American Economic Association

Review Article: The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life. by Richard J. Herrnstein; Charles Murray Review by: Arthur S. Goldberger and Charles F. Manski Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Jun., 1995), pp. 762-776 Published by: American Economic Association Stable URL: . Accessed: 06/08/2013 10:43
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The story begins in an exploratory. and hence stratification would become increasingly rigid.32. and is becoming increasingly unVER The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Strucin American By RICHARD J. Arthur Jensen (1969) kicked off the Great IQ Debate. Steven Durlauf.91 on Tue. Kamin. 762 ture This content downloaded from 186. Jacqueline Macaulay.Journal of Economic Literature Vol. GOLDBERGER and CHARLES F. For the university system "became radically more efficient at sorting the brightest of the bright into a handful of elite colleges" (p. often anecdotal. 4 O equally distributed." that people have always been sorted by talent as well as by social class. 38). HERRNSTEIN AND CHARLES MURRAY. A. According to HM. plays a critical role in socioeconomic achievement and social pathology. and Alexandra Minicozzi for their comments. terms which HM use interchangeably through most of the book. ISBN 0-02914673. 845 pp. entitled "The Emergence of a Cognitive Elite. Even more significant than the cognitive sorting between college and noncollege groups is the cognitive sorting within the college population. 33). But in Chapter 1. $30. arguing that intelligence is a highly heritable trait. Murray (1984) argued that the War on Poverty was failing because the poor. New York: Free Press.18. Life. 1994. and that the high heritability of IQ could account for the failures of compensatory education programs. MANSKI University of Wisconsin-Madison We are grateful to Glen Cain. that differences in intelligence across races are quite possibly genetic. a trend which compensatory interventions cannot halt. 762-776 Review Article: Herrnstein The and Bell Curve Murray b By ARTHUR S. Ten years ago. 25). Sorting The Bell Curve begins with an introductory chapter on the nature and measurement of intelligence or IQ or cognitive ability. 1. The enormous increase in college enrollment in the United States ordinarily would be thought of as decreasing rather than increasing stratification. Leon J. XXXIII(June 1995). responding to the incentives generated by government programs. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Herrnstein (1971) added to the analysis by asserting that success in equalizing opportunity would make socioeconomic achievement increasingly dependent on genetic factors. HM assert that "At the same time that many more young people were going to college. This leads to an increasingly stratified society. Following this introduction. Robert Hauser. but now we approach a world "in which cognitive ability is the decisive dividing force" (p. mode. a long and complex four-part book by the psychologist Herrnstein and the political scientist Murray (henceforth HM). they were also being selected ever more efficiently by cognitive ability" (p. intelligence is a highly heritable trait. These several themes have now merged to produce The Bell Curve. were reducing their work effort and increasing their dependency. pp.00. HM proclaim in Part I. Introduction 25 YEARS AGO.

. engineers. which closes Part I. Consider the dozen occupations that make up HM's set of "high-IQ professions" (pp. What then is this residual. as all employers cannot simultaneously pick applicants with the highest IQs. .) And so Chapter 2 concludes that occupational choice reinforces cognitive stratification. 97) For HM." The unreliability correction arises because both the tests and the performance measures are subject to random measurement error.32. It could be associatedwith different industries or different firms . 113). to carry further their argument that cognitive stratification is increasing. increasing inequality is an irremediable consequence of a permanent shift in the intellectual requirements of jobs: Cognitivepartitioning througheducationand occupationswill continue. lawyers.18. these professionsalong with senior management-must by now be absorbing most of the high-IQ population. and social scientists. this "overall correlation" is not an average of the correlations reported in different studies.(p. 54-55): accountants. architects. (This is necessarily speculation because they present no time-series data on the association between occupation and IQ. Or it could be cognitive ability . 24). they cite a study by Robert Mare (1991) which in fact says that "educational homogamy increased from 1940 to 1970 and may have stabilized or decreased somewhat in the 1980s" (Mare 1991. HM are intrigued by the increasing inequality in the American wage distribution. the value of intelligencein the marketplaceis rising. HM argue that cognitive stratification in the labor market makes good economic sense because cognitive ability is a good predictor of job performance. Economicswill be the mainreason . they offer a calculation about the offspring of a hypothetical marriage between an average Harvard man and an average Radcliffe woman. we believe that it includescognitiveability. HM see increasing stratification 763 due to increasing assortative mating by cognitive ability: "Intermarriageamong people in the top few percentiles of intelligence may be increasing far more rapidly than suspected" (p. As qualitative evidence. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 64) Readers of this Journalwill recognize a potential fallacy of composition in moving from the first claim to the second one. college teachers. This content downloaded from 186. As quantitative evidence. computer scientists. 72).4" (p. An econwith omy that lets employerspick applicants the highest IQs is a significantly more efficient economy. Further. HM speculate that. After digressing in Chapter 3 to discuss the relationship of IQ and job performance. . Reviewing the literature on the association between measures of intelligence and job productivity. averaged over many tests and many jobs. . Along with many scholars. Indeed: mostof the increasing wage inequality during the past two and a half decades is due to changesin the demandfor the residualcharacteristics of workers rather thanto changesin the demandfor educationor experience. B. this X factor. .91 on Tue.Goldberger and Manski: The Bell Curve The sorting continues as people enter occupations. that increasingly commands a wage premium over and above education?. It could be rooted in diligence. IQ and Job Performance In Chapter 3. see John Hartigan and Alexandra Wigdor (1989.or sociability. dentists. is about 0. mathematicians. 117-71). . .(p. physicians. and there is not muchthatthe government or anyoneelse can do aboutit. The two key claims are: an employerthat is free to pick amongapplicants can realize large economicgains from hiring those with the highest IQs. they conclude that "the overall correlation. . pp. .1 They argue that this correlation has significant economic implications. .(p. natural scientists. having grown so rapidlyin recent years. chemists. ambition. but rather reflects upward adjustments for unreliability and "restriction of range. p. HM are aware of this but nonetheless speculate that the macro1 Actually. 91) They do not entertain the possibility that advanced technology may simplify tasks and so increase the demand for unskilled labor. HM use Chapter 4. For discussion. The "restriction-of-range" correction (a version of the selection bias correction familiar to economists) arises because job performance measures are available only for those who were hired. and an anecdote about a hypothetical elite New York law firm.

Heritability is not a measure of parentchild resemblance in IQ. . Every child in this imaginary America experiences the same environmental effects. Imagine that an individual's observed IQ test score Y is the sum of her "genotype" Z and her "environment" U. etc. . it may be at odds with HM's assertion that high IQ employees are paid a wage premium in the labor market. it is based on the "overall correlation"of 0. Whenheritability rises. and siblings increasingly resemble each other. How much would predictions of job performance be improved if employers were to add IQ scores to the job-specific test scores and other information that employers are allowed to use under Griggs? HM offer no empirical evidence on this central question. They are not relevant to assessment of the actual decision in Griggs. Instead. the genetic component of IQ is unlikely to be smaller than 40 percent or higher than 80 percent .means that IQ is about40 percent a matterof environment. in the form of stepwise regression findings. for good or ill. C." asking us to imagine "a United States that has magically made good on the contemporary ideal of equality. Their story is tainted by two misconceptions... Furthermore.heritability rises. Supreme Court decision in Griggs v. family membersbecome more similarto each other and more different from people in other families. And within that pool.The balance of the evidence suggests that 60 percentmayerr on the low side. on pages 75-76 they present evidence. economic benefits of using IQ tests to select among job applicants could be huge "if testing tended to place the smartest people in the jobs where the test-job correlations are large. hold interviews.18. As for the first claim." In practice. The heritability of an observable characteristic is the proportion of its variance that is associated with variance in genetic factors. on the reverse question: How much would predictions of job performance be improved if employers using IQ scores to predict job performance were to add job-specific test scores and other information as predictors? These findings would be relevant if the Supreme Court had allowed the use of IQ scores in This content downloaded from 186. Their answer is that 60 percent of the current IQ variance would remain. consider past experience. but rather from those who apply. so Y = Z + U. the spread of the productivity distributions is broad. administer skills tests. which prohibited American employers from using hiring criteria that produce disparate outcomes but do not have a "manifest relationship to the employment in question. At best. are not selecting randomly with respect to applicant ability. which.764 Journal of Economic Literature. (p. 106) They proceed to refer to "the limits that heritability puts on the ability to manipulate intelligence. Genes Near the end of Chapter 4. XXXIII (June 1995) screening job applicants but prohibited the use of job-specific information. (p.4 between measures of intelligence and job productivity. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . on his or her intelligence.S. as environments become moreuniform. this correlation (or rather the corresponding coefficient in a regression of productivity on test score) tells a prospective employer hiring at random from the labor force what gain in output to expect if he were instead to hire by test score. by extension. How much intellectual variation would remain?" (p. children resemble their parents more. and the proportions hired are small" (p. this has inhibited employers from using IQ tests to screen job applicants but has allowed them to use tests of job-specific skills. HM are critical of the 1971 U. Vol. nor is it a biological parameter that sets limits on the effectiveness of policy. Duke Power Co. employers who seek references. 109). But surely employers are not now hiring randomly from the labor force.91 on Tue.32. . HM raise the question "How much is IQ a matter of genes?" and proceed to answer it: In fact IQ is substantially heritable . we will adopt a middlingestimateof 60 percent heritability. 86). For purposesof this discussion. the absolute levels of output value are high. Imagine that Z and U are uncorrelated. 105) They go on to assert that As a general rule. in general. They do not flesh out this brief verbal argument.

where h2 =V(Z)/V(Y) defines heritability. the relatives' correlation on IQ is a weighted average of their genotypic correlation and their environmental correlation. Here they state To raise the chances of getting a college degree. Similarly. or statistical abstractions. this intervention would reduce IQ variance to ({G. are working steadily. John Conlisk (1974) gave a thorough critique of Herrnstein's (1971) proposition that equalizing opportunity necessarily increases stratification. and also with h2= 0.U2). So with h2= 0. But their analyses soon degenerate into the calling of horse races-discovering whether IQ or SES is "more important" as a determinant of social behaviors. 167). it helps to be in the upper half of the distribution for either IQ or socioeconomic status. or animal breeder.91 on Tue. 765 2. Observing statistical associations between various social behaviors in 1990 and IQ measured in 1980." and offer this figurative advice to unborn children: "If a white child of the next generation could be given a choice between being disadvantaged in socioeconomic status or disadvantaged in intelligence.Z2) + e2 corr(U1. they are latent variables. and parents transmit environment as well as genes to the child: corr(U1. does that mean that policies are ineffective? HM's thought experiment called for equalizing environments. conditioning on) measured parental socioeconomic status (SES). Suppose instead that we preserve V(U) at it current value. Such use seems to be an affectation of some social scientists.2 h e) = V(Y)(h . making V(U) = 0. the message If heritability is high." HM conclude that "Cognitive ability is more important than parental SES in determining poverty.18. for that minority of men who are either out of the labor force or unemployed. However.4 to 0. we learn that "Low cognitive ability is a much stronger predisposing factor for illegitimacy than low socioeconomic background" (p. Subsequent chapters analyze other outcomes.e)2.. Cognitive Ability or Socioeconomic Status: Which Is "More Important"? Part II of The Bell Curve presents a series of empirical analyses of data on non-Latino white respondents to the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). no geneticist. But the advantage of a high IQ outweighs that of high status. it turns out that for paired relatives denoted persons 1 and 2. we can write h2 + e2 = 1. and e2 =V(U)/V(Y)is its complement.Goldberger and Manski: The Bell Curve so the variance of Y equals the variance of Z plus the variance of U: V(Y) = V(Z) + V(U). The genotypic correlation for parent and child is about 0. 135). They lead off in Chapter 5 by examining the probability of being in poverty. uses heritability to set limits on the elCfectiveness of environmental change. the disadvantage of a low IQ outweighs that of low status. Dividing through by V(Y).Y2) = h2 corr(Z1.e. 15556) In Chapter 8. Neither "genotype"nor "environment"are observed. (p. such calculations are fatuous. Clearly heritability does not measure parent-child resemblance in IQ.U2) is not zero.5. Of course. See Goldberger (1979). As far as we know. whatever their intelligence. In this classical biometric model. the genotype is a scalar index of the individual's genome or genetic constitution. Chapter 6 examines the determination of schooling.5 is consistent with h2= 1. What does heritability say about resemblance of relatives? With a few more assumptions.74)2 = 2 percent of its current value V(Y). but make U perfectly negatively correlated with Z by introducing an extreme compensatory policy. Using a somewhat more substantial model. 143) Chapter 7 examines the determination of labor supply. there is no question about the right choice" (p.4. This content downloaded from 186. HM initially ask whether these associations hold up after controlling for (i. The environment U is just the residual defined by U Y Z.32. In the key section titled "Socioeconomic Background versus Cognitive Ability. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . (pp. Here they assert Most men.6 and e2 = 0. corr(Y1. Then IQ variance would fall from V(Y)(h2 + e2) to V(Y)(h2+ e2. That is. the primary risk factor seems to be neither socioeconomic background nor education but low cognitive ability. The fact that observed parent-child IQ correlations run about 0. In Chapter 9.

T. which was administered in 1980 to virtually all NLSY respondents. and was still married to her first husband. none of these reasons has any force. on parenting. Y = 1 if a respondent scored "Yes" on the Middle Class Values index and Y = 0 otherwise.3 In each chapter.. As for chains of causation. holding the others fixed. they write that "the role of education versus IQ as calculated by a regression equation is tricky to interpret. but say little about them in the text. Discontinuous and interactive effects are routinely captured through the use of flexible functional forms and. on civility and citizenship. Y = 1 if a woman's first child was born out of wedlock and Y = 0 otherwise.The date of taking the first test appears as an explanatory variable. Christopher Jencks et al. Manski and David Wise 1983). on NLSY data." without citing any. education may have a discontinuous effect on outcomes. In Chapter 11. and other attributes (e.766 Journal of Economic Literature. education and IQ may be collinear. they find that the probability of scoring "Yes"on their "Middle Class Values" index rises with both socioeconomic status and IQ. They refer to these logistic regressions as their "basic analysis. 590-92). is that "Socioeconomic background and IQ are both important in determining whether white women become chronic welfare recipients" (p.g. HM report those results in Appendix 4. They calculate that each year of schooling increases the later IQ score by about one point.' A man in the NLSY got a 'Yes' if by 1990 he had obtained a high school degree (or more). some sort of early IQ score is available in school records. had never given birth to a baby out of wedlock. never been interviewed in jail. and education and IQ may have an interactive effect on outcomes. Y=1 if a respondent's family was below the poverty line in 1989 and Y = 0 otherwise. of a series of logit models for conditional probabilities. more generally. the possibility that education may be partly determined by IQ and SES does not preclude the possibility that. had never been interviewed in jail. 265). Y is a binary outcome of interest. it is that "A white mother's IQ is more important than her socioeconomic background in predicting the worst home environments" (p. XXXIII (June 1995) part caused by IQ and by SES. 222). Correlation among explanatory variables does not affect the interpretation of regression coefficients as descriptions of how mean outcomes vary with each regressor. of the form Prob(Y = llIQ.' " The IQ variable is a normalized transformation of the respondent's score on the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT). Vol. In Chapter 12.2 A. which they say "is in line with other analyses. for some 1." Many analysts have reported estimates of models relating behavior to measured IQ. A woman in the NLSY got a 'Yes' if by 1990 she had obtained a high school degree. Their main concession to the possible role of education as an intermediate step in the determination of adult outcomes is to rerun the logistic regressions separately for the subsamples of those whose education ended with a high school diploma and those whose education ended with a bachelor's degree. In Chapter 10. for example. In Chapter 12. after controlling for IQ and SES. it is that "On two diverse measures of crime. In Appendix 4 (pp. In Chapter 8. This content downloaded from 186. and was still married to his first wife. People who failed any one of the conditions were scored 'No. But HM deliberately omit any measure of education as a conditioning variable in their basic analysis. 1979. A). 249). education still affects outcomes. but it is unclear whether age does.91 on Tue. The SES variable is an 3 Also. the importance of IQ dominates socioeconomic background for white men" (p. 263): "It has scores of 'Yes' and 'No. HM develop a simple recursive modef in which years of schooling intervenes between that early score and the later IQ score obtained in the AFQI. On pages 124-25. In Chapter 5. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . for four reasons":education is in 2 Herrnstein and Murray define the Middle Class Values index as follows (p. SES. The Analysis Behind the Conclusions HM draw their conclusions on the relative importance of IQ and SES primarily from their estimates. SES. but that the former relationship "was not as significant" as the latter (p. been in the labor force throughout 1989.18.400 of the NLSY respondents. As we see it. 198). where A denotes the respondent's age.32. by nonparametric regression analysis. Most analysts have considered education to be an intervening variable in the chain that runs from child backgroundto adult outcomes.

0) = 0. Indeed. A) = exp(x'p)/[1 + exp(x'P)]. HM collect the coefficient estimates for the various logistic regressions in an Appendix.09) (0. age and either SES (for the solid curve) or IQ (for the dashed curve) were set at their mean values.with asymptotic standard errorsin parentheses: . 0) = 0.4 Observe 4 The probability of being in poverty conditional on (IQ. and occupation.SES. 0) for -2 < SES < What their computer output calls R2 is in fact one minus the ratio of the unconstrained and constrained log-likelihoods (constrained meaning setting all slopes at zero). The poverty-SES curvegraphedin Figure1 sets IQ = A = 0 and computesP(Y= 110.84 IQ . Define "more important"to mean that one curve in Figure 1 is steeper than the other. Over this range of IQ values.07) HM reporttheirestimatesto eightsignificant digits. But the link between HM's logistic regressions and their conclusions becomes frayed if Over this range of SES values. quite properly in our opinion. and s is its sample standard deviation.5 B.024 A. 0) = 0. which they describe as "the square of the correlation between the set of independent variables and the dependent variable expressed as the logarithm of the odds ratio. cited above. that "Cognitive ability is more important than parental SES in determining poverty. The respondent's IQ. SES. 0) = 0. after all.0. the log-odds ratio. If one defines concepts in a particularway. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . pp. they present their findings through a series of graphs that show how the probability of each outcome of interest varies over a four standard-deviation range of IQ or SES values. and age are all measured in the standardized form (x . is not even defined for individual observations.0. m is its sample average.m)/s.01." This is the primaryempirical finding on which HM base their conclusion." They present analogous graphs in Chapters 6 through 12 and interpret them in the same way.33-SES ." But that description cannot be correct.09) (0. x' (0. 5 How well do HM's logistic regressions fit the data? HM (pp. which have Y = 1 or Y = 0. In Appendix 4 (p. index combining information on parental income. their logistic regression computer output in Appendix 4 does include an R2. -2. 2. Recall that the regressorsare in standardized form. HM's conclusion about the determination of poverty follows immediately from their empirical analysis. the poverty-IQ curve sets SES = A = 0 and computes P(Y = 1IIQ. The comparative SES in determining whether young white adults are below the povertyline Source: Herrnsteinand Murray (1994. HM give these coefficientestimates.Goldbergerand Manski:The Bell Curve Probability of being in poverty 30% 767 20% 1' As IQ goesfrom low to high 10% that the curve marked "As IQ goes from low to high" is sloped more steeply downward than the one marked "As parental SES goes from low to high. Define a respondent's "cognitive ability"to be his or her AFQT score and. the role of goodness-of-fit measures in assessing the validity of a regression. where x is the raw value of the variable. holding the other covariates fixed at their sample average values.04.32. In the text. 651-53) it is by no means clear how that statistic measures fit. This content downloaded from 186. SES. the probability of poverty falls from P(Y = 11-2.27 to P(Y = 112. 0) for -2 < IQ < 2. Analogously. Concepts and Measures Veryhigh (+2 SDs) 0% Verylow (-2 SDs) As parentalSES goes from low to high roles of IQ and parental Figure 1. but this turns out not to be much of an issue (see the standard errors in footnote 4).0. or logit. 0. Our Figure 1 reproduces the HM graph (p. define "parental SES" to be HM's SES index. SES. p.We haveroundedto the nearesthundredth forsimplicity. A) has the form P(Y = lIIQ.91 on Tue.08) (0. similarly. education.12 to P(Y = 110. 596). about the only reason to question HM's conclusion is that Figure 1 does not indicate the statistical precision with which the two curves are estimated. As noted by William Greene ( 1993. 134) Note: For computingthe plot. With these definitions. the probability of poverty falls from P(Y = 110. Still. 593-94) downplay.65 . 134) of the probability of being in poverty. 0. in the text they pay no attention at all to goodness-of-fit measures.

In practice. but merely show weaker effects. Then one must ask at least these questions: What is "cognitive ability. one is unwilling to define a concept simply by its a firstdegree.but IQ tests expressly it mostaccurately. IQ scoresmatch. In Appendix 2. they argue at length that the AFQT meets the criteria for a good IQ test. mother's education.22-23) Later in the book. To us. Cognitive Ability and the AFQT HM have much to say about the nature and measurement of cognitive ability. 130) "their IQ scores were already as deeply rooted a fact about them as their height. The AFQT was administered to NLSY respondents when they were 15-23 year-old adolescents. (pp. rather than having an experiential component." they just use it. Vol. There is such a thing as a general factor of cognitiveabilityon which humanbeings differ. All standardized tests of academic achievementmeasurethis generalfactorto designed some degree. This single variable carries the burden of expressing all aspects of the child's This content downloaded from 186.or racial heritable. ability. Socioeconomic Environment and the HM SES Index Whereas HM dwell at length on the concept and measurement of cognitive ability.although life. IQ scoresarestable. Since the purpose of the index was to measure the socioeconomic environment in which the NLSY youth was raised. But HM D. or aptitude 2. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .18. the casualness with which HM treat socioeconomic environment is astonishing. Properly administered IQ tests are not biasedagainst social. their treatment of respondents' socioeconomic environment is cavalier at best. 117). 573-74) They offer no opinion on the adequacy of their SES index as an expression of respondents' socioeconomic environment.32." and on page 691 assert that using IQ test scores from age 7 or 8 would not change the qualitative conclusions about the effect of IQ scores. whose educational experiences were in some cases completed. XXXIII (June 1995) insist that (p. In the text. ethnic. they devote all of Appendix 3 to this matter. measure forthatpurpose it 3. rather than as an inborn endowment of cognitive ability. they do not even define the term "socioeconomic status. not just its correlation with socioeconomic status. income. Cognitive ability is substantially andno more nolessthan40 percent apparently than80 percent. overmuchof a person's 5. 6.whatever is that people meanwhen they use the word orsmartin ordinary language. they simply take it for granted that their SES index-a rather ad hoc concoction of information on parental attributes-adequately captures the social environment within which a child grows up. HM observe that low cognitive ability is statistically associated with various socially undesirable behaviors and say: "We will argue that intelligence itself.768 Journal of Economic Literature. the specific variables employed referred to the parents' status: total net family income. intelligent notperfectly so.(pp.economic." and how well is it measured by the AFQT? What is "parentalSES" and how well is it measured by the HM SES index? What does it mean to say that cognitive ability is "more important" than SES in determining poverty and other outcomes? We now consider these questions in turn.91 on Tue. and an index of occupational status of the adults living with the subject at the age of 14. is responsible for these group differences" (p. that are by now beyond significanttechnical dispute: 1. And so it is possible to view the test scores as measuring educational attainment. demonstrably groups. father's education. Thus they consider the difference between early and late scores to be purely random error. C. they define their SES index as follows: The SES index was created with the variables that are commonly used in developing measures of socioeconomic status: education. They devote their entire introductory chapter to this subject and summarize their perspective as follows: Here are six conclusions regarding tests of drawn fromtheclassical cognitive tradition. At the beginning of Part II. and occupation. 4.

Standardizationin the manner of HM-essentially using "beta weights"-has been a common practice in sociology. the very fact that one is missing may indicate something about family structure. then the poverty-SES curve would be more steeply sloped than the one in Figure 1. 0) = 0. Given these transformations. The parental income component is automatically missing for youth who are already living in their own households at the beginning of the survey. 0) would fall from P(Y = 110. Thus.27 to P(Y = 110. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . an approach similar to that of HM. comparison of slopes with respect to unit changes in the raw variables is not a well-posed question. if HM are correct about the upward trend in cognitive stratification). 231): "this measure of strength is totally inappropriate for the purpose of informing policy choice. reported income then refers to the respondent rather than to his or her parents. This accomplishment is worse than useless-it yields misleading inferences. from family structure to sibling relationships to neighborhood characteristics. the quantity P(Y = 110. Consider Figure 1. reason is that standardization accomplishes nothing except to give quantities in noncomparable units the superficial appearance of being in comparable units. see Goldberger 1991. Consider how the poverty-SES curve in Figure 1 would appear if. Hence. only 7.825. 0) = 0. SES. The Coleman Report sought to measure the "strength" of the relationship between various school factors and pupil achievement through the percent of variance explained by each factor. Cain and Watts write (p. the new poverty-SES curve would essentially coincide wit the poverty-IQ curve shown in Figure 1.2.-2. The 6 HM measure the four components of their index in standardized form and then average them. as described earlier. How might the phrase "more important" be given policy-relevant content? The answer was given years ago by Cain and Harold Watts (1970) in their critique of the Coleman Report on equality of educational opportunity (for a related discussion. Most econometrics textbooks do not even mention the practice.6 769 E. the standard deviation of the SES index were to grow to 2. For example. 240-41). An immediate issue is that the normalized AFQT score and raw SES index are measured in qualitatively different units. This content downloaded from 186. Yet it is very rarely encountered in economics. m is the sample average of x. and the other coefficients would remain unchanged. all else equal. if father's education is missing. The coefficient on the standardized SES variable would change from -0."They go on to offer an alternative approach: 7 Assume that the estimated logistic regression presented in footnote 4 provides a correct description of P(Y = lIIQ. the steeper the slope. Over the range -2 < SES < 2.7 We find no substantively meaningful way to interpret the empirical analysis in Part II of The Bell Curve as showing that IQ is "more important"than SES as a determinant of social behaviors. psychology. We must still confront HM's interpretation of the relative slopes of the two curves in Figure 1 as measuring the "relative importance" of cognitive ability and SES in determining poverty status. 574-75).01. and s is its sample standard deviation. and cannot provide relevant information for the policy maker.18.000 NLSY respondents (including nonwhites and the supplementary samples). that might indicate the father was not present during the respondent's childhood. A).32. Of the 12. the larger the standard deviation of SES. If SES values were to vary more across the population. pp.5 times its current magnitude (as it might. SES. and education.91 on Tue.33 to -0. Thus the two curves in Figure 1 graph the probability of poverty status over four standard-deviationranges of IQ and SES values. The slope of the poverty-SES curve depends on the standard deviation of raw SES-index values within the population of non-Latino white respondents to the NLSY.HM measure cognitive ability and socioeconomic status in an apparently common unit-standard deviations. What Does "MoreImportant" Mean? Let us now set aside all qualms about HM's use of the AFQT to measure cognitive ability and the SES index to measure a child's social environment.m)/s where.Goldbergerand Manski:The Bell Curve upbringing.500 reported data on all four components of the index (pp. in which 6ase HM simply use the available components to form the index. The burden on the index is further increased by the fact that many respondents are missing data on some components. As for the other components. HM's resolution of this most basic problem is to transform each variable x into the standardized form (x .

etc. Genetics and Racial Differences in IQ Now HM confront "the flashpoint of intelligence as a public topic: the question of genetic differences between the races" (p. XXXIII(June1995) SES index. p. have nothingto do with genetic differences. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 286-87) At this point (and elsewhere). as compared with the alternative of spending the same sum on X3. 3. in the sense of underpredicting black achievement. We can. one could contemplate allocating some fixed sum to improve IQ or to improve SES.The seeds will grow and th9 resultwill in Iowa. economic. Earlier. on "Ethnic Differences in Cognitive Ability.e. when they regress AFQT score on a race dummy and their SES index. 637-42).6 as if This content downloaded from 186.. 298) But in the very next paragraph they use the within-group heritability estimate of 0. but they express some doubt that the trend will continue. the other in the MojaveDesert. 271). SAT. and ACT). be uncorrelated. comes to the fore. and should. But unless some such basis is defined and its relevance to policy explained. HM have their doubts. 278).and their intelligencealso affectsthe IQ of the childrenvia both genes andenvironment.not in the Mojave. The reasonthat parentshave high or low socioeconomicstatus is in part a function of their intelligence.770 journal of EconomicLiterature.18. the environment)take its course. and let nature(i. 295). say. the NAEP.21 standard deviations below that of white respondents (p. Vol. too. and educational conditions for blacks. They go on to argue that black-white differences in IQ cannot be accounted for by differences in SES. they argue in the text and in Appendix 5 that the AFQT and other ability tests are not biased against blacks. HM seem to have lost sight of the fact that the classical model on which they relied for heritability estimation-the Y = Z + U scheme-requires that genes and environment.76 standard deviation difference between the average IQ of blacks and whites who are matched on the A. man hours. Their discussion begins wisely enough: in indiThata trait is geneticallytransmitted vidualsdoes not meanthat groupdifferences in that trait are also geneticin origin. In Chapter 13. (Cain and Watts 1970. (pp.g. They report that the average AFQT score of black respondents to the NLSY is 1.91 on Tue. This requirement is difficult or impossible to reconcile with their story of parent-child transmission. we expressed our strong doubts about the adequacy of their SES index as a measure of a child's socioeconomic environment. the question of "strength"has no meaning. They worry that: socioeconomic statusis also a result of cognitive ability. Recognizing the sensitivity of this topic. Ethnic Differences With Part III.Budgetary cost is not necessarily the only basis of comparability. Drawing heavily on Jensen (1980).32." ethnicity. It would be meaningful to say that IQ is more important than SES if spending the sum on IQ improvement rather than SES improvement were to yield a larger expected change in some outcome of interest.. or race. 231) To apply this approach in the context of The Bell Curve.) on working a change in x2.Anyone who doubtsthis assertionmaytake two handfuls of genetically identical seed corn and plant one handfulin Iowa. HM "believe that the best way to keep the temperature down is to work through the main facts carefully and methodically"(p. ask for the expected change in y induced by spending some specific amount of money (or political people of high and low cognihigh and tive abilitymove to correspondingly low places in the socioeconomiccontinuum. Their reasoning is that. the coefficient on the race dummy implies a 0. the gaps between the average scores of American blacks and whites have narrowed substantially in the past 20 years (pp. it would seem evident that our interest lies in purposive manipulation of the x's in order to effect an improved performance in terms of y. 290-92. This they attribute to improved social. HM acknowledge that on academic aptitude and achievement tests (e. Z and U. but of a quite different sort. (p. entitled "The National Context." they begin with the wellestablished empirical finding of an approximately one standard-deviation difference in IQ scores between American whites and blacks.

that this distinction says nothing about the malleability of IQ. 312). Their conclusion? "If tomorrow you knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that all the cognitive differences between races were 100 percent genetic in origin. This sudden skepticism about the trustworthiness of IQ tests as measures of true intelligence reappears in Chapter 15. 299). So they are encouraged to look for genetic sources of the ethnic differences. of course. nothing of any significance should change" (p. To pursue their own analogy. To us. they note that black-white differences are largest on the more g-loaded tests (this refers to Spearman's g. just like genetic differences. (p. They apply their 0. After this extensive discussion of the possible role of genetic sources of group IQ differences. but merely in test-taking skills: "A shifting link between IQ and intelligence is not only possible but probable under certain conditions" (p. were contaminated by the Flynn effect. on the average. they suggest in a footnote that the rise in scores may not reflect a rise in intelligence. 187) Lest we be encouraged. whereby IQ scores (though not necessarily cognitive ability itself) rise secularly over time" (p. And. perhaps as much as one point per year. HM say. has reflected on the devastating effects of racism on selfconfidence . Given their size and speed. "Let's consider the possibility that there is a FIRE!" The authors of The Bell Curve appear to lack the wisdom of an earlier writer on intelligence and race: Virtually every commentator on what it is like to grow up black in America.Goldbergerand Manski:The Bell Curve it were a between-group measure. Relying primarily on work by Jensen. To put it another way. This tendency for IQ scores to move upward over time is quite strong.18. it will yield no reduction over time in the black-white IQ gap. "at any point in time. average performance is higher than it was in the past. 288-89). it is one's posi- This content downloaded from 186. . When the real difficulties are compounded by the fears engendered by centuries of white propagandizing that white is smarter (and by elements of self-denigration by blacks). they use information on the variance' of corn yields within Iowa and the variance of corn yields within the Mojave Desert to estimate the role of environment in accounting for differences in corn yields between Iowa and the Mojave. say. two generations ago as much as whites today differ from blacks today. Further. HM announce that "it matters little whether the genes are involved at all" (p. 303). see Leon Kamin (1995). . whether novelist or sociologist or memoirist.32. When past versions of IQ tests are given nowadays. . 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 346). p. the shifts in time necessarily have been due more to changes in the environment than to changes in the genes. the other shows some differences (pp. and that environmental differences. 308) 771 tion in the distribution that has the most significant implications for social and economic life as we know it and also for the position of one's children" (p. HM's treatment of genetics and race is akin to standing up in a crowded theater and shouting. Then they inform us that the distinction between genes and environment as determinants of IQ is logically irrelevant to the treatment of individuals socially or educationally.6 estimate to calculate how much of a mean environmental difference there would have to be between ethnic groups to provide a purely environmental explanation of the mean IQ difference. 314). for an evaluation. where they say that "Comparisonsbetween successive generations tested with the same instrument . . whites today may differ in IQ from whites. It is in this context that they introduce us to the "Flynn effect"-the worldwide phenomenon of rising test scores. or "general intelligence" measure). Their conclusion: "Environmental differences of this magnitude and pattern are implausible" (p.91 on Tue. They cite two studies of mixed-race children matched in one or another way with shows no mean IQ difwhite children-one ference. they tell us that because the Flynn effect applies to both blacks and whites. the result can be immobilization of even the most able and ambitious. (Murray 1984. They summarize data on African blacks (pp. may persist across generations. and they point out that "g or other broad measures of intelligence typically have relatively high levels of heritability" (p. 309). 309-10). 728).

it matters whether one conditions on IQ. SES.91 on Tue. entitled "The Demography of Intelligence. Apocalypse Coming With Chapter 15. the B/W gap in annual family income or in persons below the poverty line narrows after controlling for IQ but still remains sizable. Controlling only for age. 320). Many of the same outcome variables are taken up as in Part II. and evaluating at IQ = 114 (the sample mean IQ for college graduates). Separate logistic regressions are run for each group.32. Still. Later in the book (Chs. but now the sample is split into three racial. . Latinos. For each binary outcome. In contrast. Vol. On page 341. an ability test that is biased against blacks. Controlling also for IQ. the emphasis is entirely on the "shortened" regressions that use only age and IQ as explanatory variables. On two vital indicators of success-educational attainment and entry into black-white prestigious occupations-the discrepancy reverses. whites" (p. blacks have a better record of earning college degrees than . (p. Drawing strong policy conclusions from primitive empirical analyses is characteristic of The Bell Curve. HM use these bar charts to show that. or ethnic. they use this and a similar finding on the probability of being in a high-IQ occupation to attack affirmative action policies in higher education and the workplace. HM resume their analysis of the NLSY.18. 19 and 20). Estimated coefficients on IQ and SES are reported in an Appendix (but not those for the age variable). they estimate the probability of attaining a bache- C. in comparing outcomes across ethnic groups. using only IQ. 317) HM refer to the reversal in the black-white discrepancy in educational attainment as a "black advantage" (p. which could lead to further divergence between whites and other groups in future gen- This content downloaded from 186.772 Journal of Economic Literature." But for blacks and whites. HM conclude Chapter 14 saying "Racial and ethnic differences in this country are seen in a new light when cognitive ability is added to the picture.27 for whites and 0. they assemble evidence that "demographic trends are exerting downward pressure on the distribution of cognitive ability in the United States and that the pressures are strong enough to have social consequences. after all. blacks tend to be more motivated than whites." They report that "blacks and Latinos are experiencing even more serious dysgenic pressures than whites. IQ. After controlling for IQ. XXXIII (June 1995) lor's degree to be 0. For example. So HM conclude that "after taking IQ into account." HM's excursion toward an apocalyptic vision of the American future begins in earnest. the main point of the analysis is that IQ is a powerful variable in accounting for observed racial differences in outcomes. In the text. and evaluating at age = 29 (the sample mean age of all NLSY respondents). what is the probability of the outcome conditional on age and IQ? HM often report the latter probabilities at the average age and IQ of all NLSY respondents. Ethnicity. without explanation. the story is more complicated. and Behavior In Chapter 14.50 for whites and 0. they estimate the probability of attaining a bachelor's degree to be 0. but sometimes choose another reference point.11 for blacks. holding IQ and age fixed. and non-Latino groups-blacks. . whites. what is the probability of the outcome conditional only on age? Second. . .68 for blacks. 320). 340). a serious analyst would recognize that HM's logistic regressions of educational attainment on IQ and age are consistent with a wide variety of structural stories. and also with the hypothesis that the AFQT test is. B. Awareness of these relationships is an essential first step in trying'to construct an equitable America" (p. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . the text presents a bar chart answering two questions for each ethnic group: First. so the notion of controlling for SES has been abandoned. Whatever one thinks of affirmative action. larger numbers of blacks than whites graduate from college and enter the professions . the HM findings are consistent with the hypothesis that. They "find that Latinos and whites of similar cognitive ability have similar social behavior and economic outcomes. Some linear regressions with wage and income as the dependent variables are also run (with occupational dummies added to the list of explanatory variables). and age as explanatory variables.

" They pose this question: "How should policy I of The Bell Curve begins this way: The twentieth century dawned on a world segregated into social classes defined in terms of money." (p. black and Latino women tend to have their first child earlier than do whites. moreover. 535). (p. and with it the nature of some of the immigrant population." In brief. and. Their answer has two parts. Our thesis is that the twentieth century has continued the transformation. HM report that. but so did out-and-out wealth. The Coming of the Custodial State Following the introductory chapter on the nature and measurement of intelligence. Early in Part IV they write: "For the foreseeable future. the earlier she has her first child. HM remind us that IQ score is not necessarily the same thing as cognitive ability itself.Goldberger and Manski: The Bell Curve erations. hard-working. HM find that the mean IQ of the children was only 92. 773 cient lines of separation based on hereditary rank were being erased. and because "Presumably the new births will be weighted toward more highly educated women with higher IQ" (p. HM push their thesis much further. (p. They go on to say that the black-white IQ gap for the children is larger than the gap separating their mothers. mating patterns in America show increasing stratification by intelligence. talent. Here they express concern that the United States is experiencing * * * An increasingly isolated cognitive elite. begun in 1986. 509) in which the cognitive elite "will implement an expanded welfare state for the underclass that also keeps it out from underfoot" (p.91 on Tue. HM develop their vision of a cognitively stratified custodial state in the last chapter of the book. and includes the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test. replaced by a more complicated set of overlapping lines. the lower the IQ of the mother. provides data on the children of the NLSY respondents. they assert that no practical policy instrument can raise cognitive ability. A deteriorating quality of life for people at the bottom end of the cognitive ability distribution. American intelligence is plunging" (p. power.18. and often of high IQhas been changing. 523). they declare: "Cognitive partitioning will continue. 389) and toward the end. The an8The Child Supplement. Part They predict that the country is being transformed into "something resembling a caste society" (p. They label this the custo- dial state. imaginative. and below the mean score of their mothers. deal with the twin realities that people differ in intelligence for reasons that are not their fault and that intelligence has a powerful bearing on how well people do in life?" (p. Nevertheless. First. they use IQ data contained in the Child Supplement to the NLSY to generate worrisome forecasts of the future distribution of IQ in America. fully half a standard deviation below the national mean. The shift is more subtle than the previous one but more momentous. increasingly. 355). HM recognize that the number of children ultimately born to NLSY respondents cannot be accurately assessed using data through 1990 because the respondents were still relatively young (age 25 to 33) at that time. But on page 346.32. They state "If we take the NLSY results at face value. Social standing still played a major rofe. In Part IV. so that the twenty-first will open on a world in which cognitive ability is the decisive dividing force. and status. among NLSY respondents. the problems of low cognitive ability are not going to be solved by outside interventions to make children smarter. there is the Flynn effect-the observed secular increase in IQ scores. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . and. a test said to be highly reliable and g-loaded. educational credentials.8 Of course. 25) To develop this thesis. A merging of the cognitive elite with the affluent. the lower IQ classes and races are outbreeding the upper ones. self-starting." And they warn that immigration is exacerbating the problem: "the self-selection process that iised to attract the classic American immigrant-brave. Vision of the American Future A. if less often accompanied by a sword or tiara. entitled "A Place for Everyone. 350). 509) 4. HM make two key empirical assertions: the increasingly technological character of modern society places an increasing premium on intelligence. It cannot be This content downloaded from 186.

some findings . Then the economy at time t + 1 is characterized by a stronger positive association between IQ and earnings than the economy at t. X) and by the form of stopped. Assume that individual output and earnings are identical. The gist of the empirical analysis in Part III is that. Assume that the distribution of X remains unchanged between t and t + 1 but that increased stratification in mating patterns makes the distribution of IQ more dispersed at t + 1. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .91 on Tue." While we find it relatively easy to interpret HM's vision in standard economic terms. the cognitively gifted" (p.9 Regarding schooling. as life is lived: understanding that each human being has strengths and weaknesses.depend on whether one controls for IQ. The second part of HM's answer is that society must adapt to the inevitability of increased cognitive stratification. 389): "The one intervention that works consistently is adoption at birth from a bad family environment to a good one. the economy at t + 1 is characterized by greater earnings inequality than the economy at t. individual output Y is determined by (IQ. and selective citations of serious empirical studies to justify their assertions of increasing demand for intelligence. in comparing outcomes across ethnic groups. Also assume that endowments of IQ and X are statistically independent within the population. Then the distribution of earnings at time t is determined by the distribution of (IQ. that of all the rewards we can confer on each other. But how? HM declare "The answer turns us back to the ancient concern with place" (p. Trying to pretend that inequality does not really exist has led to disaster. Finally. 535): society will function effectively if everyone knows and accepts his or her appropriate place. Visions and Empirical Analysis HM do not write in the standard language of economic analysis. hypothetical vignettes. Now consider the economy at time t + 1. 417). because the forces driving it cannot be stopped" (p.774 Journal of Economic Literature.18.. X) increase more with IQ thanft(o. According to HM. Whatever one makes of the NLSY regressions. X) is an increasing function of IQ. assume that there is no feasible intervention that can alter the distribution of IQ at time t + 1 or change the form of the production function ft+l(*. these regressions offer no meaningful empirical evidence on the dynamic of American society. that the success of each human life is not measured externally but internally. they say this: "Formal schooling offers little hope of narrowing cognitive inequality on a large scale in developed countries. and increasing assortative mating by intelligence. competencies and incompetencies. Then increasing cognitive stratification is inevitable. This content downloaded from 186. In Part II they are obsessed with using the NLSY data to show that IQ is "more important" than SES in determining social behavior. Also assume that it is not possible to use taxes or other means to substantially alter the identity of output and earnings. assets and desits. holding X fixed. In Part I.*).32. Moreover. because so much of its potential contribution has already been realized with the advent of universal twelve-year systems" (p. 551-52) Jft(*. XXXIII (June 1995) time t. The text of the book concludes with this: Inequality of endowments. the American educational system is already teaching most students as much as they are capable of learning: "The problem with American education is confined mainly to one group of students. we cannot similarly interpret the empirical analysis that HM use to support their vision.. including intelligence. Assume that. B. It is time for America once again to try living with inequality. 389). At 9 There is only one type of intervention that HM are willing to endorse (p. 551). the most precious is a place as a valued fellow citizen. a channel for intervention that comes readily to mind. Vol. X). they offer only scattered anecdotes. Then it follows that the economy at time t is characterized by a positive association between IQ and earnings. ft(. but we may recast their vision of the American future in these terms. (pp. X) through a production function Y = ft(IQ. is a reality. Here is a simple model that seems to us to capture their main assertions: Assume that each individual is endowed with an IQ and with other attributes X.). Assume that technological change makes ft+l(*. qualities we admire and qualities we do not admire. X). Trying to eradicate inequality with artificially manufactured outcomes has led to disaster.

We conclude that The Bell Curve is driven by advocacy for HM's vision. Policy interventions may or may not be effective. not by serious empirical analysis. for example. First.32. In an earlier book. and criminals: I will suggest that changes in incentives that occurred between 1960 and 1970 may be used to explain many of the trends we have been discussing. is not a new theme for Murray. C." We find it difficult to reconcile these statements with the wellknown findings of the project. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . or racial differences. (p. Losing Ground. on the effects of nutrition on IQ." when they should instead ask what the findings reveal about the benefits of intensive interventions. it may well be that the findings are also consistent with alternative hypotheses which assert substantial treatment effects. HM revert to the loose style of Part I to make their case that no practical policy instrumnent can raise cognitive ability. They hardly justifying investing 10 In this experiment. drawn to serve as a control group. intensive educational and social services were provided to a random sample of about sixty black children aged three and four. 405) The rhetoric of this assessment is revealing. (1984). 1984). the investigators have long been concerned with the effect of the intervention on a range of social behaviors. America may or may not be on the way towards a custodial state. whenever evaluations yield ambiguous results. these studies do not reject the null hypothesis of no effect. dropouts. This effect is neither small nor statistically insignificant by conventional criteria. unwed. They conclude by stating that the findings of the Perry Preschool Project do not justify "investing billions of dollars in run-of-the-mill Head Start programs. HM take the position that. In fact. Michigan in the early 1960s. No special services were provided to a second random sample of such children. his critique emphasized the rationality of the poor.91 on Tue. We know no more after studying The Bell Curve than we did before.18. the Ypsilanti investigators have reported that 67 percent of the treatment group and 49 percent of the control group were high school graduates by age 19 (see Berrueta-Clement et al. the Ypsilanti group believes it has found evidence for a higher likelihood of high school graduation and some post-high school education. Consider.Goldberger and Manski: The Bell Curve In Part IV. their assessment is: "Many studies that seem to be wellconducted variations of the successful ones have failed to demonstrate any effect on IQ at all" (p. in the absence of firm empirical evidence for a treatment effect. 393). HM repeatedly discount evaluations that do yield clearcut findings of treatment effects.10 Here is what HM have to say: Although this intensive attempt to raise intelligence failed to produce lasting IQ gains. such as those that occupied HM in Parts II and III. But every empirical researcher should know that "failure to reject" the no-effect hypothesis does not establish its truth. Where they do cite evaluations of policy interventions. En route. using classical statistical significance tests. For example. lower arrest rates and fewer years spent in special education classes as a result of the year or two in preschool. Second. See John Berrueta-Clement et al. It is not necessary to invoke the Zeitgeist of the 1960s. Lost Ground That antipoverty programs are ineffective. the Perry Preschool Project undertaken in Ypsilanti. or changes in the work ethic. higher employment rates and literacy scores. or the com- This content downloaded from 186. one should maintain the null hypothesis of no effect. "Failed to demonstrate any effect on IQ at all" must mean that. The treatment and control groups have been followed into adulthood. indeed counter-productive. For example. HM begin by portraying the Perry Preschool Project as a failed attempt to raise IQ. they belittle the Perry Preschool findings by saying that the group of investigators "believes it has found evidence" for various outcomes and by saying that "The effects are small and some of them fall short of statistical significance. they systematically slant their interpretation of the findings in two ways. 775 billions of dollars in run-of-the-mill Head Start programs. It simply implies that the empirical findings are consistent with the no-effect hypothesis. The effects are small and some of them fall short of statistical significance.

ARTHUR S. that govern human behavior. Fairness in employment testing: Valid- ity generalization. (p. .g. JENCKS. When the nation seeks to lower unemployment or lower the crime rate or induce welfare mothers to get jobs. KAMIN. All were results that could have been predicted (indeed. Feb. soned and credible final form. 154-55) In contrast. 1991. 1993. peer review of The Bell Curve is now an exercise in damage control rather than prevention. Winter 1969. 1971. Bias in mental testing. October 31. . Ypsilanti. GOLDBERGER. Cambridge.18. revised appropriatelyin the light of that scrutiny. Sept.. October 24. MANSKI. 64(1). October 24. HAROLD W. XXXIII(June1995) ternal scientific scrutiny. 1984. CONLISK. ALEXANDRA K. pp. New York: Basic Books. Feb. Nov. A Concluding Comment on Process A serious scientific book should be the culmination of a program of research that has been subjected to external scientific scrutiny. 56(1). 1983. 15-32!' MURRAY. pp. . carrots and sticks. ARTHUR. MA: Harvard U. DC: HERRNSTEIN. 1991. 39(1). LEON J. pp. 5. 1995. And with that. his policy conclusions have remained the same from 1984 to 1994. Part III of The Bell Curve ends with this passage: The lesson of this chapter is that large proportions of the people who exhibit the behaviors and problems that dominate the nation's social policy agenda have limited cognitive ability. pp. While Murray'srationale has changed drastically.. AND WATTS. ROBERT. . CHARLES F. 1980. 228. Press. 1974.776 Journal of EconomicLiterature. WILLIAM H. "Can Equalization of Opportunity Reduce Social Mobility?" Amer. Only if that review is passed successfully would society at large be concerned with the research. minority issues. or higher rates of illegitimacy and welfare dependency. "Review of The Bell Curve. pp. 43-64. pp. . and the General Aptitude Test Battery. 35(2). HM and their publishers have done a disservice by circumventing peer review. but with beautifully orchestrated initial publicity. ARTHUR. pp. Apr." American Sociological Review. 1984. JOHN. JOHN ET AL. Rev. The New Republic. Changed plexities of postindustrial economies. Through essays like ours. The Bell Curve was sprung full blown without ex- JENSEN. in some instances were predicted) from the changes that social policy made in the rewards and penalties. given the process to date." Atlantic Monthly. Econometric analysis. increased dropout from the labor force. 228-42. WISE. 1979. "Five Decades of Educational Assortative Mating. the solutions must be judged by their effectiveness with the people most likely to exhibit the problem: the least intelligent people. Time. JOHN A. and iteratively honed into a well-rea- National Academy Press. pp. 386) lives: The effects of the Perry preschool program on youths through age 19. 327-47. Who gets ahead: The determinants of economic success in America. MA: Harvard U. But. In this paradigm. poor and not-poor alike. Often they are near the definition for mental retardation . 1950-1980. research that purports to be scientific would first be reviewed on its scientific merits. CHRISTOPHER ET AL. Vol. Cambridge. 1979. JENSEN. Washington. "IQ.. in order to explain increasing unemployment among the young.A course in econometrics. RICHARD J. AND WIGDOR. 272(2). HARTIGAN. 1970. All were rational responses to changes in the rules of the game of surviving and getting ahead . Newsweek. MI: High/Scope Press. "How Much Can We Boost IQ and Scholastic Achievement?" Harvard Educational Review." Economica. 1994. 1123. New York: Macmillan. I begin with the proposition that all. 1994. This content downloaded from 186. GREENE. AND DAVID A. "Problems in Making Policy Inferences from the Coleman Report. New York: Basic Books. use the same general calculus in arriving at decisions. 6 Aug 2013 10:43:08 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . we reach the practical questions of policy that will occupy us for the rest of the book. 1994. only the exigencies are different. Press. CAIN. October 9. 99103. New York: Free Press. REFERENCES BERRUETA-CLEMENT. 1994). A vast stream of reactions in the general media followed immediately (e. Econ. a process of scientific review is now under way." Scientific American. 1989. CHARLES A. Mar. eds. 80-90. GLEN G. College choice in America. New York Times Magazine.91 on Tue. (Murray 1984. "Heritability. MARE." American Sociological Review.32. 2nd ed. Losing ground: American social policy. 46(184).

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