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Risk Management Analysis with the help of Lightning Strike mapping around 500 k-v Grid Station using

Artificial Intelligence Technique.

Kamran Hafeez
Electrical Department. IQRA National University Peshawar, Pakistan
Abstract Lightning has been one of the major problems for insulation design of power systems and it is still one of the main causes of forced outages in transmission and distribution lines. It is necessary to protect the power apparatus from over volts in electric system caused by lightning over voltages. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as expert system (ES), fuzzy logic (FL), and artificial neural network (ANN), and genetic algorithm (GA), techniques can solve complex engineering problems which are difficult to solve by traditional methods. This research focuses on (AI) technique i.e. fuzzy logic on mapping the lightning strike area around 500 k-v Grid station based on; level of strike (high, medium, low) and category of lightning (positive cloud-to-ground, negative cloud-to-ground, flash).Predefined areas around 500k-v Sheikh muhammadi Grid station Peshawar is chosen as a case study. This research will be helpful in risk management and lightning protection analysis by determining the area and characterizing the lightning strikes around the Grid station. Keywords-Grid Station; LightningStrike; Artificial Intelligence; Fuzzy Logic.

Sheheryar Khan
Electrical Department. IQRA National University Peshawar, Pakistan



Lightning is always one of major cause of over head line Faults. Around 5% to 10% of the lightning-caused faults are thought to result in permanent damage to power system equipment. Lightning has a direct relation with the insulation design of Power Systems and it is main reason of outages of transmission and distribution lines. A complete awareness of the parameters of lightning strokes is essential for the prediction of the severity of the transient voltages generated across power apparatus either by a direct stroke to the power line/apparatus, or by an indirect stroke. However, no two lightning strokes are the same. Due to lightning traveling waves are generated in the system. These traveling waves cause the temporary increase in voltage in the transmission line system. The increase in voltage is harmful for the insulator of lines and devices connected to the transmission line. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze such increase in voltage in order to design the surge arrester (or the

insulator) suitable for the investment, the good performance of the system and the reliability of transmission line system. In [1] it is written that between 1998 and 2004, 81 direct lightning strokes to phase conductors were observed and this number is based on the first stroke for multi stroke events and excludes some data for which parameters could not be estimated. Mostly Lightning strikes were recorded in the summer Season. Under these circumstances it is necessary for utility companies to provide smooth transfer of electrical Power and reduced the number of outages. The power apparatus is protected from over volts in electric system, namely lighting over voltages & switching over voltages. Lighting over voltages is a natural phenomenon where as switching over voltages are produced in the system itself by the connection &disconnection of circuit breakers contacts or due to occurrences of faults. It is highly possible that Lightning strokes can hit towers, conductors or any object thus producing abnormal current/voltage waves along conductors (phase and/or shield wires) as well as along steel towers. Due to these phenomena, over voltages are produced and electric arcs (between two or more conductors as well as between phase conductors and the tower structure) may appear, if insulation breakdown voltage is reached. Sometimes Back flashover can occurs when lightning stroke terminates on the overhead ground wire or tower. A stroke that so terminates forces currents to flow down the tower and out on the ground wires. Thus voltages are built up across the line insulation. If these voltages equal or exceed the line critical flashover voltage (CFO), flashover occurs. It is true that majority of lightning strokes are terminated on shield wires rather than phase conductors [1]. There are three types of Lighting discharge (i) cloud to ground (ii) cloud-to-cloud (inter cloud) (iii) intra cloud. Cloud- toground donated as C2G happens when the charge at the cloud strike the ground surface. About 25% of lightning strikes are C2G. Lightning strike can be categorized in to three different types which are positive lighting (+C2G) Negative lighting (-C2G) and Flash [2].

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Fuzzy logic with rule based expert system is now used as a powerful tool for those events that is simple in computation. The rules of this AI technique are based on modeling human experience and expertise. A membership function provides a measure of the degree of similarity of an element in the fuzzy subset (Mendel, 1995) [3]. The basic block diagram of fuzzy logic system is shown in Fig. 1.

Thunder storm/Lightning data available of the study area from Pakistan Meteorological department is given in Table .I.
TABLE I. Average Number of Days with Thunder storms Annua l 32 J F M 3 A 5 M 5 J 3 J 4 A 5 S 3 O N 2 1 D -

In [2] it is written that Lightning strike can be categorized into three different types which are positive lightning (+C2 G), negative lightning (-C2G) and flash. Thus the main input is the current flow of lightning strike. The value is between -180kA and 180 kA .
TABLE II. Classification of Lighting Input current (A) <0 Figure 1. Fuzzy Logic System =0 >0 Category of Lighting Negative Lighting (-C2G) Flash Positive Lighting(-C2G)

The objectives of this study are to prepare a fuzzy logic model which can be used for the risk management analysis of area around 500Kv Sheikh Muhammadi Grid station against lightning strokes. Based the latitudes and longitudes fuzzy logic model will classify the map in different regions and approximate the level of risk in different regions of the map also using this data we can develop a lightning strike area map based on the level of strikes (high, medium, Low) and types of lighting (Positive -cloud -to ground, Negative cloud to ground, Flash). MATLAB/fuzzy logic toolbox is used to get the desired results. II. STUDY AREA A satellite view of 500 KV Sheikh Muhammadi Grid station is shown in Fig below having Location: Latitude: 33.932N and Longitude: 71. 546E.



There are nine predefined regions around 500 K-V Sheikh Muhammad Grid station as shown in Table.III.
TABLE III. Predefined Areas



A1 1N 99E







Figure 3.500k-v Sheikh Muhammadi Grid Station

There are different types of AI-based techniques, artificial neural networks (ANNs), fuzzy logic, fuzzy-NNs, genetic algorithms (GAs) etc. Fuzzy logic systems can be used for non linear function approximations and are more suitable if approximations are being performed as compared to Neural Networks [4]. Among various combinations of methodologies in soft computing, the one that has highest visibility at this juncture is that of fuzzy logic and neuro computing, leading to neuro-

Figure 2. 500k-v Sheikh Muhammadi Grid Station

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fuzzy systems. Within fuzzy logic, such systems play a particularly important role in the induction of rules from observations.

Output membership function is displayed in Fig (5).

TABLE IV.Fuzzy rules for region classification No Rule 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 of Latitude A1 A1 A1 A2 A2 A2 A3 A3 A3 Input Longitude B1 B2 B3 B1 B2 B3 B1 B2 B3 Output Region South West(SW) South(S) South East(SE) West(W) Central(C) East(E) North West(NW) North(N) North East(NE) Figure 5 .Output membership function for Fuzzy Logic Technique



A.Calculation of Risk Factor If the Grid station location is in South West (SW) and its Value is between 0 and 0.5 then any lightning strike close to South West region will be having high risk factor as shown in Fig (7) .

A. Classification of Region When the Latitude is A1 and Longitude is B2, the output is declared as region south or (S).

Figure 6. Risk Factor

Figure 3. Input Variable Latitude

The input membership function for Longitude is displayed in figure (4) below.

Figure 7. Grid station location South West

On the basis of risk factor results are shown in fig (8) below.

Figure 9. Risk factor calculation result

Figure 4. . Input variable Longitude

Figure 8. Risk factor calculation results

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REFERENCES B.Lightning Strike Area Map The number of lightning incidence corresponds to their location on the basis of samples of classified data are being marked on Google map as shown in fig (9) below.
TABLE V. Samples of Classified Data Latitud e Longitu de Current( A) Level of current Type of Lightni ng -C2G -C2G -C2G +C2G -C2G Reg ion Risk Fact or [1] G. Radhika, Dr.M.Suryakala and V. G.Soujanya, Effective Placement of Surge Arrestor During Lightning, IJCCIS Computer Communication, vol. 2 .No.1, ISSN: 09761349 July Dec 2010. M.K Hassan, R Z Abdul Rahman ,A..CHE..SOH, Lightning Strike Mapping for Peninsular Malaysia using Artificial Intelligence Techniques, Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology 31st December 2011. Vol. 34 No.2 D. Saxena, K.S. Verma and S.N. Singh, Power quality event classification: an overview and key issues,International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology Vol. 2, No. 3, 2010, pp. 186-199. Fiorenzo Filippetti, Giovanni Franceschini, Carla Tasson,, Recent Developments of Inductio Motor Drives Fault Diagnosis Using AI Techniques,IEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics Vol.47 No.5 October 2000.




335620. 30 335552. 45 335506. 95 335543. 74 335531. 17 335609. 12 335607. 32 335520. 63 335544. 59

713243.7 7 713340.9 1 713246.3 8 713150.5 4 713212.5 9 713311.7 1 713205.9 5 7159.27

-2450 -3280 -7880 1870 -4110

Low Low Medium Low Low


Low High High High Very High medi um Low Medi um Low





180000 -4180

High Low

+C2G -C2G


713241.3 6




These results are mapped into Google earth which shows the location of lightning strikes and their risk factors corresponds to the location of 500 k-v Grid station.

REFERENCES Figure 9. Lightning area Map

978-1-4673-4886-7/12/$31.00 2012 IEEE