Professional Documents
Culture Documents
24 July 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Support Services
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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24 July 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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24 July 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
24 July 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
435.30
300.80
435.30
Neutral
Buy
Target
605
Beta
0.68
CHEMRING GROUP
306.10
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
359
0.66
COBHAM
278.00
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
299
0.83
MEGGITT
547.00
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
526
1.30
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1180.00
799.39
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1164
1.01
SMITHS GROUP
1377.00
1011.00
1396.00
Neutral
Sell
1158
0.77
1835.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Sell
1709
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
339.80
200.70
341.90
Neutral
Neutral
332
1.96
INCHCAPE
555.00
353.30
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
587
1.42
LOOKERS
115.00
64.50
115.00
Neutral
Sell
102
1.23
27.25
13.50
28.25
Neutral
Buy
40
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
321.75
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-822
1.94
731.40
510.60
769.90
Neutral
Buy
888
1.16
68.11
28.76
70.03
Sell
Sell
1.86
335.80
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-115
1.37
STANDARD CHARTERED
1515.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3483
1.65
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
569.00
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
500
0.58
DIAGEO
2020.00
1656.00
2085.00
Neutral
Neutral
2221
0.53
SABMILLER
3256.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4377
0.93
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
372.30
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
457
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
335.20
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
564
1.21
CARCLO
363.25
342.75
503.00
Neutral
Sell
147
0.76
2449.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3186
1.06
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
238.40
192.90
275.00
Neutral
Buy
312
1.04
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2750.00
2080.27
2836.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4322
1.44
VICTREX
1572.00
1212.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1342
1.19
SYNTHOMER
201.00
137.00
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
400
1.11
ZOTEFOAMS
207.50
166.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
302
0.99
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
108.00
61.50
108.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
273
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
240.50
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1131
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
341.90
132.20
352.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
598
1.61
1.00
0.52
BELLWAY
1431.00
801.50
1455.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2812
2250.00
1343.00
2325.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3434
0.57
BOOT (HENRY)
188.50
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
359
0.76
1.11
820.00
451.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1412
CARILLION
291.30
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1516
1.10
CLARKE (T)
53.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
381
0.80
277.25
206.13
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1117
0.51
CRH
COSTAIN GROUP
1350.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
910
1.05
GALLIFORD TRY
1000.00
606.00
1019.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2903
0.95
KELLER
1155.00
411.00
1161.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2352
1.26
KIER GROUP
1423.00
1106.00
1486.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5247
0.94
65.25
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
221
1.05
1.32
148.75
76.00
148.75
Neutral
Buy
200
654.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4465
0.69
16.50
10.63
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
60
1.07
NORCROS
1256.00
565.78
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1967
1.04
REDROW
PERSIMMON
250.80
125.00
253.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
447
0.89
SIG
182.10
88.85
183.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
519
1.72
45.50
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4169
0.88
107.00
42.72
108.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
223
1.62
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1675.00
970.50
1696.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4338
1.92
WOLSELEY
3235.00
2240.40
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5907
1.37
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1185.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1026
0.69
640.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
860
1.16
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
131.75
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
268
1.27
INVENSYS
499.10
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
268
1.36
LAIRD
189.50
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
432
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1347.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1263
1.11
RENISHAW
1567.00
1270.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2015
1.30
SPECTRIS
2085.00
1479.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2745
1.52
82.50
82.50
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-476
0.75
TT ELECTRONICS
161.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
420
1.61
XAAR
846.50
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
410
1.09
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
92.00
54.25
92.00
Neutral
Buy
131
1.18
BODYCOTE
584.00
322.60
584.00
Neutral
Neutral
602
1.58
CASTINGS
400.00
291.00
412.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
637
0.94
VESUVIUS
412.00
263.19
413.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1047
2.23
FENNER
342.00
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
523
1.46
HALMA
527.50
395.50
538.50
Neutral
Sell
394
0.77
426.25
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
505
1.36
1378.00
776.00
1400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4977
1.40
295.10
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
584
1.87
2703.00
2132.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1106
1.03
264.80
182.00
281.80
Neutral
Sell
233
1.66
0.75
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
57.00
35.40
80.16
Neutral
Sell
42
SPIRAX-SARCO
2827.00
1929.53
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
2023
0.84
VITEC GROUP
569.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
444
1.41
WEIR GROUP
2112.00
1532.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2068
1.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
438.00
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
794
0.43
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
285.90
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
394
0.36
SAINSBURY (J)
396.70
312.50
398.50
Neutral
Buy
479
0.54
TESCO
367.15
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
198
0.66
85.50
22.50
100.50
Neutral
Sell
54
0.82
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1862.00
1243.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1632
0.59
CRANSWICK
1170.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1784
0.35
DAIRY CREST
494.50
327.30
503.50
Neutral
Sell
359
0.89
DEVRO
300.10
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
525
0.34
90.25
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
1.22
823.50
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1382
0.68
2714.00
2140.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2220
0.52
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
25.50
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
38
0.67
504.50
261.70
509.00
Sell
Sell
454
0.47
1480.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
1206
1.27
677.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
353
0.89
46.14
14.97
46.14
Neutral
Neutral
46
1.46
173.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
60
1.05
30.00
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
112
1.00
HALFORDS GROUP
364.60
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Buy
511
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
903.00
651.00
925.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1762
0.51
DARTY
Target
Beta
78.00
38.00
79.00
Neutral
Buy
108
1.19
KINGFISHER
384.80
254.10
392.90
Neutral
Buy
450
0.87
481.70
317.10
485.00
Neutral
Buy
639
0.61
60.75
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
75
0.98
466.50
194.75
492.75
Neutral
Sell
153
0.38
NEXT
4843.00
3185.00
4872.00
Sell
Neutral
5082
0.59
TED BAKER
1899.00
880.00
1900.00
Sell
Sell
958
0.54
84.50
42.00
89.00
Neutral
Sell
76
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
112
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
793.50
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
566
0.38
OPTOS
152.37
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Buy
168
1.23
785.50
638.00
795.00
Neutral
Sell
666
0.44
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
790.00
571.50
791.50
Neutral
Neutral
773
0.38
HEADLAM GROUP
355.75
265.00
378.75
Neutral
Sell
311
0.89
80.25
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
106
0.71
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
898.00
484.80
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
285
0.70
CSR
598.50
296.20
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1530
1.12
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
60.50
28.38
83.25
Neutral
Sell
50
0.94
250.70
250.70
624.00
Neutral
Buy
312
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
123.50
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
148.00
140.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-189
0.96
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1380.00
1019.00
1391.00
Neutral
Sell
-448
0.50
AMLIN
398.80
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1559
0.39
BEAZLEY
225.70
156.00
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
970
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
494.50
424.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
465
0.22
HISCOX
604.50
428.39
608.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1940
0.41
865.00
710.50
917.00
Neutral
Buy
1253
0.33
127.00
107.30
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
737
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
485.50
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3484
0.41
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2488.00
2083.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3560
0.92
ENTERPRISE INNS
127.50
55.50
127.50
Neutral
Sell
114
1.62
TUI TRAVEL
364.20
171.20
376.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
729
0.96
916.00
700.50
925.00
Neutral
Sell
615
0.25
GREENE KING
873.00
556.50
873.00
Sell
Sell
633
0.85
LADBROKES
202.30
153.80
243.10
Neutral
Buy
265
0.87
1931.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1686
1.12
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
552.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
589
1.37
415.00
253.20
415.00
Sell
Sell
279
0.96
128.30
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
62
1.23
13.12
5.61
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
76
1.18
162.00
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
578
0.97
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
555.00
315.50
557.50
Neutral
Sell
394
WETHERSPOON (JD)
668.00
447.90
670.00
Neutral
Neutral
700
0.56
WHITBREAD
3116.00
2047.00
3225.00
Neutral
Sell
2204
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
464.20
269.35
471.30
Neutral
Sell
259
0.79
MARSTON'S
159.00
108.00
159.00
Sell
Sell
13
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
362.80
268.30
388.40
Neutral
Sell
342
1.17
CHESNARA
253.50
163.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
496
0.67
189.60
123.30
191.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
473
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
198.10
151.90
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
398
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1153.00
733.00
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1157
1.66
585.00
318.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6696
0.82
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
24 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
136.00
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.38
830.00
677.50
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
41.00
29.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.02
784.00
432.25
818.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1100.00
714.00
1105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.98
INFORMA
490.70
350.40
537.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.61
ITE GROUP
293.00
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.49
ITV
154.80
70.40
161.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.44
1.22
JOHNSTON PRESS
16.13
5.15
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1250.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.60
93.50
37.00
94.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.87
282.50
265.00
302.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.12
36.07
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.51
STV GROUP
152.50
81.50
152.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
157.00
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
120.00
26.50
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.60
UBM
682.50
588.50
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.31
0.86
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
162.50
88.00
166.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
WPP
1174.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.28
HIBU
0.22
0.21
1.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
674
0.98
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1435.00
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1223
1.84
198.50
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
210
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
857.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
848
1.43
1913.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2946
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
282.70
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1001
#NA
LONMIN
309.00
240.84
411.96
Sell
Buy
423
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4845.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2874
0.42
RIO TINTO
3000.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2385
1.54
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2760
2.25
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1210.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
867
BP
470.75
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
984
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
273.50
251.80
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-7
1.35
0.87
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.86
7.75
7.15
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
100
847.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
545
1.37
54.00
48.50
96.00
Neutral
Sell
-61
1.43
364.50
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Neutral
399
1.47
2303.50
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8098
0.86
373.60
310.60
404.30
Neutral
Buy
509
0.57
1041.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
691
1.08
894.00
720.50
906.50
Neutral
Sell
707
1.45
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
24 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
127.50
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
261
0.79
PZ CUSSONS
396.50
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
330
0.68
4630.00
3417.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4677
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.45
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-3
0.89
3290.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8983
0.49
BTG
382.50
300.30
397.90
Neutral
Sell
212
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
697.00
473.00
780.00
Neutral
Buy
902
0.20
1672.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1905
0.51
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.34
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-3
0.60
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Sell
-6
0.96
2229.00
1727.00
2256.00
Neutral
Sell
1517
0.66
SKYEPHARMA
62.75
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
100
0.68
VERNALIS
19.75
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.88
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
423.70
297.80
440.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
657
BRITISH LAND
617.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
769
1.05
2483.00
1886.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4559
1.21
586.00
418.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1053
1.05
HAMMERSON
536.50
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
510
1.24
INTU PROPERTIES
338.00
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Buy
506
1.12
957.50
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1620
1.14
0.87
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
1.15
25.75
24.25
40.75
Neutral
Sell
-141
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
114.30
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-3
0.30
MCKAY SECURITIES
149.00
130.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
0.66
400.00
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
236
0.36
331.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
98
0.30
41.75
25.86
43.25
Neutral
Sell
-344
0.64
SEGRO
301.70
221.60
306.60
Neutral
Sell
-239
1.80
SHAFTESBURY
640.50
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
788
1.02
193.50
162.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
18
1.03
1.00
1.00
2.52
Buy
Sell
-918
0.96
450.00
242.25
450.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1162
0.98
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
24 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
348.00
208.30
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
742
34.63
22.75
37.00
Sell
Sell
-50
0.68
CLS HOLDINGS
1012.00
645.00
1012.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2931
0.72
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
Target
Beta
0.65
3950.00
2706.00
4085.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7068
0.42
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
204.50
135.75
209.00
Neutral
Sell
190
0.92
GRAINGER
172.80
85.50
172.80
Sell
Sell
111
1.54
HELICAL BAR
295.00
178.00
297.50
Neutral
Sell
198
0.77
25.00
20.25
29.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
227
0.65
5765.00
4100.00
5950.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
14495
0.72
86.00
48.75
87.50
Sell
Sell
-199
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
71.00
61.10
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
212
1.51
615.00
365.00
619.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2189
0.73
85.50
71.50
88.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
382
0.35
ST MODWEN PROPS.
302.20
174.00
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
615
1.57
UNITE GROUP
383.40
207.50
389.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1642
1.78
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
131.90
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
127
0.73
2468.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1500
1.49
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
512.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1186
0.88
KOFAX
339.25
260.00
345.75
Neutral
Sell
310
1.07
29.00
18.25
29.50
Neutral
Sell
22
0.78
754.00
529.08
767.00
Neutral
Buy
891
0.80
PHOENIX IT GROUP
157.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
254
0.71
84.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.49
2070.00
1275.00
2137.00
Neutral
Neutral
2195
0.79
359.00
281.46
368.18
Neutral
Buy
441
0.71
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
408.40
247.70
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1200
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
248.50
144.60
249.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
637
0.69
9178.50
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
92693
0.85
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
419.63
260.00
420.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1391
0.96
CHARLES TAYLOR
185.00
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1595
0.68
1056.00
729.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4687
0.85
96.70
81.15
110.40
Neutral
Sell
69
0.88
4.27
0.55
4.57
Sell
Sell
-125
0.65
HENDERSON GROUP
173.30
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
786
1.44
ICAP
404.30
280.80
404.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
797
1.04
485.80
252.30
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2169
1.69
HELPHIRE GROUP
INVESTEC
452.50
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1624
1.56
1555.00
930.00
1590.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6177
1.08
87.85
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4747
1.39
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1684.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5361
0.75
SCHRODERS
2525.00
1266.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7978
1.27
SCHRODERS NV
1978.00
1016.00
2000.00
Sell
Strong Buy
10694
1.25
www.intellisys.uk.com
24 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
229.50
157.75
247.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
872
0.90
AGGREKO
1814.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4298
1.16
AMEC
1072.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3402
1.10
717.50
240.50
730.00
Neutral
Buy
1025
1.65
1183.00
844.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2695
0.48
597.00
352.00
597.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2424
0.80
1376.00
1009.00
1396.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2860
0.52
585.00
215.00
593.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1705
0.41
1054.00
677.50
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
215
0.53
66.50
27.33
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
496
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
876.00
647.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2036
0.74
BERENDSEN
822.50
499.00
823.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3468
1.04
DE LA RUE
967.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1471
#NA
DIGNITY
1550.00
830.00
1568.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3159
0.22
DIPLOMA
600.00
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1567
0.97
ELECTROCOMP.
249.40
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
954
1.02
ESSENTRA PLC
757.50
462.00
768.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1427
1.14
G4S
221.60
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
913
0.54
HAYS
105.50
68.20
106.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
471
1.05
HOMESERVE
292.00
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1004
0.91
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
INTERSERVE
Target
Beta
511.50
319.00
519.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3780
1.30
3063.00
2691.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4927
0.81
49.25
27.13
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
121
1.10
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
25.88
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
224
0.68
MENZIES (JOHN)
721.00
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1822
1.40
431.80
346.20
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
864
1.37
MITIE GROUP
268.00
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1088
0.50
INTERTEK GROUP
OFFICE2OFFICE
42.50
40.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
725
0.28
1089.00
670.50
1102.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2258
0.72
PREMIER FARNELL
221.50
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
743
1.40
REGUS
183.00
90.00
186.70
Neutral
Sell
58
1.40
95.90
70.35
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
277
1.29
PAYPOINT
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
487.70
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1831
0.86
RICARDO
425.50
336.00
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1721
0.87
ROBERT WALTERS
219.75
176.25
234.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1041
1.19
RPC GROUP
442.50
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1572
0.79
RPS GROUP
224.50
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1033
1.51
SERCO GROUP
620.50
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2439
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
85.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
279
1.50
SPEEDY HIRE
59.00
22.25
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
320
1.23
191.00
82.00
191.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
580
0.64
56.88
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
342
0.94
401.50
287.00
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2375
0.80
89.50
42.00
91.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
636
0.82
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
339.90
210.20
344.00
Neutral
Buy
419
41.00
29.64
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
78
0.69
708.00
468.90
749.00
Neutral
Sell
253
0.57
Beta
0.89
84.10
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
116
1.23
1323.00
790.00
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
790
0.03
192.90
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Sell
99
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
24 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
289.50
178.00
291.00
Neutral
Sell
228
435.00
350.00
443.00
Neutral
Buy
584
1.06
CLARKSON
1880.00
1150.00
1880.00
Sell
Sell
1316
0.84
EASYJET
1336.00
530.00
1406.00
Neutral
Sell
848
0.74
95.70
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
274
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1060.00
590.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
772
0.75
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1560.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2670
1.00
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.25
NATIONAL EXPRESS
245.50
164.50
250.00
Neutral
Neutral
242
1.40
NORTHGATE
365.00
195.50
369.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
624
1.33
STAGECOACH GROUP
331.80
265.90
334.40
Neutral
Buy
439
0.97
72.50
38.50
78.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
0.94
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
378.40
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
579
0.50
NATIONAL GRID
764.50
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
989
0.45
PENNON GROUP
691.50
598.00
771.50
Neutral
Sell
635
0.61
SSE
1590.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2283
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1747.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1511
0.34
713.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
756
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
24 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
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