry knowledge.

. "Now." Cady was one of several people who raised noise issues at a Thursday. who lives off Northwest Road about three miles north of the end of the main runway. 4-20-2012. ." said Pamela Cady. http://www.com/2012/04/19/2115130/bellingham-airport-neighbors-raise.. I would never have bought (a home) there had I known that all these airplanes were going to be flying overhead.Elections DA 19/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Airports The public hates airport upgrades Stark 4-20 (John. April 19. public information session on the process of updating the airport's master plan. Future construction projects must be included in the master plan if they are to be eligible for Federal Aviation Administration grants. THE BELLINGHAM HERALD. planes are cranking quite low over our homes.Some neighbors of Bellingham International Airport are complaining that the rapid growth in commercial air service is coming at their expense. . ―Bellingham airport neighbors raise noise complaints‖.thenewstribune. "Four years ago I hardly noticed an airplane.html) //AS BELLINGHAM .

An alternative explanation – grants could be used to sway voters in the districts where support for Obama was not sufficiently strong – is less plausible. and that privately run airports may be more willing and able to contribute to solving the congestion problem. Complicated structure of the American political system creates possibilities for strong influence of political factors on the process of allocation of infrastructure investment funds. At the same time. airports are generally viewed favorably by the public. down once we factor in adjacent districts. Department of Economics. district level election results are poor predictors of whether the airport receives the grant. Empirical research on the impact of politics on transport infrastructure investment deals mostly with the European data. or districts with small Obama-McCain vote differential. we extend the literature on public provision of infrastructure. At the same time. tornadoes or corn fields. We of course need to note that the association between the airport infrastructure grants and the Presidential election results does break rewards have been targeted to the specific districts. First. 10 Volodymyr. We take advantage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 (more broadly known as the Stimulus) to examine contribution of political factors to allocation of the $1. This paper contributes to two broad strains of literature. and estimation results are not entirely robust to taking election results from the adjacent districts into consideration. Also. the amounts involved are also higher. Department of Economics. Data analysis suggests the following general conclusions about the supposed impact of political factors on allocation of ARRA airport infrastructure grants. Irvine. Note we have checked for the existence of separate effects for the districts in which Obama won. Airports and airfields are ubiquitous.uci. Throughout the world. welcomed. is far from complete. but do not have an impact on whether the airport receives the grant. The criteria for the airport infrastructure projects to be funded under the ARRA were rather vague 2 . and especially of the role of political factors. Our data analysis showed the association between the airport‘s location in the Congressional District with the larger Obama -McCain vote differential in November 2008 Presidential election. we can suppose th at ARRA grants might have been used to reward districts which showed support to Obama. the US Senate. at least as far as involvement of the federal government is concerned. simple demographic measures. inaugurated on January 20.socsci.socsci. as currently perception of the airports‘ role is being revised.pdf (the october date is correct even though the web address says September) The literature suggests three possible sources of political influence: the White House (President). we do not find strong evidence of impact of the House of Representatives election results or membership in Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. infrastructure) investment. http://www. An increasing number of countries have started viewing airports as the firms rather than the infrastructure objects. Third. other things equal. As for hypotheses related to the impact of the White House. such a result does not necessarily weaken our conclusion. for instance. including allocation of funds to the airports.Elections DA 20/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 2NC Airports Obama gets credit and swings key election districts – general turns don‘t apply because aviation infrastructure is uniquely popular Bilotkach. and did not find any. We also detect rather robust evidence of the impact of Senate on the grant allocation process. however. 10 Volodymyr. The law was set up rather hastily – Barack Obama was elected President in November of 2008. First. and ARRA became law on February 17. or the Congress as a mechanism to reward districts which brought more votes in the latest election. regulators have been reconsidering the role of the airports. and the amount of the ARRA grant received by the airport. We have suggested that such association is consistent with rewarding districts for their contribution to the election outcome. October. it only shows We supplement this data with airport characteristics. unlike. Recall that elsewhere in the literature impact of the White House on allocation of federal funds has been detected by Garrett and Sobel (2003). unlike some other kinds of federally provided infrastructure (e. we make use of information on the airport infrastructure grants. Research in this area has been addressing the issues of both effects of the publicly provided infrastructure on private sector productivity. http://www. we find that airports located in the States carried by a Republican at the latest Senate election show higher likelihood of obtaining the grant. We find that political factors matter. Understanding the role of politics in this area is of no trivial importance. Privatization and deregulation of the airports is also becoming more common.uci. Second. privatization. airports located in States represented by two Democratic Party senators are also more likely to obtain the grants. and congestion. federally funded airport infrastructure projects are both sought after. Additionally. congressional district level results of November 2008 election (both Presidential and House). This study offers the first look at the issue of impact of political factors on the aviation infrastructure investment in the USA. and the determinants of the infrastructure investment. results of the presidential election appear to affect the amounts of grants. study of aviation related infrastructure offers an attractive environment for examining the more general issue of political factors behind the allocation of federal funds.edu/~vbilotka/Draft_September10. members of the corresponding Congress Committees (in particular. For this study. controlling for the State level composition of the Senate. while the latter examines congressional voting on transportation projects. University of California. and include McFadden (1976) and Knight (2004). 2009. The studies examining US evidence are rare. Moreover. as the grants have been appropriated after the election and almost four years before the next Presidential election is scheduled to take place. our understanding of the determinants of public infrastructure investment. University of California. The former study looks at determinants of highway project selection by the California Division of Highways. Given that airports are perceived to bring substantial benefits to the respective communities. We can therefore suspect that the airport infrastructure grants could have been used by the Administration. We hypothesize that the impact of the White House should be the strongest in this particular case – recall that passing the economic stimulus legislation was one of Barack Obama‘s priorities as a candidate. as evidenced by the election results.1 billion worth of the airport grants included into the package. Also. Airport infrastructure investment boosts president in key swing states – perception of mass benefits Bilotkach.g. . Irvine. and the Congressional Committees. Cont… Conclusion about impact of the White House on the grant allocation process stems primarily from the Tobit regression results. The Stimulus provides an excellent case for studying political economy of airport (and more generally. appropriated under the ARRA of 2009.edu/~vbilotka/Draft_September10. prisons). These show positive association between the district level Presidential election results and the amount of funds allocated to the airport. 2009.. and Senate election results. October. The next issue to be addressed – and the one which will require a more thorough investigation of these political factors – is what our results imply for such important public policy issues as airport regulation. This study is one of the first attempts at looking into both issues together.pdf (the october date is correct even though the web address says September) The federal government plays a crucial role in the infrastructure investment in the U nited S tates. of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure) might have used ARRA as an opportunity to bring more money to their districts. and should be beneficial to the politicians capable of securing the funds. It is believed that involvement of the private sector will bring about efficiency gains.

. Bel and Fageda (2009). Garrett and Sobel (2003) find that states which are politically important to the president will have a higher rate of the disaster declaration. Holz-Eakin. Castells and Sole-Olle (2005). Kemmerling and Stephan (2002. and the latter has the most relevance to our paper.. Fridstrom and Elvik (1997). The only studies of political determinants of transport infrastructure investment in the US are McFadden (1976) – an examination of project choices by California Division of Highways. Garrett et al. All the listed papers study infrastructure investment in Europe.g. we find a lot of studies asserting the disproportionate power of the Senate 3 (e. Hoover and Pecorino. finding limited impact of political determinants on the selection process. as it examines (and confirms the existence of) the impact of political factors on airport investment in Spain.. On the US side.Elections DA 21/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah The former literature (e. Studies of the determinants of public infrastructure investment include Cadot et al. asserting that congressmen respond to common pool incentives when voting for transportation projects. 2005) and Congressional Committees (e. Aschauer.g. 2008). the authors also find the election year effects on the amounts of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) disaster payments. (2006). .g. 1989. 1994) is much richer than the latter.. as well as Knight (2004). 2006) in allocation of the federal funds across the jurisdictions.

9/4/12. the leader of the Peoples Temple cult in Guyana. Mark. Church Head Who Ran Business Empire.com/business/bloomberg/article/Sun-Myung-Moon-Church-Head-Who-Ran-Business-3838146.Elections DA 22/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Bering Strait Bering Strait project would be political death for American politicans due to ties to Reverend Moon. he focused on one of his pet projects: a proposal to build a $200 billion tunnel under the Bering Strait to connect North America with Asia. He grew increasingly disillusioned with the U.7 million acres of real estate in Brazil and Paraguay...S. ―Sun Myung Moon. crazy cult leader dude Schoifet. Dead at 92. calling it ―a Hell on Earth‖ that was ―heading for destruction.‖ San Francisco Gate. died after drinking cyanidelaced fruit punch.php#page-3 Concern about Moon‘s organization increased after November 1978. The controversy over Moon‘s practices died down after the 1980s as membership waned and he focused on his business interests outside the U.S. such as a newspaper in Argentina and an estimated 1. He built a compound in Uruguay. . when more than 900 followers of the Reverend Jim Jones.‖ In later years.sfgate. http://www.

10-4-2011. A high profile and costly Washington. and not the other way around. Barry. Yukon. wouldn't be merely to offer sub-zero tourism. however. Congress will move only when the private interests are on board and jobs are quantified.upf. DC. and Ottawa eventually will be necessary. Promoting critical components of a Bering Strait crossing. This time out.uk/2011/08/24/siberia_alaska_tunnel/) Alaskans and residents of the other 49 states and Canada's 10 provinces and three may need some convincing. for an ACRL must be very strong over a sustained period in order to get Congress‘s attention. DC (and from western Canada to Ottawa).theregister. and the farther away from the Pacific Northwest you are. The goal of the railway. lobbying office is not relevant or needed at this stage. will have to be a private sector-led effort.from Alaska to Washington. But seeing as how the Russian Bear has used – and likely will use again – its trade powers to press its influence on countries to its west. the Kremlin appears to be serious – although territories . Senior Fellow for Public Policy. http://www. a sustained lobbying effort in Washington. http://www. after all. in both the private and public sectors. The plan would be unpopular with the public and Congress—they don‘t trust Russia THE REGISTER 2011 (―Kremlin Green lights Alaska-Siberia Tunnel. 11 [Mark. Canadian and US leaders might not be keen on developing a dependency on its neighbor across the Bering Strait. Regional support. Universal Peace Federation.‖ Aug 24. such as an Alaska Canada Rail Link. This support will only happen from the ground up -.co. which in the long run will be much more effective. Summit Council for World Peace. and Alberta. DC.Elections DA 23/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 2NC Bering Strait Bering Strait Tunnel would cost lots of capital.org/programs/bering-strait-project/4017-mp-barry-advancing-the-bering-strait-tunnel-project-in-the-united-states-and-canada] For international and strategic reasons. An ACRL will have to first garner widespread support from Alaska. but to open up trade routes through which Siberia's immense cache of raw materials could flow to the US. but at present any effort in either capital would probably not make much difference. the less awareness and interest there is in this railroad.

in particular. Natural Resources and Environment @ GAO ―Federal Actions Will Greatly Affect the Viability of Carbon Capture and Storage As a Key Mitigation Option. and found that that less than 4 percent of the respondents were familiar with the terms carbon dioxide capture and storage or carbon storage. In another 2005 study. to include much larger CO2 sequestration projects located in more populated areas.gao. several notable studies explain that this lack of publicly-expressed concern may reflect more a lack of knowledge about CCS rather than confidence that the process is safe. However. Some of the stakeholders we interviewed explained that public opposition could indeed grow when CCS extends beyond the relatively small projects used to enhance oil and gas recovery. One noted.‖ GAO. there has been little public opposition to the CO2 injections that have taken place in states such as Texas to enhance oil recovery.pdf Thus far at least.gov/new.200 people. . http://www. that a lack of education about CCS‘s safety could potentially create confusion and fear when commercial-scale CCS is implemented.Elections DA 24/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC CCS Public opposes Stephenson 8 . that there is insufficient public knowledge of climate change issues and of the various mitigation options and their potential impact. representing a general population sample of the United States. researchers surveyed 1.item s/d081080. 56 This is suggested in the IPCC‘s 2005 report on CCS which stated.Director. for example.

or transport resource to be managed. the likelihood of public opposition to pipeline transport is high .‖ http://www. ―A Policy. 2010. pollutant.Elections DA 25/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 2NC CCS Plan faces public opposition Amann 10 Scholarly Group of Environmental and Energy Experts (Rachel Amann. there also are political issues associated with the development of the CO2 infrastructure. Legal.sseb. H In addition to the purity issue and the EPA actions on CO2. December 31. .org/downloads/pipeline. and Regulatory Evaluation of the Feasibility of a National Pipeline Infrastructure for the Transport and Storage of Carbon Dioxide: Interstate Oil and Gas Com pact Commission. just as with other resource infrastructure. Whether CO2 is treated as a commodity.pdf)//DR.

‖ New York Times. http://www. ―Panama Canal‘s Growth Prompts US Ports to Expand. ―I can‘t see the federal government picking winners and losers‖ in such a politically charged environment.‖ he said. but ―they could provide a little more guidance — where right now they are providing none.nytimes. a transportation expert at the Brookings Institution.semityn. the problem of whether the ports are overbuilding for a Panama payoff is one of planning.www To Robert Puentes.com/2012/08/21/us/us-ports-seekto-lure-big-ships-after-panama-canal-expands.‖ . John.Elections DA 26/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Dredging Port dredging projects are in political limbo. unpopular Schwartz. 8/21/12.html?pagewanted=all&_moc. ―We are the only industrialized country on the planet that doesn‘t have a comprehensive freight policy. he said. As for port development.

accessed at http://timesfreepress. But despite the government's defraying the cost of the cars. 2012. The state of Tennessee unwisely offers a $2. the public simply doesn't want them. March 19th. accessed on 7/19/12) The free market has provided a symbol of how unpopular electric cars are despite subsidies the government showers on them to promote their development and purchase.com/news/2012/mar/19/time-to-end-failed-subsidies/.Elections DA 27/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC EV Electric Cars Unpopular-Free Market proves TimesFreePress.500 tax credits to people who buy certain electric-powered vehicles. .500 credit as well. (―GM‘s Suspension Of Chevrolet Volt Production a rebuke of federal subsidies.com 12-Chatanooga Times Free Press. Washington uses your tax dollars to give $7.

who don‘t understand why they should be paying for rail in Dallas and would like to see the federal gas tax eliminated. particularly the ones who live in rural areas.usc. so there‘s not many leaders [who will put it] on their agenda. California would be endeavors. University of Southern California News.‖ More permanent solutions include raising the federal gas tax. the conversation is much better now than it was a decade ago.‖ Schweitzer said. . 7/19/12. fares. As a donor state that contributes more gas tax to the feds than it gets back.‖ There are a lot of people. tolls and ticket sales rather than taxes. ―In my opinion. focusing on user fees.4 cents per gallon into a state tax. creating a national infrastructure bank that would leverage private investment to fund public-work The first two options do not go over well with voters. ―We can‘t keep passing these extensions.edu/#!/article/33401/transit-policy-is-pivotal-on-road-to-the-white-house/) ―The problem with that is that next year the highway trust fund is going to be officially bankrupt.Elections DA 28/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Gas Tax The highway trust fund does not have public support – rural areas hate it Kredell 12 – Writer for USC News (Matthew. and reducing the federal transit role or eliminating it all together and make it a local issue. ―It‘s there but it‘s just highly unpopular among voters. http://news. Transit Policy Is Pivotal on Road to the White House. better off by turning that 18.‖ Rhoads said of spreading user fees.

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Valley High School Rishi Shah

2NC Gas Tax
Public hates it – obsessive penny-pinching. Kimberlin, 12 (Joanne, ―Tolls turmoil raises questions about Va. gas tax‖, The Virginian-Pilot, the FHA, March 18, 2012,
(http://hamptonroads.com/2012/03/tolls-turmoil-raises-questions-about-va-gas-tax)//AS‘

Tax hikes are rarely popular, but the gasoline tax is particularly untouchable , especially when pump prices are climbing on their own. Elections can flip at the cost of a fill-up, an expense that's not only unavoidable, but impossible to ignore. Giant signs flash the going rate outside every gas station. It all makes us hyper-aware, said Carl Davis, a senior analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. "If bananas go up a penny or two, people don't notice," Davis said, "but they'll drive around - sometimes obsessively - trying to save that much on gas." The mindset is reflected across the country. The average state hasn't raised its gas tax in over a decade, and 14 have gone twice that long, leaving a wake of busted road budgets,
rusting bridges, crippling congestion and an ever-increasing reliance on tolls to foot the bills.

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Valley High School Rishi Shah

1NC Highways
Highway/Surface Transportation Funding Uniquely unpopular – public has lost all confidence A.G.C. ‗11 (―THE CASE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE & REFORM: Why and How the Federal Government Should Continue to Fund Vital Infrastructure in the
New Age of Public Austerity‖ – THE ASSOCIATED GENERAL CONTRACTORS OF AMERICA – AGC‘s Case for Infrastructure & Reform in based in large part on comments from leaders, including those who participated in a March 2, 2011 panel discussion hosted by the association and The Weekly Standard, including Reason Foundation‘s Robert Poole, Virginia Secretary of Transportation Sean Connaughton, Oklahoma Congressman James Lankford and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce‘s Bruce Josten. May 19th – http://www.agc.org/galleries/news/Case-for-Infrastructure-Reform.pdf)

Just because our federal infrastructure investments have delivered tremendous national benefits, that doesn‘t mean many current
federal infrastructure programs aren‘t in need of a change. On the contrary, there is little doubt that our current federal approach to investing in infrastructure is flawed. Indeed, many of those flaws

undermine and devalue federal infrastructure investments, helping reinforce public skepticism in the government‘s ability to efficiently and effectively meet basic needs. Nowhere are those flaws more glaringly apparent than with our current approach to surface transportation funding. The once-focused federal program that was the envy of the world for building the Interstate Highway System has fallen out of favor with the public and many policy analysts. Yet since
the completion of the original Interstate Highway System, there has been no clear role or

Elections DA 31/150

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1NC HSR
HSR Unpopular Reason 11 (―Poll Finds Support for Toll Roads,Public-Private Partnerships‖, Reason Foundation, December 20, 2011, http://reason.org/news/printer/poll-findssupport-for-toll-roads-p)//AS‘

In terms of transportation spending priorities, 62 percent want to prioritize funding for road and highway projects, while 30 percent want to prioritize funding for mass transit projects. As the debate over high-speed rail continues in California and elsewhere, a solid majority of Americans, 55 percent, say the private sector should build high-speed train systems where it thinks riders will pay to use rail. Just 35 percent of Americans believe federal and state governments should build high-speed rail systems where they think
the trains are needed.

and the Bay Area. as a new poll conducted by USC-Dornsife and the Los Angeles Times found that 55 percent of California voters want the $9-billion bond issue — which was approved in 2008 to fund early stages of the rail system — back on the ballot.4 billion. the rail system still relies heavily on shaky federal funding and speculative private-sector investments. "We think a preliminary injunction against construction will occur because there were so many violations in the authority's environmental impact report. This suit has been added to a growing list of other filings. The New American reported on the revised proposal: The newly minted plan expedites completion of the first true U. "We've seen numbers in the $30 billion. agriculture groups and freight rail lines have warned that the routes would compromise their interests. Since voters approved the $9-billion borrowing scheme. allowing people to live in small towns and work in big cities or vice versa. The Times explained that revenue projections and overall use of the high-speed rail are also in question: The poll found that most voters don't expect to use it. Due to severe budget constraints. Joe Simitian (D-Palo Alto) said at the time. which will severely hamper the very intent — that is. executive director of the Madera County Farm Bureau.thenewamerican. ―They want the chance to vote again — and they want to vote no. and more agricultural interests are threatening suits as well. The estimated cost has nearly doubled. the . the $90 billion range. In a previous article. voters in the state are turning on the project." Schnur noted. the total became $98 billion. still $23. 33% of respondents said they would prefer a bullet train over an airplane or car on state‘s economic condition has become bleaker. as 47 percent now reject the bond issue. the poll added. Zero percent said they would use it more than once a week. despite the purported cost savings. and many initial promises about the rail line have been altogether abandoned. Jerry Brown has threatened severe cuts in education spending — among other public programs — due to the state‘s expanding budget gap. ―California Voters Turn on High-Speed Rail Project‖. the updated plan narrowed the scope of the project while speeding up construction to save money. Furthermore. speedy and efficient transportation — of the project.A. Last Friday. have become skeptical. and now we're back in the $60 billion range. "But they also seem to be wary as to whether state government can run a big speed rail system effectively. requesting a preliminary injunction to halt rail construction." Sen. California‘s landmark high-speed rail project has become increasingly unpopular among voters. and homeowners have also voiced their concerns over the project. The new proposal has reduced that number to $68. The New American. http://www. moving it to 2028. as the project‘s enormous price tag continues to inflate and as the state‘s budgetary woes grow more severe. In 2008. they were told the overall cost of the project would be $45 billion — and four years later." stated Anja Raudabaugh. While labor unions have been staunch supporters of the project.‖ said Dan Schnur. and it is now scheduled to share track with freight trains and slower commuter trains in certain areas. schools. which will purportedly make rail service more efficient and potentially bring in more customers. Even Democrats. when residents first voted to authorize the bonds. high-speed rail system. However. Moreover. supporters of the state‘s high-speed rail project pitched a revised proposal in April to lawmakers and the general public. Public opinion surveys cannot predict the revenues and ridership a rail service might generate. Sixty-nine percent said they would never or hardly ever ride it. ―California voters have clearly reconsidered their support for high-speed rail. and then there's the question of where is the money going to come from?" Due to such uncertainty. On the other hand. about $1 billion in voter-approved bonds will be available to revamp existing tracks. 6/7/12. And a startling 59 percent affirmed that they now would vote against it. "I think there is understandably both some confusion and skepticism about what is the system going to cost. "The growing budget deficit is making Californians hesitant about spending so much money on a project like this one when they're seeing cuts to public education and law enforcement." trips between L. trimming the project timeline by five years and shaving $30 billion off the original budget drafted last year by the California High-Speed Rail Authority. a sizable 56 percent of union households now oppose the funding plan. farm groups filed an environmental lawsuit in Sacramento County Superior Court. The poll results raise questions about whether the system would serve as a robust commuter network. who directed the USC Dornsife/Times Poll. businesses. The growing budget deficit is making Californians hesitant about spending so much money on a project like this one when they‘re seeing cuts to public education and law enforcement.Elections DA 32/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 2NC HSR HSR is unpopular because of budgetary reasons Koenig 6/7 (Brian. $40 billion. Without a concrete plan for funding.com/usnews/politics/item/11646-california-voters-turn-on-high-speed-rail-project) RS After enduring a series of financial and logistical hiccups.4 billion more than the original total.S. the project‘s most prominent supporters.‖ The public has become even more skeptical of the high-speed rail line as Gov.

escalating highway congestion and a push for greener transport. 5/22/12. much less a quiet transportation mode still trying to prove its worth. ―Federal marine highways project hard to launch‖. ―It‟s a lightning rod. These river and coastal corridors.com/news/stories/0512/76633.html | AK) Mention America‘s highways and notice the nods. a maritime adviser who specializes in marine highways.politico. known as marine highways or short-sea shipping. the industry would need enough ships to carry the goods. ―The markets aren‘t there. But marine highways remain more a political talking point than an industry reality. Trucks and railroads maintain the upper hand on speed. Container ships don‘t pop up on the drive to work.). ―When financing a vessel.‖ Rep.‖ he said. He has sponsored a bipartisan bill to gut the tax. But shippers have to pay an additional tax if goods are off-loaded in one location and shipped to a second port. Like similar bills in previous sessions. Without greater demand. Rail toots by towns. ―There‘s not a retail connection to the maritime industry. A Department of Transportation initiative intended to promote the country‘s water routes has failed to make substantial inroads despite a 2007 federal law. Politico. thrive in Europe and exist in a handful of U. The agency backs the Marine Highways Cooperative. When freight moves by land. ―This system encourages people not to use the water.‖ Waterways are a bit of a public relations nightmare. a public-private partnership dedicated to developing the country‘s 25.‖ Maritime groups point to the elimination of a so-called double tax as the place to start. public recognition and state support. but you can‘t have that until shippers commit. American Feeder Lines just ended its nine-month container ship service along the Northeast largely because of a shortage of suitable vessels. a company that started with marine transport and now manages a variety of trade operations. UPS stops at the front door.Elections DA 33/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Marine Highways Marine Waterways political nightmare – tanks capital Meyers. ports.‖ said Paul Bea. a former DOT maritime administrator who created the department‘s America‘s Marine Highway Program. They‘re billed as the future — a cheaper and more fuel-efficient option for an overburdened transportation system. in order to relieve c ongestion on our roadways. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.‖ said C. told POLITICO. it hasn‘t gotten far.‖ Several lawmakers have keyed on the issue. Back to the Catch-22. Transportation funding disappeared for paved roads. ―It levels the playing field and achieves some balance in the movement of goods.‖ he sai d. ―This administration has yet to request any funding goals for a marine transportation system. All cargo that comes into the country is subject to a harbor maintenance tax.‖ said Chris Coakley. a Ways and Means Committee member.‖ Rep. make our transportation system greener and develop the vast unused capacity on our waterways. Trucks already pay higher user fees and railroads are mostly self-financed. A longtime law known as the Jones Act allows only American built and manned ships to operate between U. .S. And companies remain leery of an uncertain market filled with tax hurdles and ship shortages. http://www. ―The Obama administration is committed to inv esting in innovative marine transportation services along America‘s coast and waterways. (R-Ohio). regions. it‘s great to have an established market to point to. the water road concept won‘t float. the vice president of governmental affairs for Saltchuk Resources.‖ To do that. now Virginia‘s secretary of transportation. Even if the bill were to pass. ranking member of the House Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee.‖ Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood has designated 18 marine highway corridors in recent years and directed more than $110 million toward marine highway projects. told POLITICO. 12 – staff writer for Politico (Jessica Meyers. Patrick Tiberi. Talk about its marine highways and watch the blank stares. Waterways have less experience carrying container goods than bulk cargo. The tax issue also delves into transport equality.‖ said DOT spokesman Justin Nisly. ―Putting this forward would be an indication of how serious the government is to help the industry into existence. The problem: American companies don‘t want to build container vessels for an invisible buyer.000 miles of water routes.S. ―The bottom line. told POLITICO that the federal DOT‘s marine highway push languished partly because it coincided with the economic downturn.‖ said Sean Connaughton. it doesn‘t face this second tax. the president of the Maritime Institute for Research and Industrial Development. the industry needs an almost mythical nexus of federal incentives. James Patti. ―Shippers won‘t commit until there‘s reliable service. ―is freight doesn‘t vote. Connaughton. ―It‘s a chicken-and-egg type of thing. We still have a ways to go. Not all Democratic lawmakers agree. ―I personally don‘t think it has happened as well as it should.

2011.com/articles/way-we-drive-now_552546. March 7th. . which mass transit rarely is. etc. They can stop as frequently as they wish for any reason (do errands.Elections DA 34/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Mass Transit The Public Opposes Mass Transit Barnes 11. (―The way we drive Now‖. They can go from place to place directly. They can do so day and night.html. drop off kids.).Fred Barnes is an executive editor of The Weekly Standard . choosing their own route and schedule. accessed at http://www. accessed on 7/19/12) The simple fact is most people prefer to travel by car because it‘s convenient. This phenomenon has a name: freedom.weeklystandard.

we already have a national infrastructure bank . we have seen how effective federal offerings of tow-cost financing can be in accelerating the delivery of qualified projects . Costs the U. In this way. In the 12 years that the U.Elections DA 35/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC NIB NIB unpopular. goods movement and economic growth. I couldn't agree more because. thank you for inviting me to testify today. 11 --.chair of the Infrastructure Practice Group at the law firm. TIFIA helps build major projects of regional and national significance at a relative bargain price to the federal government. the USDOT helps project sponsors. Historically. Congressional Documents and Publications. apportionment-based funding paradigm and toward a credit assistance and incentives-based model that leverages fewer federal dollars to maximize local. Compelled by these very real fiscal constraints. federal resources for transportation infrastructure fall far short of need and the expectation that the federal government would or could fix the nation's aging surface transportation system with a direct infusion of federal dollars is fading. Currently. implement new technologies and attract private and non-Federal investment.S. the TIFIA program has been providing federal credit assistance to large-scale highway. Treasury incurs to provide TIFIA credit assistance typically amount to about 10% of the face value of the credit provided. state and private contributions to finance large transportation projects of regional and national significance. My testimony today reflects my experience on the ground advising public agencies and my two years of work on the Commission. Geoffrey. In terms more proportional to the scale of project eligible for TIFIA assistance. as a Commissioner on the 'National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission (the "Financing Commission"). every $1 of TIFIA credit subsidy creates $10 in the face amount of a loan. helps finance a $30 project. Today. With this unique level of leverage. Authorized by the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act. I chair the Infrastructure Practice Group at the law firm. The Evolution Is Already Underway. loan guarantees and letters of credit. Therefore. The concept.we already have TIFIA Yarema."National Infrastructure Bank: More Bureaucracy and More Red Tape" Factiva. the applicant needing to demonstrate the creditworthy means of repaying the TIFIA loan and funding the remaining two-thirds of eligible project costs from private investment. As the Subcommittee is well aware. TIFIA credit assistance is available to finance only 33% of the eligible costs of a project. I was also privileged to serve.it's called TIF1A. SAFETEA-LU. transit operators. Department of Transportation (the "USDOT") has been administering the TIFIA program. the federal government has been moving away from the traditional. as the President has explained it. Nossaman LLP. A. We advise state and regional transportation agencies around the country in the innovative procurement. Nossaman LLP (10/12/2011. This shift in thinking about the federal government's role in financing transportation infrastructure is evidenced by one of the key components of President Obama's proposed Jobs Act: the much-buzzed about national infrastructure bank. the function of the federal government has been to provide both funding and to regulate how that funding is spent. including state departments of transportation. House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Highways and Transit Hearing .projects that generate significant economic benefits. The President has touted the ability of an infrastructure bank to harness substantial private and other non-Federal dollars for capital-intensive projects. federal-aid highway or transit grants. at the behest of former Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters. to assemble project capital by providing long-term financial assistance in the form of secured loans. $100 million in federal credit subsidy can result in $1 billion in federal loans to support a $3 billion project. Frankly. . contracting and financing of large transportation projects in ways that minimize the use of federal gas tax revenues. Nossaman has assisted in the delivery of many of the signature projects that have utilized the foundational mechanisms provided by the existing surface transportation authorization bill. commercial loans. as far as transportation projects are concerned. B. JMP) Chairman Duncan. I couldn't agree more. My name is Geoff Yarema. local governments and private entities. which in turn. would be to use federal dollars to leverage private investment to finance large public works projects. transit and rail projects since 1998. including transportation projects that are critical to mobility.S. Under TIFIA. Ranking Member DeFazio and members of the Subcommittee. the role of the federal government in delivering large transportation infrastructure projects is changing. The Evolution of Federal Infrastructure Funding. helping to build the next generation of transportation infrastructure. TIFIA loans provide foundational financing that encourages public sponsors to identify and dedicate project funding from non-federal sources.

Indeed. and most voters say that in its current state the nation‘s transportation system is barely adequate. Public Opinion Strategies. 7/20/12. two in three voters say that making improvements in infrastructure is very important. and establishing a National Infrastructure Bank.Elections DA 36/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 2NC NIB National Infrastructure Bank is unpopular HRA 2011 – Hart Research Associates (The Rockefeller Foundation. While wide support exists for encouraging more private investment. . Voters seek better and safer roads and more public transportation options. The Rockefeller Foundation Infrastructure Survey.rockefellerfoundation.pdf) Even with a highly polarized electorate that remains steadfast in its belief that things in the nation are off on the wrong track there is wide agreement—across the partisan spectrum—that leaders in Washington should be seeking common ground. imposing penalties on over-budget projects. 02/14/2011. as is the case with many spending-related issues today. Nowhere is this more true than legislation related to the country ‘s transportation infrastructure.org/uploads/files/80e28432-0790-4d42-91ec-afb6d11febee. At the same time. few believe that current government spending in this area is efficient and wise. and voters welcome a range of reforms in how transportation projects are financed. widely agreeing that the United States would benefit from an expanded and improved public transportation system . http://www. voters are unwilling to personally pay for additional funding of national transportation projects. there is very little support for increasing the federal gas tax or increasing tolls on interstate highways and bridges. Moreover.

Elections DA 37/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 1NC Title XI .

8 Billion in Loan Guarantees in Their Districts. . with $11.com/2011/09/23/house-republicans-complain-about-loan-guarantees-with-11-8-billionin-loan-guarantees-in-their-districts/)//EM Playing up the Solyndra bankruptcy to the highest political degree possible. House Republicans Complain about Loan Guarantees. http://cleantechnica.‖ Practically every conservative politician speaking to the press about Solyndra has used these phrases. Republicans are using their best rhetorical tricks..Elections DA 38/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah --Loan Guarantees Failures of loan guarantees make them unpopular Lacey 11 – reporter for Climate Progress (Stephen. often in the exact same sentence. 9/23/11. They have homed in on two phrases to describe loan guarantees — calling them a tool of ―crony capitalism‖ and claiming that they allow the government ―to pick winners and losers.

Executives said the program encouraged Republicans led by Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio. ‗Not Appropriate‘ Woolard said BrightSource ―decided that it was not appropriate‖ to write Daley. Incentives and Feasibility of Truck Ferry‖. and Marcus. The Hill E2 Wire.1%2F49879%2F464231726. http://thehill. chief executive Executives from four renewable-energy companies defended officer of BrightSource Energy Inc. Energy Department loan-guarantee program that House Republicans said showed failures in President Barack Obama‘s job-creating efforts. told lawmakers today that a $1. At today‘s hearing.‖ 7/11/12.6 billion guarantee for a solar-generating facility in California will create 1. he said. Without the backing. ―OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Loan Guarantee Battle Flares in House. Bryson is now Commerce secretary and Daley has left the White House.S. noting the collapse of Solyndra and bankruptcy of some other companies that have received loan guarantees. ―Short Sea Shipping: Barriers. investment. shipyards [37]. In the current political climate. then director of the loan program. nine Title XI loans defaulted.google. Jordan‘s panel has expanded the probe. who have focused on the collapse of Solyndra LLC about two years after winning a $535 million loan guarantee.‖ The program ―wasted vast sums of money. Title XI is a part of the Merchant Marine Act of 1936 that established the Federal Ship Financing Guarantee Program to assist private companies in obtaining financing for the construction of ships and the modernization of U. chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee stimulus oversight panel. Welsh. improving their performance until between 1998 and 2002. interest rates encountered are invariably lower for the shipowners. In one e.title 11 loans are seen as a failure to the industry Darcy. Mark and Henry. with the House Energy and Commerce Committee holding a hearing about the GOP‘s ―No More Solyndras‖ bill. 2009—Engineering Duty Officer at US Navy. Even if you win that the voters like the navy. Woolard said the company won its loan on the merits. Most recently (and most importantly since it is fresh in the mind of the government and lawmakers) the failure of American Classic Voyages was a black eye for MARAD which was required to complete a $367M obligation when a Title XI loan guarantee had to be settled in 2001 [38]. Republicans say the ―No More Solyndras‖ bill is needed to reform and ultimately phase out a program that they allege has been wasteful with taxpayer dollars. http://www. the company probably would have invested more overseas. GoP opposes loan guarantees Geman and Colman 7-11 – both staff writers for The Hill (Ben and Zack.Elections DA 39/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah --2NC LG link Failures of title 11 loans make them unpopular in The lacey evidence cites solydra‘s default as evidence that loan guarantees fail to produce economic innovation. and that the projects were awarded after rigorous U. however. http://www.S. the mortgage guarantees appear as none too subtle subsidies to the shipping industry. This is evidenced by the Maritime Administration’s reluctance to issue Title XI guarantees.pdf%3Fse quence%3D1&ei=pRrhT6WvB8Oh0QWGyezZDA&usg=AFQjCNHtk_8v9stCI1RMUYpvpx5_z6xy4g)//NJain In the not too distant past. Woolard asked Jonathan Silver.S. Republicans said e-mails from BrightSource in 2011 showed a cozy relationship with the White House. and prevent so-called subordination of taxpayer interests to private investors in any loan guarantees.mit.mail.businessweek.edu%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F1721. (BRSE) (BRSE). The draft legislation – named after the failed DOE-backed solar company – would sunset the loan guarantee program. ship owners and companies desiring to enter the sea shipping trade were able to raise capital privately and be aided by the Federal Government with a mortgage guarantee known as Title XI mortgage insurance. These defaults combined with the ―credit 43 crunch‖ and sub-prime loan failures. Where these guarantees are available. review. Professor of the Practice of Naval Construction and Engineering and Professor of Marine Systems (Joseph. and suggested politics was behind the awards. ―Loan-Guarantee Winners Back Loans as Republicans Complain. MIT. the department completed BrightSource‘s loan guarantee. place new parameters on reviews of existing applications. June 2009. The Obama administration‘s energy programs are being investigated by House Republicans. Between 1985 and 1987. ―Our ‗No More Solyndras Act‘ will ensure taxpayers are no longer vulnerable to the Obama administration‘s game of crony . said government shouldn‘t pick ―who wins and who loses.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CGcQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdspace. Shipping incentives in the United States have had a semi-sordid past. Bloomberg Businessweek.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/237399-overnight-energy-loan-guarantee-battle-flares-in-house)//RD House Republicans will take fresh shots at the Energy Department‘s (DOE) loan guarantee program Thursday. The panel will hear from witnesses including the acting head of DOE‘s loan program.400 construction jobs at its peak. The Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 imposed stricter requirements on the issuance of these guarantees. more than a year after it gave the company a conditional commitment. In April. that is not going to factor into their vote This is empirically true. to proofread a letter BrightSource Chairman John Bryson planned to send Bill Daley. will most likely make lending requirements even more strict.‖ Jordan said today at a committee hearing. John Woolard. GoP doesn‘t like loan guarantees Snyder 5-16 – Staff writer for Bloomberg (Jim. 129 Title XI defaults cost the government nearly $2B [37]. asking for help with the Energy Department loan.‖ 5/16/12.com/news/2012-05-16/loan-guarantee-winners-back-loans-as-republicans-complain)//RD a U. White House chief of staff.

Cliff Stearns (R-Fla. when rolling out the draft bill Tuesday. Spain. or anywhere else. ―But this Administration believes that just because there is risk here.‖ . But DOE officials say those headwinds shouldn‘t obscure the wider successes of the program. innovative technologies get off the ground. ―As we have consistently said. which was first authorized in a bipartisan 2005 energy law and expanded in the 2009 stimulus. that doesn‘t mean we should throw up our hands and cede the jobs of the future to China.‖ he said in a statement.Elections DA 40/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah capitalism.‖ said Rep.). Congress recognized that risk by putting aside $10 billion in loan loss reserves. Damien LaVera. said the department takes the use of taxpayer dollars seriously and is strengthening oversight of the program. there is a degree of risk inherent in helping new. the GOP‘s point man on the Solyndra probe. a DOE spokesman.

the water road concept won‘t float.‖ he said. Transportation funding disappeared for paved roads. told POLITICO. make our transportation system greener and develop the vast unused capacity on our waterways. Waterways have less experience carrying container goods than bulk cargo. told POLITICO that the federal DOT‘s marine highway push languished partly because it coincided with the economic downturn. ―Putting this forward would be an indication of how serious the government is to help the industry into existence. Rail toots by towns. in order to relieve congestion on our roadways. Talk about its marine highways and watch the blank stares. The agency backs the Marine Highways Cooperative.‖ said Sean Connaughton. ―Federal marine highways project hard to launch‖.‖ said Chris Coakley. Politico. Connaughton.‖ To do that. ― The bottom line. ranking member of the House Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee. UPS stops at the front door. The problem: American companies don‘t want to build container vessels for an invisible buyer. a maritime adviser who specializes in marine highways. These river and coastal corridors. ―I personally don‘t think it has happened as well as it should. told POLITICO. escalating highway congestion and a push for greener transport. ― It’s a lightning rod . the industry would need enough ships to carry the goods. ports.html ] Mention America‘s highways and notice the nods. a former DOT maritime administrator who created the department‘s America‘s Marine Highway Program.‖ said DOT spokesman Justin Nisly. (R-Ohio). ―This system encourages people not to use the water. 5/22/12.000 miles of water routes. ―is freight doesn‘t vote. ―There‘s not a retail connection to the maritime industry. thrive in Europe and exist in a handful of U.‖ Rep. Trucks and railroads maintain the upper hand on speed. known as marine highways or short-sea shipping.‖ Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood has designated 18 marine highway corridors in recent years and directed more than $110 million toward marine highway projects. But shippers have to pay an additional tax if goods are off-loaded in one location and shipped to a second port. a company that started with marine transport and now manages a variety of trade operations. Trucks already pay higher user fees and railroads are mostly self-financed. He has sponsored a bipartisan bill to gut the tax.‖ Several lawmakers have keyed on the issue. ―When financing a vessel. regions. a public-private partnership dedicated to developing the country‘s 25. public recognition and state support.‖ said Paul Bea. now Virginia‘s secretary of transportation. ―The markets aren‘t there. Back to the Catch-22. http://www.com/news/stories/0512/76633. ―It le vels the playing field and achieves some balance in the movement of goods. the industry needs an almost mythical nexus of federal incentives.S. American Feeder Lines just ended its nine-month container ship service along the Northeast largely because of a shortage of suitable vessels. ―This administration has yet to request any funding goal s for a marine transportation system.‖ Maritime groups point to the elimination of a so-called double tax as the place to start. Even if the bill were to pass.S. it doesn‘t face this second tax. the president of the Maritime Institute for Research and Industrial Development. ―The Obama administration is committed to investing in innovative marine transportation services along America‘s coast and waterways. Like similar bills in previous sessions.‖ he said. When freight moves by land. A longtime law known as the Jones Act allows only American built and manned ships to operate between U. They‘re billed as the future — a cheaper and more fuelefficient option for an overburdened transportation system. 12 – staff writer for Politico [Jessica Meyers. The tax issue also delves into transport equality.‖ Rep. Container ships… . And companies remain leery of an uncertain market filled with tax hurdles and ship shortages. it hasn‘t gotten far. but you can‘t have that until shippers commit. Rick Larsen (D-Wash. much less a quiet transportation mode still trying to prove its worth. A Department of Transportation initiative intended to promote the country‘s water routes has failed to make substantial inroads despite a 2007 federal law.‖ Waterways are a bit of a public relations nightmare. All cargo that comes into the country is subject to a harbor maintenance tax. ―It‘s a chicken-and-egg type of thing. it‘s great to have an established market to point to. We still have a ways to go. James Patti. a Ways and Means Committee member.Elections DA 41/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah --SSS The plan is a political lightning rod – tanks capital Meyers. the vice president of governmental affairs for Saltchuk Resources. Patrick Tiberi.‖ said C.politico. Not all Democratic lawmakers agree. ―Shippers won‘t commit until there‘s reliable service. But marine highways remain more a political talking point than an industry reality.). Without greater demand.

. MIT. will most likely make lending requirements even more strict. These defaults combined with the ―credit 43 crunch‖ and sub -prime loan failures. Title XI is a part of the Merchant Marine Act of 1936 that established the Federal Ship Financing Guarantee Program to assist private companies in obtaining financing for the construction of ships and the modernization of U. is an effort. and drag organized labor down with it. This is evidenced by the Maritime Administration‘s reluctance to issue Title XI guarantees. June 2009] In the not too distant past. shipyards]. ―Short Sea Shipping: Barriers. 10 [(Intl Longshore and Warehouse Union). We need dedicated freight corridors. Most recently (and most importantly since it is fresh in the mind of the government and lawmakers) the failure of American Classic Voyages was a black eye for MARAD which was required to complete a $367M obligation when a Title XI loan guarantee had to be settled in 2001. and blind acceptance of a concept that even with subsidy will fail. Scarce government tax dollars should be used for land-based infrastructure designed to efficiently move containers to and from established ports.Elections DA 42/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah --2NC SSS SSS is unpopular. In the current political climate. however.S. http://www. Title XI failures make ship-subsidies unpopular Darcy et al 09 (Joseph Darcy Engineering Duty Officer at US Navy. interest rates encountered are invariably lower for the shipowners. the mortgage guarantees appear as none too subtle subsidies to the shipping industry. It is just the opposite.com/2011/02/the-caseagainst-short-sea-shipping/] Subsidy and promotion of SSS by the governments of the United States. improving their performance until between 1998 and 2002. promotion. ship owners and companies desiring to enter the short sea shipping trade were able to raise capital privately and be aided by the Federal Government with a mortgage guarantee known as Title XI mortgage insurance. our evidence also indicates that it is perceived as a political lightning rod during times of economic uncertainty The public views it as boosting a failing industry and will tank the unions ILWU. Shipping incentives in the United States have had a semi-sordid past. Incentives and Feasibility of Truck Ferry‖. rail enhancements and dredging that bring stability to the industry — not the funding. Canada and Mexico. SSS is not a panacea for additional union jobs. bridges. Republished in Longshore and Shipping News. 129 Title XI defaults cost the government nearly $2B. to deregulate maritime transportation and drive organized labor consequentially from the Industry. Coast Longshore Division Newsletter. nine Title XI loans defaulted. one of several fronts. Where these guarantees are available. Mark Welsh Professor of the Practice of Naval Construction and Engineering and Henry Marcus Professor of Marine Systems. The Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 imposed stricter requirements on the issuance of these guarantees.longshoreshippingnews. Winter 2010. our evidence indicates that people think that it is inconvenient to have large barges passing by their cities. Between 1985 and 1987.

Elections DA 43/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

Elections DA 44/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah ***INTERNAL LINKS*** .

Iowa.org/crystalball/ With five months to go until Election Day 2012. Michigan. however.Elections DA 45/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Link Booster – Tiny Shifts Matter Even tiny swings have huge impact – determine the outcome Abramowitz.046 adults were interviewed on landline and cellular telephones. with the race between Obama and Romney expected to be very close. What is striking. New Hampshire. Ohio. Florida. These findings raise an important question for the Obama and Romney campaigns. The March 20-26 survey was conducted at a time when Mitt Romney was still battling with Rick Santorum for the Republican nomination. Now that Romney has locked up the GOP nomination. is that as early as March. Still. 6/7/12 http://www. Swing voters: Unhappy with Obama but unenthusiastic abou t voting One important finding from Gallup‘s March swing state poll is that there were relatively few swing voters in these swing states. Virginia and Wisconsin. Nevada. while 41% supported Mitt Romney and another 2% leaned toward Romney. A total of 1. even a small group of swing voters could decide the outcome . Among registered voters. how much emphasis should they give to mobilizing potential supporters versus persuading undecided voters? The answer to this question depends on the characteristics and political attitudes of two key groups of voters in the battleground states: unregistered supporters and undecided registered voters. . In deciding how to allocate money and other resources. Pennsylvania. Center for politics. This was the most recent battleground state polling data available for analysis. So who are these swing voters? To answer this question. In order to compare the potential payoffs of a strategy emphasizing mobilization compared with a strategy emphasizing persuasion.centerforpolitics. Obama‘s lead i n these battleground states may very well be smaller. all indications are that the presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is going to go down to the wire and that the outcome will ultimately be decided by voters in 10-15 battleground states in which neither candidate has a decisive advantage. including 871 registered voters. 49% supported Barack Obama and another 1% indicated that they leaned toward Obama. relatively few registered voters were unwilling to state a preference in a Romney-Obama contest. Senior Columnist. North Carolina. The results are displayed in Table 1. I compared the characteristics and political attitudes of swing voters (those who were undecided or only leaning toward a candidate) with the characteristics and attitudes of voters who were supporting either Obama or Romney. swing voters made up less than 10% of the electorate in these 12 states. Even combining leaners with the undecided. New Mexico. Abramowitz. I analyzed data from a March 20-26 Gallup Poll in 12 key battleground states: Colorado. 6/7/12 Alan I.

47 percent to 45 p ercent. Take the polls. see a lot of metrics pointing to a very close contest that could go either way. or Mitt Romney. Center For Politics. for example. particularly. The averages of all major national polls show the race as extremely close. New Hampshire might also be tight. http://www. Both models make Obama a slight favorite to win a second term.com gives Obama a 1. Does this really translate into a strong advantage for the president? Obama‘s job-approval ratings are often ―upside down‖ in pollster parlance. (I am increasingly skeptical that Obama can win North Carolina. what highly regarded pollsters doing surveys for various senatorial and gubernatorial candidates and for ballot initiatives in the states say. well-defined incumbents (the ―what you see is what you get‖ rule for those in office).Elections DA 46/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah --Ext – Small Shifts Matter Small swings matter – its super close and next couple months key Abramowitz. They don‘t see an election in which either Obama.9 percent approve. because that prediction stands in stark contrast to what most pollsters. Gallup‘s seven-day tracking poll puts the president‘s lead at 1 point.) I pay a lot of attention to the top-dollar surveys by the Obama and Romney campaigns—and.2-percentage-point lead over Romney. versus those with the view from the cheap seats.com (46. Those interested in assessing where the presidential race stands should focus on these two indicators rather than the day-to-day events of the campaign. National Journal. for that matter. Cook Political Report. Just sayin‘. Pennsylvania.org. 5/17. is likely to have an almost six-in-10 chance of winning. Iowa. and others who study these things closely. Pollster. Gallup also shows 47 percent approve and disapprove numbers for the week of May 7-13. The number crunchers who conduct and analyze polls. 46.5 percent disapprove). 48. which tend to dominate media coverage of the election. seven states—Colorado.3 percent to 45.org/crystalball/articles/whatdoes-president-obama%E2%80%99s-may-approval-rating-tell-us-about-his-reelection-chances/) Whether we base our prediction on President Obama‘s 47% approval rating in the Gallup Poll in early May or a more sophisticat ed forecasting model incorporating economic conditions and the ―time for change‖ factor.8 percent chance of Obama winning that interests me today. 12 (Alan. with disapprovals running higher than approvals in both Pollster. whom I talked with privately. often break away from well-known. that separates the top-notch pollsters from the cut-rate crowd). believe. . Undecided voters. which bloggers and Internet armchair analysts so avidly follow (ask them about calling cell phones. http://cookpolitical.1 percent. Is that really a decisive edge? In terms of the Electoral College.centerforpolitics. Senior Columnist.com/node/12510) But it‘s the 58. 5/23. and Virginia—are likely to be extremely close. the final outcome will depend on the actual performance of the economy and the public‘s evaluation of the president‘s job performance in the months ahead. I don‘t put a lo t of stock in the dime-store polls. Florida. Ohio. Realclearpolitics. I‘m only pointing out that the discrepancy is real between what the pros on the sidelines and those in the press box are seeing. Nevada.com pegs Obama‘s lead at 2 points. 46 percent to 45 percent. it appears likely that we are headed for a very close election in November. Its super tight – could go either way now Cook. 48. Democrats and Republicans alike. 12 (Charlie. Don‘t get me wrong: I‘m not predicting that Obama will lose.4 percent disapprove) and Realclearpolitics (48 percent approve. Prof Poli Sci @ Emory. However.

While we have advocates and analysts of various stripes on this blog. I would bet that 90% of the participants would agree on 85% of what needs to be done on transportation policy. 10 Ed Wytkind.nationaljournal.com/2010/10/obama-infrastructure-a-toppri. it would be in public transportation modes that the real expansion would be made. but the task is figuring out the politics.Elections DA 47/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Obama Push Normal means is Obama push – only way plan can pass Wytkind. 10/28. Also a freelance journalist who has been published in Planning Magazine. Honolulu. AFL-CIO. which will expire on March 31 according to the current law. But even it faces the strong possibility of being ditched in favor of a simple extension of the existing bill. well summarized by Greg Principato. on the House and Senate floors. At this point. at $32 billion) would be the most important contributions of the program. and thus the p ossibility of expanding spending on transportation. LeighFisher. however. the amount of money needed for this purpose is lessened. while the industry will continue to debate parts of the authorizations. they will be concerned about their company's bottom line. Bachelor of Arts in Architecture. Whether we are considering the surface or the FAA authorization--or policies governing maritime. Though the legislation as currently designed will not be passed into law because of reluctance from Congress.7% of the budget in FY 2018. Dissent. Because of the decision to pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Freemark ‗12 (Yonah – Master of Science in Transportation from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. we need the Obama Administration to lay out detailed policy and funding plans (or at the very least set boundaries for what it is prepared to accept) and we need committee and party leaderships that are willing to work together in a bipartisan manner to find solutions. ( ) Their premise is backwards – Obama knows transportation faces opposition. That‘s with $0 committed to transit! The Administration proposal. Yale University with Distinction. Indeed. The Atlantic Cities.com/2012/02/14/the-presidents-budget-full-of-ambition-short-on-congressional-support/ The executive branch‘s proposed spending for FY 2013 would greatly expand spending on transit and intercity rail. The defection of several House Republicans away from their own party‘s transportation bill suggests that the legislation may not even get out of their chamber. Few disagree with the notions that our current policies are failing us and than we need a new national transportation policy. See table below. the Obama Administration‘s continued efforts to expand funding for sustainable mobility options are to be praised. which mirror similar proposals from previous years. vested interests and advocates will be as they always are. Yet their proposal would create a $78 billion funding shortfall in the Highway Trust Fund over the next ten years according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.php?comments=expandall#comments President Obama has devoted more White House attention to transportation policy than we have seen from the White House in 50 years . Past experience and Obama priorities prove Van Beek. but DOES get involved in pushing.php?comments=expandall#comments But today‘s political stalemate is unlike any we‘ve seen in recent history. the stack of good policy reports sitting on my bookshelf is easily over a foot high. the problem is doing it. the interests of members in their organization or association and/or the case they advocate. 10 Steve Van Beek. Nonetheless. and through the bicameral reconcilation process. is only the latest report by an esteemed group of transportation leaders documenting the problems of our current policies and recommending solutions to fix them. and Portland. http://transportation. Sure. results focused. for five California rail projects and new light rail lines for Charlotte.nationaljournal. 10/27.thetransportpolitic. rail. is fully funded (or at least accounted for*) and would transform the Highway Trust Fund into the much more reasonably titled Transportation Trust Fund. How do we move the process forward? Based on past experience. Though expenditures on highways would increase significantly as well. and The Infrastructurist – He created and continues to write for the website The Transport Politic – The Transport Politic –Feb 14th – http://www. Next American City Magazine. Significant spending on intercity rail — almost $50 billion over six years — as well as new transit capital projects ($21 billion) and state of good repair (SOGR. which is used to support armed operations abroad. Next American City Online. Depending on where they sit. on the other hand.com/2010/10/obama-infrastructure-a-toppri. the White House proposes to pay for its transportation bill by reducing the size of the Overseas Contingency Operations fund. In addition. the Obama Administration‘s plans for this expansion in transit funding. The White House has introduced a budget — and a reauthorization proposal — that would significantly increase investment in transportation infrastructure over the next six years. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. President. or practicing alchemy to find the necessary resources to enact the policy. What we need is the collective will and leadership to enact long-term authorizations and policies. this highly charged electoral season will soon be in the rearview mirror. increasing those programs from 22. In addition to revenues from the fuel tax (which no one seems willing to advocate increasing). It‘s clear that we‘re going to need the Administration‘s leadership if we‘re going to do anything worth doing. The problem is not finding a magic formula for policy. but it face s a hostile Congress.9% of the overall DOT budget for surface transportation in fiscal year 2013 (and 21% in actual spending in FY 2011) to 35. Transportation Trades Department. Over the course of the next six years. Thus. the Administration proposes significant expansions in transit and rail spending. Chief of Policy and Strategy and Director. It brings good news. Then our elected representatives need to do what we elect them to do: legislate. livability or any other issue of transportation policy--the problem is not knowing what we need to do. http://transportation. aviation and maritime transportation system. the Miller Center report. The knee-jerk reactions to the Columbus Day meeting from a handful of congressional leaders – while not a surprise to anyone – were an illustration of a chronic problem in Washington that has derailed action on critically needed bills to invest billions in our nation‘s surface. are a reminder of the ambitions for improved transportation that are possible in this country but continue to be derailed by political forces hostile to . the Senate‘s bipartisan. mostly status-quo-extending two-year transportation reauthorization bill is now the most likely of all three proposals to be official government policy by the end of the spring. the priorities of each piece of legislation are very clear. Fortunately. Most of the President‘s proposal is unlikely to see the light of day in the House of Representatives. ultimately those issues will be resolved as they always are--in committee. controlled by Republicans newly hostile to the idea of using Highway Trust Fund revenues to pay for transit projects.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.‖ ( ) Normal means forces Presidential involvement in some aspect of the negotiation. one in which the future is won through public investment in essential infrastructure. lead the future. 2011 – http://www. It‘s a voter – we could never win. Biden concluded his speech with the following: ―If we do not take this step now. and The Infrastructurist – He created and continues to write for the website The Transport Politic – The Transport Politic – February 8th. We are determined to lead again. Valley High School Rishi Shah the idea of investing in the nation‘s infrastructure . And this is the beginning of our effort to. Dissent. Obama is making evident his plan to promote himself as the candidate for a renewed America. . This represents a very real contrast to the political posturing of his Republican opponents.com/2011/02/08/the-white-house-stakes-its-political-capital-on-a-massive-intercity-railplan/) Whatever the immediate success of the President‘s proposal. Given GOP composition in Congress. Bachelor of Arts in Architecture. who have been staking their political cause on being opposed to government spending of almost any type. They can‘t sever this – it makes debate less educational and they become a moving target. This is a serious proposal to significantly improve the state of the nation‘s rail and bus systems — if we ( ) Obama will draw himself into transportation legislation – he wants to show election contrast. Next American City Magazine. Mr. We cannot settle. Mr. you tell me how America is going to have the opportunity to lead the world economy in the 21st Century like we did in the 20th. Next American City Online.Elections DA 48/150 choose to take it. Also a freelance journalist who has been published in Planning Magazine. Yale University with Distinction. The Atlantic Cities. if we do not seize the futu re. Freemark ‗11 (Yonah – Master of Science in Transportation from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. some White House wrangling must take place. once again.thetransportpolitic.

Studies of the determinants of public infrastructure investment include Cadot et al. Kemmerling and Stephan (2002. The former study looks at determinants of highway project selection by the California Division of Highways. as currently perception of the airports‘ role is being revised. Department of Economics. asserting that congressmen respond to common pool incentives when voting for transportation projects. regulators have been reconsidering the role of the airports.pdf (the october date is correct even though the web address says September) The literature suggests three possible sources of political influence : the White House (President). and the amount of the ARRA grant received by the airport.uci. and estimation results are not entirely robust to taking election results from the adjacent districts into consideration. we extend the literature on public provision of infrastructure. while the latter examines congressional voting on transportation projects. congressional district level results of November 2008 election (both Presidential and House). Our data analysis showed the association between the airport‘s location in the Congressional Distric t with the larger Obama-McCain vote differential in November 2008 Presidential election. Empirical research on the impact of politics on transport infrastructure investment deals mostly with the European data.. Cont… Moreover. prisons). the US Senate. The criteria for the airport infrastructure projects to be funded under the ARRA were rather vague 2 . as it examines (and confirms the existence of) the impact of political factors on airport investment in Spain. controlling for the State level composition of the Senate. We take advantage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 (more broadly known as the Stimulus) to examine contribution of political factors to allocation of the $1. As for hypotheses related to the impact of the White House. Also. Data analysis suggests the following general conclusions about the supposed impact of political factors on allocation of ARRA airport infrastructure grants. at least as far as involvement of the federal government is concerned. and the determinants of the infrastructure investment. tornadoes or corn fields. study of aviation related infrastructure offers an attractive environment for examining the more general issue of political factors behind the allocation of federal funds. we do not find strong evidence of impact of the House of Representatives election results or membership in Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Aschauer. The Stimulus provides an excellent case for studying political economy of airport (and more generally. (2006). and ARRA became law on February 17. 1989. At the same time. appropriated under the ARRA of 2009. 1994) is much richer than the latter. Garrett and Sobel (2003) find that states which are politically important to the president will have a higher rate of the disaster declaration.. 2008). results of the presidential election appear to affect the amounts of grants.g. Garrett et al.Elections DA 49/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Obama gets credit Obama gets involved and disproportionately targets funds to key political states Bilotkach. but do not have an impact on whether the airport receives the grant. and the Congressional Committees. and should be beneficial to the politicians capable of securing the funds.pdf (the october date is correct even though the web address says September) The federal government plays a crucial role in the infrastructure investment in the U nited S tates. All the listed papers study infrastructure investment in Europe. The only studies of political determinants of transport infrastructure investment in the US are McFadden (1976) – an examination of project choices by California Division of Highways. airports located in States represented by two Democratic Party senators are also more likely to obtain the grants. Irvine. 10 Volodymyr. Throughout the world. including allocation of funds to the airports. University of California. http://www. Given that airports are perceived to bring substantial benefits to the respective communities. First. Department of Economics. Airports and airfields are ubiquitous. as the grants have been appropriated after the election and almost four years before the next Presidential election is scheduled to take place. Holz-Eakin. 2006) in allocation of the federal funds across the jurisdictions. On the US side. the amounts involved are also higher. Additionally. we make use of information on the airport infrastructure grants.edu/~vbilotka/Draft_September10. we can suppo se that ARRA grants might have been used to reward districts which showed support to Obama. federally funded airport infrastructure projects are both sought after.edu/~vbilotka/Draft_September10. It is believed that involvement of the private sector will bring about efficiency gains. The former literature (e. our understanding . This study offers the first look at the issue of impact of political factors on the aviation infrastructure investment in the USA. the authors also find the election year effects on the amounts of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) disaster payments. Bel and Fageda (2009). Complicated structure of the American political system creates possibilities for strong influence of political factors on the process of allocation of infrastructure investment funds. unlike. district level election results are poor predictors of whether the airport receives the grant. For this study. We hypothesize that the impact of the White House should be the strongest in this particular case – recall that passing the economic stimulus legislation was one of Barack Obama‘s priorities as a candidate. 2005) and Congressional Committees (e. Third.uci. 2009. and Senate election results. We also detect rather robust evidence of the impact of Senate on the grant allocation process. or the Congress as a mechanism to reward districts which brought more votes in the latest election.socsci. we find a lot of studies asserting the disproportionate power of the Senate 3 (e. and include McFadden (1976) and Knight (2004). Also.socsci. Hoover and Pecorino. http://www. The studies examining US evidence are rare. Obama will play the largest role and voters love it Bilotkach. 2009. The law was set up rather hastily – Barack Obama was elected President in November of 2008. members of the corresponding Congress Committees (in particular. October. inaugurated on January 20. An increasing number of countries have started viewing airports as the firms rather than the infrastructure objects.. finding limited impact of political determinants on the selection process. welcomed. This paper contributes to two broad strains of literature. of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure) might have used ARRA as an opportunity to bring more money to their districts. other things equal. for instance. and that privately run airports may be more willing and able to contribute to solving the congestion problem. Castells and Sole-Olle (2005). University of California. First. We supplement this data with airport characteristics. as well as Knight (2004). Understanding the role of politics in this area is of no trivial importance. Fridstrom and Elvik (1997).g.g. infrastructure) investment. October. as evidenced by the election results. simple demographic measures. Irvine.1 billion worth of the airport grants included into the package. and the latter has the most relevance to our paper.g. unlike some other kinds of federally provided infrastructure (e. Research in this area has been addressing the issues of both effects of the publicly provided infrastructure on private sector productivity. Privatization and deregulation of the airports is also becoming more common.. An alternative explanation – grants could be used to sway voters in the districts where support for Obama was not sufficiently strong – is less plausible. Second. we find that airports located in the States carried by a Republican at the latest Senate election show higher likelihood of obtaining the grant.. airports are generally viewed favorably by the public . At the same time. 10 Volodymyr. We can therefore suspect that the airport infrastructure grants could have been used by the Administration.

Elections DA 50/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah of the determinants of public infrastructure investment. privatization. and especially of the role of political factors. The next issue to be addressed – and the one which will require a more thorough investigation of these political factors – is what our results imply for such important public policy issues as airport regulation. and congestion. We find that political factors matter. is far from complete. . This study is one of the first attempts at looking into both issues together.

particularly in a presidential campaign. resorts instead to carping at 'his' program.typepad. while Democrats think Republicans in Congress are in control. That. the president has little leverage. Obama's polls have been falling. Obama's big mistake. whenever the desires of the president conflict with the desires of the speaker of the House. though I'm not convinced that we're heading toward a parliamentary system. and PACs and corporate donors have become more and more essential. http://www. In this future. maybe they'll hold out for even greater cuts or a deal that protects defense spending. while Democrats view Republicans as in control by 55 to 26 percent. Congress. The electoral issue. Generally. In addition. I'm skeptical of the formation of an actual center party but not of center bloc. We elect shamans. Dr. Obama is being declared the big loser from both sides of the aisle. as Hacker and Hathaway argue.while denying any responsibility for the mess it helped create. North Star partners with Resurgent Republic to conduct surveys and focus groups on popular issues and trends that help shape public debate over the proper role of government. Profits of Science: The American Marriage of Business and Technology and Gene Dreams: Wall Street. 11/8. but still view Obama/Democrats in control by 39 to 34 percent. may be wishful thinking.‖ Mr. not people. ideological and mostly idiotic. If anything goes badly wrong his political adversaries pick up the pieces and are strengthened. From an electoral perspective -. As the columns and blogs suggest this morning. It's like a parliamentary system. president of North Star Opinion Research. Bush years. complexity and dealmaking become deeply suspect to an electorate that believes they've been sold down the river. any bill that a speaker insists is must-pass gets attached to a debt-ceiling increase. revealing how dysfunctional the relationship between Congress and the president has become.nytimes. and -. which presents the unlikely sight of a blackmailer crowing about his successful operation.and part of that political problem is that we can't seem to forget. at the end of the day. 2011.unless there are people in the Senate equally willing to risk disaster.lexis The debt ceiling looks like it will be raised. substance -. is what's more important: deficit reduction (with all the affiliated issues: tax hikes or entitlement cuts) or the blackmail problem. both the congressional fecklessness -. The two-step begins with a Congress that is hamstrung and incapable of effective action. parties. 11 (North Star Opinion Research.Elections DA 51/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Obama = Credit/Blame Obama gets credit and blame among independent voters NSOR. with full results available here. In that case. managing to confirm the conventional wisdom of Washington inaction. as the media emerges in full-throated roar. but we've also got a nasty political problem. In yet another indicator of the low esteem with which Washington is held in the country. signing powers and Bushian arguments of pre-eminent executive power in warmaking. he is the aut hor of two books. there's . all this feels familiar. Teitelman also worked as a writer and editor for Forbes and Financial World. Campaigns have grown more and more expensive.com/2011/08/01/opinion/the-diminishedpresident. Paradoxically. Academia and the Rise of Biotechnology. Cont… Republicans and Independents think Barack Obama and the Democrats control Washington. and. We'll see. both published by Basic Books.html| touches on some of this. the creation of permanent campaigns fosters the opportunity to challenge from the extreme -. with masters degrees in international affairs and journalism from Columbia University.so becomes law.html?ref=todayspaper|Ross Douthat and http://www. In 2003. &nbsp."Much of this makes eminent sense." This helps explain the ease of which Republicans have walked away from the wild spending of the George W. joined by a variety of seething left-of-center pundits -. Party discipline has broken down.Brad DeLonghttp://delong. independent of both increasingly toothless.means little. It was wildly irresponsible. Hard times makes this likelier. Lobbyists proliferate. but then takes it to another place. then he remains in deep trouble a year out from the election. it does feel as if there's stirring discontent with the highly ideological approach to politics from both parties.nytimes. Republicans view Obama and the Democrats as controlling Washington by 67 to 15 percent.that the commentary today has a thread of reflection about the deeper governance problems. stalemate and failure. in terms of discipline.and the accrual of presidential power in the form of executive orders. as are almost all reelection campaigns. with the debt-ceiling votes filling the role of votes of confidence.html?_r=1&ref=global|Paul Krugman in today's New York Times.com/2011/08/01/opinion/our-unbalanced-democracy. was his belief that he could occupy a center in a viciously polarized arena.remember the plague of earmarks -.they at least are spinning that furiously. In The New York Times. because Independents believe the country is worse off than when he was inaugurated. we've got a deal. in politics. Independents split more evenly. co-founded Resurgent Republic with former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie and Impacto Group CEO Leslie Sanchez. the Times' Thomas Friedman saw the crisis as an opportunity for a "radical center" to emerge. He writes today. Min Magazine chose him as one of the ―21 Most Intriguing People‖ in media and in 2008 B2B Magazine selected him as for a ―Media Business Innovator Award.html?ref=global|offer a bracing perspective on a Congress that has increasingly over time eluded accountability. Jacob Hacker and Oona Hathaway http://www. unable or unwilling to defend its role.In fact. as if he's less a political leader and more a medicine man. The demands of the permanent campaign are such that it demands a kind of branding for candidates: clear. distorting the relationship with the executive. Everyone understands the barriers to congressional action: supermajority requirements. Perhaps. regardless of what the Constitution says. The Deal – August 1."reality" that we've heard so much about these days -.Obama is already being declared a loser in 2012. Perhaps he did play this all wrong. It shook people up. replaced by fundraising prowess. which is to say.I'm undoubtedly grasping at straws here -. in the blitz of punditry and spin. the permanent campaign -. for even a moment. Any speaker who does not fear disaster can roll any president. like the Senate's filibuster rule. ( ) White House gets blame for everything Teitelman ‗11 Robert Teitelman is editor in chief of The Deal. &nbsp. though who knows? The House Republicans believe they have won -. But there are far more problems than those.and with the scent of Obama blood in the water. But electorally. "One possibility is that Cantor and Boehner have figured out something that has been inherent in the system since FDR but that few people recognized. Resurgent Republic. "The debate has threatened to play out as a destructive but all too familiar two-step. Today. Perhaps the president is now the ultimate status quo player in the government: Whatever goes wrong the public takes to be his fault and his responsibility.resurgentrepublic.and the possibility that we may see more hostage taking in years ahead? The debt ceiling struggle was a long and ugly tussle. simple. How big is the center these days? How will that center recall these events -. Several weeks ago. Whit Ayres. Congress has evolved a system to avoid the big issues while keeping a flow of benefits going to their supporters and constituents. which is unlikely because senators are status-quo players too -. each party views the other one as in control.particularly in the House. The president then decides he has little alternative but to strike out on his own. dangerous and absurd.nytimes.com/research/voters-believe-america-is-worseoff-than-when-obama-took-office) Resurgent Republic conducted a survey of 1000 American voters October 30 through November 2. Following are key highlights pertaining to President Obama‘s perception among Independent voters: If President Obama's reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent. eavesdropping or torture. Compromise. probably because the president these days gets blamed for everything from a bad economy to Mississippi flooding to lousy student test scores.com/sdj/2011/07/are-we-shifting-toward-a-parliamentarysystem. of course. the Congress problem.I take it as good news -. 'his' war or 'his' economy -. like a debt ceiling or a balanced budget amendment. legislative my-way-or-the-highway mechanisms. see http://www. bloviation.com/2011/08/01/opinion/the-president-surrenders-on-debt-ceiling. 2011 -. He is a graduate of the College of William & Mary. straightforward. the center seems to have vanished.

But what it does point out is how weak the forces of the status quo can be when arrayed against the extremes. That's the real worry here.Elections DA 52/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah simply no way to discipline the members in any way except at the polls. .

Voters who disapprove are very likely to support the president‘s opponent. his job-approval ratings are more significant than the trial heats. and 48.com/node/12364) When a president runs for reelection. Obama‘s approval ratings are close to even means that it should not be surprising that the numbers in his matchup against Mr. they broke for Obama by 34 percentage points. And. Mr. National Journal.com/2012/05/15/a-30000-foot-view-on-the-presidential-race/) is still also worth paying attention to Mr.com/node/12313 When you look back at Barack Obama‘s 7-point victory over John McCain in 2008.Elections DA 53/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Obama Popularity Key Obama Popularity key and can still swing Cook. It‘s far from clear that he can reproduce the unusually strong turnout among younger voters that he sparked in 2008 or match the 66 percent performance level he achieved then. The RealClearPolitics average and the Huffington Post/Pollster. like Barry M. the most reliable benchmark in the past of when presidential results deviate from those predicted by approval ratings is when one of the candidates has a relatively ―extreme‖ ideology. among 18-to-29-year-olds. Romney does not qualify as an extremist by the various measures we can look at that attempt to quantify this objectively — neither does he qualify as a moderate.3 percent of Americans approve of the job that Mr. 4/12. the approval ratings for that incumbent are better measures of voter support than the trial-heat figures. respectively. Obama Popularity key – but can still shift Silver. particularly once the primaries end. Only obama‘s approval rating matters – Romney is irrelevant Cook. Mr. 5/15. 66 percent to 32 percent. they have since improved to about even. but not anything close to 66 pe rcent. when you have a president seeking reelection. For the last month or two.com trend estimate show Obama‘s approval rating at 48 percent and his disapproval score at 47 percent. Instead. Let‘s focus for now on just one leg of the stool. unless he dramatically underperforms with othe r demographic groups. A president can get reelected with numbers like those. 52 percent to 44 percent. they chose Obama over McCain by 8 percentage points. One leg was independent voters (29 percent of the vote). Romney are getting closer to even. finally. That said. 12 (Charlie. As with other key voter groups. But he needs to get relatively close to them to build a sufficient popular-vote cushion to assemble 270 electoral votes. Obama needed each leg to support his candidacy. The data back up the doubts. The second leg was young voters. Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models http://fivethirtyeight. 48. African-Americans (18 percent) backed Obama by 91 percentage points. the young voters. 12 (Nate. Obviously. Goldwater or George S. they have been essentially even. However. when his approval ratings among that sector were typically in the mid-to-high 40s. 95 percent to 4 percent. Visit any college campus today. Cook Political Report. 3/29. I am not a purist who says that candidates and campaigns make no difference. he is a ―generic Republican. Obama‘s approval rating. Obama‘s approval ratings have not moved all that much.blogs. These have a history of predicting electoral outcomes at least as closely as head-to-head polls in the early stages of the race. Obama doesn‘t need to match those performances. Obama‘s numbers with young Americans are better than they were last fall. It is not uncommon for favorability ratings to shift over the course of a campaign. in the RealClearPolitics average. Obama‘s job ratings have ranged in recent weeks from as low as 44 percent to as high as 50 percent. it especially for incumbent presidents. 12 (Charlie. Obama‘s approval ratings. http://cookpolitical. Gallup tracking surveys in January and February recorded Obama‘s job -approval rating at 52 percent and 54 percent. To win reelection. they favored Obama by 36 points. Right now. 67 percent to 31 percent. possibly because his job has been less complicated since the effective end of the Republican primary campaign. McGovern. . Voters who approve of the job a president is doing are very likely to vote to reelect him. Romney also went through a period where his favorability ratings were quite poor. When an incumbent is running. But the fact that Mr. The pattern is a common theme across so many voter groups: Obama is doing better. The third leg was Latinos (9 percent). http://cookpolitical. Mr. You may have noticed that I tend to focus on job-approval numbers rather than trial-heat figures from candidate matchups. and you are likely to sense a lack of passion and energy for Obama. Although we are getting to the point where these national polls are at least worth a passing glance. ages 18-29 (18 percent of vote).6 percent disapprove. he can also lose. chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. Obama is doing. Cook Political Report. too. the election is usually a referendum on that person rather than a choice between two people.‖ who might run fairly close to the outcomes predicted by Mr. think of a four-legged stool. National Journal.nytimes. Historically. The polling suggests he would win the majority of the youth vote. but his gains aren‘t enough to put him close to 2008 levels .

Elections DA 54/150

Valley High School Rishi Shah

A2: Too Soon Now is key to the election -- voters make up their minds several months out and once a trend sets, it will determine the winner
Malone, 6/7/12 Jim Malone, ―Romney Rising, Obama Slipping,‖ Voice of America News, 6 -7-2012 (http://blogs.voanews.com/2012election/2012/06/07/romney-rising-obama-slipping/) So yes, five months is a long time for the voters to decide. But recent presidential election history shows that many voters begin to make up their minds at this point in the election cycle, and that relatively few minds can be changed between now and Election Day. If it‘s true that the cement is beginning to set, the Obama White House may not have a lot of time to change the dynamics of a race that shapes up as a straight up or down vote on how this president has handled the national economy.

Not too early – historical data disproves
Abramowitz, 12
(Alan, Senior Columnist, Center For Politics.org, Prof Poli Sci @ Emory, 5/23, http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/what-does-presidentobama%E2%80%99s-may-approval-rating-tell-us-about-his-reelection-chances/) According to a Gallup Poll analysis of recent polling data on the mood of the American public, President Obama appears to face a difficult road to winning a second term in November. The specific indicators of the national mood included in Gallup‘s analysis were economic confidence, the percentage of Americans citing the economy as the country‘s most important problem, satisfaction with the state of the nation and approval of the president‘s job performance. While all of these indicators have shown some improvement in the past year, according to Gallup they all remain at levels that suggest trouble for the incumbent. For example, only 24% of Americans said that they were satisfied with the direction of the country and 66% cited the economy as the most important problem facing the nation. There is little evidence about how indicators like satisfaction with the direction of the country or perceptions of the most important problem facing the nation affect the outcomes of presidential elections. However, there is strong evidence that an incumbent president‘s approval rating, even several months before Election

Day, has a strong relationship to the eventual outcome of the election.

Early voting is a game changer- pushes every deadline forward and makes early organization and fundraising critical- Romney is especially adept means now is key for Obama
Slate, 3-12-2012 http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/victory_lab/2012/03/mitt_romney_s_early_voting_mastery_his_rivals_never_stood_ a_chance_.html
The political media may have welcomed the closing of polls on recent evenings in Florida, Michigan, Arizona, and Ohio with an air of suspense, but the members of Mitt Romney‘s team knew they already had more votes than their opponents. In the case of Florida, Romney‘s advisers believed Newt Gingrich would need an extraordinary Election Day performance to catch up; in Arizona, they were certain it was mathematically impossible for either Gingrich or Rick Santorum to do so. Even a late surge or Romney‘s own collapse was unlikely to redraw the outcome. ―You want to get as many people to vote absentee-ballot as you can—it saves money and banks votes,‖ says Rich Beeson, Romney‘s political director. ―So no matter what happens in the last week you have votes in the bank they can‘t take away.‖ Once-meaningful distinctions between early voting, voting-by-mail, and absentee ballots are being erased as 32 states now offer voters

the chance to cast their ballot before Election Day without a justifying excuse (as traditional absentee balloting required). It probably amounts to the most radical change to American voting culture since the abolition of poll taxes . In 2008, one-third of Americans are believed to have voted by a method other than showing up in person at a polling place on the first Tuesday in November, some doing so as early as September. Romney‘s canny and competent handling of these varied early-voting processes this year has helped him accumulate a seemingly insurmountable lead in delegates. He is running the only modern, professional campaign against a field of amateurs gasping to keep up, and nowhere is that advantage more evident than in his mastery of early voting When state authorities searched for ways to update their election procedures after the
chaos of the 2000 recount, many decided to expand the window for voting. Political scientists, campaign consultants, and election administrators speculated about who stood to benefit most. Those who said such reforms would boost democratic participation cited an economic logic: Reducing the inconveniences involved in voting would, in effect, lower its cost and make it appealing to more people. A decade later, there is scant evidence that new opportunities to vote have significantly affected the electorate: The limited research in the area suggests that those who are already predisposed to vote—and make up their minds well in advance—are the most likely to seize on the lower costs to cast a ballot on their own schedule. But early voting has changed electoral economics. In effect, candidates have to administer Election Day operations for a period as long as two months. In general elections, those costs are often saddled by party organizations that can share the benefits across multiple candidates. In primaries, campaigns are on their own, and the expansion of early voting reinforces existing advantages for campaigns that are rich, skilled, and experienced. ―It looks like the better organized campaign does better,‖ says Christopher B. Mann, a former Democratic campaign

Elections DA 55/150

Valley High School Rishi Shah

consultant and party official who ran early-vote programs and now studies them as a University of Miami political scientist. ―If you look at the primaries, it‘s largely to Romney‘s advantage because he has the funding, the infrastructure, and the sophistication to take advantages of things in a way the other candidates couldn‘t.‖

Small swings matter – its super close and next couple months key
Abramowitz, 12
(Alan, Senior Columnist, Center For Politics.org, Prof Poli Sci @ Emory, 5/23, http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/what-does-presidentobama%E2%80%99s-may-approval-rating-tell-us-about-his-reelection-chances/) Whether we base our prediction on President Obama‘s 47% approval rating in the Gallup Poll in early May or a more sophisticat ed forecasting model incorporating economic conditions and the ―time for change‖ factor, it appears likely that we are headed for a very close election in November. Both models make Obama a slight favorite to win a second term. However, the final outcome will depend on the actual performance of the economy and the public‘s evaluation of the president‘s job performance in the month s ahead. Those interested in assessing where the presidential race stands should focus on these two indicators rather than the day-to-day events of the campaign, which tend to dominate media coverage of the election.

Not too early – Obama popularity early in race matters – but can still shift
Silver, 12 (Nate, 5/15, chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models –
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/15/a-30000-foot-view-on-the-presidential-race/)

is still also worth paying attention to Mr. Obama‘s approval rating. These have a history of predicting electoral outcomes at least as closely as head-to-head polls in the early stages of the race,
Although we are getting to the point where these national polls are at least worth a passing glance, it especially for incumbent presidents. Mr. Obama‘s approval ratings have not moved all that much. For the last month or two, th ey have been essentially even. Right now, in the RealClearPolitics average, 48.3 percent of Americans approve of the job that Mr. Obama is doing, and 48.6 percent disapprove. A president can get reelected with numbers like those. Obviously, he can also lose. But the fact that Mr. Obama‘s approval ratings are close to even means that it should not be surprising that the numbers in his matchup against Mr. Romney are getting closer to even, too. I am not a purist who says that candidates and campaigns make no difference. That said, the most reliable benchmark in the past of when presidential results deviate from those predicted by approval ratings is when one of the candidates has a relatively ―extreme‖ ideology, like Barry M. Goldwater or George S. McGovern. Mr. Romney does not qualify as an extremist by the various measures we can look at that attempt to quantify this objectively — neither does he qualify as a moderate. Instead, he is a ―generic Republican,‖ who might run fairly close to the outcomes predicted by Mr. Obama‘s approval ratings. Mr. Romney also went through a period where his favorability ratings were quite poor. However, they have since improved to about even, possibly because his job has been less complicated since the effective end of the Republican primary campaign. It is not uncommon for favorability ratings to shift over the course of a campaign, particularly once the primaries end. (Note – obviously don‟t read this card after august!!!)

Now key – swing voters will decide by end of august
USA Today, 12 (5/7, lexis)
Seven of 10 voters in those states say their minds are firmly made up and won't change. Both campaigns are focused not only on firing up enthusiasm among those core supporters but also winning over the 7% who are undecided and the 24% who are only loosely committed to a candidate. Under the United States' unique Electoral College system, that fraction of voters in a dozen states are likely to decide who can claim the presidency for the next four years. Based on turnout in 2008, these swing voters in the swing states consist of roughly a million people in Virginia; 1.6 million in Ohio; 2.5 million in Florida; 220,000 in New Hampshire -- a total of about 13 million voters out of an expected national turnout of more than 130 million. The next six months, when political spending will likely top $2 billion, will be aimed in large part at winning them over. In the 2008 campaign, almost precisely the same proportion of voters were up for grabs until late August, when it began to decline sharply with the choice of a Republican vice presidential candidate and the political conventions. By Election Day, the number of uncommitted voters nearly disappeared.

Trends from recent elections prove people make up their minds early
Roll Call, 6/9/05 Surveys from 2004 show that voters have become less and less likely to cross party lines when voting for president or Members of Congress. Not only that - these voters were also paying attention, and quite possibly making up their minds, early in the election cycle. Typically, voter interest in elections peaks
in October and November. But according to Autry's data, 63 percent of voters told pollsters in February 2004 that they were "very interested" in the election - 8 and 15 points higher than the percentage who had said they were very interested in October and November of 2000 and 1996, respectively. And in 2004, the degree of interest climbed all the way until Election Day, finishing up at a remarkable 74 percent. While it's possible that a confluence of unusual factors made 2004 unique, both Autry, of the firm Public Opinion Strategies, and Democrat Fred Yang of the firm Garin-Hart-Yang, agreed that early interest in elections has gone hand in hand with increasing party-line voting for federal offices. "Something has happened in the 21st century with President Bush and Democrats," Yang told the conference, sponsored by the University of North Carolina's program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life. "It's harder for Democrats in federal races to win crossover votes from Republicans." Yang added that signs of heightened voter interest in the 2006 midterm elections are already showing up in early polls. "Democrats are saying they'll vote for the Democrat, even if it's someone they've never heard of, and Republicans are saying they'll vote for a Republican, even if it's someone they've never heard of," he said. "This heightened partisan voting is starting at an extremely early stage."

Elections DA 56/150

Valley High School Rishi Shah

Now is key – campaign mode and fundraising
Wolf Blitzer, CNN, Jan 12th 2012, http://situationroom.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/blitzers-blog-pres-obama-in-full-campaignmode/?hpt=sr_mid (BJN)
(CNN) - President Obama is now in full re-election campaign mode. If there was any doubt, just check out the campaign speeches he delivered Wednesday night at three separate fundraising events in Chicago. ―I‘ve said before, I‘m not a perfect man,‖ he told one Chicago group. ―I‘m not a perfect president. But I‘ve promised you this, and I‘ve kept this promise. I will always tell you what I believe. I wil l always tell you where I stand. I will wake up every single day thinking about how I can make this country better, and I will spend every ounce of energy that I have fig hting for you.‖ The audience, of course, erupted in applause. He inspired them. It was vintage 2008 Barack Obama on the campaign trail. If you need further evidence that he already is way deep in campaigning, just check out the amount of money he‘s raised so far, without any Democratic primary challenger. When all the numbers are in on the Republican side, I suspect we will see that Obama raised more money in the last quarter than all the Republican candidates combined. That doesn‘t include the super PACs on the Republican and Democratic sides.

Not too early to predict
Sides, 12 (John, Prof polis ci @ G. Washington, 3/12, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/in-defense-of-presidential-forecastingmodels/?partner=rss&emc=rss) Third, if we look at the models in a different way, they arguably do a good enough job. Say that you just want to know who is going to win the presidential election, not whether this candidate will get 51 percent or 52 percent of the vote. Of the 58 separate predictions that Nate tabulates, 85 percent of them correctly identified the winner — even though most forecasts were made two months or more before the election and even though few of these forecasts actually incorporated trial heat polls from the campaign.

cnn.a total of about 13 million voters out of an expected national turnout of more than 130 million. "The 2012 presidential election likely will be decided by these 15 key states. New Hampshire (4). In the 2008 campaign. Right now. The Wall Street research firm ISI Group. as many have forecasted. as of Oct. including polling. Based on turnout in 2008. Analysts will look to see whether the improvement in the jobless picture seen over the winter will continue or whether it has leveled off. But if you look at the map today. 3. almost precisely the same proportion of voters were up for grabs until late August. field offices." (NOTE – Obviously don‟t read this after august) Swing voters aren‘t locked up – wont decide until late august USA Today. Has he done as well as anyone could realistically have done? Or did he have other priorities —like health care—that seemed to merit more attention than dealing with a worsening economic downturn and dramatically escalating unemployment? With each passing week we will get a new crop of statistics that will provide clues as to how the economy is faring. demographic. Up until now. Since October 10. whether the campaigns and parties will devote resources to the state. http://cookpolitical. Cook Political Report. These are the two most closely watched measures of how Americans see the economy now. New Mexico (5). "Iowa and New Hampshire. 12 (Charlie.they traditionally play that role in presidential politics." Overall. as well as its own reporting and analysis. the number of uncommitted voters nearly disappeared. National Journal. 15 states right now are either toss-ups or lean towards either the president or Romney. Eighty-five electoral votes are up for grabs in those seven states. and now critical to what amounts to a multi-dimensional chess game. Missouri (10). And so that could well happen this time. such as ad spending. 6/12/12 . USA." "It's no surprise that Florida and Ohio are toss-ups and potential 'deciders' . and recession in Europe—preventing that pattern from continuing through the November election? How will the economy perform over the seven months between now and the election? Upcoming economic reports are likely to answer the question about whether Obama‘s presidency will be judged as a success. CNN's Electoral Map will take into account all these factors. Which forecasts turn out to be right will be hugely important both politically and for the economy. Indiana (11). How the economy fares in the coming months will determine which side of that fence these voters decide to come down on.com/node/12306) A far more important factor in determining whether voters decide to renew Obama‘s contract for another four years is whether they see his stewardship of the economy as a success. The next six months. but they are unwilling to pass final judgment. when political spending will likely top $2 billion. 6/4 (http://politicalticker. Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). Some speculate that rapidly rising gasoline prices may ease sooner. 1. and the presence of other high-profile races on the ballot.what a delicious storyline if it all ends in the states where it began.Elections DA 57/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Too Late/Cant Change perception of economic performance Public perception of Obamas economic policy can still swing Cook. it has marked 25 weeks in a row of more positive than negative news and developments.000 in New Hampshire -. 2.break with the winner. much of the spike in gas prices has been offset by unusually low heating bills paid during the fourth-warmest winter on record. Four states currently lean towards Romney: Arizona (11). will this spurt have been more temporary. Voters can still easily switch Ettinger. past election results. Iowa (6). that fraction of voters in a dozen states are likely to decide who can claim the presidency for the next four years. By Election Day. McCain. and staff. The Conferen ce Board on Tuesday will release its latest survey of consumer confidence. Nevada (6). a global economic downturn. Will the narrative be a continuation of the improvement seen since last fall? Or. What is fascinating is the number of plausible scenarios under which one or two of the 'smaller' battlegrounds could prove decisive. meaning if you head into the final weeks with six toss-ups. anchor of "John King. these swing voters in the swing states consist of roughly a million people in Virginia. rather than skyrocketing through the spring and summer. this looks a lot more like Bush vs. but it's a rough mix of several criteria. Both campaigns are focused not only on firing up enthusiasm among those core supporters but also winning over the 7% who are undecided and the 24% who are only loosely committed to a candidate.com/2012/06/04/cnn-electoral-map-seven-states-up-in-the-air-in-fight-for-white-house/) The map currently indicates that seven states are true toss-ups. But it has noted that the positive mix last week was not particularly convincing—a possible sign that the recent upbeat pattern may be breaking up. Under the United States' unique Electoral College system.6 million in Ohio. lexis) Seven of 10 voters in those states say their minds are firmly made up and won't change. Colorado and Virginia are relative newcomers to the 'swing state' role. Florida (29). and economic trends. and the warmest since 1990. the state's political. bumping against headwinds —in the form of high energy prices. 3/26. candidate visits. the March unemployment figures will be reported. "Determining what qualifies as a battleground state is not an exact science. Those states are Colorado (9 electoral votes). On Friday. Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10)." King added. A week from Friday." CNN Political Research Director Robert Yoon says. Voters can break one way or other even in final weeks CNN. Gore than it does Obama vs. worth a total of 183 electoral votes. the Thomson/Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released.and sometimes all . 12 (5/7. will be aimed in large part at winning them over." says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King. for example .blogs.5 million in Florida. and North Carolina (15). 220. and what their expectations are for the coming months. Four states currently lean towards Obama: Michigan (16). "Elections generally break one way late. a fair number of voters sit on the fence when it comes to assessing Obama‘s performance on the economy. had charted 16 out of 20 weeks as having more negative economic news and developments than positive ones. They are disappointed that he didn‘t do better. four or five . when it began to decline sharply with the choice of a Republican vice presidential candidate and the political conventions.

Obama is doing. The history of US politics suggests that. the most reliable benchmark in the past of when presidential results deviate from those predicted by approval ratings is when one of the candidates has a relatively ―extreme‖ ideology. and 48.Elections DA 58/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Yoruam Ettinger. he is a ―generic Republican. incumbents – rather than challengers – win/lose elections. Formerly the Minister for Congressional Affairs to Israel's Embassy in Washington.blogs. But the fact that Mr. especially for incumbent presidents. A president can get re-elected with numbers like those. Instead. Right now. That is sufficient time for unexpected developments – including significant blunders by Obama and Romney – which could determine the outcome of the election either way.3 percent of Americans approve of the job that Mr. Romney does not qualify as an extremist by the various measures we can look at that attempt to quantify this objectively — neither does he qualify as a moderate. in most campaigns. Mr.‖ 6 -12-2012 (http://www. DC. Obama‘s approval ratings. Goldwater or George S. That said. they have since improved to about even.jewishpress. 5/15. like Barry M.‖ who might run fairly close to the outcomes predicted by Mr. November is still five months away. Obama‘s approval ratings are close to even means that it should not be surprising that the numbers in his matchup against Mr. Irrespective of the long-term and severe economic crisis. These have a history of predicting electoral outcomes at least as closely as head-to-head polls in the early stages of the race. possibly because his job has been less complicated since the effective end of the Republican primary campaign. 12 (Nate. Obviously. Obama‘s approval ratings have not moved all that much.6 percent disapprove. they have been essentially even. . it is still also worth paying attention to Mr. I am not a purist who says that candidates and campaigns make no difference. in the RealClearPolitics average. chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. Obama‘s approval rating. too. 2012 Wisconsin election. Romney also went through a period where his favorability ratings were quite poor. McGovern. Romney are getting closer to even.com/indepth/analysis/yoram-ettinger-obamas-steep-uphill-reelection-battle/2012/06/12/) 12.com/2012/05/15/a-30000-foot-view-on-the-presidential-race/) Although we are getting to the point where these national polls are at least worth a passing glance. It is not uncommon for favorability ratings to shift over the course of a campaign. 48. Chairman of Special Projects at the Ariel Center for Policy Research. However.nytimes. he can also lose. Mr. For the last month or two. particularly once the primaries end . Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models http://fivethirtyeight. ―Obama‘s Steep Uphill Reelection Battle. Mr. and regardless of the results of the June 5. Its super close and shifts can still happen Silver.

S.. The Rapid Response media analysis unit formed by Karen Hughes is an obvious example of this kind of attention. frame our arguments. Events such as these are significant moments. political culture remains an asset for public diplomacy . Whatever the case. My main point here is that I think U. and a BA in Politics and Economics from the University of California. as citizens and the media outside of government. Craig Hayden also holds an MA in International Relations from USC. despite remarkable indications at the eleventh hour.S. elections are not perfect. but the extent of their defeat was beyond my expectations. and some commentators noted that Syria was using the event as stunt for its own propaganda efforts. this was often framed as a transition of power carried out by the will of the American people . And. there is a paradigmatic (or at least stated) trend spreading through the State Department to understand that every action. public diplomacy can benefit political dissent. Sure. every foreign service officer. would misunderstand the truth about the policy of the head of the Democratic majority in Congress.S." Credibility equates to the character of the United States. and reflect a cynicism in Arab media over the direction of American politics and possibilities for U. I think that leaves a lot of well-intentioned efforts at improving public diplomacy on the sidelines. if the system was as "broken" as some skeptics claim.S. April -.S. Despite the political competition frame that dominated Arab coverage of the trip. Credibility comes from (among other things) acting like a mature.S. which witnessed a dramatic transfer of political power in the United States. It was democracy in action. Their representation in media concretizes the symbolic communication in public diplomacy. these events are often beyond the control of public diplomacy planners. or whatever you want to call it) is all about. Because of that. This means that those responsible for public diplomacy need to be attentive to the actions that speak for the United States. If the U.icio. we convey the tenets of our democratic institutions and cultural values. Better to wait it out and see who comes next.S. Granted. a public opinion poll conducted on Al-Arabiya. Could this trip demonstrate the pluralistic nature of American politics. the event was heralded as a repudiation of the Bush administration's policies.and to suggest it as no longer viable is to remove a pillar of credibility that public diplomacy (nor the U. how could the results of 2006 have occurred? U. leadership.S. image.us • Subscribe to this feed • Digg This! ELIZABETH GILL LUI on April 13. Credibility does not spring from the schoolyard logic of declining to negotiate for fear of appearing weak. 2007 @ 10:16 am: sorry.S. Elizabeth Lui on April 13. Representing U. In their electioneering. I'm not sure what policy-makers can (or feel inclined to) do about "fixing" American public diplomacy. The world is not stupid. Meanwhile. symbolically asserts that it can indeed be fixed. Fast forward a few months to Speaker Nancy Pelosi‘s controversial visit to Syria in early April of 2007. When we "perform" democracy. For the past two posts. Santa Cruz. and they haven't even seen the bill for Bush's Folly yet! Think Democracy and carrying out the Will of the People. tries to correct itself (rather than appear captive to a political machine. Government or Corporate will replace failed neo-fascist ideologies (nor ultra-left wing ones either) that cause so much disruption around the world.PUBLIC RELATIONS. The election was not depicted as rigged. media worked itself into a momentary (and largely unwarranted) frenzy over whether the trip was appropriate." rather than a significant change in U.S. And the Rapid Response Media Unit response by Karen Hughes? Will they wear Black SWAT Team uniforms and go round beating Arab News Bureaus who criticize the US and Israel? Let's get some realism into this debate and end the rhetoric and window dressing. and every public statement they make carries some form of public diplomacy quotient. or otherwise). While the U. foreign policy as something more than the whim of a President works toward demonstrating the democratic political culture of the United States. what better way to convey the workings of a democracy than an election? One could argue that the 2006 November elections. To resign oneself to conspiratorial depictions of a subverted U. The "public diplomacy machine" is the product of communicative action (both intentional. I would also argue that many other countries have followed similar tactics in dealing with the U. credibility being the most obvious and injurious to future international relations. Much of the coverage on Arab television outlets Al-Jazeerah and Al-Arabiya reflected the frame that the visit was a political maneuver. and the electorate has had enough. policy change. values and institutions in a very direct way. the sphere of public diplomacy needs to expand. My position is unfortunately realistic . PELOSI. Bush won both times by major voter fraud and redrawing the electoral districs thanks to henchman Tom DeLay.S. was demonstrative of U. In addition no amount of Diplomacy. what can we expect if our politics communicates our values? Read Comme nts (4) | Add Your Own Email this • Technorati Links • Add to del." I recognize that many believe that public diplomacy will only start to "improve" once Bush leaves office. More important for public diplomacy. The world.php/newsroom/pdblog_detail/070412_public_relations_pelosi_and_the_us_public_diplomacy_ machine/) For example.S. by trying to sell American values when we ourselves are living up to them.S. PUBLIC DIPLOMACY MACHINE -http://uscpublicdiplomacy.2006 proves Hayden ‘07 (Craig Hayden is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the University of Southern California‘s Center on Public Diplomacy.S. But how we. 2007 @ 10:15 am: Our heinous and misguided neocon driven foreign policy will trump any and every good and valid public diplomacy gesture conceived by the DOS or Madison Avenue. To translate frustration over the current administration's foreign policy is demonstrate faith and the possibility that the U. he worked as a marketing professional for a series of technology-centric firms in California. They impact the ongoing ebb and flow of messages that define and contextualize public diplomacy. symbolic. Craig‘s dissertation at the USC Annenberg School for Communication examined the role of presidential advisors in sustaining the Bush administration's media-driven rhetorical campaign for war against Iraq. and include evidence for how the U. Also. 2007 @ 5:42 am: May I remind the young writer that holding US Elections up as a shining beacon to the world has a major flaw. how did the Pelosi visit function as part of the "public diplomacy machine?" The results are not entirely encouraging.nor can it be duped. it generally did show that competition was possible in the politics of American foreign policy.S.com on April 11 revealed that a large number of people believed Pelosi's visit to Syria was "merely a struggle between the two main parties in the United States. The very same Jihad El-Khazen stated in the April 10 issue of Al-Hayat that: I hope that no Arab. cannot "play to its strengths" what is left for public diplomacy? .) Sure.S. democracy is to undercut the practice of democratic dissent.. I'm not saying that official public diplomacy can solely repair damage to U. and that's the heart of what public diplomacy (or soft power. especially in Syria.as there are few other sources of social capital left to draw upon to shore up the sagging reserves of credibility. and their subsequent representation in crucial foreign publics. What a novel concept! Craig Hayden on April 16.'" Across Arab media outlets.S. If a Mugger is kicking the crap out of a victim on the ground don't expect the victim to be enthusiastic about the tune the mugger is whistling.Elections DA 59/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah AT: Election is Rigged Election not rigged. the Republican candidates propagated the belief that they had nothing to do with President Bush and his 'shipwreck.ARE NOT LIVING UP TO THEM! Alan J Simpson on April 14. responsible nation-state and adhering to the norms and institutions that sustain international "society.S. I've tried to speculate on tangible venues for improving American public diplomacy outside of just saying "nothing will work. AND THE U. policies need to change to help "fix" the image of the U. But then again. 2007 @ 12:08 pm: The problem with wholesale rejection of the current public diplomacy situation is that it solves nothing. image in total) can afford to lose. El-Khazen was reminding his audience that there are less differences between Bush's policies and those of his Democratic opponents than probably imagined. both online and in print. How did the Arab press cover it? Jihad El-Khazen declared in the November 9 edition of the pan-Arab Al-Hayat: "I expected that Bush and the Republicans would lose. If this is true.a severe decline in U. Americans will have to live with the legacy that the current administration has wrought . Previous to his academic studies. policy. U.com/index. While the State Department seems to be "getting" this point – I wonder about the rest of U.S. And that in itself may be constructive for public diplomacy. and counter Arab media portrayals of the Bush administration as an autocratic and ideological regime? Ultimately. this moment was also an event laden with public diplomacy implications. has not crossed some symbolic threshold for foreign audiences that no public diplomacy can ever hope to redress.

org/0904/rossi.http://www. in both instances it can also be argued any undue influence might not had such a dramatic effect since these candidates were generally favored by the public. In both instances criminal elements in cahoots with collaborative members of the political establishment steered these elections to victory. namely losing his home state of Tennessee. However.".spectacle. A number of tactical campaign errors certainly cost him the presidency.‖ Referring to the legendary union tampering of West Virginian votes for the Kennedy presidential election.html) The title of this article harkens thoughts of the Bush-Gore election of 2000. Virus in the System: Ethics and Electronics in the Election Process – The Ethical Spectacle – September 2004 -. Mark. Elections are usually lost by dumb mistakes. if not always politically or practically desirable to certain groups or even the common good. or even farther back in the Truman elections before he became president. Either way dubious elections results in a democracy is still the exception and not the rule. and choosing a decent yet boring running mate Senator Joseph Lieberman. The great majority of American elections are fair and honest. . Freedom is messy. But I am not referring to that fair election which was ultimately Senator Gore‘s to lose and lose he did. distancing himself from Clinton. a serious slugfest hinging on hanging chads and blue-haired Floridians. Some might laugh and say ―it‘s already been done. In the near future elections may be stolen by corporate entities in collaboration with hidden agents of either major political party.not effective Rossi ‘04 (Mark Antony Rossi is a published author of seven books including "Mother Of All Machines: A Bioethics Primer" and recently released "The Intruder Bulletins: The Dark Side of Technology.Elections DA 60/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah No impact to rigging.

Elections DA 61/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

in descending order of advantage: ―being easygoing and likable‖. ―being knowledgeable and experienced enough to be president‖. as well as the Gallup tracking average. they were ―having good ideas for how to improve the economy‖ (by 6 points) and ―changing the business as usual in Washington‖ (by 7 points). The results aren‘t convincing enough to give the advantage to either Romney or Obama. Gallup‘s most recent polling suggests that Obama has received a bit of a boost from the decline in gasoline prices . RealClearPolitics pegged Obama‘s lead at 3. not good news for the president. ―sharing your positions on the issues‖. 12 (Charlie. When asked whether they thought the economy would get better. you can push the ―made no difference‖ group in either direction. 4/26. National Journal. 5/14. Cook Political Report. ―looking out for the middle class‖. Cook Political Report. 38 percent said that it would get better. 1/23. http://www. but hardly in the 7. the situation looks more complicated. 36 percent said they had helped. but Romney led on two of the most impo rtant ones. ―being consistent and standing up for his beliefs‖. and consumer confidence goes up.‖ Obama also had a narrow advantage. or had made no difference at all. When respondents were asked whether they thought Obama‘s p olicies had helped or hurt economic conditions.com.S. Those sound a lot like central tenets of Obama‘s campaign four years ago.7 points. regardless of whether it improves or just bumps along. 49 percent to 42 percent. The economy will determine this election. 49 percent to 43 percent. short of a major international incident. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Presidential elections have many moving parts and can turn on many things. With 61 percent believing that the economic picture will either get worse or stay the same. Respondents were given a choice of 13 positive attributes and asked whether each better describes Obama or Romney. Obviously. Obama‘s NBC/WSJ job rating on handling the eco nomy is 45 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval. and 46 percent said they disapprove.‖ Taken together. the results suggest that Obama‘s reelection should be a slam dunk.org/2012/01/23/public-priorities-deficit-rising-terrorism-slipping/) With the nation‘s economy still struggling and unemployment still high. Economic Issues key and even small perception of changes create big swing Cook. 30 percent said they made no difference. the Gallup tracking poll had the president up by 7 points. the public clearly remains very nervous about the economy—again. the good news for the president is that the respondents associated 10 attributes more with him than with his challenger. conducted by Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff. They are.com/node/12429) Regular readers of this column know that in analyzing the 2012 presidential race. his approval rating bumped up to 50 percent in three consecutive days of Gallup‘s three-day moving averages. conducted among 1. The bump shows just how volatile public attitudes are. If the economy is bouncing along. and ―being honest and straightforward. His advantage was a little less in some of the other surve ys.com/node/12496) It‘s unlikely that same-sex marriage is going to push the economy out of the dominant role in this election. http://cookpolitical. These numbers have fluctuated only slightly since the start of 2009. those markers will serve as validation. ―dealing with issues of concern to women‖. Those numbers are less favorable than his overall approval rating. economy. get worse. and 19 percent predicted that things would get worse. Instead. If the overall economy improves. . So Obama had the advantage on most of the attributes. But the 63 percent who said that Obama‘s policies either made no difference or hurt economic conditions do not bode well for the president. for the week of April 16-22. Overall. it is unlikely that any other issue will displace the economic ones . For April 18-23. but rarely is a single factor more important than the economy when an incumbent is up for reelection. and 33 percent said they had hurt. 12 (Charlie.000 adults from April 13-17. I have been preoccupied—some would say obsessed—with the state and direction of the U. ―being compassionate enough to understand average people‖. though. Not much disparity there. Although Romney had the advantage on only two attributes. 49 percent said they approve of the job that President Obama is doing. But gay marriage was the most discussed issue last week. The most remarkable thing was not President Obama‘s announcement that he would embrace same-sex marriage. National Journal. ―caring about average people‖. or stay about the same over the next 12 months. Pollster reported 2. within the margin of error. particularly when important economic issues are involved.4 percent range that boosted President Reagan‘s 1984 reelection fortunes after the 1982 recession—the public will be in no mood to validate Obama‘s policies and decisions. on ―setting the proper moral tone for the country. supports that view.7 points. even if it wasn‘t exactly premeditated. economic concerns continue to top the public‘s policy agenda for President Obama and Congress. Economy and jobs are the key issue Pew. job creation increases. The poll.Elections DA 62/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Econ Issues Key Only economic issues will matter Cook. 42 percent said it would stay the same. If you focus on the economy. http://cookpolitical. Obama badly needs the country‘s economic performance over the next six months to validate his policies and decisions. Indeed. with growth at a subdued level and unemployment still at or above 8 percent —not the 9 percent of a year ago. 12 (Pew Research Center.2-to7. More than eight-in-ten cite strengthening the economy (86%) and improving the job situation (82%) as top priorities. it was a memo from a very prominent and well-respected Republican pollster suggesting that his party should treat the issue with considerably more caution than it has in the past. All of these findings reinforce the view that the economy will be a very important factor in the election. right? Not necessarily.people-press. That volatility isn‘t likely to change between now and Election Day. pegs Obama‘s approval rating just 1 point higher than the cur rent averages by RealClearPolitics and Huffpost‘s Pollster. Obama‘s lead in the horse race with Mitt Romney was 6 points in the NBC/WSJ poll.

None of the other 20 issues tested in this annual survey rate as a top priority for more than 70% of Americans.Elections DA 63/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Jobs most important econ issue Jobs legislation is most important issue for voters Pew. . Fully 86% say that strengthening the economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress this year.org/2012/01/23/public-priorities-deficit-rising-terrorism-slipping/) As the 2012 State of the Union approaches. and 82% rate improving the job situation as a top priority.people-press. http://www. the public continues to give the highest priority to economic issues. 12 (Pew Research Center. 1/23.

For instance. soldiers being killed in action is a very noticeable impact for the public — but by other measures we might have expected Iraq to have a larger impact: it was more unpopular than the Korean War. some of the variability may also be explained by economic factors that weigh upon voters‘ minds. This election occurred during World War II. Roosevelt booked a solid win. with per capita income growth declining by 8. Perhaps the best-known of these models is the so-called ―Bread and Peace‖ model designed by Douglas Hibbs of the University of Gothenberg.S. And it would have missed the margin in the popular vote by about 8 points on average. Roosevelt performed really. This seems like a healthy state of affairs.S.Elections DA 64/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Thumper . 2020 and so forth to get a better sense for how accurate it really is. But 1948 was a weird year — lots of erratic economic data in the postwar period. is how the model performed from 1952 through 2008: Now. missing Roosevelt‘s vote share by 4 points. incumbency. per-capita disposable income (weighted to place more emphasis on the later years of a president‘s term than the earlier ones). it is based on just two: growth in real. and the model would have expected Franklin Roosevelt to win a landslide victory. much to the Chicago Tribune‘s surprise. chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. but this is easy to adjust for and should make only an extremely minor difference.) The other variable that Mr. and seculars that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 be sufficient and mobilized enough to ensure his re-election in 2012? Or will the Republican Party and its presidential nominee capitalize on a struggling economy and greater mobilization from a conservative base that holds the president in deep disdain? Voter perception matters – its not just the hard economic data Silver. Simple economic variables can account for a little less than half of the variability in election results . Perhaps that‘s a defensible position — U. Nevertheless. there are some signs that the model is not quite as accurate as claimed. because the Korean War resulted in 14 times more U. winning all but two states. really badly in 1948. major scandals. Technically speaking. for example? I dug deep into the bowels of the Census Bureau‘s Web site and discovered data on disposable income growth dating back to the 1920s. Instead. Some models. and the number of military fatalities resulting from U. But I don‘t have that much patience! So here‘s what we can do instead — it‘s a technique that I‘ve applied to other models of this type.-initiated foreign conflicts. Although some other economic measures were decent or good. November. (The latter definition would apply to wars like Iraq or Vietnam — but not to something like the Gulf War or World War II where the U. a seemingly normal year (no depressions. 1968. including factors such as foreign policy successes and failures. Instead. Still. Hibbs originally had to work with — would have missed the incumbent party‘s vote share by just 0. which were outside the period that the model to build its estimates. It would have predicted.org/issues/2011/11/pdf/path_to_270_execsumm. but which are not easily quantified by measures like G.Only on ground econ matters Its not just economic performance – voter perception on economic issues swings key battleground states Teixeira and Halpin.nytimes. fought in during this period was World War II. the average miss has been 2. and the objective reality and voter perception of the economy in key battleground states. 2016. and the model performed better in that year. Hoover did.6 percentage points. A similar problem is apparent in 1932. Hibbs‘s definition. That should have translated. But this is a poor result. again. let‘s plug in 1948: Uh-oh. Truman got 52 percent of the two-party vote and won the election over Thomas Dewey. 11 Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin. a ―good‖ war in which the United States was compelled into action because of Axis hostilities and that therefore would not meet Mr. on the out-of-sample results. Hibbs‘ distinction between good and bad wars is less salient to the American public than we might think. Hibbs‘s formula. in fact. Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models http://fivethirtyeight. the Millennial generation. 1948. according to M r. We can plug in the data from elections prior to 1952. wait to see how this model does in 2012.P. with fairly big misses in 1996 and 2000 but good results in the other years. excluding votes for third parties) for Harry Truman. Hibbs. the proof is the model‘s predictive power. candidate quality. But we shouldn‘t expect any miracles. claim to have much more predictive power than this.8 percentage points. Will the rising electorate of communities of color.D. it‘s not larded down with superfluous varia bles. using economic variables (sometimes along with noneconomic variables) to explain as much as 90 percent of presidential election results. 1960. Center for American Progress. How would the model have performed in 1944? Another bad year for the model.5 percent. Herbert Hoover presided over the biggest economic disaster in United States history. Hibbs‘s formula would have called for him to win just 16 percent of the major-party vote. The 1940 election occurred before the bombing of Pearl Harbor. or roughly 4 points for each of the two major candidates (since a vote for one of them means a vote against the other). There are a lot of things to admire about this model. But 1936 constituted another big problem. to Roosevelt receiving 77 percent of the two-party vote. 1952. Disposab le income growth between 1932 and 1936 was an astounding 8. on average. but he won only 62 percent of the vote rather than 77 percent. really well in 1936. single women. Nevertheless.S. but his actual total of 54 percent of the two-party vote is not particularly close to the model‘s estimate. missing the results by just a point or two on average: There are a couple of common critiques of this model.) Mr. The other half falls into the ―everything else‖ category. The model did really. just a 43 percent share of the two-party vote (that is. much could change between now and then but at the outset of the election campaign it is clear that two large forces will ultimately determine the outcome: the shifting demographic balance of the American electorate. perhaps Mr. according to the formula. 1928. Since then. and since then it has performed acceptably well but not superbly. professionals. controversial social legislation and structural factors like changes in partisanship. http://www. it had about 14 times more effect on Mr. stupid‖ i s a pretty good way to think about presidential elections. Mr. The economic fundamentals clearly do make some difference — quite a bit really. including 2008. the heuristic ―it‘s half the economy and half everything else. but things weren‘t quite that bad. We can. claims to be ab le to explain almost 90 percent of the variance in presidential election results based on these variables alone.S. Using these two variables to forecast the results of the elections of 1952 through 1988 — the dataset that Mr. One is that the way it defines wars is a bit problematic. Hibbs‘s model. and inflation.blogs. Hibbs uses — military casualties — isn‘t pertinent to these years because the only major conflict that the U. and it was quite a bit more expensive. You should be very skeptical of these claims. (The data is annual rather than q uarterly. getting 66 percent of the two-party vote. of course. Income growth was prodigious in these years. fatalities than the Iraq War. 6/3. however. no wars). therefore. Disposable income growth was actually negative in the four years preceding 1948.pdf Obviously. This cute little model would have called the wrong winner in six of the past 25 elections: 1912. Here. Most notably. Hibbs first released forecasts using this model in 1992. was another bad one for the model. The central questions of the election are thus fairly straightforward. Mr. disposable income growth was slow . lose in a landslide.4 p ercent. using data from 1952 through 2008.americanprogress. was responding to another country‘s attack. 11 (Nate.com/2011/06/03/what-do-economic-models-really-tell-us-about-elections/) So we can breathe a sigh of relief.S. How would the model have performed in 1948. and 2000 (although it would have gotten the winner of the popular vote right in that year).

but not much better than our simple G. rather than 3. the economy is bound up with campaigns and elections in may complex ways. make those models better. let me reiterate that this is a result that I find intuitively appealing. ―2012 Scenarios: What if the Economy Heads Back Downhill?‖ http://www. are things lost for the Obama re-election effort? They sure don't help. There is no simple way to separate the total effects of structural forces like the economy and the total effect of the campaign itself. but the answer is no. it would hav e missed the incumbent party‘s vote share by an average of 7. a naive strategy of simply guessing that the incumbent party would win exactly half the vote would have done better. however. missing by an average of 5. Each percentage point rise in income growth translates to a 1.3 points. the coefficient on the growth variable is also quite a bit lower. Co-founder & CEO – Progressive Strategies. The Obama team's shift in messaging toward the Teddy Roosevelt style populism he has exhibited in the last few months is working.6 percent as the original model implied. chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. This type of da ta may be of limited use for predictive purposes. and the fact that it performed so uncannily well from 1952 through 1988 is not a good r eflection of its predictive power. and from 1992 through 2008. That‘s good. Monica Lewinsky mattered. the economy had no effect on election results at all. the model would have performed quite well in 1924. Wars matter.7 points. 12 (John.is what has driven his poll numbers in the right direction.2 percent. it explains almost exactly half the vote. I think Mr. rather than having preferences inferred by a statistical formula — my advice is to look at more rather than fewer pieces of evidence. That is to say. So will the economy (those numbers are getting worse for Mr.blogs. So although I‘ll continue to follow forecasting models and hope that Nate‘s comments. Instead. meaning that the electorate is somewhat less sensitive to economic performance. At the risk of beating a dead horse.html.blogs. as some would have you believe. the Republicans‘ unpopular Medicare bill. Obama). But we should be careful about asserting that there is any particular threshold at which Mr. 6/2. Hibbs‘s model is the best of its kind. http://fivethirtyeight. the model performs quite poorly on outof-sample results. Overall. But the results are not quite baked in.5 percent or even higher would presumably have been good enough to win him another term. In 2012. that clearly seems wrong given the effect it has upon people‘s lives and the media‘s (appropriate) attention to it. Keep the focus firmly on fighting for the middle class. Better candidates will challenge incumbents when the economy makes those incumbents vulnerable. for example.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/) On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election Make no mistake: the higher the unemployment rate in November 2012. But I‘d be just as worried if one or two economic variables explained 90 percent of the results. It‘s also not obvious that Roosevelt should be excluded from the calculus. for the rich campaign of Mitt Romney -.com/2012/03/29/in-defense-of-presidential-forecastingmodels/?partner=rss&emc=rss) But you can‘t disentangle the impact of the economy and the campaign that easily. when Ronald Reagan resoundingly won a second term. suggesting that he had quite a bit of slack. -and-inflation model. the less likely President Obama is to win a second term.huffingtonpost. An unemployment rate of 7.nytimes. Obama would go from favorite to underdog.8 points. Importantly. Its not just hard economics – perception and campaign effects matter Sides. and a median of 4. Prof polis ci @ G. but they will blame the president if they think he is not fighting hard for them while they are suffering through these bonecrunching times for the middle class. that ―no American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7. And factors like the economy often come to matter precisely because they are emphasized in the campaign. Candidates‘ decisions to campaign on the economy will depend on whether they will get credit or take blame for economic conditions. He won re-election in 1936 with an unemployment rate of . the campaign can ―make‖ the forecasting models come true. the relationship between the unemployment rate and a president‘s performance on Election Day is complicated and tenuous.P. Washington.in contrast to the of the rich. and they are well aware that the Republicans in Congress aren't doing anything to help. Historically.‖ That was the unemployment rate in November 1984. he won in a landslide. particularly given that the economic crisis the country is working its way out of now is the most severe since his administration.Elections DA 65/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah enough that the model would have predicted that Hoover would receive 47 percent of the vote and lose the election. above and beyond what can be measured with a single variable based on military causalities. Voter perception matters – shapes electoral effect of hard economic data Silver. September 11 mattered. the bulk of what we can lear n and should understand about elections will not come from forecasting models. In short.com/mike-lux/obama-jobs-2012_b_1289076. or any magic number at which his re-election would either become impossible or a fait accompli. Al Smith. By contrast. If it‘s any consolation. however. Most voters don't blame Obama for the tough times. An article in today‘s Times notes. Core economic variables explain about half of the presidential vote — the rest is up to the candidates and the voters. jj) So if the economy starts moving in the wrong direction because of either or both of these factors. I‘d be worried if. The characteristics of candidates and campaign strategies themselves depend on the economy. To be clear. by the rich. 11 (Nate.5 percentage point rise in the incumbent party‘s vote share. not the modestly improving economic numbers most voters don't feel yet. defeating the Democratic candidate. among others. And if we remove the war causalities variable and just focus on what the model tells us about the economy. it explains about 60 percent — not 90 percent — of the variance in the presidential vote. Here's what the Obama team needs to focus on with these dangers in mind: 1. Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical modelshttp://fivethirtyeight. I am firmly convinced that this message -. It matters that the electorate goes through phases of being relatively more and relatively less partisan. and the death of Osama bin Laden are likely to matter. Watergate mattered. Until we reach the point where the polls become more reliable — the nice thing about polls is that they permit voters to determine for themselves them.nytimes. The fact that parties have nominated candidates as strong as Dwight Eisenhower and as weak as George McGovern — that matters. what matters to Voter economic perception can boost Obama even if economy stays weak Lux 2-20-12 (Mike. 3/12. But there‘s nothing magical about it.D. In the years from 1924 through 1948. or at least truer. If we redo the model using all the data from 1924 through 2008. Reagan won re-election by 18 points.8 points and a median of 4. Huffington Post. things like President Obama‘s unpopular health care bill. as our study of the unemp loyment rate seemed to imply.

Voters will interpret the unemployment rate in different ways. however. Many of these models.8 percent in 1933.2 percent in time for his re-election. In these cases. and their re-election bids were also successful. like Mr. It does not. So does that mean that the unemployment rate should just be ignored and that the news media‘s focus on it is misplaced? No. Mr.com/2011/06/06/the-ten-word-question-that-could-cost-obama-the-election/) I take the middle view here — the fundamentals matter. 11 (nate. the unemployment rate was headed in the right direction: down from 19. which may lead some economists to lower their estimates. the correlation between the unemployment rate and a president‘s electoral performance has been essentially zero. but he won re-election easily. however. Al Gore.blogs. too. which is that the unemployment rate should have some effect on a president‘s re-election chances.3 percent.8 percent by late 2012. and assign the president varying amounts of credit or blame for it. Looking at unemployment in this way — as the rate of change over a president‘s term — is probably the more worthwhile approach. Data for 1 948 onward is on a monthly basis. There are also cases in which the data behaved more intuitively: Jimmy Carter and the elder George Bush all faced high unemployment rates when they lost their re-election bids. there has been no correlation between these variables: Alternatively. Nixon‘s first term. and that was surely a factor in their defeats. in essence. while only annual estimates are available before then. seeing it drop to 7. we can look at the change in the unemployment rate over the course of a presidential term. But those forecasts preceded a bevy of poor economic reports. Voter perception matters – not just economic fundamentals Silver. chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. served a full. Obama took office was 7. seemingly benign changes are made to their assumptions. for instance — can see their performance deteriorate quite substantially if small. the recovery is likely to proceed in fits and starts. besides. will produce a better fit on the historical data — but the relationships may be spurious and their predictive power will sometimes not be as strong as claimed. through chance alone. There are literally thousands of plausible models that one might build. it is also not strong enough to disprove that there is a relationship. Ford in 1976. and applied to different subsets of elections that are deemed to be relevant. I‘ve provided unemployment data for the last century‘s worth of presidential elections. too . But it.nytimes. The unemployment rate fell to 3. private forecasters like Wells Fargo and The Wall Street Journal‗s forecasting panel were anticipating an unemployment rate close to 7. Some of these models. welldesigned models — I like this one. are predicting a very close election — while the consensus view of economists is that although another recession is unlikely. As of last month. Here.9 percent from 5. the year he took office. I think that‘s emphatically the wrong interpretation. 6/2. Obama. But this is an inexact science — more so than either journalists or political scientists tend to acknowledge. is not always reliable. comparing the unemployment rate on Inauguration Day to the one that the president (or the incumbent party‘s candidate) faced on Election Day. The data is not really strong enough to prove there is a relationship — but because there are a relatively limited number of data points. Bush in the Electoral College. using different economic indicators measured in different ways and over different time periods. chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. in Bill Clinton‘s second term — but his vice president. But historically. Clearly. The unemployment rate when Mr. although only barely so: he inherited an unemployment rate of 7. too.8 percent — and he may not follow in his predecessors‘ footsteps by leaving it in a better place than he found it. as did Gerald R. but it‘s quite weak and almost entirely driven by a couple of outlying data points surrounding the Great Depression: Data from after World War II is less noisy — both in terms of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate and the presidential results. This cuts the number of data points down to 11 from 25.nytimes. meanwhile.6 percent. Obama‘s odds will be impaired if his hand contains more deuces and treys than aces and kings — and that. but campaigns do. 6/6.5 percent from Jimmy Carter. which of the several unemployment data series you use — you can get the correlations up a bit higher. 11 (Nate. taken alone or in combination with one another. Even the most thoughtful. and the rules of the game may change from election to election. . This does produce some positive correlation. improve the correlations much. Bush‘s and Dwight D. which presidents were elected or which ones assumed the office through death or resignation. Historically.blogs. But the correlations are not improved any: Another approach is to look only at those cases in which a president. where you define the starting point and endpoint of a president‘s term. Working with data like this gets tricky. But almost no matter what you do — even if you‘re more or less deliberately cherry-picking — they range from zero to fairly weak. This was also true for Reagan. and there is evidence that measures like growth in real disposable income do a better job of predicting election results. The most straightforward application is to compare the unemployment rate to the incumbent party‘s performance in the popular vote. Perhaps if you go through enough iterations of this exercise — which range of years you look at. Eisenhower‘s first terms. It also increased in George W.6 percent. at least. The problem is that whatever signal there is gets filtered through an awful lot of noise. it is entirely permissible to default to common sense. four-year elected term and was seeking a second one. Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models http://fivethirtyeight.Elections DA 66/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah 16. In the chart below. Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models http://fivethirtyeight.9 percentage points over the course of Rich ard M. and again in 1940 with a rate of 14. Its not just about the hard data Silver. For Roosevelt. we ought to be cautious.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/) Some political scientists prefer other economic indicators to the unemployment rate. Consider: The unemployment rate itself is subject to fairly significant measurement error. Obama holds — the different factors that will work for and against him — but our idea of how the hand will play out is quite fuzzy. could not beat Mr. is what weaker data from the labor sector implies for him. Unemployment increased by 1. although the second graph — which evaluates the change in the unemployment rate for elected presidents seeking a second term — is somewhat more promising. We have a good sense for the cards that Mr.

Carter rebounded. In some ways. it‘s remarkable that Mr. Obama and Mr. in fact. and a European-driven recession would probably not be associated with high inflation (although one set off by oil-price instability in the Middle East might). income growth is very slow. 5/30. with polls conducted in late October showing him behind Mr. But most versions of it would be enough to leave Mr. Carter lost his election to Mr. and the consensus of economic forecasters at the time was that conditions would remain recessionary for the six months ahead. The stock market declined in the six months leading up to May 1980 (even without adjusting for inflation). is expected to grow at a below-average rate. For instance. Obama in the manufacturingintensive economies of the Midwest. Still. The numbers drew closer together in the spring. there is really no comparison between Mr. although energy prices have been a periodic threat. Carter. but nowhere near that terrible. Mr. So far. he does not face an acute foreign policy crisis. Carter did in Iran. However. analyzing the trends in the polling and the economic numbers on an almost-daily basis. Reagan had a clear lead. chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. (Growth in retail sales has been more robust. It would probably require an economic shock. peaking around 25 points in polls conducted immediately after the Republican convention in Detroit. Inflation has not been a major problem throughout the economy as a whole. ultimately persisting for only six months. Mr. faces numbers that are improving but perhaps too slowly.nytimes. Mr. Even if that were to occur. likewise. by contrast. Mr. . Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models http://fivethirtyeight. Car ter‘s recession technically ended in August 1980.Elections DA 67/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Thumper – Econ/FoPo Surprises No major surprises coming now – econ and foreign policy are static Silver. Re agan by only 10 points. to put Mr. Some of this was because the recession of 1980 was extremely unusual: it was severe but also brief. but that is a less comprehensive statistic. 12 (Nate. Industrial production has picked up quite a bit and is an economic bright spot. Mr. who faced an economy that was still bottoming out into a severe and broad-based recession. as Mr. at the moment at least. but many economists expect it to slow some in the subsequent months. instead. Carter led Mr. if there were a meltdown in Europe.com/2012/05/30/economically-obama-is-no-jimmy-carter/) The forward-looking data was bad as well. Obama as a clear underdog for re-election. This could happen. of course – for instance. the data this year is mediocre. Reagan by a wide margin in polls in January and February 1980.blogs. and won in a landslide. Reagan by only a point or two on average. Obama in Mr. we will be a little bit more in ―sweat the small stuff‖ mode. Once we release the election model. however. however. By contrast. which could help Mr. the 2012 election cycle has been extremely stable as compared with some other years like 1980. although not in a way that would have been highly visible to consumers and voters at the time. By the summer. Carter‘s. Mr. Obama. Gross domestic product in the final six months of the year. personal consumption expenditures.) Jobs growth has been decent recently. as is the growth in consumption as indicated by the broadest measure of it. Reagan considerably beat his polls on Election Day. Obama‘s situation might still not be as bad as Mr. Then. All of this produced some incredibly volatile polling in 1980. Economists differ greatly on whether this would have relatively mild or more catastrophic effects on the American economy. Carter‘s shoes. however. Mr.

Democrats who hoped that an improving economy would boost the president‘s reelection prospects might be disappointed. of course. National Journal. Certainly.Elections DA 68/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Thumper – Economic Collapse/Recovery Coming No Major Economic Swings before election now – its super close so even small shifts in obama‘s support can determine the outcome Cook. as some people seem to think he has. For unemployment. In the just-released.3 percent for the second quarter. gross domestic product growth is higher and unemployment is lower. http://cookpolitical. . The election. some argue that the dropping jobless rate is more a product of people leaving the potential labor force than of real job creation.) With these economic numbers. but the economic numbers suggest a tightening race. Conseq uently. 2.2 percent. April 10 Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 56 top economists. dropping just one-tenth of a point in the third quarter to 8. but it‘s not much of an improvement.6 percent in the final quarter of the year. the consensus of forecasts calls for tepid growth between now and the election: 2.com/node/12364) If economists‘ consensus is correct. 12 (Charlie. the president‘s approval ratings have risen. 4/12. The current Intrade odds give the president a 61 percent chance of reelection. and 2. (And. fought down to the last couple of points and states.2 percent GDP growth for the just-completed first quarter. the outl ook is considerably below the 3 percent pace of last year‘s fourth quarter. While better than the GDP growth of less than 2 percent in the first three quarters of 2011. But that trajectory might not continue. 2. this year‘s second-quarter forecast is for 8. of course. the same as the reported jobless rate in March. falls in the middle of the fourth quarter. the economy is better today than it was six months ago.4 percent for the third quarter.1 percent and another tenth of a point to 8 percent in the fourth quarter. That‘s better than the 9 -plus percent unemployment in the first nine months of last year. Cook Political Report. Obama is not close to putting this election away. Obama‘s detractors looking for a plunge to seal his fate may be disappoi nted as well.

Cook Political Report. Cook Political Report. and 82% rate improving the job situation as a top priority. Polls show that Obama gets considerably better job-approval ratings on handling foreign policy than on anything else . foreign policy is a good news/bad news proposition. Indeed. The bad news for him is that foreign policy doesn‘t seem to be a driver for many voters. It‘s clearly not your forte. 12 (Charlie. 5/7. the public continues to give the highest priority to economic issues. In keeping with this. National Journal. the public‘s concerns rest more with domestic policy than at any point in the past 15 years. uninformed.com/node/12364) Romney must quickly reverse directions. Foreign Policy Irrelevant – economic issues key Cook. More generally. 12 (Pew Research Center. probably grinding some gears in the process.people-press. For Romney. As of now. 1/23. You sound shrill at best and. just 9% say foreign policy. http://cookpolitical. National Journal. The good news for the president is that the public generally approves of his handling of foreign policy. but Obama‘s fate is less in his own hands than in the economy‘s. defending against terrorism and strengthening the military are given less priority today than over the course of the past decade. The good news is that voters don‘t seem to be voting on foreign policy.org/2012/01/23/public-priorities-deficit-rising-terrorism-slipping/) As the 2012 State of the Union approaches. Public doesn‘t care about foreign policy – only economic issues matter Pew. he would win the election quite comfortably today. http://cookpolitical. if judged on that performance alone. the bad news is that Obama is rated reasonably well on foreign policy.com/node/12467) A second piece of advice for Romney: Shut up about foreign policy. Romney isn‘t going to beat Obama on foreign policy. 12 (Charlie. 81% say Obama should be focused on domestic policy. http://www. None of the other 20 issues tested in this annual survey rate as a top priority for more than 70% of Americans. It will be on the economy . its already priced in and Romney can‘t exploit Cook. Fully 86% say that strengthening the economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress this year. at worst. 4/12.Elections DA 69/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Thumper – Foreign Policy Foreign policy irrelevant – voters don‘t care. their focus is the economy. .

a handful of points ahead of those who approved of both. Health care was rated the No.com/node/12306) Count me among the few who don‘t believe that this week‘s oral arguments before the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. They are disappointed that he didn‘t do better. had charted 16 out of 20 weeks as having more negative economic news and developments than positive ones. Palm Beach Post. A Supreme Court decision is unlikely to change those views of whether the law is good or bad. A far more important factor in determining whether voters decide to renew Obama‘s contract for another four years is whether they see his stewardship of the economy as a success. A majority of those people are reasonably satisfied with whatever they have. But again. and will do far more good than bad. President Obama‘s two-year-old health care law has already been fully litigated in the court of public opinion. Cook Political Report. 12 (Laura. Americans are deeply divided over the law. Analysts will look to see whether the improvement in the jobless picture seen over the winter will continue or whether it has leveled off.‖ and whatever ruling the justices announce. and the health law writer for the American Bar Association. The Conference Board on Tuesday will release its latest survey of consumer confidence. it all goes back to the larger question of how voters see Obama. will be pivotal in determining President Obama‘s fate in November. but they are unwilling to pass final judgment. bumping against headwinds —in the form of high energy prices. 3. and whether he should be reelected. the poll found. the Thomson/Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released. On Friday. A large majority of Americans already have some fo rm of health insurance coverage. Health care ruling not key – several reasons Green. Attitudes toward Obama‘s health care law are already baked into the cake of how people perceive Obama himself. but generally Americans are more likely to be swayed by other issues. some issues have already run their course with the public. The court's ruling is expected to influence some voters. which was rated by just 6 percent as the top issue. Given his role in providing universal health care as governor of Massachusetts. 12 (Laura. however. a global economic downturn.Elections DA 70/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Thumper – Health Care Health care not key and already priced in – perception on economic issues outweighs and can still swing Cook. as many have forecasted. and our current health care system. Washington Bureau. it has marked 25 weeks in a row of more positive than negative news and developments. Congress can regulate the health insurance industry. Health care. and the warmest since 1990. This is unlikely to be a topic that dominates conversations around the water cooler. The Wall Street research firm ISI Group. critics say presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney is uniquely unqualified to hammer Obama if the law is ruled unconstitutional. These attitudes are fairly stable. Notwithstanding the natural tendency for journalists to breathlessly cite everything (and every primary night!) as hugely consequential. Which forecasts turn out to be right will be hugely important both politically and for the economy. How the economy fares in the coming months will determine which side of that fence these voters decide to come down on. or it was badly needed. 12 (Charlie. much of the spike in gas prices has been offset by unusually low heating bills paid during the fourth-warmest winter on record. But it has noted that the positive mix last week was not particularly convincing—a possible sign that the recent upbeat pattern may be breaking up. Similarly. under its commerce clause powers. and recession in Europe—preventing that pattern from continuing through the November election? How will the economy perform over the seven months between now and the election? Upcoming economic reports are likely to answer the question about whether Obama‘s presidency will be judged as a success. A week from Friday. Some speculate that rapidly rising gasoline prices may ease sooner. The economy (53 percent) and federal budget deficit (20 percent) dwarfed health care as an important issue. These are the two most closely watched measures of how Americans see the economy now. Congress is permitted by the Constitution to regulate commerce . did outscore the war in Afghanistan. while 30 percent wanted the whole law struck down. an extremely high percentage of those who approve of the law also approve of him. Washington Bureau. Since October 10. Americans vote with their pocketbooks. Another 43 percent thought some of the law's provisions should be overturned. his performance. National Journal. Has he done as well as anyone could realistically have done? Or did he have other priorities—like health care—that seemed to merit more attention than dealing with a worsening economic downturn and dramatically escalating unemployment? With each passing week we will get a new crop of statistics that will provide clues as to how the economy is faring. though imperfect. 3/26. lexis) "If the law is not upheld. Obamacare has become a political Rorschach test: People read into it what they want to." said Elliott Pollack. as of Oct. 6/6. rather than skyrocketing through the spring and summer. 1 issue by only 11 percent of respondents. grocery aisle. Their votes in November certainly aren‘t hanging in the balance. with a split and very close decision: A plurality think it and the individual mandate were bad. Right now. aka ―Obamacare. The law‘s enactment was either a dang erous overreach that would destroy liberty. and what their expectations are for the coming months. Palm Beach Post. a fair number of voters sit on the fence when it comes to assessing Obama‘s performance on the economy. http://cookpolitical. Up until now. 6/6. The few who don‘t have opinions are more likely to be swayed by other factors. free enterprise. lexis) It's difficult to predict whether voters will switch sides in the presidential election based on the court's ruling. Will the narrative be a continuation of the improvement seen since last fall? Or. or backyard fence. An extremely high percentage of those who disapprove of the law also disapprove of him. The court must decide whether. Court will uphold but issue narrow ruling that blunts conservative backlash Green. A CNN poll taken just days before the oral arguments in March found that 23 percent of those surveyed wanted the court to uphold the law in its entirety. then it's back to the drawing boards at a time when our health care system is really in serious danger of imploding. will this spurt have been more temporary. a lawyer specializing in health care at Pullman & Comley in Connecticut. the March unemployment figures will be reported.

as it did in Bush v. by not buying insurance. they are passing on costs to other Americans. it could order them to buy GM. on reflection. "I believe that. Jarvis said. (the court will find that) health care is an interstate activity. they are still engaging in commerce." he said. The law's supporters say that health care is unique because virtually all Americans will need it at some point. and if they become ill without it. Gore. to prop up the American auto company. given the massive nature of the problem. The state of health care in America could drive the court to issue a one-off opinion. Jarvis said.S. Senior U. and that fact that Congress has already played such a large role in the health care problem.Elections DA 71/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah between the states. Pollack said. and struck it down. Issuing an opinion that specifically says it has no bearing on any other case could potentially blunt that point and appeal to conservatives who believe there must be checks on Congress' power. Thus. . Opponents of the health care law have warned that if Congress can force people to buy insurance. District Judge Roger Vinson of Florida famously worried that the health care law could set the stage for Congress to require Americans to purchase broccoli. but critics of the law say Americans who are not buying insurance are not engaging in commerce. The court said that its 5-4 decision to stop a statewide recount in Florida after the 2000 presidential election should not serve as a precedent. Congress has successfully waded into health care with the Medicare and Medicaid programs.

12 cents below the $3.‖ he said. allies also share this view. intelligence and military officials agree that Iran has suspended its nuclear-weapons program. whether prices will continue to drop in the coming months or stay relatively high until Election Day. a unilateral attack on Iran unless he is convinced that Iran is on the cusp of developing a nuclearweapons capability. now is the time to let our increased pressure sink in. by driving up the price of oil. top Israeli and U. and this July – thanks to our diplomatic coordination – a European ban on Iranian oil imports will take hold. The growing consensus that Iran is no longer actively developing nuclear weapons and that the Persian nation is facing increased economic hardship—with an embargo slated to begin on July 1—has lessened fears of an imminent attack on Iran.com/whitehouse/obama-plays-hawk-in-chief-on-iran-20120304 But after delivering those more martial pledges.S. such talk has only benefited the Iranian government. For the sake of Israel‘s security. National Journal. though.93 of a month ago.com/node/12454) According to The New York Times. other countries in the region would immediately go on the market to acquire their own nuclear capabilities from Pakistan or elsewhere. notably Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. It‘s just unclear whether the odds have declined enough to create a peace dividend in the form of lower oil and gasoline prices in the next six months. We don‘t know.nationaljournal. 3-4-2012 http://www. the threat of major military action in the Middle East before November 6 is less likely than it was just a few months ago. and the peace and security of the world. 5/7. The American Automobile Association‘s latest Daily Fuel Gauge Report indicates that the national average for regular-grade gasoline is $3. for the recent drop in oil prices. The insiders say that a knee-jerk reaction to protect Israel wouldn‘t motivate Obama.‖ Obama laid out a timetable for obtaining a diplomatic commitment from Iran to negotiate away its nuclear program that seemed to take him well beyond November . which they depend upon to fund their nuclear program. Over the last few weeks.81 a gallon. The perceived threat of war is lower. or support. It is also 13 cents below the average of a year ago. http://cookpolitical. In the past two weeks. ―Sanctions are continuing to increase. 12 (Charlie. and to sustain the broad international coalition that we have built. Some well-placed foreign-policy officials of close U. These officials‘ statements contrast starkly with those of Israel‘s political leaders. Obama then tried to tamp down what he called ―loose talk of war. triggering an arms race on his watch that he would consider abhorrent and unacceptable.Elections DA 72/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Thumper – Iran strikes Iran Strikes won‘t be October surprise – several reasons Cook. The president. oil production and diminished demand. America‘s security. Foreign-policy insiders don‘t think that Obama will participate in. they believe. current and very recent Israel intelligence and military officials have publicly made these points . They believe that Iran unquestionably had an active program but some time ago stopped short of taking advanced steps to create weapons. is worried that if Iran developed a nuclear-weapons capability. .S. Cook Political Report. helping to bring gas prices down some. now is not the time for bluster. This is one reason. for now. The combination of the fourth-warmest winter on record and historically low natural-gas prices has significantly diminished home-heating costs for many Americans this year. and that has worked to offset spiking gasoline prices during the winter months. who see Iran‘s nuclear capability as an immediate and existential threat to their country.S. No Strikes before the election National Journal Subscriber. along with rising Saudi and domestic U. But they are equally certain that he would act if intelligence showed that capability is drawing near. So.

the House has rejected it. it is becoming hard to see how a spate of deals will be done. While the Senate has passed a bipartisan transportation bill. where 57 percent of the undergraduates have federal student loans. LP/Gas. 12 (Lisa. had declared 2012 legislation more or less finished. 12 Jennifer. ―This is a major concern for us and our students. 3/1. With both chambers set to recess for a Fourth of July holiday. ‖ No legislation before election now Bontempo.html) As Recess Nears. it will mean a significant increase in federal revenue and a return to higher tax rates for millions of Americans. Republican of Alabama. energy lobbyist. including the expiration of all Bush-era tax cuts. ―I think it all depends now on what happens with the election. said on Twitter that the House would be voting ―well after Harry Reid‘s bedtime. Senator Harry Reid. the d irector of student financial aid at Ohio State University.2 trillion over 10 years. one replete with expiring tax provisions and onerous budget cuts that are increasingly becoming known as the ―fiscal cliff. ―There are an awful lot of red states that need transportation funding.‖ In New Hampshire. and highway financing will again be in jeopardy. 6/9. Republican of Ohio.‖ Over in the House. This is an election year. Little Hope for Breaking Partisan Impasse They are the sort of bills that. members of both parties agree on the essential details. Democrat of Nevada. expect to see stopgap funding bills this fall for fiscal year 2013 since it's unlikely Congress will complete its regular annual appropriations bills before it leaves for elections. it seems unlikely that all or even any of these stalled measures will be enacted before the July 4th recess — an ominous sign for the much harder work of preventing an entire fiscal unraveling at the end of the year. once upon a time in Washington. The government is already funded through October. when two important programs will expire if Republicans and Democrats cannot find a way to compromise on t hem.nytimes. on top of the House being out all of next week and senators once again racing for the region‘s airports on Thursday afternoon. said Cliff Sinnott. The House bill has provisions for the next phase of the Keystone XL pipeline and a measure concerning coal ash. Because funding issues are one of the biggest divides between the parties. ―said Senator Richard C. and I would hope that everyone acts like adults and we do the work we need to d o. hinted Thursday that the highway bill wou ld remain unresolved. the executive director of the Rockingham Planning Commission.Elections DA 73/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Thumper – X legislation Nothing will pass before election now Steinhauer. Reid proposed two ways to shore up private pensions and generate more tax revenues as a means to pay for the loan rate extension. . Democrat of New Hampshire. Bureau Chief. Simi larly. Election-year agendas designed to exploit political advantage will be dead on arrival : Even if the House's Republican majority passes legislation. Half of this must come from the Defense Department. lexis) In addition. Absent such action.‖ Ms. And Speaker John A. and not many things happen in an election year.‖ Ouch. one that protects women from domestic violence. the two parties are at an impasse on a formerly benign measure that has routinely passed with near unanimous bipartisan support. because it does not offer the streamlining and program consolidation Republicans seek. While there seemed to be some signs of movement. and that a sixmonth extension might be in the offing. Members of Congress are increasingly worried about the lame-duck session after the election. the majority leader. ―There is frustration among a bipartisan group.com/2012/06/09/us/politics/congressional-memo-as-recess-nears-little-hope-for-breaking-partisan-impasse. But in this Congressional climate.‖ In the case of each piece of legislation. Boehner. millions of college students will see the interest rates on their federally subsidized loans double to 6. it will face a presidential veto and/or not be able to pass the Democratic majority in the Senate. took to the Senate floor to berate Mr. Cantor. Crisis looms. And I ha te to say that because the fact is we have the responsibility to get our work done and we need to get it done. the debt ceiling agreement of August 2011 put in place across-the-board cuts for nearly all federal spending of about $1. ―These things should be pretty easy. What makes this even more intriguing is the fact that several major issues must be dealt with before the end of 2012.000 in debt. ―The Tea Party is holding up a major transportation bill. NYT. sections of an expansion of Interstate 93 have already been delayed because the state waited to issue bonds because of uncertainty over a clear revenue stream from Washington. something the GOP and many Democrats have vowed to do. and the House has its own version that removes Senate provisions like those that would subject non-Indian suspects of domestic violence to prosecution before tribal courts for crimes allegedly committed on reservations and expand the number of temporary visas for illegal immigrant victims of domestic violence. come July 1. Expect Congress to try to act on the Bush tax cuts as well as to try and reverse or change the automatic spending cuts. Since January. ―Our students on average are graduating with $20. Shaheen said. This bill that once passed by voice vote seems hopelessly stalled. but the parties are tied in knots over how to cover the $6 billion price tag for doing so. ―It‘s always frustrating. ―that‘s part of the legislative life up here — always has been. because crisis is all Washington can do these days. particularly after an article on Politico suggested that Representative Eric Cantor. no deal seemed in the immediate offing. the Senate passed a Violence Against Women Act. The two sides appear at loggerheads. the Virginia Republican and majority leader.‖ said Diane Stemper. a majority of members agree that student loan rates should not increase. The summer impasse also presages tough days ahead for both parties charged with resolving far more controversial tax and spending matters before the end of the year. If they are not renewed. Republican of Missouri. Shelby.‖ s aid Representative Jo Ann Emerson. The measure that helps protect women would leave uncertainty about future funding for its programs.8 percent. the Republican whip. Republicans and Democrats have volleyed some different ideas back and forth over the last week — late Thursday. there are few internal congressional deadlines that would force Congress to work together to pass legislation before the elections. The mood on Capitol Hill was sizzling with partisan rancor this week. and last summer's deal has set the budget funding levels for the next fiscal year . for saying ―out loud what every Republican on Capitol Hill has been thinking all along — they care more about winning elections than creating jobs.‖ said Senator Jeanne Shaheen. passed easily: money for highways and students.‖ Even more remarkably. With the exception of a handful of very conservative Republicans in both chambers. protection for battered women. too. Also. the 10-month extension of the payroll tax cut has passed Congress. including 13 years with NPGA. http://www. Mr.‖ But there is also a policy precipice at the end of June. although there was no actual quotation in the article to point to. The failure of Congress to reach agreement has serious implications for road projects. families with college-age children and women who use shelters and other legal services. a spokeswoman for Representative Kevin McCarthy of California.

Elections DA 74/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

and agree that we should require a super majority of two-thirds to approve new spending by a 57 to 36 percent margin.com/summaries/independents-supportconservative-policies-in-health-care-energy-and-fiscal-issues) With Independent voters siding overwhelmingly with Republican voters again in our latest survey. These voters agree by a 54 to 37 percent margin that we should adopt a balanced budget amendment because ―it is the only way we will instill some fiscal discipline in politicians and stop them from bankrupting the country. 7/7.‖ Independents agree that the health care law should be repealed by a 52 to 39 percent margin. Resurgent Republic. president of North Star Opinion Research. Voter concern about deficits is also evident in support for a balanced budget amendment and a constitutional convention to pass a balanced budget amendment. Resurgent Republic.‖ Voters agree that ―we should cut the corporate income tax rate from 40 to 25 percent to stimulate job growth in the private sector‖ . energy. North Star partners with Resurgent Republic to conduct surveys and focus groups on popular issues and trends that help shape public debate over the proper role of government. Whit Ayres. voters agree that we should ―keep the capital gains tax rate at 15 percent where it is today. In fact. including Republicans by 78 to 20 percent and Independents by 58 to 35 percent. North Star partners with Resurgent Republic to conduct surveys and focus groups on popular issues and trends that help shape public debate over the proper role of government. compared to a 77 to 21 percent margin among Republicans. Voters agree that offshore drilling should continue by a 56 to 37 percent margin. Only Democrats want to spend more. 11 (North Star Opinion Research. co-founded Resurgent Republic with former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie and Impacto Group CEO Leslie Sanchez. 2.Fiscal discipline is top issue for independent swing voters and they don‘t trust federal investments so there‘s no perception of benefit NSOR. and stop bankrupting the country and mortgaging our children's future.‖ Independents agree that we should freeze federal spending for five years by a 52 to 35 percent margin. Our link outweighs for independent swing voters NSOR. Dr. president of North Star Opinion Research. and ensure that the rich pay their fair share. This survey also finds that predictions of increased support for the health care bill once voters learned more about it have proved inaccurate. even against a counterargument that ―freezing total federal spending at 2010 levels for five years is irresponsible. 10 (North Star Opinion Research. they agree that a spending freeze is a good idea by a 54 to 38 percent margin. http://www. (Democrats oppose any new offshore wells by a 50 to 44 percent margin). That would require either not paying guaranteed benefits like Social Security and Medicare. Dr.‖ by a 54 to 38 percent margin.‖ despite a counterargument that a balanced budget ―could force draconian cuts in Medicare and national defense. Our link outweighs perception of economic benefits for swing voters NSOR. 7/7. a majority of Americans continues to believe that the federal government should be "spending less to reduce the deficit" rather than "spending more to help the economy recover. starting with the passage of the stimulus package last spring.‖ over the argument that letting the ―Bush tax cuts on capital gains expire…would raise the tax rate on capital gains from 15 to 20 percent. Likely voters say the federal government should freeze spending for five years.com/summaries/independents-supportconservative-policies-in-health-care-energy-and-fiscal-issues) Fiscal Issues 1. conservative and market-oriented policies now consistently trump the liberal and government-oriented policies pursued by President Obama and the Democrats in Congress.resurgentrepublic. Voters support extending the capital gains tax cut and cutting corporate taxes.‖ Voters also agree that state legislatures should call for a convention to adopt a balanced budget amendment by a 46 to 3 9 percent margin. co-founded Resurgent Republic with former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie and Impacto Group CEO Leslie Sanchez. 10 (North Star Opinion Research. Voters support an argument urging repeal of the new health care reform law by a 53 to 41 percent margin.com/summaries/independents-supportconservative-policies-in-health-care-energy-and-fiscal-issues) As shown repeatedly in past Resurgent Republic surveys. Whit Ayres. Congressman A says freezing total federal spending at 2010 levels for five years is irresponsible. Congressman B says we should freeze total federal spending at 2010 levels for the next five years. or making drastic cuts in the defense budget. even when juxtaposed against a strong populist message that ―we should stand up to the insurance companies. co-founded Resurgent Republic with former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie and Impacto Group CEO Leslie Sanchez. are at the vanguard of Independent dissatisfaction with Congress. including a 56 to 36 percent margin among Independents and a 71 to 24 percent margin among Republicans. not give in to them. and fiscal issues – conservative policies are more popular than liberal ones." Voters overall want the federal government to spend less by 54 to 40 percent.resurgentrepublic. and this survey shows Independents continue to oppose new spending and support corporate and capital gains tax cuts.Elections DA 75/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Independents Key Our link outweighs for swing voters . http://www. Democrats oppose repealing the law by a 61 to 33 percent margin. including a 52 to 35 percent margin among Independents. Dr. and hurt the government‘s ability to respond to emergencies like 9-11. which would provide critically needed re venue. voters overall agree that ―we should freeze total federal spending at 2010 levels for the next five years. By funding only the top priorities. Raising capital gains taxes now would hurt economic growth at a time when the economy desperately needs to create more jobs. 11/8. president of North Star Opinion Research. North Star partners with Resurgent Republic to conduct surveys and focus groups on popular issues and trends that help shape public debate over the proper role of government. By a 54 to 40 percent margin.resurgentrepublic. 3. Fiscal issues. Even when voters are given a counterargument that a spending freeze would mean deciding between cutting benefits or defense spending. or making drastic cuts in the defense budget. http://www. Resurgent Republic. Whit Ayres. we will get the budget deficit back under control. by 63 to 30 percent. In three key policy areas – health care. That would require either not paying guaranteed benefits like Social Security and Medicare.

Federal money should support the best possible education for a child. when presented with these arguments: Congressman A says we need the best trained people teaching in our public schools. 2. while nearly half pay none. Many mid-career professionals could make superb teachers. The Obama Administration‘s policy choices have created very fertile ground for conservative alternatives this fall. Congressman B says federal government has no business setting national education standards. that teacher pay should not be tied to teacher performance. the argument against alternative certification draws majority support. Education is a state and local responsibility. voters agree that the federal government should not set national education standards by a narrow 49 to 47 percent margin. All teachers should be required to complete teacher training classes. voters agree that it is bad for the country if half the population pays all the income taxes by a 65 to 28 percent margin. Our research has found mixed responses to questions focused on the fact that the highest earning 53 percent of Americans pay all income taxes. Voters have a middle-of-the-road attitude when it comes to education. but also seem ready to embrace conservative policies. Education 1. We should not take funding away from struggling public schools to subsidize private education. Voters also oppose tying teacher pay to performance by a 51 to 42 percent margin (47 to 45 percent among Independents). Congressman B says it is bad for the country if half the population pays all the income taxes and half pays nothing. voters were skeptical that was the case. private. Conclusion Voters seem not only to be rejecting big government policies in response to the actions of the Obama Administration and the Democratic Congress. Voters agree that federal education dollars should be spent exclusively in public schools by a 50 to 47 percent margin when presented with these arguments: Congressman A says federal education dollars should go exclusively to public schools. 4. and the states are best able to meet the needs of their own students. Voters narrowly agree that federal education dollars should be spent exclusively on public schools. Only with national standards will we be able to ensure a world-class education for our students. . 55 to 40 percent. or parochial. For example. Every American citizen should contribute at least something to support the federal government. with arguments on either side splitting the electorate. That movement is driven by Independents.‖ Fi nally. voters indicate some questions about the shrinking tax base. Congressman B says federal education dollars should follow the student when parents move them from failing public schools. ―given the many factors that affect student achievement like the home environment. In focus groups. This survey framed the issue more in terms of fairness: Congressman A says it is good for the country if the poorest half of Americans pays no income taxes. and it makes no sense to require them to take a full curriculum of teacher training classes. Congressman B says we should recruit our most talented people to teach in public schools. even when presented with information that tax credits eliminate the tax liabilities for many tax filers. (51 to 44 percent among Independents) given these statements: Congressman A says we need national education standards that are tougher than those in other countries. whether public. In that context. Those who can best afford to pay should carry most of the burden of funding the federal government. who have been moving away from liberal policy choices for more than a year. In contrast to focus group findings. Just because someone knows a lot about a field does not mean they will be an effective teacher.Elections DA 76/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah over ―cutting corporate taxes is a giveaway to the rich which would increase the deficit at the worst possible time‖ by a 50 to 43 percent margin. and that all teachers should be required to complete teacher training classes.

Abramowitz came to the same conclusion as did I in my Third Way report: that independent partisans behave much like their more partisan peers in a given election. both panel series show that partisan loyalty is weakest among weak. Among Republicans. or even greater than 20%? Suddenly. Of those who voted for a Democrat in the 1992 House elections. what share of the folks who voted Democratic in 1992 voted Republican in 1994 or 1996? What share of folks voting Republican in 2000 voted Democrat in 2002 and 2004? As I am interested in two-party vote shares. Mary‘s College of Maryland.Elections DA 77/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah --A2: ―There‘s Not Enough‖ Swing Voters key – contrary claims based on flawed studies Eberly. The Swing Vote. I limited my study to only those who voted for one of the two parties in each of the elections covered. For my research. I placed the number at approximately 25% of the electorate. That‘s something a nonpanel series could not account for. winning and maintaining the support of that 20% is crucial. The study suggested that during a given election period independent partisans are as loyal to party as their weak partisan peers. In 2002 and 2004. 12 Todd Eberly. In my research for Third Way. that voter is an independent voter. 11% voted Democrat in 2002 and 21% voted Democrat in 2004. I researched partisan loyalty by examining House elections. Much is made of surveys by Gallup and Pew that suggest that a plurality of voters are independents — perhaps as much as 40%. a voter who switches his or her partisan vote choice from one election cycle to the next is not a loyal partisan — rather. 46% of those who identified as an independent Democrat in 2000 voted Republican. In 2002. which is a number also endorsed by Linda Killian in her book. 16% voted Republican in 2002 and 21% voted Republican in 2004. Based on the two-party vote shares in each election. 2002 and 2004) compared to their strength of partisanship in 2000. But so too are arguments that independent voters make up less than 10% of the electorate. winning a majority of independent voters becomes more important. This is simply incorrect. weak or independent partisans (leaners). The overall share was closer to 23% between 1992 and 1996. I wanted to focus on estimating the number of true independent voters in the electorate. because it allows one to study multiple elections across a relatively short timeframe. but independent partisans were more volatile — especially independent Democrats. Alan Abramowitz examined the 2008-2009 panel study and compared the partisan loyalty and partisan vote choice of respondents in the 2008 presidential election. I compared the partisan voting loyalty of Democrats and Republicans by looking at their partisan vote choice across three House elections (2000. I selected the panel study for a simple reason: It‘s one of the few studies available that tracked the same group of voters across multiple elections. That‘s important. While roughly 90% of strong partisans voted the party line in 2000. Both panel series show that partisan loyalty declines over time. 11 and the subsequent War on Terror made that time period unique and therefore unrepresentative. When looking at the more recent era. the 2008-2009 panel survey does not allow one to follow partisanship or partisan loyalty across multiple elections. In other words. 12% voted for a Democrat in 1994 and 21% voted for a Democrat in 1996. approximately a quarter of weak and independent partisans crossed party lines that year. I used the 2000-2004 panel study conducted by the American National Election Studies (ANES). nearly 19% of those voting in 1992 and 1994 changed their partisan vote choice. I also found that independent partisans were far more likely to switch their partisan identification over time — so 2000‘s independent Democrat could well be 2004‘s independent Republican.org. Consistent with the findings of the Third Way report. I examined whether or not leaners are indeed independent. Among Republicans. Having already demonstrated that leaners are less loyal to party over time. The stability of a partisan coalition is dependent upon sustained loyalty across elections. a political science professor at St. Survey respondents were classified as being strong. To address concerns about the 2000-2004 data. but roughly 20% of the voting electorate are not loyal partisans (and that share would grow if I expanded my study to include folks who opted to not vote — as non-voters could hardly be considered loyal partisans). The share was 38% in 2004. I compared the 1994 and 1996 as well as the 2002 and 2004 partisan vote choice to the choice made in 1992 and 2000 respectively. Additionally. Unfortunately. . As such it is not a useful data source for the study of partisan loyalty and the presence of independent voters. strong and weak partisans held steady at roughly 90% and 75% loyalty. of those who voted for a Democrat in the 2000 House elections. Unfortunately there is no other comparable data set exploring the same respondents across multiple elections. My findings have been criticized largely based on my selection of the 2000-2004 data series. 25% opted to vote Republican in 1994 and 24% opted to vote Republican in 1996. 5/12/12 But what if the number of independent voters is greater than 10%. I found that weak and independent partisans are less loyal to party in the short term and especially across time. Center For Politics. Such snapshots would be fine if partisanship were permanent and not subject to change. Some contend that the events of Sept. Most studies of voting and partisanship capture only a snapshot of a point in time and allow researchers to measure partisanship only during a given election cycle. and that Democratic voters are less loyal than Republican voters. but especially among independent. I conducted additional analyses with that data source and with the 1992-1997 panel survey by ANES. In a recent post challenging the findings contained in the Third Way report. That is very much the view of partisanship taken by those who consider independent voters to be a myth. In a recent report written for the centrist Democratic organization Third Way. To me. In an era of closely matched political parties and relatively narrow two-party vote shares. but that loyalty wanes over time. Based on my study for Third Way. partisans (most defections came from independent partisans).

As a result. Like the Jeremiah Wright ad campaign. and they‘re generally skeptical about the messages that they see on TV. locked up the nomination well before the end of the primaries. This time it‘s a film being made by the conservative writer Dinesh D‘Souza. the Republican contest turned out the way most political experts expected it to from the beginning: The candidate with the broadest support from Republican voters and the most endorsements by GOP officeholders. Center For Politics. . But the patriarch of the family that owns the Cubs. And of course. so far at least. the net impact of all of this advertising is likely to be minimal. 12 (Alan. Moreover. according to most recent polls. These undecided voters are much less interested in the presidential election than those who have already chosen sides. the Cubs are mired in last place in the National League ‘s Central Division with one of the worst records in Major League Baseball.Elections DA 78/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Fundraising key Campaign contributions not key – multiple reasons Abramowitz. But despite the clever messaging. The airwaves in the eight or 10 states that will decide the outcome of the 2012 presidential election will soon be saturated with ads supporting and opposing Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. all aimed at persuading a small group of undecided voters — less than 10%. misleading and downright silly by prominent conservative commentators. He is one of a small but growing group of conservative billionaires who have taken advantage of lax campaign finance rules reinforced by recent Supreme Court decisions to pour millions of dollars into the 2012 presidential campaign. Another billionaire. Rove has already launched a multi-million dollar ad campaign in a number of swing states attacking the President‘s economic record by highlighting the continued suffering of ordinary Americans more than three years after Obama took office. labor unions.centerforpolitics. So what can we expect from all of the spending by SuperPACs and their billionaire donors in the general election? No doubt much of it will be most on negative ads attacking other Republican candidates. probably had wasted on negative advertising campaigns and propaganda like the aborted Jeremiah Wright ads or the Obama as anti-colonial Kenyan film. undecided voters are not stupid. It turns out that Ricketts is providing majo r financial support for another anti-Obama venture. was preparing to spend $10 million on an advertising campaign reminding voters in battleground states about Obama‘s relationship with fiery Chicago pastor Jeremiah Wright. liberal and conservative organizations and wealthy individuals.org/crystalball/articles/buying-apresidential-election-its-not-as-easy-as-you-think/ Buying a Presidential Election? It‘s Not as Easy as You Think It looks like it‘s going to be another tough season for long-suffering fans of the Chicago Cubs. Senior Columnist. Two months into the 2012 baseball season. In the end. Romney himself ben efited from millions of dollars donated to his own SuperPAC. the Rove Super PAC‘s anti -Obama campaign is also likely to have little or no impact on the outcome of the election. All of the millions of dollars spent by billionaire-funded SuperPACS. attacking the president for an anti -colonial worldview that he supposedly inherited from his Kenyan father. of course. It seems that he‘s been busy with another major project — stopping Barack Obama from winning a second term in the White House. After stories a bout the proposed ad campaign appeared in the media. Such messages appeal mainly to a small group of conservatives who don‘t need to be convinced to vote against Barack Obama. it was almost universally panned by political commentators on the right as well as the left. When the ads come on. One might simply dismiss Joe Ricketts‘ behavior as the quixotic quest of a lone wolf with more money than he knows what to do with. But that didn‘t mean that he was giving up on his goal of defeating President Obama. Mitt Romney. and Ricketts announced that he would not be funding it. billionaire investor Joe Ricketts. Michigan and Wisconsin. but there are fewer of them and. D‘Souza‘s line o f attack has been criticized as inaccurate. Republican campaign guru Karl Rove has his own Super PAC that has raised millions of dollars from a relatively small number of wealthy conservative donors. they generally ignore them. But not all of those ru nning these SuperPACs are political amateurs or ideologues. party organizations. http://www. 5/31. A few weeks ago it was revealed that Ricketts. gave several million dollars to a SuperPAC supporting Rick Santorum. billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson almost single-handedly kept Newt Gingrich‘s floundering campaign afloat for several months by donating tens of millions of dollars to a pro-Gingrich Super PAC. Rove‘s message is m uch more likely to resonate with swing voters in key battleground states such as Ohio. including the Washington Post‘s George Will. helping the former Pennsylvania senator emerge as Mitt Romney‘s main challenger for the GOP nomination. During the recent Republican primary campaign. they have been much less willing to open their wallets to help reelect the president. much of it from a handful of extremely wealthy supporters. But Ricketts‘ actions are far from unique. financial investor Foster Friess. little impact on the final outcome. has had more on his mind lately than the Cubs‘ problems. The Democrats have their own wealthy sugar daddies.org. who made a fortune as the founder of the online brokerage firm TD Ameritrade. One sign of just how little support there is for D‘Souza‘s claims in mainstream conservative circles is the fact that the only candidate to make the Obama as anti-colonial Kenyan claim during the Republican primary campaign was Newt Gingrich. That‘s because the tens of millions of dollars th at they are spending on television ads in the swing states is coming on top of hundreds of millions of dollars already being spent on TV ads in these states by the candidates themselves. Prof Poli Sci @ Emory.

12 (Nate. low Democratic turnout contributed to Reagan's margin of victory. However. Regarded as top -level pollster based on distinct mathematical models 2/6. Republican voters may feel that their vote makes little difference anyway and some of them will stay home as a protest. lexis) It should be remembered. But I'm more skeptical that this will matter much in an environment in which the election will be very close and every vote could make a difference . In other words. in 1984 for Walter Mondale. The safest default assumption is probably that this gap will exist again. a candidate who has some parallels to Mr. expanding Mr. NYT Blogs. Or it could be that the middling enthusiasm for Mr. perhaps if Mr. however. but strong turnout would not have reversed the result. .but that election was much closer. Obama appears poised for a 6. Romney will only make much difference if he appears to be in trouble by November. for instance. This usually manifests itself in the fact that polls of likely voters show somewhat more favorable results for Republicans than polls of registered voters.Elections DA 79/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Base/Turnout Key ―enthusiasm gap‖ and turnout not key – close election guarantees turnout even if voter enthusiasm is low Silver. On the other hand. it was clear that Ronald Reagan was going to win that election anyway. that Republicans have the turnout advantage in November because their voters tend to come from demographic groups (like older Americans and wealthier Americans) who vote more frequently. Democrats had somewhat limited enthusiasm for John Kerry in 2004 . chief pollster for New York Times‘ 538 election polling center. and they did not have any major problems in getting their voters to the polls.or 7-point victory by November based on the economic fundamentals. Democratic turnout was quite poor. Obama's victory margin to 8 or 9 points instead and making it look prettier in the Electoral College. but that it will amount to a more typical value like 2 or 3 percentage points than the 6-point "enthusiasm gap" that existed in 2010. Romney.

" . lexis The bigger issue.Elections DA 80/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: (Dem) Base Key Independent Swing voters key – not dem base Saunders. concerns Team Obama's apparent decision to win re-election by playing to the liberal base. Tea Party Express co-founder Sal Russo likened the Obama strategy to Bush guru Karl Rove's strategy to win re-election in 2004 by ginning up the base. the administration is busy pointing fingers at bad Republicans. there's only one standard ." Russo said. To independent voters especially. you're president. the president's failure to work with Congress doesn't compute. "Why can't you just walk over to Congress and talk to these guys?" To the average Joe. 12 Debra J. While the administration should be working to heal the economy. not the American political middle. Creators Syndicate. noted Russo. however. Saunders. "You've got to get the job done. "Look. January 7. Columnist @ San Fransisco Chronicle. Russo doesn't see how it could work for the Democrats this year. 2012.

Elections DA 81/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: (GOP) Base Key . in the bag. Columnist @ Politico." Wilson said. He's not seen as a Democratic partisan in the same way he was when he was president.Resilient GOP Base enthusiasm is locked up and irreversible – moderates key Epstien. GOP operative Rick Wilson said. Bill Clinton is beloved by those folks. because the combination of the primary's end and Obama's embrace of gay marriage have coalesced for him the conservative base." . What's left to target is the political middle and voters who remember fondly the Clinton era. "Romney now has the Republican base done and done. "He is still soft a little bit with moderates. cooked. 5/17. Locked up. 12 (Reid. lexis) Romney can make the about-face on Clinton.

nearly universally embraced by fellow party members in Congress -. Romney was ahead among men by 6 points: 50 percent to 44 percent. Obama beat Romney by 7 points.Elections DA 82/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: (GOP) Base Key – GOP must reach out to independents Strict opposition to spending or taxes backfires – alienates swing voters Cook. Among men. Finally. President Obama led presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney by just 4 percentage points. Romney defeated Obama by 7 points. Among white women 50 and older. a group he carried by 26 points. invariably. winning them by 19 points. Overall. In the survey. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press released a poll of 2. Given that women generally make up 51 to 52 percent of the electorate. white men. sometimes rubbing moderate Republicans the wrong way as well. Romney won the under-50 cohort by 13 percentage points. 4/19. Stan points to signs that. But Romney prevailed among men 50 and older by 11 percentage points. though. . the GOP has higher unfavorables and negatives than favorables and positives.it sure seems more likely to break in favor of the Democrats . and by 93 points among African-Americans. National Journal.particularly Budget Chairman Paul Ryan and his budget. actions by Republican governors and state legislatures pushed way too far. 54 percent to 42 percent. military. 56 percent to 38 percent. While I don‘t buy into Greenberg‘s argument of a potential Democratic wave. 50 percent to 43 percent. 12 (Charlie. assuming these groups turn out in numbers approaching 2008. Cook Political Report. a month ago. See a pattern here? Romney prevailed among those who picked the budget deficit as very important. if any kind of partisan wave is likely to develop -. Spending opponents not key. Each of the eight GOP presidential contenders. notably in Wisconsin and Ohio. http://cookpolitical. the contrast is even starker. When you make the same comparisons among just white voters. culled from a larger group of 3. 95 percent to 2 percent. in an August debate sponsored by Fox News. he won by 3 points. Positioning that far to the right is way too out there for most independent voters. a Republican needs to win among men by a wider margin than a Democrat does among women . he led that group by 39 percentage points. 61 percent to 34 percent. In all but the most unusual cases. Likewise. Those kinds of issues are very different from birth control and health care. it‘s clear that. in the minds of independents (and to a lesser extent in those of others). It was a conversation clearly aimed at the party base but overheard by other voters.com/node/12401) The messaging and signals emanating from Republican presidential candidates. 5/1. But if I were a Republican leader. That‘s an 11-point difference in the president‘s lead between the younger and older groups of women. Obama prevailed by 18 points. The relevance of all of this comes through when you look at key demographic breakouts from the trial heat between Obama and Romney. as well as from elected officials in Washington and in state capitals. 49 percent to 44 percent. In comparison.373 registered voters. I‘d at least consider the possibility. National Journal. they can skip ordering the champagne for election night. Greenberg‘s theory is that it is not one thing but the combination of factors. they already hate Obama – and the issue only alienates more important swing groups Cook. 48 percent to 45 percent. this applies to comparisons of ―Democrats in Congress‖ and ―Republican s in Congress. Among all registered voters. Not too surprisingly. Romney‘s support came overwhelmingly fro m white men. Among white men 50 and older. I don‘t yet see signs that the Republicans‘ obsession with their conservative base has reached a tipping poin t that will create a Democratic wave. there was the overheated rhetoric in the 20 or 21 Republican presidential debates. who found much of the talk more than a little exotic for their tastes. particularly white men over 50. http://cookpolitical. But it gets really interesting when you break the genders down by age: under 50 versus over 50. Taking all of this into consideration and then adding that Obama led by 40 points among Hispanic voters.008 adults. he prevailed by 27 percentage points. and health care by 15 points. Obama did best with those who rated the environment as very important. Democrats have not covered themselves in glory. Other polling shows real deterioration for Romney among independent women—most specifically. whenever Republican candidates lose women by more than they win among men. Cook Political Report. 53 percent to 40 percent. Among white women under 50. for only a 4-point difference between younger and older groups of women. birth control by 19 points. by 14 points. to such a degree that they seem to deliberately exclude women voters. Among all women under 50. Then there is Washington. and among those who named Iran.‖ It would seem that. Noting the polls of his own firm and plenty of others. 53 percent to 42 percent. who respond well to the suggestions of balanced approaches to deficit reduction. In some states.com/node/12442) Veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg offers up an alternative view. 49 percent to 45 percent. So. those under 50. said they would not go along with a budget proposal that included $10 in spending cuts for every $1 of tax increases. Among all women 50 and older. the Republican had an advantage of just 5 points among white women. it‘s women under 50 who are the demographic that either will or won‘t put Obama over the top in the general election.come across as too ideological or too harsh. interviewed April 4-15. Democrats hope to make the case that Republicans have tailored their priorities for white men. while the Democratic Party‘s brand has it‘s own issues with favorable-unfavorable and positive-negative gaps (different pollsters test these things in various ways). This is a group that once dominated the electorate but is now considerably smaller than a majority. down from a 12-point lead. Obama actually led among those under 50 by 1 percentage point: 47 percent to 46 percent. 67 percent to 27 percent. respondents rated the importance of 18 issues and then indicated their preference between Obama and Romney. That‘s a 14-point difference. 12 (Charlie.barring some cataclysmic political. Obama led among women by 13 points: 53 percent to 40 percent. The age difference among white women was considerably less important than that among all women. seem to be aimed at only conservative. The GOP brand has taken on considerably more water . especially younger women. They took positions and pushed policies that looked extreme to many non-ideological independent voters. Among white men. as he's suggesting. where Greenberg argues that Republicans -. 50 percent to 43 percent. or economic development at home or abroad -. a 12-point difference in Obama‘s standing between the younger and older men. 60 percent to 34 percent. He also won the folks who picked education as very important by 22 points. as a result of a backlash against Republicans going too far to the right.

http://cookpolitical.com/node/12467) Here‘s some totally unsolicited advice from the peanut gallery. The vast majority of conservatives would vote for very nearly anyone running against Obama . Cook Political Report. Campbell Robertson wrote that ―the antipathy toward the current administration among Republican voters . described here in terms ranging from the vulgar to the apocalyptic. can hardly be exaggerated. may resensitize him. Unlike conservatives and Republican partisans. they talk exclusively to partisans. were concerned about Obama‘s health care law because they already had health insurance.‖ While Romney must win a few Democratic votes.Elections DA 83/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Base support inevitable – appealing to them backfires Cook. 12 (Charlie. meanwhile. Having devot ed every waking hour for the last year and a half to catering to the carnivores in his party. National Journal. In a New York Times piece. Romney needs to cut back on the red-meat rhetoric that was required of him to win the GOP nomination. By the same token. He needs a more balanced and reasoned rhetoric. watching focus groups with swing voters. Independents. This rhetoric may create frowns or at least cause puzzled responses from swing voters. Sitting Romney down in front of a laptop. appealing to brains and not just to glands. looking for rhetoric that will elicit heads moving up and down in agreement. independents don‘t see health care or any other issue through an ideological lens. A discussion with Republicans and conservatives about health care reform has usually entailed talking about big government. first for Mitt Romney and then for Barack Obama. . he doesn‘t need to switch to a vegan or even a vegetarian diet. Transitioning from primary to general-election politics is rarely easy. 5/7. They were reasonably happy with it and were fearful that any major changes to the system would either raise premiums or cut benefits. independent and swing voters don‘t eat all their meals at steak houses. Candidates and campaign operatives develop Pavlovian conditioning. For months.

com/politics/u-s-politics/chamber-of-commerce-to-spend-in-record-numbers-on-2012-election. ―Our strategy is to protect the pro-business majority in the house and advance our interests in the Senate‖ said the group‘s national political director.htm) This business lobby has opposed Obama‘s administration key domestic policies which includes the 2010 healthcare restructuring law and has historically stayed away from the presidential race. http://www.dailypolitical. .Elections DA 84/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: Business lobbies/Chamber Commerce Key Business lobby won‘t get involved in presidential election and wouldn‘t back Obama no matter what Daily Political. 12 (5/12. Rob Engstrom.

That view lasted exactly as long as the party's national vote lead did. You'll hear plenty of similar pronouncements every election season . http://m. So even though the candidates will spend most of their time and money in the states they expect to matter most. Here are a few misperceptions about these in-demand states. But much of what we think we know about these key states. has been knocked down by political science research . the opposite is true. National polls have a key advantage: There are a lot more of them. if the Republican candidate does a little better overall. Star Tribune. http://m. especially this far from November. such as in 2000. too. conducted by the same handful of firms. http://m.General Swing states are a myth – overall support is key – elections determined by ―uniform swings‖ Bernstein. National polls more accurate than ―battleground state by state‖ polls Bernstein. so we're less likely to be fooled by the occasional outlier. Can‘t predict what key swing states will be – recent history proves Bernstein. Star Tribune. as soon as Bill Clinton took the national lead in 1992. 12 Jonathan Bernstein is a political scientist who contributes to the Washington Post. a candidate must find 270 electoral votes in order to win. 1. 12 Jonathan Bernstein is a political scientist who contributes to the Washington Post. Key swing states are a myth Bernstein. So even though the candidates will spend most of their time and money in the states they expect to matter most. and candidates lavish attention on them. Any candidate who wins the popular vote by at least three percentage points is certain to win the electoral college. In fact. elections are determined by a "uniform swing. Swing-state polls are the key to predicting the winner. Generally. Forget all these "rules. it won't make much difference. which switch party allegiances with some frequency. So the campaigns will put their resources into those states they expect to be close. but our elections are much more national than our obsession with swing states implies . Sure. by recent history. http://m. 1. if the Republican candidate does a little better overall. he's going to win the election. the opposite is true." That is. it won't make much difference.and sometimes. 12 Jonathan Bernstein is a political scientist who contributes to the Washington Post. Here are a few misperceptions about these in-demand states. if Romney wins Democratic California. because it certainly doesn't hurt. 6/9. he's going to be in the process of a huge national landslide.startribune. Swing states: Pundits love to talk about them.startribune. And the frequency of national polls . 6/9. and that the rest of us are just spectators. therefore they can't win without Ohio. but that's because if Romney wins California.Elections DA 85/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah A2: X Swing State Key . But if we're smart. Star Tribune. has been knocked down by political science research . pundits became convinced that the GOP had an electoral college lock. But in most years." That is. it turned out that some of the Republican "lock" states were swingers after all.and sometimes.or that Gov. 6/9. Swing-state polls are the key to predicting the winner.com/opinion/?id=158323795&c=y) . Yes. by recent history.com/opinion/?id=158323795&c=y) Republicans can't win without Ohio." When Republicans won three consecutive presidential elections in the 1980s. which switch party allegiances with some frequency. So the best way to follow the election is to read the national polling averages. and what matters almost every time is the national results . 12 Jonathan Bernstein is a political scientist who contributes to the Washington Post. the electoral college margin will be much larger than the popular vote difference. and any candidate who wins the popular vote by as much as a full percentage point is overwhelmingly likely to win the electoral college. then he's going to do a little better in close states such as Ohio and Nevada. Or: There is a "blue wall" of states that the Democrats have captured consistently since 1992.startribune. Scott Walker's recall victory in "blue wall" Wisconsin shows that Democrats are in trouble. Pennsylvania and Florida. Generally. And the rare times. That could mean that any poll showing a strong Republican tilt in one of those states indicates that Obama is doomed . 6/9. when the popular vote is very close.com/opinion/?id=158323795&c=y) Five myths about swing states Much of what we think we know about these key states has been knocked down by political science research. The Republicans have never won without Ohio.startribune. elections are determined by a "uniform swing. political junkies like me won't be able to stop themselves from peeking at what the Des Moines Register thinks is happening in the Hawkeye State. too. In fact. Sometimes it seems that the nominees are running for president of the United States of Ohio. The United States has national elections. it's not possible to guess in advance which states will be the one or two that really make a difference. we'll look at the national polls to find out what's really going on. so the party has a built-in minimum in the electoral college.com/opinion/?id=158323795&c=y) But much of what we think we know about these key states. especially this far from November. means informed readers can catch any obvious partisan tilts in the results and interpret them accordingly. Granted. Star Tribune. then he's going to do a little better in close states such as Ohio and Nevada.

what the key swing states .will turn out to be. some experience significant changes. including completely different sets in 2000 and 2004. Nevada. Sure. when Obama won by seven percentage points in 2008. New Hampshire. West Virginia. Florida and Minnesota. we don't expect solidly Republican Wyoming or solidly Democratic Vermont to be competitive. and in 2004. New Mexico and Florida. certainly until the last few weeks of the campaign. Iowa. they were Pennsylvania.Elections DA 86/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah It's true that some states will perpetually be competitive. or any of a dozen or more possibilities . Ohio. Iowa. But the past three cycles show that we can't know right now whether the state that puts Romney or Obama over the top will be Colorado.the ones that will truly determine the winner . The best illustration of that is to note which states have been closest to the national margin of victory in the past few elections. In 2000. That's 11 states over three cycles. The five states closest to the overall margin of victory in 2008 were Virginia. . Michigan and Minnesota. Ohio. which state results most closely matched that number? Those states would have determined the winner. had the electoral college count been very narrow. for instance. went from being one of the strongest Democratic states in 1980 to being one of the strongest Republican states now. New Hampshire. It's very hard to know in advance. but over time. they were Oregon. For example.

Elections DA 87/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

Elections DA 88/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah ***IMPACTS*** .

Elections DA 89/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah ***Iran Strikes*** .

there is too much loose talk of war. when the leverage of Israeli governments over U. to pledge his support for the Jewish state and to argue that international sanctions on Iran must be given more time to work. Will the United States and/or Israel attack Iran this year? The very fact that this is an issue of explicit and regular discussion is a major success for the Netanyahu government. Bush administrations. It has organized a broad international front against Iranian proliferation and increased the pressure on Tehran at every level. accessed 4-3-2012. HS – News. to "do something" about Iran. advocates. from regime change to carrying out. 12 (F. The administration's quiet but determined diplomacy has restrained Israel. Heyman Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. participating in. . Egypt and Syria have been specifically tailored to the challenges." For evidence of the agility of American policy in the Middle East under the Obama administration. foreign policy is greatest. Gregory the III.S. Already. Pg. among the The problem posed for Washington in Iran currently is a striking example of how history. March 5th (3-5-2012.. decision makers are confronting an intense campaign of public and private pressure. American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). in preventing policies tailored to its interests now than it was during the Cold War or in Iraq during the George W. the United States is more capable of implementing Despite this being an election year. We think it is. It is a substantial justification for wondering if. end domestic differences over nuclear strategy and. Obama said the bluster about a military strike was counter-productive because it has been driving up global oil prices. http://www. Lexis-Nexis. the President said. at best. Ian S. Obama won’t strike – prefers diplomacy The Herald. nevertheless often rhymes. it will be carried out by Israel against an American red light . Iran from obtaining a nuclear-weapons capability.com. Obama Warns of Loose Talks on Iran Strike.000 at the AIPAC policy conference.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/america-and-regionalpowers-transforming-middle-east. American and the Regional Powers in a Transforming Middle East. consider the degree to which policies in Iraq. tyrannical Islamist fundamentalism in 2012. the Iran case signifies that the United States is finding it easier to adapt to the disappearance of the old order in the Middle Under this president. The Obama administration is proving to be less susceptible to manipulation by its local allies than past administrations were. It might not succeed. or at least authorizing an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. originating in Israel and from many of Israel's supporters in the United States.Elections DA 90/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Obama won‘t Strike Obama won’t strike Iran – empirics and the failure of political pressures prove Gause. Summer 2012. not repeating itself. On the eve of his talks with Benjamin Netanyahu. set back its program a few years. Obama told a crowd of 13. Editorial. recognizing that its broader interests in a changing Middle East cannot be secured by military adventures. opportunities and constraints those very different settings present. reinforced by some of America's Gulf allies. If such an attack does occur. Debates rage. the specter of a totalitarian threat to the civilized world is portrayed as rising in Tehran — Red Communism in 1953. in the end. indeed. Middle East Policy Council. accessed 7-4-2012. Iranian nuclear issue has been. I firmly believe that an opportunity remains for diplomacy backed by pressure to succeed . while simultaneously implementing what is perhaps the most sophisticated and effective array of economic sanctions ever imposed on a country as large and important as Iran. The Herald (Glasgow). In a broader context. the United States is neither paralyzed against action out of fear of error. boosting demand for Iranian oil and helping to offset the impact of sanctions on its economy. But its approach has a much greater chance of success in preventing a nuclearized military confrontation in the region than a military strike that would unite Iranians (at least temporarily) behind their government. Bess W. 3. JKE) PRESIDENT Barack Obama has warned against loose talk of a war with Iran ahead of a meeting at which he will urge Israel s prime minister not to order a strike on the Islamic Republic s nuclear facilities. much as the administration's approach to the East than are local allies whose fundamental political logics are contradicted by twenty-first-century winds of change. Libya. the United States will not attack Iran. not encouraged by an American green or yellow light. simulations are performed and wagers are made on insider. Obama used a speech to the pro-Israel US lobby group.mepc. Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont and Lustick. nor misled into a simplistic and dangerously uniform "doctrine.S. Once again. JKE) U. That "something" differs.

" "In fact. President Obama Versus Romney on Iran. You can be sure that Mitt Romney would bow to his buddy Netanyahu and attack Iran. "I believe that the world's greatest practitioner of terrorism must not have the opportunity to develop atomic bombs. trying to prevent a needless war. "But so far at least we haven't given away anything -. JKE) A President Romney would have less hesitation about attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. Here‘s President Obama‘s response yesterday to Netanyahu (in a response to a journalist's question) at the press conference in Cartagena: But Obama refuted that statement. I think Iran should take immediate steps to stop all enrichment. "It has got five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation. before making any decision regarding Israel." Obama told reporters after an Americas summit in Colombia." Romney said on Face the Nation. Bottom line. Romney will attack Iran White.earlier said however that Tehran had simply bought itself some extra time to comply. "I can assure you that if I am president.dailykos. if necessary. and scaring the American people with needless terrorism alerts. any inhibition. "The clock is ticking and I've been very clear to Iran and our negotiating partners that we're not going to have these talks just drag out in a stalling process. expect more of the bombastic. http://news. accessed 7-42012..yahoo. International Business Times. accessed 7-7-2012. The Daily Kos.com/articles/359154/20120703/romney-full-scale-crisis-russia-iransyria. he will continue in his measured way to deal with the threats around the world. International Business Times – National Affairs Reporter.com/. however the biggest contrast is their approach to Iran. if I'm President. If the American people are not fooled by this charlatan and they reelect Barack Obama. that we need to have war powers approval or a special authorization for military force.whose government has not ruled out a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities -. through the use of negotiation. (See the Iraq war). he has a right to protect his nation if he believes that its under we all know how flawed the ―intelligence‖ was for the Iraq war. Romney Foreign Policy: A „Replay of the Bush Administration‟?. As he also said in a debate. http://www. he will call his friend Bibi. the premier's office reported. to prevent them from becoming a nuclear threat to the world." he said. therefore. Romney said he would be empowered to strike Iran without Congress' consent.ibtimes. April 16th (4-16-2012." Netanyahu said during talks with visiting US Senator Joe Lieberman. In response to a question about a recent Weekly Standard article urging Obama to seek congressional authorization for such an operation. Here‘s the big difference. they got the toughest sanctions that they're going to be facing coming up in a few months if they don't take advantage of those talks. take out all enrichment material and dismantle the nuclear facility in Qom. but only as a last resort.com/story/2012/04/16/1083726/-President-Obama-versus-Romney-on-Iran." ." Obama said.htm. if somehow the American people elect Mitt Romney. without bragging.other than the opportunity for us to negotiate.. "I don't believe at this stage. 7-3-2012." he said. http://www. However. saying " The notion that we've given something away or a freebie would indicate that Iran has gotten something. Editorial. And its important to let negotiations play out as far as possible before rushing to war.. The President has that capacity now. July 3rd (Jeremy B. and force if absolutely necessary. which would have many unintended consequences for years to come.Elections DA 91/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Romney Will Strike Romney win guarantees Iran strikes Daily Kos. quietly. He appears to see no need for negotiation. Bush cowboy approach to foreign policy with a more than likely bombardment of Iran. "My initial impression is that Iran has been given a 'freebie'. Obama in conjunction with world powers is negotiating with Iran. He has previously said ―We will not have an inch of difference between ourselves and Israel‖. I hope they do. Netanyahu -." he said. Granted. JKE) To me. Here‘s Netanyahu‘s recent response to the ongoing P5+1 talks: threat. the Iranians will have no question but that I would be willing to take military action. Binyamin Netanyahu by all accounts is a hawk who is pushing the United States to bomb Iran and has been doing so for a long time.

that we need to have war powers approval or a special authorization for military force. http://www. In response to a question about a recent Weekly Standard article urging Obama to seek congressional authorization for such an operation. "I don't believe at this stage. International Business Times. Romney said he would be empowered to strike Iran without Congress' consent. therefore. Romney Foreign Policy: A „Replay of the Bush Administration‟?.htm. July 3rd (Jeremy B." ." Romney said on Face the Nation. if I'm President. 7-3-2012. the Iranians will have no question but that I would be willing to take military action.ibtimes.Elections DA 92/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah AT . JKE) A President Romney would have less hesitation about attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.. "I can assure you that if I am president. to prevent them from becoming a nuclear threat to the world.Congress Blocks Romney will strike Iran – he has to power to overstep Congress White. International Business Times – National Affairs Reporter. if necessary. The President has that capacity now. accessed 7-7-2012.com/articles/359154/20120703/romney-full-scale-crisis-russia-iransyria.

com/larison/report-bolton-is-a-leading-candidate-for-secretary-ofstate/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=report-bolton-is-a-leading-candidate-for-secretaryof-state. is said to be a leading candidate for secretary of state. JKE) The Washington Times reports (via Glaser): John R. Report: Bolton is a “Leading Candidate” for Secretary of State. There is every reason to assume that Romney will govern in a fashion that would generally satisfy Bolton. Many of Romney‘s foreign policy views sound very much like Bolton‘s. ambassador during the George W. The hope that Romney‘s foreign policy statements are all campaign posturing and don‘t mean anything has always been just that–a hope. Bolton. but it‘s also not very surprising. July 21st (Daniel.N. . 6-21-2012. http://www.Campaign Rhetoric Romney’s strikes on Iran aren’t campaign rhetoric – Bolton’s consideration proves Larison.That‘s a terrifying prospect.D in History. Bush administration and specialist on arms control and security issues.Elections DA 93/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah AT . accessed 7-7-2012. Bolton is a prominent supporter of Romney. The American Conservative. The fact that Bolton is even being considered for this position ought to provide all the confirmation anyone needs that Romney‘s positions on Iran and Russia in particular are more than just election-year demagoguery. the U. Ph.theamericanconservative.

Elections DA 94/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah AT – No Escalation Cross apply Hirsch – Iran strikes cause extinction Draws in Russia and China – guarantees escalation EU Times. . 8/4. China Joins Russia. among many bad outcomes.‖ Hu‘s call for war joins Chinese Rear Admiral and prominent military commentator Zhang Zhaozhong who.eutimes. the bloody confession affirmed the CCPs bloodiness: a monstrous murderer. Iran strike collapses China Economy and Regime Stability Bishop. particularly the potential disruption to oil supplies on which much of China‘s manufacturing and international trade depend. http://www. launching the world economy into a period of turbulence not experienced since the autumn of 2008. The CCP. JKE) A grim Ministry of Defense bulletin issued to Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev today states that President Hu has ―agreed in principal‖ that the only way to stop the West‘s aggression led by the United States is through ―direct and immediate military action‖ and that the Chinese leader has ordered his Naval Forces to ―prepare for warfare. until now. warned this pa st week that: ―China will not hesitate to protect Iran even with a Third World War. the CCP intends to fight all of mankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. now plans to hold one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives. likewise.com/china/2010/08/16/if-israel-attacks-iran-what-about-china/] An attack on Iran would be devastating to China‘s economy and thus its political stability. free of all disguises. to ―warned China of the international consequences of military action.¶ The theme is murderous and utterly evil. To further pour more gasoline on the fire. to achieve its ends. would likely cause ―the price of oil to spike to cataclysmic highs. http://english. and nuclear weapons in its attempt to postpone its life.‖ Israel has tried in the last few months to impress upon the Chinese the seriousness of their intentions to never allow an Iranian nuclear bomb. Israel in April sent Major-General Amir Eshel. Editorial. Orders Military to Prepare for World War III. accessed 7-7-2012. As Goldberg writes. But we have never. coupled with seven or eight hundred million Chinese. seen a rogue who blackmails the world to die with it by wielding biological. ―If Israel Attacks Iran. lets the public see the CCP for what it really is: with evil filling its every cell. Since the Party‘s life is above all else. who has killed 80 million Chinese people. and nuclear weapons.Forbes. 8/16/2010 [Bill. including using nuclear weapons.forbes. And that is the theme of the speech. To lobby China for support for tougher UN sanctions. December 7th (European Union Online Newspaper. 12-7-2011.‖ and Russian General Nikolai Makarov who grimly stated last week: ―I do not rule out local and regional armed conflicts developing into a large-scale war. We did witness in China beggars who demanded money from people by threatening to stab themselves with knives or prick their throats on long nails. and the possible consequences for China in the event of an attack. Renxing San.‖ Extinction The Epoch Times.com/news/5-8-4/30931. or possibly since the oil shock of 1973. would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans. that disregards human life.epochtimes. What About China?‖ http://blogs.net/2011/12/china-joins-russia-orders-military-to-prepare-for-world-war-iii/. 8/4/2004. Anyhow. chemical. chief of the IDF‘s Planning Directorate. such a strike.html it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological. The speech.‖ A new US intelligence report has also stated that China has up to 3000 nuclear weapons compared with general estimates of between 80 and 400. chemical. the Washington Times has just reported that North Korea is making missile able to hit the US.

Elections DA 95/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

Elections DA 96/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah .

climate change could ―literally alter ocean currents. If Obama is re-elected with support in both houses. to Jon Huntsman have doubted climate change science leading up to the primaries. ―NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record. research assistant. 1-5-12. Scientists worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three decades now. everyone from Mitt Romney. plants are blooming several days earlier than a decade ago‖. ―glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected. with 1998 a close second‖. The report also notes that elections worldwide. atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century. The election of a President opposed to climate action will not only damage growth prospects for low-carbon solutions in the USA itself. Think Progress. At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm. a stripped down cap and trade programme could reemerge building on the regional scheme on the West and East coasts. the future of energy policy also hinges on political developments worldwide. Unfortunately. which. ―rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive hurricanes‖.‖ KGH) Finally. and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty. and…worldwide. ―Report: Future of Global Climate Deal Dependent On 2012 Election. about double pre-industrial levels. Think Progress. Newt Gingrich. Foreign Affairs Strategy. 12 (Rebecca.org/climate/2012/01/05/398600/report-future-of-global-climate-deal-dependent-on-2012election/. HSBC finds a global deal would be ―almost impossible‖ if a Republican wins the White House: [The] prospects for a new global climate deal in 2015 depend considerably on the election of a pro-climate action president. Warming causes extinction Deibel. despite having supported pollution limits as Massachussets governor. ―In legitimate scientific circles. 7 (―Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today Anthropogenic – caused by CO. particularly France. ―The world is slowly disintegrating. However. and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm. demands urgent action. Frontrunner Romney opposes carbon emissions limits and a cap and trade program. as this sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts ―brutal droughts. Though some GOP contenders haven‘t always positioned themselves as climate zombies. Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic warming is occurring. a report by the research branch of the HSBC bank predicts a deal would be trashed if President Obama is not reelected. there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent nature.‖ concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq.‖ Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly.‖ writes Elizabeth Kolbert. though far in the future. professor of IR at National War College. we expect modest measures to introduce a federal clean energy standard for electricity. but will make the hard task of negotiating a new global agreement by 2015 almost impossible. so there is no way . who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. ―They call it climate change…but we just call it breaking up. With climate denial and opposition to emissions limits rampant in the GOP field. Of course. It is the threat of global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. ―it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the fundamentals of global warming. wipe away huge portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria‖. KGH) World leaders struck a deal last month during the Durban United Nations conference that sets a path to a global climate deal by 2015 — a precarious agreement including major developing countries like China and India.‖ http://thinkprogress.000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution.‖ From the founding of the first cities some 6. will be an ―important test of the resilience of pro-nuclear policies‖ in a post-Fukushima world. ―widespread bleaching from Texas to Trinidad…killed broad swaths of corals‖ due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures.Elections DA 97/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah **Climate Change** 2NC Module Obama key to global climate agreement – only chance to solve Leber. ―Earth‘s warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150. floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century‖.000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year‖ as disease spreads. accessed 7-5-12. carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm).

Personal Liberty Digest. astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries but warming is the post-Cold War era‘s equivalent of nuclear winter at least as serious and considerably better supported scientifically. Obama will put the hearts and minds of Americans at ease.‖ The Office of Management and Budget estimates that the Department of Energy has seen its budget increase from $24 billion in 2009 to $38 billion in 2012. accessed 7-7-12.‖ Lizza writes: ―Obama has an ambitious second-term agenda. only to slow their increase. Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. based on positive feedback from the buildup of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. President Obama has said that the most important policy he could address in his second term is climate change.‖ During the Cold War. took place in just decades.com/article/climate-change-top-priority-for-president-obama-s-second-term. the Washington correspondent for The New Yorker. 6-14-12 (Dorsi. severe warming could cost 13-26 percent of GDP. we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms.‖http://personalliberty. and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village. 6-15-12. ―we‘re just going to burn everything up. In a rapidly warming earth with climate change wreaking havoc all . we‘re going to het the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles. If re-elected. The Examiner. Economist William Cline once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually. KGH). we are thus in for significant global warming. swamp t he southern third of Florida.com/2012/06/15/obama-will-focus-on-climate-change-if-re-elected/. one of the few issues that he thinks could fundamentally improve the world decades from now. the only debate is how much and how serous the effects will be.‖ http://www. Obama feels addressing climate change now is one of the few issues that could fundamentally improve the world decades from now. ―Climate change top priority for President Obama‘s second term. mass die offs of plants and animals. Personal Liberty Staff Writer. It is a threat not only to the security and prosperity to the United States. At worst. KGH) In a bold move sure to start arguments all over again about climate change. says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New York University. The President has said that the most important policy he could address in his second term is climate change. Past ice age transitions. and threatened inundation of low-lying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate. spread of disease. possible end life on this planet.Elections DA 98/150 As the newspaper stories quoted above show. species extinction. The Examiner reporter. the best one can conclude is that ―humankind‘s con tinuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin t o playing Russian roulette with the earth‘s climate and humanity‘s life support system. ―Obama Will Focus On Climate Change If ReElected. most scientists agree that climate change is the single most important issue facing human existence. leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolina‘s outer banks. at least in broad ways. and then everything will collapse. but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet. While there are still naysayers that don't believe that climate change is a real issue and believe that global warming has been fabricated to fuel a green agenda. But the most frightening scenario is runaway greenhouse warming. Over the long run it puts dangers form terrorism and traditional military challenges to shame. even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. He will pour his energy into climate change. the President plans to focus on climate change as a way to ―improve the world. examiner. Faced with this specter. 12 (Bryan. associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures. According to Ryan Lizza. Obama dedicated to climate change Diaz. which. accessed 75-12. Valley High School Rishi Shah immediately to reduce levels. his campaign is beginning to highlight. Global Obama Solves Emissions Climate change top priority for Obama Nash.

you can't spend the first 30 years of your life being an oil and gas guy and then say.net/public/climatewire/2012/04/16/1. increasing fires. but with gasoline prices climbing against the backdrop of an overcast economy. [Obama's] got the mirror image of the problem George Bush had. . floods and incidences of hurricanes. KGH) Republican strategists predict that Mitt Romney could intensify his attacks on the president's energy policies. a Romney spokeswoman. In an interview that Rolling Stone published in April 2012. the only thing that the President has delivered is gas prices twice as high as the day he took office. But several said it's unlikely Romney will return to the position he held on climate change last summer. and the clean energy standard. "In trying to sell himself as the pro-production president. 'Hey.‖ http://www. Even with the implementation of new policies concerning climate change. when the President made on average fewer mentions of climate change in his first three addresses than Bill Clinton or even George Bush. Romney raced into his new role as the presumptive nominee last week with a cascade of blows casting President Obama's economic policies as a failure for women." McKenna said. suggesting that Obama is inextricably linked to the green policies he pursued earlier in his term. The climate issue is "dead" in this election. including perhaps on past efforts to reduce carbon emissions. like oil and natural gas drilling. "George Bush. That might not be a detriment in another time. said in a statement. including independents.' Obama's got the same problem. said one strategist who believes in global warming. thereby limiting his appeal among voters.eenews.Elections DA 99/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah around the world. Republicans see benefits in preventing Obama from pivoting to an "all of the above" approach. accessed 7-7-12." McKenna said. Reporter E&E. now that the former Massachusetts governor is accelerating into the general election race. the strategists say. won‘t soften on climate change. cap and trade. the President said he thinks climate change will be a big issue in the coming election and that he will be ―very clear" about his "belief that we're going to have to take further steps to deal with climate change in a serious way. would be to portray the president as an exclusive supporter of renewable energy sources. like the economic stimulus package. E&E Publishing." It portrays the Obama campaign airing television ads in swing states as an attempt to sidestep concerns about gas prices. kept trying to sell.' Well. who favor choices among all resources. a Republican energy adviser and lobbyist who is unaffiliated with the Romney campaign. I'm the green president. said Mike McKenna. 'Hey. "He's imprinted on the voters' minds as being the renewable energy president. 4-16-12. in part. there is no guarantee that the earth has not already passed a critical "tipping point". dude. the Romney campaign launched an attack Thursday afternoon called the "magical misery tour. He accused the president Tuesday of waging a "war on women." Romney doesn’t Solve Emissions Romney unconcerned by climate change Lehmann. 12 (Evan." Energy skirmishes in battleground states As if on cue. Romney could increasingly use similar economic criticisms to challenge Obama's claims of supporting expanded fossil fuel production. appealing to independents. ―Romney. a category of voters with whom Obama enjoys a double-digit lead over Romney in polling. humans are starting to see the effects of climate change including devastating crop losses. "After three years of promising change." With the tone of the race sharpening. when he expressed belief in humans' contribution to climatic alterations. sea-level rises. The intent. Making climate change his top priority is in stark reversal to the beginning of his Presidency. I'm really an ethanol and solar power guy. tornadoes and flooding world-wide. creator of ethanol." Andrea Saul.

Vermont Law. the TRAIN Act ―would create a special committee to oversee the EPA‘s rules and regulations." the Romney adviser said.Calif. is airing its own ads in those same states. taken up by the House in November.‖ This would mark a dramatic shift from the current approach under the Clean Air Act. attacking higher mileage standards and renewables. the adviser said. the Regulations from the Executive in Need of Scrutiny (REINS) Act. Republicans want to undermine EPA Echeverria. Florida..key battleground states where independents could tilt the race in November. Fewer measures have been directed at weakening regulations of the Department of Energy and Department of the Interior. Since Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterm elections. it costs a lot of money. EPA headquarters Included among the more broad-based attacks on the regulatory power of the EPA is the Transparency in Regulatory Analysis of Impacts on the Nation (TRAIN) Act." The Obama ad is airing in Colorado. "You don't need to get more complicated than that. Similarly. are financing a television campaign to discourage alternative fuel sources.Elections DA 100/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah The Obama ad touts the president's record of raising fuel economy standards and increasing renewable energy. and land. accessed 7-6-12. "In all these fights. It also accuses Romney of siding with fossil fuel companies. air. also introduced in September. which. finding the vast majority of anti-environment votes targeting the EPA (91 votes). which the former president and Congress established in a bipartisan response to public demand for cleaner water. ―With Republicans Attacking the EPA.edu/republican-assault-on-epa/. D." Renewables 'tainted' Throughout the primary contest. they have introduced an unprecedented number of measures designed to weaken longstanding environmental protections and block the EPA from putting forth new regulations. Yale Law School.‖ The perceived assault has prompted the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. as of September 2011 there have been 170 anti-environment votes under the Republican majority in the 112th Congress. 2012 Could Be a Turning Point for Environmental Regulation. the ad says. "They know when they go to the pump and begin to fill up. Not coincidentally.vermontlaw. It strikes at Obama's perceived weakness on economic policy and also emphasizes Democratic tendencies to use overbearing government regulations. An energy adviser for the Romney campaign said sustained messaging about gas prices will continue through the summer. Crossroads GPS. The database breaks down this number by category. 12 (John.‖ http://watchlist. a super PAC supporting Romney. an environmental advocate. Iowa. Mitt Romney stood with Big Oil. Finally." the ad says. Some of these seek to block actions that prevent pollution (71 votes). has called this ―the most anti-environmental Congress in history. KGH) Among the other things causing Richard Nixon to turn over in his grave may be Republican attacks on the Environmental Protection Agency. to develop an online database tracking the number and scope of anti-environment bills proposed on the House floor. and require the agency to consider economic impacts on polluters when it sets standards concerning how much air pollution is too much. remember who paid for them and what they want. and others to dismantle the Clean Air Act specifically (61 votes). even if prices inch downward. Georgetown University. According to the searchable database. would require a hearing for each new regulation in which the primary goal would be to find lower-cost alternatives to the agency‘s proposals. blocking action on climate change and defunding clean energy initiatives. Romney rarely mentioned renewable energy. Passed by the House in September. Ohio and Virginia -. unless he was denigrating Obama's use of loan guarantees to help finance companies like the failed solar panel manufacturer Solyndra. Nevada. chaired by Waxman. the Regulatory Accountability Act. ostensibly forcing cost to become the most important consideration in the rulemaking process. Vermont Law School. would . in which the EPA weighs only scientific and health considerations. for their tax breaks. Rep. "So when you see these ads. Henry Waxman.

Romney and Ryan don‘t specify which tax expenditures they will eliminate. More money will surely fill his coffers this year since Rick Perry is no longer in the race. accessed 7-7-12. They were Romney‘s eleventh-most-supportive industry. Janna. of course. he said oil executives tell him life was better under the . although Romney recently suggested the mortgage interest deduction for second homes might be one. The bulk of their fortune comes from refining and distributing products such as petroleum. According to Think Progress.‖ http://www. This is. At a Fox News event in December. as Stone notes. Romney opposes President Obama‘s proposal to eliminate billions of dollars worth of subsidies for oil companies in the tax code. American Petroleum Institute. But the real money supporting Romney is the largesse he will enjoy through unlimited donations to Super PACs.thenation. and Representative Paul Ryan‘s (R-WI) budget. mining and energy industries.Elections DA 101/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah require congressional approval of all executive branch regulations if they are deemed ―major rules.‖ President Obama informed Congress on December 6 that he would veto the measure if it were sent to the White House.750. ―The billionaire industrialist brothers David and Charles Koch plan to steer more than $200 million—potentially much more—to conservative groups ahead of Election Day. the League of Conservation Voters (LCV).‖ Coincidentally. the Man from Big Oil. blatantly contradicts Romney‘s own proposals. They were moved to do so. Allies of Romney and the Kochs are already putting their money to work attacking Obama. while preserving lucrative tax subsidies for the booming oil. far more than they gave to President Obama. And Romney is returning the favor with policy promises. ―In the first three-and-a-half months of 2012. It was the first time that those groups had come together to make a candidate endorsement. Romney is opposed to the Environmental Protection Agency regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant. 4-26-12. at least.000 on energy attack ads. As Newsweek‘s Daniel Stone reports. and quite early in the process. one rare subject where Romney can claim to be consistent. chemicals and fertilizers. Last week four environmental groups—the Sierra Club. both of which claim to be revenue neutral by slashing tax rates but paying for it by eliminating tax expenditures.‖ On other environmental issues Romney also sides with polluting industries. ―[Ryan] asked Americans to make sacrifices on everything from Medicare to education. groups including Americans for Prosperity. own stakes in four family companies that lease land in Texas and Oklahoma to the very energy companies that benefit from the tax subsidies in Ryan's budget plan. ―Meet Mitt. He supported continuing tax breaks for oil back in the 2008 campaign as well. Back in October Politico reported. KGH) No sooner had Mitt Romney wrapped up the Republican presidential nomination than environmental groups began alerting the public to the threat they believe he represents. In 2011 the oil and gas industry gave Romney $899. Energy companies and the rich tycoons who own them have begun pouring money into Republican causes for the 2012 cycle and are expected to give considerably more before November. he was calling for a ―dangerous‖ tax increase then. whereas they did not rank among President Obama‘s top twenty.com /blog/167594/meet-mitt-man-big-oil#. Romney justifies this by saying he is against all tax increases and that it is ―dangerous‖ to single out one industry for losing its special favors. Their libertarian ideology seems to revolve primarily around keeping the government from doing anything that would protect the public interest over their profit margins. Reporter The Nation. Ryan made sure to exempt the extractive industries from any austerity in his budget. He seems to oppose the EPA doing much of anything. Romney backed by Big Oil – wont pass climate change legislation Adler. Clean Water Action and Environment America— collectively endorsed President Obama. because Romney is heavily backed by the enemies of environmental regulation. ―He and his wife. Crossroads GPS and American Energy Alliance have spent $16. 12 (Ben. This. By his logic. The Nation.630 according to the Center for Responsive Politics.‖ The term ―industrialist‖ does not fully capture the Kochs‘ intense personal interest in opposing environmental regulations.

former intern for the EPA. he contended. as the best means of improving air quality at minimum economic cost. KGH) The tension between climate policy and electoral reality was on display at the Brookings Institution on June 11. AT . nuclear. Carbon pricing vs. Katherine Sierra (Brookings Senior Fellow.‖ A cap-and-trade policy therefore might garner bi-partisan support.Elections DA 102/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Bush-Cheney administration. June 11. coal. ―I think the EPA has gotten completely out of control for a very simple reason: It is a tool in the hands of the president to crush the private enterprise system. gas.climatesciencewatch. where revenues could be used to fund deficit reduction and economically harmful marginal tax rates. accessed 7-6-11. Ted Gayer (Brookings Senior Fellow. Although most economists advocate for putting a price on greenhouse gases through a carbon tax or cap-and-trade program. he advocates for carbon pricing policies. Republicans risk a reversion of environmental policy away from marketbased approaches toward these more costly options. if introduced into the right political climate. 6-13-12. as they would. electoral reality The discussion was centered on Gayer‘s recent paper in which he suggests the next administration elevate climate policy to a national priority by making it a component of fiscal reform. there is little political appetite to do so.‖ Gayer conceded. ―The economics is clear and convincing. Panelists included Moderator Darren Samuelsohn (POLITICO). he believes. Romney even opposes fuel efficiency standards for automobiles.‖http://www. ―The traditional approach taken by EPA. Economic Studies). And global warming is thus far not even an issue in the presidential election. to crush our ability to have energy. ―Campaign 2012: Climate Change and Energy.org/2012/06/13/campaign-2012-climate-change-and-energy/. By demonizing cap-and-trade in the latest debate.‖ as they have in the past.Congress Blocks Congress will support O’Konski. Will the next president be able to make climate and energy a national priority?‖ So read the event description for a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Researcher at Climate Science Watch. Speakers on climate change and energy in the 2012 election suggested that pricing carbon emissions should be a priority for the next administration. And given GOP attitudes . But while pricing carbon could play an essential role in a progressive climate policy. it lacks support from a public that a new study finds is more willing to support regulations and mandates as a means of promoting clean energy alternatives. as prescribed by the environmental laws of the 1970s. whether it's oil. and Charles Ebinger (Brookings Senior Fellow. 6-13-12 (Katherine. he argued. Energy Security). It would have to be one among many taxes‖ to make any dent in the national deficit. DC. ―An economy-wide cap-and-trade program allows the market the flexibility to find the cheapest sources of pollution reduction in order to meet the capped level of emissions. become redundant if a price on carbon were in place. Pricing carbon is the best way to make meaningful reductions in emissions. Specifically. Climate Science Watch. Gayer recommends. a carbon pricing policy would double as part of a tax reform policy. Gayer estimates that pricing carbon could generate $100 billion over 25 years – a significant sum but ―not the holy grail. climate policy has become a second-tier political issue. attempts to achieve environmental improvements through inflexible and economically costly mandates that set uniform technology standards across firms. this Monday. A price on carbon would also mean that regulations and mandates (like efficiency standards) could be abandoned.‖ he said. Global Economy and Development).‖ Romney said. Carbon pricing achieves the greatest emissions reductions at the lowest possible cost. ―As the struggling economy and demand for jobs consume the American public‘s attention. ―Republicans should embrace market-based environmental policies.‖ Under his scheme. ―It‘s definitely a long shot in the short term.

released today by EPI. Health benefits in terms of lives saved and illnesses avoided will be enormous. not a job killer by EPI economist Josh Bivens. accessed 7-6-11. a broader assessment of the impact regulations have on jobs and the economy. The benefit/cost ratio ranges from 6-to-1 to 15-to-1. reveal EPA‘s proposed ―air toxics rule‖ is no threat to job growth. expressed in 2010 dollars. The Combined Effect of the Obama EPA Rules calculates the dollar value of the benefits and costs of new EPA rules. non-partisan think tank that analyzes the economic status of America. including the following: Setting aside the Cross-State Air Pollution rule. Further. Regulation. The House may vote to delay this vital rule this week. ―EPI reports clarify economic impact of new EPA rules as House begins debates on regulations. and thus are not a significant factor in the overall economy‘s direction. Assuming the proposed rules are also finalized. the findings in A lifesaver. when fully in effect in 2016 the combined costs of the major EPA rules finalized and proposed so far under the Obama administration would amount to about 0. suggesting that fears that these rules together will deter economic progress are unjustified.Elections DA 103/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah toward any sort of environmental protection. shows the regulations formulated by the Obama Administration will be of tremendous benefit to public health. non-profit. beginning this week.1% of the economy.m The combined annual benefits from three major proposed rules examined here exceed their costs by $62 billion to $188 billion a year. EPI also finds that the costs of all finalized and proposed rules total to a tiny sliver of the overall economy. EPI‘s research finds that the dollar value of the benefits of the major rules finalized or proposed by the EPA so far during the Obama administration exceeds the rules‘ costs by an exceptionally wide margin.epi. debunks arguments that their cumulative impact would harm the struggling economy.13% of the economy. This latest research from EPI explains that Cantor‘s characterization of these rules is inaccurate. When fully in effect in 2014. The paper. . and that an emphasis on deregulation can contribute to dramatic economic dislocation. Economic Policy Institute. and the economy: Fears of job loss are overblown by Shapiro and EPI research director John Irons. aimed at halting them.org/press/epi-reports-clarify-economic-impact-epa/. In addition to the new findings in The Combined Effect of the Obama EPA Rules. the push for this kind of policy ―must come from the White House. by Economic Policy Institute (EPI) Director of Regulatory Policy Research Isaac Shapiro. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has characterized many of these new EPA rules as ―regulatory burdens to job creators‖ and has scheduled a series of votes. KGH) The Combined Effect of the Obama EPA Rules. published in April 2011. the combined annual benefits from all finalmajor rules exceed their costs by $10 billion to $95 billion a year. and would instead lead to modest job creation. The benefit/cost ratio ranges from 2-to-1 to 20-to-1. 11 (9-19-11. employment. the only comprehensive tally of the combined costs and benefits of the new major Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules. The net benefits from the Cross-State Air Pollution rule exceed $100 billion a year (this rule is treated separately because benefits accruing from action under the Bush administration and the Obama administration cannot be disentangled).‖ AT – Regulations hurt Economy EPA improves economy EPI. the combined costs of the major rules finalized by the Obama administration‘s EPA would amount to significantly less than 0.1 percent of the economy.‖ http://www. and the combined compliance cost of the rules – both finalized and proposed – amounts to only about 0. finds that regulations generally have a modestly positive or neutral effect on the economy. published in June 2011.

Elections DA 104/150 Biodiversity Impact

Valley High School Rishi Shah

Warming causes species loss and devastates biodiversity
Science Daily 6 (Science Daily, Global Warming Capable Of Sparking Mass Species Extinctions, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/04/060411230548.htm) KA

The Earth could see massive waves of species extinctions around the world if global warming continues unabated,
according to a new study published in the scientific journal Conservation Biology. Given its potential to damage areas far away from human habitation, the study finds

that global warming represents one of the most pervasive threats to our planet's biodiversity -- in some areas rivaling and even surpassing deforestation as the main threat to biodiversity. The study expands on a much-debated 2004 paper published in
the journal Nature that suggested a quarter of the world's species would be committed to extinction by 2050 as a result of global warming. This latest study picks up where the Nature paper left off, incorporating critiques and suggestions from other scientists while increasing the global scope of the research to include diverse hotspots around the world. The results reinforce the massive species extinction risks identified in the 2004 study. " Climate

change is rapidly becoming the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity," said lead author Dr. Jay Malcolm, an assistant forestry professor at the University of Toronto. "This study provides even stronger scientific evidence that global warming will result in catastrophic species loss across the planet." Using vegetation models, the research is one of the first attempts to assess the potential effects of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity on a global scale rather than just looking at individual species. Scientists looked specifically at the effect that climate change would have on 25 of the 34 globally outstanding "biodiversity hotspots" -- areas containing a large number of species unique to these regions alone, yet facing enormous threats. "It isn't just polar bears and penguins that we must worry about anymore," said Lee Hannah, co-author of the study and senior fellow for climate change at Conservation International. "The hotspots studied in this paper are essentially refugee camps for many of our planet's most unique plant and animal species. If those areas are no longer habitable due to global warming then we will quite literally be destroying the last sanctuaries many of these species have left." Since
these biodiversity hotspots make up about one percent of the Earth's surface, but contain 44 percent of all terrestrial vertebrate species and 35 percent of the world's plant species, they are good indicators of the magnitude of global species that might be affected by rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere. "These

species lose their last options if we allow climate change to continue unchecked," said Dr. Lara Hansen, Chief Climate Scientist at global
conservation group World Wildlife Fund. "Keeping the natural wealth of this planet means we must avoid dangerous climate change -- and that means we have got to reduce carbon dioxide emissions." Areas particularly vulnerable to climate change include the tropical Andes, the Cape Floristic region of South Africa, Southwest Australia, and the Atlantic forests of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. These areas are particularly vulnerable because the species in these regions have restricted migration options due to geographical limitations.

Species loss leads to human extinction
Diner 94 (Major David N.; Instructor, Administrative and Civil Law Division, The Judge Advocate General's School, United States Army, "The Army and the Endangered Species Act: Who's Endangering Whom?" 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161) KA

Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. "The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it
can resist a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole." 79 By

causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The spreading
Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each

new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction . Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanic
removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, 80 mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.

Disease Impact

Warming causes Disease
Associated Press 6 ("Global warming causing diseases to rise" MSNBC.com http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15717706/ns/health-health_care/t/globalwarming-causing-disease-rise/#.T-xcarUynw5) BSB

Elections DA 105/150

Valley High School Rishi Shah

―Climate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the world,‖ said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization. ―The impacts may already be significant.‖ Kristie L. Ebi, an American public health consultant for the agency, warned ―climate change could overwhelm public health services.‖ The specialists laid out recent findings as the two-week U.N.
climate conference entered its final four days, grappling with technical issues concerning operation of the Kyoto Protocol, and trying to set a course for future controls on global greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists

attribute at least some of the past century‘s 1-degree rise in global temperatures to the accumulation in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases, byproducts of power plants, automobiles and other fossil fuel-burning sources. A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world, health experts reported Tuesday, citing surges in Kenya, China and Europe of such diseases as malaria, heart ailments and dengue fever.

Disease causes extinction
Yu 09 [Victoria, ―Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,‖ Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate

Science, May 22, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate] In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. Perhaps the best-known case was the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population in the mid-14th century (7). While vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases, new viral strains are constantly emerging — a process that maintains the possibility of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction. Some surveyed students mentioned AIDS as a potential pandemic-causing virus. It is true that scientists
have been unable thus far to find a sustainable cure for AIDS, mainly due to HIV‘s rapid and constant evolution. Specifically , two factors account for the virus‘s abnormally high mutation rate: 1. HIV‘s use of reverse transcriptase, which does not have a proof -reading mechanism, and 2. the lack of an error-correction mechanism in HIV DNA polymerase (8). Luckily, though, there are certain characteristics of HIV that make it a poor candidate for a large-scale global infection: HIV can lie dormant in the human body for years without manifesting itself, and AIDS itself does not kill directly, but rather through the weakening of the immune system. However, for

more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza, the evolution of new strains could prove far more consequential. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza virus could produce a new version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately find a cure. Since influenza can spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a ―global influenza pandemic,‖ according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). The most recent scare of this variety came in 1918 when bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original viral strain — which could only infect birds — into a humanviable strain (10).

Elections DA 106/150

Valley High School Rishi Shah

**US-China Relations**
2NC Module

Romney win crushes US-China relations
Lu and Swaine 12 (Raymond and Michael, postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Chinese Studies, University of California at Berkeley, specializes in Chinese security and foreign policy, U.S.–China relations, and East Asian international relations, 3/6/12, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/06/romney-s-china-policy-strategic-questionsstill-unanswered/a0rl, accessed on 7/5/12, EW)
Raymond Lu and Michael D. Swaine argue that presidential candidate Mitt Romney's rhetoric about China points to a direction of diplomatic neglect and military overreach, while leaving important strategic questions unanswered. During the recent visit of Chinese heir apparent Xi Jinping to the United States, Mitt Romney lambasted the Obama administration for approaching Beijing as a "near supplicant" and permitting "the dawn of a Chinese century" to continue unopposed .

The way forward: tougher economic penalties to reverse Washington's "trade surrender," and an invigorated military presence in the Pacific to force China to abandon its dreams of regional hegemony. The conventional reading of Romney on
China suggests that such chest-thumping rhetoric will fade with the election, giving way to the mainstream consensus that pairs economic and diplomatic engagement with strategic hedging.

Though this is at least partially true, leaving the next administration's China policy to the learning curve is still risky. Romney's tough talk on China conceals some profoundly deterministic--and pessimistic assumptions--about the future of U.S.-China relations that could accelerate existing momentum for future confrontations. Without a critical appraisal of U.S. interests and capabilities, Romney could do both too much and too little to manage the frictions
generated by an increasingly assertive China in Asia. Too much in that an overly aggressive and militarized response against China could set the two great powers on a collision course, and too little in that poorly-conceived interventions in other regions could force the United States to divert its attention and resources away from Asia, sending disturbing messages to China and U.S. allies alike. After 10 years of close but unproductive talks, the U.S. and China still fail to understand one another's nuclear weapons policies, according to a disturbing report by Global Security Newswire. In other words, neither the U.S. nor China knows when the other will or will not use a nuclear weapon against the other. That's not due to hostility, secrecy, or deliberate foreign policy -- it's a combination of mistrust between individual negotiators and poor communication; at times, something as simple as a shoddy translation has prevented the two major powers from coming together. Though nuclear war between the U.S. and China is still extremely unlikely, because the two countries do not fully understand when the other will and will not deploy nuclear weapons, the odds of starting an accidental nuclear conflict are much higher.

Global nuclear war
Wittner, Ph.D. in history, international prof., former president of the Council on Peace Research in History, 11 (Lawrence S., 11/28/11, http://hnn.us/articles/nuclear-war-china-possible, accessed on 7/5/12, EW)

While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used. After all, for centuries national conflicts have led to wars, with nations employing their deadliest weapons. The current deterioration of U.S. relations with China might end up providing us with yet another example of this phenomenon. The gathering tension between the United States and China is clear enough. Disturbed by China‘s growing economic and military strength, the U.S. government recently challenged China‘s claims in the South China Sea, increased the U.S. military presence in Australia, and deepened U.S. military ties with other nations in the Pacific region. According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the United States was ―asserting our own position as a Pacific power.‖ But need this lead to nuclear war? Not necessarily. And yet, there are signs that it could. After all, both the United States and China possess large numbers of nuclear weapons. The U.S. government threatened to attack China with nuclear weapons during the Korean War and, later, during the conflict over the future of China‘s offshore islands, Quemoy and Matsu. In the midst of the latter confrontation, President Dwight Eisenhower declared publicly, and chillingly, that U.S. nuclear weapons would ―be used just exactly as you would use a bullet or anything else.‖ Of course, China didn‘t have nuclear weapons then. Now that it does, perhaps the behavior of national leaders will be more temperate. But the loose nuclear threats of U.S. and Soviet government officials during the Cold War, when both nations had vast nuclear arsenals, should convince us that, even as the military ante is raised, nuclear saber-rattling persists. Some pundits argue that nuclear weapons

and by the year 2020 it is expected to more than double its number of nuclear weapons that can hit the United States. But what would that ―victory‖ entail? A nuclear attack by China would immediately slaughter at least 10 million Americans in a great storm of blast and fire. Today.org. The second.S. while the Chinese government has a total inventory of roughly three hundred. while India.htm. throughout the Cold War. don‘t nuclear weapons deter a nuclear attack? Do they? Obviously. readied its own nuclear missiles for an attack on Pakistan. spoke to Guancha. Obama Helps Relations Obama’s re-election is key to US-China relations Guancha News 7/1 (7/1/12. Wang Jisi. government. dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University. Pakistan did move nuclear weapons toward its border. while leaving many more dying horribly of sickness and radiation poisoning. At the least. creating worldwide famine. Also.S. relations remained unsolved for such a long time? Wang Jisi: Most of the problems related to Sino-U. admittedly.S. government possesses over five thousand nuclear warheads. and Advisory Council Member of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies of the Brookings Institution Sino-U.S. To avert the enormous disaster of a U. in turn.-China nuclear war. if U. Moreover. Pres. If the American and Chinese people are interested in ensuring their survival and that of the world. relations are rooted in the two powers' mutual suspicion of each other. Furthermore. conducted while the nuclear disarmament process is occurring. relations have long been considered the most important bilateral ties in the 21st century. has been hostile to any nation under Communist rule. between nuclear-armed India and nuclear-armed Pakistan. Q: Is Sino-US hostility caused by political bias or is it the result of two big powers confronting each . and generating chaos and destruction. radioactive wastelands. NATO leaders didn‘t feel deterred. http://www. Guancha. But the Kargil War of 1999. radioactive debris sent aloft by the nuclear explosions would blot out the sun and bring on a ―nuclear winter‖ around the globe—destroying agriculture. the relationship between China and the U. government officials really believed that nuclear deterrence worked. there haven‘t been very many—at least not yet.cn/opinion/2012-07/01/content_25780083.S. The Chinese government is currently expanding its nuclear arsenal. only about forty of these Chinese nuclear weapons can reach the United States.S. in another decade the extent of this catastrophe would be far worse. International Council Member of the Asia Society in New York City.-China relations. During the conflict.china. Indeed. nuclear arsenal is far greater than its Chinese counterpart.S. has plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars ―modernizing‖ its nuclear weapons and nuclear production facilities over the next decade. for. they should be working to encourage these policies. it is claimed. The U.S. and yet has also seen many improvements.S. there are two obvious actions that can be taken. accessed on 7/4/12. Why are these vastly expensive—and probably unworkable—military defense systems needed if other nuclear powers are deterred from attacking by U. is to improve U. Of the Chinese Association for American Studies. EW) Wang Jisi:Prof at National Defense University of the PLA. This suspicion can be traced back to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. China's firm belief is that the U. The first is to get rid of nuclear weapons. has considered it an enemy ever since the founding of the new republic. Having endured 40 tumultuous years since the signing of the Shanghai Communiqué in 1972. national missile defense. NATO‘s strategy was to respond to a Soviet conventional military attack on Western Europe by launching a Western nuclear attack on the nuclear-armed Soviet Union. it is estimated that the U. as the nuclear powers have agreed to do but thus far have resisted doing.S.cn about his views on the current problems in Sino-U. The [existing] mutual political suspicion will only grow as time goes by.cn: Why have the problems in Sino-U. relations. they would not have resorted to championing ―Star Wars‖ and its modern variant. the bottom line for those Americans convinced that nuclear weapons safeguard them from a Chinese nuclear attack might be that the U. currently faces many challenges. should convince us that such wars can occur. the U. Surely the United States would ―win‖ any nuclear war with China.S.Elections DA 107/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah prevent wars between nuclear-armed nations. founding member of the Pacific Council on International Policy in Los Angeles. the conflict almost slipped into a nuclear war.S. Pakistan‘s foreign secretary threatened that. if the war escalated.S. his country felt free to use ―any weapon‖ in its arsenal. The Chinese death toll in a nuclear war would be far higher. in that case. On the other hand. though. Both nations would be reduced to smoldering. and.S. Moreover. nuclear might? Of course.

National Security Network – Policy Analyst. businessmen tend to focus their attention on China's economic systems rather than its ideologies.S. Simply learning more about a country does not necessarily mean you will trust it more.S.S. ―Even some of the US' allies regard these unscrupulous and irresponsible attacks on its imaginary enemies as nonsense. and they will only happen when necessary for the interests of either side. global hegemony? Wang Jisi: Due to many of the practices of both countries. The Obama administration. April 25th (Jacob.‖ As for Romney‘s remarks on currency issues. this individual experience will not eliminate the political differences and mutual suspicion which exist between the two countries. JKE) Broadly. http://chinausfocus. For the U. each has long suspected the other of plots and counter-plots where international issues are concerned. taking into consideration the current large gap which exists in terms of overall strength between the two countries. Such deals are a two-way street between U.S. and indeed has no wish to negate China. International issues are affected by various factors. Despite this. a Foreign Ministry spokesman called Romney‘s stance ―irresponsible‖ and a Xinhua report characterized his stance as an ―absurd‖ attempt to play on the fears of U. Q: Some scholars think that the U. accessed 7-9-2012. the 21st century will be an ―American century.S.‖ not a ―Chinese century. including official diplomatic debates and media hype. doesn't "deliberately" sell arms to Taiwan.S. The Pentagon focuses on China's increasing military expenditure in order to push for increased US military spending. a USPhilippines joint military drill was held shortly after the Huangyan Islands dispute erupted. the U. does the U. China-US Focus. has continuously tried to reassure China that the U. whether in the U. Specifically. deliberately sell arms to Taiwan? Wang Jisi: In terms of timing. such weapon deals represent economic interest and strategic significance.S. Q: Will the mutual suspicion be lessened by the increasing number of non-governmental exchanges between the two sides? Wang Jisi: Not really. the U. A piece in the People‘s Daily Overseas Edition. as well as defense cooperation. has not tried to. Commentaries in the Chinese press have derided Romney‘s positions on China. and the tension was fuelled by international media. China boasts conflicts between the two countries as a result of national interests are unavoidable. voters. the dispute will contain its biggest opponent.S. April 18th . for provoking or exacerbating the disputes. part. if he‘s elected. Romney views the Sino-American relationship as zero-sum and destined for strategic confrontation. Q: Is China now really mounting a serious challenge to U. of being is behind these disputes. who acquire information via domestic mainstream media.Campaign Rhetoric Romney’s views on China aren’t political – the Cold War and China visits shape his views Hon. both of which are quite attractive to the U. in order to gain electoral support. Instead of trying to do so. sniped that.S. simply being opportunistic as far as these disputes are concerned? Wang Jisi: From the U.S. increased tension between China and the Philippines over the disputed Huangyan Islands can only be an advantage because. these have been in vain. it will make the Philippines more reliant on the U. say that a person travels in America and becomes genuinely fond of the country and people. For instance. is behind the South China Sea and Diaoyu Islands disputes. US senators and party leaders have to pay more attention to China's ideologies. despite the fact that it will certainly suspect the U. leaving a still-existing vacuum where the truth should be.S. AT . China cannot openly blame the U.S. However. By the same token. will not get a true picture of the other country. As one of the many interest groups in the United States.Elections DA 108/150 huge business opportunities and an expanding market. The Presidential Election and US-China Relations. But unlike Iraq and the North Korea. Is that true or is the U. to some degree. But as far as I know. Despite this. Q: What about China's domestic issues? For instance. including human rights issues.S. will definitely not become involved in the dispute.com/political-social-development/the-presidential-election-and-us-china-relations/. with regard to global hegemony. the Chinese Communist Party organ. China is not yet strong enough to displace the U. Most people. Was it plotted in advance or was it simply a coincidence? Official voices from both sides gave different explanations. Romney promises that. 4-25-2012. The seemingly useless efforts made by the two sides are essentially aimed at lulling the other into a false sense of security. Straits Times – US Bureau Chief. or China.S.S. Even getting involved in people-to-people communication does not negate wider existing differences. has never believed China's promise of a peaceful rise. Valley High School Rishi Shah other? Wang Jisi: Chinese people and American people hold rather different values from each other. On the other hand.S. the U. and Taiwan.S. for you cannot deal with Taiwan when it doesn't actually need weapons. which serves as a coordinator among different interest groups.S. in the belief that China's economic systems are detrimental to their business. Romney Hurts Relations Romney will destroy US-China relations – his views create a competitive atmosphere from day one Stokes. As to the current issues. point of view. China should improve its international standing by achieving targets which are within its reach and control.‖ He also promises to get tough on China on ―day one‖ by labeling China out as a currency manipulator (although that promise goes against his earlier record on trade enforcement and the positions taken by his top trade policy advisor).

Brookings Institution. even though American military power remains far superior to that of China. Sino-American relationship. 5 (Michael E. JKE) Ultimately. in the belief that Washington might use its superior military capabilities to protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack as the island moved toward independence. His experiences growing up in the US during the height of the Cold War and his personal visits to China over the years appear to have done as much to shape his deeply mistrustful view of communism and authoritarian states .Elections DA 109/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah (Chua Chin. Efforts to strengthen deterrence. And third. JKE) The former Massachusetts governor has called China a 'cheat' on economic and trade issues.edu/opinions/2005/0501asia_ohanlon.aspx. which may ebb and flow month to month but nonetheless remains quite real. accessed 7-9-2012. in other words. Others cite the influence of his stable of neo-conservative advisers. Many regard the tough rhetoric as being politically motivated.. Mr Zoellick is more right than wrong. pg. Chinese officials will be less bellicose and more patient if they believe Washington is not colluding with Taipei to favor independence. although many in China as well as Europe cannot quite believe it. China is serious about being willing to risk war to prevent Taiwan's secession.com/commnews/shownews. the Chinese do not need to equal US power to make any war over nearby Taiwan very challenging for American . the extent to which the United States and Taiwan must rely on deterrence is inversely related to the success of Washington's efforts to reassure China that it is committed to the status quo. There really is a chance of a Sino-US war over Taiwan. 4 (Michael D.asp?newsid=59907&category=featured. Brookings Institution – Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy. must be carefully coordinated with a larger strategy of reassurance if stability is to be maintained. First. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s China Program – Senior Associate and Co-Director.a trait that could weigh heavily on the future trajectory of bilateral ties. http://www. more cooperative. and wants to vastly expand US naval power so as to preserve American supremacy in the Pacific. Trouble in Taiwan. March/April 2004. The reasons are simple. Issue: 2. 4-18-2012. Foreign Affairs. such efforts are likely to be more successful if greater levels of trust can be created through the establishment of a stronger. Insufficient reassurance---even if it is combined with a strong deterrence posture--could eventually provoke China into a desperate use of force. Second.. As President Bush has recognized. They are likely to be less successful if the relationship is allowed to deteriorate through insufficient attention to each other's interests. China-Taiwan conflict goes nuclear O’Hanlon. Volume: 83. http://www. The Risk of war over Taiwan is real.ytlcommunity. And any European decision to lift the embargo could make any war more likely and more costly in lives and assets. Romney‟s Tough Talk on China Sparks Concern. In the absence of strong constraints on future hightechnology sales. 39-49. JKE) Nonetheless. But a closer examination suggests that Mr Romney's views on China have not been entirely shaped by the political needs of the moment. A failure to do so would allow China to establish regional hegemony or even a 'global alliance of authoritarian states'. the US is just as serious about defending Taiwan. accessed 7-9-2012.brookings. Straits Times. EBSCO. lifting the European arms embargo on China would be a big mistake. Taiwan Impact Strong US-China relations prevent China-Taiwan War Swaine. accessed 7-92012. 5-1-2005.

Similar conflict marks efforts to reinvigorate the world economy and ease global economic imbalances by reducing America's huge trade and budget deficits and narrowing China's multibillion-dollar trade surplus. The United States and China are the two biggest economies and greenhouse gas emitters and are linked by $250 billion a year in trade. China's leaders operate on the assumption that Taiwanese secession would doom their own prospects for holding on to power. the conflict is emblematic of a range of areas. The U.S. A year after Obama's visit to China. rather than insisting on immediate reunification. In climate.S. They worry that if Taiwan broke away. "On the main issues. from climate to technology to reducing strains in the the global economy. an increasingly nationalistic population does as well. therefore." said Derek Scissors. In fact. accessed on 7/7/12. which would increase the spending power of Chinese families. At a minimum. Whether they can cooperate is likely to be key to restoring the world economy to health and creating an effective program to forestall climate change. But it has restrained the rise of its yuan against the dollar. Beijing. pressure to ease currency controls that critics say keep its yuan weak and swell China's trade surplus. Beijing committed to boost its domestic consumption to cut reliance on exports and fuel demand for imports. the envisioned partnership has largely evaporated. On the eve of Hu's U. visit. US deterrence of China could fail and the world's first true war between nuclear weapons states could ensue. meaning that even an unsuccessful military operation might be preferable to inaction. The stakes are significant. there is open hypocrisy on both sides. Cooperation in climate change talks has been rare. citing its need to reduce poverty and avoid financial shocks. it would encourage other separatist movements in places such as Tibet and Xinjiang province. But across many economic issues they are moving toward conflict. It is not just China's ruling communist party that considers Taiwan a part of China. EW) BEIJING — In late 2009. where Beijing sees its interests as very different from Washington even as they pledge cooperation. has filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization against China's policies favoring its producers of wind and solar equipment. officials advise Beijing in fields from health to environmental enforcement. President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao announced an ambitious array of joint clean energy research projects touted as a mark of a maturing relationship and an alliance to fight climate change.S.Elections DA 110/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah forces.html. On the U. and weaken China strategically at the very moment it is poised to regain its status as a global power. has rejected binding greenhouse gas limits and U.S. . side. http://www. Economy/Warming Impact US China Relations key to environment and economy McDonald 11 (Jon.huffingtonpost. an economist at the Heritage Foundation. Given the right catalyst from Taipei. a Washington think tank. they would have to show they had gone the extra mile to try to prevent secession.com/2011/01/17/us-china-clash-on-energy_n_810002. a listless economy and high unemployment make it politically harder for Washington to argue for cooperation and add to pressure on Obama to press China over trade complaints. 1/17/11.S. the two governments trade accusations that they are blocking progress. The two governments have worked over the past decade to forge ties with regular Cabinet-level meetings and U. the Chinese see themselves as patient and restrained because they are simply demanding that Taiwan not secede. Analysts expect a Chinese trade surplus this year of about $200 billion – the same as 2010.

even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining . Republican President Bush administration. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises. If we let it get beyond that point there is nothing we can do. First. Several notable contributions follow. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states. in a comparable manner to drug addicts who pursue an elusive "high". Humanity is being taken to its destruction by a greed-driven elite. 213-215] Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. has only sought to "buy time" against his critics. heat waves. the end of civilization as we know it and in all probability the end of humankind's several million year old existence. Only then do we stand a good chance of keeping carbon concentrations in the atmosphere below 430 parts per million. but a 90% cut by 2030 (1). which is on a path of mass "The scientific debate about human induced global warming is over but policy makers . contain 3. The biosphere takes over as the primary source of carbon. Alternatively. p. "(T)he science is clear. 2010." Economic decline causes protectionism and war – their defense doesn’t assume accompanying shifts in global power. a geologist writing in the Baltimore Sun. reported Bill Henderson in CrossCurrents. and the security of others. The Stephen planetary destruction. Ticking Time Bomb by John Atcheson . Science Editor. rather than a matter of basic human survival. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson‘s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. If strict global environmental security measures are not immediately put in place to keep further emissions of greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere we are looking at the death of billions. we might have already put enough extra greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to have crossed a threshold to these bombs exploding. Global warming isn't just warmer temperatures. called clathrates. which means that only then do we stand a good chance of preventing some of the threatened positive feedbacks. ― Scientists say Humanity ignores Antarctic melting and Greenhouse gas time-bombs with the price of Mass-Extinction‖ The Canadian) Global Warming continues to be approaches by governments as a "luxury" item. It is out of our hands. exogenous shocks such as economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. Given time lags of 30-50 years. DoD Cooperative Threat Reduction Director. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. methane in Arctic peat bogs and in methane hydrates melting in warming ocean waters. It is apparent that The Stephen Harper government has no commitment to providing any leadership on Canadian or global There are 'carbon bombs': carbon in soils. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. "For several decades it has been hypothesized that rising temperatures achievement of the minimum standards set on greenhouse gas emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.S. not a 60% cut by 2050." George Monbiot says. Goldsmith and Brauer.‖ in Economics of War and Peace: Economic. These ices. the U.Elections DA 111/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Warming will kill all humans Stein 7 (David. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. on the systemic level. along with the extinction of most flora and fauna beloved to man in the world we share. Harper minority government backed by Alberta "Big Oil". (and mount a disingenuous public relations campaign under a new Minister of the Environment). 1995). Global Warming and the pre-emptive war against Iraq are part of the same self-destructive prism of a political-military-industrial complex. dyadic and national levels.S. are intoxicated by "the high" of pursuing ego-driven power. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. Royal. Department of Defense. We need not a 20% cut by 2020. Legal and Political Perspectives. ―Economic Integration. their released greenhouse gases leading to ever accelerating global warming with future global temperatures maybe tens of degrees higher than our norms of human habitation and therefore extinction or very near extinction of humanity." Bill Henderson further elaborates.still seem to not understand the scope of the impending tragedy. from increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to burning fossil fuels could be releasing some of and eventually all of these stored carbon stocks to add substantially more potent greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. backed by techniques of mass-deception. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. carbon in warming temperate and boreal forests and in a drought struck Amazon. Methane is more than 20 times as strong a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide.000 times as much methane as is in the atmosphere. As such. ed. irrespective of the threat of pursuing that "high" poses to their own basic survival. Scientific understanding increasingly points to runaway global warming leading to human extinction". "There are enormous quantities of naturally occurring greenhouse gasses trapped in ice-like structures in the cold northern muds and at the bottom of the seas. which include 'Big Oil' and other related interests. melting ice and threatened polar bears. is the best and almost only mainstream media explanation of runaway global warming and how close we are to extinction. and a confederacy of other elites associated with a neoconservative oriented political-military-industrial complex. These elites.let alone the happily shopping general public . 10 [Jedediah Royal.

particularly during periods of economic downturn. 2004). Moreover. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. ‗Diversionary theory‘ suggests that. on a dyadic level. They write. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. and Blomberg. However. Gelpi (1997). Seperately. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Hess. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‗future expectation of trade‘ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavious of states. crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. dyadic and national levels. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. (Blomberg & Hess. Third. sitting governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a ‗rally around the flag‘ effect. Hess. Second. Miller (1999). if the expectations of future trade decline. which in turn returns the favor. 1999). 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. Wang (1996). and thus weak Presidential popularity. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. Copeland‘s (1996. Furthermore. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. In summary. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. . P. 2002. DeRouen (1995). This implied connection between integration. Crisis could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. medium and small powers. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic.Elections DA 112/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah power (Werner. & Weerapana. the likelihood for conflict increases. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states.

Lewis said. ―I don’t think there’s a desire to have a vote if they think they’re going to lose. capability to keep its nuclear weapons in working order without testing and on the capacity to identify atomic detonations in other nations. Department of State 11 (The united states department of state. but I think this is going to be a little bit tougher. ―If the treaty is not seriously considered by the Senate until after 2012. Senate’s advice and consent on the accord. Iran. President Obama might wait to make his push until after publication of a new National Academy of Sciences report on the treaty.nti. Kimball said. http://www. The Case for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Some Key Points. Pakistan and the United States. editor of Global Security Newswire. The United States signed the pact in 1996. September 1. methodical process to lay the groundwork for Senate consideration of the CTBT. serious about putting this to a vote. and will not push for one until we have done the engagement work needed to secure approval. according to Lewis.gov/t/avc/rls/171305.state.Elections DA 113/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah CTBT CTBT passage relies on Obama‘s reelection Schneidmiller 11 (Chris Schneidmiller. Israel. bringing it that much closer to becoming international law. Before seeking a vote. The White House is already taking heat over what Republicans say are inadequate attempts to rein in suspected proliferation activities in nations such as Iran and Syria (see GSN. The stakes are significant: U. at least in the near term. ―Currently. there has to be a strategy‖ for persuading the Senate to endorse the treat y.‖ said Lewis. thorough assessment of the ability to detect secret nuclear tests. and I don’t think the votes are there yet. nuclear arsenal without testing. May 11). July 15).org/gsn/article/senate-decision-key-to-future-of-test-ban-treaty/) WASHINGTON – The Obama administration is preparing for a lobbying campaign that could determine the future of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (see GSN. Kimball said in a recent issue brief. Washington is among 44 capitals that must ratify the test ban before it can enter into force. director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. would hinge on Obama’s re-election. July 18. but three years later the Clinton administration ratification effort ran into a brick wall of skeptical lawmakers. ―I don’t think [the Obama administration is]. we should act before the 2012 elections. The Senate voted 51-48 against approval. "In my judgment. Indonesia. the Senate’s ratification last year of the U. The new report is undergoing classification review.‖ Kimball said. The two years it took Moscow and Washington to negotiate and approve New START ―was relatively fast for a treaty.S. ―It’s not enough for the Obama administration to point to a really fast computer. ―I would hope that the issue of the test ban treaty does not become a partisan political football because there is strong Republican support for the test ban treaty out there. proponents say.) suggested at the Arms Control Association’s annual meeting in May that the Senate might not take up the treaty until after the 2012 election. approval could draw other holdout nations into the treaty regime. March 30). and the ability to catch any state that attempts to cheat. Prolif CTBT is key to prevent proliferation US. the administration intends to carry out a program to educate lawmakers and the public on the value of the treaty. Failure would provide those states with continued reason to dismiss the pact -.‖ Several analysts agreed that the White House would not begin the fight until it felt secure the result would be an improvement on the last time a Democratic president tried to persuade the Senate to approve the treaty. executive director of the Arms Control Association. the administration will be able to point to advancements since 1999.‖ It added: ―We are not moving for a Senate vote.‖ That plan. Senator Robert Casey (D-Pa. It is in our national security interest to prevent other states from advancing their nuclear weapon capabilities. Thirty-five nations have taken that step. echoing time line estimates from other observers. In arguing for ratification. http://www. leaving only China.though critics say they might do that anyway. Kimball said. whether all CTBT member states have accepted an absolute ban on any trial blasts. that will be because it took that much time to sort through the issues and to develop enough support to go ahead with the final stages of the ratification effort. Should he be defeated next year. while the chamber as a whole must be informed of technical developments since 1999 that would promote entry into force. Politics plays a role in congressional policy debates and nuclear security will be a topic of discussion during the 2012 presidential election campaign.-Russian New START nuclear arms control pact is cause for optimism about the test ban’s chances on Capitol Hill. 2011. 2011. The effort would address issues likely to be debated in the Senate -the viability of the U.‖ Rumblings so far from the GOP side have not favored ratification. but has not been seen by most lawmakers.S.S. ―They did very well on New START. Government agency. He said the administration should take whatever time is needed to see the test ban passed. though. we are in the process of engaging with members of the Senate and their staff on the importance of the CTBT.‖ the State Department said last month in a statement to Global Security Newswire. Thirteen GOP senators voted in favor of the bilateral agreement. India. according to Kimball. I don't have a high degree of confidence that we will. Obama has also pledged $85 billion over the next decade for modernizing the nuclear complex. don’t expect one anytime soon. Still to be determined are when that will occur and whether the White House can overcome entrenched divisions on Capitol Hill to secure necessary Republican support for ratification. the pact would almost certainly remain frozen in place in Washington. ―We continue a long.‖ according to Kimball. A classified National Intelligence Estimate on the matter was sent to Capitol Hill last August.S. The follow-up to a2002 academy study is expected to assess the effect that ratification would have on the U. Administration officials have declared in recent months that they intend to follow through on their long-stated pledge to seek the U. Newer senators must be briefed on the matter. an objective that would be reinforced through the .htm) The CTBT helps restrain further nuclear weapons proliferation. Senate Decision Key to Future of Test Ban Treaty. A two-thirds affirmative vote would be required for the United States to become a full participant in the accord.‖ Only 41 lawmakers who considered the treaty in 1999 remain in the Senate. which could take weeks or years.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Ellen Tauscher has said on multiple occasions this year (see GSN. Egypt. including the near-completion of the International Monitoring System for detecting nuclear blasts and supercomputing power used in modeling the workings of the weapons." the lawmaker said. North Korea. said Daryl Kimball. said arms control specialist Jeffrey Lewis. The document is said to offer an updated. Still.

From 1945 to 1992. the Secretaries of Defense and Energy from both Democratic and Republican Administrations. and stability. it is possible for states to develop fission weapons. Research Institute for Defense Analysis. Second. The United States possesses the most extensively tested and certified nuclear arsenal in the world and remains the world‘s pre-eminent conventional weapons superpower. we now have a greater ability to detect testing. our national technical means remain second to none and we continue to improve them. Think about that for a moment. Strictly from the perspective of limiting the effects of war. Upon the Treaty's entry into force. and effective. for one. more established nuclear weapons states seeking to deploy advanced nuclear weapon capabilities that deviated significantly from previously tested designs also would have serious doubts about reliability. Yet. A ban on nuclear explosive testing will prevent more established nuclear weapon states from confirming the performance of more advanced nuclear weapon designs that have not been successfully tested in the past. Natural Disasters CTBT increases nuclear detection systems Tauscher. There are two standard answers to the question of what is at stake: human lives. Well over a decade ago. retain a modern nuclear weapons production complex. The lab directors tell us that Stockpile Stewardship has provided a deeper understanding of our arsenal than they ever had when testing was commonplace. a CTBT that has entered into force will hinder other states from advancing their nuclear weapons capabilities. secure. Without explosive testing. I do not believe that even the most vocal critics of the CTBT want to resume explosive nuclear testing. and to do it without explosive testing. The Nonproliferation Review Fall) This brings us then to the question of what is at stake in the effort to combat proliferation. One. there is a very high risk of getting caught. And each year they have affirmed that we do not need to conduct explosive nuclear tests. this Administration inherited an underfunded and underappreciated nuclear complex. The stability argument relates to the unintended consequences associated with acquiring weapons of mass destruction. ―ELLEN TAUSCHER. the absence of U. ratification of the Treaty continues to limit our ability to promote a global ban. Taken together. every day. . Nuclear Biological Chemical weapons are weapons of mass destruction. Our nation has been able to maintain military superiority while also observing a unilateral testing moratorium for almost twenty years. If you test. UNDER SECRETARY FOR ARMS CONTROL AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY. Proliferation leads to extinction Roberts 99 (Researcher at the Institute for Defense Analysis. 26 Sep 2011. not a single certified IMS station or facility existed. we launched an extensive and rigorous Stockpile Stewardship program that has enabled our nuclear weapons laboratories to carry out essential surveillance and warhead life extensions. jld) Our case for Treaty ratification consists of three primary arguments. even machetes in the hands of drunk young men are the real weapons of mass destruction. We know more now about our nuclear weapons than when we used explosive testing. states interested in pursuing or advancing their nuclear weapons programs would have to either risk deploying weapons uncertain of their effectiveness or face international condemnation and possible sanctions for conducting nuclear tests. Every year for the past 15 years. To those who doubt our commitment.Elections DA 114/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah adoption and entry into force of the global. Despite the narrative put forward by some. these verification tools would make it difficult for any state to conduct nuclear tests that escape detection. While states can build a crude first generation nuclear weapon without conducting nuclear explosive tests. legally binding CTBT. At a time when every part of the budget is under the microscope. Political Transcript Wire. I. small arms. Were the CTBT to enter into force. While IMS capabilities continue to grow. We understand why some senators had doubts about its future. Two. the United States conducted more than 1. states interested in pursuing or advancing a nuclear weapons program would risk either deploying weapons that might not work or incur international condemnation and sanctions for testing. The President has committed to programs that we believe require an investment of $88 billion in funding over the next decade.S. our pledge to pursue these programs demonstrates our commitment and should not be discounted.000 nuclear explosive tests . a CTBT that has entered into force will obligate other states not to test and provide a disincentive for states to conduct such tests. Proquest. and the directors of the nuclear weapons laboratories have certified that our arsenal is safe. and much more quickly than conventional weaponry (though it too is capable of killing millions). 11 (Ellen. What they have chosen instead is a status quo where the United States refrains from testing without using that fact to lock in a legally binding global ban that would significantly benefit the United States. 286 of 337 monitoring facilities have been installed. In 1999 when the Senate first considered the CTBT. all of them. Under secretary for arms control and international security. would not trade our successful approach based on world-class science and technology for a return to explosive testing. Let me take these points one by one. A regional war employing mass destruction as a matter of course could cause suffering and death unknown in human experience. Finally. the United States would use the International Monitoring System (IMS) to complement our own state of the art national technical means to verify the Treaty. untested capabilities. but without testing there would always be uncertainty how well they would perform. And three. With or without nuclear explosive testing. and nurture a highly trained workforce. But today the IMS is nearing completion. They work and provide valuable data all day. The cumulative data gathered from these tests have provided an impressive foundation of knowledge for us to base the continuing effectiveness of our arsenal. REMARKS ON THE NEW START TREATY AND THE CTBT: TWO ESSENTIAL STEPS TOWARD FULFILLING THE PRAGUE AGENDA‖. thus abiding by the core prohibition of the CTBT. though in different ways. including its monitoring system and inspection provisions. But historical test data alone is insufficient. These investments will help maintain a modern nuclear arsenal. including both preemptive and accidental war. Our current efforts go a step beyond explosive testing by enabling the labs to anticipate problems in advance and reduce their potential impact on our arsenal-something that nuclear testing could not do. With a global ban on nuclear explosive tests. the world community has an interest in preventing the emergence of an international system in which the possession and use of Nuclear Biological Chemical weapons is accepted as normal and customary. It focuses on the weapons-acquiring state and its neighbors and the risk of war that grows among them.more than all other nations combined. a capability that will be enhanced by the CTBT. then. we have become very good at detecting explosive testing. We have worked tirelessly to fix that situation and ensure our complex has every asset needed to achieve its mission. the United States no longer needs to conduct nuclear explosive tests. Such a war would cast a harsh light on the argument now in vogue that landmines. I ask them to put their doubts aside and invest the hard work to support our budget requests in the Congress. The most deadly of these weapons systems can kill millions. they would have trouble going further with any confidence.

the United States has agreements with those countries. In addition to its primary mission. 365 days a year. uses USGS seismic data and a range of sensors in oceans around the world to issue earthquake and tsunami warnings for Hawaii. he said. we will notify the U.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami affected hundreds of thousands of people and damaged the Fukushima Daichi power plant in Japan. or in areas like California or New Zealand that have lots of seismic activity.org. 2011. Atomic Energy Detection System has monitored the planet for nuclear blasts since 1947. That's a positive aspect. and our seismic stations started to expand. "They don't have the requirements that we do -. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.primarily the FBI -. "We install our systems in areas where there is very low seismic noise. We analyze data as soon as it comes into the building. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii. and the system was recruited to support U." O'Brien said.S. Austria. Also in May. probably close to where the then-Soviet Union was testing [nuclear devices]." O'Brien said. he said. "but we go very much lower than a disaster network might go.monitor the planet for underground nuclear explosions." he said. "we would be the single point for the nation to do analysis of that debris for the attribution process. efforts in response to the Japanese nuclear reactor accident." The USGS National Earthquake Information Center in Colorado has a domestic network of seismic stations called the Advanced National Seismic System. seven days a week. its revenge on us for challenging its laws beyond acceptable limits? The earthquake that ." Whether radioactivity is detected by the Department of Energy or AFTAC's aircraft or the FBI. "When nuclear testing was forced underground [in the 1970s]. we don't care. and it is part of an international system called the Global Seismographic Network. O'Brien said.eg/2005/724/op3.a large earthquake. "but not all. "If it's a very large earthquake. "We deployed our WC-135 aircraft to collect air over the ocean east of Japan to determine radioactivity levels there." In that effort. is building a global network of sensors and other program elements that ultimately will help enforce the treaty. Energy and Justice -.ahram." he said. Al-Ahram Weekly. ―Defense Nuclear Monitoring System Helps in Disasters‖.htm. That includes seismic and hydroacoustic stations. The team. "Our responsibility is to provide immediate notification if an explosion occurs anywhere in the world. and the Indian Ocean region. he said." O'Brien said. called USAEDS. In the meantime. this is an earthquake [but] it's large and it could be causing a lot of damage so we will immediately let the USGS know. 25 countries in the Pacific Ocean basin.S. "When we signed the treaty." the scientist added. this state-of-the-art system. an interagency effort that involves the departments of Homeland Security. soil to participate in the system. It's called attribution. "Each country can decide whether or not they want pressed into service." he added. USAEDS runs 24 hours a day. was the National Technical Nuclear Forensics Program. And the system's 40 seismic stations around the world -using the same technology scientists use to measure earthquakes -. "The USGS may have their stations close to cities where there's lots of vibration in the ground. Proquest.S. But the increasingly sophisticated tools the network uses in this effort also have more downto-earth applications. in real time from all these worldwide sensors. Jul 14. American Forces Press Service. Atomic Energy Detection System looks for sometimes-subtle indicators of an atomic explosion. "Our first station was in Turkey. ―The Post-earthquake World". part of the U. a figure that is expected to rise still more over the coming period. "Data is continually coming in. "This is not a nuclear explosion.S.The Defense Department's U. As part of the system. National Science Foundation and an organization called the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology formed the international system. Geological Survey. he added. headquartered in Vienna. "but because we have been doing analysis on radioactive debris for many years and have laboratories in the United States that support us." he added.S. but whether they give it to somebody else or not. So if anything cataclysmic happens anywhere on Earth -." O'Brien said. Mohamed SidAhmed is a political analyst. So far. radioactivity and other telltale signs of nuclear explosions. http://weekly. January 2005. Is this Nature's reaction to the abuse it is suffering at the hands of the human race.Elections DA 115/150 Nuclear detection systems key to detecting natural disasters Valley High School Rishi Shah Pellerin. "would respond to a nuclear explosion in the United States for the purpose of trying to determine who did it. program established through the Department of Homeland Security after the Sept. resulting not from conflicts between people but from an unprecedented natural disaster that has so far claimed over 155.S. which has more than 150 seismic stations around the world. USGS. The system's hydroacoustic sensors are microphones that listen for nuclear explosions under the sea. "The United States is part of the International Monitoring System. but its sensors also help to pinpoint and assess large natural disasters around the world. which is responsible for participating in the International Tsunami Early Warning System. "we started establishing more of our overseas sites. very small explosions" that may occur underground during a nuclear test. USAEDS would use its aircraft to sample radioactive debris.S. The treaty opened for signature in 1996 and is signed by most countries in the world but not yet ratified by enough countries to put the treaty into force. 2011 . referring to the lowest-level magnitude the system can detect. 11 (Cheryl. USAEDS also contributes to a U. has been the responsibility of the Air Force Technical Applications Center at Patrick Air Force Base.) RS The year 2005 began with a calamity. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in 2001. which we have not ratified yet. The result. system sensors conform to the highest technical standards and operate day and night." The U. "Some of the sites we have in our USAEDS network also contribute to the IMS. we would oversee all the analysis of radioactivity. AFTAC experts have advised the organization about building its 337-facility network.000 lives.to look for very." he said. probably in the late 1950s. monitors for nuclear explosions but also detects natural disasters is the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization's International Monitoring System." In May." O'Brien said. Fla." In foreign countries where USAEDS has established seismic sites. "I can't tell you how low we go. "We want the data.0.the system knows about it. Security. the scientist said." Natural disasters cause extinction Sid-Ahmed 05 (Mohamed. we agreed to put stations on U. the U. "The USGS probably has detected it too." O'Brien said. "The Army would do ground sampling. we had to switch over to more dependence on things like seismic sensors. "although [sharing the data] certainly benefits the International Monitoring System. like the Defense Department. Infrasound sensors measure changes in the atmosphere generated by very-low-frequency acoustic waves that can come from above-ground nuclear explosions. American territories in the Pacific. O'Brien said. 365 days a year. jld) WASHINGTON." O'Brien said." he said. "As time went on and more and more testing was going on underground. he added." O'Brien said." he said." O'Brien said. USAEDS was explained. for example -." Unlike many disaster and research networks." Because of AFTAC's critical mission to detect and report nuclear blasts. anything over about magnitude 6. "but this augments their information as well. radionuclide sensors that are part of the International Monitoring System picked up traces of radioactive particles and gases from the stricken power plant. "The USGS is really looking for big earthquakes. "One thing the [new] Department of Homeland Security had to address was the possibility that a terrorist could detonate a nuclear device in the United States. Since 1980.as well as the Defense Department and the intelligence community. the treaty organization. But there's a big difference between these dedicated disaster warning systems and AFTAC's nuclear detection network. July 14. American Forces Press Service. the scientist said. he said.S. AFTAC's job is to make sure foreign nations adhere to three nuclear test-ban treaties that have been in force since the 1960s and 1970s and that prohibit nuclear testing in the atmosphere and some underground tests. a WC-135 aircraft flies to the sites of explosions and collects air that scientists on the ground analyze for radioactive particles and radioactive gases." AFTAC chief scientist David O'Brien told American Forces Press Service. Another network that. more than 35 radionuclide stations have provided information on the spread of radioactivity from the Fukushima accident. after a 9. The system's seismic stations "most certainly detected the earthquake and many aftershocks. USAEDS has sensors on Global Positioning System and Defense Support System satellites that monitor space and Earth's atmosphere for light flashes. O'Brien to contribute to the International Monitoring System" or any other seismic network. and both AFTAC and the United States contribute data to the system.

vaccines and medicines are formidable. with certainty. forcing us to re-examine our understanding of the existing world system. ―The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: An Update on the Debate‖. Browne.S. not to say cosmic. Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory. components. Japan. a different type of inter-human relations which rise to the level of the challenge before contradictions between the various sections of the world community make that collective effort unrealisable? The human species has never been exposed to a natural upheaval of this magnitude within living memory. Nuclear testing is the only way to validate. Is it possible to mobilise all the inhabitants of our planet to the extent and at the speed necessary to avert similar disasters in future? How to engender the required state of emergency.org/National%20Institute%20Press/Archives/Publication%20Archive%20PDF/CTBT%20Update. she currently serves on the US Secretary of State‘s Arms Control and Nonproliferation Advisory Board. Also. Actually. testified in 1999 that We also continue to find problems that were introduced during the original manufacturing of some specific weapons. exposing planet Earth to the end of its role as a nurturing place for human life. is currently a Senior Associate at the National Institute for Public Policy in Washington DC. most likely would have been resolved by nuclear testing. problems continue to arise. and procedures used in weapons remanufacture do not affect weapons performance. http://www.Elections DA 116/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah struck deep under the Indian Ocean was the strongest in over a century. whether by our own hand or as a result of natural disasters of a much greater magnitude than the Indian Ocean earthquake and the killer waves it spawned. March 2001. Dr. how can we contain the earthquake's effects ecologically. Despite the fact that weapons designs in the stockpile have been extensively tested. Some defects have been design flaws. Human civilisation has developed in the hope that Man will be able to reach welfare and prosperity on earth for everybody. others developed as a result of aging. that the new materials. nuclear weapons. solving deterrence Bailey 01 (Dr. Deterrence Nuclear testing makes our nukes look more powerful. National Institute for Foreign Policy. older processes and procedures may have to be changed (e. What happened in South Asia is the ecological equivalent of 9/11. US President George W Bush has announced the creation of an international alliance between the US. they are outd ated or unsafe by today‘s standards).pdf. "there is certainly a chance that we could have as many dying from communicable diseases as from the tsunamis". epidemics spread by waterborne diseases are expected to claim many thousands of victims.nipp.g. processes. meteorologically. warhead problems associated with manufacturing may be even more prevalent. that is. The logistics of providing the survivors with clean water. Will they build up into still broader disarray and eventually move our planet out of its orbit around the sun? Moreover. and. . even if we can avoid the worse possible scenario. But now things seem to be moving in the opposite direction. What is still more critical is that what we have witnessed so far is only the beginning of the catastrophe. some have been introduced during the weapons‘ manufacture. In the future. India.. economically and socially? The contradiction between Man and Nature has reached unprecedented heights. There is also the possibility of seismic activity elsewhere in the world because disturbances in the inner structure of the earth's crust have occurred and there are no means to foresee how they will unfold. This is due to the fact that older weapons will need to be remanufactured. Ecological problems like global warming and climatic disturbances in general threaten to make our natural habitat unfit for human life. a consultant on defense and arms control issues. with many thousands of bodies lying unburied. Australia and any other nation wishing to join that will work to help the stricken region overcome the huge problems it is facing in the wake of the tsunamis. if they had occurred when testing was active. Kathleen Bailey. Many materials and components used in original manufacture are no longer available and substitutes must be used. These changes could severely impact weapons reliability. The extinction of the species has become a very real possibility. We have identified several issues that. John C. the implications of the disaster are not only regional but global.) RS Many things can and have gone wrong with deployed U. Kathleen C. According to a spokesman from the World Health organisation.

S. Lexis-Nexis. Fall 2006) Today the U.000 operational strategic nuclear weapons deployed and constantly maintained so that they can be rapidly launched at predetermined targets. which many Russians have come to view as their country's sphere of influence. Strategic Forum. Alexey Pushkov. Editorial. Extinction Starr. ―Total Global Nuclear Arsenal 2006 ˜ 27. The firestorm would extinguish all life and destroy almost everything else within its boundaries .000 Nuclear Weapons With ˜ 5. ―Collision Avoidance: Us-Russian Bilatral Relations And Former Soviet States‖. JKE) Geopolitics: A highly ranked Russian official warns us that if we elects the Republican candidate there will be a major crisis in the first year. 1 geopolitical foe. president who unapologetically believes in American exceptionalism. Imagine this event . President Obama would be an "acceptable" partner for Russia in a second term. The second is the emergence of a powerful consensus among Russian politicians of all parties about the need to consolidate Russia's neighborhood into its exclusive sphere of influence. Romney upset Moscow with a CNN interview in March in which he said that Russia was "without question our No. Unless the United States and Russia make a deliberate and determined effort to work with each other. The first is the unprecedented American involvement in countries and regions on the Russian periphery. These weapons have a combined firepower of 3076 Megatons. for an all-out competition for influence in the former Soviet lands between the two nations would hurt the interests of both and--most importantly--undermine the fragile gains the region has made since independence. Not Romney." Pushkov also noted Romney's statements that the U. on the rhetorical side. "We think that Romney will be. would within tens of minutes create a mass fire over an area of 20 to 100 square miles. NC) The need for cooperation is dictated by two converging trends.Elections DA 117/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah **US-Russia Relations** 2NC Module Election determines US-Russia relations Investor’s Business Daily." Relations key to solve us/russia war Rumer. a replay of the Bush administration. an ally of President Vladimir Putin .000 Mt Total Yield‖. chairman of the international affairs committee of the State Duma. they fight for every cause for the world's worst actors. 2004 (Eugene. Investor‘s Business Daily. Didn't they say the same thing about the president who won the Cold War? Faced with the prospect of a new U. very troubling indeed.S." said Pushkov. Pushkov said. A single strategic nuclear weapon. which is more than 1000 times greater than the combined explosive force of all the bombs exploded in World War II. Each of these trends is a pillar of the two countries' respective national security strategies. and Russia keep 9. collision appears unavoidable. There would be no possible escape from the fire zone.S. Russia Hearts Obama. April 2004. "We don't think that for us Romney will be an easy partner. said in a recent interview that Russian leaders have noted likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney's comments with concern. July 5th (7-5-2012. when detonated above a city. should assert its dominance in the 21 st century. accessed 7-11-2012. This firestorm would generate ground winds of hurricane force with average air temperatures well above the boiling point of water . Cooperation is the only option. The idea that (Obama) has more flexibility in mind for Russia is very. 2006(Steven.

In December. the process of adopting and enforcing those rules is likely to be slow. but they're united with us on Iran. Putin arrives in Camp David for the G8 summit in May. China. and Pakistan. to ratify the accord. Romney expressed alarm that Obama had offered assurances to Russia."The former Massachusetts governor has increasingly trained his attacks on Obama while seeking to establish himself as the Republican candidate most likely candidate for the party's nomination to challenge the president in November. Europe. continually kept at launch-on-warning status. http://www. One of only two ways we're getting material into Afghanistan to our troops is through Russia ." Biden shot back during a Sunday interview on the CBS current affairs program "Face the Nation. Russia is still our major adversary..The two were hitting back at Romney for criticizing Obama last week after the Democratic president assured Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that he would have "more flexibility" to deal with the contentious issue of missile defense after the November 6 general election in the United States. Central AsiaCaucasus Institute. theUnited States must design a new relationship with this often difficult leader and his country. Just as the US and European Union pushed together for Chinese adherence to WTO rules on protection of intellectual property. or parliament. both domestically and internationally.- . accessed on 7/7/12. Reuters Journalist 12 (Morgan. While Putin has been somewhat skeptical of WTO accession. will still be important. who dismissed Romney's tough talk on Russia as being behind the times. Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sought to cast Romney as stuck in the days of the Cold War and unaware of the strategic interests that the United States and Russia share on Iran. Atlantic Council vice president. The US and Europe should push Russia to comple te its entry into the WTO and then begin close monitoring of its implementation of trade rules. By giving Russia – and Putin – a greater stake in strong relations with the West. When Mr.com/article/2012/04/01/us-usa-campaign-romneyrussia-idUSBRE8300FK20120401. The US and NATO engagement in Afghanistan is winding down.In separate interviews. Russia. It brought a new arms control treaty. accessed on 7/13/12. including business associations. The details of such a holocaust are already inscribed in the guidance mechanisms of themissiles waiting to deliver the warheads. but with thousands of strategic nuclear weapons detonating in the cities of the U. are capable of doing. property ownership. There is little likelihood of any significant progress in nuclear arms control because any new accord would require more meaningful reductions in weapons. Clinton told CNN that Romney needed to be more realistic about U. the reset can also create incentives for better behavior.S.reuters. Russia reached agreement with the WTO and its members – including the United States and European governments – on the terms of its accession. there is no other choice for Russia if the new government wishes to modernize an economy that‘s overly dependent on oil and gas exports. "We have disagreements with Russia. limited foreign policy and stuck in cold war David.com/Commentary/Opinion/2012/0404/Obama-must-reset-relationswith-Russia-along-economic-lines.."He acts like he thinks the Cold War is still on. 4/1/12.Biden and Clinton took aim at Romney's limited experience on foreign relations issues. Afghanistan and the world's oil supply. Foreign policy cooperation. and help in pressuring Iran. EW) Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Sunday came under political fire from two of President Barack Obama's top lieutenants. if there is an oil shutdown in any way in the Gulf. India. As with China. Obama Helps Relations Obama will reset US-Russia relations Burwell.Elections DA 118/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah happening. But this reset must have a more comprehensive goal: to integrate Russia more fully into the international economy and community. All that remains is for the Duma. 4/4/12. Now you have some idea of what the global nuclear arsenals. I don't know where he has been. WTO membership presents a valuable opportunity to strengthen rule-of-law in that country – including laws on contracts. and more firm and clear promotion of human rights and media freedom in Russia. Russian cooperation in transiting military material toAfghanistan. But simply continuing the reset along the same lines is a dead end. former Course Chair of Caucasus Area Studies at the Foreign Service Institute 12(Frances and Svante.""This is not 1956. including on Iran. http://www. that seek to make WTO membership an effective and practical reality Romney Hurts Relations Romney kills Russia Relations. which had been caught inadvertently by an open microphone. a diplomatic one that involves much closer coordination with European allies to present a united front to the Russians.Republicans seeking to oust Obama from the White House in November pounced on his comments.csmonitor. President Obama must be ready to lay out the framework for a new reset. This new approach should have three components: an economic one that uses Russia‘s anticipated entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) to boost support for rule-of-law and build stronger commercial ties."Meanwhile.. at the Kremlin. in less than an hour. they'll consider increasing oil supplies to Europe.S. and investment protection. EW) As Vladimir Putin prepares for his May inauguration and return to the Russian presidency. The US European Union should also support Russian organizations. which he called "our number one geopolitical foe. US-EU relations expert. so they must cooperate closely to gain Russian adherence to those rules and others. The ―Russian Reset‖ of President Obama‘s first term sought to overcome the strain in relations of recent years in order to achieve some specific foreign policy goals." Biden added. First. And Russia seems unwilling to pursue further sanctions against the Iranian threat of proliferation. and Cornell. with not one. the economics.

but Wong isn‘t doing him any favors here. Editorial.com/larison/revisiting-romneys-russiablunder/.N. One would expect a partisan opponent to try to find fault with a major administration initiative. ―Russia is a unique geopolitical challenge. and his criticism of New START washilariously bad.theamericanconservative. Investor‘s Business Daily. said in a recent interview that Russian leaders have noted likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney's comments with concern. Pushkov said. it holds vast energy reserves. http://www. Didn't they say the same thing about the president who won the Cold War? Faced with the prospect of a new U. it has a nuclear arsenal. by an anachronistic view of the world. contributing editor at The American Conservative. and there are still campaign advisers and would-be allies trying to argue that his error was actually a profound insight." Pushkov also noted Romney's statements that the U. There‘s nothing ironic in taking advantage of an opponent‘s erroneous statement. EW) Another part of the report on the Romney campaign‘s foreign policy predicamentidentifies a more significant problem. July 5th (7-5-2012. His complaints about missile defense are basically unfounded or deeply misleading. accessed on 7/4/12. Security Council." Romney policy director Lanhee Chen said in a statement. If the ―number one geopolitical foe‖ crack had been an isolated episode."Vice President Biden appears to have forgotten the Russian government's opposition to crippling sanctions on Iran. What should concern R epublicans is not that Romney isn‘t paying enough attention to foreign policy. chairman of the international affairs committee of the State Duma. 7/2/12. should assert its dominance in the 21 st century. It confirmed the impression that Romney‘s foreign policy is needlessly confrontational and informed have been embarrassing but not very important. it has a government that is backsliding into authoritarianism. he‘s supposed to put the best spin on a bad statement. but even when all of them are considered together it still makes absolutely no sense to describe Russia as ―our number one geopolitical foe. Granted. apparently uninformed nature of the attacks. "We don't think that for us Romney will be an easy partner.Elections DA 119/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Russian relations." said Pushkov. but it doesn‘t work very well. president who unapologetically believes in American exceptionalism. Romney wrecks US-Russian relations whereas Obama is more acceptable – Russian statements prove Investor’s Business Daily. it became a much bigger target for criticism. 7/2 (Daniel. What separates Romney‘s ―reset‖ -bashing from the usual attacks an inexperienced challenger makes is the shoddy.S.D in history. it was part of a pattern of Romney statements on policies related to Russia that have relied on fabrications and falsehoods. but because it was the sort of error on foreign policy that anyone could easily recognize as a blunder. Romney seems interested in provoking them into using it as often as possible." Romney bad for US-Russia Relations Larison. ―I thought it was quite ironic that the Obama campaign thought [the Russia] remarks were an opening for them [bold mine-DL]. Not Romney.‖ For some reason. On top of that. Everyone knows that Russia has ―vast energy reserves. accessed 7-11-2012.‖ Everyone knows that Russia has a nuclear arsenal. Romney upset Moscow with a CNN interview in March in which he said that Russia was "without question our No.N.‖ but for some reason Romney wants to treat it that way. Romney is on record opposing an arms reduction treaty that limits the size of that arsenal and re-establishes a verification regime to ensure compliance. Here the report quotes Romney‘s foreign and legal policy advise r. a replay of the Bush administration. on the rhetorical side. He said the candidate‘s Russia remark was a legitimate criticism of Obama‘s approach to Moscow.S." she said in an interview during a visit to Turkey. because he is giving every indication that this is what he would do. The remark was almost perfectly crafted to fit into the Obama campaign‘s plan to portray Romney as out-of-date and out-of-touch. Ph.S. its obstructionism on Syria and its own backsliding into authoritarianism. And Secretary Clinton herself asked recently of Russia. Romney isn‘t required to agree with current Russia policy. The idea that (Obama) has more flexibility in mind for Russia is very. it would Because it belonged to a pattern of errors related to policies concerning Russia. Eac h thing Wong mentions in this quote is basically correct.‖ said Wong. the governor also said an Iran pursuin g nuclear weapons was the greatest threat to the U. Wong said that in the same CNN interview. and it has shown a penchant for protecting some of the world‘s worst actors at the U. Russia isn‘t America‘s ―number one geopolitical foe.‖ Romney may not alw ays listen to his advisers. He made his ―number one geopolitical foe‖ blunder three months ago. where we don't agree. It lends credibility to the charge that Romney wants to return the country to the Bush era in foreign policy. JKE) Geopolitics: A highly ranked Russian official warns us that if we elects the Republican candidate there will be a major crisis in the first year. 'whose side are they on?'."I think it's somewhat dated to be looking backwards instead of being realistic about where we agree. very troubling indeed. but that he doesn‘t even seem to know when he has erred. President Obama would be an "acceptable" partner for Russia in a second term. which is that some of the people working on the campaign don‘t understand when their candidate has blundered. it holds a veto at the U. Everyone knows that Russia has a veto at the Security Council. 1 geopolitical foe.The Romney campaign quickly jumped to their candidate's defense.It was fairly obvious that Romney had given the other campaign an opening with his ―number one geopolitical foe‖ remark. The Obama campaign would have been mocked for inexcusable incompetence if they hadn‘t seized on the remark . an ally of President Vladimir Putin . Alex Wong: Wong declined to discuss his own qualifications for the job or the criticism that he is inexperienced. Alexey Pushkov. "We think that Romney will be. Russia Hearts Obama. Lexis-Nexis. Romney wants to antagonize the government that controls the supplies that Europe depends on for much of its energy. they fight for every cause for the world's worst actors. Romney‘s ―number one geopolitical foe‖ remark was so bad for him not just because it was clearly wrong.

On the other hand. ambassador during the George W. Bolton is a prominent supporter of Romney. Romney and by extension his campaign will need to fine-tune their argument why a Romney presidency would be more successful than the Obama presidency. While not necessarily on par with Hubert Humph rey by promising something to everyone while running for president in 2008 Obama made very substantive campaign promises that never materialized and have continued to haunt him. the U.no New-START and missile defense Lyman. Comprehensive immigration never saw the light of day.‖ Romney writes. accessed on 7/7/12. Antiwar assistant editor.S. http://antiwar. Administrative Editor. Bush administration and specialist on arms control and security issues. 7/7 (John. it opens candidate Romney to criticisms that he hasn‘t offered any substantive details about what he would do differently as president other than to offer very vague generic ―talking points‖. 6/21/12. . Someone might object that Bolton has a very poor chance of being confirmed for this position. the bin Laden raid. Many of Romney‘s foreign policy views sound very much like Bolton‘s. The fact that Bolton is even being considered for this position ought to provide all the confirmation anyone needs that Romney‘s positions on Iran and Russia in particular are more than just election-year demagoguery. perhaps it is a mistake to assume that Bolton couldn‘t be confirmed. United States Congressional Campaign. http://www.‖ Perhaps most ominous is Romney‘s conclusion that significant nuclear stockpiles are necessary as a deterrent to Russia. The American Conservative editorial assistant 6/21 (John. EW) Writing in the Washington Post in July of 2010 as debate surrounding the ratification of the New START Treaty was heating up in the U.S. That‘s a terrifying prospect. losing confirmation battle at the very beginning of his term. The treaty ignores tactical nuclear weapons. he might not nominate someone as polarizing and controversial as Bolton.com/blog/2012/06/21/vying-for-war-on-iran-romney-floatingbolton-for-sec-of-state/. Bolton. militants captured in Afghanistan and elsewhere are still being housed at Guantanamo Bay and while Obama did see the Affordable Care Act passed into law it was not without spending significant political capital and ―Obamacare‖ very well could contribute to Obama‘s defeat in November. Romney wrote. EW) John R. While. withdrawal from Iraq. decreasing the ranks of Al Qaeda. Does Romney believe that a nuclear war with Russia is still a possibility? Romney‘s muddled foreign policy message has been to place himself in opposition to every Obama administration policy and initiative from the Arab Spring to U.org/2012/07/07/romneysapproach-to-foreign-policy/. We should assume that a Bolton nomination is quite possible in the event of a Romney victory. our protection from nuclear-proliferating rogue states such as Iran and North Korea…And Russia has expressly reserved the right to walk away from the treaty if it believes that the United States has significantly increased its missile defense capability.-Russian relations. ―New-START gives Russia a massive nuclear weapon advantage over the United States. opening the Af-Pak border crossing for NATO and U. The hope that Romney‘s foreign policy statements are all campaign posturing and don‘t mean anything has always been just that–a hope. this might be expected. 7/7/12. supplies and a U. International Policy Digest. Foreign Policy Digest. But as November nears. where Russia outnumbers us by as much as 10 to 1. It‘s possible that Romney wouldn‘t be willing to go through a contentious.Campaign Rhetoric Romney Russia statements reveal actually policy outcomes Glaser. There is every reason to assume that Romney will govern in a fashion that would generally satisfy Bolton. but it‘s also not very surprising. and a Bolton confirmation might be as well.internationalpolicydigest. Policy Director. The treaty as submitted to the Senate should not be ratified…New-START impedes missile defense. Senate. While the Obama administration has had many misses they do have some areas that they can argue have been successful as in the complete U. is said to be a leading candidate for secretary of state. Editor-in-Chief. In this regard he might be avoiding Obama‘s problem. For that reason.N. ―(Obama‘s) New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New-START) with Russia could be his worst foreign policy mistake yet. AT .S. It is still fairly unusual for a new administration‘s major Cabinet nominations to be blocked by the other party. accessed on 7/13/12.-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement.S.Elections DA 120/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Romney kills Russia relations.S.

’09 (William and brent. Russia or theUnited Statescould launch missiles at predetermined targets: Washington or New York. Launch crews -.000 times greater than the atomic bomb that leveled Hiroshima -. the results would be catastrophic. causing the intended -. the detonation of a relatively primitive nuclear bomb in one American city would not be equivalent to the type of nuclear exchange that was feared during the Cold War. by rote. that good will was in short supply. Nonetheless.org/article/two-minutes-launch. 01(Morton Mintz is a former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter. This summer.html/print." Terrorism Impact Relations key to solve terrorism and prolif Perry and Scowcroft. accessed 6/26/11. "Within a half-hour. ―Nuclear Summer. if all went according to plan. The proliferation of nuclear weapons and fissile materials is thus dangerously close to a tipping point. 2/26/01. but the . the mutual diplomatic expulsions between Russia and the United Kingdom.are under orders to send the messages on receipt of a single computer-delivered command. In no more than two minutes.Elections DA 121/150 Accidents Impact Valley High School Rishi Shah Relations solve accidents and miscalculation Cirincione. ―US Nuclear Weapons Policy‖. we increasingly rely on good relations between the White House and the Kremlin to ensure that no Russian president will misinterpret a false alarm and make a catastrophic decision. Of course. behind the smiles at the ―Lobster Summit" in Maine. So. a nuclear war by checklist. Later in July. as more nations acquire nuclear weapons or the fissile material needed for nuclear weapons. "It would be.800 nuclear warheads -. http://prospect.html. with the devastation extending well beyond the staggering fatalities. and approximately 1. there are still tens of thousands of nuclear weapons in the world. or of a nuclear power making a tragic mistake. http://www. The threat of nuclear terrorism is already serious. and Iran appears to be following in its footsteps. Beyond this danger. basically. The American Prospect.weapons with a combined destructive power nearly 100. North Korea has developed a small nuclear arsenal. Moscow or St. Extinction Mintz.800 are on the ICBMs targeted by the United Statesat Russia. Chairs CFR.americanprogress.on duty every second of every day -. a new risk looms of a few nuclear detonations being set off by a terrorist group or a nuclear-capable rogue state.‖ 7/23/11. These missiles would launch on receipt of three computer-delivered messages. Director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. although the old danger of a massive nuclear exchange between great powers has declined. NC) The bitter disputes over national missile defense (NMD) have obscured a related but dramatically more urgent issue of national security: the4. Other states. there could be a nuclear war that would extinguish all of us . Hair-trigger alert means this: The missiles carrying those warheads are armed and fueled at all times. 1.org/issues/2007/07/nuclear_summer. The early-warning systems on which the launch crews rely would detect the other side's missiles within tens of seconds. NC) Despite nearly universal opposition. it could be detonated with catastrophic results ." explains Bruce Blair.or accidental -enemy to mount retaliatory strikes. are starting nuclear power programs modeled after that of Iran.currently on "hair-trigger" alert. which fields 185 nuclear weapons. weakening an important safety net crucial to preventing an accidental nuclear exchange. and. it will increase. If just one of these thousands of weapons fell into the hands of terrorists. 2007(Joseph. Two thousand or so of these warheads are on the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) targeted by Russia at the United States. The direct economic losses would amount to many hundreds of billions of dollars. Petersburg. april. NC) With Russian early-warning capabilities eroding. particularly in the Middle East. ratcheted tensions up another notch and should shake current complacent policies that take good relations for granted and scorn any further negotiated nuclear reductions.000 are on the submarine-based missiles targeted by the two nations at each other .

Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another.But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds.eg/2004/705/op5. This could lead to a third world war. What would be the consequences ofa nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet. especially if the detonation were in Washington. The social and political effects are incalculable. Japan. these allegations. High priority should be accorded to policies that serve to prevent such a catastrophe. But unless U. Today. Their success depends on the United States being able to work cooperatively with other countries. DC.the weapons used are less harmful than those used then. it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. at the time. The terror and disruption would be beyond imagination. except for the two bombs dropped on Japan. the technology is a secret for nobody.-Russia relations improve. we will all be losers. NC) A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki. including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. proved to be unfounded. police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights. it is difficult to imagine those two governments cooperating on future programs that require such a high level of mutual trust.S. from which no one will emerge victorious.S. U. 2004 (Mohamed. Societies would close in on themselves.and this is far from certain -. with no knowledge of nuclear technology. http://weekly. So far. specifically programs that reduce and protect existing nuclear arsenals and that keep new arsenals from being created.ahram. have international dimensions. government. Issue no. That such international cooperation can be successful is illustrated by the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program in the 1990s. as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD. As it turned out. This completely changes the rules of the game. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. most notably Russia. tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. had no choice but to capitulate.org. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. by their nature. and disabled a significant part of the U. ―Extinction!‖ August 26-September 1.Elections DA 122/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah indirect economic impact would be even greater. 705. Extinction Sid-Ahmed. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Managing Editor for Al-Ahali. .S. this war will be without winners and losers. All such preventive programs. nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures.htm. even if -.-Russian efforts on that program led to thousands of nuclear weapons and their launchers being dismantled and thus made the world safer.

win control of the House of Representatives and make gains in the Senate.com/id/39845295/US_Republican_Wins_Could_Be_Felt_in_Europe) A big Republican win in Tuesday's U. The third-ranking Republican lawmaker. foreign aid. Without a victory. 2012. Lugar of Indiana.-Russian relations. and President Barack Obama could find many of his priorities stalled or tripped up by lawmakers. The treaty. For instance. It also exhibits Mr. staff writer at the New York Times―Romney’s Adversarial View of Russia Stirs Debate‖. The passage of a resolution on Armenia could upend relations with Turkey. all of whom suggested that Mr. as expected. Since arms negotiations have been the centerpiece of Obama's opening to improve relations with Russia. a failure to ratify the treaty would be a setback. Rep. They put him in sync with the more conservative members of his party in Congress. which are unpopular politically. candidates from both parties railed against proposed legislation as antibusiness at a time of high unemployment and slow economic growth. ―US Republican Wins Could Be Felt in Europe‖ November 1. they will gain power over the budget and could force changes in funding for programs such as U. Obama's broader agenda on reducing the risk from nuclear weapons could be in doubt. Pure political partisanship after Tuesday's elections also could have foreign policy implications with Republican leaders in Congress talking about opposition. But in a twist of election law. In another possible pitfall for U. OPPEL Jr.S. Republican gains also could add uncertainties for relations with Turkey. like Senator Richard G. Defeat in the Senate would have two obvious consequences. Congress must first repeal the Jackson-Vanik agreement.Russia relations AP 10. borders. some Republicans and the Russians themselves. who helps guide party strategy in the House.cooperation impossible Oppel 5/11 (RICHARD A. it is unlikely that Obama can lobby effectively or a global pact that would bind the countries of the world to limits on greenhouse gasses. Romney‘s confidence that his private-sector experience would make him a better negotiator on national security issues than President Obama has been.S. which some would like to boost. Mr. Romney‘s views on Russia have set off disa greements among some of his foreign policy advisers. congressional elections could jolt U.nytimes. But a Republican win may not do much to advance global free trade talks.S. The election campaigns already have damaged Obama's chances of passing legislation that would curb climate-warming emissions. but some Republicans are not satisfied that the United States could verify whether Russia was sticking to its terms.-Russian relations could be the first foreign policy casualties of the election.S.S. It remains unclear whether Democrats can pick up enough Republican votes or have enough time to win passage in the postelections session.com/2012/05/12/us/politics/romneys-view-of-russia-sparks-debate. the impact will be felt beyond U. Mike Pence. legislation on reducing emissions. plans to ratify a nuclear test ban treaty already look beyond reach. Obama as being too accommodating to Russia. http://www. which has been dominated by economic and other domestic issues. Obama‘s . The issue has become a political loser domestically. But anger in both major parties has risen over Turkish conflict with Israel and ties with Iran. Obama will be looking for other initiatives that can improve his own re-election chances in 2012. Republicans are wary about handing Obama victories ahead of the 2012 elections. who was defeated in a primary this week. Republicans have traditionally supported the NATO ally. Though Congress does not run U. and generally reflect the posture of some neoconservatives. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to support free trade. In a sign of the legislation's unpopularity. and missile defense.S. Interviews with Republican foreign policy experts close to his campaign and his writings on the subject show that his stance toward Russia reflects a broader foreign policy view that gives great weight to economic power and control of natural resources. foreign policy. not compromise. But his statement was not off the cuff — and it was not the first time Mr. Getty Images Foreign policy has not been a factor in the campaign. With poor prospects for U. The Romney camp aign has been critical of Mr. http://www. would lower limits on the two countries' nuclear arsenals.(Associated Press. a Soviet-era regulation that can restrict bilateral trade. and the party‘s shrinking band of foreig n policy ―realists‖ — those who advocate a less ideological and more pragmatic view of relations with rival powers. Before the United States can approve Russia's bid. which some would like to cut. a rising power that vociferously opposes it. The administration has been trying for months to win enough Republican support in the Senate to ratify the New Strategic Arms Control Treaty with Russia. climate change and relations with Turkey. party leaders have blocked attempts to pass resolutions recognizing the World-War I-era killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks as genocide. has said he might reconsider opposition to a resolution because of Turkish positions on Israel. May 11.Elections DA 123/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Russia Relations Republican control destroys US. Obama's support for Russia to join the World Trade Organization could be blocked by Congress. In previous periods of Republican control of the House of Representatives. signed in April by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Obama's arms control agenda and U.cnbc. it can influence it in many ways.S. 2010. But they have frequently put him at odds with members of the Republican foreign policy establishment. The administration is pushing for a vote on New START shortly after the election before most newly elected senators are seated in January. If Republicans take over one chamber or two. If voters appear to rebuke him Tuesday. because it will be much more difficult with fewer Democrats in office next year. jld) WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney‘s recent declaration that Russia is America‘s top geopolitical adversary drew raised eyebrows and worse from many Democrats. But if Republicans. who have similarly criticized Mr. Romney had stirred debate over his hawkish views on Russia. Romney views Russia as the enemy. relations with Europe by affecting issues such as arms control. Romney was misguidedly stuck in a cold war mind-set. three newly elected senators will take office immediately after the election because they are running for seats that were vacated by predecessors including Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.S.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all.

President Vladimir V. But many of the positions taken by Mr. Some advisers close to Mr.000 U. Russia provides a vital supply line to 100. Through a combination of more than $11 billion in U. Tenth. the Russian lifeline has grown ever more important and now accounts for half all daily deliveries. one where Mr.Elections DA 124/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah record and positions on a variety of national security issues.S. cars daily. places first in most math competitions and dominates the world chess masters list. policymakers to advance our nation’s interests by engaging and working with Moscow. astronauts can now travel to and from the International Space Station is to hitch a ride on Russian rockets.000 U. Consider what a Russian president intent on frustrating U.S.cfm?uuid=161EF282-72F9-4D48-8B9C-C5B3396CA0E6) That central point is that Russia matters a great deal to a U. Just this week. Obama at Camp David.N. Security Councilresolutions. Seventh. It is no accident that Russia is one of the five veto-wielding. As citizens of a country that imports two of every three of the 20 million barrels of oil that fuel U. Ninth. along with the United States. As every president since John F. Nonetheless. Romney. often disappointing state to do business with. troops fighting in Afghanistan and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. First. Kennedy has recognized. is Russian-born Sergei Brin. This territory provides transit corridors for supplies to global markets whose stability is vital to the U. Russia figures prominently in Mr. Sixth. or failure. Russia’s brainpower is reflected in the fact that it has won more Nobel Prizes for science than all of Asia. goals would be significant in the balance of power to shape an environment in which China can emerge as a global power without overturning the existing order. Americans feel Russia’s impact at our gas pumps.S. Nuclear war Allison 10/31 (Graham. is an exception. Most major energy transport routes from Eurasia start in Russia or cross its nine time zones.S. Security Council. Russia plays an essential role in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and missile-delivery systems. . Russia’s potential as a spoiler is difficult to exaggerate. the former Massachusetts governor. Third. which it has used to muscle European countries dependent on energy imports.S. economy. Russia is a player whose choices affect our vital interests in nuclear security and energy. Romney. war to destroy Al Qaeda and combat other transnational terrorist groups. Director – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School. only to find that Russia can be a difficult partner. A Moscow more closely aligned with U.S. Ten realities require U. including containing Iran‘s nuclear ambitions and confronting China‘s rise. “10 Reasons Why Russia Still Matters”.N.S. difficult. has carved out a clear contrast to Mr. China and ―violent jihadism‖ embraced by Iran and terrorist groups. ratified by the Senate and signed last year by Mr. two decades after the collapse of the “evil empire.S. It is key to supplying 100. Fifth. Over the past decade. the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.S. Russia is the world’s largest oil producer and second largest gas producer. Romney. provided through the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program. Russian support in sharing intelligence and cooperating in operations remains essential to the U. success. and Former Assistant Secretary of Defense. relations with Pakistan have deteriorated. The co-founder of the most advanced digital company in the world. Russian than any other nation. have either been vague or not fundamentally different from those of the administration. Russia’s cooperation is critical to averting nuclear war . Romney was a leading opponent of the most recent arms-reduction treaty with Russia. Russia is our most consequential partner in preventing nuclear terrorism. in advancing our national interests. who declined to be quoted or identified by name. abutting China on the East.S. and impressive Russian professionalism. Russia.S. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s decision to return next year as president makes it all the more critical for Washington to manage its relationship with Russia through coherent. Russia remains the only nation that can erase the U nited S tates from the map in 30 minutes. say Russia is a good illustration of his belief that national security threats are closely tied to economic power — in this case stemming from Russia‘s oil and gas reserves. however. http://dyn. Romney‘s book. troops fighting in Afghanistan. aid. Politico. Obama. 2011. We should not overlook its many human rights and legal failures. Google. Eighth. No one denies that Russia is a dangerous. Obama. international objectives could do — from stopping the supply flow to Afghanistan to selling S-300 air defense missiles to Tehran to joining China in preventing U. Mr. Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations. Putin abruptly canceled his plans to visit the United States next week for the Group of 8 summit meeting and for talks with Mr.S. Russia is the largest country on Earth by land area. Moscow is an important player in today’s international system. Fourth. as well as a member of the G-8 and G-20. As U. The only way U.S. where he calls it one of four competitors for world leadership. who came to office promising to ―reset‖ relations with Moscow. realistic policies. Poland in the West and the United States across the Arctic. Russia has added more oil and gas exports to world energy markets Washington seeks to stop Iran’s drive toward nuclear weapons. government seeking to defend and advance its national interests. So next time you hear a policymaker dismissing Russia with rhetoric about ―who cares?‖ ask them to identify nations that matter more to U.” not one nucle ar weapon has been found loose. Blackwill. Second. As choices to sell or withhold sensitive technologies are the difference between failure and the possibility of success. and Robert D.com/printstory. permanent members of the U.politico.

Obama said on Thursday he never pursued the reforms because it was good politics. who then infect others. doubled-down on plans to repeal the law and held the court ruling as a call-to-arms for voters in the fall to support the effort as the last chance to stop it from taking effect. a nation's ability to go about its daily business. their persistence in the environment would be less than nuclear or biological agents or more localized. Azimi] Of all the weapons of mass destruction. May 2004. 04 (Shane. Romney on the other hand vowed in no uncertain terms that he would seek to repeal the law if elected. Any perceived military value or deterrence pales in comparison to the great risk these weapons pose just sitting in vials in laboratories. could also kill off most of life on earth and severely compromise the health of future generations. Biological weapons.freefromterror. and so on. 02 [Richard Ochs. chemical weapons would have a lesser effect on future generations of innocent people and the natural environment. ―Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately. once a localized chemical extermination is over. June 9. At the top of the ticket. on the other hand. leaders in both parties sought to spin things to their advantage. each infected individual becomes a human weapon. the genetically engineered biological weapons. The Black Death of the Middle Ages would be small in comparison to the potential damage bioweapons could cause. While a "nuclear winter. http://www. Bioterror leads to extinction Ochs. are an extreme danger to the continued survival of life on earth. in the case of diseases that are transmissible person to person. but because it was good policy." resulting from a massive exchange of nuclear weapons. Universal Healthcare is key to prevent bioterror Green. tying up medical responders and overwhelming medical resources. healthy people with easy access to health care.net/other_articles/abolish. while they can also kill millions of people outright. US News and World Report. both in preparation for and in response to an attack. many without a known cure or vaccine. ―Bioterrorism and Health Care Reform: No Preparedness Without.org/2004/05/pfor2-0405. is a population in which an introduced biological agent cannot get a foothold.‖ http://www. ie. Democrats basked in vindication after two years of enduring GOP attacks that the law was unconstitutional and receiving a beating during the 2010 mid-term elections.‖ http://virtualmentor. Accessed: July 5th 2012. can get out of control very easily. hence. Republicans and Democrats See Political Advantage in Healthcare Ruling. as the recent anthrax attacks has demonstrated. Ph D. 2002.ama-assn. Abolition of chemical weapons is less of a priority because. Moreover. bioterrorism threatens to weaken the civilian workforce and. Republicans. June 29th (Rebekah. .html. it is over. A nation's greatest defense against bioterrorism. US News and World Report – Political Writer. they are easier to control. infecting others. Like the Holocaust.com/news/blogs/ballot-2012/2012/06/29/republicans-and-democratssee-political-advantage-in-healthcare-ruling.usnews. president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition. With nuclear and biological . JKE) Following the Supreme Court ruling to uphold Democrats' signature healthcare reform law. Hence. President Barack Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney have already staked out their separate ground on the issue .html Accessed: 7/4/12 Azimi) Using infectious diseases as weapons. There is no way to guarantee the security of these doomsday weapons because very tiny amounts can be stolen or accidentally released and then grow or be grown to horrendous proportions. accessed 7-9-2012.Elections DA 125/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah **Healthcare** 2NC Module Election determines if healthcare reform stays or goes Metzler. meanwhile. 6-29-2012.

com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/06/29/if-romney-wins-he-can-repeal-health-reform-and-he-should/. is repeal the ACA.‖ Mr. ―We have to make sure that people who want to keep their current insurance will be able to do so. he can repeal health reform. ―This is now the time for the American people to make a choice. Romney said. But if he has 51. but his campaign staff was not complaining. One objection to that is that budget reconciliation is supposed to be used for laws that reduce the deficit. 6-28-2012. and now Mr. He and other Republicans would be working to repeal it.‖ Mr. and part of what they will have said. And I‘m asking the American people to join me. which is filibusterproof. they would be breaking a central campaign promise.‖ Mr. they can‘t afford without the subsidies that made the whole thing work? They‘d have to be suicidal to do that. to get rid of the law‘s spending. 6/29 (Erza. whether they meant to say it or not. WASHINGTON POST. If Romney wins. JKE) Mitt Romney declared Thursday that he would ―act to repeal Obamacare‖ if he was elected president.‖ Mr.‖ said a top campaign aide.blogs. http://www. And he should. ―No question that politically it is a huge energizer. Sure. The American people will have spoken with unusual clarity. MSNBC contributor. Romney can tie . Potentially worse than that. Parker. Radioactive elements last tens of thousands of years and will keep causing cancers virtually forever.washingtonpost. Romney‘s promise to repeal the president‘s health care plan in his standard stump speech always gets applause. Azimi) Romney won‘t have 60 votes in the Senate. Romney said in the brief statement.nytimes. http://thecaucus. explicit promise. accessed 7-9-2012. New York Times – Syndicated Blogger. Romney said the court‘s ruling underscored the choice before American voters. ―Our mission is clear: if we want to get rid of Obamacare. they will have won two straight elections atop a platform in which repealing the ACA was a central. Will the new policy also all ow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope? Romney Will Repeal Romney will repeal healthcare Klein. June 28th (Michael D. Can we imagine hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE. they should repeal the Affordable Care Act. New York Times – Reporter. speaking on the condition of anonymity to speak more freely about the campaign‘s thinking. That is our work.‖ Mr. If Republicans failed to follow through. The past doctrine allowed such use only as a last resort when our nation‘s survival was at stake. saying that he agreed with the dissenting justices in the Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. New York Times – The Caucus Blog. Ironically. nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation against threats upon allies by conventional weapons. if Mitt Romney wins the election and Republicans take control of the Senate. bio-engineered agents by the hundreds with no known cure could wreck even greater calamity on the human race than could persistent radiation.‖ Mr.com/2012/06/28/romney-says-he-will-repeal-obamacareif-elected/. Romney might have been hoping for a different court decision.S. and the Congressional Budget Office would score repeal of the Affordable Care Act as increasing the deficit by about $300 billion. Ashley. ―That is my mission. AIDS and ebola viruses are just a small example of recently emerging plagues with no known cure or vaccine. but Romney wouldn‘t be the one supporting this health-care Frankenstein. Romney will repeal healthcare – it’s the third part of his November campaign platform Shear. the Bush administration has just changed the U.Elections DA 126/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah weapons. Accessed: 7/4/12. the killing will probably never end. At that point. Romney said the health of the American economy depended on getting rid of the health care law. ―Politically it is a big positive for Romney campaign. we are going to have to replace President Obama. Romney Says He Will „Repeal Obamacare‟ if Elected. With the Capitol over his shoulder and standing in front of a podium with a sign that read ―Repeal and Replace Obamacare.. one that he said was between bigger government that could take away health insurance choices or a Republican plan to preserve them. 6/29/12. which will now be forcing people to buy insurance And to go even a bit further.. he can use the budget reconciliation process. And are Democrats really going to stand together on the floor of the United States Senate and filibuster in order to keep the individual mandate in place.

One way to do that would be to issue waivers to states allowing them to opt out. The U.Elections DA 127/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah repeal to the November election. Europe and all the other democracies. Rapidly rising U. the unique — source of progress in the treatment of disease. 6-29-2012. Instead. National Post Contributor. the debate implicates the well-being of everybody in the developed world.or at least some of it." The Romney campaign team claimed the supreme court ruling had galvanised the support of opponents of the law and that in the first three hours after the ruling $1m in donations poured into the Romney headquarters. Help us defeat the liberal agenda that makes government too big. JKE) But this Plan A had to be scrapped when the supreme court issued its ruling. There are practical problems too with repeal.S. The crucial difference is that many of those opposed who profess to be opposed to the act want to keep some of the measures. and one he has described on the campaign trail. Although Romney said he would act to repeal Obama's Affordable Care Act from day one of his presidency.S. The health issue is no longer as big a positive for Romney as it was for the Republicans in the Congressional elections in 2010. new ways of delivering care. would be to try to wreck Obama's healthcare reform . June 29th (Ewen. and they seem to have found another one in the ruling on Thursday: Repeal Obamacare/replace President Obama). Romney can be nuanced. defence budget costs about 4% of Gross Domestic Product. ―If we want to get rid of Obamacare. Speaking in Washington. accessed 7-9-2012.NATIONAL POST David Frum: How America‘s healthcare debate affects the world Accessed: 7/4/12.‖ Mr. Guardian – Washington DC Bureau Chief. Romney Can Repeal Romney means healthcare repeal – he has developed ways around congressional blocks MacAskill. so there do not seem to be new votes to be won over. In two ways at least. The profit-seeking American healthcare system is always looking for new products to sell: new drugs. The United . The team will be hoping the supreme court move might rekindle the Tea Party movement. But his campaign prefers one or two simple arguments (see: jobs and the economy). diverting its energy behind his campaign. and is killing jobs across this great country.co. new surgical procedures. the issue which both he and Obama acknowledge will determine the outcome. The result is that the United States has become the leading — often. Romney had to resort to Plan B. 6-28 (David. offering a line that his aides are already echoing. Romney Rakes in Millions in Wake of Supreme Court Health Decision. Romney said Thursday afternoon.uk/world/2012/jun/29/mitt-romney-campaign-millions.S. health costs call into question America‘s ability to pay that bill. Mr. taxpayer pays the cost of the military protection that shelters Canada. saying that he would do what the court failed to do and move to scrap it on the first day of his presidency. The Guardian. There is almost no chance of the Republicans securing in November the 60 seats in the Senate they would need to prevent the Democrats from filibustering any attempts to repeal the legislation. The U. Romney said: "Help us defeat Obamacare. which has tripped him up at times. The second implication: global peace and security. http://www. Most voters have made up their minds. that is near impossible. too intrusive. 6-30-2012. we‘re going to have to replace President Obama. Romney will fight the election on healthcare but nowhere near to the extent to which he will on the economy. Defense/Innovation Impact Repeal bad kills defense spending and medical innovation which solves disease Frum. The first implication: medical innovation. An alternative for Romney. in front a podium decked with the slogan 'repeal and replace Obamacare'.guardian. Azimi) The American healthcare debate is not a debate for Americans only.

An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis." Heg collapse leads to extinction Ferguson. that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. 2/1/12. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. Houston or Chicago. as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew.has raised living standards throughout the world.3. ." Cutting-edge technology is a big part of the United States' edge.S. so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it.foreignpolicy. healthcare." it's happening in the midst of China's rise.the integration of world markets for commodities. The wealthiest ports of the global economy -.we've mainly been focusing on "filling certain gaps in counterinsurgency capabilities. Right now. the menace of a nuclear Iran.would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. they are also talking about tomorrow‘s defence budget — the budget that protects us all from a world of dangers. What the report highlights is that "the current wave of defense cuts is also different than past defense budget reductions in their likely industrial impact. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates. "unlike the period just after the Cold War. 2/1 (Heather. and the recent increase in procurement spending has not lasted long enough to replenish the nation's key weapons arsenals with new weaponry" -.S. http://www. and continuing unrest in the Middle East. When Americans talk about today‘s health costs. But due to other cuts on the table. we could be looking at roughly $1 trillion total. say. and capital -. according to the Brookings report. the United States could still buy the world‘s most powerful military — but not a military so powerful as today‘s.from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai -.which a new Dark Age would produce -. A coming retreat into fortified cities. http://www. Technology has transformed production.along with research and development. Defense spending cuts kills hegemony Horn. Atlantic assoc. For more than two decades. That‘s what happened in Europe. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. Indian tribes. both in actual conflict and as a deterrent. Religious revivals. it would inevitably become a less open society. when Democrats and Republicans finally reached their debt ceiling deal. The reversal of globalization -. it included $400 billion worth of cuts on national security. defense industrial base is in a much different place than it was in the past.com/national/archive/2012/02/whydefense-cuts-could-hurt/252313/. "is not unusual by historical standards. "Reagan -era weaponry is wearing out. it's a post-war pullback. A World Without Power. in many countries nearer to 1%. At 3% of GDP. Meanwhile. less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work. For the world is much more populous -. Azimi) So what is left? Waning empires. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. and thus what the signatories of the Brookings piece seem particularly concerned about is the procurement budget -. the majority of the dollars in the system are tax dollars: Medicare (for the elderly). In short. Accessed: 7/5/12. or do business. Incipient anarchy.Remember: Despite the supposedly ―private‖ nature of U. where defence budgets have declined below 2% of GDP. 4 (Niall. editor. globalization -. Runner-up Switzerland pays 13%. visit. Why Defense Cuts Could Hurt. as the U. and though the size of it. Most other developed countries spend between 10% and 12%. The first of the baby boomers became eligible for Medicare in 2011. too. increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. But that's not even the main point of the report. there are no obvious surpluses of defense firms." Meanwhile.part of the so-called "investment accounts" -. Technology has upgraded destruction. 7/1/04. federal budget — and federal budgetcutters will begin eyeing defence as a source of Medicare funding. public employees and poorer children. and likely not a military that can secure all of America‘s allies as they would like to be secured.roughly 20 times more -. except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. The trouble is.would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite . Azimi) This summer. benefits for veterans. such that a natural paring process will find the fittest firms and ensure their survival. North Korea's leadership handoff.Elections DA 128/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah States operates far and away the most expensive healthcare system on earth: 17% of GDP and still rising.com/articles/2004/07/01/a_world_without_power?page=0. Medicaid (for the poor). labor. Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible. of course. Accessed: 7/5/12.so friction between the world's disparate "tribes" is bound to be more frequent.theatlantic. Hoover Institution – Senior Fellow.S. Medicare will soon surpass defence as the largest single item in the U.

Pandemics outweigh WMD attacks and terrorism Zarkaria. If the United States retreats from global hegemony -.thedailybeast. who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons. · Cutting the healthcare .com/newsweek/2005/10/30/a-threatworse-than-terror. ―Obamacare‖ repeal a disaster for small businesses. "It's a bigger threat than terrorism. even one involving weapons of mass destruction. · Keeping insurance premiums down today by requiring insurance companies to justify rate increases over 10% and top use 80% of small group premiums on actual medical coverage." says Richard Falkenrath. In Latin America. religious orders. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder.a global vacuum of power. or even a return to the good old balance of power. the ACA benefits already in place and to come for small businesses include: · Giving tax credits of up to 35% that literally hundreds of thousands of small businesses offering health insurance to employees are receiving today. On both counts. A crude nuclear device would probably kill hundreds of thousands. http://www.its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier -its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents. have been very sizable. 4/2/12. as well as citizens in general. · Establishing an insurance exchange that will create more competition between health insurance companies to drive down premiums and end small businesses paying up to 18% higher insurance premiums simply because they are small.Elections DA 129/150 With ease. the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East.S. 05 (Fareed. · Stopping the practice of small businesses paying higher premiums for all employees when they have a worker with a pre-existing condition. Accessed: 7/5/12. the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work. limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions. While the ACA has no mandate for small businesses with fewer than 50 employees (about 97% of all businesses) to offer health insurance. Small Business Impact Repeal kills small business Knapp. 10/30/05. are otherwise uninsurable due to preexisting conditions. Accessed: 7/4/12 Azimi) While the ACA is only two years old.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/219491-obamacare-repeal-a-disaster-for-small-businesses. Foreign Affairs managing editor. beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir. In fact it's bigger than anything I dealt with when I was in government. and the loss of life if it happened. · Providing low-income employees (family income of up to 133% of poverty) with Medicaid thus making private health insurance more affordable for the small-business owner to offer coverage to the other workers. the benefits to small businesses. THE HILL. A flu pandemic could easily kill millions. Meanwhile. http://thehill. without the ACA‘s Pre-Existing Condition Insurance Plan. who until recently served in the Bush administration as deputy Homeland Security adviser. aircraft carriers." One makes a threat assessment on the basis of two factors: the probability of the event. A Threat Worse Than Terror. targeting oil tankers. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. a pandemic ranks higher than a major terror attack. The few while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. vice-chair American Sustainable Business Council 4/2 (Frank Knapp Jr.000 a year on every family health insurance policy small businesses and other policyholders pay to provide for the uncompensated care of the uninsured.html. Azimi) A flu pandemic is the most dangerous threat the United States faces today. · Dramatically increasing the number of Americans with insurance thus eliminating the hidden tax of $1. While ―repeal‖ business groups like the NFIB say that they are representing business interests in their efforts. · Providing affordable health insurance today for tens of thousands of self-employed and other citizens who. terrorists Valley High School Rishi Shah could disrupt the freedom of the seas. In Africa. Be careful what you wish for. wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U.. it is clear that those interests are not those of small businesses. and cruise liners. It would be apolarity -.

‗Diversionary theory‘ suggests that. economy. DeRouen (1995). Small business is key to the economy Lee. ed. Wang (1996).C. dyadic and national levels. if the expectations of future trade decline. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. However. (Blomberg & Hess. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. and thus weak Presidential popularity. p. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‗future expectation of trade‘ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavious of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. This implied connection between integration.ksl. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. Moreover. As such. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. the country will have to invest heavily in the long. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states.S. Miller (1999). 1999). . Fiorina said. Legal and Political Perspectives.com/?nid=960&sid=20529951. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. Gelpi (1997). particularly during periods of economic downturn. KSL reporter. For the ―repeal‖ groups it is simply a matter of saying NO to these benefits that will make health insurance more affordable for small businesses compared to the healthcare system without the ACA." Economic decline causes protectionism and war Royal Department of Defense Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction 10 – (Jedediah Royal.S. 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. dyadic and national levels. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states.term success of small business. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Hess. In summary. Goldsmith and Brauer. & Weerapana. Hess. Third. Copeland‘s (1996. to the detriment of "the little guys that make our economy go. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. on a dyadic level. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson‘s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. The Valley High School Rishi Shah ―repeal‖ groups seek to take away all the above benefits for small businesses while offering no effective or comprehensive alternativ e. 5/26 (Jasen. 5/26/12. First. Seperately. 1995). although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. http://www. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources." said Fiorina. P. KSL News. Furthermore. 2010.Elections DA 130/150 chord that keeps an entrepreneur tethered to an employer‘s health insurance plan thus encouraging new small business start -ups.” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic. Department of Defense. medium and small powers. Several notable contributions follow. Small business support key for U. Econ omic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises. by big business and big labor. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. Too much power and influence today is wielded in Washington D. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. Accessed: 7/5/12. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. Azimi) SALT LAKE CITY — For America to once again become the leading economic force worldwide. and Blomberg. Crisis could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. exogenous shocks such as economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. sitting governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a ‗rally around the flag‘ effect. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. on the systemic level. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. They write. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. 2004). crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. the likelihood for conflict increases. Second. 2002. "It's critically important that we nurture the entrepreneurial foundation of our nation if we want to grow and compete (in the global economy). “Economic Integration. recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. which in turn returns the favor. Alternatively.

Missile defense isn't designed to protect Americans from terrorist attacks by means other than ballistic missiles. Accessed: 7/7/12. it is enormously easier to send a missile up into the air than to destroy a missile coming down from the sky. and ballistic missiles aren't a likely terrorist weapon. Although missile defense will not work. The costly attempt to build missile defense diverts resources and attention from prosaic policies that would reduce our vulnerability to attacks by biological. NMD bad it leads to proliferation Snyder and Snyder. or nuclear agents.Elections DA 131/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah **Missile Defense** 2NC Module Romney is committed to continue NMD Lakshmanan.html. who today have only a modest nuclear arsenal. The hundreds of billions of dollars spent on missile defense would create a false sense of security regarding the very real threat of international terrorism. to boost naval shipbuilding.S. 2/1/01. Iran would probably go nuclear. After a Chinese buildup. CSM. http://www. www. deploy Navy carriers to deter Iran‘s suspected military ambitions. . Why won't missile defense work? As a technical matter. 1 (Timothy and Philip. and Pakistan would do the same. contributor to Bloomberg. if elected. military strength and leadership are essential to deterring tyrants and keeping world peace.html. Physicists largely agree that the technology to build effective national missile defense does not exist. if elected.aps. or someone else will.csmonitor. or the website of the American Physical Society. Since it is much cheaper to build nuclear missiles than it is to build missile defense. Azimi) Missile defense has two basic problems: It can't do what it is supposed to do. nearly every test has been a failure.) Let's assume we were able to hit a missile coming down from the sky. to boost America‘s military strength by expanding the Navy and missile defenses. Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies and a physicist in San Diego. they can afford to make this assumption. A Chinese buildup. America has the strongest economy and the strongest military in the world. If the US builds national missile defense. ―In an American century.bloomberg. Any state that wished to defeat our system could build cheap countermeasures. Accessed. Every test so far has been rigged. would force the Japanese to consider building nuclear weapons. ―America must lead the world. Why missile defense is a bad idea. ―No Apology. 10/ 7/11. the Russians and Chinese must assume the contrary.‖ Romney said. No known technology could protect Americans from a missile attack. chemical. 11 (Indira. Deter Iran‘s Nuclear Ambitions.‖ that U. India would enlarge its nuclear arsenal.com/news/2011-10-07/romney-promises-to-boost-defense-spending-deter-iran. it will always be cheaper to build countermeasures than it will be to improve missile defense. which we are not. would probably become a major nuclear power. The Chinese. they know how Russia and China will react. increase intelligence cooperation with Israel. Romney Promises To Boost Defense Spending. For one thing. Peacemaking efforts in the Mideast and Korea would suffer. review military and aid spending in Afghanistan and invest heavily in missile defense and cybersecurity. combined with what the Japanese would see as irresponsible US policy.com/2001/0202/p11s2. 7/7/12. even so. and it creates the very threats to American national security it is supposed to resolve. Azimi) Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney today accused President Barack Obama of bowing to global adversaries and promised. (See the December 2000 issue of Physics Today. reprising the argument from his 2010 book. http://www. Against basic physics even the most expensive government programs are powerless. Just as it will always be easier to send a missile into the sky than to shoot it down from the ground.‖ Romney pledged in his first 100 days.org.

Obama Opposes BMD Obama has dropped missile defence Harding and Traynor 9 (Luke. might complete the transition to deliverable nuclear weapons and. Proliferation leads to extinction Taylor. use them. Continuing to neglect this menace is a recipe for disaster. fails against nuclear terrorism simply because there are no well-defined targets against which to retaliate. Proliferation of nuclear weapons among nations could spread at an awesome rate in such circumstances. Deterrence. or criminals. Countless scenarios of this type can be constructed.Elections DA 132/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah we create a world full of nuclear weapons. rivals become enemies.” http://www. These are matters to be considered before any final decision is taken. “Obama abandons missile defence shield in Europe. Proliferation increases the chance that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of irrational people. In one of the sharpest breaks yet with the policies of the Bush administration. much more serious international attention than is now evident needs to be given to the consequences of nuclear proliferation among nations. or by success of nuclear terrorists in forcing adherence to their demands. Nuclear proliferation . since "latent proliferation" is far along in at least several dozen nations. swifter and smarter" defence for the US and its allies.html. build on proven systems to offer greater defences to the threat of attack than the 2007 European missile defence programme. and will not protect us from the consequences. and is increasing rapidly as more nuclear power plants and supporting facilities are built in more countries. Missile defense is likely to contribute to new world anarchy. the small nuclear war could easily escalate into a global nuclear war. Azimi) Nuclear proliferation is greatly enhancing the likelihood of nuclear war. the cornerstone of national security in present strategies.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/book/chapters/taylor. Irrational or outright psychotic leaders of military factions or terrorist groups might decide to use a few nuclear weapons under their control to stimulate a global nuclear war. Limited nuclear wars between countries with small numbers of nuclear weapons could escalate into major nuclear wars between superpowers. Recipient of the US Atomic Energy Commission‘s 1965 Lawrence Memorial Award. a nation in an advanced stage of "latent proliferation.be it among nations or terrorists . http://wwwee.guardian. American Physical Society Fellow and Nuclear Agency Deputy Director of the Defense. rather than its intercontinental nuclear capabilities. and no one feels bound by previous agreements. such as the Middle East. either suicidal or with no concern for the fate of the world. Obama said." finding itself losing a nonnuclear war.greatly increases the chance of nuclear violence on a scale that would be intolerable. . The change of tack had been prompted by advances in missile technology and new intelligence about Iran's existing missile capabilities. where our allies strike out on their own.co. award-winning foreign correspondent with the Guardian." he said. He phoned the leaders of Poland and the Czech Republic last night to tell them he had dropped plans to site missile interceptors and a radar station in their respective countries. Former Nuclear Weapons Designer. Obama said the new approach Barack Obama would offer "stronger.uk/world/2009/sep/17/missile-defence-shield-barackobama) KA has abandoned the controversial Pentagon plan to build a missile defence system in Europe that had long soured relations with Russia. If that should happen in a region. as an act of vengeance against humanity as a whole. In summary. Accessed 7/7/12. It dramatically increases the number of scenarios for small-scale nuclear wars or nuclear terrorism. that could escalate to nuclear war between the superpowers. the Guardian's European editor. where major superpower interests are at stake. Russia had furiously opposed the project.stanford. in desperation. "This new approach will provide capabilities sooner.and medium-range missiles. terrorists. For example. Chairman of NOVA. and Ian. Obama announced the reversal officially at a news conference today. He said it would focus on the threat posed by Iran's short. A sudden rush of nuclear proliferation among nations may be triggered by small nuclear wars that are won by a country with more effective nuclear forces than its adversary. 1 (Theodore. Breakthrough: Emerging New Thinking‖. claiming it targeted Moscow's nuclear arsenal.

" We think so too. increase the Navy‘s ship-buying budget from nine to 15 vessels a year. This included ground-based missile interceptors in Poland and missile defense radar in the Czech Republic.com/article/617073/201207031851/russia-not-terribly-fond-ofromney. The president caved after the Russians threatened to bombard our proposed missile defense sites in these two countries before they became operational and threatened to deploy SS-26 Iskander missiles in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Polish border. He has promised to devote more money to missile defense—including systems designed to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles—to protect the U. stealth warplanes. 17. very troubling indeed. National Journal Group.S. Romney Supports BMD Romney is fully committed to continuing American NMD Dreazen.nationaljournal. The idea that (Obama) has more flexibility in mind for Russia is very. which has been vehemently opposed by Russia since it was proposed by the Bush administration. the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland from the east as the Nazis swept in from the west. It said the United States would not need to proceed with the interceptor system. Obama announced we were pulling the plug on the agreement our NATO allies had made with Bush. Tone Poem. “Russia Finds Obama Acceptable. but staggeringly expensive. the letter was intended to give Moscow an incentive to join the United States in a common front against Iran.html?_r=1) KA President Obama sent a secret letter to Russia‘s president last month suggesting that he would back off deploying a new missile defense system in Eastern Europe if Moscow would help stop Iran from developing long-range weapons. and maintain the current fleet of carrier battle groups. if Iran halted any efforts to build nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles.htm) KA Romney upset Moscow with a CNN interview in March in which he said that Russia was "without question our No.000 ground troops. American officials said Monday. but it has often resisted Washington‘s hard line against Iran. Russia‘s military.investors. This was made obvious by the March 26 open microphone moment at a photo-op between President Obama and outgoing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that took place after a 90-minute meeting in Seoul.Elections DA 133/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Obama cancelled NMD IBD 12 (Investors’ Business Daily. 2009. Bush had plans for a robust fulfillment of President Reagan's dream of protecting America and the free world from missile attack. Romney Inflexible “. reporter for the NY Times. Typical of the way Obama has treated loyal allies such as Britain and Israel.” http://www. Of course Obama would be "acceptable" to the Russians. 6-7-2012.com/issues/posture-notsubstance-divides-obama-romney-on-national-security-20120607. from potential attacks from Iran or North Korea. Korea. and have said as much. The former Massachusetts governor‘s spending plans don‘t stop there.S. they fight for every cause for the world's worst actors. http://www. He has promised to reverse what he calls Obama‘s ―massive‖ defense cuts and boost the Pentagon‘s budget. The officials who described the contents of the message requested anonymity because it has not been made public.. The presumptive GOP nominee says he wants to add 100.com/2009/03/03/washington/03prexy. at least in regard to national missile defense. diplomatic and commerci al ties to Tehran give it some influence there. Pushkov's criticisms of Romney sound like an echo of Soviet statements about Reagan in 1980. Bush in more than just rhetoric. We hope and believe Romney will be similar to President George W. The Republican also wants to purchase more F-35s. but. if fully implemented. National Journal Group – Senior Military Affairs and National Security Correspondent. JKE) Romney has a starkly different national-defense philosophy. Obama has stopped pursuing NMD Baker 9 (Peter. The letter to President Dmitri A. they would amount to . June 7th (Yochi J. during the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit. seaborne arsenal. “Obama Offered Deal to Russia in Secret Letter. a next-generation model of amazingly advanced.nytimes. 1 geopolitical foe. the Poles were notified with a midnight phone call on Sept. accessed 7-10-2012. the most powerful—and most expensive—weapon in the U. http://news. While they said it did not offer a direct quid pro quo. Romney hasn‘t specified how much the new programs would cost. Medvedev was hand-delivered in Moscow by top administration officials three weeks ago.

understood by both parties exactly what's required. The Patriot system had been upgraded several times by the time of the recent war against Iraq.1984685_1984864_1984901.S. Senate Minority Leader.. He has also called for protecting the Pentagon from the sequester and allowing the full budgetary ax to fall solely on domestic programs. the No." Jon Kyl is a great persuader.” Time 100. http://www.. 2 GOP leader. effort to develop and deploy effective BMD against short-range missiles has been more successful relative to the U.S. Kyl.com/time/specials/packages/article/0. On the battlefield.S. 5 Congress and the Pentagon continue to support development of highly effective TMD systems. EMM) In the Senate. Congress supports missile defense – Patriot missiles proves Hildreth 7 (Steven A.pdf) KA Nonetheless. GOP leaders aim to enforce Obama's nuclear modernization promises. What is unique is his single-minded focus on convincing them that a particular vote is in the best interests of their state and the nation. “Ballistic Missile Defense: Historical Overview. Michael Turner. 6 In terms of program and testing success. As minority whip.” http://www. "There's no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn't mind who gets the credit. Arizona's Jon Kyl has built a reputation for his encyclopedic knowledge of domestic and foreign policy. "We're going to ensure that the administration complies with the commitments that it made. R-Ohio. Kyl controls the Senate. is a principled conservative who knows what is attainable.time. especially a maritime TMD capability built around existing naval systems and infrastructure that have been deployed or in development for decades. in the House on Friday. but with mixed results." Kyl. 68. and Rep. Few people have his command of policy. AT .fas.R. effort to develop and deploy effective BMD against long-range or strategic ballistic missiles. Congress and the Department of Defense determined subsequently that the Patriot concept to defend against shorter range ballistic missile threats to U. Turner introduced his proposal. he is responsible for rallying his Republican colleagues for key legislative votes. McConnell 10 (Mitch. "Better to have it in writing.govexec. 1750. http://www.Campaign Rhetoric Romney’s serious – explicitly said he will reinvigorate NMD . said Monday at a media round table. Jon demonstrates continually that the essence of Senate power is the power to persuade. Jon Kyl. 2011. “Jon Kyl. He believes in the wisdom contained in a sign on President Reagan's desk that said. Patriot was considered more successful than in 1991.28804. AT . most observers agree that the U. R-Ariz.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RS22120. are spearheading legislation aimed at holding the Obama administration accountable for nuclear modernization pledges it made last year.html. This is why so many of his Senate colleagues look to him for policy advice. so that we don't have confusion in the future. the Senate's No.com/defense/2011/05/gop-leaders-aim-to-enforce-obamasnuclear-modernization-promises/33939/) Sen.S. while Kyl could file his version in the Senate as early as today. May 10.00 .." Bills drawn up by the two lawmakers for consideration in both chambers also seek to prohibit unilateral U.Congress Stops Kyl supports NMD Grossman 11 (Elaine M. and Trade Division. forces overseas warranted further support. his knowledge of its nuances or his grip on how they fit together. Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs. warhead reductions and preserve the nation's missile defense options.Elections DA 134/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah billions of dollars in new spending. 2 position in the Senate Republican leadership. Defense. H. and his hard work and leadership.

a new arms race with the West looks inevitable. including forward deployments of tactical nuclear missiles in Russia's Baltic . There's no Cold War. as opposed to attacking our allies and trying to control our geopolitical foes. or inspiring autobiographical references is over. And to have a president who shows resolve and locks arms with our allies. in short." he said. undermine the country's nuclear deterrent.” http://www. He sought to put the notion to rest. “Romney keeps up strong rhetoric on Russia." whatever that means. President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia was already preparing a range of countermeasures to defeat NATO missile defense." Romney said. We're not fighting each other." Russia Impact Missile Defense strains US-Russia Relations Weir 5/22 (Fred Weir is a Canadian journalist who lives in Moscow and specializes in Russian affairs) “Russia exasperated with US over missile defense” (http://news. The rosy era of "engagement.com/articles/2012/07/06/making_enemies_from_friends_0) KA In recent months the Obama administration has notably hardened its own rhetoric.in Asia. A second Obama term. Romney repeated his earlier characterization of Russia as "geopolitical foe" . A President Romney. as a threat to its survival.a remark that has raised questions among Democrats and even some Republicans about whether he remains stuck in a Cold War mindset." when Obama believed that he could establish a more benign global environment through gestures of deference to national sensibilities. would probably focus more on strengthening bonds with traditional allies -.Elections DA 135/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Traub 12 (James. “Making Enemies from Friends. might well turn Russia into the geopolitical foe which candidate Romney claims it already is. If this anti-missile system is really not directed against Russia. but did not deviate from his earlier controversial assertions. why not sign a legal document declaring that? Why not to give Russia access to real monitoring of the system?" Russian military experts say the planned missile shield would. Romney says that he would "review the implementation of the New START treaty" and return to a missile defense plan that Russia views. Putin will greet any overt attempt to block or encircle Russia as a direct provocation. and he is a man who goes around looking for provocations to respond to. Romney blasted Obama for what he called an ill-advised concession on withdrawing missile-defense sites from Eastern Europe. one of Russia's allies. Unless the US makes a legally binding pledge never to use the weapons against Russia and makes Moscow an equal partner in a joint system. deputy chair of the State Duma's international affairs committee. "We're of course not enemies.strength in our homes and our economy and our military. Of course. Romney replied: "I believe that people around the world tend to act on their own self-interests as they perceive it.yahoo.foreignpolicy." "I think it was an enormous mistake to give them that and what he got in return shows the extraordinary naiveté of a Presidency that does not understand the power of resolve and strength. Asked if he thinks Putin respects Obama. they say.com/russiaexasperated-us-over-missile-defense-162433489. At a Defense Ministry meeting Tuesday. A realistic reckoning with the limits of America's capacity to change the behavior of unfriendly states is very different from the idea of greeting hostility with hostility. I do not believe that they respond to magnetic personalities and pleasantries.com/8301-503544_162-57456060-503544/romney-keeps-up-strongrhetoric-on-russia/) KA Showing no sign of backing down on his hawkish stance on Russia. but Russia is a geopolitical foe in that regard. which he called Putin's "number one foreign-policy objective. should it happen.” http://www. In the interview with Fox Radio. Romney was asked about the heckling between his supporters and Obama supporters that has escalated at his recent campaign stops. Romney says that Russia needs to be "tempered. writer for CBS News. in its later stages." but you could argue that the administration has already begun to do just that." says Andrei Klimov. Romney believes in American strength – he will continue NMD Shelley 12 (Matthew.html) md "This is a very sensitive subject for us." Romney's remarks came as President Obama has been meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin at Mexico's G20 summit to try to seek common ground over how to deal with Syria.and less on trying to convert rivals and adversaries." On another subject. as Romney and the neocons among his team of advisors seem prepared to do. "It looks like the Americans are just stringing us along. as we have now heard ad nauseam -. He said it would be "a nice thing" if he could reach agreement with Obama strategist David Axelrod. no matter how absurdly. "The nation which consistently opposes our actions at The United Nations has been Russia. quotations from the Quran. Romney says that the time has come to "reset the reset. a fellow of the Center on International Cooperation. Mitt Romney said in a radio interview broadcast on Tuesday that the country is continuing "to pursue a course which is antithetical" to that of the United States. including Clinton's dramatic accusation that Russia was stoking Syria's killing machine by supplying and servicing attack helicopters for the Assad regime. but added: "I'm not sure it's possible.cbsnews. and believe that the best way to shape the course of American foreign policy is show strength -.

operational experience. Russia. others may seek nuclear weapons if they feel threatened by regional rivals or hostile alliances. it diverges from U. then-Russian General Staff Chief Yuri Baluyevsky downplayed the danger from Iran. Sci. Moscow opposes adding new members to the nuclear club and regards proliferation writ large as a threat.12 The spread of ballistic missiles and other nuclear-capable delivery systems in Asia. relative to nuclear stability in the present century. because the military and political discipline imposed by the Cold War superpowers no longer exists. thinking. Moscow has tended to view American policy towards nonproliferation in jaundiced fashion. Non-Proliferation. with India and China. with China and NorthKorea. and Pakistan.‖5 Accordingly. The short flight times of ballistic missiles between the cities or military forces of contiguous states means that very little time will be available for warning and attack assessment by the defender.php) md This misconceived approach is entirely our own fault. Comparative Strategy. http://www. Azerbaijan. and cultural crosscurrents contributory to the possibility of war. when then-President Vladimir Putin–in an effort to assuage American fears over Iran– proposed in June 2007 to allow the United States to jointly manage the Russian missile defense radar at Gabala. the Americans and Soviets (and then Russians) had a great deal of experience getting to know one another‘s military operational p roclivities and doctrinal idiosyncrasies.. is that the Americans and Future threats to American or Russian security from weapons of mass destruction may be presented by states or non-state actors motivated by cultural and social predispositions not easily understood by those in the West nor subject to favorable manipulation during a crisis. in part.S. "We are not closing the doors for communication. Pol. Conventionally armed missiles could easily be mistaken for a tactical nuclear objective for all of the obvious reasons." Mr. and so on. Nevertheless. with Pakistan and China. Containment of nuclear proliferation in Asia is a desirable political the present century is unlikely to see the nuclear hesitancy or risk aversion that marked the Cold War. India. Asia. those of the United States.3 Also. need to be fully armed by 2017-18 . Research Professor of National Security Affairs. or in the Middle East with reach into Asia. The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia presents a complicated mosaic of possibilities in this regard. In addition to the existing nuclear powers in their NATO allies shared with the Soviets and Russians a commonality of culture and historical experience. but also because states in Asia have new aspirations for regional or global respect. Medvedev said. Low Russia Relations leads to Russia proliferation Blank ’10 (Stephen.org/issues/2010/19/blank. which would require a global missile defense system deployed near Russian borders. insisting ―this trend is not something catastrophic. but we really need to prepare ourselves to the change of situation. deployment of missile defenses. including those that might influence the decision for or against war. and command-control systems will be thrown into a matrix of complex political. InformaWorld. China shares borders with Russia. Russian Style. Moscow has made it abundantly clear that on proliferation issues it follows its own interests–interests that are qualitatively different from. Proliferation leads to global nuclear war Cimbala ’08 (Stephen.2 But beyond that. . To be sure. we must get ready for a serious rearming of the armed forces so that we could be in a due shape and capable to respond to the missile defense in Europe.S. unlike America. Pakistan. Another consideration. among them NATO enlargement and the U. “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia”.-inspired threats. but on the basis of whether a country‘s nuclearization would seriously threaten itself and its interests. In addition. State Brandywine. North Korea. displaying a visible schadenfreude when Russian officialdom views Washington‘s insistence on nonproliferation controls largely as an effort to pressure competitors in the nuclear and arms markets.4 Thus. States with nuclear forces of variable force structure.. between the experienced nuclear forces and command systems of America and Russia. Russia evaluates proliferation issues not according to whether the regime in question is democratic. But short-range ballistic missiles or fighter-bombers suffice for India and Pakistan to launch attacks at one another with potentially ―strategic‖ effects.S.6 North Korea tested missiles and then a nuclear weapon in July and October 2006. Or alternatively. India. proliferation ranks a distant fifth in terms of threats in Russia‘s new defense doctrine. 27. social. Indeed. Distinguished Prof. is especially dangerous because plausible adversaries live close together and are already engaged in ongoing disputes about territory or other issues.Elections DA 136/150 "We Valley High School Rishi Shah enclave of Kaliningrad. behind a whole series of U. and often opposed to." Flurry of excitement ends in disappointment Russian experts say the Kremlin has been extremely disappointed by the lack of response to its concerns by the Obama administration.13 The Cold War Americans and Soviets required missiles and airborne delivery systems of intercontinental range to strike at one another‘s vitals. then it may be a matter of even more concern with regard to states with newer and more opaque forces and command systems. – Penn.securityaffairs. 2008) md If the possibility existed of a mistaken preemption during and immediately after the Cold War.

are exceptional and potentially obsolete.15 Together with this.14 This would profoundly shake up prognostications to the effect that wars of mass destruction are now passe. on account of the emergence o f the ―Revolution in Military Affairs‖ and its encouragement of information-based warfare. there has emerged the argument that large-scale war between states or coalitions of states.Elections DA 137/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah first use.16 . opposed to varieties of unconventional warfare and failed states. policymakers in the United States and NATO. retaliation. spreading nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in Asia could profoundly shift the geopolitics of mass destruction from a European center of gravity (in the twentieth century) to an Asian and/or Middle Eastern center of gravity (in the present century). For systems that increase decision pressures for rapid. In addition to the challenges posed by shorter flight times and uncertain weapons loads. potential victims of nuclear attack in Asia may also have first strike–vulnerable forces and command-control This potpourri of possibilities challenges conventional wisdom about nuclear deterrence and proliferation on the part of policymakers and academic theorists. Fighter-bombers appearing over the horizon could just as easily be carrying nuclear weapons as conventional ordnance. and possibly mistaken. as The spread of WMD and ballistic missiles in Asia could overturn these expectations for the obsolescence or marginalization of major interstate warfare.

5 In the modern era. and the U. corporate profits have hit an all-time high. economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences. they would have added 1. has been a vital aspect of statecraft from time immemorial. economy has added jobs for the past 27 months in a row.4 million to 1. basic research and development.S. state. the economy would look very different. Center for American Progress. economists are pointing to austerity as a key reason for too-slow job creation. 7-2-2012. This austerity has real—negative—economic consequences. Despite considerable warnings from economic experts that government spending is critical to creating jobs. Still. such as education. Boushey. pages 163 – 168) The management of the economy. ‗Victory (in war). auto industry is back. former Massachusetts Gov. as elephants (wild) can be captured only by elephants (tamed)… A state with depleted resources. ‗The fact remains. ‗has repeatedly gone to the side with more flourishing productive base.html. Heather. Increasingly.S. Romney‘s plan for spending cuts is deliberately vague.9 million jobs and overall unemployment would be 7. Visiting Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis. and infrastructure upgrades. public safety. His ideologically driven agenda would continue the failed supply-side policies of President George W. If state and local governments had followed the pattern of the previous two recessions.0 to 7. accessed 7-9-2012. US competitiveness suppresses conflict escalation Baru 9 (Sanjaya. becomes only a liability. as President Barack Obama has said. ‗From the strength of the treasury the army is born.‘ Kennedy argued. Kautilya‘s Arthashastra says. and local level. Volume 33. technological innovation. with manufacturers consistently adding jobs for the longest period since the mid-1990s. conservative leaders in Congress are inflicting these austerity programs on us at the federal. Economists Agree Romney‟s Plan Would Spark a New Recession. Mitt Romney. Center for American Progress – Economic Policy Research Assistant.americanprogressaction.3 percent instead of 8.org/issues/2012/07/romney_economic_plan. Issue 2 March 2009 .‖ And the biggest hurdle to swifter job creation is the embrace of austerity by Republicans in Congress who refuse to implement measures that would boost employment—a position supported by their presidential candidate. ―we are still not creating (jobs) as fast as we want.‘6 Drawing attention to the interrelationships between economic wealth. Even though austerity is not good for the U. http://www. and the ability of states to efficiently mobilize economic and technological resources for power projection and national defence. According to Yale economists Ben Polak and Peter Schott: Without this hidden austerity program. JKE) The private sector of the U. the idea that strong economic performance is the foundation of power was argued most persuasively by historian Paul Kennedy.‘4 Hence.Elections DA 138/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah **Tax Cuts** 2NC Module Election determines future of Bush tax cuts – extension collapses competitiveness and economy Ayres. Center for American Progress – Senior Economist. economy.S. this is exactly the economic policy promoted by Romney. Strategic Analysis.2 percent. but it is clear that it will require drastic cuts to programs that support middle-class families and support economic growth in order to fund tax cuts for the rich.‘ Kennedy claimed.. July 2nd (Sarah. even if acquired. ‗that all of the major shifts in the world‘s military-power . and of the treasury. Kennedy argued that nations that were able to better combine military and economic strength scored over others. …men without wealth do not attain their objectives even after hundreds of trials… Only through wealth can material gains be acquired. Bush by giving even more tax breaks to the rich—a policy that has not generated strong and sustained economic growth—while slashing investments in our middle class and America‘s future competitiveness.

and I will continue to be. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic. ‗Diversionary theory‘ suggests that. Obama won’t Extend Obama won’t extend Bush tax Cuts Stein. where victory has always gone to the side with the greatest material resources. ed. http://www. 2010. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. Seperately. Copeland‘s (1996. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson‘s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. Gelpi (1997). Third. Several notable contributions follow. & Weerapana. President Obama stressed that his administration would draw a firm line on taxes and revenues both in the deficit. (Blomberg & Hess. 1995). P. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.‘7 Economic decline causes protectionism and war Royal Department of Defense Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction 10 – (Jedediah Royal. Furthermore. “Economic Integration. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources.In a meeting with House Democrats on Thursday. Hess. which in turn returns the favor. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. if the expectations of future trade decline. recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. "I've been very clear about revenues as a part of a balanced package. 2002. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. and Blomberg.com/2011/06/02/obama-pledges-no-bush-tax-cut-extension_n_870680. Azimi) WASHINGTON -. Crisis could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. medium and small powers. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. p. However. 11 (Sam. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. on a dyadic level. particularly during periods of economic downturn.S. Moreover. 8/2/11. 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. on the systemic level. In summary. Alternatively. dyadic and national levels. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. Wang (1996). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. Huffington Post Political Reporter. 2004). Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. exogenous shocks such as economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. and thus weak Presidential popularity. DeRouen (1995). Miller (1999). First. Hess. sitting governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a ‗rally around the flag‘ effect. although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next.” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic. Goldsmit h and Brauer. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. Economic Sign aling and the Problem of Economic Crises. and further. Obama Won't Extend Bush Tax Cuts Again: Pledge To House Dems. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. Legal and Political Perspectives. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. that the rising and falling of the various empires and states in the international system has been confirmed by the outcomes of the major Great Power wars. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‗future expectation of trade‘ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavious of states. dyadic and national levels. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. Huffington Post. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. .Elections DA 139/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah balance have followed alterations in the productive balances.and debt-reduction debates and in the buildup to the 2012 elections. the likelihood for conflict increases.html. This implied connection between integration. As such. Department of Defense." said Obama. Second. 1999). 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Accessed: 7/7/12. They write.huffingtonpost.

Then Romney layers on a heaping batch of new tax cuts for the rich. That doesn‘t just leave him supporting the same upper-income tax cuts that Bush proposed.newsmax. Azimi) If you liked former President George W. "We should not extend and he will not extend the .Elections DA 140/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Underscoring his commitment. Romney layers on another set of tax cuts tilted towards high earners.000 a year. Bush‘s did. then you‘ll love Mitt Romney‘s." White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters traveling with Obama to California on board Air Force One. http://www. and Romney is promising at least $6 trillion — and likely much more — in tax cuts. So we can conservatively estimate that his plan will cost more than $2 trillion over the next 10 years. 1/10 (Erza. Under President Bush. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Romney‘s tax plan will save earners in the top 1 percent $82. it leaves him supporting those tax cuts at a time when paying for them will require much more sacrifice on the part of low-income Americans.org/issues/2012/01/romney_tax_plan. Add in the full extension of the Bush tax cuts. 6/6/12. the White House said on Wednesday. 1/10/12. including a full repeal of the estate tax—which is currently paid by only the richest 0. "President Obama has been clear about his position and it has not changed. including those that mainly benefit the extremely wealthy.americanprogressaction. Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Romney will Extend Romney will extend bush era tax cuts.14 percent of estates—and a massive corporate tax cut. MSNBC Contributor. Accessed: 7/4/12. shrugging off calls for a temporary extension to allow more time for a deal on deficits. Republican presidential candidate Romney‘s plan for federal taxation begins with a hefty portion of Bush-era tax policy: Permanently extend all the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003. Romney wants more tax cuts than Bush did. Obama won’t extend Bush tax Cuts Newsmax. Klein.html. Because larger sacrifices will be required to pay for them now than in 2001.com/US/Obama-Bush-tax-cuts/2012/06/06/id/441422. 1/12 (Michael and Seth. 1/12/12. Obama noted taxes would be a defining area of contrast with Republicans on the campaign trail. The result is a tax code that asks even less of the rich than George W. So he‘s taking the tax cuts George W. Romney will extend and add onto the bush tax cuts Linden and Hanlon. Obama Reiterates Opposition to Bush Tax Cuts http://www. but do very little for workers in the bottom half of the income distribution.html. average . The Tax Policy Center also estimates that Romney‘s plan will cost $180 billion over and above the Bush tax cuts in 2015.. Romney‘s tax plan doesn‘t come close to being fiscally responsible.com/blogs/ezraklein/post/romney-wants-more-tax-cuts-than-bush-did/2011/08/25/gIQAvjCuoP_blog. Just like President Bush. Azimi) President Barack Obama continues to oppose extending Bush-era tax cuts for wealthier Americans. 6/6 (News Organization. Center for American Progress Action Fund Director of Tax and Budget Policy and Director of Fiscal Reform. Bush‘s tax policies. http://www. 7/7/12. Bush proposed as a way to pay down a surplus and making them permanent in a time of deficits. Mitt Romney‘s Tax Plan in 5 Charts He‘s Ready to Hand Out Billions More to the 1 Percent. He insisted that he would not compromise again on his position that the tax rates for the top earners be raised to pre-Bush levels.. 7/7/12. And.washingtonpost. on top of that. Azimi) Romney intends to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.

com/web/opinion/28363599-47/tax-cuts-proposal-republicans-americans.000 a year while letting rates rise for higher earners.csp) BSB Congressional Republicans call it ―Taxmageddon‖ — the tax increase coming at the end of this year when the George W. Romney‘s tax plan has been described as ―moderate‖ or ―timid. The country is being held back by the partisan deadlock in Washington.6 percent of GDP. calling on lawmakers to temporarily extend the Bush-era tax cuts for people making less than $250. Obama is only pushing tax cuts so he can be reelected.com/news/2012-07-09/obama-to-urge-one-year-bushtax-cut-extension-for-middle-class#p1) BSB President Barack Obama urged Congress to pass a one-year extension of Bush-era tax cuts for families making less than $250. Romney‘s plan is an enormously irresponsible giveaway to the rich. ―It‘s time to let the tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans -.‖ Obama said in remarks today at the White House.2 percent. insisting that it would be a mistake to raise anyone‘s taxes under current economic conditions.‖ Republican congressional leaders rejected Obama‘s call.‖ Compared to the full -tilt insanity of the plans of some of his fellow Republican presidential candidates (9-9-9! 15 percent flat tax!). to extend all of the Bush tax cuts for at least one year. President Obama proposed a reasonable alternative Monday. He argued that tax cuts for the wealthy haven‘t helped the economy and are contributing to the deficit. But back here in the real world. The president proposed the one-year extension as an alternative to a proposal by House Republicans. It would pile on more tax cuts focused almost exclusively on the wealthy. The charts below illustrate five key points about Romney‘s plan: It would deliver twice as many tax cuts to the rich as did Bush‘s tax plan. sharpening differences with congressional Republicans and their presidential candidate. And it would raise revenue without harming the nation‘s slow-motion recovery. They vowed to press ahead with legislation to extend all the tax cuts. AT .html. Mitt Romney. Bushera tax cuts are scheduled to expire unless Congress votes to extend them or make them permanent. Obama is focusing on the issue of tax fairness three days after a government jobs report showed the nation‘s unemployment rate stuck at 8. Romney‘s tax plan would result in average revenues of only 16. Leading Republicans predictably rejected Obama‘s proposal. and ―nowhere is that stalemate more pronounced than on the issue of taxes. That would protect the vast majority of Americans — 98 percent of households and 97 percent of small businesses — from tax increases at a time when many are struggling in a stagnant economy. Strangely.000 while letting the taxes of the wealthiest go up to pre-tax-cut levels. The president‘s proposal is intended to do the same for Democrats by .com/web/opinion/28363599-47/tax-cuts-proposal-republicans-americans. it‘s true that Romney‘s plan appears more reasonable. It would not balance the federal budget. He actually doesn't care Register Guard 7/10 ("EDITORIAL: Posturing on tax cuts Parties engage in political theater as election nears" http://www.Elections DA 141/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah annual tax revenue as a share of gross domestic product was the lowest it had been under any president since Harry Truman—just 17.5 percent. There‘s nothing moderate about that. boasting a tax cut for millionaires twice the size of President Bush‘s. It would leave all corporate tax loopholes and tax breaks intact.businessweek. Obama is asking for an extension for tax cuts Register Guard 7/10 ("EDITORIAL: Posturing on tax cuts Parties engage in political theater as election nears" http://www. saying the economy is too weak to raise taxes for anyone. a measure Obama said he would veto. scheduled for a vote later this month.html.Congress Blocks Obama is pressing for an extension of Bush-era text cuts Bloomberg 7/9 ("Obama Calls for Extending Middle-Income Tax Rates" http://www.registerguard.registerguard. It would increase taxes for the middle class and working families.csp) BSB With the presidential election less than four months away and Democrats in control of the Senate.to expire. because tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans do not reduce consumer spending nearly as much as those imposed on the middle class. the House proposal is a purely political maneuver intended to enhance GOP chances of winning the White House and making gains in Congress in November.folks like myself -.

the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. accessed 7-13-12.com/newsbar/Politics/a_clear_choice_on_taxes_progressive_obama_or_regressive_romney. Obama is for letting the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire on schedule at the end of this year.Campaign Rhetoric Obama vowed never to extend tax cuts again O’Brien. Meanwhile. middle. After having initially resisted their extension. accessed 7-13-12. Meanwhile.‖ http://firstread. At the time of that extension. AT . D. But I argued at the time that he was simply playing for time while facing a hostile House.‖ Obama said in reference to Mitt Romney. setting up election year fight. and 2012 would feature a straight-up debate on whether to keep them or not. Campaign for America’s Future Campaign Manager. Digg.msnbc. which deserved better than the swift burial provided Monday by House Republicans. those who spend most of their incomes. ―Obama calls for extending most tax cuts. and unwilling to consider a reasonable compromise on the tax cuts. revenue from letting the tax cuts for wealthiest Americans expire — an estimated $40 billion annually — could be used for targeted economic stimulus and deficit reduction. Obama said he would refuse to again agree to any extension of the high-end tax cuts.Elections DA 142/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah making Republicans look like the party of the wealthy and elite.com/_news/2012/07/09/12643446-obama-calls-for-extending-most-tax-cuts-settingup-election-year-fight?lite. but consumer spending is vital to the economy right now.‖ http://digg. Obama‘s proposal is flawed in one respect — its extension of middle class tax cuts that fiscal sanity dictates must eventually be scaled back or eliminated to help bring the deficit under control. some on the left presumed Obama was giving up on ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. KGH) "My opponent will fight to keep them in place. I will fight to end them. Yes. 7-11-12 .. Given that the battle over tax cuts is largely symbolic until after the election — and perhaps even until the next Congress takes office — it‘s worth reflecting briefly on the merits of the president‘s proposal. He also wants the capital gains tax to increase from 15% to 23. Obama will pass during less hostile house Scher. Thomson Reuters Correspondent. history has shown that the longer that a temporary tax cut lasts the more Americans and their elected representatives in Washington. would keep their Bush tax cuts for at least another year. Bush. MSNBC. 7-9-12 (Bill. which were first proposed by President George W. regard it as permanent. returning the top rate to where it was in the 1990s. Now there is no question about it. Under this approach. By kicking the can further down the road.C. ―A Clear Choice on Taxes: Progressive Obama or Regressive Romney. 39. were set to expire at the end of 2010. 7-10-12 (Michael. President Obama has thrown down the gauntlet. KGH) After the 2010 tax cut deal between President Obama and congressional Republicans. All of the tax cuts. MSNBC politics editor. that would add about $140 billion a year to the deficit. the president ensures that Congress will face the same difficult decision a year from now.and upper middle-income taxpayers. drawing attention to Mitt Romney's commitment to cut taxes even more for the wealthiest Americans.msn.8% Tax cuts legislative priority Cowan.6%. Obama relented and agreed to a two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts for all income brackets – a compromise that allowed the administration to advance some of its legislative priorities through that year‘s lame-duck Congress.

simpler tax structure" in the future.com/2012/02/29/news/economy/romney_tax_deficit/index.an election-year initiative that the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will not go along with. including those for families earning above $250. according to a new estimate from the Tax Policy Center. A senior Senate Democratic aide said that the Democrats' tax bill this month likely will also include the extension of some additional middle-class tax breaks. Republicans want to renew all Bush-era tax cuts that are set to expire on December 31. KGH) WASHINGTON (Reuters) . 7/7/12. and according to a new analysis. Instead. Later this month. Previously. Some have said they favor a extending the cut beyond the $250. Now Romney appears to be accelerating that timetable.4 trillion over 10 years. Democratic senators.Congressional Democrats and President Barack Obama on Wednesday plotted their legislative priorities for the months leading up to November's elections. Romney had said he would "maintain current tax rates on personal income" as president before moving to a "fairer. . Azimi) NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -.Elections DA 143/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah (Richard. Americans in the lowest bracket would pay 8% instead of 10%.chicagotribune. with similar reductions across all tax brackets.000. Chicago Tribune. ―Obama. In addition to the changes to the marginal income tax rates. Romney also said he plans to eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax. "if any.htm. CNN staff reporter.which they say no longer defines the middle class in some expensive areas of the country . flatter. Senator Richard Durbin.4 trillion Riley.4 trillion. http://money.000 earning level .to those earning up to $1 million. the 20% reduction in rates would add $357 billion in debt that year alone. the Democratic-led Senate is expected to stage a vote on continuing tax cuts for families earning up to $250. New Romney tax cuts would cost $3. such as a child tax credit and another for college tuition. while eliminating the AMT would cost $94 billion.‖ http://articles. But Obama spokesman Jay Carney predicted "overwhelming Democratic support" for letting income tax breaks expire for those making more than $250. Like $3. told reporters that few. 2/29/12." will back the extension of all Bush-era tax cuts. By 2022. AT – Austerity Solves Romney Tax Plans cost 3.000.cnn. they will be very expensive. Both of these tax initiatives are aimed at more at energizing Democratic and Republican voters than actually enacting legislation before November's election as few think the House and Senate are capable of agreeing on much of anything. The House is expected to vote this month on full renewal. accessed 7-13-12. The twin changes will come at a cost of more than $3. Individuals closer to the middle would pay 20% instead of 25%. the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate. Democrats put tax cuts at center of 2012 agenda. 2/29 (Charles.000 .4 trillion expensive. showcasing an extension of middle-class tax cuts as well as with measures to keep government agencies functioning beyond September 30. CNN MONEY. despite Obama's opposition.com/2012-07-11/news/sns-rt-us-usa-congress-democratsbre86a1go20120711_1_tax-cuts-middle-class-tax-tax-bill. announcing a move that would reduce the current top rate paid on income from 35% to 28%.Mitt Romney made two big changes to his tax plan last week.

Subsequent research by Federal Reserve economists has found little. according to a study by Steven Bank of the UCLA law school. very modest.asp] ATP The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the U. They've had to cancel successful programs. And this happens at a time when the federal tax bite is at a post World War II low. or even end tax subsidies for oil and gas companies. and here. The mediocre economic and employment growth of the Bush years is still a bad memory for most voters.com/Columns/2010/09/17/Bush-Tax-Cuts-No-Economic-Help. Reagan domestic policy adviser/Bush Treasury official. Bush Tax Cuts Had Little Positive Impact on Economy. tracking and controlling the spread of disease.thefiscaltimes. discretionary spending cuts slash critical services”. these plans use two main traditional strategies—quarantine and isolation*1*—to contain the spread of illness. freeze staff salaries. state and local health departments have created emergency preparedness and response plans." Arias says. When Republicans say they will not raise any taxes. 53 percent blame the former and 33 percent blame the latter. it means agencies like the CDC take an even deeper hit. if any. (See here. thereby increasing the budget deficit. "Now if you have people who can find a job elsewhere. impact on growth from the 2003 tax cut. Accessed: 7/5/12. they will. Their main effect was simply to reduce the government‘s revenue. These are common health care practices to control the spread of a contagious disease by limiting people's exposure to it.Elections DA 144/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah And that's assuming the Bush tax cuts are extended. Health agencies key to preventing the spread of disease CDC 6 [Centers for Disease Control. which all Republicans claim to abhor. a majority of Americans still hold Bush and the Republicans more responsible for the economy‘s dismal condition than Obama and the Democrats. and pinch off the spigot of aid to states that are working on these issues. According to a CNN poll earlier this month. http://www. and will undoubtedly take a bigger hit next year.html] ATP The CDC budget was cut by 11 percent this year.aspx#page1. 9/10/12.redcross. Almost two years into the Obama administration. . In addition to early detection. suggesting that only the form of payouts changed.org/preparedness/cdc_english/IsoQuar. To the extent that they had any positive effect on growth. it was very. the impact probably would have been much less. something most experts think will happen -.S. http://www. here.) Moreover. Azimi) The truth is that there is virtually no evidence in support of the Bush tax cuts as an economic elixir. had the dividend tax cut been permanent.nj. "And a number of state health departments have had to let people go" as the CDC cuts block grants.at least for a majority of taxpayers.com/njv_tom_moran/2011/07/in_federal_budget_fight_discre. government agency responsible for identifying. But companies cut back on share repurchases by a similar amount. http://blog. 10 (Bruce. Their no-compromise position on taxes is weakening the nation. “Controlling the Spread of Contagious Diseases: Quarantine and Isolation”. With the help of the CDC. The CDC is but one small example. The main effect was to raise dividend payouts. the fact that the dividend tax cut was temporary was a key motivation for higher dividend payouts. Disease Impact Tax cuts kill health agency budgets. July 25 2011. as the supply-siders favored. “In federal budget fight. rapid diagnosis and treatment with antibiotics or antivirals. Bush Era tax cuts are bad hurts the economy Bartlett. Moran 11 [Tom.

Accessed 7/13/12. 2/3/12. US figures. but spending proposals do. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell has said this directly." he said. Trade Wars Impact Tax cuts lead to rising deficit Klein 12 (Ezra.com/blogs/ezraklein/post/wonkbook-yes-tax-cuts-increase-the-deficit/2012/02/03/gIQABW9fmQ_blog.4 per cent on the same period a year earlier. When Republicans proposed a payroll tax cut as stimulus in 2009. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong). “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate”. who directed the National Economic Council under George W. which include goods transshipped via Hong Kong.dartmouth. show a deficit of about $ 1 billion a week.are insisting the payroll tax cut be offset.57 billion. which was restricted to actual policies. which would be a disaster. But there's a very easy way to see that Republicans don't really mean this: They believe that tax cuts cause deficits when Democrats are behind them. There was a growing concern in Congress about the surplus and the two sides had to find ways to deal with it. According to mainland figures. The most recent scare of this variety came in 1918 when bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. May 22 2009.‖ according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). tax cuts increaes the deficit‖ http://www. Republicans occasionally flirt with the idea that tax cuts don't increase deficits. House Republicans -. Accessed 7/13/12.3 billion. Dartmouth U. the evolution of new strains could prove far more consequential. There could be a denial of MFN status to China. responded that I had ignored the trillions of dollars in deficits "from policies President Obama proposes to enact in the future (like extending most but not all tax cuts rates beyond 2012)". with imports at $ 10. Then there's the Bush tax cuts. But about the Bush tax cuts.Elections DA 145/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah Diseases lead to extinction Yu 9 [Victoria. for more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza.edu/spring2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate] ATP However. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza virus could produce a new version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately find a cure. Washington Post ―Wonkbook: Yes." he said Trade wars become shooting wars going nuclear Miller and Elwood ‗88 . Mr Bush. this lag time could potentially lead to a ―global influenza pandemic. it wasn't offset. "I would encourage China to give more access to its markets for financial firms like Hancock. up 2. ―Bush fears trade war as key talks delayed. Not about my analysis.html#comments. Rising deficit leads to trade war with china O'NEIL 98 (Mark October 20. Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original viral strain — which could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10). Bush.the same House Republicans who passed the CUTGO rules stating that spending proposals had to be paid for but tax cuts didn't -. at a lunch arranged by John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance. was asked about the reaction of Congress to this rising deficit. JGC). they're adding $620 billion for the two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts. When they project his deficits for the next five years. And they're doing so explicitly. they're assuming the extension of the Bush tax cuts. Speaker John Boehner has decreed that tax cuts don't need to be offset. Obama has passed policies adding about a trillion dollars to the deficit. not proposed policies (should I also have subtracted $4 trillion from the deficit because Obama favors a deficit deal of that size?). The mainland has increased exports to the US to make up for markets lost in Asia. When Republicans tally up Obama's deficits over the last few years. it wasn't offset. But Keith Hennessey. in the first eight months exports to the US were US$ 23. http://dujs. In the end. 1998.washingtonpost. my numbers showed. JGC). Earlier in the week. When they agreed to it in the 2010 tax deal. Since influenza can spread quickly. And Hennessey is right. But since it has become the White House's favored policy.3 per cent.‖ Lexis Nexis. "My fear would be a trade war and trade barriers in the US. I don't think it would happen. I worked with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities on a column summing up the projected budgetary impact of every single piece of legislation Obama had signed into law. . But there's a more important economic debate here. The ongoing debate over the payroll tax is a good example. . up 17. which will add trillions of dollars to the deficit if Obama extends all or most of them in 2012.

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(Vincent and James, Founder and President of the International Society for Individual Liberty, and VicePresident of the ISIL, ―FREE TRADE OR PROTECTIONISM? The Case Against Trade Restrictions‖, http://www.isil.org/resources/lit/free-trade-protectionism.html)

WHEN GOODS DON'T CROSS BORDERS, ARMIES OFTEN DO History is not lacking in examples of cold trade wars escalating into hot shooting wars: * Europe suffered from almost non-stop wars during the 17th and 18th centuries, when restrictive trade policy (mercantilism) was the rule; rival governments fought each other to expand their empires and to exploit captive markets. * British tariffs provoked the American colonists to revolution, and later the Northern-dominated US government imposed restrictions on Southern cotton exports a major factor leading to the American Civil War. * In the late 19th Century, after a half century of general free trade (which brought a half-century of peace), short-sighted politicians throughout Europe again began erecting trade barriers. Hostilities built up until they eventually exploded into World War I. * In 1930, facing only a mild recession,
US President Hoover ignored warning pleas in a petition by 1028 prominent economists and signed the notorious Smoot-Hawley Act, which raised some tariffs to 100% levels. Within a year, over 25 other governments had retaliated by passing similar laws. The result? World trade came to a grinding halt, and the entire world was

The world enjoyed its greatest economic growth during the relatively free trade period of 1945-1970, a period that also saw no major wars. Yet we again see trade barriers being raised around the world by short-sighted politicians. Will the world again end up in a shooting war as a result of these economically-deranged policies? Can we afford to allow this to happen in the nuclear age?
plunged into the "Great Depression" for the rest of the decade. The depression in turn led to World War II. THE #1 DANGER TO WORLD PEACE

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Warming
Romney dystroys warming regulation.

Pittsburg Post Gazette 12 (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Largest daily newspaper serving metropolitan Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,June 17,
2012, ―Unhealthy politics: On mercury and soot, the EPA is a strong guardian‖, http://www.post -gazette.com/stories/opinion/editorials/unhealthy-politics-on-mercuryand-soot-the-epa-is-a-strong-guardian-640722/) One of the questions for November's presidential election is how Americans feel about the environment and whether they are comfortable with the role of its guardian, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Judging by their actions, Republicans in Congress have made up their mind. Together with their party's presumptive nominee, Mitt Romney, they are convinced that the EPA is one of the prime villains of a regulatory overload crushing the economy. In Congress, they have launched dozens of bills and amendments seeking to gut the EPA's regulatory

powers.

Epa regulations key to stop greenhouse gasses and stop global warming.

Broder 9 (John M., journalist for the New York Times, ―E.P.A. Clears Way for Greenhouse Gas Rules,‖ The
New York Times, 4/17/09, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/18/science/earth/18endanger.html)
WASHINGTON — The

Environmental Protection Agency on Friday formally declared carbon dioxide and five other heat-trapping gases to be pollutants that endanger public health and welfare, setting in motion a process that will lead to the regulation of the gases for the first time in the United States. The E.P.A. said the science supporting the proposed endangerment finding was ―compelling and overwhelming.‖ The ruling initiates a 60-day comment period before any proposals for regulations governing emissions of heat-trapping gases are published.
Although the finding had been expected, supporters and critics said its issuance was a significant moment in the debate on global warming. Many Republicans in Congress and industry spokesmen warned that regulation of carbon dioxide emissions would raise energy costs and kill jobs; Democrats and environmental advocates said the decision was long overdue and would bring long-term social and economic benefits. The E.P.A. administrator, Lisa P. Jackson, said: ―This finding confirms that greenhouse gas pollution is a serious problem now and for future generations . Fortunately, it follows President Obama‘s call for a low-carbon economy and strong leadership in Congress on clean energy and climate legislation.‖ The United States has

come under fierce international criticism for trailing other industrialized nations in regulating emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants tied to global warming. With this move and steps by Congress toward a cap-and-trade system to curb heat-trapping gases, the American government can now point to progress as nations begin to write a new international treaty on climate change. According to the E.P.A. announcement, the finding was based on rigorous scientific analysis of six gases — carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride — that have been widely studied by scientists. The agency said its studies showed that concentrations of the gases were at unprecedented levels as a result of human activity and that it was highly likely that those elevated levels were responsible for an increase in average temperatures and other climate changes. Among the ill effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of the gases, the agency found, were increased drought, more heavy downpours and flooding, more frequent and intense heat waves and wildfires, a steeper rise in sea levels and harm to water resources, agriculture, wildlife and ecosystems. Environmental advocates applauded the decision, which they had sought for years. Auto companies, utilities and others tied to polluting emissions
had long dreaded this day but generally reacted with caution because the regulatory process had just begun and they hoped to address their concerns in the legislation before Congress. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers said its members were developing cars and trucks to meet the expected tougher emissions standards.

Global Warming causes Extinction Sify 2010 – Sydney newspaper citing Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute, and John Bruno,
associate professor of Marine Science at UNC (Sify News, ―Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?‖, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridledclimate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html, WEA) The findings of the comprehensive report: 'The

impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems' emerged from a synthesis of recent research on the world's oceans, carried out by two of the world's leading marine scientists. One of the authors of the report is Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at The University of Queensland and the director of its Global Change Institute (GCI). 'We may see sudden, unexpected changes that have serious ramifications for the overall well-being of humans, including the capacity of the planet to support people. This is further evidence that we are well on the way to the next great extinction event,' says Hoegh-Guldberg. 'The findings have enormous implications for mankind, particularly if the trend continues. The earth's ocean, which produces half of the oxygen we breathe and absorbs 30 per cent of human-generated carbon dioxide, is equivalent to its heart and lungs. This study shows worrying signs of ill-health. It's as if the earth has been smoking two packs of cigarettes a day!,' he added. 'We are entering a period in which the ocean services upon which humanity depends are undergoing massive change and in some cases beginning to fail', he added. The 'fundamental and comprehensive' changes to marine life identified in the report include rapidly warming and acidifying oceans, changes in water circulation and expansion of dead zones within the ocean depths. These are driving major changes in marine ecosystems: less abundant coral reefs, sea grasses and mangroves (important fish nurseries); fewer, smaller fish; a breakdown in food chains; changes in the distribution of marine life; and more frequent diseases and pests among marine organisms. Study co-author John F Bruno, associate professor in marine science at The University of North Carolina, says greenhouse gas emissions are modifying many physical and geochemical aspects of the planet's oceans, in ways

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according to a GCI release. These findings were published in Science

Valley High School Rishi Shah

'unprecedented in nearly a million years'. 'This is causing fundamental and comprehensive changes to the way marine ecosystems function,' Bruno warned, Africa War Warming leads to Africa Civil War
Stanford Report 09 [―Global warming increases risk of civil war in Africa, Stanford researchers say‖ 11 -23-09
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2009/november23/climate-civil-wars-112309.html]//gv

Climate change is likely to increase the number of civil wars raging in Africa, according to Stanford researchers. Historical records show that in warmer-than-average years, the number of conflicts rises. The researchers predict that by 2030, Africa could see a greater than 50 percent increase in civil wars, which could mean an additional 390,000 deaths just from fighting alone. Climate change could increase the likelihood of civil war in subSaharan Africa by over 50 percent within the next two decades, according to a new study led by a team of researchers at Stanford University, the
University of California-Berkeley, New York University and Harvard University. The study is to be published online this week by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The

study provides the first quantitative evidence linking climate change and the risk of

civil conflict. It concludes by urging accelerated support by African governments and foreign aid donors for new and/or expanded policies to assist with African
adaptation to climate change. "Despite recent high-level statements suggesting that climate change could worsen the risk of civil conflict, until now we had little quantitative evidence linking the two," said Marshall Burke, the study's lead author and a researcher at Stanford‘s Program o n Food Security and the Environment when the study was done.

"Unfortunately, our study finds that climate change could increase the risk of African civil war by over 50 percent in 2030 relative to 1990, with huge potential costs to human livelihoods." In the study, the researchers first
combined historical data on civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa with rainfall and temperature records across the continent. They found that between 1980 and 2002, civil wars were significantly more likely in warmer-than-average years, with a 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature in a given year raising the incidence of conflict across the continent by nearly 50 percent.

Civil War Escalates
Sage 10 Andre Le Sage is the Senior Research Fellow for Africa at the Institute for National Strategic Studies [―Africa‘s Irregular S ecurity Threats: Challenges for
U.S. Engagement‖ May 2010 https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:8Zm3pY9Wb2AJ:kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/116242/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/ac6c684b143b-496f-be0e-9d8985684cbc/en/SF255.pdf+&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjrElq_ieoHHAfJ_GltjeXlbJru2Sue7gMMwV0hbFM0Ae68c8eVx1pEqLqpX5VpIkg_WHEmB9VLwXSyQnQioRkJpKjthwz96zbNpLnHoudNsgPzia8GzRW9HGO6ooUDMbvkX1&sig=AHIEtbRIKrC4-Nrh85yARgEb1MXiMoQNhg]//gv Any survey of irregular, nonscomplex nature of armed conflict on the continent. Militias and nonstatutory forces are fielded by both insurgents and governments.

Civil wars across the continent are waged most commonly by tribally based militias. Many governments have responded by fielding their own tribal militias as proxies (as with the Janjaweed in Darfur), deploying their own militaries (which are no less tribally based or predatory), or conducting brutal counterinsurgency operations to suppress rebels and their civilian support base. In this context, the 1998 Ethiopia-Eritrea border war is one of only a few recent instances of conventional interstate conflict on the continent. Africa‘s civil wars have become known for their brutality, as well as their complex organization around overlapping ethnic, regional, and religious lines and ever-splintering factions.1 Given the ethnic basis of militia mobilization, the targeting of civilians has sadly come to ―make sense‖ in African conflicts.2 Civilians are viewed as the support base of both governments and antigovernment rebellions. Moreover, they are also a source of
enrichment by ―primitive accumulation‖ through the stripping of assets.3 Rebels target pro -government civilians as a means of claiming wealth (in the form of property, land, cattle, and so forth) that the rebels

deem to be the ill-gotten gains of a corrupt regime acting in an adversary ethnic

group‘s favor. Conversely, pro-government forces target civilians in a strategy of ―collective punishment,‖ holding entire ethnic groups accountable for atr ocities
committed by rebel leaders who purport to represent that group. Ethnic cleansing is used to seize land presently occupied by other groups, to ensure access to valuable resources contained within that land, or to prevent civilians in that group from casting ballots in elections.tate threats in Africa must confront the diverse and

Coral Reef Loss Warming damages Coral Reefs
The Daily Telegraph 11 [―Global warming good for fish, bad for coral reef‖ http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/global-warminggood-for-fish-bad-for-coral-reef/story-e6freuzi-1226214588820]//gv But after new research found tropical fish could not only adapt but thrive in water temperatures at the highest end of global warming predictions, climate change supporters have hit back, arguing that perhaps their homes may not. In research that challenged scientific thinking, scientists from the CSIRO and James Cook University found it took just two generations of tropical damsel fish, common on the Great Barrier Reef, to adapt when reared from birth in water up to 3C hotter than normal. In the past it was claimed even marginal rises in sea temperature could devastate fish life on the world's great reefs.

But Climate Change Research Centre scientist Dr Alex Sen Gupta said while the latest report was "great news for damsel fish" it did not bode well for the coral in which it and other tropical species relied on as home. "With reefs you really have a double-whammy," he said. "If temperatures get warmer you tend to get coral bleaching and the thinking with

000 species of fish. Changes in climate. human modifications to the planet in the last few centuries. In addition. for damsel fish but what's going to Coral Reefs key-economy. rare species. 800 species of hard corals and hundreds of other species.edu/chapters/s5_8879.. have greatly accelerated the rate at which extinctions occur.gov/education/kits/corals/coral07_importance. 'Our findings highlight how essential it is to save endangered species. Healthy reefs contribute to local economies through tourism. 'We still have a lot of the Earth's biodiversity to save. the annual value of reef-dependent recreational fisheries probably exceeds $100 million per year. 2001). fisheries from coral reefs is over $100 million (NMFS/NOAA. A new study. Coral reefs support more species per unit area than any other marine environment.. Resource Warming leads to resource wars Thompson 07 Andrea Thompson was Senior Writer for our sister sites LiveScience and SPACE. and a higher extinction rate overall. coral reefs contribute about one-quarter of the total fish catch.noaa. Habitat loss remains the main driver of extinctions. ecosystem collapse. restaurants. the authors of a new study warn. such as temperature and rainfall. Coral reefs buffer adjacent shorelines from wave action and prevent erosion. including about 4. fishing trips. Storehouses of immense biological wealth. in turn.html]//gv Food and water shortages fueled in the future by global warming could spur conflicts and even wars over these essential resources. and perhaps even millennia. ―It was the oscillations of agricultural production brought by long-term climate change that drove China‘s . and habitat specialists are particularly prone to extinction as a result of rapid human modifications of the planet. suggests this was the case in the past. much higher. can significantly alter the availability of crops. These reefs alone are estimated to have an asset value of $7. Globally. reefs also provide economic and environmental services to millions of people.com/1660-global-warming-fuel-war.. Ecosystem Collapse leads to extinction Sodhi Navjot S. property damage and loss of life.com [―Global Warming Could Fuel War‖ 7-9-07 http://www. climate change. History suggests the controversial idea might be on track. Extinctions can disrupt vital ecological processes such as pollination and seed dispersal.6 billion (Johns et al. Diving tours.S. as well as ports and harbors and the economies they support. Many drugs are now being developed from coral reef animals and plants as possible cures for cancer. human bacterial infections. Recent studies show that millions of people visit coral reefs in the Florida Keys every year.princeton. livestock and drinking water. This is an amazing figure for an environment that covers less than 1 percent of the Earth‘s surface (Costanza et al. and other diseases.. The authors reviewed 899 wars fought in China between 1000 and 1911 and found a correlation between the frequency of warfare and records of temperature changes.Elections DA 149/150 happen with their habitat?" Valley High School Rishi Shah climate warming is the frequency of bleaching is much. leading to cascading losses.earthtimes. 1997). ecosystem.html]//gv Coral reefs are some of the most diverse and valuable ecosystems on Earth. 1997). Biodiversity key to prevent extinction Murray 11 Louise Murray has been commissioned by leading magazines around the world [―Is the sixth mass extinction of life on earth already happening?‖ 3 4-11 http://www. several experts have warned. detailed in the August 2007 issue of the journal Human Ecology. Sodhi is a renowned tropical conservation biologist [―Causes and Consequences of Species Extinctions‖http://press. and.pdf]//gv Although extinctions are a normal part of evolution. biodiversity NOAA 08 NOAA is key to providing education on oceanic and atmospheric importance [―Importance of Coral Reefs‖http://oceanservice. providing critical food resources for tens of millions of people (Jameson et al. The commercial value of U. 1995). arthritis.org/conservation/sixth-mass-extinction-life-earth-already-happening/373/]//gv This compares to an average rate of two extinctions per million years in the fossil record. half a billion people are estimated to live within 100 kilometers of a coral reef and benefit from its production and protection. In developing countries. but it may act synergistically with other drivers such as Large-bodied species.. Resource shortages could. 2001). prompt people to turn to war to get what they need to survive. This biodiversity is considered key to finding new medicines for the 21st century.' said Barnosky. over. viruses. in the future. It's very important to devote resources and legislation towards species conservation if we don't want to be the species who causes the next mass extinction.harvesting and pollution. "It's a good news story . and other businesses based near reef systems provide millions of jobs and contribute billions of dollars all over the world. Scientists estimate that there may be another 1 to 8 million undiscovered species of organisms living in and around reefs (Reaka-Kudla.livescience. But there is cause for hope as well as despair. Coral reefs may provide goods and services worth $375 billion each year. hotels. Reefs also protect the highly productive wetlands along the coast.

We have already overshot Earth‘s long-term carrying capacity for humans – and have drawn down essential resources – to such an extent that some form of societal collapse (a substantial reduction in social complexity) is now inevitable. could potentially plunge internati onal affairs into an era of lawlessness. the world has relied on the US dollar as the basis for monetary stability. and environmental catastrophe.energybulletin. told LiveScience that all-out war is unlikely unless international institutions and global markets completely fail. producing nation. the total reached six billion in 1998. International political instability: The recent declaration by the US that it has a right to preemptive war.‖ wrote lead author David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong. of course. and bad weather). Easterling also said that the correlation cited by the auth ors of the new study did not necessarily prove that temperature changes caused increased warfare. troublesome. Concerns are now being raised that cold. France and the US). They represent not merely a likely culmination of human history. ― We are in deep trouble. By far the greatest concern for the future of warfare. fresh water from melting Greenland glaciers may halt the Gulf Stream and plunge Europe and much of North America into a new ice age. economic crises.‖ As an example of these tensions. fresh water shortages. Declining per-capita food production: For nearly the entire 20th century. as in the book and movie The Perfect Storm: Resource depletion: From the standpoint of the global economy. other scientists have argued that a looming peak in oil production could potentially generate conflict on a global scale as industrialized nations fight over dwindling petroleum supplies in an era of soaring demand. Resource depletion and population pressure are about to catch up with us.Elections DA 150/150 Valley High School Rishi Shah historical war-peace cycles. while hurting them in others (especially the tropics). probably for a variety of reasons (including loss of arable land to urbanization. world grain harvest for the past five years reveal a frightening trend: it appears that the trajectory of per-capita grain production has leveled off and may be beginning to fall. ―What that sets up is a sort of winners and losers situation. and – most obviously – between a powerful consuming nation and a weaker. This is general true among non-human animals. Increasingly. Easterling cited Israel‘s control over regional water resources and its use of that monopoly in the conflict wit h the Palestinians. and it is essential that we understand the nature of the trouble we are in. benign global climatic regime appears to be coming to an end. they also may collectively signal one of the most momentous events of geological time. Resource Wars causes extinction News Gateway 04 [―Book Excerpt: Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World by Richard Heinberg‖ 9-26-04 http://www. food production outpaced population growth. warfare could become even more destructive that the case during the past century.‖ The four principal options available to industrial societies during the next few decades are: Last One Standing – The path of competition for remaining resources. and topsoil are also dwindling. in North America and Britain. Iraq is actually the nexus of several different kinds of conflict – between consuming nations (e. If the leadership of the US continues with current policies. wild oceanic fish stocks. the next decades will be filled with war. However. Separately. predicting wars over water. as societies become more centralized and therefore more vulnerable. Easterling. But fresh water resources. explained William Easterling of Pennsylvania State University. and in the six years since that time we have added an additional 400 million humans – nearly the population of North America. who was not affiliated wi th the new study. Global climate change and other signs of environmental degradation: The relatively stable. a breathtakingly alarming prospect.‖ said Easterling. and no one is prepared. Historians will likely view the period from roughly 1800 to 2000 as the growth phase of industrial civilization. Continued population growth: While the rate of global population growth shows signs of slowing. If the world‘s sea levels rise significantly. but the change in distribution of resou rces could cause ―international tensions [to] intensify. probably the most immediate threat comes from he depletion of fossil fuels (both oil and. Taken together. Unsustainable levels of US debt and a potential dollar collapse: Since World War II. especially in the US. but that there could certainly be a relationship between the two. Similarly. phosphates (necessary for agriculture). among which competition for diminishing resources typically leads to aggressive behaviour. many coastal cities would be inundated. are incapable of dealing with the situation. and the period from 2000 to 2100 or 2200 as its contraction or collapse phase. the US has taken advantage of this situation by running up every-larger trade deficits and more foreignfinanced government debt.g. natural gas).. they constitute the most severe challenge our species has ever faced. almost certainly as the result of a human-induced enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse effect. As such. several top retired American military leaders released a report in April warning of the national security threat posed by global warming. Politicians may find it easier to persuade their constituents to fight a common enemy than to conserve and share. a co-author of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the potential impacts of climate change. The political elites. The notion that resource scarcity often leads to increased competition is certainly well founded. . between western industrial nations and ―terrorist‖ groups. The current level of American debt is unprecedented and unsustainable. refugees displaced by rising sea levels and higher rates of famine and disease. often mutually reinforcing ways . ―It became a huge political tool. using military force. and its use of that ―right‖ as a rationale for its invasion of Iraq. That is. These problems are related to one another in complex. as they are predicted to do as a result of the partial melting of polar ice. Climate change could possibly improve growing conditions in some areas (particularly higher latitudes).‖ Easterling said.net/node/2291]//gv We live in a time in which several ―storms‖ are colliding. in their ongoing and potential environmental impacts. The worst -case scenario would be the general destruction of human civilization and most of the ecological life-support system of the planet. War is always grim. we might prefer not to contemplate it – except for the fact that considerable evidence attests to its likelihood. and as weaponry becomes more sophisticated and widely dispersed. Their preferred ―solution‖ is simply to commandeer other nations‘ resources. but as resources become more scarce and valuable.