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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 8, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Thursday| August 8, 2013

Highlights
German Industrial Production increased by 2.4 percent in June June. Japans Current Account was at a surplus of 0.65 trillion Yen in June. French Trade Balance was at deficit of 4.4 billion Euros in prior month. Asian markets are trading higher today ahead of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy meeting and Chinese Trade Balance data. It is expected that BOJ will keep its policy unchanged in todays s meeting and more stimulus can be estimated over next ten months from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda as their main target is to achieve inflation of 2 percent.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last Prev. day

as on August 7, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5519.1 18664.9 15470.67 1690.9 16838.2 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 104.37 1286.10 19.52

-0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.9 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -0.9 0.2 -1.0

-3.9 -3.5 -0.2 3.6 2.2 2.4 21.3 -0.1 -0.6 -1.9 -0.5

-5.0 -3.4 0.1 3.6 9.1 4.3 28.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.6 -2.1

4.5 2.1 17.5 20.7 14.8 2.0 -0.8 66.3 11.4 -20.1 -30.5

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.4 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of favorable economic data from previous sessions showing signs of economic growth. However, positive economic data has led to expectations that the Fed will pullback its stimulus measures coupled with rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 81. 81.27 and closed at 81.32 on Wednesday.

7020.00 102.09

0.3 0.0

1.9 9.5

-10.5 5.1

-6.7 2.6

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated preciated on the back of weak global and domestic markets coupled with strength in the DX in early part of the trade. Further, heavy dollar demand from importers also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of expectations that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will ease its norms for External Commercial Borrowing (ECB). Additionally, selling of dollars from central banks along with expectations that RBI will come up w with some measures prevented sharp fall in the currency. The Rupee touched an intra-day low of 61.461 and closed at 61.20 on Wednes Wednesday. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs. Rs.1406 crores th ($230.44 million) as on 7 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.67498.40 crores ($12,716.20 716.20 million) till 7 August 2013. Outlook day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on From the intra-day mixed note as strength in the DX will lead to depreciation depreciation. Additionally, dollar demand from importers and oil firms will exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can be seen as a result of recovery in global market sentiments coupled with expectations ctations of measures to be taken by RBI.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 7, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.32 61.20 61.53 61.52

-0.4 -0.7 0.11 0.09

-0.3 -0.6 1.56 1.56

-3.5 -0.9 1.56 1.56

2.3 -9.7 11.35 11.34

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for August 8, 2013 Support 61.20/60.90 Resistance 61.70/62.0

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Currencies Daily Report


Thursday| August 8, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with favorable economic data from the region. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as result of weak global markets sentiments sentiments. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3345 and closed at 1.3 1.3336 against the dollar on Wednesday. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 4.4 billion Euros in June as against a previous deficit of 5.7 billion Euros a month ago. German Industrial Production increased sed by 2.4 percent in June from earlier decline of 0.8 percent in earlier month. Outlook In todays session, Euro is expected to trade higher on the back of recovery in the global market sentiments. Further, expectations of favorable German Trade Balance data will support an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside side in the currency would be capped as a result of strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 81.50/81.30 82.0/82.30 valid for August 8, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 7, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3336 81.62 81.8 81.8

0.2 -0.9 0.24 0.25

0.3 -0.9 4.90 4.98

3.6 -4.5 4.90 4.98

7.9 -16.3 19.31 19.32

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on August 7, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.9 percent yesterday taking cues from weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in currency was capped as a result of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day day high of 1.553 and closed at 1.5487 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade higher on the back of recovery in global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in the currency will be prevented or reversal can be seen on account of strength in the DX DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 8, 2013 Support 94.70/94.40 Resistance 95.20/95.40

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5487 94.864 94.98

0.91 1.48 0.67

1.8 2.74 4.68

3.6 5.76 4.68

-1.1 10.31 9.83

95.00

0.64

4.73

4.73

9.88

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report


Thursday| August 8, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated around 1.5 percent in the yesterdays trade on account rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the currency. The Yen touched an intra intraday high of 96.30 and closed at 96.32 against dollar on Wednesday. Japans Current Account was at a surplus of 0.65 trillion Yen in June as against a earlier surplus of 0.62 trillion Yen a month ago. Bank Lending was at 2 percent in July from 1.9 percent in June. Outlook meeting has Rise in Japanese equities ahead of the Bank of Japans policy mee lead to decline in demand for the Yen. On the back of this, we expect the Yen to depreciate in todays trading session. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 8, 2013 Support 62.90/62.70 Resistance 63.40/63.60

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 7, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

96.32 0.634 63.25 63.24

-1.5 2.29 1.00 0.98

-1.6 1.93 4.41 4.43

-4.6 6.50 4.41 4.43

22.9 -9.52 -10.26 -10.29

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 8, 2013


Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Current Account Monetary Policy Statement Monetary Policy Statement German Trade Balance BOJ Press Conference ECB Monthly Bulletin Unemployment Claims

Japan Japan China Euro Japan Euro US

5:20am Tentative Tentative 11:30am Tentative 1:30pm 6:00pm

0.65T -

0.73T 26.2B 15.2B 336K

0.62T 27.1B 14.1B 326K

High High High Medium High Medium High

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