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5-7:

The central limit theorem and the standard errors of the mean and of the proportion are based on the premise that the samples selected are chosen with replacement. However, in virtually all survey research, sampling is conducted without replacement from populations that are of a finite size, N. In these cases, particularly when the sample size, n, is not small in comparison with the population size, N (i.e., more than 5% of the population is sampled), so that n/N > 0.05, a finite population correction factor (represented by fpc) is used to define both the standard error of the mean and the standard error of the proportion. The finite population correction factor is expressed as shown in Equation 5.15.

FINITE POPULATION CORRECTION FACTOR fpc = where: n = sample size N = population size n N N1 (5.15)

STANDARD ERROR OF THE MEAN FOR FINITE POPULATIONS X = n n N N1 (5.16)

STANDARD ERROR OF THE PROPORTION FOR FINITE POPULATIONS Ps =

p(1 p) n

n N N1

(5.17)

In Equation 5.15, observe that the numerator is always smaller than the denominator, since n is greater than 1 for all practical cases. Therefore, the correction factor is less than 1. Because this finite population correction factor is multiplied by the standard error, the standard error becomes smaller when corrected. This means that more precise estimates are obtained. The application of the finite population correction factor is illustrated in Examples 5.13 and 5.14.

EXAMPLE 5.13 USING THE FINITE POPULATION CORRECTION FACTOR WITH THE MEAN

In the cereal-filling example, a sample of 25 cereal boxes was selected from a filling process. Suppose that 2,000 boxes (i.e., the population) are filled on this particular day. Using the finite population correction factor, determine the probability of obtaining a sample whose mean is below 365 grams.

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CD MATERIAL

SOLUTION Using the finite population correction factor, = 15, n = 25, and N = 2,000, so that: X = n N N1 2,000 25 15 = 25 2,000 1 n = 30.988 = 2.982 The probability of obtaining a sample whose mean is between 365 and 368 grams is computed as follows: Z = X X X 3 X = = 2.982 = 1.01 n

From Table E.2, we can tell that the area below 365 grams is 0.1562. It is evident in this example that the use of the finite population correction factor has a very small effect on the standard error of the mean and the subsequent area under the normal curve because the sample size (i.e., n = 25 boxes) is only 1.25% of the population size (i.e., N = 2,000 boxes). I

EXAMPLE 5.14 USING THE FINITE POPULATION CORRECTION FACTOR WITH THE PROPORTION

In the example concerning multiple banking accounts, suppose there are a total of 1,000 different depositors at the bank. Using the finite population correction factor, determine the probability of obtaining a sample whose proportion is less than 0.30. SOLUTION Using the finite population correction factor with the previous sample of n = 200 results in the following: X = Nn n N 1 (0.40)(0.60) = 200

200 1,000 1,000 1 0.24 800 = = 0.00120.801 200 999 = (0.0346)(0.895) = 0.031 With the standard error of the sample proportion of 0.031 from Equation 5.13, we get Z = 0.10/0.031 = 3.23. From Table E.2, we see that the appropriate area below ps = 0.30 is 0.00062. In this example, the use of the finite population correction factor has a moderate effect on the standard error of the proportion and on the area under the normal curve because the sample size is 20% (i.e., n/N = 0.20) of the population. I

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Learning the Basics

5.81 Given that N = 80 and n = 10 and the sample is obtained without replacement, determine the finite population correction factor. 5.82 Which of the following finite population factors will have a greater effect in reducing the standard error one based on a sample of size 100 selected without replacement from a population of size 400 or one based on a sample of size 200 selected without replacement from a population of size 900? Explain. 5.83 Given that N = 60 and n = 20 and the sample is obtained with replacement, should the finite population correction factor be used? Explain. standard deviation = 0.40 minute. If a random sample of 16 customers is selected without replacement from a population of 500 customers: a. what is the probability that the average time spent per customer will be at least 3 minutes? b. there is an 85% chance that the sample mean will be below how many minutes? 5.86 Historically, 10% of a large shipment of machine parts are defective. If random samples of 400 parts are selected without replacement from a shipment that included 5,000 machine parts, what proportion of the samples will have: a. between 9% and 10% defective parts? b. fewer than 8% defective parts? 5.87 Historically, 93% of the deliveries of an overnight mail service arrive before 10:30 the morning after they are sent. If random samples of 500 deliveries are selected without replacement from a population that consisted of 10,000 deliveries, what proportion of the samples will have: a. between 93% and 95% of the deliveries arriving before 10:30 the following morning? b. more than 95% of the deliveries arriving before 10:30 the following morning?

5.84 The diameter of Ping-Pong balls manufactured at a large factory is expected to be approximately normally distributed with a mean of 1.30 inches and a standard deviation of 0.04 inch. If many random samples of 16 Ping-Pong balls are selected from a population of 200 Ping-Pong balls without replacement, what proportion of the sample means would be between 1.31 and 1.33 inches? 5.85 The amount of time a bank teller spends with each customer has a population mean = 3.10 minutes and

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