July 17, 2013

LePage Losing Ground in Maine Post-Budget Veto
Survey Results Memo
To: From: Interested Parties Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research National Education Association

On the heels of a bi-partisan majority of state legislators voting to override the Governor’s budget veto and scathing reaction to yet another example of coarse public behavior and commentary, Paul LePage surrenders a convincing lead to challenger Mike Michaud in the 2014 race for Governor. Between July 11 and 16, 2013, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner interviewed 400 likely 2014 voters in the state of Maine. This survey was sponsored by the National Education Association and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.90 points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The results show an incumbent in deep trouble and challenger who clearly holds the pole position early in this race. Only 28 percent of voters—including just half of registered Republicans—commit to reelecting Paul LePage. Nearly two thirds (65 percent) would vote for someone new. When that “someone new” is Mike Michaud, the challenger vaults to 9-point lead over the incumbent in a three-way trial heat for Governor: 40 percent Michaud, 31 percent LePage, 26 percent Cutler. If Cutler drops out, this race become non-competitive, as Michaud crushes LePage by a 61 to 34 margin. Figure 1 – Maine Gubernatorial Matchups

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Survey memo

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Conclusion
It is still very early in the election season and the vagaries of a three-way contest for Governor are difficult to predict, but Mainers seem to have grown tired of LePage’s act and are finding an appealing alternative in Mike Michaud.

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July, 2013