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Roadmap Workshop Background Information: Biofuels and Bioenergy for Heat and Power

This brief outlines the IEAs analysis of biofuels in Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008 and the key aspects that will need to be addressed to develop a roadmap for advanced biofuels and a roadmap on bioenergy for heat and power. It tries to identify the key elements of IEAs projections and raises key issues for discussion during an intensive roadmapping meeting. Background: IEA Blue Map Scenario As described in ETP and elsewhere, bioenergy is the largest renewable energy contributor to global primary energy today and has the highest technical potential of all renewable energy sources according to IEA analysis in ETP. Currently, the biomass used inefficiently for traditional domestic cooking and space heating accounts for around two-thirds of total current demand. By 2050, a transition towards more efficient use in improved conversion technologies could occur, including liquid biofuels such as cellulosic ethnaol, Fischer-Tropsch diesel and others. In the ETP BLUE Map scenario, which is the most relevant for the IEA roadmapping process, energyrelated CO2 emissions are reduced by 50% in 2050 relative to their 2005 level. The scenario projects that global biomass use increases nearly four-fold by 2050, accounting for around 23% of total world primary energy (150 EJ/yr, 3 600 Mtoe/yr). This makes it by far the most important renewable energy source. Such a level would require in the region of 15 000 Mt of biomass to be delivered to processing plants annually. Around half of this is expected to come from crop and forest residues, with the remainder from purpose-grown energy crops. This will require the equivalent of around half the land area currently used for agricultural production in Africa. Around 700 Mtoe/yr of the total biomass will be consumed to produce transport biofuels, and a similar amount to generate 2 450 TWh/yr of power. This includes biomass co-fired with coal and used in combined heat- and power-generation systems (CHP). The remaining 2 200 Mtoe will be used for bio-chemicals, heating and cooking (including solid biomass combustion and DME production), and in industry (including process steam from CHP plants and black liquor). Figure 1. Biomass and biofuels consumption in ETP 2010 Blue Map. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 Baseline Scenario for Blue Map Scenario for 2050 2050 World primary energy demand Primary biomass demand Share of total primary energy demand Final bioenergy demand Share of total final energy demand Industry sector Share of total Transport Share of total Other sectors Share of total
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

22 100 Mtoe (930 EJ) 410 Mtdry (80 EJ) 9% 1 400 Mtoe (60 EJ) 10% 380 Mtoe (16 EJ) 9% 160 (7 EJ) 4% 850 Mtoe (36 EJ) 18%

18 000 Mtoe (670 EJ) 710 Mtdry (140 EJ) 21% 1 850 Mtoe (80 EJ) 19% 520 Mtoe (22 EJ) 18% 760 Mtoe (32 EJ) 27% 560 Mtoe (24 EJ) 18%

OECD/IEA, 2010

Estimates of future biomass supply and demand vary widely. The scope for biomass to make a significantly larger contribution to primary energy in the next 30 to 40 years is subject to its sustainable production, improved efficiency in the supply chain, the successful development and deployment of new thermo-chemical technologies, and improved bio-chemical conversions (in for example, anaerobic digestion and ethanol-fermentation plants). The demand for large volumes of traditional solid biomass is likely to be at least partly displaced by more convenient liquid fuels or the use of other energy sources, particularly as people move progressively from rural areas into cities. The greater uptake of improved cooking stove designs, community biogas plants, stirling engines for CHP, and larger scale heat plants to support rural development in developing countries should improve the overall conversion efficiency of biomass use. New approaches, such as combining biomass conversion with carbon capture and storage (CCS) or ways of encouraging soil carbon uptake, may further contribute to global CO2 reductions. The amount of feedstock available for bioenergy will depend upon a wide range of government and local policies, including those in relation to: land use and land-use change; biodiversity; reclamation of degraded lands; genetically modified crops; soil carbon uptake; water use and quality; treatment of wastewater and solid wastes; sustainable development goals; health improvements; support for rural industries; the provision of low-cost energy to stimulate economic growth. The future uptake of biomass for energy will be determined, at least in part, by the impact such policies have on bioenergy projects. Policies supporting a greater uptake of bioenergy could be offset by others constraining it. For example, the biofuels have recently been heavily accused to increase deforestation and the deterioration of wetlands and peat soils, resulting in increased CO2 emissions.

The IEA roadmap approach: The ETP report contains the outlines of roadmaps for 20 key technologies to achieve long term CO2 reduction targets. At the request of the 2008 G8 Hokkaido Summit the IEA has been asked to prepare more detailed roadmaps to advance key innovative energy technologies to achieve this goal by 2050. Our overall aim is to advance global development and uptake of key technologies to reach a 50% reduction in energy related CO2 emissions by 2050, as identified in ETP 2008 and further investigated in ETP 2010 (available July 1). The roadmaps will be developed by the IEA in close consultation with governments and industry. The roadmaps will enable governments, industry and financial partners to identify the steps needed and to implement measures to accelerate the required technology development and uptake. A technology roadmap is defined as a dynamic set of technical, policy, legal, financial, market and organisational requirements identified and agreed to by all stakeholders involved in its development. An energy technology roadmap should lead to improved and enhanced sharing and collaboration of all related technology-specific research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) information among participants. The goal is to accelerate the overall RDD&D process in order to deliver an earlier uptake of the specific energy technology into the marketplace. For this roadmap process, our approach will be the following: 1. Roadmaps will be based on the ETP 2010 Blue Map scenario and the respective ETP 2008 roadmap outline as the starting point. This will serve as the starting point which each of the technology sessions can build on. 2. Intensive roadmap development sessions will be held at the IEA. The sessions will focus on what needs to be done to move towards the 2050 Blue Map targets.

OECD/IEA, 2010

3. The sessions will be 2-day events where around 40 invitees will meet to provide thoughts and inputs into the IEA roadmap process. 4. The outcome will be identification of and (to the extent possible) agreement on the key elements of more detailed roadmaps, allowing the subsequent preparation of 20-25 page papers that will then be re-circulated to participants for their review. The workshop sessions include: Assessing the current state of the art of biomass potential estimates and idetifying major uncertainties and gaps in the analysis Identifying the steps needed to ensure sustainability of biomass supply for bioenergy and liquid biofuel production Advancing international cooperation and public-private-partnerships to ensure a sustainable biomass supply for bioenergy production.

Each roadmap process will identify major barriers, opportunities, and measures for policy makers and industry and financial partners to accelerate RDD&D efforts for specific clean technologies on both a national and international level. Roadmap elements should include (but are not limited to): technology/cost targets, evaluation/assessment criteria and indicators, required policy and institutional measures, and existing and needed international cooperation/collaboration. IEA roadmaps will be developed with countries, industry and existing international partnerships. Our approach will start with existing technology roadmaps as the vehicle for further developing a process aimed at accelerating international collaboration/cooperation and public-private partnerships for clean energy technologies. There will also be an overarching approach developed for updating the roadmaps in the future and incorporating the emergence of new technologies or other relevant developments on a regular basis.

OECD/IEA, 2010

The IEA roadmap workshop on sustainable feedstock supply for bioenergy and biofuels
This workshop will feed into two separate roadmap efforts, one addressing the development of advanced biofuels over the next 40 years, the other addressing bioenergy for heat and power generation. All of the considered conversion routes will ultimately compete for the same feedstock, i.e. biomass. Therefore, the workshop will adress how sufficient amounts of feedstock for heat, power and biofuels could be provided in a sustainable way. The roadmap workshop is designed as an interactive expert meeting, aiming on intensive discussions between different stakeholders from policy, research and industry. In order to ensure sufficient time for discussions, only a few introductory presentations will be given to kick start discussions. The ETP Blue Map scenario projections outlined above will serve as the basis for discussions. However, if the workshop shows that considerably lower or higher amounts of biomass could be available in a sustainable manner, these results will be considered for the further work on both roadmaps. Aspects related to technology development will not be discussed in detail, since these questions have been / will be adressed in separate expert meetings (for biofuels see the attached summary of the technology workshop in April). In general, the first step in the workshop will be to identify the key roadmap elements related to sustainable feedstock supply. Boundaries on what the roadmap process will consider will be discussed, and assessment/evaluation criteria for use in the process will be assessed. Next we will need to characterise the current state of research and development efforts as of 2010. Then targets should be developed for milestone years in the future (e.g. 2015, 2020, 2030) in terms of improvements in feedstock supply (including production and trade), reductions in cost, target R&D termination dates, etc. All of these will ultimately be indicative, since no central authority exists to carry out such a plan. However the goal is to provide a common view on how the market could develop in an optimal fashion, and what each type of stakeholder (including governments) need to do to help make this happen. The workshop is held under Chatham House Rule under which participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.

Key questions to address during the roadmap workshop will include: What are the current estimates of the resource base for biomass production and how might this develop? o Residues o Dedicated energy crops How consistent/reliable are these estimates and what are the major uncertainties? How could the estimates be improved? What are the key factors in the assumptions that determine how much biomass can be made available? In which regions are the best prospects for biomass production today/2030/2050? What would be the import/export balance for bioenergy in different regions? o Where would trade be needed and where would it be feasible? o What needs to happen on policy/industry/research level to allow sufficient international trade? What are the costs for large scale biomass supply envisaged for the short-, medium-, and long-term? o For different feedstocks? o In different regions?

OECD/IEA, 2010

What are the key cost-factors? How and when can production costs be brought down (e.g. new transport infrastructure, yield improvement)? How can a sustainable production and use of bioenergy/ biofuels be ensured? Which level of international cooperation will be required? o Are international certification systems feasible/needed? o How can capacity building in developing countries be promoted? What would be the specific benefits of increased bioenergy/biofuel production and use in various regions (e.g. developing countries compared to emerging and industrialised countries)?

OECD/IEA, 2010