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Facts are stubborn and the pen is mightier than the sword. Embrace facts as your friends while maintaining a healthy skepticism. Be prepared to reevaluate your opinions, interpretations, beliefs, assumptions, and conclusions as new information, evidence, or analysis becomes available or is better understood. Develop, refine, and apply your own theory of knowledge to make your own best decisions. Stay curious.
Definitions
Inquiry: 1. Curiosity, questioning, and learning. 2. Expressing doubt. Evidence: 1. Observed phenomenon Argument: 1. Logically valid conclusions drawn from the evidence presented. 2. A course of reasoning aimed at demonstrating truth or falsehood. 3. A set of statements in which one follows logically as a conclusion from the others. Valid logic and the scientific method help us understand what is, while fallacies and any mistake in reasoning distort our perception and obscure our thinking. Our minds are wired to select, interpret, and even distort, evidence supporting the hypothesis I'm OK. Every day we are subjected to manipulations, the influence of self-interested parties, factual and logical errors, opinion presented as fact, hype, and a variety of distortions. Writing and other communications can be evaluated using the criteria of: evidence provided, factual accuracy, credibility of references, logical validity, depth of analysis, innovation and insight, relevance and significance, balanced point of view, narrative skill, clarity, and presentation. Good writing is clear thinking made visible. Learn to evaluate what you see, read, and hear; think critically, ask questions and draw your own conclusions.
Describing Uncertainty
It is authentic and informative to describe the level of uncertainty when communicating information. Have the courage and authenticity to say: I don't know, or: This is a rough estimate or simply This is what I believe. We face measurement uncertainty, estimation error, sampling error, limited evidence, ambiguous evidence, anecdotal evidence, conflicting evidence, non-representative evidence, disputed evidence, misinformation, disinformation, inference, extrapolation, tradition, alternative points of view, the not-yet known, biased information, parochial points of view, taboos, and the unknowable when seeking answers to
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known, biased information, parochial points of view, taboos, and the unknowable when seeking answers to so many questions. Distinguish between undisputed fact, widely accepted fact, theory, expert opinion, hypothesis, minority opinion, filtered information, assumptions, disingenuous statements, biased information, dogma, faith, propaganda, and speculation when reporting information, engaging in dialogue, or making arguments. Separate anecdotes from systematic studies. Consider how well the evidence represents an larger conclusion. When drawing conclusions from a set of premises, comment on the level of certainty of each premise and the soundness of the logic leading to each conclusion. It is a fact that 2+2=4 and that one weather report forecasts a 60% chance of rain for tomorrow. Use error bars and significant figures to convey the range of uncertainly. Carefully distinguish what you do know from what you do not know. Separate observation from interpretation. Scientific reports properly include error bars, forecasts and estimates include confidence intervals and ranges, and opinions reflect only a personal point of view that may not be widely shared or well considered.
Critical Thinking
Critical thinking thinking directed toward solving problemsinvolves seeking evidence, closely examining reasoning and assumptions, analyzing basic concepts, and tracing out implications of what is said and what is done. Knowing the rules of logic and being alert to their fallacies is the first step in critical thinking. Critical thinkers consider a variety of questions when evaluating information and drawing conclusions. For example: What problem are we working to solve? What are my goals, objectives, and motives? What are the presenter's goals, objectives, biases, beliefs, and motives? What question will best advance the dialogue? How can a question be best worded and presented? What are the sources of information and fact? Are the samples and examples representative? What methods were used and what is the quality of information collection? What are the possible sources of error? What is the range of uncertainty and is it accurately described and represented? What modes of judgment and reasoning are used? What concepts make the reasoning possible? What assumptions underlie the concepts in use? What alternative interpretations and explanations fit the facts? Are these assumptions valid? What implications follow from the concepts and assumptions used? What is the point of view or frame of reference for this reasoning? Is the point of view one-sided or balanced ? These considerations suggest specific questions such as: What is the most fundamental issue here? From what point of view can this problem best be approached? What assumptions are being made here? Do these assumptions make sense? Why? What alternatives are sensible? What conclusion can best be inferred from the data? What alternative conclusions does it also support? What is the fundamental concept being presented? Is conclusion B consistent with assumption, data, premise, or conclusion A? How could I check the accuracy of these data? What alternative sources exist? Is this data reproducible? Is the data systematic and representative? If we accept conclusion A, what else is implied? Is this a credible source of information? Why? Critical thinking is not negative thinking. It is careful thinking directed toward deep understanding and insight. It recognizes that the obvious is not always true, and many things that are true are not at all obvious.
Evaluating Evidence
Evidence is often ambiguous or conflicting and always has to be evaluated, analyzed, and interpreted. Evidence is most reliable when: you can directly observe, examine, and probe the evidence yourself, in detail, at length, without
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evidence yourself, in detail, at length, without interference or restriction, without obstruction, and from a variety of vantage points. you are alert and unimpaired by alcohol, drugs, distraction, expectations, persuasion, vested interests, bias , sleep deprivation, delusion, stress, peer pressure, coercion, or strong emotions. you can verify the source, origin, authenticity, context, and representative nature of the evidence. multiple senses cross check and provide consistent information regarding the observation. Evidence is more complete and convincing when the way something feels is consistent with the way it looks. For example, after seeing a rock, you might pick it up to examine more closely. If the texture feels like a rock and the weight is what you expect, then you have additional evidence that what you are observing is a rock. However if the surface texture is unusual, or the weight is unexpected, then perhaps you are examining an artificial stone, or a hollow stone, or something quite different made of unexpected materials. the evidence is public and accessible, so that several people can examine it, share their findings, and discuss the similarities and differences, consistencies and inconsistencies in their observations. the evidence can be observed repeatedly, so observations can be checked, rechecked, and reexamined. the evidence can be observed under known or standard conditions that assist its evaluation. As an example, water has very different appearance and properties below freezing and above its boiling point. Careful records such as notes, photographs, audio and video recordings, and diagrams are more reliable and should be used instead of unaided recall when information is required later, after the evidence has been examined first hand. observation is separated from interpretation. We observe the sunlight appearing in the morning, traversing a path across the sky, and disappearing in the evening. One interpretation is that the earth is the center of the universe and the sun travels across the sky. An alternative interpretation is that the earth rotates on its axis as it revolves around the sun. the data is a good representation of the issue being investigated. Systematic information is more reliable than anecdotal information. Data obtained from an independent source is more reliable than data obtained, provided, selected, or interpreted by someone with an interest in the outcome. whenever statistics are used to summarize data and draw conclusions, ensure the statistics are correctly used. Also, take care to separate observation from interpretation to avoid drawing unfounded conclusions. Is that clear liquid water or vinegar? Is that attractive woman he is with his wife, daughter, co-worker, assistant, boss, or mistress? Have the people stopped asking questions because everything is OK or because inquiry is being punished or otherwise surpressed? Does the sun move across the sky, or does the earth move past the sun? What are alternative explanations for what we are seeing? Consider this amusing story where interpretation gets well ahead of observation.
Evaluating Authority
Rather than examining evidence first hand, we often rely on secondary information sources. These include gossip, rumor, hearsay, conversation, the Internet, and information provided by various luminaries and authorities available as publications, speeches, presentations, advertisements, endorsements, radio and TV programs, and news items. The English language use of the word authority has two very different meanings. One meaning describes positional powersuch as the right to control, command, or determineand the other describes expertise an accepted source of information. Evidence obtained from an authority has to be carefully evaluated based on the expertise of the authority, while respectfully disregarding the power, influence, fame, charisma, attachment, or appeal of the authority. Trust and verify. Exercise critical thinking. A common and seductive fallacy is an appeal to authority . We are often mislead because of a natural tendency to trust some people and distrust others. An authority often presents only a single point-of-view, and too often this point-of-view advances a vested interest. One example of this is an Internet site claiming to provide expert information on sleep problems as a public service. However, the web site is created, paid for, and edited entirely by the manufacturer of a particular prescription drug sleep aid. This is a manipulative marketing tool, disguised as a source of objective information. It uses factual statements to present a false message. Examine a variety of view www.emotionalcompetency.com/evidence.htm
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objective information. It uses factual statements to present a false message. Examine a variety of view points and apply critical thinking to help evaluate information provided by an authority, or even by an aligned group of authorities. Take particular care to evaluate the reliability of claims of divine or religious experience, pronouncements by authorities, appeals to common sense, the obvious, and other situations where information or conclusions are claimed to be self-evident, beyond question, or beyond our comprehension. When a person in power responds with a preemptive dismissalrefusing to seriously consider an inquiry, or replying without responding by using power, humiliation, ridicule, insult, intimidation, distraction, obfuscation , condescension, or humorit is often because the evidence is absent or unsubstantiated. Arrogance, belligerence, shouting, sneering, and repetition do not validate evidence, instead these distractions should raise suspicions. Confident experts typically welcome critical examination and discussion of their findings. Charlatans do not. Retain a healthy skepticism. Challenge authority as needed to understand and evaluate their claims and assess evidence. Challenge claims with a respectful and tactful request to show me and help me understand.
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unsubstantiated statement or opinion in the form of a question, yet it is often done. Parents are being manipulative when they ask their child Would you like to be a good boy and go to bed now? The coupling of being a good boy with the request to go to bed now establishes an unproven contingency because a bad boy might choose to go to bed now or a good boy might choose to stay up longer. EquivocationExploiting ambiguous languageMany words have several, often disparate meanings. Confusing these meanings is the fallacy of equivocation . Consider this joke as an example: Mom to teenage daughter leaving on a date: Now be good dear. Boyfriend remarking to his girlfriend after a steamy date: Wow, you really were good! Amphiboly two in a lumpThis fallacy exploits an ambiguous grammatical construct. A sign stating No Smoking Permitted can be interpreted to mean that it is permissible to not smoke, but it is also permissible to smoke, since smoking is not specifically prohibited by the ambiguous language. Accent ambiguity based on emphasisAristotle originally used this to describe differences in meaning resulting from differences in the pronunciation of words. For example, the phrase I resent that letter can be read to mean the letter was sent again, or the letter was seen as offensive, depending on the accent of the second word. More recently this fallacy is used to describe quotations taken out of context, a headline that screams about some minor detail, or the catch hidden in the fine print and ignored by the sales pitch. Category MistakeNot recognizing the composite from the collected elementsFor example, complaining that you can't find any forest here, all you see is a bunch of trees. Composition Errorincorrectly projecting attributes of a part onto the wholeFor example, since Joe is a good player, and he plays for team X, then team X must be a good team. Division Errorincorrectly projecting attributes of the whole onto each component partFor example, to say XYZ is a good corporation, so I am sure that Mr. X who works there must be a fine fellow is invalid. Also, to say that Suzie lives in a big house, so I'm sure she has a big bedroom is also invalid. Another form of this error is illustrated by this example: Dogs often run stray, the Chinese Shar-pei is a breed of dog, so I'm sure they often run stray. False dilemmaexploiting ambiguous complementsDeclaring that you are either with us or against us presents a false dilemma because against us is not an accurate set complement (i.e. encompasses everything else) of with us. The dilemma is false because it ignores the middle ground. In this example it is possible to primarily agree on some issues, primarily disagree on others, have partial agreement or disagreement on issues, and to have no established position on still others.
Quotations:
You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts. ~ Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan Facts are stubborn. It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. ~ Mark Twain The quality of our thinking is given in the quality of our questions ~ Linda Elder, Foundation for Critical Thinking Trust and verify. ~ Ronald Reagan . Eschew obfuscation. The further you get from power the closer you get to the truth ~ Bill Moyers It is not obvious what is obvious. A lie unchallenged becomes the truth. ~ Truth is strong enough by itself to convince, and should never be imposed by force. ~ Matthieu Richard Our questions cleanse our answers. ~ Krista Tippett Seek truth from facts. ~ When all else fails, men turn to reason. ~ Abba Eban To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. ~ Thomas Pain Reality is always your friend. Character is tested whenever power clashes with evidence. ~ Leland R. Beaumont For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. ~ Richard P. Feynman
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References
A Rulebook for Arguments , by Anthony Weston Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion , by Robert B. Cialdini Telling Lies: Clues to Deceit in the Marketplace, Politics, and Marriage, by Paul Ekman Root Cause Analysis : A Tool for Total Quality Management, by Paul F. Wilson Introduction to Logic , by Irving M. Copi, Carl Cohen Principles of logic, by Alex C Michalos Six Thinking Hats: An essential approach to business management , by Edward de Bono
An Encyclopedia of Claims, Frauds, and Hoaxes of the Occult and Supernatural , by The James Randi Educational Foundation Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds , by Charles Mackay Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon , by Daniel C. Dennett The Skeptic Reading Room Materials that may help you separate fact from fiction and manage the level of skepticism you are comfortable with. The Emperors New Suit , by Hans Christian Andersen Tools of Thinking: Understanding the World Through Experience and Reason , video course taught by James Hall, University of Richmond On Bullshit , by Harry G. Frankfurt Six Pillars of Self-Esteem , by Nathaniel Branden The Theory of Knowledge , Bertrand Russell (1926), for The Encyclopaedia Britannica Galileo and the Inquisition , by Jose Wudka Galileo and the Church , by Julian A. Smith All the President's Men, by Bob Woodward, Carl Bernstein The Foundation and Center for Critical Thinking aim to improve instruction in primary and secondary schools, colleges and universities. Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice , Nobel Prize Lecture, December 8, 2002 by Daniel Kahneman The Emperors Dilemma: A Computational Model of Self-Enforcing Norms, by Damon Centola, Robb Willer, and Michael Macy
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