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2013 TAAF Games of Texas – Predictions with 95% Confidence Intervals

Gender Event

Age
Group

1st
Prediction

800

Girls
1600

3200

800

Boys
1600

3200

2nd
Actual

Prediction

3rd
Actual

Prediction

4th
Actual

Prediction

5th
Actual

Prediction

6th
Actual

Prediction

8&U

2:55 [2:50, 2:59]

2:58 [2:51, 3:05]

2:59 [2:52, 3:07]

3:02 [2:54, 3:10]

3:04 [2:55, 3:13]

3:06 [2:57, 3:14]

10&U

2:41 [2:35, 2:47]

2:44 [2:39, 2:49]

2:46 [2:43, 2:49]

2:47 [2:45, 2:49]

2:50 [2:47, 2:54]

2:52 [2:47, 2:57]

12&U

2:27 [2:22, 2:31]

2:31 [2:27, 2:37]

2:32 [2:30, 2:34]

2:34 [2:31, 2:38]

2:36 [2:33, 2:39]

2:36 [2:33, 2:40]

14&U

2:21 [2:16, 2:26]

2:23 [2:17, 2:28]

2:25 [2:22, 2:28]

2:28 [2:26, 2:31]

2:30 [2:28, 2:33]

2:31 [2:28, 2:34]

16&U

2:19 [2:13, 2:25]

2:23 [2:17, 2:29]

2:24 [2:20, 2:29]

2:27 [2:23, 2:31]

2:29 [2:24, 2:34]

2:30 [2:24, 2:37]

18&U

2:21 [2:16, 2:26]

2:24 [2:18, 2:31]

2:26 [2:21, 2:32]

2:29 [2:23, 2:36]

2:32 [2:26, 2:40]

2:35 [2:29, 2:42]

10&U

5:53 [5:42, 6:04]

6:04 [5:56, 6:13]

6:11 [6:05, 6:16]

6:13 [6:09, 6:17]

6:17 [6:11, 6:22]

6:23 [6:18, 6:29]

12&U

5:34 [5:22, 5:46]

5:38 [5:25, 5:51]

5:45 [5:38, 5:53]

5:48 [5:44, 5:52]

5:52 [5:43, 6:03]

5:57 [5:50, 6:03]

14&U

5:31 [5:19, 5:42]

5:35 [5:24, 5:46]

5:38 [5:27, 5:49]

5:42 [5:36, 5:48]

5:44 [5:37, 5:51]

5:45 [5:38, 5:53]

16&U

5:31 [5:26, 5:37]

5:36 [5:31, 5:40]

5:38 [5:36, 5:41]

5:43 [5:36, 5:50]

5:46 [5:39, 5:54]

5:49 [5:41, 5:57]

18&U

5:31 [5:20, 5:43]

5:43 [5:31, 5:55]

5:46 [5:33, 5:59]

5:53 [5:36, 6:10]

5:58 [5:44, 6:13]

6:03 [5:49, 6:18]

14&U 12:19 [11:54, 12:44]

12:25 [12:04, 12:46]

12:38 [12:16, 13:00]

12:54 [12:40, 13:09]

13:06 [12:59, 13:13]

13:10 [13:01, 13:20]

16&U 12:12 [11:48, 12:37]

12:30 [12:22, 12:38]

12:42 [12:38, 12:46]

12:56 [12:43, 13:10]

13:13 [12:56, 13:29]

13:24 [13:08, 13:40]

18&U 12:14 [11:32, 12:59]

12:41 [11:49, 13:37]

13:00 [12:00, 14:04]

13:13 [12:18, 14:11]

13:42 [12:59, 14:28]

14:05 [13:14, 14:59]

8&U

2:45 [2:40, 2:50]

2:49 [2:43, 2:55]

2:50 [2:45, 2:55]

2:53 [2:50, 2:56]

2:55 [2:50, 3:00]

2:57 [2:52, 3:01]

10&U

2:29 [2:25, 2:34]

2:32 [2:25, 2:40]

2:36 [2:29, 2:42]

2:38 [2:33, 2:44]

2:41 [2:34, 2:48]

2:43 [2:38, 2:49]

12&U

2:22 [2:19, 2:26]

2:25 [2:24, 2:27]

2:29 [2:24, 2:34]

2:30 [2:25, 2:36]

2:31 [2:26, 2:37]

2:32 [2:27, 2:37]

14&U

2:05 [2:01, 2:08]

2:06 [2:04, 2:08]

2:08 [2:06, 2:11]

2:10 [2:07, 2:12]

2:11 [2:07, 2:15]

2:13 [2:10, 2:16]

16&U

1:59 [1:57, 2:01]

2:00 [1:57, 2:03]

2:02 [1:59, 2:04]

2:03 [2:01, 2:06]

2:03 [2:01, 2:06]

2:04 [2:02, 2:07]

18&U

1:56 [1:53, 1:59]

1:58 [1:55, 2:00]

1:59 [1:57, 2:01]

1:59 [1:57, 2:02]

2:00 [1:58, 2:03]

2:02 [1:59, 2:04]

10&U

5:32 [5:21, 5:42]

5:35 [5:23, 5:47]

5:45 [5:40, 5:50]

5:51 [5:41, 6:01]

5:56 [5:45, 6:07]

6:01 [5:48, 6:15]

12&U

5:21 [5:09, 5:32]

5:27 [5:19, 5:34]

5:30 [5:21, 5:40]

5:35 [5:27, 5:43]

5:38 [5:31, 5:46]

5:40 [5:35, 5:46]

14&U

4:49 [4:42, 4:56]

4:56 [4:49, 5:04]

5:00 [4:55, 5:05]

5:03 [4:56, 5:09]

5:04 [4:58, 5:09]

5:06 [4:59, 5:13]

16&U

4:36 [4:30, 4:42]

4:39 [4:32, 4:46]

4:43 [4:38, 4:48]

4:46 [4:43, 4:48]

4:50 [4:45, 4:54]

4:51 [4:46, 4:57]

18&U

4:27 [4:20, 4:34]

4:29 [4:25, 4:33]

4:32 [4:27, 4:38]

4:37 [4:30, 4:43]

4:41 [4:36, 4:47]

4:43 [4:37, 4:49]

14&U 10:42 [10:13, 11:11]
16&U 10:09 [9:59, 10:20]

11:03 [10:34, 11:33]

11:14 [10:47, 11:43]

11:21 [10:54, 11:50]

11:33 [11:06, 12:01]

11:37 [11:14, 12:01]

10:26 [10:13, 10:39]

10:39 [10:28, 10:51]

10:46 [10:36, 10:58]

10:53 [10:40, 11:06]

10:57 [10:44, 11:11]

10:10 [9:47, 10:34]

10:19 [9:56, 10:43]

10:24 [10:04, 10:44]

10:30 [10:10, 10:50]

10:39 [10:20, 10:57]

10:44 [10:27, 11:02]

18&U
©2013 Brandon Cooper
Lake Cities Track Club

Actual

Note. Format is "Prediction [Lower Limit, Upper Limit]". Predictions are based on geometric means from results (rounded down to the nearest second) at the 2008–2012 TAAF Games of Texas. Confidence intervals were made with a Student's t-distribution model
using logarithmic data.