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Financial forecasts

Global Macro & Strategy, 22 July 2013

Overview Central banks

Major forecast changes Major trends Fed ECB Riksbank Norges Bank Nationalbanken USD rates EUR rates GBP JPY CHF SEK NOK Oil Metals
lower market rates or slower tapering low rates for an extended period the rate cut window is closing on hold until Q4 2014 sidelined sell-off looks excessive yields to fall in the near term stronger on Fed tapering Carney may not be a game-changer caught between Abenomics and Fed tapering floored but no one’s counting long term it is way above its average fair value model points to 7.90 political risk premium supports oil price lower price path on market surplus

Market rates

Foreign exchange USD

Commodities Tables
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Anders Svendsen

Overview: major forecast changes

We have made no major forecast changes this time around.

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Johnny Bo Jakobsen

Overview: major trends
• •
• Fixed income short term: the extreme sell-off in rates, triggered by the Fed opening the door for tapering later on this year, looks hyperbolic and a rebound lower, especially in shorter EUR rates, seems reasonable to us. Fixed income longer term: as market expectations of an eventually tighter Fed policy stance build and the Euro-area recession comes to an end, we expect market rates to move higher. FX: the USD is forecast to appreciate significantly versus the EUR in the longer run as the US economy is likely to grow more briskly than the Euro area. Oil short term: oil prices have rebounded from mid-April lows but the market has lacked fundamental catalysts as seasonal weakness and negative economic surprises from especially China continue to weigh on demand expectations. Oil longer term: the oil balance is tighter in H2 13 as demand growth resumes momentum. OPEC’s effective spare capacity may decline from Q1 levels this year, but should be able to build slightly next year.

• •

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Johnny Bo Jakobsen

Fed: lower market rates or slower tapering

The Fed sticks to its data-dependent tapering plan, though Bernanke’s message is that high market rates could slow the recovery and thus postpone tapering. In Q3 2013 the US recovery is expected to gain more traction again and in September we expect the Fed to begin tapering its purchases, with a complete halt to QE3 in Q1 2014, when we see the unemployment rate reaching 7%. With signals that the Fed is willing to accept higher inflation, we believe that the first rate hike will come in Q1 2015. Following the first rate hike, however, we see the Fed raising rates rather aggressively (around 200 bp per year) in order to contain inflation. See all research on the Fed here.
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11 % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 90
Fed's 6.5% threshold

Unemployment Actual Nordea's forecast FOMC's mid-point forecast

% 11 10 9 8 7
Oct 2014 Feb 2015

6 5 4 3

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Anders Svendsen

ECB: low rates for an extended period
• No more rate cuts in our baseline scenario.
– – We still expect recovery in the second half of the year. Forward guidance used to talk down implied rate path. Extended period means longer than markets priced in at the time. 7 out of 23 opted against a cut at the July meeting according to Der Spiegel sources.
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 ECBs deposit rate 09 10 Eonia O/N 11 12 13 Main refi-rate Euribor 3m 1.0 0.5 0.0 % % 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5

Marginal lending facility

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Significant risk of one more refi rate cut during the coming months and even a deposit rate cut.
– Maybe as little as one month of bad numbers is enough to prompt a cut.

• •

We expect the first rate hike in the beginning of 2015. See all research on the ECB here.

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Henrik Unell and Rickard Hellman

Riksbank: the rate cut window is closing
• The rate path was little changed (see table) and effectively the bank has just rolled out the same path as in April. Thus, they maintain a near-term easing bias worth around 6 bp (24%) for the next meeting on 4 September. Further out, the bank continues to envisage a tightening cycle commencing by Q4 2014, with a ladder of hikes following up to around 2.50% by the end of 2015. We stick to our forecast that there will be no more rate cuts in this cycle and that the next step from the Riksbank will be a hike. In total we forecast two rate hikes in 2014, leaving the repo rate at 1.50 % at year-end. Our risk assessment for 2013 still remains somewhat biased to a lower repo rate primarily on the back of a risk of higher unemployment than the Riksbank’s forecast.
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Katrine Godding Boye

Norges Bank: on hold until Q4 2014
3.50

We expect unchanged policy rates until December 2014 when we expect the first rate hike. Norges Bank signalled in the last MPR a 50% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in September. If the NOK remains much weaker than Norges Bank’s forecast, we would need some very weak key figures to justify a rate cut in September. So far key figures have been neutral compared to Norges Bank’s view. A rate hike will not be on the table for a long time as we expect inflation to stay well below Norges Bank’s target, growth to show a more moderate pace and unemployment slightly higher.

3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.30 2.25 2.00 2.00 1.76 1.75 1.50 1.25 Oct-10 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.75 1.94 2.15

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

3m NIBOR

Norges Bank deposit

Market implied

Central bank forecast

Norw ay Leading rate 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

Spot 1.50 1.70 1.96 2.60 3.31

3M 1.50 1.70 1.96 2.34 2.98

31Dec13 30Jun14 31Dec14 1.50 1.70 2.14 2.84 3.54 1.50 1.70 2.31 3.00 3.64 1.75 1.95 2.84 3.41 3.88

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Jan Størup Nielsen

Nationalbanken: sidelined
• • • Since January the Danish central bank has not intervened in the FX market. Over the last months the DKK has been very stable against the EUR. Assuming an unchanged ECB policy rate, we expect the central bank’s lending rate to be unchanged over the remainder of the year. In 2014 the central bank will likely resume the gradual normalisation of monetary policy, taking the lending rate to the ECB level as we head towards the end of 2014.
7.465 EUR/DKK 7.460 7.455 7.450 7.445 7.440 7.435 7.430 7.425 08 09 10 11 12 13 Central bank intervention>>
Central parity

DKK bn per month -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

<<EUR/DKK

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Denmark Leading rate 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y

Spot 0.20 0.26 0.70 1.27 2.05 2.50

3M 0.20 0.30 0.60 1.00 1.75 2.35

31Dec13 30Jun14 31Dec14 0.20 0.35 0.65 1.40 2.35 2.95 0.35 0.45 1.00 1.75 2.55 3.10 0.50 0.55 1.50 2.20 2.85 3.35

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Jan von Gerich

USD rates: sell-off looks excessive
• The extreme sell-off in rates, triggered by the Fed opening the door for tapering later on this year, was most likely reinforced by the elimination of massive long positions and MBS convexity hedging. Considering the huge upward move seen, a more notable rebound lower looks likely, especially now that the uptrend in place since early May has been broken. Volatility will remain high due to high uncertainty. We expect yields to continue to rise gradually in the medium term and also short yields to start increasing, as the economic recovery gains traction and expectations of Fed rate hikes build.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-90 Jun-95 Dec-00 Germany Jun-06 US Nov-11 % 10-year government benchmark yields % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

• •

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

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Jan von Gerich

EUR rates: yields to fall in the near term
• The move higher in EUR rates was driven to a notable extent by US events – a further correction lower looms. Especially the short end of the curve has fallen back, as the ECB introduced forward guidance and made it clear it remains tilted towards further easing measures. Political risks increased in several Euro-zone countries, acting as a reminder that the euro crisis is far from over. Interest rates remain historically very low, and it is not hard to picture rates rising from current levels in the medium term. Euro-zone debt problems and only a very slow recovery mean that rates will rise only very gradually.
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan-09 May-10 Sep-11 Feb-13 % % 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1-year EUR swap 1 year forward
Source: Nordea Markets and Bloomberg

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5

%

10-year government benchmark yields

%

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0

1.0 Jan-11

Jul-11

Feb-12 Germany

Aug-12 US

Mar-13

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

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Aurelija Augulyté and Johnny Bo Jakobsen

USD: stronger on Fed tapering
• After a volatile and voluminous start of the summer the activity has declined, and in the absence of important events FX moves will likely be limited in the coming weeks. Soft forward guidance has brought money market rates down in the UK and EMU, but the Fed remains the most aggressive central bank. The USD positioning/sentiment is still skewed long, which gives risks of further falls on negative data surprises. We expect a gradually stronger USD throughout the forecast horizon. Our 3M EUR/USD forecast is 1.2850 and the end2014 forecast is 1.1500. A relatively stronger US recovery should keep interest rate spreads USD supportive in the near to medium term.
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USD 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00
Note: The model is based on the EUR-US 2Y swap rate differential (+). R² = 0.69

EUR/USD Actual

USD 1.50
Model forecast based on Nordea's swap rate forecast

1.40 1.30

Model forecast and 95% confidence interval

1.20 1.10 1.00 14

10

11

12

13

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Aurelija Augulyté and Anders Svendsen

GBP: Carney may not be a game-changer
• EUR/GBP has breached the important 0.8600 range level and risks are now for further upside in the short term. The net short positioning is still very high and we do see risks of disappointment later in August. Risks of forward guidance as a way to ease monetary policy further (rather than more QE) are weighing on the GBP. We are not so sure that forward guidance will imply more easing given recent strong data. Looking further ahead, we expect Fed tapering and eventual QE exit to gradually weaken the GBP versus the USD. A relatively faster-growing UK economy versus the Euro area will keep interest rate spreads in support of the GBP versus the EUR but not against the USD.
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Aurelija Augulyté and Amy Zhuang

JPY: caught between Abenomics and Fed tapering
• We expect a range-bound USD/JPY and EUR/JPY in the short term with risks of more weakness. US Treasury yields have been a key driver recently, and we expect them to move lower in the coming months. The JPY could weaken versus the USD and the EUR in the longer term as monetary policy will remain more aggressive. Abenomics will only be called a success when structural reforms aimed at lifting potential growth are introduced. We maintain our JPY forecast on the longer term, that is, end-2013 = 100, Jun14 = 105 and Dec-14 = 110.

115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70

USDJPY

10y IRS diff

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

65 2008

2009

2010 USDJPY

2012

2013

0 2014

USD vs JPY 10Y IRS

Source:Nordea, Bloomberg

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Fredrik Paulson & Anders Svendsen

CHF: floored but no one’s counting
• EUR/CHF continues to trade more or less sideways. A sustainable improvement in risk sentiment is required to take EUR/CHF much higher. We keep our 3-month forecast of 1.25, while being aware of the short-term risks for further choppiness considering current volatility in markets. We expect the SNB to keep rates unchanged and the floor at 1.20. We expect EUR/CHF to remain in the 1.201.30 range this year and the next. Risk perception is likely to be the main driver until central banks start normalising liquidity conditions and the big economies recover. A break above 1.30 would make us change our longer-term view on the economy, the SNB and the CHF.
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1,62 1,52 1,42 1,32 1,22 1,12 1,02 0,92 feb 09 feb 10 EURCHF, lhs 5Y CDS Italy, Spain, Portugal, Iredand, reversed, rhs
Source:Nordea, Bloomberg

• •

EURCHF

CDS spread

-50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650

feb 11

feb 12

jan 13

Henrik Unell and Rickard Hellman

SEK: long term it is way above its average
• Our view on the economy is that Swedish growth will gradually improve in the second half of 2013. Our leading GDP indicator points to a scenario where GDP growth should be 2.0-2.5% y/y in Q4. Nordea’s forecast, due to the Riksbank focus on household/financial stability, is an unchanged repo rate for the rest of 2013 and an increase in the first half of 2014. No safe haven traces in SEK movements lately. Works better as a global risk on/risk off barometer. Having a neutral view on stock market volatility we still maintain our argument for a stronger SEK ahead. Present rate spreads indicate a good entry point to buy the SEK. The long-term EUR/SEK average is way below today’s spot rate.
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SEK övervärderad ->

Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen

NOK: fair value model points to 7.90
• • • • • Higher US rates destroy the carry trade including the NOK. Dovish Norges Bank the main trigger for the EUR/NOK rally. We don’t see much more upside potential for long end US rates short term. We don’t see Norges Bank cutting rates.
– Especially not with this weak NOK. We expect implied volatility to come down once liquidity improves which will bring down the estimate as well.
10.0 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 ECB deposit = 0 EURNOK Oil trend, Imp Vol, Sov CDS & IR dif

+/- 1 stdev

Our fair value model points to 7.90.

The long-term forecast is based on our forecast for interest rate differentials, oil prices and historical average implied volatility.

8.20 8.15 8.10 8.05 8.00 7.95 7.90 7.85 7.80 7.75 7.70 7.65 7.60 7.55 7.50 7.45 7.40 7.35 7.30 7.25 7.20 7.15 7.10 7.05 May12
Cut/hike

Jul12
Meeting

Sep12

Nov12

Jan13
EURNOK

Mar13

May13

Neutral EURNOK

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Thina Margrethe Saltvedt

Oil: political risk premium supports oil price
• • Brent crude oil is expected to average USD 108/barrel in Q3. Oil demand is expected to seasonally rise in Q3 as demand for petrol increases during the US driving season and direct crude burn to fuel air-conditioners in Saudi Arabia. Mounting political instability in Egypt, Libya and Iraq puts pressure on oil supply. The political risk premium is expected to remain at today’s level around USD 5/barrel. US crude stocks have fallen sharply as crude demand from refineries has picked up with improving transportation bottlenecks. Upside risk to oil prices late August in peak hurricane season.
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m barrels

US Crude oil inventories, Total

410 390 370 350 330 310 290 270 250

1

4

7

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49

52

5y range

2013

2012

2011

5 year avg

Bjørnar Tonhaugen

Metals: lower price path on market surplus
• •
We lower our forecast across the base metals complex partly on mark-to-market and partly on a weaker outlook for China. We see upside from current levels for prices of the four base metals covered compared to cash costs and long-term incentive prices, but upside is limited. Chinese demand has remained fairly strong, but not enough to prevent global inventory accumulation across most metals. Risks to supply capacity expansions are on the downside amid weak prices, but markets remain wellsupplied over the forecast horizon. The price path has been lowered as supply has caught up with sluggish global demand. Market balances will likely be tighter in 2014, except for copper.
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4.5 ('000) USD/tonne 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Nickel, rhs Zinc

('000) USD/tonne 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Forecast 12 13 14 10

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Tables

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Financial forecasts

Policy rates
Country US Japan Euro area Denmark Sweden Norway UK Switzerland Poland Czech Rep. Hungary Romania Turkey Russia Kazakhstan South Africa China India Brazil Mexico Spot 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.20 1.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 2.50 0.05 4.25 5.00 4.50 8.25 5.50 5.00 6.00 7.25 8.50 4.00 3M 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.20 1.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.05 4.25 5.25 4.50 8.25 5.50 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.25 4.00 chg 31-Dec-13 chg 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.20 1.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.05 4.25 5.25 4.50 8.00 5.50 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.50 4.00 30-Jun-14 chg 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.35 1.25 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.05 4.50 5.50 4.75 8.00 6.25 5.50 6.00 7.00 8.75 4.25 31-Dec-14 chg 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.75 0.50 0.00 3.50 1.00 5.25 5.75 5.50 8.00 7.25 6.00 6.25 7.25 9.50 5.00 -

2.50 - 0.25

2.50 - 0.25

2.50 - 0.25

Note: “chg” is the change in percentage points from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts.

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Financial forecasts

Fixed income forecasts
Govies
US Leading rate 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5Y-2Y 10Y-2Y 30Y-10Y Spot 0.25 0.26 0.30 1.28 2.47 3.54 0.98 2.17 1.08 Spot 0.47 1.45 2.66 3.51 0.99 2.20 0.85 3M 0.25 0.30 0.30 1.00 2.10 3.30 0.70 1.80 1.20 3M 0.50 1.20 2.30 3.20 0.70 1.80 0.90 chg chg 31-Dec-13 chg 0.25 0.35 0.65 1.45 2.65 3.65 0.80 2.00 1.00 30-Jun-14 chg 0.25 0.35 1.20 2.00 2.80 3.75 0.80 1.60 0.95 31-Dec-14 chg 0.25 0.60 2.10 2.75 3.25 4.00 0.65 1.15 0.75 -

Govies
Germany Leading rate 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5Y-2Y 10Y-2Y 30Y-10Y Spot 0.50 0.22 0.08 0.50 1.51 2.37 0.42 1.44 0.85 Spot 0.50 1.05 1.85 2.43 0.55 1.35 0.58 3M 0.50 0.20 0.00 0.35 1.30 2.25 0.35 1.30 0.95 3M 0.35 0.75 1.55 2.25 0.40 1.20 0.70 chg chg 31-Dec-13 chg 0.50 0.20 0.15 0.90 1.90 2.65 0.75 1.75 0.75 30-Jun-14 chg 0.50 0.30 0.50 1.25 2.10 2.80 0.75 1.60 0.70 31-Dec-14 chg 0.50 0.40 1.10 1.80 2.40 3.00 0.70 1.30 0.60 -

Swap rate
US 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5Y-2Y 10Y-2Y 30Y-10Y 31-Dec-13 chg 0.90 1.70 2.75 3.50 0.80 1.85 0.75 30-Jun-14 chg 1.50 2.30 2.95 3.70 0.80 1.45 0.75 31-Dec-14 chg 2.50 3.15 3.50 4.10 0.65 1.00 0.60 -

Swap rate
EUR 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5Y-2Y 10Y-2Y 30Y-10Y 31-Dec-13 chg 0.45 1.20 2.15 2.90 0.75 1.70 0.75 30-Jun-14 chg 0.80 1.55 2.35 3.05 0.75 1.55 0.70 31-Dec-14 chg 1.30 2.00 2.65 3.30 0.70 1.35 0.65 -

Note: “chg” is the change in percentage points from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts.

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Financial forecasts

FX forecasts
Currencies EUR/USD EUR/JPY EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/SEK EUR/NOK EUR/PLN EUR/RON EUR/CZK EUR/TRY EUR/RUB USD/JPY USD/GBP USD/TRY USD/CHF USD/DKK USD/SEK USD/NOK USD/PLN USD/RUB USD/CNY USD/INR USD/BRL USD/KZT USD/MXN USD/ZAR Spot 1.315 131.64 0.861 1.237 8.595 7.843 4.233 4.420 25.92 2.519 42.50 100.14 1.527 1.916 0.941 5.673 6.538 5.966 3.220 32.33 6.137 59.44 2.246 153.1 12.50 9.821 3M 1.30 125.6 0.83 1.25 8.45 7.80 4.15 4.40 25.80 2.37 42.09 97.00 1.56 1.83 0.97 5.76 6.53 6.02 3.20 32.50 6.15 60.00 2.10 152.00 12.50 9.60 chg 3.2 3.2 0.8 9.1 31-Dec-13 chg 1.25 125.0 0.82 1.25 8.45 7.80 4.05 4.25 25.60 2.28 40.00 100.00 1.52 1.82 1.00 5.96 6.76 6.24 3.24 32.00 6.10 58.00 2.00 153.00 12.30 9.20 6.7 6.7 0.8 6.4 30-Jun-14 chg 1.20 126.0 0.80 1.250 8.200 7.750 4.000 4.200 25.20 2.180 38.04 105.00 1.500 1.817 1.042 6.213 6.833 6.458 3.333 31.70 6.000 56.00 1.950 155.0 12.200 8.500 3.9 3.9 1.7 4.7 31-Dec-14 chg 1.15 126.5 0.78 1.30 8.20 7.70 3.95 4.10 24.30 2.00 36.23 110.00 1.47 1.74 1.13 6.48 7.13 6.70 3.43 31.50 5.90 52.00 1.90 157.00 12.50 7.80 5.0 5.0 3.5 4.0 -

Note: “chg” is the percentage change from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts.

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Financial forecasts

Commodities
Metals Aluminum Copper Gold Nickel Silver Zinc Spot 1,773 6,920 1,318 13,980 20.0 1,834 2013 1,973 7,343 1,500 15,149 26.0 1,894 chg 2014 2,275 7,500 1,400 16,000 24.0 2,200 chg -

Oil Spot 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 12/31/2013 3/31/2014 6/30/2014 9/30/2014 12/31/2014

New 110 104 108 110 111 110 112 112

chg -

Note: “chg” is the percentage change from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts. Commodity forecasts are average prices over periods.

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Global Research
Global Strategy Global Research
Steen V. Grøndahl Senior Director & Head of Global Research  steen.grondahl@nordea.com  +45 33331453 / +45 6122 2388 Dmitry Savchenko, CFA, Chief Economist* Focus: Russia  dmitry.savchenko@nordea.ru  +7 495 7773477, ext. 4194 Tõnu Palm, Chief Economist* Focus: Estonia  tonu.palm@nordea.com  +372 6283345 Andris Strazds, Chief Economist* Focus: Latvia  andris.strazds@nordea.com  +371 6700 5252 Annika Lindblad, Analyst* Focus: Czech Republic, Hungary & Turkey  annika.lindblad@nordea.com  +358 9 165 59940 / +358 50 34 88545 Zygimantas Mauricas, Chief Economist* Focus: Lithuania  zygimantas.mauricas@nordea.com  +370 5265 7198 Heidi Østergaard, Assistant Analyst Focus: Data mining, support  ostergaard.heidi@nordea.com  +45 3333 6102 Henrik L. Rasmussen, Assistant Analyst Focus: Data mining, support  henrik.l.rasmussen@nordea.com  +45 3333 4007 Jan von Gerich, Chief Analyst Focus: Fixed Income Strategy (Euro)  jan.vongerich@nordea.com  +358 9 165 59937 / +358 500 405 182 Christian Börjesson, Chief Analyst Focus: Fixed Income Strategy (US)  christian.borjesson@nordea.com  +46 8614 7884 / +46 7611 80622 Fredrik Floric, Chief Analyst Focus: Fixed Income Strategy (Scandi)  fredrik.floric@nordea.com  +46 8614 8215 / +46 70 235 1078 Aurelija Augulyte, CFA, Senior Analyst Focus: FX Strategy  aurelija.augulyte@nordea.com  +45 3333 6437 / +45 6122 3247 Fredrik L. Paulsson, Analyst Focus: FX Strategy  fredrik.l.paulsson@nordea.com  +45 3333 6437 / +45 6122 3247 Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Senior Analyst Focus: Commodities (Energy and metals)  bjornar.tonhaugen@nordea.com  +47 2248 7959 / +47 4666 2509 Thina M. Saltvedt, Chief Analyst* Focus: Oil and global commodities  thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com  +47 2248 7993 Emil Kuch Jørgensen, Assistant Analyst Focus: Data mining, support  emil.kuch.jorgensen@nordea.com  +45 3333 1502
* Reports to local manager

Global Macro
Helge Pedersen, Global Chief Economist* Focus: Global & Denmark  helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 3333 3126 / +45 2269 7912 Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Chief Analyst Focus: North America  johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com  +45 3333 6178 / +45 6122 4550 Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst Focus: Europe  anders.svendsen@nordea.com  +45 3333 3951 / +45 6122 4549 Dr. Holger Sandte, Chief Analyst Focus: Europe  holger.sandte@nordea.com  +45 3333 1191 / +45 6122 3076 Amy Zhuang, CFA, Senior Analyst Focus: Asia  amy.yuan.zhuang@nordea.com  +45 3333 5607 / +45 6122 2287 Piotr Bujak, Chief Economist* Focus: Poland  piotr.bujak@nordea.com +48 2252 13651 / +48 693 333 127

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