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Homicide Rates in El Paso, Brownsville and Laredo Texas between 1985 and

2011
J. Creechan, Toronto
The following data describing homicide rates in three Texas Border Cities is from the UCR online
access tool, and graphs were generated by J.Creechan.

Crime reported by El Paso Police Dept, Texas
Violent crime in El Paso Texas (UCR online access tool)
Homicide
1
Rate
Year
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1

4.6
9.5
5.1
6.2
8.0
6.6
9.3
8.2
8.5
7.8
6.3
5.0
3.9
2.7
2.2
3.5
3.5
2.4
3.6
1.9
2.3
2.1
2.8
2.8
1.9
0.8
2.4

Population

Violent
crime total

Murder &
nonnegligent
manslaughter

Forcible
rape

Robbery

Aggravated
assault

474,870

3,662

22

181

993

2,466

483,925

4,734

46

198

1,039

3,451

494,954

4,332

25

219

969

3,119

501,544

4,505

31

242

1,088

3,144

515,607

4,722

41

241

1,139

3,301

515,342

5,111

34

256

1,381

3,440

526,339

5,616

49

265

1,484

3,818

535,655

5,826

44

272

1,610

3,900

554,515

6,109

47

281

1,561

4,220

565,183

5,369

44

233

1,086

4,006

590,215

4,948

37

242

1,076

3,593

602,951

5,138

30

245

1,195

3,668

612,754

4,849

24

225

1,066

3,534

624,510

4,374

17

241

823

3,293

623,888

4,280

14

185

715

3,366

563,662

4,396

20

188

731

3,457

576,453

4,386

20

203

775

3,388

588,750

3,892

14

221

575

3,082

586,392

3,502

21

219

581

2,681

593,924

3,242

11

201

570

2,460

601,839

2,621

14

301

448

1,858

615,553

2,422

13

300

503

1,606

616,029

2,574

17

258

472

1,827

612,374

2,825

17

181

456

2,171

618,812

2,830

12

182

452

2,184

649,121

2,861

5

179

479

2,198

662,780

2,858

16

217

464

2,161

Homicide Rate = (Murder & non-negligent homicide/population) * 100,000
Computed by J. Creechan — August 13, 2013 — Page 1 of 7

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Crime reported by Laredo, Texas
Population

Violent
crime total

Murder and
nonnegligent
manslaughter

Forcible
rape

Robbery

Aggravated
assault

Year

MurderRate

1985

13.48

111,268

600

15

40

138

407

1986

17.64

113,390

600

20

7

139

434

1987

9.34

117,811

555

11

8

121

415

1988

12.50

120,027

763

15

8

178

562

1989

8.74

125,862

1,138

11

6

156

965

1990

11.39

122,899

750

14

17

158

561

1991

11.95

125,521

879

15

14

173

677

1992

16.44

127,742

904

21

14

158

711

1993

15.09

139,194

1,053

21

7

163

862

1994

16.92

141,872

994

24

6

208

756

1995

9.17

152,736

1,107

14

22

174

897

1996

7.05

156,032

1,040

11

27

242

760

1997

6.94

158,569

813

11

56

193

553

1998

6.34

173,484

836

11

68

219

538

1999

4.49

178,314

829

8

57

167

597

2000

5.66

176,576

972

10

65

181

716

2001

4.43

180,583

1,121

8

39

200

874

2002

3.80

184,435

1,107

7

58

203

839

2003

14.91

194,516

1,317

29

55

257

976

2004

7.47

200,805

1,088

15

52

220

801

2005

8.71

206,555

1,054

18

64

246

726

2006

10.25

214,670

1,198

22

96

266

814

2007

4.52

221,253

1,281

10

81

325

865

2008

4.49

222,870

1,357

10

78

311

958

2009

7.49

226,944

1,294

17

73

309

895

2010

3.81

236,091

1,142

9

78

209

846

2011

4.56

241,059

1,120

11

76

215

818

Computed by J. Creechan — August 13, 2013 — Page 2 of 7

Violent Crime reported by Brownsville Police Dept, Texas
Violent
Murder and
Homicide
crime
nonnegligent
Year
Rate
Population
total
manslaughter
1985
9.19
97,970
995
9
1986
6.07
98,783
1,301
6
1987
7.78
102,765
1,265
8
1988
8.61
104,579
1,404
9
1989
13.28
105,458
727
14
1990
13.14
98,962
773
13
1991
18.00
99,990
822
18
1992
15.00
99,990
874
15
1993
15.76
107,838
1,097
17
1994
10.92
109,912
920
12
1995
6.09
115,029
817
7
1996
9.36
117,511
1,151
11
1997
6.70
119,421
1,271
8
1998
10.20
137,252
904
14
1999
2.86
139,868
783
4
2000
4.29
139,722
912
6
2001
4.90
142,893
809
7
2002
0.69
145,941
806
1
2003
5.24
152,764
757
8
2004
0.63
158,801
851
1
2005
2.44
163,877
903
4
2006
2.90
172,239
867
5
2007
2.82
177,090
880
5
2008
2.26
176,893
634
4
2009
2.23
179,491
454
4
2010
4.00
175,023
563
7
2011
0.56
178,706
500
1

Forcible
rape
11
24
70
84
53
36
31
29
28
31
26
22
41
24
26
29
27
32
42
48
53
46
21
26
26
31
37

Robbery
133
155
127
205
155
172
224
198
281
268
204
231
217
168
166
181
180
181
164
162
128
168
207
173
152
165
109

Computed by J. Creechan — August 13, 2013 — Page 3 of 7

Aggravated
assault
842
1,116
1,060
1,106
505
552
549
632
771
609
580
887
1,005
698
587
696
595
592
543
640
718
648
647
431
272
360
353

El Paso Homicide Rate by Year (UCR)
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Computed by J. Creechan — August 13, 2013 — Page 4 of 7

2010

Osiel Cardenas Guillen was arrested in Matamoros in March 2003 and imprisoned in Mexico in Almoloya de
Juarez (Altiplano aka La Palma)
At the time he was still "close to los Zetas" - and in fact had sought them out due to his obsessive"paranoia"
about being betrayed from within his ranks. He trusted los Zetas (especially Guzman Decena) - but had little
confidence in any of the other people who were originally part of the cartel he inherited from Juan Garcia
Abrego.
Ricardo Ravelo (El Narco en Mexico: Historia y historias de una guerra) describes Cárdenal Guillen's fanatic
obsession with "rooting our enemies" and uncovering those who wanted to kill him. His nickname "El
Mataamigos" was well deserved (especially related to his hunting down of Chava Gomez in order to seize
control of the cartel.

Computed by J. Creechan — August 13, 2013 — Page 5 of 7

Cárdenas Guillen was running things and ordering hits against his enemies even while in prison (pages 20810) and there was a wave of violence throughout the State.
According to Ravelo " Entre los años 2003y 2006, Osiel controla la prisión e incluso puede planear
ejecuciones dentro de la carcél. A él se atribuye, por ejemplo, el asesinato de Arturo Guzmán Loera, el Pollos,
hermano del Chapo". (210)
… Estos hechos acelerado aún más los planes del gobierno para extraditar a Osiel Cardenas a los Estados
Unidos, donde tenía cuentas pendientes con la justicia"
This homicide data was downloaded on a whim… but it's clear that something very different occurred in
Laredo during the years (2003-2007). A jump in homicides on the American side is NOT evident in El Pasoeven though el Chapo Guzman had arranged the execution of Vicente Carrillo Fuente's younger brother (El
Niño del Oro) in September 2004 and unleased a bloody war between the Sinaloa and Juarez cartels. This
empirical "spike" in Laredo made me wonder about a "reason" it happened there and not in El Paso. A
ll I did here was graphically impose two important facts about Osiel Cárdenas Guillen – and it is empirically
interesting that the Laredo TX spike corresponded to those years between his imprisonment and his
extradition. As you probably know, the Gulf cartel (from Juan Abrego Garcia onward) seems to have always
had "American ties" and many of its members were actually dual citizens or American.
The numbers represented in this period are too few to talk about statistical significance and certainty. There
is not a normal distribution when the numbers are this small, and analysts must be very careful about
jumping to conclusions. But, the spike in the homicide rate is unusual and it does happen during a period
when Osiel was in prison and ordering hits, and it stopped when he lost access to his "cell phone".
By the way, Ricardo Ravelo's observations are taken from the testimony of a protected witness who used to
be Osiel's "valet" and "right hand man". His apodo in Mexico is El Paquito, but the protected witness name is
Rufino.

Computed by J. Creechan — August 13, 2013 — Page 6 of 7

Computed by J. Creechan — August 13, 2013 — Page 7 of 7