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APPLICATION OF INDEX PROCEDURES TO FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALUSIS IN TURKEY

NDICE
APPLICATION OF INDEX PROCEDURES TO FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALUSIS IN TURKEY....................................................................................................................................... 2 I. II. ABSTRACT: .................................................................................................................... 2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 2 THE REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS .................................................................. 3 III. APPLICATION OF THE IFM ..................................................................................... 5

STATISTICAL PROPERTIES ........................................................................................... 5 TESTING FOR REGIONAL HOMOGENEITY ............................................................... 7 HOMOGENEITY TEST...................................................................................................... 7 IV. V. RESULTS .................................................................................................................. 14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................... 18

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APPLICATION OF INDEX PROCEDURES TO FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALUSIS IN TURKEY

APPLICATION OF INDEX PROCEDURES TO FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALUSIS IN TURKEY


I. ABSTRACT:

This study investigates the regional analysis of annual maximum flood series of 48 stream gauging stations in the basins of the west Mediterranean region in Turkey. The region is divided into three homogeneous subregions according to both Student-t test and Dalrymple homogeneity test. The regional relationships of mean annual flood per unit area-drainage area and coefficient of skew-coefficient of variation are obtained. Two statistically meaningful relationships of thee mean flood per unit areadrainage area and a unique relationship between skewness and variation coefficients exist. Results show that the index-flood method may be applicable to each homogenous subregion to estimate flood quantiles in the study area. (KEY TERMS: flood regionalization; Gumbel distribution; flood-index method; regional homogenity; flood frequency.) Saf: betl, 2008. Application of index procedures to Flood Frequency Analysis in Turkey. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 44(1):37-47. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00136.x

II.

INTRODUCTION

Floods cause damage to properties and agricultural lands that result in an economic loss for the affected areas. Besides these direct costs, floods can cause loss of life, injury, inconvenience, and other indirect losses. One method of decreasing flood damages and economic losses is to use flood frequency analysis for determining efficient designs of hydraulic structures, such as dams, spillways, highway bridges, culverts, water-supply systems, and flood control structures. Underdesign of hydraulic structure, such as a spillway , may cause failure, while overdesign may be safe but can be costly an optimum design can be achieved whit proper flood frequency and risk analyses. At-site estimation of floods considers only the data available from the specific site under consideration, and the reliability of the estimate is directly related to length of record information available. Regional flood frequency analysis may be preferable to an at-site frequency analysis for two main reasons. First, because of short record length, individual stations in any watershed may have large sampling errors, and these errors can be reduced by combining data from many sites. Second is the amount of hydrologic data needed at one site. Thus, transformation from gauged sites to ungauged sites is required. The regional flood analysis incorporates two main steps; first, the identification of homogenous regions, and second, the establishment of a flood frequency distribution model for each region. Several approaches have been proposed for the delineation of homogeneous regions (Wiltshire, 1986; Cavadias, 1990; Burn 1190a,b; 1997;Zrinji and Burn, 1993, 1994; ouarda et al., 2201)and for regional estimation (dalrymple, 1960; hosking et al., 1985; Fill and Stedinger, 1998; Pandey and Nguyen 1999). Cunnane (1998) provided a HH113-G Pgina 2

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general review of flood frequency analysis. More recently, theoretical and numerical comprasion of the various regional estimation methodologies was presented in detail by GREHYS (1996a,b). The index-flood method (IFM) is commonly used to develop flood frequency models for gauged in stations, where hydrologic information is not sufficiently available. As Maidment (1993) pointed out, the IFM is an accurate method when its assumptions are satisfied. The basic assumptions of the IFM are that the region under consideration is homogeneous in terms of the coefficient of variation (i.e., the Cv of flood data series is constant within the region), and that the data at all sites in the homogeneous region follow the same distribution. Cunnane (1998) found that the IFM with a regional Wakeby distribution is the best regional procedure. Moreover, Potter and Lettenmaier (11990) found that better results could be achieved whit a regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Pitlick (1994) obtained regional flood frequency curves via the IFM for five regions in the western United States based on probability-weighted moments of the GEV distribution. The IFM was applied to the Portugal mainland, based on the records of annual maximum flood series at 120 Portuguese stream gauging stations (SGS) (Portela and Dias, 2005). As a result six homogeneous regions were identified, and the models applicable to each region to estimate flood quantiles were established. In Canada, there are 21 studies for the various regions of the country that use the IFM method (Watt et al., 1989). In this paper, regional flood frequency curves are developed based on the flood index method and relationship(s) of mean annual flood (MAF) whit drainage area for ungauged sites, which take as inputs flood data for basins of the West Mediterranean region of Turkey. THE REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS Gumbel Distribution The Gumbel distribution is commonly used for maximum storm and flood events. The cumulative probability function of the distribution is ( ) [ ( )] (1)

Correspondingly, the T-year flood is given by (2) [ ( ] (3) is the

Where is the location parameter, is the scale parameter, and Gumble reduced variate for a T-year return period.

The mean and the variance of Gumble distribution are calculated as follows: , Where as HH113-G (4)

is Eulers constant. Hence the T-year event can be written

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(5)

Where is the frequency factor that depends on the return period. For N , the asymptotic values of the frequency factor ( ) can be written as

(6)

Gumbel Distribution of Index Flood Consider homogeneous region with M sites, each site j having sample size ( ) and an observed annual flood series in year . The flood series from a homogeneous region are identically distributed except for a site specific scaling factor viz., the FIM. At each site, the flood series is normalized by

(7)

Where is the MAF at Site j, which is often used as the index-flood and is the dimensionless flood coefficients. Each set of ( ) has the characteristics of and according to the expectations laws and the variance theorems, and its skewness has the same skewness as ( ( ) ( )). This variable transformation produces observations at each SGS in the series whit the same mean ( ), but different variation coefficients. In this way, the comparison of flood observations at different SGSs and also the comparison of various probability distribution characteristics can be easily performed. According to the above transformation, the T-year dimensionless flood coefficient of any SGS can be written as (8)

When the Gumble distribution like the two-parameter lognormal distribution, is selected to be representative for all SGSs in the region. Its distribution characteristics will depend on the variation coefficients. Therefore, the regional frequency distribution of dimensionless floods will only depend on the regional coefficient of variation (( ), given as (NREC, 1975)

( (

) )

(9)

This value may be regarded as the expected value of variation coefficients in the homogeneous region. Then, the parameters of the regional Gumble distribution are given as (10) HH113-G Pgina 4

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III. APPLICATION OF THE IFM


The study area covers the three major hydrologic basins in the West Mediterranean region of Turkey (see Figure 1). The General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (GDSHW) and General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (GDEPSD) are responsible for the measurement of stream data. The basins are named the West Mediterranean Basin (8th), Antalya Basin (9th), and Burdur-Lakes Basin (10th). River flows in the basins of the West Mediterranean Region are fed by rainfall snowmelt, and karstic springs. Meanwhile, annual peak floods, especially at the Upper-West Mediterranean subregion, are due to snowmelt. In the remaining parts of the region, floods are caused by either heavy rainfall or snowmelt. Taking this fact into account, the study area is divided into three subregions, namely the UpperWest Mediterranean, the Lower-West Mediterranean, and the Antalya subregion. Principal tributaries of the 8th basin are the Dalman, Esencay, and Basgoz Rivers, and of the 9th basin are Aksu, Koprucay, Manavgat, and Alara Rivers, all originating in the Taurus Mountains and flowing into the Mediterranean. The largest tributary in the Burdur-Lakes basin is the Bozcay. The total drainage area of the three basins is almost 48,000 km2 (GDSHW, 2000), with 48 streams gauging stations 19 of them operated by GDEPSD (1956/2000) and 29 by GDSHW. The GDSHW stations are identified by two numbers with the first number indicating the basin number (for example, 08-019, 09-002, 10-002). The stations operated by GDEPSD have a three or fout digit numbers in which the first or first two digits designates the basin number (for example, 802, 901, 1003). STATISTICAL PROPERTIES The mean (Q0), standard deviation (s), coefficients of variation and skewness ( ), and mean annual flood per unit area (q0) of the historical data at 48 gauging sites were obtained. A total of 48 historic time series of annual peak flow discharges of West Mediterranean rivers were available for a common period of years, from 1940 to 2000. The drainage areas ranged from 36 2 to 6472 km , and the coefficients of variation ranged from 0.167 to 1.823, with a mean of equal to 0.756. All coefficients of variation ranged from 0.3 to 1, except at eight stations (906, 08-018, 09-007, 09-022, 09-039, 1003, 10-010, and 10-011). Furthermore annual peak floods at all gauging sites are positively skewed except at four stations (807, 906, 09-021, and 10-023). In addition the peak floods at 09-011 and 09-042 are highly skewed. Because natively skewed flood series are likely to occur in basins with substantial surface and underground storage from year to year, the stream gauging stations that have negative skewness coefficients are omitted from the analysis. Mean Annual Flood per Unit Area-Drainage Area Relationships The IFM is based on the identification of homogeneous groups of sites for which the T-years flood can be expressed as the product of two terms. These two terms are scale factor, which is called the index flood, and a growth factor, which describes the relationship between the dimensionless flood and the HH113-G Pgina 5

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recurrence interval, T.A fundamental assumption of the IFM is that flood data at different sites in a region will follow the same distribution except for a scale or an index factor, which is a function of the physiographical basin characteristics. The catchment area is usually the most important factor is designated as the flood magnitudes. The scaling factor is designated as the flood-index and is usually taken as the mean annual flood. For ungauged catchments, at-site means cannot be computed in absence of observed flow data. In such a situation, a relationship between the mean annual peak flood of gauged catchments in the region and their pertinent physiographic and climatic characteristics is needed. As drainage areas (A) of the various gauging sites were the only physiographic characteristics readily available , a regional relationship has been developed in terms of drainage area for estimation of mean annual peak flood (Qmean) for ungauged catchments. In this study, two distinct zones were determined for the regional relationships ) and catchment area 8a). between mean annual flood per unit area ( The regional relationships between and A were deloped in the log domain using a least squares approach. The relationship between mean annual flood per unit area and drainage area in the Lower Zone was calculated as ( ) for and (11)

Similarly, the Upper Zone relationship is ( ) (12)

for and , where A designates the catchment area, in km2, and is the mean annual flood per unit area in (m3/s/km2), N is the number of gauging stations, and is the correlation coefficient between the mean annual floods per unit area and drainage areas of the SGSs. Skewness Variation Coefficient Relationship In the regional flood frequency analyses, the skewness coefficient is an important parameter that can describe whether the assumed probability distribution model for the peak flow values in a region is consistent or not. Lettenmaier an Potter (1985) showed that the performance of the IFM gets worse as either the regional mean increases. Homogeneity would be expected to increase as regions are defined to include a smaller number of sites. However, the performance of regional estimators also declines as smaller and smaller regions are defined, because of the increasing variance of parameter estimates. This suggests that a compromise is required. This can be achieved by recognizing that different key characteristics of flood behavior are approximately constant over different spatial scales. By measuring different flood characteristics at different scales, we can maximize the benefits of pooling data while minimizing the consequences of defining too large a region. HH113-G Pgina 6

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In this study the linear relationship between the coefficient of skewness and variation and is obtained as (13) where stations and

TESTING FOR REGIONAL HOMOGENEITY Estimation of Missing Records The Dalrympie (1960) method is a regional averaging IFM using records of equal length, N. Whit this method, the missing records of the SGSs must be filled. Dalrymple (1960) used regression analysis to fill records, but other record filling methods have been reviewed, analyzed, and improved by Vogel and Stedinger (1985). In this study, the stations with longer records in the study area 901, 902, 802, and 809. Station 701 was also used, although it is not within the study area, as a base station representative of the 8th and 9thmajor basins to fill in missing data in these basins. The common period of observation is selected as 19402000, as nonce of the stations have records prior to 1940 (except 701). Missing records at the stations in the study area were estimated by linear and nonlinear regression analysis. For example, the missing records of Station 802 in 19591963 and 1971-2000 were estimated by 809. The power law regression between 802 and 809 is 0.3831; ( ) (14)

HOMOGENEITY TEST General. As a first approximation, regional homogeneity test were performed on grouped stations based on their geographic proximity, whit the first group being 901 and 906, and the second group being 8-009, 8-061, 8-070, 9-047, 9-065, 10-013, and 10-023. This did not satisfy the regional homogeneity conditions required. To preserve the base station Homa (901), another approach for the partition of the study area, which consists of the three subregions, was tried. After carious trials partitioning of the study area into subregions, it was decided that Stations 08-018, 8-054, and 08-055 from the 8th basin, and 09-002, 09007, 09-011, 09-018,09-021,09-022, 09-039, 09-042, 09-047, and 09-065 from the 9th basin should be included with the 10th basin for homogeneity testing. These three subregions are now called the Lower-West Mediterranean subregion, Upper-West Mediterranean subregion, and Antalya subregion. In tables 4-6, is the critical value at a selected level of confidence. Student Test on Coefficients of Variation. To test whether or not the sample variation coefficient at any station is significantly different from the regional variation coefficient ( ), the studentstatistic ( ) and the standard error of the variation coefficient ( ) of a random variable that follows a Gumble distribution are calculated as follow (Yevjevich, 1972): HH113-G Pgina 7

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(15)

{[

(16)

The statistic follows a student- distribution with degrees of freedom. A comparison of with the critical value at a selected level of confidence is performed. The regional variation coefficients of each subregion, along with sample estimates of variation coefficients at each site and their standard errors ( ), were calculated. Regional parameters of the homogenous subregions are given in Table 1, and the Student- statics ( ) and 95% confidence limits ( ) for each gauging site are given null hypothesis is strictly rejected for one station (812) in the Lower-West Mediterranean subregion, one station (906) in the Antalya subregion, and seven stations (08-55,09-002, 09021, 09-047, 10-002, 10-013, and 10-023) in the Upper-West Mediterranean subregion. Dalrymples Homogeneity Test for Index Flood. The homogeneity test recommended by Dalrymple (1960) has been very popular among practicing hydrologists and has been recommended in various studies (Chow, 1988; Kite, 1988; Singh, 1992). The homogeneity test is based on an assumed underlying Gumble population. In this method, the mean annual flood ( ) of each at-site , the 10-year dimensionless flood coefficients ( ), and the mean of the 10-year dimensionless flood coefficients () are calculated at each station in the region.

In this method, missing records in the common period are filled in by interstation correlations. Data points are filled in this way are not used directly but only as aids in assigning representative return periods to the recorded events. Both the mean annual floods and return periods ( ) of the gauging stations in the common period are calculated analytically assuming a Gumbel distribution.

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For this purpose, the mean, the standard deviation, and variation coefficient, of the completed datasets are calculated. As the sample sizes at each site are equal, the mean regional variation coefficient of the completed series is equal to the arithmetic mean of the variation coefficients of the gauging stations in the region. The return period Tej corresponding to b10 in the parent distribution of each gauging station are calculated as follows: Tej = (1-exp (-exp (- (( 10-1) / Cvoj + 0,45) / 0,7797)))^-118 Darlymple 1960 has derived the confidence limits (CL) for the standard derivation of the reduced variable Yt as. (yT) exp (yT)/( )
j

19

Assuming the yT values are normally distributed around the expected value E(yT) as yTj (CL) = E (yT)zc

.20

for 95% confidence, the standard normal deviate is approximately Zc=2. Substituting Zc=2, T=10, and y10=2.25(for gumbel distribution, expected value HH113-G Pgina 10

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of the reduced variate Yt corresponding to T=10 years is 2.25) in equation (20) the confidence limits of the reduced variate are U10j (CL) =E (yT)

.21

Moreover, dalrymple (1960) has recommended using the average efficient sample size by the following equation, instead of the actual record lengths, Nj Nej = ..22

The 95% confidence limits of the reduced variable corresponding to a return period of 10 years can then be written as U10f (CL) =2.25

..23

The 95% confidence limits of the return periods corresponding to b10 and estimated from Naj samples are then calculated by LCL(Tej)=(1-exp(-exp LCL(U10j)))^-1 ..24a LCL(Tej)=( 1-exp(-exp UCL(U10j)))^-1..24b The regional homogeneity hypothesis is rejected if Tej of the jth station lies outside the confidence limits. In this study, both the mean annual flood (x) and recurrence intervals (Tej) of the SGSs in the common period are calculated analytically with respect to the gumbel distribution. For this purpose, the mean, standard deviation and variation coefficients of the completed datasets are calculated (xoj, Soj, Cvoj). As the sample size at each site is equal to the arithmetic mean of the variation coefficients of variation is computed as Cvo = . . .25

Substituting this statistic in equation (8), the regional dimensionless flood frequency factor relationship can be written as T = 1+KT Cvo26 It should be noted that the b10 value defined by equation (17) can be replaced by the value that is calculated from equation (27) for T=10 years. 10 = 1+K10Cvo .27 Furthermore, the Tej value at any site can be estimated analytically by using the individual variation coefficient (Cvoj) of that SGS in the asymptotic relations. Tej = (1-exp (-exp (- (( 10-1) / Cvoj + 0,45) / 0,7797)^-128

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To check if some gauging stations do not satisfy regional homogeneity Dalrymples 10 year event test was applied to each station. For this purpose, the return periods (Tej) corresponding to the regional dimensionless flood (b10) were calculated using the extended data at each site (Tables 5-7). According to Dalrymples test, two gauges (818 and 08-058) in the Lower-West Mediterranean subregion, five gauges (o8-055, 09-018, 09-021, 09-047, and 10-013) in the Upper-West Mediterranean subregion, and one gauge (906) in the Antalya subregion were omitted. These stations are showed with ($) in tables 5-7.

TABLE 5. Dalrymple Test for Regional Homogeneity of SGSs in the Lower-West Mediterranean. Station N 802 807 808 809 811 812 815 818 08-001 08-009 08-013 08-019 08-028 08-049 08-058 08-060 08-061 08-070 b10 1.6645 1.968 2.0204 1.8778 1.7253 1.5784 1.8487 1.406 2.6698 1.6481 1.9032 1.8668 1.7655 1.8241 1.4911 1.98 2.1842 1.9053 Ne 44 36 50 53 50 49 45 42 44 46 43 47 49 46 37 42 45 45 Te LCL(Te) 18 8 8 9 13 21 10 58 5 16 9 10 12 10 32 8 6 9 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 UCL (Te) 25 28 24 23 24 24 25 26 25 25 26 24 24 25 28 26 25 25

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TABLE 6. Dalrymple Test for Regional Homogeneity of SGSs in the Lower-West Mediterranean.

Station N 08-018 08-054 08-055 09-002 09-007 09-011 09-018 09-021 09-022 09-039 09-042 09-047 09-065 1001 1003 10-002 10-010 10-011 10-013 10-023

b10 2.5244 3.111 1.6098 1.9352 2.39 2.6216 1.5589 1.5763 2.2343 2.0455 2.1811 1.5557 2.3074 2.3376 2.5423 2.3408 3.1908 3.1908 1.6387 3.17

Ne 49 47 43 51 41 49 36 36 37 45 42 40 43 36 42 45 41 42 44 42

Te 8 5 58 18 9 7 80 71 10 14 11 82 10 9 8 9 8 5 50 5

LCL(Te) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

UCL (Te) 24 24 26 24 26 24 28 28 27 25 26 26 25 28 26 25 26 26 25 25

TABLE 7. Dalrymple Test for Regional Homogeneity of SGSs in the Lower-West Mediterranean.

Station N 901 902 906 911 912 916 917 918 09-034 HH113-G

b10 1.3783 1.6828 1.1684 1.4983 1.4157 1.4657 1.5721 1.5387 1.4951

Ne 53 61 39 36 49 42 42 44 37

Te 15 6 187 9 12 10 8 8 9

LCL(Te) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

UCL (Te) 23 22 27 28 24 26 26 25 27 Pgina 13

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IV.

RESULTS

This study attempted to use all unregulated gauging stations in the study area. Gauging stations having long-term observation records were preferred. But stations having shorter periods of observations were also considered with regression relations between stream gauging stations used were poor, records of stations having short observations were extended to the common period, 1940-2000. Initially, a total of 48 stream gauging stations were used, and general statistical properties like variation and skewness coefficient of the stream gauging stations, whether or not variation coefficients were different from regional variation coefficient were evaluated. A total of mine eight nonhomogeneous stations were determined by STUDENT-t test and Dalrymple test, respectively, and omitted from the study. The main objective of this study was to develop regional flood frequency estimates for hydrologically homogeneous subregions, from which design event magnitudes at desired location can be estimated. Statistical and distributional characteristics of at-site flood data, mean annual flood per unit vs drainage area and coefficient of skew vs.coefficient of variation relationships were investigated. Three homogeneous subregion were identified and the models applicable to each region to estimate flood quantiles were established. The adopted index-flood was the mean annual flood. The regional frequency distributions of the dimensionless floods at given return periods were determined for the three subregions, namely the Upper-West Mediterranean, the Lower-West Mediterranean, and Antalya regions of Turkey. Regional parameters of the homogeneous subregions The mean and the regional values of variation and skewness coefficients (C,Cs,RC,RCs) of each homogeneous subregion were estimated through the simple linear regression (equation 13) using RC, as the independent variable(see Table 1) The dimensionless peak floods, estimated individually at each site for T=5,10,20,and 100 year return periods, along with their averages, are computed under the assumption function at all sites is the Gumbel distribution. The parameter estimates given in Tables 8-10 are also the asymptotic moment estimators of and . Hidrologically Homogeneous Subregions Regional homogeneity can be considered as a special case regional smoothing where the component is constant. The two most commonly considered measures by which regional homogeneity is assessed are dimensionless scale and shape parameters, usually expressed as Cv and Cs. Alternatively, a particular flood quantile, normalized by division by a particular index flood (Dalrymple, 1960), may be the measure by which homogeneity is assessed. Under the hypothesis that the Gumbel distribution is valid for all the gauging sites in these three subregions, the Student-t test for equality of station and HH113-G Pgina 14

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subregion variation coefficients and Dalrymples 10 year event recurrence interval test were both applied at a 5% significance level. Results showed that stations 812 in the Lower-West Mediterranean subregion; 08-055, 09-002, 09021, 09-047, 10-002, 10-013,and 10-023 in the Upper-West Mediterranean subregion; and 906 in the Antalya subregion did not satisfy the regional homogeneity conditions. Therefore, the remaining steps of regional analysis were carried out by omitting these stations (remaining were 17 stations in the Upper-West Mediterranean, 8 in the Antalya subregion and 19 in the LowerWest Mediterranean). Table 8. Dimensionless Floods for Various Return Periods in the Lower-West Mediterranean. Estacin N Cv 802 807 808 809 811 815 08-001 08-009 08-013 08-019 08-028 08-049 08-060 08-061 08-070 Mean 1.198 1.148 0.678 0.619 1.061 0.806 1.14 0.517 0.666 0.623 0.578 0.638 0.715 0.529 0.873 0.7322 T=5 T=10 2.563 2.498 1.885 1.807 2.384 2.051 2.488 1.675 1.868 1.812 1.754 1.832 1.933 1.69 2.139 1.9553 T=20 3.236 3.142 2.265 2.154 2.979 2.503 3.128 1.965 2.242 2.162 2.078 2.19 2.335 1.987 2.629 2.3662 T=50 4.106 3.977 2.758 2.604 3.75 3.088 3.956 2.341 2.726 2.614 2.498 2.654 2.885 2.371 3.263 2.8982 T=100 4.758 4.602 3.127 2.94 4.327 3.527 4.577 2.623 3.088 2.953 2.813 3.001 3.244 2.659 3.738 3.2968

1.07053 0.4609 1.862 1.11716 0.4834 1.826 1.89159 0.6949 1.488 2.07189 0.7215 1.445 1.20877 0.5226 1.763 1.59119 0.6373 1.58 1.125 0.487 1.821

2.48066 0.7674 1.372 1.92568 0.7003 1.479 2.05859 0.7197 1.448 2.21886 0.7399 1.416 2.01019 0.7129 1.459 1.79371 0.6783 1.515 2.42439 0.762 1.381

1.46907 0.6072 1.628 1.75157 0.6705 1.5268

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Table 9. Dimensionless Floods in the Upper West Mediterranean. Estacin N Cv 08-018 08-054 09-007 09-011 09-022 09-039 09-042 1001 1003 10-010 10-011 mean 1.168 0.836 1.514 1.273 0.964 0.822 0.927 1.025 1.182 1.152 1.679 1.0578 T=5 T=10 2.524 2.091 2.976 2.66 2.258 2.073 2.209 2.338 2.542 2.503 3.191 2.38 T=20 3.18 2.56 3.82 3.37 2.8 2.53 2.73 2.91 3.2 3.15 4.23 2.97 T=50 4.03 3.167 4.93 4.23 3.5 3.13 3.4 3.66 4.07 3.99 5.35 3.74 T=100 4.665 3.623 5.75 4.992 4.024 3.579 3.907 4.216 4.708 4.615 5.267 4.32

1.09803 0.4744 1.841 1.53409 0.6238 1.602 0.84709 0.3187 2.09 1.00746 0.4272 1.916 1.33039 0.5662 1.694 1.56022 0.6301 1.592 1.3835 0.5829 1.667

1.25122 0.5388 1.738 1.08503 0.4681 1.851 1.11328 0.4816 1.829 0.76385 0.2445 2.208 1.21242 0.524 1.7614

Tabla 10. Inundaciones adimensional en la subregin de Antalya Estacin N Cv 901 902 911 912 916 917 918 09-034 mean 0.29 0.523 0.393 0.346 0.411 0.439 1.898 1.802 0.7627 T=5 T=10 1.373 1.683 1.513 1.452 1.536 1.572 3.476 3.351 1.995 T=20 1.541 1.977 1.733 1.646 1.766 1.818 4.541 4.362 2.223 T=50 1.752 2.357 2.019 1.898 2.065 2.137 5.92 5.671 2.9773 T=100 1.909 2.642 2.233 2.086 2.289 2.376 6.953 6.652 3.392

4.42241 0.8695 1.209 2.4522 0.7647 1.377

3.26336 0.8232 1.283 3.70665 0.8443 1.249 3.12044 0.8151 1.296 2.92141 0.8025 1.316 0.67571 0.1459 2.366 0.71171 0.1891 2.296 1.68153 0.6568 1.549

Regional Relationships The correspondence of mean annual floods per unit area to the drainage area indicated that these exist two distinct relations for the study area, with the relationship of the Lower Zone differing from, but having the same form as, that of the Upper Zone (Equations 11 and 12). In the study, the relationship between skewness and variation coefficients is statiscally meaningful. Although the regression coefficient (the slope) of Equation (13) is very close to 3 (as for the lognormal), and the derived HH113-G Pgina 16

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relationship is close to that for the Gamma, none of the probability distribution functions has evaluated similar behavior for the whole region. When the regional values of skew in the three subregions are considered, the choice of Gumbel distribution has been approved for the Lower West Mediterranean, Upper West Mediterranean, and Antalya subregions, but not for the entire West Mediterranean has the regional skewness in that region is almost three times the theoretical skew of the Gumbel distribution(y1=1.14). Using the regional values of coefficient of variation of the three subregions the following dimensionless flood frequency factor relationships were obtained as follows: For the Upper-West Mediterranean bt=1+0.9529KT For the Lower-West Mediterranean bt=1+ 0.5933Kt for the Antalya subregion bt=1-0.4848kT WhereKt is the frequency factor.

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V.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

In hydrology, sufficient information is rarely available at a site to adequately determine the frequency of rare events. This is certainly the case for the extremely rare events, which are of interest in hydraulic structures safety and risk assessment. Coping with floods in an efficient manner and reducing damages necessitate efficient methods of forecasting to provide sufficient lead-times to alert people living in the flood zones. In this study, the regional analysis of annual peak floods in the basins of the West Mediterranean Region of Turkey has been investigated. First, regional relationships of mean annual flood per unit area-drainage area and coefficient of skew-coefficient of variation were examined. Second two statistically meaningful relationships of mean flood-per unit area and drainage area were obtained, one for the Upper Zone and one for the Lower Zone. After removal of gauging stations that did not satisfy regional homogeneity conditions, regional values of variation and skewness coefficients were estimated, and a unique relationship between skewness and variation coefficients relatively close to that of Gamma distribution was determinated. IFM in available data at 48 gauging stations has shown that the study area that is almost 48.132 km2 should be divided into three subregions as the Lower- West Mediterranean the Upper- West Mediterranean, and the Antalya subregion. This study serves as a preliminary aid in estimating design events that will be used to design hydraulic structures in the basins of the West Mediterranean Region. The purpose of the study was to derive regional flood frequency curves that could be of initial usefulness in practical applications. This study should be improved by the other regional frequency methods, and the results of these methods should be compared with the results of this study.

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