15 July 2013 Economics Research

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China: Growth slowed to 7.5% yoy in 2Q13
Research Analysts Dong Tao +852 2101 7469 dong.tao@credit-suisse.com Weishen Deng +852 2101 7162 weishen.deng@credit-suisse.com

 China’s headline GDP growth was at 7.5% yoy in 2Q13, weaker than its prior reading of 7.7% yoy in 1Q13. This is in line with market expectations, but slightly stronger than our projection of 7.4%. In June, industrial production slowed to 8.9% yoy, retail sales accelerated to 13.3% yoy. FAI rose by 20.1% yoy for 1H13, weaker than the 20.2% expected by the market.  We were a little surprised by the data, as they seem to indicate that the spikes in SHIBOR and the much tightened credit conditions in June had little impact on production and investment. Certainly, more impact could surface in July, but still, given that banks lent out very little in the second half of June, infrastructure investment and inventory rebuild seem to have slowed down.  The government emphasised two points about this set of data: (1) the major economic indicators are within the expected ranges; and (2) the moderation in growth is a result of pro-active structural adjustment. In other words, Beijing does not believe that the current growth momentum is threatening the bottom line of its policy growth target, perceived around 7.0% yoy by China watchers. That seems to imply that Beijing is in no hurry to boost growth.  As such, we do not expect imminent expansionary policies to boost growth momentum. Still, we believe that growth momentum is probably weaker than the headline suggested and could weaken further amid tightened liquidity conditions.  Should that scenario play out, with modest growth deceleration, we would expect some form of policy reaction, including providing additional liquidity to local governments in late summer, as the country embraces the third plenary session of the party congress in October, though the scale would not be comparable to what was launched in 2009. Our growth forecast remains at 7.4% for 2013.

Exhibit 1: Headline growth slowed, sequential growth is a surprise
14
13 12 11 10 9 8 Real GDP Growth( %yoy) Real GDP Growth(% SAAR)

7 6
5

Source: NBS, Credit Suisse

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We estimate that the FAI for June alone rose 19. weaker than Bloomberg consensus of 9. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis. weaker than its prior reading of 7. Credit Suisse China: Growth slowed to 7. Fixed asset investment rose by 20.2% yoy in May. On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis.7% yoy. retail sales growth was 1.68% mom in June.7% in the month. though retail sales improved slightly 25 China: Industrial production (%yoy.26% mom (sa) in June. IP grew by 9. below the 20. retail sales grew by 11.15% mom seen in the previous month and the average monthly sequential growth of 0. stronger than the 1.9% yoy. Exhibit 2: Headline growth slowed.2% yoy.6% yoy.9% yoy. retail sales grew by 12. weaker than the 20.RHS 35 40 14 13 12 Real GDP Growth( %yoy) Real GDP Growth(% SAAR) 11 10 9 15 30 25 10 20 8 7 6 5 5 15 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Sep-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Source: NBS. In real terms.4%. On a sequential basis. FAI expanded by 20. Sequentially. Retail sales accelerated to 13. For the first half of the year. For 1H13 as a whole. the economy expanded by 1.LHS China: Retail Sales (%yoy. IP grew by 0.9% yoy expected by the Bloomberg consensus and its prior reading of 12. with an annualised growth rate of 7.5% yoy in 2Q13 3Q09 4Q09 2010 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2011 2Q11 Industrial production for June grew by 8. In real terms.7% qoq.15 July 2013 Headline growth slowed China’s headline GDP growth was at 7. sequential growth is a surprise Exhibit 3: Both industrial production and FAI growth weakened in the quarter. 3m mav) . FAI grew by 1. the economy grew by 7.3% yoy growth seen in the previous month.5% yoy in 2Q13.1% yoy for the first half of the year.0% SAAR. Credit Suisse 2 .3%.8%.51% mom (sa). lower than 2012’s annual growth of 7. 3m mav) . For the first half of the year.43% mom (sa) in May. This is in line with market expectations. stronger than the 12.LHS 20 China: Fixed asset investment (%yoy. 3Q11 4Q11 2012 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 Source: NBS. slightly weaker than the average monthly sequential growth of 0. stronger than the 1.1% yoy and that of 9. but slightly stronger than our projection of 7.3% yoy in June.2% expected by the market.97% mom seen between January and May. 3m mav) .7% yoy in 1Q13.69% mom seen between January and May.1% yoy for 1H13.

given that banks lent out very little in the second half of June.0 3.15 July 2013 Exhibit 4: June’s headline IP growth slid below 9.9% and 9.0 2.0 11..0 14.0 7.0%.9 12 11 10 5 0 Source: NBS. while the rural population saw 11. Certainly.5% yoy in 2Q13 Jun-13 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Urban disposable income per capita (year-to-date growth.Credit Suisse Exhibit 6: Urban disposable income growth is still above 9. Credit Suisse Source: NBS. more impact could surface in July.4% in real growth for 1H13 and 13.0 14. with the urban population seeing a 9.0 8.0 10.0 13. but still.7% in nominal growth and 11.2% in nominal and real income growth.0 Jun-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Mar-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Feb-13 May-13 May-12 Jun-13 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jan-13 Jun-12 Jul-12 Mar-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Aug-12 May-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: NBS.. the Bloomberg Professional Service. %) 3 .0 12.0 11. respectively.0 Rural cash income per capita (year-to-date growth.0 5. as they seem to indicate that the spikes in SHIBOR and the much tightened credit conditions in June had little impact on production and investment. Credit Suisse Exhibit 7:…while income growth in rural area is still at double digit 17.0 12. during 1H13. %) 2005 2006 Data surprise We were a little surprised by the data.0 8. we surmise that infrastructure investment and inventory rebuild probably slowed down.0% again 25 Exhibit 5: Retail sales growth accelerated in June to beat the expectation for the first time in six months Bloomberg consensus of retail sales growth 16 15 14 13 Retail sales growth (%yoy) Industrial production (% yoy) 20 15 10 8. Credit Suisse May-13 China: Growth slowed to 7.0 9. The good news is that income growth remained robust.0 4.0 9.0 16. That lifted retail sales by 12.0 10.0 13.7% (real yoy) for June. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: NBS.5% in real terms.3% (nominal yoy) and 11.0 6. 15.0 15.1% year-to-date income increase in nominal terms and 6.

we do not expect imminent expansionary policies to boost growth momentum.58 1.7 1038.2 1247.9 0.1 -0.2 3.5 0.8 -1. PBoC.81 15.1 1780.5 1052.9 454.0 860.8 2.2 1.7 0.0 4.2 21.4 1.6 1122.6 1.09 1.1 13. Credit Suisse The government emphasised two points about this set of data: (1) the major economic indicators are within the expected ranges.9 2.0 28.5 0. Beijing does not believe that the current growth momentum is threatening the bottom line of its policy growth target.1 0.5 2.5 14.6 0.7 1.0 -1.1 2.6 3.6 16.6 6.2 522.1 3.3 0.9 2.4 2. As such.0 0.0% yoy by China watchers.26 2.15 2.2 1. as the country embraces the third plenary session of the party congress in October.6 20.1 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.29 2.93 9.0 2.0 2.1 620.79 14.2 2.24 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.19 2. We have no plan to revise our growth forecast. we would expect some form of policy reaction.3 -2.6 1070. annualized Fixed asset investments %mom.1 2.8 15.6 May Apr Mar 7.0 0. China: Growth slowed to 7. sa Headline CPI %mom.0 -2.0 0.5% yoy in 2Q13 4 . Under the leadership of Premier Li.97 3. it seems the government is more reluctant to launch large-scale fiscal stimulus unless absolutely necessary and is more keen to improve the efficiency of current monetary and fiscal policies. seasonally adjusted (sa) %qoq.9 2549. In other words.9 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.4% for 2013.6 2.72 13. sa Retail sales %mom.1 11.27 8.8 14.8 -15.1 15.82 Feb Jan Dec 7.5 1290.2 0.3 -3.43 9.2 703. though the scale would not be comparable to what was launched in 2009.6 622.6 14.4 1.7 13.3 1.86 12.0 6.8 -0.2 -1.0 1.3 1.9 0.1 1.3 0.65 12.2 22.5 0. including providing additional liquidity to local governments in late summer. unless otherwise stated) Real GDP %qoq.5 1.2 1.9 1.9 0.72 9.7 0.6 0.0 -3.5 20.87 9.9 1185.6 -2.0 8.7 20.36 1. and (2) the moderation in growth is a result of pro-active structural adjustment.80 13.2 1.9 1.8 9.5 0.1 14.9 0.3 1.9 1.0 1.6 1.3 19.8 0.3 2.8 4.7 -2.5 0.7 1.4 0.6 667.0 2.4 15. nsa Services CPI %mom.1 -0.6 0. sa Industrial production %mom.1 0.78 14.3 -2.68 13.97 9.3 2.4 1.4 0.1 6.7 7.8 -1. General Administration of Customs.61 12.7 1.1 1.3 0.0 0.2 4.2 0.84 8.2 1. nsa Food CPI %mom.8 505.8 13.5 16.4 14.9 25.0 1.1 0.7 -2.6 3.6 11.1 1.0 -1.9 7.51 8.6 2544.5 2.7 0.9 1.15 July 2013 Exhibit 8: Summary of China’s macroeconomic indicators (% yoy.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 2.37 9.4 -1.0 2.8 0.3 -0.2 0.1 3.2 0.0 1.8 792.1 8.7 -3.9 2.2 2.12 2.8 -0.77 12.2 -2.8 1.9 21.2 Nov Oct Sep 7.6 1072.3 6.2 1625.0 13.7 10.5 1.3 13.8 0.0 0.0 -0.8 1.2 2.38 10.17 1.1 2.8 20.1 22.9 Aug Jul Jun 7.9 540.0 19.6 0.7 1. Still.6 -0.4 2. we believe that growth momentum is probably weaker than the headline suggests and could weaken further amid tightened liquidity conditions.18 2.0 4. currently standing at 7. perceived around 7. nsa PPI Total social financing (RMB bn) New loan (RMB bn) M2 Exports Imports Jun 7. with modest growth deceleration.6 1646.0 20.5 1.1 1.7 21.0 15.2 -0. Should that scenario play out.69 13. That seems to imply that Beijing is in no hurry to boost growth.3 -2.4 1.8 1.7 0.2 0. nsa Non-food CPI %mom.1 2.2 -2.9 0.3 1761.2 1.8 Source: NBS.2 919.4 -0.9 0.6 1.6 3.7 -0.32 9.3 2.8 1.79 14.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 20.0 14.3 1062.3 0.01 10.

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