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Hardy Source: American Sociological Review, Vol. 54, No. 5 (Oct., 1989), pp. 834-843 Published by: American Sociological Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2117757 . Accessed: 06/08/2013 10:51
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834 of wage and price and/or other labor-market differentials. that "floating proletariat" phenomenonwas sufficiently common that a city's in-migrantswere largely drawnfrom it. employment.32. IN. Or. in-migrants)is twofold. 1850-1860. because the data bases of those studies were constructed by record linkage and could include information only for residents who were present and located during successive enumerations. FloridaState University. the out-migrantsmay have been especially "entrepreneurialin spirit" and among the most successful. One of the more extreme speculations reasoned that the out-migrants may have constituted a sort of "permanent floating proletariat" (Thernstrom1973. Department Tallahassee. city differencesin income. In general. mobilityand persistence were modeledas joint outcomes influencedby a commonset of "unobserved"variables. HARDY Florida State University This study examines the relationship between the processes of occupational mobility and persistence. Blumin 1969. their motivations for leaving. Speculations about the out-migrants-their subsequent occupational successes. what their subsequentcareer records were. persister-basedestimates could paint too American Sociological Review.91 on Tue. if at all.. Vol. estimates based on only the persisters may overstate the amount of mobility experienced by city residentsunless. why they left. characterizations it may well be that. In addition to the compositional side of the question-who the out-migrantswere. If the outmigrants were part of a permanent floating proletariat. the "new urban historians"utilized federal manuscriptcensus schedules and other archival resources as a basis for investigatingoccupationalstatus and career patterns in 19th-centurycities (e. these studies concluded that the adult male populations were marked by considerable flux both geographically and occupationally-although Grusky's(1986) recent reassessment suggests that the 19thcenturyrate of careermobility was only about half as great as today's rate. Alternativespeculationshave argued that out-migrantseither constituted a sort of "permanentfloating proletariat" (and therefore were distinctlyunsuccessfulin termsof occupationaladvancement).or were particularly (and thereforelikely to be among the most successful). 54 (October:834-843) This content downloaded from 186. Beginning in the 1960s. if the out-migrants were unusually and among the most successentrepreneurial ful. and anonymous reviewers for their commentson earlier versions of this paper. Charles Nam. Using manuscript census data from Indianapolis. FL 32306-2011.18. to the flows of intercity (or interregional)migration. of Sociology. The data file was constructedprimarilyfrom the 1850 and 1860 federal manuscriptcensus schedules of Marion County. However. 1989. Thernstrom 1973. relative to 1850 origin status. and so on-it is importantto consider the selection on estimatesof career effects of out-migration mobility among the persisters. I wish to thank Mary Mathisfor her assistancein expandingthe data file and Lawrence Hazelrigg. Aage Sorensen.ESTIMATING SELECTION EFFECTS IN OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY IN A 19TH-CENTURY CITY* MELISSA A. and other labor-marketcharacteristicswere not related in any simple way. then as today. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Knights 1971. As aggressive entrepreneurs an indirecttest of these hypotheses. but that unmeasuredvariables exerted no net effects. I assess the importanceof selection effects on the likelihoodof upward or downwardmobilityand on the socioeconomic status achieved by 1860. p. Griffinand Griffin 1978).g.migrantswere neglected. 42) who mostly drifted from one city to another. Glasco 1978. and so forth-typically conceived of the migration as a sorting process that at least tended to be equilibrating * Direct all correspondenceto Melissa Hardy. The importance of the question of 19thcentury city out-migrants (and. of course. More likely these aremuchtoo broadlypainted. correspondingly. The analysis of Indianapolis data shows that the sorting processes of occupational mobility and nonpersistencewere affected by a similar set of observed characteristics. Conversely.
and changes in the occupational structure increasingly reflected the importance of. But the situationis far from hopeless. There is no direct way of segregating these various categories in the data file. industrial activities in an emerging industrial-commercialcenter. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .91 on Tue. and to cities just beginning to take shape. But that estimate 1850 TO 1860 was based on a life expectancy at birth (37.1 Indianapolis was then making the transitionfrom a small isolated town to a major wholesale and retail commercial center.S. as calculationsfor late-centuryIndianapolissugenumeratedin the manuscriptcensus schedules of gest that 5 to 8 percentof the residentsdid not the Seventh U. but the residual category is not homogeneous. Indiana. who typically exceeded in number the outmigrants during any given interval. 1850 to 1860. Moreover. Dodd. During the 1850s the populationdoubledin size. as the alternative scenarios depicted above indicate. relative to more established east-coast cities such as Thernstrom's Boston or Blumin's Philadelphia. the rate of population growth was greater and the transformationfrom a craft-orientedto an industrial job structure was in an earlier and more rapid stage of development. First. But historical census dataincludedno retrospective information. Nearly 7 of every 10 of the 2. and Indianapoliswas not unique in these respects. a transformation made possible by factors associated with the introductionof the railroad.32.e. Louisville. 835 approximation"of selection effects of outmigration. Talbott. The averagerate for all 68 communities was 62 percent. 102) review of published data from record-linkagestudies of 68 separatecommunities shows that in 40 of the communitiesthe 10-year rate of nonpersistence ranged between 60 and 80 percent. Parkerson's (1982. Census. Louis. Using the Coale-Demeny model life tables. since the basic operation of record linkage is the identification of persisters. Cleveland. how much of that 69 percent was actually due to out-migration?Some reasonable estimates can be constructed.18. adjusting mobility estimates for selection effects should attend to the in-migrant as well as the out-migrantpopulation. The mid-1800s were a time of rapid and profound social change in many American cities. here was aged 16 or older in 1850 (past the high-riskyears of infancy and childhood). of nearly 15 percent. The question is. it was a city in which the channels for both occupational and geographicmobility were considerable (Hardy 1978). However. only the selection effects of out-migrationcan be addressed. as we shall see.. St. a nonpersistencerate of 69 percentmay seem astoundingly high.337 adult males enumerated in Indianapolis in 1850 could not be located in the 1860 enumeration or in the 1862 city directory. percent is surely too high. mortality. It is not. Parkerson estimated a decadal mortalityamong white males. To anyone not acquaintedwith studies of 19th-century cities. shared that same "spirit"and record of success. p. Cincinnati. It includes cases of mortality. Detroit. But Indianapoliswas also a gateway to the great expanse of still unsettledareato the west. out-migrants are defined residually. By 1855 Indianapolis had become the railway hub of eight major lines radiating outward from the nation's first union depot to Chicago. The combined effect of enumerator and (though in fewer than 10 percent of the linked cases). 15 1 The data file consists of the entire adult (i. The majoraim of this paperis to attemptan answerto that question of "selection effects" by analyzing census data for one city. and Parsons' Indianapolis limit of 10 percent. One reason is the paucity of informationavailable in the manuscriptcensus schedules. and data files constructed from record linkages have typically been "forwardlooking". Further.3 Since the base population of interest This analysis can yield at best only a "first years). 60. and no doubt at least a few cases of error in the record-linkageprocess. 1850ESTIMATINGOUT-MIGRATION. record-linkage error can be estimated indi- This content downloaded from 186. Assum1860 enumerationwas by visual inspection of the ing from Barrows' calculations an outside entire set of manuscriptschedules of the Eighth Census. cases of enumerator error. and points beyond. Barrow's (1980) 16+) male populationof Indianapolisin 1850. Indianapolis. it seems likely that at City Directory and Business Mirrorfor 1862 was most only one of every seven cases of used as a supplementalsource for record linkage nonpersistencewas due to mortality.SELECTIONEFFECTSIN OCCUPATIONALMOBILITY pessimistica pictureof careeradvancements especially if the city's in-migrants. Record linkage to the survive to the next decennial count.
001 level for all variables except race.34. This content downloaded from 186.0 69% 73% 64 74 68 77 80 76 65 57 60 58 81 55 46 61 44 72 68 78 The compositionalcomparisons(columns 2 and 3) are signficant at the . Thus. it is reasonable to conclude that no more than 10 percentof the 2. which included a question asking all residents how long they had lived in their current community of residence. While the data source does not afford means by which to segregate or reclassify these latter cases.5 72 28 9 6 8 14 40 8 15 32. 35 to 40 percent were out-migrants. a Persisters (N= 730) 14% 63 23 97 3 6 31 29 21 13 34.24 attributable to enumerationand record-linkageerror.d. ESTIMATINGA PERSISTENCEMODEL As reported in Table 1.O Clerk.18 but . and the remainder (50 to 55 percent) were AMERICANSOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW persisters.34 includes cases of mortalityas well as enumerationand record-linkageerror.M. persisters and nonpersisterssignificantly differ in composition on nearly all available measures. estimates of career mobility based on only the lattercould be seriously biased. as distinguished from the selection effects of undetectedpersisters. sales Petty P. if one or more of these categories of men differed in mobility-related ways from the men who were capturedby the enumeration and record-linkage processes. that inability is not particularlysignificant to the majoraim of this paper-assessing the effect of "sample selection" on estimates of occupationalmobility-since all sources of selection effect are relevant.44 = .4 18. although as many as two-fifths of these persisters were missed by the census takersor by the record-linkage process. Marital: Married Not married Occupation: Professional Major P. Furthermore.7 Compositona Nonpersisters (N= 1607) 17% 52 30 95 5 11 44 24 12 9 30. Since the population of Indianapolis doubled during the 1850s. Parkerson concluded that the record-linkage studies overstated nonpersistence by about two-fifths.3 46 54 5 2 6 5 48 9 25 24. Subtractingthe mortality component (no more than .O Skilled Semiskilled Unskilled Duncans SEI: Mean s.836 rectly with the aid of Parkerson'sstudy of the 1855 New York State Census.91 on Tue. the discrepancywas not . Comparisonsof Persistersand Nonpersistersin 1850 Rate of Nonpersistence Total Nativity: Indiana OtherU.18.9 11.32. Whereas the average rate among the 68 record-linkage studies was 62 percent. Nonper- Table 1.337 adultmales enumerated in 1850 died before the 1860 count.62 . 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . The differences are consistent with findings from other studies of 19th-centurycities.9 11.M.S. It limits what can be said specifically about the selection effects of out-migration.d. among communities that experienced rapid growth. But this figure of . this larger figure will be adopted as a maximum estimate of the extent to which nonpersistence was overstatedin the record-linkagestudy of Indianapolis.0 22. Foreign Race: White Nonwhite Age: 16-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Mean s. But whether out-migrantor undetected persister. it was 44 percent among the New York communities.10) leaves an estimate of at least .
I examine the probabilityof upward or downward mobility across the seven catego2 This difference between petty and major ries previously nominated.66 . and of lower status.69 ..91 on Tue. followed by rapid diminution of rate.66 . some notable occupationaldifferences remain.70 . 1850 to 1860. and officials was a comparativelylow 57 percent. (The small up-tick in nonpersistenceamong the Indianapolis men aged 50 and older is most likely a manifestation of the mortality component of the nonpersister category. First. especially the unskilled.Whetheryoung or old. 54 percentof the skilled and 46 percentof the semiskilled and unskilled men.64 Blue-Collar Unmarried .67 Total .83 . 84 percent of the major proprietors. foreign-born (predominantly German and Irish). married white-collar men aged 30 or older would have been among the most visible to enumerators. had the highest rates. managers.46 . This model provides the means of assessing selection effects of nonpersistence on the probability of career mobility. single unskilledmen were undoubtedly among the most "invisible" to census takers. white-collar men to move on to anothercity. Maritalcomposition is partly confounding of those differences: for example. and White-Collar versus Blue-Collar Occupation White-Collar Age 16-29 30+ All ages Married .79 . althoughthe rate among single skilled workers was about as high. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . assuming ordinalproprietors. proprietors This content downloaded from 186.73 sisters were more likely to be unmarried. blue-collar workers were more likely than older. and 43 percent of them were nonpersisters. single. Blue-collar men in general were more likely to have out-migratedor to have been overlooked by enumerators. Rates of Nonpersistence (cell values) by Age. younger. Of course.47 .even after taking into account the effects of marital status and foreign nativity. Results from probit estimationsreportedin Table 3 confirm that marital status is a significant and strong net predictorof persistence.84 .2 The age gradient of nonpersistence rates (column 1. and officials is partly ity among them. is measuredin two ways.59 . which contrasts with only 36 percent of the clerks and salesmen. SELECTIONEFFECTSIN OCCUPATIONALMOBILITY Careermobility.61 . unmarried blue-collar men disappearedin droves. using Thernstrom's typology. our estimatedoverall rate of out-migration (35 to 40 percent) probablymeans that at least half of the single blue-collar men were out-migrants. the rate for petty (but not major) proprietors. but it is also highly probable that a great many of these men had actually left Indianapolis.32. Blue-collar men. After all. men in occupational categories that included property ownership had the lowest rates of nonpersistence. followed by the professionals and then the clerks and salesmen. and officials. Marital Status. even after marital status is controlled. managers. as are foreign nativity and white-collar status. it was not age so much as maritalstatus that discriminated the persisters from the nonpersisters.g. as the nonpersistencerates (cell values) in Table 2 show. Since there is good reason to believe that young. Table 1) approximates the age gradient of rates of internal migration reportedin present-daystudies (e.43 . However. In general.43 Unmarried . and 74 percent of their "smaller" counterparts. Because of the floor and compositional:a larger proportionof the "petty" ceiling effects inherent in this definition of than of the "major" category consisted of mobility (see footnote 5). I also examine the distributionof status distances between 1850 as opposed to managersand officials. were married.) However. managers.18. Unskilled laborers had the highest rates of nonpersistence regardless of marital status.SELECTIONEFFECTSIN OCCUPATIONALMOBILITY 837 Table 2.51 Married . And while the occupation-specific rates of nonpersistence among single men were generallyin excess of 70 percent. Long and Boertlein 1976)-a high rate among those in their late teens and 20s. married.83 Total .
51 (.09) 1. net of the influence of specified as are any of the five-city ratings"(1982. 122) also estimated a correlation follows the same logic. the accuracy of the nominal 3The use of scales such as Duncan's SEI with attributionmay be doubted." With such the use of 20th-century SET scores carries some questions we simply face the limits of the data.52 (.13) 5. saddler.94 .13) 1. independentvariables.3 silversmith. following occupational titles: carpenter. 5. more than 85 percent of the U. shoemaker. I estimate a series of two-equation probit models.O Clerks. millwright.O This content downloaded from 186. blacksmith.29 -.008 Duncan SEI by enumerators (see Conk 1978).population. Other titles included gunsmith.14) 2.06 (. 30 years and older. 120) had previously reporteda correla.02 -. Blau and Duncan bility of being excluded from the persister (1967. plasterer.179 however.07) -7. cases I coded as "skilled workers"consisted of the unskilled. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .18) 2. Estimatingthe SES models Hauser (1982. conditional on membershipin the risk Petty P. foundryman. as did the amount (and no doubt the standardization of quality) of informationsolicited .baker.07) -6. 118).22 (. In any numberof the cases.17 -.18. Rho provides an estimate of the twentieth century is about as good an indicatorof correlation between the probabilities of mobility true occupational status in the nineteenth century and persistence. 92-93).838 Table 3. carriage or and 1860 occupationsby relying on Hauser's wagonmaker. pp.02 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW To allow for correlationof the processes of occupational mobility and persistence. The two-equation model allows joint estimation of both selection and mobility equations without enforcing the assumption of zero correlation between unmeasurable factors that might have been influencing the likelihood of both persistence and mobility. painter. harnessmaker. sales tion of .-born. that is based on unmeasuredcharacteristics he concludes that "true occupational status in the to persistence..47 (.09) -5.91 . p. The present (. Hauser's analysis argued that.S.41 (. The first equation specifies the mobility process by assessing the impact of workers' occupational location and demographic characteristicson the likelihood of upward (or downward) mobility relative to occupational stability.12 (.been an exaggeration of the respondent's "real" chies.38 . The classification scheme used in the Semiskilled Bureau'stabulationsdid change a numberof times after 1870. The second equation specifies the selection process thatdefined the group of workers whose occupationalmobility was assessed.002) study is based not on the Bureau's tabulateddata.07) -2.91 on Tue.07) -.14) 3. use of alternative scales developed by historians on the basis of in-depth analyses of mobility equation by including a latent variable related specific urbansites also raises the questionof bias. index. and jeweler.88 between occupationalstatus in the mid-19th hazard rate that capturesthe instantaneousprobacentury and prestige in 1925.32.51 (. of course. ProbitEstimationof Persistence Model Eq I Constanta . and printer. even though skill status of "carpenter'sassistant.4 Foreign-born Not married Age: 16-29 Professional MajorP. tailor or mapping of occupationaltitles into Duncan's hatter.93 between 1925 and 1963 prestige rankings.1.20 -. for age. using lambda to denote a of . p. William Form has noted in a personal communicationthat he "found a gross overestimation of skilled workers in the pre-1900 censuses Skilled and almost no way to be certain whether many occupations were 'semiskilled' " (see Form 1985.1080 Log-likelihood specific occupational titles there recorded by 1894 1941 N enumerators. A selfof "carpenter. for occupation.M.78 .40 -.M.39 .07) -7.Following Thernstrom's(1973) clasa The reference category for foreign-born is all sification scheme. p.. but on the manuscriptschedules and the .17 (."for instance. may have historical data has been criticized for alleged attribution insensitivity to long-termchanges in status hierar.12 -. 4 This technique expands specification of the bias.69 (.16 (.07 (. bookbinder.49 (.1107 .08) -2.46 (. brickmason.07) .58 .66 Eq 2 .
while the relativeprobabilityof careerdecline was about half that large.18 -1260 . For downward mobility the unskilled and semiskilled categories were collapsed into a reference category. Thus.57 .17) -. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . white men (95 percent of the 1850 total) were more likely upwardly mobile. 5 Since none of the men in the top two occupationalcategories was upwardlymobile (for professionalsthis was by definition.91 (.07 (. a Z-value of -1.20 2 .33) 4.78 (.but four specific findings can be noted.SELECTIONEFFECTSIN OCCUPATIONALMOBILITY Table 4. First.38 .80 4 .3.O Skilled Semiskilled Unskilled Race: White Foreign-born Age: 16-29 30-49 Log-likelihood Rho Probit estimationsof models predictingthe probabilityof upwardand downwardmobility are reportedin Tables 4 and 5. These results are straightforward.53 . at .61 (.63 (.31 (associated with a Z-value of -.35) 2.23) -9.. Also.95 (.08) 12.30) 1.15 (.32) 4.49 (.10 (.99 .73 (.10 1.06) -24.68) -4.18.e.50 (. and officials it was probably an effect of career tracking and therefore virtuallydefinitional).46 with selection 5 -2.21) -7. with and without Selection without selection 1 Constant -. initial specification of the models included marital status.58 (.31) 5.61 (.08 1. respectively.95 (.34 -.79 1.the top threecategorieswere collapsed into one reference category.00 (.21 1.32. foreign nativity predicted persistence but not mobility.41) 2.28) 5.35 (. whereasmaritalstatuswas a strong This content downloaded from 186.58 (. equations 1-3 describe models pool.34) 1.23 . Equation 2 assesses the probabilityof upward or downward mobility for specific occupationalcategories.40) 2.30) 2.27) 6.M.1.79 (. ProbitEstimationof UpwardMobility.1.99 (.97 1.33 -.69 . without adjustment for selection effects.83 .36 1.63 1.80 1.53 1.63 1.23) 4.06) -8.47 (.84 3 .35) 4.37 (.30) 5.01).15 1.88 . net of other factors.47 (.58 (.91 .01 (. on average the relative probability of career advancement was .78 (.1285 . although race was not a significant predictor of persistence.24) 4.97 1.16) -.managers.49). but it proved to be excessively collinear with other variables (especially age) and was thereforedeleted.5 In each table.46 (.47 (. Third.26) 1.25) 3.28) 5. Second.27) 5. for the major proprietors.15 (.53) -5.94 (.69 .1253 .25) 6.00 Petty P.40) .58 (. showing the probabilityof mobility (upwardor downward) relative to immobility.99 (.28) 5.25) 3.09 (.79 (.08 1.91 on Tue.29) 5.31 6 839 -3. net of specified factors.16 (i. the coefficient of lambda estimates the association of the two processes. Equation 1 fits only a constant. equation 3 adds demographicvariables to the model.55 -300 -264 -256 .
22 (.36) 1. This content downloaded from 186. with and without Selection without selection 1 Constant -1.83 (.25 1.33) 2.39) 2.01 (.12 (.39 (.65 (. If.35 (. "entrepreneurial spirit").44) -5.91 on Tue.10 1.34) 2.38 with selection 5 -2.rho should be positive in contrastbetween young and middle-aged workers the case of upward mobility and negative in (a combined reference group) and older workers was maintainedto see whetherold age (relative to the case of downward mobility.14 (. however.43) 1. however.3..40) 2.840 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW Table 5.68 (.18) .64 (.42 .00 .62 -989 .36) 1. the twoequationestimationsshould show this interrelatedness as a negative correlation (rho) between the errorterms of the persistenceand 6 Because downwardmobility was less frequent mobility equations.26 3 .M.62 1.83 (. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Fourth.10 .36) 4.42 (.33) 4.46) 1..50 1.40) 1.39) 3.32) 5.65 (.45 (.30 (.68 -.65 -.20) -.26 .1.6 Such conclusions are hardly novel (cf.41) 1.46 6 .14 -170 -152 -150 -1006 .09 .13) -4.g.79 (.14 Professional MajorP.45) -2.87 (.21 (.58 (.32.46 .29) 1.71 -. If the outmigrants.M.95 -992 . younger men (16-29) were more likely upwardly mobile.07 . it was not possible to persisters who possess traits conducive to discriminate among the three age-groups.70 .52 . the previously cited studies).. for example.1.44 (.14 4 -.43 (.27) -1..79 1.49) 1.09 (. it did not have separatelyestimable net effects on mobility. sales Petty P.68 .1.37 (.were characterized by some unmeasured personality traits associated with career advancement (e.85 .34) 3.50 (.O Skilled Race: White Foreign-born Age: 50 + Log-likelihood Rho predictor of persistence.36) 1.25 (..37 1.41 (.26) -1. ProbitEstimationof DownwardMobility.24) . The question of centralinterest.18. it is the than upward mobility.46 . turnson the characteristics or dispositions of workers that could not be specified in either the persistence or the mobility equations and whether unmeasured traits that increased the probability of persistence also increased (or decreased) the probability of career mobility.53) -.40) 3.52) -. net of other factors.30) 1. and perhaps as well those overlooked by enumerators.40 (.23 (.05 (. The careeradvancement.35) 3.56) .14 (.41) 2.99 (.38 (.46 (.24 2 -1.51 (.71 1. while age had no net effects in the model of persistence.O Clerks.96 .08) -13.46 -.02 1.27) -6.42 (.34 1. Equation 4 the age structureof the time) increaseda worker's assesses the impact of unmeasured factors that increase the likelihood of persistence on vulnerabilityto downwardmobility.
18 -1.45) 1.04) 20.03) 27.93 (3.19 5. OLS Estimationof Duncan's Index with and without Selection without selection 1 Constant 11.16 (3. Since collapsing all nondiagonal elements of the mobility table into two categories (upward or downward mobility) neglects informationon within-categorydifferences.47 .17 (3. which were distinct from the effects of occupationaland demographiccharacteristics in predicting persistence. more likely to remain in Indianapolis during this 10-year period. the value of rho is no longer significantly different from zero. Average improvementin job status was 3.77 (.72 . was very small (only .68) 1. I also estimated models using Duncan's index to assess selection effects on the status distance traversedthrough upward or downward mobility.58 1 3.00 (1. that is.89 (6. Moreover.65 -1.04) 21.70 (1.72 with selection 2 -2.68 2 4.07 (4.18 -1.82 (.58 .81 5.04 (1.18.03) .09).88 .19 (1. that is.76) 2. if we think of career mobility as a process that selects workers with characteristicsfavorable to job performanceor productivity.62) -. but the distributional characteristicsof the distance measure suggest incremental rather than dramatic changes in job statusfor workers. but that these factors.SELECTIONEFFECTSIN OCCUPATIONALMOBILITY the probabilityof careermobility. The positive lambdacoefficient in equation3 indicates that unmeasured worker characteristics that increased the probability of persistence also predict a gain in status during the 10-year period.64 .13 .04 (1. As a result.78 (. or mortality. enumerator error.12) 9. the probabilityof careeradvancement.8 points.48 .58 .78) . for both upward and downwardmobility. Equations 5 and 6 successively introduce the occupational categories and the demographic variables.91 on Tue.58 Duncan 1850 Race Foreign-born Older lambda R2 This content downloaded from 186.32. However.50 8. In sum. the estimate is significant Table 6.43) -1.03) 25.80 (.46) -.62 .61) -.we can question whetherworkerspossessing these traitswere.73) 2. What's more. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . The results for downward mobility correspond: unmeasured traits that decreased the risk of nonpersistencewere associated with a lower risk of downwardmobility. Results of this analysis (Table 6) correspond to those of Table 5. For upward mobility the value of rho is large. or more likely to have been lost to outmigration. were mediated through (or at least correlated with) origin occupation and demographictraits in predicting mobility. the estimate for the constant is a larger negative number than in equation 1. unmeasured factors associated with career advancement also increased the probabilityof persistence. net of unmeasuredfactors related to persistence. on the whole. the parameterestimates of equations 5 and 6 are virtually identical to those of equations 2 and 3. the positive value is consistent with the predominanceof upward over downward mobility.71 8. The evidence favors the persisters.1. on average..13 (3. and clearly significant. showing 841 that unmeasuredfactors related to persistence were positively related to the likelihood of upward mobility and negatively related to downward mobility. positive.20 (3.54) 1.
18. there seems to have been nothing distinctive about the nonpersisters that entailed for them a competitive disadvantage in chances of career mobility. It is almost impossible to track out-migrantsof l9th-century cities. It would also be useful to replicate the present analysis with data from one or more 19th-centurycities differing from Indianapolis in size. Nonrandom explicit selection. because of compositional differences between persisters and nonpersisters on traits relevant to the career-mobility process. results of the present study leave little room for doubtingthe mobility estimates on grounds of selectivity bias. However. unmarried. always full. the question of interest is whether the processes operatedby the same or by different criteria. Thernstrom's hypothesis of a "permanent floating proletariat" implies the processes were regulated by different criteria: less skilled workers who had little chance of advancementwandered from place to place.05 level).. the 1860 SES of white workers averaged 8 points higher than that of black workers.32. HARDY is Associate Professor of Sociology and ResearchAssociate with the This content downloaded from 186. 127-29) general description of "class"-"a hotel or an omnibus. The general theoretical point is simple.842 only by a one-tailedtest (. and stage of economic development in order to determine whether the results reportedhere are generalizable. That the nonpersisters were numerous and usually young.7 the coefficient for lambda is further reducedin size and precision. Selectivity on an identifiable factor does not in itself necessarily entail bias in subpopulation estimates. In short. Both career mobility and nonpersistence (out-migration as well as enumerator error and mortality) are selection processes. Indeed. it seems likely that the out-migrants. as in this study. and of lower status is indisputable.At least the present study gives reason to doubt it. the pessimism of Thernstrom's speculation aboutthe prospectsof migratingworkersmay not have been warranted. The results gave no indication of net effects of any unmeasured traits. age. and once the additional variables are specified (i. regionally based contingent of mostly permanentdrifters. and subsequently experienced career trajectoriesthat. buttressedby evidence of high rates of blue-collar nonpersistence. studies based only on persistersyield biased estimates of mobility. But the models estimatedhere allowed for mobility effects of unmeasured as well as measured traits. But taken as a whole they fit Schumpeter's "omnibus" depiction no less than did the working-class persisters of Indianapolis. The latter point is speculative.91 on Tue. the nature of the selection process must be considered. Once the likelihood of mobility was conditioned on demographic traits. mirroredthose of their counterpartswho remained in Indianapolis.e. Net of origin status. in a futile searchfor betteropportunities. pp. race).This thesis. Since nonpersisterstended to be younger and of lower status-traits associated with career advancement-support for the hypothesis of a permanentfloating proletariat would have to come from characteristicsof persistence that were not included either in Thernstrom'sdata or in mine. on the whole. the two-equation estimates converged with the single-equation estimates. AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW Schumpeter's (1955. it is difficult to predict the correlation between disturbances of the selection equation and those of the "primary"equation-unless one can identify factors that have been omitted from both equations and that are orthogonal to the specified regressands(Berk 1983). and the error correlation across equationsconverged to zero. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . but always of different people"-this was partly because of the existence of a large. rather than being permanent membersof a floating proletariat(or lumpenproletariat). probablyto the west. of course. In other words. However. But when selectivity is incidental. the selection processes of persistence and mobility were modeled as joint outcomes produced partly by common unmeasured variables. but relevant evidence could be gained indirectly by comparinga city's in-migrantsto its nonpersisters in terms of demographiccomposition and to the persistersin terms of mobility. leads to biased and inconsistent regression estimates. seems to suggest that whereas a city's working class fit 7Equation 4 provides further support for the race effect detected in Table 5. as in exclusion of observations because of a thresholdon the dependent variable.settled elsewhere. MELISSAA. DISCUSSION Researchershave speculated that.
Larry H." History 9:111-30. Grusky. Natives in and Newcomers:The Orderingof Opportunity Mid-Nineteenth Century Poughkeepsie. Government Printing Office. 353.Donald H. and questions of equity. no. 1985. 1978. "Migrationand Adjustment in the Nineteenth-Century City. Cambridge:HarvardUniversity Press. and Celia G. New York: Oxford University Press. "AmericanSocial Mobility in the 19th and 20th Centuries. Series P-20." Current Population Reports. Stuart.S. Robert M. "An Introduction to Sample Selection Bias in Sociological Data. "OccupationalClassification in the United States Census: 1870-1940. Knights.165-208 in NineCities.DC: U. Princeton: Princeton University Press.the changing structuresof opportunityand constraint faced by older workers. New Haven: Yale University Press.. David B." Pp. Peter R. Hauser."Pp. edited by Tamara K. Series P-23. and WarrenN. Divided WeStand: WorkingClass Stratification in America. 1982. 1971.SELECTIONEFFECTSIN OCCUPATIONALMOBILITY Instituteon Aging at FloridaState University. 64. Washington. 6 Aug 2013 10:51:37 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Laurence. 1978.RobertG. "How Mobile Were Nineteenth-Century Americans?" Historical Methods 15:99-109. Christopher Winship. Blumin. "OccupationalMobility and Nativity-Ethnicity in Indianapolis. New York: Wiley. 1967. "Mobility and Change in Ante-BellumPhiladelphia. "The Age Pattern of Employment.91 on Tue. 1955.32. Margo." American Journal of Sociology 90:326-58. "The Geographical Mobility of Americans. Melissa A.Joseph. "OccupationalStatus in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Hareven and Maris Vinovskis. This content downloaded from 186. The Plain People of Boston. no. Imperialismand Social Classes. University of Wisconsin. she continues her researchon retirement. 185060. 1984. New York: Meridian. 1976. 1982. edited by StephanThernteenth-Century strom and Richard Sennett. The American Occupational Structure. Parkerson. 1969. Mare. intergenerational REFERENCES Barrows. Clyde and Sally Griffin." Current Population Reports. Conk. The Other Bostonians.William. 1980." Historical Methods 15:111-26.18. 1980. Berk. DC: U.S. 1986. "Geographical Mobility: March 1975 to March 1979. 1830-1860. Schumpeter. In addition to expanding her study of historical patterns of occupational mobility. U. 1978. patterns of individualdecision making. Thernstrom." Social Forces 57:205-21. Richard A. Urbana and Chicago: University of Illinois Press. 1983. Robert D. 123-75 in Population in Nineteenth-Century America. 1978." AmericanSociological Review 48:386-98. "Hurryin'Hoosiers and the American 'Pattern':GeographicMobility in Indianapolisand UrbanNorth America. Madison: Center for Demography and Ecology. Journal of Interdisciplinary Form. GovernmentPrinting Office. Stephan." Social Science History 5:197-222. Bureau of Census. Blau. Boertlein. 1973. Glasco.S. Cambridge:HarvardUniversity Press. 843 Griffin. Peter and Otis Dudley Duncan." CDE Working Paper 86-28. Hardy. Washington. Long. Kubitschek.
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