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**041 Spring 2005 Final Exam
**

Tuesday, May 17, 1:30–4:30 p.m.

**DO NOT TURN THIS EXAM OVER UNTIL
**

YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

• You have 3 hours to complete the exam. • Write your solutions in the exam booklet. We will not consider any work not in the exam booklet. • This exam has three problems, each with multiple parts, that are not necessarily in order of diﬃculty. • You may give an answer in the form of an arithmetic expression (sums, products, ratios, �� factorials) of numbers that could be evaluated using a calculator. Expressions like 8 3 � k or 5 k=0 (1/2) are also ﬁne. • A correct answer does not guarantee full credit and a wrong answer does not guarantee loss of credit. You should concisely indicate your reasoning and show all relevant work. The grade on each problem is based on our judgment of your level of understanding as reﬂected by what you have written. • This is a closed-book exam except for three handwritten, 2-sided 8.5x11 formula sheets plus a calculator. • Be neat! If we can’t read it, we can’t grade it. • At the end of the exam, turn in your solutions along with this exam (this piece of paper).

(b) (7 points) Evaluate P(|Yn − E[Yn ]| ≥ ) exactly in terms of Φ.0. and your TA’s name on the front of the booklet. . .0. .i.Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6. and /σ = 2. . be an i.d. /σ = 1. give an upper bound for P(|Yn − E[Yn ]| ≥ ). (3 points) Problem 1. .. 2. your recitation instructor’s name. (a) (6 points) Using the Chebyshev inequality. the CDF of the standard normal random variable. (d) (7 points) For n > k .5. X2 .431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Spring 2005) Write your name. (c) (6 points) Hence compute P(|Yn − E[Yn ]| ≥ ) and its Chebyshev upper bound for /σ = 0. Further. let �n =1 Xi √ Yn = i n for n = 1. ﬁnd the linear least squares estimate of Yn given Yk = y and its mean squared error.041/6. . (26 points) Let X1 . Page 2 of 4 . sequence of normal random variables with mean µ and variance σ 2 .

(a) (5 points) What is the average time before they see the ﬁrst vehicle? (b) (5 points) What is the probability that the ﬁrst vehicle they see is a bus. till they meet again at Harvard Square. at 7:00 a. i. its PDF is fIT (t) = λ1 e−λ1 t for t ≥ 0. For any bus that arrives at 77 Mass. and what is the probability that the ﬁrst vehicle they see is a taxi? In a taxi. i. Let Y be the number of minutes from their departure from 77 Mass.e. is an independent exponential random variable with parameter λ1 . i. is an independent exponential random variable with parameter λ2 . Find E[Y ]. Ave. in fact. its PDF is fDB (t) = µ2 e−µ2 t for t ≥ 0. (e) (5 points) If they stay at 77 Mass. what is the probability that they will see k fast buses before they see k slow buses? Page 3 of 4 . and arrive at Harvard Square X minutes later. the travel time to Harvard Square. Suppose Joe and Harry arrive at 77 Mass. two diﬀerent kinds of buses: fast buses and slow buses.. in minutes. There are. Ave.e. On the other hand.e. The interarrival time of taxis. is an an independent exponential random variable with parameter µ2 . and it is a slow bus with probability 1 − p. (c) (7 points) Suppose Joe and Harry arrive at 77 Mass. Ave. (36 points) Two kinds of vehicles go to Harvard Square from 77 Mass. Ave. in minutes. while the interarrival time of buses. (d) (7 points) Suppose that a taxi and a bus arrive simultaneously.. its PDF is fDT (t) = µ1 e−µ1 t for t ≥ 0. in minutes. Find the transform of X . its PDF is fIB (t) = λ2 e−λ2 t for t ≥ 0.m.m. Ave. is an independent exponential random variable with parameter µ1 .: taxis and buses. Whether a bus is fast or slow is independent of everything else. take the ﬁrst vehicle that passes. and Joe takes the taxi while Harry takes the bus. at 7:00 a. the travel time to Harvard Square.. how many fast buses will they see on average? (f) (7 points) If they stay indeﬁnitely.041/6.e. Ave.Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6. it is a fast bus with probability p. for l minutes.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Spring 2005) Problem 2. i.. in minutes. in a bus..

regardless of whether a piece of cheese was found on the previous turn.041/6. Each door is chosen with equal probability on each turn. What is the expected number of turns before the mouse eats a piece of cheese? (c) (7 points) Suppose no cheese was found on the previous turn. whilst if cheese was found on the previous turn and a diﬀerent door is chosen on the current turn. At each “turn”. What is the probability that. (a) (7 points) If you observe the mouse’s behavior over 1000 turns. If no cheese was found on the previous turn. the mouse gets to open one of the three doors and eat a piece of cheese behind the door if one is present.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Spring 2005) Problem 3.Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6. What is the expected number of turns before the mouse eats n pieces of cheese? (d) (7 points) Suppose cheese was found on the previous turn. Using the Central Limit Theorem. it will again be eating a piece of cheese from behind door number 1? Page 4 of 4 . (e) (7 points) You look into the cage and observe the mouse eating a piece of cheese from behind door number 1. If cheese was found on the previous turn and the same door is chosen on the current turn. in approximately what fraction of turns do you expect the mouse to eat a piece of cheese? (b) (7 points) Suppose no cheese was found on the previous turn. approximate the probability that the number of turns before the mouse eats 100 pieces of cheese exceeds 152. if you observe the mouse three turns later. then there is a probability of 1 that cheese will be found. (35 points) A hungry mouse is trapped in a cage with three doors. then there is a probability of 0 that cheese will be found. there is a probability of 3/4 that cheese will be found behind each door on the current turn.

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